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alien- homepage.de- Earth quake statistics- -SUN SPOT ACTIVITY- 11- years solar cycle- last update: MARCH- 01 -- 2012- -07:00 UTC copyright:5reserved

background image: Aurora Borealis /COMMONS / wikipedia
open source earthquake forecast project created and provided by: alien-homepage.de-

 

 

2012/ 13 - MAXIMUM OF 11- YEAR SOLAR CYCLE

SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG

ARCHIVE
FEBRUARY- 2012

click here for all other archives

NASA STEREO BEACON

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PAGES RELATED TO THIS SOLAR/TERRESTRIAL PROJECT>
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SOHO REALTIME current view on the Sun
SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG/ ARCHIVES:

(SUN SPOTS EARTHQUAKE AND VOLCANISM/ ARCHIVE- 2011:)click on the month symbols to get to the specific pages of 2011:

2012 >
                     
2011 >
2010 >
NOTE: I WILL APPLY A NEW ARCHIVE SYSTEM IN 2012. CLICK ON THE BUTTON (right) FOR THE NEW ARCHIVE DIRECTORY! >

 

click here to open panel with graphics for global incident map and Earthquake statistic February 2012
   

True and REAL TIME graphic solution, that makes obvious the coincidences of CME impacts and extraordinary natural phenomenons such as heavier Earthquakes, volcano eruptions, hurricanes. sudden ice meltdowns (floddings) and others

( click on the graphic top to enlarge it):

INTERNAL MAPS: click on the images or links below to get to my large regional maps, where you find all volcanoes around the world with descriptions , webcams and much more such as ancients sites! . Weekly regular activity updates, special earthquakes events with many functions

world volcano map 1.0

world volcano map version 2.0

Europe and Western Asia Africa and Arabic peninsula Central America and Mexico South America- Northern part South America- Southern part Central America and Mexico Northern America Kamchatka peninsula Japan region Indonesia and Philippines Australia and Southern Pacific

- incident graphic will be completed at the end of the month-

SPACECRAFTS:
SoHO
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
SDO /AIA
Solar Dynamics Observatory
STEREO
Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory
GOES
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites

ACE

 
Advanced Composition Explorer

^^ internal Earthquake statistics- with Sun activity curves : green = SUNSPOT NUMBER, Pink= SOLAR FLUX, blue= PLANETARY A INDEX

click here to see some of the paradox observations made during that solar cycle first possibly by observatory sopacecrafts: : CORONAL HOLES THOSE REAPPEAR DURING SEVERAL SOLAR ROTATION PERIODS ON THE SAME HELIOGRAPHIC POSITION

 

VIDEOS/ REPORTS OF THE WEEK- FEBRUARY_ 2012:

 

 

M 6.7 - NEGROS- CEBU REG, PHILIPPINES - 2012-02-06 03:49 UTC

< ( video by reuthers/yahoo.com) One major 6.7 Earthquake and several stronger afterquakes have this time strucked the Philippines in the aftermath of 3 larger CME impacts End of January 2012

(BBC.com) ...Rescue efforts are continuing after Monday's powerful earthquake in the central Philippines that left dozens of people dead or missing.

Army teams were carrying out search operations, said Ver Neil Balaba, operations officer at the regional Office of Civil Defence, and police had been deployed to prevent looting. ...read more at bbc.com

 
  weekly report February 01- 07- 2012
 
 
VIDEO/REPORT OF THE WEEK ( February- 24- 2012)
   

FEBRUARY- 24- 2012: MAJOR SOLAR ALERT!

Likely the largest filament eruption in the recent two years unleashed a major Earth directed CME on February 24- 2012 after 5:42 UTC.

A filament can be described as long stretched line formed concentration of sun gases across the Sun surface that mainly forms out along the edges of so called Coronal Holes (CH) . The eruption occured from a filament in the North Eastern quadrant of the Sun and created a new Coronal hole in its neighborhood to the spotless region AR 11421.

Currently The Earth is approaching its spring equanox (node) - in astronomical terms: is going to cross the equatorial plane of the Sun. This central position to the Sun must be considered being most geoeffective and will effect on CMEs generally with a higher chance to become a direct hit than during other seasons of the year. The CME unleashed will arrive between February 26 and 27 and will likely cause an entire serial of geological effects such as stronger volcano eruptions, storms and later major Earthquakes after arriving.

click here for my solar and terrestrial blog for last updates, CME tracking and Earthquake and volcano forecasts

 

/ eruptive proinence / eruptive proinence / eruptive proinence

HEADLINES

TODAYS BLOG MIGHT BE RATHER EMPTY- AS INFORMATION WILL COME IN LATER! SCROLL TO FIND LATEST UP TO DATE REPORTS

    Again, I have changed a little bit my blog template (layout) to make the report shorter and more compact click here to find previous reports of FEBRUARY 2012  

FEBRUARY 2012

 

get more specific Sun data at: solen.info/

SunSpotWatch.com

USGS/ NEIC

EUROPE: EMSC

GLOBAL VOLCANISM PROGRAM (GVP)

*

o

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST: INTERNAL (alien-homepage)

please: always calculate with an error of at least one day in the Earthquake predictions

o

 

 

                       

2012

MONTH:

FEBRUARY

 

DAY:

29

             
                           

SECTION 1 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

                       
                               

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!
  EXTERNAL SOURCES  

EARTHQUAKES

                     

by:

EMSC NEIC  

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL > M6.0 > M 5.8 - NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN - 2012-02-29 14:32 UTC    
                       

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

will be updated each Thursday!              
MEDIA REPORTS                       20120229 report by: internal report  

Iceland: Tremor Earthquakes increased near Reikjavik

The reported seismic tremors on Iceland increased in strength on Feb- 29. Two larger quakes were measured near Reikjiavik on Feb 29 and March- 01 2012 >

M 2.9 - DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE - 2012-02-29 09:04 UTC

M 3.9 - ICELAND - 2012-03-01 01:03 UTC

 

UNDER SPECIAL SURVEY:

                         
CYCLADE ISLAND / GREECE                       EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ SANTORIN/ GREECE FEB- 29- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O:

03

HIGHEST MEASURED MAGNITUDE: M 2.9 - DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE - 2012-02-29 09:04 UTC  

STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

               
TROPICAL STORMS UPDATE NAME TRACKING NAME CURRENT WIND SPEED: COORDINATES GEOGRAPHIC POSITION: DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT  

REPORT BY:

www. wunderground.com

FEB- 29- 2012

 

Tropical Cyclone Irina

IRINA

Tropical Cyclone Irina

40 MPH

-16.2S

43.4E

West of MASAGASKAR/INDIAN OCEAN/ EAST AFRICA

WEST

 
MEDIA REPORTS                       20120301 report by: .bbc.co.uk  

US Midwest storm leaves 12 dead and dozens injured

At least 12 people have been killed by a storm system in the US Midwest that brought devastation to parts of Illinois, Missouri and Kansas. Three people died in Tennessee hours after reports of deaths in Illinois and in Missouri. More than 100 were hurt and buildings badly damaged across multiple states, with at least 16 tornado sightings. (including video source) ...read more...

 

TECHNICAL DISASTERS

                     
JAPAN QUAKE- 20110311                       201202xx report by: mdn.mainichi.jp  

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- The science ministry's earthquake research panel omitted a warning that massive tsunami could hit northeastern Japan "at any moment" from a report prior to the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami, having earlier planned to include it, a ministry document showed Tuesday. The Earthquake Research Committee had presented the report eight days before the March 11 disaster to an unofficial meeting among the ministry, Tokyo Electric Power Co. and two other utilities but ended up not publicizing it, according to the document, obtained by Kyodo News via a freedom-of-information request, and people involved....read more...

Devil's chain reaction' feared after Japan quake

Japan's prime minister ordered workers to remain at the tsunami-crippled Fukushima nuclear plant last March as fears mounted of a "devil's chain reaction" that would force tens of millions of people to flee Tokyo, a new investigative report shows. Then-premier Naoto Kan and his staff began referring to a worst case scenario that could threaten Japan's existence as a nation around three days after the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, according to the report by a panel set up by a private think-tank....read more at: .stuff.co.nz

( remark: 5 first quakes above M 6.0 already occured on March- 09- 2011: M 7.2 - NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN - 2011-03-09 02:45 UTC

see also videos by TEPCO on yout tube on recovery works

 

COSMIC SPACE

                20120229 report by: .bbc.co.uk  

Venus' day gets even longer as its spin slows

Venus is spinning more slowly and astronomers don't know why. In the 1990s, they worked out one Venusian day - the time for the planet to spin round once - lasted 243.018 Earth days. But now, the European Space Agency's Venus Express orbiter shows Venus' spin is getting even slower and a day on Venus is now six and a half minutes longer. Scientists aren't sure why. One cause could be Venus' thick atmosphere and high winds pushing against the planet's spin. ...read more

or: visit my page about Venus"

 
                           

SEKTION 2 :

CME ALERTS

 

 

SECTION 3 >>

 

EXPERIMENTAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST

 
Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:

LATEST CME IMPACT ( Feb 26- 28)

On Feb 23 and 24 numerous CMEs were observed on the Earth facing Sun side. At least two could be considered to have Earth directed parts. The largest (filament) eruption on Feb 24 created even a new Coronal Hole. The arrival of these CMEs on Feb 26- 28 was influenced by three recurrent Coronal Holes. Coronal Holes are for scientists still a mystery. Out of the fact that CHs influence theavarage speed of the Solar wind- mainly in form of fluctuations should be considered that CHs are an indicator for fluctuations in the ( magnetic ) gravity inside the Sun. Thus, the impact muster of these latest CME arrivals was rather strange. The sun wind stream at all formed three kind of wave peaks within three following days:The highest amplitudes were Feb 26: 155 nT/ Feb 27: 137 nT/ Feb 28: 127 nT

  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  
  QUIET

29- FEBRUARY- 2012

 
  UNSETTLED 5.5- 7.0 2-3  
MINOR STORM

01- MARCH- 2012

MAJOR STORM 5.5- 7.0 2-3
   

02- MARCH - 2012

 
 

NOTICES:

5.5- 7.0 2-3  
 

MOST PROBABLE EVENT REGIONS:  
  DATE / TIME        

VOLCANO/ STORM a.o.

EARTHQUAKES

 

ACTIVE REGION:

       

OVERALL REGION:.

TECTONIC BOUNDARIES BETWEEN

 
    REGIONS B- E A /B and E/ F  
SUN COORDINATES    
     
TYPE OF ACTIVITY

 

TODAY`S CME ALERTS:
SATELLITE > STEREO "Behind "        

IMPACT BEGIN (UTC)

INT. CME NR.

 
CLASSIFICATION/ ERUPTION TYPE                

 

          last prior CME ARRIVAL: EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS::  
CME AT: STRENGTH*       20120226-27 13-14/12 MINOR-MEDIUM STORMS -VOLCANO ACTIVITIES- ELECTROMAGNETIC INDUCTION -RISING TEMERATURES -RAPIDE SNOW MELTDOWNS WITH AVALANCHES AND FLOODINGS  
          155 nT MAX (nanoTesla)  
SIDERIC DIRECTION*:         APPROACHING CMEs EXPECTED ON: INT. NUMBER:  
INTERNAL CME TRACKING NUMBER         0  

2012

   

/12

 
SATELLITE > SDO /AIA( comp. SDO /AIA( comp. SoHO/ LASCO C2 STAR MAP b: solen.info   NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION / last 24 hours:  
                     

3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT

 
EXPLANATIONS>

Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.

Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./ Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME or CME cluster/  
HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST> INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions! STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER CME IMPACT (LATENCY!) on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES between the RED and the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Minor ones between the yellow and green regions  

REGIONS

REGION "A"

REGION "B"

REGION "C"

REGION "D"

REGION "E"

REGION "F"

   
IMPACT REPORT to CME Nr 14/12> EASTERN EURASIA, S-W ASIA. INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES CENTRAL PACIFIC: KAMCHATKA, JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NZ, PNG,. VANUATU,. FIJI WESTERN USA AND EASTERN PACIFIC/ CANADA/ ALASKA/ USA WEST COASTS EASTERN AND CENTRAL AMERICA/ CARIBIC/COLUMBIA,/PERU ENTIRE ATLANTIC/ ICELAND, SOUTHERN AMERICA - EASTERN COAST CENTRAL EUROPE/ AFRICA/ ASIA MINOR

related CME ARRIVAL:

 
TIME ZONES> UTC + 9 >> UTC + 4 UTC+/- 12 >>> UTC+ 9 UTC- 9 >>>UTC+/- 12 UTC- 4 >>> UTC -9 UTC >> UTC - 4 UTC+ 4 >>> UTC

14/12

 
LONGITUDES>

120° E- 60° E

180° - 120° E

120° W- 180° W

60° W- 120° W

00° W- 60° W

60° E- 00°

20120227

 
               

SECTION 5

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

  solar data by: solen.info      
SOLAR PARAMETERS   SPECIAL SOLAR ACTIVITIES TOTAL:   NOAA/ CMEsTODAY`S ALERTS:    
SUNSPOT NUMBER

22

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

376-488

FLARE CLASS. C     :    
SOLAR FLUX

102

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 1.6

  M    

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

     
PLANETARY "A" INDEX

04

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

55- 130 nT

  X     NUMBER LATITUDE: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING FADING (OUT)  
                SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION FEB- 26 RECCURR.  
ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS:     CORONAL MASS EJECTION: PROPERTIES   CH 505 45- 30° S GROWING: FEB- 16 FEB- 30- MAR- 01-    
REMARKS: ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY

appr. EARTH FACING ON CME ERUPTION TIME UTC SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH-DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:   CH 503 15- 30° N CLOSING. FEB- 23 FEB 26- 27 MAR- 01  
  LONGITUDE LATITUDE   RECURR.= RECURRENT T.EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL  
NEWLY EMERGED>

11423

08° - 22° W

16° N

FEB- 29

               
 

11425

21°- 35° W

18° N

        FILAMENT ACTIVITIES   CME TRACKING NR.    
 

11426

24°- 38° W

10° N

        REGION LONG LAT. DATE CME AT (UTC):  
                             
                                 
REMARKS >    

 

 

                       

2012

MONTH:

FEBRUARY

 

DAY:

28

             
                           

SECTION 1 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

                       
                               

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!
  EXTERNAL SOURCES  

EARTHQUAKES

                     

by:

EMSC NEIC  

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL M 5.5 - BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION - 2012-02-28 15:07 UTC    
MEDIA REPORTS                       201202xx report by:    
     
                       

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

will be updated each Thursday!              
MEDIA REPORTS                       20120228 report by: volcanodiscovery.  

Santa Maria / Santiaguito volcano (Guatemala), activity update: moderate explosions at intervals of 15 minutes

Santiaguito volcano in Guatemala has been displaying a slightly elevated state of activity in recent days. INSIVUMEH reports moderate explosions about every 15 minutes that eject plumes of gray ash tot 600 and 800 meters above the crater, and producing an ash plume drifting to the west and SW until dissipating at about 15 km distance. ...read more...

