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Alien-Homepage.de- Earth quake statistics

Alien-Homepage.de- Earth quake statistics- last update: DECEMBER- 10 - 2011- --copyright: reserved

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SUN SPOT ACTIVITY ARCHIVE

DECEMBER 2011

click here to the archive directory for 2011

What you find on these related pages:

> STATISTIC RESEARCH ON THE RELATION BETWEEN SOLAR FEATURES/ ACTIVITIES TO EARTHQUAKES AND VOLCANISM AND OTHER CLIMATICAL EFFECTS

>EXPERIMENTAL "2 DAYS EARTHQUAKE AND VOLCANISM FORECAST" PROJECT BASED ON SOLAR ACTIVITY, resp these evaluation-

click here to get to the latest reports of the current month/year

NOTE: I will apply a new archive system in 2012° click on the button (right) to get to the NEW Archive directory >>
alien-homepage.de / internal links: default earthquake time is: UTC (GMT)>
< SOLAR PROJECT ( main page)    
       
HOME/ NAVIGATION recommended: install Google toolbar with integrated translator!
   
Weathercenter reports and archives with maps, links, videos of earthquake disasters
    reports and archives with maps, links, videos of volcano disasters
ws     << Earthquake Statistics- START- with archives from 2004- 2010
     

image above by: NASA: STEREO ( two satellites - one called "AHEAD" the other: " BEHIND") observe the Sun`s surface from both opposite directions (at an ankle of 90° degrees to the line from Sun to Earth). The live feed is no more available. NASA claims to have problems with transmission of both stallites data streams and problems when processing the images. You tube user claim, NASA would censor the publications , since they hade discovered strange objects on the edges of the images ( click here for a youtube video that shows those strange objects )

NEW on my pages: volcano- earthquake and disaster maps:

on my regional maps you can find the current volcanic activites-updated weekly on Thursdays- and many more information

Kamchatka peninsula and Aleutian islands
Japan, Mariana Islands- Kyril islands
Indonesia and Philippines
Australia and Southern Pacific
Northern America
Central America and Mexico
South America- Northern part
South America- Southern part
Africa and Arabic peninsula
Europe and Western Asia

 

TRANSLATOR use the new improved Google translator for any site translations>>>  
NEW: VISIT my new site on Volcano activities ; begun in Oct 2010! On this page I want to create a timetable with worldwide volcano activities in 2010 and 2011. The site will also contain a list of volcanoes , a volcano map and other useful informations such as links to special reports or webcams: >just click here>> volcano activity timetable 2010/11
you must add 1 hour to the event dates, if you use my time converter as the converter default time is UTC+ 1
 

This page had to be divided into monthly sections due to the high data load

special graphic to make correlation obvious between CME impacts and natural events( earthquakes volcano eruption, storms...) click to enlarge:

 

 

click here to open:

SOLAR AND ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG ARCHIVE- DEC- 2011

DECEMBER 2011

notices: I now added links to each image. Click on these links. if the images are not loaded

NOTE ALSO: SOME DATA IN MY TODAY`S REPORT MIGHT BE PRELIMINARY CONTAIN SOME FAILURES OR WILL BE COMPLETED LATER THAT DAY!

SOURCES
solen.info solar terrestrical activity report (SUMMARY OF YESTERDAYS SOLAR DATA
   

*

o

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST (alien-homepage)

please: always calculate with an error of at least one day in the Earthquake predictions!

o
 

 

 

                             

YEAR:

2011

 

MONTH:

DECEMBER

 

DAY:

31

             

SECTION 1 >

SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info) visit solen.info for more informations  

Please note: During MULTIPLE CME events ( if one CME is followed by one or several other ones) Earthquake effects will delay!! Earthquake forecast estimations will therefore be preliminary then and migh tbe changed (> delay) several times !

 
LAST REPORT (previous day) SOLAR PARAMETERS (for more detailled informations on the Solar activity go to : solen.info-/ or: SunSpotWatch.com CORONAL HOLES (solen.info CORONAL HOLES (CH)   EXPERIMENTAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS ( internal project)  
  SOUTHERN POLAR CH (S-CH)   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  

DEC-30- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
CH 490 (S-CH Extension)       2011- DECEMBER- 31  
  89 flare class > C M X GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY: CH/ EARTH FACING ON: QUIET 5.5- > 7.0

INCREASING

 

SOLAR FLUX:

total flares (number)> 12 01   50- 1375nT     UNSETTLED 2012- JANUARY- 01
  141 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s) 334-473 X RAY
BACKGROUND FLUX>

B 5.6

      MINOR STORM 5.5- > 7.0

INCREASING

 
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

  MAJOR STORM 2012- JANUARY- 02  
  05 ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latitude: appr. EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED

ESTIMATED CME ARRIVALS   5.5- > 7.5

1-3

  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
                    IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES:  
                   

remarks to Earthquake probability:

Three major partial CMEs are expected to impact from Dec 27- 29. "Immidiate effects*( left) will follow soon afterv.If no further CME follows, the Earthquake probability will raise appr. from JAN 01- 04

 
                     
                     
  11384 71° - 85 ° W 12° N              
  11386 19° - 33° W 15° S              
  11388 29°- 15° E 23° E JAN- 01           TODAY CME ARRIVALS : STRENGTH (1-3 VOLCANO ERUPTIONS

PROBABILITY:

CURRENTLY LOW

 
  11389 44°- 30° E 18° S JAN 02           DEC- 31/ after 8:00 UTC (ongoing) 2 RAPIC MELTING PROCESSES LEVEL 3: appr from JAN- 01 - Jan 04- 2012!  
  11390 19°- 05° E 09° N JAN- 01           APPROACHING CMEs >> 0 STORMS STRENGTH: M 8.0  
  11389 44°- 30° E 18° S JAN 02           NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION / last 24 hours:  
  11390 19°- 05° E 09° N JAN- 01           geomagnetic storms (G)  

radio blackouts (R)

-- solar radiation storms(S) --  
SECTION 2 CME EVENT SECTION:    

APPROACHING CMEs

                     
(event Nr 62) DEC- 27- 2011

Another minor CME was reported by solen, info:AR 11386 Flare: C8.9/1F at 04:22 UTC. This event was associated with at least a partial halo CME where quite a bit of material was hurled northwards.December 27: At least a partial halo CME was associated with the C8 flare in region 11386 early in the day. This CME is fairly slow and could reach Earth on December 30.

remarks: The flare occured much earlier as STEREO AHEAD images suggest. STEREO however had a data gap after oo:09 until after 6 UTC STEREO BEHIND however shows a minor weak CME after 4:15 UTC. This event will- as I suppose not have major effects.

its difficult to say exactly, when which of the later CMEs exactly arrived or whether not a minor one interfered with a previous impact and remains undetected. However: GOES had a solar wind shock on DEC 31- after 8:00 UTC. There is also a sharp rise in the solar wind parameters measured by ACE. Both values however are clear evidence for a CME arrival ( likely the last of the serial of 4 CME events )

 

TODAY`s CME ARRIVALS ( CME Tracking)

                         

 

CME DATA ( SOLAR) CME ARRIVAL DATA ( EARTH)  

( arrival date) DEC- 31- 2011

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION (longitude)

latidude: EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: REMARKS HIGHEST VALUES ON ACE ( duration) GOES FIRST IMPACT time/ longitude   time/ longitudes/ values> 100 nT *internal relative mass value* main impact region ( geographic)* GOES peak peak value ( magnetic density (nanoTesla)* intern. Nr  
11368 69°- 55° E 23° E JAN- 01 DEC- 27/ 4:25 UTC C8.9/1F at 04:22 UTC IMPACT WAS MINIMAL AND NOT NOTICABLE sharp rise after 5:30 UTC DEC- 31/ after 8:00 UTC   ongoing event at time of last update         62  
               

* test value

  * GOEShp      

GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT

          related CME ARRIVAL internal event number  

- THE REGIONS ARE NAMED AFTER SEISMIC ACTIVE REGIONS AND TECTONIC PLATES. ( Red backcolor) means the region those were hit relatively strongest by the latest CME: last updated on: DEC 19- 2011

remark, The multiple CMEs unleashed after Christmans have a global impact with some higher values in specific regions (as displayed below)

  DECEMBER- 27/ 28- 2011/ later  
SOUTH WEST ASIA (INDONESIA, PHILLIPINES) CENTRAL PACIFIC: JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NORTH AMERICA/USA - WESTERN PACIFIC: ALASKA NEW ZEALAND VANUATU CENTRAL AMERICA- COLUMBIA, PERU ... ATLANTIC & AMERICA SOUTH EURASIA & AFRICA ASIA MINOR  

TODAY`s CME EVENTS:

                             
     
            Today`s GOEShp Magnetometer plot - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD  
           
STEREO "Ahead" STEREO " Behind" SDO /AIA SDO /AIA SoHO    
     

SECTION 3 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

 
TODAY`s REPORTS: MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL POSSIBLY FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY!    
special remarks:

note: the correctness of data published by the offical institutes such as NOAA or EMSC is the responsibility of these institutes not mine

 

VOLCANOES

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL LOCAL SURVEY GOOGLE EARTH WEBCAM

SOURCES:

 
NEW ERUPTIONS> LEWOTOLO 8°16'18"S/ 123°30'18"E DEC- 31- 2011   CVGHM LEWOTOLO none GVP  

LEWOTOLO/ CVGHM reported that white plumes rose 50-250 m above the summit of Lewotolo during the month of December. Seismicity increased on 31 December and intensified on 2 January, the same day incandescence was observed. Based on visual and seismic observations, CVGHM raised the Alert Level from 1 to 2 (on a scale of 1-4) on 2 January, then later that day raised the Alert Level to 3.

GVP ( Global Volcanism Program/ USGS/ Smithsonian inst.)  
 

 

 

                             

YEAR:

2011

 

MONTH:

DECEMBER

 

DAY:

30

             

SECTION 1 >

SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info) visit solen.info for more informations   INTERNAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*  
LAST REPORT (previous day) SOLAR PARAMETERS (for more detailled informations on the Solar activity go to : solen.info-/ or: SunSpotWatch.com CORONAL HOLES (solen.info CORONAL HOLES (CH)   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: ESTIMATED MAXIMUM MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  
  SOUTHERN POLAR CH (S-CH)    

DEC-29- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
CH 490 (S-CH Extension)       2011- DECEMBER- 30  
  105 flare class > C M X GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY: EARTH FACING ON: QUIET 5.5- >6.5

INCREASING

 

SOLAR FLUX:

total flares (number)> 16 02   20- 137 nT     UNSETTLED 2011- DECEMBER- 31
  147 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s) 318-508 X RAY
BACKGROUND FLUX>

B 6.5

CH 490 (S-CH Extension) DEC 28- 28   MINOR STORM 5.5- > 7.0

INCREASING

 
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

  MAJOR STORM 2012- JANUARY- 01  
  07 ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latitude: appr. EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED

ESTIMATED CME ARRIVALS   5.5- > 7.5

INCREASING (2-3)

  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
                    IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES:  
                   

remarks to Earthquake probability:

Three major partial CMEs are expected to impact from Dec 27- 29. "Immidiate effects*( left) will follow soon afterv.If no further CME follows, the Earthquake probability will raise appr. from Dec 30 on ( for 3- 4) days

 
                     
                     
rotating out of view> 11380 86° - 100° W 20° S              
  11383 67°- 81° W 03° N              
  11384 58° - 72 ° W 12° N             TODAY CME ARRIVALS : STRENGTH (1-3 VOLCANO ERUPTIONS

PROBABILITY:

CURRENTLY LOW

 
  11386 07° - 21° W 15° S                 RAPIC MELTING PROCESSES LEVEL 3: appr from JAN- 01 on!  
  11388 42°- 28° E 23° E JAN- 01           APPROACHING CMEs >> 3 STORMS STRENGTH: M 8.0  
  11389 57°- 43° E 18° S JAN 02           NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION / last 24 hours:  
  11390 33°- 19° E 09° N JAN- 01           geomagnetic storms (G)  

radio blackouts (R)

R1 solar radiation storms(S) --  
SECTION 2 CME EVENT SECTION:    

APPROACHING CMEs

                     
DEC- 27- 2011

Another minor CME was reported by solen, info:AR 11386 Flare: C8.9/1F at 04:22 UTC. This event was associated with at least a partial halo CME where quite a bit of material was hurled northwards.December 27: At least a partial halo CME was associated with the C8 flare in region 11386 early in the day. This CME is fairly slow and could reach Earth on December 30.

remarks: The flare occured much earlier as STEREO AHEAD images suggest. STEREO however had a data gap after oo:09 until after 6 UTC STEREO BEHIND however shows a minor weak CME after 4:15 UTC. This event will- as I suppose not have major effects.

 
ESTIMATED STRENGTH (1-3)> 1 11368 69°- 55° E 23° E JAN- 01 DEC- 27/ 4:25 UTC C8.9/1F at 04:22 UTC     DEC 29/30  
CME FROM FILAMENT ERUPTION ON DEC- 26- 2011> Another larger filament eruption also occured on December 26 around 11:26, pretty well on the Central meridian ( means: in a perfect Earth aiming position!!) . Again the eruption took place near but this time East of AR 11384 with a larger CME at 11:26 UTC. .(3) (4) The event formed out a huge spiral of prominences over hundredthousands of Sun miles along the erupted filament for hours after . STEREO(1) (2) shows an impressive eruption of sun matter from this event which mixed with a major flare in AR 11380. On SoHo, the CME appeared as a partial halo around the Northern Sun hemisphere.This third stronger Earth directed CME within 3 following days will likely arrive some time on Dec 28- 29 . At all the three CMEcurrently on their way to Earth might very likely create the background for major natural catastrophies expectable in the following week from DEC 27/28 until January 4th. Immidiate effects such as volcano activities, storms and rapid snow/ ice meltdowns would set in soon after the arrival of the first CME Dec 27/ 28) . Earthquake in the aftermath will likely delay until DEC 30/ 31 ( if no further CME impacts). This means a high risk and probability for a really major large Earth/ Sea quake from Dec 30 on (more likely on Dec 31- January 03 2012) but with a high magnitude, that could exceed M 8.0 ( what is regarded as sufficiant to trigger a significant Tsunami! . Further data/ informations will be available in the next days!  

TODAY`s CME ARRIVALS ( CME Tracking)

                         

 

CME DATA ( SOLAR) CME ARRIVAL DATA ( EARTH)  

 

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION (longitude)

latidude: EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: REMARKS HIGHEST VALUES ON ACE ( duration) GOES FIRST IMPACT time/ longitude   time/ longitudes/ values> 100 nT *internal relative mass value* main impact region ( geographic)* GOES peak peak value ( magnetic density (nanoTesla)* intern. Nr  
CENTRAL MERIDIAN filament eruption DEC- 26/ 11:26 UTC several hours GEMINI DEC- 30/ 11:00 UTC- 20 UTC DEC- 30/ 08:00 UTC   11:00- 20:00 UTC 135 UTC- UTC-6 ( CENTRAL EUROPE- EAST COAST/ USA) 12:00- 14:00 UTC(OO° W- 30° E)- ATLANTIC/ EAST 130 nT 61  
               

* test value

  * GOEShp      

GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT

          related CME ARRIVAL internal event number  

- THE REGIONS ARE NAMED AFTER SEISMIC ACTIVE REGIONS AND TECTONIC PLATES. ( Red backcolor) means the region those were hit relatively strongest by the latest CME: last updated on: DEC 19- 2011

remark, The multiple CMEs unleashed after Christmans have a global impact with some higher values in specific regions (as displayed below)

  DECEMBER- 27/ 28- 2011/ later  
SOUTH WEST ASIA (INDONESIA, PHILLIPINES) CENTRAL PACIFIC: JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NORTH AMERICA/USA - WESTERN PACIFIC: ALASKA NEW ZEALAND VANUATU CENTRAL AMERICA- COLUMBIA, PERU ... ATLANTIC & AMERICA SOUTH EURASIA & AFRICA ASIA MINOR  
                             

TODAY`s CME EVENTS: :

  OBSERVED none                      

SECTION 3 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

 
TODAY`s REPORTS: MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL POSSIBLY FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY!    
special remarks:

note: the correctness of data published by the offical institutes such as NOAA or EMSC is the responsibility of these institutes not mine

 

VOLCANOES

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL LOCAL SURVEY GOOGLE EARTH WEBCAM

SOURCES:

 
TODAY s NEW EVENTS               volcano discovery.com  
       

Zubair Group, Yemen

Eruption creates new island in Red Sea

The Red Sea appears to have a tiny new island, courtesy of an underwater eruption.The island essentially lava that cooled after breaking through the water's surface began forming this month between Yemen and Eritrea among the Zubair archipelago, a group of small islands that come from a submarine shield volcano, according to NASA and the Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism Program....read more...

