-----------------------

 

note: with elder machines the page will need some time to load!

alien- homepage.de- Earth quake statistics- -SUN SPOT ACTIVITY- 11- years solar cycle- last update: SEP- 06-- 2012- -07:00 UTC copyright: reserved

background image: Aurora Borealis /COMMONS / wikipedia
open source earthquake forecast project created and provided by: alien-homepage.de-

 

 

2012/ 13 - MAXIMUM OF 11- YEAR SOLAR CYCLE

SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG

ARCHIVE
AUGUST - 2012

 

NASA STEREO BEACON

alien-homepage.de / internal links:

TRANSLATORS
recommended: install Google toolbar with integrated translator!
PROJECT CENTRAL:

ws

PAGES RELATED TO THIS SOLAR/TERRESTRIAL PROJECT>
>HAVE YOU ANY COMMENT?
               
SOHO REALTIME current view on the Sun
SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG/ ARCHIVES:
2012 >
AUGUST      
2011 >
2010 >
NOTE: I WILL APPLY A NEW ARCHIVE SYSTEM IN 2012. CLICK ON THE BUTTON (right) FOR THE NEW ARCHIVE DIRECTORY! >

Note: Due to the high data amount in these monthly archives, I am currently trying to improve this by putting the single archives into collapsible panels.

Also I will split the monthly archive into 4 weekly ones. click on th following tabs to open the collapsible panels. You can report to my blog, if you should still experience problems when loading this page.

click here to open panel with graphics for volcano maps map , Earthquake statistic AUGUST 2012
   

True and REAL TIME graphic solution, that makes obvious the coincidences of CME impacts and extraordinary natural phenomenons such as heavier Earthquakes, volcano eruptions, hurricanes. sudden ice meltdowns (floddings) and others

( click on the graphic top to enlarge it):

INTERNAL MAPS: click on the images or links below to get to my large regional maps, where you find all volcanoes around the world with descriptions , webcams and much more such as ancients sites! . Weekly regular activity updates, special earthquakes events with many functions

world volcano map 1.0

world volcano map version 2.0

Europe and Western Asia Africa and Arabic peninsula Central America and Mexico South America- Northern part South America- Southern part Central America and Mexico Northern America Kamchatka peninsula Japan region Indonesia and Philippines Australia and Southern Pacific

- incident graphic will be completed at the end of the month-

SPACECRAFTS:
SoHO
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
SDO /AIA
Solar Dynamics Observatory
STEREO
Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory
GOES
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites

ACE

 
Advanced Composition Explorer

^^ internal Earthquake statistics- with Sun activity curves : green = SUNSPOT NUMBER, Pink= SOLAR FLUX, blue= PLANETARY A INDEX

click here to see some of the paradox observations made during that solar cycle first possibly by observatory sopacecrafts: : CORONAL HOLES THOSE REAPPEAR DURING SEVERAL SOLAR ROTATION PERIODS ON THE SAME HELIOGRAPHIC POSITION

 

 

VIDEOS/ REPORTS OF THE WEEK- AUGUST 2012:

VIDEOS/ REPORTS OF THE WEEK-AUGUST -2012:

HORRIFYING VIDEO OF THE WEEK: (posted onAUGUST- 26- 2012) from my terrestrial blog

Elevated levels of radioactive elements found at Louisiana sinkhole site

 
     
 

VIDEO OF THE WEEK: (posted on: AUGUST- 09- 2012 USTREAM/ NASAJPL- Curiosity Cam-

 

NASAJPL- Curiosity Cam - last update: the camera will be online soon after configuration and tests will be completed ! ( appr AUG- 15?)


Streaming by Ustream

 

 

click here to open and close collapsible panel with SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG - ARCHIVE- AUGUST 22- 31- 2012
/ eruptive proinence

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

AUGUST

 

DAY:

31

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

MAP:

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 7.6 - PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION - 2012-08-31 12:47:32 UTC

 

EMSC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EARTHQUAKES TODAY

REPORTS:

NAME of REGION

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME

MAGNITUDE

DEPTH

CATHEGORY

GOOGLE EARTH:

 

 

PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION 10.86 N ; 126.68 E 2012-08-31 12:47:32 UTC M 7.6 20 km unknown

---

 

                 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EARTHQUAKES TODAY

REPORTS:

NAME of REGION

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME

MAGNITUDE

DEPTH

CATHEGORY

GOOGLE EARTH:

 

 

M 5.0 - GULF OF ADEN - 13.24 N ; 50.44 E 2012-08-31 15:47:43 UTC M 5.0 40 km unknown

---

 

                 

SEAQUAKE AND TSUNAMI

      LAST UPDATE >>

20120831/ 18: 50 UTC

click on the links (in COURIER FONTS) to get latest reports:  

Tsunami Warning/Advisory NOW in effect >

NONE ( CANCELLED)

LINKS TO TSUNAMI WARNING CENTERS >>> NOAA Japan Meteorological Agency   
LATEST REPORT AT TIME OF THIS UPDATE >>> TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 004 PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS ISSUED AT 1454Z 31 AUG 2012 THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS...EXCEPT ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA... WASHINGTON...OREGON AND CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL SEA LEVEL READINGS INCLUDED. WARNING IS CANCELLED. ... TSUNAMI WARNING CANCELLATION ... THE TSUNAMI WARNING AND/OR WATCH ISSUED BY THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER IS NOW CANCELLED FOR INDONESIA / PHILIPPINES / BELAU  
DATE
UTC INITIAL SEA QUAKE MAGNITUDE DEPTH COORDINATES

EARTHQUAKE REPORT (EMSC/ USGS)

     

AUGUST- 31- 2012

12: 48 UTC

PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION

M 7.6

33 km

10.9 NORTH 127.1 EAST

M 7.6 - PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION - 2012-08-31 12:47:32 UTC  
NOAA REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY:      

AFFECTED REGIONS ( INITIAL REPORT)

     
REGIONS OF ORIGIN: TSUNAMI COORDINATES: WAVE AMPLITUDE WAVE FREQUENCY: ISSUED AT TSUNAMI END LOCATION FORECAST POINT COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME -------------------------------- ------------ ------------ INDONESIA GEME 4.6N 126.8E 1335Z 31 AUG BEREBERE 2.5N 128.7E 1353Z 31 AUG PATANI 0.4N 128.8E 1419Z 31 AUG PHILIPPINES LEGASPI 13.2N 123.8E 1338Z 31 AUG DAVAO 6.8N 125.7E 1340Z 31 AUG PALANAN 17.1N 122.6E 1353Z 31 AUG BELAU MALAKAL 7.3N 134.5E 1407Z 31 AUG  

DART 52405

12.9N

132.3E

0.03M / 0.1FT

10 minutes

20120831/ 13:33 UTC

unknown

 

LEGASPI PH

13.1N

123.8E

0.03M / 0.1FT

14 minutes

201120831/ 13:43 UTC

unknown

 
INITIAL /FIRST TSUNAMI EVALUATION BY NOAA/ PTWC > EVALUATION SEA LEVEL READINGS CONFIRM THAT A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. THIS TSUNAMI MAY HAVE BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTLINES OF THE REGION NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. AUTHORITIES IN THE REGION SHOULD TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION IN RESPONSE TO THIS POSSIBILITY. THIS CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEA LEVEL GAUGES NEAREST THE REGION AND REPORT IF ANY ADDITIONAL TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY. THE WARNING WILL NOT EXPAND TO OTHER AREAS OF THE PACIFIC UNLESS ADDITIONAL DATA ARE RECEIVED TO WARRANT SUCH AN EXPANSION. FOR AFFECTED AREAS - WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES ARE OBSERVED FOR TWO HOURS AFTER THE ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OR DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RAPID CURRENTS. AS LOCAL CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.  
 

 

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

 

 

 

 

 

click on region name to see epicenter maps:

EVENTS WITH PARTICULAR QUAKES EXCEEDING M 3.0:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EMSC

 

AFTERQUAKES/ PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION

AUGUST 31 -2012

QUAKES ABOVE M 2.0 :

14

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 5.7 - PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION - 2012-08-31 23:37:58 UTC  
PREQUAKES/ GULF OF ADEN

AUGUST 31 -2012

QUAKES ABOVE M 2.0 :

03

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: e : EMSC > Earthquake > M 4.9 - GULF OF ADEN - 2012-08-31 15:47:39 UTC About EMSC  

REGION OF CALIFORNIA (USGS)( at time of this update)

AUGUST 31 -2012

QUAKES ABOVE M 2.0 :

13

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.4 - SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA- 2012-08- 31 13:56:02 UTC  

OTHER QUAKE SWARMS WITH MAGNITUDES > M 2.0 < M 3.0

NORTHERN ITALY: 00

WESTERN TURKEY: 05

EASTERN TURKEY- near VAN: 00

CANARY ISLANDS/ EL HIERRO: 00

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL: 01

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

note: allthough CME impacts are regularly coincident at least with TEMPORARY volcano acticity increases, my time does not allow to introduce such

< stats

 

DETAILLED resp. "FINE TUNED"statistic reports as required to communicate this!. This section therefor can only refer to changes in "ALERT LEVELS" as published by GVP. Click on the buttons (right) to findat least more detailled internal reports >

maps >

 
REGION:
NAME/USGS datalink:
GEOGRAPHIC POSITION: LAT. / LONG.
VOLCANO NUMBER
VOLCANO TYPE
WEBCAM DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL MAP: LOCAL SURVEY

 

ECUADOR

           

 

 

GVP

 

Wikipedia:

                   
             

20120814

report by:

GVP

 

 

 

                               

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

no tropical storm reported so far

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED:

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground.com

Hurricane Isaac

AUG- 20- 2012 NORTHERN ATLANTIC

35 MPH (decreasing)

92.6° W

32.7 ° N

APPR. 200 KM NORTH WW OfF LOUSIANA

NW

 

 

wunderground.com Tropical Storm Kirk

AUG- 24- 2012

NORTHERN ATLANTIC

^ 100 MPH

50.7° W

29.0 ° N

APPR. 1000 KM SE of BERMUDA

NNW

   
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Leslie AUG-28 EASTERN PACIFIC

^ 50 MPH

46.8° W   

14.7° N

APPR. 1300 KM SE OF BERMUDA

W

   
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Ileana AUG- 25- 2012 EASTERN PACIFIC

^ 85 MPH

114.2° W  

21.2° N

APPR 300 km SW OF LA PAZ / GULF OF CALIFORNIA

NNW

   

PHILIPPINE EARTHQUAKE & TSUNAMI

            20120901

report by:

philstar.com

 

NO OVERVIEW YET AFTER M 7. 6 SEAQUAKE STRUCKED NEAR PHILIPPINE ISLANDS.--1 dead- 45 injured in Surigao quake 

MANILA, Philippines (Xinhua) - The number of people who were injured in a 5.9- seaquake in the southern Philippines rose to 45, a senior government official said today.Of the total injured individuals, five were admitted to different hospitals, and minor cracks were observed in some buildings in Surigao del Norte, National Disaster Risk and Reduction Management Council(NDRRMC) executive director Benito Ramos said. Most of those injured suffered multiple abrasions, lacerated wounds, and hyperventilation, he said. The earthquake, which was tectonic in origin occurred two kilometers south of Dinagat Islands in Surigao del Norter at 3:58 p.m. yesterday with depth of 16 kilometers....read more...

(philippine-news.com) Philippines Tsunami Warning Canceled After Magnitude-7.6 Quake

Residents in coastal areas were advised to evacuate to ground at least 10 meters (33 feet) higher than sea level, vulcanologist Jane Punongbayan told local radio dzMM. “The quake lasted long and there was panic,” Surigao del Norte Governor Sol Matugas said on dzMM. The region was also hit by a number of aftershocks, including one with a preliminary magnitude of 5.5 that struck about 9:15 p.m. local time, according to the U.S. Geological Survey...Waves measuring as high as 16 centimeters (6 inches) were reported in Surigao City, the Philippines chief volcanologist, Renato Solidum, said on dzMM radio. The first tsunami waves did not hit Samar province and Siargao Island as expected at around 9:32 p.m., Solidum said....read more...

