-----------------------

I WISH EVERYONE HERE A HAPPY NEW YEAR! WELCOME IN 2012!

note: with elder machines the page will need some time to load!

alien- homepage.de- Earth quake statistics- -SUN SPOT ACTIVITY- 11- years solar cycle- last update: JANUARY - 31- 2012- -07:00 UTC copyright: reserved

background image: Aurora Borealis /COMMONS / wikipedia
open source earthquake forecast project created and provided by: alien-homepage.de-
ADDITIONAL PAGE FEATURES >
click here to reload right frame click here to remove right frame upframe:

 

 

2012/ 13 - MAXIMUM OF 11- YEAR SOLAR CYCLE

SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG

ARCHIVE
JANUARY- 2012

clock here for all other archives

NASA STEREO BEACON

alien-homepage.de / internal links:

TRANSLATORS
recommended: install Google toolbar with integrated translator!
PROJECT CENTRAL:

PAGES RELATED TO THIS SOLAR/TERRESTRIAL PROJECT>
ws
>HAVE YOU ANY COMMENT?
               
SOHO REALTIME current view on the Sun
SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG/ ARCHIVES:

(SUN SPOTS EARTHQUAKE AND VOLCANISM/ ARCHIVE- 2011:)click on the month symbols to get to the specific pages of 2011:

2012 >
                   
2011 >
2010 >
NOTE: I WILL APPLY A NEW ARCHIVE SYSTEM IN 2012. CLICK ON THE BUTTON (right) FOR THE NEW ARCHIVE DIRECTORY! >

 

click here to open panel with graphics for global incident map and Earthquake statistic January 2012
   

True and REAL TIME graphic solution, that makes obvious the coincidences of CME impacts and extraordinary natural phenomenons such as heavier Earthquakes, volcano eruptions, hurricanes. sudden ice meltdowns (floddings) and others

( click on the graphic top to enlarge it):

INTERNAL MAPS: click on the images or links below to get to my large regional maps, where you find all volcanoes around the world with descriptions , webcams and much more such as ancients sites! . Weekly regular activity updates, special earthquakes events with many functions

world volcano map 1.0

world volcano map version 2.0

Europe and Western Asia Africa and Arabic peninsula Central America and Mexico South America- Northern part South America- Southern part Central America and Mexico Northern America Kamchatka peninsula Japan region Indonesia and Philippines Australia and Southern Pacific

- incident graphic will be completed at the end of the month-

SPACECRAFTS:
SoHO
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
SDO /AIA
Solar Dynamics Observatory
STEREO
Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory
GOES
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites

ACE

<< internal Earthquake statistics- with Sun activity curves : green = SUNSPOT NUMBER, Pink= SOLAR FLUX, blue= PLANETARY A INDEX
Advanced Composition Explorer click here to see some of the paradox observations made during that solar cycle first possibly by observatory sopacecrafts: : CORONAL HOLES THOSE REAPPEAR DURING SEVERAL SOLAR ROTATION PERIODS ON THE SAME HELIOGRAPHIC POSITION

 

VIDEOS/ REPORTS OF THE WEEK- JANUARY_ 2012:

  DECEMBER - 27- 2011- JANUARY- 04- 2012
 
 

< A strong M 7.0 Earthquake occured near the coast of IZU island/ Japan on January- 01- 2012

M 7.0 - IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION - 2012-01-01 05:27 UTC

The epicenter was in a debth of 365 km (!!) and moren than 200 miles offshore the island of IZU, that just is a southern Part of Honshu.

The quake was felt even in the capital Tokyo, where skyscratchers began to swing, but no damageor causualities were reported from there. Allthough most media reported no damages at all , the video (left) indicates that the quake has caused at least some substantial damage on the nearby regions of the island

 
  JANUARY- 05- 12 - 2012
 
   
         
 

GLOBAL WARMING- or THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW ?

JANUARY 06- 2012: Extreme snowfalls have hit several regions of the Alaska peninsula. Reportedly 18 feet of snow ( 6 meters) fell alone in Cordova from January- 05- 06 - 2012, leaving the town just halfly looking out of the white wonder. The region, widely believed to be well affected by the " global warming" suddenly had a new record in snowfall in 30 years. But not only that: packed ice (possible drifting by from other regions in the Arctic sea?) is blocking the Behring street. Much to do for the boys of the US- National Guard, since several regions of Alaska have even declared the state of emergency. Video left: A US ship helps a Russian oil tanker to supply petrol to the town of Nome. (video right): the US National guard digs out Cordova ( click here for another privately made youtube video showing how neighbourhoods in Cordova dig themselves out of the snow )

 
 
JAN 14- 21- 2012
   
 

 

JAN-18/ 19- 2012: Major activities on the Earth facing side of the Sun unleashed two major Coronal mass ejections towards Earth (video)

more informations

 
 
 
 

 

EVENT OF THE WEEK >>

A major magnetic eruption/ eruptive prominence occured on Jan- 23 after 3:00 UTC in the active region 11402, while it was in a quite well Earth facing position at 23° West and 28° N. As the origin of the eruption was not from within the sun spot region but in some distance to the Sun surface (likely triggered by a discharge of magnetic activities/ tensions within the sun spot region ) the following bright CME spread in all directions.

NASA reported it as the largest solar storm since 7 years. I fact, this was the third eruptive prominence triggering an earthbound CME from this AR within one week, but with 185 nT on GOES also the largest.

   
         

 

Registerkarteclick here to open and close register panel of my

SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG- JANUARY/ 2012

/ eruptive proinence / eruptive proinence
1.1.2 LATEST REPORT ON SIGNIFICANT SOLAR ACTIVITIES AND RELATED EFFECTS ON EARTH :

JANUARY 2012

notices: This page is still under steady development. Therefore some changes will be made from time to time...

  visit my page " SUN CONTROL CENTER" with all links and informations on satellites, programs, technologies, explanations and glossaries of solar terms as used in this report! >>
SOURCES >

get more specific Sun data at: solen.info/

SunSpotWatch.com

USGS/ NEIC

EUROPE: EMSC

GLOBAL VOLCANISM PROGRAM (GVP)

*

o

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST: INTERNAL (alien-homepage)

please: always calculate with an error of at least one day in the Earthquake predictions

o

 

 

 

 

 

                             

YEAR:

2012

 

MONTH:

JANUARY

 

DAY:

31

       

SECTION 1 >

SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

solar data by: solen.info      

SECTION 2 >

EXPERIMENTAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST

 
LAST REPORT (previous day) SUNSPOTS: FLARES TODAY`S ALERTS: AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

309-381

             

JAN- 31- 2012

71

class >> C M X X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 2.5

  DUE TO CHANGES IN LAYOUT, THIS FORFECAST IS IN THE REPORT OF 2012- FEBRUARY 01  

 

SOLAR FLUX:

FLARES (total) 01     GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY:

35- 125 nT

           
 

116

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS: CORONAL MASS EJECTION: QUALITIES      
  PLANETARY A INDEX: ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latitude: appr. EARTH FACING ON

SIGNIFICANT FLARES

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH-DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:      
 

04

         
 

11408

63° - 77° W

08° N

                       
 

11410

10° E- 04 ° W

  FEB- 01              
 

11411

27° - 41° W

25° S                      
                         
 

11413

08° E- 04° W

10° N JAN- 31                  
                             
                       
                           
       

 

 

               
                         
         

 

 
             
                             
  CORONAL HOLES (CH) NUMBER LATITUDE: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING FADING (OUT)              
        CH 496 appr. 45°- 60° S CLOSED JAN- 20- 2011 JAN- 23- 25-2012 JAN- 30                
        CH 498 qppr. 30 ° N GROWING JAN- 26- 2011 JAN 30- FEB- 02-2012     NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION (oftenly issued one day after)  

NOTICES>

  geomagnetic storms (G)  

radio blackouts (R)

-- solar radiation storms(S)    

 

 

 

 

 

                             

YEAR:

2012

 

MONTH:

JANUARY

 

DAY:

31

       

SECTION 1 >

YESTERDAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

solar data by: solen.info      

SECTION 2 >

EXPERIMENTAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST

 
LAST REPORT (previous day) SUNSPOTS: FLARES TODAY`S ALERTS: AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

302-435

      ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)    

JAN- 30- 2012

76

class >> C M X X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 2.1

  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY:

2012- JANUARY- 31

   

 

SOLAR FLUX:

FLARES (total) 01     GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY:

75- 135 nT

  QUIET

5.5- >7.5

LATENCY(?)    
 

114

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS: CORONAL MASS EJECTION: QUALITIES UNSETTLED

2012- FEBRUARY- 02

 
  PLANETARY A INDEX: ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latitude: appr. EARTH FACING ON

SIGNIFICANT FLARES

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH-DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: MINOR STORM

5.5- >7.5

2-3

 

07

  MAJOR STORM

2012- FEBRUARY- 01

   
 

11408

50° - 64° W

08° N

              FLUCTUATIONS

5.5- 7.0

2-3

   
 

11410

23° - 09 ° E

  FEB- 01              
 

11411

14° - 28° W

25° S             LIKELY EVENT REGIONS > EUROPE JAPAN AUSTRALIA, PNG, NZ  
                    REMARKS: TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS:  
 

11413

23° - 09°E

10° N JAN- 31          

IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES:  
                         
                 

TODAY`S CME ALERTS:

   
                    IMPACT BEGIN INT. CME NR.    
       

 

 

               
                  LAST CME ARRIVAL:      
         

 

 
  JAN- 30-/ 17:00 UTC 08/12 VOLCANO ACTIVITIES MAJOR EARTHQUAKES MOST LIKELY EXPECTABLE ON:    
                    STRENGTH (nanoTesla        
  CORONAL HOLES (CH) NUMBER LATITUDE: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING FADING (OUT)   135 nT     JAN 26- FEB- 04    
        CH 496 appr. 45°- 60° S CLOSED JAN- 20- 2011 JAN- 23- 25-2012 JAN- 30  

APPROACHING CMEs>>

0

EXPECTED ON:

 

INT. NUMBER:

   
        CH 498 qppr. 30 ° N GROWING JAN- 26- 2011 JAN 30- FEB- 02-2012     NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION (oftenly issued one day after)  

NOTICES>

  geomagnetic storms (G)  

radio blackouts (R)

-- solar radiation storms(S)    
                a    

SECTION 3

CME EVENT SECTION:

                     
                           

3.3. GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF LATEST CME IMPACT/ REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE LARGEST CME EFFECTS

           
EXPLANATIONS>

red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME or CME cluster/ Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./ green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT. Red backcolor marks the peak impact regions. The relatively strongest seismic activities therefore most likely would occure on the tectonic boundaries between the red and the yellow backcolored regions.

 
IMPACT REPORT to CME Nr 07/12> EASTERN EURASIA, S-W ASIA. INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES CENTRAL PACIFIC: KAMCHATKA, JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NZ, PNG,. VANUATU,. FIJI WESTERN USA AND EASTERN PACIFIC/ CANADA/ ALASKA/ USA WEST COASTS EASTERN AND CENTRAL AMERICA/ CARIBIC/COLUMBIA,/PERU ENTIRE ATLANTIC/ SOUTHERN AMERICA - EASTERN COAST CENTRAL EUROPE/ AFRICA/ ASIA MINOR

related CME ARRIVAL:

 

LONGITUDES>

120° E- 60° E

180° - 120° E

120° W- 180° W

60° W- 120° W

00° W- 60° W

60° E- 00°

2012/01/30 (Nr. 08/12)  

TIME ZONES ( UTC- day)

UTC-8 /UTC-7/ UTC-6/ UTC-5

UTC+11/ UTC+10/ UTC+9 /UTC+ 8)

UTC-9/ UTC-10/ UTC-11/ UTC-12

UTC-5/ UTC- 6/ UTC- 7/ UTC- 8

UTC-1/ UTC-2/ UTC-3 /UTC-4

UTC-3/ UTC-2/ UTC-1/ GMT

   
                             

3.4. TODAY`s CME EVENTS: :

    OBSERVED TODAY>                        
              Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD  
               
STEREO "Behind " STEREO "Ahead" SoHO/ LASCO C3 SoHO/ LASCO C2 SDO /AIA 171 / HMI (comp).   SDO /AIA(comp.          
                           

SECTION 4 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

                       

TODAY`s EVENTS

remarks: DIFFERENTLY TO MEDIA REPORTS, ALL REPORTS HERE ARE ASSOCIATED TO THEIR REAL EVENT DATE! SCROLL DOWN FOR ALL PREVIOUS DAYS REPORTS! TODAY`S REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER / TOMORROW!  
 
 

EARTHQUAKES

   

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

Earthquake data as published by NEIC or EMSC  

EARTHQUAKES ABOVE M 6.0

NAME of REGION:

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: MAGNITUDE DEPTH CATHEGORY FIND WITH GOOGLE EARTH:     EXTERNAL SOURCES ( wikipedia a.o.)  
(Europe:M 5:0 and higher)                  
 

Scientists: Haiti, DR may facing big quake period

Haiti and the neighbouring Dominican Republic could be in for a period of periodic powerful earthquakes, according to a scientific study released Thursday. The study says Haiti's 7.0-magnitude earthquake two years ago is likely to be the first of several quakes of a similarly powerful magnitude. The Jan. 12, 2010, earthquake caused widespread damage in the Haitian capital and surrounding cities. Officials say the disaster killed 314,000 people and toppled thousands of crudely built homes. "The 2010 Haiti earthquake may mark the beginning of a new cycle of large earthquakes on the Enriquillo fault system after 240 years of seismic quiescence," lead author William Bakun of the US Geological Survey wrote. "The entire Enriquillo fault system appears to be seismically active; Haiti and the Dominican Republic should prepare for future devastating earthquakes."...read more...

3news.co.nz/20120129  
CYCLADE ISLAND / GREECE    
CONTINUING EARTHQUAKE SWARM SOUTH OF SANTORIN/ GREECE JAN- 30- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O:

05

HIGHEST MEASURED MAGNITUDE: M 4.1 - DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE - 2012-01-30 00:23 UTC  
 

Santorini volcano (Greece) strong seismic swarm continues, scientist speak out, finally

Today the wall of silence seems to be falling as a major Sunday newspaper has exclusive interviews with a number of Greek seismologists and geologists on the matter and some information is now public.  1. Inflation  From 1993 until 2010 there was deflation in the caldera of about 1cm/year, since the beginning of 2011 that has changed to inflation centered at a radius of 15 km on the north part of the caldera, rapid episodes of inflation have been recorded at intervals that coincide with bursts in seismic activity. Since August the intensity of the phenomenon warranted a rise to alert level 4 (red), where it has remained ever since. ...read more...

.volcanodiscovery.com/ 20120129  
       
     
SPECIAL SURVEY: EL HIERRO/ CANARY ISLANDS JAN- 29- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O: none HIGHEST MEASURED MAGNITUDE:    
CANARY ISLANDS      

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

                       

EVENTS

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL LOCAL SURVEY GOOGLE EARTH WEBCAM

 

  SOURCES:  
  HIERRO 27°44'0"N/ 18°2'0"W JAN 25- 31- 2012   IGN (Spain) HIERRO   emergencias (Cabildo El Hierro)  
 

Instituto Geográfico Nacional (IGN) reported that during 25-31 January the submarine eruption continued S of El Hierro Island. Mean tremor amplitude maintained very low values during this report period. Frequent and persistent emissions of large steaming lava fragments were observed on the sea surface, some of them about 3 m wide.

Seventy-eight seismic events were registered during this period, most of them located in the central part of the island, with offshore events extending primary to the S. Depths of the hypocenters varied between 10 and 23 km, and magnitudes between 0.4 and 2.8. Analyses of GPS deformation showed stability both in vertical and horizontal components.

   

DATA

CLEVELAND 52°49'30"N/ 169°56'38"W JAN- 31- 2012   AVO CLEVELAND      
  AVO reported that on 31 January the Volcano Alert Level for Cleveland was raised to Watch and the Aviation Color Code was raised to Orange due to the formation of a new 40-m-wide lava dome in the summit crater that was observed in satellite imagery on 30 January. The lava dome that formed during the past fall and winter was removed by explosive activity on 25 and 29 December 2011. No current seismic information was available because Cleveland does not have a real-time seismic network.    

SEVERE WEATHERS/ CLIMATE >

                     

SPECIAL EVENTS/ DATA >

DATE AND UTC- TIME:

NAME / EVENT/ REGION

LOCATION (long/lat) STRENGTH DIRECTION CATHEGORY

 

  SOURCES:  

DATA >

                   
 

Deaths in Ukraine and Poland in freezing Europe weather

At least 30 people have died in Ukraine and 10 in Poland after heavy snow fall and a drop in temperatures across much of central and eastern Europe. Three deaths were also reported in Serbia and one in Bulgaria. Ukrainian health officials said more than 600 people had sought treatment for frostbite and hypothermia in just three days. And over that time, nearly 24,000 people sought refuge in some 1,590 shelters, the officials say. Temperatures have plunged to -16C (3F) during the day and -23C (-10F) at night./...read more...

.bbc.co.uk/20120131  

STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

             

SPECIAL EVENTS

REGION

EVENT TYPE

DATE AND UTC- TIME: STRENGTH DIRECTION CATHEGORY

 

  SOURCES:  

DATA>

                 
           
 

Tropical Cyclone Iggy triggered Indonesian tornadoes - An area of developing low pressure, which eventually developed into Tropical Cyclone Iggy, triggered tornadoes across the islands of Java and Bali in Indonesia. The tornadoes damaged nearly 1000 houses.

Tropical cyclone Iggy is forecast to strike Australia as a tropical storm at about 08:00 GMT on February 3.

Flood-hit Fiji braces for cyclone - Fiji is bracing for a cyclone which could reignite the country's flood crisis, as the clean-up from last week's flooding continues. A tropical depression is heading towards Fiji and meteorologists say it could become a cyclone.

globaldisasterwatch./20120125  

TODAY

( Jan- 31- 2012 >

TROPICAL STORMS - 

In the Indian Ocean - 
Tropical cyclone 09s (Iggy) was located approximately 260 nm west of Learmonth, Australia. TROPICAL STORMS - 

globaldisasterwatch./20120125  

 

ATLANTIC BASIN >

No active storms at this time.
No potential storms at this time

PACIFIC BASIN>

No active storms at this time.
No potential storms at this time.

  real time sat images : stormpulse.com  

DISASTERS

                       

DATA >

               
       

SPECIAL REPORTS:

                   

 
SOLAR ACTIVITY

Forget global warming - it's Cycle 25 we need to worry about 

(and if NASA scientists are right the Thames will be freezing over again) Met Office releases new figures which show no warming in 15 years

We are now at what should be the peak of what scientists call ‘Cycle 24’ – which is why last week’s solar storm resulted in sightings of the aurora borealis further south than usual. But sunspot numbers are running at less than half those seen during cycle peaks in the 20th Century.Analysis by experts at NASA and the University of Arizona – derived from magnetic-field measurements 120,000 miles beneath the sun’s surface – suggest that Cycle 25, whose peak is due in 2022, will be a great deal weaker still....read more...



dailymail.co.uk(20120129  

 

The large eruptions during the last week of January 2012 have again exhausted our Sun for the moment . The Sun needs a short rest. The total eruptive activity itself goes up an down within a courve and has periods of 1 week or two. At the moment ,the Sun spot number and solar flux have dropped significantly during the last week and are now at the lowest level since months. ON Jan- 29, sun spot number was below 40 , but began slowly already to raise again the next day. At the same time, temperature dropped worldwide

Nevertheless, the energetic impacts of the last CMEs were rather large and are still effective. The mainly affected tectonic plates (Europe, the Atlantic until the Gulf of Mexico- highest impact region of all 3 CMEs was the Central Atlantic) will need a good while to cool down again- as I believe. Thatlarge energetic impact may still create one or two major - still missing- Earthquakes until February 04 or so , when these process of tectonic plates contracting and cooling down again will really begin.

internal

 

 

 

 

 

 

                             

YEAR:

2012

 

MONTH:

JANUARY

 

DAY:

30

       

SECTION 1 >

YESTERDAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

solar data by: solen.info      

SECTION 2 >

EXPERIMENTAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST

 
LAST REPORT (previous day) SUNSPOTS: FLARES TODAY`S ALERTS: AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s) 355-447       ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)    

JAN- 29- 2012

74

class >> C M X X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 2.7

  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY:

2012- JANUARY- 30

   

 

SOLAR FLUX:

FLARES (total)       GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY:

49- 105 nT

  QUIET

5.5- >7.5

LATENCY    
 

109

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS: CORONAL MASS EJECTION: QUALITIES UNSETTLED

2012- JANUARY- 31

 
  PLANETARY A INDEX: ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latitude: appr. EARTH FACING ON

SIGNIFICANT FLARES

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH-DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: MINOR STORM

5.5- >7.5

CRITICAL
 

06

  MAJOR STORM

2012- FEBRUARY- 01

   
 

11408

36° - 50° W

08° N

              FLUCTUATIONS

5.5- 7.0

2-3

   
 

11410

36° - 22 ° E

  FEB- 01              
 

11411

03 ° - 17° W

25° S JAN- 31           LIKELY EVENT REGIONS > EUROPE JAPAN AUSTRALIA, PNG, NZ  
newly emerged >

11412

41° - 55 ° W

13° S FEB- 01           REMARKS: TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS:  
newly emerged >

11413

36° - 22°E

10° N JAN- 31          

IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES:  
                         
                   

TODAY`S CME ALERTS:

   
                    IMPACT BEGIN INT. CME NR.    
       

 

 

        JAN- 30-/ 17:00 UTC 08/12    
                  last prior CME ARRIVAL:      
         

 

 
  JAN- 24/ 14:00 UTC 07/12 VOLCANO ACTIVITIES MAJOR EARTHQUAKES MOST LIKELY EXPECTABLE ON:    
                    STRENGTH (nanoTesla        
  CORONAL HOLES (CH) NUMBER LATITUDE: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING FADING (OUT)   185 nT     JAN 26- FEB- 04  
        CH 496 appr. 45°- 60° S RECURRENT JAN- 20- 2011 JAN- 23- 25-2012    

APPROACHING CMEs>>

0

EXPECTED ON:

 

INT. NUMBER:

5/12

 
        CH 498 qppr. 30 ° N GROWING JAN- 26- 2011 JAN 30- FEB- 02-2012     NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION (oftenly issued one day after)  

NOTICES>

  geomagnetic storms (G)  

radio blackouts (R)

-- solar radiation storms(S)    
                         

SECTION 3

CME EVENT SECTION:

                     
                           

3.3. GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF LATEST CME IMPACT/ REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE LARGEST CME EFFECTS

           
EXPLANATIONS>

red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME or CME cluster/ Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./ green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT. Red backcolor marks the peak impact regions. The relatively strongest seismic activities therefore most likely would occure on the tectonic boundaries between the red and the yellow backcolored regions.

 
IMPACT REPORT to CME Nr 07/12> EASTERN EURASIA, S-W ASIA. INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES CENTRAL PACIFIC: KAMCHATKA, JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NZ, PNG,. VANUATU,. FIJI WESTERN USA AND EASTERN PACIFIC/ CANADA/ ALASKA/ USA WEST COASTS EASTERN AND CENTRAL AMERICA/ CARIBIC/COLUMBIA,/PERU ENTIRE ATLANTIC/ SOUTHERN AMERICA - EASTERN COAST CENTRAL EUROPE/ AFRICA/ ASIA MINOR

related CME ARRIVAL:

 

LONGITUDES>

120° E- 60° E

180° - 120° E

120° W- 180° W

60° W- 120° W

00° W- 60° W

60° E- 00°

2012/01/30 (Nr. 08/12)  

TIME ZONES ( UTC- day)

UTC-8 /UTC-7/ UTC-6/ UTC-5

UTC+11/ UTC+10/ UTC+9 /UTC+ 8)

UTC-9/ UTC-10/ UTC-11/ UTC-12

UTC-5/ UTC- 6/ UTC- 7/ UTC- 8

UTC-1/ UTC-2/ UTC-3 /UTC-4

UTC-3/ UTC-2/ UTC-1/ GMT

   
                             

3.2. TODAY`s CME ARRIVALS (internal CME tracking)

                         

 

CME DATA (SOLAR) DURATION ARRIVAL:   CME ARRIVAL DATA (EARTH)  

INTERNAL CME tracking Nr. 08/12

AR LONG LAT. DATE

*CME ERUPTION TYPE and TIME

EVENT CLASS

(X-RAY BURST)

REMARKS

ACE

BEGIN/ END

GOES

(FIRST IMPACT

 

time/ longitudes/ with

values above 100 nT

MAIN IMPACT PEAK VALUE *internal relative mass value IMPACT REGIONS ( geographic) intern. Nr  
REMARKS

11402

88° -102° W

28° N

JAN- 27- 2012

JAN- 27/ at 18:37 UTC

X1.7/1F VIRGO JAN 30/ 15:30 JAN- 30after 17:00 UTC   17:00 UTC- 24:00 UTC 75°- 150° W 135 nT

122

CENTRAL AMERICA/ ALASKA/ HAWAII/ FIJI/ VANUATU,

08/12  
             END> JAN- 31( 02- 05 UTC   UTC TIME ZONES> UTC 05- UTC- 10 SEVERENESS LOW- MEDIUM SOUTH AMERICA/PACIFIC COAST  

3.4. TODAY`s CME EVENTS: :

    OBSERVED TODAY>                        
              Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD  
               
STEREO "Behind " STEREO "Ahead" SoHO/ LASCO C3 SoHO/ LASCO C2 SDO /AIA 171 / HMI (comp).   SDO /AIA(comp.          
                           

SECTION 4 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

                       

TODAY`s EVENTS

remarks: DIFFERENTLY TO MEDIA REPORTS, ALL REPORTS HERE ARE ASSOCIATED TO THEIR REAL EVENT DATE! SCROLL DOWN FOR ALL PREVIOUS DAYS REPORTS! TODAY`S REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER / TOMORROW!  
 
 

EARTHQUAKES

   

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

Earthquake data as published by NEIC or EMSC  

EARTHQUAKES ABOVE M 6.0

NAME of REGION:

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: MAGNITUDE DEPTH CATHEGORY FIND WITH GOOGLE EARTH:     EXTERNAL SOURCES ( wikipedia a.o.)  
  NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU 14.15 S ; 75.73 W 2012-01-30 05:11 UTC M 6.3 36 km no report yet   M 4.7 - DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE - 2012-01-29 09:55 UTC  
(Europe:M 5:0 and higher)                  
 

More than 100 reported injured as magnitude-6.3 quake strikes central Peru

LIMA, Peru — Peruvian authorities say 112 people have been treated for injuries after a magnitude-6.3 earthquake struck the country’s central coast. They say none of the injuries are life-threatening. Regional civil defense director Cesar Chonate says a boy was hospitalized with a fractured hip but most injuries were minor and included heart palpitations as people fled homes in panic....read more...

washingtonpost.com/20120130  
CYCLADE ISLAND / GREECE    
CONTINUING EARTHQUAKE SWARM SOUTH OF SANTORIN/ GREECE JAN- 29- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O:

21

HIGHEST MEASURED MAGNITUDE: M 4.7 - DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE - 2012-01-29 09:55 UTC  
     
SPECIAL SURVEY: EL HIERRO/ CANARY ISLANDS JAN- 29- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O: none HIGHEST MEASURED MAGNITUDE:    
CANARY ISLANDS      

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

                       

EVENTS

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL LOCAL SURVEY GOOGLE EARTH WEBCAM

 

  SOURCES:  
  PAGAN 18°8'0"N/ 145°48'0"E JAN- 30- 2012   USGS PAGAN     MTS- SAT GVP  

DATA

DUKONO 1°41'0"N/ 127°53'0"E JAN- 30- 2012   VAAC DUKONO --   GVP  

Low-level gas-and-steam plumes from Pagan were observed in satellite imagery during 20-27 January. Based on information from the Honolulu MWO, satellite imagery, and a pilot observation, the Washington VAAC reported gas emissions and a possible light-brown ash plume drifting E on 30 January. The Aviation Color Code remained at Yellow and the Volcano Alert Level remained at Advisory.

GVP  

Based on analyses of satellite imagery, the Darwin VAAC reported that during 30-31 January ash plumes from Dukono rose to an altitude of 2.7 km (9,000 ft) a.s.l. and drifted 220 km SW.

GVP  

Glacial Outburst Flood from Grímsvötn Volcano

It is believed that a glacial outburst flood (jökulhlaup) occurred in the Grímsvötn volcano in Vatnajökull yesterday as the river Gígjukvísl was dark in color in the afternoon and commuters smelled sulfur in the air by the bridge across the Ring Road in south Iceland. However, according to Morgunblaðið, the glacial outburst is not considered to be a matter of concern. ...read more...

.icelandreview.com/ 20120130  

STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

             
 

Tropical cyclone weakens, veers away from W.Australia coast

Jan 30 (Reuters) - A tropical cyclone which closed some offshore Western Australia oil fields and threatened the region's rich iron ore mining region has weakened and is expected to head away from the coast, Australia's weather office said on Monday./...read more

.reuters.comm/20120130  

TODAY

( Jan- 30- 2012 >

TROPICAL STORMS - 

In the Indian Ocean - 
Tropical cyclone 09s (Iggy) was located approximately 240 nm northwest of Learmonth, Australia. 

globaldisasterwatch./20120125  

 

ATLANTIC BASIN >

No active storms at this time.
No potential storms at this time

PACIFIC BASIN>

No active storms at this time.
No potential storms at this time.

  real time sat images : stormpulse.com  

SPECIAL REPORTS:

                   

 

SOLAR ACTIVITY

Focus on solar storms takes priority at NASA’s Goddard Space Weather Center

A string of massive solar storms have unleashed their fury on the Earth in the last 48 hours, just the first set of strong solar storms expected to hit our planet in the coming months. NASA scientists report that the most solar flare — the strongest one to date this year — erupted Friday from the same active region of the sun that triggered a raging solar tempest earlier this week.NASA’s Goddard Space Weather Center said the latest coronal mass ejection (CME) was moving at almost 1,553 miles per second, warning that it could cause a number of disruptions.Initial movies from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) look as though there was an eruption and coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the event, and NOAA’s GOES satellite also detected a solar energetic particle (SEP) event a half hour after the flare peak,” the space agency said in a statement. “How these CMEs and SEPs form and evolve, as well as their association with the flare event itself will be studied in the coming hours and days as more data and movies from NASA’s SDO, STEREO and SOHO instruments become available:...read more....



.thestatecolumn.com/20120129  

 

 

 

 

 

                             

YEAR:

2012

 

MONTH:

JANUARY

 

DAY:

29

       

SECTION 1 >

YESTERDAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

solar data by: solen.info      

SECTION 2 >

EXPERIMENTAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST

 
LAST REPORT (previous day) SUNSPOTS: FLARES TODAY`S ALERTS: AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

377-481

      ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)    

JAN- 28- 2012

34

class >> C M X X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 5.7

  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY:

2012- JANUARY- 29

   

 

SOLAR FLUX:

FLARES (total)

02

 

 

GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY:

60- 112 nT

  QUIET

5.5- >7.5

2-3 (LATENCY!)

   
 

114

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS: CORONAL MASS EJECTION: QUALITIES UNSETTLED

2012- JANUARY- 30

 
  PLANETARY A INDEX: ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latitude: appr. EARTH FACING ON

SIGNIFICANT FLARES

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH-DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: MINOR STORM

5.5- >7.5

2-3 (LATENCY!)

 

04

  MAJOR STORM

2012- JANUARY- 31

   
                      FLUCTUATIONS

5.5- >7.5

2-3 (LATENCY!)

   
 

11408

23° - 37° W

08° N

JAN- 27

             
 

11410

49° - 35 ° E

  FEB- 01           LIKELY EVENT REGIONS > EUROPE AFRICA CNTR AMERICA  
 

11411

08 E° - 10 ° W

25° S JAN- 31          

IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES:  
                         
                   

TODAY`S CME ALERTS:

   
                    IMPACT BEGIN INT. CME NR.    
       

 

 

               
                  last prior CME ARRIVAL:      
         

 

 
  JAN- 24/ 14:00 UTC 07/12 VOLCANO ACTIVITIES MAJOR EARTHQUAKES MOST LIKELY EXPECTABLE ON:    
                    STRENGTH (nanoTesla        
  CORONAL HOLES (CH) NUMBER LATITUDE: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING FADING (OUT)   185 nT     JAN 26- FEB- 04  
        CH 496 appr. 45°- 60° S RECURRENT JAN- 20- 2011 JAN- 23- 25-2012    

APPROACHING CMEs>>

1 ?

EXPECTED ON:

JAN- 30

INT. NUMBER:

08//12  
        CH 497 ass. to CH 496 CLOSED JAN- 21- 2011 JAN 22- 24-2012 JAN 26   NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION (oftenly issued one day after)  

NOTICES>

  geomagnetic storms (G)  

radio blackouts (R)

-- solar radiation storms(S)    
                a    

SECTION 3

CME EVENT SECTION:

                     
                           

3.3. GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF LATEST CME IMPACT/ REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE LARGEST CME EFFECTS

           
EXPLANATIONS>

red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME or CME cluster/ Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./ green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT. Red backcolor marks the peak impact regions. The relatively strongest seismic activities therefore most likely would occure on the tectonic boundaries between the red and the yellow backcolored regions.

 
IMPACT REPORT to CME Nr 07/12> EURASIA, S-W ASIA. INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES CENTRAL PACIFIC: KAMCHATKA, JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NZ, PNG,. VANUATU,. FIJI WESTERN USA AND EASTERN PACIFIC/ CANADA/ ALASKA/ USA WEST COASTS EASTERN AND CENTRAL AMERICA/ CARIBIC/COLUMBIA,/PERU ENTIRE ATLANTIC/ SOUTHERN AMERICA - EASTERN COAST CENTRAL EUROPE/ AFRICA/ ASIA MINOR

related CME ARRIVAL:

06/12

LONGITUDES>

120° E- 60° E

180° - 120° E

120° W- 180° W

60° W- 120° W

00° W- 60° W

60° E- 00°

2012/01/24 (Nr. 07/12)  

TIME ZONES ( UTC- day)

UTC-8 /UTC-7/ UTC-6/ UTC-5

UTC+11/ UTC+10/ UTC+9 /UTC+ 8)

UTC-9/ UTC-10/ UTC-11/ UTC-12

UTC-5/ UTC- 6/ UTC- 7/ UTC- 8

UTC-1/ UTC-2/ UTC-3 /UTC-4

UTC-3/ UTC-2/ UTC-1/ GMT

   
                             

3.4. TODAY`s CME EVENTS: :

    OBSERVED TODAY>                        
                           

SECTION 4 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

                       

TODAY`s EVENTS

remarks: DIFFERENTLY TO MEDIA REPORTS, ALL REPORTS HERE ARE ASSOCIATED TO THEIR REAL EVENT DATE! SCROLL DOWN FOR ALL PREVIOUS DAYS REPORTS! TODAY`S REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER / TOMORROW!  
 
 

EARTHQUAKES

   

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

Earthquake data as published by NEIC or EMSC  

EARTHQUAKES ABOVE M 6.0

NAME of REGION:

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: MAGNITUDE DEPTH CATHEGORY FIND WITH GOOGLE EARTH:     EXTERNAL SOURCES ( wikipedia a.o.)  
                   
(Europe:M 5:0 and higher)                  
CYCLADE ISLAND / GREECE    
CONTINUING EARTHQUAKE SWARM SOUTH OF SANTORIN/ GREECE JAN- 28- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O: 17 HIGHEST MEASURED MAGNITUDE: M 4.7 - DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE - 2012-01-29 09:55 UTC  
       
     
SPECIAL SURVEY: EL HIERRO/ CANARY ISLANDS JAN- 26- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O: none HIGHEST MEASURED MAGNITUDE:    
CANARY ISLANDS      

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

                       

EVENTS

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL LOCAL SURVEY GOOGLE EARTH WEBCAM

 

  SOURCES:  

DATA

                   
       

STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

             
  TROPICAL STORMS - globaldisasterwatch./20120125  
 

111112E “Funso” and “Dando”: Preliminary assessment indicates 26 killed and over 120,000 affected

According to CENOE’s director, Dulce Chilundo, 15 deaths were reported in the central province of Zambezia, all associated with the passage of cyclone “Funso”, while 11 occurred when Tropical storm “Dando” hit the southern region of Mozambique. Some died when their houses collapsed on top of them, while others drowned or died from electrocution. Both storms were accompanied by torrential rains and high winds, with rivers bursting their banks, causing severe damages on important infrastructures....read more...

.thezimbabwean.co.uk/  
TODAY ( Jan- 25- 2012 >

 

Tropical Cyclone Iggy Leaves 16 Dead and Trail of  Destruction

At least 16 people were confirmed killed and more than 2,300 houses damaged in torrential rains and strong winds that lashed much of Indonesia over the past few days.  Sutopo Purwo Nugroho, a spokesman for the National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB), said on Sunday that most of those killed were struck by trees felled by severe winds. ...read more...

thejakartaglobe.com/20120130  

 

ATLANTIC BASIN >

No active storms at this time.
No potential storms at this time

PACIFIC BASIN>

No active storms at this time.
No potential storms at this time.

  real time sat images : stormpulse.com  

SPECIAL REPORTS:

                   

 

DATA >

               

SOLAR

An C, M or X class event can be a flare a filament eruption or whatever- classifications are generally definitons made by the level of x- ray emission. The X event observed on January 28, while AR 11401/02 was already almost over the Western limb gave an interesting insight in that type of event. SDO shows the entire event. Before the CME becomes visible above the surface, a large eruption( comparable to a Earth quake but rather,as if a huge hydrogen bomb would explode rumbling and flashes from one moment to the other through the entire area of aAR 11401 and AR 11402 , heaving up the entire area until a part of tha material i thrown out as CME . Each time after these newly oberserved types of eruptions lots pf magnetic loops one behind the other formed out immidiately after the main eruptions ( thuis the term "eruptive prominence") The area of both combined AR that was rocked by that event easily has the size of 30 longitudes and latitudues on the Sun surface which is a multipe of the Earth surface anyway. I planned to embed NASA or solar watcher videos to the upcoming next major solar events rather than to make own ones. But I have made a record of that exlosive event I will work into my next youtube video at any time, that rather will be a special report in form of major events observed in 2011.At the moment I have no time to do so.

( I have made no tracking number or report for these ) This has significantly heated up the tectonic plates in an around the Atlantic and will ( with a latency of estimated 8 day in maximum) create major seismic friction ( means: at least one major Earthquake) when these plates will cool down and contract again!. There was an expected strong increase in the number of mainly magmatic quakes as expected soon after the latest CME impacted on Jan 24., those (allthough they reached magnitudes above 5.3 yet) dont cause major movements on the surface or noticable destructions. The largest global increase in these ativities was as also expected especially in central Europeand the mediterranean until the Atlantic (the main impact regions of all three CMes) with secondary effects into to the aneighbored tectonic plates! , But there is still a major Earthquake to be expected that may likely happen during the next days ( I have corrected today my latency estimation upwards to maximal 10 days due to the high impact energy of three CMEs + several weak ones) This quake might even accumulate/release to a magnitude of M 8.0 ( equals M 7.0 within the massive Eurasian plate).

--

Further explanations ( not corrected draft)

s I describe in some of my essays and remarks, it is easy to predict that a major Earthquake follows to each significant Coronal Mass Ejection ( CME )that hits the Earth, as this is - and due to my 2 year complete statistics including reviews in older events- just the case in 100 % after each CME impact! As I also remarked, in 2011 we have again an signifiant exponential increase in these Sun activities until the maxium of the 11 years c solar cycle will be reached appr in March 2013. These events are just usual, but NASA wants to proves now, wethee there is an increase of socalled " xray events "comparing these x ray values (xray data measure all flares, CMEs and other eruptive events on the Sun ) between this solar cycle and the last one 11 years back in 2001.

However- again threemajor CMEs again have hit the Earth one after another between January 20 and 24 . Allthough the most of particles in this Sun Plasma ( a extreme hot and ergetic soup out of protons neutrons, electrons und Ions) are rejected by the geomagnetic field , the cinetic erenergy ( electromagnetic ernergies also called radiation) mainly penetrates the atmosphere and is just tranformed, slown down into slower frequencies.This might not stand in each school bok jet, but is meanwhile widely presumed, since larger CMEs have obvious coincident effects those made further research necessary on that.

However- these three CMEs brought alot of energy to the Earth and this energy heats up the tectonic plates whereever they impact, as more of such CME sunplasma hits the Earth. Its just like in a stove: As higher e we heat something up as longer it takes for our soup to coll down again.This of course is also and due to 100 % of reseached cases the reason , why volcanic activities increase soon after the CME impacts ( sometimes just 1 hour later) , while Earthquake happen later. Earthquakes are frictions between l huge masses of stone on the Earthcrust, those occure when these masses are brought into movement such as by the usual continental drift. Just logically- Warm stone expands and gets more and more weak wehen heated up. Warm soft rock creates less friction than cold and harder one , THis is why Earthquake happen as the tectonic plates heat up and expand after the CME impacted ( no friction) but occure later if that rocks begins significantly to cool down and contract again!

Okay- simply explained . Its not possible this what I call "latency"- the time (and amount )between tectonic plates heated up until they cool down again . Of course none of the scientists building the satellites those observe no Sun and Earth from all ancles who jet only researched solar spots and some other parameters and events had mentioned at this time to develop and attach an instrument to this solar observers that can measure exactly the amount of Sun Plase that hits the earth after a CME has impacted. What is available are interplanetary magnetic data, but not all of that will arrive on earth . GOES data however give a good idea about that but have fluctuations in their measurement as they orbit geostationary with the Earth and not synchronoulsy with the Earth around the Sun)

So most of the conclusions those can be drawn out of these geomagnetic data from the GOES satellites always give a muster that allows to compare impacts with one another/ relativity results but no total numbers those could be expressed in or translated into in kilogramm or tons.That makes estimations when exactly Earthquake would occure difficult in all cases of multiple CME events or CME clusters, whereby the latency time can vary be form 4- 6 but jet never exceeded maximum 8 days yet (so far as registered and archived)When the energy of that CME is as also the usual sunlight has radiated back into cold space ( matter can just chamge its "potential energy" by limited expansion, comparable as if we carry a stone higher onto a mountain with a limited height , what creates gives such potential energy to this stone, allthough nothing is loaded in within . We realize the increase in energy if we let the stone roll again back to the place were we started.)

 

 

 

 

 

 

                             

YEAR:

2012

 

MONTH:

JANUARY

 

DAY:

28

       

SECTION 1 >

YESTERDAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

solar data by: solen.info      

SECTION 2 >

EXPERIMENTAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST

 
LAST REPORT (previous day) SUNSPOTS: FLARES TODAY`S ALERTS: AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

380-555

      ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)    

JAN- 27- 2012

39

class >> C M X X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 5.2

  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY:

2012- JANUARY- 28

   

 

SOLAR FLUX:

FLARES (total)

09

 

1

GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY:

40- 112 nT

  QUIET

5.5- >7.5

2-3 (LATENCY!)

   
 

128

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS: CORONAL MASS EJECTION: QUALITIES UNSETTLED

2012- JANUARY- 29

 
  PLANETARY A INDEX: ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latitude: appr. EARTH FACING ON

SIGNIFICANT FLARES

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH-DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: MINOR STORM

5.5- >7.5

2-3 (LATENCY!)

 

07

  MAJOR STORM

2012- JANUARY- 30

   
                      FLUCTUATIONS

5.5- >7.5

2-3 (LATENCY!)

   
rotating out of view today

11402

88° -102° W

28° N

  X1.7/1F at 18:37 UTC VIRGO PARTIAL? JAN- 30    
 

11408

04°E - 10° W

08° N

JAN- 27

          LIKELY EVENT REGIONS > EUROPE AFRICA CNTR AMERICA  
                    REMARKS: TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS:  
 

11410

67° - 53 ° E

  JAN- 31        

IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES:  
                         
                   

TODAY`S CME ALERTS:

   
                    IMPACT BEGIN INT. CME NR.    
       

 

 

               
                  last prior CME ARRIVAL:      
         

 

 
  JAN- 24/ 14:00 UTC 07/12 VOLCANO ACTIVITIES MAJOR EARTHQUAKES MOST LIKELY EXPECTABLE ON:    
                    STRENGTH (nanoTesla        
  CORONAL HOLES (CH) NUMBER LATITUDE: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING FADING (OUT)   185 nT     JAN 26- FEB- 04  
        CH 496 appr. 45°- 60° S RECURRENT JAN- 20- 2011 JAN- 23- 25-2012    

APPROACHING CMEs>>

1?

EXPECTED ON:

JAN- 30

INT. NUMBER:

08/122  
        CH 497 ass. to CH 496 CLOSED JAN- 21- 2011 JAN 22- 24-2012 JAN 26   NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION (oftenly issued one day after)  

NOTICES>

  geomagnetic storms (G)  

radio blackouts (R)

-- solar radiation storms(S)    
                a    

SECTION 3

CME EVENT SECTION:

                     
                           

3.3. GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF LATEST CME IMPACT/ REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE LARGEST CME EFFECTS

           
EXPLANATIONS>

red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME or CME cluster/ Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./ green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT. Red backcolor marks the peak impact regions. The relatively strongest seismic activities therefore most likely would occure on the tectonic boundaries between the red and the yellow backcolored regions.

 
IMPACT REPORT to CME Nr 07/12> EURASIA, S-W ASIA. INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES CENTRAL PACIFIC: KAMCHATKA, JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NZ, PNG,. VANUATU,. FIJI WESTERN USA AND EASTERN PACIFIC/ CANADA/ ALASKA/ USA WEST COASTS EASTERN AND CENTRAL AMERICA/ CARIBIC/COLUMBIA,/PERU ENTIRE ATLANTIC/ SOUTHERN AMERICA - EASTERN COAST CENTRAL EUROPE/ AFRICA/ ASIA MINOR

related CME ARRIVAL:

06/12

LONGITUDES>

120° E- 60° E

180° - 120° E

120° W- 180° W

60° W- 120° W

00° W- 60° W

60° E- 00°

2012/01/24 (Nr. 07/12)  

TIME ZONES ( UTC- day)

UTC-8 /UTC-7/ UTC-6/ UTC-5

UTC+11/ UTC+10/ UTC+9 /UTC+ 8)

UTC-9/ UTC-10/ UTC-11/ UTC-12

UTC-5/ UTC- 6/ UTC- 7/ UTC- 8

UTC-1/ UTC-2/ UTC-3 /UTC-4

UTC-3/ UTC-2/ UTC-1/ GMT

   
                             

3.4. TODAY`s CME EVENTS: :

    OBSERVED TODAY> ( see report Jan- 26)                      
                           

SECTION 4 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

                       

TODAY`s EVENTS

remarks: DIFFERENTLY TO MEDIA REPORTS, ALL REPORTS HERE ARE ASSOCIATED TO THEIR REAL EVENT DATE! SCROLL DOWN FOR ALL PREVIOUS DAYS REPORTS! TODAY`S REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER / TOMORROW!  
 
 

EARTHQUAKES

   

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

Earthquake data as published by NEIC or EMSC  

EARTHQUAKES ABOVE M 6.0

NAME of REGION:

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: MAGNITUDE DEPTH CATHEGORY FIND WITH GOOGLE EARTH:     EXTERNAL SOURCES ( wikipedia a.o.)  
                   
(Europe:M 5:0 and higher)                  
CYCLADE ISLAND / GREECE    
CONTINUING EARTHQUAKE SWARM SOUTH OF SANTORIN/ GREECE JAN- 28- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O: 26 HIGHEST MEASURED MAGNITUDE: M 4.7 - DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE - 2012-01-28 10:50 UTC  
       

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

                       

EVENTS

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL LOCAL SURVEY GOOGLE EARTH WEBCAM

 

  SOURCES:  

DATA

                   
       
TODAY ( Jan- 25- 2012 >

TROPICAL STORMS - 

- No update today-

globaldisasterwatch./20120125  

 

ATLANTIC BASIN >

No active storms at this time.
No potential storms at this time

PACIFIC BASIN>

No active storms at this time.
No potential storms at this time.

  real time sat images : stormpulse.com  

 

 

 

 

 

                             

YEAR:

2012

 

MONTH:

JANUARY

 

DAY:

27

       

SECTION 1 >

YESTERDAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

solar data by: solen.info      

SECTION 2 >

EXPERIMENTAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST

 
LAST REPORT (previous day) SUNSPOTS: FLARES TODAY`S ALERTS: AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

388-521

      ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)    

JAN- 26- 2012

55

class >> C M X X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 7.3

  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY:

2012- JANUARY- 27

   

 

SOLAR FLUX:

FLARES (total)

09

 

 

GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY:

70- 100 nT

  QUIET

5.5- >7.5

2-3 (LATENCY?)    
 

128

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS: CORONAL MASS EJECTION: QUALITIES UNSETTLED

2012- JANUARY- 28

 
  PLANETARY A INDEX: ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latitude: appr. EARTH FACING ON

SIGNIFICANT FLARES

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH-DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: MINOR STORM

5.5- >7.5

2-3 (LATENCY?)

 

18

  MAJOR STORM

2012- JANUARY- 29

   
 

11402

74° -88° W

28° N

          FLUCTUATIONS

5.5- 7.0

2-3

   
                       
                    LIKELY EVENT REGIONS > EUROPE AFRICA CNTR AMERICA  
 

11408

04°E - 10° W

08° N

JAN- 27

          REMARKS: TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS:  
                   

IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES:  

11410

67° - 53 ° E

  JAN- 31                
                 

TODAY`S CME ALERTS:

   
                  IMPACT BEGIN INT. CME NR.    
     

 

 

               
                last prior CME ARRIVAL:      
         

 

 
  JAN- 24/ 14:00 UTC 07/12 VOLCANO ACTIVITIES MAJOR EARTHQUAKES MOST LIKELY EXPECTABLE ON:    
                    STRENGTH (nanoTesla        
  CORONAL HOLES (CH) NUMBER LATITUDE: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING FADING (OUT)   185 nT     JAN 26- FEB- 04  
        CH 496 appr. 45°- 60° S RECURRENT JAN- 20- 2011 JAN- 23- 25-2012    

APPROACHING CMEs>>

0

EXPECTED ON:

 

INT. NUMBER:

5/12

 
        CH 497 ass. to CH 496 CLOSED JAN- 21- 2011 JAN 22- 24-2012 JAN- 26?   NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION (oftenly issued one day after)  

NOTICES>

  geomagnetic storms (G)  

radio blackouts (R)

-- solar radiation storms(S)    
                a    
                         

SECTION 3

CME EVENT SECTION:

                     
                           

3.3. GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF LATEST CME IMPACT/ REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE LARGEST CME EFFECTS

           
EXPLANATIONS>

red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME or CME cluster/ Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./ green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT. Red backcolor marks the peak impact regions. The relatively strongest seismic activities therefore most likely would occure on the tectonic boundaries between the red and the yellow backcolored regions.

 
IMPACT REPORT to CME Nr 07/12> EURASIA, S-W ASIA. INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES CENTRAL PACIFIC: KAMCHATKA, JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NZ, PNG,. VANUATU,. FIJI WESTERN USA AND EASTERN PACIFIC/ CANADA/ ALASKA/ USA WEST COASTS EASTERN AND CENTRAL AMERICA/ CARIBIC/COLUMBIA,/PERU ENTIRE ATLANTIC/ SOUTHERN AMERICA - EASTERN COAST CENTRAL EUROPE/ AFRICA/ ASIA MINOR

related CME ARRIVAL:

06/12

LONGITUDES>

120° E- 60° E

180° - 120° E

120° W- 180° W

60° W- 120° W

00° W- 60° W

60° E- 00°

2012/01/24 (Nr. 07/12)  

TIME ZONES ( UTC- day)

UTC-8 /UTC-7/ UTC-6/ UTC-5

UTC+11/ UTC+10/ UTC+9 /UTC+ 8)

UTC-9/ UTC-10/ UTC-11/ UTC-12

UTC-5/ UTC- 6/ UTC- 7/ UTC- 8

UTC-1/ UTC-2/ UTC-3 /UTC-4

UTC-3/ UTC-2/ UTC-1/ GMT

   
                             

3.4. TODAY`s CME EVENTS: :

    OBSERVED TODAY>                        

EVENT DESCRIPTION

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latitude:  

SOLAR ACTIVITY

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME: EARTH-DIRECTED? ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:   DESCRIPTION/ REMARKS: INT CME TRACKING NR.  
NEW eruptive prominence 11402 88° -102° W 28° N   X1.7/1F at 18:37 UTC VIRGO PARTIAL? JAN- 30   ( by: solen.info)January 27: The X1 limb event in region 11402 was associated with a very fast and wide asymmetric full halo CME (in LASCO imagery). Due to the location of the event it is unclear if the extension to a full halo event is caused by backsided or frontsided material. If frontsided there's a chance of a flank CME impact on January 29 or 30. 08/21  
     
 

Multiple CME events or CME clusters make earthquake forecasts harder to calculate as they cause a certain delay ("latency!) of up to 8 days or more until that major quake than occures that follows each major CME impact.There were some minor events since the large Earth directed CME on January 23 such as a minor CME that went of into half Southern direction and was measured on GOES on Jan 27. These events dont pose any new thread by themselves ,but they extend the latency time of the earthquake effects caused by major CME Impact such as the one on Jan- 24. Therefor I have extended the latency estimation for this multiple event until FEB- 04.

A CME erupted today- Jan- 27 after 18:00 UTC on the Northern Polar region of the Sun. STEREO Behind shows, that the origion of the main source of this CME was some degrees behind the Northern limb already on the backside of the Sun. On STEREO Ahead the event seems to be associated to another flare CME on the front side -most likely AR 11408- with the position N08E04 almost centrally Earth directed. SDO images of the event are not available yet but will be so tomorrow.

update. Jan 29: SDO has not covered the entire large X event observed on jan- 27, but at leats its beginning: images (3) ad (4) show the x event in AR 11401/02 at the Eastern limb that began on January 27 around at 16:25 UTC and was as also described by solen, info/ NOAA. Also solen asks about and there was indeed a tiny minor C flare and weak CME shortly before that large event in 11 408 in the centre of the Sun disc. This weak event can only be hardly detected in the movie mode on SDO Website, so I dont insert a single image into my report of that event

 
(1) 20120127/ 18:55 UTC (2) 20120127/ 18:54 UTC (3) 20120127/ 16:29 UTC (4) 20120127/ 21:28 UTC       Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD  
      position  
STEREO "Behind " STEREO "Ahead" SDO /AIA(comp SDO /AIA(comp SDO /AIA 171 / HMI (comp).   SDO /AIA(comp.          
                           

SECTION 4 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

                       

TODAY`s EVENTS

remarks: DIFFERENTLY TO MEDIA REPORTS, ALL REPORTS HERE ARE ASSOCIATED TO THEIR REAL EVENT DATE! SCROLL DOWN FOR ALL PREVIOUS DAYS REPORTS! TODAY`S REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER / TOMORROW!  
 
 

EARTHQUAKES

   

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

Earthquake data as published by NEIC or EMSC  

EARTHQUAKES ABOVE M 6.0

NAME of REGION:

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: MAGNITUDE DEPTH CATHEGORY FIND WITH GOOGLE EARTH:     EXTERNAL SOURCES ( wikipedia a.o.)  
        M 5.3          
(Europe:M 5:0 and higher) CRETE, GREECE 35.96 N ; 25.02 E     13 km unknown      
DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

The Earthquake swarm betwen the Greek island of Creteand Santorin in the north that began yesterday with a powerful 5.2 qauke continued until today. Until the time of this uodate more than 50 Earth quakes were meaasured- all about with the same epicenter as the inital quake and with magnitudes betwwen 3 and 4 some ever higer than M 4. No media reports yet from the events or from the island itself

The stronger M 5.3 quake today was just a bit more to the South of the main swarm epicenter but was associated to the island of Crete while previous ones were associated tio Dodocenese islands

Major Earthquakeactivities however will continue during the next days and the expected bigger one" that happens after each stronger CME impact just like the " Amen" in the Chirch is still expected and jet to come . The three following CME impacts on Jan 20- 24 however have heated up the tectonic plates around its impacts regions stronger than previously estimated, so that the latency takes longer until this qauke will occure. As usual the latency will be not more than 4 days.

 
SPECIAL SURVEY: EL HIERRO/ CANARY ISLANDS JAN- 27- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O: none HIGHEST MEASURED MAGNITUDE:    
CANARY ISLANDS      

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

                       

EVENTS

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL LOCAL SURVEY GOOGLE EARTH WEBCAM

 

  SOURCES:  
  ETNA (Sicil/ ITALY) 37°44'3"N/ 15°0'16"E JAN- 27- 2012   INGV-CT ETNA        

DATA

SOUFRIERE HILLS 16°43'0"N/ 62°11'0"W JAN- 27- 2012   MVO SOUFRIERE HILLS      

Sezione di Catania - Osservatorio Etneo reported that an explosion at the New Southeast Crater (New SEC) of Etna generated an ash plume at that rose 400 m above the crater at 1906 on 27 January. An explosive ash emission at 1124 from the vent on the W portion of the crater floor was followed by others that were less intense. At 2140 an explosion ejected incandescent material in a narrow vertical jet that rose a few tens of meters above the crater. A small Strombolian explosion occurred at 2231. On 28 January sporadic ash emissions continued from New SEC.

   

MVO reported that during 20-27 January activity at the Soufrière Hills lava dome was at a low level. Small areas of incandescence emanated from the lava dome at night, similar to observations noted in recent months. On 27 January a small lahar descended from the W side of the lava dome. The Hazard Level remained at 2.

   

STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

             
TODAY ( Jan- 25- 2012 >

TROPICAL STORMS - 
In the Indian Ocean - 
- Tropical cyclone 08s (Funso) was located approximately 377 nm east-northeast of Maputo, Mozambique.
- Tropical cyclone 09s (Iiggy) was located approximately 485 nm northwest of Learmonth, Australia.

globaldisasterwatch./20120125  

 

ATLANTIC BASIN >

No active storms at this time.
No potential storms at this time

PACIFIC BASIN>

No active storms at this time.
No potential storms at this time.

  real time sat images : stormpulse.com  

DISASTERS

                       

DATA >

               
 

Accumulating 'microplastic' threat to shores

Microscopic plastic debris from washing clothes is accumulating in the marine environment and could be entering the food chain, a study has warned. Researchers traced the "microplastic" back to synthetic clothes, which released up to 1,900 tiny fibres per garment every time they were washed. Earlier research showed plastic smaller than 1mm were being eaten by animals and getting into the food chain....read more...

.bbc.co.uk/

news/science-environment-20120127

 

 

 

 

 

 

                             

YEAR:

2012

 

MONTH:

JANUARY

 

DAY:

26

       

SECTION 1 >

YESTERDAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

solar data by: solen.info      

SECTION 2 >

EXPERIMENTAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST

 
LAST REPORT (previous day) SUNSPOTS: FLARES TODAY`S ALERTS: AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

506-625

      ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)    

JAN- 25- 2012

68

class >> C M X X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 4.9

  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY:

2012- JANUARY- 26

   

 

SOLAR FLUX:

FLARES (total)

 

 

 

GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY:

13- 110 nT

  QUIET

5.5- >7.5

2-3    
 

126

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS: CORONAL MASS EJECTION: QUALITIES UNSETTLED

2012- JANUARY- 27

 
  PLANETARY A INDEX: ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latitude: appr. EARTH FACING ON

SIGNIFICANT FLARES

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH-DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: MINOR STORM

5.5- >7.5

2-3

 

18

  MAJOR STORM

2012- JANUARY- 28

   
                  FLUCTUATIONS

5.5- 7.0

2-3

   
 

11402

60° -74° W

28° N

               
 

11408

30°- 16° E

08° N

JAN- 27

          LIKELY EVENT REGIONS > EUROPE AFRICA CNTR AMERICA  
                    REMARKS: TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS:  
                   

IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES:  
                       
                 

TODAY`S CME ALERTS:

   
                  IMPACT BEGIN INT. CME NR.    
     

 

 

               
                last prior CME ARRIVAL:      
         

 

 
  JAN- 24/ 14:00 UTC 07/12 VOLCANO ACTIVITIES MAJOR EARTHQUAKES MOST LIKELY EXPECTABLE ON:    
                    STRENGTH (nanoTesla        
  CORONAL HOLES (CH) NUMBER LATITUDE: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING FADING (OUT)   185 nT     JAN 26- JAN- 28  
        CH 496 appr. 45°- 60° S RECURRENT JAN- 20- 2011 JAN- 23- 25-2012    

APPROACHING CMEs>>

0

EXPECTED ON:

 

INT. NUMBER:

5/12

 
        CH 497 ass. to CH 496 GROWING JAN- 21- 2011 JAN 22- 24-2012     NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION (oftenly issued one day after)  

NOTICES>

  geomagnetic storms (G)  

radio blackouts (R)

-- solar radiation storms(S) S 2  
                a    
                         

SECTION 3

CME EVENT SECTION:

                     
                           

3.3. GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF LATEST CME IMPACT/ REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE LARGEST CME EFFECTS

           
EXPLANATIONS>

red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME or CME cluster/ Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./ green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT. Red backcolor marks the peak impact regions. The relatively strongest seismic activities therefore most likely would occure on the tectonic boundaries between the red and the yellow backcolored regions.

 
IMPACT REPORT to CME Nr 07/12> EURASIA, S-W ASIA. INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES CENTRAL PACIFIC: KAMCHATKA, JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NZ, PNG,. VANUATU,. FIJI WESTERN USA AND EASTERN PACIFIC/ CANADA/ ALASKA/ USA WEST COASTS EASTERN AND CENTRAL AMERICA/ CARIBIC/COLUMBIA,/PERU ENTIRE ATLANTIC/ SOUTHERN AMERICA - EASTERN COAST CENTRAL EUROPE/ AFRICA/ ASIA MINOR

related CME ARRIVAL:

06/12

LONGITUDES>

120° E- 60° E

180° - 120° E

120° W- 180° W

60° W- 120° W

00° W- 60° W

60° E- 00°

2012/01/24 (Nr. 07/12)  

TIME ZONES ( UTC- day)

UTC-8 /UTC-7/ UTC-6/ UTC-5

UTC+11/ UTC+10/ UTC+9 /UTC+ 8)

UTC-9/ UTC-10/ UTC-11/ UTC-12

UTC-5/ UTC- 6/ UTC- 7/ UTC- 8

UTC-1/ UTC-2/ UTC-3 /UTC-4

UTC-3/ UTC-2/ UTC-1/ GMT

   
                             

3.4. TODAY`s CME EVENTS: :

    OBSERVED TODAY>                        
 

(1) a minor CME from a flare on the southern Sun hemisphere was observed on the evening of January 24, but not taken into consideration, as it was very weak and seems just to haveif, then minimal Earth directed parts. (See also essay in report for January 25 below) Typically as after the most larger eruptions (as the one observed on Jan- 23) the number of sun spots dropped form 108 on Jan 24 to 68 on January 26 .The solar flux folloes always always a bit behind and has dropped from 170 SFU on Jan 24 to 94 SFU today. January 26- 2012. So the Sun is expected to be rather calm for the next days!

Another strong event- most likely a filament eruption could be observed early today on Jan- 26. STEREO and SoHO images indicate that the CME core is heading almost straight northwards. SDO images don` t show any significant frontside event. So the larger eruption must have its origin behind the Northern Pole on the backside of the Sun. Both- SoHOand STEREO also show a major (M) flare activity from an incoming active region on the Eastern limb , that is not numbered jet by NOAA.

 
(1) 20120124/ 21:54 UTC (2) 20120126/ 06:09 UTC (3) 20120126/ 07:06 UTC   20120126/ 07:10 UTC     Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD  
       
STEREO "Behind " STEREO "Ahead" SoHO/ LASCO C3 SoHO/ LASCO C2 SDO /AIA 171 / HMI (comp).   SDO /AIA(comp.          
                           

SECTION 4 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

                       

TODAY`s EVENTS

remarks: DIFFERENTLY TO MEDIA REPORTS, ALL REPORTS HERE ARE ASSOCIATED TO THEIR REAL EVENT DATE! SCROLL DOWN FOR ALL PREVIOUS DAYS REPORTS! TODAY`S REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER / TOMORROW!  
 
 

EARTHQUAKES

   

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

Earthquake data as published by NEIC or EMSC  

EARTHQUAKES ABOVE M 6.0

NAME of REGION:

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: MAGNITUDE DEPTH CATHEGORY FIND WITH GOOGLE EARTH:     EXTERNAL SOURCES ( wikipedia a.o.)  
                   
(Europe:M 5:0 and higher) DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE
36.07 N ; 25.07 E
2012-01-26 04:24 UTC M 5.3 14 km no report found yet.      
 

Numerous aftershocks followed the initial quake and continued at the time of this update. All epicenters are about halfway between the Island of Santorin in the North and the Island of Crete in the south on the southern slope of the subsea formartion that belongs to the Sanatorin archipelago. >>

: the new quake could be related to recently measured increased seismic activities on the island of Santorin . Santorin ( old name: "Thera" is situated on a triple conjunction of the tectonic plates of Africa ,Eurasia and the arabian peninsula. The shield volcano Santorin - supposed to be a hot spot volcano- exploded around 1500 B.C. That probably largest volcano (hydrogen) explosion - recorded in human history just left a sickle formed ring of the island . Volcanic material such as stones of santorin were found even in Arctic regions.The volcano remained active and is- since the main island exploded- still in its center but meanwhile mainl u nder sealevel.

 
SPECIAL SURVEY: EL HIERRO/ CANARY ISLANDS JAN- 26- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O:   HIGHEST MEASURED MAGNITUDE:    
CANARY ISLANDS      

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

                       

EVENTS

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL LOCAL SURVEY GOOGLE EARTH WEBCAM

 

  SOURCES:  

DATA

POPOCATEPETL pos 19°1'24"N/ 98°37'20"W JAN- 26- 2012   CENAPRED POPOCATEPETL    
       

STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

             

 

ATLANTIC BASIN >

No active storms at this time.
No potential storms at this time

PACIFIC BASIN>

No active storms at this time.
No potential storms at this time.

  real time sat images : stormpulse.com  

 

 

 

 

 

                             

YEAR:

2012

 

MONTH:

JANUARY

 

DAY:

25

       

SECTION 1 >

YESTERDAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

solar data by: solen.info      

SECTION 2 >

EXPERIMENTAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST

 
LAST REPORT (previous day) SUNSPOTS: FLARES TODAY`S ALERTS: AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

350-454

      ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)    

JAN- 24- 2012

105

class >> C M X X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 5.8

  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY:

2012- JANUARY- 25

   

 

SOLAR FLUX:

FLARES (total)

03

 

 

GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY:

40- 185 nT

  QUIET

5.5- >7.5

2-3 ( LATENCY?)    
 

135

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS: CORONAL MASS EJECTION: QUALITIES UNSETTLED

2012- JANUARY- 26

 
  PLANETARY A INDEX: ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latitude: appr. EARTH FACING ON

SIGNIFICANT FLARES

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH-DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: MINOR STORM

5.5- >7.5

2-3

 

24

  MAJOR STORM

2012- JANUARY- 27

   
 

11401

55° - 69 ° W

17° N

          FLUCTUATIONS

5.5- 7.0

2-3

   
 

11402

46° -60° W

28° N

JAN- 21

             
 

11405

38° - 52° W

12° N

JAN- 22

          LIKELY EVENT REGIONS > EUROPE AFRICA CNTR AMERICA  
       

 

          REMARKS: TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS:  
 

11407

68° - 82 ° W

18° N

 

         

IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES:  
     

 

             

11408

30°- 16° E

08° N

JAN- 27

         

TODAY`S CME ALERTS:

   

11409

14°-00° E

17° N

JAN- 25

          IMPACT BEGIN INT. CME NR.    
       

 

               
                last prior CME ARRIVAL:      
         

 

 
  JAN- 24/ 14:00 UTC 07/12 VOLCANO ERUPTIONS MAJOR EARTHQUAKES MOST LIKELY EXPECTABLE ON:    
                    STRENGTH (nanoTesla   RAPIDE MELTDOWNS    
  CORONAL HOLES (CH) NUMBER LATITUDE: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING FADING (OUT)   185 nT   STORMS JAN 26- JAN- 28  
        CH 496 appr. 45°- 60° S RECURRENT JAN- 20- 2011 JAN- 23- 25-2012    

APPROACHING CMEs>>

0

EXPECTED ON:

 

INT. NUMBER:

5/12

 
        CH 497 ass. to CH 496 GROWING JAN- 21- 2011 JAN 22- 24-2012     NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION (oftenly issued one day after)  

NOTICES>

  geomagnetic storms (G)  

radio blackouts (R)

-- solar radiation storms(S) S 2  
                a    

SECTION 3

CME EVENT SECTION:

                     
                           

3.3. GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT

           
EXPLANATIONS>

red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME or CME cluster/ Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./ green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT. Red backcolor marks the peak impact regions. The relatively strongest seismic activities therefore most likely would occure on the tectonic boundaries between the red and the yellow (backcolored) regions.

related CME ARRIVAL  
IMPACT REPORT to CME Nr 07/12> EURASIA, S-W ASIA. INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES CENTRAL PACIFIC: KAMCHATKA, JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NZ, PNG,. VANUATU,. FIJI WESTERN USA AND EASTERN PACIFIC/ CANADA/ ALASKA/ USA WEST COASTS EASTERN AND CENTRAL AMERICA/ CARIBIC/COLUMBIA,/PERU ENTIRE ATLANTIC/ SOUTHERN AMERICA - EASTERN COAST CENTRAL EUROPE/ AFRICA/ ASIA MINOR

2012/01/24 (Nr. 07/12)

06/12

LONGITUDES>

120° E- 60° E

180° - 120° E

120° W- 180° W

60° W- 120° W

00° W- 60° W

60° E- 00°

   

TIME ZONES ( UTC- day)

UTC-8 /UTC-7/ UTC-6/ UTC-5

UTC+11/ UTC+10/ UTC+9 /UTC+ 8)

UTC-9/ UTC-10/ UTC-11/ UTC-12

UTC-5/ UTC- 6/ UTC- 7/ UTC- 8

UTC-1/ UTC-2/ UTC-3 /UTC-4

UTC-3/ UTC-2/ UTC-1/ GMT

   
                             

3.4. TODAY`s CME EVENTS: :

    OBSERVED TODAY>                        
                           

SECTION 4 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

                       

TODAY`s EVENTS

remarks: DIFFERENTLY TO MEDIA REPORTS, ALL REPORTS HERE ARE ASSOCIATED TO THEIR REAL EVENT DATE! SCROLL DOWN FOR ALL PREVIOUS DAYS REPORTS! TODAY`S REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER / TOMORROW!  
 
please wait...update currently in progress- Jan- 25- 2012
 

EARTHQUAKES

   

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

Earthquake data as published by NEIC or EMSC  

EARTHQUAKES ABOVE M 6.0

NAME of REGION:

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: MAGNITUDE DEPTH CATHEGORY FIND WITH GOOGLE EARTH:     EXTERNAL SOURCES ( wikipedia a.o.)  
                   
(Europe:M 5:0 and higher) NORTHERN ITALY 44.91 N ; 10.51 E 2012-01-25 08:06 UTC M 5.0 10 km unknown      
CANARY ISLANDS

The Central Atlantic was in the main path of all three recent CME impacts ( nr. 05- 07/ 21. I had a discussion with an oceanographer from the Spanish geological survey- responsible for the Canar y islands. I told him, that the last eruptions of the volcano el Hierro were conincident to several CME impacts , those impacted previously mainly above the Atlanticlast year ( see earlier reports in ma archives) . Well- no real major CME was observed since then and also the El Hierro volcano was rather quiet for almost two month - at least no quake measured there that exceeded magnitude 2. Now - after another time a whole of three major CME arriving between Jan 20 and Jan 24 had their main impact again above the Atlantic (30° W) and today first time since October 2011 the activities in the region began to increase a new time. They will as I believe increase further during the next days.

 
SPECIAL SURVEY: EL HIERRO/ CANARY ISLANDS JAN- 25- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O: 02 HIGHEST MEASURED MAGNITUDE: M 2.8 - CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION - 2012-01-25 20:22 UTC  
       

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

                       

EVENTS

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL LOCAL SURVEY GOOGLE EARTH WEBCAM

 

  SOURCES:  

DATA

                   
 

Please note, that this volcano activity report does not represent al present global volcano activities, The  GVP Network is based on many helpers, those also live in regions were no modern equippment is available. Some volcanoes are hardly accessable or in remote regions. Many new activity report come in lately and are issued then also one wek later. Nevertheless I try to keep this blog update with latest media reports, so far as available.

Smithsonian / USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report

18 January-24 January 2012

New Activity/Unrest: | Sangay, Ecuador | Tungurahua, Ecuador | Turrialba, Costa Rica 
Ongoing Activity: | Fuego, Guatemala | Hierro, Canary Islands (Spain) | Karymsky, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) | Kilauea, Hawaii (USA) | Kizimen, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) | Popocatépetl, México |Puyehue-Cordón Caulle, Central Chile | Sakura-jima, Kyushu | Santa María, Guatemala | Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia)

This page is updated on Wednesdays. Please see the GVP Home Page for news of the latest significant activity.

The 

 GVP  

SEVERE WEATHERS/ CLIMATE >

                     
 

Dozens reported dead in PNG landslide

UP to 60 people are feared killed in a massive landslide which hit villages near the ExxonMobil-led LNG project in Papua New Guinea's Southern Highlands.The landslide struck at 7am (AEDT) yesterday near the Nogoli base for the liquefied natural gas plant site, northwest of Port Moresby. ExxonMobil says all its staff have been accounted f..read more...

heraldsun.com.au/20120125  

MEDIA REPORTS>

?

Extreme weather threat across Australia

This week has turned into one of extreme weather across the Australian continent, weatherzone.com.au reports.There is a growing flood threat across eastern Australia this week, while in Western Australia, Perth is experiencing heatwave conditions that are forecast to continue for at least another week. In the north of Western Australia, coastal communities will be on alert due to the potential for a tropical cyclone to form. Widespread rainfall of 50-150mm has caused major flooding in parts of NSW and minor flooding in south-east Queensland. Bellingen in NSW has had a bucket-full, with 167mm in the 24 hours to 9am today, while Upper Darkwood to the west gained 178mm, Weatherzone meteorologist Douglas Fenton said.m Dorrigo was inundated with as much as 100mm in just one hour and 209mm during the past 24 hours, their heaviest rain since May 2009, he said. :...read more...

smh.com.au/l  

STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

             
 

Powerful, dangerous Tropical Cyclone Funso has continued to lash central Mozambique with flooding rain and damaging winds. The region is staggering from last week's swipe by Tropical Storms Dando, a Category One storm.

Cyclone-hit Indians will take "years" to rebuild livelihoods - It could take "years" for hundreds of thousands of people in southeastern India to rebuild their livelihoods after a devastating cyclone wiped out their entire plantations of cash crops last month. 

globaldisasterwatch/20120125  
TODAY ( Jan- 25- 2012 >

TROPICAL STORMS - 
In the Indian Ocean - 
Tropical cyclone 08s (Funso) was located approximately 400 nm northeast of Maputo, Mozambique

globaldisasterwatch./20120125  

 

ATLANTIC BASIN >

No active storms at this time.
No potential storms at this time

PACIFIC BASIN>

No active storms at this time.
No potential storms at this time.

  real time sat images : stormpulse.com  

SPECIAL REPORTS:

                   

 

DATA >

AR 11402 SOLAR STORM JAN- 23- 2012 after 3:05 UTC SEVERE FULLY HALO and EARTH DIRECTZED      

INTERNAL REPORT ON SUN ACTIVITY ( MAGNETIC ERUPTION/ JAN- 23- 2012)>

 

created by:

alien-homepage.de

PRELIMINARY REMARKS:

CME eruptions go along with intensive x ray bursts and even the plasma in the CME produces x rays while travelling to Earth. The question among scientists is rather, While the geomagnetic field rejects most particles of the CME, it can`t absorb the huge amount of energy within this plasma. Its also not absorbed by the atmosphere but rather transformed. However. most solar scientists are not interested in these questions research that! . Just the Max Planck Institute in Munich/ Germany (creator of the SoHO spacecraft. the pioneer among all solar spacecraft observeratories such as STEREO and SDO) has made research how these CME energies distribute on Earth and its interior .I have found such a document and linked that essay by MPI on t one of my "solar pages",but will have to search for it to post it later also here.

GENERAL: WHAT CREATES A CORONAL MASS EJECTION ( CME)?

: CMEs get the high acceleration necessary to escape the enourmous gravity on the Sun by the fact that the sun gazes are suppresed below Coronal holes or ARs. Its a similar effect as if you press on a hose with water and the water stream becomes faster and sharper. Sun plasma if ejected as any CME first expands just like a spring if it heads out in space, as the sun gravity on it becomes less equivalent to that distance.This is a kind of natural law (means it will always be effective) that ever will prevent that the entire CME mass can hit the Earth . If the entire mass of a large CME ever would have hit the Earth and even just ONCE in the entire 5 Trillion years history of our Sun system, it might have exstinguished life on Earth, resp. life would never have had the chance to survice on it.

This again raises the question what such a CME does on the plantets Mercury and Venus those are much closer to the Sun ( Mercury is in less than the half distance) and undoubtlessly get a multiple of such a CME load than the Earth. However-both planets are out of solid rock, both have ( differently to the planet Mars outside the Earth orbit) even a magnetic field (which as I suppose is fed by solar winds) and Venus even the reminents of a complete athmosphere! But- there is no life on them . And the intensity by which these planets are hit by solar winds and CMEs might be one reason for that! and The earth? Again it turns out we are safe and sound. as if nature has created a "corner" or "place" of extensions within the Sun sytem for us and all life on Earth, what scientists call the " INHABITABLE LIFE ZONE" around a star

CURRENTLY OBSERVED SUN ACTIVITIES

Observing these sat images on a daily basis as I do since 2010, one can make interesting observations. There a at least three types of eruptions those produce CMEs:

1. FLARE ASSOCIATED CMEs

Flares are long fiery eruptions from kind of leaks were the sun gazes break free a hole or path around the dense matter of sun spots (those anyway behave 4me like black holes) or Coronal Holes.There were many flares in 2011 but in Oct they became less, while sun spot grew bigger, Until Dec 2011almost only socalled filament eruptions were observed. Reviewing CMEs emmited by Sun spot ( mostly associated wih minor or major flares), on can see some characteristics in these type of eruptions:

While the flare it self might be rather large and huge, the CME produced by it rather will be equivalently small. Means: smaller flares produce stronger CMEs and opposite. These CMEs usually have a higher acceleration than filament eruptions. The amount of ejected material might be rather small, but the initial acceleration and type of explosion caused by the physics within the Sun spot, forms t such a CME to a narrow bundle which than ( as described above) expands to the form of a funnel while heading out into space. However that what we see on the satellite images and believ to be the CME itself, is not the CME b just the x ray burst that goes along with each eruption , explosion or a flare reflected by Sun wind matter around the Sun! Never before the sun spot activity could be observed in history as now during the maximum in 2012. !And we all look- first time- like childs onto the sun, rather wondering than knowing jet, what we can observe there all day long. This also NASA has experienced jet and had to correct some predictions first,. But meanwhile they seem to have much improved their knowledge and draw better conclusions and predictions from what satellites send as images or measure datas to Earth..

Such a CME has a kind of core in the middle of that funnel and higher concentration of Sun plasma on he edges of that funnel, which appears if directly Earth directed as a ringand if fully Earth directed as a halo around te sun soon after it erupts. The quality of such a fare CMEs is also subject to reaearch and this is done by NASA and others. What I research are not effects on technical devices but tose effects, CMEs have on the Earth, its geophysical nature and on the climate. Sofar as I can say out of my statics and documentary since 2010, a CME from a flare has( allthough the amount of emmited sun gases is maybe the smalles among all eruption types) a high potential to create all kinds of terrestrial effects from radio blackouts to larger Earthquakes. And- as I believe- this only because the source of such an eruption. physical processes within so called "sun spots" or spotted areas ( resp. active regions) only can produce that type of eruption , that bundles and compress the CMEmatter ( allthout it also expands out in space) so strongly that it even has effects within the Earth magnetic field and atmosphere.

The huge Earthquake in Japan on March 11- 2011 is the best example for that, It happened soon after two flare CME has arrived on Earth

2 FILAMENT ERUPTIONS

Filament eruptions are likely the largest eruptions on the Sun DUring filament eruptions the most Sun matter is thrown to the Heliosphere and also the largest CMEs are produced. A Filament is an edge to something - On the sun those filament eruptions occure mainly along the edges of so called Coronal Holes (temporarily appearing large ares of denser matter, that can cover a quarter of the visible Sun disc, which supresses the sun gases below until these break free and path through the CH or along its edges. There are obvious large filament eruptions ( those occure along Millions of kilometer on the sun surface), and smaller ones which are not so spectaculous. They produce what iks called " high or low sun wind streams form Coronal Holes.

The quality of filament eruptions is: 1. they can last for days , while they produce constant IRREGULAR Suns wind streams towards Earth , those are meaasured then by geomagnetometers as more or less strong fluctuations in the geomagnetic field density . als each amount of SUn wind rthat hits the Earth they also load up the geomagnetic fielsometimes to the double of its niormal values . Filament eruptions- by the high amount of emmited Sun matter ( sun wind) are ( statistically see) oftnntly related to volcano activities . But also- and this seem to be for me very significant, filament eruptions are ths sources of the major radio blackouts (= disturbance of radio tranmission by their X ray emmission and load) and not the lfares or eruptive prominences.

3 ERUPTIVE PROMINENCES

I don`t know whether this term is correctly for the magnetic eruptions we have just observed in AR 11402 ( see NASA SDO video below)

What NASA calls "explosion" seems to be a kind of new phase towards the 11 years sun spot maximum . Those eruptions could be frequently observed since jan 2012 . They are more intensive than flare CMEs, more bright and wide, and spread easier into all directions than flares, as they are not triggered on the Sun surface within a sun spot or CH but further out in space by prominences (magnetic loops or activities) .I thinks these eruption types are called "eruptive prominence". I would call them "electromagnatic eruptions" as they are triggered by enormous magnetic tensions building up around certainand larger sun spots. The eruptions observed on Jan 18 9 and 23 in AR 11402 seemed to be large as they appeared so very bright and wide ( In fact the CME was large but in reality this type of CMEs spread in all directions and dissolves quicker than other types in space.) . In fact. the material that arrived on Earth form these two large magnetic eruptions was not more than, what a minor flare associated CME from an active sun spot usually brings along

what makes them significant is the enourmous speed they get by the magnetic source that causes these eruptions. The second CMEobserved on Jan 23 just needed 36 hours to Earth ( what is record among all CMEs observed suince 2010) as fast they are as fast seem to come theirn effects. As this type of eruptions was first observed during this 11 years cycle in January 2012 , it nedds more cases to say it clearly. But that type od eruptions e+´seem to have the quality to create larger Earthquakes soon after its arrival.

I will observe hat and add notices if results can be found.

 

 

 

 

 

 

                             

YEAR:

2012

 

MONTH:

JANUARY

 

DAY:

24

             

SECTION 1 >

YESTERDAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

solar data by: solen.info      

SECTION 2 >

EXPERIMENTAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST

 
LAST REPORT (previous day) SUNSPOTS: FLARES TODAY`S ALERTS: AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

350-454

      ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)    

JAN- 23- 2012

108

class >> C M X X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 4.9

  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY:

2012- JANUARY- 24

   

 

SOLAR FLUX:

FLARES (total)

02

02

 

GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY:

20- 105 nT

  QUIET

5.5- 6.5

ALERT LEVEL (LATENCY)    
 

144

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS: CORONAL MASS EJECTION: QUALITIES UNSETTLED

2012- JANUARY- 25

 
  PLANETARY A INDEX: ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latitude: appr. EARTH FACING ON

SIGNIFICANT FLARES

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH-DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: MINOR STORM

5.5- >7.5

2-3 ( LATENCY?)
 

11

  MAJOR STORM

2012- JANUARY- 26

   
REEMERGED>

11399

45° - 59 ° W

20° S

          FLUCTUATIONS

5.5- >7.5

2-3

   
20120123/ CH 496/497                      

STAR MAP by solen.info

                  LIKELY EVENT REGIONS > EUROPE AFRICA CNTR AMERICA  

11401

42° - 56 ° W

17° N

            REMARKS: TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):  

11402

35° -49° W

28° N

JAN- 21

         

IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES:  

11405

23° - 37° W

12° N

JAN- 22

             

11407

54° - 68 ° W

18° N

 

         

TODAY`S CME ALERTS:

   

11408

44°- 30° E

08° N

JAN- 26

          IMPACT BEGIN INT. CME NR.    
 

11409

26°- 12° E

17° N

JAN- 25

 

        JAN- 24/ 14:00 UTC 07/12    
                  last prior CME ARRIVAL:      
         

 

 
  JAN- 22- 2012 (06/12)   VOLCANO ERUPTIONS MAJOR EARTHQUAKES MOST LIKELY EXPECTABLE ON:    
                    STRENGTH (nanoTesla   RAPIDE MELTDOWNS    
  CORONAL HOLES (CH) NUMBER LATITUDE: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING FADING (OUT)   165 nT   STORMS JAN 26- JAN- 28  
        CH 496 appr. 45°- 60° S GROWING JAN- 20- 2011 JAN- 23- 25-2012    

APPROACHING CMEs>>

1

EXPECTED ON:

JAN- 25

INT. NUMBER:

07 /1205/12

 
        CH 497 ass. to CH 496 GROWING JAN- 21- 2011 JAN 22- 24-2012     NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION (oftenly issued one day after)  

NOTICES>

  geomagnetic storms (G) G1

radio blackouts (R)

-- solar radiation storms(S) S 3  
                a    

SECTION 3

CME EVENT SECTION:

                     
                           

3.3. GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT

           
EXPLANATIONS>

red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME or CME cluster/ Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./ green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT. Red backcolor marks the peak impact regions. The relatively strongest seismic activities therefore most likely would occure on the tectonic boundaries between the red and the yellow (backcolored) regions.

related CME ARRIVAL  
IMPACT REPORT to CME Nr 07/12> EURASIA, S-W ASIA. INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES CENTRAL NZ, PNG,. VANUATU,. FIJI WESTERN USA AND EASTERN PACIFIC/ CANADA/ ALASKA/ USA WEST COASTS EASTERN AND CENTRAL AMERICA/ CARIBIC/COLUMBIA,/PERU ENTIRE ATLANTIC/ SOUTHERN AMERICA - EASTERN COAST CENTRAL EUROPE/ AFRICA/ ASIA MINOR

2012/01/24 (Nr. 07/12)

06/12

LONGITUDES>

120° E- 60° E

180° - 120° E

120° W- 180° W

60° W- 120° W

00° W- 60° W

60° E- 00°

   

TIME ZONES ( UTC- day)

UTC-8 /UTC-7/ UTC-6/ UTC-5

UTC+11/ UTC+10/ UTC+9 /UTC+ 8)

UTC-9/ UTC-10/ UTC-11/ UTC-12

UTC-5/ UTC- 6/ UTC- 7/ UTC- 8

UTC-1/ UTC-2/ UTC-3 /UTC-4

UTC-3/ UTC-2/ UTC-1/ GMT

   
                             

3.2. TODAY`s CME ARRIVALS (internal CME tracking)

                         

 

CME DATA (SOLAR) CME ARRIVAL DATA (EARTH)  

INTERNAL CME tracking Nr. 07/12

AR LONG LAT. DATE

*CME ERUPTION TYPE and TIME

EVENT CLASS

(X-RAY BURST)

REMARKS PEAK VALUES ON ACE ( duration) GOES FIRST IMPACT time/ longitude  

time/ longitudes/ with

values above 100 nT

*internal relative mass value* main impact region (geographic)* GOES peak peak value ( magnetic density (nanoTesla)* intern. Nr  
REMARKS

11402

22° - 36° W

28° N

JAN- 23- 2012

3:05 UTC

M1 at 3:05 MEDIUM- STRONG CME ( 2-3)

14:30- 18:00

Jan- 24- 2012  

14:00- 24:00 UTC (=30° W - 180°)

425

30°- 90° W

14:00 - 16:00 UTC

185 nT

07/12

 

CME was extraordinary fast. CENTRAL ATLANTIC WAS MAINLY HIT BY ALL THREE RECENT CMEs ( 05/12/ 06/12 and 07/12)

magnetic eruption/ eruptive prominence

M 8.7 at 03:55 UTC

IMPACT/END:

JAN- 25/8:30 UTC

14:00 UTC (CENTRAL ATLANTIC- ALASKA ATLANTIC, CNTR. AMERICA/ EASTERN PACIFIC
                 

* test value

  * GOEShp      
                             

3.4. TODAY`s CME EVENTS: :

    OBSERVED TODAY>                        
PACIFIC: KAMCHATKA, JAPAN- AUSTRALIA,  < Youtube video of the Solar storm and CME on Jan 23 by:            
      Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD  
       
SDO /AIA( comp.   SDO /AIA(comp.          
                           

SECTION 4 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

                       

TODAY`s EVENTS

remarks: DIFFERENTLY TO MEDIA REPORTS, ALL REPORTS HERE ARE ASSOCIATED TO THEIR REAL EVENT DATE! SCROLL DOWN FOR ALL PREVIOUS DAYS REPORTS! TODAY`S REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER / TOMORROW!  
     

EARTHQUAKES

   

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

Earthquake data as published by NEIC or EMSC  

EARTHQUAKES ABOVE M 6.0

NAME of REGION:

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: MAGNITUDE DEPTH CATHEGORY FIND WITH GOOGLE EARTH:     EXTERNAL SOURCES ( wikipedia a.o.)  
  SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS 24.99 S ; 178.56 E 2012-01-24 00:52 UTC M 6.4 584 km (!!) unknown      
(Europe:M 5:0 and higher)                  

MEDIA REPORTS >

   

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

                       

EVENTS

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL LOCAL SURVEY GOOGLE EARTH WEBCAM

 

  SOURCES:  

DATA

SANGAY 2°0'9"S/ 78°20'27"W JAN- 13- 2012   IGEP SANGAY none      
 

Based on information from pilots and the Guayaquil MWO, an ash plume from Sangay was reported drifting S and SE on 23 January. Ash was not detected in partly-cloudy satellite imagery. On 24 January a hotspot was visible on satellite imagery.

 GVP  

SEVERE WEATHERS/ CLIMATE >

                     

MEDIA REPORTS>

CORONAL HOLE 497 EFFECT?

ARABIC EMIRATES/ No warm news: Cold snap to continue till weekend

Country continues to shiver as Met department records sub-zero temperatures at Jebel Jais area of Ras Al KhaimahThe UAE will wake up to the 'chilling' news that the cold snap that has enveloped the country will continue through the week. The weatherman at the National Centre of Meteorology and Seismology (NCMS) recorded sub-zero temperatures at Jebel Jais area of Ras Al Khaimah and forecast that these conditions are set to continue for the rest of the week...read more...

emirates247.com  

STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

             
  Intensive floodings continue in Australia   /news.ninemsn.com.au  
 

Chance of NT cyclone as monsoon develops

A TROPICAL cyclone could develop off the Northern Territory coast later this week, with a severe weather warning already in place. The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) today predicted heavy rain, damaging winds and abnormally high tides off the north coast as a strengthening monsoon trough develops. There is a moderate chance a cyclone could form tomorrow or Thursday, duty forecaster David Matthews said....read more...

see also: Twin tropical lows could combine to form monster cyclone system

heraldsun.com.au/  
JAN- 24- 2012

TROPICAL STORMS - 
In the Indian Ocean - 
Tropical cyclone 08s (Funso) was located approximately 550 nm northeast of Maputo, Mozambique

globaldisasterwatch.20120123  

 

ATLANTIC BASIN >

No active storms at this time.
No potential storms at this time

PACIFIC BASIN>

No active storms at this time.
No potential storms at this time.

  real time sat images : stormpulse.com  

SPECIAL REPORTS:

                   

 

DATA >

AR 11402 SOLAR STORM JAN- 23- 2012 after 3:05 UTC SEVERE FULLY HALO and EARTH DIRECTZED      

MEDIA REPORTS >

Massive solar eruption to send radiation storm toward Earth

AN immense blast of plasma spewing from the sun is to bombard Earth with the strongest radiation storm since 2005, prompting a rare warning from US weather officials and even a plan to redirect certain high-flying airplanes.The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA) issued a watch for a geomagnetic storm expected to reach our planet tomorrow (AEDT) after a satellite witnessed an ultraviolet flash from Sunday night's massive solar eruption. ...read more...

heraldsun.com.au/20120124  

 

 

 

 

 

                             

YEAR:

2012

 

MONTH:

JANUARY

 

DAY:

23

             

SECTION 1 >

YESTERDAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

solar data by: solen.info      

SECTION 2 >

EXPERIMENTAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST

 
LAST REPORT (previous day) SUNSPOTS: FLARES TODAY`S ALERTS: AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s) 298-441   GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY: ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)    

JAN- 22- 2012

103

class >> C M X X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 4.9

   

2012- JANUARY- 23

   

 

SOLAR FLUX:

FLARES (total)

08

 

 

GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY:

10- 155 nT

  QUIET

5.5- >7.5

2-3

   
 

141

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS: CORONAL MASS EJECTION: QUALITIES UNSETTLED

2012- JANUARY- 24

 
  PLANETARY A INDEX: ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latitude: appr. EARTH FACING ON

SIGNIFICANT FLARES

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH-DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: MINOR STORM

5.5- >7.5

2-3

 

24

  MAJOR STORM

2012- JANUARY- 25

   
 

11401

28° - 42 ° W

17° N

          FLUCTUATIONS

5.5- 6.5

ALERT LEVEL    
CME event Nr.: 07/12 >

11402

22° -36° W

28° N

JAN- 21

LDE/ M1 at 3:05 UTC and M 8.7/ 3:55 UTC 3:10 UTC NORTH/ CANCER PARTIAL HALO JAN- 25    
                    LIKELY EVENT REGIONS > EUROPE AFRICA CNTR AMERICA  
 

11405

10° - 24° W

12° N

JAN- 22

        REMARKS: TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CURRENT CME EFFECTS (traffic light):  
 

11407

40° - 56 ° W

18° N

 

       

IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES:  
 

11408

57°- 43° E

08° N

JAN- 26

             
 

11409

38°- 24° E

17° N

JAN- 25

 

       

TODAY`S CME ALERTS:

   
                  IMPACT BEGIN INT. CME NR.    
         

 

 
         
                  last CME ARRIVAL:      
                  JAN- 22- 2012 06/12 VOLCANO ERUPTIONS MAJOR EARTHQUAKES MOST LIKELY EXPECTABLE ON:    
                    STRENGTH (nanoTesla   RAPIDE MELTDOWNS    
  CORONAL HOLES (CH) NUMBER LATITUDE: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING FADING (OUT)   165 nT   STORMS NEW CME APROACHING!    
        CH 496 appr. 45°- 60° S GROWING JAN- 20- 2011 JAN- 24- 26-2012    

APPROACHING CMEs>>

1

EXPECTED ON:

JAN- 25

INT. NUMBER:

07 /1205/12

 
        CH 495 appr 15- 30° S CLOSED JAN- 16- 2011 JAN 21/ 22-2012 JAN- 23   NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION  

NOTICES>

  geomagnetic storms (G)  

radio blackouts (R)

-- solar radiation storms(S) S 3  
                a    

FILAMENT ACTIVITIES >

REGION EVENT CME AT DURATION /ERUPTION APPR. SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME: EARTH-DIRECTED? ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:   DESCRIPTION/ REMARKS:  
SOLAR STORM around AR 11402 LDE event ( internal Nr 07/12 see below) see below           NASA and NOAA "announced the event as "largest solar storm observed since years" and even issued a warning on this CME . The particle winds of this CME might disturb radio transmission and GPS signals on its arrival estimated on January 25-    
                         

SECTION 3

CME EVENT SECTION:

                     
                           

3.3. GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT

           
EXPLANATIONS>

red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME or CME cluster/ Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./ green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT. Red backcolor marks the peak impact regions. The relatively strongest sesimic activities therefore most likely would occure on the tectonic boundaries between the red and the yellow (backcolored) regions.

related CME ARRIVAL  
IMPACT REPORT to CME Nr 06/12> EURASIA, S-W ASIA. INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES CENTRAL PACIFIC: KAMCHATKA, JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NZ, PNG,. VANUATU,. FIJI WESTERN USA AND EASTERN PACIFIC/ CANADA/ ALASKA/ USA WEST COASTS EASTERN AND CENTRAL AMERICA/ CARIBIC/COLUMBIA,/PERU ENTIRE ATLANTIC/ SOUTHERN AMERICA - EASTERN COAST CENTRAL EUROPE/ AFRICA/ ASIA MINOR

2012/01/22 (Nr. 06/12)

06/12

LONGITUDES>

120° E- 60° E

180° - 120° E

120° W- 180° W

60° W- 120° W

00° W- 60° W

60° E- 00°

   

TIME ZONES ( UTC- day)

UTC-8 /UTC-7/ UTC-6/ UTC-5

UTC+11/ UTC+10/ UTC+9 /UTC+ 8)

UTC-9/ UTC-10/ UTC-11/ UTC-12

UTC-5/ UTC- 6/ UTC- 7/ UTC- 8

UTC-1/ UTC-2/ UTC-3 /UTC-4

UTC-3/ UTC-2/ UTC-1/ GMT

   
                             

3.4. TODAY`s CME EVENTS: :

    OBSERVED TODAY> 01                      
                             

3.1. TODAY`s CMEs

                     

EVENT DESCRIPTION

ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latitude:  

SOLAR ACTIVITY

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME: EARTH-DIRECTED? ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:   DESCRIPTION/ REMARKS: INT CME TRACKING NR.  

NEW eruptive prominence

11402

08° - 22° W

28° N

  LDE/ M1 at 3:05 UTC and M 8.7/ 3:55 UTC Jan- 23- 2012/ 3:10 UTC NORTH/ CANCER PARTIAL HALO JAN- 25   ( by: solen.info) This region (AR 11402) is the source of significant activity early on January 23. First a long duration M1.1 event peaked near 03:05 UTC, an event which may have triggered a major M8.7 long duration event peaking at 03:59 UTC. These events were associated with a huge CME in STEREO imagery and what appears to be a strong proton event. 07/21  
 

.Just after a major CME had arrived on January 22, AR 11402, was the source of another LDE long duration event. AR 11402 and 11401 seem to be the dominant power on the visible sun surface. Again - as on Jan- 19. major filament eruptions- the larger one on Jan- 21 north west of the complex region was followed/ associated to a minor one South of AR 11402 in the equatorial region. All in all it seems that AR 11402 is the energy source of these activities of a good quarter of the visibla Sun disc. The major event- LDE eruption (eruptive prominence) from AR 11402 began on January 23 at 03:10 UTC unleashing a CME soon, while again lots of parallel megnetic loops began to emerge above the eruption center. On SoHo the CME appeared as partial halo. (Others like solen.info interprate it as fully halo)

( further report by: solen.info >>) This region is the source of significant activity early on January 23. First a long duration M1.1 event peaked near 03:05 UTC, an event which may have triggered a major M8.7 long duration event peaking at 03:59 UTC. These events were associated with a huge CME in STEREO imagery and what appears to be a strong proton event.

 
20120123/ 4:55 UTC 20120123/ 5: 24 UTC 20120123/ 04:554 UTC 20120123/ 4:12 UTC 20110121/ 9:42 UTC   20120123/ 03:10 UTC Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD  
   
STEREO "Behind " STEREO "Ahead" SoHO/ LASCO C3 SoHO/ LASCO C2 SDO /AIA( comp.   SDO /AIA(comp.          
                           

SECTION 4 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

                       

TODAY`s EVENTS

remarks: DIFFERENTLY TO MEDIA REPORTS, ALL REPORTS HERE ARE ASSOCIATED TO THEIR REAL EVENT DATE! SCROLL DOWN FOR ALL PREVIOUS DAYS REPORTS! TODAY`S REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER / TOMORROW!  
     

EARTHQUAKES

   

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

Earthquake data as published by NEIC or EMSC  

EARTHQUAKES ABOVE M 6.0

NAME of REGION:

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: MAGNITUDE DEPTH CATHEGORY FIND WITH GOOGLE EARTH:     EXTERNAL SOURCES ( wikipedia a.o.)  
  OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE 36.35 S ; 73.27 W 2012-01-23 16:04 UTC M 6.2 10 km unknown not available    
(Europe:M 5:0 and higher)                  

MEDIA REPORTS >

   

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

                       

EVENTS

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL LOCAL SURVEY GOOGLE EARTH WEBCAM

 

  SOURCES:  

DATA

                   
       GVP  

SEVERE WEATHERS/ CLIMATE >

                     

MEDIA REPORTS >

(SRI LANCA/ INDIA)

Nuwara Eliya torn between extreme weather patterns

Warm days and freezing nights play havoc with the lives of girls, boys, fruits, flowers and veggies. By Mirudhula Thambiah and Shelton Hettiarachchci, Nuwara Eliya Corr.
The unusual drop in temperature in Nuwara Eliya has had widespread repercussions, with people finding it difficult to cope with the extreme weather, damage to crops and drop in water levels. Last Monday (16), the temperature in Nuwara Eliya dropped to 2.7 Celsius accompanied by ground frost. In 2009, the temperature dropped to 2.6 Celsius. Similar temperatures were experienced in 1929 and 1953....read more

.
sundaytimes.lk/20120122  

STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

             
 

Kiwis caught in killer Fiji storm

More than 400 New Zealanders are understood to be in Fiji as the island nation is battered by a deadly storm. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Tourism said last night it had no reason to suspect any Kiwis were in any danger, but urged them to contact the High Commission if they needed help. ...read more...

herald.co.nz7/20120123  
           
 

At least two dead and heavy damage from Alabama tornadoes

At least two are confirmed dead in Alabama after a tornado struck in the early morning of January 23,...read more...

Aerial footage of January the 23, 2012 EF-3 tornado damage

arthsky.org/20120123  
MEDIA REPORTS >

TROPICAL STORMS - 
In the Indian Ocean - 
- Tropical cyclone 08s (Funco) was located approximately 610 nm northeast of Maputo, Mozambique.
-Tropical cyclone 07s (Ethel) was located approximately 635 nm southeast of Port Louis. Now a cold core cyclone, the system is forecast to continue accelerating and weakening as it recurves into the mid-latitudes. This is the final warning on this system by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The system will be closely monitored for signs of regeneration.

globaldisasterwatch./20120123  

 

ATLANTIC BASIN >

No active storms at this time.
No potential storms at this time

PACIFIC BASIN>

No active storms at this time.
No potential storms at this time.

  real time sat: stormpulse.com  
o                    

 

MEDIA REPORTS >

You find the previous reports of this month in my archive for JANUARY 2012

   
g

 

 

 

                             

YEAR:

2012

 

MONTH:

JANUARY

 

DAY:

22

             

SECTION 1 >

YESTERDAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

solar data by: solen.info      

SECTION 2 >

EXPERIMENTAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST

 
LAST REPORT (previous day) SUNSPOTS: FLARES TODAY`S ALERTS: AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

287-319

      ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  

JAN- 21- 2012

102

class >> C M X X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 4.9

  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY:

2012- JANUARY- 22

 

 

SOLAR FLUX:

FLARES (total)

03

 

 

GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY:

30- 140 nT

  QUIET 5.5- 7.0 ALERT LEVEL  
 

141

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS: CORONAL MASS EJECTION: QUALITIES UNSETTLED

2012- JANUARY- 23

  PLANETARY A INDEX: ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latitude: appr. EARTH FACING ON

SIGNIFICANT FLARES

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH-DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: MINOR STORM

5.5- >7.5

2-3

 

06

  MAJOR STORM

2012- JANUARY- 24

 
 

11401

13° - 27 ° W

17° N

          FLUCTUATIONS

5.5- >7.5

2-3

 
 

11402

08° - 22° W

28° N

JAN- 21

        REMARKS: TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
       

 

         

IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES:
 

11405

03° E- 11° W

12° N

JAN- 22

           
       

 

         

CME ALERTS:

   
 

11407

26° - 40 ° W

18° N

 

          ARRIVALS TODAY: IMPACT BEGIN:  
       

 

 

        ARRIVED: 06/12 11:00 UTC  
NEWLY EMERGED>

11408

70°- 56° E

08° N

JAN- 26

        last CME ARRIVAL:    
NEWLY EMERGED>

11409

52°- 38° E

17° N

JAN- 25

 

 
  JAN- 21- 2012   VOLCANO ERUPTIONS PROBABLE REGIONS:  
                    STRENGTH (nanoTesla   RAPIDE MELTDOWNS TECTONIC BOUNDARUIES WEST AND EAST OF 90° W longitude (see below)  
  CORONAL HOLES (CH) NUMBER LATITUDE: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING FADING (OUT)   145 nT   STORMS  
        CH 496 appr. 45°- 60° S GROWING JAN- 20- 2011 JAN- 24- 26-2012    

APPROACHING CMEs>>

0

EXPECTED ON:

 

INT. NUMBER:

5/12

 
        CH 495 appr 15- 30° S GROWING JAN- 16- 2011 JAN 21/ 22-2012     NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION / last 24 hours:  

NOTICES>

  geomagnetic storms (G)  

radio blackouts (R)

-- solar radiation storms(S) --  
                a    
                         

SECTION 3

CME EVENT SECTION:

                     
                           

3.2. TODAY`s CME ARRIVALS (internal CME tracking)

                         

 

CME DATA (SOLAR) CME ARRIVAL DATA (EARTH)  

INTERNAL CME tracking Nr.

06/12

AR LONG LAT. DATE

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: REMARKS PEAK VALUES ON ACE ( duration) GOES FIRST IMPACT time/ longitude   time/ longitudes/ values> 100 nT *internal relative mass value* main impact region (geographic)* GOES peak peak value ( magnetic density (nanoTesla)* intern. Nr  

11401

14° - 00 ° E

17° N

JAN- 19 16:05 UTC M3.2/2N MEDIUM STRONG CME IMPACT! Values increased strongly after 7:00 UTC JAN- 22 FULL IMPACT after 11:00 UTC  

12 UTC until 20 UTC

(00° - 135° CENTRAL EUROPE >>CANADA/ NZL/ VANUATU

220

UTC- 3 >>UTC- 6 (45° - 90° W/ ATLANTIC OCEAN > CENTRAL USA

15:30 UTC ( appr 50° W) 155 nT 06/12  
               

* test value

  * GOEShp      
             

3.3. GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT

           
EXPLANATIONS>

red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME or CME cluster/ Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./ green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT. Red backcolor marks the peak impact regions. The relatively strongest sesimic activities therefore most likely would occure on the tectonic boundaries between the red and the yellow (backcolored) regions.

related CME ARRIVAL  
IMPACT REPORT to CME Nr 06/12> EURASIA, S-W ASIA. INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES CENTRAL PACIFIC: KAMCHATKA, JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NZ, PNG,. VANUATU,. FIJI WESTERN USA AND EASTERN PACIFIC/ CANADA/ ALASKA/ USA WEST COASTS EASTERN AND CENTRAL AMERICA/ CARIBIC/COLUMBIA,/PERU ENTIRE ATLANTIC/ SOUTHERN AMERICA - EASTERN COAST CENTRAL EUROPE/ AFRICA/ ASIA MINOR

2012/01/22

06/12
GEOGRAPHIC REGIONs/ COUNTRIES (CME NR 05/12) EURASIA, S-W ASIA. INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES CENTRAL PACIFIC: KAMCHATKA, JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NZ, PNG,. VANUATU,. FIJI WESTERN USA AND EASTERN PACIFIC/ CANADA/ ALASKA/ USA WEST COASTS EASTERN AND CENTRAL AMERICA/ CARIBIC/COLUMBIA,/PERU ENTIRE ATLANTIC/ SOUTHERN AMERICA - EASTERN COAST CENTRAL EUROPE/ AFRICA/ ASIA MINOR

2012/01/21

05/12

LONGITUDES>

120° E- 60° E

180° - 120° E

120° W- 180° W

60° W- 120° W

00° W- 60° W

60° E- 00°

   

TIME ZONES ( UTC- day)

UTC-8 /UTC-7/ UTC-6/ UTC-5

UTC+11/ UTC+10/ UTC+9 /UTC+ 8)

UTC-9/ UTC-10/ UTC-11/ UTC-12

UTC-5/ UTC- 6/ UTC- 7/ UTC- 8

UTC-1/ UTC-2/ UTC-3 /UTC-4

UTC-3/ UTC-2/ UTC-1/ GMT

   
                             

SECTION 4 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

                       

TODAY`s EVENTS

     
  MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL POSSIBLY FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY!  

EARTHQUAKES

   

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

Earthquake data as published by NEIC or EMSC  

EARTHQUAKES ABOVE M 6.0

NAME of REGION:

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: MAGNITUDE DEPTH CATHEGORY FIND WITH GOOGLE EARTH: EXTERNAL SOURCES ( wikipedia a.o.)  
  SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION 56.71 S ; 25.05 W 2012-01-22 05:53 UTC M 6.0 - 33 km unknown not available    
(Europe:M 5:0 and higher)                  

MEDIA REPORTS >

   

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

                       

EVENTS

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL LOCAL SURVEY GOOGLE EARTH WEBCAM

SOURCES:

 

DATA

               
     GVP  

MEDIA REPORTS >

   

STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

             

SPECIAL EVENTS

REGION

EVENT TYPE

DATE AND UTC- TIME: STRENGTH DIRECTION CATHEGORY

SOURCES:

 

DATA>

GERMANY - and in other parts of WESTERN EUROPE

MEDIUM THUNDER STORMS BLZZARD JANUARY- 21- 22- 2012 medium     real time sat: stormpulse.com  
 

Cyclone Funso kills 12 in Mozambique

At least 12 people have been killed and thousands displaced when cyclone Funso hit central Mozambique at the weekend, state television said Monday.The deaths occurred in five districts in Zambezia" province, Mozambique Television said, citing the National Disaster Management Institute....read more..

.imeslive.co.za/20120123  
MEDIA REPORTS >

Tornadoes strike Arkansas as storms menace south

(Reuters) - Twisters downed trees and powerlines in Arkansas leaving thousands without power late Sunday, as forecasters warned that tornadoes and heavy storms could mete out damage to several southeast states into Monday. A tornado tore into an area outside of Fordyce, some 70 miles south of state capital Little Rock at around 8:00 p.m. local time, damaging houses and felling trees and power lines as it moved, according to Accuweather.com....read more...

reuters.com/20120123  
 

Cyclone-strength winds rock Queensland town

CYCLONE-strength wind gusts have battered a remote north Queensland township, damaging several homes. A Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) spokesman says gusts of 170km/h and 70mm of rain lashed Hughenden, about 400 kilometres west of Townsville, yesterday. "We had a few wind gusts, but that was easily the strongest of all of them," the BOM spokesman told AAP...read more...

heraldsun.com.au/20120123  

JAN- 22- 2012

INDIAN OCEAN

Tropical cyclone 08s (Funso) was located approximately 565 nm north-northeast of Maputo, Mozambique.
- Tropical cyclone 07s (Ethel) was located approximately 475 nm southeast of Port Louis.

globaldisasterwatch.blogspot.com  

 

ATLANTIC BASIN >

No active storms at this time.
No potential storms at this time

PACIFIC BASIN>

No active storms at this time.
No potential storms at this time.

.by/..more.. at: stormpulse.com  

GEOMAGENTISM

REGION

EVENT TYPE

DATE AND UTC- TIME: STRENGTH DIRECTION CATHEGORY

SOURCES:

 
 

Stranded whales die in Golden Bay

Twenty-two of the 99 long-finned pilot whales stranded at Farewell Spit in Golden Bay today have died. The whales were seen milling close to the shore around lunchtime and grounded on a receding tide at the stranding site which is seven kilometres up the Spit. Around 50 Project Jonah volunteers and Department of Conservation staff are helping keep the stranded whales alive as night falls and efforts to save them are put on hold ...read more...

tvnz.co.nz/20121123  
MEDIA REPORTS >

I am sure. Whales were again confused by the geomagnetic storm after the CME impact today!!

I already compared some recent cases of whale beachings, but had no time yet to grab on elder cases. Would be not difficult when just using GOEShp geomagnetometer data and compare them with recent reports of whale strandings.

Other evidence At all and furtunately human beloved dolphins seem to be a little bit more clever, but since ever more cases of stranded whales also were reported since the Sun activity comes towards its 11 years maximum in 2012. I would be pretty shure that all these cases would have in common , that the Earth geomagnetic field was in a state of minor to major storming during these events!

However another estimated 100 "grind whales" stranded at the coast of News Zealand on January 22, just during a medium strong CME impacted on Earth what caused an immidiate geomagnetic storming soon after 7:00 in the morning that continued all day until around 6:00 UTC on the morning of January 23.

Geomagnetic report by solen.info on January 23- 2012 (taking in account all reports by NOAA and other institutes:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on January 22. Solar wind speed ranged between 298 and 441 km/s. A strong solar wind shock was observed at ACE at 05:14 UTC, the arrival of the CME observed on January 19. The interplanetary magnetic field was strongly southwards during two intervals. The disturbance peaked during the 19-22h UTC interval when the planetary A index reached 67.

 
 

 

 

 

                             

YEAR:

2012

 

MONTH:

JANUARY

 

DAY:

21

             

SECTION 1 >

YESTERDAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

solar data by: solen.info      

SECTION 2 >

EXPERIMENTAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST

 
LAST REPORT (previous day) SUNSPOTS: FLARES TODAY`S ALERTS: AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

284-374

      ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  

JAN- 20- 2012

77

class >> C M X X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 6.0

  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY:

2012- JANUARY- 21

 

 

SOLAR FLUX:

FLARES (total)

02

 

 

GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY:

49- 112 nT

  QUIET 5.5- 6.0 1  
 

141

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS: CORONAL MASS EJECTION: QUALITIES UNSETTLED

2012- JANUARY- 22

  PLANETARY A INDEX: ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latitude: appr. EARTH FACING ON

SIGNIFICANT FLARES

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH-DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: MINOR STORM 5.5- 6.5 1- 2
 

04

  MAJOR STORM

2012- JANUARY- 23

 
                  FLUCTUATIONS

5.5- 7.0

2-3

 
 

11399

12° - 24° W

23° E

          REMARKS: TODAY`s MOST PROBABLE CME EFFECTS (traffic light):
 

11401

01° - 15 ° W

17° N

           

IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:* EARTHQUAKES:
 

11402

04° E- 10° W

28° N

JAN- 21

           
 

11403

35°- 49° W

18° S

 

         

CME ALERTS:

   
 

11405

16°- 02° E

12° N

JAN- 22

          ARRIVALS TODAY:    
       

 

 

        ARRIVING: 1 (Nr.: 5/12)  
 

11407

13° - 27 ° W

18° N

          last CME ARRIVAL:    
NEWLY EMERGED>      

 

 

 
  JAN- 15- 2012   VOLCANO ERUPTIONS PROBABLE REGIONS:  
                    STRENGTH (nanoTesla   RAPIDE MELTDOWNS 165° W ( WEST COAST USA/ ALASKA- JAPAN- INDONESIA)  
  CORONAL HOLES (CH) NUMBER LATITUDE: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING FADING (OUT)   145 nT   STORMS  
        CH 496 appr. 45°- 60° S GROWING JAN- 20- 2011 JAN- 24- 26-2012    

APPROACHING CMEs>>

2

EXPECTED ON:

JAN-21- 22

INT. NUMBER:

5/ 06 /1205/12

 
        CH 495 appr 15- 30° S RECURRENT JAN- 16- 2011 JAN 21/ 22-2012     NOAA/ SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION / last 24 hours:  

NOTICES>

  geomagnetic storms (G)  

radio blackouts (R)

-- solar radiation storms(S) --  
                a    

SECTION 3

CME EVENT SECTION:

                     

3.1. APPROACHING CMEs

                     

EVENT DESCRIPTION

REGION EVENT CME AT DURATION /ERUPTION APPR. SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME: EARTH-DIRECTED? ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:   DESCRIPTION/ REMARKS: INT CME TRACKING NR.  

NEW eruptive prominence

AR 11402 (28°- 14° E/ 28° N) M3.2/2N long duration event   JAN- 19 eruptive prominence begin: 15:58 UTC- appr. 17: 30 UTC! appr 45 ° NORTH/ GEMINI FULL HALO JAN- 21-22   ( by: solen.info) A full halo CME was observed after the M3.2 LDE in region 11402. The CME will likely reach Earth on January 21 and could cause active to major storm conditions (strong southward IMF fluctuations are possible taking into consideration the magnetic layout and intensity in the area where the eruption occurred). 06/21  
                           

3.2. TODAY`s CME ARRIVALS (internal CME tracking)

                         

 

CME DATA ( SOLAR) CME ARRIVAL DATA ( EARTH)  

INTERNAL CME tracking Nr.

05/12

REGION EVENT

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- ASS. WITH CME: REMARKS VALUES ON ACE ( duration) GOES FIRST IMPACT time/ longitude   time/ longitudes/ values> 100 nT *internal relative mass value* main impact region (geographic)* GOES peak peak value ( magnetic density (nanoTesla)* intern. Nr  
Southern hemisphere/ Central meridian eruptive prominence (AR 11399?)and later filament eruption Jan- 18- 2012- some time around 13: 28 UTC long lasting STRONG event ( until Jan- 19) CME arrived on Jan 21 (ongoing) peak values: 11 UTC- JAN- 21- 2011/ 02 UTC  

13:00 UTC- 21 UTC longitudes :

15° W- 135 ° W

120 CENTRAL & WESTERN ATLANTIC GREENLAND, BRASIL

130 nT at 15 UTC

130 nT 05/12  
               

* test value

  * GOEShp      
             

3.3. GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT

           
EXPLANATIONS>

red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME or CME cluster/ Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./ green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT. Red backcolor marks the peak impact regions. The relatively strongest sesimic activities therefore most likely would occure on the tectonic boundaries between the red and the yellow (backcolored) regions.

related CME ARRIVAL  

GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS/ countries >

EURASIA, S-W ASIA. INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES CENTRAL PACIFIC: KAMCHATKA, JAPAN- AUSTRALIA, NZ, PNG,. VANUATU,. FIJI WESTERN USA AND EASTERN PACIFIC/ CANADA/ ALASKA/ USA WEST COASTS EASTERN AND CENTRAL AMERICA/ CARIBIC/COLUMBIA,/PERU ENTIRE ATLANTIC/ SOUTHERN AMERICA - EASTERN COAST CENTRAL EUROPE/ AFRICA/ ASIA MINOR

2012/01/21

 

LONGITUDES>

120° E- 60° E

180° - 120° E

120° W- 180° W

60° W- 120° W

00° W- 60° W

60° E- 00°

internal event number:  

TIME ZONES ( UTC- day)

UTC-8 /UTC-7/ UTC-6/ UTC-5

UTC+11/ UTC+10/ UTC+9 /UTC+ 8)

UTC-9/ UTC-10/ UTC-11/ UTC-12

UTC-5/ UTC- 6/ UTC- 7/ UTC- 8

UTC-1/ UTC-2/ UTC-3 /UTC-4

UTC-3/ UTC-2/ UTC-1/ GMT

05 /12

 
                           

3.4. TODAY`s CME EVENTS: :

    OBSERVED TODAY>                        
 

A minor eruptions was observed on January 21., that took place on the North- Western quadrant. Both- STEREO and SoHO- suffered transmission gaps during the event . However- the minor CME seems not to have any Earth directed parts.

 
  20120121/ 12:09 UTC 20120121/ 12: 54 UTC         Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD  
           
STEREO "Behind " STEREO "Ahead" SoHO/ LASCO C3 SoHO/ LASCO C2 SDO /AIA( comp.   SDO /AIA(comp.          
                           

TODAY`s EVENTS

     
  MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL POSSIBLY FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY!  

EARTHQUAKES

   

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

Earthquake data as published by NEIC or EMSC  

EARTHQUAKES ABOVE M 6.0

NAME of REGION:

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: MAGNITUDE DEPTH CATHEGORY FIND WITH GOOGLE EARTH: EXTERNAL SOURCES ( wikipedia a.o.)  
  OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO 14.99 N ; 93.09 W 2012-01-21 18:47 UTC M 6.2 60 km unknown not available    
(Europe:M 5:0 and higher)                  

MEDIA REPORTS >

Mexico earthquake in Chiapas shakes region

A 6.2-magnitude earthquake has hit the southern Mexican state of Chiapas, shattering windows and sending frightened residents into the streets. The quake struck in the Pacific Ocean about 35 miles (55km) south-west of the city of Mapastepec, near Mexico's border with Guatemala....read more...

bbc.co.uk/20120121  

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

                       

EVENTS

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL LOCAL SURVEY GOOGLE EARTH WEBCAM

SOURCES:

 

DATA

               
     GVP  

STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

             
 

Tropical Storm Dando kills 5

An estimated five lives were lost, while thousands more have been severely affected by the first tropical storm to hit southern Mozambique since 1984.
Tropical storm Dando hit the region on Sunday leaving behind destruction and flooding. 
It has since dissipated.  ...read more...

eyewitnessnews.co.za/ date?/ incl video source  
MEDIA REPORTS >

Tropical Cyclone Funso Threatens Southeast Africa

A tropical cyclone in the Mozambique Channel will menace the southeastern coast of Africa with potentially damaging winds and flooding rain this weekend and heading into next week. Tropical Cyclone Funso is currently within 75 miles of the Mozambique coastline. The compact system is displaying a well-defined low-level circulation, and has sustained winds of over 105 mph. ...read more...

accuweather.com/20120121  

JAN- 21- 2012` >>

ATLANTIC BASIN >

No active storms at this time.
No potential storms at this time

PACIFIC BASIN>

No active storms at this time.
No potential storms at this time.

.by/..more.. at: stormpulse.com  

DISASTERS

                       
FUKUSHIMA/ JAPAN

New video of Fukushima nuclear reactor interior

The first footage from inside one of Japan's tsunami-hit nuclear reactors at Fukushima has been released by the stricken plant's operator. Tokyo Electric Power Company (Tepco) inserted an endoscope camera in Number 2 reactor to examine the interior. Thursday's probe aimed to get details such as the true level of cooling water and temperature inside the vessel. The six-reactor Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant...read more...

bbc.co.uk/ 20120120- including video source  
ISLAND GRIGLIO/ ITALY>

Costa Concordia disaster: Cruise firm faces US lawsuit

The company operating a cruise ship that ran aground off Italy is facing a class-action lawsuit in the US. Italy's consumer association Codacons and two US law firms told the BBC they would file the suit against Costa Cruises on behalf of the passengers. They want at least $160,000 (£105,000) for each passenger on the ship....read more...

bbc.co.uk  
 

 

 

 

                             

YEAR:

2012

 

MONTH:

JANUARY

 

DAY:

20

             

SECTION 1 >

YESTERDAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

solar data by: solen.info      

SECTION 2 >

EXPERIMENTAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST

 
LAST REPORT (previous day) SUNSPOTS: FLARES TODAY`S ALERTS: AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

330-377

      ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  

JAN- 19- 2012

117

class >> C M X X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 5.9

  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY:

2012- JANUARY- 20

 

 

SOLAR FLUX:

FLARES (total)

03

01

 

GEOMAG. FIELD DENSITY:

40- 105 nT

  QUIET 5.5- 6.0 1  
 

150

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS: CORONAL MASS EJECTION: QUALITIES UNSETTLED

2012- JANUARY- 21

  PLANETARY A INDEX: ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY (longitude)

latitude: appr. EARTH FACING ON

SIGNIFICANT FLARES

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

EARTH-DIRECTED?

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL: MINOR STORM 5.5- 6.0 1
 

03

  MAJOR STORM

2012- JANUARY- 22

 
solen.info