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Alien-Homepage.de- Earth quake statistics

Alien-Homepage.de- Earth quake statistics- last update: SEPTEMBER 01 - 2011- --copyright: reserved

please be patient, as this page will need some tome to load , especially if you use elder machines!

 

 

SUN SPOT ACTIVITY ARCHIVE AUGUST 2011

click here to the archive directory for 2011

 

 

What you find on these related pages:

> STATISTIC RESEARCH ON THE RELATION BETWEEN SOLAR FEATURES/ ACTIVITIES TO EARTHQUAKES AND VOLCANISM AND OTHER CLIMATICAL EFFECTS

>EXPERIMENTAL "2 DAYS EARTHQUAKE AND VOLCANISM FORECAST" PROJECT BASED ON SOLAR ACTIVITY, resp these evaluation-

click here to get to the latest reports of the current month/year

 

SUN SPOTS EARTHQUAKE AND VOLCANISM/ ARCHIVE- 2011:

This page had to be divided into monthly sections due to the high data load

click on the month symbols to get to the specific pages of 2011:

2011
< click on the buttom left as no monthly pages were made for 2010 yet
                         
                         
                         

 

alien-homepage.de / internal links:

click here to get to the main page of this project>

HOME/ NAVIGATION default earthquake time is: UTC (GMT)>
       
       
        tzcon
       
Weathercenter reports and archives with maps, links, videos of earthquake disasters
    reports and archives with maps, links, videos of volcano disasters
ws     << Earthquake Statistics- START- with archives from 2004- 2010
     

image above by: NASA: STEREO ( two satellites - one called "AHEAD" the other: " BEHIND") observe the Sun`s surface from both opposite directions (at an ankle of 90 degrees to the line ferom Sun to Earth). The live feed is no more available. NASA claims to have problems with transmission of both stallites data streams and problems when processing the images. You tube user claim, NASA would censor the publications , since they hade discovered strange objects on the edges of the images ( click here for a youtube video that shows those strange objects )

NEW on my pages: volcano- earthquake and disaster maps:

on my regional maps you can find the current volcanic activites-updated weekly on Thursdays- and many more information

Kamchatka peninsula and Aleutian islands
Japan, Mariana Islands- Kyril islands
Indonesia and Philippines
Australia and Southern Pacific
Northern America
Central America and Mexico
South America- Northern part
South America- Southern part
Africa and Arabic peninsula
Europe and Western Asia

 

TRANSLATOR use the new improved Google translator for any site translations>>>  
NEW: VISIT my new site on Volcano activities ; begun in Oct 2010! On this page I want to create a timetable with worldwide volcano activities in 2010 and 2011. The site will also contain a list of volcanoes , a volcano map and other useful informations such as links to special reports or webcams: >just click here>> volcanoe activity timetable 2010/11
you must add 1 hour to the event dates, if you use my time converter as the converter default time is UTC+ 1
 

 

This page had to be divided into monthly sections due to the high data load

 

 

SUN SPOTS EARTHQUAKE AND VOLCANISM

ARCHIVE- 2011:

 

click on the tabs below to open and close the registercards for the single months archives:
AUGUST 2011

 

 

 

1.1.2 LATEST REPORT ON SIGNIFICANT SUN FEATURES AND RELATED EFFECTS ON EARTH :

note: This page only contains report on the current month! > click here to get to the ARCHIVE OF SIGNIFICANT EVENTS IN 2011 -

Symbols, shortcuts and background colors:used in my activity reports:

AUGUST- 04- 2011: IMPORTANT NOTICES ABOUT THE THREE CMES ON THEIR WAY TO EARTH!

-HIGHEST ALERT! THE 3 EARTH DIRECTED CMEs TRIGGERED ON AUGUST- 03- 2011 will very likely have major effects such as high magnitude Earthquakes ( up to M 8.0, volcano eruptions, electric outages disturbances in radio transmissions and other typical CMEeffects!!

Please note also; the values for August 04 (highest magnitude of 7.0) will become valid from that moment on when GOES measures the first typical "solar wind shock" on the geomagnetic field. NOAA predictions on CME arrival times go almost always wrong (they estimate it rather too early) due to the steady changing Sun wind speeds. At the time of this update ( Aug- 04- 18: 15 UTC), the GOES magnetometer showed first fluctuation, still too soft for a CME impact. . But it will take some hours to verify whether this is the first weaker CME. I am observing that! From this real impact time on, I will begin my first 3 hours CME tracking updates. You will find them in my 2 days earthquake tickler ( image above) and on page two of this project pages.

Thanks" Have a good time!

 

* alert level 1: (row is backcolored green): low power Earth- quake above 6.0 with no or only little surface damages
**alert level 2: (row is backcolored yellow): medium power Earth- quake above 6.0- 7.x - with expectable local surface damage
**alert level 3: (row is backcolored red): high power Earth- quake above 7.0- with the possibility of regional wide ranged damages
currently active regions ( SDO/HMI) latest CORONAL HOLES ( highlighted green) map: SDO/ HMI    
SOURCES
solen.info solar terrestrical activity report (SUMMARY OF YESTERDAYS SOLAR DATA

*

o

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST (alien-homepage)

o

EMSC/ USGS: (EARTH QUAKE REPORTS WORLDWIDE)

GOEShp - Magnetometer-(daily gemoagnetic status.)

STEREO SoHO SDO /AIA

LAST UPDATE

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

(YESTERDAY`s SUMMARY by:solen.info

GEOMEGNETIC CORONAL HOLES  

TODAY S SITUATION (Internal):

 

ESTIMATED MAXIMUM MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED SEVERENESS ( 1-3)  

EARTHQUAKES AND VOLCANISM:

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD all 3 days: GOEShp 3 days data plot

IMAGES

IMAGES

SPACE FOR REMARKS
  O

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary)

visit solen.info for more informations   FORECASTS*   GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE AND VOLCANISM SURVEY

SATELLITE DATA

date Solar special reports: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES (CH):   TODAY` S SITUATION magnitudes alert level   Earthquakes and volcanism or other notices real time data and images remarks
AUG- 31- 2011 SUNSPOTS:

NOAA: internal:  

AUGUST 31:

The geomagnetic field was very quiet this morning. Magnetic field intensity is within normal values

 

 

 

.

 

 

2011- September - 01   M 6.1 - SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS - 2011-09-01 06:14 UTC

<< a weak Earth directed CMEon Sun longitude 0 ° (Coronal mass ejection) was observed early this morning on SoHo/ LASCO and STEREO imagery soon after 1:00 UTC and was most likely emmited from AR 11282.

If the current low speed solar wind speed continues, a flank of the CME will arrive on Earth most likely on September o4!

121^

CH 474
YET RECURRENT?
ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
        6.0- 6.5 1

SOLAR FLUX:

EARTH FACING ON > CH 474 SEP- 01/02 2011- September - 02

OIL FOR THE" NEW AMERICAN CENTURY"

EXXON and Russian state petrol company ROSNEFT have signed contract for an exploitation of likely largest ever discovered offshore oil field in the Arctic ocean. The oil field in the Arctic sea is most likely the reminent of previous Earth crust displacements, during those the continental plates around the Arctic sea the last time ( 11.500 B.C) moved into Southern direction. As expected the oil reservoir is the largest subsea reservoir discovered ever and as usually the big four ( Exxon, Chevron/ Rockefella, BP and Shell were successful in achieving exclusive rights for its exploitation, this time with the help of Russians president Vladimir Putin. ( click here to read a full article on BBC.com/ click here to read statement of Greenpeace Swiss- english article not available yet )

First explorations of possible oil reservoirs in the Arctic sea had been started in 2010 by Cain energies ( UK)- just another Trojan horse of the big 4)-) South of Greenland ( Danmark) while there is still larger resistence in the USA to start oil drilling in the Arctic sea North of Alaska which is in US property. But to believe this would avoid any possible damage at least to the US parts of the Arctic parts is rather naive if not egocentric. More then 90 Trillion barrels of oil are believed to be stored below the Arctic still contained by a thick layer of the Earth crust. THINK GLOBAL! >>

109

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED: 324 - 365 km/s

OTHER EFFECTIVE CH:

POS.   6.0- 6.5 1  
PLANETARY A INDEX:

CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs:

01 --- -- --   2011- September - 03  

02

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (appr.)*

EARTH FACING ON.

FLARE- CLASS**

TIME UTC EARTH DIRECTED CMEs: STATUS:/ ARRIVAL: 6.0- 7.5 2

OFFSHORE DRILLING MAIN SAFETY ISSUES:

1. the most important demand to ensure any safe drilling would at least be the prescription of so called " downhole safety valves"additional to the obligatory Blow Out Preventer on the wellhead. This is an additional " backpressure valve" installed where the production line leads into the oil reservoir based on a steel bowl which closes as more tight as more pressure comes from below.These valves are only prescribed in Brasil and Norway yet but proved to be very reiliable first in 2010 when ( most likely caused by minor but meanhwile increasing tectonic movements) three offshore oil rigs near to Norway`s coast had to be evacuated after severe blowouts by an overheating process within rather from below the oil rseservoir, The valves closed as expected: no oil rig fire, noone was hurt and even not any significant oil spill was found during or after the incident. All three oil rigs are back in service again.

2 . Response operations in case of a blowout differently than those taken in 2010 in the GOM are regarded by the most experts as IMPOSSIBLE in the Artic sea. Noone there would be able to stop a severe blowout incident in the arctic sea, esp during then winter month. An incident similar to the one in the GOM in the Artic sea would lead to an catastrophy beyond any imagination! With a content of estimated 90 Trillion barrels of drude oil, this reservoir also is multiple times larger than the large Tiber oilfield discovered in the GOM.

3. what makes myself the greatest concerns related to these explouitation , which has atrackted 3 all 4 great oil multies ( just BP abandoned its offshore projects there and elsewehere ) those have already contracts for lots of oil rigs around, are the increasing tectonic movements in the Artic sea esp along the boundaries of the North American continental plate to the Eurasian one. The big 3 of 4 oil companies will defeat with their money and influence any Geological study as they jet had ignored the fact that also BP drilled in 2010 ( the Macondo well) within an elder tectonic fault ( "Alleghian Florida fault") and the blow out itself was caused by volcanic activities in a debth of 13.500 meter were BP had drilled to already in 2009..

 

image of SDO /AIA Composite of the CME in AR 11282 after 1:00 UTC ( remark you must visit the SDO website and watch the activity as movie version to see the activity)

>>
September - 04- 06:
  11283 75° -90° E SEP- 06     none     6.0- 7.5 2  
  11282 0°- 15° W SEP-01 C2.2 at 11:24 UTC Halo CME on AUG 29 after 1:00 UTC SEP 3-4        
  11281 30° -15° E SEP-02/03 C5.5/1|F 22:46 UTC none     REMARKS:  
  11280 45- 60° W AUG-28     none     The recent Earthquake in Virginia and was an effect of recent movement of the Eurasian and African plate,. it was just a first warning sign for increasing tectonic movements those become more and more evident since 2010 and are most likelyalso related to the retreat of polar ice caps. Visit my regional map of Europe with the latest activites.  
  11277/79 SEP- 01 --   none      
POSSIBLE EFFECTIVE CMEs NOT LISTED BY SPACE WEATHER CENTER > 1

NOTICES

 

 

   
   

AUGUST- 30- 2011

NEW: SURVEY OF POSSIBLY PERMANENT ACTIVE REGIONS AND CH:

 

active region/ former number/ NOAA

appr. heliographic position /SUN

rotating in Earth position:

appr. sideric position:

appr.alignment with EARTH: description/ remarks
  AR 11270/ CH 472 20110830/ 135° W SEP- 13 GEMINI DEC 19- JAN 15 strong activities between Aug- 25 and 29
             
           
  >>

Fears that drilling in the arctic has a high risk for an ultimate and not stoppable petrocalypse have a large background:

Russia has large experience in oil drilling , but same as the European Union combining for decades the big 4 oil tycoons to a petromonopoly called Bilderberg group under their umbrella also Russia will likely remain rather reluctant in controlling at least own monopolies and will rather neglect safety issues in favour of the "grand masters of the lodge".

