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Alien-Homepage.de- Earth quake statistics

Alien-Homepage.de- Earth quake statistics- last update: NOVEMBER- 01 - 2011- --copyright: reserved

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SUN SPOT ACTIVITY ARCHIVE- OCTOBER 2011

click here to the archive directory for 2011

What you find on these related pages:

 

> STATISTIC RESEARCH ON THE RELATION BETWEEN SOLAR FEATURES/ ACTIVITIES TO EARTHQUAKES AND VOLCANISM AND OTHER CLIMATICAL EFFECTS

>EXPERIMENTAL "2 DAYS EARTHQUAKE AND VOLCANISM FORECAST" PROJECT BASED ON SOLAR ACTIVITY, resp these evaluation-

click here to get to the latest reports of the current month/year

 

SUN SPOTS EARTHQUAKE AND VOLCANISM/ NEW MONTHLY ARCHIVES:

This page had to be divided into monthly sections due to the high data load

< click on the buttom left for the archive page of 2010 (no monthly pages were made for 2010 yet)
click on the button ( left) for my NEW central archive with all monthly solar terrestrial blogs and related informations
                         
archived reports/ volcano watch- Oct- 2011 >

 

alien-homepage.de / internal links:

click here to get to the main page of this project>

HOME/ NAVIGATION default earthquake time is: UTC (GMT)>
       
       
        tzcon
       
Weathercenter reports and archives with maps, links, videos of earthquake disasters
    reports and archives with maps, links, videos of volcano disasters
ws     << Earthquake Statistics- START- with archives from 2004- 2010
     

image above by: NASA: STEREO ( two satellites - one called "AHEAD" the other: " BEHIND") observe the Sun`s surface from both opposite directions (at an ankle of 90° degrees to the line from Sun to Earth). The live feed is no more available. NASA claims to have problems with transmission of both stallites data streams and problems when processing the images. You tube user claim, NASA would censor the publications , since they hade discovered strange objects on the edges of the images ( click here for a youtube video that shows those strange objects )

NEW on my pages: volcano- earthquake and disaster maps:

on my regional maps you can find the current volcanic activites-updated weekly on Thursdays- and many more information

Kamchatka peninsula and Aleutian islands
Japan, Mariana Islands- Kyril islands
Indonesia and Philippines
Australia and Southern Pacific
Northern America
Central America and Mexico
South America- Northern part
South America- Southern part
Africa and Arabic peninsula
Europe and Western Asia

 

TRANSLATOR use the new improved Google translator for any site translations>>>  
NEW: VISIT my new site on Volcano activities ; begun in Oct 2010! On this page I want to create a timetable with worldwide volcano activities in 2010 and 2011. The site will also contain a list of volcanoes , a volcano map and other useful informations such as links to special reports or webcams: >just click here>> volcano activity timetable 2010/11
you must add 1 hour to the event dates, if you use my time converter as the converter default time is UTC+ 1
 

This page had to be divided into monthly sections due to the high data load

 

SUN SPOTS EARTHQUAKE AND VOLCANISM

ARCHIVE- OCTOBER 2011:

 

click on the tabs below to open and close the registercards for the single months archives:

click here to, open register card:

 

OCTOBER 2011

find most recent reports on my page environmental blog

 

( ( ( ( ( ( ( (
                                                   
  O            

YEAR:

2011

 

MONTH:

NOVEMBER

DAY:

01

                   

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info)

visit solen.info for more informations   INTERNAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*           ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
LAST REPORT SOLAR PARAMETERS (for more detailled informations on the Solar activity go to : solen.info-/ or: SunSpotWatch.com CORONAL HOLES (solen.info CORONAL HOLES (CH)   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: ESTIMATED MAXIMUM MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  

EARTHQUAKES AND VOLCANOES TODAY

CME IMPACTS

 
  CH 482: RECURRENT     see yesterday`s report!  

OCT- 31- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
CH 483 DEVELOPING     2011- November - 01  

:M 6.1 - NORTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA - 2011-11-01 00:21 UTC

 
  100 flare class > C M X GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY: EARTH FACING ON: QUIET 6.0-> 7.5 2- 3  
 

SOLAR FLUX:

total flares > 06 02 --

37- 140 nT

CH 482/ 483 NOV 01-02 UNSETTLED 2011- November - 02  
  138 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s) 346 - 443 X RAY
BACKGROUND FLUX>

B 8.8

slightly dropping temperatures   MINOR STORM 6.0-> 7.5 2- 3    
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

 

  MAJOR STORM 2011- November - 03    
 

08

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latidude: EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: CME ARRIVALS: 6.0- 7.5 2  
  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):  
rotating out of view today 11330 53° - 67°W 08°N                 IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES    
11332 11°- 25° W 31°N                  
  11333 41°-55°W 15° N                      
  11334 12°E-03° W 12° N NOV- 01                  
>NEWLY EMERGED> 11335 17°- 03°E 18° N NOV- 02               ALERTS: increase in volcanic activity  
>NEWLY EMERGED> 11336 55°- 41°E 17° N NOV- 04 critical                
>NEWLY EMERGED> 11367 66°- 52°E 17°N NOV- 05               TEMPORARY LOCAL GLACIAL MELTDOWNS.  
CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs > -- CME arrival notices > The material was ejected on Oct 28 form the filament eruption North of AR 11330 arrived on OCT- 31     ?   NOAA/ Top News of the Day: NOV- 01- 2011  
                       

geomagnetic storms (G):

radio blackouts (R)

  solar radiation storms(S) --  

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA/ CME AND FLARE ACTIVITIES TODAY:

                               

A major Earth directed CME was observed on Oct- 31 (img 01) . STEREO AHEAD had a data gap after 14: 54 UTC- caused by an intense xray burst and storming- -and might deliver the missing images later . STEREO BEHIND (2) made a full coverage on Oct- 31, . The source of the CME was one of the numerous filament eruptions , observed during the last days on the Northern Earth facing hemisphere.

SoHO als had a data gap after 17: 54 and transmitted the first image of the event at 32:45 UTC (3)when most of the CME had already dissolved into space>

 

(1) 20111031/ 18: 54 UTC (2) 20111031/ 21:09 UTC: (3) 20111031/ 23: 42 UTC 20111019/ 20:27 UTC 20111030/ 0. 27 UTC 20111031/ 15:58 UTC            
           
STEREO-"AHEAD" STEREO-"BEHIND" SoHO AIA 193 AIA 193 AIA 335            
                  SDO /AIA shows a minor filament activity in the animated mode beginning late on Oct- 29 . The new Coronal Hole that became visible on OCT- 31 after 15:58 UTC            
                                               
REGIONS WITH CURRENTLY HIGHEST ESTIMATED EARTHQUAKE PROBABILUITY (SEISMIC ACTIVE REGIONS ANDTECTONIC PLATES AFFECTED BY RECENT CME IMPACTS)       ^GOEShp- OCT- 29- 31- 2011:  
SOUTH WEST ASIA (INDONESIA, PHILLIPINES) CENTRAL PACIFIC: JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, WESTERN PACIFIC: ALASKA NEW ZEALAND VANUATU NORTH AMERICA AND CENTRAL AMERICA- COLUMBIA, PERU ... ATLANTIC & AMERICA SOUTH EURASIA & AFRICA ASIA MINOR              
                                                   
  O            

YEAR:

2011

 

MONTH:

OCTOBER

DAY:

31

                   

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info)

visit solen.info for more informations   INTERNAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*           ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
LAST REPORT SOLAR PARAMETERS (for more detailled informations on the Solar activity go to : solen.info-/ or: SunSpotWatch.com GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES (CH)   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: ESTIMATED MAXIMUM MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  

EARTHQUAKES AND VOLCANOES TODAY

CME IMPACTS

 
  CH 482: RECURRENT     see yesterday`s report!  

OCT- 30- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
CH 481 low speed wind stream?     2011- October - 31  

:

 
  80 flare class > C M X GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY: EARTH FACING ON: QUIET 6.0- 7.5 2  
 

SOLAR FLUX:

total flares > 08 - --

62- 137 nT

CH 482 NOV 01-02 UNSETTLED 2011- November - 01  
  126 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s) 269 - 419 X RAY
BACKGROUND FLUX>

B 5.0

slightly dropping temperatures   MINOR STORM 6.0-> 7.5 2- 3    
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

 

  MAJOR STORM 2011- November - 02    
 

06

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latidude: EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: CME ARRIVALS: 6.0-> 7.5 2- 3  
  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):  
rotating out of view today 11324 84°- 96° W 12° N                 IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES    
                       
11330 40° - 56°W 08°N                      
11332 01°- 15° W 31°N                    
11333 31°-44°W 15° N                 ALERTS: increase in volcanic activity  
>NEWLY EMERGED> 11334 25°-11° E 12° N NOV- 01               TEMPORARY LOCAL GLACIAL MELTDOWNS.  
CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs > -- CME arrival notices >

filament eruption North of AR 11330 on OCT- 27 after 11:50 UTC. Some more material was ejected on Oct 28.

OCT- 30?   ?   NOAA/ Top News of the Day: OCT- 31- 2011  
                        geomagnetic storms:

 

solar radiation storms: --  
REGIONS WITH CURRENTLY HIGHEST ESTIMATED EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY (SEISMIC ACTIVE REGIONS ANDTECTONIC PLATES AFFECTED BY RECENT CME IMPACTS)       ^GOEShp- OCT- 29- 31- 2011:  
SOUTH WEST ASIA (INDONESIA, PHILLIPINES) CENTRAL PACIFIC: JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, WESTERN PACIFIC: ALASKA NEW ZEALAND VANUATU NORTH AMERICA AND CENTRAL AMERICA- COLUMBIA, PERU ... ATLANTIC & AMERICA SOUTH EURASIA & AFRICA ASIA MINOR            
                         
                                                   
  O            

YEAR:

2011

 

MONTH:

OCTOBER

DAY:

30

                   

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info)

visit solen.info for more informations   INTERNAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*           ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
LAST REPORT SOLAR PARAMETERS (for more detailled informations on the Solar activity go to : solen.info-/ or: SunSpotWatch.com GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES (CH)   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: ESTIMATED MAXIMUM MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  

EARTHQUAKES AND VOLCANOES TODAY

CME IMPACTS

 
  CH 482: GROWING    

a significant solar wind shock was observed today on GOES hp after 09:00 UTC , most likely the arrival of the CME observed on Oct 27 after 11:50 .

The values have exceeded 100 nT soon after 9:00 UTC. Values were still rising at time of this update. The main region covered by the CME impact will therefore begin at Eurasia ( 30 ° E) and immidiate effect might be noticed mainly on the Northern hemisphere as the CME itself also was halfly Northern directed.

Immidiate effects such as volcanism or EM disturbances therefore be expected mainly in these regions:

EUROPE and ASIA MINOR

FURTHER: ATLANTIC, CENTRAL AMERICA, COLUMBIA AND PERU.

EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TODAY, BUT WILL INCREASE ON THE FOLLOWING DAYS! ( read daily forecast)

 

 

OCT- 29- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
CH 481 low speed wind stream?     2011- October - 30  

:EL HIERRO / CANARY ISLANDS:

( click here for my internal map)

The number of single quakes in the Earthquake swarms around has decreased. since and ongoing subsea eruption began on Oct- 12 South east offshore the island- But: As observed since Aug 23, the new earthquake activities have shifted towards the island`s Northwest right into the middle of the Valley El Golfo Bay, where the most residents live. The magnitudes around El Hierro are still rising, Yesterdays largest magnitudes. There is still red alert in place for the South ( La Restinga) and yellow for the rest of the island(> Cabildo El Hierro)

M 3.9 - CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION - 2011-10-30 07:46 UTC

------

El HIERRO updates by: volcano discovery:El Hierro volcano (Canary Islands, Spain): deep earthquake swarms in the El Golfo area

pdf PUBLISHED by CabildoEl Hierro to " New born" submarine volcano South Of El Hierro

 
  91 flare class > C M X GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY: EARTH FACING ON: QUIET 6.0- 6.5 1-2  
 

SOLAR FLUX:

total flares > 03 - --

87- 120 nT

CH 482 NOV 01-02 UNSETTLED 2011- October - 31  
  133 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s) 270 - 338 X RAY
BACKGROUND FLUX>

B 4.3

slightly dropping temperatures   MINOR STORM 6.0- 7.5 2    
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

 

  MAJOR STORM 2011- November - 01    
 

02

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latidude: EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: CME ARRIVALS: 6.0-> 7.5 2- 3  
  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):  
  11324 70°- 84° W 12° N                 IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES    
  11325 38°- 52° W 15° N                  
  11330 26°- 40°W 08°N OCT-27               HURRICANES AND HEAVY WEATHERS:    
  11332 15°- 01° E 31°N OCT-30              

Today`s Tropical storms by: globaldisasterwatch

( BBC-20111030)Early snowstorm hits US East Coast killing at least six

(BBC-20111031)Thailand floods: Nervous wait for Bangkok residents

 

 
  11333 17°-31°W 15° N                 ALERTS: increase in volcanic activity  
>NEWLY EMERGED>                       TEMPORARY LOCAL GLACIAL MELTDOWNS.  
CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs > -- CME arrival notices >

filament eruption North of AR 11330 on OCT- 27 after 11:50 UTC. Some more material was ejected on Oct 28.

has arrived:Oct- 30/ 09:00 UTC   impact zone:45° E - ?   NOAA/ Top News of the Day: OCT- 30- 2011  
                        geomagnetic storms:

 

solar radiation storms: --  
REGIONS WITH CURRENTLY HIGHEST ESTIMATED EARTHQUAKE PROBABILUITY (SEISMIC ACTIVE REGIONS ANDTECTONIC PLATES AFFECTED BY RECENT CME IMPACTS)       ^GOEShp- OCT- 28- 30- 2011:  
SOUTH WEST ASIA (INDONESIA, PHILLIPINES) CENTRAL PACIFIC: JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, WESTERN PACIFIC: ALASKA NEW ZEALAND VANUATU NORTH AMERICA AND CENTRAL AMERICA- COLUMBIA, PERU ... ATLANTIC & AMERICA SOUTH EURASIA & AFRICA ASIA MINOR            
                         
                                                 
  O            

YEAR:

2011

 

MONTH:

OCTOBER

DAY:

29

                   

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info)

visit solen.info for more informations   INTERNAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*   Earthquakes       ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
LAST REPORT SOLAR PARAMETERS (for more detailled informations on the Solar activity go to : solen.info-/ or: SunSpotWatch.com GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES (CH)     ESTIMATED MAXIMUM MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)        
          HEAVY WEATHERS MISCANCELLOUS REPORTS:  

OCT- 28- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
CH 481 RECURRENT   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: 2011- October - 29  

 

(Washington Post- 20111029)Peru quake destroys 134 homes, injures dozens

LIMA, Peru — Peruvian authorities say 134 homes have been destroyed and 103 people treated at hospitals for injuries in a 6.9-magnitude quake just off the central coast. read more...

( Fox.news- 20111028)Ash Cloud Rises Above Restive Chilean Volcano: >>>

Chile's Hudson Volcano released three huge columns of steam and ash that combined in a cloud more than 3 miles high on Friday, threatening a much larger eruption that had authorities in Chile and Argentina on red alert.read more...

  73 flare class > C M X GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY: high speed wind stream? QUIET 6.0- 7.0 1-2  
 

SOLAR FLUX:

total flares > 05 - --

82- 110 nT

EARTH FACING ON: UNSETTLED 2011- October - 30  
  123 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s) 278 - 435 X RAY
BACKGROUND FLUX>

B 5.0

    MINOR STORM 6.0- 7.0 2    
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

 

  MAJOR STORM 2011- October - 31    
 

02

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latidude: EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: CME ARRIVALS: 6.0- 7.5 2- 3
  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
rotating out of view today 11324 56°- 70° W 12° N   Oct- 27 9:23 UTC C LIBRA weak/ partial halo has arrived>   has arrived:Oct- 29/ 17:45 UTC? IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES  

HURRICANES:

                       

 

Today`s Tropical storms by: globaldisasterwatch


  11330 12°- 26°W 08°N                

EARTHQUAKE FORECAST AFTER CME IMPACT:

 
  11332° 01°- 15° W 31°N OCT-30              

The main part of the minor CMEs has arrived on Oct 29 after 17:45 , impacted over the longitude 75° W. ( Central America and USA, Columbia, Peru, Ecudaor) and likely has created minor tectonic movement on the plate boundaries of the northern and Southern american plate to the Pacific and might again slightly increase volcanic activity. Minor - medium Earthqu might follow after all current CME have impacted and plates have colled down ( see daily reports)

The CME was with a maximum of 120 nT very weak. The second stronger CME after the filament eruption on Oct 27 is expected to arrive on Oct 30

 
  11333 02°-17°W 15° N                 ALERTS: increase in volcanic activity  
>NEWLY EMERGED>                       TEMPORARY LOCAL GLACIAL MELTDOWNS.  
CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs > 01 CME arrival notices >

filament eruption North of AR 11330 on OCT- 27 after 11:50 UTC. Some more material was ejected on Oct 28.

OCT- 30?       NOAA/ Top News of the Day: OCT- 29- 2011  
                          geomagnetic storms:

 

solar radiation storms: --  
CME activities- Oct 28 and 29 2011: (1) 20111028/ 6:39 UTC (2) during the day this activity decreased but intensified again after 20: 40 UTC, triggering a long lasting additional sun wind stream from the filament North of AR 11230 heading into Earth direction (3)>   (2) 20111028/ 21:09 UTC (3) 20111029 / 9: 35 UTC

Quite interestingly but also logically,larger flare seem to produce weaker CMEs and opposite.On SoHO the minor first event was visible as a very faint , but fully halo CME on SoHO >.