 

UNDER SPECIAL SURVEY:

                         
CYCLADE ISLAND / GREECE                       EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ SANTORIN/ GREECE FEB- 28- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O:

02

HIGHEST MEASURED MAGNITUDE: M 3.2 - DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE - 2012-02-28 05:10 UTC  

STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

               

TROPICAL STORMS

                     
wunderground.com
 


no reported tropical storms -find more informations-

 

CLIMATE CHANGE AND SHIFT>

               
MEDIA REPORTS                       20120228 report by: heraldsun.com.au/  

Perth's hottest summer in 34 years

PERTH has recorded its second hottest summer on record, its hottest summer in 34 years and its wettest summer in 12 years. The last time temperatures were so consistently high in Perth was in 1978 and the last time the city had so much rain was in 2000, the Weather Channel says. Chief meteorologist Dick Whitaker said today that the heat was mostly due to record warm surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean. "Our overall average was 25.5C, still 0.6 degrees below the 1978 record mark of 26.C," he said. Mr Whitaker said Perth's summer rainfall of 118.2mm was nearly four times above the average of 31.3mm, and more than double the 48mm received last summer....read more...

 

TECHNICAL DISASTERS

                     
WEST AFRICA GAS RIG                       20120222 report by: BBC.com  

- Havarized CHEVRON offshore natural gas rig in Nigeria 2 month after the incident still on fire-

Chevron Nigeria gas well fire 'may burn for months'

( BBC- Feb- 22- 2012) A gas-fuelled fire, with flames as high as 5m, may burn for months in waters off the Niger Delta in south-east Nigeria, Chevron has told the BBC.. Two workers died after January's explosion at the KS Endeavour exploration rig, owned by the US firm. Friends of the Earth says this is the world's worst such accident in recent years. Chevron spokesman Lloyd Avram says, despite the fire, the situation is now under control and no oil is leaking. Nigeria is the largest oil producer in Africa....read more...

 
 

ABUJA Jan 16 (Reuters) - Two workers were missing after fire broke out on a drilling rig in Chevron's Funiwa oil facility in southeast Nigeria on Monday, Chevron said."Search and rescue has successfully found 152 of 154 personnel. We expect all of those rescued to be onshore and checked medically. The fire is still burning. Early well control activation is ongoing," Chevron spokesman Scott Walker said. Local people reported a loud explosion on the rig early on Monday. "I heard a really loud bang and there was a fire," local village chief Young Fabby, 55, said by telephone....read more...

 

Nigeria News: Chevron fire in Niger Delta enters week four

(20120206) It used to be a Chevron natural gas rig in Nigeria. Now it is an inferno, entering its fourth week ablaze off Nigeria’s Atlantic coast, polluting nearby waters and making local people sick.The fire began on Jan. 16, killing two workers and forcing Chevron Nigeria Limited to evacuate 152 others. In a statement on its website, the company says it does not know exactly what caused the fire, or how long it will take to extinguish it....read more...

 
                        20120222 report by: BBC.com  
 

Italian cruise ship adrift off Seychelles taken in tow

An Italian cruise ship left adrift in the Indian Ocean with more than 1,000 people on board following a power failure, has been taken in tow. A French fishing vessel is taking the Costa Allegra to a nearby island where passengers will be disembarked before being transferred to the Seychelles. A fire in the ship's generator room on Monday caused it to lose all power. The ship is from the same fleet as the Costa Concordia, which capsized off the Italian coast in January, killing 32....rrad more...

 
                           

SEKTION 2 :

CME ALERTS

 

 

SECTION 3 >>

 

EXPERIMENTAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST

 
Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:

 

 

  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  

 

  QUIET

28- FEBRUARY- 2012

 

Due to the low solar wind speed in the past days, the GOES "impact signature" of today still reflects the related eruption muster of several CMEs on Feb 23 and 24 .Geomagnatic storming followed the first CME arrival on Feb 26. Today- Feb 28- another sharp rise was observed on Feb- 28 after 3:00 UTC. The events are accomponied by fluctuations caused by solar winds streams from 3 decaying Coronal Holes.

  UNSETTLED 5.5- 6.5 latency  
MINOR STORM

29- FEBRUARY- 2012

MAJOR STORM 5.5- 7.0 2-3
   

01- MARCH - 2012

 
 

NOTICES:

5.5- 7.0 2-3  
   

the overall situation with the 4 CMEs observed on Feb23- 24 is still a bit unclear .With low solar wind speeds and CH disturbances parts of the CME could need up to 4 days to Earth. However. any final portion of these CMEs should arrive latest today

MOST PROBABLE EVENT REGIONS:  
DATE / TIME > 20120224/ 23:55 UTC        

VOLCANO/ STORM a.o.

EARTHQUAKES

 

ACTIVE REGION:

       

OVERALL REGION:.

TECTONIC BOUNDARIES BETWEEN

 
    REGIONS B- E A /B and E/ F  
SUN COORDINATES    
     
TYPE OF ACTIVITY

 

TODAY`S CME ALERTS:
SATELLITE > STEREO "Behind "         IMPACT BEGIN (UTC) INT. CME NR.  
CLASSIFICATION                

 

          last prior CME ARRIVAL: EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS::  
CME AT:       20120226-27 13-14/12 MINOR-MEDIUM STORMS -VOLCANO ACTIVITIES- ELECTROMAGNETIC INDUCTION -RISING TEMERATURES -RAPIDE SNOW MELTDOWNS WITH AVALANCHES AND FLOODINGS  
        155 nT MAX (nanoTesla)  
INTERNAL CME TRACKING NUMBER       APPROACHING CMEs EXPECTED ON: INT. NUMBER:  
        0  

2012

   

/12

 
                     

3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT

 
EXPLANATIONS>

Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.

Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./ Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME or CME cluster/  
HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST> INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions! STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER CME IMPACT (LATENCY!) on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES between the RED and the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Minor ones between the yellow and green regions  

REGIONS

REGION "A"

REGION "B"

REGION "C"

REGION "D"

REGION "E"

REGION "F"

   
IMPACT REPORT to CME Nr 14/12> EASTERN EURASIA, S-W ASIA. INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES CENTRAL PACIFIC: KAMCHATKA, JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NZ, PNG,. VANUATU,. FIJI WESTERN USA AND EASTERN PACIFIC/ CANADA/ ALASKA/ USA WEST COASTS EASTERN AND CENTRAL AMERICA/ CARIBIC/COLUMBIA,/PERU ENTIRE ATLANTIC/ ICELAND, SOUTHERN AMERICA - EASTERN COAST CENTRAL EUROPE/ AFRICA/ ASIA MINOR

related CME ARRIVAL:

 
TIME ZONES> UTC + 9 >> UTC + 4 UTC+/- 12 >>> UTC+ 9 UTC- 9 >>>UTC+/- 12 UTC- 4 >>> UTC -9 UTC >> UTC - 4 UTC+ 4 >>> UTC

14/12

 
LONGITUDES>

120° E- 60° E

180° - 120° E

120° W- 180° W

60° W- 120° W

00° W- 60° W

60° E- 00°

20120227

 
               

SECTION 5

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

  solar data by: solen.info      
SOLAR PARAMETERS   SPECIAL SOLAR ACTIVITIES TOTAL:   NOAA/ CMEsTODAY`S ALERTS:    
SUNSPOT NUMBER

35

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

357-477

FLARE CLASS. C     :    
SOLAR FLUX

103

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 1.6

  M    

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

     
PLANETARY "A" INDEX

11

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

45- 128 nT

  X     NUMBER LATITUDE: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING FADING (OUT)  
                SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION FEB- 26 RECCURR.  
ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS:     CORONAL MASS EJECTION: PROPERTIES   CH 505 45- 30° S GROWING: FEB- 16 FEB- 30- MAR- 01-    
REMARKS: ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY

appr. EARTH FACING ON CME ERUPTION TIME UTC SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH-DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:   CH 503 15- 30° N RECURR. FEB- 23 FEB 26- 27    
  LONGITUDE LATITUDE   RECURR.= RECURRENT T.EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL  
NEWLY EMERGED>

11423

04°E - 11° W

16° N

FEB- 29

               
 

11425

10°- 24° W

18° N

        FILAMENT ACTIVITIES   CME TRACKING NR.    
 

11426

15°- 29° W

10° N

        REGION LONG LAT. DATE CME AT (UTC):  
 

11426

15°- 29° W

10° N

                     
                                 
REMARKS >    

 

 

                       

2012

MONTH:

FEBRUARY

 

DAY:

27

             
                           

SECTION 1 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

                       
                               

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!
  EXTERNAL SOURCES  

EARTHQUAKES

                     

by:

EMSC NEIC  

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL > M6.0 > M 5.2 - CENTRAL IRAN - 2012-02-27 18:48 UTC    
EARTHQUAKES TODAY NAME of REGION LOCATION (long/lat) DATE AND UTC- TIME: MAGNITUDE DEPTH CATHEGORY map FIND WITH GOOGLE EARTH:  
EUROPE: > M 5:0 CENTRAL IRAN 31.45 N ; 56.84 E 2012-02-27 18:48 UTC M 5.2 10 km no report yet      
MEDIA REPORTS                       201202xx report by: .iranwpd.com  

Moderate quake jolts east Iran, 6 hurt

Feb 28 - Iran's state TV says a moderate earthquake has injured six people and caused damages in a small town in the country's east. Tuesday's report says the magnitude 5.4 quake hit the sparsely populated area at 10 p.m. on Monday. It damaged buildings, roads, water canals as well as the nearby dam in the town of Ravar, some 750 kilometers southeast of the capital Tehran. The TV says the quake also damaged homes in some surrounding rural areas./-/...read more...

 
                       

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

will be updated each Thursday!              

UNDER SPECIAL SURVEY:

                         
CYCLADE ISLAND / GREECE                       EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ SANTORIN/ GREECE FEB- 27- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O:

 

HIGHEST MEASURED MAGNITUDE:    

STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

               

TROPICAL STORMS

                     
wunderground.com
 


no reported tropical storms -find more informations-

 
MEDIA REPORTS                       20120227 report by: .nationmultimedia.  

INDONESIA/ Northern provinces warned of tropical storm

The Meteorological Department Monday warned people living in lower northern provinces and northeastern provinces to brace themselves for a possible tropical storm. The department said a moderate high pressure area has covered the upper Thailand and the South China Sea, and its influence could cause a tropical storm Monday or Tuesday. The high pressure area would also cause the temperature in the North and Northeast to drop by two degrees....read more...


 

CLIMATE CHANGE AND SHIFT>

               
MEDIA REPORTS                       20120227 report by: .bbc.co.uk  

Melting Arctic link to cold, snowy UK winters

The progressive shrinking of Arctic sea ice is bringing colder, snowier winters to the UK and other areas of Europe, North America and China, a study shows. As global temperatures have risen, the area of Arctic Ocean covered by ice in summer and autumn has been falling. Writing in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), a US/China-based team show this affects the jet stream and brings cold, snowy weather....read more...

 
MEDIA REPORTS                       20120227 report by: english.ntdtv.com  

Extreme Weather in Western China Continues

Natural calamities are taking a toll on provinces in western China. In the north, people suffer from severe snowstorms, while southwestern areas are coping with prolonged drought. Cold weather continues to plague the northwestern Xinjiang region of China. Over $900,000 of damage was reported, according to state media. Barns, houses, and livestock have all fell victim to the freezing temperatures. Meanwhile in the southwestern Yunnan province, some villagers haven’t seen rain since last November. Over six million people are affected by the drought....read more...

 
                           

SEKTION 2 :

CME ALERTS

 

 

SECTION 3 >>

 

EXPERIMENTAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST

 
Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:

 

 

  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  

 

  QUIET

27- FEBRUARY- 2012

 

 

  UNSETTLED 5.5- 6.5 latency  
MINOR STORM

28- FEBRUARY- 2012

MAJOR STORM 5.5- 6.5 latency
   

29- FEBRUARY- 2012

 
 

NOTICES:

5.5- 7.0 2-3  
   

The CME that impacted yesterday after 17:30 UTC was most likely a minor one on Feb 23 ( Nr 12/12)

The larger CME form the filament eruption on Feb 24 is expected to arrive todayx

MOST PROBABLE EVENT REGIONS:  
DATE / TIME > 20120224/ 23:55 UTC        

VOLCANO/ STORM a.o.

EARTHQUAKES

 

ACTIVE REGION:

       

OVERALL REGION:.

TECTONIC BOUNDARIES BETWEEN

 
    REGIONS B- E A /B and E/ F  
SUN COORDINATES    
     
TYPE OF ACTIVITY

 

TODAY`S CME ALERTS:
SATELLITE > STEREO "Behind "         IMPACT BEGIN (UTC) INT. CME NR.  
CLASSIFICATION                

 

          last prior CME ARRIVAL: EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS::  
CME AT:       20120226/27 13-14 /12 MINOR-MEDIUM STORMS -VOLCANO ACTIVITIES- ELECTROMAGNETIC INDUCTION -RISING TEMERATURES -RAPIDE SNOW MELTDOWNS WITH AVALANCHES AND FLOODINGS  
        155 nT MAX (nanoTesla)  
INTERNAL CME TRACKING NUMBER       APPROACHING CMEs EXPECTED ON: INT. NUMBER:  
           

2012

   

/12

 
                     

3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT

 
EXPLANATIONS>

Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.

Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./ Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME or CME cluster/  
HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST> INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions! STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER CME IMPACT (LATENCY!) on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES between the RED and the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Minor ones between the yellow and green regions  

REGIONS

REGION "A"

REGION "B"

REGION "C"

REGION "D"

REGION "E"

REGION "F"

   
IMPACT REPORT to CME Nr 14/12> EASTERN EURASIA, S-W ASIA. INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES CENTRAL PACIFIC: KAMCHATKA, JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NZ, PNG,. VANUATU,. FIJI WESTERN USA AND EASTERN PACIFIC/ CANADA/ ALASKA/ USA WEST COASTS EASTERN AND CENTRAL AMERICA/ CARIBIC/COLUMBIA,/PERU ENTIRE ATLANTIC/ ICELAND, SOUTHERN AMERICA - EASTERN COAST CENTRAL EUROPE/ AFRICA/ ASIA MINOR

related CME ARRIVAL:

 
TIME ZONES> UTC + 9 >> UTC + 4 UTC+/- 12 >>> UTC+ 9 UTC- 9 >>>UTC+/- 12 UTC- 4 >>> UTC -9 UTC >> UTC - 4 UTC+ 4 >>> UTC

14/12

 
LONGITUDES>

120° E- 60° E

180° - 120° E

120° W- 180° W

60° W- 120° W

00° W- 60° W

60° E- 00°

20120227

 

SECTION 4: CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS

CME TRACKING

        ARRIVAL:            

TRACKING NR.:

13/12

SOLAR EVENT DATA

CME EVENT

APPROACHING >

ACE

GOES

 

20120226

< IMPACT > CME ARRIVAL DATA (EARTH)  

multiple minor and major CME events on Feb 23- 24

AR LONG LAT. DATE

EVENT CLASS OR DESCRIPTION

SAT./ ARRIVAL TIMES

FIRST SOLAR WIND SHOCK

 

IMPACT > 100 nT

MAIN IMPACT PEAK VALUE RELATIVE MASS* PRIMARY IMPACT REGIONS (red backcolored)  
Nr.: / 13/12 (FEB- 23- 20112/after 9:00 UTC)

11419

71°- 85° W

28° N

FEB- 23/ after 9:00 UTC short eruptive prominence

20120226/ 21:00 UTC

20120226/ 17:30 UTC   FEB 26/ 13 UTC- FEB 27/ 02 UTC 21- 23 UTC 155 nT 360 ALASKA- INDONESIA  
Nr.: / 14/12

NORTH EAST QUADRANT

03°E- 11° W

16° N

FEB- 24/3:24 UTC

massive filament eruption

20120227/ 05 UTC 10120227/ 03UTC?   FEB-27/11:30 UTC- 22 UTC 13- 18 UTC 137 nT 177 WESTERN EUROPE- CENTRAL AMERICA  
 

Both CME arrivals will interfer with one another and be treated as one

PEAKS: 7:00 UTC( ongoing)       SECONDARY IMPACT REGIONS> ongoing  
               

SECTION 5

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

  solar data by: solen.info      
SOLAR PARAMETERS   SPECIAL SOLAR ACTIVITIES TOTAL:   NOAA/ CMEsTODAY`S ALERTS:    
SUNSPOT NUMBER

45

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

428-495

FLARE CLASS. C     :    
SOLAR FLUX

105

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 2.0

  M     CORONAL HOLES  
PLANETARY "A" INDEX

19

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

30- 140 nT

  X     NUMBER LATITUDE: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING FADING (OUT)  
                SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION FEB- 26 RECCURR.  
                CH 505 45- 30° S RECURR: FEB- 16 FEB- 30- MAR- 01-    
ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS:     CORONAL MASS EJECTION: PROPERTIES   CH 503 15- 30° N RECURR. FEB- 23 FEB 26- 27    
REMARKS: ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY

appr. EARTH FACING ON CME ERUPTION TIME UTC SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH-DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:   CH 504 45- 50° N CLOSED FEB- 24 FEB- 24 FEB- 27  
  LONGITUDE LATITUDE   RECURR.= RECURRENT T.EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL  
NEWLY EMERGED>

11423

17°- 03° E

16° N

FEB- 29

               
 

11424

26°- 12° E

07° N

FEB-29

      FILAMENT ACTIVITIES   CME TRACKING NR.    
 