  O

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary)

visit solen.info for more informations   FORECASTS*   GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE AND VOLCANISM SURVEY

SATELLITE DATA

date Solar special reports: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES (CH):   TODAY` S SITUATION magnitudes alert level   Earthquakes and volcanism or other notices real time data and images remarks
AUG- 30- 2011 SUNSPOTS:

NOAA: internal:  

AUGUST 31:

the geomagnetic filed was quiet this morning with minor vibrations caused by solar wind stream from CH 474.

Megnetic field density has returned to normal values (75- 110 nT)

 

 

.

 

 

 

 

2011- August- 31  

M 6.8 - BANDA SEA - 2011-08-30 06:57 UTC

The fluctuations, the ups and downs in Solar wind speed resulting in an synchronous curve on the geomagnetometer on GOES ( measuring geomagnetic field intensity resp " eelectric energy") are mostly releated to RECURRENT Coronal holes resp to their process of decay. The total energy values also rise by that but not constantly but rather within strong fluctuations( vibrations

when Coronal Holes begin to decay, the pressurized sun plasma and its energetic flux in the convection zone below more and more finds back its way through this denser layer of the Coronal hole above, that has supressed them before. This can be observed as numerous minor and major eruptions until the visible CH is dissolved.

The characteristics of a CME impact or arrival are a bit different. A CME impact causes first a solar wind shock followed by an continuing increase of electrones and protons until all tha CME cloud has impacted. Allthough many of the CME particles maybe rejected their energies transforrm through the geomagnetic field, what is measured then in rising higher values measured as nanoTesla, which is the indicator of the total electromagnetic energy of the GM field.

But one major event must have been that strange event I call a " FIREBALL CME on that was observed on Aug 28 ( see report below) and that has long term effects such as a serial of heavier Seaquakes that still continues . Its very difficult to distiguish the effects of sveral CMEs follow and interfer aith one another or have an CH component. This all only can and will be assumed to one event then

89^

CH 474
DEVELOPING
Strong eruption at ETNA / Sicil: Gelologist say. the level of the eruptions is continously increasing. >watch video at BBC.com
        6.0- 6.5 1

SOLAR FLUX:

EARTH FACING ON > CH 474 SEP- 1 2011- September - 01 M 5.4 - NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE - 2011-08-31 12:17 UTC

101

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED: 348 - 431km/s

OTHER EFFECTIVE CH:

POS.   6.0- 6.5 1    
PLANETARY A INDEX:

CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs:

1 --- -- --   2011- September - 02   ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

04

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (appr.)*

EARTH FACING ON.

FLARE- CLASS**

TIME UTC EARTH DIRECTED CMEs: STATUS:/ ARRIVAL: 6.0- 6.5 1

( appears if any interesting news are available)

Scientist believe to have found out what is in the Center ( the inner core) of the Earth. Solid Crystals of an Iron nickel alloy up to 10 km long pointing towards h the Northern Pole!

Click here to watch this amazing video on BBC`s website:

What is at the centre of the Earth?

  11281 45° -30° E SEP-02/03 C5.5/1|F 22:46 UTC none     REMARKS:  
  11280 30- 45° W AUG-28     none      
  11277/79 0°- 15° E SEP- 01 --   none      
  11274/75 60- 75 ° W AUG-27 C1.1/ C 1.9   none --      
POSSIBLE EFFECTIVE CMEs NOT LISTED BY SPACE WEATHER CENTER > -

NOTICES

 

 

   
   
 

AUGUST- 30- 2011

NEW: SURVEY OF SIGNIFICANTLY ACTIVE REGIONS AND CH THOSE ARE NOT IN EARTH POSITION

   

active region/ former number/ NOAA

appr. heliographic position /SUN

rotating in Earth position:

appr. sideric position:

appr.alignment with EARTH: description/ remarks
    AR 11270/ CH 472 20110830/ 135° W SEP- 13 GEMINI DEC 19- JAN 15 strong activities between Aug- 25 and 29
               
           
         
  O

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary)

visit solen.info for more informations   FORECASTS*   GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE AND VOLCANISM SURVEY

SATELLITE DATA

date Solar special reports: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES (CH):   TODAY` S SITUATION magnitudes alert level   Earthquakes and volcanism or other notices real time data and images remarks
AUG- 29- 2011 SUNSPOTS:

NOAA: internal:  

AUGUST 30:

The geomagnetic field was rather wuie this morning except some minor fluctuations (= vibrations) caused by high speed solar wind stream , that- as I believe- rather emits from the DEVELOPING CH 474 rotating in from the East. CH 473 has already dissolved and is not more visible on satellite images.

 

 

.

 

 

 

 

2011- August- 30  

ABOUT THE PROBLEMS OF RIVER DAMS AND THE ONLY AND BEST SOLUTION:

Generally the nowadays construction of dams is an attempt to rape the nature.Water behind turns to swamp conditions by lot of material which assembles behind the wall dams fishes are dying. The only reasonable WAY TO BUILT DAMS would be first to fork a channel from the main river, which itself should GENERQALLY BE left untouched . Nets can avoild fishes from swimming into that channel. Along such a channel a multiple of dams can be built with many power station using best the difference in height but also larger resservoirs, those may serve additional purposes such as artificial fish breeding or as swimming lake . click here for:"Upper Isar Kanal Munich" (here general link to: Isar channel Munich( Germany which is the best example for channel construction. While other parts of Germany drown in water Munich had never experienced any flodding since then!!

>>>

image right the " lower Isar channel" is seperated before Munich from the main Isar river. The channel which leads through the towns itself was constructed during the Monarchy and drove many mills land other early machines., some still in use. It leads from the Munich South in a river bed in some hundred meters distance form the main Isar river. Well know is the channel as it also passes through the English garden.>>

no siginificant activities were observed on LASCO or STEREO imagery

XTREME WEATHER/ REVIEWS

LAST UPDATE ON MEGA HURRICANE "IRENE":

IRENE has as expected let to major flowing on its way to the North . as an additional man made problem also river dams had to be opened due to safety risks, they would not resist the water masees. Its now easy to pull an old dam down and just to built it anew. Old dams more and more become socalled !" Damokles swords": lot of slick has assembled behind the wall dams , that mighr cause to a great disaster

 

66

CH 474
DEVELOPING
CH 473
DISSOLVED
6.0- 6.5 1

SOLAR FLUX:

EARTH FACING ON > CH 474 SEP- 1 2011- August- 31

101

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED: 381 - 550 km/s

OTHER EFFECTIVE CH:

POS.   6.0- 6.5 1  
PLANETARY A INDEX:

CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs:

arrival after 16:00 UTC? --- -- --   2011- September - 01  

09

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (appr.)*

EARTH FACING ON.

FLARE- CLASS**

TIME UTC EARTH DIRECTED CMEs: STATUS:/ ARRIVAL: 6.0- 6.5 1 After 1918 with the electrifications this channel was enlonged North of Munich in another just genious construction involving large artificial reservoirs for electricity production and other multiple use of the water for fish breeding a. o.Though Isar is a rather small river with not much difference in height, more than 80 Megawatts electricity can be produced in that new part built after 1918.
  11280 15- 30° W AUG-28     none     REMARKS:  
  11277/79 15°- 30° E SEP- 01 --   none      
  11274/75 45- 60 ° W AUG-27 --   none --      
POSSIBLE EFFECTIVE CMEs NOT LISTED BY SPACE WEATHER CENTER > 1 (report was made after) The kind of fireball CME observed on Aug 28/17:00 UTC , was suddenly ejected from AR 11270 without any previous or associated flare. As it exploded/ expanded far away from the Sun, its plasma matter could spread in all directions and made unprecedented effects on Earth.

 

   
   

AUGUST- 30- 2011

NEW: SURVEY OF SIGNIFICANTLY ACTIVE REGIONS AND CH THOSE ARE NOT IN EARTH POSITION

 

active region/ former number/ NOAA

appr. heliographic position /SUN

rotating in Earth position:

appr. sideric position:

appr.alignment with EARTH: description/ remarks
  AR 11270/ CH 472 135° W SEP- 13 GEMINI DEC 19- JAN 15  
  No Earthquakes above 6.0 were registered on AUG- 28            
           
         
  O

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary)

visit solen.info for more informations   FORECASTS*   GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE AND VOLCANISM SURVEY

SATELLITE DATA

date Solar special reports: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES (CH):   TODAY` S SITUATION magnitudes alert level   Earthquakes and volcanism/ REMARKS: real time data and images remarks
AUG- 28- 2011 .SUNSPOTS:

     

AUGUST 29:

the geomagnetic field was wuiet to unsettledd this morning with minor vibrations caused by the low speed solar wind stream from recurrent CH 473 while it dissolves. maximum values were 120 nT, THis might effect in some minor seimisc activities storms and otzher climatic turbulences.

 

 

.

 

 

 

 

   

>>>AUG- 28- read about in tex box:

These extreme activities are related to activities in the regions numbered as: S1159 /AR 11270/ CH 472 duirng the last rotation operiod

Coronal Hole 472 is possibly ( or rather very likely?) one of those CHs which visibly APPEAR/ REBUILD and DISSOLVE on the surface ever again during a 11 year solar cycle maximum . CH 472 may also be one of those CHs which were repeatedly observed to have appeared ever again during previous solar cycles even centuries ago and may even exist below these sun coordinates since thousand or even Million of years!!!

I will try to check out whether I find something in any archive but-however- observe the region in the following weeks and months and report here about my findings!

Active regions however are minor sun spot regions oftenly ( or always?) associated to CH regions and are same as the edges/" filaments") of CHs " holes" where the sun energies in the convection zone below (surpressed by the denser matter any CH consists of) found a way to penetrate through and emit with a multiple force.. Equally , the surpressed sun force below. also makes leaks into that cover of denser matter of a CH until that darker layer of denser matter ( fusioned sun matter produced out of Hydrogen) disolves and is accumulated in the convection zone.> >The CH becomes RECURRENT and dissolves again.

. Those coronal holes let assume, that the sun has solid kind of matter in its innerst core.

 

Images 2 and 3 below: : a real " Plasma bomb" of CME followed the first CME shortlyafter that had dissolved . I don`t know how NASA calls those obviously very seldom events ( I have not seen yet such a ball fomred CME far on any NASA images) The event occured in the same extremely active region on the backside of the sun from where all the large eruptions ( possible X flares)orgiginated observed during the recent days. ( see report for Aug- 28).

the size of a flare does not allow generally to draw certain conclusions ion the mass( the potential threat) of the ejected CME. But not doubt : If such a fireball of CMEwould at any time be unleashed into earth direction ( NOTE THIS IS NOT!!)it would create some kind of worst case scenario>>

XTREME WEATHER/ REVIEWS

LAST UPDATE ON MEGA HURRICANE "IRENE":

As expected, Hurricane Irene did not perform much wind power, but rather bring with its slow movement high amounts of rain and was not that big " Hypercane yet , anticipated to occure at any time in the worst case scenarios of methereologists and climate research.

Officials rather fear an threat and larger problems in its aftermath, The large rainfalls areb expected to create problems at several river dams those have to be opened due to safety risks . what makes inavertible to flood surrounding regions.

Irenes`s eye (the significant "upwind whirl" in the center of any hurricane essential for its rotation) was already weakened with the first landfall and was finally dissolved when Irene hit the coast of Colorado.

-- on the other side in the Pacific trpical typhoon that raged at the same time over the Phillipines causes larger destruction, floodings and landslides.

73 NOAA/ solen internal: 2011- August- 29

SOLAR FLUX:

CH 473 > recurrent- will likely create now low speed solar stream 6.0- 6.5 1
101 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED: 350 - 447 km/s > RECURRENT CH 473   2011- August- 30  
PLANETARY A INDEX

CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs:

none Earth related position>: 45- 75° W   6.0- 6.5 1  
06 ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (appr.)*

EARTH FACING ON.