The second event was a minor filament eruption on OCT- 28, after 22:00 UTC. SDO had adata gap from22:13 until 22:13 UTC

(4) 20111028/ 6:30 UTC 20111029/0 :30 UTC  
(1) a larger backside event probably a x flare with a later CME was observed on Oct- 28 after 1 UTC heading into Southwestern direction ( Sagittarius?)    
    STEREO- AHEAD     STEREO- AHEAD STEREO- AHEAD SoHO- LASCO C3 later event( backside flare)        
                                                 
  O            

YEAR:

2011

 

MONTH:

OCTOBER

DAY:

28

                   

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info)

visit solen.info for more informations   INTERNAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*   Earthquakes       ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
LAST UPDATE SOLAR PARAMETERS (for more detailled informations on the Solar activity go to : solen.info-/ or: SunSpotWatch.com GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES (CH)     ESTIMATED MAXIMUM MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)        
  :     HEAVY WEATHERS VOLCANOES TODAY  

OCT- 27- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
CH 481 RECURRENT   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: 2011- October - 28  

 

The volcano CERRO HUDSON erupted today, following seismic activities that had prompted the Chilene authorities to evacuate the poorly populated region around the volcano yesterday.

aerial images show large plumes of steam emmitting from two areas on the stratovolcano in the South of Chile. The volcano has also emmited a plume of smoke, while the seismic activity around the volcano is still increasing

> short video of the eruption + Earthquake Turkey, El Hierro>

image: (CERRO HUDSON ( Wikipedia))

see also: ( Mt Hudson on my internal sat-map/ Chile)/

click here and your Google earth programm will automatically navigate to Mt. Hudson:

 
  85 flare class > C M X GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY: high speed wind stream? QUIET 6.0- 7.0 1-2  
 

SOLAR FLUX:

total flares > 01 - --

75- 105 nT

EARTH FACING ON: UNSETTLED 2011- October - 29  
  131 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s) 356 - 474 X RAY
BACKGROUND FLUX>

B 3.4

      MINOR STORM 6.0- 7.0 1-2   EARTHQUAKES
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

 

  MAJOR STORM 2011- October - 30   M 7.0 - NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU - 2011-10-28 18:54 UTC
 

04

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latidude: EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: CME ARRIVALS: 6.0- 7.0 2
  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
  11324 42°- 56° W 12° N   Oct- 27 9:23 UTC C LIBRA weak/ partial halo OCT_ 28     IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES  

HURRICANES:

  11325 26°- 40° W 15° N OCT- 26              

 

Today`s Tropical storms by: globaldisasterwatch/

Tropical storm Rina was located about about 20 mi (30 km) W of Cozumel, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the east and north coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula from Punta Allen to San Felipe

Weather Underground.com


rotating out of view today> 11327 79°- 93°W 19° S                    
  11330 02E°-12° W 08°N OCT-26                
  11332 13°E°- 1°W 31°N OCT-30               ALERTS: increase in volcanic activity  
>NEWLY EMERGED> 11333 12°E-4°W 15° N                 TEMPORARY LOCAL GLACIAL MELTDOWNS.  
CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs > 02 CME arrival notices >

filament eruption North of AR 11330 on OCT- 27 after 11:50 UTC

OCT- 29/30       NOAA/ Top News of the Day: OCT- 28- 2011  
                        geomagnetic storms:

 

solar radiation storms: --  
  CME activities- Oct 27 2011: see yesterday             ^GOEShp- OCT- 26- 28- 2011:  
  O

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info)

visit solen.info for more informations   EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*   Earthquakes       ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
date Solar special reports: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES (CH):   OCT- 27- 2011 magnitudes alert level   VOLCANOES TODAY HEAVY WEATHERS EL HIERRO. Latest video as published by CabildoEl Hierro on: Oct- 23- 2011

OCT- 26- 2011

SUNSPOTS:  
CH 481 DEVELOPING?   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: 2011- October - 27  

( Huffington Post- 20111026)Mount Lokon Volcano Erupts In Central Indonesia, No Injuries Reported

(AP- 20111027) Chile Orders Evacuation Near Rumbling Volcano

--

CERRO HUDSON ( Southern Chile) red alert:

OVDAS-SERNAGEOMIN reported three new craters at Cerro Hudson following increased seismicity that was detected during 25-26 October...map..

---

BATU TARA set on yellow alert:

(see: map)

---

DUKONO ( set on yellow alert)

---

 

(Euronews.net- 20111027)/Deadly floods hit Italy

In pictures: Italy battles floods

Just one week ago the alpes were already (rather early for the season) covered with snow. It must be questioned weather these flooding might have to do with suddenly melted snow from the mountains

wallstreet jourmal- 20111027: Floods Spread to Myanmar

(BBC- 20111027)Bangkok floods: Thousands flee as waters approach

 
  104 flare class > C M X GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY: high speed wind stream? QUIET

5.5- 7.0

1- 2

 

SOLAR FLUX:

total flares > 01 - -- 70- 120 nT EARTH FACING ON: UNSETTLED 2011- October - 28
  132 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s) 363 - 527 X RAY
BACKGROUND FLUX>

B 4.3

CH 481 OCT 25-26   MINOR STORM

5.5- 7.0

1- 2

 
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

 

  MAJOR STORM 2011- October - 29  
 

04

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latidude: EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: CME ARRIVALS:

5.5- 7.0

1- 2

  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
  11324 28°- 42° W 12° N   9:23 UTC C LIBRA weak/ partial halo OCT_ 28     IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES  
  11325 14°- 28° W 15° N OCT- 26                
  11327 65°- 79°W 19° S                 GOEShp- OCT- 25- 27- 2011:  
  11330 17°- 03° E 08°N OCT-28              

^GOEShp- OCT- 25- 27- 2011:

 
  11332 27°- 13° E 31°N OCT-31               ALERTS: increase in volcanic activity  
>NEWLY EMERGED>                       TEMPORARY LOCAL GLACIAL MELTDOWNS. HURRICANES: DIVERSE  
  02   weak but earth directed CME in AR 11324 on OCT- 26- after 9: 23 UTC OCT- 28          

Today`s Tropical storms by: globaldisasterwatch/ 2011-10-27:

1 tropical storm (Atlantic)

Category 1 Hurricane Rina was located about 120 mi (190 km) E of Chetumal, Mexico.

 

<< South Polar CH 481 is today in Earth facing position and might cause dropping temperatures on earth

( image: Star coronal hole and active region map by solen.info)

click here to see comparation to coronal holes on the same Sun longitude during previous rotation periods

 
CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs >   CME arrival notices >

filament eruption North of AR 11330 on OCT- 27 after 11:50 UTC

OCT- 29/30     NOAA/ Top News of the Day: OCT- 27- 2011  
                        geomagnetic storms:

 

solar radiation storms: --  
CME activities- Oct 26 and 27 2011: 20111026/ 12:09 UTC   20111026/ 15: 24 UTC 20111017/ 13: 24 UTC 20111017/ 15: 24 UTC 20111027/ 13:25 UTC 20111026/ 9:24 UTC 20111026-11:58 UTC 20111027/ 1152 UTC    

a minor but directly Earth directed CME erupted on Oct- 26 after 11:00 UTC. On STEREO it appeared stronger but on SoHO it was almost invisible. This CME might - due to the currently high average Sun wind speed - arrive on Earth on on OCT- 28.

another very weak CME erupted on Oct- 27 after 13:00 UTC after an filament eruption Northe of AR 11230. On STEREO it appeared even weaker than tze first one- on SoHO LASCO 2 it was well visible and partial halo.

     
STEREO- AHEAD   STEREO- AHEAD STEREO- AHEAD STEREO- AHEAD SoHO- LASCO C2 SDO /AIA SDO /AIA SDO /AIA-COMP    
  O

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info)

visit solen.info for more informations   EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*   Earthquakes       ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
date Solar special reports: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES (CH):   OCT- 26- 2011 magnitudes alert level  

EARTHQUAKE ALERTS:

VOLCANOES   EL HIERRO. Latest video as published by CabildoEl Hierro on: Oct- 23- 2011

OCT- 25- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
CH 481 DEVELOPING?   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: 2011- October - 26  

---

(foxnews.com/20111020) volcano Uturuncu/ Bolivia: Rapidly Inflating Volcano Creates Growing Mystery

----

LOKON-EMPUNG Sulawesi - set on yellow alert:

According to a news article, a gray plume rose 1.2 km above Tompaluan crater, in the saddle between the Lokon-Empung peaks, and drifted SW on 26 October, followed by an explosion that sent incandescent material as far as 800 m away from Tompaluan crater. A second eruption produced a plume that rose 500 m above the crater. ( see: map)

--

SANTA MARIA Guatemala- see: map- set on yellow alert-

NSIVUMEH reported that during 26-27 October gas plumes from Santa María's Santiaguito lava-dome complex rose 200 m above the crater and lava flows on the SE and SW flanks generated block avalanches that were deposited into the Río Nimá II drainage. Based on analyses of satellite imagery, the Washington VAAC reported that on 26 October an ash plume drifted 16.7 km SW and then rapidly dissipated. The next day satellite imagery showed a possible ash plume and a thermal anomaly.

 

 

  121 flare class > C M X GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY: high speed wind stream? QUIET 5.5 - 7.0 1- 2 HURRICANES:
 

SOLAR FLUX:

total flares > 01 - -- 00- 137 nT EARTH FACING ON: UNSETTLED 2011- October - 27

Today`s Tropical storms by: NOAA- 2011-10-26:

1 tropical storm (Atlantic)

Hurricane Rine is currently approaching the Yucatan peninsula

85° W 18° N

rainfalls of 8- 15 inches are expected- A dangerous stroms surge to impact the coast will bring large and destructive waves

  139 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s) 430 - 681 X RAY
BACKGROUND FLUX>

B 4.8

CH 481 OCT 25-26   MINOR STORM

5.5- 7.0

2

 
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

a minor small CME was observed on Oct 23, which has some Earth directed parts

  MAJOR STORM 2011- October - 28  
 

33

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latidude: EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: CME ARRIVALS:

5.5- 7.0

1- 2

  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
  11324 14°- 28° W 12° N                 IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES   Hurricane "Rina" as seen from space ( NASA.com)
  11325 00°- 14° W 15° N OCT- 26              
  11327 52°- 66°W 19° S   OCT- 23- 14:00 UTC C? SAGITTARIUS partial minor interferred with previous CME   Oct- 25 after 16:00 UTC video^: CabildoEl Hierro/ VUELO DOMINGO 23102011.mov emergencias (Cabildo El Hierro)
  11330 30°- 16° E 08°N OCT-28                
rotating out of view today> 11331 86°-100° W 09°N OCT-27              

ALERTS: increase in volcanic activity

 
  11332 41°- 27° E 31°N OCT-30               possible increase of storms and rainfalls.  
>NEWLY EMERGED>                       TEMPORARY LOCAL GLACIAL MELTDOWNS. DIVERSE  
CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs > 1 CME arrival notices >

a minor small CME was observed on Oct 23, which has some Earth directed part

        NOAA/ Top News of the Day: OCT- 26- 2011 global temperatures likely to drop today by the influence of CH 481  
                      geomagnetic storms:

 

solar radiation storms: -- ^GOEShp- OCT- 24- 26- 2011:  
  CME activities- Oct 25 and 26 2011:                        
                           
< coronal hole map (20111026)                      
O

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info)

visit solen.info for more informations   EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*   Earthquakes       ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
date Solar special reports: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES (CH):   OCT- 25- 2011 magnitudes alert level  

EARTHQUAKE ALERTS:

VOLCANOES TODAY:     DIVERSE

OCT- 24- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
CH 481 DEVELOPING?   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: 2011- October - 25  

 

NOAA first underestimated the CME and has corrected its alert level afterwards form none to G2 on Oct- 24.

TUNGURAHUA ( Ecuador set on red alert):

( Smithsonian/USGS) Based on a pilot observation, the Washington VAAC reported that on 24 October an ash plume from Tungurahua rose to an altitude of 7.3 km (24,000 ft) a.s.l. and drifted W. Ash was not observed in satellite imagery.

...see: map

 

TV BLACKOUTS IN GERMANY

LIKELY DISTURBANCES OF HIGH FREQUENCY RADIO TRANSMISSION BY INTERFERENCIES WITH SOLAR X RAY STORM AND INCOMING CME RADIATION ON OCT 23/ 24?

Several cities such as Munich and Stuttgart reported disturbances in recieving of highfrequency TV signals such as DVB.T on OCT 23 and 24- 2011Some tenthousand household or more( specific report not found yet) in Stuttgart could not receive their Pay TV channels on Oct 23

On Oct- 24, in Munich Hunderthousands were without TV .

Some damages were reported on networks such as cable systems,. But disturbances continued after repair , People told, their equipment was checked, but no failure found.

TV-Störung in München: Hunderttausende betroffen

http://forum.digitalfernsehen.de/forum/digital-tv-ueber-kabel-dvb-c/283707-kabel-bw-stoerung-auf-allen-programmen.html

--------------------------

 

  125 flare class > C M X GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY:   QUIET 6.0- 7.0 1-2
 

SOLAR FLUX:

total flares > -- - -- 37- 200 nT! EARTH FACING ON: UNSETTLED 2011- October - 26
  145 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)(solen.info): 322 - 563 X RAY
BACKGROUND FLUX
>>

B 5.4

CH 481 OCT 25-26   MINOR STORM 6.0- 7.0 2  
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

only two very small flares were observed on Oct 22 and 23. ejecteing some material into S/Wand Northern direction, without any Earth directet parts.

  MAJOR STORM 2011- October - 27  

 

SANTA MARIA Guatemala ( set on yellow alert)

Based on analyses of satellite imagery, the Washington VAAC reported that on 25 October a narrow ash plume from Santa María's Santiaguito lava dome complex rose to an altitude of 4.3 km (14,000 ft) a.s.l. and drifted 30 km WNW. ( Smithsonian/USGS) ... see: map

---

BEZYMIANNY ( set on yellow alert)

KVERT reported that during 21-28 October seismic activity at Bezymianny was low. A thermal anomaly was observed in satellite imagery during 23-25 October, and fumarolic activity was observed during 23 and 25-26 October. The Aviation Color Code remained at Yellow. see: map

 

23

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latidude: EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: APPR SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: CME ARRIVALS: 6.0- > 7.0 2-3
  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
  11324 01°- 14° W 12° N OCT- 25               IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES  

HURRICANES:

CME ALERT :WARNING! TWO MAJOR FILAMENT ERUPTIONS OCCURED ON OCT 21 AND 22 - Both events ejected significant major CMEs with Earth- directed parts!These CMEs will arrive on Earth between the latter half of Oct 23 and latest on Oct 25 ( depending on unpredictable changes in solar wind speed) and very likely create a major geomagnetic storm.

Immidiate effects likely will be: Enhanced storms/ increased volcano activities or eruptions / possible electromagnetic disturbances!

See further details in report 20111022

  11325 15°- 01° E 15° N OCT- 26              

(BBC- 20111024)Thailand floods: Waters advance on north Bangkok areas

(BBC-20111024)Dublin on emergency footing as floods cause chaos

Hurricane reports by globaldisasterwatch:

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Atlantic -
Category 1 Hurricane Rina was located about 340 mi (550 km) ESE of Chetumal, Mexico.

  11327 39°- 53°W 19° S   OCT- 23- 14:00 UTC C? SAGITTARIUS? partial minor OCT- 25    
  11328 27°- 41°W 19° N                  
  11330 45°- 31° E 08°N OCT-28              

ALERTS: increase in volcanic activity

  11331 75°- 89° W 09°N OCT-27               possible increase of storms and rainfalls.
>NEWLY EMERGED> 11332 55°- 41° E 31°N OCT-30               TEMPORARY LOCAL GLACIAL MELTDOWNS.

GLACIERS:

CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs > 1 CME arrival notices >

the impact of the second CMEsthat emitted with the filament eruptions on Oct21/ 22 was much stronger than expected by NOAA .Values exceeded 200 nT!

a minor small CME was observed on Oct 23, which has some Earth directed part

last CME arrived:   OCT- 24- after 18:00 UTC   NOAA/ Top News of the Day: OCT- 25- 2011 (Chinese academy of sciences)Glacial fluctuations and its impacts on lakes in the southern Tibetan Plateau
          geomagnetic storms:

G1

solar radiation storms: -- ( spiegel.de)Chinesische Forscher warnen vor drastischem Gletscherschwund
    CME activities- Oct 23 and 24 2011: 20111023/ 14:30 UTC   20111023/ 20:18 UTC 20111023/ 20:09 UTC     20111024/ 6:30 UTC 20111024/ 7:24 UTC        
SoHO >>   > a minor CME erupting from a flare in AR 11327was observed on Oct 23. It has some Earth directed parts, those will not add much to the effects of the ongoing geomagnetic storm caused by the recent CME impacts on OCT- 23 and 24., but delay the Earthquakes for one day.  

 

 

 

< the minor CME observed early on Oct 24 was a backside event      
STEREO- A/B >>   SoHO- LASCO C 2   SoHO- LASCO C 2 STEREO- AHEAD   SoHO- LASCO C 2 STEREO- AHEAD        
  O

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info)

visit solen.info for more informations   EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*   Earthquakes       ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
date Solar special reports: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES (CH):   OCT- 24- 2011 magnitudes alert level  

EARTHQUAKE ALERTS:

VOLCANOES TODAY:     SEVERE WEATHERS:

OCT- 23- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
CH 480     GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: 2011- October - 24  

Earthquake Turkey (20111023):

More than 250 stronger afterquakes with magnitudes betweeen 3.0 und M 6.0 rattled Eastern Turkey since the large 7.2 Earthquake had destroyed the Kurdish city of Van in the mountainous area in Eastern Turkey on Oct- 23- 2011.The epicenter lied in a river valley that connects the lake Van with another lake further SouthEast. Lake Van is most likely a remainent mar of a former larger volcano. Its water contains reportedly so much Sodium that only one typ of fish is able to live in there. The region however lies on a West/ Eastern fault , part of the wide stretched transasiatic subduction zone. Seismic activities around these two large lakes had increased as well by number as by magnitude there since 2010 and were 2010 with magnitudes above 4.0 the relative strongest throughout Turkey

( spiegel.de/20111023)"Unsere Stadt liegt in Trümmern"

(BBC- 20111024)Hundreds die as strong quake rocks eastern Turkey ( incl video source)

 

EL HIERRO / CANARY ISLANDS:

seismic activity increased again also on the Island of El Hierro/ Canary islands. Magnitudes of 2.5 were measured this time in the the Northwest of the island on the edge of the olf shield volcano to the brake of that has formed the valley el Golfo. The increase is related to the CME impact yesterday . The activity will likely raise further today and over the next days with the arrival of the two other CMEs ( see report left. New eruptions seem to be likely possible !

