-----------------------

 

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alien- homepage.de- Earth quake statistics- -SUN SPOT ACTIVITY- 11- years solar cycle- last update: JAN- 01- 2013- -07:00 UTC copyright: reserved

background image: Aurora Borealis /COMMONS / wikipedia
open source earthquake forecast project created and provided by: alien-homepage.de-

 

 

2012/ 13 - MAXIMUM OF 11- YEAR SOLAR CYCLE

SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG

ARCHIVE
DECEMBER - 2012

 

NASA STEREO BEACON

alien-homepage.de / internal links:

TRANSLATORS
recommended: install Google toolbar with integrated translator!
PROJECT CENTRAL:

ws

PAGES RELATED TO THIS SOLAR/TERRESTRIAL PROJECT>
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SOHO REALTIME current view on the Sun
SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG/ ARCHIVES:
2013 >                      
2012 >

DEC
2011 >
2010 >
NOTE: I WILL APPLY A NEW ARCHIVE SYSTEM IN 2012. CLICK ON THE BUTTON (right) FOR THE NEW ARCHIVE DIRECTORY! >

Note: Due to the high data amount in these monthly archives, I am currently trying to improve this by putting the single archives into collapsible panels.

Also I will split the monthly archive into 4 weekly ones. click on the following tabs to open the collapsible panels. You can report to my blog, if you should still experience problems when loading this page.

click here to open panel with graphics, volcano maps , earthquake statistic DECEMBER 2012
   

True and REAL TIME graphic solution, that makes obvious the coincidences of CME impacts and extraordinary natural phenomenons such as heavier Earthquakes, volcano eruptions, hurricanes. sudden ice meltdowns (floddings) and others

( click on the graphic top to enlarge it):

INTERNAL MAPS: click on the images or links below to get to my large regional maps, where you find all volcanoes around the world with descriptions , webcams and much more such as ancients sites! . Weekly regular activity updates, special earthquakes events with many functions

world volcano map 1.0

world volcano map version 2.0

Europe and Western Asia Africa and Arabic peninsula Central America and Mexico South America- Northern part South America- Southern part Central America and Mexico Northern America Kamchatka peninsula Japan region Indonesia and Philippines Australia and Southern Pacific

- incident graphic will be completed at the end of the month-

SPACECRAFTS:
SoHO
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
SDO /AIA
Solar Dynamics Observatory
STEREO
Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory
GOES
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites

ACE

 
Advanced Composition Explorer

^^ internal Earthquake statistics- with Sun activity curves : green = SUNSPOT NUMBER, Pink= SOLAR FLUX, blue= PLANETARY A INDEX

click here to see some of the paradox observations made during that solar cycle first possibly by observatory sopacecrafts: : CORONAL HOLES THOSE REAPPEAR DURING SEVERAL SOLAR ROTATION PERIODS ON THE SAME HELIOGRAPHIC POSITION

 

 

VIDEOS/ REPORTS OF THE WEEK- DECEMBER 2012:

VIDEOS/ REPORTS OF THE WEEK- DECEMBER-2012:

  DEC- 19- 2012- guardian.co.uk/ ERUTION OF TOBALCHIK VOLCANO/ KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
 
  posted: NOV- 12- 2012: "2012 NATURAL HAZARDS- MOST DANGEROUS: SOLAR PROTON ERUPTIONS" ( collection of historical events)
 

 

DEC- 14- 2012

MINOR PROTON EVENT/ begin: DEC 14- 2012 / around  4.00 UTC/ end: Dec 18.

> Proton > 10 MeV flux significantly increased on DEC 14 after 09 UTC (measured with 08 pfu), when first Protons - sometimes accelerated up the the half speed of light (!!) - arrived on the terrestrial weather satellite GOES 13.

Interesting: Satellite images (see in blog Dec 14) show what is obviously the atmosphere resp the inactive magnetic field of Venus (as also the Sun Venus stands currently in Scorpius and thus Venus stands between Earth and Sun) flashing strongly up by sun winds streams earlier on Dec 13/ 500 UTC ( but 1 day prior to the suggested time of the proton event. Venus also might have shielded much of the proton eruption. However :the proton storm lasted only some hours . Values are still elavated but were almost back to normal levels on Dec 16. More proton events might follow in the coming month.

As in all previous cases, the proton event (that may have started around 400 UTC on Dec 14 -or later- was accomponied by a strong INCREASE in surface activity and again numerous larger eruptions associated with CMEs went off soon afterwards into all directions. Among these was one CME from a filament eruption that has Earth directed parts. those likely will arrive on Dec 17- 18.

DEC- 14- 2012:

ANOTHER UPCOMING SOLAR PROTON OUTBREAK?

 

Allthough  we are approaching the peak within the current 11 years "Sun spot cycle ", the related activity was again very low now almost over one week.  Such a longer phase of very low activity might likely be the indicator for another seldom " PROTON EVENT" (outburst, storm or whatever) upcoming soon ( within the next week or so) ( read more about in Dec 11 blog)

   
   
   
 

 

click here to open and close collapsible panel with the archived "SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG" DECEMBER 22- 31- 2012
/ eruptive proinence

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

DECEMBER

 

DAY:

31

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 -TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

 

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.2 - BALLENY ISLANDS REGION (ANTARCTICA) - 2012-12-31 20:02:04 UTC

MAP

EMSC

 

                   

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

This report will be continued later today!

EARTHQUAKE DATA:

EMSC

REV- "Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA

 

listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 4.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. EURASIA QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  

MAIN EARTHQUAKE REGIONS

FREQUENCY/ OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

NUMBER( >M 2) TECTONICS:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 4.0):

 

REGION PERU- BOLIVIA

FREQUENT MAP

01

PACIFIC >< SOUTH AMERICA >< NASZA M 4.2 - SOUTHERN PERU - 2012-12-31 23:11:13 UTC  

REGION INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES/ P.N.G

FREQUENT MAP

02

EURASIA >< / INDO AUSTRALIA M 4.7 - KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA - 2012-12-31 14:15:26 UTC  

KAMCHATKA ISLANDS/ KURIL ISLANDS/ JAPAN

FREQUENT MAP

02

N-AMERICA >< EURASIA >< PACIFIC><PHIL. M 4.9 - OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN - 2012-12-31 09:35:59 UTC  

AFRICA- MAINLY RED SEA REGION & INDIAN OCEAN

SELDOM MAP

01

EURASIA>< AFRICA >> ARABIA<>INDO AUS M 5.1 - SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN - 2012-12-31 08:50:08 UTC  

SECONDARY EARTHQUAKE REGIONS

           

HIGHEST MEASURED SINGLE REGIONAL EVENT (EXCEEDING MAGNITUDE M 4.0):

 

CANADA, ALASKA/ (CASCADIAN SZ)

SOMETIMES MAP

 

NORTH-AMERICA ><EXPLORER PLATE M 4.5 - NEAR ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS - 2012-12-31 15:11:59 UTC  

PANAMERICA

FREQUENT SINCE 2012 MAP

02

N & SOUTH AMERICA >< COCOS M 4.9 - GUATEMALA - 2012-12-31 01:15:18 UTC  

MEDITERRANEAN SEA REGION

FREQUENT MAP

01

AFRICA >< EURASIA M 3.0 - PYRENEES - 2012-12-31 05:53:59 UTC  

OTHER REGIONS /TREMORS/ SWARMS (> M 3.0)

This section lists events those are rather Earthquake swarms  or volcanic tremors quakes numbered: events > M 2.0 with single events exceeding magnitude M 3.0.  

NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND ARCTIC SEA

MAINLY DURING SUMMERTIME MAP

 

NORTH-AMERICA >< EURASIA    

GULF OF MEXICO ( GOM)/

VARYING MAP

 

CARIBBEAN><ATLANTIC >< AFRICA    

PYRENEES (EARTHQUAKE SWARM)

SELDOM MAP

08

AFRICA >< EURASIA>< N-AMERICA M 3.6 - PYRENEES - 2012-12-31 03:24:04 UTC  

WESTERN TURKEY

PERMANENT( higher since 2011) MAP

09

ARABIA>< EURASIA    

EASTERN TURKEY / Near city of VAN

PERMANENT MAP

01

ARABIA><EURASIA    

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

JULY 2012

MAP

02

EURASIA >< ARABIA >< AFRICA    

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012 MAP MAP

 

SAN ANDREAS FAULT >< JUAN DE FUCA    

CANARY REGION/ EL HIERRO

SINCE JUNE- 2011 MAP

01

N-AMERICA >< AFRICA >< EURASIA M 2.5 - CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION - 2012-12-31 16:01:38 UTC  

NORTHERN ITALY

SINCE MAR 2012 MAP

01

     
             
                     

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground. com

Tropical Cyclone Freda

DEC- 29- 2012

WESTERN PACIFIC

120 MPH (+)

161.1° E

16.4° S

APPR. 200 KM NNW OF NEW CALEDONIA

S

TS (3?)

   
THE CURRENTLY CONTINUING LOW SOLAR ACTIVITY INDICATES THE PROBABILITY OF UPCOMING PROTON ERUPTION / STORM

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

87

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

348-470

FLARES >

C

 

 

NP- CH-EXT NORTH CHANGING DEC- 26 DEC- 30- 2012  

 

SOLAR FLUX

113.6

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 2.9

 

M

 

 

unnumbered SOUTH UNCHANGED DEC- 20  

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

02

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

70- 105 nT

CME INFLUENCE

X

 

 

           

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) NOV 13- 17  

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) NOV 17-26  

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

LOW NP CH- EXT

 

faded

15631

75° - 89° W

18° N

 

 

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

faded

15632

71° - 85° W

18° N

 

 

 

 

 

 

FILAMENT ERUPTIONS >

 

 

faded

15633

71 ° -85° W

07° S

                         

faded

15634

47° - 61° W

17° S

 

         

SOLAR/ INTERPLANETARY MEASUREMENTS & DATA PLOTS:

 

faded

15635

60° - 74° W

10° N

 

 

 

 

  ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>>

LOW

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
 

15636

02° - 16° E

13° N

 

DEC- 30

 

 

 

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20121206

^increasing

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

 

15637

06°  - 20° W

06° N

 

DEC- 30

     

 

GENERAL SOLAR ACTIVITY

20121031

20121112

 

 

15638

33 ° - 19° E

11° N

 

JAN- 02

 

 

 

 

GOES ELECTRON FLUX:

 

 

15639

32 ° - 18° E

17° S

 

JAN- 02

 

 

 

 

 

NEWLY EMERGED

15640

18° - 04° E

17° S

 

JAN- 02

 

 

 

 

 

                     
   

total number:

               

NEWLY SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

06

CME Nr.:

         

CMEs FROM FILAMENT ERUPTIONS:

           

REMARKS

 
red letters = currently most active region abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class. alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**

 

GOES- PROTON FLUX:

(DEC- 17/ 15:00 UTC) PROTON FLUX BACK TO NOMINAL LEVEL

 

 

*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson)

 

related ELECTRONS:

> 0.8 MeV- ELECTRON FLUX BELOW TRESHOLD .< 1000 sfu.

 

                         
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2012 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on days one, two, and three (01 Jan, 02 Jan, 03 Jan).

 

 

               
CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)- SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA    

 

  LATEST CME IMPACT MAP (internal  

(date)

CMEs at:

NONE

ARRIVAL:

under analysis

POLARITY: UNKNOWN BETA ALPHA (PROTONS)  

 

X-RAY FLUX (Solar FLARES/ nuclear activity)  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note,, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20121230/ 10: 00UTC

int. CME Nr. >>

90/12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY- NOTE ALSO: NOTE: EXPECTABLE MAGNITUDES MAY (INTENDLY) BE  RATHER UP TO 1 MAGNITUDE LOWER THAN ESTIMATED!

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

15° - 115W

MINOR (1-2)

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

 SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS

EASTERN ATLANTIC

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

N- AMERICA>< AFRICA

 

LOW-MEDIUM

 

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

SOUTH AMERICA

SOUTH

S-AMERICA >< NASZA

 

31- DECEMBER - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

CALIFORNIA

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

COCOS >< AMERICA

 

M 5.5 - 6.5

1-2

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

EASTERN PACIFIC

PACIFIC >< INDO-AUS

 

01- JANUARY - 2013

 

INDUCED CURRENTS

SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5 - 7.0

2-3

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

30° E- 150 ° W

 

 

02- JANUARY - 2013

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

EASTERN EUROPE

EURASIA

 

M 5.5 - 7.0

2-3 (preliminary)

 

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME

USA/ CANADA WEST COAST

*REGIONS> see definition below N- AMERICA >< JUAN DE FUCA

 

 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES* CURRENT DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: LOW    

 

*BY TECTONICS COOLING DOWN = RELATED TECTONIC PLATES ARE EXPECTED  TO BE HEATED BY CME IMPACT

 

geomagnetic field density still on elavated levels- further quakes> M 6.0 likely

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/GEO.magnetometer

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES> ELECTRONS AFTER PROTON EVENT MULTIPLE CME IMPACT

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS > SUDDEN EARTHQUAKES EQ- LATENCY-  (UNTIL DEC- 03?)

 

QUIET

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 483 km/s at 31/0108Z.