 

news.blogs.cnn.com  
STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: STRENGTH DIRECTION CATHEGORY

SOURCES:

 
INDIA/ SW- ASIA

Cyclone Thane hits southern Indian coast

Cyclone Thane has made landfall on the southern Indian coast, battering the area with rain and strong winds, officials say. Winds of 140km/h (86mph) have damaged houses and uprooted trees and electricity poles. At least six people are reported to have died. Fishermen have been advised not to venture out into the rough sea...read more...

www.bbc.co.uk/  
 

 

 

                             

YEAR:

2011

 

MONTH:

DECEMBER

 

DAY:

29

             

SECTION 1 >

SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info) visit solen.info for more informations   INTERNAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*  
LAST REPORT (previous day) SOLAR PARAMETERS (for more detailled informations on the Solar activity go to : solen.info-/ or: SunSpotWatch.com CORONAL HOLES (solen.info CORONAL HOLES (CH)   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: ESTIMATED MAXIMUM MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  
  SOUTHERN POLAR CH (S-CH)    

DEC-28- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
CH 490 (S-CH Extension)       2011- December - 29  
  122 flare class > C M X GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY: EARTH FACING ON: QUIET 5.5- 6.5

1-2

 

SOLAR FLUX:

total flares (number)> 13 --   90- 160 nT S-CH DEC 23- 24 UNSETTLED 2011- December - 30
  144 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s) 275-329 X RAY
BACKGROUND FLUX>

B 5.7

CH 490 (S-CH Extension) DEC 26- 27   MINOR STORM 5.5- > 7.0

INCREASING

 
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

  MAJOR STORM 2011- December - 31  
  03 ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latitude: appr. EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED

ESTIMATED CME ARRIVALS   5.5- > 7.5

INCREASING (2-3)

  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
                    IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES:  
                   

remarks to Earthquake probability:

Three major partial CMEs are expected to impact from Dec 27- 29. "Immidiate effects*( left) will follow soon afterv.If no further CME follows, the Earthquake probability will raise appr. from Dec 30 on ( for 3- 4) days

 
                     
                   
11380 72° - 86° W 20° S              
11383 53°- 67° W 03° N              
11384 42° - 56 ° W 12° N             TODAY CME ARRIVALS : STRENGTH (1-3 VOLCANO ERUPTIONS

PROBABILITY:

CURRENTLY LOW

 
  11386 06°E - 08° W 15° S DEC- 29               RAPIC MELTING PROCESSES LEVEL 3: appr from DEC- 30 on!  
  11388 56°- 42° E 23° E JAN- 01           APPROACHING CMEs >> 3 STORMS STRENGTH: M 8.0  
NEWLY EMERGED> 11389 70°- 56° E 18° S JAN 02           NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION / last 24 hours:  
  11390 45°- 31° E 09° N JAN- 01           geomagnetic storms (G)  

radio blackouts (R)

  solar radiation storms(S) --  
SECTION 2 CME EVENT SECTION:    

APPROACHING CMEs

                     
DEC- 27- 2011

Another minor CME was reported by solen, info:AR 11386 Flare: C8.9/1F at 04:22 UTC. This event was associated with at least a partial halo CME where quite a bit of material was hurled northwards.December 27: At least a partial halo CME was associated with the C8 flare in region 11386 early in the day. This CME is fairly slow and could reach Earth on December 30.

remarks: The flare occured much earlier as STEREO AHEAD images suggest. STEREO however had a data gap after oo:09 until after 6 UTC STEREO BEHIND however shows a minor weak CME after 4:15 UTC. This event will- as I suppose not have major effects.

 
ESTIMATED STRENGTH (1-3)> 1 11368 69°- 55° E 23° E JAN- 01 DEC- 27/ 4:25 UTC C8.9/1F at 04:22 UTC     DEC 29/30  
CME FROM FILAMENT ERUPTION ON DEC- 26- 2011> Another larger filament eruption also occured on December 26 around 11:26, pretty well on the Central meridian ( means: in a perfect Earth aiming position!!) . Again the eruption took place near but this time East of AR 11384 with a larger CME at 11:26 UTC. .(3) (4) The event formed out a huge spiral of prominences over hundredthousands of Sun miles along the erupted filament for hours after . STEREO(1) (2) shows an impressive eruption of sun matter from this event which mixed with a major flare in AR 11380. On SoHo, the CME appeared as a partial halo around the Northern Sun hemisphere.This third stronger Earth directed CME within 3 following days will likely arrive some time on Dec 28- 29 . At all the three CMEcurrently on their way to Earth might very likely create the background for major natural catastrophies expectable in the following week from DEC 27/28 until January 4th. Immidiate effects such as volcano activities, storms and rapid snow/ ice meltdowns would set in soon after the arrival of the first CME Dec 27/ 28) . Earthquake in the aftermath will likely delay until DEC 30/ 31 ( if no further CME impacts). This means a high risk and probability for a really major large Earth/ Sea quake from Dec 30 on (more likely on Dec 31- January 03 2012) but with a high magnitude, that could exceed M 8.0 ( what is regarded as sufficiant to trigger a significant Tsunami! . Further data/ informations will be available in the next days!  
ESTIMATED STRENGTH (1-3)> 2 CENTRAL MERIDIAN filament eruption DEC- 26/ 11:26 UTC several hours GEMINI ( solen.info)December 26: At least a partial halo CME was observed after a filament eruption across the central meridian near region 11384. This CME could reach Earth on December 29. DEC- 28- 29  

GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT

          related CME ARRIVAL internal event number  

- THE REGIONS ARE NAMED AFTER SEISMIC ACTIVE REGIONS AND TECTONIC PLATES. ( Red backcolor) means the region those were hit relatively strongest by the latest CME: last updated on: DEC 19- 2011

remark, The multiple CMEs unleashed after Christmans have a global impact with some higher values in specific regions (as displayed below)

  DECEMBER- 27/ 28- 2011/ later  
SOUTH WEST ASIA (INDONESIA, PHILLIPINES) CENTRAL PACIFIC: JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NORTH AMERICA/USA - WESTERN PACIFIC: ALASKA NEW ZEALAND VANUATU CENTRAL AMERICA- COLUMBIA, PERU ... ATLANTIC & AMERICA SOUTH EURASIA & AFRICA ASIA MINOR  

TODAY`s CME EVENTS:

                             
DEC- 29- 2011 A beginning eruption could be observed today on the earth facing side of the Sun. at the time of this update. STEREO had a transmission gap from DEC- 28/ 16:54 UTC until Dec 29/ 4: 54 UTC, due to larger eruptions on the backside of the Sun. STEREO AHEAD has a malefunction since then ( or is it the website player?). On SDO a strange short black colored cloud CME is to see at 07:13 uTC escpaing from the Sun`s surface (2) on the same filament North of the equator , that erupted on DEC- 28. The region associated to AR 11384 has meanwhile rotated to the Western quadrant.The flank from this CME that will - if it hit the Earth appr-on January 01- seems to be rather minor ( compared to the previous CMEs) and not noticable.  
(1) 20111229/ 06:54 UTC   (2) 20111229/ 07:13 UTC       Today`s GOEShp Magnetometer plot - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD  
         
STEREO "Ahead" STEREO " Behind" SDO /AIA SDO /AIA SoHO    
     

SECTION 3 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

 
TODAY`s REPORTS: MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL POSSIBLY FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY!    
special remarks:

note: the correctness of data published by the offical institutes such as NOAA or EMSC is the responsibility of these institutes not mine

 

VOLCANOES

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL LOCAL SURVEY GOOGLE EARTH WEBCAM

SOURCES:

 
NEW ACTIVITIES > CLEVELAND 52°49'30"N/ 169°56'38"W DECEMBER- 29- 2011 eruptive Alaska Volcano Observatory) CLEVELAND    
AVO reported that an ash cloud from Cleveland rose to an altitude of 4.6 km (15,000 ft) a.s.l. and drifted 80 km ESE on 29 December. AVO raised the Volcano Alert Level to Watch and the Aviation Color Code to Orange. During 30 December-3 January there were no new signs of explosive activity; the Volcano Alert Level was lowered to Advisory and the Aviation Color Code to Yellow on 30 December. No current seismic information was available because Cleveland does not have a real-time seismic network. GVP  
CLEVELAND Volcano/ Aleutian islands

Air traffic alert after Alaska volcano spews ash cloud

ANCHORAGE, Alaska, Dec 29 (Reuters) - A remote volcano inAlaska's Aleutian Islands erupted violently early on Thursday, spouting an ash cloud 15,000 feet (4,570 metres) into the sky and prompting an air-traffic alert, scientists said. The Cleveland Volcano, located on an uninhabited island 940 miles (1,500 km) southwest of Anchorage, had been oozing lava and gas since July......read more...

www.chicagotribune.com/ 20111229  
TODAY s NEW EVENTS               volcano discovery.com  
GAMALAMA / Indonesia

TERNATE, Indonesia - (AP) -- Officials say mudflows streaming from a volcano in eastern Indonesia have killed four villagers and about 1,000 others have fled their homes. Mount Gamalama in the Molucca Islands sprang to life this month with a powerful, non-fatal eruption.Government spokesman Yusuf Sunnya said Wednesday that days of heavy rains triggered flows of cold lava, rocks and other debris that slammed into villages near the volcano base Tuesday night...read more...

www.newsday.com/20111228  

LATEST GLOBAL VOLCANISM REPORT

21 December-27 December 2011

not: this report only contains update informations until December- 27- 2011 and none of the previous days

New Activity/Unrest: | Galeras, Colombia | Lokon-Empung, Sulawesi | Tungurahua, Ecuador | Zubair Group, Yemen
Ongoing Activity: | Fuego, Guatemala | Hierro, Canary Islands (Spain) | Karymsky, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) | Kilauea, Hawaii (USA) | Kizimen, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) | Popocatépetl, México | Puyehue-Cordón Caulle, Central Chile | Sakura-jima, Kyushu | Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia)

This page is updated on Wednesdays. Please see the GVP Home Page for news of the latest significant activity.

GLOBAL VOLCANISM PROGRAM (GVP) Smithsonian/ USGS  
     
 

 

 

                             

YEAR:

2011

 

MONTH:

DECEMBER

 

DAY:

28

             

SECTION 1 >

SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info) visit solen.info for more informations   INTERNAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*  
LAST REPORT (previous day) SOLAR PARAMETERS (for more detailled informations on the Solar activity go to : solen.info-/ or: SunSpotWatch.com CORONAL HOLES (solen.info CORONAL HOLES (CH)   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: ESTIMATED MAXIMUM MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  
  SOUTHERN POLAR CH (S-CH)    

DEC-27- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
CH 490 (S-CH Extension)       2011- December - 28  
  128 flare class > C M X GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY: EARTH FACING ON: QUIET 5.5- 7.0

2

 

SOLAR FLUX:

total flares (number)> 10 --   50- 112 nT S-CH DEC 23- 24 UNSETTLED 2011- December - 29
  140 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s) 271-344 X RAY
BACKGROUND FLUX>

B 5.5

CH 490 (S-CH Extension) DEC 26- 27   MINOR STORM 5.5- 6.5

1-2

 
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

  MAJOR STORM 2011- December - 30  
  01 ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latitude: appr. EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED

ESTIMATED CME ARRIVALS   5.5- > 7.0

INCREASING

  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
                    IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES:  
ACTIVE REGION AND CH                  

remarks to Earthquake probability:

Three major partial CMEs are expected to impact from Dec 27- 29. "Immidiate effects*( left) will follow soon afterv .If no further CME follows, the Earthquake probability will raise appr from Dec 30 on ( for 3- 4) days

 
                   
                   
11380 56° - 70° W 20° S              
11383 38°- 52° W 03° N              
11384 28° - 42 ° W 12° N             TODAY CME ARRIVALS : STRENGTH(1-3 VOLCANO ERUPTIONS

PROBABILITY:

CURRENTLY LOW

 
solen.info/20111227 11385 49°- 63° W 31° S             DEC- 28/ 1:00 UTC 2 RAPIC MELTING PROCESSES LEVEL 3: appr from DEC- 30 on!  
  11386 18°- 04° E 15° S DEC- 28           APPROACHING CMEs >> 3 STORMS STRENGTH: M 8.0  
NEWLY EMERGED> 11388 69°- 55° E 23° E JAN- 01 DEC- 27/ 4:25 UTC C8.9/1F at 04:22 UTC   Partial Halo DEC 29/30   NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION / last 24 hours:  
                    geomagnetic storms (G)  

radio blackouts (R)

  solar radiation storms(S) --  

SECTION 2

CME EVENT SECTION:    
DEC- 27- 2011

Another minor CME was reported by solen, info: DEC- 27/ 4:25 UTC: AR 11386 Flare: C8.9/1F at 04:22 UTC. This event was associated with at least a partial halo CME where quite a bit of material was hurled northwards.December 27: At least a partial halo CME was associated with the C8 flare in region 11386 early in the day. This CME is fairly slow and could reach Earth on December 30.

remarks: The flare occured much earlier as STEREO AHEAD images suggest. STEREO however had a data gap after oo:09 until after 6 UTC STEREO BEHIND however shows a minor weak CME after 4:15 UTC. This event will- as I suppose not have major effects.

 
EVENT NR: 62/ ESTIMATED STRENGTH (1-3)> 1 11386 69°- 55° E 23° E JAN- 01 DEC- 27/ 4:25 UTC C8.9/1F at 04:22 UTC     DEC 29/30  
CME FROM FILAMENT ERUPTION ON DEC- 26- 2011> Another larger filament eruption also occured on December 26 around 11:26, pretty well on the Central meridian ( means: in a perfect Earth aiming position!!) . Again the eruption took place near but this time East of AR 11384 with a larger CME at 11:26 UTC. .(3) (4) The event formed out a huge spiral of prominences over hundredthousands of Sun miles along the erupted filament for hours after . STEREO(1) (2) shows an impressive eruption of sun matter from this event which mixed with a major flare in AR 11380. On SoHo, the CME appeared as a partial halo around the Northern Sun hemisphere.This third stronger Earth directed CME within 3 following days will likely arrive some time on Dec 28- 29 . At all the three CMEcurrently on their way to Earth might very likely create the background for major natural catastrophies expectable in the following week from DEC 27/28 until January 4th. Immidiate effects such as volcano activities, storms and rapid snow/ ice meltdowns would set in soon after the arrival of the first CME Dec 27/ 28) . Earthquake in the aftermath will likely delay until DEC 30/ 31 ( if no further CME impacts). This means a high risk and probability for a really major large Earth/ Sea quake from Dec 30 on (more likely on Dec 31- January 03 2012) but with a high magnitude, that could exceed M 8.0 ( what is regarded as sufficiant to trigger a significant Tsunami! . Further data/ informations will be available in the next days!  
EVENT NR,.: 61/ ESTIMATED STRENGTH (1-3)> 2 CENTRAL MERIDIAN filament eruption DEC- 26/ 11:26 UTC several hours GEMINI ( solen.info)December 26: At least a partial halo CME was observed after a filament eruption across the central meridian near region 11384. This CME could reach Earth on December 29. DEC- 28- 29  

TODAY`s CME ARRIVALS ( CME Tracking)

                         

 

CME DATA ( SOLAR) CME ARRIVAL DATA ( EARTH)  

INTERNAL CME EVENT NR.- 59/ 60

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION (longitude)

latidude: EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: REMARKS HIGHEST VALUES ON ACE ( duration) GOES FIRST IMPACT time/ longitude   time/ longitudes/ values> 100 nT *internal relative mass value* main impact region ( geographic)* GOES peak peak value ( magnetic density (nanoTesla)* intern. Nr  
11380 28° - 42° W 20° S   DEC-25/ 18:16 UTC M4.0/1N
medium sitzed CME, interferred with previous CME impact
DEC- 28/ 11:10- 17:50 UTC DEC- 28/ 12:00 UTC  

9:30- 22:30 UTC( = EASTERN EUROPE/ TURKEY until ALASKA )

390 WESTERN ATLANTIC 15:00 UTC(CENTRAL ATLANTIC) 160 nT 60  
North West of AR 11384 strong filament eruption/ NW of AR 11384 Dec- 25- 2011/ 00: 25 UTC 00.10- 4:00 UTC weak minor CME impact   DEC- 27 17:00 UTC   DEC- 27/21:00-UTC- DEC 28/ 3:00 UTC(=CANADA UNTIL JAPAN) 75

CANADA- KAMCHATKA penins.