FLARE- CLASS**

TIME UTC EARTH DIRECTED CMEs: STATUS:/ ARRIVAL: 2011- August- 31
 
  11280 0-15° W AUG-28     none     6.0- 6.5 1  

20110828- 12: 42 UTC

20110828- 17: 30 UTC (img 2)

.20110828_- 19:18 UTC (img 3)

11277/79 30°- 45° E SEP- 01 --   none     REMARKS:  
11274/75 30- 45 ° W AUG-27 --   none --      
POSSIBLE EFFECTIVE CMEs NOT LISTED BY SPACE WEATHER CENTER > -

NOTES >>

 

   

GOES hp Data plot- AUG- 27- 29- 2011- click to enlarge

20110829-01:25 UTC

201108 29- 18:05 UTC

 
  O

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary)

visit solen.info for more informations   FORECASTS*   GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE AND VOLCANISM SURVEY

SATELLITE DATA

date Solar special reports: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES (CH):   TODAY` S SITUATION magnitudes alert level   Earthquakes and volcanism real time data and images remarks
AUG- 27- 2011  

     

AUGUST 28:

the geomagnetic field was almost quiet this morning except some minor vibrations caused by solar wind streams those can now again more and more penetrate from below through recurrent CH 473 while it dissolves. This wind causes a slight change on the data courve of the GOES magnetometer that will not have considerable effects..

 

 

.

 

 

 

 

    >>> another very strong CME could be observed on LASCO 3 today- AUG- 128 after 7:30 UTC. STEEO AHEAD observed the event after 6: 45 UTC but a clearly visible- ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SUN.->>

(1)filament eruption after 7:00 UTC

XTREME WEATHER/ REVIEWS

LAST UPDATE ON MEGA HURRICANE "IRENE":

First flanks of Hurricane Irene reached New York City today after 3.00 UTC. CNN had prepared live cameras on some places in New York City which all failed working sometimes after 4.00 UTC. The little informations available tell, that 2 Mio households are currently without electricity. At the time of this update ( 11:00 UTC) the eye of the Hurricane as reported standa directly just above New York from where it will slowly move further towards the North.

Irene transports a high amount of rain . New York city is more even endandered by the Hudson delta which opens directly to that direction from where Irene approaches. The storm flood Irene brings along will win on height and pressure speed while it penetrates into the narrow areas of the delta where the city is built . Similar pressure changes might occure with the wind

 

<< ( infragreen filter images right column): filament eruption along the norther edge of REBUILT CH 472(!!)as observed on AUG 28 after 7:00 UTCas seen with STEREO AHEAD EUVI 195 visit STEREO archives so see the event in slideshow format)

SUNSPOTS: NOAA/ solen internal: 2011- August- 28
63 CH 473 > recurrent- will likely create now low speed solar stream 6.0- 7.0 2

SOLAR FLUX:

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED: 336 - 424 km/s > RECURRENT CH 473   2011- August- 29  
103

CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs:

none Earth related position>: 30- 60° W   6.0- 6.5 1-2  
PLANETARY A INDEX   ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (appr.)*

EARTH FACING ON.

FLARE- CLASS**

TIME UTC EARTH DIRECTED CMEs: STATUS:/ ARRIVAL: 2011- August- 30
05   11280   AUG-28     none     6.0- 6.5 1-2  

(2) at 08: 05 UTC

    11277/79 45°- 60° E SEP- 01 --   none     REMARKS:  
    11274/75 15-30° W AUG-27 --   none --      
POSSIBLE EFFECTIVE CMEs NOT LISTED BY SPACE WEATHER CENTER > -

NOTES >>

The Sun rotates within appr. 1, 6 hours 1° ( of 360 circle degrees) This is appr 15° - 16° per day.

** Flare classes due to international standards and as reported by NOAA.

F* =Time when actice region will be rotating out of view

   

>>><<A CME was ejected after 21:00 on Aug 27 <<

As Stereo AHEAD shows, also this large M or even X flare went off on Aug 27 after 14: 55 behind the SUN, from the same region, where the strong flares in the recent days erupted. The source of this flares was very likely a large filament eruption along ther Northern edge of CH 472 that was in Earth facing pisition 14 days ago on Aug 14 . and might be one of those steady CH which appear and dissolve ever again and were already found in previousl solar cycles .This region will rotate into Earth position again around Sep 10.

( see report is continued in the Aug 29 report above)

REMARKS:

Solar wind speeds measured today represent the values appr. 2 days earlier near to the Sun.

About high and low speed solar wind streams:

/3( at 12: 45 UTC

  O

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary)

visit solen.info for more informations   FORECASTS*   GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE AND VOLCANISM SURVEY

SATELLITE DATA

date Solar special reports: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES (CH):   TODAY` S SITUATION magnitudes alert level   Earthquakes and volcanism real time data and images remarks
AUG- 26- 2011 SUNSPOTS:

NOAA/ solen internal:  

AUGUST 27:

The geomagnetic field appearad quiet this morning.

The magnetic field density has almost returned to normal values on Aug 25 except some minor fluctuation caused by low streams from recurrent CH 473, while it was in Earth facing postion. Earthquakes expectedly stopped along with that

Values were between 75 and 105 nT on Aug 26.

.

 

 

 

 

2011- August- 27  

solen,.info> compared to Aug.- 24 reccurrent CH 473 has further decayed andihas currently rotated towards 30- 45° WEst > 2 minor C flares but no significant CMEs or any other activities of importance were observed on LASCO and STEREO imagery between Aug- 26 and Aug- 27 until the time of this update

XTREME WEATHER/ REVIEWS

76 CH 473 > recurrent- will likely create now low speed solar stream 6.0- 7.5 2-3

SOLAR FLUX:

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED: 346 - 425 km/s > RECURRENT CH 473   2011- August- 28  
104

CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs:

none Earth related position>: 0- 30° W   6.0- 7.0 2  
PLANETARY A INDEX   ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (appr.)*

EARTH FACING ON.

FLARE- CLASS**

TIME UTC EARTH DIRECTED CMEs: STATUS:/ ARRIVAL: 2011- August- 29

Thunderstorms and hail herald summer’s end

focus.de/ Unwetter über Deutschland – Frau von Ast erschlagen

03   11280 0°- 15 ° E AUG-28     none     6.0- 6.5 1-2  

> continued.... It first significantly weakened when he made landfall on the Outer Banks vof North Carolina early on Aug- 27.. The fact that Irene was reduced (due to a system that regards its wind speed of 140 km/ h and the water column its raises below but not its size ) to cathegory 1 does not refer to its extraordinary size with a diameter of around 1000 km, that makes it a monster hurricane..

. Its is expected to reach New York on August 28 around 4:00 UTC and to cause major floodings there

Most Recent informations are available at :NOAA/ National Hurricane center

    11277/79 60° - 75° E SEP- 01 --   none          
    11274/75   AUG-27 --   none --   REMARKS:  
      11271 75- 90 ° W Fading C1.2/ C 2.3   none        
POSSIBLE EFFECTIVE CMEs NOT LISTED BY SPACE WEATHER CENTER > -

NOTES >>

The Sun rotates within appr. 1, 6 hours 1° ( of 360 circle degrees) This is appr 15° - 16° per day.

** Flare classes due to international standards and as reported by NOAA.

F* =Time when actice region will be rotating out of view

   

image above: Hurricane " Irene" snapped from ISS

. Hurricane "Irene" was formed by a tropical wave that went off from the tropic zone in West Africa on Aug 11 from where it first moved towards the Gulf of Mexico it was going through several stadiums first associated with heavy thunderstorms . Then it modified ,grew stronger inner some hours to cath 3 and weakened again when meeting with an anticyclon.>> read further in middle row >>>

link: DEUTSCHER WETTERDIENST/Unwetterwarnungen

REMARKS:

Solar wind speeds measured today represent the values appr. 2 days earlier near to the Sun.

About high and low speed solar wind streams:

<< NOAA/ National Hurricane Prediction Center: Real time graph for Hurricane " Irene" click to enlarge >>

spiegel.de/verwandte artikel zu Hurricane Irene 2011

BBC: Hurricane Irene: Emergency declared in seven US states

BBC- video/ 26,08. 2011: Hurricane Irene weakens but is still dangerou

  O
  O

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary)

visit solen.info for more informations   FORECASTS*   GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE AND VOLCANISM SURVEY

SATELLITE DATA

date Solar special reports: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES (CH):   TODAY` S SITUATION magnitudes alert level   Earthquakes and volcanism real time data and images remarks
AUG- 25- 2011 SUNSPOTS:

NOAA/ solen internal:  

AUGUST 25

the geomagnetic field was still very quiet this morning on single disturbance occured yesterday aroubd 8:00 UTC

 

 

 

2011- August- 26  

GOES hp Data plot- AUG- 24- 26

 

No Earth directed event could be observed on SoHO / LASCO until the time of this update on AUG- 26- 7:00 UTC.

>>a weak minor event was observed yesterday after 21 UTC emmiting into Northeastern direction

 
97^ CH 473 > recurrent- will likely creates now low speed solar stream 6.0- 7.5 2-3

SOLAR FLUX:

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED: 367 - 483km/s > RECURRENT CH 473   2011- August- 27  
104

CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs:

1 Earth related position>: 0- 30° W   6.0- 7.0 2  
PLANETARY A INDEX   ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (appr.)*

EARTH FACING ON.

FLARE- CLASS**

TIME UTC EARTH DIRECTED CMEs: STATUS:/ ARRIVAL: 2011- August- 28  
    11277/79 75- 90° E SEP- 01 --   none     6.0- 6.5 1-2   << STEREO images clearly show, that the main event again occured at the backside of the sun but was again associated with a very weak minor flare on the Earth directed side ( left) most likely emmited from AR 11274 or from the nearby edge of CH 473.
04   11274/75 0°- 15 ° E AUG-27 --   none --   REMARKS:  
    11272 60- 75° W Fading --   none --      
      11271 60- 75° W Fading --   none        
POSSIBLE EFFECTIVE CMEs NOT LISTED BY SPACE WEATHER CENTER > 1

NOTES >>

The Sun rotates within appr. 1, 6 hours 1° ( of 360 circle degrees) This is appr 15° - 16° per day.

** Flare classes due to international standards and as reported by NOAA.

F* =Time when actice region will be rotating out of view

       

REMARKS:

Solar wind speeds measured today represent the values appr. 2 days earlier near to the Sun.

About high and low speed solar wind streams:

       
  O

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary)

visit solen.info for more informations   FORECASTS*   GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE AND VOLCANISM SURVEY

SATELLITE DATA

date Solar special reports: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES (CH):   TODAY` S SITUATION magnitudes alert level   Earthquakes and volcanism real time data and images remarks
AUG- 24- 2011 SUNSPOTS:

NOAA/ solen internal:  

AUGUST 25

the geomagnetic field was very quiet this morning.

First time since the CME impacts in Aug- 2011*-the geomagnetic flux intensity hason Aug- 24 almost returned with 60- 110 nT to normal values again. It will be part of a new evaluation (and would be very helfpful for Earthquake prediction)if this value ( as indicated on GOES) also marks the point in time , when seismic CME after effects will significantly diminuish or end.

* combined with coronal streams, those just transmit and additional amount of solar wind, rising the flux intensity and geomagnetic energy.

2011- August- 25  

On Aug- 24 another seaquake with 5.8 in a serial that lasts since July occured on the edge of the american and eurasian plate in the Arctic sea. possibly a widening- rather a RECENT REOPENING of the arctic atlantic ridge . These quakes stand most likely in relation to the incident on the Shells oil rig , where. (as recently reported-most likely a small tectonic movement had displaced the main pipeline that leads to Aberdeen That power source doing this however has pulled on the pipeline what then caused the leaks- so the conclusion,SHELL recently published about the incident.