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

ALL TEXT REPORTS /LINK

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 

S. RADIATION STORM

   

 

 

MAJOR STORM  

ELECTRONS> 1000pfu

 

 

decreasing

 

 

  PROTON STORM NONE DEC- 14- 17    

internal remarks:

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE NONE

 

 

      RADIO BLACKOUTS NONE NONE    
 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE NONE

 

USUALLY. PROTON EVENTS ARE ASSOCIATED TO MAJOR EARTHQUAKE EVENTS ON THE FIRST DAYS, FOLLOWED BY A PHASE OF APPR. 4 DAYS TRANQUILITY UNTIL ELECTRON STORM BEGINS

 

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

     

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

DECEMBER

 

DAY:

30

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 -TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

 

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.3 - OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO - 2012-12-30 12:21:23 UTC

MAP

EMSC

 

                   

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

This report will be continued later today!

EARTHQUAKE DATA:

EMSC

REV- "Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA

 

listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 4.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. EURASIA QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  

MAIN EARTHQUAKE REGIONS

FREQUENCY/ OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

NUMBER( >M 2) TECTONICS:

HIGHEST MEASURED SINGLE REGIONAL EVENT (EXCEEDING MAGNITUDE M 4.0):

 

SOUTH EASTERN PACIFIC/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC.

FREQUENT MAP

02

PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.1 - MOLUCCA SEA - 2012-12-30 11:33:43 UTC  

REGION CHILE / ARGENTINE ( SA/ NASCA PLATE)

FREQUENT/ OCT- 2012 MAP

11

SOUTH AMERICA >< NASZA M 4.0 - OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE - 2012-12-30 22:43:03 UTC  

REGION PERU- BOLIVIA

FREQUENT MAP

01

PACIFIC >< SOUTH AMERICA >< NASZA M 5.2 - CENTRAL PERU - 2012-12-30 20:49:25 UTC  

REGION INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES/SOUTHERN JAPAN

FREQUENT MAP

02

EURASIA >< / INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.0 - JAVA, INDONESIA - 2012-12-30 07:56:53 UTC  

CONTINENTAL EURASIA INCLUDING ASIA

SELDOM MAP

01

EURASIA>< AFRICA >> ARABIA M 4.3- INDIA-BANGLADESH BORDER REGION- 2012/12/30 08:16:44   

SECONDARY EARTHQUAKE REGIONS

           

HIGHEST MEASURED SINGLE REGIONAL EVENT (EXCEEDING MAGNITUDE M 4.0):

 

PANAMERICA

FREQUENT SINCE 2012 MAP

 

N & SOUTH AMERICA >< COCOS M 5.3 - OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO - 2012-12-30 12:21:23 UTC  

OTHER REGIONS /TREMORS/ SWARMS (> M 3.0)

This section lists events those are rather Earthquake swarms  or volcanic tremors quakes numbered: events > M 2.0 with single events exceeding magnitude M 3.0.  

GULF OF MEXICO ( GOM)/  MAINLY PUERTO RICO REGION

VARYING MAP

04

CARIBBEAN><ATLANTIC >< AFRICA    

PYRENEES ( EARTHQUAKE SWARM)

SELDOM MAP

03

EURASIA (volcanic) M 4.7 - PYRENEES - 2012-12-30 23:35:00 UTC  

WESTERN TURKEY

PERMANENT( higher since 2011) MAP

14

ARABIA>< EURASIA    

EASTERN TURKEY / Near city of VAN

PERMANENT MAP

04

ARABIA><EURASIA    

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

JULY 2012

MAP

04

EURASIA >< ARABIA >< AFRICA    

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012 MAP MAP

06

SAN ANDREAS FAULT >< JUAN DE FUCA M 3.5- CENTRAL CALIFORNIA- 2012/12/30 11:52:35   

AZORES ISLANDS REGION

NOVEMBER - 14-2012 MAP

02

N-AMERICA >< AFRICA >< EURASIA M 3.4 - AZORES ISLANDS, PORTUGAL - 2012-12-30 22:00:22 UTC  

NORTHERN ITALY

SINCE MAR 2012 MAP

01

AFRICA><EURASIA    

ANTARCTIC REGION

SELDOM ( since OCT- 2012) MAP

01

ANTARCTIC>< (mainly)PACIFIC M 5.2 - SCOTIA SEA - 2012-12-30 06:44:44 UTC  
             
                     

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground. com

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell

DEC- 29- 2012

INDIAN OCEAN

45 MPH ()

110.1° E 

21.3° S

APPR. 250 KM OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA

S

L

   

wunderground. com

Tropical Cyclone Freda

DEC- 29- 2012

WESTERN PACIFIC

90 MPH (+)

160.4° E 

12.9° S

APPR. 200 KM SOUTH OF SALOMON ISLANDS

SE

L

   

VARIOUS REPORTS:_

                   
                           

ESA/ VENUS EXPRESS

click on images to get the high resolution versions !

 

 

 

 

20121202

report by:

sci.esa.int

 

A new episode of active volcanism on Venus?

02 Dec 2012 For decades, planetary scientists have debated whether Venus possesses active volcanoes. The latest twist to the tale is provided by data sent back from ESA's Venus Express orbiter, revealing unexplained major changes in the amount of sulphur dioxide gas above the planet's dense cloud layer.The latest contribution to the investigation into active Venusian volcanism comes from the SPICAV-UV spectrometer on board Venus Express, which has been in orbit around the planet since 2006. By studying the SPICAV data, a team of scientists from France and Russia has discovered an unusual change in the amount of sulphur dioxide (SO2) gas in the upper atmosphere.The SPICAV data show that the concentration of SO2 above the main cloud deck increased slightly to about 1000 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) between 2006 and 2007, but then steadily decreased over the next five years, reaching only 100 ppbv by 2012. This is very reminiscent of a pattern observed by Pioneer Venus during the 1980s, the only other multi-year dataset of SO2 measurements....read more...

 

(ESA vid) Flying over Idunn volcano on Venus

^RADAR MAP OF VENUS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
THE CURRENTLY CONTINUING LOW SOLAR ACTIVITY INDICATES THE PROBABILITY OF UPCOMING PROTON ERUPTION / STORM

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

37

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

276-523

FLARES >

C

 

 

NP- CH-EXT NORTH CHANGING DEC- 26 DEC- 30- 2012  

 

SOLAR FLUX

106.7

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 2.2

 

M

 

 

unnumbered SOUTH CHANGING DEC- 20  

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

04

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

55- 130 nT

MINOR CME

X

 

 

           

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) NOV 13- 17  

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) NOV 17-26  

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

NONE  

 

faded

15631

75° - 89° W

18° N

 

 

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

faded

15632

71° - 85° W

18° N

 

 

 

 

 

 

FILAMENT ERUPTIONS >

 

 

faded

15633

71 ° -85° W

07° S

                         

faded

15634

47° - 61° W

17° S

 

         

SOLAR/ INTERPLANETARY MEASUREMENTS & DATA PLOTS:

 

faded

15635

60° - 74° W

10° N

 

 

 

 

  ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>>

LOW

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
 

15636

12° E - 02° W

13° N

 

DEC- 31

 

 

 

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20121206

^increasing

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

 

15637

07° E - 07° W

06° N

 

DEC- 31

     

 

GENERAL SOLAR ACTIVITY

20121031

20121112

 

 

15638

45 ° - 31° E

11° N

 

JAN- 01

 

 

 

 

AR AND CH on 20121229/ STARMAP by solen.info GOES ELECTRON FLUX:

 

 

15639

46 ° - 32° E

17° S

 

JAN- 01

 

 

 

 

 

           

 

 

 

 

 

                     
NEWLY SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

10

             

 

red letters = currently most active region abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class. alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**

 

GOES- PROTON FLUX:

(DEC- 17/ 15:00 UTC) PROTON FLUX BACK TO NOMINAL LEVEL

 

 

*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson)

 

related ELECTRONS:

> 0.8 MeV- ELECTRON FLUX BELOW TRESHOLD .< 1000 sfu.

 

                         
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2012 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Dec, 01 Jan, 02 Jan).

 

 

                 
CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)- SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA    

 

  LATEST CME IMPACT MAP (internal  

(date)

CMEs at:

NONE

ARRIVAL:

under analysis

POLARITY: UNKNOWN BETA ALPHA (PROTONS)  

 

X-RAY FLUX (Solar FLARES/ nuclear activity)  
 

GOES MEASURED A SOLAR WIND SHOCK AT 2 UTC- the arrival of a weak CME observed with a filament eruption on Dec- 27

 
                       

TODAY`S CME ARRIVALS:

ARRIVAL DATE:

 

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT:

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

 

STRENGTH: MINOR: 1-2  

>TRACKING NR

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENT

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN POLARITY: REL. MASS VALUE* MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  

90/ 12

NONE

20° E

08° N

filament eruption after 19:38 UTC

20121227

23:09 UTC

09/ 11:30 UTC 130 nT   10:30 - 22:00  UTC 15° W (main) ALPHA COMPONENTS? 150 EASTERN ATLANTIC >> CALIFORNIA 
REMARKS:

The minor event was the only significant eruption after almost 1 week decreasing and low solar activity.

   

long/lat:

long/lat:

 

*internal

SECONDARY GEOGR. IMPACT REGIONS  

update/ JAN- 01- 2013

CME obviously had- due to geomagnetic field density decreasing afterwards (geomag DEPRESSION) POSITIVE components (protons)   22° E- 150 ° W 15° - 115 ° W     EASTERN EUROPE & US WEST COAST  
                   
LATEST CME EVENTS:        

DATE OF LAST CME ARRIVAL >

 

20121201

NUMBER  88/12

LAST OF CME CLUSTER

STRENGTH >

135 nT

 

 

ERUPTION DAY >

20121123/ 12- 14 UTC 20121126/ 04:26 UTC 20121127/ 04:26 UTC   20121214* after 400 UTC 20121227/ after

LATENCY EFFECTS (this section refers to parameters known to influence terrestrial CME effects

 
CMEs BY TRACKING NRS.>

87/12

unnumbered

88/ 12

unnumbered

89/ 12

90/ 12

  FIRST CME IMPACT CMEs total: APPROACHING: LAST CME IMPACT

estimated latency / first friction quakes

 
ERUPTION TYPE:

filament eruption

minor CME impact form filamenteruption C 4 LDE flare in AR 11612

filament eruption in SOUTH WEST quadrant

surface filament eruption on the edge of Southern Coronal Hole , following a core/ proton event

minor filament eruption in North eastern Sun quadrant  

NOV- 24

04

02

?

estimated latency: until DEC 01?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
 

NOV 13

NOV- 21

03

NOV- 24

proton event ( NOV 08- 12) interfered by CME arrivals (Nov 24. 26)
ESTIMATED ARRIVAL NOV 25- 26 not tracked NOV 30/ DEC 01   DEC 16./ 17 DEC- 30   LATEST PROTON EVENTS (SELDOM)

2012

 
ARRIVED ON:

unknown

DEC- 30- after 10 UTCUTC DEC- 01- after 01:30 UTC DEC- 09/ after 08 UTC minor impact on DEC 18/ after 9:00 UTC DEC 30 after 09/ 12 UTC   SOLAR EVENT DATE PROTON FLUX UNITS (pfu) PROTON EMISSION/ START PROTON EMISSION/ END ELECTRON INCREASE/ BEGIN ELECTRON INCREASE/LATENCY/ END  
HIGHEST VALUE IN GEOMAGNETIC FIELD   125 nT 140 nT minor/ 125 120 nT (proton influence/ geomagnetic disturbance 130 nT  

DEC- 14

09 pfu

DEC 14/ 9 UTC

DEC 17/15 UTC DEC 17 DEC- 21

 

ESTIMATED EFFECTS (1-3)         PROTON EVENT! likely had alpha components (+)  

NOV- 08

02 pfu

NOV- 08

NOV- 12

NOV- 14/ 16 UTC NOV 24 (by CME arrivals)  
                 

SEP- 28/

13 pfu

SEP- 28

OCT- 02

OCT- 09

NOV- 03  

VARIOUS EXTERNAL SOURCES( CME)

ACE/ EPAM: ELECTRONS

ACE/SIS: PROTONS

RU/ MOSCOW: NEUTRONS

 

NASA/ISWA/animation of interplanetary CME evolution a.m.o.

 

NOAA ARCHIVES (all plots)

NASA/ NOAA- PROTON FLUX/ arch

GOES/ 3 days X-RAY FLUX

GOES/ ELECTRONS

GOEShp ( MAG)

 

NASA/ ACE: CME and SOLAR WIND/Analysis system

Magn complexity/ particle acceleration

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note,, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20121230/ 10:00 UTC

int. CME Nr. >>

90/12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY- NOTE ALSO: NOTE: EXPECTABLE MAGNITUDES MAY (INTENDLY) BE  RATHER UP TO 1 MAGNITUDE LOWER THAN ESTIMATED!

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

15° - 115W

MINOR (1-2)

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

 SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS

EASTERN ATLANTIC

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

N- AMERICA>< AFRICA

 

LOW-MEDIUM

 

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

SOUTH AMERICA

SOUTH

S-AMERICA >< NASZA

 

30- DECEMBER - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

CALIFORNIA

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

COCOS >< AMERICA

 

M 5.5 - 6.5

1-2 (CME?)