21:00- 24:00 UTC (EASTERN PACIFIC/ ALASKA) 125 nT 59  
               

* test value

  * GOEShp      

GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT

          related CME ARRIVAL internal event number  

- THE REGIONS ARE NAMED AFTER SEISMIC ACTIVE REGIONS AND TECTONIC PLATES. ( Red backcolor) means the region those were hit relatively strongest by the latest CME: last updated on: DEC 19- 2011

remark, The multiple CMEs unleashed after Christmans have a global impact with some higher values in specific regions (as displayed below)

  DECEMBER- 27/ 28- 2011/ later  
SOUTH WEST ASIA (INDONESIA, PHILLIPINES) CENTRAL PACIFIC: JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NORTH AMERICA/USA - WESTERN PACIFIC: ALASKA NEW ZEALAND VANUATU CENTRAL AMERICA- COLUMBIA, PERU ... ATLANTIC & AMERICA SOUTH EURASIA & AFRICA ASIA MINOR  
     

SECTION 3 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

 
TODAY`s REPORTS: MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL POSSIBLY FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY!    
special remarks:

note: the correctness of data published by the offical institutes such as NOAA or EMSC is the responsibility of these institutes not mine

 
       

VOLCANOES

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL LOCAL SURVEY GOOGLE EARTH WEBCAM

SOURCES:

 
  GAMALAMA 0°48'0"N/ 127°20'0"E DEC- 28- 2011 LEVEL 3 of 4 Badan Geology GAMALAMA none    
GAMALAMA: According to news articles, at least three people were killed and 1,000-2,600 more from several villages were displaced by lahars from Gamalama during on 27-28 December. The lahars destroyed many homes in the Tubo and Tofure villages and along the Togorara and Marikurubu rivers. The Alert Level remains at 3 (on a scale from 1-4). GVP  
TODAY s NEW EVENTS LOKON-EMPUNG- pos 1°21'30"N/ 124°47'30"E DEC- 27- 2011 level 3 of 4 PHIVOLCS LOKON-EMPUNG none GVP  
LOKON-EMPUNG-/ Sulawesi/ Indonesia: According to a news article, three explosions from the Tompaluan crater, in the saddle between the Lokon-Empung peaks were recorded by the CVGHM on 27 December. CVGHM recorded 23 deep volcanic tremors and 40 shallow volcanic tremors. Residents and tourists were not permitted within a 2.5 km radius of the crater. Based on visual and seismic observations during 27-28 December, the Alert Level remained at 3 (on a scale of 1-4). The Darwin VAAC reported a low-level eruption on 27 December based on media reports GVP  
STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: STRENGTH DIRECTION CATHEGORY

SOURCES:

 

ATLANTIC STORM DAGMAR

Storm Dagmar Cuts Power, Causes Damage Across Nordic Region

Dec. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The storm Dagmar lashed the Nordic countries with Hurricane-strength winds, cutting power and Norwegian natural-gas exports as it damaged buildings, shut roads and halted train traffic.About 264,500 homes in Finland, Sweden and Norway were without electricity as utilities such as Vattenfall AB worked to restore power after the storm yesterday toppled trees and damaged lines, according to estimates today by companies and grid operators...read more..

www.businessweek.com/20111228  
 

 

 

                             

YEAR:

2011

 

MONTH:

DECEMBER

 

DAY:

27

             

SECTION 1 >

SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info) visit solen.info for more informations   INTERNAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*  
LAST REPORT (previous day) SOLAR PARAMETERS (for more detailled informations on the Solar activity go to : solen.info-/ or: SunSpotWatch.com CORONAL HOLES (solen.info CORONAL HOLES (CH)   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: ESTIMATED MAXIMUM MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  
  SOUTHERN POLAR CH (S-CH)    

DEC-26- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
CH 490 (S-CH Extension)       2011- December - 27  
  123 flare class > C M X GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY: EARTH FACING ON: QUIET 5.5- 6.5

1-2

 

SOLAR FLUX:

total flares (number)> 04 02   50- 112 nT S-CH DEC 23- 24 UNSETTLED 2011- December - 28
  145 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s) 271-404 X RAY
BACKGROUND FLUX>

B 5.8

CH 490 (S-CH Extension) DEC 26- 27   MINOR STORM 5.5- 7.0

2-3

 
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

  MAJOR STORM 2011- December - 29  
  00 ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latitude: appr. EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED

ESTIMATED CME ARRIVALS   5.5- 7.0

2-3

  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
                    IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES:  
                   

remarks to Earthquake probability:

Three major partial CMEs are expected to impact from Dec 27- 29. "Immidiate effects*( left) will follow soon afterv .If no further CME follows, the Earthquake probability will raise appr from Dec 30 on ( for 3- 4) days

 
                     
                     
11380 43° - 57° W 20° S              
                     
rotating out of view> 11382 79°- 93° W 18° S             DEC- 27/ 28/29> VOLCANO ERUPTIONS PROBABILITY:  
  11383 26°- 40° W 03° N             APPROACHING CMEs >> 3 RAPIC MELTING PROCESSES LEVEL 3: appr frm DEC- 30 on?  
  11384 16° - 30 ° W 12° N                 STORMS STRENGTH: M 8.0  
  11385 38°- 52° W 31° S             NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION / last 24 hours:  
  11386 32°- 18° E 15° S DEC- 28           geomagnetic storms (G)  

radio blackouts (R)

  solar radiation storms(S) --  

SECTION 2

CME EVENT SECTION:    
INTERNAL CME EVEN NR.: 62 AR 11386 18° E 16° S DEC- 30 DEC- 27/ 4:14 UTC C8.9/1F at 04:22 UTC. MINOR      
  61 CENTRAL MERIDIAN filament eruption DEC- 26/ 11:26 UTC several hours GEMINI ( solen.info)December 26: At least a partial halo CME was observed after a filament eruption across the central meridian near region 11384. This CME could reach Earth on December 29. DEC- 28- 29  
  60 11380 M4/N1 flare DEC- 25/ after 18: 16 UTC     (solen.info) M4.0/1N at 18:16 (associated with a moderate type II and a strong type IV radio sweep, a CME and a proton flux enhancement) own remark. CME was possibly a multiple event out of three CMEs(?) DEC- 28  
  59 North West of AR 11384 strong filament eruption/ NW of AR 11384 Dec- 25- 2011/ 00: 25 UTC 00.10- 4:00 UTC NORTH OF GEMINI The event was very strong . As later submitted SDOb images show, there were two filament eruptions one after another. The CMEs were partially halo and are partially Earth directed. Aproximate arrival time . between DEC 27- 28 DEC 27- 28- 2011  
CME FROM FILAMENT ERUPTION ON DEC- 26- 2011> Another larger filament eruption also occured on December 26 around 11:26, pretty well on the Central meridian ( means: in a perfect Earth aiming position!!) . Again the eruption took place near but this time East of AR 11384 with a larger CME at 11:26 UTC. .(3) (4) The event formed out a huge spiral of prominences over hundredthousands of Sun miles along the erupted filament for hours after . STEREO(1) (2) shows an impressive eruption of sun matter from this event which mixed with a major flare in AR 11380. On SoHo, the CME appeared as a partial halo around the Northern Sun hemisphere.This third stronger Earth directed CME within 3 following days will likely arrive some time on Dec 28- 29 . At all the three CMEcurrently on their way to Earth might very likely create the background for major natural catastrophies expectable in the following week from DEC 27/28 until January 4th. Immidiate effects such as volcano activities, storms and rapid snow/ ice meltdowns would set in soon after the arrival of the first CME Dec 27/ 28) . Earthquake in the aftermath will likely delay until DEC 30/ 31 ( if no further CME impacts). This means a high risk and probability for a really major large Earth/ Sea quake from Dec 30 on (more likely on Dec 31- January 03 2012) but with a high magnitude, that could exceed M 8.0 ( what is regarded as sufficiant to trigger a significant Tsunami! . Further data/ informations will be available in the next days!  
MULTIPLE STRONGER CMEs ERUPTED ON DEC- 25- 2011 >

A larger filament eruption North East of AR 11381 was observed on December 25- 2011. The main eruption began at 00.29 UTC and lasted until 4:00 UTC. A short but major CME was ejected soon after midnight. The eruption continued The event could be observed both on STEREO Ahead (1) and STEREO Behind (2). ONly STEREO"Ahead" had a transmission gap between 00:09 and 05:09 UTC.. On SoHo, ths CME appeared as a faint but partial halo around the Northern Sun hemisphere, but seemed to be rather massive. The event was partially Earth directed. Until its arrival at GOES, appr. betweeen DEC 27- 28 it is difficult to judge, now, how much of this CME will arrive on Earth or where and how strong therefor the effects might be . Until then,I will keep you updated at least with two checkups per day!

The second CME on Dec - as described by solen. info- was a long event lasting until the morning of Dec 26. SDO AIA 335( blue) images show three short "flashes"- usually some kind of indicator for a CME. The first at 17: 11 UTC (7) , a second at 18:29 (8) and a third flash at 20:29 UTC (9) Solen info describes the events as C flares ( the one around 18: 29 was an M flare), but maybe there were three minor CMEs unleashed one after another mixing up to what is to see on SoHo and Stereo . These three CMEs one one day - all having Earth directed parts- must be regarded as a serious threat, as they could likely cause significant effects such as volcano eruptions, heavy storms heavier Earthquakes in the aftermath, possibly with matgnitudes above M 8.0- enough to trigger a tsunami! I will have a look on its arrival and update this rpeort as soon as the first CME will arrive sometimes between dec 27- 28.

 
                                 

GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT

        internal event number related CME ARRIVAL UTC:  

- THE REGIONS ARE NAMED AFTER SEISMIC ACTIVE REGIONS AND TECTONIC PLATES. ( Red backcolor) means the region those were hit relatively strongest by the latest CME: last updated on: DEC 19- 2011

ongoing event DECEMBER- 25- 2011/ 5:00  
SOUTH WEST ASIA (INDONESIA, PHILLIPINES) CENTRAL PACIFIC: JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NORTH AMERICA/USA - WESTERN PACIFIC: ALASKA NEW ZEALAND VANUATU CENTRAL AMERICA- COLUMBIA, PERU ... ATLANTIC & AMERICA SOUTH EURASIA & AFRICA ASIA MINOR  

TODAY`s CME EVENTS:

                             

DEC- 27- 2011

INTERNAL CME- EVENT NR: 62

Another minor CME was reported by solen, info:AR 11386 Flare: C8.9/1F at 04:22 UTC. This event was associated with at least a partial halo CME where quite a bit of material was hurled northwards.December 27: At least a partial halo CME was associated with the C8 flare in region 11386 early in the day. This CME is fairly slow and could reach Earth on December 30.

remarks: The flare occured much earlier as STEREO AHEAD images suggest. STEREO however had a data gap after oo:09 until after 6 UTC STEREO BEHIND however shows a minor weak CME after 4:15 UTC. This event will- as I suppose not have major effects.

 
20111227/00:09 UTC 20111227/ 5:25 UTC 20111227/ 4:14 UTC 20111227/ 4:42 UTC 20111227/ 5:42 UTC   Today`s GOEShp Magnetometer plot - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD  
   
STEREO "Ahead" STEREO " Behind" SDO /AIA SDO /AIA SoHO    
     

SECTION 3 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

 
TODAY`s REPORTS: MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL POSSIBLY FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY!    
special remarks:

note: the correctness of data published by the offical institutes such as NOAA or EMSC is the responsibility of these institutes not mine

 
LATEST GLOBAL EARTHQUAKES ABOVE M 6.0

NAME of REGION:

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: MAGNITUDE DEPTH CATHEGORY CLICK TO FIND LOCATION WITH GOOGLE EARTH:  
  SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA 51.84 N ; 95.85 E 2011-12-27 15:21 UTC M 6.5 10 km unknown not available  

 

               
  M 6.5 - SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA - 2011-12-27 15:21 UTC    

 

 

                               

YEAR:

2011

 

MONTH:

DECEMBER

 

DAY:

26

             

SECTION 1 >

SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info) visit solen.info for more informations   INTERNAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*  
LAST REPORT (previous day) SOLAR PARAMETERS (for more detailled informations on the Solar activity go to : solen.info-/ or: SunSpotWatch.com CORONAL HOLES (solen.info CORONAL HOLES (CH)   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: ESTIMATED MAXIMUM MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  
  SOUTHERN POLAR CH (S-CH)    

DEC-25- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
CH 490 (S-CH Extension)       2011- December - 26  
  66 flare class > C M X GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY: EARTH FACING ON: QUIET 5.5- 6.5

1

 

SOLAR FLUX:

total flares (number)> 06 01   50- 112 nT S-CH DEC 23- 24 UNSETTLED 2011- December - 27
  142 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s) 343-419 X RAY
BACKGROUND FLUX>

B 5.8

CH 490 (S-CH Extension) DEC 26- 27   MINOR STORM 5.5- 6.5

1-2

 
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

  MAJOR STORM 2011- December - 28  
  01 ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latitude: appr. EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED

ESTIMATED CME ARRIVALS   5.5- 7.5

2-3

  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
                    IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES:  
                       
rotating out of view>                    
                     
11380 28° - 42° W 20° S   DEC-25/ 18:16 UTC M4.0/1N
CANCER
Partially DEC -28    
  11381 53° - 67°W 16° S              
  11382 66°- 80° W 18° S             * NEXT CME IMPACT> DEC- 27/ 28 PROBABILITY:  
  11383 13°E- 27° W 03° N             APPROACHING CMEs >> 2 HIGHEST ALERT FROM DEC 27/ 28 on!    
  11384 03° - 17 ° W 12° N                   STRENGTH:    
NEWLY EMERGED> 11385 25°- 39° W 31° S             NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION / last 24 hours:  
NEWLY EMERGED> 11386 45°- 31° E 15° S DEC- 28           geomagnetic storms (G)  

radio blackouts (R)

  solar radiation storms(S) --  
FILAMENT ACTIVITIES REGION EVENT CME AT DURATION /ERUPTION APPR. SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME: DESCRIPTION

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL

 

DEC- 26- 2011

INTERNAL CME EVENT NR.: 61

CENTRAL MERIDIAN filament eruption DEC- 26/ 11:26 UTC several hours GEMINI ( solen.info)December 26: At least a partial halo CME was observed after a filament eruption across the central meridian near region 11384. This CME could reach Earth on December 29. DEC- 28- 29  

SECTION 2

CME EVENT SECTION:    
INTERNAL CME EVENT NR.: 60 11380 M5/N1 flare DEC- 25/ after 18: 16 UTC     (solen.info) M4.0/1N at 18:16 (associated with a moderate type II and a strong type IV radio sweep, a CME and a proton flux enhancement) own remark. CME was possibly a multiple event out of three CMEs(?) DEC- 28  
INTERNAL CMME EVENT NR.: 59 North West of AR 11384 strong filament eruption/ NW of AR 11384 Dec- 25- 2011/ 00: 25 UTC 00.10- 4:00 UTC NORTH OF GEMINI The event was very strong . As later submitted SDOb images show, there were two filament eruptions one after another. The CMEs were partially halo and are partially Earth directed. Aproximate arrival time . between DEC 27- 28 DEC 27- 28- 2011  
MULTIPLE STRONGER CMEs ERUPTED ON DEC- 25- 2011 >

A larger filament eruption North East of AR 11381 was observed on December 25- 2011. The main eruption began at 00.29 UTC and lasted until 4:00 UTC. A short but major CME was ejected soon after midnight. The eruption continued The event could be observed both on STEREO Ahead (1) and STEREO Behind (2). ONly STEREO"Ahead" had a transmission gap between 00:09 and 05:09 UTC.. On SoHo, ths CME appeared as a faint but partial halo around the Northern Sun hemisphere, but seemed to be rather massive. The event was partially Earth directed. Until its arrival at GOES, appr. betweeen DEC 27- 28 it is difficult to judge, now, how much of this CME will arrive on Earth or where and how strong therefor the effects might be . Until then,I will keep you updated at least with two checkups per day!

The second CME on Dec - as described by solen. info- was a long event lasting until the morning of Dec 26. SDO AIA 335( blue) images show three short "flashes"- usually some kind of indicator for a CME. The first at 17: 11 UTC (7) , a second at 18:29 (8) and a third flash at 20:29 UTC (9) Solen info describes the events as C flares ( the one around 18: 29 was an M flare), but maybe there were three minor CMEs unleashed one after another mixing up to what is to see on SoHo and Stereo . These three CMEs one one day - all having Earth directed parts- must be regarded as a serious threat, as they could likely cause significant effects such as volcano eruptions, heavy storms heavier Earthquakes in the aftermath, possibly with matgnitudes above M 8.0- enough to trigger a tsunami! I will have a look on its arrival and update this rpeort as soon as the first CME will arrive sometimes between dec 27- 28.