 

> image: solen,info> Coronal Hole CH 473 began to decay and become RECURRENTduring Aug- 24.

( CH 472 had dissolved already on Aug- 24)

 

( img. rightSoHO):As oftenly observed, a larger event ( here a major flare on the backside of the SUN) creates an minor associated events also on the the diametral opposite (Sun-) side.

75 CH 473 > creates high speed stream 6.0- 7.5 2-3

SOLAR FLUX:

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED: 443 - 560 km/s > RECURRENT CH 473   2011- August- 26  
104

CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs:

1 Earth facing on: AUG-24- 25     6.0- 7.5 2 -3  
PLANETARY A INDEX   ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (appr.)*

EARTH FACING ON.

FLARE- CLASS**

TIME UTC EARTH DIRECTED CMEs: STATUS:/ ARRIVAL: 2011- August- 27

( img. left) an high frequency xray- shock however hit SoHO at 3:33 UTC, followed by a data gap that lasted until 10: 26 UTC.. Main instruments at SoHo were likely switched out during that time

<<<

06   11274/75 15-30° E AUG-27 --   none --   6.0- 7.0 2 -3   image below ( STEREO) a major eruption went off at the BACKSIDE OF THE SUN on AUG- 24 after 4: 45 UTC
    11272 56- 60° W Fading --   none --   REMARKS:  
      11271 45- 60° W Fading --   none     As expected the CME impacts in Aug- 2011 have long lasting after effects. Since the cooling of the tectonic plates sat in, almost every day any stronger Earthquake occured- most of them seaquakes some were continental ones.  
      11271     unknoen after 3;33 UTC possible weak but fully halo CME ass with diametral event on backside of the Sun.(uncertain)>> read> Aug- 26 ( no danger)     << (img right) An obviously rather weak CME becomes obvious on LASCO 3 which most likely just a major CME on the backside of the Sun, which may have been associated with minor / not recorded) ejection in AR 11271 <<
POSSIBLE EFFECTIVE CMEs NOT LISTED BY SPACE WEATHER CENTER > 1

NOTES >>

The Sun rotates within appr. 1, 6 hours 1° ( of 360 circle degrees) This is appr 15° - 16° per day.

** Flare classes due to international standards and as reported by NOAA.

F* =Time when actice region will be rotating out of view

   

M 5.8 EARTHQUAKE IN VIRGINIA ( AUG-23) WAS FELT EVEN IN CANADA:

 

REMARKS:

Solar wind speeds measured today represent the values appr. 2 days earlier near to the Sun.

About high and low speed solar wind streams:

images left(SDO) : prominences rise over AR 11271 associated with a longer but rather weak flare activity and a short typical CME flash . a long spiral formation (brown) forms out along the entire Northern edge of the aneighbored CH 473 along with a same colored kind of turbulence in between AR 11271 and CH 473
  O

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary)

visit solen.info for more informations   FORECASTS*   GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE AND VOLCANISM SURVEY

SATELLITE DATA

date Solar special reports: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES (CH):   TODAY` S SITUATION magnitudes alert level   Earthquakes and volcanism real time data and images remarks
AUG- 23- 2011 SUNSPOTS:

NOAA/ solen internal:  

AUGUST 24

The geomagnetic field was still active this morning with major fluctuations. The geomagnetic flux intensity was with a peak of 130 nT yesterday still above average

. Both gm. effects are caused by a high speed stream of solar wind within CHs. (Solar wind speeds measured today represent the values appr. 2 days earlier near to the Sun.)

About high and low speed solar wind streams:

2011- August- 24         Several flare activities but no no significant CMEs was observed on LASCO andSTEREO imagery on Aug- 22 and none yet on Aug- 23

XTREME WEATHER/ review-

 

81^ CH 473 high speed stream? 6.0- 7.5 2-3

SOLAR FLUX:

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED: 339 - 529km/s DEVELOPING CH 473 AUG-24- 25   2011- August- 25  
103

CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs:

none RECURRENT CH 472 has dissolved   6.0- 7.5 2 ?  
PLANETARY A INDEX   ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (appr.)*

EARTH FACING ON.

FLARE- CLASS**

TIME UTC EARTH DIRECTED CMEs: STATUS: 2011- August- 26

Erdbeben erschüttert US-Ostküste - Pentagon evakuiert

Here reports of affected americans

the quake was felt in Virginia, Indiana, Shippensburg . Jersey; BOston; canada (wiki) Massachussets, Michigan South Carolina

09   11274/75 45-60° E AUG-28     none --   6.0- 7.0 2 ?     image: solen,info: CH 472 has dissolved and dissapeared, while CH 473 is still growing in size ( developing) <<
    11272 30- 45° W Fading     none --   REMARKS:  
      11271 30- 45° W Fading     none --        
POSSIBLY EFFECTIVE CMEs NOT LISTED BY SPACE WEATHER CENTER > none

REMARKS:

The Sun rotates within appr. 1, 6 hours 1° ( of 360 circle degrees) This is appr 15° - 16° per day.

** Flare classes due to international standards and as reported by NOAA.

F* =Time when actice region will be rotating out of view

     

M 5.3 - NORWEGIAN SEA - 2011-08-24 08:08 UTC

M 6.8 - NORTHERN PERU - 2011-08-24 17:46 UTC

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SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary)

visit solen.info for more informations   FORECASTS*   GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE AND VOLCANISM SURVEY

SATELLITE DATA

date Solar special reports: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES:   TODAY` S SITUATION magnitudes alert level   Earthquakes and volcanism real time data and images remarks
AUG- 22- 2011 SUNSPOTS:

NOAA/ solen internal:  

AUGUST 23

The geomagnetic field was quiet this morning .

The overall energy ( geomagnetic field intensity) in the GM field yesterday was with 80 - 125 nT still above average, and may be decreasing by now.

2011- August- 23  

The Earthquake effects by the last CMEs seems to be over by now( for the moment)band were lower than expected. Nevertheless earlier cases seem to indicate that those " heating" effects by strong CMEs like the one on Aug 4 can continue for weeks,( supported by coronal hole streams) and any new CME may trigger than a major Earthquake.

However for the moment- as I believe- , the alert level can be cancelled.

Note: these experimental Earthquake forecast are issued without guarantee or liability!

<<by solen,info: two images show the Coronal Holes 472 and 473 yesterday (left side in NE position )and today/right side- in Western position):

CH 472 is reccurenta and has almost dissapeared, while CH 473 is growing in size ( developing) <<

XTREME WEATHER/ review-

 

82^ CH 472 low speed CH stream 6.0- 8.0 2-3

SOLAR FLUX:

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED: 338-411 km/s RECURRENT CH 472 AUG- 19- 21   2011- August- 24  
100

CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs:

none DEVELOPING CH 473 AUG-24- 25   6.0- 7.5 2-3  
PLANETARY A INDEX   ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (appr.)*

EARTH FACING ON:*appr.

FLARE- CLASS**

TIME UTC EARTH DIRECTED CMEs: STATUS: 2011- August- 25

Erdbeben erschüttert US-Ostküste - Pentagon evakuiert

Here reports of affected americans

the quake was felt in Virginia, Indiana, Shippensburg . Jersey; BOston; canada (wiki) Massachussets, Michigan South Carolina

07   11271 Earth facing AUG-21     none --   6.0- 7.0 2 ?  

< images: NASA/ STEREO AHEAD:

Earth facing AR 11271 began to produce prominences on Aug- 22 after 15:00 UTC ( see minor update by solen. info left side)

    11272 Earth facing AUG- 21 C1.2/ 1.5   none --   REMARKS:  
POSSIBLY EFFECTIVE CMEs NOT LISTED BY SPACE WEATHER CENTER > none

REMARKS:

The Sun rotates within appr. 1, 6 hours 1° ( of 360 circle degrees) This is appr 15° - 16° per day.

** Flare classes due to international standards and as reported by NOAA.

  the tectonic effects of the last CME seem to diminuish.  

M 6.0 - SUNDA STRAIT, INDONESIA - 2011-08-22 20:12 UTC

M 5.8 - VIRGINIA - 2011-08-23 17:51 UTC> read report>

  O

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary)

visit solen.info for more informations   FORECASTS*   GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE AND VOLCANISM SURVEY

SATELLITE DATA

date Solar special reports: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES:   TODAY` S SITUATION magnitudes alert level   Earthquakes and volcanism real time data and images remarks
AUG- 21- 2011 SUNSPOTS:

 

AUGUST 22

The geomagnetic field was quiet this morning with minor irregularities.

The overall energy ( geomagnetic field intensity) in the GM field yesterday was with 80 - 120 nT still above average, and may be decreasing by now.

2011- August- 22   Major Sea-/ Earthquakes should be expected at least until Aug 22 following the effects of the latest CME impacts. Earthquake magnitudes increased during the last days. Though there was always one day without quakes above M 6.0 in between, it needs to await AUG 22when it will turn out whether there will be another even stronger quake or whether the acticity is decreasing by now.

no significant CMEs was observed on LASCO an STEREO imagery on Aug- 21 and none yet on Aug- 22

 

<<GOEShp dataplot- AUG- 21- 23

XTREME WEATHER/ review-

 

66^ CH 472 low speed CH stream 6.0- 8.0 2-3

SOLAR FLUX:

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED: 338-411 km/s RECURRENT CH 472 AUG- 19- 21   2011- August- 23  
100

CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs:

none DEVELOPING CH 473 AUG-24- 25   6.0- 8.0 2-3  
PLANETARY A INDEX   ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (appr.)*

EARTH FACING ON:*appr.

FLARE- CLASS**

TIME UTC EARTH DIRECTED CMEs: STATUS: 2011- August- 24  
03   11271 Earth facing AUG-21     none --   6.0- 7.5 2-3  

< images: NASA/ STEREO AHEAD:

Earth facing AR 11271 began to produce prominences on Aug- 22 after 15:00 UTC ( see minor update by solen. info left side)

    11272 Earth facing AUG- 21 C1.2/ 1.5   none --   REMARKS:  
POSSIBLY EFFECTIVE CMEs NOT LISTED BY SPACE WEATHER CENTER > none

REMARKS:

The Sun rotates within appr. 1, 6 hours 1° ( of 360 circle degrees) This is appr 15° - 16° per day.

** Flare classes due to international standards and as reported by NOAA.

  the tectonic effects of the last CME seem to diminuish. Nevertheless any stronger quake could still occure on 22 August or after    
    O                                        

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary)

visit solen.info for more informations   FORECASTS*   GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE AND VOLCANISM SURVEY

SATELLITE DATA

date Solar reports GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES:   TODAY` S SITUATION magnitudes alert level   Earthquakes and volcanism real time data and images remarks
AUG- 20- 2011 SUNSPOTS:

 

AUGUST 21

The geomagnetic field seems to be some unsettled thios morning with minor fluctuations.

The overall energy ( geomagnetic field intensity) in the GM field is with 80 - 130 nT still above average.

2011- August- 21   Major Sea-/ Earthquakes should be expected at least until Aug 22 following the effects of the latest CME impacts

>> A very weak NOT EARTH DIRECTED CME erupted from AR 11271 on Aug- 20 shortly after 22:00 UTC into Eastern direction >>

XTREME WEATHER/ review-

 

59 CH 472 AUG- 19- 21 6.0- 8.0 2-3

SOLAR FLUX:

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED:       CH 473 AUG-24- 25   2011- August- 22  
100

CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs:

none     6.0- 8.0 2-3   << the activity most licely came from AR 11271 and the Northeastern edge of CH 472
PLANETARY A INDEX   ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (appr.)*

EARTH FACING ON:*appr.