 

LATEST IMAGES FROM MARS ROVER "CURIOSITY" (click on images to enlarge)

        20120830

report by:

internal/ summary

 


(intern.) after a longer period of testing the functions of the recently successfully landed Mars Rover such as its ability to move, the laser and neutron devices and its full chemistry laboratory ,Curiosity has made the first minor excursions.NASA's Mars rover Curiosity drove about 70 feet (about 21 meters) on the mission's 21st Martian day, or sol (Aug. 30, 2012) and then took images with its Navigation Camera that are combined into this scene, which includes the fresh tracks. The view is centered toward the west-northwest. As next curiosity is scheduled to climb over the Gale crater, whichmore than 5 kilometers (18.000 ft.) high. The Gale crater is a very old formation- possibly even an old lake- filled with debris and was chosen as best to explore Mars` ancient history.( video right side: latest NASA/ JPL news conference - AUG on USTREAM)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2 - SOLAR

 

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

144

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

277-368

FLARES

C

11

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

130

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 7.8

 

M

 

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

02

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

80- 120 nT

 

X

 

 

 

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

OVERALL SOLAR ACTIVITY >> :

INCREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 

REMARKS/ CONF.*

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES /FLARES

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20120815

 

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

 

20120722

20120831

 

 

11553

30° - 44° W

21° S

HSX/ alpha type

 

 

 

 

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

 

11554

66°-80° W

15° N

Dai /beta

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER

LATITUDE:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

 

11555

03° E - 11° W

08° N

Dao/ beta

AUG- 31

       

CH 531

TRANSEQU

CLOSED

AUG- 27

AUG- 27

?

 
 

11558

36°- 22° E

17° N

Bxo/ beta

SEP- 02

 

 

 

 

LAST- NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION >

AUG 19

N-P - CH- EXT

 

 

11559

faded

 

Axx alpha type

 

 

 

 

 

LAST- SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION >

AUG- 19

SP - CH- EXT

 

 

11560

24°-03° E

03° N

Dao/ beta

SEP- 01

 

 

 

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

   

 

NEWLY EMERGED

11561

16°- 02° E

12° S strong impulsive flare and magnetic eruption+ filament eruption SEP- 01 20: 43 SAGITT. SEP 02- 03

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T.EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

NEWLY EMERGED

11562

52°- 38° E

17° S

 

SEP- 01

 

 

 

 

FILAMENTS >

filament eruption near AR11562 and new CH (432?)

 

NEWLY EMERGED

11563

70°- 56° E

26° S

            20120831/ 22:02 UTC    

REMARKS>

 

 

 

HIGHER than > 10 MEV PROTON FLUX AFTER THE ERUPTION:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

* CONF= magnetic configuration

a= alpha

b= beta

g= gamma

d= delta

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                     

SATELLITE IMAGES

20120901

 

ARRIVAL (estimated):

  TYPE II and IV RADIO EMISSIONS

 

(6) SDO /AIA blue

GOES- Solar X - ray Flux

 

ACTIVE REGION:

CME at:

20120831/ 22:55 UTC 20120901/ 04:39 UTC 20120831/ 23:45 UTC 20120831/ 19:47 UTC   20120831/ 20:02 UTC

 

AR 11562

20: 43 UTC  

 

INTERNAL NUMBER

74/ 12

 

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

52°- 38° E

17° S

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

impulsive flare assoc. with filament eruption C 8  
PROPERTIES/ POLARITY unknown

(1) STEREO-Behind ".

(1) STEREO-Ahead

(3) SoHO- LASCO C3

(4) SDO /AIA blue.

  (5) SDO /AIA blue.

 

a strong and very impressive impulsive flare (magnetic explosion) occured on Aug 31 in newly emerged AR 11562 after 19:45 UTC (images 1,2 4, 5) . The explosion spread over to the aneighbored filament and affected even AR 1156. The event was con tinued and ended with intensive magnetic loops lining up one after another at 22:00 UTC. (6)

The C 8 class x ray burst at 20: 43 UTC as noticed in the USAF report below does NOT REFLECT the full strength of that event including its CME, as the filament component of the event is -differently to the primary explosion NOT A NUCLEAR REACTION ( but just emerges from gases under below coronal holes set free with that event) . Thuss this associated filament eruption DOES NOT PRODUCE gamma rays ( measured in some distance as x- rays) , but emmits the same sun plasma ( and more even than the explosion itself) . The important geoeffective result of this event however was a slow but large, wide and fully HALO CME (3)- one of the largest earthbound CMEs- observed during this Solar cycle. Luckily at all, its main core will miss the earth, while its flancs might trigger a wider range of effects on thier arrival estimated on SEP 2-3. The type of activity including just one or two corresponding active regions , those sometimes then perform on minor or major eruption after anothercoulöd be opbserved sice summer 2012 and is part of theactivity phases in this year 2012 with the maximum solar activity within the regular 11 years sun spot cycle. The eruption triggered even a very seldom and rare PROTON EMISSION/ STORM )(this is s sign of the force behind that eruption . perharps comparable as if a volcano on earth would thrown stones wide into the universe). Proton storms are known to have not much immidiate effects but rather trigger and long lasting course of events ( compare to last proton stream until July - 27 2012)

 

 

 

 

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:

 

h

 

 

2012

NOAA/ RSGA

 

SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Regions 1560 (N04E09), 1563 (S24E58) and newly numbered 1564 (S13E70) each produced low-level C flares during the period. Region 1564 rotated around the east limb overnight and is considered a Dao-beta spot group. Region 1560 grew in areal coverage and became more magnetically complex with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. A C8 flare associated with a large filament eruption near S06E20 occurred at 31/2043Z associated with Type II (estimated speed 515 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. A CME first became visible on SDO/AIA 304 imagery at approximately 1945Z. Further evaluation will be conducted as SOHO LASCO imagery becomes available.

 

CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                             

LAST CME ARRIVALS:

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

DATE OF LAST CME ARRIVAL >

20120824

NUMBER >

73/12 ( filament eruption) STRENGTH > - 135 nT

CURRENTLY ACTIVE CMEs >

CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs

00

TOTAL >

00

 

REMARKS>

 

MULTIPLE CME (CLUSTERS)

NONE >> ERUPTION DAY >          

EXTERNAL SOURCES( CME):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NASA/ ACE: CME and SOLAR WIND/Analysis system>

ACE/ EPAM: ELECTRONS

ACE/SIS: PROTONS

RU/ MOSCOW: NEUTRONS

 

NASA/ISWA/animation of interplanetary CME evolution a.m.o.

 

NASA ARCHIVES>

NASA/ NOAA- PROTON FLUX/ arch

GOES/ 3 days X-RAY FLUX

GOES/ ELECTRONS

GOEShp ( MAG)

 

VARIOUS>

 

 

 

Magn complexity/ particle acceleration

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED EVENT >>

CME 20120824

int. CME Nr. >>

73/12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGOUND OR : "LATENCY"= EARTHQUAKES ABOVE M 6.0 ARE POSSIBLE BUT RATHER UNLIKELY

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

75°- 105° W

LOW-MEDIUM

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

(THUNDER-) STORMS

CENTRAL AMERICA & USA

< VOLCANISM/ QUAKES >

N- AMERICA >< PACIFIC.

 

ELECTRON STORM

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

CALIFORNIA

< GEOGRAPHIC >

CENTR- A ><COCOS

 

31 AUGUST - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

EASTERN PACIFIC

These forcasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

AMERICA >< JUAN DE FUCA

 

M 5.5- > 7.0

1-3

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

SOUTH AMERICA WEST

NASCA ><PACIFIC

 

01 SEPTEMBER - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS?

SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5- > 7.0

1-3

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

15° W - 115° E

EURASIA- WEST /EAST

 

02 SEPTEMBER - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

CENTRAL ATLANTIC

CENTRAL ATLANTIC

 

M 5.5- 6.5

1-2 (preliminary)

 

 

 

 

 

JAPAN- PHILIPPINES

*REGIONS> see definition below

INDO AUS >< PACIFIC

 

 

 

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:

USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES>    

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS >

LATENCY EFFECTS ON EQ

WIDE CME DISTRIBUTION

 

QUIET

 

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REPORTS /LINKS

 

MINOR STORM

 

 

ELECTRON STORM

NONE

NONE

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

MAJOR STORM

 

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE

NONE

 

 

 

 

S. RADIATION STORM

NONE

R 1

 

 

 

 

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 

>> INTERNAL REMARKS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

AUGUST

 

DAY:

30

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

MAP:

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 6.6 - JAN MAYEN ISLAND REGION - 2012-08-30 13:43:23 UTC

 

EMSC

 

 

 

 

 

 

EARTHQUAKES TODAY

REPORTS:

NAME of REGION

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME

MAGNITUDE

DEPTH

CATHEGORY

GOOGLE EARTH:

 

 

JAN MAYEN ISLAND REGION 71.52 N ; 10.61 W 2012-08-30 13:43:23 UTC M 6.6

2 km

 

---

 

                 

click here to get to my map with significant Earthquake activities in EURASIA (2012):

 

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

 

 

 

 

 

click on region name to see epicenter maps:

EVENTS WITH PARTICULAR QUAKES EXCEEDING M 3.0:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EMSC

 

AFTERQUAKES/JAN MAYEN ISLAND REGION

AUGUST 30 -2012

QUAKES ABOVE M 2.0 :

01

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 5.3 - JAN MAYEN ISLAND REGION - 2012-08-30 13:51:05 UTC  

REGION OF CALIFORNIA (USGS)( at time of this update)

AUGUST 30 -2012

QUAKES ABOVE M 2.0 :

04

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.0 - GULF OF CALIFORNIA - 2012-08-30 22:51:45 UTC  
VIRGIN ISLANDS ( USGS)

AUGUST 30 -2012

QUAKES ABOVE M 2.0 :

11 HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.8 - VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION- 2012 -08- 30 15:53:52 UTC  

EASTERN TURKEY- near VAN- city

AUGUST 30 -2012

QUAKES ABOVE M 2.0 :

08

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.4 - EASTERN TURKEY - 2012-08-30 16:57:36 UTC  

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

AUGUST 30 -2012

QUAKES ABOVE M 2.0 :

09

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.3 - DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE - 2012-08-30 00:08:50 UTC

 

OTHER QUAKE SWARMS WITH MAGNITUDES > M 2.0 < M 3.0

NORTHERN ITALY: 02

WESTERN TURKEY: 06

 

 

CANARY ISLANDS/ EL HIERRO: 00

 

 

               

 

                 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

note: allthough CME impacts are regularly coincident at least with TEMPORARY volcano acticity increases, my time does not allow to introduce such

< stats

 

DETAILLED resp. "FINE TUNED"statistic reports as required to communicate this!. This section therefor can only refer to changes in "ALERT LEVELS" as published by GVP. Click on the buttons (right) to findat least more detailled internal reports >

maps >

 
REGION:
NAME/USGS datalink:
GEOGRAPHIC POSITION: LAT. / LONG.
VOLCANO NUMBER
VOLCANO TYPE
WEBCAM DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL MAP: LOCAL SURVEY

 

ALEUTIANS

LITTLE SITKIN pos 51°57'0"N/ 178°32'35"E 1101-05 Stratovolcano Hi* LITTLE SITKIN-

AUG- 30- 2012

 

NorthernAm

GVP

 

Wikipedia:

                   
           

20120904

report by:

GVP

 

AVO reported that at approximately 1915 on 29 August a swarm of high-frequency earthquakes was detected at Little Sitkin. The anomalous seismic activity continued through the night, prompting AVO to raise the Aviation Color Code to Yellow and the Volcano Alert Level to Advisory. The rate of anomalous seismicity varied during 30-31 August; the two most active periods were during the morning of 30 August and at about 0400 on 31 August. The rate of earthquakes started to decline at around 0600 on 31 August, but remained elevated through 3 September. Little Sitkin is monitored by a four-station seismic network as well as satellite imagery.

 

                               

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

no tropical storm reported so far

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED:

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground.com

Hurricane Isaac

AUG- 20- 2012 NORTHERN ATLANTIC

50 MPH (decreasing)

91.3° W 

30.5 ° N

W OF NEW ORLEANS/ LOUSIANA

NW

 

 

wunderground.com Tropical Storm Kirk

AUG- 24- 2012

NORTHERN ATLANTIC

^ 60 MPH

48.3W   

25.9 ° N

APPR. 1700 KM NW of CAPE VERDE ILS/ 1200 KM SE of BERMUDA

WNW

   
wunderground.com Invest 98L AUG-28 EASTERN PACIFIC

^ 35 MPH

41.3° W 

13.9° N

APPR. 900 km W of CAP VERDE ISLANDS

W

   
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Ileana AUG- 25- 2012 EASTERN PACIFIC

^ 75 MPH

113.1° W 

19.1° N

APPR 500 km SW OF LA PAZ / GULF OF CALIFORNIA

NW

   
wunderground.com Tropical Depression Tembin AUG-18-2012 WESTERN PACIFIC

40 MPH (decreasing)

126.5° E

34.5 ° N

LANDFALL SOUTH COAST OF S- COREA

NNE

   
 

 

 

HEAT WAVES/ DROUGHTS

            20120830

report by:

.bbc.co.uk

 

 

Food prices jump will hit poor, World Bank warns

Global food prices have leapt by 10% in the month of July, raising fears of soaring prices for the planet's poorest, the World Bank has warned. The bank said that a US heatwave and drought in parts of Eastern Europe were partly to blame for the rising costs. The price of key grains such as corn, wheat and soybean saw the most dramatic increases, described by the World Bank president as "historic". The bank warned countries importing grains will be particularly vulnerable. ...read more...