 

TODAY`s CME ARRIVALS ( CME Tracking)

                         

GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT

        internal event number related CME ARRIVAL UTC:  

- THE REGIONS ARE NAMED AFTER SEISMIC ACTIVE REGIONS AND TECTONIC PLATES. ( Red backcolor) means the region those were hit relatively strongest by the latest CME: last updated on: DEC 19- 2011

ongoing event DECEMBER- 25- 2011/ 5:00  
SOUTH WEST ASIA (INDONESIA, PHILLIPINES) CENTRAL PACIFIC: JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NORTH AMERICA/USA - WESTERN PACIFIC: ALASKA NEW ZEALAND VANUATU CENTRAL AMERICA- COLUMBIA, PERU ... ATLANTIC & AMERICA SOUTH EURASIA & AFRICA ASIA MINOR  

TODAY`s CME EVENTS:

                             

CME FROM FILAMENT ERUPTION ON DEC- 26- 2011>

INTERNAL CME EVENT NR.: 60

Another larger filament eruption also occured on December 26 around 11:26, pretty well on the Central meridian ( means: in a perfect Earth aiming position!!) . Again the eruption took place near but this time East of AR 11384 with a larger CME at 11:26 UTC. .(3) (4) The event formed out a huge spiral of prominences over hundredthousands of Sun miles along the erupted filament for hours after . STEREO(1) (2) shows an impressive eruption of sun matter from this event which mixed with a major flare in AR 11380. On SoHo, the CME appeared as a partial halo around the Northern Sun hemisphere.This third stronger Earth directed CME within 3 following days will likely arrive some time on Dec 28- 29 . At all the three CMEcurrently on their way to Earth might very likely create the background for major natural catastrophies expectable in the following week from DEC 27/28 until January 4th. Immidiate effects such as volcano activities, storms and rapid snow/ ice meltdowns would set in soon after the arrival of the first CME Dec 27/ 28) . Earthquake in the aftermath will likely delay until DEC 30/ 31 ( if no further CME impacts). This means a high risk and probability for a really major large Earth/ Sea quake from Dec 30 on (more likely on Dec 31- January 03 2012) but with a high magnitude, that could exceed M 8.0 ( what is regarded as sufficiant to trigger a significant Tsunami! . Further data/ informations will be available in the next days!  
(1) 20111226/ 12:09 (2) 20111226/ 13:54 UTC (3) 20111226/ 11:26 UTC (4) 20111226/ 12:43 UTC /5) 20111226/ 15:30 UTC   Today`s GOEShp Magnetometer plot - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD  
   
STEREO "Ahead" STEREO " Behind" SDO /AIA SDO /AIA SoHO    
     

SECTION 3 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

 
TODAY`s REPORTS: MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL POSSIBLY FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY!    
special remarks:

note: the correctness of data published by the offical institutes such as NOAA or EMSC is the responsibility of these institutes not mine

 
LATEST GLOBAL EARTHQUAKES ABOVE M 6.0

NAME of REGION:

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: MAGNITUDE DEPTH CATHEGORY CLICK TO FIND LOCATION WITH GOOGLE EARTH:  
  TONGA 16.16 S ; 173.80 W 2011-12-26 04:48 UTC M 6.1 69 km no report not available  
STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: STRENGTH DIRECTION CATHEGORY

SOURCES:

 

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Indian Ocean -
Tropical cyclone 03s (Grant) was located approximately 150 nm northeast of Darwin, Australia.
globaldisasterwatch  

NEW ZEALAND/ AUSTRALIA

Cyclone winds lashing NT peninsula

TROPICAL Cyclone Grant is bringing winds up to 110 km/h to the Cobourg Peninsula in the Northern Territory and residents are being warned of dangerous storm tides when it crosses the coast. The weather bureau says the cyclone, which formed early on Christmas morning, is expected to cross the Cobourg peninsula on Christmas night and move into the Van Diemen Gulf on Boxing Day. Darwin is expected to escape its full force, but could still be hit by damaging winds. ...read more...

www.heraldsun.com.au  
SPECIAL REPORTS:                

 

Spectacular Christmas Comet Amazes Skywatchers in Chile

A stunning comet that survived a recent brush with the sun is amazing astronomers again, this time in dazzling new photos captured just before sunrise over Chile.The comet Lovejoy may not be the famed Star of Bethlehem, but it still provided a jaw-dropping sight for astronomer Gabriel Brammer, photographed the comet rising ahead of the sun on Dec. 22 at Paranal Observatory in Chile's high Atacama Desert.  ...read more...

www.space.com  
       
 

 

 

                             

YEAR:

2011

 

MONTH:

DECEMBER

 

DAY:

25

             

SECTION 1 >

SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info) visit solen.info for more informations   INTERNAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*  
LAST REPORT (previous day) SOLAR PARAMETERS (for more detailled informations on the Solar activity go to : solen.info-/ or: SunSpotWatch.com CORONAL HOLES (solen.info CORONAL HOLES (CH)   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: ESTIMATED MAXIMUM MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  
  SOUTHERN POLAR CH (S-CH)    

DEC-24- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
CH 490 (S-CH Extension)       2011- December - 25  
  90 flare class > C M X GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY: EARTH FACING ON: QUIET 5.5- 6.5

1

 

SOLAR FLUX:

total flares (number)> 04 --   65- 105 nT S-CH DEC 23- 24 UNSETTLED 2011- December - 26
  142 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s) 339-384 X RAY
BACKGROUND FLUX>

B 5.7

CH 490 (S-CH Extension) DEC 26- 27   MINOR STORM 5.5- 6.5

1

 
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

  MAJOR STORM 2011- December - 27  
  01 ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latitude: appr. EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED

ESTIMATED CME ARRIVALS   5.5- 6.5

1

  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
                    IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES:  
                       
rotating out of view>                    
                   
  11380 14° - 28° W 20° S            
  11381 53° - 67°W 16° S            
                  * NEXT CME IMPACT> DEC- 25 after 5:00 UTC PROBABILITY:  
  11383 01° E- 13°WE 03° N DEC- 25           check for updates    
  11384 12 ° E - 02 ° W 12° N DEC- 25           CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs 2   STRENGTH:    
NEWLY EMERGED> 11385 13°- 27° W 31° S             NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION / last 24 hours:  
NEWLY EMERGED> 11386 58°- 44° E 15° S DEC- 28           geomagnetic storms (G)  

radio blackouts (R)

  solar radiation storms(S) --  
FILAMENT ACTIVITIES REGION EVENT CME AT DURATION /ERUPTION APPR. SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME: DESCRIPTION

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL

 

DEC- 25- 2011 >

INTERNAL CME EVENT NR.: 59

North West of AR 11384 short but massive partially halo CME Dec- 25- 2011/ 00: 25 UTC 00.10- 4:00 UTC NORTH OF GEMINI The event was partially Earth directed. Until its arrival at GOES, appr. between DEC 27- 28 it is difficult to judge now, how much of this CME will arrive on Earth and where and how strong therefore the effects might be DEC 25- 26- 2011  

SECTION 2

CME EVENT SECTION:    
     

TODAY`s CME ARRIVALS ( CME Tracking)

                         

DEC- 25- 2011

CME DATA ( SOLAR) CME ARRIVAL DATA ( EARTH)  

GOES measured a solar wind shock this morning around 5:00 UTC. likely the arrival of the minor CME obseved on Dec 22/ 2:00 UTC. Updates on this event will follow

INTERNAL CME EV ENT NR: 58

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION (longitude)

latidude: EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: REMARKS HIGHEST VALUES ON ACE ( duration) GOES FIRST IMPACT time/ longitude   time/ longitudes/ values> 100 nT *internal relative mass value main impact region ( geographic)* GOES peak peak value ( magnetic density (nanoTesla)* intern. Nr  
11381 17° - 41°W 16° S   DEC- 22/ 2:00 UTC associated to filament eruption CME impact was as expected minimal and will not have significant effects. 17 UTC DEC- 25- 2011/ 5:00 UTC (=longitude) 75° E   12:00 - 22:00 UTC- 60 CENTRAL EUROPE / EAST- ATLANTIC

15:00 UTC:

112 nT

112 nT 58  
                    * GOEShp      

GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT

        internal event number related CME ARRIVAL UTC:  

- THE REGIONS ARE NAMED AFTER SEISMIC ACTIVE REGIONS AND TECTONIC PLATES. ( Red backcolor) means the region those were hit relatively strongest by the latest CME: last updated on: DEC 19- 2011

ongoing event DECEMBER- 25- 2011/ 5:00  
SOUTH WEST ASIA (INDONESIA, PHILLIPINES) CENTRAL PACIFIC: JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NORTH AMERICA/USA - WESTERN PACIFIC: ALASKA NEW ZEALAND VANUATU CENTRAL AMERICA- COLUMBIA, PERU ... ATLANTIC & AMERICA SOUTH EURASIA & AFRICA ASIA MINOR  

TODAY`s CME EVENTS:

                             

DEC- 25- 2011

A larger filament eruption North East of AR 11381 was observed on December 25- 2011. The main eruption began at 00.29 UTC and lasted until 4:00 UTC. A short but major CME was ejected soon after midnight. The eruption continued. The event could be observed both on STEREO Ahead (1) and STEREO Behind (2). Only STEREO"Ahead" had a transmission gap between 00:09 and 05:09 UTC. On SoHo, this CME appeared as a faint but partial halo around the Northern Sun hemisphere, but seemed to be rather massive. The event was partially Earth directed. Until its arrival at GOES, appr. betweeen DEC 27- 28 it is difficult to judge, now, how much of this CME will arrive on Earth or where and how strong therefor the effects might be . Until then,I will keep you updated at least with two checkups per day!

 
(1) 20111225/ 5:09 UTC (2) 20111225/ 4:25 UTC (3) 20111225/ 0:29 UTC (4) 20111225/ 3:58 UTC (5) 20111225/ 4:54 UTC   Today`s GOEShp Magnetometer plot - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD  
   
STEREO "Ahead" STEREO " Behind" SDO /AIA SDO /AIA SoHO    
INTERNAL CME EVENT NR:: 59A/ 59B The second CME on Dec - as described by solen. info- was a long event lasting until the morning of Dec 26. SDO AIA 335( blue) images show three short "flashes"- usually some kind of indicator for a CME. The first at 17: 11 UTC (7) , a second at 18:29 (8) and a third flash at 20:29 UTC (9) Solen info describes the events as C flares ( the one around 18: 29 was an M flare), but maybe there were three minor CMEs unleashed one after another mixing up to what is to see on SoHo and Stereo . These three CMEs one one day - all having Earth directed parts- must be regarded as a serious threat, as they could likely cause significant effects such as volcano eruptions, heavy storms heavier Earthquakes in the aftermath, possibly with matgnitudes above M 8.0- enough to trigger a tsunami! I will have a look on its arrival and update this rpeort as soon as the first CME will arrive sometimes between dec 27- 28.  
(6) 20111225/ 21:09 UTC (7) 20111225/ 17:11 UTC (8) 20111225/ 18:29 UTC (9) 20111225/ 20:29 UTC (10) 20111225/ 0.30 UTC      
   
STEREO "Ahead" STEREO " Behind" SDO /AIA SDO /AIA SoHO    
     

SECTION 3 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

 
TODAY`s REPORTS: MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL POSSIBLY FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY!    
special remarks:

note: the correctness of data published by the offical institutes such as NOAA or EMSC is the responsibility of these institutes not mine

 
SEVERE WEATHERS>

DATE AND UTC- TIME:

NAME / EVENT/ REGION

LOCATION (long/lat) STRENGTH DIRECTION CATHEGORY

SOURCES:

 

 

Toronto drenched in record-breaking rainfall

Toronto has gotten a major soaking and Tuesday’s rainfall has set a new one-day record. As of 7 p.m., Pearson airport got 42.2 millimetres of rain, exceeding the previous one-day rainfall record of 20.2 millimetres set in 2005. Click here for the latest forecast...read more...

toronto/citynews/news/20111225  
STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: STRENGTH DIRECTION CATHEGORY

SOURCES:

 

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Pacific -
Tropical cyclone 05a was located approximately 485 nm south-southwest of Karachi, Pakistan.
globaldisasterwatch/ 20111225  

 

     
CLIMATE                
 

Woman hurt as 'tornado' hits Greater Manchester

A woman has been taken to hospital after what has been described as a "tornado" struck part of Greater Manchester. A sudden gust of wind toppled a chimney in Heaton Moor, Stockport, at about 14:30 GMT. The woman was taken to Stepping Hill Hospital with shock and cuts and bruises, said a fire service spokesman.There are also reports of wind damage in Blackburn, Lancashire....read more...

 

www.bbc.co.uk  
 

 

 

                             

YEAR:

2011

 

MONTH:

DECEMBER

 

DAY:

24

             

SECTION 1 >

SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info) visit solen.info for more informations   INTERNAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*  
LAST REPORT (previous day) SOLAR PARAMETERS (for more detailled informations on the Solar activity go to : solen.info-/ or: SunSpotWatch.com CORONAL HOLES (solen.info CORONAL HOLES (CH)   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: ESTIMATED MAXIMUM MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  
  SOUTHERN POLAR CH (S-CH)    

DEC-23- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
CH 490 (S-CH Extension)       2011- December - 24  
  123 flare class > C M X GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY: EARTH FACING ON: QUIET 5.5- 6.5

1-2

 

SOLAR FLUX:

total flares (number)> 07 --   65- 105 nT S-CH DEC 23- 24 UNSETTLED 2011- December - 25
  138 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s) 348-439 X RAY
BACKGROUND FLUX>

B 4.7

CH 490 (S-CH Extension) DEC 26- 27   MINOR STORM 5.5- 6.5

1

 
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

Since October 2011, mainly filament activities and eruptions were the predominant peak activities producing CMEs. The siginificant increase of the size of single sun spots observed since October 2012 continued. . Since middle of December- again significant flare and CME activities in active sun spots regions could be observed again. Currrently- Dec 24 one of the largest sun spots observed this year is rotating into an Earth facing O° position

  MAJOR STORM 2011- December - 26  
  01 ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latitude: appr. EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED

ESTIMATED CME ARRIVALS   5.5- 6.5

1

  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
                    IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES:  
                       
rotating out of view>                    
                   
                   
                   
  11380 04°E - 18° W 20° S           * NEXT CME IMPACT>   PROBABILITY:  
  11381 43° - 57°W 16° S               HIGH from DEC 19- 23  
  11382 37°- 51° W 16° S             CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs : 01   STRENGTH:    
  11383 15°- 01° E 03° N DEC- 25           NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION / last 24 hours:  
  11384 25 °- 11° E 12° N DEC- 25           geomagnetic storms (G)  

radio blackouts (R)

  solar radiation storms(S) --  

REGIONS WITH THE ESTIMATED CURRENTLY HIGHEST CME EFFECTS CAUSED BY THE LATEST LISTED CME IMPACTS- THE REGIONS ARE NAMED AFTER SEISMIC ACTIVE REGIONS AND TECTONIC PLATES.

Red means the region those were hit relatively strongest by the latest CME: last updated on: DEC 19- 2011

 
SOUTH WEST ASIA (INDONESIA, PHILLIPINES) CENTRAL PACIFIC: JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NORTH AMERICA/USA - WESTERN PACIFIC: ALASKA NEW ZEALAND VANUATU CENTRAL AMERICA- COLUMBIA, PERU ... ATLANTIC & AMERICA SOUTH EURASIA & AFRICA ASIA MINOR  
DEC- 24- 2011

(1) (2) large wide CME was observed on Christmas eve- DEC 24- 2011/ at 12: 11 UTC (3) . Fortunately the two other satallites necessary to locate the source of such a CME- SDO and SoHO- show clearly that not AR 11384 (a critical AR that is just rotating into Earth facing position with one of the largest single sunspots observed this year) was the origin of this strong CME, but S 1378 which is already almost over the Western limb. This CME has NO Earth directed parts.

 
20111224/ 13: 24 UTC 20111224/ 16: 54 UTC (3) 20111224/ 12:11 UTC (4) 20111224/ 16:06     Today`s GOEShp Magnetometer plot - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD  
     
STEREO AHEAD STEREO AHEAD SDO /AIA SoHO SDO /HMI (Intensity gram)    
     

SECTION 3 >

ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG-

 
TODAY`s REPORTS: MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL POSSIBLY FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY!    
special remarks:

note: the correctness of data published by the offical institutes such as NOAA or EMSC is the responsibility of these institutes not mine

 
SPECIAL REPORT                
     
     
 

 

 

                             

YEAR:

2011

 

MONTH:

DECEMBER

 

DAY:

23

             

SECTION 1 >

SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info) visit solen.info for more informations   INTERNAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*  
LAST REPORT (previous day) SOLAR PARAMETERS (for more detailled informations on the Solar activity go to : solen.info-/ or: SunSpotWatch.com CORONAL HOLES (solen.info CORONAL HOLES (CH)   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: ESTIMATED MAXIMUM MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  
  SOUTHERN POLAR CH (S-CH)    

DEC-22- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
        2011- December - 23  
  105 flare class > C M X GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY: EARTH FACING ON: QUIET 5.5- 7.0

2

 

SOLAR FLUX:

total flares (number)> 07 --   55- 107 nT S-CH DEC 23- 24 UNSETTLED 2011- December - 24
  145 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s) 357-446 X RAY
BACKGROUND FLUX>

B 7.0

      MINOR STORM 5.5- 6.5

1-2

 
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

Since October 2011, mainly filament activities and eruptions were the predominant peak activities producing CMEs. The siginificant increase of the size of single sun spots observed since October 2012 continued. . Since middle of December- again significant flare and CME activities in active sun spots regions could be observed again. Currrently- Dec 24 one of the largest sun spots observed this year is rotating into an Earth facing O° position

  MAJOR STORM 2011- December - 25  
  02 ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latitude: appr. EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED

ESTIMATED CME ARRIVALS   5.5- 6.5

1

  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
                    IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES:  
                ACTIVE REGIONS AND CH      
rotating out of view>                  
                   
                   
                   
  11380 07° E - 07° W 20° S           * NEXT CME IMPACT>   PROBABILITY:  
  11381 31° - 45°W 16° S               HIGH from DEC 19- 23  
  11382 24°- 38° W 16° S           CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs : 01   STRENGTH:    
  11383 27°- 13° E 03° N DEC- 24           NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION / last 24 hours:  
  11384 38 °- 24° E 12° N DEC- 25           geomagnetic storms (G)  

radio blackouts (R)

  solar radiation storms(S) --  

SECTION 2

CME EVENT SECTION:    

REGIONS WITH THE ESTIMATED CURRENTLY HIGHEST CME EFFECTS CAUSED BY THE LATEST LISTED CME IMPACTS- THE REGIONS ARE NAMED AFTER SEISMIC ACTIVE REGIONS AND TECTONIC PLATES.