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

EASTERN PACIFIC

PACIFIC >< INDO-AUS

 

31- DECEMBER - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS

SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5 - 7.0

2-3

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

30° E- 150 ° W

 

 

01- JANUARY - 2013

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

EASTERN EUROPE

EURASIA

 

M 5.5 - 7.0

2-3 (preliminary)

 

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME

USA/ CANADA WEST COAST

*REGIONS> see definition below N- AMERICA >< JUAN DE FUCA

 

 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES* CURRENT DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: LOW    

 

*BY TECTONICS COOLING DOWN = RELATED TECTONIC PLATES ARE EXPECTED  TO BE HEATED BY CME IMPACT

 

geomagnetic field density still on elavated levels- further quakes> M 6.0 likely

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/GEO.magnetometer

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES> ELECTRONS AFTER PROTON EVENT MULTIPLE CME IMPACT

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS > SUDDEN EARTHQUAKES EQ- LATENCY-  (UNTIL DEC- 03?)

 

QUIET

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 492 km/s at 30/2035Z. Total IMF reached 11.8 nT at 30/0720Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10.2 nT at 30/1338Z.

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

ALL TEXT REPORTS /LINK

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 

S. RADIATION STORM

   

 

 

MAJOR STORM  

ELECTRONS> 1000pfu

 

 

decreasing

 

 

  PROTON STORM NONE DEC- 14- 17    

internal remarks:

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE NONE

 

 

      RADIO BLACKOUTS NONE NONE    
 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE NONE

 

USUALLY. PROTON EVENTS ARE ASSOCIATED TO MAJOR EARTHQUAKE EVENTS ON THE FIRST DAYS, FOLLOWED BY A PHASE OF APPR. 4 DAYS TRANQUILITY UNTIL ELECTRON STORM BEGINS

 

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT:

 

EXPLANATIONS>

Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.

Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./

Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME. Colors from orange to light red mark GRADUAL IMPACTS OF MULTIPLE CMEs CLUSTERS.

 

HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST>

INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions!

STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS

The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER a LATENCY period due to CME IMPACT on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES within the RED until the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Read "latency remarks"

 

REGIONS

REGION "A"

REGION "B"

REGION "C"

REGION" D"

REGION "E"

REGION "F"

 

 

REGIONS COVERED BY LATEST CME IMPACT>

EASTERN EURASIA- CHINA- INDONESIA-WESTERN PACIFIC PHILIPPINES--AUSTRALIA WEST ALEUT./ KAMCHATKA- JAPAN/EAST- AUSTRALIA/ (EAST), PNG. NZL WESTERN USA+ WEST COAST- EASTERN PACIFIC- CANADA-ALASKA

EASTERN ATLANTIC/ PANAMERICA/ CENTRAL USA/ CENTRAL AND WEST PARTS OF SOUTH AMERICA

CENTRAL (WEST) EUROPE/ AFRICA, EAST ATLANTIC. CANARIES - CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA/ EAST

INDIA & INDIAN OCEAN- AFRICA (EAST), ARABIA ASIA MINOR

RELATED CME EVENT: 20121227

 

RELATED TECTONIC BOUNDARIES>

WESTERN PACIFIC< EAST EURASIA>< INDO-AUSTRALIA

NORTH AMERICA (W) >< EURASIA (E) ><PACIFIC (E)

NORTH AMERICA/ incl. Microplates ><PACIFIC

AFRICA >< CARRIBEAN >< SOUTH AMERIA >< NASCA>< COCOS

EURASIA <> N-AMERICA/WESTCARRIBEAN ><AFRICA

EURASIA><ARABIA ><INDO-AUSTRALIA

CME ARRIVAL:

 

UTC TIME ZONES >

..

.......

...

...

......

..

20121230/after 10 UTC

 

LONGITUDES>

120° E- 90° E

135° E- 180° - 135° W

90° W- 135° W

45° W- 90° W

45° W - 00° W- 45° E

45° E- 90° E

Nr.: 90/ 12

 

     
     

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

DECEMBER

 

DAY:

29

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 -TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

 

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.8 - HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN - 2012-12-29 17:50:54 UTC

MAP

EMSC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EARTHQUAKES TODAY

REPORTS:

NAME of REGION

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME

MAGNITUDE

DEPTH

CATHEGORY

GOOGLE EARTH:

 

 

HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN

35.86 N ; 70.65 E

2012-12-29 17:50:54 UTC M 5.8

129 km

unknown

---

 

 

     
                   

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

This report will be continued later today!

EARTHQUAKE DATA:

EMSC

REV- "Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA

 

listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 4.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. EURASIA QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  

MAIN EARTHQUAKE REGIONS

FREQUENCY/ OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

NUMBER( >M 2) TECTONICS:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 4.0):

 

SOUTH EASTERN PACIFIC/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC.

FREQUENT MAP

03

PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.5 - BISMARCK SEA - 2012-12-29 07:59:16 UTC  

REGION CHILE / ARGENTINE ( SA/ NASCA PLATE)

FREQUENT/ OCT- 2012 MAP

05

SOUTH AMERICA >< NASZA M 4.3 - TARAPACA, CHILE - 2012-12-29 06:04:16 UTC  

REGION PERU- BOLIVIA

FREQUENT MAP

01

PACIFIC >< SOUTH AMERICA >< NASZA M 4.6 - CENTRAL PERU - 2012-12-29 01:57:41 UTC  

REGION INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES/SOUTHERN JAPAN

FREQUENT MAP

03

EURASIA >< / INDO AUSTRALIA M 4.6 - BANDA SEA - 2012-12-29 20:29:53 UTC  

KAMCHATKA ISLANDS , KURIL ISLANDS NORTHERN JAPAN

FREQUENT MAP

03

N-AMERICA >< EURASIA >< PACIFIC><PHIL. M 5.4 - NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN - 2012-12-29 14:59:37 UTC  

CONTINENTAL EURASIA INCLUDING ASIA

SELDOM MAP

04

EURASIA>< AFRICA >> ARABIA M 3.9 - LAKE BAYKAL REGION, RUSSIA - 2012-12-29 00:07:31 UTC  

SECONDARY EARTHQUAKE REGIONS

           

SINGLE EVENTS EXCEEDING MAGNITUDE M 4.0:

 

CANADA, ALASKA/ (CASCADIAN SZ)

SOMETIMES MAP

05

NORTH-AMERICA ><EXPLORER PLATE M 4.3 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS., ALASKA- 2012/12/29 10:29:43   

PANAMERICA

FREQUENT SINCE 2012 MAP

03

N & SOUTH AMERICA >< COCOS M 4.4- OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA- 2012/12/29 09:53:07  

MEDITERRANEAN SEA/ SPAIN

FREQUENT MAP

06

AFRICA >< EURASIA M 3.6 - SPAIN - 2012-12-29 06:57:27 UTC  

OTHER REGIONS /TREMORS/ SWARMS (> M 3.0)

This section lists events those are rather Earthquake swarms  or volcanic tremors quakes numbered: events > M 2.0 with single events exceeding magnitude M 3.0.  

GULF OF MEXICO ( GOM)/

VARYING MAP

01

CARIBBEAN><ATLANTIC >< AFRICA    

WESTERN TURKEY

PERMANENT( higher since 2011) MAP

06

ARABIA>< EURASIA    

EASTERN TURKEY / Near city of VAN

PERMANENT MAP

04

ARABIA><EURASIA    

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

JULY 2012

MAP

05

EURASIA >< ARABIA >< AFRICA    

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012 MAP MAP

03

SAN ANDREAS FAULT >< JUAN DE FUCA M 2.8 SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIFORNIA- 2012/12/29 22:35:09   

CANARY AND AZORES ISLANDS REGION

NOVEMBER - 14-2012 MAP

00

N-AMERICA >< AFRICA >< EURASIA    

NORTHERN ITALY

SINCE MAR 2012 MAP

02

     
             

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

note: allthough CME impacts are regularly coincident at least with TEMPORARY volcano acticity increases, my time does not allow to introduce such DETAILLED resp. "FINE TUNED" statistic reports

< stats

 

as required to communicate this. This section therefor can only refer to changes in "ALERT LEVELS" as published by GVP. Click on the buttons (right) to find more detailled internal reports: volcano watch (global statistics) and regional volcano maps (all volcanoes worldwide and current activities)

maps >

 
volcano-discovery/gadget

note: this report does NOT necessarely represent all currently global active volcanoes!

      2012 report by: GVP  
           

20121213- 29

report by:

GVP  

NO WEEKLY ACTIVITY REPORT WAS ISSUED THIS WEEK BY THE  SMITHSONIANS GVP.

In November the Smithsonian institute had out of service for almost 3 weeks, , when several staff members went for holidays and had left the volcano acticity page in a unreadable state. Now obvioulsy GVP staff was obviously scheduled for thier next- annual Christmas holidays. I don`t know how far their report is really necessary resp. important for issues such as air traffic, but I don`t know any other instutute either that would publish such an halfly reliable report ..

 

                             

 

                     

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground. com Tropical Depression Wukong DEC- 24- 2012 WESTERN PACIFIC 30 MPH ()

109.3° E 

7.9° N

APPR. 500 KMNORTHEAST OF MALAYSIA WSW TS    
wunderground. com Tropical Cyclone Mitchell DEC- 29- 2012 INDIAN OCEAN 45 MPH () 110.6° E  17° S APPR 500 KM OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA S L    
wunderground. com Tropical Cyclone Freda DEC- 29- 2012 WESTERN PACIFIC 65 MPH () 159.9° E  12.6° S APPR. 500 KM NNW OF NEW CALEDONIA SSW L  
THE CURRENTLY CONTINUING LOW SOLAR ACTIVITY INDICATES THE PROBABILITY OF UPCOMING PROTON ERUPTION / STORM

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

49

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

270-383

FLARES >

C

01

 

NP- CH-EXT NORTH GROWING DEC- 26    

 

SOLAR FLUX

104.3

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 2.0

 

M

 

 

unnumbered SOUTH DECAYING DEC- 20  

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

03

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

55- 120 nT

SOLAR WINDS

X

 

 

           

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) NOV 13- 17  

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) NOV 17-26  

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

NONE  

 

faded

15631

75° - 89° W

18° N

 

 

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

faded

15632

71° - 85° W

18° N

 

 

 

 

 

 

FILAMENT ERUPTIONS >

 

 

faded

15633

71 ° -85° W

07° S

                         

faded

15634

47° - 61° W

17° S

 

         

SOLAR/ INTERPLANETARY MEASUREMENTS & DATA PLOTS:

 
 

15635

60° - 74° W

10° N

 

 

 

 

  ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>>

LOW

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
 

15636

22 ° - 08° E

13° N

 

DEC- 31

 

 

 

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20121206

^increasing

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

 

15637

22 ° - 08° E

06° N

 

DEC- 31

     

 

GENERAL SOLAR ACTIVITY

20121031

20121112

 

 

15638

58 ° - 44° E

11° N

 

JAN- 01

 

 

 

 

GOES 13/ PROTON FLUX: GOES ELECTRON FLUX:

 

 

15639

58 ° - 44° E

17° S

 

JAN- 01

 

 

 

 

 

           

 

 

 

 

 

                     
NEWLY SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

06

             

 

red letters = currently most active region abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class. alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**

 

GOES- PROTON FLUX:

(DEC- 17/ 15:00 UTC) PROTON FLUX BACK TO NOMINAL LEVEL

 

 

*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson)

 

related ELECTRONS:

> 0.8 MeV- ELECTRON FLUX < 1000 sfu.

 

                         
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2012 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 29/1933Z from Region 1638 (N12E43). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare for days 1-3 (30 Dec, 31 Dec, 01 Jan).

 

 

               
CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)- SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA    

 

  LATEST CME IMPACT MAP (internal  

(date)

CMEs at:

NONE

ARRIVAL:

under analysis

POLARITY: UNKNOWN BETA ALPHA (PROTONS)  

 

X-RAY FLUX (Solar FLARES/ nuclear activity)  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note,, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20121130/ 1:30 UTC

int. CME Nr. >>

88/12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT: LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

15° - 135W

STRONGER (2 of 3)

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

 SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS

(SOUTH-) EAST PACIFIC

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

INDO/AUS >< PACIFIC

 

LOW-MEDIUM

 

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

WESTERN EUROPE

SOUTH

N-AMERICA >< E-EURASIA

 

29- DECEMBER - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

ATLANTIC

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

AFRICA >< AMERICAS

 

M 5.5 - 7.0

2-3

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

ALL NORTH AND SOUTH AMERICAS

N- AMERICA>< S- AMERICA- (ALL)

 

30- DECEMBER - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS

SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5 - 6.5

1-2 (CME?)

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

global

global

 

31- DECEMBER - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

 

 

 

M 5.5 - 7.0

2-3 (preliminary)

 

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME

 

*REGIONS> see definition below  

 

 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES* CURRENT DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: ELECTRONS < 1000 pfu    

 

*BY TECTONICS COOLING DOWN = RELATED TECTONIC PLATES ARE EXPECTED  TO BE HEATED BY CME IMPACT

 

geomagnetic field density still on elavated levels- further quakes> M 6.0 likely

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/GEO.magnetometer

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES> ELECTRONS AFTER PROTON EVENT MULTIPLE CME IMPACT

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS > SUDDEN EARTHQUAKES EQ- LATENCY-  (UNTIL DEC- 03?)

 

QUIET

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 349 km/s at 29/0722Z. Total IMF reached 6.7 nT at 29/0318Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5.9 nT at 29/0319Z.

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

ALL TEXT REPORTS /LINK

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 

S. RADIATION STORM

   

 

 

MAJOR STORM  

ELECTRONS> 1000pfu

 

 

decreasing

 

 

  PROTON STORM NONE DEC- 14- 17    

internal remarks:

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE NONE

 

 

first time during this 11 year cycle, geomag field intensity gradually rose during the past week to values around 125 nT, those are rather typical for minor CME impacts.

