-----------------------

 

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alien- homepage.de- Earth quake statistics- -SUN SPOT ACTIVITY- 11- years solar cycle- last update: NOV- 08- 2012- -07:00 UTC copyright: reserved

background image: Aurora Borealis /COMMONS / wikipedia
open source earthquake forecast project created and provided by: alien-homepage.de-

 

 

2012/ 13 - MAXIMUM OF 11- YEAR SOLAR CYCLE

SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG

ARCHIVE
NOVEMBER - 2012

 

NASA STEREO BEACON

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SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG/ ARCHIVES:
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NOV
2011 >
2010 >
NOTE: I WILL APPLY A NEW ARCHIVE SYSTEM IN 2012. CLICK ON THE BUTTON (right) FOR THE NEW ARCHIVE DIRECTORY! >

Note: Due to the high data amount in these monthly archives, I am currently trying to improve this by putting the single archives into collapsible panels.

Also I will split the monthly archive into 4 weekly ones. click on the following tabs to open the collapsible panels. You can report to my blog, if you should still experience problems when loading this page.

click here to open panel with graphics for volcano maps map , Earthquake statistic NOVEMBER 2012
   

True and REAL TIME graphic solution, that makes obvious the coincidences of CME impacts and extraordinary natural phenomenons such as heavier Earthquakes, volcano eruptions, hurricanes. sudden ice meltdowns (floddings) and others

( click on the graphic top to enlarge it):

INTERNAL MAPS: click on the images or links below to get to my large regional maps, where you find all volcanoes around the world with descriptions , webcams and much more such as ancients sites! . Weekly regular activity updates, special earthquakes events with many functions

world volcano map 1.0

world volcano map version 2.0

Europe and Western Asia Africa and Arabic peninsula Central America and Mexico South America- Northern part South America- Southern part Central America and Mexico Northern America Kamchatka peninsula Japan region Indonesia and Philippines Australia and Southern Pacific

- incident graphic will be completed at the end of the month-

SPACECRAFTS:
SoHO
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
SDO /AIA
Solar Dynamics Observatory
STEREO
Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory
GOES
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites

ACE

 
Advanced Composition Explorer

^^ internal Earthquake statistics- with Sun activity curves : green = SUNSPOT NUMBER, Pink= SOLAR FLUX, blue= PLANETARY A INDEX

click here to see some of the paradox observations made during that solar cycle first possibly by observatory sopacecrafts: : CORONAL HOLES THOSE REAPPEAR DURING SEVERAL SOLAR ROTATION PERIODS ON THE SAME HELIOGRAPHIC POSITION

 

 

VIDEOS/ REPORTS OF THE WEEK- NOVEMBER 2012:

VIDEOS/ REPORTS OF THE WEEK- NOVEMBER-2012:

 

GUATEMALA Earthquake 2012: Temblor Death Toll Rises To 48-

 
  posted: NOV- 12- 2012: "2012 NATURAL HAZARDS- MOST DANGEROUS: SOLAR PROTON ERUPTIONS" ( collection of historical events)
 

 

NOV 21- 28- 2012

: Solar activity strongly increased on November 20- 2012: Solar activity strongly increased on November 20- 2012

 

AR 11619 produced a major M 2 flare with a significant Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) on November 20 and afterwards. AR 11618. produced several minor short impulsive flares on Nov- 20 and two MAJOR M class flares on November 21, while just crossing the central solar meridian .

3 of 4 CMEs unleashed during these events were fully halo and reached the Earth on November 24- 26 .During November 24 and 30 several other minor and larger CME impacts from flares and filament eruptions followed, and so the basic earthquake theory - heated up the tectonic plates along their impact longitudes. However typical seismic/ volcanic tremors increased in soon after (with more than 200 tremor quakes yet near Dodocanese islands) while global magnitudes (peak values) thus: disastrous contracting quakes were low since then. ( latency) The three CMEs impacts had a large impact in the geomagnetic field, likel< supported by an additional temporary positive component created by the latest protion event from Nov 08.- 12. The Electron flux higher than 1000 sfu following this proton event lasted until November 14. Allthough that electron flux going back to normal values  usually associated to a drop of geomagnetic density energy and therefore an indicator  also for a significant back- cooling down of the tectonic plates did not happen yet due to the new CME impacts. Two more CMEs were observed on Nov 26 and 27 those will likely arrive on Nov 30 . s)

 

NOV 14- 2012

MINOR SOLAR PROTON OUTBREAK/ EVENT

 

Global Earthquake activity  (currently mainly mainly tremors?) and volcanic activity increased dramatically after Nov 08. The typical late "electron invasion" following the latest proton storm between Nov 08- 12 began to become effective on Nov. 14- 26. . More (thunder-) storms and volcanic activities, glacial meltdowns and other effects are expectabel for the coming days, while destructive earthquake activities are expected to be CURRENTLY rather low due to tectonic heating effects by ongoing impacts of several CMEs. The last siginificant CME impact was on Nov 30/ Dec 01. Stronger quakes - potentially exceeding M 7.5 are expectable with LATENCY ( means: will likely follow, when tectonic plates will cool down again) . This point in time can only be estimated and will likely be the case from Dec 04 - Dec 06 on, However one or more stronger quakes exceeding magnitude 7.5 should be seriously expected in a time period from December 04- 10- 2012. The most likely event region might be along the 135.°- 150. ° longitude West ( the South Eastern Pacific- P.N.G region , Vanuatu) including the aneighbored longitudes . including ALASKA and the South and North American Pacific coasts. (This experimental forecast is based on solar energetic impacts and is without warranty)