Red means the region those were hit relatively strongest by the latest CME: last updated on: DEC 19- 2011

 
SOUTH WEST ASIA (INDONESIA, PHILLIPINES) CENTRAL PACIFIC: JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NORTH AMERICA/USA - WESTERN PACIFIC: ALASKA NEW ZEALAND VANUATU CENTRAL AMERICA- COLUMBIA, PERU ... ATLANTIC & AMERICA SOUTH EURASIA & AFRICA ASIA MINOR  
 

 

 
     

SECTION 3 >

ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG-

 
TODAY`s REPORTS: MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL POSSIBLY FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY!    
special remarks:

note: the correctness of data published by the offical institutes such as NOAA or EMSC is the responsibility of these institutes not mine

 
LATEST GLOBAL EARTHQUAKES ABOVE M 6.0

NAME of REGION:

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: MAGNITUDE DEPTH CATHEGORY CLICK TO FIND LOCATION WITH GOOGLE EARTH:  
  SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND 43.52 S ; 172.98 E 2011-12-23 02:18 UTC M 5.8* 2 km 2 not available  

 

      *destructive event        
CHRISTCHURCH/ New Zealand/ Asutralia

Buildings damaged as two major earthquakes rock Christchurch

UPDATE 4.40pm: THE earthquake-devastated city of Christchurch has been rocked by two powerful 5.8 and 6.0 magnitude tremors, sending terrified residents onto the streets and forcing the airport to close. ...read more...

www.heraldsun.com.au  
 

New Zealand's Christchurch rocked by earthquakes

Two strong earthquakes have rocked the New Zealand city of Christchurch, closing the airport and sending residents rushing from buildings. The first 5.8 quake struck at 1358 local time (0058 GMT), the US Geological Survey said. A second of similar magnitude hit 80 minutes later. One person was hurt but there were no reports of large-scale damage. It comes 10 months after swathes of the city were destroyed by another quake. The first earthquake struck 26km (15 miles) north-east of the city at a depth of 4.7km. The second was in almost exactly the same place, the USGS said. Electricity and telecommunications services have been disrupted in some areas. ...read more...

www.bbc.co.uk/20111223  
STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: STRENGTH DIRECTION CATHEGORY

SOURCES:

 

PHILIPPINES/ TYPHOON " WASHI"/aftermath

Philippines floods: More than 1,000 remain missing

he Philippines government says 1,079 people are still missing in the wake of the devastating Typhoon Washi. More than 1,000 others are known to have died in the storm, which struck Mindanao island on Saturday. Entire neighbourhoods in Cagayan de Oro and Iligan cities were swept away. The previous estimate for the missing was just 51 but officials say the new figure includes city migrant workers whose rural relatives did not immediately realise they were missing...read more...

www.bbc.co/20111223  

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical storms.
globaldisasterwatch  

2 EMERGING CYCLONES/ AUSTRALIA >

Two cyclones expected to form off Australia this week

Dec 21 (Reuters) - Two tropical lows off northern Australia could develop into cyclones in coming days, but pose no immediate threat to mining and crop regions devastated by cyclones and flooding in early 2011. ....read more...

www.reuters.com/ 20121223  
CLIMATE                
 

Floods, landslides paralyze Colombia's holiday high season

As Colombia's holiday high season begins, many of the country's roads are impassable due to landslides, flooding and embankment collapses.The country's Highway Patrol has reported that there are six primary roads, 20 secondary and 278 tertiary with total closures....read more...

colombiareports.com  
 

 

 

                             

YEAR:

2011

 

MONTH:

DECEMBER

 

DAY:

22

             

SECTION 1 >

SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info) visit solen.info for more informations   INTERNAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*  
LAST REPORT (previous day) SOLAR PARAMETERS (for more detailled informations on the Solar activity go to : solen.info-/ or: SunSpotWatch.com CORONAL HOLES (solen.info CORONAL HOLES (CH)   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: ESTIMATED MAXIMUM MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  
  SOUTHERN POLAR CH (S-CH)    

DEC-21- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
        2011- December - 22  
  93 flare class > C M X GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY: EARTH FACING ON: QUIET 5.5- 7.0

2- 3

 

SOLAR FLUX:

total flares (number)> 16 --   60- 123 nT S-CH DEC 23- 24 UNSETTLED 2011- December - 23
  144 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s) 334-424 X RAY
BACKGROUND FLUX>

B 5.1

      MINOR STORM 5.5- 7.0

2

 
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

Since begin of October 2011, increased filament activities and eruptions producing significant CMEs were observed mainly on the Northern Sun hemisphere. The Earth currently approaches its northernmost( in former reports I wrote by error "southernmost")distance to the Sun equator ( winter soltice) but also its nearest position to the Sun

  MAJOR STORM 2011- December - 24  
  04 ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latitude: appr. EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED

ESTIMATED CME ARRIVALS   5.5- 6.5

1-2

  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
                    IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES:  
                       
rotating out of view>                    
                   
                   
                   
  11380 22°- 08° E 20° S DEC- 22         * NEXT CME IMPACT> VOLCANO ALERT PROBABILITY:  
  11381 17° - 41°W 16° S             STORMS/ GLACIAL MELTING HIGH from DEC 19- 23  
  11382 10°- 24° W 16° S DEC- 21   ( 6 C flares)       CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs : 01 ELECTROMAGNETIC STRENGTH:    
  11383 41°- 27° E 03° N DEC- 24           NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION / last 24 hours:  
NEW EMERGED> 11384 52°- 38° E 12° N     (5 C- flares)       geomagnetic storms (G)  

radio blackouts (R)

  solar radiation storms(S) --  

SECTION 2

CME EVENT SECTION:    

REGIONS WITH THE ESTIMATED CURRENTLY HIGHEST CME EFFECTS CAUSED BY THE LATEST LISTED CME IMPACTS- THE REGIONS ARE NAMED AFTER SEISMIC ACTIVE REGIONS AND TECTONIC PLATES.

Red means the region those were hit relatively strongest by the latest CME: last updated on: DEC 19- 2011

 
SOUTH WEST ASIA (INDONESIA, PHILLIPINES) CENTRAL PACIFIC: JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NORTH AMERICA/USA - WESTERN PACIFIC: ALASKA NEW ZEALAND VANUATU CENTRAL AMERICA- COLUMBIA, PERU ... ATLANTIC & AMERICA SOUTH EURASIA & AFRICA ASIA MINOR  

DEC- 22- 2011

INTERNAL CME EVENT NR.: 58

(5) On December 22- 2011 , the visible Sun disc has just 3 active regions, those nevertheless are quite large as well as quite active . AR 11384, just rotating in from the Eastern limb was still growing and will rotate into a good Earth facing position from where it might release some major flares and CMEs on the next days. The region is very active yet and could create some trouble after Christmas if it should send a larger CME towards the Earth. The large sunspots of S 1378 are already too far to the North and also almost rotating out of vie, to create geoeffective events. . The third AR- 11381 with aneighbored 11382 is close to the Southern CH Extension and was the most active region on Dec 22 . A short and weak CME was observed sometimes early after 2:00 UTC on its northern border/filament. . The AR is also far enough to the South to hit the Earth with any CME at this time of the season. The event`s X ray signature appeared to be rather small but might have or add minor effects , if it would arrive around the 24th of December . This event will be observed at its arrival but not listed yet as a real significant CME. For more informations about active regions and their physics, visit www.solen.info/

 
(1) 20111222/ 4:39 UTC (2) 20111222/ 10:24 UTC 20111222/ 02:43 UTC 20111222/ 3:42 UTC (5) 20111222/ 18: 58 UTC   Today`s GOEShp Magnetometer plot - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD  
   
STEREO AHEAD STEREO AHEAD SDO /AIA SoHO SDO /HMI (Intensity gram)    
     

SECTION 3 >

ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG-

 
TODAY`s REPORTS: MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL POSSIBLY FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY!    
special remarks:

note: the correctness of data published by the offical institutes such as NOAA or EMSC is the responsibility of these institutes not mine

 

VOLCANOES

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL LOCAL SURVEY GOOGLE EARTH WEBCAM

SOURCES:

 
TODAY s NEW EVENTS               volcano discovery.com  
     
latest weekly global volcano activity report>

14 December-20 December 2011

New Activity/Unrest: | Galeras, Colombia | Gamalama, Halmahera | Ijen, Eastern Java (Indonesia) | Jebel Zubair, Yemen | Tungurahua, Ecuador
Ongoing Activity: | Dukono, Halmahera | Hierro, Canary Islands (Spain) | Karymsky, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) | Kilauea, Hawaii (USA) | Kizimen, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) | Popocatépetl, México | Puyehue-Cordón Caulle, Central Chile | Sakura-jima, Kyushu | Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia)

This page is updated on Wednesdays. Please see the GVP Home Page for news of the latest significant activity.

GLOBAL VOLCANISM PROGRAM (GVP)  
 

 

 

                             

YEAR:

2011

 

MONTH:

DECEMBER

 

DAY:

21

             

SECTION 1 >

SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info) visit solen.info for more informations   INTERNAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*  
LAST REPORT (previous day) SOLAR PARAMETERS (for more detailled informations on the Solar activity go to : solen.info-/ or: SunSpotWatch.com CORONAL HOLES (solen.info CORONAL HOLES (CH)   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: ESTIMATED MAXIMUM MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  
  SOUTHERN POLAR CH (S-CH)    

DEC-20- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
        2011- December - 21  
  128 flare class > C M X GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY: EARTH FACING ON: QUIET 5.5- 7.0

2- 3

 

SOLAR FLUX:

total flares (number)> 07 --   60- 123 nT S-CH DEC 23- 24 UNSETTLED 2011- December - 22
  137 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s) 332-401 X RAY
BACKGROUND FLUX>

B 5.1

      MINOR STORM 5.5- 7.0

2- 3

 
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

Since October 2011, mainly filament activities and eruptions were the predominant peak activities producing CMEs. The siginificant increase of the size of single sun spots observed since October 2012 continued. . Since middle of December- again significant flare and CME activities in active sun spots regions could be observed again.

  MAJOR STORM 2011- December - 23  
  04 ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latitude: appr. EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED

ESTIMATED CME ARRIVALS   5.5- 6.5

2

  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
                    IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES:  
                       
rotating out of view>                    
                   
  11376 32°- 46° W 26° N            
  11377 37°- 51 ° W 13° N            
  11380 33°- 19° E 20° S DEC- 22         * NEXT CME IMPACT> VOLCANO ALERT PROBABILITY:  
  11381 03° - 17°W 16° S           CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs : 01 STORMS/ GLACIAL MELTING HIGH from DEC 19- 23  
  11382 04° E- 12°W 16° S DEC- 21               ELECTROMAGNETIC STRENGTH:    
  11383 55°- 41° E 03° N DEC- 24           NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION / last 24 hours:  
NEW EMERGED> 11384 66°- 52° E 12° N             geomagnetic storms (G)  

radio blackouts (R)

  solar radiation storms(S) --  

SECTION 2

CME EVENT SECTION:    

REGIONS WITH THE ESTIMATED CURRENTLY HIGHEST CME EFFECTS CAUSED BY THE LATEST LISTED CME IMPACTS- THE REGIONS ARE NAMED AFTER SEISMIC ACTIVE REGIONS AND TECTONIC PLATES.

Red means the region those were hit relatively strongest by the latest CME: last updated on: DEC 19- 2011

 
SOUTH WEST ASIA (INDONESIA, PHILLIPINES) CENTRAL PACIFIC: JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NORTH AMERICA/USA - WESTERN PACIFIC: ALASKA NEW ZEALAND VANUATU CENTRAL AMERICA- COLUMBIA, PERU ... ATLANTIC & AMERICA SOUTH EURASIA & AFRICA ASIA MINOR  
     

SECTION 3 >

ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG-

 
TODAY`s REPORTS: MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL POSSIBLY FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY!    
special remarks:

note: the correctness of data published by the offical institutes such as NOAA or EMSC is the responsibility of these institutes not mine

 

VOLCANOES

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL LOCAL SURVEY GOOGLE EARTH WEBCAM

SOURCES:

 
TODAY s NEW EVENTS               volcano discovery.com  

Find volcanoes on my internal maps:

Africa and Arabic peninsula

Volcanic Eruption in the Red Sea (Yemen) reported

A volcano erupted near Saba Island in the Red Sea on Monday, said fishermen from Salif port city in the west of Yemen.
The fishermen confirmed that the volcano erupted near Saba Island one of the Al-Zubair archipelago small Islands located 30 nautical miles away if Salif city.
The fishermen said that the volcano can be seen 3 hours away from its center and that it has been popping up red lava that reached 20-30 meters high.
The fishermen said this was the first volcano they ever seen in the region. ...read more...

volcano discovery.com( 20111220) The likely source of the eruption, if the reports are true, could be one of the islands Zubair islands: Jebel Zubair, Centre Peak, Saba, or Haycock island, which form a small archipelago 30 miles (50 km) west of Salif. The islands belong to a mostly submerged, active shield volcano located on the Red Sea rift axis.v..read more...

www.yobserver.com(20111219)  
       
STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: STRENGTH DIRECTION CATHEGORY

SOURCES:

 

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical storms.
globaldisasterwatch  

SNOW STORMS IN CENTRAL US.

Six deaths and travel chaos as snowstorm sweeps the Great Plains

Snow and fierce winds have swept into the central US, causing at least six deaths and closing highways. Hotels were filling up quickly along major roadways from eastern New Mexico to Kansas and travel throughout the region was treacherous. Forecasters were warning that pre-holiday travel would be difficult, if not impossible, across the region. ...read more...

www.guardian.co.uk(20111220)  
 

 

 

                             

YEAR:

2011

 

MONTH:

DECEMBER

 

DAY:

20

             

SECTION 1 >

SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info) visit solen.info for more informations   INTERNAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*  
LAST REPORT (previous day) SOLAR PARAMETERS (for more detailled informations on the Solar activity go to : solen.info-/ or: SunSpotWatch.com CORONAL HOLES (solen.info CORONAL HOLES (CH)   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: ESTIMATED MAXIMUM MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  
  CH 489 DEVELOPING    

DEC-19- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
        2011- December - 20  
  133 flare class > C M X GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY: EARTH FACING ON: QUIET 5.5- 7.0

2- 3

 

SOLAR FLUX:

total flares > -- --   62- 132 nT     UNSETTLED 2011- December - 21
  128 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s) 284-436 X RAY
BACKGROUND FLUX>

B 3.6

      MINOR STORM 5.5- 7.0

2- 3

 
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

Since October 2011, mainly filament activities and eruptions were the predominant peak activities producing CMEs. The siginificant increase of the size of single sun spots observed since October 2012 continued. . Since middle of December- again significant flare and CME activities in active sun spots regions could be observed again.

  MAJOR STORM 2011- December - 22  
  06 ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latitude: appr. EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED

ESTIMATED CME ARRIVALS   5.5- 7.0

2-3

  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
                    IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES:  
                   

 

 
rotating out of view> 11374 79° - 93° W 17° S              
  11376 25°- 39° W 26° N            
  11377 26°- 40 ° W 13° N            
  11379 47- 61 ° W 28° S            
  11380 47°- 33° E 20° S DEC- 22         * NEXT CME IMPACT> VOLCANO ALERT PROBABILITY:  
  11381 10°E - 04°W 16° S DEC-20         CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs : 01 STORMS/ GLACIAL MELTING HIGH from DEC 19- 22  
  11382 17°- 03° E 16° S DEC- 21               ELECTROMAGNETIC STRENGTH:    
NEW EMERGED> 11383 69°- 55° E 03° N DEC- 24           NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION / last 24 hours:  
NEW EMERGED>                   geomagnetic storms (G)  

radio blackouts (R)

  solar radiation storms(S) --  
FILAMENT ACTIVITIES REGION EVENT ERUPTION TIME DURATION UNTIL: APPR. SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME: DESCRIPTION

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL

 
INTERNAL CME- EVENT NR.: 58 North eastern quadrant minor filament eruption close to S 1380 and S 1384 DEC- 20/ 00- 2:00 UTC? short blast PISCES/ARIES/? ) A minor CME- a short burst of sun matter- erupted early on DEC- 20 on the Northern edge of new forming S 1380 and S 1384 on the Northern hemisphere somewhere around 60 degrees East. The event is difficult to judge as no image is available from SoHo yet. As it appears right now, at least- a flank of the first CME might reach the Earth sometime around DEC 22- 23.  

SECTION 2

CME EVENT SECTION:    

REGIONS WITH THE ESTIMATED CURRENTLY HIGHEST CME EFFECTS CAUSED BY THE LATEST LISTED CME IMPACTS- THE REGIONS ARE NAMED AFTER SEISMIC ACTIVE REGIONS AND TECTONIC PLATES.

Red means the region those were hit relatively strongest by the latest CME: last updated on: DEC 19- 2011

 
SOUTH WEST ASIA (INDONESIA, PHILLIPINES) CENTRAL PACIFIC: JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NORTH AMERICA/USA - WESTERN PACIFIC: ALASKA NEW ZEALAND VANUATU CENTRAL AMERICA- COLUMBIA, PERU ... ATLANTIC & AMERICA SOUTH EURASIA & AFRICA ASIA MINOR  

Today`s CME report:

INTERNAL CME- EVENT NR.: 58

(1) (2) A minor CME- a short burst of sun matter- erupted early on DEC- 20 on the Northern edge of new forming S 1380 and S 1384 on the Northern hemisphere somewhere around 60 degrees East. SoHO ( 4) had a transmission gap afterwards ( from 6: 19- 15:06 UTC). On SDO the event is not visible on a single image but only on the animation. The first event is difficult to judge as no image is available form SoHo yet. As it appears right now, at least- a flank of the first CME might reach the Earth sometime around DEC 22- 23.

The later SDO image (3) shows other activities: One near CH 489. The other is a larger flare that began to emerge in the currently largest active region AR 11381 and 11382 on Dec- 20. This region AR 11382 seems to be capable to produce a major CME later that would be well Earth directed. .