 

ARCHEOLOGY

            20120830

report by:

.bbc.co.uk

 

DNA of girl from Denisova cave gives up genetic secrets.

The DNA of a cave girl who lived about 80,000 years ago has been analysed in remarkable detail. The picture of her genome is as accurate as that of modern day human genomes, and shows she had brown eyes, hair and skin. The cave dweller, a Denisovan, was a cousin of the Neanderthals. He thought it might belong to an early modern human, but the results came as a surprise.A Russian scientist sent a fragment of the bone from Siberia to a team led by Svante Paabo at the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology in Leipzig, Germany DNA analysis revealed a human who was neither a Neanderthal nor a modern human but the first of a new group of ancient humans.Dr Paabo said further investigation of changes in genes involved in connecting up the brain will be exciting to pursue. He told BBC News: "To me the most exciting thing is having a good genome from our very closest extinct relatives which we can now compare ourselves to. "It's a catalogue of what makes everyone on the planet unique compared with our closest extinct relatives." The most detailed genetic analysis yet of the Denisovans also confirms that they bred with the ancestors of some people alive today, the researchers said.....read more...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(GOES) Electron FLUX increased slightly to high level late on AUG- 27:

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2 - SOLAR

 

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

119

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

350-457

FLARES

C

11

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

127

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

^B 6.7

 

M

01

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

04

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

85- 115 nT

 

X

 

 

 

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

OVERALL SOLAR ACTIVITY >> :

MAJOR ACTIVITY INCREASE

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 

REMARKS/ CONF.*

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES /FLARES

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20120815

 

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

 

20120722

20120831

 

 

11548

faded

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

 

11553

17° - 31° W

21° S

HSX/ alpha type

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER

LATITUDE:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

 

11554

52°- 66° W

15° N

Dai /beta

 

15:10 TAURUS? UNCERTAIN  

CH 531

TRANSEQU

GROWING

AUG- 27

AUG- 27

?

 
 

11555

14°-06° E

08° N

Dao/ beta

AUG- 30

                     
 

11556

faded

 

Axx alpha

 

 

 

 

 

LAST- NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION >

AUG 19

N-P - CH- EXT

 

 

11557

faded

 

Bxo Beta

 

 

 

 

 

LAST- SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION >

AUG- 19

SP - CH- EXT

 

 

11558

47°- 33° E

17° N

Bxo/ beta

SEP- 01

 

 

 

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

   

 

 

11559

faded

 

Axx alpha type

 

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T.EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

NEWLY EMERGED

11560

37°- 23° E

03° N

Dao/ beta

SEP- 01

 

 

 

 

FILAMENTS >

 

 

REMARKS>

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

* CONF= magnetic configuration

a= alpha

b= beta

g= gamma

d= delta

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SATELLITE IMAGES

20120830

 

ARRIVAL (estimated):

UNCERTAIN TYPE II and IV RADIO EMISSIONS

 

 

GOES- Solar X - ray Flux

 

ACTIVE REGION:

CME at:

20120830/ 16:24 UTC 20120830/ 16:09 UTC   20120830/ 15:10 UTC    

 

AR 11554

15:10 no image available    

 

INTERNAL CME NR.: none yet  

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

52°- 66° W

15° N

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

impulsive flare    
PROPERTIES/ POLARITY unknown

(1) STEREO-Behind ".

(2) STEREO-Ahead

(3) SoHO- LASCO C3

(4) SDO /AIA comp.

  (5) SDO /AIA comp.

 

background X ray Flux: (plot above): X ray activity- standing for nuclear processes within the Sun`s corona- sharply and continuously increased today aftet being for a longer phase on a very low( A-C ) level.The current evolution extrapolited would make and background x ray level of C- M class likely soon.Due to the unusual low levels of the past week, the Sun very likely might produce also extraordinary strong flares and CMEs in the next days. Typical white stripes on SoHO CH 3 images indicate a MINOR beta radiation emission from the Sun. This electron flux has began to increase already on Aug 28 to defined high levels (see ISAF geophysical report below)

(4) SDO made an unsharp image of a beginning stronger impulsive flare with an associated CME at 15: 20 UTC, that might become geoeffective with the currently low solar wind speed . STEREO Ahead shows the begin of the CME after 16: UTC emerging from AR 11554 on the north- western quadrant. STEREO Behind shows this event being a minor CME emittingafter 16 UTC , but mainly towards NORTHERN DIRECTION. The eruption`s x-ray burst caused a transmission loss /interference soon after which also occured on SoHo. SoHo had no image of the event yet at time of this update . This report will be updated tomorrow, when also the USAF report will be available

 

 

 

 

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:

 

h

 

 

2012

NOAA/ RSGA

 

SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. A region around the east limb produced an M1 flare at 1211Z along with multiple C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours. New Regions 1562 (S16E56) and 1563 (S25E71) were numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for moderate activity. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/

 

CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                             

LAST CME ARRIVALS

 

REMARKS OR VIDEOS:

 

 

CURRENTLY ACTIVE CMEs:

 

 

 

DATE OF LAST CME ARRIVAL >

20120824

 

 

CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs

00

TOTAL >

00

 

     

ERUPTION DAY >

         

NUMBER >

73/12

 

 

CMEs BY TRACKING NRS.>

   

 

 

 

STRENGTH >

- 135 nT

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

   

 

 

 

LIKELY EFFECTIVE UNTIL >

 

 

ESTIMATED ARRIVALS

       

 

ARRIVED ON:

   

EXTERNAL SOURCES( CME):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NASA/ ACE: CME and SOLAR WIND/Analysis system>

ACE/ EPAM: ELECTRONS

ACE/SIS: PROTONS

RU/ MOSCOW: NEUTRONS

 

NASA/ISWA/animation of interplanetary CME evolution a.m.o.

 

NASA ARCHIVES>

NASA/ NOAA- PROTON FLUX/ arch

GOES/ 3 days X-RAY FLUX

GOES/ ELECTRONS

GOEShp ( MAG)

 

VARIOUS>

 

 

 

Magn complexity/ particle acceleration

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED EVENT >>

CME 20120824

int. CME Nr. >>

73/12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGOUND OR : "LATENCY"= EARTHQUAKES ABOVE M 6.0 ARE POSSIBLE BUT RATHER UNLIKELY

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

75°- 105° W

LOW-MEDIUM

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

(THUNDER-) STORMS

CENTRAL AMERICA & USA

< VOLCANISM/ QUAKES >

N- AMERICA >< PACIFIC.

 

LOW

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

CALIFORNIA

< GEOGRAPHIC >

CENTR- A ><COCOS

 

30 AUGUST - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

EASTERN PACIFIC

These forcasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

AMERICA >< JUAN DE FUCA

 

M 5.5- 6.5

1-2

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

SOUTH AMERICA WEST

NASCA ><PACIFIC

 

31 AUGUST - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS?

SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5- 6.0

1-2

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

15° W - 115° E

EURASIA- WEST /EAST

 

01 SEPTEMBER - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

CENTRAL ATLANTIC

CENTRAL ATLANTIC

 

M 5.5- 6.5

1-2 (preliminary)

 

 

 

 

 

JAPAN- PHILIPPINES

*REGIONS> see definition below

INDO AUS >< PACIFIC

 

 

 

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:

USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES>    

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS >

LATENCY EFFECTS ON EQ

WIDE CME DISTRIBUTION

 

QUIET

 

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Geomagnetic activity was at mostly quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REPORTS /LINKS

 

MINOR STORM

 

 

ELECTRON STORM

NONE

NONE

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

MAJOR STORM

 

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE

NONE

 

 

 

 

S. RADIATION STORM

R 1

NONE

 

 

 

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 

INTERNAL REMARKS

SOLAR ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY LIKELY TO INCREASE IN THE COMING DAYS°

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

AUGUST

 

DAY:

29

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

MAP:

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.5 - NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN - 2012-08-29 19:05:11 UTC

 

EMSC

 

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

 

 

 

 

 

click on region name to see epicenter maps:

EVENTS WITH PARTICULAR QUAKES EXCEEDING M 3.0:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EMSC

 

AFTERQUAKES/ EL SALVADOR ( at time of update)

AUGUST 29 -2012

QUAKES ABOVE M 2.0 :

  HIGHEST MAGNITUDE:    

REGION OF CALIFORNIA (USGS)( at time of this update)

AUGUST 29 -2012

QUAKES ABOVE M 2.0 :

  HIGHEST MAGNITUDE:    

EASTERN TURKEY- near VAN- city

AUGUST 29 -2012

QUAKES ABOVE M 2.0 :

  HIGHEST MAGNITUDE:    

EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ WESTERN TURKEY

AUGUST 29 -2012

QUAKES ABOVE M 2.0 :

  HIGHEST MAGNITUDE:  

 

OTHER QUAKE SWARMS WITH MAGNITUDES > M 2.0 < M 3.0

NORTHERN ITALY:

 

 

 

CANARY ISLANDS/ EL HIERRO:

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

 

               

 

EARTHQUAKE SWATM CALIFORNIA REGION( SAN ANDREAS FAULT                

 

Earthquake swarms prompt emergency declaration in Brawley

Updated: New earthquake hits Orange County Wednesday afternoon

Earthquake swarms continued Wednesday in Imperial County as the city of Brawley declared an emergency to deal with the damage.. The swarm that began Sunday morning showed signs of slowing down Wednesday, with fewer quakes reported by the U.S. Geological Survey than on recent days. The magnitude of the quakes is also declining.. There was scattered damage around Brawley, but officials have not yet compiled a full estimate of the costs. The Brawley City Council on Tuesday declared a local emergency, according to the Imperial Valley Press. PHOTOS: Earthquake swarm damages Imperial County buildings More than 400 earthquakes greater than magnitude 1.0 have been recorded in Imperial County since Saturday evening, said U.S. Geological Survey geophysicist Elizabeth Cochran. The largest were a 5.3 and a 5.5 about midday Sunday. Scientists say the reason is not fully understood, but there is a clue: Earthquake faults work much differently south of the Salton Sea than they do closer to Los Angeles. Take, for instance, the San Andreas fault as it runs through Los Angeles County. It’s a fault where, generally speaking, two plates of the Earth’s crust are grinding past each other. The Pacific plate is moving to the northwest, while the North American plate is pushing to the southeast.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES

note: this report does NOT represent all currently global active volcanoes!

< internal >

2012

report by:

GVP  

Smithsonian / USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report

22 August-28 August 2012

New Activity/Unrest: | Havre Seamount, SW Pacific | Grozny Group, Iturup Island | Soputan, Sulawesi |Soufrière Hills, Montserrat | Tangkubanparahu, Western Java (Indonesia) | Tungurahua, Ecuador 
Ongoing Activity: | Batu Tara, Komba Island (Indonesia) | Cleveland, Chuginadak Island | Fuego, Guatemala | Galeras, Colombia | Karymsky, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) | Kilauea, Hawaii (USA) | Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia | Popocatépetl, México | Sakura-jima, Kyushu | Santa María, Guatemala | Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia)

This page is updated on Wednesdays. Please see the GVP Home Page for news of the latest significant activity.