11425

02°- 16° W

18° N

FEB- 27/ 28

      REGION LONG LAT. DATE CME AT (UTC):  
 

11426

01°- 15° W

10° N

FEB 27/28

                   
                  DURATION EARTHBOUND? APPR. ARRIVAL:  
                             
                                 
REMARKS >    
                         

2012

MONTH:

FEBRUARY

 

DAY:

26

             
                           

SECTION 1 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

                       
                               

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!
  EXTERNAL SOURCES  

EARTHQUAKES

                     

by:

EMSC NEIC  

EARTHQUAKES

                     

by:

EMSC NEIC  

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL > M6.0 > M 6.8 - SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA - 2012-02-26 06:17 UTC            
EARTHQUAKES TODAY NAME of REGION LOCATION (long/lat) DATE AND UTC- TIME: MAGNITUDE DEPTH CATHEGORY map FIND WITH GOOGLE EARTH:  
GLOBAL > 6.0 M 6.8 - SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, 51.78 N ; 96.05 E 2012-02-26 06:17 UTC M 6.8 10 km 2 EUROPE - SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA - 2012-02-26 06_17 UTC  
  SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS - 24.52 S ; 177.27 W 2012-02-26 05:21 UTC M 6.0 - 46 km no report yet AUS    
MEDIA REPORTS                       20120226 report by: .straitstimes.com  

Magnitude 6.8 quake hits Siberia near Mongolia border (Several aftershocks followed the major Earthquake in Southwestern Sibiria)

MOSCOW (REUTERS) - A strong 6.8 magnitude earthquake hit Russia's south-eastern and sparsely populated region of Tuva on Sunday, shaking residents near the Mongolian border from their sleep, but there were no immediate reports of injuries or damage. The United States (US) Geological Survey said the epicentre of the quake was some 90km east of the Russian city of Kyzyl in the Tuva region of Siberia. It struck around 0617 GMT (2.17pm Singapore time) at an estimated depth of 11.7km...read more...-

 
                       

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

will be updated each Thursday!              
EVENTS NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL LOCAL SURVEY GOOGLE EARTH WEBCAM

MAP

SOURCES:  
  NEVADO DEL RUIZ 4°53'43"N/ 75°19'21"W FEB- 26- 2012 not issued yet INGEOMINAS NEVADO DEL RUIZ none S- AMER    
MEDIA REPORTS                       201202xx report by: volcanodiscovery.  

Nevado del Ruiz volcano (Colombia), activity update: increase in shallow earthquakes under Arenas crater

From 12:30 hours local time on February 23, a new increase in seismic activity of the Nevado del Ruiz volcano began, characterized by the occurrence of shallow earthquakes associated with fluid movements and fracturing of rock. INGEOMINAS also measured increased SO2 emissions and some changes in strain measurements. 
So far, the energy level of this increase is low compared with previous episodes of unrest, but small eruptions in the near future are possible. ...read more...

 

UNDER SPECIAL SURVEY:

                         
CYCLADE ISLAND / GREECE                       EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ SANTORIN/ GREECE FEB- 26- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O:

02

HIGHEST MEASURED MAGNITUDE: M 2.9 - DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE - 2012-02-26 02:12 UTC  

volcanodiscovery.El Hierro volcano (Canary Islands): submarine eruption seems to be ending Once more, it seems that the eruption is weakening or ending. Although a weak jacuzzi and stain on the ocean remains visible on the webcam, volcanic tremor is now zero since last night (or the instruments are dead). A small number (5-10 per day, typically) of small earthquakes clustered at around 10 km depth in the SW part of the island continue. [read more]

 

STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

               

TROPICAL STORMS

                     
wunderground.com
 


no reported tropical storms -find more informations-

 

CLIMATE CHANGE

                    20120220
rpeort by .bbc.co.uk  

Praying for rain in Paraguay

A severe drought is threatening the livelihood of thousands of small farmers across Paraguay. The BBC's Vladimir Hernandez visited one family to see how they are affected. Rosa is hoping for a miracle. She has barely seen any rain since October and has lost almost all of her crops./...read more...

 

DISASTERS

                     
                        20120220 report by: .bbc.co.uk/  

Two die in fire at Brazil's Antarctic research station

The Comandante Ferraz base near the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula was destroyed by an explosion on Saturday. Officials said the blast was caused by a fire which raged through the base, where marine research work is carried out.Officials said the fire started in a machine room housing energy generators before destroying the entire station, which had been built in 1984. Fifty-nine people were stationed at the base on King George Island when the fire broke out on Saturday morning. /...read more

 

 
                           

SEKTION 2 :

CME ALERTS

 

 

SECTION 3 >>

 

EXPERIMENTAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST

 
Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:

 

 

  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  

 

  QUIET

26- FEBRUARY- 2012

 

< the geomagnetic field appeared quite this morning, while the anergy level / field density continues to be 25 % above normal, by the latest CME impacts and continued incoming CH sun wind streams . There is still enough energy for some volcano activities. The CME from the major filament eruption on Feb 24 is expected to arrive later on FEB 26 or early Feb 27 and can be expected to cause major storm conditions upon its arrival

  UNSETTLED 5.5- 7.0 2-3  
MINOR STORM

27- FEBRUARY- 2012

MAJOR STORM 5.5- 6.5 latency
   

28- FEBRUARY- 2012

 
 

NOTICES:

5.5- 6.5 latency  
   

the energy impacts of the latest CMEs and CH Sun wind streams are still effective . A larger portion of a minor CME on Feb 23 , but more from a major filament eruption on Feb 24 are expected to impact on Feb 26- 28 . Volcano activities and tremors will remain high

MOST PROBABLE EVENT REGIONS:  
DATE / TIME > 20120224/ 23:55 UTC         IMMIDIATE EFFECTS (later) EARTHQUAKES  

ACTIVE REGION:

       

REGION B/C

RING OF FIRE (US WEST COAST >>INDONESIA  
    VOLCANO/ STORM a.o. EARTHQUAKES  
SUN COORDINATES    
     
TYPE OF ACTIVITY

 

TODAY`S CME ALERTS:
SATELLITE > STEREO "Behind "         IMPACT BEGIN (UTC) INT. CME NR.  
CLASSIFICATION           17:30 13? /12  

 

          last prior CME ARRIVAL: EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS::  
CME AT:       20120218 11/12 CME impact began at 17:30. Higher alert from February 27 on!  
        145 nT MAX (nanoTesla)  
INTERNAL CME TRACKING NUMBER       APPROACHING CMEs EXPECTED ON: INT. NUMBER:  
        1 (2?) MAJOR

2012

FEB- 27 13/ 14

/12

 
SATELLITE > SDO /AIA( comp. SDO /AIA( comp. SoHO/ LASCO C2 STAR MAP b: solen.info   NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION / last 24 hours:  

 

  geomagnetic storms (G)  

radio blackouts (R)

-- solar radiation storms(S) --  
                     

3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT

 
EXPLANATIONS>

Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.

Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./ Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME or CME cluster/  
HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST> INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions! STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER CME IMPACT (LATENCY!) on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES between the RED and the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Minor ones between the yellow and green regions  

REGIONS

REGION "A"

REGION "B"

REGION "C"

REGION "D"

REGION "E"

REGION "F"

   
IMPACT REPORT to CME Nr 13/12> EASTERN EURASIA, S-W ASIA. INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES CENTRAL PACIFIC: KAMCHATKA, JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NZ, PNG,. VANUATU,. FIJI WESTERN USA AND EASTERN PACIFIC/ CANADA/ ALASKA/ USA WEST COASTS EASTERN AND CENTRAL AMERICA/ CARIBIC/COLUMBIA,/PERU ENTIRE ATLANTIC/ ICELAND, SOUTHERN AMERICA - EASTERN COAST CENTRAL EUROPE/ AFRICA/ ASIA MINOR

related CME ARRIVAL:

 
TIME ZONES> UTC + 9 >> UTC + 4 UTC+/- 12 >>> UTC+ 9 UTC- 9 >>>UTC+/- 12 UTC- 4 >>> UTC -9 UTC >> UTC - 4 UTC+ 4 >>> UTC

13/12

 
LONGITUDES>

120° E- 60° E

180° - 120° E

120° W- 180° W

60° W- 120° W

00° W- 60° W

60° E- 00°

20120226

 

SECTION 4: CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS

CME TRACKING

        ARRIVAL:            

TRACKING NR.:

13/12

SOLAR EVENT DATA

CME EVENT

APPROACHING >

ACE

GOES

 

20120226

< IMPACT > CME ARRIVAL DATA (EARTH)  

multiple minor and major CME events on Feb 23- 24

AR LONG LAT. DATE

EVENT CLASS OR DESCRIPTION

SAT./ ARRIVAL TIMES

FIRST SOLAR WIND SHOCK

 

IMPACT > 100 nT

MAIN IMPACT PEAK VALUE RELATIVE MASS* PRIMARY IMPACT REGIONS (red backcolored)  
Nr.: / 13/12 (FEB- 23- 20112/after 9:00 UTC)

11419

71°- 85° W

28° N

FEB- 23/ after 9:00 UTC short eruptive prominence

20120226/ 21:00 UTC

20120226/ 17:30 UTC   FEB 26/ 13 UTC- FEB 27/ 02 UTC 21- 23 UTC 155 360 ALASKA, JAPAN  
Nr.: / 14/12

NORTH EAST QUADRANT

03°E- 11° W

16° N

FEB- 24/3:24 UTC

massive filament eruption

                 
 

Both CME arrivals will interfer with one another and be treated as one

PEAKS: 7:00 UTC( ongoing)       SECONDARY IMPACT REGIONS> ongoing  
  N-E Quadrant appr 25° W T,EQU 20120214 3:29 UTC            

SECTION 5

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

  solar data by: solen.info      
SOLAR PARAMETERS   SPECIAL SOLAR ACTIVITIES TOTAL:   NOAA/ CMEsTODAY`S ALERTS:    
SUNSPOT NUMBER

58

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s) 369-518 FLARE CLASS. C 02   :    
SOLAR FLUX

107

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 2.3

  M     CORONAL HOLES  
PLANETARY "A" INDEX

06

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

55- 155 nT

  X     NUMBER LATITUDE: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING FADING (OUT)  
                SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION FEB- 26 ---  
                CH 502 . 30- 60° S DECAY FEB- 16 FEB- 19-20    
ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS:     CORONAL MASS EJECTION: PROPERTIES   CH 503 15- 30° N GROWING FEB- 23 FEB 26- 27    
REMARKS: ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY

appr. EARTH FACING ON CME ERUPTION TIME UTC SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH-DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:   CH 504 45- 50° N GROWING FEB- 24 FEB- 24    
  LONGITUDE LATITUDE   RECURR.= RECURRENT T.EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL  
NEWLY EMERGED>

11423

31°- 17° E

16° N

FEB- 28                
 

11424

42°- 28° E

07° N

FEB-29       FILAMENT ACTIVITIES   CME TRACKING NR.    
 

11425

14°- 00° E

18° N

FEB- 28

      REGION LONG LAT. DATE CME AT (UTC):  
 

11426

14°- 00° E

10° N

 

                   
               
REMARKS >    
                         

2012

MONTH:

FEBRUARY

 

DAY:

25

             
                           

SECTION 1 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

                       
                               

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!
  EXTERNAL SOURCES  

EARTHQUAKES

                     

by:

EMSC NEIC  

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL > M6.0 > M 5.2 - SAMAR, PHILIPPINES - 2012-02-25 07:01 UTC    
      EUROPE > M 5.0 > M 4.6 - NEAR THE COAST OF YEMEN - 2012-02-25 02:01 UTC

 

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

will be updated each Thursday!              

UNDER SPECIAL SURVEY:

                         
CYCLADE ISLAND / GREECE                       EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ SANTORIN/ GREECE FEB- 25- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O:

06

HIGHEST MEASURED MAGNITUDE:    

STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

               

TROPICAL STORMS

                     
wunderground.com
 


no reported tropical storms

-find more informations-

 
                           

SEKTION 2 :

CME ALERTS

 

 

SECTION 3 >>

 

EXPERIMENTAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST

 
Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:

 

 

  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  

 

  QUIET

25- FEBRUARY- 2012

 

A minor CME was observed on Feb 24 after 23:55: It will be analysed later today.

  UNSETTLED 5.5- 6.5 latency  
MINOR STORM

26- FEBRUARY- 2012

MAJOR STORM 5.5- 7.0 2-3
   

27- FEBRUARY- 2012

 
   

NOTICES:

5.5- 6.5 latency  
   

the energy impacts of the latest CMEs and CH Sun wind streams are still effective . A larger portion of a minor CME on Feb 23 , but more from a major filament eruption on Feb 24 are expected to impact on Feb 26- 28 . Volcano activities and tremors will remain high

IMPACT REGIONS> see below!  
DATE / TIME > 20120224/ 23:55 UTC     CH 502, 503, 504/ SP CH   MOST PROBABLE EVENT REGIONS:  

ACTIVE REGION:

     

REGION D,E

CENTRAL EUROPE. W PACIFIC COAST (AMERICA)  
    VOLCANO/ STORM a.o. EARTHQUAKES  
SUN COORDINATES    
     
TYPE OF ACTIVITY

 

TODAY`S CME ALERTS:
SATELLITE > STEREO "Behind "     STAR MAP/ 20120224 by: solen.info   IMPACT BEGIN (UTC) INT. CME NR.  
CLASSIFICATION                

 

          last prior CME ARRIVAL: EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS::  
CME AT:       20120218 11/12 MINOR-MEDIUM STORMS -VOLCANO ACTIVITIES- ELECTROMAGNETIC INDUCTION -RISING TEMERATURES -RAPIDE SNOW MELTDOWNS WITH AVALANCHES AND FLOODINGS  
        145 nT MAX (nanoTesla)  
INTERNAL CME TRACKING NUMBER       APPROACHING CMEs EXPECTED ON: INT. NUMBER:  
        1(2?) MAJOR

2012

FEB- 27 14 (13)

/12

 
                     

3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT

 
EXPLANATIONS>

Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.

Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./ Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME or CME cluster/  
HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST> INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions! STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER CME IMPACT (LATENCY!) on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES between the RED and the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Minor ones between the yellow and green regions  

REGIONS

REGION "A"

REGION "B"

REGION "C"

REGION "D"

REGION "E"

REGION "F"

   
IMPACT REPORT to CME Nr 12/12> EASTERN EURASIA, S-W ASIA. INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES CENTRAL PACIFIC: KAMCHATKA, JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NZ, PNG,. VANUATU,. FIJI WESTERN USA AND EASTERN PACIFIC/ CANADA/ ALASKA/ USA WEST COASTS EASTERN AND CENTRAL AMERICA/ CARIBIC/COLUMBIA,/PERU ENTIRE ATLANTIC/ ICELAND, SOUTHERN AMERICA - EASTERN COAST CENTRAL EUROPE/ AFRICA/ ASIA MINOR

related CME ARRIVAL:

 
TIME ZONES> UTC + 9 >> UTC + 4 UTC+/- 12 >>> UTC+ 9 UTC- 9 >>>UTC+/- 12 UTC- 4 >>> UTC -9 UTC >> UTC - 4 UTC+ 4 >>> UTC

12/12

 
LONGITUDES>

120° E- 60° E

180° - 120° E

120° W- 180° W

60° W- 120° W

00° W- 60° W

60° E- 00°

20120222

 
               

SECTION 5

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

  solar data by: solen.info      
SOLAR PARAMETERS   SPECIAL SOLAR ACTIVITIES TOTAL:   NOAA/ CMEsTODAY`S ALERTS:    
SUNSPOT NUMBER

36

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

353-435

FLARE CLASS. C     :    
SOLAR FLUX

108

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 2.5

  M     CORONAL HOLES  
PLANETARY "A" INDEX

06

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

57- 122 nT

  X     NUMBER LATITUDE: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING FADING (OUT)  
                SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION FEB- 26 ---  
                CH 502 . 30- 60° S DECAY FEB- 16 FEB- 19-20    
ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS:     CORONAL MASS EJECTION: PROPERTIES   CH 503 15- 30° N GROWING FEB- 23 FEB 26- 27    
REMARKS: ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY

appr. EARTH FACING ON CME ERUPTION TIME UTC SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH-DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:   CH 504 45- 50° N GROWING FEB- 24 FEB- 24    
  LONGITUDE LATITUDE   RECURR.= RECURRENT T.EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL  
SPOTLESS REGION producing flares >

11421

33° - 47°W

18° N

                 
rotating out of view

11422

77°- 91° W

16° N

        FILAMENT ACTIVITIES   CME TRACKING NR.    
NEWLY EMERGED>

11423

44°- 30° E

16° N

FEB- 28       REGION LONG LAT. DATE CME AT (UTC):  
 

11424

56°- 42° E

07° N

FEB-29                    
                                 
REMARKS >    
                         

2012

MONTH:

FEBRUARY

 

DAY:

24

             
                           

SECTION 1 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

                       
                               

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!
  EXTERNAL SOURCES  

EARTHQUAKES

                     

by:

EMSC NEIC  

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

M 4.5 - EASTERN TURKEY - 2012-02-24 13:07 UTC

will be available tomorrow!

 
EARTHQUAKES TODAY NAME of REGION LOCATION (long/lat) DATE AND UTC- TIME: MAGNITUDE DEPTH CATHEGORY FIND WITH GOOGLE EARTH:  
                       

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

will be updated each Thursday!              

UNDER SPECIAL SURVEY:

                         
CYCLADE ISLAND / GREECE                       EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ SANTORIN/ GREECE FEB- 24- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O:

 

HIGHEST MEASURED MAGNITUDE:    

STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

               

TROPICAL STORMS

                     
wunderground.com
 


no reported tropical storms

-find more informations-

 

GEOLOGIC PHENOMENONS

                     
                        20120224 report by: /globaldisasterwatch.  

Earth's 'rhythmic throbbing' may lead to extinctions every 60 million years - A mysterious cycle of booms and busts in marine biodiversity over the past 500 million years could be tied to a periodic uplifting of the world's continents. Researchers discovered periodic increases in the amount of the isotope strontium-87 found in marine fossils. The timing of these increases corresponds to previously discovered low points in marine biodiversity that occur in the fossil record roughly every 60 million years. "Strontium-87 is produced by radioactive decay of another element, rubidium, which is common in igneous rocks in continental crust. So, when a lot of this type of rock erodes, a lot more Sr-87 is dumped into the ocean, and its fraction rises compared with another strontium isotope, Sr-86." An uplifting of the continents is the most likely explanation for this type of massive erosion event. ...read more...

 
MEDIA REPORTS                       20120225 report by .bbc.co.uk  

Mild drought caused Maya collapse in Mexico, Guatemala

Relatively mild drought conditions may have been enough to cause the collapse of the Classic Maya civilisation, which flourished until about AD950 in what is now southern Mexico and Guatemala. Scientists have long thought that severe drought caused its collapse. But Mexican and British researchers now think that a sustained drop in rainfall of only 25-40% was enough to exhaust seasonal water supplies in the region. The findings were published in the journal Science. ...read more...

 
                           

SEKTION 2 :

CME ALERTS

 

 

SECTION 3 >>

 

EXPERIMENTAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST

 
Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:

 

 

  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  

a massive filament eruption was observed today. (report by solen.info/):

The filament eruption in the northeast quadrant became a spectacular view over the last hours. A new coronal hole formed between AR11421 and the southern part of the filament. Only STEREO-B images currently covers the last hours and shows a significant CME emerging. This CME will highly likely become geoeffective and could reach Earth on Feb.26 or early on Feb.27.

  QUIET

24- FEBRUARY- 2012

 
  UNSETTLED 5.5- 6.5 2-3  
MINOR STORM

25- FEBRUARY- 2012

MAJOR STORM 5.5- 6.5 2-3
   

26- FEBRUARY- 2012

 
 

NOTICES:

5.5- 6.5 2-3  
   

A minor , partially Earth directed CME was observed during a filament eruption on Feb- 19

IMPACT REGIONS> see below!  
DATE / TIME > (1) 20120224/ 5:24 UTC (2) 20120224/ 5:09 UTC 20120224/ 6:18 UTC     MOST PROBABLE EVENT REGIONS:  

ACTIVE REGION:

   

REGION D,E

CENTRAL EUROPE. W PACIFIC COAST (AMERICA)  
    VOLCANO/ STORM a.o. EARTHQUAKES  
SUN COORDINATES    
     
TYPE OF ACTIVITY

 

TODAY`S CME ALERTS:
SATELLITE > STEREO "Ahead" STEREO "Behind " SoHO/ LASCO C3     IMPACT BEGIN (UTC) INT. CME NR.  
CLASSIFICATION 20120224/ 03:29 UTC (5) 20120224/ 6:58 UTC            

 

      last prior CME ARRIVAL: EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS::  
CME AT:       20120218 11/12 MINOR-MEDIUM STORMS -VOLCANO ACTIVITIES- ELECTROMAGNETIC INDUCTION -RISING TEMERATURES -RAPIDE SNOW MELTDOWNS WITH AVALANCHES AND FLOODINGS  
        145 nT MAX (nanoTesla)  
INTERNAL CME TRACKING NUMBER       APPROACHING CMEs EXPECTED ON: INT. NUMBER:  
        1 (2?) MAJOR

2012

FEB- 27 14 (13)

/12

 
SATELLITE > SDO /AIA( comp. SDO /AIA( comp. SoHO/ LASCO C2 STAR MAP b: solen.info   NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION / last 24 hours:  

 

  geomagnetic storms (G)  

radio blackouts (R)

-- solar radiation storms(S) --  
                     

3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT

 
EXPLANATIONS>

Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.

Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./ Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME or CME cluster/  
HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST> INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions! STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER CME IMPACT (LATENCY!) on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES between the RED and the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Minor ones between the yellow and green regions  

REGIONS

REGION "A"

REGION "B"

REGION "C"

REGION "D"

REGION "E"

REGION "F"

   
IMPACT REPORT to CME Nr 12/12> EASTERN EURASIA, S-W ASIA. INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES CENTRAL PACIFIC: KAMCHATKA, JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NZ, PNG,. VANUATU,. FIJI WESTERN USA AND EASTERN PACIFIC/ CANADA/ ALASKA/ USA WEST COASTS EASTERN AND CENTRAL AMERICA/ CARIBIC/COLUMBIA,/PERU ENTIRE ATLANTIC/ ICELAND, SOUTHERN AMERICA - EASTERN COAST CENTRAL EUROPE/ AFRICA/ ASIA MINOR

related CME ARRIVAL:

 
TIME ZONES> UTC + 9 >> UTC + 4 UTC+/- 12 >>> UTC+ 9 UTC- 9 >>>UTC+/- 12 UTC- 4 >>> UTC -9 UTC >> UTC - 4 UTC+ 4 >>> UTC

12/12

 
LONGITUDES>

120° E- 60° E

180° - 120° E

120° W- 180° W

60° W- 120° W

00° W- 60° W

60° E- 00°

20120222

 
               

SECTION 5

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

  solar data by: solen.info      
SOLAR PARAMETERS   SPECIAL SOLAR ACTIVITIES TOTAL:   NOAA/ CMEsTODAY`S ALERTS:    
SUNSPOT NUMBER

47

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

359-447

FLARE CLASS. C     :    
SOLAR FLUX

108

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 2.7

  M     CORONAL HOLES  
PLANETARY "A" INDEX

04

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

37- 120 nT

  X     NUMBER LATITUDE: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING FADING (OUT)  
                CH 502 . 30- 60° S DECAY FEB- 16 FEB- 19-20    
ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS:     CORONAL MASS EJECTION: PROPERTIES   CH 503 15- 30° N GROWING FEB- 23 FEB 26- 27    
REMARKS: ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY

appr. EARTH FACING ON CME ERUPTION TIME UTC SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH-DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:   CH 504 45- 50° N GROWING FEB- 24 FEB- 24    
  LONGITUDE LATITUDE   RECURR.= RECURRENT T.EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL  

rotating out of view>

11419

85°- 99° W

28° N

                 

rotating out of view >

11420

84° - 98°W

11° N

        FILAMENT ACTIVITIES   CME TRACKING NR.

14/12

 
SPOTLESS REGION producing flares >

11421

19° - 33°W

18° N

FEB- 23

      REGION LONG LAT. DATE CME AT (UTC):  
 

11422

64°- 78° W

16° N

         

N-E Quadrant

appr 25° W

T,EQU

20120214

3:29 UTC

 
NEWLY EMERGED>

11423

57°- 43° E

16° N

          DURATION EARTHBOUND? APPR. ARRIVAL:  
 

11424

69°- 55° E

07° N

           

3:29 UTC

7:00 UTC

FULLY HALO

FEB-

26- 27

                                 
REMARKS >    
                         

2012

MONTH:

FEBRUARY

 

DAY:

23

             
                           

SECTION 1 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

                       
                               

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!
  EXTERNAL SOURCES  

EARTHQUAKES

                     

by:

EMSC NEIC  

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

M 5.3 - SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE - 2012-02-23 05:08 UTC

will be available tomorrow!

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

will be updated each Thursday!              

RAPIDE MELTDOWN PHENOMENONS

                     
MEDIA REPORTS                       20120223 report by: .heraldsun.com.au  

Sixteen soldiers killed in avalanches

TWO massive avalanches in snowbound regions of Indian-controlled Kashmir have killed at least 16 soldiers, and at least three others were feared trapped in a military camp that was partially buried under snow, an official says. Colonel KS Grewal said three of the soldiers were killed in the mountainous area of Sonamarg and 13 were killed at a large army camp in Dawar, a town close to the heavily militarised ceasefire line that divides Kashmir between India and Pakistan. Hundreds of thousands of Indian troops are stationed along this de facto border....read more...

 

UNDER SPECIAL SURVEY:

                         
CYCLADE ISLAND / GREECE                       EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ SANTORIN/ GREECE FEB- 23- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O:

03

HIGHEST MEASURED MAGNITUDE: M 2.6 - DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE - 2012-02-23 10:41 UTC  

STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

               
                       
globaldisasterwatch.
 

TROPICAL STORMS - 
No current tropical storms.

 

TECHNICAL PHENOMENONS

                     
                        20120220 report by: .bbc.co.uk  

Cruise finds Fukushima pollution

Radioactive elements from the damaged Fukushima nuclear power plant have been detected in seawater and marine organisms up to 600km from Japan. But the scientists who made the discovery stress the natural radioactivity of seawater dwarfs anything seen in their samples. The results come from a research cruise in June last year led by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI).The initial findings were presented to the biennial Ocean Sciences Meeting.

 
MEDIA REPORTS                              
     
                           

SEKTION 2 :

CME ALERTS

 

 

SECTION 3 >>

 

EXPERIMENTAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST

 
Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:

 

 

  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  

( images below): another ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE was observed today- Feb 23 after 09:00 UTC. A detected on SDO animated imagery, the short explosion took place within the SPOTLESS region 11419 west of AR 11420 and 11422. The event was visible on STEREO Ahead (2) but not on Behind. On Feb 19- AR 11419 has yet produced a eruptive prominence

  QUIET

23- FEBRUARY- 2012

 
  UNSETTLED 5.5- > 7.0 possible  
MINOR STORM

24- FEBRUARY- 2012

MAJOR STORM 5.5- 6.5 2-3
   

25- FEBRUARY- 2012

 
 

NOTICES:

5.5- 6.5 2-3  
   

A minor , partially Earth directed CME was observed during a filament eruption on Feb- 19

IMPACT REGIONS> see below!  
DATE / TIME > (1) 20120223/ 16:42 UTC 20120223/ 10: 09 UTC   2012-02-23/ 9:12 UTC   MOST PROBABLE EVENT REGIONS:  

ACTIVE REGION:

not visible on STEREO BEHIND  

REGION D,E

CENTRAL EUROPE. W PACIFIC COAST (AMERICA)  
11419   VOLCANO/ STORM a.o. EARTHQUAKES  
SUN COORDINATES    
71°- 85° W/ 28° N    
TYPE OF ACTIVITY

ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE

TODAY`S CME ALERTS:
SATELLITE > STEREO "Behind " STEREO "Ahead"       IMPACT BEGIN (UTC) INT. CME NR.  
CLASSIFICATION                

none

          last prior CME ARRIVAL: EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS::  
CME AT:           20120218 11/12 MINOR-MEDIUM STORMS -VOLCANO ACTIVITIES- ELECTROMAGNETIC INDUCTION -RISING TEMERATURES -RAPIDE SNOW MELTDOWNS WITH AVALANCHES AND FLOODINGS  
FEB- 23/ after 9:00 UTC           145 nT MAX (nanoTesla)  
INTERNAL CME TRACKING NUMBER           APPROACHING CMEs EXPECTED ON: INT. NUMBER:  
13/12           0  

2012

   

/12

 
                     

3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT

 
EXPLANATIONS>

Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.

Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./ Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME or CME cluster/  
HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST> INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions! STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER CME IMPACT (LATENCY!) on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES between the RED and the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Minor ones between the yellow and green regions  

REGIONS

REGION "A"

REGION "B"

REGION "C"

REGION "D"

REGION "E"

REGION "F"

   
IMPACT REPORT to CME Nr 10/12> EASTERN EURASIA, S-W ASIA. INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES CENTRAL PACIFIC: KAMCHATKA, JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NZ, PNG,. VANUATU,. FIJI WESTERN USA AND EASTERN PACIFIC/ CANADA/ ALASKA/ USA WEST COASTS EASTERN AND CENTRAL AMERICA/ CARIBIC/COLUMBIA,/PERU ENTIRE ATLANTIC/ ICELAND, SOUTHERN AMERICA - EASTERN COAST CENTRAL EUROPE/ AFRICA/ ASIA MINOR

related CME ARRIVAL:

 
TIME ZONES> UTC + 9 >> UTC + 4 UTC+/- 12 >>> UTC+ 9 UTC- 9 >>>UTC+/- 12 UTC- 4 >>> UTC -9 UTC >> UTC - 4 UTC+ 4 >>> UTC

12/12

 
LONGITUDES>

120° E- 60° E

180° - 120° E

120° W- 180° W

60° W- 120° W

00° W- 60° W

60° E- 00°

20120222

 
               

SECTION 5

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

  solar data by: solen.info      
SOLAR PARAMETERS   SPECIAL SOLAR ACTIVITIES TOTAL:   NOAA/ CMEsTODAY`S ALERTS:    
SUNSPOT NUMBER

52

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

366-490

FLARE CLASS. C 01   :    
SOLAR FLUX

103

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 2.2

  M              
PLANETARY "A" INDEX

03

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

75- 120 nT

  X     CORONAL HOLES  
                NUMBER LATITUDE: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING FADING (OUT)  
ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS:     CORONAL MASS EJECTION: PROPERTIES   CH 502 . 30- 60° S GROWING FEB- 16 FEB- 19-20    
REMARKS: ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY

appr. EARTH FACING ON CME ERUPTION TIME UTC SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH-DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:   CH 503 15- 30° N GROWING FEB- 23 FEB 26- 27    
  LONGITUDE LATITUDE   RECURR.= RECURRENT TRANSEQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL  
eruptive prominence

11419

71°- 85° W

28° N

INTERNAL CME Tracking Nr.:_13/12 9:00 UTC VIRGO FLANK IMPACT ? FEB. 26?            
 

11420

70° - 84°W

11° N

        FILAMENT ACTIVITIES   CME TRACKING NR.    
SPOTLESS REGION producing flares >

11421

05°E -09°W

18° N

FEB- 23

      REGION LONG LAT. DATE CME AT (UTC):  
 

11422

50°- 64° W

16° N

                     
NEWLY EMERGED>

11423

70°- 56° E

16° N

          DURATION EARTHBOUND? APPR. ARRIVAL:  
                                 
REMARKS >    
                         

2012

MONTH:

FEBRUARY

 

DAY:

22

             
                           

SECTION 1 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

                       
                               

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!
  EXTERNAL SOURCES  

EARTHQUAKES

                     

by:

EMSC NEIC  

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

M 5.5 - KEPULAUAN KAI, INDONESIA - 2012-02-22 10:45 UTC

will be available tomorrow!

 
                       

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

will be updated each Thursday!              
MEDIA REPORTS                       201202xx report by: .bigislandvideonews.  

Hawaii scientists monitor earthquake swarm near Kilauea volcano

48 small quakes and counting on the Big Island as of Wednesday morning HAWAII VOLCANOES NATIONAL PARK, Hawaii: Scientists at the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory are keeping an eye on a swarm of small earthquakes around the active Kilauea volcano. In its morning status report, HVO wrote that there “is an ongoing seismic swarm just northwest of the summit.”UPDATE (4:00 pm Feb. 22nd) Media release from the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory: The U.S. Geological Survey’s Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) recorded an earthquake swarm that began around 1:17 a.m., HST, on Wednesday, February 22, 2012. The earthquakes are located about 5 km (3 mi) north-northwest of Kilauea volcano’s summit, near Namakanipaio in Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park, at depths of 2–5 km (1–3 mi). ...read more...

 
EVENTS NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL LOCAL SURVEY GOOGLE EARTH WEBCAM MAP: SOURCES:  
  SANTA MARIA/ GUATEMALA 14°45'21"N/ 91°33'6"W FEB- 22- 2012   INSIVUMEH SANTA MARIA   CEN-AM GVP  
MEDIA REPORTS                       20120221 report by: GVP  
INSIVUMEH reported that during 22-24 and 27-28 February explosions from Santa María's Santiaguito lava-domecomplex generated ash plumes that rose 600-1,300 m above the complex and drifted WSW, W, and WNW. Pyroclastic flows were generated during 22-23 February, and ash fall was reported in El Rosario (45 km SW), Monte Bello (S), Palajunoj (SW), and Quetzaltenango (18 km WNW) on 23 February. Clouds of gas and tephrawere also observed on 23 February. Constant avalanches descended the S flank during 23-24 and 27-28 February. Ash fall was reported in Monte Claro (S), San Marcos (46 km NW), Buena Vista (49 km NW), El Rosario, Monte Bello, and Palajunoj during 24 and 27-28 February. White plumes rose from the Caliente Cone and drifted WSW on 27 February.  

Smithsonian / USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report

15 February-21 February 2012

New Activity/Unrest: | Cleveland, Chuginadak Island | Kanaga, Andreanof Islands | Reventador, Ecuador |Tinakula, Santa Cruz Islands (SW Pacific) | Tungurahua, Ecuador | Turrialba, Costa Rica 
Ongoing Activity: | Bezymianny, Central Kamchatka (Russia) | Hierro, Canary Islands (Spain) | Karymsky, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) | Kilauea, Hawaii (USA) | Kizimen, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) |Popocatépetl, México | Puyehue-Cordón Caulle, Central Chile | Sakura-jima, Kyushu | Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia)

This page is updated on Wednesdays. Please see the GVP Home Page for news of the latest significant activity.

 

UNDER SPECIAL SURVEY:

                         
CYCLADE ISLAND / GREECE                       EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ SANTORIN/ GREECE FEB- 22- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O:

02

HIGHEST MEASURED MAGNITUDE: M 2.5 - DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE - 2012-02-22 23:16 UTC  
CANARY ISLAND / SPAIN                       EMSC  
      FEB- 22- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O:

01

HIGHEST MEASURED MAGNITUDE: Earthquake > M 2.6 - CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION - 2012-02-22 07:55 UTC  

STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

               
                       
.wunderground.com
 

Tropical Cyclone Hilwa Wind: 45 MPH — Position: -20.5S 63.7E — Bewegungsrichtung: SSW...read more..

 

TECHNICAL PHENOMENONS

                     
                        20120220 report by: .bbc.co.uk  

MPs warn over electro-magnetic pulse threat

The government must take seriously the threat of a major electro-magnetic pulse event, MPs are warning. Sudden fluctuations in the magnetic field caused by weather in space or nuclear attack, could wipe out electricity and GPS, used by the military and financial markets. A Defence Select Committee report said the government appeared "somewhat complacent" about the risks. It called for a clear...The report also warned that the effects of a nuclear weapon exploding hundreds of miles above the Earth's surface - known as a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse device - would be so serious that only the government could mitigate it."We are concerned that the government does not regard EMP from a nuclear blast as currently being a high risk and so we urge that more vigorous action should be taken to prepare for such an attack," Mr Arbuthnot said....read more...

 

 
MEDIA REPORTS                              

NATURAL PHENOMENONS

                     
                        20120220 report by: science.nasa.gov/  

The Fireballs of February

Feb. 22, 2012: In the middle of the night on February 13th, something disturbed the animal population of rural Portal, Georgia. Cows started mooing anxiously and local dogs howled at the sky. The cause of the commotion was a rock from space. "At 1:43 AM Eastern, I witnessed an amazing fireball," reports Portal resident Henry Strickland. "It was very large and lit up half the sky as it fragmented. The event set dogs barking and upset cattle, which began to make excited sounds. I regret I didn't have a camera; it lasted nearly 6 seconds." Strickland witnessed one of the unusual "Fireballs of February....read more...

 
                           

SEKTION 2 :

CME ALERTS

 

 

SECTION 3 >>

 

EXPERIMENTAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST

 
Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:

From February 19- 20-. the geomagnetic field was influenced by a constant increased solar wind stream from flare activities in AR 11422 . This influence increased the energy in the geomag field. resp held up the level caused by the latest multiple CME impacts. While volcanic activities increased, Earthquake activities had been therefore low during the last days, but will just delay. One or more stronger Earthquake (with magnitudes higher than 7.0 )should be expected in the next days ! (From February 22/23 on?) (LATENCY ALERT LEVEL>)

The two large CHs 501 andCH 502 currently dominate the visibly sun disc. While CH 501 had decayed until Feb 20, CH 502 was still growing on Feb 21.The irregularities in Sun wind pressure created by these gravitational processes caused larger fluctuations in the geomagnetic field over the past days. ( minor geomagnetic storm conditions)

 

  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  
  QUIET

22- FEBRUARY- 2012

 
  UNSETTLED 5.5- >7.0 2-3/ LATENCY)  
MINOR STORM

23- FEBRUARY- 2012

MAJOR STORM 5.5- > 7.0 possible
   

24- FEBRUARY- 2012

 
 

NOTICES:

5.5- 6.5 2-3  
 

A minor , partially Earth directed CME was observed during a filament eruption on Feb- 19

IMPACT REGIONS> see below!  
DATE / TIME >           MOST PROBABLE EVENT REGIONS:  

ACTIVE REGION:

         

REGION C, D

N/S- AMERICA/ WEST PACIFIC COAST  
    VOLCANO/ STORM a.o. EARTHQUAKES  
LATITUDE    
     
TYPE OF ACTIVITY

 

TODAY`S CME ALERTS:
SATELLITE > STEREO "Behind " STEREO "Ahead"       IMPACT BEGIN (UTC) INT. CME NR.  
CLASSIFICATION           FEB 22/ 3:00 12/12  

 

          last prior CME ARRIVAL: EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS::  
CME AT:           20120218 11/12 MINOR-MEDIUM STORMS -VOLCANO ACTIVITIES- ELECTROMAGNETIC INDUCTION -RISING TEMERATURES -RAPIDE SNOW MELTDOWNS WITH AVALANCHES AND FLOODINGS  
            145 nT MAX (nanoTesla)  
INTERNAL CME TRACKING NUMBER           APPROACHING CMEs EXPECTED ON: INT. NUMBER:  
            01 MINOR

2012

22-23

12

/12

 
                     

3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT

 
EXPLANATIONS>

Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.

Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./ Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME or CME cluster/  
HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST> INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions! STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER CME IMPACT (LATENCY!) on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES between the RED and the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Minor ones between the yellow and green regions  

REGIONS

REGION "A"

REGION "B"

REGION "C"

REGION "D"

REGION "E"

REGION "F"

   
IMPACT REPORT to CME Nr 10/12> EASTERN EURASIA, S-W ASIA. INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES CENTRAL PACIFIC: KAMCHATKA, JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NZ, PNG,. VANUATU,. FIJI WESTERN USA AND EASTERN PACIFIC/ CANADA/ ALASKA/ USA WEST COASTS EASTERN AND CENTRAL AMERICA/ CARIBIC/COLUMBIA,/PERU ENTIRE ATLANTIC/ ICELAND, SOUTHERN AMERICA - EASTERN COAST CENTRAL EUROPE/ AFRICA/ ASIA MINOR

related CME ARRIVAL:

 
TIME ZONES> UTC + 9 >> UTC + 4 UTC+/- 12 >>> UTC+ 9 UTC- 9 >>>UTC+/- 12 UTC- 4 >>> UTC -9 UTC >> UTC - 4 UTC+ 4 >>> UTC

12/12

 
LONGITUDES>

120° E- 60° E

180° - 120° E

120° W- 180° W

60° W- 120° W

00° W- 60° W

60° E- 00°

20120222

 
                         

SECTION 4: CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS

CME TRACKING

        ARRIVAL:            

TRACKING NR.:

12/12

SOLAR EVENT DATA

CME EVENT

APPROACHING >

ACE

GOES

 

20120222

< IMPACT > CME ARRIVAL DATA (EARTH)  

filament eruption during LDE flare in AR 11422

AR LONG LAT. DATE

EVENT CLASS.

SAT./ ARRIVAL TIMES >

20120222

3:00 UTC

20120222/ 3:00 UTC UTC

 

IMPACT > 100 nT

MAIN IMPACT PEAK VALUE RELATIVE MASS* PRIMARY IMPACT REGIONS (red backcolored)  
12/12 CH 11419 03°E- 11° W 16° N FEB- 19 minor filament eruption during LDE flare - ONGOING INDONESIA   10- 24 UTC 13- 20 UTC 120 nT 140

CENTRAL EUROPE>> CENTRAL AMERICA

 
  Region 11419 has , though it consists out of two aneighbored regions with opposite polarity, no visible sun spots ,but unleashed a CME on Feb19 that arrived on Feb 22. ( Nr 12/12). Differently to all CMEs I have analysed yet, this one obviously had no significant negative or positive load ( electrones or protons) .The Russian station in Moscow measured an increase of Neutrons of the doubleof normal values at its arrival.PEAKS: 7:00 UTC( ongoing) FIRST SOLAR WIND SHOCK           INDONESIA/ PHILLIPPINES(  
            SECONDARY >  
               

SECTION 5

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

  solar data by: solen.info      
SOLAR PARAMETERS   SPECIAL SOLAR ACTIVITIES TOTAL:   NOAA/ CMEsTODAY`S ALERTS:    
SUNSPOT NUMBER

31

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

350-532

FLARE CLASS. C     :    
SOLAR FLUX

104

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX: B 1.8   M              
PLANETARY "A" INDEX

09

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

20- 120 nT

  X     CORONAL HOLES  
                NUMBER LATITUDE: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING FADING (OUT)  
ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS:     CORONAL MASS EJECTION: PROPERTIES   CH 502 . 30- 60° S GROWING FEB- 16 FEB- 19-20    
REMARKS: ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY

appr. EARTH FACING ON CME ERUPTION TIME UTC SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH-DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:   CH 503 15- 30° N GROWING FEB- 23 FEB 26- 27    
  LONGITUDE LATITUDE   RECURR.= RECURRENT TRANSEQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL  
 

11419

57°- 71° W

28° N

                 
 

11420

57° - 61°W

11° N

        FILAMENT ACTIVITIES   CME TRACKING NR.    
SPOTLESS REGION producing flares >

11421

23° -07°E

18° N

FEB- 23

      REGION LONG LAT. DATE CME AT (UTC):  
 

11422

38°- 52° W

16° N

                     
                                 
REMARKS >    
                         

2012

MONTH:

FEBRUARY

 

DAY:

21

             
                           

SECTION 1 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

                       
                               

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!
  EXTERNAL SOURCES  

EARTHQUAKES

                     

by:

EMSC NEIC  

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

M 5.3 - BERING STRAIT - 2012-02-21 13:50 UTC

will be available tomorrow!

 
                       

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

will be updated each Thursday!              
MEDIA REPORTS                       20120221 report by: .volcanodiscovery  

Canlaon volcano (Philippines): new cracks in crater area after 6 Feb 2012 earthquake

Three 50 m wide cracks have appeared on on the upper flank of Canlaon volcano (also spelled Kanlaon) near the crater after the M6.7 earthquake on Negros island in the Philippines on 6 Feb 2012. According to PHILVOLCS, the Philippine volcano monitoring agency, the cracks were caused by the earthquake and are not likely a precursor for a new eruption, which would be the first since 2006, although Canalon is one of the country's most active volcanoes. ...read more

 
MEDIA REPORTS                       20120220 report by: .bendbulletin.com  

A volcanic growth spurt Bolivian volcano Uturuncu is fertile ground for research, study and fascination

UTURUNCU VOLCANO, Bolivia — The broad hill at the base of Uturuncu is unassuming. Its gentle arc fades naturally into the Andean landscape. But the 43-mile-long stretch of rocky soil is now an object of international scientific fascination. Satellite measurements show that the hill has been rising more than half an inch a year for almost 20 years, suggesting that the volcano, which last erupted more than 300,000 years ago, is steadily inflating. ...read more...