LIVE- webcam/ El Golfo>

the valley was engulfed by clouds this morning at 8:30 UTC- the time of this update: I can`t say, whether parts of this clouds are steam emitting from one of the craters on the shield volcano >>

No emissions or other signs of an eruption were observed on the volcano cam of KATLA/ Iceland . KATLA was set on alert level red ( 3 of 4) after a seismic swarm on Oct 05 indicated intensive magma movements below the volcano shield . The volcano shield obvioulsy has made a typical tight seal above the volcano. While no steam or smoke can penentrate at the moment-, the awaited first eruption might rather occure in form of an explosive event.

Thailand/ Bangkoc:
  128 flare class > C M X GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY:   QUIET 6.0- > 7.0 1- 2
 

SOLAR FLUX:

total flares > 04 - -- 70- 110 nT EARTH FACING ON: UNSETTLED 2011- October - 25
  155 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)(solen.info): 270-343 X RAY
BACKGROUND FLUX
>>

B 7.6

      MINOR STORM 6.0- > 7.0 1-2  
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

only two very small flares were observed on Oct 22 and 23. ejecteing some material into S/Wand Northern direction, without any Earth directet parts.

  MAJOR STORM 2011- October - 26  
 

02

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latidude: EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: APPR. SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: CME ARRIVALS: 6.0- > 7.0 1-2
  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
  11317 77° - 91° W 26° S                 IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES  

CME ALERT :WARNING! TWO MAJOR FILAMENT ERUPTIONS OCCURED ON OCT 21 AND 22 - Both events ejected significant major CMEs with Earth- directed parts!These CMEs will arrive on Earth between the latter half of Oct 23 and latest on Oct 25 ( depending on unpredictable changes in solar wind speed) and very likely create a major geomagnetic storm.

Immidiate effects likely will be: Enhanced storms/ increased volcano activities or eruptions / possible electromagnetic disturbances!

See further details in report 20111022!

  11324 13°E- 1° W 12° N                
  11325 28°- 15° E 15° N OCT- 26              
rotating out of view today> 11326 76°- 90° W 17° N                 GOEShp- OCT- 22- 24- 2011:  
  11327 27°- 41°W 19° S   OCT- 23- 14:00 UTC C? LIBRA? partial minor OCT- 25      
  11328 16°- 30°W 19° N                

ALERTS: increase in volcanic activity

 
  11330 59°- 45° E 08°N OCT-28               possible increase of storms and rainfalls.  
>NEWLY EMERGED> 11331 60°- 74° W 09°N OCT-27               TEMPORARY LOCAL GLACIAL MELTDOWNS.

click on the following symbol and Google Earth will automatically find the Earthquake locaction for you:

M 7.2 - EASTERN TURKEY-2011 October 23 10_41_21 UTC

 
CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs > 2 CME arrival notices >

A large filament eruption was observed early on October 22 in the northwest quadrant. Although most of the ejected material is directed northwards, some of it could be heading towards Earth. If that's the case the CME will likely arrive on October 25. Another filament eruption with a partially earthbound CME was observed after 10:00 UTC

first CME arrived: OCT- 24- after 7:00 UTC   the first solar wind shock was followed by a sharp rise of geomagnatic field density   NOAA/ Top News of the Day: OCT- 24- 2011  
          geomagnetic storms: currently none solar radiation storms: none  
SoHO >>           NO CME was observed today until the time of this update       xx
STEREO- A/B >>                        
                     
SOURCES
solen.info solar terrestrical activity report (SUMMARY OF YESTERDAYS SOLAR DATA

*

o

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST (alien-homepage)

o
o

EMSC/ USGS: (EARTH QUAKE REPORTS WORLDWIDE)

GLOBAL VOLCANISM PROGRAM ( wekly reports on each Thursday)

SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC OBSERVATORIES

find all information about these spacecrafts on my page "Central Control ">>

   

LAST UPDATE

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

(YESTERDAY`s SUMMARY

( get more>) data by: solen.info-/ or: SunSpotWatch.com

GEOMAGNETIC CORONAL HOLES  

TODAY S SITUATION (Internal):

 

ESTIMATED MAXIMUM MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED SEVERENESS ( 1-3)  

EARTHQUAKES

AND VOLCANISM:

SoHO

Solar and Heliospheric Observatory

 

SDO /AIA

Solar Dynamics Observatory

STEREO

Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory

GOEShp

Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites

   

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info)

visit solen.info for more informations   EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*   Earthquakes       ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
date Solar special reports: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES (CH):   OCT- 23- 2011 magnitudes alert level  

EARTHQUAKE ALERTS:

CME ALERT : SEVERE WEATHERS:

OCT- 22- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
CH 480     GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: 2011- October - 23  

Unfortunately, I have underestimated the strength of the last multiple CME impacts ( Oct- 04- 08) and the tectonic plates needed longer time to cool down ( to the temperature where they contract and harden again ) to cause friction with other plates., It took at all 14 days during those lots of volcanic activities took place instead. This was the longest duration since I make these forecasts and confirms as well the strength/ energy and capabilities the 5 CMEs had. according the the values measured after their impact.But, however again it proves to be true, that at least one major Earthquake follows each impacts of such a strong CMEs as sure as 100 %.

I also thought the energy was released by the three quakes yesterday (Oct-23), and values above 100 nT had indicated, there might still enough energy for another larger quake. But I set the alert level back to green one day too early! In my update now at 17:15 UTC I changed the level to orange. allthough expect low and no more disastrous earthquake activities on the next days ( less even after this event)

The multiple impact of 5 CMEson Oct 04- 08 however gave a better insight in which time those complex events follow another, allthough the last forecast ever must be based on an estimation with a failure rate of one or two days.

However, a heavy Earthquake has shaked Turkey today and estimated between 500 -1000 persons were killed :

Magnitude 7.2 - EASTERN TURKEY2011 October 23 10:41:21 UTC

(BBC- 20111023)'Many killed' as Turkey hit by 7.2 magnitude quake.

WARNING! TWO MAJOR FILAMENT ERUPTIONS OCCURED ON OCT 21 AND 22 - Both events ejected significant major CMEs with Earth- directed parts!

These CMEs will arrive on Earth between the latter half of Oct 23 and latest on Oct 25 ( depending on unpredictable changes in solar wind speed) and very likely create a major geomagnetic storm.

Immidiate effects likely will be: Enhanced storms/ increased volcano activities or eruptions / possible electromagnetc disturbances!

See further details in report 20111022!

 
  164 flare class > C M X GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY:   QUIET 6.0- 7.0 1-2
 

SOLAR FLUX:

total flares > 03 01 -- 70- 110 nT EARTH FACING ON: UNSETTLED 2011- October - 24
  164 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)(solen.info): 275 - 359 X RAY
BACKGROUND FLUX
>>

B 9.3

      MINOR STORM 6.0- > 7.0 1- 2  
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

The first ( of three) minor CME has impacted today- OCT 23 after 14:00 UTC any will have its likely effects mainly in the regions of the ATLANTIC and SOUTH AMERICA (30- 90° W)

  MAJOR STORM 2011- October - 25  
 

03

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latidude: EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: CME ARRIVALS: 6.0- > 7.0 1-2
  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
rotating out of view today> 11317 77° - 91° W 26° S                 IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES  

The disastrous quake today )Oct- 23)occured in an area where reguularly smaller quakes take place, Recently values increased but never exceeded M 5.5 yet.

     
  11323 11°- 25° W 25° N                
  11324 16°- 02° E 12° N OCT- 23              
  11325 43°- 29° E 15° N OCT- 25               GOEShp- OCT- 21- 23- 2011:
  11326 63°- 77° W 17° N                
  11327 13°- 27°W 19° S   OCT- 21- after 14:00 ITC ot listed   partially      

ALERTS: increase in volcanic activity

possible increase of storms and rainfalls.

TEMPORARY GLACIAL MELTDOWNS.

  11328 04°- 18°W 19° N                
  11329 54°- 68° W 30°S                
>NEWLY EMERGED> 11330 72°- 58° E 08°N OCT-27                      
CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs > 3 CME arrival notices >

A large filament eruption was observed early on October 22 in the northwest quadrant. Although most of the ejected material is directed northwards, some of it could be heading towards Earth. If that's the case the CME will likely arrive on October 25

another filament eruption with partial earthbound was observed after 10:00 UTC

OCT 24- 25       NOAA/ Top News of the Day: OCT- 23- 2011
          geomagnetic storms: currently none solar radiation storms: none  
SoHO >>           NO CME was observed today until the time of this update        
STEREO- A/B >>                        
  O

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info)

visit solen.info for more informations   EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*   Earthquakes Volcanoes ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
date Solar special reports: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES (CH):   OCT- 22- 2011 magnitudes alert level  

EARTHQUAKE ALERTS:

TODAY`s CME ALERT :

      SEVERE WEATHERS:

OCT- 21- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
CH 480

DEVELOPING

  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: 2011- October - 22  

 

 

 

 

 

WARNING! TWO MAJOR FILAMENT ERUPTIONS OCCURED ON OCT 21 AND 22 - Both events ejected significant major CMEs with Earth- directed parts!

These CMEs will arrive on Earth between the latter half of Oct 23 and latest on Oct 25 ( depending on unpredictable changes in solar wind speed) and very likely create a major geomagnetic storm.

Immidiate effects likely will be: Enhanced storms/ increased volcano activities or eruptions / possible electromagnetc disturbances!

DESCRIPTION:

The last signifiant Earth directed CME had been observed on Oct 08. Now after the Sun was quiet for almost 2 weeks, three major events suddenly followed one after another. The first Earth directed CME was observed on Oct- 21 after 14:00 UTC (a CME eruption in AR 11327 - currently the largest sun spot on then visible disc that had produced flare activities ongoing for several days . The second and third was associated to a long duration filament eruption on the North- Western quadrant today- the first CME erupted on Oct- 21 after 22:OO UTC- the second today- Oct 22 after 10:00 UTC.. Allthough the main portion of the plasma Material heads towards the North , a large amount will also reach the Earth, likely enough to cause significant disturbances and effects

SoHo and STEREO again suffered a data gap caused by radiation emmited with these CMEs. The automatics usually then submits the missing images later.

  183 flare class > C M X GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY:   QUIET 6.0- > 7.0 1-2
 

SOLAR FLUX:

total flares > 03 01 -- 50- 100 nT EARTH FACING ON: UNSETTLED 2011- October - 23
  167 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (solen.info): 344 km/s. X RAY
BACKGROUND FLUX
>>

B 8.6

      MINOR STORM 6.0- 7.0 1-2  
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

 

  MAJOR STORM 2011- October - 24  
 

05

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latidude: EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: CME ARRIVALS: 6.0- > 7.0 3
  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
rotating out of view today> 11314 82° - 96° W 27° N                 IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES  
  11317 63° - 77° W 26° S                  
decaying 11319 80° - 66° W 10° N                  
decaying 11321 29°- 43°W 45°N                
  11323 00°- 14° W 25° N OCT- 22              
  11324 28°- 14° E 12° N OCT- 23              
  11325 57°-43° E 15° N OCT- 25              
>NEWLY EMERGED> 11326 49°- 63° W 17° N                    
>NEWLY EMERGED> 11327 02°- 16°W 19° S OCT-22 OCT- 21- after 14:00 ITC not listed NORTH/ VIRGO partially OCT 23-24        
>NEWLY EMERGED> 11328 8°E- 4°W 19° N                    
>NEWLY EMERGED> 11329 41°- 55° W 30°S                        
CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs > 3 CME arrival notices >

A large filament eruption was observed early on October 22 in the northwest quadrant. Although most of the ejected material is directed northwards, some of it could be heading towards Earth. If that's the case the CME will likely arrive on October 25

another filament eruption with partial earthbound was observed after 10:00 UTC

OCT 24- 25       NOAA/ Top News of the Day: OCT- 22- 2011
active regions rotating out of view today>         geomagnetic storms: currently none solar radiation storms: none
SoHO >>     - 20111022-02:30 UTC   SoHO- 20111022- 5:54 UTC EVENT DESCRIPTION: SoHO-20111022-11:30 UTC SoHO-20111022-12:45 UTC    
       

<<two huge major events occured one after another. The first Earth directed CME was observed on Oct- 21 after 14:00 UTC (a CME eruption in AR 11327 with its large sunspot and flare that was ongoing for several days ). The second was associated to a much larger filament eruption on the North- Western quadrant today- Oct 22 after. 23:00 UTC <

>Another, even larger filament eruption followed later today-Oct- 22 after 10:30 UTC

   
STEREO- A/B >> 20111021-14:32 UTC 20111021-22:09 UTC 20111022-02:39 UTC   20111022- 03:45 UTC SDO-20111022-0:54 UTC
20111022-05:41 UTC
SDO/ HMI 20111022-11:09 UTC 20111022- 12:24 UTC    
   

   
  O

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info)

visit solen.info for more informations   EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*   Earthquakes Volcanoes ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
date Solar special reports: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES (CH):   OCT- 21- 2011 magnitudes alert level  

EARTHQUAKE ALERTS:

VOLCANOES TODAY:

      SEVERE WEATHERS:

OCT- 20- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
CH 480

DEVELOPING

  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: 2011- October - 21  

ONE MAJOR CATHEGORY 2-3 EARTHQUAKE MIGHT STILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE NEXT DAYS!

ICELAND/ KATLA update:

Nothing is to see on the KATLA webcam yet of an visibly increasing activity. The Katla volcano on Icleand was set on Oct 05 on red alert level 3 of 4 by the global volcanism program, after an Earthquake swarm had again indicated a magma rise and an upcoming eruption. July 2011, the activity had increased the first time to a level indicating a red alert. The surfacial heat had melted all the icecap above the volcano, without any sign of a visible eruption

Click here to log on to the KATLA volcano webcam

HAWAII:

MOUNT MOA Volcano webcam

--

GORELY Southern Kamchatka- set on yellow alert ( see: map)

----

 

 

     

Central America has been stricken by torrential rains since last week after the succession of five hurricanes and tropical storms. El Salvador , Guatemala and Nicaragua declared the state of emergency with more than 100 people killed by floods and mudslides

 

(BBC- Oct 19-2011)Floods cause turmoil across Central America

---

THAILAND

Thailand floods: Bangkok 'impossible to protect'

  195 (!) flare class > C M X GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY: HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS> QUIET 6.0- > 7.0 2
 

SOLAR FLUX:

total flares >   01 -- 60- 105 nT EARTH FACING ON: UNSETTLED 2011- October - 22
  159 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (solen.info): 344 km/s. X RAY
BACKGROUND FLUX
>>

B 8.6

CH 480 OCT- 19   MINOR STORM 6.0- > 7.0 2  

EARTHQUAKES TODAY:

  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

no Earth directed CMEs were observed since Oct- 08

  MAJOR STORM 2011- October - 23   M 7.4 - KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION - 2011-10-21 17:57 UTC

M 6.1 - HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION - 2011-10-21 08:02 UTC

globaldisasterwatch.com

reports today about 2 medium Earthquakes ( M 4.0 and 4.2) that strucked California / Berkeley yesterday

 

03

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latidude: EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: CME ARRIVALS: 6.0- > 7.0 2
  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
decaying 11314 70° - 84° W 27° N                 IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES  
  11316 64° - 78° W 12° S                      
  11317 51° - 65° W 26° S                
  11319 70° - 84° W 10° N                 a significant larger eruption was observed by SoHo beginning on Oct- 19 after22:30 UTC >> The backside actvity peaked ( as seen from STEREO AHEAD over the Western limb)on Oct 20/ after 4:30 in an overall full halo CME. It was so strong that it knocked out SoHo for 6 hours ( Oct- 20- 23:00 UTC- Oct 21-6:00 UTC). Parts of this CME might effect on Earth on Oct-22- 23 at least by a higher background flux
  11321 17°- 31°W 45°N                
  11323 20°- 06° E 25° N OCT- 22                  
  11324 41°- 27° E 12° N OCT- 24                  
NEWLY EMERGED> 11325 60°-55° E 15° N OCT- 25                  
CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs > none CME arrival notices >

 

NOAA/ Top News of the Day: OCT- 21- 2011
active regions rotating out of view today>       geomagnetic storms: currently none solar radiation storms: none   ^ GOEShp- OCT- 19- 21- 2011 ( right image>) STEREO imagery shows, a event on Oct- 20 after 4:30 on the backside of the Sun, that also increased the long duration front side flare without triggering a CME. . The first of 2 following backsided CMEs began to erupt after Oct 19- around 20:00 UTC
NO SATELLITE IMAGES TODAY ( no further significant or Earth directed CMEs were observed until the time of this update)          
  O

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info)

visit solen.info for more informations   EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*   Earthquakes Volcanoes ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
date Solar special reports: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES (CH):   OCT- 20- 2011 magnitudes alert level  

EARTHQUAKE ALERTS:

VOLCANOES TODAY:

      new red volcano alerts:USGS ( Oct 18- 2011)

OCT- 19- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
CH 480

DEVELOPING

  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: 2011- October - 20  

ONE MAJOR CATHEGORY 2-3 EARTHQUAKE MIGHT STILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE NEXT DAYS!

 

A first and unexpected likely magmatic quake occured on the Western edge of the HUALALAI shield volcano on the island of Hawaii.HUALALAI had its last minor eruption in 1801.

Hualalai volcano, at the western end of the island, is the third youngest shield volcano on Hawaii. At 2523 m, it is dwarfed by its massive neighbors, the shield volcano. MAUNA LOA, to the South and MAUNA KEA to the South WEst

. MAUNA LOA is with a total height of 9 km / summit: 4170 m above sealevel) the largest active volcano on Earth and had its last know eruption in 1984.

,MAUNA KEA, Hawaii's highest volcano, reaches 4205 m, only 35 m above its neighbor, Mauna Loa. In contrast to Mauna Loa, Mauna Kea lacks a summit caldera and is capped by a profusion of cinder cones and pyroclastic deposits. (> visit HVO)

 

     

EL HIERRO/ Canary Islands(ongoing)

ALERT LEVEL 3 for KATLA/Iceland:

ALERT LEVEL 3 for TAMBORA/Indonesia:

  128 flare class > C M X GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY: HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS> QUIET 6.0- > 7.0 2
 

SOLAR FLUX:

total flares > 08 -- -- 62- 105 nT EARTH FACING ON: UNSETTLED 2011- October - 21
  147 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (solen.info): 346 - 414 km/s. X RAY
BACKGROUND FLUX
>>
C 1.0       MINOR STORM 6.0- > 7.0 2  
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

One CME was observed early on Oct 22 on the Northern filament

  MAJOR STORM 2011- October - 22  
 

04

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latidude: EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: CME ARRIVALS: 6.0- > 7.0 2
  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
decaying 11314 56° - 70° W 27° N                 IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES  
  11316 50° - 64° W 12° S                

M 4.5 - ISLAND OF HAWAII, HAWAII - 2011-10-20 00:10 UTC

USGS reported, an additional serial of swarm Earthquakes occured at the North flanc of Mauna Kea ( which is the dominant one since Mauna shea is yeat a caldera)Residents across the island reported feeling light to moderate shaking.USGS said :Deep earthquakes in the region are most likely caused by structural adjustments within the Earth's crust due to the heavy load of Mauna Kea.(click here to read full report)

  11317 37° - 51° W 26° S                  
  11319 54° - 70° W 10° N                  
  11321 03°- 17°W 45°N                
  11323 34°- 20° E 25° N OCT- 22                  
  11324 55°- 41° E 12° N OCT- 24                  
NEWLY EMERGED> 11325 83°-69° E 15° N OCT- 25                  
CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs > none             NOAA/ Top News of the Day: OCT- 20- 2011
active regions rotating out of view today>         geomagnetic storms: currently none solar radiation storms: none   ^ GOEShp- OCT- 18- 20- 2011 ^The long duration flare in the densely spotted AR 11324 continues now for days without producing a CME.

° (left) A stronger background activity was noticed around the time of this update that might trigger associated eruptions and a CME on the front side.

(right image) same event as observed by SoHO/ LASCO C3

 
NO SATELLITE IMAGES TODAY ( no further significant or Earth directed CMEs were observed until the time of this update)        
  O

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info)

visit solen.info for more informations   EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*   Earthquakes Volcanoes ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
date Solar special reports: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES (CH):   OCT- 19- 2011 magnitudes alert level  

EARTHQUAKE WARNING!

VOLCANOES TODAY:

          diverse

OCT- 18- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
CH4 80

DEVELOPING

  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: 2011- October - 19   under construction     ROSAT DECAY UPDATE ( by: spaceweather.com) : The doomed ROSAT X-ray space telescope continues to descend toward Earth. Multiple experts agree that re-entry should occur on Oct. 23rd, with most favoring the early hours of the day.
  155 flare class > C M X GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY:   QUIET 6.0- > 7.0 2
 

SOLAR FLUX:

total flares > 03 -- -- 63- 112 nT EARTH FACING ON > UNSETTLED 2011- October - 20
  147 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (solen.info): 345 - 382 km/s. X RAY
BACKGROUND FLUX
>>

B 8.6

CH 480 OCT- 19   MINOR STORM 6.0- > 7.0 2  
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

no Earth directed CMEs were observed since Oct- 08

  MAJOR STORM 2011- October - 21  
 

04

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latidude: EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: CME ARRIVALS: 6.0- > 7.0 2
  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
  11314 43° - 57° W 27° N                 IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES  
  11316 37° - 51° W 12° S                  
  11317 23° - 37° W 26° S                 M 5.5 - SOUTHERN IRAN - 2011-10-19 02:52 UTC
  11318 82°- 96°W 21° N                  
  11319 42° - 56° W 10° N                          
  11321 10°E- 04°W 45°N OCT- 19 critical                
  11323 43°- 29° E 25° N OCT- 22                  
  11324 70°- 56° E 12° N OCT- 24                  
CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs > none CME arrival notices >

 

NOAA/ Top News of the Day: OCT- 19- 2011
active regions rotating out of view today> 11318 82°- 96°W 21° N geomagnetic storms: currently none solar radiation storms: none ^image above: Oct- 19 active regions and coronal Holes( CH) by solen.info . CH 490 in earth facing position- click here, to compare this CH to coronal holes on the same Sun`s longitude during previous rotation periods      
NO SATELLITE IMAGES TODAY ( no further significant or Earth directed CMEs were observed until the time of this update)      
                                                     
  O

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info)

visit solen.info for more informations   EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*   Earthquakes Volcanoes ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
date Solar special reports: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES (CH):   OCT- 18- 2011 magnitudes alert level  

EARTHQUAKE WARNING!

VOLCANOES TODAY:

MY THEORY ABOUT THE CANARIES (DRAFT)

The island of El Hierro is at all and has also the obvious form of a shield volcano.It cannot be said what all exactly happened during the global catastrophy around the years 11.500 B.C. reported in the few but eldest reports

What perhaprs happened 11.500 BC was likely something likel a global or regional Earth crust shift, during which the European and African continent would have moved southwards.

The shield volcano of El Hierro hoever is meanwhile - as most volcanologists assume- however- located above that hot spot , that once had created what today is known as the Canary islands . Parts of the island already broke off from El Hierro`s North West and South East at any major event-.most likely when the islands where hit by an enourmous Tsunami during the rather complex events those took place on a global scale around 11.500 B.C . The debris from the island`s former Southeastern flank was found on the seafloor in that region where the current submarine eruption takes place

 

 

First video of the subsea eruption of HIERRO/ Canaries on March 17- 2011 published by cabildo De El Hierro:

OCT- 17- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
CH4 80

DEVELOPING

  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: 2011- October - 18  

THE EXPECTED EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES after the multiple CME impacts until Oct- 08 set in later than announced or expected . ( read all of this in my report on Oct- 14)

.The Earthquake that shaked Bali on Oct 13 will not be the last for now and was for SURE also not the strongest one!! I would rather expect at least one stronger Earthquake more until Oct- 20. This is why my alert level remains at yellow to red ( 2-3) until Oct- 20.

probable event regions:

EUROPE AND AFRICA ( Including ASIA MINOR and ICELAND) - SOUTH AMERICA - NORTHERN AMERICA ( USA) EAST COAST AND CENTRAL

El Hierro tourist map ( click to enlarge)

  165 flare class > C M X GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY:   QUIET 6.0- > 7.0 2- 3
 

SOLAR FLUX:

tital flares > 04 -- -- 45- 110 nT EARTH FACING ON > UNSETTLED 2011- October - 19
  153 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (solen.info): 349- 432 km/s. X RAY
BACKGROUND FLUX
>>

B 9.8

CH 480 OCT- 19   MINOR STORM 6.0- > 7.0 2  
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

no Earth directed CMEs were observed since Oct- 08

  MAJOR STORM 2011- October - 20  
 

03

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latidude: EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: CME ARRIVALS: 6.0- > 7.0 2
  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
  11314 41° - 55° W 27° N                 IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES  
11315 88°- 102° W 20° N                

>> It is just one remainent of several landslides found near the Canaries those most likely occured on all Canary islands at the same time.. What caused the brake off on the Northwestern part of El Hierro and what has left the valley del Golfo was possibly combined to a collapse of the former magma chamber of an primary Canary supervolcano

ACTIVITY THEORY:The African tectonic plate opens since begin of 2005 in the region of Afar(Etiopia) with some meters per year ( before 2005:1- 2 mm per year) So the African plate turns and pushes towards the Northwest and the Northern atlantic ocean . With the low resistence it finds on the soft volcanic rocks there, it now subducts the Canariesand began to lift up the shield of the El Hierro volcano. Dangerous if water surges into the volcano system and builds up steam and hydrogen pressure below the shield without a valve. Currently the pressure can get out and is eased by the submarine eruption along the submarine edge of the volcano shield

11316 25° - 39° W 12° S                
^active region today-s SDO/HMI 11317 12° - 26° W 26° S                 EARTHQUAKES ABOVE M 6.0 TODAY:
  11318 75°- 89°W 21° N                     M 6.0 - NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G. - 2011-10-18 05:05 UTC
  11319 25° - 39° W 10° N                    

  11321 32°- 18°E 45°N OCT- 19 critical                
NEWLY EMERGED> 11322 82° - 96° W 26° S                    
NEWLY EMERGED> 11323 56°- 44° E 25° N OCT- 22                  
NEWLY EMERGED> 11324 80°- 66° E 12° N OCT- 24                  
CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs > none CME arrival notices >

 

NOAA/ Top News of the Day: OCT- 18- 2011
active regions rotating out of view today> 11322 82° - 96° W 26° S        
  11315 88°- 102° W 20° N geomagnetic storms: currently none solar radiation storms: none   Sun activity over the last days: While the suhn spot number and X ray background activity has increased the overall flare and CME activity on the Sun is currently very low. OCT 16 after 23 UTC,:AR 11317(?)produced a minor NOT EARTHBOUND CME heading into NORTH OCT- 17: The flare activity in AR increased after 9:00 UTC and unleashed a minor NOT EARTH DIRECTED CME after 11 UTC: OCT- 18 front side flare activity increased today in two new active region 11321 and might produce the first minor CME since Oct- 08: the second flare ( image Stereo. right ) has its source most likely in AR 11319
NO SATELLITE IMAGES TODAY ( no further significant or Earth directed CMEs were observed until the time of this update)      
  O

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info)

visit solen.info for more informations   EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*   Earthquakes Volcanoes ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
date Solar special reports: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES (CH):   OCT- 17- 2011 magnitudes alert level  

EARTHQUAKE WARNING!

GEOLOGIC HISTORY OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
GEOLOGIC HISTORY OF THE CANARY ISLANDS  

OCT- 16- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
CH 479

DECAYED

  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: 2011- October - 17  

THE EXPECTED EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES after the multiple CME impacts until Oct- 08 set in later than announced or expected . ( read all of this in my report on Oct- 14)

>However. the Earthquake activity will persist for some days more and diminuish afterwards .The Earthquake that shaked Bali on Oct 13 will not be the last for now and was for SURE also not the strongest one!!

I would rather expect at least one stronger Earthquake more until Oct- 20. This is why my alert level remains at yellow to red ( 2-3) until Oct- 20.

probable event regions( Earthquakes):

EUROPE AND AFRICA ( Including ASIA MINOR and ICELAND) - SOUTH AMERICA - NORTHERN AMERICA ( USA) EAST COAST AND CENTRAL

EL HIERRO / Canary Islands/Spain:

In an adreess some days ago the Spanish authorities hadruled out , that the volcano itself would pose an imminent danger. But seawater most likely surges surge into the widely already destroyed surfacial volcano system. The steam produced in touch with the hot magma could build up an high gas pressure, or even form out hydrogen below enough to cause explosions of unknown extends.

The volcano Thera on the island Santorin in Greece was also a shield volcano, possibly also Krakatau/ Indonesia was/ one. Both islands were formerly torn apart by steam/hydrogen explosions in the most destructive and deadliest volcano eruptions known in history...

ABOUT SHIELD VOLCANOES

Differently to Stratovolcanoes ( those form a typical single cone) shield volcanoes are oftenly situated upon socalled hot spots , where the lava produced is very hot and fluid and contains not much gases. A shield volcano might also have only one volcano chimney as well . While shield volcanoes usually dont tend for sudden explosive eruptions their hot thin lava can easily flow into a wider area where it forms an oftently large but almost flat mountain cone with gently rising slopes that has the form of a shieldAfter the first eruption phase, this shield turned to an ever thicker and harder layer upon the main crater and the lave from below cannot penetrate through the original vertical channel anymore. , >>

>> This s is why then ( as observed in El Hierro) the volcano forms out multiple new, but smaller craters most likely along the edge of that shield, where the lava then can penetrate to the surface. Only about 10 % of the 1500 active volcanoes worldwide are shield volcanoes.

At all, the geologic history of the Canaries is - allthough its is very exciting- today still barely explored. Mount Teide is- measured from the ocean floor to its summit with a total height of 3.700 meters after Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea the third largest volcano on Earth and one of the socalled decade volcanoes - a survey program sponsored by the UN to monitor the potential most deadly volcanoes on Earth.

THE CANARY ISLAND`S VOLCANIC History:

I myself lived ( unfortunately only..) around 5 years on the Canaries . I also once made a journey down the Atlantic coast of Marroco , to which the Canary islands one where connected as a peninsula until they broke of at any time in earth history.

This large landslide once formed the Canary Islands as the seven islands they appear today, when the former peninsula broke away from the African continent. I had the idea this event could have been related to the surrender of Atlantis, however it must have been part of those seldom global disasters referred in histories and myth, those as Platon claimed in his Timaios dialogue occure after lomng time periods triggered by any (?) cosmical forces

However - as British geologist say and found out during the first systematical research on the Canaries ever in history during the 90th - they mightby and by slip ( erosion ba the strong sea currents those engulf the ilsnads )further from their plateau in a depth of 3000 meters below sealevel into the 5000 meters depth of the Atlantic. When this will happen is another question. The British gelogists came to that conclusion after they had studied a large fault through the Southern part of the most western island La Palma , where just a part of this islands seems to brake off.

THE CANARIES- A FORMER PENINSULA OF AFRICA:

The plateau of Tenerife`s Teide Stratovolcano around 3000 meters above sealevel is just gigantic and was therefore also used as the background scenery for the film "planet of apes" . Red Lava rocks large as houses give a proof for what size an usual eruption of that volcano must once have had in its short geologic history.

But I have seen on the African side South of Agadir with its black magmatic rocks gives first a real idea which extend volcanism in this special hot spot area there once really had, These volcanic formation must have had dimensions we can`t find anywhere else in Europe than around the former EIfel supervolcanonear Koblenz in the middle of Germany close to the border to Luxemburg. The Eifel volcano last time erupted around 11.500 B.C. This was the same time when that global disaster took place, described in old stories by the Maya the Egypts ( describing the great flood wave that even reached Egypt ) or in Greece mystic allegories. ( war of the TItans, resp uprise of the giants against the Olymp) or by Platon/ Timaios.

If then on or more supervolcanoes have erupted at that time ( known from Eifel volcano, likely also Canaries and Atlantis) then there must have been a general rise in volcanic energy, resp anrise of magma to magma chambers worldwide, possibly heated up by a phase of higher sun- resp CME activity as its seems again to be the case today.- appr 13.000 ( or exactly. 12960?) years later.-

 

When I saw these high black magmatic rocks on the shore South of Agadir my first impression was , what immense volcanic powers once must have built up the scenery there . Maybe the entire peninsula was once something like one (super-) shield volcano? . Regarding the shapes of this coastal rock I came to the conclusion, that- by any event- a larger landmass must have broken away once there- most likely the Canary islands (?) Unfortunately this journey through Marrocco was rather difficult and I had also no camera with me. ( see also my first homepage article "Atlantis" >>

Interesting weblinks to: Canary islands/ volcanism:

Canary islands: Hotspot volcanism close to a passive continental margin

------------

<< due to historical writers the Atlantic was regarded as not shippable for thousands of years. Unknown depths, shallow and wandering sand banks were reportedly waiting there for the sailors,. Large wandering fields of seafaua- believed to be the result of the surrender of Atlantis. made it impossible to cross the Atlantic. Nevertheless there might have been a free way along the African coast to the Canaries likely used by the Vikings and then first time again during Roman times .Already the Roman writer Lucullus describes the Canaries as islands of eternal spring with three harvests per year, favoured by the sea currents with a temperature ideal for the growth of plants.

This was thousands of years after the islands had been forgotten and had been known since then only in Myth , such as "the garden of the 7 Hesperides- the doughters of Atlas, where apples grow that promised eternal youth". If Atlas was not only a godly son of Poseidon ( the sea) but already the name of the African mountain at this time the story could be a relict of any old description related to that time when the island broke of from the main land describing and xtreme event not more or less credible than today.

This could have happened either , when the empty magma chamber of a prior large super shield volcano that had once created and embraced the entire archipeleago ( with Tenerife likely in its center) collapsed by a gigantic earthquake (possible related to the surrender of Atlantis which was due to Platon rather northwestern of the Canaries) or by itself

The collapse of tha magma chamber with the result of a brake off and sinking of that former peninsula could also have been a long time event, caused by the immense weight of sediments brought along by both the North Atlantic and South Atlantic sea currents.

What is meanhwile sure is, that the islands were more than once strucked by a gigantic Tsunami ( if now caused by that gigantic explosion of atlantis which was also a volcanic island or not ) that most likely hit the islands first coming from the Northwest after it swept over Africa and hit the island again when it retreated. A massive rock , the missing part of the random rocks on the 3000 meter high Teide Caldera was found however so far away from the island , that only the unusual force of such a single extreme event could have transported it so far.

 

 

  158 flare class > C M X GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY:   QUIET 6.0- > 7.5 2- 3
 

SOLAR FLUX:

tital flares > 05 -- -- 45- 110 nT   UNSETTLED 2011- October - 18
  151 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (solen.info): 437 km/s. X RAY
BACKGROUND FLUX
>>
B 8.6

EARTH FACING ON >

      MINOR STORM 6.0- > 7.0 2- 3  
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

no Earth directed CMEs were observed since Oct- 08

  MAJOR STORM 2011- October - 19  
 

07

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latidude: EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: CME ARRIVALS: 6.0- > 7.0 2
  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
  11312 82° - 96° W 32° N                 IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES  
11313 81° - 95° W 14° S                
11314 27° - 41° W 27° N                
11315 74°- 88° W 20° N                
active regions an CH map- OCT_ 16- 2011 by:solen.info 11316 11° - 25° W 12° S                     EL HIERRO / Canary Islands/Spain:
  11317 2°E - 12° W 26° S Oct- 17                  

Until Oct 13, 600 persons had been evacuated from the coastal region of El Restringa in the South of the island of El Hierro to a football stadium.

In its last bulletin, the cabildo de Hierro now permitted residents of El Restringa to return back home. At least for now or for that time, while the activity on the edges of the shield volcano is expected to remain low.

  11318 61°- 75°W 21° N                    
  11319 11° - 25° W 10° N                    
  11320 79°- 93°W 21°S                    
  11321 45°- 32°E 45°N OCT- 19 critical                
CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs > none CME arrival notices >

 

NOAA/ Top News of the Day: OCT- 17- 2011
active regions rotating out of view today> 11320 79°- 93°W 21°S        
  11313 81° - 95° W 14° S        
active regions rotating out of view today> 11312 82° - 96° W 32° N geomagnetic storms: currently none solar radiation storms: none
NO SATELLITE IMAGES TODAY ( no further significant or Earth directed CMEs were observed until the time of this update)         changes: the project:" possible permanent active regions and coronal holes": has a seperate page now! click here
  O

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info)

visit solen.info for more informations   EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*   Earthquakes Volcanoes ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
date Solar special reports: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES (CH):   OCT- 16- 2011 magnitudes alert level  

EARTHQUAKE WARNING!

EL HIERRO / Canary Islands/Spain

      VOLCANOES TODAY:

OCT- 15- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
CH 479

DECAYING -

RECURRENT

  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: 2011- October - 16  

THE EXPECTED EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES after the multiple CME impacts until Oct- 08 set in later than announced or expected . ( read all of this in my report on Oct- 14)

>However. the Earthquake activity will persist for some days more and diminuish afterwards .The Earthquake that shaked Bali on Oct 13 will not be the last for now and was for SURE also not the strongest one!!

probable event regions( Earthquakes):

EUROPE AND AFRICA ( Including ASIA MINOR and ICELAND) - SOUTH AMERICA - NORTHERN AMERICA ( USA) EAST COAST AND CENTRAL

 

 

Until Oct 13, 600 persons had been evacuated form the coastal region of El Restringa in the South of the island of El Hierro. No more flights permitted above the affected southern region

Spots of green emissions (as on the image right side) from the submarine activity that had began after Oct 13 5 km offshore the South coats of El Hierro are the only visible evidence right now. s-bochum.de reports that those spots grew rapidly in numbers during the last days.

first minor eruption on HEKLA /ICELAND?

All recent quakes around Iceland occured along the geological fault ( opening) between the North American and the Eurasian plate that leads through the capital and indicates again an increased tectonic movements observed since 2010.

Media however don`t get tired to report about a coming eruption, of the volcano KATLA, that also lies on the fault described above.

At least minor steam and ash eruptions must have occured yesterday as webcam images suggest. Differently to other regions on iceland with clear view today , the sight around HEKLA is very milky

  166 flare class > C M X GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY: possible low speed sun wind streams QUIET 6.0- > 7.5 2- 3
 

SOLAR FLUX:

tital flares > 10 C -- -- 60- 123 nT dropping temperatures UNSETTLED 2011- October - 17
  138 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (solen.info): 340 - 680 km/s. X RAY
BACKGROUND FLUX
>>
B 4.5

EARTH FACING ON >

      MINOR STORM 6.0- > 7.5 2- 3  
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

no Earth directed CMEs were observed since Oct- 08

  MAJOR STORM 2011- October - 18  
 

05

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latidude: EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: CME ARRIVALS: 6.0- > 7.0 2- 3
  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light): LATEST HURRICANE REPORTS:
  11312 68° - 82° W 32° N                 IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES   Find daily reports on hurricanes at globaldisasterwatch or: visit NOAA Hurricane warning center for latest informations
11313 67° - 81° W 14° S                

JUST A MINOR ERUPTION?

The multiple eruptions ( rather very typical for a shield volcano) occure most likely along a new brakeoff on the seaground on the edge of the Canaries basement to the African continental plate. The frist eruption was 5 km offshore in estimated 1000- 2000 meters depth. On Oct 14, bochum.de reports a new eruption in just 2 km distance form the shore and in just 150 meters depth.

A ship with remote operated vehicles on board ( rov) that normally installs submarine telecommunication cables has been deployed to examine and film the submarine activities form nearby on the seaground on the next days.

The activity there might have much to do with current movements of the Southern part of the African plate ( driven by its restistence against the earth rotation) into /South( Western direction . This tectonic movement has dramatically increased since 2005 forming a new, more than 6000 km long fault beginning at Arfur/ Etiopia) that grows meanhwile some meters per year ( some millimeters prior ro 2005) The African plate therefor collides with the Northern atlantic/ Eurasian one, what not only causes these activities there but was also reponsible for the strange and seldom M 5.6 quake around Washington in September 2011.

 

 

^^ first surface images ( by:ts-bochum.de of the submarine eruption appr 5 km offshore the Southern Coast of El Hierro/ Canary islands/Spain (20111014)  
11314 13° - 27° W 27° N                  
11315 60°- 74° W 20° N                

SUN ACTIVITIES:

(Oct- 15) The X ray background level was rather high at B 4.5. This high value rise was caused by the major background activities and CME eruptions on Oct- 13.

^ current sun spots and active regions ^ by: NASA (SDO/HMI) 11316 3°E - 11° W 12° S OCT- 16                  

  11317 16° - 02° E 26° S Oct- 17                  
  11318 47°- 61°W 21° N                    
  11319 3°E - 11° W 10° N Oct- 15                  
  11320 65°- 79°W 21°S                    
newly emerged with large sun spot 11321 60°- 45°E 45°N OCT- 19 critical                
CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs > none CME arrival notices >

 

NOAA/ Top News of the Day: OCT- 16 2011
active regions rotating out of view today>       geomagnetic storms: currently none solar radiation storms: none (OCT- 15) The only interesting event was ( image left) the ejection of that minor Solar " fireball" after 9:00 UTC (OCT- 16) no data are available for STEREO on OCT- 16. TH last image on SEP 15 / 23: 45 UTC shows flare activity in AR 11320 or 11322 and ? that continued still on OCT 17>
NO SATELLITE IMAGES TODAY ( no further significant or Earth directed CMEs were observed until the time of this update)         changes: the project:" possible permanent active regions and coronal holes": has a seperate page now! click here
  O

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info)

visit solen.info for more informations   EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*   Earthquakes Volcanoes ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
date Solar special reports: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES (CH):   OCT- 15- 2011 magnitudes alert level  

EARTHQUAKE WARNING!

EARTHQUAKES ABOVE 6.0 TODAY:   HURRICANES:

OCT- 14- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
CH 479

DECAYING -

RECURRENT

  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: 2011- October - 15  

THE EXPECTED EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES after the multiple CME impacts until Oct- 08 set in later than announced or expected . ( read all of this in my yesterday`s report

>>However. the Earthquake activity will persist for some days more and diminuish afterwards .The Earthquake that shaked Balis on Oct-13 , will not be the last for now and was for SURE also not the strongest one!!

probable event regions( Earthquakes):

EUROPE AND AFRICA ( Including ASIA MINOR and ICELAND) - SOUTH AMERICA - NORTHERN AMERICA ( USA) EAST COAST AND CENTRAL

 

 

none

VOLCANOES TODAY:

 

two minor quakes were registered today in Iceland near to Rejkjavik:

M 3.8 - ICELAND - 2011-10-15 09:46 UTC

M 3.8 - ICELAND - 2011-10-15 09:03 UTC. The quakes are believed to announce a eruption of nearby KATLA volcano

Volcano HEKLA in the South of icleand obviously is the more active one yet. An eruption is overdue on both - so volcanologists say . A major eruption of Katla or Hekla however would cause a major disaster than the EYJAFJALLAJOKULL eruption last year. You can watch any ongoing event live on the Iceland / Hekla volcano webcam/ Katla volcano webcam

click here for my internal volcano map of Iceland.

Click here and your google Earth program will find Hekla for you automatically. click here for KATLA

 

BBC.com: (including videos)

Bangkok floods: Thai capital fights to hold back waters

Cambodia floods kill over 200 people since September

Floods and landslides leave 40 dead in Central America

  157   GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY: possible low speed sun wind streams QUIET 6.0- > 7.5 2- 3
 

SOLAR FLUX:

  75- 120 nT dropping temperatures UNSETTLED 2011- October - 16
  136 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (solen.info): 334 - 407 km/s.

EARTH FACING ON >

      MINOR STORM 6.0- > 7.5 2- 3  
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

no Earth directed CMEs were observed since Oct- 08

  MAJOR STORM 2011- October - 17    
 

02

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latidude: EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: CME ARRIVALS: 6.0- > 7.5 2- 3

(BBC) New Zealand oil spill threatens ecological catastrophe ( video)

LATEST HURRICANE REPORTS:

Find daily reports on hurricanes at globaldisasterwatch or: visit NOAA Hurricane warning center for latest informations

 

  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
  11309 86 ° -100° W 23°N                 IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES  
  11312 54° - 68° W 32° N                  
  11313 53° - 67° W 14° S                
  11314 9°E - 13° W 27° N OCT- 15              

SUN ACTIVITIES YESTERDAY:

  11315 44°- 60° W 20° N                     .

  11316 17° - 03° E 12° S OCT- 16                  
  11317 30° - 16° E 26° S Oct- 17                  
  11318 33°- 47°W 21° N                    
  11319 17° - 03° E 10° N Oct- 15                  
new 11320 51°- 65°W 21°S newly emerged                
CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs > none CME arrival notices >

 

NOAA/ Top News of the Day: OCT- 14 2011 ^^ (Oct- 14) an intense backside activity began today- Oct- 14 2011 after 9:50 UTC and unleashed soon after a large CME into Eastern direction, appr. directed into Scorpius or again sagittarius . (right image)SoHo after 10.00 UTC ^another lare associated witha small CME was observed on OCT- 14 in AR heading into Southwest direction
active regions rotating out of view today> 11309 86 ° -100° W 23°N geomagnetic storms: currently none solar radiation storms: none
NO SATELLITE IMAGES TODAY ( no further significant or Earth directed CMEs were observed until the time of this update)         changes: the project:" possible permanent active regions and coronal holes": has a seperate page now! click here
  O

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info)

visit solen.info for more informations   EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*   Earthquakes Volcanoes ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
date Solar special reports: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES (CH):   OCT- 14- 2011 magnitudes alert level  

EARTHQUAKE WARNING!

EARTHQUAKE WARNING!

      HURRICANES:

OCT- 13- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
CH 479

DECAYING -

RECURRENT

  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: 2011- October - 14  

THE EXPECTED EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES after the multiple CME impacts until Oct- 08 set in later than announced or expected .

The CME impacts had been accomponied by significant volcanic activities ( those will be now also listed up regularly in this report . This is mostly not possible in real time, but has to be done after when publications of local volcano surveys or the weekly activity report by USGS is published).

The relative long time the heated and therefore soft Earth crust needed this time to cool down and contract to that point that friction will start and seismic waves can be measured should not wonder, as these CMEs had loaded up the Earth with an unknown but immense amount of energy. I will find a way to take that in account in my reports..

I am not glad about disastrous Earthquakes , but at least about theb fact that also thise time my theory has provved to be true, what will cobntribute to a better Earthquake prediction as well! >>

 

>>However. the Earthquake activity will persist for some days more and diminuish afterwards .The Earthquake that shaked Balis on Oct- 13 will not be the lastfor now and was for SURE also not the strongest one!!

probable event regions( Earthquakes):

EUROPE AND AFRICA ( Including ASIA MINOR and ICELAND) - SOUTH AMERICA - NORTHERN AMERICA ( USA) EAST COAST AND CENTRAL
   

(BBC- Oct- 14- 2011) video source: Mexican coast battles floods in wake of Hurricane Jova



  147   GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY: possible low speed sun wind streams QUIET 6.0- > 7.5 3
 

SOLAR FLUX:

  55- 112 nT     UNSETTLED 2011- October - 15
  137 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (solen.info): 332 - 370 km/s.

EARTH FACING ON >

      MINOR STORM 6.0- > 7.5 2- 3  
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

no Earth directed CMEs were observed since Oct- 08

  MAJOR STORM 2011- October - 16    
 

05

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latidude: EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: CME ARRIVALS: 6.0- > 7.5 2- 3 globaldisasterwatch- Oct-14:-

-Tropical storm Irwin was located about 150 mi. (245 km) W of Manzanillo, Mexico. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effec
-Tropical storm Banyan was located approximately 355 nm SSE of Hong Kong, China.
  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):

VOLCANOES TODAY:

 

  11309 76 ° -90° W 23°N                 IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES  

EL Hierro/ Canary islands / Spain- Oct- 12- 2011

  11312 42° - 56° W 32° N                 The measurable seismic activity around the volcano has further decreased during the past two days. Only one quake was measured yesterday by EMSC that exceeded M 2.0

LATEST HURRICANE REPORTS:

Find daily reports on hurricanes at globaldisasterwatch or: visit NOAA Hurricane warning center for latest informations

  11313 37° - 51° W 14° S                
  11314 22° - 08° E 27° N OCT- 15               (usa.today)Iceland's Katla volcano is getting restless  
  11315 32°- 46° W 20° N new                  

EARTHQUAKES ABOVE 6.0 TODAY:

<< (Oct- 13)the two images above show a backside event, that occured today early after 4:00 C- as it seems, in two active regions at the same time . On SoHo the CME of this event creates a full halo,. But Stereo shows clearly, the large eruption caused only a minimal coactivoty on the Earth facing side of the Sun.

No Earth directed event, flare or CME was observed since Oct- 08 on SoHO or STEREO imagery

  11316 30° - 16° E 12° S OCT- 16 critical                

M 6.7 - EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G. - 2011-10-14 03:35 UTC

M 6.0 - AMURSKAYA OBLAST', RUSSIA - 2011-10-14 06:10 UTC

  11317 42° - 28° E 26° S Oct- 17                  
new 11318 18°- 32°W 21° N                    
new 11319 29° - 15° E 10° N Oct- 15                
CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs > none CME arrival notices >

 

NOAA/ Top News of the Day: OCT- 14 2011
active regions rotating out of view today> 11309 76 ° -90° W 23°N geomagnetic storms: currently none solar radiation storms: none        
NO SATELLITE IMAGES TODAY ( no further significant or Earth directed CMEs were observed until the time of this update)         changes: the project:" possible permanent active regions and coronal holes": has a seperate page now! click here
                                                       

 

( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( (
  O

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info)

visit solen.info for more informations   EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*   Earthquakes Volcanoes ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
date Solar special reports: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES (CH):   OCT- 12- 2011 magnitudes alert level  

EARTHQUAKE WARNING!

EL Hierro/ Canary islands / Spain- Oct- 12- 2011

      HURRICANES:

OCT- 12- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
CH 479 DEVELOPING   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY:

latent earthquake tendency! exact event date is currently not predictable!

2011- October - 13

 

While global volcanism would decrease by now,Earth quake activity will rise. The probability of one or more expectable strong or even extreme Sea or Earthquake will increase about for one week after Oct-08 , when the last CME impacted. Magnitudes could achieve levels above M 8.0, capable to cause a significant and disastrous Tsunami. >>

MOST LIKELY EARTHQUAKE LOCATIONS:

Referring to the main impact regions of the last CMEs, the plates , resp boundaries westwards and eastwards of the Atlantic will be the areas with the highest probability for Earthquake events on the next days>>>

probable event regions( Earthquakes)

EUROPE AND AFRICA ( Including ASIA MINOR and ICELAND)

- SOUTH AMERICA

- NORTHERN AMERICA ( USA) EAST COAST AND CENTRAL

SPANISH AUTHORITIES RAISE WARNING LEVEL FOR EL HIERRO TO RED ( 1 of 4)

The local administration of El Hierro has yesterday raised the alert level from yellow to red ( phase 1 of 4) for La Restinga on the southwestern Coast of the island, ( read report yesterday)

   

(Reuthers- Oct- 13-2011 ) UPDATE 8-Hurricane Jova hits key Mexican port, kills four

Hurricane Jove caused severe floddings and landslides in Mexico

 

(BBC- Oct- 12-2011) Hurricane Jova hits Mexico's Pacific coast

  149   GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY: CH 478 DECAYING QUIET 6.0- > 7.5 2- 3
 

SOLAR FLUX:

  47- 115 nT     UNSETTLED 2011- October - 14
  134 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (solen.info): 304 - 372 km/s.

EARTH FACING ON >

CH 479 OCT- 13   MINOR STORM 6.0- > 7.5 2- 3  
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

no Earth directed CMEs were observed since Oct- 08

  MAJOR STORM 2011- October - 15  

(BBC- Oct- 13-2011)- Bali earthquake: 'Fifty hurt' as powerful tremor strikes

further informations tomorrow!

 
 

06

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latidude: EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

MAJOR FLARES- CLASS* SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: CME ARRIVALS: 6.0- > 7.5 2- 3

Tropical storm “Ramon” [Banyan] claimed its first fatality
  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):

( der spiegel.de) Tokyo/ Fukushima Japan.

High values of radiactivity were found on some places in the capital Tokyo and elsewhere. On Thursday, 3,35 Microsievert were measured on a garden wall in the suburb Setegaya. The nuclear safety commission however denies any relation of the radioactive particles to the havarised reactors in Fukushima and says the radioactive material came " out of a bottle found nearby(?) " Recently also in Yokohama- 250 km away from Fukushima high values of Strontium 90 had been discovered on a rooftop..

  11309 62° -76° W 23°N OCT-07               IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES/ VOLCANO ERUPTIONS:  
  11312 28° - 42° W 32° N                

LATEST HURRICANE REPORTS:

Find daily reports on hurricanes at globaldisasterwatch or: visit NOAA Hurricane warning center for latest informations

  11313 25° - 39° W 14° S                
  11314 35° - 21° E 27° N new              

SUN longitudes with CORONAL HOLES during previous rotation periods. ( internal number: Object 4)

this comparition projects is now on a seperate page! > click here

  11315 17°- 31° W 20° N new                  

  11316 45° - 31° E 12° S new- OCT- 16 critical                
  11317 55° - 41° E 26° S Oct- 17                  
new 11318 03°- 17°W 21° N                    
new 11319 43° - 29° E 10° N Oct- 15                

EARTHQUAKES ABOVE 6.0 today:

CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs > none CME arrival notices >

 

NOAA/ Top News of the Day: OCT- 13- 2011 M 6.1 - SOUTH OF BALI, INDONESIA - 2011-10-13 03:16 UTC
active regions rotating out of view today> 11311 91° - 104° W 12° S geomagnetic storms: currently none solar radiation storms: none CH 479 on 20111013 unnumbered CH 20110915 CH 472 20110819 unnumbered 20110723
NO SATELLITE IMAGES TODAY ( no further significant or Earth directed CMEs were observed until the time of this update)       GOEShp 3 days data plot: OCT 11 -13- 2011 changes: the project:" possible permanent active regions and coronal holes": has a seperate page now! click here
  O

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info)

visit solen.info for more informations   EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*       ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
date Solar special reports: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES (CH):   OCT- 12- 2011 magnitudes alert level  

EARTHQUAKE WARNING!

EL Hierro/ Canary islands / Spain- Oct- 12- 2011

       

OCT- 11- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
CH 479 DEVELOPING   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY:

latent earthquake tendency! exact event date is currently not predictable!

2011- October - 12

 

While global volcanism would decrease by now,Earth quake activity will rise. The probability of one or more expectable strong or even extreme Sea or Earthquake will increase about for one week after Oct-08 , when the last CME impacted. Magnitudes could achieve levels above M 8.0, capable to cause a significant and disastrous Tsunami. >>

MOST LIKELY EARTHQUAKE LOCATIONS:

Referring to the main impact regions of the last CMEs, the plates , resp boundaries westwards and eastwards of the Atlantic will be the areas with the highest probability for Earthquake events on the next days>>>

probable event regions( Earthquakes)

EUROPE AND AFRICA ( Including ASIA MINOR and ICELAND)

- SOUTH AMERICA

- NORTHERN AMERICA ( USA) EAST COAST AND CENTRAL

SPANISH AUTHORITIES RAISE WARNING LEVEL FOR EL HIERRO TO RED ( 1 of 4)

The local administration of El Hierro has today raised the alert level from yellow to red ( phase 1 of 4) and to maximum alert for the southwestern Coast of the island, near to the epicenter of the 4.3 quake on Oct- 08 in a depth of 12 km, the largest quake measured since July.

The cabildo de El Hierro declared there is a special danger of explosions ( steam, hydrogen SH2)out of the "interaction of magma and water". In other words: water surges into the volcano system. Vibration were felt on the surface around the region La Restinga on the southwest coast of the island , which is also closest to the submarine eruption that was observed after Oct 10) report: see column right side) >>

Phase 1 of 4 means: residents should be prepared for an evacuation, Inhabitants near to La Restinga were evacuated to a football stadium.I had asked them in an email one week ago,what is about these clouds of steam visible on the webcam from time to time rising from what are likely craters. But I got no answer yet nor an confirmation of receipt

recent quakes around El Hierro ( soure: ign.es)

  113   GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY: CH 478 DECAYING QUIET 6.0- > 7.5 2- 3
 

SOLAR FLUX:

  75- 140 nT     UNSETTLED 2011- October - 13
  130 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (solen.info): 304 - 372 km/s.

EARTH FACING ON >

CH 479 OCT- 13   MINOR STORM 6.0- > 7.5 2- 3  
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

no Earth directed CMEs were observed since Oct- 08

  MAJOR STORM 2011- October - 14  
 

04

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latidude: EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

MAJOR FLARES- CLASS* SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: CME ARRIVALS: 6.0- > 7.5 2- 3
  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):

.> El Hierro> MAGMA AND WATER

. . A special kind of trees on the CANARIES is known to condensate passat winds and to supply the islands with water. But most likely (as also on other volcanic islands such as Crete in Greece) , also the volcanism seems to produce there fountains out of seawater surging into the system where it heats up to steam. On the other side that phenomenon can create a great danger, if pressure builts up

  11309 49° -63° W 23°N OCT-07               IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES/ VOLCANO ERUPTIONS:  
  11311 77° - 91° W 12° S                

LATEST HURRICANE REPORTS:

Find daily reports on hurricanes at globaldisasterwatch or: visit NOAA Hurricane warning center for latest informations

  11312 15° - 29° W 32° N                
  11313 12° - 26° W 14° S                 Possibly related to the submarine eruptions the magmatic quakes has further decreased Only one quake above 2.0 was with M 2.7 registered by EMSC yesterday .The Spanish government has deployed already end of September a special army units to observe the volcano, maintain telecommunication ( if seacables should be damaged) and work out an evacuation plan in case of emergency..

( Oct- 12-2011) Subsea Volcanic Eruption Underway Near El Hierro (The Canary Islands):

A submarine volcanic eruption is taking place approximately 5 kilometres off the southern coast of El Hierro, the smallest of The Canary Islands.

(The eruption most likely occurs from a peak formation on the seafloor- likely a new submarine volcano crater- which can be found on Google Earth - click here and your Google Earth program will open and automatically navigate to El Hierro) The Mayor of La Frontera (El Hierro), David Cabrera, confirmed in an interview on Radio iron Garoé that ‘underwater eruption’ is taking place about 900 metres beneath the sea surface five kilometres south of La Restinga. The eruption has been ongoing for four hours, the Mayor said. ...read more... laopionion.es ( Spanish online- newspaper) ign.es( Insituto geographico nacional/Spain)

  11314 48° - 35° E 27° N new                  

  11315 05°- 19° W 20° N new                  
11316 57° - 43° E 12° S new- OCT- 16 critical                
  11317 68° - 54° E 26° S new- Oct- 17                
CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs > none CME arrival notices >

 

NOAA/ Top News of the Day: OCT- 12- 2011
active regions rotating out of view today> 11311 77° - 91° W 12° S geomagnetic storms: currently none solar radiation storms: none
NO SATELLITE IMAGES TODAY ( no further significant or Earth directed CMEs were observed until the time of this update)     read also:globaldisasterwatch GOEShp 3 days data plot: OCT 09 -11- 2011 Observation of possible permanent active regions and coronal holes:
  O

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info)

visit solen.info for more informations   EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*       ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
date Solar special reports: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES (CH):   OCT- 11- 2011 magnitudes alert level  

EARTHQUAKE WARNING!

EL Hierro/ Canary islands / Spain- Oct- 10- 2011:

      EL Hierro/ Canary islands / Spain- Oct- 10- 2011:

OCT- 10- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
CH 479 DEVELOPING   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: 2011- October - 11  

While global volcanism would decrease by now,Earth quake activity will rise for about one week The probability of one or more expectable strong or even extreme Sea or Earthquake will increase about for one week after Oct-08 , when the last CME impacted. Magnitudes could achieve levels above M 8.0, capable to cause a significant and disastrous Tsunami. >>

MOST LIKELY EARTHQUAKE LOCATIONS:

Referring to the main impact regions of the last CMEs, the plates , resp boundaries westwards and eastwards of the Atlantic will be the areas with the highest probability for Earthquake events on the next days>>>

probable event regions( Earthquakes)

EUROPE AND AFRICA ( Including ASIA MINOR and ICELAND)

- SOUTH AMERICA

- NORTHERN AMERICA ( USA) EAST COAST AND CENTRAL

On August- 08 , the magmatic quakes had with M 4.3 reached the highest magnitude since the activity began in July 2011.

M 4.3 - CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION - 2011-10-08 20:34 UTC.

The quake occured near to the South East coast and was with a depth of 12 km very deep. THis quake occured on the island itself , close to the steep cliff remainent from where most of the earliest and largest crater once broke off and sank into the sea

>>>

,,, continued...This circumstance only could make that volcano more dangerous as it seems,. If water can surge into the volcanic systems and the heat builds up steam with high pressure below an larger explosion could follow more severe than the volcano itself could produce.

The total number of magmatic quakes near the island of El Hierro has decreased over the last days . Only 2 quakes were listed by ESCS with a magnitude higher than 2.0 yesterday.

On Oct- 10 the cabildo el Hierro also has published a new bulletin. Changes in the seimic activity would generally indicate the possibility of an eruption . A submarine had discovered submarine gas emissions ( Co2) close on the Southern coast close to the island. The gases and fluids are typically, but there can`t be any certainty about right now. so the cabildo.

. Helicopters those flew over the land bound craters of the shield volcano, reported also gas emssions but sighted no fluid voclanic material on the surface.

The Island`s administration says there is no imminent danger but affirmed the yellow alert level for the Volcano. ( Watch advisory) Inhabitants should be stay informed and be ready for a possible evacuation

  87   GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY: CH 478 DECAYING QUIET 6.0- >8.0 3
 

SOLAR FLUX:

  55- 125 nT     UNSETTLED 2011- October - 12
  126 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (solen.info): 307 - 352 km/s.

EARTH FACING ON >

CH 479 OCT- 13   MINOR STORM 6.0- 7.5 2- 3  
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

no Earth directed CMEs were observed since Oct- 08

  MAJOR STORM 2011- October - 13  
 

03

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latidude: EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

MAJOR FLARES- CLASS* SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: CME ARRIVALS: 6.0- 7.0 2- 3
  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
  11309 36° -50° W 23°N OCT-07               IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES/ VOLCANO ERUPTIONS:  
  11311 63° - 77° W 12° S                

VOLCANOES TODAY:

LATEST HURRICANE REPORTS:

READ ABOUT on globaldisasterwatch or: visit NOAA Hurricane warning center for latest informations

 

  11312 02° - 16° W 32° N                

SANGUAY( Ecuador) set on red alert level

Based on information from the Guayaquil MWO and a pilot observation, the Washington VAAC reported that on 11 October an ash plume from Sangay from a possible eruption rose to an altitude of 6.7 km (22,000 ft) a.s.l. and drifted W. Ash was not observed in satellite imagery.
  11313 08°E-12° W 14° S                 Oct- 11- 2011: Hurricane " Jova" expected to make landfall this afternoon ( UTC- time): Estimated wind speed: up to 200 km/ h. Hurricane " Jova" is swiftly followed by Hurricane " Irwin"
                          MARAPI/ Sumatra was set on yellow alert on Oct- 11  
CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs > none CME arrival notices >

 

NOAA/ Top News of the Day: OCT- 11- 2011 after an ash plume from Marapi rose to an altitude of 3.7 km (12,000 ft) a.s.l.  
active regions rotating out of view today>       geomagnetic storms: currently none solar radiation storms: none  
NO SATELLITE IMAGES TODAY ( no further significant or Earth directed CMEs were observed until the time of this update)     read also:globaldisasterwatch   Observation of possible permanent active regions and coronal holes:
  O

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info)

visit solen.info for more informations   EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*       ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
date Solar special reports: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES (CH):   OCT- 10- 2011 magnitudes alert level  

EARTHQUAKE WARNING!

 

     

Diverse:

OCT- 09- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
CH 479 DEVELOPING   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: 2011- October - 10  

No further CME was observed since Oct- 06 and 08. After this last impact tectonic plates seem now definitely have time to cool below that temperature , where they would create seismic waves and friction while they contract .

ESTIMATED EARTHQUAKE EVENTS:

While global volcanism would decrease by now,Earth quake activity will rise for about one week The probability of one or more expectable strong or even extreme Sea or Earthquake will increase about for one week after Oct-08 , when the last CME impacted. Magnitudes could achieve levels above M 8.0, capable to cause a significant and disastrous Tsunami. >>

 

...EARTHQUAKE WARNING!

MOST LIKELY EARTHQUAKE LOCATIONS:

Referring to the main impact regions of the last CMEs, the plates , resp boundaries westwards and eastwards of the Atlantic will be the areas with the highest probability for Earthquake events on the next days >>>

 

probable event regions( Earthquakes)

EUROPE AND AFRICA ( Including ASIA MINOR and ICELAND)

- SOUTH AMERICA

- NORTHERN AMERICA ( USA) EAST COAST AND CENTRAL

youtubevideo: Mega Tsunami Canary Islands to Eastern US

Massive Japanese earthquake altered Earth's gravity

The devastating earthquake that struck Japan earlier this year was powerful enough to slightly alter the pull of gravity under the affected area, scientists have found. ...

...The researchers found the Tohoku-Oki quake reduced the gravity field there by an average of two- millionths of a gal by slightly thinning the Earth's crust. In comparison, the strength of the gravitational pull at the Earth's surface is, on average, 980 gals. (The gal, short for Galileo, is a unit of acceleration; one gal is defined as one centimeter per second squared.) ...read more...

  71   GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY: CH 478 DECAYING QUIET 6.0- > 7.5 2- 3
 

SOLAR FLUX:

  35- 120 nT     UNSETTLED 2011- October - 11
  121 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (solen.info): 304 - 358 km/s.

EARTH FACING ON >

CH 479 OCT- 13   MINOR STORM 6.0- >8.0 3  
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

no Earth directed CMEs were observed since Oct- 08

  MAJOR STORM 2011- October - 12  
 

13

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latidude: EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

MAJOR FLARES- CLASS* SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: CME ARRIVALS: 6.0- 7.0 2- 3
  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
  11308 40°- 54° W 25° S has reemerged               IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES/ VOLCANO ERUPTIONS:  

WWW- FINDINGS:

NEW INTEGRATED TSUNAMI WATCHER SERVICE

Ar 11309 has a large sun spot 11309 23° -37° W 23°N OCT-07              
  11310 65° - 79 ° W 33°S OCT-04              

LATEST HURRICANE REPORTS:

READ ABOUT on globaldisasterwatch or: visit NOAA Hurricane warning center for latest informations

 

  11311 49° - 63° W 12° S                
  11312 10°E - 4° W 32° N                

El Hierro/ Islas Canarias- Spain

9 minor quakes were registered on OCT- 08 near to the island of El Hierro / Canary Islands/ Spain by EMSC. Definiteley at least the seismic/ magmatic activity seems to decrease again by now . Highest magnitude:

VOLCANOES TODAY:
  11313 15° E- 01° E 14° S                  

GAUA (Banks Islands) set on red alert ( 1 of 4)

LOKON-EMPUNG ( Sulawesi islands) was set on yellow alert on Oct- 11:

CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs > none CME arrival notices >

 

NOAA/ Top News of the Day: OCT- 10- 2011 Gas plumes were detected on GAUA by the OMI satellite on 17, 27, and 28 September, and ashfall was reported in the N, E, and W parts of Gaua on 10 October by local authorities. CVGHM reported that on 10 October white and gray plumes rose 100-300 m above Tompaluan crater, in the saddle between the Lokon-Empung peaks
active regions rotating out of view today>       geomagnetic storms: currently none solar radiation storms: none
NO SATELLITE IMAGES TODAY ( no further significant or Earth directed CMEs were observed until the time of this update)     read also:globaldisasterwatch   Observation of possible permanent active regions and coronal holes:
  O

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info)

visit solen.info for more informations   EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*       ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
date Solar special reports: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES (CH):   OCT- 09- 2011 magnitudes alert level  

EARTHQUAKE WARNING!

SPECIAL ACTIVITY REPORT:

     

VOLCANO NEWS- OCT- 09-2011:

OCT- 08- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
CH 479 DEVELOPING   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: 2011- October - 09  

No further CME was observed since Oct- 06 and 08. After this last impact tectonic plates seem now definitely have time to cool below that temperature , where they would create seismic waves and friction while they contract .

ESTIMATED EARTHQUAKE EVENTS:

While global volcanism would decrease by now,Earth quake activity will rise for about one week. The probability of one or more expectable strong or even extreme Sea or Earthquake will increase about for one week after Oct-08 , when the last CME impacted. Magnitudes could achieve levels above M 8.0, capable to cause a significant and disastrous Tsunami.

MOST LIKELY EARTHQUAKE LOCATIONS:

Referring to the main impact regions of the last CMEs, the plates , resp boundaries westwards and eastwards of the Atlantic will be the areas with the highest probability for Earthquake events on the next days :

EUROPE AND AFRICA ( Including ASIA MINOR and ICELAND) - SOUTH AMERICA - NORTHERN AMERICA ( USA) EAST COAST AND CENTRAL

El Hierro/ Islas Canarias- Spain

9 minor quakes were registered on OCT- 08 near to the island of El Hierro / Canary Islands/ Spain by EMSC. Definiteley at least the seismic/ magmatic activity seems to decrease again by now . Highest magnitude:

M 4.3 - CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION - 2011-10-08 20:34 UTC

media reports:

El Hierro (The Canary Islands) Earthquake Count Nears 10,000

The IGN also confirmed surface deformations exceeding 35mm on the 280-sqkm island, where residents have been put on alert for a possible volcanic eruption.

The agency confirmed on Friday that 858 earthquakes, most of them located in the sea to the SW of the island, have been recorded in the 7 days since 30 September, 2011.  During this period, 60 earthquakes were felt by the island’s estimated 10,000 residents. The strongest of the tremors measured 3.8 magnitude on the Richter Scale. ..read more..