    RADIO BLACKOUTS NONE NONE    
 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE NONE

 

                       

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT:

 

EXPLANATIONS>

Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.

Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./

Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME. Colors from orange to light red mark GRADUAL IMPACTS OF MULTIPLE CMEs CLUSTERS.

 

HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST>

INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions!

STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS

The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER a LATENCY period due to CME IMPACT on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES within the RED until the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Read "latency remarks"

 

REGIONS

REGION "A"

REGION "B"

REGION "C"

REGION" D"

REGION "E"

REGION "F"

 

 

REGIONS COVERED BY LATEST CME IMPACT>

EASTERN EURASIA- CHINA- INDONESIA-WESTERN PACIFIC PHILIPPINES--AUSTRALIA WEST ALEUT./ KAMCHATKA- JAPAN/EAST- AUSTRALIA/ (EAST), PNG. NZL WESTERN USA+ WEST COAST- EASTERN PACIFIC- CANADA-ALASKA

EASTERN ATLANTIC/ PANAMERICA/ CENTRAL USA/ CENTRAL AND WEST PARTS OF SOUTH AMERICA

CENTRAL (WEST) EUROPE/ AFRICA, EAST ATLANTIC. CANARIES - CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA/ EAST

INDIA & INDIAN OCEAN- AFRICA (EAST), ARABIA ASIA MINOR

RELATED CME EVENT: 20121127 (LDE)

 

RELATED TECTONIC BOUNDARIES>

WESTERN PACIFIC< EAST EURASIA>< INDO-AUSTRALIA

NORTH AMERICA (W) >< EURASIA (E) ><PACIFIC (E)

NORTH AMERICA/ incl. Microplates ><PACIFIC

AFRICA >< CARRIBEAN >< SOUTH AMERIA >< NASCA>< COCOS

EURASIA <> N-AMERICA/WESTCARRIBEAN ><AFRICA

EURASIA><ARABIA ><INDO-AUSTRALIA

CME ARRIVAL:

 

UTC TIME ZONES >

..

.......

...

...

......

..

20121130/ 01:30 UTC

 

LONGITUDES>

120° E- 90° E

135° E- 180° - 135° W

90° W- 135° W

45° W- 90° W

45° W - 00° W- 45° E

45° E- 90° E

Nr.: 88/ 12

 

     

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

DECEMBER

 

DAY:

28

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 -TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

 

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.5 - SULAWESI, INDONESIA - 2012-12-28 17:32:18 UTC

MAP

EMSC

 

                   

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

This report will be continued later today!

EARTHQUAKE DATA:

EMSC

REV- "Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA

 

(listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 4.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0)  

MAIN EARTHQUAKE REGIONS

FREQUENCY/ OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

NUMBER( >M 2) TECTONICS:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 4.0):

 

SOUTH EASTERN PACIFIC/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC.

FREQUENT MAP

02

PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.1 - KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION - 2012-12-28 10:35:46 UTC  

REGION CHILE / ARGENTINE ( SA/ NASCA PLATE)

FREQUENT/ OCT- 2012 MAP

12

SOUTH AMERICA >< NASZA M 4.2 - REGION METROPOLITANA, CHILE - 2012-12-28 18:35:23 UTC  

REGION PERU- BOLIVIA

FREQUENT MAP

01

PACIFIC >< SOUTH AMERICA >< NASZA M 4.7 - SOUTHEAST OF EASTER ISLAND - 2012-12-28 14:27:10 UTC  

REGION INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES/SOUTHERN JAPAN

FREQUENT MAP

01

EURASIA >< / INDO AUSTRALIA M 4.7 - BANDA SEA - 2012-12-28 10:13:16 UTC  

KAMCHATKA ISLANDS , KURIL ISLANDS NORTHERN JAPAN

FREQUENT MAP

 

N-AMERICA >< EURASIA >< PACIFIC><PHIL. M 5.5 - KOMANDORSKIYE OSTROVA REGION - 2012-12-28 13:42:35 UTC  

SECONDARY EARTHQUAKE REGIONS

           

SINGLE EVENTS EXCEEDING MAGNITUDE M 4.0:

 

CANADA, ALASKA/ (CASCADIAN SZ)

SOMETIMES MAP

02

NORTH-AMERICA ><EXPLORER PLATE M 4.4- FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA- 2012/12/28 13:04:17   

PANAMERICA

FREQUENT SINCE 2012 MAP

02

N & SOUTH AMERICA >< COCOS M 4.7 - EL SALVADOR - 2012-12-28 16:23:49 UTC  

OTHER REGIONS /TREMORS/ SWARMS (> M 3.0)

This section lists events those are rather Earthquake swarms  or volcanic tremors quakes numbered: events > M 2.0 with single events exceeding magnitude M 3.0.  

GULF OF MEXICO ( GOM)/

VARYING MAP

02 ( Max 3.3)

CARIBBEAN><ATLANTIC >< AFRICA    

CANARY AND AZORES ISLANDS REGION

NOVEMBER - 14-2012 MAP

00

N-AMERICA >< AFRICA >< EURASIA    

NORTHERN ITALY

SINCE MAR 2012 MAP

00

     
             

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

note: allthough CME impacts are regularly coincident at least with TEMPORARY volcano acticity increases, my time does not allow to introduce such DETAILLED resp. "FINE TUNED" statistic reports

< stats

 

as required to communicate this. This section therefor can only refer to changes in "ALERT LEVELS" as published by GVP. Click on the buttons (right) to find more detailled internal reports: volcano watch (global statistics) and regional volcano maps (all volcanoes worldwide and current activities)

maps >

 
volcano-discovery/gadget

note: this report does NOT necessarely represent all currently global active volcanoes!

      2012 report by: GVP  
REGION:
NAME/USGS datalink:
GEOGRAPHIC POSITION: LAT. / LONG.
VOLCANO NUMBER
VOLCANO TYPE
WEBCAM DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL MAP: LOCAL SURVEY  
GUATEMALA PACAYA 14°22'51"N/ 90°36'4"W 1042-11= Complex volcano Hi* PACAYA
NONE

DECEMBER- 28- 2012

 

CENTRAM

INSUMVEH

 

Wikipedia:

                 

 

           

20130101

report by:

GVP  

INSIVUMEH noted in a special report that on 28 December patterns of activity from Pacaya's MacKenney cone changed; three explosions detected at 1150 generated plumes that rose less than 500 m and drifted 5 km W and SW. During 30 December-1 January bluish-white plumes rose 50 m and drifted S and SW.

 

                             

 

                     

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground. com Tropical Depression Wukong DEC- 24- 2012 WESTERN PACIFIC 30 MPH ()

112.2°E 

9.7° N

APPR. 300 KM OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN VIETNAM WSW TS    

VARIOUS REPORTS:_

                   
                           

NICARAGUA/ SAN CHRISTOBAL ERUPTION

 

 

 

 

 

 

20121227

report by>

news.com.au

 

1500 farmers stay put as volcano erupts in Nicaragua

ABOUT 1500 farmers living on the slopes of the San Cristobal volcano have refused to leave, despite being ordered to evacuate as the volcano spews gas, sand and ash. "People have not evacuated because we do not want to go and leave the area abandoned," Maria Pereira told AFP on Wednesday. Pereira lives in Grecia 4, a community of about 600 people at the base of the volcano, in the Chinandega department. She said columns of ash "bathed the trees, houses, and roads in white" and "pretty sand fell" in the morning. She said by early afternoon volcanic activity had decreased, though in the evening new columns of ash shot up. In another community near the volcano, Bethlehem, some farmers resisted efforts of civil defence officials to convince them to obey the evacuation order....read more...

 

US STORMS AND EXTREME SNOWFALL

 

 

 

 

 

 

20121227

report by>

chron.com

 

Storm blows through East; 135K in dark in Arkansas

CONCORD, N.H. (AP) — A muted version of a winter storm that has killed more than a dozen people across the eastern half of the country plodded across the Northeast on Thursday, trapping airliners in snow or mud and frustrating travelers still trying to return home after Christmas. The storm, which was blamed for at least 16 deaths farther south and west, brought plenty of wind, rain and snow to the Northeast when it blew in Wednesday night. Lights generally remained on and cars mostly stayed on the road, unlike many harder-hit places including Arkansas, where 200,000 homes and businesses lost power...read more...

 

                                 
THE CURRENTLY CONTINUING LOW SOLAR ACTIVITY INDICATES THE PROBABILITY OF UPCOMING PROTON ERUPTION / STORM

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

54

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

271-287

FLARES >

C

 

 

NP- CH-EXT NORTH DECAYING DEC- 26    

 

SOLAR FLUX

105.8

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 2.0

 

M

 

 

unnumbered SOUTH DECAYING DEC- 20  

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

02

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

80- 130 nT

SOLAR WINDS?

X

 

 

CH 548 APR. 30° S CLOSED DEC- 19 DEC- 23 RECURRENT

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) NOV 13- 17  

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) NOV 17-26  

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

NONE  

 

faded

15631

75° - 89° W

18° N

 

 

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

faded

15632

71° - 85° W

18° N

 

 

 

 

 

 

REMARKS >

QUICK FLUCTUATIONS IN CORONAL HOLE ACTIVITY

 

faded

15633

71 ° -85° W

07° S

                         

faded

15634

47° - 61° W

17° S

 

         

SOLAR/ INTERPLANETARY MEASUREMENTS & DATA PLOTS:

 
 

15635

43° - 57° W

10° N

 

 

 

 

  ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>>

LOW

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
 

15636

32 ° - 18° E

13° N

 

DEC- 31

 

 

 

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20121206

^increasing

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

 

15637

35 ° - 21° E

06° N

 

DEC- 31

     

 

GENERAL SOLAR ACTIVITY

20121031

20121112

 

NEWLY EMERGED

15638

71 ° - 57° E

11° N

 

 

 

 

 

 

GOES 13/ PROTON FLUX: GOES ELECTRON FLUX:

 

NEWLY EMERGED

15639

71 ° - 57° E

17° S

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

           

 

 

 

 

 

   

total number:

               

NEWLY SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

06

CME Nr.:

             

CMEs FROM FILAMENT ERUPTIONS:

01

Nr. 90/12

NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT 20121227/ 2309 UTC GEMINI DEC- 30- 2012

 

red letters = currently most active region abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class. alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**

 

GOES- PROTON FLUX:

(DEC- 17/ 15:00 UTC) PROTON FLUX BACK TO NOMINAL LEVEL

 

 

*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson)

 

related ELECTRONS:

> 0.8 MeV- ELECTRON FLUX < 1000 sfu.

 

                         
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2012 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. A 10 degree filament, centered near N08E20, was observed erupting in H-alpha imagery beginning at 27/1939 UTC. STEREO-A COR2 imagery showed an associated faint CME beginning at 27/2309 UTC with the majority of the ejecta directed north of the ecliptic. We are currently waiting on further imagery to determine possible geoeffectiveness. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Dec, 30 Dec, 31 Dec).

 

 

               
CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)- SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA    

 

  LATEST CME IMPACT MAP (internal  

(date)

CMEs at:

19: 39 UTC

ARRIVAL:

DEC/ 30/ 2012

POLARITY: UNKNOWN BETA ALPHA (PROTONS)  

 

X-RAY FLUX (Solar FLARES/ nuclear activity)  

TRACKING NR.:

90/ 12

20121228/ 00:39 UTC 20121228/ 04:40 UTC AR AND CH on 20121227 AR AND CH on 20121228  

AR AND CH on 20121229

 

ACTIVE REGIONS

NONE  

 

 

Earth directed?

partial halo  

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

NORTHERN HEMISPHERE  

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

minor filament eruption

none  
TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS (1) STEREO-"Ahead" (2) SoHO/ LASCO C 3 STAR MAP by solen.info

STAR MAP by solen.info

 

will follow tomorrow

 

Abbreviations >

LDE=

Long Duration Event

 

 

 

 

 

 

try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

internal remarks

PRELIMINARY REPORT

               

2012

alien-homepage.de

 

(images 1, 2) The event mentioned by USAF was a filament eruption  and associated to a larger backside event and a strange flare directly above the Northern solar pole on Dec. 27 The faint halo CME mentioned in the USAF report was very weak and was probably just mentioned because the solar activity had indeed gradually decreased after Christmas to the probably lowest values in 2012. Such a low solar activity is not unusual and occures rather frequently at this time of the year during the winter and summer soltices. With sunspots and x/ ray background flux currently beeing very low. The quick fluctuation in Coronal Hole activity ( = CHs appearing and fading/ and as currently also frequently observed/ also reappearing again) frequently observed since October 2012* and especially during the past days was the only real REMARKABLE sign of the current 11 year solar maximum. Both PARAMETERS especially such CH fluctuations/ COULD ALSO WELL BE THE SIGN OF A NEW DANGEROUS SOLAR PROTON OUTBREAK TO BE EXPECTED SOON! More comparable cases are needed to approve whether that is a real indicator for such seldom proton events, those are maybe the only REAL THREADS but also the most dangerous solar activities those can cause GLOBAL DISASTERS OF ALL KINDS.  Both megaquakes in Sumatra 2004 and Japan 2011 however followed one of these seldom proton activities.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note,, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20121130/ 1:30 UTC

int. CME Nr. >>

88/12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT: LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

15° - 135W

STRONGER (2 of 3)

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

 SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS

(SOUTH-) EAST PACIFIC

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

INDO/AUS >< PACIFIC

 

DECREASING

 

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

WESTERN EUROPE

SOUTH

N-AMERICA >< E-EURASIA

 

28- DECEMBER - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

ATLANTIC

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

AFRICA >< AMERICAS

 

M 5.5 - 6.5

1-2-

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

ALL NORTH AND SOUTH AMERICAS

N- AMERICA>< S- AMERICA- (ALL)

 

29- DECEMBER - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS

SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5 - 7.0

2-3

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

global

global

 

30- DECEMBER - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

 

 

 

M 5.5 - 6.5

1-2 ( preliminary)

 

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME

 

*REGIONS> see definition below  

 

 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES* CURRENT DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: ELECTRONS < 1000 pfu    

 

*BY TECTONICS COOLING DOWN = RELATED TECTONIC PLATES ARE EXPECTED  TO BE HEATED BY CME IMPACT

 

geomagnetic field density still on elavated levels- further quakes> M 6.0 likely

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/GEO.magnetometer

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES> ELECTRONS AFTER PROTON EVENT MULTIPLE CME IMPACT

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS > SUDDEN EARTHQUAKES EQ- LATENCY-  (UNTIL DEC- 03?)