FLARE- CLASS**

TIME UTC EARTH DIRECTED CMEs: STATUS: 2011- August- 23  
05   11271 0-15 ° E AUG-21 C2.9 at 22:56 none --   6.0- 7.5 2-3   << New region 11274 rotated into view at the northeast limb on August 19 and was numbered by SWPC the next day.  
    11272 0- 15 ° E AUG- 21 ---     --   REMARKS:  
POSSIBLY EFFECTIVE CMEs NOT LISTED BY SPACE WEATHER CENTER > none

REMARKS:

The Sun rotates within appr. 1, 6 hours 1° ( of 360 circle degrees)

** Flare classes due to international standards and as reported by NOAA.

  Major Sea-/ Earthquakes should be expected until Aug 22 in the aftermath of the latest CME impacts   The activity in the region Vanuatu has decreased since the two major Seaquakes yesterday
the event was not visible on STEREO A or B
  O

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary)

visit solen.info for more informations   FORECASTS*   GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE AND VOLCANISM SURVEY

SATELLITE DATA

date Solar reports GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES:   TODAY` S SITUATION magnitudes alert level   Earthquakes and volcanism real time data and images remarks
August- 19- 2011 SUNSPOTS:

 

AUGUST- 20

The geomagnetic field was quite this morning, except some vibrations likely caused by streams from CH 472,

The overall energy ( geomagnetic field intensity) in the GM field is with 80 - 120 nT still above average.

2011- August- 20   Major Sea-/ Earthquakes should be expected until Aug 22 following the effects of the latest CME impacts

 

GOES hp- Aug 17- 19

no significant CMEs was observed on LASCO an STEREO imagery on Aug- 19

XTREME WEATHER/ review-

 

46 CH 472 stable? 6.0- 8.0 2-3

SOLAR FLUX:

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED: 347 - 383 km/s   Earth facing on> 19-21   2011- August- 21  
98

CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs:

none     6.0- 8.0 2-3  
PLANETARY A INDEX   ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (appr.)*

EARTH FACING ON:*appr.

FLARE- CLASS**

EARTH DIRECTED CMEs: STATUS: 2011- August- 22 >>A minor flare appeared above AR 11271 on Aug 19- soon after 2:00 UTC . The long duration event lasts still on Aug- 21
02   11271 15- 30 ° E AUG-21 -- none --   6.0- 7.5 2-3  
    11272 15- 30 ° E AUG- 21 --- none --   REMARKS:  
POSSIBLY EFFECTIVE CMEs NOT LISTED BY SPACE WEATHER CENTER > none

REMARKS: The Sun rotates within appr. 1, 6 hours 1° ( of 360 circle degrees)

** Flare classes due to international standards and as reported by NOAA.

     

M 7.5 - VANUATU - 2011-08-20 16:55 UTC

M 7.0 - VANUATU - 2011-08-20 18:19 UTC

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SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary)

visit solen.info for more informations   FORECASTS*   GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE AND VOLCANISM SURVEY

SATELLITE DATA

date Solar reports GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES:   TODAY` S SITUATION magnitudes alert level   Earthquakes and volcanism real time data and images remarks

August- 18- 2011

SUNSPOTS:

 

AUGUST 19:

The geomagnetic field was quiet and normal this morning

The avarage geomagnetic flux density (= indicator for (intensity and electric charge )

is still at 100 nT, almost 20 % above usual values.

2011- AUG 19:  

UPDATE. AUGUST 19- 2011- 6:00 UTC
A SEAQUAKE M 6.3 ( USGS: 6:5) - OCCURED NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN on 2011-08-19 at 05:36 UTC!
A TSUNAMI WARNING FIRST WAS ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF JAPAN, HONSHU and Fukushima. a one meter high wave was sighted on the ocean soon after
THE TSUNAMI WARNING WAS CANCELLED AFTER 8: 30 UTC

WARNING: REMAIN CAUTIOUS IN THE ENTIRE PACIFIC! MORE HEAVIER
SEAQUAKES MIGHT FOLLOW THE NEXT DAYS!

 

no visible larger flares or CMEs were observed on LASCO imagery

XTREME WEATHER/ review- AUG- 18:

EUROPE: long lasting thunderstorms

53^ CH 472 stable? 6.0- 8.0 2-3

SOLAR FLUX:

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED: 355- 408 km/s   Earth facing on> 19-21   2011- AUG- 20:  
97

CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs:

none     6.0- 8.0 2-3  

GOES hp- Aug 17- 19

PLANETARY A INDEX   ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (appr.)*

EARTH FACING ON:*appr.

FLARE- CLASS**

EARTH DIRECTED CMEs: STATUS: 2011- AUG- 21:    
03   11271 25- 35 ° E AUG-21 C1.1/C1.6 none --   6.0- 8.0 2-3  
    11272 25- 35 ° E AUG- 21 C 1.2 none --   REMARKS:  
POSSIBLY EFFECTIVE CMEs NOT LISTED BY SPACE WEATHER CENTER > none

REMARKS: The Sun rotates within appr. 1, 6 hours 1° ( of 360 circle degrees)

** Flare classes due to international standards and as reported by NOAA.

  Major Sea-/ Earthquakes should be expected until Aug 22 in the aftermath of the latest CME impacts  

M 6.3 - NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN - 2011-08-19 05:36 UTC

2011 August 19 03:54:27 UTC- Magnitude 6.2 - FIJI REGION

  O

LAST UPDATE

( YESTERDAY`s SUMMARYby:

solen.info

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS  

EARTH DIRECTED CMEs

active Sun regions capable for:

SPECIAL:

AVERAGE

SUN WIND SPEED

(km/s)

CORONAL HOLES

Earth facing on:

EARTH DIRECTED CMEs

anticipated arrival on Earth

 

 

TODAY S SITUATION:

EFFECTS OF CMEs NOT LISTED BY SPACE WEATHER CENTER

FORECAST for the next days

ESTIMATED MAXIMUM

EARTHQUAKE STRENGTH

ESTIMATED SEVERENESS ( 1-3)  

RESULTS

> all global Earthquakes above magnitude 6.o

> other weather phenomena ( so far as reported)

if none. this space is used for other data

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD

all 3 days: GOEShp 3 days data plot

TEXTBOX:

YESTERDAY: solen.info: -TODAY:( at time of update)

SPACE FOR REMARKS

SoHO/ LASCO yesterday:

(significant observations)

SPACE FOR REMARKS

SOLAR DATA

visit solen.info for more information   FORECASTS*   GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE AND VOLCANISM SURVEY

SATELLITE DATA

date Solar   halo CMEs reports Sun wind CH CME status   TODAY` S SITUATION magnitudes alert level   Earthquakes and volcanism real time data and images remarks

August- 17- 2011

SUNSPOTS:  

CME report >>

 

472

   

AUGUST 18:

The geomagnetic field appeared quite again this morning on the GOEShp plot >

CH 472 might cause droping temperatures during Aug 20- 21

2011- AUG 18:  

A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR COAST OF JAPAN
FOLLOWING A HEAVIER M 6.3.- 6.9 EARTHQUAKE OFFSHORE HONSHU

WARNING REMAIN CAUTION IN THE ENTIRE PACIFIC! HEAVIER
SEAQUAKES MIGHT FOLLOW THE NEXT DAYS!

The visible sun disc on Aug- 18 after midnight by: SDO AIA Composite featuring:

CH 472 ( about 45°E/ 0° N)AR 11270 ( about 30°W 30° N) and the active regions AR 11271 and 11272 (just rotating in from the East) in the Southern region ( about 15°E/ 75° S) another unnumbered CH.>>

XTREME WEATHER:

Sindh (Pakistan) Flooding Follows Cloudbursts Last Week

spiegel.de/ Belgien Unwetter/ Sturm tötet Besucher auf Open-Air-Festival

44 6.0- 8.0 2-3

SOLAR FLUX:

  total CMEs on the way: CORONAL HOLES: Earth facing on> 20-21   2011- AUG- 19:  
97  

none

CH 471 has dissapeared and was today not more visible

  6.0- 8.0 2-3  

GOES hp- Aug 17- 19

PLANETARY A INDEX 2011- AUG- 20: < sun spots on the visible sun disc on AUG 18 ( SDO/ HMI Intensitygram)
06   ACTIVE REGION FEATURE/ time Nr FLARES EARTH DIRECTED CMEs STATUS:   6.0- 8.0 2-3  
    11271 10:42 UTC   C3.4   --   REMARKS:  
    11272   3 C1.9- -C 2.6   --   Major Sea-/ Earthquakes should be expected until Aug 22 in the aftermath of the latest CME impacts  
POSSIBLY EFFECTIVE CMEs NOT LISTED BY SPACE WEATHER CENTER >   none   geomagnetic field>      
  O

SOLAR DATA

  FORECASTS*   GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE AND VOLCANISM SURVEY

SATELLITE DATA

date Solar   halo CMEs reports Sun wind CH CME status   TODAY S SITUATION magnitudes alert level   Earthquakes and volcanism real time data and images remarks

August- 16- 2011

SUNSPOTS:  

CME report >>

404 - 630

471

   

AUGUST 17:

the geomagnetical field has returned to normal values on August 17 and was quiet this morning.

internal:a developing CH 472 rotates into an Earth facing position. Solen. info says the increase of speed solar wind stream yesterday origins from CH 471. I rather would believe it comes from CH 472. however any Coronal hole is statistically associated with dropping temperatures those again create winds or storms.

2011- AUG 17:  

 

 

EXTREME WEATHERS AUGUST- 16:

Still extreme rainfalls in the region of New York

as well as in Pakistan

 

.
26 6.0- 8.0 2-3

SOLAR FLUX:

  total CMEs on the way: CORONAL HOLES: Earth facing on> rotating out   2011- AUG- 18:  
95  

none

CH 471 has almost decayed and rotated to the Western edge

  6.0- 8.0 2-3  
PLANETARY A INDEX 2011- AUG- 19:
08   ACTIVE REGION FEATURE/ time Nr FLARES EARTH DIRECTED CMEs STATUS:   6.0- 8.0 2-3  
    none       reported: 0 --   REMARKS:   a soft solar wind stream was visible during tha last 3 days on STEREO Behind obviously emmited from region 11270 ( or CH 472)on the Northern hemisphere.
                  The CME impacts are over: If then the stronger SEA/-Earthquakes I expected when their effects would diminuish would set in from Aug- 17 on.  
POSSIBLY EFFECTIVE CMEs NOT LISTED BY SPACE WEATHER CENTER >   none   geomagnetic field>     M 6.1 - OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN - 2011-08-17 11:44 UTC    
   
  O
           

SOLAR DATA

  FORECASTS*   GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE AND VOLCANISM SURVEY

SATELLITE DATA

date Solar   halo CMEs reports Sun wind CH CME status   TODAY S SITUATION magnitudes alert level   Earthquakes and volcanism real time data and images remarks

August- 15- 2011

SUNSPOTS:  

CME report >>

403 - 491

471

   

AUGUST 16:

The geomagnetic field was still vibrating this morning, but fluctuations have decreased

solen,.info wants to be sure about, the strong fluctuations beginning around 21;00 UTC on Aug 14 and lasting all day long on Aug 15 were not ( as In supposed) caused by a late arrival of the CME on AUG 09 ( slown down by CH 469 and 471), but would be the effect of a "high speed stream from CH 471."

2011- AUG 16:  

if the theory is true that Earthquakes following CMEs would cocure around those tectonic plates on those the CMEs mainly impacted, the following regions would be at high risk for a large ( rather) Seaquake than Earthquake that might (if) then occure soon, resp in the coming days:

SOUTH AMERICA / PACIFIC COAST mainly CHILE) ( intensity: 3)

NORTH AMERICA ( CENTRAL AMERICA, MEXICO OR ALASKA( intensity: 2- 3)

ATLANTIC/ EUROPE WEST( intensity: 2)

the relaxation of these plates mainly affected by these CMES would most likely effect into the regions of

INDONESIA and PHILLIPINES JAPAN

GOEShp dataplot- AUG- 15- 2011 click to enlarge!