Valley del Golfo/ El Hierro/ Canary Islands/ Spain LIVE WEBCAM image

Oct- 08: Mt. ETNA again on red alert level. WILL AIRPORT BE CLOSED SOON?

after being degraded by the USGS to yellow alert in their latest report issued on Oct- 04 , the activity at Mount ETNA increased again on OCT- 08:

(AGI) Catania- The crisis unit is meeting to decide whether Catania airport should stay open following Etna's latest eruption. The Italian National Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology reports that as of 10 am, there has been Strombolian activity in the south-east crater; the activity was initially weak but grew in intensity as the hours went by. At 3,000 meters, lava flow is abundant and a huge ash plume can be seen, heading south.. ...read more...

  61   GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY: CH 478 DECAYING QUIET 6.0- > 7.5 2- 3
 

SOLAR FLUX:

  60- 155 nT     UNSETTLED 2011- October - 10
  118 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (solen.info): 303 - 344 km/s.

EARTH FACING ON >

CH 479 OCT- 13   MINOR STORM 6.0- > 7.5 2- 3  
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

no Earth directed CMEs were observed since Oct- 08

  MAJOR STORM 2011- October - 11  
 

07

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latidude: EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

MAJOR FLARES- CLASS* SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: CME ARRIVALS: 6.0- >8.0 3
  TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
  11306 89°- 104° W 13° N                 IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES/ VOLCANO ERUPTIONS:  

Oct- 08: CLEVELAND VOLCANO ( ALEUTIANS) again on red alert level.

Same with Cleveland: after being degraded by the USGS to yellow alert in their latest report issued on Oct- 04 , the activity at Mount CLEVELAND increased again on OCT- 08:

(Washington Post- OCT-08-2011Volcano monitors say if the dome continues to grow, it could overflow the rim and increase the possibility of an explosion.

The observatory says an eruption could send up an ash cloud 20,000 feet or more.

The Alaska Volcano Observatory says satellite images show lava at the edge of the crater rim of 5,675-foot Cleveland Mountain on uninhabited on Chuginadak Island, about 940 miles southwest of Anchorage..read more

----

(IrishWeather- Oct-08-2011) Exclusion Zone Set Up Around Indonesia’s Anak Krakatau (Child of Krakatoa)

  11309 10° -24° W 23°N OCT-07 04:20 UTC C1.1          
  11310 52° - 66 ° W 33°S OCT-04              

LATEST HURRICANE REPORTS:

READ ABOUT on globaldisasterwatch

latest news: New tropical storm could develop near Florida

  11311 35° - 49° W 12° S                
  11312 23° - 09° E 32° N                 or: visit NOAA Hurricane warning center for latest informations
  11313 28° E- 14° E 14° S                  

BBC- Oct- 09- 2011: Thousands evacuate Thailand flood-hit areas (see also Oct 05)

BBC- Oct- 09- 2011:Two storms head for Mexico

                           

EARTHQUAKES above M 6.0 today:

                          none yet at time of this update ( 8:00 UTC)
CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs > none CME arrival notices >

 

NOAA/ Top News of the Day: OCT- 09- 2011

RSOE EDIS ( for surrender theoreticians or believers only!)

RSOE EDIS, a website registered in Hungary claims its "Supervolcanoes Monitoring System" ( by what means?)would have achieved evidence that almost all supervolcanoes known worldwide showed minor signs of activities this year, mainly between Aug. 08 and October 05: I have rather doubts that the situations would be really so severe. The website wants much but does little to update their informations and give evidence for.

active regions rotating out of view today> 11306 89°- 104° W 13° N geomagnetic storms: currently none solar radiation storms: none
NO SATELLITE IMAGES TODAY (except two minor event heading into E and S-E direction, no significant and Earth directed CMEs were observed on OCT- 08)     read also:globaldisasterwatch GOEShp 3 days data plot: OCT 05 -07- 2011 Observation of possible permanent active regions and coronal holes:

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info)

visit solen.info for more informations   EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*       ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
date Solar special reports: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES (CH):   OCT- 08- 2011 magnitudes alert level  

EARTHQUAKE WARNING!

LATEST KNOWN ACTIVITY REPORTS:

     

other News:

OCT- 07- 2011

SUNSPOTS:
CH 478 DEVELOPING   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: 2011- October -08  

The arrival of the last CME is still expected, and might take place today.No further CME was observed between Oct- 06 and 08. After this last impact tectonic plates seem now definitely have time to cool below that temperature , where they would create seismic waves and friction while they contract .

ESTIMATED EARTHQUAKE EVENTS:

While global volcanism would decrease by now,Earth quake activity will rise for about one week the probability of one or more expectable strong or even extreme Sea or Earthquake will be highest between Oct 09- 11 Magnitudes could achieve levels above M 8.0, capable to cause a significant and disastrous Tsunami.

MOST LIKELY EARTHQUAKE LOCATIONS:

Reffering to the main impact regions of the last CMEs, the plates , resp boundaries westwards and eastwards of the Atlantic will be the areas with the highest probability for Earthquake events on the next days :

EUROPE AND AFRICA ( Including ASIA MINOR)

SOUTH AMERICA

NORTHERN AMERICA ( USA) EAST COAST AND CENTRAL

El Hierro/ Islas Canarias Spain)

16 minor quakes were registered on OCT- 06 and 21 minor quakes yesterday near to the island of El Hierro / Canary Islands/ Spain by EMSC. With a highest magnitude of M 3.6 this is again a slight increase compared to the days before:

M 3.6 - CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION - 2011-10-07 02:30 UTC

This activity could aagain increase today with the arrival of the expected last CME ( see left side) but then decrease again after OCT- 09 for at least some days.

still image taken from the E Hierro webcam on OCT- 08:

 

 

CURRENT TROPICAL STORMS

visit NOAA Hurricane warning center for latest informations)/ find other real time alerts centers here

  88         QUIET 6.0- 7.0 2
 

SOLAR FLUX:

  EARTH FACING ON > CH 478 OCT- 06 UNSETTLED 2011- October -09 ATLANTIC: -Hurricane Philippe was located about 535 mi (865 km) ESE of Bermuda.
  122 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (solen.info): 324 - 421 km/s.

OTHER EFFECTIVE CH:

---   MINOR STORM 6.0- > 7.5 2- 3  
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

no major flares were observed on the Earth facing sun side on Oct- 07

  MAJOR STORM 2011- October -10  

PACIFIC:Tropical storm Jova was located about 520 mi. (835 km) SW of Manzanillo, Mexico. Jova could become a hurricane by Saturday.

 

07

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latidude: EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

MAJOR FLARES- CLASS* SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: CME IMPACTS: 6.0- >8.0 2- 3
  impact time: TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light): -Hurricane Irwin was located about 910 mi. (1460 km) SW of the southern tip of Baja California.
  11305 94°- 108° W 12° N SEP-30

OCT-04/ 23:30

not listed M flare

SAGITTARIUS?

halo(4)

arrived:

OCT-08

 

9:00 UTC

> 140 nT!

IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES/ VOLCANO ERUPTIONS:   PHILIPPINES - Potential cyclone nears Samar, may cause floods, landslides. A low-pressure area earlier expected to intensify into a cyclone moved closer to Samar in Eastern Visayas before noon Friday, with state weather forecasters warning it may cause possible flash floods and landslides.
  11306 75°- 89° W 13° N OCT- 01              
  11307 47 °-61 °W N15° decaying 18:47            
  11308 14°- 28° W 26° S                

Real time hurrican watch by NOAA- (ATLANTIC)

Real time hurrican watch by NOAA- (PACIFIC)

click here for: CENTRAL PACIFIC

  11309 4°E - 10° W 23°N OCT-07 OCT- 05/ after 5:00 UTC weak C flare

PISCES

PISCES

weak partial CME

OCT- 06/07

  only accounted because of sun wind effects
  11310 38° - 52 ° W 33°S OCT-04              
  11311 22° - 36° W 12° S                  
  11312 37° - 23° E 32° N                 last update: 14:40 UTC- CME has arrived  
  11313 40° E- 26° E 14° S                  
                         
CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs > 2 CME arrival notices >

the last in a number of CMEs has arrived today after 8:00 ,. The magnetometer alues increased sharply after 9.00 UTC. At the time of this update, the main CME is currently again coming in above the Atlantic has a value of 140 nT, but not reached its peak yet.

NOAA/ Top News of the Day: OCT- 08- 2011
active regions rotating out of view today> 11305 94°- 108° W 12° N geomagnetic storms: currently none solar radiation storms: none
NO SATELLITE IMAGES TODAY (except two minor event heading into E and S-E direction, no significant and Earth directed CMEs were observed on OCT- 06)       GOEShp 3 days data plot: OCT 05 -07- 2011 Observation of possible permanent active regions and coronal holes:
  O

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info)

visit solen.info for more informations   EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*       ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
date Solar special reports: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES (CH):   OCT- 07- 2011 magnitudes alert level  

EARTHQUAKES TODAY:

LATEST KNOWN VOLCANO ACTIVITY REPORTS:

      WEB FINDINGS:

OCT- 06- 2011

SUNSPOTS:

CH 478 DEVELOPING   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: 2011- October -07  

Still the tectonic plates are hot and had no time to cool down.to a certain temperature necessary to cause signficant seismic waves and friction shocks. Insetad. volcanic activity rose form Sep 28 until today to 6 volcanoes those are eruptive and are on alert level 3 of 4 ( watch advisory).

No further CME was observed on Oct- 06 and 07,.

If no further Earth directed CME occures at least the next two days( until Oct 09) , the probability of an expectable strong or even extreme Sea or Earthquake would become imminent from Oct 08 on but rather on Oct 09/ 10 and 11. Magnitudes could achieve levels above M 8.0, capable to cause a significant and disastrous Tsunami.

My Earthquake forecasts would be updated if necessary.

Earthquakes today (M 6.0 and higher):

M 6.1 - SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS - 2011-10-07 08:58 UTC

El Hierro/ Islas Canarias Spain)

(image right side>) New steam emissions can be observed today- Oct- 07 surging out of two craters on the shield volcano on the Island El Hierro/ Canary Islands/ Spain.

For some day the activity had decreased to start again last night until this morning, most likely fed with new energy by the two new CMEs which impacted yesterday.

magmatic seismic waves also increased since yesterday by number as well as by strength: strongest quake measured today until time of this update :

M 3.6 - CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION - 2011-10-07 02:30 UTC

remark: There are mostly strong passats wind on the Canaries, those have the quality that they blow constantly over hours or daysand from one direction only. . This explains while the steam on the webcam image >does notr rise up but is instantly blown towards the East.

 

The cabildo de el Hierro has issued its last bulletin on Sep 28

Valley del Golfo/ still webcam image/ 20111007/ 11:54 UTC

Weather underground: Sea Level Rise

Sea Level Rise

Since the beginning of the 20th century, the seas have continued to rise at an average rate of 1.7 ± 0.5 mm per year, according to the IPCC (Bindoff et al., 2007). This increase, however, has not happened at a constant rate. The first noted increase was over the period of 1961 to 2003, when the average rate of sea level rise was 1.8 ± 0.5 mm per year (Church et al, 2001; Church and White, 2006; Bindoff et al., 2007). Global mean sea level measurements have become even larger since 1993. According to the IPCC, "For the period 1993 to 2003, the rate of sea level rise is estimated from observations with satellite altimetry as 3.1 ± 0.7 mm yr–1, significantly higher than the average rate."

The historical record from tide gauges shows that large rates have been measured during other periods since the 1950s other than from 1993 to 2003 (Bindoff et al., 2007). The global mean sea level has changed significantly throughout Earth's history. As mentioned earlier, during the last glacial maximum about 20,000 years ago when the average global temperature was 4° to 7°C colder, sea level was 120 m lower than it is currently (Waelbroeck et al., 2002; Schneider von Deimling, et al., 2006; Rahmstorf, 2007). In contrast, during the Pliocene three million years ago, the climate was 2° to 3°C warmer and the seas were 25–35 m higher than today (Dowsett et al., 1994; Rahmstorf, 2007).

  99         QUIET 6.0- 7.0 2- 3
 

SOLAR FLUX:

  EARTH FACING ON > CH 478 OCT- 06 UNSETTLED 2011- October -08
  123 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (solen.info): 347 - 406 km/s.

OTHER EFFECTIVE CH:

---   MINOR STORM 6.0- 7.0 2- 3  
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

    MAJOR STORM 2011- October -09  
 

07

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latidude: EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

MAJOR FLARES- CLASS* SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: CME IMPACTS: 6.0- > 7.5 3
  impact time: TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
  11305 88°- 94° W 12° N SEP-30

OCT-04/ 23:30

not listed M flare

SAGITTARIUS?

halo(4)

OCT-07

    IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES/ VOLCANO ERUPTIONS:  
  11306 60°- 74° W 13° N OCT- 01              
  11307 35°W-49 °W N15°   18:47            
  11308 0°- 14° W 26° S                

 

  11309 16° - 02° E 23°N OCT-07 OCT- 05/ after 5:00 UTC weak C flare

PISCES

PISCES

weak partial CME

OCT- 06/07

  only accounted because of sun wind effects
  11310 23° - 37 ° W 33°S OCT-04              
  11311 07° - 21° W 12° S                      
  11312 49° - 35° E 32° N                 CME arrival expected for today  
  11313 54° E- 40° E 14° S                  
                         
CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs > 2 CME arrival notices >

 

NOAA/ Top News of the Day: OCT- 07- 2011
active regions rotating out of view today>       geomagnetic storms: currently none solar radiation storms: none    
NO SATELLITE IMAGES TODAY (except two minor event heading into E and S-E direction, no significant and Earth directed CMEs were observed on OCT- 06)       GOEShp 3 days data plot: OCT 05 -07- 2011 Observation of possible permanent active regions and coronal holes:
  O

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info)

visit solen.info for more informations   EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*       ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
date Solar special reports: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES (CH):   OCT- 06- 2011 magnitudes alert level  

EARTHQUAKES TODAY:

LATEST KNOWN VOLCANO ACTIVITY REPORTS:

SUN ACTIVITY:

OCT- 05- 2011

SUNSPOTS:

CH 478 DEVELOPING   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: 2011- October -06 ( uncertain!)   ARCTICAL TECTONIC SPREADING :

 

 

  115     CH 477 RECURRENT QUIET 6.0- 7.0 2- 3

two significant but more unusual Earthquakes occured Southwest of Iceland in the Arctic sea, indicating again the increased continental spreading activity between the tectonic plates of Northamerica and Eurasia:

M 5.6 - REYKJANES RIDGE - 2011-10-06 00:39 UTC

 

First Earthquake above M 6.0 since more than one week:

M 6.2 - JUJUY, ARGENTINA - 2011-10-06 11:12 UTC

The stratovolcano SHIVELUCH is located on the Russian peninsula Kamchatka and belongs to the volcanoes those are permanently active on a low level and therefore always on yellow alert. Already 2010, Shiveluch was for a short time on highest red alert when he had a stronger eruption covering the poorly inhabited environment with a thicker layer of ash.

Shiveluch`s Seismicity increased on 3 October. Ash plumes rose to altitudes of 6-9 km (19,700-29,500 ft) a.s.l. during 3-5 October. Ground-based observers noted on 5 October a brightly incandescent lava dome, which was also detected as a large and bright thermal anomaly in satellite imagery. The Aviation Color Code was raised to Red.

ICELAND VOLCANOES & ARCTIC SEA

uncertain reports about new activities at Katla volcano. The webcam is down for a while.

 

El Hierro, Spain:

Webcam images showed no steam emissions today.Voolcanic tremor activity decreased to 7 measured quakes with magnitudes above 2.0 yesterday. Maximal magnitude was:

M 3.1 - CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION - 2011-10-05 19:54 UTC

 
 

SOLAR FLUX:

  EARTH FACING ON > CH 478 OCT- 06 UNSETTLED 2011- October -07 ( uncertain!)  
  126 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (solen.info): 344 - 469 km/s.

OTHER EFFECTIVE CH:

---   MINOR STORM 6.0- 7.0 2- 3    
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

    MAJOR STORM 2011- October -08 ( uncertain!)    
 

20

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latidude: EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

MAJOR FLARES- CLASS* SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: CME IMPACTS: 6.0- 7.0 2- 3  
  impact time: TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):  
  11305 66°- 80° W 12° N SEP-30

OCT- 02/ 0:56 UTC

OCT-04/ 23:30

M3.9/1N

not listed M flare

PISCES

SAGITTARIUS?

halo(3)

halo(4)

OCT- 06

OCT-07

  OCT 06/12:00 UTC IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES/ VOLCANO ERUPTIONS:    
  11306 46°- 60° W 13° N OCT- 01                
  11307 18°W-32 °W N15°   18:47              
  11309 29° - 15° E 23°N OCT-07 OCT- 05/ after 5:00 UTC weak C flare

PISCES

PISCES

weak partial CME

OCT- 06/07

  only accounted because of sun wind effects      
  11310 10° - 24 ° W 33°S OCT-04                      
  11311 06° E- 12° W 12° S)                  
  11312 62° E- 48° E 32° N)                 CME arrival expected for today  
  11313 69° E- 55° E 14° S)                  
                         
CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs > 2 CME arrival notices >

the halo CME ( 3) from AR 11305 arrived today- Oct- 06 after 12:00 UTC ( first solar wind shock) and sustained the geomagnetic strom conditions from the prior CME impact. Values ( strengths) and duration of both CMEs appeared very similar. The CME peaked after 15:00 UTC again above the Atlantic with the highest value of 140 nT. This event might even bring more energies the the currently critical volcanoes of >El HIERRO , KATLA ( Iceland) and will as well effect until South America ( chile) in the west and Africa in the East

NOAA/ Top News of the Day: OCT- 06- 2011
active regions rotating out of view today> 11302 85°- 100° W (N 13°) SEP-28 geomagnetic storms: - solar radiation storms: -- .      
SATELLITE IMAGES- OCT 05- 2011 STEREO-"AHEAD" STEREO-"AHEAD" SoHO SoHO STEREO- "BEHIND" STEREO-"AHEAD"   SDO /AIA GOEShp 3 days data plot: OCT 03 -05- 2011 Observation of possible permanent active regions and coronal holes:
                    suspicious possible permanent active regions:

current number of CORONAL HOLE ( by NOAA)

last date on sun longitude 0° ( = Earth facing position)

right column: next date when in 0° position

Coronal Holes and active regions on the same heligraphic position ( here as reference named 0° pos) during previous rotation periods:
>>A minor CME heading mainly towards Northern direction was observed today- OCT- 05 after 3:00 UTC . The CME had its source in the large Sun spot of new formed AR 11309 . Most of this CME likely will fail the earth >> another CME erupted with a C 9.1 flare in AR 11313 on OCT 05 after 12:42 UTC . AR 11313 consists out of one of the larger sun spots those suddenly began to form out in September 2011

Fortunately, also this CME was rather weak and will fail the Earth heading into Southern direction.