 

QUIET

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 314 km/s at 28/0506Z. Total IMF reached 6.2 nT at 28/1254Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5.3 nT at 28/1804Z.

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

ALL TEXT REPORTS /LINK

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 

S. RADIATION STORM

   

 

 

MAJOR STORM  

ELECTRONS> 1000pfu

 

 

decreasing

 

 

  PROTON STORM NONE DEC- 14- 17    

internal remarks:

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE NONE

 

 

      RADIO BLACKOUTS NONE NONE    
 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE NONE

 

USUALLY. PROTON EVENTS ARE ASSOCIATED TO MAJOR EARTHQUAKE EVENTS ON THE FIRST DAYS, FOLLOWED BY A PHASE OF APPR. 4 DAYS TRANQUILITY UNTIL ELECTRON STORM BEGINS

 

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

     

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

DECEMBER

 

DAY:

27

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 -TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

 

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.8 - OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE - 2012-12-27 00:37:08 UTC

MAP

EMSC

 

                   

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

This report will be continued later today!

EARTHQUAKE DATA:

EMSC

REV- "Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA

 

(listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 4.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0)  

MAIN EARTHQUAKE REGIONS

FREQUENCY/ OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

NUMBER( >M 2) TECTONICS:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 4.0):

 

SOUTH EASTERN PACIFIC/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC.

FREQUENT MAP

04

PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA M 4.9 - SAMOA ISLANDS REGION - 2012-12-27 15:32:17 UTC  

REGION CHILE / ARGENTINE ( SA/ NASCA PLATE)

FREQUENT/ OCT- 2012 MAP

26

SOUTH AMERICA >< NASZA M 4.8 - OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE - 2012-12-27 01:18:06 UTC  

REGION ECUADOR- PERU- BOLIVIA

FREQUENT MAP

01

PACIFIC >< SOUTH AMERICA >< NASZA M 4.8 - EASTER ISLAND REGION - 2012-12-27 06:57:09 UTC  

REGION INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES/SOUTHERN JAPAN

FREQUENT MAP

02

EURASIA >< / INDO AUSTRALIA M 4.8 - PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION - 2012-12-27 17:10:18 UTC  

SECONDARY EARTHQUAKE REGIONS

           

SINGLE EVENTS EXCEEDING MAGNITUDE M 4.0:

 

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012 MAP MAP

02

SAN ANDREAS FAULT >< JUAN DE FUCA M 4.8 - GULF OF CALIFORNIA - 2012-12-27 13:05:02 UTC  

PANAMERICA

FREQUENT SINCE 2012 MAP

01

N & SOUTH AMERICA >< COCOS M 4.5 - OFFSHORE GUATEMALA - 2012-12-27 10:41:13 UTC  

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

JULY 2012

MAP

09

EURASIA >< ARABIA >< AFRICA M 4.1 - DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE - 2012-12-27 16:09:10 UTC  

OTHER REGIONS /TREMORS/ SWARMS (> M 3.0)

This section lists events those are rather Earthquake swarms  or volcanic tremors quakes numbered: events > M 2.0 with single events exceeding magnitude M 3.0.  

GULF OF MEXICO ( GOM)/

VARYING MAP

02

CARIBBEAN><ATLANTIC >< AFRICA    

WESTERN TURKEY

PERMANENT( higher since 2011) MAP

21

ARABIA>< EURASIA    

EASTERN TURKEY / Near city of VAN

PERMANENT MAP

07

ARABIA><EURASIA    

CANARY AND AZORES ISLANDS REGION

NOVEMBER - 14-2012 MAP

00

N-AMERICA >< AFRICA >< EURASIA    

NORTHERN ITALY

SINCE MAR 2012 MAP

01

     
             
                     

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground. com Tropical Depression Wukong DEC- 24- 2012 WESTERN PACIFIC 30 MPH (-)

118.6° E

10.5° N

ABOVE/ NEAR PALAWAN ISLAND/ PHILIPPINES WSW TS    
                                 
THE CURRENTLY CONTINUING LOW SOLAR ACTIVITY INDICATES THE PROBABILITY OF UPCOMING PROTON ERUPTION / STORM

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

78

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

270-362

FLARES >

C

01

 

NP- CH-EXT NORTH GROWING DEC- 26    

 

SOLAR FLUX

106.8

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 2.3

 

M

 

 

unnumbered SOUTH REEMERGING DEC- 20  

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

00

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

70- 120 nT

 

X

 

 

CH 548 APR. 30° S REEMERGING DEC- 19 DEC- 23 RECURRENT

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) NOV 13- 17  

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) NOV 17-26  

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

NONE  

 

           

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

rotating out

         

 

 

 

 

FILAMENT ERUPTIONS >

 

 

faded

15631

75° - 89° W

18° N

 

 

                     

faded

15632

71° - 85° W

18° N

 

 

       

SOLAR/ INTERPLANETARY MEASUREMENTS & DATA PLOTS:

 

faded

15633

71 ° -85° W

07° S

   

 

 

 

  ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>>

LOW

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 

faded

15634

47° - 61° W

17° S

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20121206

^increasing

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

 

15635

30° - 44° W

10° N

       

 

GENERAL SOLAR ACTIVITY

20121031

20121112

 

 

15636

47 ° - 33° E

13° N

 

DEC- 31

 

 

 

 

GOES 13/ PROTON FLUX: GOES ELECTRON FLUX:

 

NEWLY EMERGED

15637

48 ° - 34° E

06° N

 

DEC- 31

 

 

 

 

 

       

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

       

 

           
NEWLY SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

06

             

 

red letters = currently most active region abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class. alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**

 

GOES- PROTON FLUX:

(DEC- 17/ 15:00 UTC) PROTON FLUX BACK TO NOMINAL LEVEL

 

 

*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson)

 

related ELECTRONS:

> 0.8 MeV- ELECTRON FLUX < 1000 sfu.

 

                         
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2012 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 27/0224Z from Region 1635 (N13W45). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight Chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Dec, 29 Dec, 30 Dec).

 

 

               
CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)- SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA    

 

  LATEST CME IMPACT MAP (internal  

(date)

CMEs at:

NONE

ARRIVAL:

under analysis

POLARITY: UNKNOWN BETA ALPHA (PROTONS)  

 

X-RAY FLUX (Solar FLARES/ nuclear activity)  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note,, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20121130/ 1:30 UTC

int. CME Nr. >>

88/12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT: LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

15° - 135W

STRONGER (2 of 3)

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

 SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS

(SOUTH-) EAST PACIFIC

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

INDO/AUS >< PACIFIC

 

DECREASING

 

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

WESTERN EUROPE

SOUTH

N-AMERICA >< E-EURASIA

 

27- DECEMBER - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

ATLANTIC

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

AFRICA >< AMERICAS

 

M 5.5 - 7.0

2-3-

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

ALL NORTH AND SOUTH AMERICAS

N- AMERICA>< S- AMERICA- (ALL)

 

28- DECEMBER - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS

SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5 - 6.5

1-2-

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

global

global

 

29- DECEMBER - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

 

 

 

M 5.5 - 7.0

2-3- ( preliminary)

 

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME

 

*REGIONS> see definition below  

 

 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES* CURRENT DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: ELECTRONS < 1000 pfu    

 

*BY TECTONICS COOLING DOWN = RELATED TECTONIC PLATES ARE EXPECTED  TO BE HEATED BY CME IMPACT

 

geomagnetic field density still on elavated levels- further quakes> M 6.0 likely

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/GEO.magnetometer

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES> ELECTRONS AFTER PROTON EVENT MULTIPLE CME IMPACT

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS > SUDDEN EARTHQUAKES EQ- LATENCY-  (UNTIL DEC- 03?)

 

QUIET

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 326 km/s at 27/0200Z. Total IMF reached 5.1 nT at 26/2206Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4.0 nT at 26/2227Z.

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

ALL TEXT REPORTS /LINK

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 

S. RADIATION STORM

   

 

 

MAJOR STORM  

ELECTRONS> 1000pfu

 

 

decreasing

 

 

  PROTON STORM NONE DEC- 14- 17    

internal remarks:

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE NONE

 

 

      RADIO BLACKOUTS NONE NONE    
 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE NONE

 

USUALLY. PROTON EVENTS ARE ASSOCIATED TO MAJOR EARTHQUAKE EVENTS ON THE FIRST DAYS, FOLLOWED BY A PHASE OF APPR. 4 DAYS TRANQUILITY UNTIL ELECTRON STORM BEGINS

 

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

     

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

DECEMBER

 

DAY:

26

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 -TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

 

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.3 - BIO-BIO, CHILE - 2012-12-26 13:17:57 UTC

MAP

EMSC

 

                   

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

This report will be continued later today!

EARTHQUAKE DATA:

EMSC

REV- "Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA

 

(listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 4.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0)  

MAIN EARTHQUAKE REGIONS

FREQUENCY/ OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

NUMBER( >M 2) TECTONICS:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 4.0):

 

SOUTH EASTERN PACIFIC/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC.

FREQUENT MAP

04

PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.2 - ASCENSION ISLAND REGION - 2012-12-26 20:24:27 UTC  

REGION CHILE / ARGENTINE ( SA/ NASCA PLATE)

FREQUENT/ OCT- 2012 MAP

10

SOUTH AMERICA >< NASZA M 4.7 - ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE - 2012-12-26 09:46:42 UTC  

REGION PERU- BOLIVIA

FREQUENT MAP

03

PACIFIC >< SOUTH AMERICA >< NASZA M 4.1 - POTOSI, BOLIVIA - 2012-12-26 02:35:14 UTC  

REGION INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES/SOUTHERN JAPAN

FREQUENT MAP 02 EURASIA >< / INDO AUSTRALIA M 4.9 - NIAS REGION, INDONESIA - 2012-12-26 19:08:04 UTC  

KAMCHATKA ISLANDS , KURIL ISLANDS NORTHERN JAPAN

FREQUENT MAP 01 N-AMERICA >< EURASIA >< PACIFIC><PHIL. M 4.0 - KURIL ISLANDS - 2012-12-26 07:50:22 UTC  

CONTINENTAL EURASIA INCLUDING ASIA

SELDOM MAP 02 EURASIA>< AFRICA >> ARABIA M 4.9 - MYANMAR - 2012-12-26 13:59:45 UTC  

SECONDARY EARTHQUAKE REGIONS

           

SINGLE EVENTS EXCEEDING MAGNITUDE M 4.0:

 

CANADA, ALASKA/ (CASCADIAN SZ)

SOMETIMES MAP   NORTH-AMERICA ><EXPLORER PLATE    

PANAMERICA

FREQUENT SINCE 2012 MAP   N & SOUTH AMERICA >< COCOS    

MEDITERRANEAN SEA/ SPAIN: 7 Quakes

FREQUENT MAP   AFRICA >< EURASIA    

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

JULY 2012

MAP   EURASIA >< ARABIA >< AFRICA    

NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND ARCTIC SEA

MAINLY DURING SUMMERTIME MAP

 

NORTH-AMERICA >< EURASIA    

OTHER REGIONS /TREMORS/ SWARMS (> M 3.0)

This section lists events those are rather Earthquake swarms  or volcanic tremors quakes numbered: events > M 2.0 with single events exceeding magnitude M 3.0.  

NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND ARCTIC SEA

MAINLY DURING SUMMERTIME MAP

 

NORTH-AMERICA >< EURASIA    

GULF OF MEXICO ( GOM)/

VARYING MAP   CARIBBEAN><ATLANTIC >< AFRICA    

GERMANY / NEAR TO KOBLENZ ( EIFEL VOLCANIC FIELD)

SELDOM MAP   EURASIA (volcanic)    

WESTERN TURKEY

PERMANENT( higher since 2011) MAP   ARABIA>< EURASIA    

EASTERN TURKEY / Near city of VAN

PERMANENT MAP   ARABIA><EURASIA    

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

JULY 2012

MAP   EURASIA >< ARABIA >< AFRICA    

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012 MAP MAP   SAN ANDREAS FAULT >< JUAN DE FUCA    

CANARY AND AZORES ISLANDS REGION

NOVEMBER - 14-2012 MAP   N-AMERICA >< AFRICA >< EURASIA    

NORTHERN ITALY

SINCE MAR 2012 MAP        
             
                     

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground. com Tropical Depression Wukong DEC- 24- 2012 WESTERN PACIFIC 40 MPH (+)

23.1° E

11.6° N

ABOVE/ NEAR GUMARES ISLAND/ PHILIPPINES WNW TS    

VARIOUS REPORTS:_

                   
                           

SAN CHRISTOBAL ERUPTION / NICARAGUA

 

 

 

 

 

 

20121226

report by:

bbc.co.uk

 

Nicaragua San Cristobal volcano: Hundreds told to leave

Nicaraguan authorities have ordered the evacuation of several hundred people living near San Cristobal volcano. Officials also declared an amber alert for five sq km ( two sq miles) around the volcano, which began spewing ash and gas on Tuesday. However, some 1,500 farmers are refusing to leave the area, the French news agency AFP reports. First Lady and government spokeswoman Rosario Murillo said 15 eruptions had been recorded since Tuesday night. The eruptions were small, but Ms Murillo said it was impossible to know for certain whether there would be larger ones that could put the population at risk. She urged families living in the area to follow evacuation routes as a precaution. The Nicaraguan army has sent rescue teams to the area. Some communities are resisting efforts to persuade them to leave. ...read more...

 

TORNADOES/ SNOWSTORMS / USA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

20121226

report by:

bbc.co.uk

 

Severe snowstorm hits US, bears down on East Coast

A severe winter storm that whipped up tornadoes in the southern US has brought heavy snow to the Midwest and threatens disruption in the east. At least six people have been killed and authorities have told people to stay at home rather than brave freezing temperatures and treacherous roads. A state of emergency has been declared in Mississippi and Alabama after the storm downed power lines. Hundreds of flights have been grounded by snow and blizzards. More delays are expected as the storm moves towards New York state and Maine, where as much as 18 inches (46cm) of snow is expected in the next 24 hours.Little Rock, Arkansas, saw its first snow on Christmas Day in 83 years, while in neighbouring Oklahoma seven inches of snow was blamed for a 21-vehicle pile-up on an interstate highway outside Oklahoma City. Thirty-four tornadoes were reported in the southern states of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama on Tuesday. A large section of a church roof in Mobile, Alabama, was ripped off by a twister. Falling trees claimed the lives of two people in Texas and Louisiana. Deaths were also reported on the roads in Oklahoma and Arkansas. More than 200,000 people are said to be without power...read more...

 

                                 
CURRENT CONTINUING LOW SOLAR ACTIVITY INDICATES PROBABILITY OF UPCOMING PROTON ERUPTION / STORM

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

82

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

272-366

FLARES >

C

06

 

           

 

SOLAR FLUX

109.0

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 3.0

 

M

 

 

unnumbered SOUTH DECAYING DEC- 20  

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

02

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

60- 115 nT

 

X

 

 

CH 548 APR. 30° S DECAYING DEC- 19 DEC- 23 RECURRENT

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) NOV 13- 17  

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) NOV 17-26  

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

NONE  

 

           

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

rotating out          

 

 

 

 

FILAMENT ERUPTIONS >

 

 

faded

15631

75° - 89° W

18° N

 

 

                     

faded

15632

71° - 85° W

18° N

 

 

       

SOLAR/ INTERPLANETARY MEASUREMENTS & DATA PLOTS:

 
 

15633

71 ° -85° W

07° S

   

 

 

 

  ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>>

LOW

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
faded

15634

47° - 61° W

17° S

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20121206

^increasing

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

 

15635

16° - 30° W

10° N

       

 

GENERAL SOLAR ACTIVITY

20121031

20121112

 

NEWLY EMERGED

15636

62 ° -48° E

13° N

 

DEC- 31

 

 

 

 

GOES 13/ PROTON FLUX: GOES ELECTRON FLUX:

 

           

 

 

 

 

 

       

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

       

 

           
                     

 

red letters = currently most active region abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class. alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**

 

GOES- PROTON FLUX:

(DEC- 17/ 15:00 UTC) PROTON FLUX BACK TO NOMINAL LEVEL

 

 

*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson)

 

related ELECTRONS:

> 0.8 MeV- ELECTRON FLUX < 1000 sfu.

 

                         
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2012 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 26/0455Z from Region 1635 (N12W32). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on days one, two, and three (27 Dec, 28 Dec, 29 Dec).

 

 

               
CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)- SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA    

 

  LATEST CME IMPACT MAP (internal  

(date)

CMEs at:

NONE

ARRIVAL:

under analysis

POLARITY: UNKNOWN BETA ALPHA (PROTONS)  

 

X-RAY FLUX (Solar FLARES/ nuclear activity)  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note,, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20121130/ 1:30 UTC

int. CME Nr. >>

88/12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT: LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

15° - 135W

STRONGER (2 of 3)

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

 SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS

(SOUTH-) EAST PACIFIC

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

INDO/AUS >< PACIFIC

 

DECREASING

 

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

WESTERN EUROPE

SOUTH

N-AMERICA >< E-EURASIA

 

26- DECEMBER - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

ATLANTIC

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

AFRICA >< AMERICAS

 

M 5.5 - 6.5

1-2-

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

ALL NORTH AND SOUTH AMERICAS

N- AMERICA>< S- AMERICA- (ALL)

 

27- DECEMBER - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS

SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5 - 7.0

2-3-

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

global

global

 

28- DECEMBER - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

 

 

 

M 5.5 - 6.5

1-2- ( preliminary)

 

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME

 

*REGIONS> see definition below  

 

 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES* CURRENT DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: ELECTRONS < 1000 pfu    

 

*BY TECTONICS COOLING DOWN = RELATED TECTONIC PLATES ARE EXPECTED  TO BE HEATED BY CME IMPACT

 

geomagnetic field density still on elavated levels- further quakes> M 6.0 likely

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/GEO.magnetometer

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES> ELECTRONS AFTER PROTON EVENT MULTIPLE CME IMPACT

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS > SUDDEN EARTHQUAKES EQ- LATENCY-  (UNTIL DEC- 03?)

 

QUIET

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 336 km/s at 25/2322Z. Total IMF reached 6.6 nT at 26/1144Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 26/1052Z.

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

ALL TEXT REPORTS /LINK

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 

S. RADIATION STORM

   

 

 

MAJOR STORM  

ELECTRONS> 1000pfu

 

 

decreasing

 

 

  PROTON STORM NONE DEC- 14- 17    

internal remarks:

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE NONE

 

 

      RADIO BLACKOUTS NONE NONE    
 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE NONE

 

USUALLY. PROTON EVENTS ARE ASSOCIATED TO MAJOR EARTHQUAKE EVENTS ON THE FIRST DAYS, FOLLOWED BY A PHASE OF APPR. 4 DAYS TRANQUILITY UNTIL ELECTRON STORM BEGINS

 

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

     

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

DECEMBER

 

DAY:

25

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 -TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

 

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.2 - BLACK SEA, OFFSHORE GEORGIA - 2012-12-25 22:44:33 UTC

MAP:

EMSC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EARTHQUAKES TODAY

REPORTS:

NAME of REGION

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME

MAGNITUDE

DEPTH

CATHEGORY

GOOGLE EARTH:

 

 

BLACK SEA, OFFSHORE GEORGIA

42.51 N ; 41.03 E

2012-12-25 22:44:33 UTC M 5.2

10 km

unknown

---

 

please note: this earthquake report makes much work and quakes below 5 are rather irrelevant (except volcanic trremors). From Dec- 24- 12 on, only earthquakes above M 4.0 will be listed here      

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

This report will be continued later today!

EARTHQUAKE DATA:

EMSC

REV- "Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA

 

MAIN EARTHQUAKE REGIONS ( > M 4.0)

FREQUENCY/ OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

NUMBER TECTONICS:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY:

 

BLACK SEA, OFFSHORE GEORGIA/ AFTERQUAKES

DEC/ 23/ 2012 MAP

03

EURASIA >< ARABIA M 4.5 - BLACK SEA, OFFSHORE GEORGIA - 2012-12-25 22:55:50 UTC  

REGION CHILE / ARGENTINE ( SA/ NASCA PLATE)

FREQUENT/ OCT- 2012 MAP

10

SOUTH AMERICA >< NASZA M 4.7 - JUJUY, ARGENTINA - 2012-12-25 20:26:27 UTC  

SOUTH EASTERN PACIFIC/ OTHER REGIONS

FREQUENT MAP

01

PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.2 - MOLUCCA SEA - 2012-12-25 07:34:43 UTC  

REGION INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES/SOUTHERN JAPAN

FREQUENT MAP

02

EURASIA >< / INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.2 - SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA - 2012-12-25 08:46:30 UTC  

CONTINENTAL EURASIA INCLUDING ASIA

SELDOM MAP

01

EURASIA>< AFRICA >> ARABIA M 5.1 - PAKISTAN - 2012-12-25 17:36:29 UTC  

SECONDARY EARTHQUAKE REGIONS  ( > M 4.0)

                     

CANADA, ALASKA/ (CASCADIAN SZ)

SOMETIMES MAP

01

NORTH-AMERICA ><EXPLORER PLATE M 4.6 - SOUTHERN ALASKA - 2012-12-25 03:43:32 UTC  

NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND ARCTIC SEA

MAINLY DURING SUMMERTIME MAP

01

NORTH-AMERICA >< EURASIA M 3.4 - NORWEGIAN SEA - 2012-12-25 03:44:38 UTC  

OTHER REGIONS /TREMORS/ SWARMS: (> M 3.0)

                     

WESTERN TURKEY

PERMANENT( higher since 2011) MAP

14

ARABIA>< EURASIA    

EASTERN TURKEY / Near city of VAN

PERMANENT MAP

11

ARABIA><EURASIA    

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

JULY 2012

MAP

04

EURASIA >< ARABIA >< AFRICA    

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012 MAP MAP

01

SAN ANDREAS FAULT >< JUAN DE FUCA    

CANARY AND AZORES ISLANDS REGION

NOVEMBER - 14-2012 MAP

00

N-AMERICA >< AFRICA >< EURASIA    

NORTHERN ITALY

SINCE MAR 2012 MAP

00

     
             

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

note: allthough CME impacts are regularly coincident at least with TEMPORARY volcano acticity increases, my time does not allow to introduce such DETAILLED resp. "FINE TUNED" statistic reports

< stats

 

as required to communicate this. This section therefor can only refer to changes in "ALERT LEVELS" as published by GVP. Click on the buttons (right) to find more detailled internal reports: volcano watch (global statistics) and regional volcano maps (all volcanoes worldwide and current activities)

maps >

 
volcano-discovery/gadget

note: this report does NOT necessarely represent all currently global active volcanoes!

     

2012

report by:

GVP  
     
REGION:
NAME/USGS datalink:
GEOGRAPHIC POSITION: LAT. / LONG.
VOLCANO NUMBER
VOLCANO TYPE
WEBCAM DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL MAP: LOCAL SURVEY  
NICARAGUA

SAN CRISTOBAL

12°42'6"N/ 87°0'13"W

1404-02=

Stratovolcano

Hi*

SAN CRISTOBAL

DEC- 25- 2012

 

CENTRAM

INETER

 

Wikipedia:

                 

 

           

2012

report by:

GVP  

no GVP report yet. report by: BBC

( late report by GVP on Jan 03 2013): INETER reported that on 26 December four explosions at San Cristóbal produced ash plumes that were observed in satellite imagery drifting W and reaching the Pacific Ocean. Ashfall was reported in areas within 5-6 km of the volcano. The next day explosions produced ash plumes that rose 200 m above the crater. On 28 December gas-and-ash plumes drifted NW, W, and SW, reaching the Pacific Ocean and the coast of El Salvador. Explosions were detected until 1100. Sulfur dioxide emissions continued and drifted W and SW; the emissions decreased the next day.

 

                             

 

                     

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground. com Tropical Depression Wukong DEC- 24- 2012 WESTERN PACIFIC 35 MPH () 128.5° E 

10.1° N

APPR. 250 KM EAST OF LEYTE ISLAND WNW TD    
wunderground. com Tropical Cyclone Four DEC- 22- 2012 INDIAN OCEAN 40 MPH ()

52.0° E

7.2° N

APPR. 180 KM EAST OFF THE COAST OF SOMALIA W L    

VARIOUS REPORTS:_

                   
                           

SEAQUAKES IN BLACK SEA, NEAR THE COAST OF GEORGIA / RUSSIA

 

 

 

 

 

20121226

report by:

kyivpost.com

 

Georgians panicky, expect major earthquake on Black Sea coast (read also: Earthquake, pipeline explosion rattles Russia's Black Sea coast)

Thousands of people have remained outdoors in Batumi, Poti, Kobuleti and Kutaisi for several hours in fear of a devastating earthquake. The quake rumors started spreading after tremors early on Wednesday morning damaged dozens of homes on the Black Sea coast, according to municipal authorities. Georgian television reported the evacuation of hospital patients in Batumi. Doctors said the patients insisted on the evacuation. Fishermen said that fish had left the coastal waters, which might be an omen of a powerful earthquake, Batumi residents told reporters. The Georgian National Seismology Center told Interfax it was impossible to forecast an earthquake and the panic was totally groundless. The center said that quakes happened in the Black Sea along the Georgian coast in the previous century, although that area was subject to less seismic activity than the Caucasian Ridge. Dozens of tremors have happened in the sea at the depth of ten kilometers, 40 kilometers away from Anaklia, since December 23. The most powerful of them were the earthquakes on December 23 (5.7 points) and last night (5 and 5.5 points). ...read more...