STEREO AHEAD

EXTREME WEATHERS AUGUST- 15:

(BBC- Aug- 16-incl video): Severe snow storm causes chaos in NZ

USA/ New York: record rain falls

(spiegel.de/ Aug- 15):Nach Extrem-Regen: Riesige Kreidebrocken stürzen auf Rügen an den Strand

Effects related to the geomagnetic disturbances:

: After 11.00 UTC longer bradio blackout occured on several TV programs provided over Satellite or DVB-T. The effects lasted throughout the afternoon and diminuished late at night,.

Connections to several Webservers were interrupted

 

.
13 6.0- 7.0 2-3

SOLAR FLUX:

  total CMEs on the way: CORONAL HOLES: Earth facing on> rotating out   2011- AUG- 17:  
90  

none

solar.info/ NOAA:Solar wind speed ranged between 403 and 491 km/s under the influence of a high speed stream from CH471.

  6.0- 8.0 3  
PLANETARY A INDEX 2011- AUG- 18:
13   ACTIVE REGION FEATURE/ UTC-time loc FLARES EARTH DIRECTED CMEs STATUS:_   6.0- 8.0 3  
    11271 4: 45 UTC North East C 1.4/ --- --   REMARKS:   images of the flare- taken by STEREO AHEAD show clearly; This flare and CME occured on the BACKSIDE OF THE SUN!
    [S1169] 11: 25 S21E85 C 3.4/ ---     The CME impacts are over: If then the stronger SEA/-Earthquakes I expected when their effects would diminuish would set in from Aug- 17 on.  
POSSIBLY EFFECTIVE CMEs NOT LISTED BY SPACE WEATHER CENTER >   none   geomagnetic field>     M 6.2 - CERAM SEA, INDONESIA - 2011-08-16 11:03 UTC

 

the visible Sun seemed quiet on Aug 16 Only the bright light spot of Venus is passing by< above the Northern pole Then- anytime after 10;00 a large flare appeared above the Northern Pole. STEREO AHEAD images prove: This flare occured BEHIND the visible SUN disc ...followed by a large CME. All that happened on the backside of the Sun. Not any part of this flare/ CME is Earth directed! GUARANTEED!
  O

SOLAR DATA

  FORECASTS*   GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE AND VOLCANISM SURVEY SATELLITE DATA  
date Solar   halo CMEs reports Sun wind CH CME status   TODAY S SITUATION magnitudes alert level   Earthquakes and volcanism real time data and images remarks

AUG- 14

SUNSPOTS:  

CME report >>

325 > 475 km/s

471

The last observed halo CME impacted on AUG 14 >  

AUGUST 15:

GOES measured extreme fluctuations shortly before it was in the midnight position ( magnetopause) The continuing effects of the impact of the xtreme C halo CME associated witgh the X 6.9 flare on Aug- 09 after 8:05 UTC.

Values have to be observed during Aug 15.

The large Coronal Hole 471 seems to cause significant drop in average temperatures on Earth>

 

2011- AUG 15:  

HIGHEST EARTHQUAKE ALERT LEVEL IN PLACE from AUGUST 15/16 on!

Now the time has come to put the preliminary EARTHQUAKE alert in place! I beg your pardon that the situation with 5 particular very strong CMES following one another during the last week was/ is quite unusual.

The CMEs interfered with each other. the last one / from the X 8.9 flare on Aug- 09) came very late due to Solar wind speed had decreased below 400 km/se during the last days.

I DID NOT expect the predicted M 8.0 Earthquake not to happen soon after any CME impact but anytime after if the tectonic plates heated up would cool down again.Nevertheless and as this theory is not well experienced,(by the way. this case is a very good evidence) I left the high alert level in place during all these 5 CMEs impacted one after another

Since Aug 09 no further Earth directed CME was observed- After the effect of the last CME will have diminuished either today AUG 15 or tomorrow, the tectonic plates will have the first chancesince AUG 05 to cool down again.

Major Sea/ quake above M 8.= might follow soon if this process has begun . remark: Any Seaquake above 8.0 might trigger an at least nearby effective Tsunami

<image-SDO /AIA Composite - AUG 14:/click to enlarge):

prominences. loop over region S1168 ,.S1168 is currently still on the eastern side of the Sun and will rotate into an Earth facing position until AUG- 21

( NOAA/solen.info:[S1168] rotated partly into view at the northeast limb August 14. The region may be capable of producing M class flares. Location at midnight: N17E87

 

0 6.0- 7.0 2-3

SOLAR FLUX:

  total CMEs on the way: CORONAL HOLES: Earth facing on> -passed-   2011- AUG- 16:  
98  

none

DECREASING AVERAGE TEMPERATURE

  6.0- 8.0 3  
PLANETARY A INDEX 2011- AUG- 17:
09 ACTIVE REGIONS AND FLARES

FLARES PRODUCING CMEs:

  6.0- 8.0 3  
    11263 X6.9/2B flare(associated with weak type II and IV radio sweeps ) X 6.9/2B 08:05 UTC FAST HALO CME

impacting:_ AUG 1

interferent with previous CME
  REMARKS:   graphic above: Catania current sun spot groups
POSSIBLY EFFECTIVE CMEs NOT LISTED BY SPACE WEATHER CENTER >   none   geomagnetic field>  

All expected CME have impacted now No further CME was observed!

The preliminary alert must be changed to REAL ALERT from AUG 16 - 18 ( maybe longer)!

  .>>Star coronal hole and active region map by: solen,info >>

Latest news:

CORONAL HOLE EFFECT?:

(NZ Herald) More snow on the way for NZ

  O

SOLAR DATA

  FORECASTS*   GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE AND VOLCANISM SURVEY SATELLITE DATA  
date Solar   halo CMEs reports Sun wind CH CME status   TODAY S SITUATION magnitudes alert level   Earthquakes and volcanism real time data and images remarks

AUGUST -13- 2011

highest alert

SUNSPOTS:  

CME report >>

287 - 360

CH 471

reccurrent

last CME impacted yesterday  

August- 14- 2011

GOES measured today after 11:00 UTC stronger disturbances on the geomagnetic field- most liekely the late arrival of the halo CME (associated to an X 6.9 flare on Aug- 09- 6:05 UTC),

Solar wind speed was quite low at 10 UTC with less than 400 km/ s.

Calculations based on the solar wind speeds of the last days confirmed the CME arrival took appr 4 days and would therefore impact around Aug 14

see: special report on page 2

2011- AUG- 14  

 

< GOEShp dataplot- AUG- 14- 2011

No significant new events were observed on SoHo or STEREO images today.

35 6.0- 7.0 2-3

SOLAR FLUX:

  total CMEs on the way: CORONAL HOLES: Earth facing on>     2011- AUG- 15:  
83  

1

 

  6.0- 8.0 3  
PLANETARY A INDEX 2011- AUG- 15:
05 ACTIVE REGIONS AND FLARES

FLARES PRODUCING CMEs:

  6.0- 8.0 3  
    11263 X6.9/2B flare(associated with weak type II and IV radio sweeps ) X 6.9/2B 08:05 UTC FAST HALO CME AUG- 14       a minor sun wind stream from CH 471 was visible on the calm visible Sun disc on Aug 13. which seems to emit from the filament near CH 371 or from an aneighbored active region a large eruption occured at the backside of the Sun after 11: 30 UTC:
   

11263

AUG- 08

M3.5/1B at 18:10 (associated with type II and IV radio sweeps and a fast CME

M 3.5

1B

03:57 UTC PARTIAL CME impacting>   REMARKS:  
POSSIBLY EFFECTIVE CMEs NOT LISTED BY SPACE WEATHER CENTER >   none   geomagnetic field>        

 

                     
data sources>>
thanks to: solen.info (summary of all solar data)- click here to see solens daily solar terrestrical activity report

*

o
internal (alien-homepage) o EMSC/ USGS:

GOEShp - Magnetometer-

STEREO SoHO/ LASCO SDO /AIA  

LAST UPDATE

( YESTERDAY`s SUMMARYby:

solen.info

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

EARTH DIRECTED CMEs

active Sun regions capable for:

SPECIAL:

AVERAGE

SUN WIND SPEED

(km/s)

CORONAL HOLES

Earth facing on:

EARTH DIRECTED CMEs

anticipated arrival on Earth

 

 

TODAY S SITUATION:

EFFECTS OF CMEs NOT LISTED BY SPACE WEATHER CENTER

FORECAST for the next days

ESTIMATED MAXIMUM

EARTHQUAKE STRENGTH

ESTIMATED SEVERENESS ( 1-3)  

RESULTS

> all global Earthquakes above magnitude 6.o

> other weather phenomena ( so far as reported)

if none. this space is used for other data

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD

all 3 days: GOEShp 3 days data plot

TEXTBOX:

YESTERDAY: solen.info: -TODAY:( at time of update)

SPACE FOR REMARKS

SoHO/ LASCO yesterday:

(significant observations)

SPACE FOR REMARKS  
  O

SOLAR DATA

  FORECASTS*   GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE AND VOLCANISM SURVEY

SATELLITE DATA

date Solar halo CMEs reports Sun wind CH CME status   TODAY S SITUATION magnitudes alert level   Earthquakes and volcanism real time data and images remarks  

AUGUST -12- 2011

 

 

highest alert!

SUNSPOTS:

CME report >>

352 - 379

CH 471

reccurrent

.Sun wind speed had been rather low since Aug 11 ( CH 471)  

AUGUST- 13:

Most believed the significant but rather weak ( alert level 1-2) fluctuations on Aug 12 were already the arrival of the stronger halo CME after the x 6.9 flare on Aug- 09

But it doesn`t seem so: . GOES measured another soft solar wind shock-on AUG- 13 after 5:00 UTC difficult to verify so shortly after the magnetopause. But the sharp rising values since then indicate: this is most likeley the arrival of the second halo CME

2011- AUG- 13   update Aug 13: 14:00 UTC: at the time of this update the values began sharply to rise to (current):115 nT.
CURRENTLY AFFECTED REGION: EASTERN ATLANTIC ( heading westwards)
Today,after 4:00 UTC GOES measured a solar wind shock followed by a sharp rise in the geomagnetic flux intensity. During the day it became obvious: this is the late arrival of the halo CME associated with the X6.9 flare on Aug- 09 after 8:05 UTC.First short radio blackouts occured in Europe soon after 14:00 U

different to the CMEs impacted before (those had a larger positive proton load/component, rather swallowing energies from the GM field), today`s ACE diagrams showed, this CME seems to have a high negative charge of electrons, those likely can cause immidiate effects on radio transmission and power grids. It also can trigger sudden enhanced volcanic activities and cause intensive thunder(storms )and lightenings, HUGE EARTHQUAKES ARE EXPECTABLE, WHEN PLATES WILL BEGIN TO COOL DOWN AGAIN!

SDO Composite- AUG- 12- 2011: CH 471 is very active at its s Eastern edges

<< A minor CME shot out today from an as it seems filament eruption along the northwest edeg of CH 171 11:00 UTC or taanpromenence in an to yet counted AR below. .. Its visible both on STEREO A and B.. Its not known yet whether anything of that would be Earth directed. SOHO images are not available yet  

25

total CMEs on the way: CORONAL HOLES: Earth facing on> AUG 11- 13   6.0- 8.0 3  
SOLAR FLUX:

1

CH 471 seems to slow down average sun wind speed

  2011- AUG- 14:  
83 ACTIVE REGIONS AND FLARES

FLARES PRODUCING CMEs:

  6.0- 8.0 3  
PLANETARY "A" INDEX 11263 X6.9/2B flare(associated with weak type II and IV radio sweeps ) X 6.9/2B 08:05 UTC FAST HALO CME AUG- 13-impacting?>   2011- AUG- 15:  
05 none       arrival interfers with previous CME arrival on AUG 12   6.0- 8.0 3  
                  REMARKS:         .  
             

Values are preliminary as these effects of these 4 CMES will take place when tectonic plates will begin to cool down again!.