 
(1) 20111220/ 4:24 UTC (2) 20111220/ 6: 24 UTC (3) 20111220/ 4:28 UTC (4) 20111220/ 15:06 UTC     Today`s GOEShp Magnetometer plot - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD  
     
STEREO AHEAD STEREO AHEAD SDO /AIA SoHO SDO /AIA    
     

SECTION 3 >

ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG-

 
TODAY`s REPORTS: MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL POSSIBLY FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY!    
special remarks:

note: the correctness of data published by the offical institutes such as NOAA or EMSC is the responsibility of these institutes not mine

 

VOLCANOES

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL LOCAL SURVEY GOOGLE EARTH WEBCAM

SOURCES:

 
TODAY s NEW EVENTS               volcano discovery.com  
 

   
 

El Hierro volcano (Canary Islands, Spain): end of the submarine eruption in sight?

The submarine eruption south of El Hierro is still going on, but there are signs magma supply has dropped significantly....read more...
volcano discovery.com  
STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: STRENGTH DIRECTION CATHEGORY

SOURCES:

 

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Western Pacific -
Tropical depression 27w (Washi) was located approximately 235 nm east of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. The final warning on this system has been issued.
globaldisasterwatch  

 

     
CLIMATE                
 

Shock as retreat of Arctic sea ice releases deadly greenhouse gas

Russian research team astonished after finding 'fountains' of methane bubbling to surface: Dramatic and unprecedented plumes of methane – a greenhouse gas 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide – have been seen bubbling to the surface of the Arctic Ocean by scientists undertaking an extensive survey of the region.The scale and volume of the methane release has astonished the head of the Russian research team who has been surveying the seabed of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf off northern Russia for nearly 20 years. ...read more...

www.independent.co.uk  
 

 

 

                             
 

 

 

                             

YEAR:

2011

 

MONTH:

DECEMBER

 

DAY:

19

             

SECTION 1 >

SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info) visit solen.info for more informations   INTERNAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*  
LAST REPORT (previous day) SOLAR PARAMETERS (for more detailled informations on the Solar activity go to : solen.info-/ or: SunSpotWatch.com CORONAL HOLES (solen.info CORONAL HOLES (CH)   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: ESTIMATED MAXIMUM MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  
  CH 489 DEVELOPING    

DEC-18- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
      CME ARRIVAL! 2011- December - 19  
  103 flare class > C M X GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY: EARTH FACING ON: QUIET 5.5- 6.5

1- 2

 

SOLAR FLUX:

total flares > 02 --   65- 140 nT     UNSETTLED 2011- December - 20
  127 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s) 270-313 X RAY
BACKGROUND FLUX>

B 3.2

      MINOR STORM 5.5- 7.5

2- 3

 
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

Since begin of October 2011, increased filament activities and eruptions producing significant CMEs were observed mainly on the northern Sun hemisphere. As the Earth currently approaches its Southernmost distance to the Sun equator ( winter soltice) most of these CMEs have yet missed the Earth.

  MAJOR STORM 2011- December - 21  
  02 ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latitude: appr. EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED

ESTIMATED CME ARRIVALS   5.5- 7.5

2- 3

  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
                    IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES:  
                   

 

 
  11374 64° - 78° W 17° S              
  11375 72°- 86° W 10° N            
  11376 09°- 23° W 26° N            
  11377 12°- 26 ° W 13° N            
  11378 30°- 46° W 15° S           * NEXT CME IMPACT> VOLCANO ALERT PROBABILITY:  
  11379 33- 47 ° W 28° S             STORMS/ GLACIAL MELTING HIGH from DEC 19- 22  
  11380 58°- 44° E 20° S DEC- 22               ELECTROMAGNETIC STRENGTH:    
NEW EMERGED> 11381 24°- 10° E 16° S DEC-20           NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION / last 24 hours:  
NEW EMERGED> 11382 32°- 18° E 16° S DEC- 21           geomagnetic storms (G)  

radio blackouts (R)

  solar radiation storms(S) --  

SECTION 2

CME EVENT SECTION:    

REGIONS WITH THE ESTIMATED CURRENTLY HIGHEST CME EFFECTS CAUSED BY THE LATEST LISTED CME IMPACTS- THE REGIONS ARE NAMED AFTER SEISMIC ACTIVE REGIONS AND TECTONIC PLATES.

Red means the region those were hit relatively strongest by the latest CME: last updated on: DEC 19- 2011

 
SOUTH WEST ASIA (INDONESIA, PHILLIPINES) CENTRAL PACIFIC: JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NORTH AMERICA/USA - WESTERN PACIFIC: ALASKA NEW ZEALAND VANUATU CENTRAL AMERICA- COLUMBIA, PERU ... ATLANTIC & AMERICA SOUTH EURASIA & AFRICA ASIA MINOR  
Today`s CME report:    
     

SECTION 3 >

ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG-

 
TODAY`s REPORTS: MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL POSSIBLY FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY!    
special remarks:

note: the correctness of data published by the offical institutes such as NOAA or EMSC is the responsibility of these institutes not mine

 

VOLCANOES

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL LOCAL SURVEY GOOGLE EARTH WEBCAM

SOURCES:

 
TODAY s NEW EVENTS JEBEL ZUBAIR/ Yemen, Red Sea 15°3'0"N/ 42°11'0"E DEC- 19- 2011   NASA JEBEL ZUBAIR none Yemen Observer,  

JEBEL ZUBAIR/ Yemen, Red Sea

According to local news, fishermen from the port city of Salif on the western Red Sea coast of Yemen reported an off shore eruption from the island of Jebel Zubair, about 60 km SW, with lava fountains rising 20-30 m above the summit on 19 December. On 19 December a SO2 cloud was detected in an OMI satellite image. MODIS imagery from 20 December shows a plume rising from a submarine eruption about 1.5 km SW of Haycock and N of Rugged (near the N end of the Az-Zubair island group), and about 12 km NE of Jebel Zubair island. A bathymetric sketch map made in 1973 indicates a water depth of about 100 m in that area.

GVP  
     
 

 

 

                             

YEAR:

2011

 

MONTH:

DECEMBER

 

DAY:

18

             

SECTION 1 >

SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info) visit solen.info for more informations   INTERNAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*  
LAST REPORT (previous day) SOLAR PARAMETERS (for more detailled informations on the Solar activity go to : solen.info-/ or: SunSpotWatch.com CORONAL HOLES (solen.info CORONAL HOLES (CH)   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: ESTIMATED MAXIMUM MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  
  CH 489 DEVELOPING    

DEC-17- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
        2011- December - 18  
  60 flare class > C M X GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY: EARTH FACING ON: QUIET 5.5- 6.5

1- 2

 

SOLAR FLUX:

total flares > 03 --   ^ 85- 120 nT     UNSETTLED 2011- December - 19
  121 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

269-277

X RAY
BACKGROUND FLUX>

B 2.3

      MINOR STORM 5.5- 6.5

1- 2

 
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

Since begin of October 2011, increased filament activities and eruptions producing significant CMEs were observed mainly on the northern Sun hemisphere. As the Earth currently approaches its Southernmost distance to the Sun equator ( winter soltice) most of these CMEs have yet missed the Earth.

  MAJOR STORM 2011- December - 20  
  00 ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latitude: appr. EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED

ESTIMATED CME ARRIVALS   5.5- 6.5

1- 2

  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
                    IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES:  
                   

 

 
                     
                   
  11374 50° - 64° W 17° S            
  11375 57°- 71° W 10° N            
  11376 06° E- 09° W 26° N NOV- 18           LOW PROBABILITY:  
  11377 04°E- 10 ° W 13° N NOV- 18                
  11378 22°- 36° W 15° S                   STRENGTH:    
NEW EMERGED> 11379 22- 36 ° W 28° S             NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION / last 24 hours:  
NEW EMERGED> 11380 71°- 57° E 20° S             geomagnetic storms (G)  

radio blackouts (R)

  solar radiation storms(S) --  

SECTION 2

CME EVENT SECTION:    

CME ARRIVALS/TRACKING

CME DATA ( SOLAR) CME ARRIVAL DATA ( EARTH)  

unsure. CME ARRUIVAL TRIGGERED MINOR GEOMAGENTIC STORM

INTERNAL CME EVENT NR: 56 or 57 A/B?

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latidude: EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

CME ARRIVAL (GOES)

highest values on ACE at *   time/ longitudes/ values> 100 nT MAIN IMPACT REGIONS internal relative mass value* GOES peak values /duration peak value ( magnetic density )* intern. Nr  
SOUTH WESTERN QUADRANT Partial to fully halo CME during filament eruption DEC 13/ 1: 41 DEC 14/ 12:00 UTC GEMINI DEC 18/ after 9:30 UTC DEC 1(/ 22 UTC- DEC 19 / 04 UTC  

DEC- 18/ 12:30 UTC until DEC 19/ 4:00 UTC

AMERICA: EAST/ CENTRAL/ SOUTH 280 DEC 18/ 22:00 UTC 140 nT 56? /or:57/ A/B)  
          *ACE     *ACE   * GOEShp      

CME impact report >

only made after larger events        

REGIONS WITH THE ESTIMATED CURRENTLY HIGHEST CME EFFECTS CAUSED BY THE LATEST LISTED CME IMPACTS- THE REGIONS ARE NAMED AFTER SEISMIC ACTIVE REGIONS AND TECTONIC PLATES.

Red means the region those were hit relatively strongest by the latest CME: last updated on: DEC 19- 2011

 
SOUTH WEST ASIA (INDONESIA, PHILLIPINES) CENTRAL PACIFIC: JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NORTH AMERICA/USA - WESTERN PACIFIC: ALASKA NEW ZEALAND VANUATU CENTRAL AMERICA- COLUMBIA, PERU ... ATLANTIC & AMERICA SOUTH EURASIA & AFRICA ASIA MINOR  
Today`s CME report:    
(1) 20111215/ 16:30           Today`s GOEShp Magnetometer plot - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD  
           
STEREO AHEAD SoHO SDO /AIA SDO /AIA SDO /AIA    
     

SECTION 3 >

ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG-

 
TODAY`s REPORTS: MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL POSSIBLY FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY!    
special remarks:

note: the correctness of data published by the offical institutes such as NOAA or EMSC is the responsibility of these institutes not mine

 
     

VOLCANOES

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL LOCAL SURVEY GOOGLE EARTH WEBCAM

SOURCES:

 
TODAY s NEW EVENTS IJEN/ Java/ Indonesia 8°3'30"S/ 114°14'30"E DEC- 18- 2011 raised to 3 of 4 Badan Geology IJEN none  

IJEN/ Java/ Indonesia

CVGHM reported that during 1 October-30 November white plumes from Ijen rose 50-150 m above the crater and lake water temperatures ranged from 26 to 31.6 degrees Celsius. During 1-14 December brownish-white plumes rose 50-200 m above the crater. The lake water temperature was 26.8 and 34.2 degrees Celsius on 8 and 14 December, respectively. Based on increased seismicity, visual observations, and lake water temperature increases, CVGHM raised the Alert Level from 1 to 2 (on a scale of 1-4). During 15-17 December seismicity significantly increased and sulfur dioxide gas emissions around the lake also increased. On 17 December the color of the lake water changed from light green to white. The Alert Level was raised to 3 the next day.

GVP  

MOUNT GAMALAMA/ Halmahera/ Indonesia

Cold lava risk in Indonesia's Mount Gamalama increases

JAKARTA, Dec. 16 (Xinhua) -- Cold lava flow risk from Mount Gamalama in Indonesia's North Maluku province rises following heavy rainfall on the top of the volcano, a press statement said here.Sutopo Purwo Nugroho, head of Center of Data Information and Public Relation at the National Agency for Disaster Management ( BNPB), said the volcano that erupted on Dec. 5 still emits small eruptions as of today and the danger status stays at level III. "People were urged to stay away from the second and third danger zones (of 2.5 kilometers and 3.5 kilometers from the top) as lava flow and hot cloud threaten. Meanwhile, cold lava threatens the first danger zone (of 1 kilometer from the top)," said Nugroho....read more...

read also: us.en.vivanews.com(20111216) /Villagers Facing Cold Lava Flood in Gamalama

news.xinhuanet.com  
SEVERE WEATHERS>

DATE AND UTC- TIME:

NAME / EVENT/ REGION

LOCATION (long/lat) STRENGTH DIRECTION CATHEGORY

SOURCES:

 

 

     
STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: STRENGTH DIRECTION CATHEGORY

SOURCES:

 

Philippines flood toll passes 650 as search continues

The number of people killed in the Philippines by floods triggered by Tropical Storm Washi has risen to 650. Soldiers and volunteers are still searching for the 800 people reported missing on southern Mindanao island. Many were trapped in their homes as the flash floods coincided with high tides. In some places entire villages are reported to have been swept away. ...read more...

www.bbc.co.uk  

 

     
 

 

 

                             

YEAR:

2011

 

MONTH:

DECEMBER

 

DAY:

17

             

SECTION 1 >

SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info) visit solen.info for more informations   INTERNAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*  
LAST REPORT (previous day) SOLAR PARAMETERS (for more detailled informations on the Solar activity go to : solen.info-/ or: SunSpotWatch.com CORONAL HOLES (solen.info CORONAL HOLES (CH)   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: ESTIMATED MAXIMUM MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  
  CH 489 DEVELOPING    

DEC-16- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
        2011- December - 17  
  60 flare class > C M X GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY: EARTH FACING ON: QUIET 5.5- 7.0

1- 2

 

SOLAR FLUX:

total flares > -- --   ^ 78- 115 nT     UNSETTLED 2011- December - 18
  121 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s) 270-361 X RAY
BACKGROUND FLUX>

B 3.2

      MINOR STORM 5.5- 6.5

1- 2

 
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

Since begin of October 2011, increaased filament activities and eruptions producing significant CMEs were observed mainly on the northern Sun hemisphere. As the Earth currently approaches its Southernmost distance to the Sun equator ( winter soltice) most of these CMEs have yet missed the Earth.

  MAJOR STORM 2011- December - 19  
  00 ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latitude: appr. EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED

ESTIMATED CME ARRIVALS   5.5- 6.5

1- 2

  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
                    IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES:  
                ACTIVE REGIONS AND CH  

 

 
                   
                   
  11374 36° - 50° W 17° S            
  11375 43°- 57° W 10° N            
  11376 18°- 04° E 26° N NOV- 18         * NEXT CME IMPACT>   PROBABILITY:  
  11377 17°- 03° E 13° N NOV- 18                
NEW EMERGED> 11378 08°- 22° W 15° S        
20111216/ STAR MAP by: solen.info
        STRENGTH:    
                    NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION / last 24 hours:  
                    geomagnetic storms (G)  

radio blackouts (R)

  solar radiation storms(S) --  

SECTION 2

CME EVENT SECTION:    

CME ARRIVALS/TRACKING

CME DATA ( SOLAR) CME ARRIVAL DATA ( EARTH)  

 

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latidude: EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

CME ARRIVAL (GOES)

ARRIVAL longitude   time/ longitudes/ values> 100 nT highest values on ACE at * internal relative mass value* GOES peak values /duration peak value ( magnetic density )* intern. Nr  
SOUTH WESTERN QUADRANT Partial to fully halo CME during filament eruption DEC 13/ 1: 41 DEC 14/ 12:00 UTC GEMINI DEC- 17- 2011/ 10: 30 UTC 30 15° E   DEC 17/ 9:30 UTC- DEC 18/ 02 UTC 09 UTC

untypical filament CME:

110

11 h 120 nT 55  
                *ACE   * GOEShp      

CME impact report >

only made after larger events        

REGIONS WITH THE ESTIMATED CURRENTLY HIGHEST CME EFFECTS CAUSED BY THE LATEST LISTED CME IMPACTS- THE REGIONS ARE NAMED AFTER SEISMIC ACTIVE REGIONS AND TECTONIC PLATES.

Red means the region those were hit relatively strongest by the latest CME:

 
SOUTH WEST ASIA (INDONESIA, PHILLIPINES) CENTRAL PACIFIC: JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NORTH AMERICA- WESTERN PACIFIC: ALASKA NEW ZEALAND VANUATU CENTRAL AMERICA- COLUMBIA, PERU ... ATLANTIC & AMERICA SOUTH EURASIA & AFRICA ASIA MINOR  
Today`s CME report:

images below: a larger eruption sequence occured on Dec 17 in the Northern polar region. The major event was over the Northern pole on the backside. But also the frontside event had no Earth directed parts. Filament eruptions are the most observed type of activities observed within the recent months since end of September 2011. CMEs from filament eruptions are usually much more larger than those from flares or sun spot regions, but someway also different. Differently to the explosive CMEs near Sun spots, filament eruption last very long and create rather a long lasting increase in sun wind density than a sudden strong eruption. Most of the recent filament CMEs on the fornt side have missed the Earth. The parts that arrived however have risen the average geomagnetic field density to a constant level comparable with the impact of a minor CME. The difference however is: These higher values continue for days. Its a new experience to explore how they especially effect on the Earth.