 

DISSOLVING SALT DOME/ LOUSIANA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2012

report by:

ksla.com

 

Giant Louisiana sinkhole swallows more land

BAYOU CORNE, LA (WAFB) -Texas-Brine, the company that owns the cavern that is suspected of being the cause of the sinkhole in Assumption Parish, reports that a small slough-in happened Tuesday night on the Southwest side of the sinkhole.The Assumption Parish OEP says they estimate a section of 20' by 30' was consumed by the sinkhole near the Pipeline Right of Way. The massive sinkhole plaguing south Louisiana ate a large section of land on October 30, 2012. Officials stated a 20 foot by 80 foot chunk located on the east side of the sinkhole collapsed. About 500 square feet of earth was lost on Oct. 9. An exact measurement of the sinkhole is unknown at this time. About 150 homes have been under an evacuation order since Aug. 3. Officials say a second vent well is "shut-in" over concern about a highly toxic gas. Crews are trying to find the best way to control small amounts of Hydrogen Sulfide gas detected at the well....read more...

 

COLD WAVES

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

20121226

report by:

bbc.co.uk

 

North India cold snap kills 25

At least 25 people have died in a cold snap sweeping across northern India, state-run broadcaster All India Radio has said. The majority of deaths were in the state of Uttar Pradesh. Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana are among the other northern states badly hit. Most deaths were among homeless and elderly people. Heavy fog has disrupted flights and train services out of the capital, Delhi, and neighbouring states. The capital Delhi is also affected by the cold spell, with temperatures dipping to 7C and fog disrupting flight schedules. Dense fog has also affected train services and flights in Rajasthan, where temperatures fell to 3.8C. An official from the India Meteorological Department said the cold weather would continue for a number of days...read more...

 

                                 
CURRENT CONTINUING LOW SOLAR ACTIVITY INDICATES PROBABILITY OF UPCOMING PROTON ERUPTION / STORM

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

58

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

286-359

FLARES >

C

05

 

           

 

SOLAR FLUX

113

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 2.9

 

M

 

 

unnumbered SOUTH DECAYING DEC- 20  

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

02

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

70- 120 nT

 

X

 

 

CH 548 APR. 30° S DECAYING DEC- 19 DEC- 23 RECURRENT

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) NOV 13- 17  

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) NOV 17-26  

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

NONE  

 

           

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

rotating out          

 

 

 

 

FILAMENT ERUPTIONS >

 

 

faded

15631

75° - 89° W

18° N

 

 

                     

faded

15632

71° - 85° W

18° N

 

 

       

SOLAR/ INTERPLANETARY MEASUREMENTS & DATA PLOTS:

 
 

15633

57 ° -71° W

07° S

   

 

 

 

  ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>>

LOW

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
 

15634

47° - 61° W

17° S

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20121206

^increasing

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

 

15635

03° - 17° W

10° N

       

 

GENERAL SOLAR ACTIVITY

20121031

20121112

 

           

 

 

 

 

GOES 13/ PROTON FLUX: GOES ELECTRON FLUX:

 

           

 

 

 

 

 

       

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

       

 

           
                     

 

red letters = currently most active region abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class. alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**

 

GOES- PROTON FLUX:

(DEC- 17/ 15:00 UTC) PROTON FLUX BACK TO NOMINAL LEVEL

 

 

*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson)

 

related ELECTRONS:

> 0.8 MeV- ELECTRON FLUX < 1000 sfu.

 

                         
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2012 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 25/1304Z from Region 1635 (N11W17). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on days one, two, and three (26 Dec, 27 Dec, 28 Dec).

 

 

               
CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)- SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA    

 

  LATEST CME IMPACT MAP (internal  

(date)

CMEs at:

NONE

ARRIVAL:

under analysis

POLARITY: UNKNOWN BETA ALPHA (PROTONS)  

 

X-RAY FLUX (Solar FLARES/ nuclear activity)  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note,, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20121130/ 1:30 UTC

int. CME Nr. >>

88/12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT: LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

15° - 135W

STRONGER (2 of 3)

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

 SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS

(SOUTH-) EAST PACIFIC

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

INDO/AUS >< PACIFIC

 

DECREASING

 

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

WESTERN EUROPE

SOUTH

N-AMERICA >< E-EURASIA

 

25- DECEMBER - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

ATLANTIC

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

AFRICA >< AMERICAS

 

M 5.5 - 7.0

2-3

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

ALL NORTH AND SOUTH AMERICAS

N- AMERICA>< S- AMERICA- (ALL)

 

26- DECEMBER - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS

SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5 - 6.5

1-2-

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

global

global

 

27- DECEMBER - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

 

 

 

M 5.5 - 7.0

2-3- ( preliminary)

 

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME

 

*REGIONS> see definition below  

 

 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES* CURRENT DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: ELECTRONS < 1000 pfu    

 

*BY TECTONICS COOLING DOWN = RELATED TECTONIC PLATES ARE EXPECTED  TO BE HEATED BY CME IMPACT

 

geomagnetic field density still on elavated levels- further quakes> M 6.0 likely

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/GEO.magnetometer

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES> ELECTRONS AFTER PROTON EVENT MULTIPLE CME IMPACT

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS > SUDDEN EARTHQUAKES EQ- LATENCY-  (UNTIL DEC- 03?)

 

QUIET

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 344 km/s at 25/0252Z. Total IMF reached 5.3 nT at 25/0334Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3.9 nT at 25/1629Z.

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

ALL TEXT REPORTS /LINK

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 

S. RADIATION STORM

   

 

 

MAJOR STORM  

ELECTRONS> 1000pfu

 

 

decreasing

 

 

  PROTON STORM NONE DEC- 14- 17    

internal remarks:

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE NONE

 

 

      RADIO BLACKOUTS NONE NONE    
 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE NONE

 

USUALLY. PROTON EVENTS ARE ASSOCIATED TO MAJOR EARTHQUAKE EVENTS ON THE FIRST DAYS, FOLLOWED BY A PHASE OF APPR. 4 DAYS TRANQUILITY UNTIL ELECTRON STORM BEGINS

 

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

     

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

DECEMBER

 

DAY:

24

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 -TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

 

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.2 - NEAR EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA - 2012-12-24 07:54:08 UTC

MAP

EMSC

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

This report will be continued later today!

EARTHQUAKE DATA:

EMSC

REV- "Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA

 

MAIN EARTHQUAKE REGIONS ( > M 4.0)

FREQUENCY/ OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

NUMBER TECTONICS:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY:

 

SOUTH EASTERN PACIFIC/ OTHER REGIONS

FREQUENT MAP

01

PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA M 4.8 - VANUATU - 2012-12-24 06:30:16 UTC  

REGION CHILE / ARGENTINE ( SA/ NASCA PLATE)

FREQUENT/ OCT- 2012 MAP

16

SOUTH AMERICA >< NASZA M 5.1 - ATACAMA, CHILE - 2012-12-24 12:12:37 UTC  

REGION PERU

FREQUENT MAP

01

PACIFIC >< SOUTH AMERICA >< NASZA M 4.6 - SOUTHERN PERU - 2012-12-24 05:31:35 UTC  

REGION INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES/SOUTHERN JAPAN

FREQUENT MAP

02

EURASIA >< / INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.1 - KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA - 2012-12-24 12:58:25 UTC  

KAMCHATKA ISLANDS , KURIL ISLANDS NORTHERN JAPAN

FREQUENT MAP

03

N-AMERICA >< EURASIA >< PACIFIC><PHIL. M 4.9 - KURIL ISLANDS - 2012-12-24 11:05:01 UTC  

CONTINENTAL EURASIA INCLUDING ASIA

SELDOM MAP

02

EURASIA>< AFRICA >> ARABIA M 4.0 - TAJIKISTAN - 2012-12-24 14:36:27 UTC  

CONTINENTAL AFRICA

SELDOM MAP

01

< AFRICA > *volcanic  M 4.9 - LAKE TANGANYIKA REGION, CONGO - 2012-12-24 14:35:32 UTC  

SECONDARY EARTHQUAKE REGIONS  ( > M 4.0)

   

 

               

CANADA, ALASKA/ (CASCADIAN SZ)

SOMETIMES MAP

05

NORTH-AMERICA ><EXPLORER PLATE M 4.4 - SOUTHERN ALASKA - 2012-12-24 17:28:26 UTC  

PANAMERICA

FREQUENT SINCE 2012 MAP

02

N & SOUTH AMERICA >< COCOS M 4.3 - COSTA RICA - 2012-12-24 16:49:18 UTC  

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

JULY 2012

MAP

02

EURASIA >< ARABIA >< AFRICA M 4.2 - DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE - 2012-12-24 22:41:15 UTC  

OTHER REGIONS /TREMORS/ SWARMS:

   

 

               

BLACK SEA, OFFSHORE GEORGIA/ AFTERQUAKES

DEC/ 23/ 2012    

05 * (max M 3.4)

EURASIA >< ARABIA    

US WEST COAST SAN ANDREAS FAULT

AUGUST- 28- 2012 MAP MAP

01 (max.M 3.2)

SAN ANDREAS FAULT >< JUAN DE FUCA    

CANARY AND AZORES ISLANDS REGION

NOVEMBER - 14-2012 MAP

00

N-AMERICA >< AFRICA >< EURASIA    

NORTHERN ITALY

SINCE MAR 2012 MAP

01

     
             
                     

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground. com Tropical Cyclone Four DEC- 22- 2012 INDIAN OCEAN 40 MPH (+)

54.4° E

8.4° N

APPR. 300 KM EAST OFF THE COAST OF SOMALIA W L    

VARIOUS REPORTS:_

                   
                           
                           
     

US WEST COAST & CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE

           

20121225

report by> columbian.com  

Unshaken complacency: Unprepared for quake

What is a Cascadia quake? Just off the Pacific coast -- about 50 miles out to sea, and stretching from Northern California to British Columbia -- a 700-mile fault marks where the Juan de Fuca geologic plate is sliding under the North America plate. The process, which started about 20 million years ago, is pushing North America over Juan de Fuca at a rate of about 1.5 inches a year. Rock from the dipping, or subducting, plate melts as it moves under the continent, feeding the volcanic arc that includes Mount St. Helens, Mount Hood and Mount Rainier. Pressure also builds up along the fault. The plates don't move smoothly but tend to stick and lock against one another, resisting movement until the fault suddenly slips, creating deep and potentially very deadly earthquakes. There's no way to predict exactly when the fault will move again. The last time it happened was just over 300 years ago -- when the entire 700-mile stretch slipped in the span of about five minutes, creating a magnitude 9.0 earthquake and a massive tsunami recorded in Japanese history as occurring Jan. 26, 1700.

There are three categories of earthquakes, all of which occur here. • Shallow or crustal quakes happen along faults near the surface, up to about 10 miles deep. Such faults include the Mount St. Helens Seismic Zone, the Lacamas Creek Fault and the Portland Hills Fault. Shallow faults can trigger by themselves, or could be triggered by deeper earthquakes created through plate tectonics. • Interplate quakes happen when one geologic plate affects another, such as parts of Juan de Fuca melting and scraping beneath the North America plate. Those quakes tend to be deeper, perhaps 30 miles below Earth's surface. • Subduction zone earthquakes happen when plates stick and then suddenly slip against one another at plate boundaries, such as the Cascadia fault. Every year, the Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network records about 2,000 earthquakes in Washington and Oregon. Most are shallow quakes with magnitudes of less than 3.0. Larger shallow quakes are far less frequent but can be dangerous. The strongest shallow quake recorded since white settlers came to the region was an estimated magnitude 7.4 back in 1872. It was felt in Oregon, Idaho and Washington....read more...

 

                                 
CURRENT CONTINUING LOW SOLAR ACTIVITY INDICATES PROBABILITY OF UPCOMING PROTON ERUPTION / STORM

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

53

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

286-347

FLARES >

C

03

 

unnumbered NORTH FADED DEC- 17 DEC 21- 22  

 

SOLAR FLUX

113.1

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 2.1

 

M

 

 

unnumbered SOUTH DECAYING DEC- 20  

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

02

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

80- 110 nT

 

X

 

 

CH 548 APR. 30° S GROWING DEC- 19 DEC- 23  

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) NOV 13- 17  

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) NOV 17-26  

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

NONE  

 

           

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

rotating out          

 

 

 

 

FILAMENT ERUPTIONS >

 

 

faded

15631

75° - 89° W

18° N

 

 

                     

faded

15632

71° - 85° W

18° N

 

 

       

SOLAR/ INTERPLANETARY MEASUREMENTS & DATA PLOTS:

 
 

15633

43 ° -57° W

07° S

 

 

 

 

  ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>>

LOW

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
 

15634

37° - 51° W

17° S

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20121206

^increasing

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

 

15635

10° E- 04° W

10° N

 

DEC- 25

     

 

GENERAL SOLAR ACTIVITY

20121031

20121112

 

           

 

 

 

 

GOES 13/ PROTON FLUX: GOES ELECTRON FLUX:

 

           

 

 

 

 

 

       

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

       

 

           
                     

 

red letters = currently most active region abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class. alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**

 

GOES- PROTON FLUX:

(DEC- 17/ 15:00 UTC) PROTON FLUX BACK TO NOMINAL LEVEL

 

 

*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson)

 

related ELECTRONS:

DEC- 21- 2012 > 0.8 MeV- ELECTRON FLUX < 1000 sfu.