 
REGION:
NAME/USGS datalink:
GEOGRAPHIC POSITION: LAT. / LONG.
VOLCANO NUMBER
VOLCANO TYPE
WEBCAM DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL MAP: LOCAL SURVEY

 

ECUADOR

           

 

 

GVP

 

Wikipedia:

                   
             

20120814

report by:

GVP

 

 

 

                               

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

no tropical storm reported so far

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED:

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground.com

Hurricane Isaac

AUG- 20- 2012 NORTHERN ATLANTIC

^ 80 MPH

90.5°W 

29.2 ° N

LANDFALL NEAR NEW ORLEANS/ LOUSIANA ( 2 PM local time)

WNW

 

 

wunderground.com Tropical Storm Kirk

AUG- 24- 2012

NORTHERN ATLANTIC

45 MPH

45.3° W   

24.3 ° N

APPR. 1500 KM NW of CAPE VERDE ILS:

WNW

   
wunderground.com Invest 98L AUG-28 EASTERN PACIFIC

30 MPH

32.7° W

11.9° N

APPR. 420 km SW of CAP VERDE ISLANDS

W

   
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Ileana AUG- 25- 2012 EASTERN PACIFIC

^ 65 MPH

111.8° W

17.6° N

APPR 400 km SWW OF MANZANILLO/ MEXICO

NW

   
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Bolaven AUG- 19- 2012 WESTERN PACIFIC

65 MPH (decreasing)

124.7° E 

34.8 ° N

APPR.150 km EAST OF SOUTH COREA

N

   
wunderground.com Tropical Depression Tembin AUG-18-2012 WESTERN PACIFIC

40 MPH (decreasing)

126.2° E 

41.6 ° N

APPR. 200 KM SSE of SHANGHAI/ CHINA

NNE

 

 

 

 

 

METHEORITES

            20120819

report by:

tecca.com

 

 

Meteor explodes over England with violent force

The extraterrestrial explosion occurred just over South Wales in Southwest Great Britain. The meteor rocked windows and set off car alarms, creating a sonic boom effect. Explained one witness, prior to the detonation "It had a heat trail behind, it was orange and white and very bright, and also seemed very close." No one was hurt. ...read more...

 

                                 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2 - SOLAR

 

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

95

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

430-546

FLARES

C

03

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

118

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 3.4

 

M

 

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

04

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

80- 105 nT

 

X

 

 

 

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

OVERALL SOLAR ACTIVITY >> :

INCREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 

REMARKS/ CONF.*

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES /FLARES

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20120815

 

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

 

20120722

20120831

 

REEMERGED>

11548

60° - 74° W

15° N

   

 

 

 

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

 

11552

faded

 

HSX alpha

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER

LATITUDE:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

 

11553

05° - 19° W

21° S

 

 

       

CH 531

TRANSEQU

GROWING

AUG- 27

AUG- 27

?

 
 

11554

42°- 56° W

15° N

LARGEST AR/ CRITICAL

 

       

CH 530

TRANSEQU. CLOSED        
 

11555

30°- 16° E

08° N

Dao/ beta

AUG- 30

 

 

 

 

LAST- NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION >

AUG 19

N-P - CH- EXT

 

 

11556

       

 

 

 

 

LAST- SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION >

AUG- 19

SP - CH- EXT

 

 

11557

27°- 13° E

17° N

 

AUG- 30

 

 

 

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

decreasing

CH 530

 

 

11558

57°- 43° E

17° N

 

SEP- 01

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T.EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

NEWLY EMERGED

11559

65° - 51° E

18° N

 

SEP- 02

 

 

 

 

FILAMENTS >

 

 

REMARKS>

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

* CONF= magnetic configuration

a= alpha

b= beta

g= gamma

d= delta

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:

 

h

 

 

2012

NOAA/ RSGA

 

SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the period was a C4 at 29/1958Z from a region just around the southeast limb. Region 1560 (N04E36) a Dao-beta type group was numbered today. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

 

CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                             

LAST CME ARRIVALS

 

REMARKS OR VIDEOS:

 

 

CURRENTLY ACTIVE CMEs:

 

 

 

DATE OF LAST CME ARRIVAL >

20120824

 

 

CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs

00

TOTAL >

00

 

     

ERUPTION DAY >

         

NUMBER >

73/12

 

 

CMEs BY TRACKING NRS.>

   

 

 

 

STRENGTH >

- 135 nT

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

   

 

 

 

LIKELY EFFECTIVE UNTIL >

 

 

ESTIMATED ARRIVALS

       

 

ARRIVED ON:

   

EXTERNAL SOURCES( CME):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NASA/ ACE: CME and SOLAR WIND/Analysis system>

ACE/ EPAM: ELECTRONS

ACE/SIS: PROTONS

RU/ MOSCOW: NEUTRONS

 

NASA/ISWA/animation of interplanetary CME evolution a.m.o.

 

NASA ARCHIVES>

NASA/ NOAA- PROTON FLUX/ arch

GOES/ 3 days X-RAY FLUX

GOES/ ELECTRONS

GOEShp ( MAG)

 

VARIOUS>

 

 

 

Magn complexity/ particle acceleration

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED EVENT >>

CME 20120824

int. CME Nr. >>

73/12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGOUND OR : "LATENCY"= EARTHQUAKES ABOVE M 6.0 ARE POSSIBLE BUT RATHER UNLIKELY

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

75°- 105° W

LOW-MEDIUM

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

(THUNDER-) STORMS

CENTRAL AMERICA & USA

< VOLCANISM/ QUAKES >

N- AMERICA >< PACIFIC.

 

DECREASING

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

CALIFORNIA

< GEOGRAPHIC >

CENTR- A ><COCOS

 

29 AUGUST - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

EASTERN PACIFIC

These forcasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

AMERICA >< JUAN DE FUCA

 

M 5.5- 7.0

2-3

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

SOUTH AMERICA WEST

NASCA ><PACIFIC

 

30 AUGUST - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS?

SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5- 6.5

1-2

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

15° W - 115° E

EURASIA- WEST /EAST

 

31 AUGUST - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

CENTRAL ATLANTIC

CENTRAL ATLANTIC

 

M 5.5- 6.5

1-2 (preliminary)

 

 

 

 

 

JAPAN- PHILIPPINES

*REGIONS> see definition below

INDO AUS >< PACIFIC

 

 

 

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:

USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES>    

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS >

LATENCY EFFECTS ON EQ

WIDE CME DISTRIBUTION

 

QUIET

 

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REPORTS /LINKS

 

MINOR STORM

 

 

ELECTRON STORM

NONE

NONE

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

MAJOR STORM

 

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE

NONE

 

 

 

 

S. RADIATION STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

AUGUST

 

DAY:

28

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

MAP:

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.2 - OFF THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR - 2012-08-28 08:53:38 UTC

 

EMSC

 

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

 

 

 

 

 

click on region name to see epicenter maps:

EVENTS WITH PARTICULAR QUAKES EXCEEDING M 3.0:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EMSC

 

AFTERQUAKES/ EL SALVADOR ( at time of update)

AUGUST 28 -2012

QUAKES ABOVE M 2.0 :

04

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 5.4 - OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR - 2012-08-28 06:08:16 UTC  

REGION OF CALIFORNIA (USGS)( at time of this update)

AUGUST 28 -2012

QUAKES ABOVE M 2.0 :

09

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.4 - SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA - 2012-08-28 02:01:20 UTC  
DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

AUGUST 28 -2012

QUAKES ABOVE M 2.0 :

14

  M 3.5 - DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE - 2012-08-28 15:08:17 UTC  

VIRGIN ISLANDS

AUGUST 28 -2012

QUAKES ABOVE M 2.0 :

20

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.2 - VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION- 2012- 08- 28 14:03:53 UTC  

OTHER QUAKE SWARMS WITH MAGNITUDES > M 2.0 < M 3.0

NORTHERN ITALY: 02

WESTERN TURKEY: 06

EASTERN TURKEY- near VAN: :02

CANARY ISLANDS/ EL HIERRO:

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

note: allthough CME impacts are regularly coincident at least with TEMPORARY volcano acticity increases, my time does not allow to introduce such

< stats

 

DETAILLED resp. "FINE TUNED"statistic reports as required to communicate this!. This section therefor can only refer to changes in "ALERT LEVELS" as published by GVP. Click on the buttons (right) to findat least more detailled internal reports >

maps >

 
ANTARCTICA
NAME/USGS datalink:
GEOGRAPHIC POSITION: LAT. / LONG.
VOLCANO NUMBER
VOLCANO TYPE
WEBCAM DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL MAP: LOCAL SURVEY

 

HODSON 56°42'0"S/ 27°9'0"W 1900-11= Stratovolcano Ho* HODSON
none

AUG- 28- 2012

 

SOUTHAMS

GVP

 

                   
           

20120814

report by:

/modis.gsfc.nasa

 

September 2, 2012 - Plume from Mount Hodson, Visokoi Island, South Sandwich Islands

In late August 2012, a large volcanic plume rose from the Mount Hodson volcano on remote Visokoi Island, interacting with clouds overhead to create a broad rippling band easily visible from space. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard NASA’s Terra satellite captured this true-color image on August 28. The plume from Mount Hodson can be seen rising just to the northwest of center and curving in an arc to the northeast. Gas and aerosols – tiny particles of solids and liquids – emitted at a low level can provide a nucleus for the formation of water droplets, and then clouds...read more...

 

                               
REGION:
NAME/USGS datalink:
GEOGRAPHIC POSITION: LAT. / LONG.
VOLCANO NUMBER
VOLCANO TYPE
WEBCAM DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL MAP: LOCAL SURVEY

 

PERU

EL MISTI 16°17'40"S/ 71°24'32"W 1504-01= Stratovolcano Hi* EL MISTI

none

no report yet by GVP

yellow

SOUTHAMN

GVP

 

Wikipedia:

                   
           

20120828

report by:

peruthisweek

 

Peru’s El Misti Volcano is active, says IGP

Peruvian geologists have revealed that recent activity at El Misti signal that the volcano is active. Last Thursday researchers at the Geophysical Institute of Peru (IGP) found that El Misti – located 17km outside the city of Arequipa – had recently recorded the highest amount of seismic activity than in the past five years. Engineer Orlando Macedo told El Comercio that 224 earthquakes were registered at El Misti - an event known as an earthquake swarm - and which signaled that the volcano was no longer dormant. El Misti, he said, experienced 143 volcano tectonic earthquakes, which were caused by the fracture of rock inside the volcano, due to sudden changes in pressure and temperature. Despite the recent increase in activity, the IGP said there were still no conditions for an eruption to occur at El Misti, which last erupted sometime between 1450 and 1470. For an eruption to happen, Macedo said, El Misti would have to experience continued earthquakes, which “would have to occur after long-term movements of magma, and causing these earthquakes known as tremors, with lava....read more...

 

                               

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

note: allthough CME impacts are regularly coincident at least with TEMPORARY volcano acticity increases, my time does not allow to introduce such

< stats

 

DETAILLED resp. "FINE TUNED"statistic reports as required to communicate this!. This section therefor can only refer to changes in "ALERT LEVELS" as published by GVP. Click on the buttons (right) to findat least more detailled internal reports >

maps >

 
REGION:
NAME/USGS datalink:
GEOGRAPHIC POSITION: LAT. / LONG.
VOLCANO NUMBER
VOLCANO TYPE
WEBCAM DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL MAP: LOCAL SURVEY

 

KAMCHATKA PENINS.
55°58'42"N/ 160°35'12"E
1000-25=
Stratovolcano
Hi*
none

SEP- 01- 2012

 

Kamchatka

KVERT

 

Wikipedia:

                   
           

20120814

report by:

GVP

 

 

Height of ash plume (feet/km) ASL and how determined: 0 ft/ km - unknown Distance of ash plume from the volcano (mi/km): 93.23 mi/150 km Direction of ash plume or ash cloud drift from the volcano: North-East Start time of explosion and how determined: 20120901/1916Z - Seismic Time and method of observation: 20120901/2032Z - MTSAT Duration of eruption (or indicate eruption is continuing): eruption is continuing

 

                               

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

no tropical storm reported so far

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED:

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground.com

Tropical Storm Isaac

AUG- 20- 2012 NORTHERN ATLANTIC

^ 70 MPH

87.0° W

27.1 ° N

APPR.- 220 KM SE OF NEW ORLEANS/ LOUSIANA

NW

 

 

wunderground.com Invest 97L

AUG- 24- 2012

NORTHERN ATLANTIC

35 MPH

42.3°W 

20.8 ° N

APPR. 1200 KM NEE of WEST INDIES

WNW

   
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Ileana AUG- 25- 2012 EASTERN PACIFIC

30 MPH

  107.7° W

15.5° N

APPR 300 km SE OF MANZANILLO/ MEXICO

WNW

   
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Bolaven AUG- 19- 2012 WESTERN PACIFIC

65 MPH (decreasing)

124.7° E 

34.8 ° N

APPR.150 km EAST OF SOUTH COREA

N

 

 

wunderground.com Tropical Depression Tembin AUG-18-2012 WESTERN PACIFIC

60 MPH (decreasing)

121.9° E 

23.0 ° N

APPR. 10 km/ CLOSE TO THE COAST OF S- TAIWAN

NE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2 - SOLAR

 

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

73

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

418-558

FLARES

C

 

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

111

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 2.2

 

M

 

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

04

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

80- 102 nT

 

X

 

 

 

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

OVERALL SOLAR ACTIVITY >> :

INCREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 

REMARKS/ CONF.*

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES /FLARES

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20120815

 

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

 

20120722

20120831

 

REEMERGED>

11548

60° - 74° W

15° N

   

 

 

 

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

 

11552

faded

 

HSX alpha type

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER

LATITUDE:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

 

11553

05° - 19° W

21° S

 

 

       

CH 531

TRANSEQU

GROWING

AUG- 27

AUG- 27

?