 

UNDER SPECIAL SURVEY:

                         
CYCLADE ISLAND / GREECE                       EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ SANTORIN/ GREECE FEB- 21- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O:

01

HIGHEST MEASURED MAGNITUDE: M 2.4 - DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE - 2012-02-21 11:39 UTC  

STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

               
                       
report by: globaldisasterwatch..com
 

TROPICAL STORMS - 
In the Indian Ocean - 
- Tropical cyclone 12s (Giovanna) was located approximately 410 nm southeast of Antananarivo, Madagascar. This is the final warning on this system by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The system will be closely monitored for signs of regeneration. 
- Tropical cyclone 13s (Hilwa) was located approximately 410 nm east of port Louis, Mauritius.

 

NATURAL PHENOMENONS

                     
                        20120220 report by: .bbc.co.uk  
 

Ancient plants back to life after 30,000 frozen years

Scientists in Russia have grown plants from fruit stored away in permafrost by squirrels over 30,000 years ago. The fruit was found in the banks of the Kolmya River in Siberia, a top site for people looking for mammoth bones. The Institute of Cell Biophysics team raised plants of Silene stenophylla - of the campion family - from the fruit. Writing in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), they note this is the oldest plant material by far to have been brought to life. Prior to this, the record lay with date palm seeds stored for 2,000 years at Masada in Israel....read more...

 

 
MEDIA REPORTS                              
     
                           

SEKTION 2 :

CME ALERTS

 

 

SECTION 3 >>

 

EXPERIMENTAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST

 
Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:

From February 19- 20-. the geomagnetic field was influenced by a constant increased solar wind stream from flare activities in AR 11422 . This influence increased the energy in the geomag field. resp held up the level caused by the latest multiple CME impacts. While volcanic activities increased, Earthquake activities had been therefore low during the last days, but will just delay. One or more stronger Earthquake (with magnitudes higher than 7.0 )should be expected in the next days ! (From February 22/23 on?) (LATENCY ALERT LEVEL>)

The two large CHs 501 andCH 502 currently dominate the visibly sun disc. While CH 501 had decayed until Feb 20, CH 502 was still growing on Feb 21.The irregularities in Sun wind pressure created by these gravitational processes caused larger fluctuations in the geomagnetic field over the past days. ( minor geomagnetic storm conditions)

 

  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  
  QUIET

21- FEBRUARY- 2012

 
  UNSETTLED 5.5- 7.0 LATENCY!  
MINOR STORM

22- FEBRUARY- 2012

MAJOR STORM 5.5- 7.0 2-3
   

23- FEBRUARY- 2012

 
 

NOTICES:

5.5- 6.5 2-3  
 

A minor , partially Earth directed CME was observed during a filament eruption on Feb- 19

IMPACT REGIONS> see below!  
DATE / TIME >           MOST PROBABLE EVENT REGIONS:  

ACTIVE REGION:

         

REGION C, D

N/S- AMERICA/ WEST PACIFIC COAST  
    VOLCANO/ STORM a.o. EARTHQUAKES  
LATITUDE    
     
TYPE OF ACTIVITY

 

TODAY`S CME ALERTS:
SATELLITE > STEREO "Behind " STEREO "Ahead"       IMPACT BEGIN (UTC) INT. CME NR.  
CLASSIFICATION       CH 502/ 20120221        

 

        last prior CME ARRIVAL: EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS::  
CME AT:         20120218 11/12 MINOR-MEDIUM STORMS -VOLCANO ACTIVITIES- ELECTROMAGNETIC INDUCTION -RISING TEMERATURES -RAPIDE SNOW MELTDOWNS WITH AVALANCHES AND FLOODINGS  
          145 nT MAX (nanoTesla)  
INTERNAL CME TRACKING NUMBER         APPROACHING CMEs EXPECTED ON: INT. NUMBER:  
          01 MINOR

2012

22-23

12

/12

 
SATELLITE > STEREO "Behind " SDO /AIA( comp. SoHO/ LASCO C2 STAR MAP b: solen.info   NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION / last 24 hours:  

 

  geomagnetic storms (G)  

radio blackouts (R)

-- solar radiation storms(S) --  
                     

3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT

 
EXPLANATIONS>

Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.

Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./ Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME or CME cluster/  
HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST> INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions! STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER CME IMPACT (LATENCY!) on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES between the RED and the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Minor ones between the yellow and green regions  

REGIONS

REGION "A"

REGION "B"

REGION "C"

REGION "D"

REGION "E"

REGION "F"

   
IMPACT REPORT to CME Nr 10/12> EASTERN EURASIA, S-W ASIA. INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES CENTRAL PACIFIC: KAMCHATKA, JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NZ, PNG,. VANUATU,. FIJI WESTERN USA AND EASTERN PACIFIC/ CANADA/ ALASKA/ USA WEST COASTS EASTERN AND CENTRAL AMERICA/ CARIBIC/COLUMBIA,/PERU ENTIRE ATLANTIC/ ICELAND, SOUTHERN AMERICA - EASTERN COAST CENTRAL EUROPE/ AFRICA/ ASIA MINOR

related CME ARRIVAL:

 
TIME ZONES> UTC + 9 >> UTC + 4 UTC+/- 12 >>> UTC+ 9 UTC- 9 >>>UTC+/- 12 UTC- 4 >>> UTC -9 UTC >> UTC - 4 UTC+ 4 >>> UTC

11/12

 
LONGITUDES>

120° E- 60° E

180° - 120° E

120° W- 180° W

60° W- 120° W

00° W- 60° W

60° E- 00°

20120218

 
               

SECTION 5

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

  solar data by: solen.info      
SOLAR PARAMETERS   SPECIAL SOLAR ACTIVITIES TOTAL:   NOAA/ CMEsTODAY`S ALERTS:    
SUNSPOT NUMBER

61

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

350-464

FLARE CLASS. C

01

  :    
SOLAR FLUX

103

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 2.1

  M              
PLANETARY "A" INDEX

06

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

50- 110 nT

  X     CORONAL HOLES  
                NUMBER LATITUDE: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING FADING (OUT)  
ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS:     CORONAL MASS EJECTION: PROPERTIES   CH 502 . 30- 60° S GROWING FEB- 16 FEB- 19-20    
REMARKS: ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY

appr. EARTH FACING ON CME ERUPTION TIME UTC SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH-DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:                
  LONGITUDE LATITUDE   RECURR.= RECURRENT TRANSEQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL  
 

 

                     
 

11419

43°- 57° W

28° N

        FILAMENT ACTIVITIES   CME TRACKING NR.    
 

11420

43° - 57°W

11° N

        REGION LONG LAT. DATE CME AT (UTC):  
SPOTLESS REGION producing flares >

11421

23° -07°E

18° N

FEB- 23                    
 

11422

24°- 38° W

16° N

          DURATION EARTHBOUND? APPR. ARRIVAL:  
                             
                                 
REMARKS >    

 

/ eruptive proinence

 

 

                         

YEAR:

2012

MONTH:

FEBRUARY

 

DAY:

20

             
                           

SECTION 1 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

                       
                                 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!
  EXTERNAL SOURCES  

EARTHQUAKES

                       

by:

EMSC NEIC  

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

M 5.7 - OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO - 2012-02-20 19:09 UTC

will be available tomorrow!

 
                         

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

will be updated each Thursday!              
EVENTS NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL LOCAL SURVEY GOOGLE EARTH WEBCAM

:

SOURCES:  
                     
SWARM EARTHQUAKES:                         201202xx report by:    

.

Earthquakes swarms continued (increasing in numbers on Feb 19 also in;

WESTERN TURKEY - 10 quakes- highest magnitude: M 4.5 - WESTERN TURKEY - 2012-02-20 06:34 UTC (see map right side>)

EASSTERRN TURKEY ( near to the city of VAN)- highest magnitude: M 3.0 - EASTERN TURKEY - 2012-02-20 19:23 UTC (see map löeft side)

 

UNDER SPECIAL SURVEY:

                           
CYCLADE ISLAND / GREECE                         EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ SANTORIN/ GREECE FEB- 20- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O:

02

HIGHEST MEASURED MAGNITUDE: M 3.5 - DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE - 2012-02-20 12:18 UTC  

STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

                 

 

                         
report by: globaldisasterwatch..com
 

TROPICAL STORMS - 
In the Indian Ocean -
-Tropical cyclone 12s (Giovanna) was located approximately 455 nm south-southeast of Antananarivo, Madagascar.
-Tropical cyclone 13s was located approximately 650 nm east of Port Louis, Mauritius.

 

NATURAL PHENOMENONS

                       
                          20120220 report by: .bbc.co.uk  
 

Boats sink in Belgrade as thaw causes Danube ice chaos

A rapid thaw has brought chaos to the River Danube in the Serbian capital Belgrade, where ice damaged boats, pontoons and floating restaurants. The thick ice covered one of Europe's busiest waterways during the recent freeze, but began to break up on Sunday as temperatures rose. In Belgrade, boats crashed into each other but there were no immediate reports of casualties....read more...

 
                               

SEKTION 2 :

CME ALERTS

 

 

SECTION 3 >>

 

EXPERIMENTAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST

 
Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:

 

  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  
    QUIET

20- FEBRUARY- 2012

 

From February 19- 20-. the geomagnetic field was influenced by a constant increased solar wind stream from flare activities in AR 11422 . This influence increased the energy in the geomag field. resp held up the level caused by the latest multiple CME impacts. While volcanic activities increased, Earthquake activities had been therefore low during the last days, but will just delay. One or more stronger Earthquake (with magnitudes higher than 7.0 )should be expected in the next days ! (From February 22/23 on?) (LATENCY ALERT LEVEL>)

  UNSETTLED 5.5- 7.0 LATENCY  
MINOR STORM

21- FEBRUARY- 2012

MAJOR STORM 5.5- 7.0 2-3
   

22- FEBRUARY- 2012

 
 

NOTICES:

5.5- 7.0 2-3  
   

A minor , partially Earth directed CME was observed during a filament eruption on Feb- 19

IMPACT REGIONS> see below!  
DATE / TIME >           MOST PROBABLE EVENT REGIONS:  

ACTIVE REGION:

         

REGION C, D

N/S- AMERICA/ WEST PACIFIC COAST  
    VOLCANO/ STORM a.o. EARTHQUAKES  
LONGITUDE LATITUDE    
       
TYPE OF ACTIVITY

 

TODAY`S CME ALERTS:
SATELLITE > STEREO "Behind " STEREO "Ahead"       IMPACT BEGIN INT. CME NR.  
CLASSIFICATION                

 

          last prior CME ARRIVAL: EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS::  
CME AT:           20120218 11/12 MINOR-MEDIUM STORMS -VOLCANO ACTIVITIES- ELECTROMAGNETIC INDUCTION -RISING TEMERATURES -RAPIDE SNOW MELTDOWNS WITH AVALANCHES AND FLOODINGS  
            145 nT MAX (nanoTesla)  
INTERNAL CME TRACKING NUMBER           APPROACHING CMEs EXPECTED ON: INT. NUMBER:  
            01 MINOR

2012

22-23

12

/12

 
SATELLITE > STEREO "Behind " SDO /AIA( comp. SoHO/ LASCO C2 STAR MAP b: solen.info   NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION / last 24 hours:  

 

  geomagnetic storms (G)  

radio blackouts (R)

-- solar radiation storms(S) --  
                       

3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT

 
EXPLANATIONS>

Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.

Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./ Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME or CME cluster/  
HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST> INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions! STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER CME IMPACT (LATENCY!) on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES between the RED and the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Minor ones between the yellow and green regions  

REGIONS

REGION "A"

REGION "B"

REGION "C"

REGION "D"

REGION "E"

REGION "F"

   
IMPACT REPORT to CME Nr 10/12> EASTERN EURASIA, S-W ASIA. INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES CENTRAL PACIFIC: KAMCHATKA, JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NZ, PNG,. VANUATU,. FIJI WESTERN USA AND EASTERN PACIFIC/ CANADA/ ALASKA/ USA WEST COASTS EASTERN AND CENTRAL AMERICA/ CARIBIC/COLUMBIA,/PERU ENTIRE ATLANTIC/ ICELAND, SOUTHERN AMERICA - EASTERN COAST CENTRAL EUROPE/ AFRICA/ ASIA MINOR

related CME ARRIVAL:

 
TIME ZONES> UTC + 9 >> UTC + 4 UTC+/- 12 >>> UTC+ 9 UTC- 9 >>>UTC+/- 12 UTC- 4 >>> UTC -9 UTC >> UTC - 4 UTC+ 4 >>> UTC

11/12

 
LONGITUDES>

120° E- 60° E

180° - 120° E

120° W- 180° W

60° W- 120° W

00° W- 60° W

60° E- 00°

20120218

 
               

SECTION 5

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

  solar data by: solen.info      
SOLAR PARAMETERS     SPECIAL SOLAR ACTIVITIES TOTAL:   NOAA/ CMEsTODAY`S ALERTS:    
SUNSPOT NUMBER

59

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

443-559

FLARE CLASS. C 03   :    
SOLAR FLUX

111

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 2.4

  M              
PLANETARY "A" INDEX

17

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

20- 125 nT

  X     CORONAL HOLES  
                  NUMBER LATITUDE: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING FADING (OUT)  
ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS:     CORONAL MASS EJECTION: QUALITIES   CH 502 . 30- 60° S GROWING FEB- 16 FEB- 19-20    
REMARKS: ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY

appr. EARTH FACING ON

SIGNIFICANT FLARES

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH-DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:                
    LONGITUDE LATITUDE   RECURR.= RECURRENT TRANSEQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL  
 

 

                       
 

11419

31°- 45° W

28° N

          FILAMENT ACTIVITIES   CME TRACKING NR.    
 

11420

29° - 43°W

11° N

          REGION LONG LAT. DATE CME AT (UTC):  
SPOTLESS REGION producing flares >

11421

35° -21°E

18° N

FEB- 23                      
 

11422

11°- 25° W

16° N

  CRITICAL         DURATION EARTHBOUND? APPR. ARRIVAL:  
                               
                                   
REMARKS >    

 

 

                         

YEAR:

2012

MONTH:

FEBRUARY

 

DAY:

19

             
                           

SECTION 1 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

                       
                                 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!
  EXTERNAL SOURCES  

EARTHQUAKES

                       

by:

EMSC NEIC  

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

M 5.3 - NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN - 2012-02-19 05:54 UTC

will be available tomorrow!

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

will be updated each Thursday!              
NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL LOCAL SURVEY GOOGLE EARTH WEBCAM

:

SOURCES: SOURCES:  
RINCON DE LA VIEJA/ Costa Rica 10°49'48"N/ 85°19'26"W FEB- 19- 2012   OVSICORI-UNA RINCON DE LA VIEJA none CENTR-AM. GVP      

COSTA RICA/ RINCON DE LA VIEJA

OVSICORI-UNA reported that seismic data revealed two eruptions on 19 and 20 February from Rincón de la Vieja's active crater. Two more eruptions also occurred on 23 February. Explosions were heard in Guachipelin (11 km SW) between 0400 and 0430.

 

 

UNDER SPECIAL SURVEY:

                           
CYCLADE ISLAND / GREECE                         EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ SANTORIN/ GREECE FEB- 19- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O:

none

HIGHEST MEASURED MAGNITUDE:    

STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

                 

 

                         
report by: globaldisasterwatch..com
 

TROPICAL STORMS - 
In the Indian Ocean - 
-Tropical cyclone 12s (Giovanna) was located approximately 430 nm south of Antananarivo, Madagascar.
-Tropical cyclone 13s was located approximately 1105 nm east of La Reunion.

 
MEDIA REPORTS                         20120219 report by: allafrica.com  

 

Madagascar: Deadly Cyclone Likely to Hit Again

Antananarivo — A powerful cyclone that hit the Madagascar is again threatening to touch down, just days after killing eight people and displacing about 40,000 others. The eye of Cyclone Giovanna was located some 175 kilometres south-east of Tolagnaro -- a town about 1,110 kilometres south of the capital Antananarivo -- today at 6am, the Malagasy Meteorological Service said. The cyclone made landfall Monday in the sugar-producing district of Brickaville in eastern Madagascar, causing massive damage there before going through the central islands and exiting in the south-west....read more...

 

HERAVY WEATHER>

                 

 

                        20120218 report by: .bbc.co.ukl  

Expert skiers killed by avalanche in Washington state

Three expert skiers have died in an avalanche near a ski resort in the US state of Washington. Rescuers were sent to an out-of-bounds area near Stevens Pass resort on Sunday around noon local time (20:00 GMT). One woman swept down the mountain survived the avalanche. Stevens Pass is located in the Cascade Mountains, north-east of Seattle. The area has seen heavy snowfall in recent days, with as much as 2ft (61cm) of fresh snow before the avalanche. A larger group of about 12 skiers were travelling in a backcountry area known as Tunnel Creek when the avalanche was triggered....read more...

 

NATURAL PHENOMENONS

                       
                          20120217 report by: .inquirer.net  
 

PHILIPPINES/ DUMANJUG, Cebu—Residents of a village here expressed alarm over a sinkhole that formed after an explosion, reviving tension in a community that is still nervous following an intensity 6.9 earthquake recently. The hole was first discovered by a farm caretaker in Barangay Cambuang on Friday. It was initially the size of a frying pan, said Walter Pesablon, 36, who was watching over a 3-hectare farm in the village. Pesablon said he didn’t pay much attention to the hole at first, but when he returned to look at it after having breakfast, he noticed the soil moving and cracks forming around the hole. An hour later, an explosion shattered the early morning silence of the village...read more...

 
MEDIA REPORTS                         20120218 report by: .bbc.co.uk  
     
                               

SEKTION 2 :

CME ALERTS

 

 

SECTION 3 >>

 

EXPERIMENTAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST

 
Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:

 

  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  

A minor filament eruption was observed on February 19 after 8:50 UTC in Ar 11422. (1)(2)

AR 11422 has envolved on February 19 and formed quickly the largest sun spots currently visible on the sun disc. It has a significant penumbra and might be capable for M or X flares. The LDE filament eruption occured near to AR 11422 and with 16°N and 03° E in a direct Earth position. A weak slow moving CMEbecame visible on SoHo after midnight on FEB 20/ 00:18 (3) and might arrive on Feb. 22- 23

  QUIET

19- FEBRUARY- 2012

 
  UNSETTLED 5.5- 7.0 LATENCY  
MINOR STORM

20- FEBRUARY- 2012

MAJOR STORM 5.5- 7.0 2-3
   

21- FEBRUARY- 2012

 
 

NOTICES:

5.5- 7.0 2-3  
   

A major portion of a minor and extreme low CMEs observed on FEB 14 and early 15 arrived late today on February 18

The impact strength is below 150 nT ( minor) . The event was ongoing at 24:00 UTC

IMPACT REGIONS> see below!  
DATE / TIME > (1) 20120219/ 8:57 UTC (2) 20120219/ 9:42 UTC (3) 20120220/ 00:18 UTC     MOST PROBABLE EVENT REGIONS:  

ACTIVE REGION:

   

REGION C, D

N/S- AMERICA/ WEST PACIFIC COAST  
    VOLCANO/ STORM a.o. EARTHQUAKES  
LONGITUDE LATITUDE    
       
TYPE OF ACTIVITY

 

TODAY`S CME ALERTS:
SATELLITE > SDO /AIA( comp.   SoHO/ LASCO C3     IMPACT BEGIN INT. CME NR.  
CLASSIFICATION                

 

          last prior CME ARRIVAL: EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS::  
CME AT:           20120218 11/12 MINOR-MEDIUM STORMS -VOLCANO ACTIVITIES- ELECTROMAGNETIC INDUCTION -RISING TEMERATURES -RAPIDE SNOW MELTDOWNS WITH AVALANCHES AND FLOODINGS  
            145 nT MAX (nanoTesla)  
INTERNAL CME TRACKING NUMBER           APPROACHING CMEs EXPECTED ON: INT. NUMBER:  
            01 MINOR

2012

22-23

12

/12

 
SATELLITE > STEREO "Behind " STEREO "Ahead" SoHO/ LASCO C2 STAR MAP b: solen.info   NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION / last 24 hours:  

 

  geomagnetic storms (G)  

radio blackouts (R)

-- solar radiation storms(S) --  
                       

3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT

 
EXPLANATIONS>

Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.

Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./ Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME or CME cluster/  
HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST> INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions! STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER CME IMPACT (LATENCY!) on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES between the RED and the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Minor ones between the yellow and green regions  

REGIONS

REGION "A"

REGION "B"

REGION "C"

REGION "D"

REGION "E"

REGION "F"

   
IMPACT REPORT to CME Nr 10/12> EASTERN EURASIA, S-W ASIA. INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES CENTRAL PACIFIC: KAMCHATKA, JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NZ, PNG,. VANUATU,. FIJI WESTERN USA AND EASTERN PACIFIC/ CANADA/ ALASKA/ USA WEST COASTS EASTERN AND CENTRAL AMERICA/ CARIBIC/COLUMBIA,/PERU ENTIRE ATLANTIC/ ICELAND, SOUTHERN AMERICA - EASTERN COAST CENTRAL EUROPE/ AFRICA/ ASIA MINOR

related CME ARRIVAL:

 
TIME ZONES> UTC + 9 >> UTC + 4 UTC+/- 12 >>> UTC+ 9 UTC- 9 >>>UTC+/- 12 UTC- 4 >>> UTC -9 UTC >> UTC - 4 UTC+ 4 >>> UTC

11/12

 
LONGITUDES>

120° E- 60° E

180° - 120° E

120° W- 180° W

60° W- 120° W

00° W- 60° W

60° E- 00°

20120218

 
               

SECTION 5

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

  solar data by: solen.info      
SOLAR PARAMETERS     SPECIAL SOLAR ACTIVITIES TOTAL:   NOAA/ CMEsTODAY`S ALERTS:    
SUNSPOT NUMBER 69 AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

338-476

FLARE CLASS. C 01   :    
SOLAR FLUX 105 X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 2.0

  M              
PLANETARY "A" INDEX 16 GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

20- 125 nT

  X     CORONAL HOLES  
                  NUMBER LATITUDE: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING FADING (OUT)  
ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS:     CORONAL MASS EJECTION: QUALITIES   CH 502 . 30- 60° S GROWING FEB- 16 FEB- 19-20    
REMARKS: ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY

appr. EARTH FACING ON

SIGNIFICANT FLARES

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH-DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:                
    LONGITUDE LATITUDE   RECURR.= RECURRENT TRANSEQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL  
 

11417

                       
 

11419

20°- 34° W

28° N

          FILAMENT ACTIVITIES   CME TRACKING NR. 12/12 (1/2)  
 

11420

16° - 30°W

11° N

          REGION LONG LAT. DATE CME AT (UTC):  
 

11421

47° -33°E

18° N

            AR 11422 03°E- 11° W 16° N 20120219 8: 57 UTC  

11422

03°E- 11° W

16° N

  CRITICAL         DURATION EARTHBOUND? APPR. ARRIVAL:  
                      8:57 10:30 partial FEB-22- 23 2012
                                   
REMARKS >    

 

 

                         

YEAR:

2012

MONTH:

FEBRUARY

 

DAY:

18

             
                           

SECTION 1 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

                       
                                 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!
  EXTERNAL SOURCES  

EARTHQUAKES

                       

by:

EMSC NEIC  

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

M 5.3 - OFFSHORE OAXACA, MEXICO - 2012-02-18 01:34 UTC

will be available tomorrow!

 
                         

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

will be updated each Thursday!              
EVENTS NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL LOCAL SURVEY GOOGLE EARTH WEBCAM

:

SOURCES:  
  KANAGA (Aleutian islands) 51°55'22"N/ 177°10'4"W FEB- 18- 2012   AVO KANAGA none   GVP  
 

AVO reported possible explosive activity at Kanaga on 18 February. Volcanic tremor detected during 0623-0627 was followed by about an hour of numerous small seismic events. Satellite images showed a detached ash plume, 8 km in length, which drifted 39 km NE. AVO raised the Aviation Color Code to Yellow and the Volcano Alert Levelto Advisory on 18 February. Elevated seismic activity continued on 19 February, and photographs taken by a local observer showed a small steam plume. Clouds prevented views of the volcano during 19-21 February.

 
MEDIA REPORTS                         20120218 report by: volcanodiscovery.com  

Kanaga volcano (Aleutian Islands, Alaska): possible new eruption detected

The remote Kanaga stratovolcano in the Aleutian Islands might have begun erupting, the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) reports. 
A possible ash cloud about 39 km (24 mi) NE of the volcano, likely from weak explosive activity, was detected on satellite imagery, and volcanic tremor was detected under the volcano from 15:23-15:27 UTC (6:23 AM AKST) on 18 February, followed by numerous small events for about an hour at Kanaga Volcano. 

 
                                 
MEDIA REPORTS                         20120218 report by: volcanodiscovery.com  

Mt Fuji volcano (Japan): signs of volcanic unrest reported

Reports are appearing about unrest and signs of a possible awakening of Mt Fuji volcano in Japan. 
According to a report which includes an unclear photo of the area, a row of new craters, the largest 50 m in diameter, has appeared on the eastern flank of the volcano at 2200 m elevation. Steam was observed erupting from these vents.  ...read more...

 

Saturday, Feb 18, 2012 Santiaguito & Santa Maria volcano (Guatemala): news and activity updates / 19 Jan - 18 Feb 2012 Moderate explosions continue producing small gray ash columns, and ashfall in the areas of the nearby farms to the west. Weak avalanches occur from the front of the small active lava flow on the southeast side of Santiaguito...read more...

 
     

UNDER SPECIAL SURVEY:

                           
CYCLADE ISLAND / GREECE                         EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ SANTORIN/ GREECE FEB- 18- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O:

03

HIGHEST MEASURED MAGNITUDE: M 2.8 - DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE - 2012-02-18 03:05 UTC  
EL HIERRO/ CANARY ISLANDS FEB- 18- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O:

01

HIGHEST MEASURED MAGNITUDE: M 3.3 - CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION - 2012-02-18 13:28 UTC  

New tremor activity was reported near the Canary islands beginning on Feb 15, after the volcanic activity has decreased over the past month. Experts concluded a new" activity phase" might have begun. Volcanodiscovery reoorted on February 16: El Hierro volcano (Canaries): increase in small earthquakes, almost no visible activity. The M 3.3 quake on February 18- 2012 was the largest since to month and took place not near El Hierro but offshore South- West of Tenerife, most likely on the subsea slope of Europe`s largest volcano- Mt. Teide

 
                       

HERAVY WEATHER>

                 

                        20120218 report by: .travelagentcentral  

Extreme Weather in Rome Damages Colosseum.

Severe snow and cold in Rome have taken a toll on one of its architectural wonders, the Colosseum.
The Colosseum had to shut its doors to tourists after bits of the massive structure crumbled and fell, AccuWeather is reporting....read more...

 

STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

                 
                          20120218 report by: africareview.com  

Cyclone Giovanna 'has affected 200,000 people' in Madagascar

The intense tropical cyclone named Giovanna that hit Madagascar on Monday and Tuesday has affected nearly 200,000 people, the government said. Around 40,000 people were displaced because of the resulting floods, according to the National Office for Disaster of National Preparedness (BNGRC). Tents have been installed on safe places to shelter the victims with humanitarian efforts underway. The category four tropical storm claimed 17 lives, injured 77 with four reported missing. ...read more...

 

NATURAL PHENOMENONS:

                  20120218 report by: .spaceweather.com/  

AURORAS OVER THE USA: A solar wind stream hit Earth's magnetic field during the waning hours of Saturday, Feb. 18th. Although the stream was expected, the bright auroras it produced were not. Northern Lights spilled across the Canadian border into US states such as WisconsinMichiganNebraskaNorth DakotaIowa, and Minnesota. ...read more...


 

SCIENCE/ TECH/ SPECIAL REPORTS>

                       
                          20120217 report by: .bbc.co.uk  

OZONE DEPLETION (wikipedia)

Canadian government is 'muzzling its scientists'

Speakers at a major science meeting being held in Canada said communication of vital research on health and environment issues is being suppressed. But one Canadian government department approached by the BBC said it held the communication of science as a priority. Prof Thomas Pedersen, a senior scientist at the University of Victoria, said he believed there was a political motive in some cases.

'Orwellian' approach Andrew Weaver, an environmental scientist at the University of Victoria in British Columbia, described the protocol as "Orwellian". Continue reading the main story “ The information is so tightly controlled that the public is left in the dark” Professor Andrew Weaver University of Victoria The protocol states: "Just as we have one department we should have one voice. Interviews sometimes present surprises to ministers and senior management. Media relations will work with staff on how best to deal with the call (an interview request from a journalist). This should include asking the programme expert to respond with approved lines." Professor Weaver said that information is so tightly controlled that the public is "left in the dark"./...read more...

 
MEDIA REPORTS                         20120218 report by: .bbc.co.uk  

"FRACKING!-( wikipedia)

Fracking contamination downplayed

The concern that hydraulic fracturing of shale formations to extract natural gas is contaminating groundwater is overstated, claims a new report. Researchers reviewing the available data in the US found nothing to suggest "fracking" had a unique problem. Rather, they suggest the contamination events that do arise are just as likely to afflict other types of oil and gas drilling operations....read more...

 
                               

SEKTION 2 :

CME ALERTS

 

 

SECTION 3 >>

 

EXPERIMENTAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST

 
Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:

  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  
    QUIET

18- FEBRUARY- 2012

 
  UNSETTLED

5.5- 6.5

latency

 
MINOR STORM

19- FEBRUARY- 2012

MAJOR STORM 5.5- 7.5 2-3
   

20- FEBRUARY- 2012

 
 

NOTICES:

5.5- 7.5 2-3  
   

A major portion of a minor and extreme low CMEs observed on FEB 14 and early 15 arrived late today on February 18

The impact strength is below 150 nT ( minor) . The event was ongoing at 24:00 UTC

IMPACT REGIONS> see below!  
DATE / TIME >           MOST PROBABLE EVENT REGIONS:  

ACTIVE REGION:

         

REGION C, D

N/S- AMERICA/ WEST PACIFIC COAST  
    VOLCANO/ STORM a.o. EARTHQUAKES  
LONGITUDE LATITUDE    
       
TYPE OF ACTIVITY

 

TODAY`S CME ALERTS:
SATELLITE > STEREO "Behind " STEREO "Ahead" SoHO/ LASCO C3     IMPACT BEGIN INT. CME NR.  
CLASSIFICATION           9:30 UTC 11/12  

 

          last prior CME ARRIVAL: EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS::  
CME AT:           20120213/14 10/12 MINOR-MEDIUM STORMS VOLCANO ACTIVITIES/ RISING TEMERATURES /RAPIDE SNOW MELTDOWNS WITH AVALANCHES AND FLOODINGS  
            155 nT MAX (nanoTesla)  
INTERNAL CME TRACKING NUMBER           APPROACHING CMEs EXPECTED ON: INT. NUMBER:  
            01

(20120215

2012

17- 18

11 (3)

/12

 
SATELLITE > STEREO "Behind " SDO /AIA( comp. SoHO/ LASCO C2 STAR MAP b: solen.info   NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION / last 24 hours:  

 

  geomagnetic storms (G)  

radio blackouts (R)

-- solar radiation storms(S) --  
                       

3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT

 
EXPLANATIONS>

Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.

Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./ Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME or CME cluster/  
HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST> INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions! STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER CME IMPACT (LATENCY!) on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES between the RED and the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Minor ones between the yellow and green regions  

REGIONS

REGION "A"

REGION "B"

REGION "C"

REGION "D"

REGION "E"

REGION "F"

   
IMPACT REPORT to CME Nr 10/12> EASTERN EURASIA, S-W ASIA. INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES CENTRAL PACIFIC: KAMCHATKA, JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NZ, PNG,. VANUATU,. FIJI WESTERN USA AND EASTERN PACIFIC/ CANADA/ ALASKA/ USA WEST COASTS EASTERN AND CENTRAL AMERICA/ CARIBIC/COLUMBIA,/PERU ENTIRE ATLANTIC/ ICELAND, SOUTHERN AMERICA - EASTERN COAST CENTRAL EUROPE/ AFRICA/ ASIA MINOR

related CME ARRIVAL:

 
TIME ZONES> UTC + 9 >> UTC + 4 UTC+/- 12 >>> UTC+ 9 UTC- 9 >>>UTC+/- 12 UTC- 4 >>> UTC -9 UTC >> UTC - 4 UTC+ 4 >>> UTC

11/12

 
LONGITUDES>

120° E- 60° E

180° - 120° E

120° W- 180° W

60° W- 120° W

00° W- 60° W

60° E- 00°

20120218

 
                                     

SECTION 4: CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS

CME TRACKING

        ARRIVAL:            

TRACKING NR.:

11/12

SOLAR EVENT DATA

CME EVENT

APPROACHING >

ACE

GOES

 

20120218

< IMPACT > CME ARRIVAL DATA (EARTH)  

LDE event with 2 minor and 2 stronger CME near centrral meridian

AR LONG LAT. DATE

TIME

EVENT CLASS.

SAT./ ARRIVAL TIMES >

20120218

9:30 UTC

20120218

9:30 UTC

 

IMPACT > 100 nT

MAIN IMPACT PEAK VALUE RELATIVE MASS* PRIMARY IMPACT REGIONS (red backcolored)  
11/12 (/1,2) CH 11417 03° E- 09° W 16° N FEB- 14 after 6:00 UTC LDE flare and extreme slow moving CME some time after 06:00 UTC   EASTERN EUROPE (appr 50° E)   10:00- 22.00 UTC 16- 18:30 UTC 140 nT 240 60° W- 100° WEST ATLANTIC, ICELANDEASTERN USA -MEXICO COLUMBIA PERU- CHILE FIJI,  
11/12 (3)>
CH 501
03° E- 09° W 16° N FEB 15 00. 57 UTC filament eruption DURATION > 9:30- 19 UTC? LONGITUDE            
 

CME is expected to arrive on: 20120218.

PEAKS: ongoing FIRST SOLAR WIND SHOCK           ATLANTIC EUROPE/AFRICA-WEST COAST  
            SECONDARY >  

SECTION 5

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

  solar data by: solen.info        
SOLAR PARAMETERS     SPECIAL SOLAR ACTIVITIES TOTAL:   NOAA/ CMEsTODAY`S ALERTS: COMMENTS REMARKS SOURCES  
SUNSPOT NUMBER

52

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

282-365

FLARE CLASS. C     :  
SOLAR FLUX

104

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 1.8

  M          
PLANETARY "A" INDEX

04

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

80- 140 nT

  X      
                       
ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS:     CORONAL MASS EJECTION: QUALITIES   CORONAL HOLES  
REMARKS: ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY

appr. EARTH FACING ON

SIGNIFICANT FLARES

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH-DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:   NUMBER LATITUDE: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING FADING (OUT)  
    LONGITUDE LATITUDE   CH 502 . 30- 60° S GROWING FEB- 16 FEB- 19-20    
 

11417

48°- 62° W

20° N

          CH 501 TRANSEQU. RECURR. FEB- 09 FEB- 15/16    
 

11418

69°- 83° W

23° S

          RECURR.= RECURRENT TRANSEQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL  
 

11419

07°- 21° W

28° N

               
 

11420

03° - 17°W

11° N

                         
 

11421

60° -46°E

18° N

                         
REMARKS >    

 

 

                         

YEAR:

2012

MONTH:

FEBRUARY

 

DAY:

17

             
                           

SECTION 1 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

                       
                                 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!
  EXTERNAL SOURCES  

EARTHQUAKES

                       

by:

EMSC NEIC  

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

M 5.5 - WESTERN XIZANG - 2012-02-17 15:44 UTC

will be available tomorrow!

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

will be updated each Thursday!              
EVENTS NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL LOCAL SURVEY GOOGLE EARTH WEBCAM

:

SOURCES:  
                     
MEDIA REPORTS                         20120217 report by: .volcanodiscovery.com  

.

Merapi volcano (Central Java): increased seismic activity could indicate the start of a new lava dome growth

Seismic activity has increased beneath Mount Merapi volcano in Central Java, Indonesia, in the last few days. The increase in so-called multiphase earthquakes is thought to indicate the beginning of the formation of a new lava dome. A volcanologist from the Selo observation post on the north side of the volcano is quoted "there is movement in the magma chamber in the form of a new lava dome formation. But we do not know the emission point because from Selo it is not visible". It is planned to check the situation at the summit in the near future. "The status of Merapi still active normal."  ...read more..

 

UNDER SPECIAL SURVEY:

                           
EL HIERRO/ CANARY ISLANDS FEB- 17- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O:

01

HIGHEST MEASURED MAGNITUDE: M 2.5 - CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION - 2012-02-17 13:16 UTC  

STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

                 

 

                        20120217
report by: globaldisasterwatch..com
 

TROPICAL STORMS - 
In the Indian Ocean - 
-Tropical cyclone 12s (Giovanna) was located approximately 465 nm south-southwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar.
-Tropical cyclone 13s was located approximately 685 nm southeast of Diego Garcia.

 

SCIENCE/ TECH/ SPECIAL REPORTS>

                       
MEDIA REPORTS                         20120217 report by: bbc.co.uk  



Stonehenge design was 'inspired by sounds'

Music could have been an inspiration for the design of Stonehenge, according to an American researcher. Steven Waller's intriguing idea is that ancient Britons could have based the layout of the great monument, in part, on the way they perceived sound. He has been able to show how two flutes played in a field can produce an auditory illusion that mimics in space the position of the henge's pillars. Mr Waller presented the idea at the AAAS meeting in Vancouver, Canada....read more...

 
                               

SEKTION 2 :

CME ALERTS

 

 

SECTION 3 >>

 

EXPERIMENTAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST

 
Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  
  QUIET

17- FEBRUARY- 2012

 
  UNSETTLED 5.5- 7.0 LATENCY  
MINOR STORM

18- FEBRUARY- 2012

MAJOR STORM 5.5- 7.0 2- 3
   

19- FEBRUARY- 2012

 
 

NOTICES:

5.5- > 7.5 2-3  
^The NASA- image above shows the current distribution of fires- as described " wild fires" on the planet- The INFRARED image likely it also shows volcanic activities below the surface, such as in the Afur region at the horn of Africa   the filament eruptions observed on Jan 14 likely were the cause of increase in geomag field density (=energy increase) observed yesterday. Its effects will likely be am increase in volcanic activities. Recent earthquake forecasts had to be updated ( latency) IMPACT REGIONS> see below!  
DATE / TIME >           MOST PROBABLE EVENT REGIONS:  

ACTIVE REGION:

         

REGION A, C, D

N/S- AMERICA/ WEST PACIFIC COAST  
    VOLCANO/ STORM a.o. EARTHQUAKES  
LONGITUDE LATITUDE    
       
TYPE OF ACTIVITY

 

TODAY`S CME ALERTS:
SATELLITE > STEREO "Behind " STEREO "Ahead" SoHO/ LASCO C3     IMPACT BEGIN INT. CME NR.  
CLASSIFICATION                

 

          last prior CME ARRIVAL: EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS::  
CME AT:           20120213/14 10/12    
            155 nT MAX (nanoTesla)  
INTERNAL CME TRACKING NUMBER           APPROACHING CMEs EXPECTED ON: INT. NUMBER:  
            01

20120215

2012

17- 19

11 (3)

/12

 
SATELLITE > STEREO "Behind " SDO /AIA( comp. SoHO/ LASCO C2 STAR MAP b: solen.info   NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION / last 24 hours:  

 

  geomagnetic storms (G)  

radio blackouts (R)

-- solar radiation storms(S) --  
                       

3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT

 
EXPLANATIONS>

Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.

Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./ Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME or CME cluster/  
HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST> INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions! STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER CME IMPACT (LATENCY!) on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES between the RED and the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Minor ones between the yellow and green regions  

REGIONS

REGION "A"

REGION "B"

REGION "C"

REGION "D"

REGION "E"

REGION "F"

   
IMPACT REPORT to CME Nr 10/12> EASTERN EURASIA, S-W ASIA. INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES CENTRAL PACIFIC: KAMCHATKA, JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NZ, PNG,. VANUATU,. FIJI WESTERN USA AND EASTERN PACIFIC/ CANADA/ ALASKA/ USA WEST COASTS EASTERN AND CENTRAL AMERICA/ CARIBIC/COLUMBIA,/PERU ENTIRE ATLANTIC/ SOUTHERN AMERICA - EASTERN COAST CENTRAL EUROPE/ AFRICA/ ASIA MINOR

related CME ARRIVAL:

 
TIME ZONES> UTC + 9 >> UTC + 4 UTC+/- 12 >>> UTC+ 9 UTC- 9 >>>UTC+/- 12 UTC- 4 >>> UTC -9 UTC >> UTC - 4 UTC+ 4 >>> UTC

10/12

 
LONGITUDES>

120° E- 60° E

180° - 120° E

120° W- 180° W

60° W- 120° W

00° W- 60° W

60° E- 00°

20120213

 
                                     
               

SECTION 5

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

  solar data by: solen.info        
SOLAR PARAMETERS     SPECIAL SOLAR ACTIVITIES TOTAL:   NOAA/ CMEsTODAY`S ALERTS: COMMENTS REMARKS SOURCES  
SUNSPOT NUMBER

53

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

292-360

FLARE CLASS. C     :  
SOLAR FLUX

103

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 1.7

  M          
PLANETARY "A" INDEX

02

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

62- 115 nT

  X      
                       
ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS:     CORONAL MASS EJECTION: QUALITIES   CORONAL HOLES  
REMARKS: ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY

appr. EARTH FACING ON

SIGNIFICANT FLARES

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH-DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:   NUMBER LATITUDE: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING FADING (OUT)  
    LONGITUDE LATITUDE   CH 502 . 30- 60° S GROWING FEB- 16 FEB- 19-20    
rotating out>

11416

86° - 100° W

18° S

          CH 501 TRANSEQU. RECURR. FEB- 09 FEB- 15/16    
 

11418

55°- 69° W

23° S

          RECURR.= RECURRENT TRANSEQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL  
 

11419

08°E- 06° W

28° N

FEB- 18         RECURR.= RECURRENT TRANSEQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL  
 

11420

11°E - 03°W

11° N

FEB-18                        
                                 
         

 

                   

 

 

                         

YEAR:

2012

MONTH:

FEBRUARY

 

DAY:

16

             
                           

SECTION 1 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

                       
                                 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!
  EXTERNAL SOURCES  

EARTHQUAKES

                       

by:

EMSC NEIC  

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

M 5.8 - MAURITIUS - REUNION REGION - 2012-02-16 02:20 UTC

will be available tomorrow!

 
                         

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

will be updated each Thursday!              
MEDIA REPORTS                         20120215 report by:    

8 February-14 February 2012

New Activity/Unrest: | Cleveland, Chuginadak Island | Galunggung, Western Java (Indonesia) | Ijen, Eastern Java (Indonesia) | Lokon-Empung, Sulawesi | Reventador, Ecuador 
Ongoing Activity: | Etna, Sicily (Italy) | Hierro, Canary Islands (Spain) | Karymsky, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) | Kilauea, Hawaii (USA) | Kizimen, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) | Popocatépetl, México |Puyehue-Cordón Caulle, Central Chile | Sakura-jima, Kyushu | Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia)

This page is updated on Wednesdays. Please see the GVP Home Page for news of the latest significant activity

 

UNDER SPECIAL SURVEY:

                           
CYCLADE ISLAND / GREECE                         EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ SANTORIN/ GREECE FEB- 16- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O:

07

HIGHEST MEASURED MAGNITUDE: M 3.3 - DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE - 2012-02-16 01:50 UTC  

STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

                 

 

                        20120216
report by: globaldisasterwatch..com
 

TROPICAL STORMS - 
In the Indian Ocean - 
Tropical cyclone 03s (Grant) was located approximately 150 nm northeast of Darwin, Australia

 
                               

SEKTION 2 :

CME ALERTS

 

 

SECTION 3 >>

 

EXPERIMENTAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST

 
Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD: SPACE FORCE REPORTS VIDEOS OR IMAGES   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  
some sat images might not be displayed correctly . Click on the link above instead, if one images should not be visible on this page   QUIET

16- FEBRUARY- 2012

 
          UNSETTLED 5.5- 7.0 LATENCY  

 

MINOR STORM

17- FEBRUARY- 2012

MAJOR STORM 5.5- > 7.5 2-3
   

18- FEBRUARY- 2012

 
  NOTICES: 5.5- 7.0 2  
     

The CME arrival on FEB 13 consisted out of two portions . The third CME part currently arriving on FEB- 14 seems to be the strongest.

(impact data: see below)

IMPACT REGIONS> see below!  
DATE / TIME >           MOST PROBABLE EVENT REGIONS:  

ACTIVE REGION:

         

REGION A, C, D

N/S- AMERICA/ WEST PACIFIC COAST  
    VOLCANO/ STORM a.o. EARTHQUAKES  
LONGITUDE LATITUDE    
       
TYPE OF ACTIVITY

 

TODAY`S CME ALERTS:
SATELLITE > STEREO "Behind " STEREO "Ahead" SoHO/ LASCO C3     IMPACT BEGIN INT. CME NR.  
CLASSIFICATION                

 

          last prior CME ARRIVAL: EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS::  
CME AT:           20120213/14 10/12    
            155 nT MAX (nanoTesla)  
INTERNAL CME TRACKING NUMBER           APPROACHING CMEs EXPECTED ON: INT. NUMBER:  
            01

( 3)

2012

16- 17

11 (3)

/12

 
SATELLITE > STEREO "Behind " SDO /AIA( comp. SoHO/ LASCO C2 STAR MAP b: solen.info   NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION / last 24 hours:  

 

  geomagnetic storms (G)  

radio blackouts (R)