 

                         
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2012 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 24/1614Z from Region 1635 (N11W05). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on days one, two, and three (25 Dec, 26 Dec, 27 Dec).

 

 

                 
CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)- SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA    

 

  LATEST CME IMPACT MAP (internal  

(date)

CMEs at:

NONE

ARRIVAL:

under analysis

POLARITY: UNKNOWN BETA ALPHA (PROTONS)  

 

X-RAY FLUX (Solar FLARES/ nuclear activity)  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note,, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20121130/ 1:30 UTC

int. CME Nr. >>

88/12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT: LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

15° - 135W

STRONGER (2 of 3)

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

 SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS

(SOUTH-) EAST PACIFIC

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

INDO/AUS >< PACIFIC

 

DECREASING

 

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

WESTERN EUROPE

SOUTH

N-AMERICA >< E-EURASIA

 

24- DECEMBER - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

ATLANTIC

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

AFRICA >< AMERICAS

 

M 5.5 - 7.0

2-3

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

ALL NORTH AND SOUTH AMERICAS

N- AMERICA>< S- AMERICA- (ALL)

 

25- DECEMBER - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS

SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5 - 7.0

2-3

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

global

global

 

26- DECEMBER - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

 

 

 

M 5.5 - 6.5

1-2- ( preliminary)

 

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME

 

*REGIONS> see definition below  

 

 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES* CURRENT DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: ELECTRONS < 1000 pfu    

 

*BY TECTONICS COOLING DOWN = RELATED TECTONIC PLATES ARE EXPECTED  TO BE HEATED BY CME IMPACT

 

geomagnetic field density still on elavated levels- FURTHER QUAKES higher M 6.0 likely!

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/GEO.magnetometer

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES> ELECTRONS AFTER PROTON EVENT MULTIPLE CME IMPACT

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS > SUDDEN EARTHQUAKES EQ- LATENCY-  (UNTIL DEC- 03?)

 

QUIET

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 346 km/s at 24/1518Z. Total IMF reached 5.9 nT at 24/1456Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5.6 nT at 24/1516Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 160 pfu.

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

ALL TEXT REPORTS /LINK

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 

S. RADIATION STORM

   

 

 

MAJOR STORM  

ELECTRONS> 1000pfu

 

 

decreasing

 

 

  PROTON STORM NONE DEC- 14- 17    

internal remarks:

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE NONE

 

 

      RADIO BLACKOUTS NONE NONE    
 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE NONE

 

USUALLY. PROTON EVENTS ARE ASSOCIATED TO MAJOR EARTHQUAKE EVENTS ON THE FIRST DAYS, FOLLOWED BY A PHASE OF APPR. 4 DAYS TRANQUILITY UNTIL ELECTRON STORM BEGINS

 

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

     

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

DECEMBER

 

DAY:

23

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 -TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

 

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.6 - BLACK SEA, OFFSHORE GEORGIA - 2012-12-23 13:31:42 UTC

MAP:

EMSC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EARTHQUAKES TODAY

REPORTS:

NAME of REGION

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME

MAGNITUDE

DEPTH

CATHEGORY

GOOGLE EARTH:

 

 

BLACK SEA, OFFSHORE GEORGIA

42.51 N ; 40.92 E

2012-12-23 13:31:42 UTC M 5.6

15 km

unknown

---

 

please note: this earthquake report makes much work and quakes below 5 are rather irrelevant (except volcanic trremors). From Dec- 24- 12 on, only earthquakes above M 4.0 will be listed here          

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

 

EARTHQUAKE DATA:

EMSC

REV- "Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA

 

MAIN EARTHQUAKE REGIONS ( > M 4.0)

FREQUENCY/ OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

NUMBER TECTONICS:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY:

 

SOUTH EASTERN PACIFIC/ OTHER REGIONS

FREQUENT MAP

05

PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.2 - VANUATU - 2012-12-23 00:29:57 UTC  

REGION INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES/SOUTHERN JAPAN

FREQUENT MAP

02

EURASIA >< / INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.2 - KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA - 2012-12-23 12:52:25 UTC  

CONTINENTAL EURASIA INCLUDING ASIA

SELDOM MAP

05

EURASIA>< AFRICA >> ARABIA M 4.2 - HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN - 2012-12-23 12:59:50 UTC  

SECONDARY EARTHQUAKE REGIONS  ( > M 4.0)

   

 

               

CANADA, ALASKA/ (CASCADIAN SZ)

SOMETIMES MAP

05

NORTH-AMERICA ><EXPLORER PLATE M 4.2. FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA- 2012/12/23 23:41:40   

PANAMERICA

FREQUENT SINCE 2012 MAP

01

N & SOUTH AMERICA >< COCOS M 4.3- OFFSHORE GUATEMALA- 2012/12/23 11:01:16  

AFTERQUAKES: BLACK SEA, OFFSHORE GEORGIA

SINGLE EVENT MAP

16

ARABIA>< EURASIA M 3.9 - BLACK SEA, OFFSHORE GEORGIA - 2012-12-23 15:18:35 UTC  

MINOR REGIONS /SWARMS:

   

 

               

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012 MAP MAP

05 (Max M 3.7)

SAN ANDREAS FAULT >< JUAN DE FUCA    

CANARY AND AZORES ISLANDS REGION

NOVEMBER - 14-2012 MAP

00

N-AMERICA >< AFRICA >< EURASIA    

NORTHERN ITALY

SINCE MAR 2012 MAP

00

     
             

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

note: allthough CME impacts are regularly coincident at least with TEMPORARY volcano acticity increases, my time does not allow to introduce such DETAILLED resp. "FINE TUNED" statistic reports

< stats

 

as required to communicate this. This section therefor can only refer to changes in "ALERT LEVELS" as published by GVP. Click on the buttons (right) to find more detailled internal reports: volcano watch (global statistics) and regional volcano maps (all volcanoes worldwide and current activities)

maps >

 
volcano-discovery/gadget

note: this report does NOT necessarely represent all currently global active volcanoes!

      2012 report by: GVP  
REGION:
NAME/USGS datalink:
GEOGRAPHIC POSITION: LAT. / LONG.
VOLCANO NUMBER
VOLCANO TYPE
WEBCAM DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL MAP: LOCAL SURVEY  

CENTRAL CHILE

COPAHUE

37°51'0"S/ 71°10'0"W

1507-09=

Stratovolcano

Hi*

COPAHUE

DECEMBER- 23- 2012

 

SOUTHAM-S

ONEMI

 

Wikipedia:

                 

 

           

2012

report by:

GVP  

- no report yet by USGS: -  there is no previous eruption recorded in history

( late report by GVP on January 03- 2013: )OVDAS-SERNAGEOMIN reported that during 25-29 December white plumes observed with a web camera installed near Copahue rose 450-850 m and drifted NE and E. Plumes detected in satellite imagery drifting 16 km NE on 26 December. Incandescence from the crater was observed at night during 26-28 December; explosions were detected during 27-28 December. Seismicity had decreased during the reporting period. The Alert Level was lowered to Yellow on 29 December.

 

                             

 

                     

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground. com Tropical Cyclone Four DEC- 22- 2012 INDIAN OCEAN 40 MPH ()

59.7° E 

8.7° N

700 KM EAST THE COAST OF THE COAST OD SOMALIA W L    

VARIOUS REPORTS:_

                   
                           
                           
     

COPAHUE/ ERUPTION/ CENTRAL CHILE

             

20121223

report by:

plenglish.com  

Red Alert for Volcano Eruption in Chile

Santiago de Chile, Dec 23 (Prensa Latina) The Government of Chile on Sunday declared red alert phase for the commune of Alto Biobío because of Copahue volcano eruption, but so far they have not undertake the evacuation of the settlers. The alert phase was decreed by the National Emergency Office (Onemi), corresponding to a report of the National Service of Geology and Mining, which indicates that the volcano, about 700 kilometers south of the capital, has glow in his surface activity emitting a plume over a kilometer high.In case of increased volcanic activity, the area likely to be affected by lava flows and lahars (15 kilometers) does not include populated areas. In larger eruptions, but with lower probability of occurrence, potential flows could extend its effects further (25 kilometers), says the part of the Onemi....read more...

 

WESTERN  ANTARTIC ICE MELT

             

20121223

report by:

bbc.co.uk  

West Antarctic Ice Sheet warming twice earlier estimate

A new analysis of temperature records indicates that the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet is warming nearly twice as fast as previously thought. US researchers say they found the first evidence of warming during the southern hemisphere's summer months. They are worried that the increased melting of ice as a result of warmer temperatures could contribute to sea-level rise. The study has been published in the journalNature Geoscience.The scientists compiled data from records kept at Byrd station, established by the US in the mid-1950s and located towards the centre of the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS).The results indicate an increase of 2.4C in average annual temperature between 1958 and 2010. "What we're seeing is one of the strongest warming signals on Earth," says Andrew Monaghan, a co-author and scientist at the US National Centre for Atmospheric Research. "This is the first time we've been able to determine that there's warming going on during the summer season." he added...read more...

*internal remarks> ( the g;lobal warming theory does not respect the possibility, that the coldest   point * related to the climate zones and geomagnetic pole might  just be shifting. The reports NEVER DID and still do not refer to the entire Arctic regions and their neighborhoods. The few reports about these forgotten regions indicate strongly, that the temperatures , while rising just on the one side * here> WESTERN ANTARTICA/in regions SOUTH OF CHILE are falling elsewhere/ and as it seems/ just on the diametral opposite regions to the rotation poles * here> EASTERN ANTARCTICA/ what would be barely populated maritime regions in the SOUTHWESTERN PACIFIC. More measurements woul be required to confirm that.

 

                                 
CURRENT CONTINUING LOW SOLAR ACTIVITY INDICATES PROBABILITY OF UPCOMING PROTON ERUPTION / STORM

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

90

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

289-415

FLARES >

C

03

 

unnumbered NORTH FADED DEC- 17 DEC 21- 22  

 

SOLAR FLUX

114.2

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

 

 

M

 

 

unnumbered SOUTH DECAYING DEC- 20  

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

02

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

 

 

X

 

 

CH 548 APR. 30° S GROWING DEC- 19 DEC- 23  

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) NOV 13- 17  

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) NOV 17-26  

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

NONE  

 

           

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

rotating out          

 

 

 

 

FILAMENT ERUPTIONS >

 

 

faded

15631

75° - 89° W

18° N

 

 

                     

faded

15632

71° - 85° W

18° N

 

 

       

SOLAR/ INTERPLANETARY MEASUREMENTS & DATA PLOTS:

 
 

15633

23 ° -37° W

07° S

 

 

 

 

  ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>>

LOW

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
 

15634

23° - 37° W

17° S

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20121206

^increasing

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

 

15635

23 ° - 09° E

10° N

 

DEC- 25

     

 

GENERAL SOLAR ACTIVITY

20121031

20121112

 

           

 

 

 

 

CH 548 and AR on 20121223/ STARMAP by solen.info GOES ELECTRON FLUX:

 

           

 

 

 

 

 

       

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

       

 

           
                     

 

red letters = currently most active region abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class. alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**

 

GOES- PROTON FLUX:

(DEC- 17/ 15:00 UTC) PROTON FLUX BACK TO NOMINAL LEVEL

 

 

*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson)

 

related ELECTRONS:

ELECTRON FLUX RETURNING TO NORMAL VALUES

 

                         
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2012 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 22/2220Z from Region 1633 (S05W27). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on days one, two, and three (24 Dec, 25 Dec, 26 Dec).

 

 

                 
CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)- SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA    

 

  LATEST CME IMPACT MAP (internal  

(date)

CMEs at:

NONE

ARRIVAL:

under analysis

POLARITY: UNKNOWN BETA ALPHA (PROTONS)  

 

X-RAY FLUX (Solar FLARES/ nuclear activity)  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note,, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20121130/ 1:30 UTC

int. CME Nr. >>

88/12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT: LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

15° - 135W

STRONGER (2 of 3)

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

 SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS

(SOUTH-) EAST PACIFIC

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

INDO/AUS >< PACIFIC

 

INCREASING

 

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

WESTERN EUROPE

SOUTH

N-AMERICA >< E-EURASIA

 

23- DECEMBER - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

ATLANTIC

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

AFRICA >< AMERICAS

 

M 5.5 - 7.5

2-3

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

ALL NORTH AND SOUTH AMERICAS

N- AMERICA>< S- AMERICA- (ALL)

 

24- DECEMBER - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS

SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5 - 7.0

2-3

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

global

global

 

25- DECEMBER - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

 

 

 

M 5.5 - 7.0

2-3( preliminary)

 

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME

 

*REGIONS> see definition below  

 

 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES* CURRENT DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: ELECTRONS < 1000 pfu    

 

*BY TECTONICS COOLING DOWN = RELATED TECTONIC PLATES ARE EXPECTED  TO BE HEATED BY CME IMPACT

 

geomagnetic field density still on elavated levels

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/GEO.magnetometer

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES> ELECTRONS AFTER PROTON EVENT MULTIPLE CME IMPACT

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS > SUDDEN EARTHQUAKES EQ- LATENCY-  (UNTIL DEC- 03?)

 

QUIET

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 350 km/s at 22/2159Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 169 pfu.

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT