-----------------------

 

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alien- homepage.de- Earth quake statistics- -SUN SPOT ACTIVITY- 11- years solar cycle- last update: MAY- 24 - 2012- -07:00 UTC copyright: reserved

background image: Aurora Borealis /COMMONS / wikipedia
open source earthquake forecast project created and provided by: alien-homepage.de-

 

 

2012/ 13 - MAXIMUM OF 11- YEAR SOLAR CYCLE

SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG

ARCHIVE
MAY - 2012

 

NASA STEREO BEACON

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PAGES RELATED TO THIS SOLAR/TERRESTRIAL PROJECT>
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SOHO REALTIME current view on the Sun
SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG/ ARCHIVES:

(SUN SPOTS EARTHQUAKE AND VOLCANISM/ ARCHIVE- 2011:)click on the month symbols to get to the specific pages of 2011:

2012 >
MAY            
2011 >
2010 >
NOTE: I WILL APPLY A NEW ARCHIVE SYSTEM IN 2012. CLICK ON THE BUTTON (right) FOR THE NEW ARCHIVE DIRECTORY! >

Note: Due to the high data amount in these monthly archives, I am currently trying to improve this by putting the single archives into collapsible panels.

Also I will split the monthly archive into 4 weekly ones. click on th following tabs to open the collapsible panels. You can report to my blog, if you should still experience problems when loading this page.

click here to open panel with related links and Earthquake statistic MAY 2012
   

True and REAL TIME graphic solution, that makes obvious the coincidences of CME impacts and extraordinary natural phenomenons such as heavier Earthquakes, volcano eruptions, hurricanes. sudden ice meltdowns (floddings) and others

( click on the graphic top to enlarge it):

INTERNAL MAPS: click on the images or links below to get to my large regional maps, where you find all volcanoes around the world with descriptions , webcams and much more such as ancients sites! . Weekly regular activity updates, special earthquakes events with many functions

world volcano map 1.0

world volcano map version 2.0

Europe and Western Asia Africa and Arabic peninsula Central America and Mexico South America- Northern part South America- Southern part Central America and Mexico Northern America Kamchatka peninsula Japan region Indonesia and Philippines Australia and Southern Pacific

- incident graphic will be completed at the end of the month-

SPACECRAFTS:
SoHO
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
SDO /AIA
Solar Dynamics Observatory
STEREO
Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory
GOES
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites

ACE

 
Advanced Composition Explorer

^^ internal Earthquake statistics- with Sun activity curves : green = SUNSPOT NUMBER, Pink= SOLAR FLUX, blue= PLANETARY A INDEX

click here to see some of the paradox observations made during that solar cycle first possibly by observatory sopacecrafts: : CORONAL HOLES THOSE REAPPEAR DURING SEVERAL SOLAR ROTATION PERIODS ON THE SAME HELIOGRAPHIC POSITION

CME ARRIVALS (EARTH(

MAY- 09- 12: SOME MINOR CME PORTIONS FROM ACTIVITIES IN AR 11476 ARRIVED ON MAY- 12

 
MAY- 08- 2012- WARNING! AN EXTRAORDINARY STRONG CORONAL MASS EJECTION ( CME) HAS ARRIVED TODAY ON EARTH!

REMARKS:

THE SOLAR ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY DECREASED ON MAY 13 to LEVEL ONE (QUIET)

CME ERUPTIONS (SUN)

A stronger- probably fully HALO CME was observed during a LDE filament eruption and associated prominences in the regions of AR 11476 and 11480 on May 11 at 23: 54. This CME is likely to arrive on May 13- 14 and might be geoeffective ( SEE FORECAST BELOW)

 

IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS>

as described below

EASTERN USA -CENTRAL. & SOUTH AMERICA/ CARIBBEAN/ /COLUMBIA,/PERU: SECONDARY: EUROPE/ AFRICA- WEST- ATLANTIC
 

EARTHQUAKES >

/estimated) MAJOR EARTHQUAKES WITH MAGNITUDES ABOVE M 7.0- 7.5 ARE LIKELY TO FOLLOW FROM>>

( 1 day +/-) , respecting LATENCY EFFECTS DURING MULTIPLE CME EFFECTS (LATENCY ESTIMATED AS TO NOT EXACTLY MEASUREABLE )

MAY 13- 14/ MAY 15- 17 - +/- 1- 2 days

 

most probable LOCATIONS >

ABOUT THE LOCATION OF EXPECTABLE EARTHQUAKES is ( due to my statistic data about COINCIDENCES of CME IMPACTS and EARTHQUAKE REGIONS) :

-ENTIRE CENTRAL AMERICA- MAINLY THE CARRIBEAN AND COCOS PLATE-

PRIMARY REGIONS: ALL WESTERN COASTAL REGIONS OF SOUTH AND NORTH- AMERICA TO THE PACIFIC PLATE-

SECONDARY: EUROPA& AFRICA WEST >< ATLANTIC & AMERICAS EAST

-

 
       

 

 

 

VIDEOS/ REPORTS OF THE WEEK- MAY 2012:

VIDEOS/ REPORTS OF THE WEEK- MAY _ 2012:

 

The submarine eruption of El Hierro Island (Canary Islands)

VIDEO ( May- 09- 2012) by: / DESGASIFICACION VOLCAN L2 5 12 A (DEGASSING AT NEW EL HIERRO submarine volcano/ Islas canarias

read also: elder report by: volcanodiscovery: The authorities have decided to declare the eruption ended and shut down the web cameras at La Restinga and stop active monitoring of what could still be going on at the sea floor south of La Restinga. 
...read more...

 
 

 

 
  ° MAY- 21- 2012: Interplanetary Shock Wave and Solar Eclipse (May 20th, 2012).   
 

 
  Deadly & Destructive: More video of quake-hit Italy (MAY- 19- 2012)  
     
     
     
     
           
 

 

click here to open and close collapsible panel: archive of solar and terrestrial blog/ MAY 01- 07- 2012
Inhalt / eruptive proinence / eruptive proinence / eruptive proinence

 

 

 

 

                     

2012

MONTH:

MAY

 

DAY:

07

   

TERRESTRIAL

 
               

SECTION 1 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

                   
                           

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!
  EXTERNAL SOURCES:  

EARTHQUAKES:

            EMSC NEIC  

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.7 - AZERBAIJAN - 2012-05-07 04:40 UTC        

EARTHQUAKES TODAY

MEDIA*:

NAME of REGION

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME

MAGNITUDE

DEPTH

CATHEGORY

MAP

GOOGLE EARTH:

 
AZERBAIJAN 41.50 N ; 46.67 E 2012-05-07 04:40 UTC M 5.7 10 km unknown   ---  

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

                    EMSC  
EARTHQUAKES/MEXICO/ MAY 07- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O: 01 HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.1 - OAXACA, MEXICO - 2012-05-07 05:25 UTC  
AFTER QUAKES/ AZERBAIJAN MAY 07- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O:

27

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 5.5 - AZERBAIJAN - 2012-05-07 14:15 UTC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ EASTERN TURKEY( near city of Van) MAY 07- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O: 06 HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.4 - EASTERN TURKEY - 2012-05-07 21:37 UTC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ WESTERN TURKEY MAY 07- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O: 19 HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.4 - WESTERN TURKEY - 2012-05-07 05:48 UTC  
                     

STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

no tropical storm reported so far...

click here for today s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com  

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: DIRECTION WIND SPEED: COORDINATES GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ COURSE /RMARKS   MEDIA REPORTS  
wunderground.com Tropical Cyclone Nineteen APR- 06

SSE

40 MP/H 127.7° E 6.2° S SOUTHERN SUNDRA ISLANDS (INDONESIA/ PNG.)   currently: none  
SUDDEN GLACIAL MELTDOWNS?                   20120507 report by: nationalgeographic  

Red Alert: Flooding in the Peruvian Amazon

Though writer Robert Earle Howells adds greater fuel to our wanderlust fires with his round-up of five Peruvian jungle lodges in National Geographic Traveler’s new issue, now’s unfortunately not the time to visit the Amazon Basin. Super-floods continue to inundate the region — a situation that has been underreported in the English-language U.S. media so far — putting the communities there at risk. Experts speculate that a perfect storm of long summer rains in the Andes combined with greater-than-normal glacial melt has caused the flooding....read more...

 
                             
                               
             

 

NOTICES: Since End of April, HIGH ERUPTIVE SUN ACTIVITY CREATED SEVERAL SMALLER CME each day. Portions of these CME arriving on Earth increase geomagnetic energy: Moderate immidiate CME effects including magmatic (volcanic) quake activities (tremors) will continue, while subsequent larger Earthquake will follow with the LATENCY when the Sun activity will decrease and tectonic plates will begin to cool down and contract again. ( Friction)

 
                 

SEKTION 2/ 3 (RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

     
               
  LAST FORECAST RELATED EVENT >>

CME - NR 38/ 12 (1)

MAY- 07- 2012

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

  "LATENCY"= EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDES ARE POSSIBLE BUT RATHER UNLIKELY  
ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES-

"B"- "E"

LOW- MEDIUM

A >< B >< C   ALERT LEVEL ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  
 

MAJOR SUDDEN STORMS

150° E ><180° >< 150° W < VOLCANISM/ QUAKES > 150° E ><180° >< 150° W      

WARM

HOT

DRY

PACIFIC-US COAST/WEST

< GEOGRAPHIC >

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF  

07 MAY- 2012

 

SUDDEN (ALPINE) MELTING

JAPAN, KAMCHATKA,

These forcasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

JAPAN/ WEST PACIFIC  

M 5.5-> 7.0

CME ARRIVAL!  

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

EUROPE/ WEST CENTRAL/ S- AMERICA  

08 MAY- 2012

 

ELECTROMAGNETIC EFFECTS

SECONDARY REGIONS :

SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5-> 7.0

CME ARRIVAL?  

RADIO BLACKOUTS

INDONESIA INDONESIA  

09 MAY- 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS

E- EUROPE/ ASIA MINOR E- EUROPE/ ASIA MINOR  

M 5.5-> 7.0

CME ARRIVAL?  
        *REGIONS> see definition below    

EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITY EXPECTABLE TO BE LOW (LATENCY), MAJOR QUAKES POSSIBLE.-

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:

TODAY`s CME ARRIVALS (UTC) :

  NEW: OVERALL SOLAR ACTIVITY >> : HIGH << (SOLAR ERUPTIONS)  
    NUMBER ACE (Mag) GOEShp   DESCRIPTION: MULTIPLE EVENTS- MAINLY PROMINENCES  

QUIET

  38/12 (1) 9:50 UTC 10:30 UTC      

UNSETTLED

  ONGOING MINOR CME IMPACTS   NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:  

MINOR STORM

 

APPROACHING CMEs:

 

ALERTS:

CURRENT

LAST 24 h

REPORT/LINK

 

MAJOR STORM

  NUMBER ARRIVAL* STRENGTH*  

ELECTRON STORM

NONE

NONE

NASA/ GOES 15

 
    38/12 MAY 7-8 MEDIUM  

SOLAR STORMS:

NON

NONE

   

REMARKS:

    39/12 MAY 09-10 MEDIUM   S. RADIATION STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 

.

DATE:

LATEST CME ARRIVAL:

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 
20120505 37/12 125 nT   RADIO BLACKOUTS

NONE

R1

 

 
    * ESTIMATED    

see also >

spaceweather.com  

SATELLITE IMAGES

May- 07 2012 note: not all sat images might be displayed! If so- refresh th side or click in the direct link above!  

note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

ACTIVE REGION:

CME at:

20120507/ 05:09 UTC 20120507/ 01:28 UTC 20120507/ 07:27 20120507/ 08:28 UTC  

SPACE FOR REMARKS OR VIDEO SOURCES

 

11471/74/76

MULTIPLE

     
TRACKING NUMBER

39/12

 

<< The high activity on the visible sun side continues now for more than one week with at least one minor or partially Earth directed CMEs per day. May 07 began with a C6 LDE event in AR 11471, that unleashed a significant partially Earth directed CME after 01:28 UTC (2) .Another impulsive flare in AR 11476 at 07:27 (3) was followed by a magnetic filament eruption around AR 11474 (4) and a minor prominence in AR 11471 Thecombined last event was measured on GOES along with a C2 class x-ray burst after 9:00 UTC. SoHo has a malefunction since May 04.

 

SUN COORDINATES:

   

NORTH EAST and S/W quadrant

     

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

   
E. FLARE/ FILAMENT/ PROMINENCE C2- C6    

SIDERIC DIRECTION:

VIR/ SC (1) STEREO- Ahead " (2) SDO /AIA comp. (3) SDO /AIA comp. (4) SDO /AIA comp.      

ARRIVAL (estimated):

MAY- 09-10

please note: sorry- Images of STEREO SPACECRAFT CAN NOT BE IMPLEMENTED, as STEREO operators archive incoming images later under a different URLs. Click on link: STEREO- Ahead "instead to view images on your own !

     
*                          

CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS/ARRIVALS

CME TRACKING >

 

ARRIVAL AT SAT

 

IMPACT >

         

TRACKING NR.:

38/12(1)

SOLAR EVENT DATA

CME EVENT

APPROACHING >

ACE

GOES

 

20120507

< IMPACT > CME ARRIVAL DATA (EARTH)  
MINOR CMESs/ MAY 04- 05 AR LONG LAT. DATE

EVENT DESCRIPTION

ARRIVAL

ARRIVAL  

> 100 nT

MAIN PEAK VALUE EST. MASS* MAIN IMPACT REGIONS  
SUMMARY OF MULTIPLE EVENTS in:

11469/S1611

64° - 78 ° W

20° S

MAY 04- 23:56 PROMINENCE APR- 07/10:40 APR- 07/ 11:30 UTC   09:30- 02:00 (MAY-08) 14/ 22:00UTC 130 nT 240 CENTRAL EUROPE  
11471                       USA/WEST >> JAPAN  

 

DURATION:       45°E- 150° E SECONDARY IMPACT REGIONS> CNTR. AM/ INDONESIA  
*                          
* DAY TIME: UTC DAY                          

3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT

 
EXPLANATIONS>

Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.

Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./ Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME or CME cluster/  
HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST> INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions! STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER CME IMPACT (LATENCY!) on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES between the RED and the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Minor ones between the yellow and green regions  

REGIONS

REGION "A"

REGION "B"

REGION "C"

REGION "D"

REGION "E"

REGION "F"

related CME  
REGIONS COVERED BY LATEST CME IMPACT> EASTERN EURASIA- CHINA- JAPAN- PHILIPPINES- INDONESIA- AUSTRALIA CENTRAL/ EAST ALASKA - KAMCHATKA- JAPAN/EAST- AUSTRALIA/ (WEST)- NZ, PNG.- FIJI- CENTRAL- USA+ WEST COAST- EASTERN PACIFIC- CANADA- EASTERN USA- SOUTH AMERICA/ CARIBBEAN/ /COLUMBIA,/PERU CENTRAL EUROPE/ AFRICA, WEST ATLANTIC WEST - SOUTH AMERICA/ EAST INDIA & INDIAN OCEAN- AFRICA (EAST), ARABIA ASIA MINOR

ARRIVAL:

 
RELATED TECTONIC BOUNDARIES> PACIFIC< EURASIA>< INDO-AUSTRALIA NORTH AMERICA (W) >< EURASIA (E) ><PACIFIC (E) NORTH AMERICA/ incl. Microplates ><PACIFIC AFRICA >< CARRIBEAN >< SOUTH AMERIA >< NASCA>< COCOS EURASIA <> N-AMERICA/WESTCARRIBEAN ><AFRICA EURASIA><ARABIA ><INDO-AUSTRALIA    
UTC TIME ZONES > .. ....... ... ... ...... .. CME Nr.:  

LONGITUDES>

120° E- 90° E

135° E- 180° - 135° W

90° W- 135° W

45° W- 90° W

45° W - 00° W- 45° E

45° E- 90° E

38/12 (1)

 
  note. The CME impact table(above) was revised an improved on May- 04- 2012          

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

        solar data by: solen.info        

SOLAR PARAMETERS

  SOLAR ACTIVITIES CLASS TOTAL:  

The large TRANSEQUARORIAL Coronal Hole CH 515 might cause dropping global temperatures with side effects such as storms and hail during the next days.(May 05- 07)

   
SUNSPOT NUMBER

79

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

283-302

FLARES >

C

11

     
SOLAR FLUX

121

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 5.9

 

M

01    
PLANETARY "A" INDEX

03

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

70- 132 nT

 

X

     

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS:

     

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 
REMARKS: ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES EARTH FACING ON: CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:   solen.info/ NOAA/TODAY`S ALERTS >>  
  LONGITUDE LATITUDE   NUMBER LATITUDE: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING FADING  
 

11470

52° -66 ° W

17° S

            CH 515 T.EQU. RECURR. MAY- 02 MAY- 06- 07    
 

11471

49° -63° W

22° S

            CH 516 T.EQU. RECURR. PERMANENT MAY 9-10    
 

11472

                RECURR.= RECURRENT T.EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL  
 

11474

02° E - 12° W

15° N

  MAY 07         N-P - CH- EXT- NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION    
 

11475

10° E- 04° W

05° N

  MAY 08         SP - CH- EXT- SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION    

11476

47°-33° E

11° N

<<read HIGHLY CRITICAL MAY 11              
                  FILAMENTS      
                             
REMARKS >    

 

 

 

 

                     

2012

MONTH:

MAY

 

DAY:

06

   

TERRESTRIAL

 
               

SECTION 1 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

                   
                           

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!
  EXTERNAL SOURCES:  

EARTHQUAKES:

            EMSC NEIC  

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.1 - KURIL ISLANDS - 2012-05-06 19:26 UTC        

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

                    EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ SANTORIN MAY 06- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O: 03 HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 2.7 - DODECANESE ISLANDS- 2012-05-06 11:03 UTC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ EASTERN TURKEY( near city of Van) MAY 06- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O: 07 HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.8 - EASTERN TURKEY - 2012-05-06 19:01 UTC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ WESTERN TURKEY MAY 06- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O: 38 HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.4 - WESTERN TURKEY - 2012-05-06 10:57 UTC  
                     

STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

no tropical storm reported so far...

click here for today s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com  
SUDDEN GLACIAL MELTDOWNS?                   20120507 report by: bbc.com  

Afghan wedding hit by floods in Sar-e Pol province

At least 22 people have been killed and about 80 are still missing after a flash flood hit Sar-e Pol province in northern Afghanistan. Floodwaters deluged a wedding party in Deh Mordan village when Sang Charak district was flooded on Sunday night, disaster officials say....read more...

 
                             
                               
             

 

NOTICES: Since End of April, HIGH ERUPTIVE SUN ACTIVITY CREATED SEVERAL SMALLER CME each day. Portions of these CME arriving on Earth increase geomagnetic energy: Moderate immidiate CME effects including magmatic (volcanic) quake activities (tremors) will continue, while subsequent larger Earthquake will follow with the LATENCY when the Sun activity will decrease and tectonic plates will begin to cool down and contract again. ( Friction)

 
                 

SEKTION 2/ 3 (RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

     
               
  LAST FORECAST RELATED EVENT >>

CME - NR 37/12

MAY- 05- 2012

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

  "LATENCY"= EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDES ARE POSSIBLE BUT RATHER UNLIKELY  
ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES-

"A"- "B"

LOW- MEDIUM

A >< B   ALERT LEVEL ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  
 

MAJOR SUDDEN STORMS

150° E ><180° >< 150° W < VOLCANISM/ QUAKES > 150° E ><180° >< 150° W      

WARM

HOT

DRY

WESTERN PACIFIC

< GEOGRAPHIC >

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF  

06 MAY- 2012

 

SUDDEN (ALPINE) MELTING

JAPAN, KAMCHATKA,

These forcasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

NORTH AMERICA/ WEST C.  

M 5.5-> 7.0

LATENCY?  

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

ALASKA, US WEST COAST JAPAN/ WEST PACIFIC  

07 MAY- 2012

 

ELECTROMAGNETIC EFFECTS

SECONDARY REGIONS :

SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5- 6.5

CME ARRIVAL?  

RADIO BLACKOUTS

INDONESIA INDONESIA  

08 MAY- 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS

EASTERN EUROPE EASTERN EUROPE  

M 5.5-> 7.0

CME ARRIVAL?  
        *REGIONS> see definition below    

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:

TODAY`s CME ARRIVALS (UTC) :

  NEW: OVERALL SOLAR ACTIVITY >> : HIGH << (SOLAR ERUPTIONS)  
    NUMBER ACE (Mag) GOEShp   DESCRIPTION: MULTIPLE EVENTS- MAINLY PROMINENCES  

QUIET

             

UNSETTLED

  ONGOING MINOR CME IMPACTS   NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:  

MINOR STORM

 

APPROACHING CMEs:

 

ALERTS:

CURRENT

LAST 24 h

REPORT/LINK

 

MAJOR STORM

  NUMBER ARRIVAL* STRENGTH*  

ELECTRON STORM

NONE

NONE

NASA/ GOES 15

 
    VARIOUS ONGOING SUN WINDS  

SOLAR STORMS:

NON

NONE

   

REMARKS:

    38/12 (1,2) MAY 7-8 MEDIUM   S. RADIATION STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 

.

DATE:

LATEST CME ARRIVAL:

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 
20120505 37/12 125 nT   RADIO BLACKOUTS

R1

R1

 

 
    * ESTIMATED    

see also >

spaceweather.com  

SATELLITE IMAGES

  2012 note: not all sat images might be displayed! If so- refresh th side or click in the direct link above!  

note: reports by NOAA are sometimes backdated or revised later

 

ACTIVE REGION:

CME at:

      201200506/ 22:29 UTC  

SPACE FOR REMARKS OR VIDEO SOURCES

 
     

SoHO has a

malefunction since

May- 05/ 16:12 UTC

       
TRACKING NUMBER    

(4) late on May 06, AR 11476 produced another prominence at 22:29 . The eruption was almost sychronous with a minor prominence in Ar 11471

 

SUN COORDINATES:

   

S21W64/ S22W07

     

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

   
       

SIDERIC DIRECTION:

  (1) STEREO- Ahead " (2) SoHO-LASCO C3 (3) SDO /AIA comp. (4) SDO /AIA comp.      

ARRIVAL (estimated):

 

please note: sorry- Images of STEREO SPACECRAFT CAN NOT BE IMPLEMENTED, as STEREO operators archive incoming images later under a different URLs. Click on link: STEREO- Ahead "instead to view images on your own !

     
* DAY TIME: UTC DAY                          
  note. The CME impact table(above) was revised an improved on May- 04- 2012          

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

        solar data by: solen.info  

CH 515 on 20120506/ STAR MAP by: solen.info

   

SOLAR PARAMETERS

  SOLAR ACTIVITIES CLASS TOTAL:      
SUNSPOT NUMBER

104

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

285-331

FLARES >

C

14

     
SOLAR FLUX

117

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 6.7

 

M

02    
PLANETARY "A" INDEX

05

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

75- 125 nT

 

X

     

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS:

     

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

   
REMARKS: ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES EARTH FACING ON: CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:   solen.info/ NOAA/TODAY`S ALERTS >>  
  LONGITUDE LATITUDE   NUMBER LATITUDE: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING FADING  
 

11470

40° -56 ° W

17° S

            CH 515 T.EQU. DECAYING MAY- 02 MAY- 06- 07    
 

11471

36° -50° W

22° S

Flare: M1.9/1N at 14:31 UTC   14:31 UTC SCORP. MAY 09-10   CH 516 T.EQU. RECURR. PERMANENT MAY 9-10    
 

11472

                RECURR.= RECURRENT T.EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL  
 

11474

17°-03° E

15° N

  MAY 07         N-P - CH- EXT- NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION    
 

11475

26°- 12° E

05° N

  MAY 08         SP - CH- EXT- SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION    

11476

61°-47° E

11° N

<<read HIGHLY CRITICAL MAY 11              
                  FILAMENTS      
                             
REMARKS >    

 

 

 

 

                     

2012

MONTH:

MAY

 

DAY:

05

   

TERRESTRIAL

 
               

SECTION 1 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

                   
                           

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!
  EXTERNAL SOURCES:  

EARTHQUAKES:

            EMSC NEIC  

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.5 - TONGA - 2012-05-05 20:23 UTC        

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

                    EMSC  
EARTHQUAKES/MEXICO/ MAY 05- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O: 02 HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.2 - OFFSHORE CHIAPAS- 2012-05-05 02:05 UTC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ SANTORIN MAY 05- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O: 03 HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.6 - DODECANESE ISLANDS- 2012-05-05 18:28 UTC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ EASTERN TURKEY( near city of Van) MAY 05- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O: 11 HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.8 - EASTERN TURKEY - 2012-05-05 10:04 UTC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ WESTERN TURKEY MAY 05- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O: 41 HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.9 - WESTERN TURKEY - 2012-05-05 02:56 UTC  
                     

STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

no tropical storm reported so far...

click here for today s European Weather situtation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com  
SUDDEN MELTDOWNS                     20120506 report by: bbc.co.uk  

NEPAL/ Dozens missing in Nepal floods near Annapurna

Dozens of people are still missing in Nepal after a mountain river burst its banks near Mount Annapurna, in the west of the country, causing flash flooding, police say. A police official told AFP that a search operation for the 43 missing people was under way, but he saw little chance of finding any of them alive. Three Ukrainian tourists trekking in the area are among the missing. At least 13 people died when the floods surged down the Seti river on Saturday. The floods damaged a suspension bridge used by the residents of Kharapani village Eight people have been rescued from the surge of water. The area is popular with tourists....read more...

 
WIKIPEDIA                            

TECH DISASTERS :FUKUSHIMA

    IAEA/ Fukushima status reports  
MEDIA REPORTS:                     20120505 report by: thewatchers  

Fukushima still spewing massive radiation plumes; America in ‘huge trouble,’ says nuclear expert

During a recent Congressional delegation trip to Japan, Oregon Senator Ron Wyden witnessed with his own eyes the horrific aftermath of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster, which we have heard very little about from the media in recent months. The damage situation was apparently so severe, according to his account, that he has now written a letter to Ichiro Fujisaki, Ambassador of Japan, petitioning for more to be done, and offering any additional support and assistance that might help contain and resolve the situation as quickly as possible...

Imminent collapse of Reactor 4 could create a mass extinction event of both humans and animals

According to Christina Consolo, an award-winning biomedical photographer and host of Nuked Radio, Reactor 4 has remained in such bad shape that even a very small earthquake could quickly level the building, sending the fuel from more than 1,500 unused fuel rods into the environment. And with Reactor 4 still filled with the highest levels of radioactive MOX and other fuels, the consequences of this potential collapse could be far worse than anything that has happened thus far as a result of the earthquake and tsunami....read more...

 
                               
             

 

NOTICES: Since End of April, HIGH ERUPTIVE SUN ACTIVITY CREATED SEVERAL SMALLER CME each day. Portions of these CME arriving on Earth increase geomagnetic energy: Moderate immidiate CME effects including magmatic (volcanic) quake activities (tremors) will continue, while subsequent larger Earthquake will follow with the LATENCY when the Sun activity will decrease and tectonic plates will begin to cool down and contract again. ( Friction)

 
                 

SEKTION 2/ 3 (RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

     
               
  LAST FORECAST RELATED EVENT >>

CME - NR 37/12

MAY- 05- 2012

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

  "LATENCY"= EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDES ARE POSSIBLE BUT RATHER UNLIKELY  
ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES-

"A"- "B"

LOW- MEDIUM

A >< B   ALERT LEVEL ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  
 

MAJOR SUDDEN STORMS

150° E ><180° >< 150° W < VOLCANISM/ QUAKES > 150° E ><180° >< 150° W      

WARM

HOT

DRY

WESTERN PACIFIC

< GEOGRAPHIC >

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF  

05 MAY- 2012

 

SUDDEN (ALPINE) MELTING

JAPAN, KAMCHATKA,

These forcasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

NORTH AMERICA/ WEST C.  

M 5.5- 7.0

LATENCY?  

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

ALASKA, US WEST COAST JAPAN/ WEST PACIFIC  

06 MAY- 2012

 

ELECTROMAGNETIC EFFECTS

SECONDARY REGIONS :

SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5- 7.0

CME ARRIVAL?  

RADIO BLACKOUTS

INDONESIA INDONESIA  

07 MAY- 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS

EASTERN EUROPE EASTERN EUROPE  

M 5.5-> 7.0

2-3  
        *REGIONS> see definition below    

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:

TODAY`s CME ARRIVALS (UTC) :

  NEW: OVERALL SOLAR ACTIVITY >> : HIGH << (SOLAR ERUPTIONS)  
    NUMBER ACE (Mag) GOEShp   DESCRIPTION: MULTIPLE EVENTS- MAINLY PROMINENCES  

QUIET

  37/12 (1,2) 18:50 13:30 UTC      

UNSETTLED

  ONGOING MINOR CME IMPACTS   NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:  

MINOR STORM

 

APPROACHING CMEs:

 

ALERTS:

CURRENT

LAST 24 h

REPORT/LINK

 

MAJOR STORM

  NUMBER ARRIVAL* STRENGTH*  

ELECTRON STORM

NONE

NONE

NASA/ GOES 15

 
    VARIOUS ONGOING SUN WINDS  

SOLAR STORMS:

NON

NONE

   

REMARKS:

    38/12 (1,2) MAY 7-8 MEDIUM   S. RADIATION STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 

.

DATE:

LATEST CME ARRIVAL:

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 
20120503 36/12 127 nT   RADIO BLACKOUTS

R1

NONE

 

 
    * ESTIMATED    

see also >

spaceweather.com  

SATELLITE IMAGES

MAY- 05 2012 note: not all sat images might be displayed! If so- refresh th side or click in the direct link above!  

note: reports by NOAA are sometimes backdated or revised later

 

ACTIVE REGION:

CME at:

20120505/ 10:05 UTC 20120505/ 06:57 UTC 20120505/ 13:29 UTC 20120505/ 17:59 UTC  

SPACE FOR REMARKS OR VIDEO SOURCES

 

AR 11476/11471/11474

MULTIPLE      
TRACKING NUMBER

38/12 (2)

 

New AR 11476 just appeared on the Eastern limb.THE LARGE SUN SPOT GROUP produced several stronger eruptions on April 5 - The first and largest at 2:56 UTC . The second was associated to an C 5 x-ray event after 9:00 UTC.The other to an M 1.6 class event peaking at 13:30. Differently to flares and CMEs associated to nuclear reactions in active regions/ sun spots, PROMINENCES are just triggered and ejected by magnetic tensions and thus DO OBVIOUSLY NOT leave significant signatures of x-ray bursts. Several minor PROMINENCES with possibly associated CMEs were observed in AR 11471. The strongest at 6:57 UTC (2). Another PROMINENCE occured in spotless region 11474 at 17: 59 (4) Parts of these CMEs might arrive on April 07- 08.

 

SUN COORDINATES:

   

S21W64/ S22W07

     

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

   
PROMINENCE/FLARES C 5- M1    

SIDERIC DIRECTION:

LIBRA- SAG- (1) SDO /AIA comp (2) SDO /AIA comp (3) SDO /AIA comp. (4) SDO /AIA comp.    

ARRIVAL (estimated):

MAY 07-08

please note: sorry- Images of STEREO SPACECRAFT CAN NOT BE IMPLEMENTED, as STEREO operators archive incoming images later under a different URLs. Click on link: STEREO- Ahead "instead to view images on your own !

     
*                          

CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS/ARRIVALS

CME TRACKING >

 

ARRIVAL AT SAT

 

IMPACT >

         

TRACKING NR.:

37/12

SOLAR EVENT DATA

CME EVENT

APPROACHING >

ACE

GOES

 

20120505

< IMPACT > CME ARRIVAL DATA (EARTH)  
MINOR CMESson MAY 02- 03 AR LONG LAT. DATE

EVENT DESCRIPTION

ARRIVAL

ARRIVAL  

> 100 nT

MAIN PEAK VALUE EST. MASS* MAIN IMPACT REGIONS  
SUMMARY OF MULTIPLE EVENTS

11469

41° - 55 ° W

20° S

MAY 02- 19:10 PROMINENCE APR- 05/14:00 APR- 05/ 13:30 UTC   11:30- 4:00 (APR-06) 24:00 UTC 125 nT 190 REGION "B">< "C"  

 

DURATION: 20:00- 2:00 UTC(APr-06)       SECONDARY IMPACT REGIONS> REGION "A">< REGION "F"  
*                          
* DAY TIME: UTC DAY                          

3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT

 
EXPLANATIONS>

Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.

Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./ Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME or CME cluster/  
HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST> INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions! STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER CME IMPACT (LATENCY!) on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES between the RED and the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Minor ones between the yellow and green regions  

REGIONS

REGION "A"

REGION "B"

REGION "C"

REGION "D"

REGION "E"

REGION "F"

related CME  
REGIONS COVERED BY LATEST CME IMPACT> EASTERN EURASIA- CHINA- JAPAN- PHILIPPINES- INDONESIA- AUSTRALIA CENTRAL/ EAST ALASKA - KAMCHATKA- JAPAN/EAST- AUSTRALIA/ (WEST)- NZ, PNG.- FIJI- CENTRAL- USA+ WEST COAST- EASTERN PACIFIC- CANADA- EASTERN USA- SOUTH AMERICA/ CARIBBEAN/ /COLUMBIA,/PERU CENTRAL EUROPE/ AFRICA, WEST ATLANTIC WEST - SOUTH AMERICA/ EAST INDIA & INDIAN OCEAN- AFRICA (EAST), ARABIA ASIA MINOR

ARRIVAL:

 
RELATED TECTONIC BOUNDARIES> PACIFIC< EURASIA>< INDO-AUSTRALIA NORTH AMERICA (W) >< EURASIA (E) ><PACIFIC (E) NORTH AMERICA/ incl. Microplates ><PACIFIC AFRICA >< CARRIBEAN >< SOUTH AMERIA >< NASCA>< COCOS EURASIA <> N-AMERICA/WESTCARRIBEAN ><AFRICA EURASIA><ARABIA ><INDO-AUSTRALIA    
UTC TIME ZONES > .. ....... .. .. ...... .. CME Nr.:  

LONGITUDES>

120° E- 90° E

135° E- 180° - 135° W

90° W- 135° W

45° W- 90° W

45° W - 00° W- 45° E

45° E- 90° E

37/12

 
  note. The CME impact table(above) was revised an improved on May- 04- 2012          

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

        solar data by: solen.info        

SOLAR PARAMETERS

  SOLAR ACTIVITIES CLASS TOTAL:        
SUNSPOT NUMBER

88

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

275-329

FLARES >

C

08

     
SOLAR FLUX

116

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 6.7

 

M

02    
PLANETARY "A" INDEX

04

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

75- 125 nT

 

X

     

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS:

     

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

   
REMARKS: ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES EARTH FACING ON: CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:   solen.info/ NOAA/TODAY`S ALERTS >>  
  LONGITUDE LATITUDE   NUMBER LATITUDE: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING FADING  
 

11470

27° -41 ° W

17° S

            CH 515 T.EQU. DECAYING MAY- 02 MAY- 06- 07    
 

11471

22° -36° W

22° S

PROMINENCES   06:57 LIBRA MAY-08-09   S-P CH EXT. SOUTH RECURR. PERMANENT APR- 26    
 

11472

32° - 46° W

28° S

            RECURR.= RECURRENT T.EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL  
 

11474

28°-14° E

15° N

PROMINENCE MAY 07 17:59 VIRGO MAY 08/ 09   N-P - CH- EXT- NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION    
 

11475

37°- 23° E

05° N

  MAY 08         SP - CH- EXT- SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION    

11476

75°-61° E

11° N

<<read HIGHLY CRITICAL MAY 11 09:05/ 13: 27 GEM/ CANCER UNCERTAIN        
                  FILAMENTS      
                             
REMARKS >    

 

 

 

 

                     

2012

MONTH:

MAY

 

DAY:

04

   

TERRESTRIAL

 
               

SECTION 1 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

                   
                           

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!
  EXTERNAL SOURCES:  

EARTHQUAKES:

            EMSC NEIC  

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.1 - NORTH INDIAN OCEAN - 2012-05-04 16:23 UTC        
    9                

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

                    EMSC  
EARTHQUAKES/MEXICO/ POPOCATEPETL? MAY 04- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O:

01

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.0 - GUERRERO, MEXICO - 2012-05-04 07:06 UTC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ SANTORIN MAY 04- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O:

03

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 2.9 - DODECANESE ISLANDS- 2012-05-04 21:35 UTC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ WESTERN TURKEY MAY 04- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O:

54

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.3 - WESTERN TURKEY - 2012-05-04 05:38 UTC  
                     

STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

no tropical storm reported so far...

click here for today s European Weather situtation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com  
MEDIA REPORTS:                     20120506 report by: thewatchers  

Hail the size of baseballs trashed wheat crops of southwestern Oklahoma farming town

Residents of Grandfield, southwestern Oklahoma farming town, spent Saturday cleaning up after a compact storm carrying a big punch pretty well shut the town down. Hail the size of baseballs thrashed the wheat crop just days before harvest, damaging hundreds of homes and vehicles when the storm rolled through Friday evening....We just got clobbered,” Clark said. “I’ve seen hail storms before but this was the most damaging storm I’ve ever seen here in town.”Clark said power lines came down west of town at the airport, and one woman was injured when the storm rolled through about 6 p.m. Friday....read more...

 

 
                             

OUTER SPACE

                20120504 report by: thewatchers  

Supermoon this weekend, Eta Aquarid meteor shower and Venus transit this week

This weekend will provide the full Moon’s closest approach of the year to Earth. On Saturday, May 5, 2012 the Moon could appear as much as 14% bigger and 30% brighter than other full Moons of 2012, according to some calculations. Every month, as the Moon circles the Earth in its elongated orbit, its distance from the Earth varies. This weekend, the Moon is reaching what’s known as its perigee, the closest point to Earth in its orbit. It will be about 356,953 kilometers (221,802 miles) from Earth on Saturday. Apogee — when the Moon is farthest away — varies, but is around 405,000 km (252,000 miles) away....read more...

 

 
                               
                               
             

 

TODAY`s NOTICES: SEVERAL SMALLER CMEs were observed during the past days. One large CME on April 28. Portions of these CME arriving on Earth will increase geomagnetic energy: Moderate immidiate CME effects including magmatic (volcanic) quake activities (tremors) will continue, while subsequent larger Earthquake will follow with the LATENCY when tectonic plates will begin to cool down and contract again. ( Friction)

 
                 

SEKTION 2/ 3 (RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

     
               
  LAST FORECAST RELATED EVENT >>

CME - NR 36/12 (1,2)

MAY- 03- 2012

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

  "LATENCY"= EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDES ARE POSSIBLE BUT RATHER UNLIKELY  
ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES-

"B"- "C"

LOW- MEDIUM

A ><B/ C>< D   ALERT LEVEL ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  
 

MAJOR SUDDEN STORMS

135° W- 165° W < VOLCANISM/ QUAKES > 45°- 180° E      

WARM

HOT

DRY

WESTERN PACIFIC

< GEOGRAPHIC >

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF  

04 MAY- 2012

 

SUDDEN (ALPINE) MELTING

JAPAN, KAMCHATKA,

These forcasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

NORTH AMERICA/ PACIFIC  

M 5.5- > 7.0

2-3  

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

ALASKA, US WEST COAST    

05 MAY- 2012

 

ELECTROMAGNETIC EFFECTS

SECONDARY REGIONS :

SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5- 7.0

2-3  

RADIO BLACKOUTS

INDONESIA INDONESIA  

06 MAY- 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS

EUROPE EUROPE  

M 5.5- 7.0

2-3  
        *REGIONS> see definition below    

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:

TODAY`s CME ARRIVALS (UTC) :

  NEW: OVERALL SOLAR ACTIVITY >> : HIGH << (SOLAR ERUPTIONS)  
    NUMBER ACE (Mag) GOEShp   DESCRIPTION: MULTIPLE EVENTS- MAINLY PROMINENCES  

QUIET

  37/12   17:00 UTC      

UNSETTLED

  ONGOING MINOR CME IMPACTS   NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:  

MINOR STORM

 

APPROACHING CMEs:

 

ALERTS:

CURRENT

LAST 24 h

REPORT/LINK

 

MAJOR STORM

  NUMBER ARRIVAL* STRENGTH*  

SOLAR STORMS

NONE

NONE

 

 
           

ELECTRON STORM

NONE

NONE

NASA/ GOES 15

 

REMARKS:

    37/12 MAY 6- 7 MEDIUM  

RADIATION STORMS

NONE

NONE

 

 

.

DATE:

LATEST CME ARRIVAL:

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

SCALE (NOAA)

 
20120503 36/12 127 nT  

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 
    * ESTIMATED    

see also >

spaceweather.com  

SATELLITE IMAGES

  2012 note: not all sat images might be displayed! If so- refresh th side or click in the direct link above!  

note: reports by NOAA are sometimes backdated or revised later

 

ACTIVE REGION:

CME at:

20120505/ 03:24 UTC 20120505/ 02:56 UTC 20120504/ 23:58 UTC    

SPACE FOR REMARKS OR VIDEO SOURCES

 
AR 11469/ S1611 23:58 UTC

       
TRACKING NUMBER 38/12 (1)  

<< (1) (2)larger prominence in AR 11469/ S1611 on MAY- 04/ 23: 58 UTC

 

 

SUN COORDINATES:

   

W65°- 79° W

27° S

     

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

     
PROMINENCE none      

SIDERIC DIRECTION:

SAG. (1) STEREO- Ahead " (2) SDO /AIA comp. (3) SDO /AIA comp. (4) SDO /AIA comp.      

ARRIVAL (estimated):

NONE

please note: sorry- Images of STEREO SPACECRAFT CAN NOT BE IMPLEMENTED, as STEREO operators archive incoming images later under a different URLs. Click on link: STEREO- Ahead "instead to view images on your own !

     
* DAY TIME: UTC DAY                          
             

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

        solar data by: solen.info  

A huge transequatorial CORONAL HOLE (CH 515) is forming out on the Eastern side. Global temperatures on planet Earth might drop significantly when it becomes Earth facing during the coming days. Also expectable: Irregular HIGH SPEED Sun wind streams and geomagnetic disturbances, when CH 515 begins to decay again.

   

SOLAR PARAMETERS

  SOLAR ACTIVITIES CLASS TOTAL:      
SUNSPOT NUMBER

101

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

289-332

FLARES >

C

06

     
SOLAR FLUX

114

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 3.9

 

M

    solen.info/ NOAA/TODAY`S ALERTS:  
PLANETARY "A" INDEX

04

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

75- 110 nT

 

X

   
 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS:

     

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

   
REMARKS: ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES EARTH FACING ON: CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:          
  LONGITUDE LATITUDE   NUMBER LATITUDE: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING FADING  
 

11469

64° - 78 ° W

20° S

PROMINENCE   23:59 SAGITT. UNLIKELY   CH 515 T.EQU. DECAYING MAY- 02 MAY- 06- 07    
 

11470

16° -30 ° W

17° S

            S-P CH EXT. SOUTH RECURR. PERMANENT APR- 26    
 

11471

07° -21° W

22° S

CRITICAL!           RECURR.= RECURRENT T.EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL  
 

11472

18° - 32° W

28° S

          N-P - CH- EXT- NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION    
ROTATING OUT >

11473

78° - 92° W

20° S

            SP - CH- EXT- SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION    
 

11474

42°-28° E

15° N

  MAY 09            
 

11475

51°- 37° E

05° N

  MAY 09       FILAMENTS      
                             
REMARKS >    

 

 

                     

2012

MONTH:

MAY

 

DAY:

03

   

TERRESTRIAL

 
               

SECTION 1 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

                   
                           

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!
  EXTERNAL SOURCES:  

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD

                    20120424 report by: .swpc.noaa.gov  
 

.

 

EARTHQUAKES:

            EMSC NEIC  

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.5 - IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION - 2012-05-03 10:09 UTC        

EARTHQUAKES TODAY

MEDIA*:

NAME of REGION

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME

MAGNITUDE

DEPTH

CATHEGORY

MAP

GOOGLE EARTH:

 
  IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION 32.79 N ; 47.61 E 2012-05-03 10:09 UTC M 5.5 10 km unknown REDSEA ---  
  - WESTERN TURKEY - 39.13 N ; 29.10 E 2012-05-03 15:20 UTC M 5.3 10 km unknown EQEURO    
  *available 9                

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

                    EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ WESTERN TURKEY MAY 03- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O:

66

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 5.3 - WESTERN TURKEY - 2012-05-03 15:20 UTC  
                     

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

will be updated each Thursday!              

media reports >

                      20120503 report by: volcanodiscovery.com  

Masaya volcano (Nicaragua): new small eruptions and strong degassing

Nicaragua's Masaya volcano, located about 20 km south of Managua city, has entered a new eruptive phase. The latest report of the Instituto Nicaragüense de Estudios Territoriales (INETER) mentions 24 small ash and steam explosions that were recorded between 30 April and 1 May. 9 of these explosions produced ash clouds that rose about 500 m above the Santiago crater rim. ...read more...

 

media reports >

                      20120503 report by: volcanodiscovery.com  

New volcano eruption in the South Sandwich Islands at Mt Curry, Zavodovski Island

A new eruption on the remote Zavodovski Island in the South Sandwich island chain was detected by NASA's Aqua satellite on 27 April 2012.
The satellite picture shows a plume originating from the island's active crater known as Mt Curry, or sometimes also referred to as Mt Asphyxia. It is possible that the plume is created by lava flows in contact with sea water, as it appears to be mainly steam....read more...

 

WIKIPEDIA:

                      20120501 report by: GVP  

Smithsonian / USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report

25 April-1 May 2012

New Activity/Unrest: | Batu Tara, Komba Island (Indonesia) | Cleveland, Chuginadak Island | Ioto [Iwo-jima], Volcano Islands (Japan) | Lokon-Empung, Sulawesi | Popocatépetl, México 
Ongoing Activity: | Bulusan, Luzon | Etna, Sicily (Italy) | Karymsky, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) | Kilauea, Hawaii (USA) | Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia | Sakura-jima, Kyushu | Santa María, Guatemala | Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia) | Soufrière Hills, Montserrat | Tungurahua, Ecuador

This page is updated on Wednesdays. Please see the GVP Home Page for news of the latest significant activity.

 
                               

STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

no tropical storm reported so far...

click here for today s European Weather situtation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com  
                      20120505 report by: pattayamail  
 

Tropical storm damages houses in several provinces

PRACHUAP KHIRI KHAN, 3 May 2012 – A tropical storm has battered Prachuap Khiri Khan and Ratchaburi provinces, damaging several houses and buildings in the two provinces. The storm hit Hua Hin in Prachuap Khiri Khan Province on Wednesday evening, battering it with strong winds for over an hour. Over 60 houses have been damaged, power lines blown down and there was a blackout in several villages. The Hua Hin authorities have inspected the damage and given necessities to the residents....read more...

 
                             

SCIENCE

                20120427 report by: bbc.co.uk  

Magnetic fields light up 'GPS neurons', scientists say

Researchers have spotted a group of 53 cells within pigeons' brains that respond to the direction and strength of the Earth's magnetic field. The question of how birds navigate using - among other signals - magnetic fields is the subject of much debate. These new "GPS neurons" seem to show how magnetic information is represented in birds' brains. However, the study reported by Science leaves open the question of how they actually sense the magnetic field.... Every neuron had its own characteristic response to the magnetic field, with each giving a sort of 3-D compass reading along the familiar north-south directions as well as pointing directly upward or downward. ...read more...

 
                               
             

 

TODAY`s NOTICES: SEVERAL SMALLER CMEs were observed during the past days. One large CME on April 28. Portions of these CME arriving on Earth will increase geomagnetic energy: Moderate immidiate CME effects including magmatic (volcanic) quake activities (tremors) will continue, while subsequent larger Earthquake will follow with the LATENCY when tectonic plates will begin to cool down and contract again. ( Friction)

 
                 

SEKTION 2/ 3 (RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

     
               
  LAST FORECAST RELATED EVENT >>

CME - NR 34/12

APR- 25- 2012

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

  "LATENCY"= EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDES ARE POSSIBLE BUT RATHER UNLIKELY  
ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES-

INCOMING CME PARTS!

LOW- MEDIUM

INCOMING CME PARTS!   ALERT LEVEL ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  
 

MAJOR SUDDEN STORMS

  < VOLCANISM/ QUAKES >        

WARM

HOT

DRY

CENTRAL AMERICA

< GEOGRAPHIC >

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

03 MAY- 2012

 

SUDDEN (ALPINE) MELTING

AMERICA`S- WESTCOASTS

These forcasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

AMERICA`S- WESTCOASTS  

M 5.5- > 7.0

CME arrival? /LATENCY  

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

EASTERN PACIFIC EASTERN PACIFIC  

04 MAY- 2012

 

ELECTROMAGNETIC EFFECTS

SECONDARY REGIONS :

SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5- > 7.0

2-3  

RADIO BLACKOUTS

105°-W- 150° E 105°-W- 150° E  

05 MAY- 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS

USA EAST > CENTRAL PAFICIC USA EAST > CENTRAL PAFICIC  

M 5.5- > 7.0

2-3  
        *REGIONS> see definition below    

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:

TODAY`s CME ARRIVALS (UTC) :

  NEW: OVERALL SOLAR ACTIVITY >> : HIGH << (SOLAR ERUPTIONS)  
    NUMBER ACE (Mag) GOEShp   DESCRIPTION: MULTIPLE EVENTS- MAINLY PROMINENCES  

QUIET

  36/12(1,2) APR-02/22 2:30      

UNSETTLED

  arrival began already< yesterday?   NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:  

MINOR STORM

 

APPROACHING CMEs:

 

ALERTS:

CURRENT

LAST 24 h

REPORT/LINK

 

MAJOR STORM

  NUMBER ARRIVAL* STRENGTH*  

SOLAR STORMS

NONE

NONE

 

 
    36/ 12 (1-2) AP 29- MAY 2 MINOR  

ELECTRON STORM

NONE

NONE

NASA/ GOES 15

 

REMARKS:

           

RADIATION STORMS

NONE

NONE

 

 

.

DATE:

LATEST CME ARRIVAL:

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

SCALE (NOAA)

 
20120425 34/12 127 nT  

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 
    * ESTIMATED    

see also >

spaceweather.com  

SATELLITE IMAGES

  2012 note: not all sat images might be displayed! If so- refresh th side or click in the direct link above!  

note: reports by NOAA are sometimes backdated or revised later

 

ACTIVE REGION:

CME at:

    20120503/ 18:28 UTC 20120503/ 11:59 UTC  

SPACE FOR REMARKS OR VIDEO SOURCES

 
             
TRACKING NUMBER none  

 

 

SUN COORDINATES:

   
       

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

   
minor      

SIDERIC DIRECTION:

  (1) STEREO- Ahead " (2) SoHO-LASCO C3 (3) SDO /AIA comp. (4) SDO /AIA comp.      

ARRIVAL (estimated):

 

Two eruptions observed on April 03 in AR 11469 (3) und AR 11471 (4)

     
*                          

CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS/ARRIVALS

CME TRACKING >

 

ARRIVAL AT SAT

 

IMPACT >

         

TRACKING NR.:

36/12(1,2)

SOLAR EVENT DATA

CME EVENT

APPROACHING >

ACE

GOES

 

20120419

< IMPACT > CME ARRIVAL DATA (EARTH)  
APRIL 28- 29 2012 (LDE) AR LONG LAT. DATE

EVENT DESCRIPTION

ARRIVAL

ARRIVAL  

> 100 nT

MAIN PEAK VALUE EST. MASS* MAIN IMPACT REGIONS  
SUMMARY OF MULTIPLE EVENTS

11467

19°- 04° E

13° N

APRIL 28- 19:00 UTC MAGNETIC FILAMENT APR- 02/ 22:00 UTC APR- 03/ 2:30 UTC   13:00- 24:00 21:00 UTC 128 nT 154    

11469

13° E- 01° W

20° S

APRIL 28- 19:10 PROMINENCE   15°- 180° W 135° W        

 

DURATION:   8:30- 02 UTC     SECONDARY IMPACT REGIONS> EURASIA/ EAST PACIFIC  
*                          
* DAY TIME: UTC DAY                          

3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT

 
EXPLANATIONS>

Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.

Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./ Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME or CME cluster/  
HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST> INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions! STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER CME IMPACT (LATENCY!) on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES between the RED and the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Minor ones between the yellow and green regions  

REGIONS

REGION "A"

REGION "B"

REGION "C"

REGION "D"

REGION "E"

REGION "F"

related CME  
REGIONS COVERED BY LATEST CME IMPACT> EASTERN EURASIA- CHINA- JAPAN- PHILIPPINES- INDONESIA- AUSTRALIA CENTRAL/ EAST ALASKA - KAMCHATKA- JAPAN/EAST- AUSTRALIA/ (WEST)- NZ, PNG.- FIJI- CENTRAL- USA+ WEST COAST- EASTERN PACIFIC- CANADA- EASTERN USA- SOUTH AMERICA/ CARIBBEAN/ /COLUMBIA,/PERU CENTRAL EUROPE/ AFRICA, WEST ATLANTIC WEST - SOUTH AMERICA/ EAST INDIA & INDIAN OCEAN- AFRICA (EAST), ARABIA ASIA MINOR

ARRIVAL:

 
RELATED TECTONIC BOUNDARIES> PACIFIC< EURASIA>< INDO-AUSTRALIA NORTH AMERICA (W) >< EURASIA (E) ><PACIFIC (E) NORTH AMERICA/ incl. Microplates ><PACIFIC AFRICA >< CARRIBEAN >< SOUTH AMERIA >< NASCA>< COCOS EURASIA <> N-AMERICA/WESTCARRIBEAN ><AFRICA EURASIA><ARABIA ><INDO-AUSTRALIA    
UTC TIME ZONES .. ....... .. .. ...... .. CME Nr.:  

LONGITUDES>

120° E- 90° E

135° E- 180° - 135° W

90° W- 135° W

45° W- 90° W

45° W - 00° W- 45° E

45° E- 90° E

36/12 (1,2)

 
             

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

        solar data by: solen.info  

A huge transequatorial CORONAL HOLE (CH 515) is forming out on the Eastern side. Global temperatures on planet Earth might drop significantly when it becomes Earth facing during the coming days. Also expectable: Irregular HIGH SPEED Sun wind streams and geomagnetic disturbances, when CH 515 begins to decay again.

   

SOLAR PARAMETERS

  SOLAR ACTIVITIES CLASS TOTAL:      
SUNSPOT NUMBER

107

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

272-324

FLARES >

C

03

     
SOLAR FLUX

114

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 3.4

 

M

    solen.info/ NOAA/TODAY`S ALERTS:  
PLANETARY "A" INDEX

09

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

40- 127 nT

 

X

   
 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS:

     

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

   
REMARKS: ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES EARTH FACING ON: CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:          
  LONGITUDE LATITUDE   NUMBER LATITUDE: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING FADING  
 

11469

53° - 67 ° W

20° S

            CH 515 T.EQU. GROWING MAY- 02 MAY- 5-06    
 

11470

03° -17 ° W

17° S

            S-P CH EXT. SOUTH RECURR. PERMANENT APR- 26    
 

11471

06°E - 08° W

22° S

CRITICAL!           RECURR.= RECURRENT T.EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL  
 

11472

11° - 25° W

28° S

          N-P - CH- EXT- NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION    
 

11473

64° - 78° W

20° S

            SP - CH- EXT- SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION    
 

11474

55°- 41° E

15° N

  MAY 09            
NEWLY EMERGED>

11475

66°- 52° E

05° N

  MAY 09       FILAMENTS      
                             
REMARKS >    

 

 

 

 

                     

2012

MONTH:

MAY

 

DAY:

02

   

TERRESTRIAL

 
               

SECTION 1 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

                   
                           

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!
  EXTERNAL SOURCES:  

EARTHQUAKES:

            EMSC NEIC  

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.8 - WEST OF MACQUARIE ISLAND - 2012-05-02 12:17 UTC        
  *available 9                

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

                    EMSC  
NEW: OFFSHORE CHIAPAS /MEXICO MAY 02- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O: 02 HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.4 - OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO - 2012-05-02 06:13 UTC  
DODOCANESE ISLANDS near SANTORIN/GREECE MAY 02- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O: 08 HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.3 - DODECANESE ISLANDS- 2012-05-02 08:30 UTC  
EASTERN TURKEY( near city of Van) MAY 21- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O: 02 HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.2 - EASTERN TURKEY - 2012-05-02 16:50 UTC  
NEW! NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN TURKEY MAY 02- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O: 32 HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.5 - NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN TURKEY - 2012-05-02 00:02 UTC  
                     

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

will be updated each Thursday!              

EVENTS

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME:

ALERT LEVEL

LOCAL SURVEY

GOOGLE EARTH

WEBCAM

MAP:

SOURCES:

 

IOTO [IWO-JIMA] 24°45'13"N/ 141°17'25"E MAY- 02-2012   JMA IOTO [IWO-JIMA] none JAPAN GVP  
                      20120428 report by: GVP  

According to a JMA report on 2 May, an eruption at Ioto (Iwo-jima) caused water discoloration to the NE. A new fumarole was also confirmed.

 

EVENTS

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME:

ALERT LEVEL

LOCAL SURVEY

GOOGLE EARTH

WEBCAM

MAP:

SOURCES:

 

BATU TARA pos 7°47'30"S/ 123°34'45"E MAY- 02-2012   VAAC BATU TARA   INDONESIA GVP  
                      20120508 report by: GVP  

Based on analyses of satellite imagery, the Darwin VAAC reported that during 2-4 May ash plumes from Batu Tara rose to an altitude of 2.4 km (8,000 ft) a.s.l. and drifted 37 km NW.

 
                               

STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

no tropical storm reported so far...

click here for today s European Weather situtation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com  
                      20120505 report by: zeenews.india.com  
 

Three killed in Tripura cyclone

Agartala: Cyclonic storms accompanied by lightning continue to create havoc in Tripura, killing three more people Wednesday, taking the death toll to 15, an official said here Thursday. "Sunil Chandra Das, a farmer from the Lankamura area near Agartala and Rana Ram Reang from Ampi in southern Tripura died after lightning struck them late Wednesday. Reang's wife Malini Jamatia was also critically injured in the lightning," said an official of the relief department. ...read more...

 
                             

TECH DISASTERS: TOTAL/ ELGIN GAS LEAK

       
MEDIA REPORTS:                     20120429 report by: elgin.total.com  

Elgin gas leak: weekly summary (20-26 April 2012) April, 26, 2012 - Further significant steps have been taken this week towards stopping the Elgin gas leak, including the installation of a key piece of equipment on the G4 well to divert leaking gas away from the wellhead platform. Known as a diverter, this specially manufactured device has been connected to the G4 wellhead and is now carrying the flow of leaking gas, via four flexible hoses, away from the wellhead and the platform. The fitting of this device ensures that there is no gas accumulating around the G4 wellhead or the platform. This reinforces the safety of the well intervention operation and helps alleviate restrictions on helicopter landings on the platform from now on...read more... (includes video source)

 
                               
             

 

TODAY`s NOTICES: SEVERAL SMALLER CMEs were observed during the past days. One large CME on April 28. Portions of these CME arriving on Earth will increase geomagnetic energy: Moderate immidiate CME effects including magmatic (volcanic) quake activities (tremors) will continue, while subsequent larger Earthquake will follow with the LATENCY when tectonic plates will begin to cool down again- due to latest CME data: : MAY 01- 03

 
                 

SEKTION 2/ 3 (RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

     
               
  LAST FORECAST RELATED EVENT >>

CME - NR 34/12

APR- 25- 2012

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

  "LATENCY"= EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDES ARE POSSIBLE BUT RATHER UNLIKELY  
ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES-

REGION "C"- "D

LOW- MEDIUM

REGIONS. B<>C/ D<>E

  ALERT LEVEL ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  
 

MAJOR SUDDEN STORMS

135°- 165° W < VOLCANISM/ QUAKES > CENTR. AMERICA      

WARM

HOT

DRY

CENTRAL AMERICA

< GEOGRAPHIC >

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

02 MAY- 2012

 

SUDDEN (ALPINE) MELTING

AMERICA`S- WESTCOASTS

These forcasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

AMERICA`S- WESTCOASTS  

M 5.5- > 7.0

CME arrival? /LATENCY  

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

EASTERN PACIFIC EASTERN PACIFIC  

03 MAY- 2012

 

ELECTROMAGNETIC EFFECTS

SECONDARY REGIONS :

SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5- > 7.0

CME arrival? /LATENCY  

RADIO BLACKOUTS

105°-W- 150° E 105°-W- 150° E  

04 MAY- 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS

USA EAST > CENTRAL PAFICIC USA EAST > CENTRAL PAFICIC  

M 5.5- > 7.0

CME arrival? /LATENCY  
        *REGIONS> see definition below    

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:

TODAY`s CME ARRIVALS (UTC) :

  NEW: OVERALL SOLAR ACTIVITY >> : HIGH << (SOLAR ERUPTIONS)  
    NUMBER ACE (Mag) GOEShp   DESCRIPTION: MULTIPLE EVENTS- MAINLY PROMINENCES  

QUIET

  36/12 /1/2) 22:00 UTC        

UNSETTLED

      NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:  

MINOR STORM

 

APPROACHING CMEs:

 

ALERTS:

CURRENT

LAST 24 h

REPORT/LINK

 

MAJOR STORM

  NUMBER ARRIVAL* STRENGTH*  

SOLAR STORMS

NONE

NONE

 

 
    36/ 12 (1-2) AP 29- MAY 2 MINOR  

ELECTRON STORM

NONE

NONE

NASA/ GOES 15

 

REMARKS:

           

RADIATION STORMS

NONE

NONE

 

 

.

DATE:

LATEST CME ARRIVAL:

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

SCALE (NOAA)

 
20120425 34/12 127 nT  

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 
    * ESTIMATED    

see also >

spaceweather.com  

SATELLITE IMAGES

20120502 2012 note: not all sat images might be displayed! If so- refresh th side or click in the direct link above!  

note: reports by NOAA are sometimes backdated or revised later

 

ACTIVE REGION:

CME at:

20120502/ 23:18 UTC   20120502/ 19:02 UTC    

SPACE FOR REMARKS OR VIDEO SOURCES

 
AR S 1611/AR 11469 19:00        
TRACKING NUMBER none  

<< With the ununsual low average solar wind speed during the past days, the Earth came across the path of the CMEs unleashed on April 28- 29. ( moving towards the right side of the images*) Solar particles could be observed passing by on SoHO by the CME arrival early on May 03.

A LDE prominence in AR produced two minor CME on April 02 after 19:00 UTC with associated x ray bursts measured as C 1 event. Prior to this, a minor C 1 filament eruption could be observed on the Northwestern limb

*(directions in universe are paradox: seen towards the Sun- westwards, but seen from the Earth Eastwards)

 

SUN COORDINATES:

   
W 35°- 49° W 19 ° S    

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

   
MINOR PROMINENCE C1    

SIDERIC DIRECTION:

SCORP (2) SoHO-LASCO C3   (3) SDO /AIA comp. (4) SDO /AIA comp.    

ARRIVAL (estimated):

MAY- 04-05

please note: sorry- Images of STEREO SPACECRAFT CAN NOT BE IMPLEMENTED, as STEREO operators archive incoming images later under a different URLs. . Click on link STEREO- Ahead "instead to view images on your own !

     
* DAY TIME: UTC DAY                          
             

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

        solar data by: solen.info   S-P CH EXT/ CH515/ 20120501/STAR MAP by solen.info    

SOLAR PARAMETERS

  SOLAR ACTIVITIES CLASS TOTAL:      
SUNSPOT NUMBER

109

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

271-350

FLARES >

C

04

     
SOLAR FLUX

115

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 2.8

 

M

    solen.info/ NOAA/TODAY`S ALERTS:  
PLANETARY "A" INDEX

06

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

70- 115 nT

 

X

   
 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS:

     

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

   
REMARKS: ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES EARTH FACING ON: CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:   CORONAL HOLES:        
  LONGITUDE LATITUDE   NUMBER LATITUDE: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING FADING  
 

11467

31° - 45 °W

13° N

            CH 515 T.EQU. GROWING MAY- 02 MAY- 5-06    
 

11468

 

09° N

            S-P CH EXT. SOUTH RECURR. PERMANENT APR- 26    
 

11469

41° - 55 ° W

20° S

PROMINENCE   19:00 TC   MAY- 04-05   RECURR.= RECURRENT T.EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL  
 

11470

11°E - 04 ° W

17° S

  MAY- 04       N-P - CH- EXT- NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION    
 

11471

18°- 04° E

22° S

CRITICAL!           SP - CH- EXT- SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION    
 

11472

12°E - 02° W

28° S

  MAY- 02            
 

11473

37° - 51° W

20° S

  MAY- 02       FILAMENTS      
NEWLY EMERGED>

11474

68°- 54° E

15° N

  MAY 07              
                             
REMARKS >    

 

 

 

 

                     

2012

MONTH:

MAY

 

DAY:

01

   

TERRESTRIAL

 
               

SECTION 1 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

                   
                           

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!
  EXTERNAL SOURCES:  

EARTHQUAKES:

            EMSC NEIC  

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 6.0 - OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO - 2012-05-01 22:43 UTC        

EARTHQUAKES TODAY

MEDIA*:

NAME of REGION

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME

MAGNITUDE

DEPTH

CATHEGORY

MAP

GOOGLE EARTH:

 
OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO 14.50 N ; 92.90 W 2012-05-01 22:43 UTC M 6.0 60 km unknown   ---  
  *available 9                

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

                    EMSC  
NEW: OFFSHORE CHIAPAS /MEXICO MAY 01- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O: 06 HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.3.- 6.0 ( see above)  
DODOCANESE ISLANDS near SANTORIN/GREECE MAY 01- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O: 02 HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.0 - DODECANESE ISLANDS- 2012-05-01 23:24 UTC  
EASTERN TURKEY( near city of Van) MAY 01- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O: 03 HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 2.6 - EASTERN TURKEY - 2012-05-01 04:23 UTC  
NEW! NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN TURKEY MAY 01- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O: 21 HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.0 - NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN TURKEY - 2012-05-01 15:50 UTC  
                     

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

will be updated each Thursday!              

EVENTS

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME:

ALERT LEVEL

LOCAL SURVEY

GOOGLE EARTH

WEBCAM

MAP:

SOURCES:

 
                  GVP  

WIKIPEDIA:

                      20120428 report by: volcanodiscovery  
     
                               

STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

no tropical storm reported so far...

click here for today s European Weather situtation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com  
MEDIA REPORTS:                     20120429 report by: accuweather.com  

Severe Threat Shifts into the Upper Mississippi Valley

Severe thunderstorms will ignite across the upper Mississippi Valley later this afternoon and tonight. Places that will need to keep an eye out for damaging severe storms include St. Cloud, Minneapolis and Mankato, Minn., Sioux Falls, S.D. and Omaha, Neb. The greatest risks will be large hail, locally damaging wind gusts and torrential downpours. Hail the size of baseballs and wind gusts to 60 mph can cause significant damage to automobiles, homes, trees and power lines....read more...

 
                               
             

 

TODAY`s NOTICES: SEVERAL SMALLER CMEs were observed during the past days. One large CME on April 28. Portions of these CME arriving on Earth will increase geomagnetic energy: Moderate immidiate CME effects including magmatic (volcanic) quake activities (tremors) will continue, while subsequent larger Earthquake will follow with the LATENCY when tectonic plates will begin to cool down again- due to latest CME data: : MAY 01- 03

 
                 

SEKTION 2/ 3 (RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

     
               
  LAST FORECAST RELATED EVENT >>

CME - NR 34/12

APR- 25- 2012

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

  "LATENCY"= EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDES ARE POSSIBLE BUT RATHER UNLIKELY  
ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES-

REGION "C"- "D

LOW- MEDIUM

REGIONS. B<>C/ D<>E

  ALERT LEVEL ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  
 

MAJOR SUDDEN STORMS

135°- 165° W < VOLCANISM/ QUAKES > CENTR. AMERICA      

WARM

HOT

DRY

CENTRAL AMERICA

< GEOGRAPHIC >

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

01 MAY- 2012

 

SUDDEN (ALPINE) MELTING

AMERICA`S- WESTCOASTS

These forcasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

AMERICA`S- WESTCOASTS  

M 5.5- > 7.0

CME arrival? /LATENCY  

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

EASTERN PACIFIC EASTERN PACIFIC  

02 MAY- 2012

 

ELECTROMAGNETIC EFFECTS

SECONDARY REGIONS :

SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5- > 7.0

CME arrival? /LATENCY  

RADIO BLACKOUTS

105°-W- 150° E 105°-W- 150° E  

03 MAY- 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS

USA EAST > CENTRAL PAFICIC USA EAST > CENTRAL PAFICIC  

M 5.5- > 7.0

CME arrival? /LATENCY  
        *REGIONS> see definition below    

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:

TODAY`s CME ARRIVALS (UTC) :

  NEW: OVERALL SOLAR ACTIVITY >> : HIGH << (SOLAR ERUPTIONS)  
    NUMBER ACE (Mag) GOEShp   DESCRIPTION: MULTIPLE EVENTS- MAINLY PROMINENCES  

QUIET

             

UNSETTLED

      NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:  

MINOR STORM

 

APPROACHING CMEs:

 

ALERTS:

CURRENT

LAST 24 h

REPORT/LINK

 

MAJOR STORM

  NUMBER ARRIVAL* STRENGTH*  

SOLAR STORMS

NONE

NONE

 

 
    36/ 12 (1-2) AP 29- MAY 1 MINOR  

ELECTRON STORM

NONE

NONE

NASA/ GOES 15

 

REMARKS:

           

RADIATION STORMS

NONE

NONE

 

 

.

DATE:

LATEST CME ARRIVAL:

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

SCALE (NOAA)

 
20120425 34/12 127 nT  

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 
    * ESTIMATED    

see also >

spaceweather.com  

SATELLITE IMAGES

20120501 2012 note: not all sat images might be displayed! If so- refresh th side or click in the direct link above!  

note: reports by NOAA are sometimes backdated or revised later

 

ACTIVE REGION:

CME at:

    20120501/ 04:26 UTC 20120501/ 04:56 UTC  

SPACE FOR REMARKS OR VIDEO SOURCES

 
AR 11471 4:26 UTC please note: Images of STEREO SPACECRAFT CAN NOT BE IMPLEMENTED NOW , RESP MIGHT BE IMPLEMENTED DAYS AFTER. Reason: STEREO operators archive incoming images later under a different URLs. . Click on link below instead! no image available yet      
TRACKING NUMBER 37/12  

<< a larger filament eruption could be observed today- May- 01- 2012 at 04: 26 UTC almost all across the Southwestern hemisphere. The eruption was almost synchronous with by a flare in AR 11471- measured with a C 2.5 X- ray burst.The filament eruption caused a intense sun wind stream emitting for hours from the Sun. Since April 28- several daily minor or partial Earth directed CMEare loading up the geomagnetic field, what will by and by cause immidiate CME effects now while major Earthquake activities might occur, when the intense eruptive activity will again decsease for a while.

 

SUN COORDINATES:

   

32°- 18° E

22° S

   

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

   

FLARE and FILAMENT ERUPTION

C 2.5    

SIDERIC DIRECTION:

  (1) STEREO- Ahead " (2) SoHO-LASCO C3 (3) SDO /AIA comp. (4) SDO /AIA comp.      

ARRIVAL (estimated):

 

 

     
* DAY TIME: UTC DAY                          
             

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

        solar data by: solen.info   S-P CH EXT/ CH515/ 20120501/STAR MAP by solen.info    

SOLAR PARAMETERS

  SOLAR ACTIVITIES CLASS TOTAL:      
SUNSPOT NUMBER

99

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

278-351

FLARES >

C

04

     
SOLAR FLUX

109

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 3.3

 

M

    solen.info/ NOAA/TODAY`S ALERTS:  
PLANETARY "A" INDEX

06

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

75- 115 nT

 

X

   
 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS:

     

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

   
REMARKS: ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES EARTH FACING ON: CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:   CORONAL HOLES:        
  LONGITUDE LATITUDE   NUMBER LATITUDE: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING FADING  
 

11467

20° - 34 °W

13° N

            CH 515 T.EQU.? GROWING MAY- 02 MAY- 5-06    
 

11468

 

09° N

            S-P CH EXT. SOUTH GROWING PERM. APR- 26    
 

11469

26° - 40 ° W

20° S

  APRIL- 29         RECURR.= RECURRENT T.EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL  
 

11470

25°- 11 ° E

17° S

  MAY- 03       N-P - CH- EXT- NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION    
 

11471

33°- 19° E

22° S

CRITICAL!           SP - CH- EXT- SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION    
 

11472

15° - 01° E

28° S

  MAY- 02            
NEWLY EMERGED>

11473

37° - 51° W

20° S

  MAY- 02       FILAMENTS      
                             
REMARKS >    
                                 
                                 
                                 
                                 
                                 
click here to open and close collapsible panel: archive of solar and terrestrial blog/ MAY 08- 14- 2012
/ eruptive proinence

 

 

 

                     

2012

MONTH:

MAY

 

DAY:

14

   

 

   
                 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

                         

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!
  EXTERNAL SOURCES:  

EARTHQUAKES:

            EMSC NEIC  

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 6.2 - TARAPACA, CHILE - 2012-05-14 10:00 UTC        

EARTHQUAKES TODAY

REPORTS:

NAME of REGION

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME

MAGNITUDE

DEPTH

CATHEGORY

MAP

GOOGLE EARTH:

 
TARAPACA, CHILE 17.70 S ; 69.66 W 2012-05-14 10:00 UTC M 6.2 104 km unknown --- ---  
    SOUTHERN IRAN 27.92 N ; 57.77 E 2012-05-14 10:12 UTC M 5.0 30 km unknown ---    

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

                    EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ SANTORIN MAY 14- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O: 01 HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.2 - DODECANESE ISLANDS- 2012-05-14 06:07 UTC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ EASTERN TURKEY( near city of Van) MAY 14- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O: 06 HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.4 - EASTERN TURKEY - 2012-05-14 17:51 UTC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ WESTERN TURKEY MAY 14- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O: 02 HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 2.5 - WESTERN TURKEY - 2012-05-14 04:36 UTC  

Wikipedia:

                      20120511 report by: .msnbc.msn  
     

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

will be updated each Thursday!              
REGION

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME:

ALERT LEVEL

LOCAL SURVEY

GOOGLE EARTH

WEBCAM

MAP:

SOURCES:

 
BANDA SEA/ INDONESIA KARANGETANG [API SIAU] 2°47'0"N/ 125°24'0"E MAY- 14- 2012   CVGHM KARANGETANG [API SIAU] none INDONESIA GVP  
            20120514 report by: GVP  

Based on analyses of satellite imagery, the Darwin VAAC reported that on 14 May an ash plume from Karangetang rose to an altitude of 3.7 km (12,000 ft) a.s.l. and drifted 130 km SE. On 16 May an ash plume again rose to an altitude of 3.7 km (12,000 ft) a.s.l. then drifted about 110 km SE.

 
            20120514 report by: .bbc.co.uk  

Rise and fall of underwater volcano revealed

The violent rise and collapse of an underwater volcano in the Pacific Ocean is captured in startling clarity for the first time. Researchers studying the Monowai volcano, near Tonga, recorded huge changes in height in just two weeks. The images, gathered by sonar from a research ship, shed new light on the turbulent fate of submarine mountains. Published in the journal Nature Geoscience, the findings were made during a seabed survey last year....read more...

 

STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

 

click here for today? s European Weather situtation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com  

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: GEOGRAPHIC POSITION WIND SPEED: COORDINATES COURSE: REMARKS: MEDIA REPORTS  
wunderground.com Invest 92 MAY- 12

NORTHERN ATLANTIC

^45 MP/H 33.9W 34.0 ° N WSW

The storm is very unusual for this season

wunderground.com/blog  
  Invest 90 MAY- 12 OFFSHORE CENTRAL AMERICA 30 MP/H 104.9W  9.0 ° S WNW      

CLIMATE CHANGE

                    20120514 reports by: thewatchers  

Greenland’s glacier meltdown gives new insight for rising sea level

Greenland’s contribution to rising sea level in the 21st century might be significantly less than the upper limits some scientists thought possible, a new study shows. Data shows a 30% speed-up in 10 years on average. With faster movements of the glaciers, ice and meltwater are faster released into the ocean....read more...

 

 

               
                               
                               

SOLAR

                 

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

    SOLAR ACTIVITIES FLARES / X-RAY EVENTS:        

SOLAR PARAMETERS

  solar data by: solen.info   CLASS TOTAL:        
SUNSPOT NUMBER

156

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

424-514

 

C

07

     
SOLAR FLUX

130

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 4.3

 

M

 

  ALERTS:  
PLANETARY "A" INDEX

06

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

68- 105 nT

 

X

     
CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME) TODAY: -- APPROACHING: 01(02) ESTIMATED ARRIVAL> ONGOING     REMARKS:  
               

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS:

     

NEW CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 
REMARKS: ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES EARTH FACING ON: CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:   solen.info/ NOAA/TODAY`S ALERTS >>  
  LONGITUDE LATITUDE   NUMBER LATITUDE: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING FADING  
 

11476

48° -62° W

11° N

                         
 

11477

05° - 19° W

10° N

                         
 

11478

04° E- 10° W

24° S

  MAY- 15         N-P - CH- EXT- NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION > MAY- 13    
 

11479

27° - 13° E

14° N

  MAY- 16         SP - CH- EXT- SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION > ----    
 

11481

48°- 34° E

10° S

  MAY-19         RECURR.= RECURRENT T.EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL  
 

11482

36°- 22° E

14° N

  MAY- 17              
 

11483

39°- 25° E

26° S

  MAY- 17              
 

11484

79°- 65° E

12° N

  MAY-19              
                  FILAMENTS    
                         
                         

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

CURRENT STATUS: Immidiate CME effects ( as described below) will lkely continue until MAY- 11." LATENCY"will END appr. on MAY 10. ( LATENCY = time between latest CME impact until tectonic plates will begin to cool down and contract again and friction earthquakes will become likely) . WARNING: STRONGER EARTHQUAKES WITH MAGNITUDES UP TO M 8.0 MUST BE EXPECTED THE DAYS AFTER, those also might by capable to TRIGGER TSUNAMIS!

SOLAR ACTIVITY: Since End of April, HIGH ERUPTIVE SUN ACTIVITY CREATED SEVERAL SMALLER CME each day.On MAY- 08, these activities began to DECREASE FOR THE MOMENT, while new sun spots are forming out. The latest CME of this latest activity phase is expected to arrive until May 10  
             
  LAST FORECAST RELATED EVENT >>

CME - NR 39/ 12

MAY- 08- 09 2012

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

  "LATENCY"= EARTHQUAKES ABOVE M 6.0 ARE POSSIBLE BUT RATHER UNLIKELY  
ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

REGIONS "C" and " D"

LOW- MEDIUM

C><D><E   ALERT LEVEL ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  
 

MAJOR SUDDEN STORMS

LONG. : 15°- 135 ° WEST < VOLCANISM/ QUAKES > PLATE BOUNDARIES OF   INCREASING!  

WARM

HOT

DRY

CENTRAL AMERICA

< GEOGRAPHIC >

CARIBBEAN, COCOS  

14 MAY- 2012

 

SUDDEN (ALPINE) MELTING

WEST COAST OF SOUTH

These forcasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

ATLANTIC WEST  

M 5.5- >7.0

CME ARRIVAL !  

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

AND NORTH AMERICA N &S- AMERICA  

15 MAY- 2012

 

ELECTROMAGNETIC EFFECTS

SECONDARY REGIONS :

SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5- > 7.5

2-3  

RADIO BLACKOUTS

EURASIA EURASIA WEST  

16 MAY- 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

ATLANTIC WEST *REGIONS> see definition below ATLANTIC WEST >< AFRICA  

M 5.5- > 7.5

2-3  
                             
 

CME LATENCY EFFECTS:

DATE LAST CME ARRIVAL NUMBER STRENGTH APPROACHING CMEs   ARRIVALS EXPECTED ON EARTHQUAKE LATENCY* FROM * UNTIL*  
  (ONLY AFTER MULTIPLE CME EVENTS) 20120503- 11 36 - 39/12 130 nT 01- 02 ( 40 and 41 ? //12)   MAY- 11- 12 MAY- 14? YES NO

MAY 10

MAY- 13?

 
                 

*ESTIMATED

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:

TODAY`s CME ARRIVALS (UTC) :

  NEW: OVERALL SOLAR ACTIVITY >> :

QUIET

<< (SOLAR ERUPTIONS)  
    NUMBER ACE (Mag) GOEShp   note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated  

QUIET

  Solar wind stream from unnumbered CME   NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:  

UNSETTLED

  ONGOING MINOR CME IMPACTS  

ALERTS:

CURRENT

LAST 24 h

REPORT/LINK

 

MINOR STORM

 

APPROACHING CMEs:

 

ELECTRON STORM

NONE

NONE

NASA/ GOES 15

 

MAJOR STORM

  NUMBER ARRIVAL* STRENGTH*  

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE

NONE

   
            S. RADIATION STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 

REMARKS:

    40/12 MAY 13- 15 MEDIUM  

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 

 

      RADIO BLACKOUTS

NONE

NONE

spaceweather.com

 
* DAY TIME: UTC DAY                          
     

 

 

 

                     

2012

MONTH:

MAY

 

DAY:

13

   

 

   
                 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

                         

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!
  EXTERNAL SOURCES:  

EARTHQUAKES:

            EMSC NEIC  

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.0 - SOUTHERN IRAN - 2012-05-13 18:21 UTC        

EARTHQUAKES TODAY

REPORTS:

NAME of REGION

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME

MAGNITUDE

DEPTH

CATHEGORY

MAP

GOOGLE EARTH:

 
SOUTHERN IRAN 27.06 N ; 53.95 E 2012-05-13 18:21 UTC M 5.0 15 km unknown --- ---  

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

                    EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ SANTORIN MAY 13- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O: 02 HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.4 - DODECANESE ISLANDS- 2012-05-13 17:49 UTC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ EASTERN TURKEY( near city of Van) MAY 13- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O: 08 HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.7 - EASTERN TURKEY - 2012-05-13 16:19 UTC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ WESTERN TURKEY MAY 13- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O: 08 HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.0 - WESTERN TURKEY - 2012-05-13 06:44 UTC  

Wikipedia:

                      20120511 report by: .msnbc.msn  

Possibly active fault under Japan's Mount Fuji to trigger big quake, landslide?

TOKYO -- Japan's Mount Fuji may be sitting on a large, active fault that could trigger a magnitude-7 earthquake, changing the shape of the mountain and devastating nearby communities, the education ministry said on Thursday. A survey commissioned by the ministry found an 18-mile fault beneath Japan's highest mountain, believed by many to be sacred, and research results indicate it was likely to be active, a ministry official said....read more...

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

will be updated each Thursday!              
REGION:

NAME

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME:

ALERT LEVEL

LOCAL SURVEY

GOOGLE EARTH

WEBCAM

MAP:

SOURCES:

 
CENTRAL AMERICA SANTA MARIA de Santaguito 14°45'21"N/ 91°33'6"W MAY- 13- 2012   INSUMVEH SANTA MARIA none CENTRAM GVP  

INSIVUMEH reported that during 13-14 May incandescent explosions from Santa María's Caliente dome producedash plumes that rose 700 m above the crater and drifted WSW. Avalanches from the dome and lava-flow fronts descended the flanks.

 

STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

 

click here for today? s European Weather situtation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com  

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: GEOGRAPHIC POSITION WIND SPEED: COORDINATES COURSE: REMARKS: MEDIA REPORTS  
wunderground.com Invest 92 MAY- 12

NORTHERN ATLANTIC

40 MP/H 30.7° W 34.5° N NNE

The storm is very unusual for this season

wunderground.com/blog  
  Invest 90 MAY- 12 OFFSHORE CENTRAL AMERICA 30 MP/H 105.4W 10.2° N NNW      
                        20120514 reports by: thewatchers  

Torrential rain and hail the size of golf balls brought death and destruction to northwest China

Torrential rain and hail the size of golf ball struck north-western China this weekend. Roads were blocked, houses collapsed, farmland destroyed and power supplies and telecommunications services disrupted by the extreme weather, said Xu Guangyao, director of the county’s civil affairs bureau. From China’s Hunan province came reports that a bridge has collapsed. It is unknown how many people were on the bridge when it buckled and fell into the river at around 8:30am (local time)....read more...

 

 

 

               
                               

SOLAR

           

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

    SOLAR ACTIVITIES FLARES / X-RAY EVENTS:        

SOLAR PARAMETERS

  solar data by: solen.info

CMEs:

CLASS TOTAL:        
SUNSPOT NUMBER

138

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

443-540

none

C

04

     
SOLAR FLUX

130

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 4.2

approaching:

M

 

     
PLANETARY "A" INDEX

14

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

49- 105 nT

2

X

     

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS:

     

NEW CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 
REMARKS: ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES EARTH FACING ON: CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:   solen.info/ NOAA/TODAY`S ALERTS >>  
  LONGITUDE LATITUDE   NUMBER LATITUDE: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING FADING  
 

11476

34° -48° W

11° N

C4.4 at 04:08, C7.0/1F at 08:14 UTC MAY 11                      
 

11477

08° E - 06° W

10° N

  MAY- 14                      
 

11478

17°- 03° E

24° S

  MAY- 14         N-P - CH- EXT- NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION > MAY- 13    
 

11479

41° - 27° E

14° N

  MAY- 16         SP - CH- EXT- SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION > ----    
NEWLY EMERGED>

11481

61°- 47° E

10° S

  MAY-19         RECURR.= RECURRENT T.EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL  
NEWLY EMERGED>

11482

49°- 35° E

14° N

  MAY- 17              
NEWLY EMERGED>

11483

52°- 38° E

26° S

  MAY- 17              
NEWLY EMERGED>

11484

90°- 79° E

12° N

  MAY-19              
                  FILAMENTS    
                         
                         

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

CURRENT STATUS: Immidiate CME effects ( as described below) will lkely continue until MAY- 11." LATENCY"will END appr. on MAY 10. ( LATENCY = time between latest CME impact until tectonic plates will begin to cool down and contract again and friction earthquakes will become likely) . WARNING: STRONGER EARTHQUAKES WITH MAGNITUDES UP TO M 8.0 MUST BE EXPECTED THE DAYS AFTER, those also might by capable to TRIGGER TSUNAMIS!

SOLAR ACTIVITY: Since End of April, HIGH ERUPTIVE SUN ACTIVITY CREATED SEVERAL SMALLER CME each day.On MAY- 08, these activities began to DECREASE FOR THE MOMENT, while new sun spots are forming out. The latest CME of this latest activity phase is expected to arrive until May 10  
             
  LAST FORECAST RELATED EVENT >>

CME - NR 39/ 12

MAY- 08- 09 2012

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

  "LATENCY"= EARTHQUAKES ABOVE M 6.0 ARE POSSIBLE BUT RATHER UNLIKELY  
ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

REGIONS "C" and " D"

LOW- MEDIUM

C><D><E   ALERT LEVEL ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  
 

MAJOR SUDDEN STORMS

LONG. : 15°- 135 ° WEST < VOLCANISM/ QUAKES > PLATE BOUNDARIES OF   INCREASING!  

WARM

HOT

DRY

CENTRAL AMERICA

< GEOGRAPHIC >

CARIBBEAN, COCOS  

13 MAY- 2012

 

SUDDEN (ALPINE) MELTING

WEST COAST OF SOUTH

These forcasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

ATLANTIC WEST  

M 5.5- > 7.5

2-3 (Latency?)  

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

AND NORTH AMERICA N &S- AMERICA  

14 MAY- 2012

 

ELECTROMAGNETIC EFFECTS

SECONDARY REGIONS :

SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5- >7.0

CME ARRIVAL ?  

RADIO BLACKOUTS

EURASIA EURASIA WEST  

15 MAY- 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

ATLANTIC WEST *REGIONS> see definition below ATLANTIC WEST >< AFRICA  

M 5.5- > 7.5

LATENCY END ( 2-3)  
                             
 

CME LATENCY EFFECTS:

DATE LAST CME ARRIVAL NUMBER STRENGTH APPROACHING CMEs   ARRIVALS EXPECTED ON EARTHQUAKE LATENCY* FROM * UNTIL*  
  (ONLY AFTER MULTIPLE CME EVENTS) 20120503- 11 36 - 40/12 130 nT 01- 02 ( 40 and 41 ? //12)   MAY- 11- 12 MAY- 14? YES NO

MAY 10

MAY- 13?

 
                 

*ESTIMATED

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:

TODAY`s CME ARRIVALS (UTC) :

  NEW: OVERALL SOLAR ACTIVITY >> :

QUIET

<< (SOLAR ERUPTIONS)  
    NUMBER ACE (Mag) GOEShp   note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated  

QUIET

          NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:  

UNSETTLED

  ONGOING MINOR CME IMPACTS  

ALERTS:

CURRENT

LAST 24 h

REPORT/LINK

 

MINOR STORM

 

APPROACHING CMEs:

 

ELECTRON STORM

NONE

NONE

NASA/ GOES 15

 

MAJOR STORM

  NUMBER ARRIVAL* STRENGTH*  

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE

NONE

   
            S. RADIATION STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 

REMARKS:

    40/12 MAY 13- 15 MEDIUM  

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 

 

      RADIO BLACKOUTS

NONE

NONE

spaceweather.com

 
* DAY TIME: UTC DAY      

 

 
     

 

 

 

                     

2012

MONTH:

MAY

 

DAY:

12

   

TERRESTRIAL

 
               

SECTION 1 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

                   

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!
  EXTERNAL SOURCES:  

EARTHQUAKES:

            EMSC NEIC  

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.8 - TONGA REGION - 2012-05-12 14:34 UTC        

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

                    EMSC  
NEW: EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ NORT WEST GREECE- near City of Louros MAY 12- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O:   HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.0 - GREECE - 2012-05-12 22:48 UTC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ WESTERN TURKEY MAY 12- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O:

06

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 2.8 - WESTERN TURKEY - 2012-05-12 14:45 UTC  

MEDIA REPORTS

                      20120512 report by: stuff.co.nz  

AUSTRALIA- Swarm of quakes rattles South Island

A swarm of earthquakes has rattled the South Island but seismologists don't believe there is any cause for alarm. The latest quake struck just before 3pm and was centred in the Christchurch suburb of Cashmere. It measured 3.9 on the Richter scale but was strongly felt across the city as it occurred at a depth of just 5km. There were no immediate reports of damage from the quake but it left residents rattled as it was the first big aftershock to hit the city in some months. Online notice boards immediately lit up with comments from residents spooked by the quake: ''Biggest felt in ages,'' one poster wrote. ''The noise was huge,'' said another. ...read more...

 
     

STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

NO TROPICAL STORM REPORTED SO FAR

click here for today s European Weather situtation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com  

GEOLOGY

               
                      20120511 report by: thewatchers  

70 percent of beaches eroding on Hawaiian islands Kauai, Oahu, and Maui

An assessment of coastal change over the past century has found 70 percent of beaches on the islands of Kaua’i, O’ahu, and Maui are undergoing long-term erosion, according to a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and University of Hawai’i (UH) report. Scientists from the USGS and the School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST) at UH studied more than 150 miles of island coastline (essentially every beach) and found the average rate of coastal change – taking into account beaches that are both eroding and accreting – was 0.4 feet of erosion per year from the early 1900s to 2000s. Of those beaches eroding, the most extreme case was nearly 6 feet per year near Kualoa Point, East O’ahu....read more...

 

 

SOLAR

           

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

    SOLAR ACTIVITIES FLARES / X-RAY EVENTS:   unnumbered CH on 20120512/ STARMAP by: Solen.info    

SOLAR PARAMETERS

  solar data by: solen.info

CMEs:

CLASS TOTAL:      
SUNSPOT NUMBER

85

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

452-623

none

C

09

     
SOLAR FLUX

129

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 4.9

approaching:

M

 

     
PLANETARY "A" INDEX

11

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

65- 115 nT

2

X

     

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS:

     

NEW CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 
REMARKS: ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES EARTH FACING ON: CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:   solen.info/ NOAA/TODAY`S ALERTS >>  
  LONGITUDE LATITUDE   NUMBER LATITUDE: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING FADING  
CME Nr.: 40/12

11476

22° -36° W

11° N

PROMINENCE/ FILAMENT ERUP. MAY 11 MAY-11/23:54 SCORP MAY 13- 15   CH 515 T.EQU. CLOSED MAY- 02 MAY- 06- 07 MAY- 12  
 

11477

21°- 07° E

10° N

  MAY- 14         CH 516 T.EQU. CLOSED. MAY- 08 MAY 9-10 MAY- 12  
 

11478

30°- 16° E

24° S

  MAY- 14         N-P - CH- EXT- NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION > MAY- 13    
 

11479

54° - 40° E

14° N

  MAY- 16         SP - CH- EXT- SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION > ----    
 

11480

82°- 32° W

17° S

            RECURR.= RECURRENT T.EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL  
                         
                  FILAMENTS LDE FILAMENT ERUPTION NEAR AR 11476 and 11480  

SATELLITE IMAGES

MAY- 11 2012 note: not all sat images might be displayed! If so- refresh th side or click in the direct link above!  

 

 

ACTIVE REGION:

CME at:

20120512/ 02:54 UTC 20120511/ 20:30 UTC 20120511/ 23:00 UTC 20120512/ 00:05 UTC  

SPACE FOR REMARKS OR VIDEO SOURCES

 

AR 11476

23: 54

 


 
TRACKING NUMBER

40/12

 

<< The overall activity of the Sun has decreased since May 08- a typical fluctuation of around 7- 10 days, after that the Sun usually becomes wuite for another 7- 10 days I want top to research, whether these periods are regularly.

Just AR 11476 was still quite active while crossing the central meridian on May 11with several C flares but just one minor CME during the day. Filament activities/ instabilities were observed beginning after 18h UTC in the regions of AR 11476 and AR 11480 and lasting until midnight.. The event began to peak at 23:00 UTC- with a larger prominence involving AR 11480.The eruption was not associated with any X ray burst. STEREO had a transmission gap during this event. Later images show a significant major CME expanding into space after 2:00 UTC.

 

SUN COORDINATES:

   

09° -23° W

11° N

   

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

   
PROMINENCES NONE    

SIDERIC DIRECTION:

SCORPIUS (1) STEREO- Ahead " (2) SDO /AIA comp. (3) SDO /AIA 1600 (4) SDO /AIA comp.    

ARRIVAL (estimated):

MAY- 13- 14

please note: sorry- Images of STEREO SPACECRAFT CAN NOT BE IMPLEMENTED, as STEREO operators archive incoming images later under a different URLs. Click on link: STEREO- Ahead "instead to view images on your own !

   
               
                             
             

 

 

 

SEKTION 3 (RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

     

CURRENT STATUS: Immidiate CME effects ( as described below) will lkely continue until MAY- 11." LATENCY"will END appr. on MAY 10. ( LATENCY = time between latest CME impact until tectonic plates will begin to cool down and contract again and friction earthquakes will become likely) . WARNING: STRONGER EARTHQUAKES WITH MAGNITUDES UP TO M 8.0 MUST BE EXPECTED THE DAYS AFTER, those also might by capable to TRIGGER TSUNAMIS!

 

SOLAR ACTIVITY: Since End of April, HIGH ERUPTIVE SUN ACTIVITY CREATED SEVERAL SMALLER CME each day.On MAY- 08, these activities began to DECREASE FOR THE MOMENT, while new sun spots are forming out. The latest CME of this latest activity phase is expected to arrive until May 10

 
               
  LAST FORECAST RELATED EVENT >>

CME - NR 39/ 12

MAY- 08- 09 2012

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

  "LATENCY"= EARTHQUAKES ABOVE M 6.0 ARE POSSIBLE BUT RATHER UNLIKELY  
ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

REGIONS "C" and " D"

LOW- MEDIUM

C><D><E   ALERT LEVEL ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  
 

MAJOR SUDDEN STORMS

LONG. : 15°- 135 ° WEST < VOLCANISM/ QUAKES > PLATE BOUNDARIES OF   INCREASING!  

WARM

HOT

DRY

CENTRAL AMERICA

< GEOGRAPHIC >

CARIBBEAN, COCOS  

12 MAY- 2012

 

SUDDEN (ALPINE) MELTING

WEST COAST OF SOUTH

These forcasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

ATLANTIC WEST  

M 5.5- 7.0

CME ARRIVAL ?  

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

AND NORTH AMERICA N &S- AMERICA  

13 MAY- 2012

 

ELECTROMAGNETIC EFFECTS

SECONDARY REGIONS :

SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5- > 7.5

2-3  

RADIO BLACKOUTS

EURASIA EURASIA WEST  

14 MAY- 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

ATLANTIC WEST *REGIONS> see definition below ATLANTIC WEST >< AFRICA  

M 5.5- 7.0

CME ARRIVAL ?  
                             