ALERT LEVELS REMAIN IN PLACE

   
POSSIBLY EFFECTIVE CMEs NOT LISTED BY SPACE WEATHER CENTER > -none-        
  O

SOLAR DATA

  FORECASTS*   GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE AND VOLCANISM SURVEY

SATELLITE DATA

AUGUST -11- 2011

 

 

highest alert!

SUNSPOTS:

CME report >>

354 - 454

CH 471

reccurrent

   

AUGUST- 12:

the geomagnetic field appeared relatively calm again. A soft solar wind shock had occured yesterday- AUG- 11 after 20:00 UTC, possibly the arrival of the partial CME on Aug 08.

after 5 days contining fluctuations, the geomagnetic field appeared on Aug 11 after 8:00 UTC to have returned to normal values again. Along with that a first significant earthquake took place offshore Honshu Japan.

2011- AUG- 12  

Since AUG 04 one CME after another has impacted on Earth. The gemomagnetic field as indicator could not return to normal values since then. The CMEs heat up continental plates those expand then, without causing significant sesimis waves.The typical Earthquake usually following those CME impacts will therefore delay take place rather if impact is over and tectonic plates cool down again and contract again >

 GOES REALTIME magnetometer ( hp data plot)

volcanoes erupting after Aug- 04:

LOKON EMPONG( red alert- Aug-08)

KARANGETANG ( red alert- Aug-08)

KIRISHIMA( yellow alert = activeAug-08)

 

36

total CMEs on the way: CORONAL HOLES: Earth facing on> AUG 11- 13 6.0- 8.0 3
SOLAR FLUX:

2

CH creates no yet streams yet

  2011- AUG- 13:
84 ACTIVE REGIONS AND FLARES

FLARES PRODUCING CMEs:

  6.0- 8.0 3
PLANETARY "A" INDEX 11263 X6.9/2B flare(associated with weak type II and IV radio sweeps ) X 6.9/2B 08:05 UTC FAST HALO CME AUG 12- 13 2011- AUG- 14:
08

11263

AUG- 08

M3.5/1B at 18:10 (associated with type II and IV radio sweeps and a fast CME

M 3.5

1B

03:57 UTC PARTIAL CME impacting>> 6.0- 8.0 3
              REMARKS: M 6.1 - EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN - 2011-08-11 18:22 UTC

<<AUG- 10:

Currently, the flare activity is very low on ths visible sun disc.

new active regions producing flares will rotate into Earthfacing position within the next week

< SoHO/ LASCO

another not Earth directed CME was observed after 7.00 UTC emitting from AR 11263- AR 11264 gas almost rotated out of view yet.

<<

 
           

Values are preliminary as these effects of these 4 CMES will take place when tectonic plates will begin to cool down again!.

ALERT LEVELS REMAIN IN PLACE

 

POSSIBLY EFFECTIVE CMEs NOT LISTED BY SPACE WEATHER CENTER > -none-      
                                         

AUGUST -10- 2011

 

 

highest alert!

SUNSPOTS:

CME report >>

449 - 557

CH 471

reccurrent

   

AUGUST- 11:

The vibrations of geomagnetic field have decreased over the last days to lower values, waiting for the arrival of the partial halo CME on Aug- 08 expected for today.

The visible disc

 

 

2011- AUG- 11:  

Since AUG 04 one CME after another has impacted on Earth. The gemomagnetic field as indicator could not return to normal values since then. The CMEs heat up continental plates those expand then, without causing significant sesimis waves.The typical Earthquake usually following those CME impacts will therefore delay take place rather if impact is over and tectonic plates cool down again and contract again >

 

watch these CMEs on my latest youtube video:

solar X6.5 flare unleashes 5. CME within one week hurling down to Earth! >>

  >> <SoHo LASCO 3- at 21:45 UTC-  

43

total CMEs on the way: CORONAL HOLES: AUG 11- 13 6.0- 8.0 2- 3
SOLAR FLUX:

2

 

  2011- AUG- 12:
90 ACTIVE REGIONS AND FLARES

FLARES PRODUCING CMEs:

6.0- > 8.0 3
PLANETARY "A" INDEX: 11263 X6.9/2B flare(associated with weak type II and IV radio sweeps ) X 6.9/2B 08:05 UTC FAST HALO CME AUG 11- 12 2011- AUG- 13:  

> <SoHo LASCO 3- at 18:42 UTC-

;new active regions flame up on the East side of the Sun. One quatorial source emmits a smaller ( not at all earth directed) CME into Eastern direction. These regions will rotate into view in the coming week

 
07

11263

AUG- 08

M3.5/1B at 18:10 (associated with type II and IV radio sweeps and a fast CME

M 3.5

1B

03:57 UTC PARTIAL CME AUG-10? 6.0- >8.0 3
POSSIBLY EFFECTIVE CMEs NOT LISTED BY SPACE WEATHER CENTER > -none-   The arrival of the partial Earth directed CME on Aug 08 began on Aug 10 shortly after 22.00 UTC and became obvious after GOES had passed the midnight position ( geopause)

preliminary values!

ALERT LEVELS REMAIN IN PLACE

  O                                      

AUGUST -09- 2011

 

 

highest alert!

SUNSPOTS:

CME report >>

466-616

CH 471

reccurrent

   

AUGUST- 10:

The geomagnetic field was still rather active, still in vibration from the impacts of larger CMEs on Aug 04-06

A stream of solar wind from the Earth facing side of ths Suntowards Earth was observed on Stereo on Aug- 06- 08

 

 

2011- AUG- 10:  

Since AUG 04 one CME after another has impacted on Earth. The gemomagnetic field as indicator could not return to normal values since then. The CMEs heat up continental plates those expand then, without causing significant seismis waves.The typical Earthquake usually following those CME impacts will therefore delay and take place rather if impact is over and tectonic plates cool down again and contract again >

 

watch these CMEs on my latest youtube video:

solar X6.5 flare unleashes 5. CME within one week hurling down to Earth! >>

<SoHo LASCO 3- at 11:18 UTC-

the "foggy" CME cloud is spreading out into space- much of it heading towards Earth.

 

54

total CMEs on the way: CORONAL HOLES: AUG 11- 13 6.0- 8.0 2- 3
SOLAR FLUX:

2

  2011- AUG- 11:
97 ACTIVE REGIONS AND FLARES

FLARES PRODUCING CMEs:

6.0- > 8.0 3
PLANETARY "A" INDEX: 11263 X6.9/2B flare(associated with weak type II and IV radio sweeps ) X 6.9/2B 08:05 UTC FAST HALO CME AUG 11- 12 2011- AUG- 12:   <<SoHo LASCO 3- 9:06 UTC- the large CME appeared shortly after 9:00 UTC at the edges of LASCO`s protection shield. The CME eruption from an X 6.5 class flare had already occured at 8: 05 UTC. the intensive x ray radiation emmited from the gamma ray activity around AR 11263 hit the lens wih the speed of light causing significant white stripes- an indicator that the CME is fully halo.  
09

11263

AUG- 08

M3.5/1B at 18:10 (associated with type II and IV radio sweeps and a fast CME

M 3.5

1B

03:57 UTC FAST PARTIAL(?) CME AUG-10? 6.0- >8.0 3
POSSIBLY EFFECTIVE CMEs NOT LISTED BY SPACE WEATHER CENTER > -none-  

preliminary values

ALERT LEVELS REMAIN IN PLACE

  O                                      

AUGUST -08- 2011

 

 

highest alert!

SUNSPOTS:

CME report >>

451 - 588

     

AUGUST- 09:

Today, the geomagnetic field is still unsettled by the CME impacts on Aug- 04- Aug 07 and did not really calm down again yet.>>

AR 11263 produced another M flare at 18:10 (associated with type II and IV radio sweeps and a fast CME >>

2011- AUG- 09:  

no earthquake above 6.0 registered since AUG 04!!

PLEASE REMAIN CAREFUL! ITS JUST THE " TRANQUILLITY PRIOR TO THE STORM!!""

ALERT LEVELS THEREFORE REMAIN IN PLACE

update- Aug- 09: Its very seldom that 3 CMEs followed one another and so its barely known how they would interact which one another. The geomagnetic fields is still largely fluctuating 4 days after the huge solar wind shock with 205 nT - the arrival of the 2. CME late on Aug 05. Due to the low sun wind speed the 3. CME (Aug 04) can`t have arrived within 1day. .>If one storm hits on another, you won`t see much difference,: So.the 3 CME must have arrived, while the 2 was still active.

A stream of solar wind from the Earth facing side of ths Sun towards Earth was observed on Stereo since Aug- 06

<<SoHo LASCO 3 after 18:00 UTC Another weak CME was ejected from AR11263 in the SW quadrant mainly in the radial direction. A small portion could hit the Earth on Aug 10.

 

80

total CMEs on the way: CORONAL HOLES:   6.0- 8.0 2- 3
SOLAR FLUX:

1

  2011- AUG- 10:
101 ACTIVE REGIONS AND FLARES

FLARES PRODUCING CMEs:

6.0- > 8.0 3
PLANETARY "A" INDEX: 11263

M3.5/1B at 18:10 (associated with type II and IV radio sweeps and a fast CME

M 3.5

1B

03:57 UTC FAST PARTIAL(?) CME AUG-10? 2011- AUG- 11: STEREO AHEAD/ CORE 2 at 20: 09 UTC STEREO AHEAD/ CORE 2 at 18: 24 UTC

<<<

> SoHO /LASCO 2 at 20:00 UTC: The typical funnel of a wek but fast CME spreads into SE direction. LASCO received some radiation ( visible as white stripes on the lens)early in the Morning on Aug 09 which is an indictator, that this CME is partially Earth directed.

 

 
10 11263 4 flares C 1.3 C 3.7   SOLAR / GEOMAGNETIC STORMS:solen,info/ NOAA: 6.0- >8.0 3
POSSIBLY EFFECTIVE CMEs NOT LISTED BY SPACE WEATHER CENTER > -none-  

preliminary values

Earthquake will take place rather if impact is over and tectonic plates cool down again and contract again >

ALERT LEVELS REMAIN IN PLACE

  O                                      

AUGUST -07- 2011

 

 

highest alert!

SUNSPOTS:

CME report >>

444 and 584

CH*    

AUGUST- 08:

The geomagnetic turbulences caused by the CME impact on Aug 5 continued until yesteday- appr. 9:00 UTC. Afterwards the GM field appearedto be calm again. Unclear remains the impact of the third CME (AUG-04) .

A constant stream of solar wind from the Earth facing side of ths Suntowards Earth was observed on Stereo since Aug- 06

2011- AUG- 08:  

no earthquake above 6.0 registered since AUG 4. The "tranqullity prior to the storm"

Note CMEs heat up the Earthcrust where they impact. This causes continental plates first to expand. When heated up, the lower layers of the plates become also more soft and smoothy. The friction with other continental plates is therefore low, while a CME is still effective.

The disastrous EARTHQUAKES after each large CME occure when all is over and the plates cool down and contract again. As long there is one CME effective and another one is about to arrive( as now) this effect is DELAYED.

ALERT LEVELS THEREFORE REMAIN IN PLACE#

GOES REALTIME magnetometer ( hp data plot)

region 1163 in the SW quadrant is still active and produced 5 C flares ranging from C1.3- C 2.1 . Its is rotating out of the Earth facing position, but is believed capable fr producing M flares

 

89

total CMEs on the way: CORONAL HOLES:

CH469

6.0- 8.0 2- 3
SOLAR FLUX:

1

RECURRENT*** currently dissolving

  2011- AUG- 09:
105 ACTIVE REGIONS AND FLARES

FLARES PRODUCING CMEs:

6.0- > 8.0 3
PLANETARY "A" INDEX: 11261

August 04-internal name: "PERSEPHONIA"

M 9.0 03:57 UTC HALO CME AUG-06-07? 2011- AUG- 10:
07       SOLAR / GEOMAGNETIC STORMS:

solen,info/ NOAA: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on August 7

6.0- >8.0 3          
   

preliminary values

Earthquake will take place rather if impact is over and tectonic plates cool down again and contract again >

ALERT LEVELS REMAIN IN PLACE

     
BEWARE expecially on a major seaquake with a subsequent Tsunami happening anytime during the next 3 days ( until AUG 9 ) -most likely around the Pacific !                 **AR= active region  
  O                                      

AUGUST -06- 2011

 

 

highest alert!