 
 

11554

42°- 56° W

15° N

LARGEST AR/ CRITICAL

 

       

CH 530

TRANSEQU. CLOSED        
 

11555

30°- 16° E

08° N

Dao/ beta

AUG- 30

 

 

 

 

LAST- NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION >

AUG 19

N-P - CH- EXT

 

 

11556

       

 

 

 

 

LAST- SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION >

AUG- 19

SP - CH- EXT

 

 

11557

27°- 13° E

17° N

 

AUG- 30

 

 

 

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

decreasing

CH 530

 

 

11558

57°- 43° E

17° N

 

SEP- 01

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T.EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

NEWLY EMERGED

11559

65° - 51° E

18° N

 

SEP- 02

 

 

 

 

FILAMENTS >

 

 

REMARKS>

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

* CONF= magnetic configuration

a= alpha

b= beta

g= gamma

d= delta

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:

 

h

 

 

2012

NOAA/ RSGA

 

SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1558 (N13E65) produced the largest flare of the period, a B6/Sf at 28/0307Z. Region 1559 (N18E63) an Axx-alpha type group was numbered today. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

 

CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                             

LAST CME ARRIVALS

 

REMARKS OR VIDEOS:

 

 

CURRENTLY ACTIVE CMEs:

 

 

 

DATE OF LAST CME ARRIVAL >

20120824

 

 

CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs

00

TOTAL >

00

 

     

ERUPTION DAY >

         

NUMBER >

73/12

 

 

CMEs BY TRACKING NRS.>

   

 

 

 

STRENGTH >

- 135 nT

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

   

 

 

 

LIKELY EFFECTIVE UNTIL >

 

 

ESTIMATED ARRIVALS

       

 

ARRIVED ON:

   

EXTERNAL SOURCES( CME):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NASA/ ACE: CME and SOLAR WIND/Analysis system>

ACE/ EPAM: ELECTRONS

ACE/SIS: PROTONS

RU/ MOSCOW: NEUTRONS

 

NASA/ISWA/animation of interplanetary CME evolution a.m.o.

 

NASA ARCHIVES>

NASA/ NOAA- PROTON FLUX/ arch

GOES/ 3 days X-RAY FLUX

GOES/ ELECTRONS

GOEShp ( MAG)

 

VARIOUS>

 

 

 

Magn complexity/ particle acceleration

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED EVENT >>

CME 20120824

int. CME Nr. >>

73/12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGOUND OR : "LATENCY"= EARTHQUAKES ABOVE M 6.0 ARE POSSIBLE BUT RATHER UNLIKELY

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

75°- 105° W

LOW-MEDIUM

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

(THUNDER-) STORMS

CENTRAL AMERICA & USA

< VOLCANISM/ QUAKES >

N- AMERICA >< PACIFIC.

 

DECREASING

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

CALIFORNIA

< GEOGRAPHIC >

CENTR- A ><COCOS

 

28 AUGUST - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

EASTERN PACIFIC

These forcasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

AMERICA >< JUAN DE FUCA

 

M 5.5- 7.0

2-3

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

SOUTH AMERICA WEST

NASCA ><PACIFIC

 

29 AUGUST - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS?

SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5- 7.0

2-3

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

15° W - 115° E

EURASIA- WEST /EAST

 

30 AUGUST - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

CENTRAL ATLANTIC

CENTRAL ATLANTIC

 

M 5.5- 6.5

1-2 (preliminary)

 

 

 

 

 

JAPAN- PHILIPPINES

*REGIONS> see definition below

INDO AUS >< PACIFIC

 

 

 

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:

USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES>   CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS >

LATENCY EFFECTS ON EQ

WIDE CME DISTRIBUTION

 

QUIET

 

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a slight chance for moderate activity for the next three days (29-31 August).

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REPORTS /LINKS

 

MINOR STORM

 

 

ELECTRON STORM

NONE

NONE

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

MAJOR STORM

 

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE

NONE

 

 

 

 

S. RADIATION STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 

>> INTERNAL REMARKS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

AUGUST

 

DAY:

27

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

MAP:

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 7.3 - OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR - 2012-08-27 04:37:23 UTC

 

EMSC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EARTHQUAKES TODAY

REPORTS:

NAME of REGION

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME

MAGNITUDE

DEPTH

CATHEGORY

GOOGLE EARTH:

 

 

OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR

12.67 N ; 88.66 W

2012-08-27 04:37:23 UTC M 7.3

14 km

 

---

 

                 
 

 

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

 

 

 

 

 

click on region name to see epicenter maps:

EVENTS WITH PARTICULAR QUAKES EXCEEDING M 3.0:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EMSC

 

AFTERQUAKES/ EL SALVADOR ( at time of update)

AUGUST 27 -2012

QUAKES ABOVE M 2.0 :

07

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 5.3 - OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR - 2012-08-27 05:38:07 UTC  

REGION OF CALIFORNIA (USGS)( at time of this update)

AUGUST 27 -2012

QUAKES ABOVE M 2.0 :

25! HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 5.2 - GULF OF CALIFORNIA -201- 8- 27 05:23:22 UTC  
DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

AUGUST 27 -2012

QUAKES ABOVE M 2.0 :

15

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.4 - DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE - 2012-08-27 21:33:02 UTC  

VIRGIN ISLANDS

AUGUST 27 -2012

QUAKES ABOVE M 2.0 :

14

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.4 - VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION- 2012 -08- 27 16:39:42 UTC  

EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ WESTERN TURKEY

AUGUST 27 -2012

QUAKES ABOVE M 2.0 :

06

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.1 - WESTERN TURKEY - 2012-08-27 08:45:09 UTC

 

OTHER QUAKE SWARMS WITH MAGNITUDES > M 2.0 < M 3.0

NORTHERN ITALY: 02

 

EASTERN TURKEY- near VAN: :02

CANARY ISLANDS/ EL HIERRO:

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

 

             

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

no tropical storm reported so far

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED:

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground.com

Tropical Storm Isaac

AUG- 20- 2012 NORTHERN ATLANTIC

^ 65 MPH

83.5° W  

24.8 ° N

APPR. 150 KM NW OF HAVANNA-- 650 KM SE OF LOUSIANA

WNW

 

 

wunderground.com Invest 97L

AUG- 24- 2012

NORTHERN ATLANTIC

35 MPH

37.5° W

18.6 ° N

APPR. 650 KM NWW OF CAPE VERDE ISLANDS

WNW

   
wunderground.com Invest 97E AUG- 25- 2012 EASTERN PACIFIC

30 MPH

102.7° W

13.3° N

APPR 280 km SE OF ACAPULCO/ MEXICO

NW

   
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Bolaven AUG- 19- 2012 WESTERN PACIFIC

110 MPH (decreasing)

126.8° E 

28.6 ° N

APPR. 400 km S OF SOUTH COREA/ 300 km SE of JAPAN

NW

 

 

wunderground.com Tropical Depression Tembin AUG-18-2012 WESTERN PACIFIC

90 MPH (decreasing)

118.1° E

20.5 ° N

LESS THAN 80 km E OF TAIWAN

E

 

 

 

20120827/ 07 UTC: A major M 7.3 seaquake occured this morning OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST OF EL SALVADOR / Central America and triggered a minor TSUNAMI. The Tsunami alert was MEANWHILE CANCELLED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2 - SOLAR

 

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

85

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

462-712

FLARES

C

 

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

111

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 2.3

 

M

 

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

06

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

67- 105 nT

 

X

 

 

 

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

OVERALL SOLAR ACTIVITY >> :

INCREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 

REMARKS/ CONF.*

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES /FLARES

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20120815

 

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

 

20120722

20120831

 

 

11546

46 °- 60° W

16° N

 

 

 

 

 

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

 

11548

33° - 47° W

19° N

   

 

 

 

 

NUMBER

LATITUDE:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

REEMERGED>

11551

   

faded

 

       

CH 530

TRANSEQU. CLOSING AUG- 17- 2012

AUG 22- 23

RECURR.

 
 

11552

22° - 36° W

18° S

   

 

 

 

 

LAST- NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION >

AUG 19

N-P - CH- EXT

 

 

11553

22 - 08° E

21° S

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST- SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION >

AUG- 19

SP - CH- EXT

 

 

11554

14°- 28° W

15° N

LARGEST AR/ CRITICAL

 

 

 

 

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

- 682 km/ s

CH 530

 

 

11555

57°- 43° E

08° N

Dao/ beta

AUG- 30

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T.EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

 

         

 

 

 

 

FILAMENTS >

 

 

REMARKS>

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

* CONF= magnetic configuration

a= alpha

b= beta

g= gamma

d= delta

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:

 

h

 

 

2012

NOAA/ RSGA

 

SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1558 (N18E78) produced the largest flare of the period, a B9 at 27/0821Z. Three new regions were numbered: Region 1556 (S12W79) an Axx-alpha type group; Region 1557 (N17E38) a Bxo-beta type group; and Region 1558 a Bxo-beta type group. The remaining numbered regions were stable and quiet. Several CMEs were observed however none appear to be Earth-directed.

 

CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                             

LAST CME ARRIVALS

 

REMARKS OR VIDEOS:

 

 

CURRENTLY ACTIVE CMEs:

 

 

 

DATE OF LAST CME ARRIVAL >

20120824

 

 

CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs

00

TOTAL >

00

 

     

ERUPTION DAY >

         

NUMBER >

73/12

 

 

CMEs BY TRACKING NRS.>

   

 

 

 

STRENGTH >

- 135 nT

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

   

 

 

 

LIKELY EFFECTIVE UNTIL >

 

 

ESTIMATED ARRIVALS

       

 

ARRIVED ON:

   

EXTERNAL SOURCES( CME):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NASA/ ACE: CME and SOLAR WIND/Analysis system>

ACE/ EPAM: ELECTRONS

ACE/SIS: PROTONS

RU/ MOSCOW: NEUTRONS

 

NASA/ISWA/animation of interplanetary CME evolution a.m.o.

 

NASA ARCHIVES>

NASA/ NOAA- PROTON FLUX/ arch

GOES/ 3 days X-RAY FLUX

GOES/ ELECTRONS

GOEShp ( MAG)

 

VARIOUS>

 

 

 

Magn complexity/ particle acceleration

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED EVENT >>

CME 20120824

int. CME Nr. >>

73/12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGOUND OR : "LATENCY"= EARTHQUAKES ABOVE M 6.0 ARE POSSIBLE BUT RATHER UNLIKELY

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

75°- 105° W

LOW-MEDIUM

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

(THUNDER-) STORMS

CENTRAL AMERICA & USA

< VOLCANISM/ QUAKES >

N- AMERICA >< PACIFIC.

 

INCREASING

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

CALIFORNIA

< GEOGRAPHIC >

CENTR- A ><COCOS

 

27 AUGUST - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

EASTERN PACIFIC

These forcasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

AMERICA >< JUAN DE FUCA

 

M 5.5- 7.5

2-3

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

SOUTH AMERICA WEST

NASCA ><PACIFIC

 

28 AUGUST - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS?

SECONDARY REGIONS :

SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5- 7.0

2-3

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

15° W - 115° E

EURASIA- WEST /EAST

 

29 AUGUST - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

CENTRAL ATLANTIC

CENTRAL ATLANTIC

 

M 5.5- 7.0

2-3

 

 

 

 

 

JAPAN- PHILIPPINES

*REGIONS> see definition below

INDO AUS >< PACIFIC

 

 

 

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:

USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES>   CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS >

LATENCY EFFECTS ON EQ

WIDE CME DISTRIBUTION

 

QUIET

 

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REPORTS /LINKS

 

MINOR STORM

 

 

ELECTRON STORM

NONE

NONE

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

MAJOR STORM

 

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE

NONE

 

 

 

 

S. RADIATION STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 

>> INTERNAL REMARKS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

AUGUST

 

DAY:

26

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

MAP:

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 6.6 - MOLUCCA SEA - 2012-08-26 15:05:37 UTC

 

EMSC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EARTHQUAKES TODAY

REPORTS:

NAME of REGION

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME

MAGNITUDE

DEPTH

CATHEGORY

GOOGLE EARTH:

 

 

MOLUCCA SEA 2.24 N ; 126.87 E 2012-08-26 15:05:37 UTC M 6.6

80 km

 

---

 

                 
 

 

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

 

 

 

 

 

click on region name to see epicenter maps:

EVENTS WITH PARTICULAR QUAKES EXCEEDING M 3.0:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EMSC

 

REGION OF CALIFORNIA (USGS)

AUGUST 26 -2012

QUAKES ABOVE M 2.0 :

86!