(3) (4) a second event occured on DEc 17 after 23:00 UTC. Stereo had a transmission gap after 23: 39 UTC. The first image submitted after (4) shows the signature of a larger backside eruption

 
INTERNAL CME EVENT NR: 57 (1) 20111217/ 11: 24 UTC (2) 20111217/ 13: 09 UTC (3) 20111216/ 23: 39 UTC (4) 20111217/ 4:39 UTC   Today`s GOEShp Magnetometer plot - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD  
   

SoHO

STEREO AHEAD

STEREO AHEAD

SDO /AIA SDO /AIA    
     

SECTION 3 >

ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG-

 
TODAY`s REPORTS: MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL POSSIBLY FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY!    
special remarks:

note: the correctness of data published by the offical institutes such as NOAA or EMSC is the responsibility of these institutes not mine

 
STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: STRENGTH DIRECTION CATHEGORY

SOURCES:

 

Tropical Storm 'Sendong'

Philippines storm triggers deadly flash floods

A tropical storm has killed at least 130 people in the Philippines, with flash floods leaving many others missing, officials say.Most of the victims were on the southern island of Mindanao, around Iligan City and Cagayan de Oro. Tens of thousands of people have fled to higher ground, the authorities say.Benito Ramos, head of the national disaster rescue agency, said reports were still coming in and the casualty figures could rise.....read more...

www.bbc.co.uk  
 

 

 

                             

YEAR:

2011

 

MONTH:

DECEMBER

 

DAY:

16

             

SECTION 1 >

SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info) visit solen.info for more informations   INTERNAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*  
LAST REPORT (previous day) SOLAR PARAMETERS (for more detailled informations on the Solar activity go to : solen.info-/ or: SunSpotWatch.com CORONAL HOLES (solen.info CORONAL HOLES (CH)   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: ESTIMATED MAXIMUM MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  
  CH 489 DEVELOPING    

DEC-15- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
        2011- December - 16  
  44 flare class > C M X GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY: EARTH FACING ON: QUIET 5.5- 6.0

1

 

SOLAR FLUX:

total flares > 02 --   ^ 55- 107 nT     UNSETTLED 2011- December - 17
  124 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s) 336-373 X RAY
BACKGROUND FLUX>

B 3.2

      MINOR STORM 5.5- 7.0

1- 2

 
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

Since begin of October 2011, increaased filament activities and eruptions producing significant CMEs were observed mainly on the northern Sun hemisphere. As the Earth currently approaches its Southernmost distance to the Sun equator ( winter soltice) most of these CMEs have yet missed the Earth.

  MAJOR STORM 2011- December - 18  
  01 ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latitude: appr. EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED

ESTIMATED CME ARRIVALS   5.5- 6.5

1- 2

  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
                    IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES:  
                   

 

 
                     
                   
  11374 22° - 36°W 17° S            
  11375 29°- 43° W 10° N            
  11376 33°- 19° E 26° N NOV- 18         * NEXT CME IMPACT>   PROBABILITY:  
NEW EMERGED> 11377 32°- 18° E 13° N NOV- 18                
                          STRENGTH:    
                    NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION / last 24 hours:  
                    geomagnetic storms (G)  

radio blackouts (R)

  solar radiation storms(S) --  

SECTION 2

CME EVENT SECTION:    
CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs : 01 SOUTH WESTERN QUADRANT Partial to fully halo CME during filament eruption DEC 13/ 1: 41 DEC 14/ 12:00 UTC GEMINI The eruption began on DEC 13/ 01:41 UTC and continued with another filament eruption and a medium flare in AR 11366 in the aneighbored region until DEC 14/ 12:00 UTC INTERNAL CME EVENT NR: 56  

CME ARRIVALS/TRACKING

CME DATA ( SOLAR) CME ARRIVAL DATA ( EARTH)  

INTERNAL CME EVENT NR.: 55

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latidude: EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

CME ARRIVAL (GOES)

ARRIVAL longitude   time/ longitudes/ values> 100 nT highest values on ACE at * internal relative mass value* GOES peak values /duration peak value ( magnetic density )* intern. Nr  
SOUTH- WEST QUADRANT minor filament eruption DEC- 13/ 01:26 UTC 5:57 (ongoing) GEMINI DEC 16/ 1: 30 UTC very weak , has mainly missed the Earth   DEC 16/ 12:30 UTC- DEC 17/ 02 UTC 17:00 ITC     115 nT not listed  
                *ACE   * GOEShp      

CME impact report >

only made after larger events        

REGIONS WITH THE ESTIMATED CURRENTLY HIGHEST CME EFFECTS CAUSED BY THE LATEST LISTED CME IMPACTS- THE REGIONS ARE NAMED AFTER SEISMIC ACTIVE REGIONS AND TECTONIC PLATES.

Red means the region those were hit relatively strongest by the latest CME:

 
SOUTH WEST ASIA (INDONESIA, PHILLIPINES) CENTRAL PACIFIC: JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NORTH AMERICA- WESTERN PACIFIC: ALASKA NEW ZEALAND VANUATU CENTRAL AMERICA- COLUMBIA, PERU ... ATLANTIC & AMERICA SOUTH EURASIA & AFRICA ASIA MINOR  
Today`s CME report: Dec- 15- 2011: a larger comet rushed into the sun between Dec 15 and Dec 16. SoHo has transmitted no images of the impact yet.Also STEREO had a transmission gap Dec 15 after 15:39 until Dec 16/ 4: 39. Comets usually impact on the Sun along with a larger eruption.  
     

SECTION 3 >

ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG-

 
TODAY`s REPORTS: MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL POSSIBLY FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY!    
special remarks:

note: the correctness of data published by the offical institutes such as NOAA or EMSC is the responsibility of these institutes not mine

 
STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: STRENGTH DIRECTION CATHEGORY

SOURCES:

 

 

Orkan "Joachim" erreicht Deutschland

Mit Windstärken bis zu 200 Stundenkilometer wird der Orkan "Joachim" über Deutschland hinwegtoben. Für Baden-Württemberg und Bayern ist die höchste Warnstufe ausgegeben. In Frankreich sind bereits Hunderttausende Häuser von der Stromversorgung abgeschnitten, der Zugverkehr ist stellenweise zusammengebrochen....read more...

www.spiegel.de  
SPECIAL REPORTS:                

FUKUSHIMA/ JAPAN

Japan PM declares 'cold shutdown' at Fukushima

Engineers have brought the crippled Fukushima nuclear plant to a "cold shutdown condition", nine months after the earthquake and tsunami, Japan has confirmed. Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda made the announcement at a nuclear task-force meeting. Declaring a cold shutdown condition is seen as a key milestone in efforts to bring the plant under control. But the government says it will take decades to dismantle it completely.....read more...

www.bbc.com  
       
 

 

 

                             

YEAR:

2011

 

MONTH:

DECEMBER

 

DAY:

15

             

SECTION 1 >

SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info) visit solen.info for more informations   INTERNAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*  
LAST REPORT (previous day) SOLAR PARAMETERS (for more detailled informations on the Solar activity go to : solen.info-/ or: SunSpotWatch.com CORONAL HOLES (solen.info CORONAL HOLES (CH)   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: ESTIMATED MAXIMUM MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  
  CH 489 DEVELOPING    

DEC-14- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
        2011- December - 15  
  119 flare class > C M X GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY: EARTH FACING ON: QUIET 5.5- 6.5

1- 2

 

SOLAR FLUX:

total flares > 16 --   55- 107 nT     UNSETTLED 2011- December - 16
  132 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s) 360-437 X RAY
BACKGROUND FLUX>

B 8.3

      MINOR STORM 5.5- 6.5

1- 2

 
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

Since begin of October 2011, increaased filament activities and eruptions producing significant CMEs were observed mainly on the northern Sun hemisphere. As the Earth currently approaches its Southernmost distance to the Sun equator ( winter soltice) most of these CMEs have yet missed the Earth.

  MAJOR STORM 2011- December - 17  
  02 ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latitude: appr. EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED

ESTIMATED CME ARRIVALS   5.5- 6.5

1- 2

  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
                    IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES:  
rotating out of view 11366 83°- 97° W 18° N            

 

 
                     
                   
  11374 10° - 24°W 17° S            
  11375 15°- 29° W 10° N            
  11376 43°- 29° E 26° N           * NEXT CME IMPACT> DEC 15- 16 PROBABILITY:  
NEW EMERGED> 11377 45°- 31° E 13° N                  
                          STRENGTH:    
                    NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION / last 24 hours:  
                    geomagnetic storms (G)  

radio blackouts (R)

  solar radiation storms(S) --  

SECTION 2

CME EVENT SECTION:    
    SOUTH- WEST QUADRANT minor filament eruption DEC- 13/ 01:26 UTC 5:57 (ongoing) GEMINI Minor but longer lasting CME eruption on the southern hemisphere near to the Sun- equator . Due to the current Earth position, approaching the Southernmost distance to the Sun equator ("winter soltice"), this CME might by almost fully Earth directed

DEC- 15/16

(INTERNAL CME EVEN T NR.: 55)

 
CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs : 02 SOUTH WESTERN QUADRANT Partial to fully halo CME during filament eruption DEC 13 1: 41 DEC 14/ 12:00 UTC GEMINI The eruption began on DEC 13/ 01:41 UTC and continued with another filament eruption and a medium flare in AR 11366 in the aneighbored region until DEC 14/ 12:00 UTC    

REGIONS WITH THE ESTIMATED CURRENTLY HIGHEST CME EFFECTS CAUSED BY THE LATEST LISTED CME IMPACTS- THE REGIONS ARE NAMED AFTER SEISMIC ACTIVE REGIONS AND TECTONIC PLATES.

Red means the region those were hit relatively strongest by the latest CME:

 
SOUTH WEST ASIA (INDONESIA, PHILLIPINES) CENTRAL PACIFIC: JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NORTH AMERICA- WESTERN PACIFIC: ALASKA NEW ZEALAND VANUATU CENTRAL AMERICA- COLUMBIA, PERU ... ATLANTIC & AMERICA SOUTH EURASIA & AFRICA ASIA MINOR  
Today`s CME report:

(1) (2) A minor CME was observed on DEC 15 after 6:30 UTC heading towards the SW. This CME will likely not be geoeffective.

(3) Dec- 15- 2011: a larger comet rushed into the sun between Dec 15 and Dec 16. SoHo has transmitted no images of the impact yet.Also STEREO had a transmission gap Dec 15 after 15:39 until Dec 16/ 4: 39. Comets usually impact on the Sun along with a larger eruption.(INTERNAL CME EVENT NR.: 56)

 
20111215/ 6:39 UTC (2) 20111215/ 10: 09 UTC   (3) 20111215/ 16:30     Today`s GOEShp Magnetometer plot - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD  
       
STEREO AHEAD STEREO AHEAD STEREO AHEAD SDO /AIA    
     

SECTION 3 >

ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG-

 
TODAY`s REPORTS: MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL POSSIBLY FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY!    
special remarks:

note: the correctness of data published by the offical institutes such as NOAA or EMSC is the responsibility of these institutes not mine

 
LATEST GLOBAL EARTHQUAKES ABOVE M 6.0

NAME of REGION:

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: MAGNITUDE DEPTH CATHEGORY CLICK TO FIND LOCATION WITH GOOGLE EARTH:  
  SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS 32.72 S ; 178.92 W 2011-12-15 10:10 UTC M 6.0 39 km unknown    

VOLCANOES

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL LOCAL SURVEY GOOGLE EARTH WEBCAM

SOURCES:

 
TODAY s NEW EVENTS               volcano discovery.com  

Weekly global vaolcano activity report >

7 December-13 December 2011

New Activity/Unrest: | Galeras, Colombia | Gamalama, Halmahera | Merapi, Central Java (Indonesia) | Sundoro, Central Java (Indonesia) | Tungurahua, Ecuador
Ongoing Activity: | Dukono, Halmahera | Fuego, Guatemala | Hierro, Canary Islands (Spain) | Karymsky, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) | Kilauea, Hawaii (USA) | Kizimen, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) | Popocatépetl, México | Puyehue-Cordón Caulle, Central Chile | Sakura-jima, Kyushu | Santa María, Guatemala | Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia)

This page is updated on Wednesdays. Please see the GVP Home Page for news of the latest significant activity.

GVP (global Volcanism program/ USGS/ Smithsonian inst.  
STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: STRENGTH DIRECTION CATHEGORY

SOURCES:

 

 

Orkan "Joachim"reaches Euroope    
SPECIAL REPORTS:                

 

Thousands of birds make US crash landing

THOUSANDS of migratory birds died on impact after apparently mistaking a Wal-Mart car park and other areas of southern Utah for bodies of water and plummeting to the ground in what one wildlife expert has called the worst downing she's ever seen. Crews went to work cleaning up the dead birds and rescuing the survivors after the creatures crash-landed in the St George area on Tuesday. By yesterday, volunteers had rescued more than 2000 birds, releasing them into nearby bodies of water. ...read more...

www.heraldsun.com.au  
       
 

 

 

                             

YEAR:

2011

 

MONTH:

DECEMBER

 

DAY:

14

             

SECTION 1 >

SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info) visit solen.info for more informations   INTERNAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*  
LAST REPORT (previous day) SOLAR PARAMETERS (for more detailled informations on the Solar activity go to : solen.info-/ or: SunSpotWatch.com CORONAL HOLES (solen.info CORONAL HOLES (CH)   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: ESTIMATED MAXIMUM MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  
  CH 489 DEVELOPING    

DEC-13- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
CH 488       2011- December - 14  
  77 flare class > C M X GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY: EARTH FACING ON: QUIET 5.5- 7.0

2

 

SOLAR FLUX:

total flares > 05 --   62- 112 nT     UNSETTLED 2011- December - 15
  133 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s) 448-497 X RAY
BACKGROUND FLUX>

B 5.1

      MINOR STORM 5.5- 6.5

1- 2

 
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

Since begin of October 2011, increaased filament activities and eruptions producing significant CMEs were observed mainly on the northern Sun hemisphere. As the Earth currently approaches its Southernmost distance to the Sun equator ( winter soltice) most of these CMEs have yet missed the Earth.

  MAJOR STORM 2011- December - 16  
  04 ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latitude: appr. EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED

ESTIMATED CME ARRIVALS   5.5- 6.5

1- 2

  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
                    IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES:  
  11366 69°- 83° W 18° N            

 

 
rotating out of view 11367 87°- 101° W 18° S              
  11372 49° - 63° W 08° N            
  11374 03°E - 11°W 17° S DEC-14          
  11375 02°- 16° W 10° N            
                  * NEXT CME IMPACT> DEC 13-14* PROBABILITY:  
                         
                          STRENGTH:    
                    NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION / last 24 hours:  
                    geomagnetic storms (G)  

radio blackouts (R)

  solar radiation storms(S) --  
FILAMENT ACTIVITIES REGION EVENT ERUPTION TIME DURATION UNTIL: APPR. SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME: DESCRIPTION

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL

 
INTERNAL CME EVENT NR: 55 A/ B SOUTH WESTERN QUADRANT Partial to fully halo CME during filament eruption DEC 13 1: 41 DEC 14/ 12:00 UTC GEMINI The eruption began on DEC 13/ 01:41 UTC and continued with another filament eruption and a medium flare in AR 11366 in the aneighbored region until DEC 14/ 12:00 UTC    

SECTION 2

CME EVENT SECTION:    
CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs : 02 SOUTH- WEST QUADRANR minor filament eruption DEC- 13/ 01:26 UTC 5:57 (ongoing) GEMINI Minor but longer lasting CME eruption on the southern hemisphere near to the Sun- equator . Due to the current Earth position, approaching the Southernmost distance to the Sun equator ("winter soltice"), this CME might by almost fully Earth directed DEC- 15/16  

REGIONS WITH THE ESTIMATED CURRENTLY HIGHEST CME EFFECTS CAUSED BY THE LATEST LISTED CME IMPACTS- THE REGIONS ARE NAMED AFTER SEISMIC ACTIVE REGIONS AND TECTONIC PLATES.