 

CME LATENCY EFFECTS:

DATE LAST CME ARRIVAL NUMBER STRENGTH APPROACHING CMEs   ARRIVALS EXPECTED ON EARTHQUAKE LATENCY* FROM * UNTIL*  
  (ONLY AFTER MULTIPLE CME EVENTS) 20120503- 10 36 - 38/12 130 nT 01- 02 ( 3940//12)   MAY- 11- 12 MAY- 14? YES NO

MAY 10

MAY- 13?

 
                 

*ESTIMATED

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:

TODAY`s CME ARRIVALS (UTC) :

  NEW: OVERALL SOLAR ACTIVITY >> :

ACTIVE

<< (SOLAR ERUPTIONS)  
    NUMBER ACE (Mag) GOEShp   note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated  

QUIET

  39/12 minor 09:00 UTC   NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:  

UNSETTLED

  ONGOING MINOR CME IMPACTS  

ALERTS:

CURRENT

LAST 24 h

REPORT/LINK

 

MINOR STORM

 

APPROACHING CMEs:

 

ELECTRON STORM

NONE

NONE

NASA/ GOES 15

 

MAJOR STORM

  NUMBER ARRIVAL* STRENGTH*  

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE

NONE

   
            S. RADIATION STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 

REMARKS:

    40/12 MAY 13- 15 MEDIUM  

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 

 

      RADIO BLACKOUTS

NONE

NONE

spaceweather.com

 

CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS/ARRIVALS

CME TRACKING >

 

ARRIVAL AT SAT

 

IMPACT >

         

TRACKING NR.:

39/12

SOLAR EVENT DATA

CME EVENT

APPROACHING >

ACE

GOES

 

20120512

< IMPACT > CME ARRIVAL DATA (EARTH)  
MINOR CME on MAY 08-09 AR LONG LAT. DATE

EVENT DESCRIPTION (CME)

ARRIVAL

ARRIVAL  

> 100 nT

MAIN PEAK VALUE EST. MASS* MAIN IMPACT REGIONS  
SUMMARY OF MULTIPLE EVENTS in: AR 11476

11476

19°-05° E

11° N

MAY-09/ 14:14 UTC

prominences/ impulsive flare

APR- 12

03/06/09 UTC

 

13:30- 24:00

13:30- 21:00

115 nT

83

CENTRAL AMERICA  
          STRONG (3)     18°- 180°W 18°- 135°W     90° W ( REGION"D")  

 

DURATION:         SECONDARY IMPACT REGIONS> ANEIGHBORED PLATES  
* DAY TIME: UTC DAY                          

3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT

 
EXPLANATIONS>

Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.

Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./ Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME or CME cluster/  
HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST> INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions! STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER CME IMPACT (LATENCY!) on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES between the RED and the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Minor ones between the yellow and green regions  

REGIONS

REGION "A"

REGION "B"

REGION "C"

REGION "D"

REGION "E"

REGION "F"

related CME  
REGIONS COVERED BY LATEST CME IMPACT> EASTERN EURASIA- CHINA- JAPAN- PHILIPPINES- INDONESIA- AUSTRALIA CENTRAL/ EAST ALASKA - KAMCHATKA- JAPAN/EAST- AUSTRALIA/ (WEST)- NZ, PNG.- FIJI- CENTRAL- USA+ WEST COAST- EASTERN PACIFIC- CANADA- EASTERN USA-CNTRL. & SOUTH AMERICA/ CARIBBEAN/ /COLUMBIA,/PERU CENTRAL EUROPE/ AFRICA, WEST ATLANTIC WEST - SOUTH AMERICA/ EAST INDIA & INDIAN OCEAN- AFRICA (EAST), ARABIA ASIA MINOR

ARRIVAL:

 
RELATED TECTONIC BOUNDARIES> PACIFIC< EURASIA>< INDO-AUSTRALIA NORTH AMERICA (W) >< EURASIA (E) ><PACIFIC (E) NORTH AMERICA/ incl. Microplates ><PACIFIC AFRICA >< CARRIBEAN >< SOUTH AMERIA >< NASCA>< COCOS EURASIA <> N-AMERICA/WESTCARRIBEAN ><AFRICA EURASIA><ARABIA ><INDO-AUSTRALIA

20120512

 
UTC TIME ZONES > .. ....... ... ... ...... .. CME Nr.:  

LONGITUDES>

120° E- 90° E

135° E- 180° - 135° W

90° W- 135° W

45° W- 90° W

45° W - 00° W- 45° E

45° E- 90° E

39/12

 
REMARKS >    

 

 

 

                     

2012

MONTH:

MAY

 

DAY:

11

   

TERRESTRIAL

 
               

SECTION 1 >

- ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG -

                   

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!
  EXTERNAL SOURCES:  

EARTHQUAKES:

            EMSC NEIC  

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.5 - CYPRUS REGION - 2012-05-11 18:48 UTC        

MEDIA REPORTS

                      20120511 report by: indianexpress  
 

Moderate quake jolts northeast, 2 hurt, several buildings damaged in Assam

An earthquake measuring 5.4 on the Richter scale today jolted some northeastern states, including Assam, in which at least two labourers were injured in a wall collapse while several buildings were damaged. Seismological sources from Shillong said the earthquake with epicentre at Nagaon's Katiaholi and Puronigodam alongside the hills of Karbi Anglong district occurred at 6.11 pm. ...read more...

 

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

                    EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ SANTORIN MAY 11- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O: 01 HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 2.9 - DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE - 2012-05-11 01:02 UTC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ WESTERN TURKEY MAY 11- 2012 QUAKES ABOVE M 2.O: 05 HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.4 - WESTERN TURKEY - 2012-05-11 16:16 UTC  
                     

STORMS/ HURRICANES/ CYCLONES>

NO TROPICAL STORM REPORTED SO FAR

click here for today s European Weather situtation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com  
                        20120512 reports by: chinadaily  

37 dead in NW China storms

MINXIAN, Gansu - The death toll had risen to 37 and 19 others remained missing as of 6 pm Friday after hail and torrential rains battered a mountainous county in Northwest China, authorities said late Friday.As of 6 pm, the storms had affected 358,000 people in Minxian county, Gansu province, forcing the evacuation of nearly 30,000 local residents. Another 40 people had been hospitalized. Roads were blocked, houses collapsed, and farmland destroyed by the extreme weather, according to Minxian county civil affairs bureau. China's National Disaster Reduction Committee and the Civil Affairs Ministry raised the level of emergency response from level 4 to level 3 on Friday afternoon. A disaster relief team led by Sun Shaocheng, deputy minister of civil affairs and consisted of officials from nine ministries is heading to the disaster-hit area. About 2,000 officials, as well as 800 soldiers and militiamen, have trudged through mud and water into storm-battered areas to rescue trapped villagers....read more...

 
                        20120511 reports by: earthobservatory.nasa.  

In early May 2012, a dust storm blew over the Middle East, particularly east of Damascus. The storm covered most of Syria, and extended into Iraq, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this natural-color image on May 11. The dust was thickest in the west, especially over Jordan and northern Saudi Arabia, and thinning toward the east.Source points for this storm aren’t obvious in this image, but the vast sand seas of the Arabian Peninsula provide plentiful material for dust plumes. In addition, impermanent rivers and salt lakes occur throughout the region. The fine sediments from these features, as well as from the Tigris and Euphrates floodplains, can feed dust storms...read more...

 

ARCHEOLOGY

                   
Wik: /Tical/Xultun                       20120510 report by: .bbc.co.uk  

Mayan art and calendar at Xultun stun archaeologists

Archaeologists working at the Xultun ruins of the Mayan civilisation have reported striking finds, including the oldest-known Mayan astronomical tables. The site, in Guatemala, includes the first known instance of Mayan art painted on the walls of a dwelling. A report in Science says it dates from the early 9th Century, pre-dating other Mayan calendars by centuries. Such calendars rose to prominence recently amid claims they predicted the end of the world in 2012. The Mayan civilisation occupied Central America from about 2000BC until its decline and assimilation following the colonisation by the Spanish from the 15th Century onwards. It still holds fascination, with many early Mayan sites still hidden or uncatalogued. ...read more...

 
             

 

 

 

SEKTION 2/ 3 (RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

     

CURRENT STATUS: Immidiate CME effects ( as described below) will likely continue until MAY- 11.A longer " LATENCY"will follow appr. from MAY 10- 14.( LATENCY = time between latest CME impact until tectonic plates will begin to cool down and contract again and friction earthquakes will become likely) . WARNING: STRONGER EARTHQUAKES WITH MAGNITUDES UP TO M 8.0 MUST BE EXPECTED THE DAYS AFTER, those also might by capable to TRIGGER TSUNAMIS!

 

SOLAR ACTIVITY: Since End of April, HIGH ERUPTIVE SUN ACTIVITY CREATED SEVERAL SMALLER CME each day.On MAY- 08, these activities began to DECREASE FOR THE MOMENT, while new sun spots are forming out. The latest CME of this latest activity phase is expected to arrive until May 10

 
               
  LAST FORECAST RELATED EVENT >>

CME - NR 38/ 12 (2)

MAY- 08- 2012

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

  "LATENCY"= EARTHQUAKES ABOVE M 6.0 ARE RATHER UNLIKELY ( DELAY)  
ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

"REGION" D" 90° W

LOW- MEDIUM

B><D><E   ALERT LEVEL ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  
 

MAJOR SUDDEN STORMS

MAIN LONG. : 90° WEST < VOLCANISM/ QUAKES > PLATE BOUNDARIES OF   INCREASING!  

WARM

HOT

DRY

CENTRAL AMERICA

< GEOGRAPHIC >

CARIBBEAN, COCOS  

11 MAY- 2012

 

SUDDEN (ALPINE) MELTING

WEST COAST OF SOUTH

These forcasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

PACIFIC  

M 5.5- > 7.5

LATENCY /CME?  

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

AND NORTH AMERICA N &S- AMERICA-WEST  

12 MAY- 2012

 

ELECTROMAGNETIC EFFECTS

SECONDARY REGIONS :

SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5- > 7.5

LATENCY?  

RADIO BLACKOUTS

JAPAN, VANUATU, FIJI JAPAN, VANUATU, FIJI  

13 MAY- 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

ATLANTIC WEST *REGIONS> see definition below ATLANTIC WEST >< AFRICA  

M 5.5- > 7.5

LATENCY?  
                             
 

CME LATENCY EFFECTS:

DATE LAST CME ARRIVAL NUMBER STRENGTH APPROACHING CMEs   ARRIVALS EXPECTED ON EARTHQUAKE LATENCY* FROM * UNTIL*  
  (ONLY AFTER MULTIPLE CME EVENTS) 20120503- 10 36 - 38/12 130 nT 01- 02 ( 3940//12)   MAY- 11- 12   YES NO

MAY 10

MAY- 13?

 
                 
*ESTIMATED
 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/Magnetometer - GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:

TODAY`s CME ARRIVALS (UTC) :

  NEW: OVERALL SOLAR ACTIVITY >> :

ACTIVE

<< (SOLAR ERUPTIONS)  
    NUMBER ACE (Mag) GOEShp   note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated  

QUIET

          NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:  

UNSETTLED

  ONGOING MINOR CME IMPACTS  

ALERTS:

CURRENT

LAST 24 h

REPORT/LINK

 

MINOR STORM

 

APPROACHING CMEs:

 

ELECTRON STORM

NONE

NONE

NASA/ GOES 15

 

MAJOR STORM

  NUMBER ARRIVAL* STRENGTH*  

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE

NONE

   
            S. RADIATION STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 

REMARKS:

    39/12 MAY 11-12 MEDIUM  

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 

 

      RADIO BLACKOUTS

NONE

R 1

spaceweather.com

 

SATELLITE IMAGES

May- 11 2012 note: not all sat images might be displayed! If so- refresh th side or click in the direct link above!  

 

 

ACTIVE REGION:

CME at:

         

SPACE FOR REMARKS OR VIDEO SOURCES

 
             


 
TRACKING NUMBER      

SUN COORDINATES:

   

NORTH EAST and S/W quadrant

     

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

   
FLARE      

SIDERIC DIRECTION:

  (1) STEREO- Ahead " (2) SDO /AIA comp. (3) SDO /AIA 1600 (4) SDO /AIA comp.    

ARRIVAL (estimated):

 

please note: sorry- Images of STEREO SPACECRAFT CAN NOT BE IMPLEMENTED, as STEREO operators archive incoming images later under a different URLs. Click on link: STEREO- Ahead "instead to view images on your own !

   
             
* DAY TIME: UTC DAY      

VIDEO ( May- 09- 2012) by: / DESGASIFICACION VOLCAN L2 5 12 A (DEGASSING AT NEW EL HIERRO submarine volcano/ Islas canarias- part 2

 
             

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

        solar data by: solen.info        

SOLAR PARAMETERS

  SOLAR ACTIVITIES CLASS TOTAL:        
SUNSPOT NUMBER

120

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

521-568

FLARES >

C

20

     
SOLAR FLUX

136

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 6.1

 

M

 

     
PLANETARY "A" INDEX

15

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

55- 105 nT

 

X

     

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS:

     

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 
REMARKS: ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES EARTH FACING ON: CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:   solen.info/ NOAA/TODAY`S ALERTS >>  
  LONGITUDE LATITUDE   NUMBER LATITUDE: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING FADING  
 

11475

39° - 54 ° W

06° N

reemerged           CH 515 T.EQU. RECURR. MAY- 02 MAY- 06- 07    

11476

09° -23c° W

11° N

<<read HIGHLY CRITICAL MAY 11         CH 516 T.EQU. RECURR. MAY- 08 MAY 9-10    
 

11477

35°- 21° E

10° N

  MAY- 14         N-P - CH- EXT- NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION > MAY- 13    
 

11478

43°- 29° E

24° S

  MAY- 14         SP - CH- EXT- SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION > ----    
NEWLY EMERGED >

11479

67- 53 E

14° N

  MAY- 16         RECURR.= RECURRENT T.EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL  
NEWLY EMERGED >

11480

12°- 26° W

17° S

                 
                  FILAMENTS      
                             
REMARKS >