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 5.5 - SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA - 2012-08-26 20:57:58 UTC  
DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

AUGUST 26 -2012

QUAKES ABOVE M 2.0 :

03

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.2 - DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE - 2012-08-26 10:45:23 UTC  

EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ EASTERN TURKEY- near VAN- city

AUGUST 26 -2012

QUAKES ABOVE M 2.0 :

  HIGHEST MAGNITUDE:    

EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ WESTERN TURKEY

AUGUST 26 -2012

QUAKES ABOVE M 2.0 :

16

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.2 - WESTERN TURKEY - 2012-08-26 04:17:58 UTC

 

OTHER QUAKE SWARMS WITH MAGNITUDES > M 2.0 < M 3.0

NORTHERN ITALY:

 

EASTERN TURKEY- near VAN: 08

CANARY ISLANDS/ EL HIERRO:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

note: allthough CME impacts are regularly coincident at least with TEMPORARY volcano acticity increases, my time does not allow to introduce such

< stats

 

DETAILLED resp. "FINE TUNED"statistic reports as required to communicate this!. This section therefor can only refer to changes in "ALERT LEVELS" as published by GVP. Click on the buttons (right) to findat least more detailled internal reports >

maps >

 
REGION:
NAME/USGS datalink:
GEOGRAPHIC POSITION: LAT. / LONG.
VOLCANO NUMBER
VOLCANO TYPE
WEBCAM DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL MAP: LOCAL SURVEY

 

INDONESIA

SOPUTAN 1°6'30"N/ 124°44'0"E 0606-03= Stratovolcano Hi* SOPUTAN

AUG- 26- 2012

 

INDONESIA

GVP

 

Wikipedia:

                   
           

20120828

report by:

GVP

 

CVGHM reported that the Alert Level for Soputan had been lowered to 2 (on a scale of 1-4) on 26 June. Seismicity increased during 8-22 August; on 23 August volcanic earthquakes and avalanches significantly increased. White plumes rose 50-150 m above the crater. An eruption at 1936 on 26 August ejected incandescent tephra 50 m above the crater and produced a plume that rose 1 km and drifted W. The Alert Level was raised to 3.

Based on information from CVGHMNOAA, and analysis of satellite imagery, the Darwin VAAC reported that on 27 August an ash plume rose to an altitude of 12.1 km (40,000 ft) a.s.l. and drifted 150 km W. The eruption lasted four hours. Later, a plume detected in satellite imagery rose to an altitude of 6.1 km (20,000 ft) a.s.l. On 28 August an ash plume drifted 220 km SW at an altitude of 6.1 km (20,000 ft) a.s.l.

 

                               

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

no tropical storm reported so far

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED:

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground.com

Tropical Storm Isaac

AUG- 20- 2012 NORTHERN ATLANTIC

60 MPH (descreasing)

78.0° W 

22.9 ° N

PASSING CUBA APPR. 30 KM NORTH OFF THE COAST-- 200 KM SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI

NW

 

 

wunderground.com Invest 97L

AUG- 24- 2012

NORTHERN ATLANTIC

35 MPH

33.2° W

15.2 ° N

APPR. 450 KM W OF CAPE VERDE ISLANDS

WNW

   
wunderground.com Invest 97E AUF- 25- 2012 EASTERN PACIFIC

30 MPH

99.7° W 

 11.5° N APPR 400 km SW OF OAXACA/ MEXICO

WNW

   
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Bolaven AUG- 19- 2012 WESTERN PACIFIC

130 MPH (decreasing)

129.5° E

25.3 ° N

NEAR MARIANAS APPR. 1100 km SE of NAGO ISLAND

NW

 

 

wunderground.com Tropical Depression Tembin AUG-18-2012 WESTERN PACIFIC

^95 MPH

116.9° E  

21.0 ° N

LESS THAN 50 km SW OF TAIWAN

SSE

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2 - SOLAR

 

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

78

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

457-682

FLARES

C

01

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

113

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 2.7

 

M

 

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

11

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

62- 120 nT

 

X

 

 

 

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

OVERALL SOLAR ACTIVITY >> :

INCREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 

REMARKS/ CONF.*

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES /FLARES

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20120815

 

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

 

20120722

20120831

 

 

11546

46 °- 60° W

16° N

 

 

 

 

 

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

 

11548

17° - 31° W

19° N

 

AUG- 24

 

 

 

 

NUMBER

LATITUDE:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

REEMERGED>

11551

   

faded

 

       

CH 530

TRANSEQU. CLOSING AUG- 17- 2012

AUG 22- 23

RECURR.

 
 

11552

07° E- 07° W

18° S

 

AUG- 26

 

 

 

 

LAST- NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION >

AUG 19

N-P - CH- EXT

 

 

11553

35 - 21° E

21° S

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST- SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION >

AUG- 19

SP - CH- EXT

 

 

11554

01°- 15° W

15° N

LARGEST AR/ CRITICAL

AUG 25- 26

 

 

 

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

- 575 km/ s

CH 530

 

NEWLY EMERGED >

11555

71°- 57° E

08° N

Dao/ beta AUG- 30

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T.EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

 

         

 

 

 

 

FILAMENTS >

 

 

REMARKS>

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

* CONF= magnetic configuration

a= alpha

b= beta

g= gamma

d= delta

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:

 

h

 

 

2012

NOAA/ RSGA

 

SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest flare in the past 24 hours was a C1 at 1817Z from a region just around the east limb. No CMEs observed in the past 24 hours are expected to be geoeffective.

 

CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                             

LAST CME ARRIVALS

 

REMARKS OR VIDEOS:

 

 

CURRENTLY ACTIVE CMEs:

 

 

 

DATE OF LAST CME ARRIVAL >

20120824

 

 

CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs

00

TOTAL >

00

 

     

ERUPTION DAY >

         

NUMBER >

73/12

 

 

CMEs BY TRACKING NRS.>

   

 

 

 

STRENGTH >

- 135 nT

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

   

 

 

 

LIKELY EFFECTIVE UNTIL >

 

 

ESTIMATED ARRIVALS

       

 

ARRIVED ON:

   

EXTERNAL SOURCES( CME):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NASA/ ACE: CME and SOLAR WIND/Analysis system>

ACE/ EPAM: ELECTRONS

ACE/SIS: PROTONS

RU/ MOSCOW: NEUTRONS

 

NASA/ISWA/animation of interplanetary CME evolution a.m.o.

 

NASA ARCHIVES>

NASA/ NOAA- PROTON FLUX/ arch

GOES/ 3 days X-RAY FLUX

GOES/ ELECTRONS

GOEShp ( MAG)

 

VARIOUS>

 

 

 

Magn complexity/ particle acceleration

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED EVENT >>

CME 20120824

int. CME Nr. >>

73/12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGOUND OR : "LATENCY"= EARTHQUAKES ABOVE M 6.0 ARE POSSIBLE BUT RATHER UNLIKELY

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

75°- 105° W

LOW-MEDIUM

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

(THUNDER-) STORMS

CENTRAL AMERICA & USA

< VOLCANISM/ QUAKES >

N- AMERICA >< PACIFIC.

 

INCREASING

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

CALIFORNIA

< GEOGRAPHIC >

CENTR- A ><COCOS

 

26 AUGUST - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

EASTERN PACIFIC

These forcasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

AMERICA >< JUAN DE FUCA

 

M 5.5- 7.0

2-3

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

SOUTH AMERICA WEST

NASCA ><PACIFIC

 

27 AUGUST - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS?

SECONDARY REGIONS :

SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5- 7.0

2-3

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

15° W - 115° E

EURASIA- WEST /EAST

 

28 AUGUST - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

CENTRAL ATLANTIC

CENTRAL ATLANTIC

 

M 5.5- 7.0

2-3

 

 

 

 

 

JAPAN- PHILIPPINES

*REGIONS> see definition below

INDO AUS >< PACIFIC

 

 

 

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:

USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES>   CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS >

LATENCY EFFECTS ON EQ

WIDE CME DISTRIBUTION

 

QUIET

 

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated period of active and major storm levels at high latitudes.

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REPORTS /LINKS

 

MINOR STORM

 

 

ELECTRON STORM

NONE

NONE

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

MAJOR STORM

 

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE

NONE

 

 

 

 

S. RADIATION STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 

>> INTERNAL REMARKS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

AUGUST

 

DAY:

25

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

MAP:

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.9 - HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION - 2012-08-25 14:16:15 UTC

 

EMSC

 

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

 

 

 

 

 

click on region name to see epicenter maps:

EVENTS WITH PARTICULAR QUAKES EXCEEDING M 3.0:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EMSC

 

CANARY ISLANDS/ EL HIERRO:

AUGUST 25 -2012

QUAKES ABOVE M 2.0 :

01

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 2.9 - CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN- 2012-08-25 17:09:14 UTC  
EARTHQUAKES/ CALIFORNIA REGION ( USGS)

AUGUST 25 -2012

QUAKES ABOVE M 2.0 :

05 HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.2 - GULF OF CALIFORNIA- 2012 8 25 17:14:14 UTC  

EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ EASTERN TURKEY- near VAN- city

AUGUST 25 -2012

QUAKES ABOVE M 2.0 :

07

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.0 - EASTERN TURKEY - 2012-08-25 14:03:15 UTC  

EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ WESTERN TURKEY

AUGUST 25 -2012

QUAKES ABOVE M 2.0 :

18

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.2 - WESTERN TURKEY - 2012-08-25 23:33:50 UTC

 

OTHER QUAKE SWARMS WITH MAGNITUDES > M 2.0 < M 3.0

NORTHERN ITALY: 02

 

 

 

 

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

 

         

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

no tropical storm reported so far

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED:

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground.com

Tropical Storm Isaac

AUG- 20- 2012 NORTHERN ATLANTIC

^70 MPH

72.8° W

18.0 ° N

LANDFALL AT PORT AU PRINCE/ HAITI

NW

 

 

wunderground.com Invest 97L

AUG- 24- 2012

NORTHERN ATLANTIC

30 MPH

26.5° W

13.0 ° N

APPR. 200 KM SW OF CAPE VERDE ISLANDS

W

   
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Bolaven AUG- 19- 2012 WESTERN PACIFIC

^ 145 MPH

132.1° E  

23.5 ° N

APPR. 1500 km SE of SHANGHAI

NW

   
wunderground.com Tropical Depression Tembin AUG-18-2012 WESTERN PACIFIC

85 MPH decreasing

118.1° E 

22.4 ° N

OFFHORE ZHEJIANG PROV./ CHINA

W

 

 

ASSUMPTION PARISH/ GOM

             

20120825

report by:

thewatchers

 

Elevated levels of radioactive elements found at Louisiana sinkhole site

Louisiana massive sinkhole gets bigger every day and gas bubbles have been located now in thirteen sites on the bayous around Ground Bayou. After a section of pipeline in the slurry area became bent, officials asked natural gas companies operating near the sinkhole to depressurize pipelines. Meanwhile, Crosstex Energy of Dallas has started moving 1.5 million barrels of liquid butane from a storage cavern near the sinkhole....read more...

(internal remarks): The sinkhole is the result of oil wells drilled into a vertical salt dome. As the graphic ( left) intends to illustrate, "Salt domes (wiki)" are hopefully believed to be just the result of former horizontal salt layers, one squeezed into a vertical shape by surface formations (resp. tectonic plates moving against each other. But ever since both - the south american and north american plates are drifiting apart from each other (around the Yucatan peninsula), all the Gulf of MEXICO has no subduction but is a "spreading zone". Thus- the many saltdomes found in the region might rather be what I believe they are, or at least some of them rather may be: FORMER VOLCANO CHIMNEYS, those filled with salt , while water continued to evaporate by continuing heat, when these zoners and their volcanoes once became less active (=not more visibly active). BP drilled 2012 into the Beloxi salt dome, what most likely lead to the curse of events following April 10- 2010. The Macondo well once marked the west end of the socalled "Florida fault" , which is just activily spreading less andwas soon filled by the loop current carrying sediments. The main spreading zone within the GOM however is the Cayman trench. Watch video below!

From the most of the more than 800 volcanoes just a few have sign of visible activities. But deep inside they remained on low activity even over Millions of years thus they are regarded as "active"

 

 

 

 

 

>

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2 - SOLAR

 

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

70

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

371-574

FLARES

C

01

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

105

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 2.0

 

M

 

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

10

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

37- 125 nT

 

X

 

 

 

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

OVERALL SOLAR ACTIVITY >> :

LOW

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 

REMARKS/ CONF.*

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES /FLARES

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20120815

 

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

 

20120722

20120831

 

 

11546

33 °- 47° W

16° N

 

 

 

 

 

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

 

11548

04° - 18° W

19° N

  AUG- 24

 

 

 

 

NUMBER

LATITUDE:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

REEMERGED>

11551

51°- 65° W

12° N

faded

         

CH 530

TRANSEQU. CLOSING AUG- 17- 2012

AUG 22- 23

RECURR.

 
 

11552

17° - 03° E

18° S

  AUG- 26

 

 

 

 

LAST- NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION >

AUG 19

N-P - CH- EXT

 

 

11553

48 - 34° E

21° S

   

 

 

 

 

LAST- SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION >

AUG- 19

SP - CH- EXT

 

NEWLY EMERGED >

11554

14°- 00° E

15° N

LARGEST AR/ CRITICAL AUG 25- 26

 

 

 

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

INCREASE CH 530

 

 

         

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T.EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

 

         

 

 

 

 

FILAMENTS >

 

 

REMARKS>

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

* CONF= magnetic configuration

a= alpha

b= beta

g= gamma

d= delta

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:

 

h

 

 

2012

NOAA/ RSGA

 

SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1554 (N15W00) produced one C1/Sf flare at 0236Z. No CMEs observed in the past 24 hours are expected to be geoeffective. New Region 1555 (N09E69) was numbered overnight and has developed into a Dao type spot group with a beta magnetic configuration.

 

CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                             

LAST CME ARRIVALS

 

REMARKS OR VIDEOS:

 

 

CURRENTLY ACTIVE CMEs:

 

 

 

DATE OF LAST CME ARRIVAL >

20120824

 

 

CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs

00

TOTAL >

00

 

      ERUPTION DAY >          

NUMBER >

73/12

 

 

CMEs BY TRACKING NRS.>    

 

 

 

STRENGTH >

- 135 nT

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:    

 

 

 

LIKELY EFFECTIVE UNTIL >

 

 

ESTIMATED ARRIVALS        

 

ARRIVED ON:    

EXTERNAL SOURCES( CME):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NASA/ ACE: CME and SOLAR WIND/Analysis system>

ACE/ EPAM: ELECTRONS

ACE/SIS: PROTONS

RU/ MOSCOW: NEUTRONS

 

NASA/ISWA/animation of interplanetary CME evolution a.m.o.

 

NASA ARCHIVES>

NASA/ NOAA- PROTON FLUX/ arch

GOES/ 3 days X-RAY FLUX

GOES/ ELECTRONS

GOEShp ( MAG)

 

VARIOUS>

 

 

 

Magn complexity/ particle acceleration

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED EVENT >>

CME 20120824

int. CME Nr. >>

73/12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGOUND OR : "LATENCY"= EARTHQUAKES ABOVE M 6.0 ARE POSSIBLE BUT RATHER UNLIKELY

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

75°- 105° W

LOW-MEDIUM

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

(THUNDER-) STORMS

CENTRAL AMERICA & USA

< VOLCANISM/ QUAKES >

N- AMERICA >< PACIFIC.

 

INCREASING

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

CALIFORNIA

< GEOGRAPHIC >

CENTR- A ><COCOS

 

25 AUGUST - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

EASTERN PACIFIC

These forcasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

AMERICA >< JUAN DE FUCA

 

M 5.5- 7.0

LATENCY?

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

SOUTH AMERICA WEST

NASCA ><PACIFIC

 

26 AUGUST - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS?

SECONDARY REGIONS :

SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5- 7.5

2-3

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

15° W - 115° E

EURASIA- WEST /EAST

 

27 AUGUST - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

CENTRAL ATLANTIC

CENTRAL ATLANTIC

 

M 5.5- 7.0

2-3

 

 

 

 

 

JAPAN- PHILIPPINES

*REGIONS> see definition below

INDO AUS >< PACIFIC

 

 

 

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:

USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES>   CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS >

LATENCY EFFECTS ON EQ

WIDE CME DISTRIBUTION

 

QUIET

 

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels with two periods of active to major storm levels at high latitudes. Solar wind velocity increased to around 600 km/s with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream.

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REPORTS /LINKS

 

MINOR STORM

 

 

ELECTRON STORM

NONE

NONE

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

MAJOR STORM

 

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE

NONE

 

 

 

 

S. RADIATION STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 

>> INTERNAL REMARKS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

AUGUST

 

DAY:

24

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

MAP:

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.7 - SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS - 2012-08-24 10:01:54 UTC

 

EMSC

 

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

 

 

 

 

 

click on region name to see epicenter maps:

EVENTS WITH PARTICULAR QUAKES EXCEEDING M 3.0:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EMSC

 

EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ WESTERN TURKEY

AUGUST 24 -2012

QUAKES ABOVE M 2.0 :

17

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.0 - WESTERN TURKEY - 2012-08-24 22:10:48 UTC

 

OTHER QUAKE SWARMS WITH MAGNITUDES > M 2.0 < M 3.0

NORTHERN ITALY: 01

 

EASTERN TURKEY- near VAN: 04

CANARY ISLANDS/ EL HIERRO: 00

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL: 04

 

NEW (AUG- 21) SOUTHERN ITALY

AUGUST 24 -2012

QUAKES ABOVE M 2.0 :

03

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 2.4 - SOUTHERN ITALY - 2012-08-24 22:18:31 UTC  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

note: allthough CME impacts are regularly coincident at least with TEMPORARY volcano acticity increases, my time does not allow to introduce such

< stats

 

DETAILLED resp. "FINE TUNED"statistic reports as required to communicate this!. This section therefor can only refer to changes in "ALERT LEVELS" as published by GVP. Click on the buttons (right) to findat least more detailled internal reports >

maps >

 
REGION:
NAME/USGS datalink:
GEOGRAPHIC POSITION: LAT. / LONG.
VOLCANO NUMBER
VOLCANO TYPE
WEBCAM DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL MAP: LOCAL SURVEY

 

KERMADEC ISLAND

HAVRE SEAMOUNT ( NEW SEAMOUNT!!) not numbered yet ? not defined yet HAVRE SEAMOUNT
--

AUG- 24-2012

 

AUSTR.

GVP

 

Wikipedia:

                   
           

20120828

report by:

 NASA

 

According to NASA's Earth Observatory, a satellite image acquired on 24 August showed linear clusters of pumice, from the mid-July eruption from Havre Seamount, floating in the ocean around L'Esperance Rock (about 50 km SE).

Editor's Note: Havre Seamount is not currently in the Global Volcanism Program's database. The latitude and longitude in the header information come from the GNS report and may be updated at a later date, along with the summit elevation and Geologic Summary.

Source: NASA Earth Observatory

 

 

                               

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

no tropical storm reported so far

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED:

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground.com

Tropical Storm Isaac

AUG- 20- 2012 NORTHERN ATLANTIC

45 MPH

69.4° W

16.9 ° N

appr 100 km SOUTH OF HAITI/ W- INDIES/ 400 km SEE OF CUBA

WNW

 

 

wunderground.com Tropical Depression Joyce

AUG- 19- 2012

NORTHERN ATLANTIC

35 MPH

  43.7° W

16.3 ° N

appr 1700 km SE of BERMUDA/ 1000 km E of MONTSERRAT

WNW

   
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Bolaven AUG- 19- 2012 WESTERN PACIFIC

^ 120 MPH

133.6° E 

21.0° N

APPR. 1500 km SE of TAIWAN

NW

   
wunderground.com Tropical Depression Tembin AUG-18-2012 WESTERN PACIFIC

115 MPH

120.5° E

22.1 ° N

appr. 180 km NE of TAIWAN

WSW

 

 

NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY

             

20120824

report by:

thewatchers

 

Reactor-1 of Uljin Nuclear Power Plant automatically shut down, South Korea

On August 23, 2012 a nuclear reactor in South Korea’s southeastern region shut itself down after its reactor operation system gave a warning signal, the state-run plant operator said. The Reactor-1 in Uljin Nuclear Power Plant, automatically stopped operating its nuclear reactor and turbine generator as of 6:41 p.m., according to the Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power Co. It froze itself on the warning signal and the shutdown falls under a “zero” rating according to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) standards, it said. The state-run operator said the halt of the reactor will not have any impact on the plant’s safety, adding it is unrelated to a radiation leak. The operator immediately reported the shutdown to related government agencies to find out the reasons for the freeze. This is second reported nuclear reactor shutdown in South Korea in last 30 days. ...read more...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GOES ELECTRONS / ELAVATED ON 20120824:

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2 - SOLAR

 

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

69

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

345-406

FLARES

C

 

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

104

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 1.6

 

M

 

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

08

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

55- 130 nT

< CME arrival

X

 

 

 

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

OVERALL SOLAR ACTIVITY >> :

LOW

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 

REMARKS/ CONF.*

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES /FLARES

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20120722

 

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

 

20120622

20120705

 

(currently largest region)

11546

20 °- 34° W

16° N

CRITICAL

 

 

 

 

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

 

11548

07° E 07° W

19° N

  AUG- 24

 

 

 

 

NUMBER

LATITUDE:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

 

11551

26° - 40° W

12° N

faded

         

CH 530

TRANSEQU. GROWING AUG- 17- 2012

AUG 22- 23

RECURR.

 
 

11552

30° - 16° E

18° S

  AUG- 26

 

 

 

 

LAST- NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION >

AUG 19

N-P - CH- EXT

 

NEWLY EMERGED >

11553

62 - 48° E

21° S

   

 

 

 

 

LAST- SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION >

AUG- 19

SP - CH- EXT

 

           

 

 

 

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

   

 

 

         

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T.EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

 

         

 

 

 

 

FILAMENTS >

 

 

REMARKS>

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

* CONF= magnetic configuration

a= alpha

b= beta

g= gamma

d= delta

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:

 

h

 

 

2012

NOAA/ RSGA

 

SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No CMEs observed in the past 24 hours are expected to be geoeffective. New Region 1554 (N16E12) was numbered overnight and has developed into a Dai type spot group with a beta magnetic configuration. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class activity.

 

CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                             

TODAY`S CME ARRIVALS:

 

CME TRACKING >

 

ARRIVAL AT SAT

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

       

TRACKING NR. >>

73/12

SOLAR EVENT DATA

CME EVENT

APPROACHING >

ACE

GOES

 

UTC

< IMPACT > CME ARRIVAL DATA (EARTH)  

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT. SOLAR EVENT

ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

     

> 100 nT

MAIN PEAK VALUE REL. MASS VALUE MAIN IMPACT REGIONS  

20120824

11549

72° W

18° N

flare and filament eruption

20120822

09:30

  08:00 UTC   13:00- 04:30 (Aug- 25) 17:00- 19:00 130 nT 225

 

 
 

 

PROPERTIES>  

beta

  15° W- 115° E 75°- 105° W SECONDARY IMPACT REGIONS>    

LAST CME ARRIVALS

 

REMARKS OR VIDEOS:

 

 

CURRENTLY ACTIVE CMEs:

 

 

 

DATE OF LAST CME ARRIVAL >

20120824

 

 

CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs

01

TOTAL >

00

 

     

ERUPTION DAY >

  AUG- 22- 2012      

NUMBER >

73/12

 

 

CMEs BY TRACKING NRS.>

 

73/12

 

 

 

STRENGTH >

- 135 nT

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

  Filament

 

 

 

LIKELY EFFECTIVE UNTIL >

 

 

ESTIMATED ARRIVALS

       

 

ARRIVED ON:

   

EXTERNAL SOURCES( CME):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NASA/ ACE: CME and SOLAR WIND/Analysis system>

ACE/ EPAM: ELECTRONS

ACE/SIS: PROTONS

RU/ MOSCOW: NEUTRONS

 

NASA/ISWA/animation of interplanetary CME evolution a.m.o.

 

NASA ARCHIVES>

NASA/ NOAA- PROTON FLUX/ arch

GOES/ 3 days X-RAY FLUX

GOES/ ELECTRONS

GOEShp ( MAG)

 

VARIOUS>

 

 

 

Magn complexity/ particle acceleration

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED EVENT >>

CME 20120824

int. CME Nr. >>

73/12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGOUND OR : "LATENCY"= EARTHQUAKES ABOVE M 6.0 ARE POSSIBLE BUT RATHER UNLIKELY

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

75°- 105° W

LOW-MEDIUM

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

(THUNDER-) STORMS

CENTRAL AMERICA & USA

< VOLCANISM/ QUAKES >

N- AMERICA >< PACIFIC.