 

  <<Interesting on this image is the funnel form typically for CMEs : Hot Sun gases gather below and around the sun spot strongly attrackted and compressed by its gravity forces , The concentration increases and enlighten the area around it ( penumbra), Then finally the ring of sun gases breaks free its way around the sun spot.<< last known coordinates again found on same position on:

PERMANENT CORONAL HOLE Nr. 1 ( internal)

20110906

20111003
AR 11302/Earth facing on OCT- 01   PERMANENT CORONAL HOLE Nr. ? ( internal) CH 478/ 20111006 20111102
    PERMANENT CORONAL HOLE Nr. 3 ( internal) will be filled in soon!  
   

PERMANENT CORONAL HOLE Nr. 4 ( internal)

CH 477/ 20110929

20111026  
    explanations, shortcuts, foot notes etc..>>
  **GVP= global volcanism program ( Smithsonian/ USGS) *** archived report of Sep 01 not yet available       **** 1 day is added all 4 rotation periods  
  O

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info)

visit solen.info for more informations   EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*       ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
date Solar special reports: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES (CH):   OCT- 05- 2011 magnitudes alert level  

EARTHQUAKES TODAY:

LATEST KNOWN VOLCANO ACTIVITY REPORTS:

SUN ACTIVITY:

OCT- 04- 2011

SUNSPOTS:

CH 478 DEVELOPING   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: 2011- October -05 (uncertain!)  

ICELAND VOLCANOES & ARCTIC SEA:

 

SINCE MIDST OF SEP ONE CME FOLLOWED ANOTHER:

>>At all- for more than one week a constant increased SUN wind stream flows towards earth and raises at least global temperatures . Adding to the immense CME energies those already charged the Earth. these stream keep the tectonic plates rather hot, resp. prevent their cooling. This at least prevents for the moment the stronger Earthquake activities, those were expected in the aftermath of the 3-5 stronger CMEs since August 27 . Just like the three CMEs on Oct 01/ 02 one serial of CMEs just followed another since midst of September! , This special environment makes rather stronger volcanic activities probable and at any time. Also the activity of the El Hierro volcano might increase soon after the latest CMEs will impact on Oct 04 or 05!

AR 11302 by NASA

( click here or onto the image above to get on the NASA website with this close-up image of AR 11302:

NEW ACTIVITY PHASE TOWARDS THE 11 YEARS SOLAR CYCLE MAXIMUM IN 2012/13?

As everyone can check out on ones`s self in the archives of solen.info. the Sun`s high frequency activities ( such as solar flux, flares , CHs or CMEs) increases towards the last year of the 11 years cycle to a new maximum. (The activity will - so NASA have its peak in March 2013 and will decrease from then on to a minimum in 2019). Since new spacecraft observatories are in place , first time in history scientists and by the Internet also everyone can really observe live , what is going on on the Sun during this phase of maximum activity within the 11 years cycle.

We had -as it seemed- records in sun spot activities and solar flux this year those topped last year`s values( 2010) sometimes for more than the double and I thought about how any more escalation should be possible. But as it seems- however- and as it can be observed since September 2011, The Sun seems to have an idea about how: the SUN SPOTS ARE GROWING LARGER.

The first in a number of larger single Sun spots was observed in AR 11302 which rotated in and out of view end of September 2011. It grew very quickly with a significant penumbra ( indicationg its criticality) and starting up not with C flares but with wide large M and X flares soon . NASA said the major sun spot in AR 11302 was even visible with the free eye ( when using special glasses)

AR 11302 was quickly followed by AR 11305 (large) and now by AR 11309 ( medium large) .But also AR11309 developed from one day to another and behind the eastern limb already AR 11312 became visible with a larger spot than observed in AR 11302.(< see STAR active region map by solen.info left side)

  129   CH 477 RECURRENT QUIET 6.0- 7.0 2- 3

click here:Europe and Western Asia to find these Earthquakes on my internal regional volcano map.

Two larger volcano related " tremors" occured in about 1 km depth below the glacier of the volcano KATLA- in Iceland. As well as the HEKLA complex, the Katla system is known to be critical since early summer this year. Parts of the ice shield that covers the shield volcano have already melted away and an bulge formed out- a clear sign that magma has surged up into and from its magma chamber.

M 4.1- ICELAND 2011-10-05

M 3.9-ICELAND- 2011-10-05

Katla webcam

click here : and your Google Earth program will automatically find the Katla volcano for you: KATLA

One ( for that special region) stronger quake occured today in the Northern sea :

the largest was again on the midatlantic ridge exactly where the tectonic plates of Eurasia and Northern America meet each other. The repeated major quakes in this boundary this year are a clear sign for a widening of the rift based on an enhanced drift of one or both plates.. likely supported by the rapidly melting arctical ice masses :

M 4.7 - GREENLAND SEA - 2011-10-05 04:13 UTC

----

---As also reported first time on Oct- 05, also VILLARRICA Central Chile

was set on red alert, after Strombolian explosions from the crater were observed on 26 September

 

 

SOLAR FLUX:

  EARTH FACING ON > CH 478 OCT- 06 UNSETTLED 2011- October -06 (uncertain!)
  130 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (solen.info): 326 - 371 km/s.

OTHER EFFECTIVE CH:

---   MINOR STORM 6.0- 7.0 2- 3  
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

    MAJOR STORM 2011- October -07 (uncertain!)  
 

06

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (appr.)*

EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

MAJOR FLARES- CLASS* SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: CME IMPACTS: 6.0- 7.0 2- 3
  impact time: TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):

 

                  currently none IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES/ VOLCANO ERUPTIONS:  
11302 85°- 99° W (N 13°) SEP-28 OCT-04/ 14:00 UTC C 7.3 PISCES fully halo(1) OCT- 06-07   partial Earth directed minor CME
11305 52°- 66° W (12° N) SEP-30

OCT-01/ 9:58 UTC-

OCT- 02/ 0:56 UTC

OCT-04/ 23:30

M1.2/2N

M3.9/1N

not listed M flare

PISCES

PISCES

halo(2)

halo(3)

halo(4)

OCT-05/12:00UTC

OCT- 04-05

OCT-07

  > 135 nT Otherevents

BBC- Oct- 05- 2011: Thailand floods: More than 200 die, temples threatened

Its not the first flooding in Thailand:

BBC- March- 30- 2011.Thailand tourist islands flood in deadly rains

BBC- Oct- 26- 2011: In pictures: Thailand floods

BBC- May- 24- 2006: Flash floods hit north Thailand

BBC- Dec- 19- 2005:Thailand floods death toll rises

Thailand : Flood : 2002/10/04

BBC- Aug- 12- 2001: Thailand floods kill 70

11306 33°- 47° W(13° N) OCT- 01              
above: STAR active region and coronal hole map by solen.info showing the larger Sun spots produced one after another by the Sun since September 2011 in 5 active regions . 11307 04°E-10 °W(N15°)   18:47                
11309 42° - 28° E(23°N) OCT-07 OCT- 05/ after 5:00 UTC weak C flare

PISCES

PISCES

weak partial CME

OCT- 06/07

  only accounted because of sun wind effects  

 

20111005- Borneo Post-Warning status for Anak Krakatau ( "Child of Krakatau")

20111004- spiegel.de/ Anak Krakatau bebt Tausende Mal pro Tag

11310 04° E- 11 ° W (33°S) OCT-04                  
CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs > 3 CME arrival notices >

the first solar wind shock created by the arrival of CME (2) was observed today after 8:00 UTC. The values exceeded 100 nT after 11:00 UTC The CME came to its peak, while impacting on the longitude 45°- 120 ° West. The values fluctuate strongly indicating a geomagnetic storm ( G1). The values rose up to 140 nT. As recent evaluations show the main impact region of the CME very likely become also the region where the most seismic activities will occure. Since the Earth directed CME events continue now without a longer rest since midst of September, major Earthquakes are rather unlikely now. The energy transfered by these CMEs into the earth have created a substantial heat , that will will rather result in major volcano eruptions as observed during the last week those will likely increase in the next s´days. Special warnings for EL HIERRO (Canary islands) and KATLA ( Iceland)

NOAA/ Top News of the Day: OCT- 05- 2011
active regions rotating out of view today> 11302 85°- 100° W (N 13°) SEP-28 geomagnetic storms: G1 solar radiation storms: --  
SATELLITE IMAGES- OCT 04- 2011 SoHO SoHO SoHO SoHO STEREO- "BEHIND" STEREO-"AHEAD"   SDO /AIA GOEShp 3 days data plot: OCT 03 -05- 2011    

several minor CME eruption occured on Oct- 03

image below: Westward directed CME on SEP- 03 after 3:45 UTC

    CME on OCT- 04 ; backsided event after 14:00 UTC. The source is not visible. likely a filament eruption along the Northern CH extension   STEREO BEHIND proves the event as seen by SoHO was at the backside of the Sun Neverthelsse STEREO AHEAD images unveal another partial halo CME at the same time on the front side >>   ...that is partially Earth directed. SDO shows the source of this flare and CME wasAR 11302 on the western limb after 14.:00 UTC associated with a smaller event in AR 11305

suspicious possible permanent active regions:

current number of CORONAL HOLE ( by NOAA)

last date on sun longitude 0° ( = Earth facing position)

right column: next date when in 0° position

Coronal Holes and active regions on the same heligraphic position ( here as reference named 0° pos) during previous rotation periods:
    last known coordinates again found on same position on:

PERMANENT CORONAL HOLE Nr. 1 ( internal)

20110906

20111003
AR 11302/Earth facing on OCT- 01   PERMANENT CORONAL HOLE Nr. 2 ( internal) will be filled in soon!    
    PERMANENT CORONAL HOLE Nr. 3 ( internal) will be filled in soon!    
   

PERMANENT CORONAL HOLE Nr. 4 ( internal)

CH 477/ 20110929

20111026  

>>update- Oct- 06: images the days Oct o4 and 04 by STEREO were not available yet, most likely by a transmission problem . The images those arrived later show some major Earth directed CMEs on Oct.- 04>>

after 1:00 UTC likely AR 11305 send a smaller haze of sun plasma in Earth direction

This activity- one of the largest flares I have seen so far began most likely after 12:00 UTC on Oct 04 and soon knocked out the instruments ob STEREO by its immense x-radiation. The first image that came in late after this blackout on Oct- 06, show and multiple event: < .. first an x? flare on the backside . At the same time , a filament eruption on the Northern pole caused a significant CME with Earth directed parts < > while the large flare on the backside by and by decreased, the activity AR 11305 on the front side intensified and produced a most likely fully Earth directed minor CME around 23:30 UTC >>                
    explanations, shortcuts, foot notes etc..>>
  **GVP= global volcanism program ( Smithsonian/ USGS) *** archived report of Sep 01 not yet available       **** 1 day is added all 4 rotation periods  
  O

SOLAR DATA (Yesterday`s summary by:solen.info)

visit solen.info for more informations   EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS*       ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
date Solar special reports: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: CORONAL HOLES (CH):   OCT- 04- 2011 magnitudes alert level  

EARTHQUAKES TODAY:

LATEST KNOWN VOLCANO ACTIVITY REPORTS:

 

OCT- 03- 2011

SUNSPOTS:

CH 478 DEVELOPING   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: 2011- October -04 ( uncertain!)      

 
  91   CH 477 DECAYING QUIET 6.0- 7.0 2- 3

AFAR DEPRESSION / RED SEA( HORN OF AFRICA:

found on Herold Sun- OCT 03- 2011:

A GIANT underground reservoir of molten rock has been discovered under the deserts of Ethiopia by British geologists

They targeted the Afar region in the Horn of Africa after a recent surge in volcanic activity and earthquakes plus the appearance of giant cracks in the rocky surface. Tectonic plates in the area are pulling apart and gradually creating a new ocean, The (London) Sunday Times said.

Now, the scientists have mapped the colossal underground lake of magma that lies up to 32km below the earth's surface.

"We estimate that there is 3000 cubic kilometres of molten rock under Afar - enough to cover all of London ... with around a kilometre of rock," said Kathy Whaler, professor of geophysics at Edinburgh University.

The reservoir is under such pressure that it has forced tongues of molten rock up towards the surface, producing eruptions and earthquakes.

 

EL HIERRO / Islas Canarias/ Spain update)

Webcam images of the valley el Golfo show still lower steam emmissions rising during the day from the same main crater as observed on the webcam during Sep 27- 29 . These activities decrease towards the evening and overnight.New and temporarely larger emissions could be observed rising up from another source behind this crater further South. This second crater is not visible on the webcam but belongs to the system of multiple craters in the Southwestern part .

The seismic activity was increasing during the last days.

last earthquake data:

SEP- 30: 17 quakes ( M 2.3- M 3.3)

OCT- 01: 26 quakes ( M 1.8.-M 3.5

OCT- 02: 25 quakes ( M 2.5- M 3.7

OCT- 03: 33 quakes ( M 2.5- M 3.7

-----------------

(Smithsonian/USGS) The alert level for the volcano SHIVELUCH, situated on the Kamatchka peninsula( Russia) was raised to RED, after ash plumes rose to altitudes of 6-9 km (19,700-29,500 ft) a.s.l. during 3-5 October. Ground-based observers noted on 5 October a brightly incandescent lava dome, which was also detected as a large and bright thermal anomaly in satellite imagery.

 

SOLAR FLUX:

  EARTH FACING ON > CH 478 OCT- 06 UNSETTLED 2011- October -05 ( uncertain!)
  128 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (solen.info): 349 - 445 km/s.

OTHER EFFECTIVE CH:

---   MINOR STORM 6.0- 7.0 2- 3  
  PLANETARY A INDEX:

notices

    MAJOR STORM 2011- October -06 ( uncertain!)  
 

06

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (appr.)*

EARTH FACING ON

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

MAJOR FLARES- CLASS* SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH

DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: CME IMPACTS: 6.0- 7.0 2- 3
  impact time: TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
  11308 35° - 18° E (26° S)   decaying           currently none IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES/ VOLCANO ERUPTIONS:  
11302 75°- 90° W (N 13°) SEP-28 OCT-01/ 8:44 UTC C 4.1 PISCES fully halo OCT- 04 likely arrived: OCT- 04 after 11:00 UTC ^single images taken on Oct- 03- 2011 ^live images of Webcam las Puntas / El Hierro/ Islas Canarias/ Spain
  11305 39°- 54° W (12° N) SEP-30

OCT-01/ 9:58 UTC-

OCT- 02/ 0:56 UTC

M1.2/2N

M3.9/1N

PISCES

PISCES

fully halo

fully halo

OCT- 04

OCT- 04-05

strong CME
  11306 19°- 34° W(13° N) OCT- 01            
  11307 07°E -08°W(N15°)   18:47          
  11309 26° - 41° E(23°N) OCT-07                
  11310 16°.1° E (33°S) OCT-04                
CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs > 4  

GOEShp 3 days data plot: OCT 02-04- - 2011

  NOAA/ Top News of the Day: OCT- 04- 2011
active regions rotating out of view today> 11302 75°- 90° W (N 13°) SEP-28 geomagnetic storms: -- solar radiation storms: --

( wikipedia Great Rift Valley):

The Great Rift Valley is a name given in the late 19th century by British explorer John Walter Gregory to the continuous geographic trench, approximately 6,000 kilometres (3,700 mi) in length, that runs from northern Syria in Southwest Asia to central Mozambique in East Africa. . Today, the term is most often used to refer to the valley of the East African Rift, the divergent plate boundary which extends from the Afar Triple Junction southward across eastern Africa, and is in the process of splitting the African Plate into two new separate plates. Geologists generally refer to these incipient plates as the Nubian Plate and the Somali Plate.

image above: der spiegel.de

wikipedia ( AFAR DEPRESSION)The Afar Depression is the product of a tectonic triple junction (the Afar Triple Junction), where the spreading ridges that form the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden emerge on land and meet the East African Rift. The central meeting place for these three pieces of Earth's crust is around Lake Abbe. The Afar Depression is one of two places on Earth where a mid-ocean ridge can be studied on land, the other being Iceland.

SATELLITE IMAGES- OCT 01/ 02- 2011 SoHO STEREO- "Ahead" STEREO- "Ahead STEREO-"Behind" SDO /AIA SDO /AIA   SDO /AIA      
>>update- Oct- 06: images the days Oct o4 and 04 by STEREO were not available yet, most likely by a transmission problem . The images those arrived later show a very weak partial Northern directed small and long duration filament eruption along the Southern edge of the Norther Polar Coronal Hole extension at 30- 45 ° E . A first weak CME erupted after midnight . Around 4:00 UTC this activity increased, peaking in a second stronger CME along with a major backside flare. This CME will not be accounted in my report as only a small portion may reach the Earth>> >> another major event on the visible sun disc began during the day most likely in AR 11305 and increased after 22:00 UTC >