Red means the region those were hit relatively strongest by the latest CME:

 
SOUTH WEST ASIA (INDONESIA, PHILLIPINES) CENTRAL PACIFIC: JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NORTH AMERICA- WESTERN PACIFIC: ALASKA NEW ZEALAND VANUATU CENTRAL AMERICA- COLUMBIA, PERU ... ATLANTIC & AMERICA SOUTH EURASIA & AFRICA ASIA MINOR  
Today`s CME report: (1) A stronger CME was observed today- Dec14. Its source again was a filament eruption on the South western quadrant. The eruption began on DEC 13/ 01:41 UTC and continued with another filament eruption and a medium flare in AR 11366 in the aneighbored region until DEC 14/ 12:00 UTC (3) (4) STEREO had a transmission gap after 12: 54 until 13: 54 . (2) SoHo received a stronger amount of xrays after 9:42 and was knocked out until 16:42 UTC. The CME however was partial halo and its major part seems Earth directed (INTERNAL CME EVENT NR:55 A and B )  
(1) 20111214/ 12:54 (2) 20111214/ 09:42 UTC   (3) 20111213/ 05:10 UTC (4) 20111214/ 12: 56 UTC   Today`s GOEShp Magnetometer plot - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD  
     
STEREO AHEAD SoHO SDO /AIA SDO /AIA SDO /AIA    
     

SECTION 3 >

ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG-

 
TODAY`s REPORTS: MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL POSSIBLY FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY!    
special remarks:

note: the correctness of data published by the offical institutes such as NOAA or EMSC is the responsibility of these institutes not mine

 
LATEST GLOBAL EARTHQUAKES ABOVE M 6.0

NAME of REGION:

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: MAGNITUDE DEPTH CATHEGORY CLICK TO FIND LOCATION WITH GOOGLE EARTH:  
  EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G 7.53 S ; 146.78 E 2011-12-14 05:04 UTC M 7.1 125 km 2    

 

               
PAPUA NEW GUINEA

Major 7.1 quake strikes Papua New Guinea: USGS

PORT MORESBY — A violent 7.1-magnitude earthquake struck Papua New Guinea Wednesday, shaking buildings and prompting residents to run into the streets and causing panic in the highlands.The quake, initially rated at 7.3, hit at a depth of 115 kilometres (71 miles) southwest of the coastal city of Lae and 223 kilometres from the capital Port Moresby, the US Geological Survey said.Macklyn Timbun, who works as a receptionist at the Lae International Hotel, said she was sitting on a bus when the quake hit and it was so large the driver ran away and the vehicle almost rolled in the upheaval...read more...

www.google.com/hostednews  

VOLCANOES

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL LOCAL SURVEY GOOGLE EARTH WEBCAM

SOURCES:

 
TODAY s NEW EVENTS               volcano discovery.com  
 

Kolumbos submarine volcano (Santorini, Greece): 3.2 magnitude earthquake

At 19h22 GMT (21h22 local time), a 3.2 earthquake occurred at the little-known submarine volcano Kolumbos ca. 8 km NE of Santorini, Island, Greece. This marks one of the largest events in recent months. ...read more...
www.volcanodiscovery.com  
SEVERE WEATHERS>

DATE AND UTC- TIME:

NAME / EVENT/ REGION

LOCATION (long/lat) STRENGTH DIRECTION CATHEGORY

SOURCES:

 

 

     
STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: STRENGTH DIRECTION CATHEGORY

SOURCES:

 
  Tropical storm Twentyseven is forecast to strike the Philippines as a typhoon at about 18:00 GMT on 16 December. The Provincial Disaster Management Division warned residents, especially those living along the river banks and waterways, to prepare for incoming Tropical Storm 'Sendong', which, unless it changes course, is expected to hit Negros Friday. global disasterwatch  

 

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Western Pacific -
Tropical Storm 27 was located approximately 100 nm east of Palau. As it moves closer to the Philippines, an improving upper level environment will allow it to intensify to weak typhoon strength.
global disasterwatch  
CLIMATE                
     
SPECIAL REPORTS:                

FREAK WAVE/ found on:

global disasterwatch

Record-breaking wave recorded off Donegal coast

"At 14.00 today the M4 weather buoy off the Donegal coast recorded a maximum wave height of 20.4 metres (67ft), which is the highest maximum wave recorded in Irish waters," reported Met Eireann tonight....read more...

www.joe.ie  
       
 

 

 

                             

YEAR:

2011

 

MONTH:

DECEMBER

 

DAY:

13

             

SECTION 1 >

SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info) visit solen.info for more informations   INTERNAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*  
LAST REPORT (previous day) SOLAR PARAMETERS (for more detailled informations on the Solar activity go to : solen.info-/ or: SunSpotWatch.com CORONAL HOLES (solen.info CORONAL HOLES (CH)   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: ESTIMATED MAXIMUM MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  
  CH 488 DEVELOPING    

DEC-12- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
        2011- December - 13  
  57 flare class > C M X GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY: EARTH FACING ON: QUIET 5.5- 6.5

1- 2

 

SOLAR FLUX:

total flares > 02 --   55- 112 nT CH 488 DEC 11-12 UNSETTLED 2011- December - 14
  131 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s) 449-583 X RAY
BACKGROUND FLUX>

B 5.0

      MINOR STORM 5.5- 6.5

1- 2

 
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

Since begin of October 2011, increaased filament activities and eruptions producing significant CMEs were observed mainly on the Northern Sun hemisphere. As the Earth currently approaches its Southernmost distance to the Sun equator ( winter soltice) most of these CMEs have yet missed the Earth.

  MAJOR STORM 2011- December - 14  
  04 ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latitude: appr. EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED

ESTIMATED CME ARRIVALS   5.5- 6.5

1- 2

  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
rotating out of view                   IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES:  
  11366 55°- 79° W 18° N         20111213/ CH 488  

 

 
  11367 74°- 88° W 18° S            
  11372 37° - 51° W 08° N            
  11374 16° - 02° E 17° S DEC-14          
  11375 12°E- 02° W 10° N DEC-13          
                  * NEXT CME IMPACT> DEC 13-14* PROBABILITY:  
                         
               
STAR MAP by: solen.info
        STRENGTH:    
                    NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION / last 24 hours:  
                    geomagnetic storms (G)  

radio blackouts (R)

  solar radiation storms(S) --  
FILAMENT ACTIVITIES REGION EVENT ERUPTION TIME DURATION UNTIL: APPR. SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME: DESCRIPTION

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL

 
INTERNAL CME EVENT NR: 55 SOUTH- WEST QUADRANR minor filament eruption DEC- 13/ 01:26 UTC 5:57 (ongoing) GEMINI Minor but longer lasting CME eruption on the Souther hemisphere near to the Sun- equator . Due to the current Earth position, approaching the Southernmost distance to the Sun equator ("winter soltice"), this CME might by almost fully Earth directed DEC- 25/16  

SECTION 2

CME EVENT SECTION:    
CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs : 02 SOUTH- WEST QUADRANR minor filament eruption DEC- 13/ 01:26 UTC 5:57 (ongoing) GEMINI Minor but longer lasting CME eruption on the Souther hemisphere near to the Sun- equator . Due to the current Earth position, approaching the Southernmost distance to the Sun equator ("winter soltice"), this CME might by almost fully Earth directed DEC- 25/16  
INTERNAL CME EVENT NR: 54   NORTH EAST QUADRANT filament eruption Dec 11- 5:45 UTC Dec-11/9:40 UTC  

long stretching, not very strong but partially or fully Earth directed CME from filament eruption in North Eastern quadrant

INTERNAL CME EVENT NR: 54

remark: This CME has either missed the Earth or its arrival interfered with the current geomagnetic disturbances  

REGIONS WITH THE ESTIMATED CURRENTLY HIGHEST CME EFFECTS CAUSED BY THE LATEST LISTED CME IMPACTS- THE REGIONS ARE NAMED AFTER SEISMIC ACTIVE REGIONS AND TECTONIC PLATES.

Red means the region those were hit relatively strongest by the latest CME:

 
SOUTH WEST ASIA (INDONESIA, PHILLIPINES) CENTRAL PACIFIC: JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NORTH AMERICA- WESTERN PACIFIC: ALASKA NEW ZEALAND VANUATU CENTRAL AMERICA- COLUMBIA, PERU ... ATLANTIC & AMERICA SOUTH EURASIA & AFRICA ASIA MINOR  

TODAY`s CME EVENTS

CME ERUPTION EVENT REPORT (see images below) >

 

DEC- 12: some siginificant activities were observed: STEREO first had a transmission gap from 15: 39 UTC- 23: 54 UTC. The event must be revised later- This only single image transmitted after 23: 54 (1) shows a stronger eruption going of form the backside into north eastern direction: The next image (2) after another transmission gap at 4: UTC shows a minor CME eruption diametrically opposite on the front side . On SDO, several filament eruptions observed beginning lateon Dec 12- - this time on the Southern hemisphere near to the Sun- equator- prove as the origin of these events. The second longer lasting filament eruption (3) (4) near CH 488 that began on DEC 13 after 01: 26 UTC was the source of the minor CME observed on STEREO images : The eruption was ongoing at 5:.57 UTC , when SDO transmitted the last image available at the time of this update. Also SoHo has not transmitted yet images of this second event. The last image available at the time of this update was transmitted on Dec 13/ at 00:30 UTC and shows the prior backside event

 
INTERNAL CME EVENT NR: 55              

(1) 20111212/ 23: 54 UTC

20111212/ 4:24 UTC (3) 20111213/ 01:56 UTC (4) 20111213/ 05:57 UTC (5) 20111213/ 0:30 UTC   Today`s GOEShp Magnetometer plot - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD  
   
STEREO AHEAD STEREO AHEAD SDO /AIA SDO /AIA SoHO    
     

SECTION 3 >

ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG-

 
TODAY`s REPORTS: MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL POSSIBLY FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY!    
special remarks:

note: the correctness of data published by the offical institutes such as NOAA or EMSC is the responsibility of these institutes not mine

 
LATEST GLOBAL EARTHQUAKES ABOVE M 6.0

NAME of REGION:

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: MAGNITUDE DEPTH CATHEGORY CLICK TO FIND LOCATION WITH GOOGLE EARTH:  
EURASIA: ABOVE M 5.0 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA 0.03 N ; 123.13 E 2011-12-13 07:52 UTC M 6.1 165 km unknown    

 

             
     

VOLCANOES

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL LOCAL SURVEY GOOGLE EARTH WEBCAM

SOURCES:

 
TODAY s NEW EVENTS FUEGO 14°28'22"N/ 90°52'49"W DEC_ 13- 2011 reduced to yellow INSUMVEH FUEGO   volcano discovery.com  
  INSIVUMEH reported that on 9 and 13 December explosions from Fuego produced rumbling sounds and ash plumes that rose 300-600 m above the crater and drifted W, SW, and S. Block avalanches descended the SW flank toward the Ceniza drainage.    
STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: STRENGTH DIRECTION CATHEGORY

SOURCES:

 

found at:

globaldisasterwatch.blogspot.com/

NORTHERN EUROPE

UK put on severe weather alert with forecast of TWO huge storms:

Two huge storms are forecast to batter many parts of the UK this week with London and the south of England set to bear the brunt of the severe conditions from tomorrow....read more...

www.clickgreen.org.uk/ 20121211  
CLIMATE                
THAILAND

Drought threat increasing as reserves fall.

Some provinces could be hit with drought next year due to dwindling water reserves, says Anond Snidvongs, the water management adviser to the Flood Relief Operations Command. As the floods are receding, drought could emerge as a new problem hitting some areas next year especially in provinces which do not benefit from the Royal Irrigation Department's irrigation system, he said. "The severe cold this year points to a drought crisis next year," Mr Anond said during the launch of http://www.GreenNewsTV.com, the web TV outlet of the Thai Society of Environmental Journalists (Thaisej). He said massive drainage of water during the flood period could also lead to drought.

www.bangkokpost.com/20111212  
SPECIAL REPORTS:                

9.0 quake in HONSHU/ Japan- March- 11- 2011

Japan quake-tsunami recast undersea terrain

SAN FRANCISCO – Undersea views reveal that Japan's colossal earthquake ripped deep fissures in the seafloor and raised undersea cliffs hundreds of feet, while spawning waves that destroyed billion-dollar seawalls, scientists reported here Tuesday...."They were doomed to start with," says tsunami expert Costas Synolakis of the University of Southern California. A $1.6 billion undersea breakwall outside the town of Kamaishi, for example, "didn't protect the town," he says, taking perhaps 6 feet off of a 40-foot tsunami wave. Funneled by narrow sea canyons, waves as high as 130 feet hit some towns, powered by the seafloor's abrupt piston-like bucking during the quake....read more...

www.usatoday.com/tech  
 

Japan megaquake shifted gravity satellite orbits

The Tōhoku earthquake that rattled Japan on 11 March changed Earth's gravitational field enough to affect the orbits of satellites. The satellites' altered courses suggest that the earthquake was stronger and deeper than instruments on Earth indicated.These weren't just any satellites: they are the twin spacecraft of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), which fly 220 kilometres apart in a polar orbit about 500 kilometres above Earth. GRACE's job is to map the Earth's gravity field, and it does this by monitoring the effect of minute variations in the field on the trajectories of the satellites and the changing distance between them.....read more...

www.newscientist.com  
 

 

 

                             

YEAR:

2011

 

MONTH:

DECEMBER

 

DAY:

12

             

SECTION 1 >

SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info) visit solen.info for more informations   INTERNAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*  
LAST REPORT (previous day) SOLAR PARAMETERS (for more detailled informations on the Solar activity go to : solen.info-/ or: SunSpotWatch.com CORONAL HOLES (solen.info CORONAL HOLES (CH)   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: ESTIMATED MAXIMUM MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  
  CH 488 DEVELOPING    

DEC-11- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
        2011- December - 12  
  103 flare class > C M X GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY: EARTH FACING ON: QUIET 5.5- 6.5

1- 2

 

SOLAR FLUX:

total flares > -- --   55- 112 nT CH 488 DEC 11-12 UNSETTLED 2011- December - 13
  134 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s) 363-593 X RAY
BACKGROUND FLUX>

B 4.7

      MINOR STORM 5.5- 6.5

1- 2

 
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

Since begin of October 2011, increaased filament activities and eruptions producing significant CMEs were observed mainly on the Northern Sun hemisphere. As the Earth currently approaches its Southernmost distance to the Sun equator ( winter soltice) most of these CMEs have yet missed the Earth.

  MAJOR STORM 2011- December - 14  
  05 ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latitude: EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED

ESTIMATED CME ARRIVALS   5.5- 6.5

1- 2

  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
rotating out of view 11364 82°- 96°W 20° N             IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES:  
  11366 46°- 60° W 18° N DEC- 08          

 

 
  11367 57°- 71° W 18° S DEC 07            
  11372 23° - 37° W 08° N            
  11374 29° - 15° E 17° S DEC-13          
  11375 24°- 10° E 10° N DEC-13          
                  * begin of volcanic activity DEC 13-14 PROBABILITY:  
                      DEC 10- 12  
                          STRENGTH: 02  
                    NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION / last 24 hours:  
                    geomagnetic storms (G)  

radio blackouts (R)

  solar radiation storms(S) --  

SECTION 2

CME EVENT SECTION:    
CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs : 01 NORTH EAST QUADRANT filament eruption Dec 11- 5:45 UTC Dec-11/9:40 UTC   long stretching, not very strong but partially or fully Earth directed CME from filament eruption in North Eastern quadrant DEC 13  

RELATED CME ERUPTION EVENT REPORT >

 

Any major eruptive event might have occured on Dec 10 after 9:00 UTC. SoHo had a data gap since then. STEREO AHEAD had a data gap between 16: 24 UTC and 23: 24 UTC and did not submit the missing images yet, BEHIND had a data gap from 17:55 - 22: 25 UTC. SDO had a full transmission and showed no anomalities during these times but observed a beginning large filament eruption on the North eastern quadrant

 

REGIONS WITH THE ESTIMATED CURRENTLY HIGHEST CME EFFECTS CAUSED BY THE LATEST LISTED CME IMPACTS- THE REGIONS ARE NAMED AFTER SEISMIC ACTIVE REGIONS AND TECTONIC PLATES.

Red means the region those were hit relatively strongest by the latest CME:

 
SOUTH WEST ASIA (INDONESIA, PHILLIPINES) CENTRAL PACIFIC: JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NORTH AMERICA- WESTERN PACIFIC: ALASKA NEW ZEALAND VANUATU CENTRAL AMERICA- COLUMBIA, PERU ... ATLANTIC & AMERICA SOUTH EURASIA & AFRICA ASIA MINOR  
     

SECTION 3 >

ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG-

 
TODAY`s REPORTS: MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL POSSIBLY FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY!    
special remarks:

note: the correctness of data published by the offical institutes such as NOAA or EMSC is the responsibility of these institutes not mine

 

VOLCANOES

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL LOCAL SURVEY GOOGLE EARTH WEBCAM

SOURCES:

 
  SORIKMARAPI/ Sumatra/Ind. 0°41'9"N/ 99°32'22"E DEC- 12- 2011 level 2 of 4 CVGHM SORIKMARAPI none GVP  
 

SORIKMARAPI

CVGHM reported increased seismicity from Sorik Marapi during 1-12 December and white plumes rose 40-50 m above the summit. CVGHM raised the Alert Level on 12 December from 1 to 2 (on a scale of 1-4) based on seismic data.

GVP  
TODAY s NEW EVENTS MERAPI/ Indonesia 7°32'30"S/ 110°26'30"E DEC- 12- 2011 level 2 of 4 CVGHM MERAPI none  
MERAPI/ Indonesia CVGHM reported increased seismicity from Merapi during 1-12 December and white plumes rose 40-50 m above the summit. CVGHM raised the Alert Level on 12 December from 1 to 2 (on a scale of 1-4) based on seismic data.

GVP ( global Volcanism program/ USGS/ Smithsonian inst.

 
SEVERE WEATHERS>

DATE AND UTC- TIME:

NAME / EVENT/ REGION

LOCATION (long/lat) STRENGTH DIRECTION CATHEGORY

SOURCES:

 

 

     
SPECIAL REPORTS:                
 

US forecast of impending mega quake worries Kashmiris

It is like the doomsday prophecy for the Kashmir Valley. Intense debate Saturday followed an American seismologist's predictions of a magnitude-9 earthquake .Local newspapers carried front page stories about Roger Bilham of Colorado University predicting a major earthquake in Kashmir that could trigger landslides which would dam the Jhelum river and plunge the valley under water. The prediction also said that once released, the waters would cause major floods in Pakistan. "The two nations should develop a cooperative plan to deal with the aftermath of a Kashmir mega quake," Bilham's study has advised. The US professor has said his new global positioning system (GPS) data readings reveal the gradual movement of rocks in the Zanskar mountains north of the valley, and that the earlier estimates of the maximum possible quake in the region were low. In its typical doomsday forecast, the study warns: "The zone would rupture when a quake eventually happens. The quake would be 200 kilometres wide as against 80 kilometres predicted earlier." ...read more...

Deccanherald.com/20111210