 

LATENCY

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

CALIFORNIA

< GEOGRAPHIC >

CENTR- A ><COCOS

 

24 AUGUST - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

EASTERN PACIFIC

These forcasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

AMERICA >< JUAN DE FUCA

 

M 5.5- > 6.5

2-3 (Latency- end?)

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

SOUTH AMERICA WEST

NASCA ><PACIFIC

<

25 AUGUST - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS?

SECONDARY REGIONS :

SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5- 7.0

2-3

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

15° W - 115° E

EURASIA- WEST /EAST

 

26 AUGUST - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

CENTRAL ATLANTIC

CENTRAL ATLANTIC

 

M 5.5- 7.0

2-3

 

 

 

 

 

JAPAN- PHILIPPINES

*REGIONS> see definition below

INDO AUS >< PACIFIC

 

INFLUENCES>  

 

 

 

 

EFFECTING AS >

LATENCY EFFECTS ON EQ

WIDE CME DISTRIBUTION

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:

USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

QUIET

 

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with active to minor storm levels at high latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REPORTS /LINKS

 

MINOR STORM

 

 

ELECTRON STORM

NONE

NONE

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

MAJOR STORM

 

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE

NONE

 

 

 

 

S. RADIATION STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 

>> INTERNAL REMARKS

 

 

3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT

 

EXPLANATIONS>

Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.

Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./

Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME or CME cluster/

 

HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST>

INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions!

STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS

The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER a LATENCY period due to CME IMPACT on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES within the RED until the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Read "latency remarks"

 

REGIONS

REGION "A"

REGION "B"

REGION "C"

REGION" D"

REGION "E"

REGION "F"

 

 

REGIONS COVERED BY LATEST CME IMPACT>

EASTERN EURASIA- CHINA- INDONESIA- PHILIPPINES--AUSTRALIA WEST ALASKA - KAMCHATKA- JAPAN/EAST- AUSTRALIA/ (EAST), PNG. NZL WESTERN USA+ WEST COAST- EASTERN PACIFIC- CANADA-ALA

EASTERN PACIFIC & CNTRL. AMERICA/ CENTR. USA/ SOUTH AMERICA:CARIBIC/ /COLUMBIA/ PERU

CENTRAL (WEST) EUROPE/ AFRICA, EAST ATLANTIC. CANARIES - EASTERN SOUTH AMERICA

INDIA & INDIAN OCEAN- AFRICA (EAST), ARABIA ASIA MINOR

RELATED CME EVENT:

 

RELATED TECTONIC BOUNDARIES>

PACIFIC< EURASIA>< INDO-AUSTRALIA

NORTH AMERICA (W) >< EURASIA (E) ><PACIFIC (E)

NORTH AMERICA/ incl. Microplates ><PACIFIC

AFRICA >< CARRIBEAN >< SOUTH AMERIA >< NASCA>< COCOS

EURASIA <> N-AMERICA/WESTCARRIBEAN ><AFRICA

EURASIA><ARABIA ><INDO-AUSTRALIA

CME ARRIVAL:

 

UTC TIME ZONES >

..

.......

...

...

......

..

20120824

 

LONGITUDES>

120° E- 90° E

135° E- 180° - 135° W

90° W- 135° W

45° W- 90° W

45° W - 00° W- 45° E

45° E- 90° E

Nr.: /73 / 12

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

AUGUST

 

DAY:

23

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

MAP:

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.0 - NEPAL - 2012-08-23 16:30:19 UTC

 

EMSC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EARTHQUAKES TODAY

REPORTS:

NAME of REGION

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME

MAGNITUDE

DEPTH

CATHEGORY

GOOGLE EARTH:

 

 

NEPAL 28.60 N ; 82.77 E 2012-08-23 16:30:19 UTC M 5.0 10 km  

---

 

                 
 

 

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

 

 

 

 

 

click on region name to see epicenter maps:

EVENTS WITH PARTICULAR QUAKES EXCEEDING M 3.0:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EMSC

 

OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON/ EAST PACIFIC

AUGUST 23 -2012

QUAKES ABOVE M 2.0 :

01

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.1 - OFF COAST OF WASHINGTON - 2012-08-23 08:37:07 UTC  

EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ WESTERN TURKEY

AUGUST 23 -2012

QUAKES ABOVE M 2.0 :

07 HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.6 - WESTERN TURKEY - 2012-08-23 02:54:44 UTC

 

OTHER QUAKE SWARMS WITH MAGNITUDES > M 2.0 < M 3.0

NORTHERN ITALY: 01

 

EASTERN TURKEY near VAN: 04

CANARY ISLANDS/ EL HIERRO:

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL: 03

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

note: allthough CME impacts are regularly coincident at least with TEMPORARY volcano acticity increases, my time does not allow to introduce such

< stats

 

DETAILLED resp. "FINE TUNED"statistic reports as required to communicate this!. This section therefor can only refer to changes in "ALERT LEVELS" as published by GVP. Click on the buttons (right) to findat least more detailled internal reports >

maps >

 
REGION:
NAME/USGS datalink:
GEOGRAPHIC POSITION: LAT. / LONG.
VOLCANO NUMBER
VOLCANO TYPE
WEBCAM DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL MAP: LOCAL SURVEY

 

JAVA/ INDONESIA

TANGKUBANPARAHU 6°46'0"S/ 107°36'0"E 1603-09= Stratovolcano Hi* TANGKUBANPARAHU

AUGUST- 23- 2012

 

INDON

GVP

 

Wikipedia:

                   
           

20120814

report by:

GVP

 

CVGHM reported that seismicity at Tangkubanparahu increased significantly on 13 August; earthquakes continued to be recorded through 23 August. The Alert Level was raised to 2 (on a scale of 1-4). Visitors and residents were prohibited from going within a 1.5-km radius of the active crater.

 

                               

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

no tropical storm reported so far

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED:

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground.com

Tropical Storm Isaac

AUG- 20- 2012 NORTHERN ATLANTIC

^ 45 MPH

63.0° W 

15.8 ° N

appr 100 km EAST OF W- INDIES/ 1000 km SEE OF CUBA

W

 

 

wunderground.com Tropical Depression Ten

AUG- 19- 2012

NORTHERN ATLANTIC

^ 35 MPH

39.5° W

13.8 ° N

appr 700 km SWW OF CAPE VERDE

WNW

   
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Bolaven AUG- 19- 2012 WESTERN PACIFIC

^ 105 MPH

135.6° E 

19.7° N

APPR. 300 km NE of NORTHERN MARIANAS

WNW

   
wunderground.com Tropical Depression Tembin AUG-18-2012 WESTERN PACIFIC

^ 115 MPH

123.6° E

22.5 ° N

LANDFALL ON TAIWAN EXPECTED ON AUG- 24

W (changed direction)

 

 

               

20120823

report by:

thewatchers

 

Large wildfire burned half of Chios Island, Greece

The fire began about a week ago and has been fuelled by strong winds. Fire had scorched about 13,000 hectares (32,123 acres), half of Chios had burned. After just two days the blaze had destroyed about 7,000 hectares (16,000 acres) of forest and farmland.Chios is the fifth largest of the Greek islands, situated in the Aegean Sea, 7 kilometres (4.3 mi) off the Anatolia coast. The island is separated from Turkey by the Chios Strait. The island has a port for merchant shipping. The island produces a unique mastic gum. The fire destroyed more than half of the island’s mastic orchards. Mastic is an aromatic resin used in food and cosmetic products....read more...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CH 530 and AR on 20120822/ STARMAP by solen.info

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2 - SOLAR

 

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

49

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

347-422

FLARES

C

 

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

96

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 1.4

 

M

 

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

11

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

45- 105

 

X

 

 

 

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

OVERALL SOLAR ACTIVITY >> :

LOW

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 

REMARKS/ CONF.*

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES /FLARES

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20120722

 

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

 

20120622

20120705

 

(currently largest region)

11546

07 °- 21° W

16° N

CRITICAL

 

 

 

 

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

 

11548

21° 07° E

19° N

  AUG- 24

 

 

 

 

NUMBER

LATITUDE:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

                   

CH 530

TRANSEQU. GROWING AUG- 17- 2012

AUG 22- 23

RECURR.

 
 

11551

26° - 40° W

12° N

                         
 

11552

46° - 32° E

18° S

  AUG- 26

 

 

 

 

LAST- NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION >

AUG 19

N-P - CH- EXT

 

           

 

 

 

 

LAST- SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION >

AUG- 19

SP - CH- EXT

 

           

 

 

 

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

   

 

 

         

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T.EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

 

         

 

 

 

 

FILAMENTS >

 

 

REMARKS>

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

* CONF= magnetic configuration

a= alpha

b= beta

g= gamma

d= delta

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:

 

h

 

 

2012

NOAA/ RSGA

 

SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. There were a few low level B-class flares observed. All spotted regions were quiet and stable. New Region 1553 (S23E50), an Hsx/alpha type group, was numbered. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flares for the next three days (24-26 August).

 

CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                             

LAST CME ARRIVALS

 

REMARKS OR VIDEOS:

 

 

CURRENTLY ACTIVE CMEs:

 

 

 

DATE OF LAST CME ARRIVAL >

20120819

 

 

CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs

00

TOTAL >

00

 

     

ERUPTION DAY >

         

NUMBER >

72/12

 

 

CMEs BY TRACKING NRS.>

   

 

 

 

STRENGTH >

- 132 nT

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

   

 

 

 

LIKELY EFFECTIVE UNTIL >

 

 

ESTIMATED ARRIVALS

       

 

ARRIVED ON:

   

EXTERNAL SOURCES( CME):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NASA/ ACE: CME and SOLAR WIND/Analysis system>

ACE/ EPAM: ELECTRONS

ACE/SIS: PROTONS

RU/ MOSCOW: NEUTRONS

 

NASA/ISWA/animation of interplanetary CME evolution a.m.o.

 

NASA ARCHIVES>

NASA/ NOAA- PROTON FLUX/ arch

GOES/ 3 days X-RAY FLUX

GOES/ ELECTRONS

GOEShp ( MAG)

 

VARIOUS>

 

 

 

Magn complexity/ particle acceleration

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED EVENT >>

CME 20120818 - 19

int. CME Nr. >>

71/ 72/12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGOUND OR : "LATENCY"= EARTHQUAKES ABOVE M 6.0 ARE POSSIBLE BUT RATHER UNLIKELY

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

120°- 135° W

MEDIUM

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

(THUNDER-) STORMS

EASTERN PACIFIC

< VOLCANISM/ QUAKES >

AMERICA ><PACIFIC.

 

LATENCY

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

NZL, VANUARU

< GEOGRAPHIC >

INDO AUS- PACIFIC

 

23 AUGUST - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

ALASKA/ US WEST COAST

These forcasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

AMERICA >< JUAN DE FUCA

 

M 5.5- 7.0

minor CME arrival on AUG 22

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

SOUTH AMERICA WEST

AMERICA >< EURASIA

 

24 AUGUST - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS?

SECONDARY REGIONS :

SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5- > 6.5

2-3 (Latency- end?)

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

00° W - 150° E

EUROPE- WEST

 

25 AUGUST - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

EASTERN PACIFIC

ATLANTIC CANARIES

 

M 5.5- 7.0

2-3

 

 

 

 

 

AMERICAS WEST COASTS

*REGIONS> see definition below

AFRICA

 

INFLUENCES>  

 

 

 

 

EFFECTING AS >

LATENCY EFFECTS ON EQ

WIDE CME DISTRIBUTION

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:

USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

QUIET

 

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REPORTS /LINKS

 

MINOR STORM

 

 

ELECTRON STORM

NONE

NONE

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

MAJOR STORM

 

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE

NONE

 

 

 

 

S. RADIATION STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

AUGUST

 

DAY:

22

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

MAP:

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.4 - EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G. - 2012-08-22 11:38:19 UTC

 

EMSC

 

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

 

 

 

 

 

click on region name to see epicenter maps:

EVENTS WITH PARTICULAR QUAKES EXCEEDING M 3.0:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EMSC

 

SOUTHERN SUMATRA (USGS)

20120822

QUAKES ABOVE M 2.0 :

02

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 5.6 - SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA- 20120821 17:3 UTC  

OTHER QUAKE SWARMS WITH MAGNITUDES > M 2.0 < M 3.0

NORTHERN ITALY: 02

WESTERN TURKEY: 08