SUNSPOTS:

CME report >>

418- 714

CH*    

AUGUST- 07: The geomagnetic field is still vibrating from the strong CME impact on AUG- 05

Unclear is still , what is with the third strongest CME: Only two significant solar wind shocks were measured by GOES since Aug 02.

The course a CME takes can be 100% calculated by satellites like SoHo situated exactly between Sun and Earth. But predictions on impact times by NOAA almost always go wrong.

2011- AUG- 07:  

no earthquake above 6.0 registered since AUG . The "tranqullity prior to the storm"

Some expert now believe the extreme solar wind shock observed on Aug-05 at 19:00 UTC was already the impact of the largest, the 3. CME. I don`t and believe this 3. CME is yet to arrive, most probably today- sometimes between noon and the late afternoon.

SoHO/ LASCO 3:

STEREO AHEAD:

 

STEREO BEHIND:

 
85 total on the way): CORONAL HOLES:

CH469

6.0- 8.0 2- 3
SOLAR FLUX:

1

RECURRENT*** currently dissolving

  2011- AUG- 08:
110 ACTIVE REGIONS AND FLARES

FLARES PRODUCING CMEs:

6.0- > 8.0 3
PLANETARY "A" INDEX: 11261

August 04

"PERSEPHONIA" M 9.3 03:57 UTC HALO CME AUG-06-07 2011- AUG- 09:
6.0- >8.0 3
31 !!   A stream of solar wind from the Earth facing side of ths Sun towards Earth can be observed on Stereo since Aug- 06   SOLAR / GEOMAGNETIC STORMS:

preliminary values

Earthquake will take place rather if impact is over and tectonic plates cool down again and contract again >

ALERT LEVELS REMAIN IN PLACE

Another weak CME was ejected from a flare in AR 11263 shortly after 12:30 UTC heading into South West direction On STEREO AHEAD at 16: 24 this very weak CME appeared to be at least partially Earth directed  
       
POSSIBLY EFFECTIVE CMEs NOT LISTED BY SPACE WEATHER CENTER > -none-   On STEREO BEHIND at 16: 24 just the intensity of the Earth directed particle sundwind appears to increase after 00.40 UTC with a peak at 16: 40
  O                                      

AUGUST -05- 2011

 

 

highest alert!

SUNSPOTS:

CME report >>

358-693

CH*    

AUG- 06:

The impact of a CME on the geomagnetic field is comparable to a strong hit on a gong, causing vibration.

Since yesterday 19:00 UTC the values are so extreme, as in no event during the last 7 years ( last one topping that was on December -09 2004)

 

2011- AUG- 06:  

no earthquake above 6.0 registered since AUG 4. The "tranqullity prior to the storm"

Note CMEs heat up the Earthcrust where they impact. This causes continental plates first to expand. When heated up, the lower layers of the plates become also more soft and smoothy. The friction with other continental plates is therefore low, while a CME is still effective.

The disastrous EARTHQUAKES after each large CME occure when all is over and the plates cool down and contract again. As long there is one CME effective and another one is about to arrive( as now) this effect is DELAYED.

GOES magnetometer values- AUG- 03- 05. The impact of the second holo CME on Aug 5- after 18.00 UT

       
94 total on the way): CORONAL HOLES:

CH469

6.0- 8.0 2- 3
SOLAR FLUX:

1

RECURRENT*** currently dissolving

  2011- AUG- 07:
109 ACTIVE REGIONS AND FLARES

FLARES PRODUCING CMEs:

6.0- > 8.0 3
PLANETARY "A" INDEX: 11261 August 04- M 9.3 03:57 UTC HALO CME AUG-06-07 2011- AUG- 08:
49 !!       6.0- >8.0 3
     
BEWARE expecially on a major seaquake with a subsequent Tsunami happening anytime during the next 3 days ( until AUG 9 ) -most likely around the Pacific !   Some expert now believe the extreme solar wind shock observed yesterday (Aug-05 at 19:00 UTC) was already the impact of the largest, the 3. CME. I don`t and believe this 3. CME is yet to arrive, most probably today- sometimes between noon and the late afternoon                
                                         

AUGUST -04- 2011

 

highest alert!

SUNSPOTS:

CME report >>

between 317 and 366 km/s.

CH* EARTH DIRECTED CMEs:  

AUG 05:

the geomagnetic field is very active now

 

 

2011- AUG- 05:  

 

AUGUST 05:- 8:45 UTC:

The geomagnetic field was still very active to stormy at the time of this update. On AUG- 04- 22:00 UTC, GOES measured a strong Solar wind shock on the geomagnetic field, indicating the arrival of the first CME ( Aug- 02) The CME impact is going on and will last until late that day

 

 

 

another even larger M 9.3 event flamed up in region 11261 unleashing another full Holo CME cargo towards Earth. the 9.3 flare at 3: 57 corresponded with aneighbored region 11253 which created another (M1.5?) flare with a CME release soon after at 4:32 AUG- 04

The solar wind of the two CMEs following one another on Aug- 4 at 3: 57 ( 9.3 flare in region 11261) and at 4:32 ( region 11253. M 1.5 flare?) ist at 22:30 still heading into the Earthbound space

 
81 total ( on the way): CORONAL HOLES:

CH469

6.0- 7.0 2- 3
SOLAR FLUX:

2

RECURRENT

estimated arrival on Earth 2011- AUG- 06:
116 ACTIVE REGIONS AND FLARES

FLARES PRODUCING CMEs:

6.0- 8.0 3
PLANETARY "A" INDEX: 11261 August 04- M 9.3 03:57 UTC HALO CME AUG 6-7 2011- AUG- 07: Just after the cloud of the large, but slow moving CME on August- 03 ( 14: 42 UTC) at 18: 42 UTC had faded into space...>>  
04 11261 August 03 M 6.0 13: 48 UTC HALO CME CME arrived on: AUG- 05- after 18:00 UTC 6.0- < 8.0 3 Earthquakes above M6.0 ( worldwide)
  11261

August 02

 

M 1.4 06:19 UTC PARTIAL CME CME arrived on: AUG- 04- 22:00 UTC     M 6.1 - KURIL ISLANDS - 2011-08-04 13:51 UTC
             
                                         

AUGUST -03- 2011

 

highest alert!

SUNSPOTS:

CME report >>

between 317 and 366 km/s.

CH* EARTH DIRECTED CMEs:  

AUG 04:

The first CME may arrive today°

No signs of arrival however were measured by GOES at the time of this update

( Aug- 04- 9:47 UTC)

follow my Earthquake tracking on page 2!

Three very large CMEs are on the way to Earth ands will have for sure dramatic effects!

 

2011- AUG- 04:  

August- 02: active regions ( solen.info)

 

The geomagnetic field was still very quiet at the time of this update. The arrival of the first of 3 HOLO CMEs is expected today. Major updates will follow during thisAugust 4!

 

 

video left side:

from my youtube channel:

>> pictures and slide shows by NASA`s Sun observers SDO SoHO and STEREO of the three CMEs on Aug 02-03 and 04

 

A second fully holo CME was associated with an larger 6.0 flare from region 11261 on August- 03 at 14::23 UTC

SoHO at 15:06

s,,e event as seen from STEREO BEHIND (on the right side of image)

This CME was rather slow and expanded visibly into space until late night that day

 

 
66 total ( on the way): CORONAL HOLES: CH469 6.0- 7.0 2- 3
SOLAR FLUX: 3

RECURRENT

estimated arrival on Earth 2011- AUG- 05:
119 ACTIVE REGIONS AND FLARES

FLARES PRODUCING CMEs:

6.0- 8.0 3
              2011- AUG- 06:
PLANETARY "A" INDEX: 11261 August 03 M 6.0 13: 48 UTC HALO CME AUG 05-06 6.0- < 8.0 3
03 11261 August 02 M 1.4 06:19 UTC PARTIAL CME AUG 04- 9:00 UTC    
           
 
AUGUST -02- 2011 SUNSPOTS:

CME report >>

between 356 and 516 km/s

CH* EARTH DIRECTED CMEs:  

AUG 3:

NONE

no disastrous events expectable

AUGUST

03-04-05

high alert from Aug 04 on!

today: today:  

 

 

AUG- 02,after 7:00 UTC-a significant CME cloud began to spread into NW direction- most of iti s covered by the protection shield on the LASCO lens

. The CME cloud at 9:42 UTC

 
100 total:: CORONAL HOLES: CH469   5.5.- 6.0 1  
SOLAR FLUX: 2 RECURRENT estimated arrival on Earth   tomorrow tomorrow:  
121 ACTIVE REGIONS AND FLARES

FLARES PRODUCING CMEs:

  6.0- 7.0 2- 3  
PLANETARY "A" INDEX: 11261 August 02 M 1.4 06:19 UTC PARTIAL CME AUG 04- 9:00 UTC   2011- AUG- 04:     second CME at 15::10 UTC
03 11263 August- 02 3 C flares M 1.7 flare 4: 23 UTC ?   6.0- 8.0 3  
  11261 August- 02 2 C flares    
 
AUGUST -01- 2011 SUNSPOTS:

CME:

regions 11261 and 11263 could produce major flares and CMEs

501 and 630 km/s

high speed stream from CH 468

---

 

CH*  

AUG 2:

LOW

AUGUST

02-03-04

5.5- 6.5 1-2  

M 6.0 - NEAR S. COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN - 2011-08-01 14:58 UTC

 

(internal) no significant CME was observed on LASCO yesterday. the sudden flash on the image left must therefore by portion of a CME or solar wind anyway

(solen.info) The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on August 1.

 
130 none- CH 468    
SOLAR FLUX: ACTIVE FLARES:    
124 REGIONS: C-flares:    
PLANETARY "A" INDEX: 11263 8    
09 11261      
         
                                     

***DEVELOPING Coronal Holes usually create high speed solar wind streams, thos can acaclerate the solar wind to the triple of its " normal" speed.

. RECURRANT Coronal Holes just do the opposite: Depending on their size they slow down the sun wind much under its average speed. (Gavity effects, due to a process of increasing density possibly the start of another new step in the core fusionprocesses and activities)

  * my forecasts ar based on reliable statistical evaluations and current satellite data- Nevertheless, all forecasts are without guarantee or liablitly!  
for previous reports( archives in 2011- go to page Sunspot archive 2011
 
 

 

 

possible means: any heavier earthquake is possible- but not sure! - probable means : there will be any heavier Earthquake with high probability

Collection of interesting links to solar cycle - Sun activity and other :

NASA/ SDO latest image from the Sun surface>>

 

NASA: Current view onto the Sun surface

click here to get to the NASA/ SDO website with the current live picture of the Sun
 

OTHER SOLAR SPACERCRAFTS:

NASA- about the solar 11 years cycle

NASA STEREO WEBSITE

NASA "Stereo" are two space crafts observing the sun from opposite direction to create an image of the entire Sun

pdf ( Max Planck/ Aeronomie) Steuert die Sonne das Erdklima?
Max Planck Computersimulation von Sonnenflecken
 
NASA: Solar iridiance NASA-SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory)

IMAGES FROM NASA ARCHIVES::

SOLAR NEWS:

NASA/ video of "Solar Tsunami" (2007) CNN- FEB- 16- 2011: Scientists, telescope hunt massive hidden object in space
NASA: Sun in 3 D  
   

 

 
related institutes:  
American Astronomic Society

 

 

  Elder archives:

 

< Volcano Disaster Archive 2010  
correlations of sun activity to Earthquake and volcanism- archive 2010  
<< click here, to get informations, news reports archives with maps, links, videos of earthquake disasters 2010
 

 

 

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