-: Two MINOR CMEs arrived one after another on NOVEMBER 12/ 13: The first solar wind shock occured after 15:00 UTC, a second shock followed after 22:00 UTC.As a typical effect after protons storms inducing a positively charged that makes the geomag field vulnerable for beta impacts, , both (more or less neutraly charged) BUT RATHER WEAK CMEs impacted fully into the geomagnetic field

 

NOV- 12- 2012

NOV- 14: two or more minor CMEs are expected to impact on the following days.- No further CMEs were observed on NOV- 14

 

The total sun activity STRONGLY increased following the strong PROTON OUTBURST on November 08. . The Sun spot number reached 188 on November 12- the highest value measured in 2012 yet. Between NOV 09 and 12, several solar flares and filament eruptions produced MINOR CMEs those NEVERTHELESSFULLY impacted into the GEOMAGNETIC FIELD due to the positive charged geomag component created by the recent proton impact on NOV 08. New region 11613 just rotates in at the Eastern limb . Its activity suddenly increased on Nov 12 and produced 3 "M" class flares yet on NOV 12/13. The strongest event yet was measured as M 6.0. NOAA issued an R2 radio blackout warning on  November 13.

 

NOV- 08- 2012:

SOLAR PROTON OUTBREAK/ STORM

 

Another seldom PROTON eruption was observed after stronger  solar activities on Nov- 08.(read more in special report in NOV 08 blog below). NASA calls these PROTON eruptions a "new kind of solar eruption "CAPABLE FOR EVERYTHING". PROTON EVENTS were first realized in 2005 , but could not be further tracked without satellite images showing the related solar events until NASA lounched several new satellites until 2012. NASA has recently issued only a small and not specified report about it this phenomenon, in which NASAmainly notes that it rather seems unlikely, that theSun would really be capable to eject protons as observed with such an energy and an acceleration up to more than HALF THE SPEED OF LIGHT and suggest the " geomoagnetic force between Sun and Earth as responsible for that. (see November blog) .

 

NOV 03- 2012

 

 

A major LDE filament eruption  began after  3:00 UTC along the Southern edge of CH 543 and CH 544 heaping up shortly a larger area in the South western quadrant covering about a 10th of the visible solar disc. The eruption was as often acomponied by a second event on the backside of the Sun- just diametrally as it seems.The event however has unleashed a significant CME that will arrive appr. on November 05- 06. remark: the CME had a strength of 145 nT upon arrival

 

 

click here to open and close collapsible panel with the archived "SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG" NOVEMBER 22- 30- 2012
/ eruptive proinence

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

NOVEMBER

 

DAY:

30

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

 

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.5 - TONGA - 2012-11-30 11:20:38 UTC

MAP:

EMSC

 

UNDER SURVEY: AFTER- EARTHQUAKE & SWARMS

 

 

 

 

MAIN EARTHQUAKE REGIONS

FREQUENCY/ OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

NUMBER EVENTS WITH PARTICULAR QUAKESHIGHER THAN M 2 AND EXCEEDING M 3.0:

EMSC

 

SOUTH EASTERN PACIFIC/ OTHER REGIONS

FREQUENT MAP

01

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 5.5 - TONGA - 2012-11-30 11:20:38 UTC  

REGION CHILE / ARGENTINE ( SA/ NASCA PLATE)

FREQUENT/ OCT- 2012 MAP

20

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.5 - ATACAMA, CHILE - 2012-11-30 20:29:30 UTC  

REGION PERU

FREQUENT MAP

01

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.6 - SOUTHERN PERU - 2012-11-30 09:02:52 UTC  

REGION INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES/SOUTHERN JAPAN

FREQUENT MAP

01

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.8 - OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN - 2012-11-30 11:42:58 UTC  

KAMCHATKA ISLANDS , KURIL ISLANDS NORTHERN JAPAN

FREQUENT MAP

01

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.6 - KAMCHATKA PENINSULA, RUSSIA - 2012-11-30 11:00:37 UTC  

EUROPE AND MAINLAND ASIA (EURASIAN PLATE)

SELDOM MAP 01 HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.3 - MYANMAR - 2012-11-30 03:52:11 UTC  

SECONDARY EARTHQUAKE REGIONS

FREQUENCY/ OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

NUMBER EVENTS WITH PARTICULAR QUAKESHIGHER THAN M 2 AND EXCEEDING M 3.0:

EMSC

 

CANADA, ALASKA/ JUAN DE FUCA PLATE

SOMETIMES MAP 04 HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.0- SOUTHERN ALASKA- 2012/11/30 14:27:05  

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012 MAP MAP

06

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.7- CENTRAL CALIFORNIA- 2012/11/30 10:40:03   

GULF OF MEXICO ( GOM)/ CARIBBEAN PLATER

VARYING MAP

--

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: --  

PANAMERICA

FREQUENT SINCE 2012 MAP

02

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.2 - OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR - 2012-11-30 08:26:24 UTC  

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

JULY 2012

MAP

25

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.5 - DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE - 2012-11-30 02:22:47 UTC  

NORTHERN ITALY

SINCE MAR 2012 MAP

06

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.1 - NORTHERN ITALY - 2012-11-30 00:02:40 UTC  

WESTERN TURKEY

PERMANENT( higher since 2011) MAP

13

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.4 - WESTERN TURKEY - 2012-11-30 15:42:46 UTC  

EASTERN TURKEY / Near city of VAN

PERMANENT MAP

03

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.0 - EASTERN TURKEY - 2012-11-30 13:18:07 UTC  

NORTHERN ATLANTIC (N-AMERICA/ EURASIAN PLATE)

MAINLY DURING SUMMERTIME MAP 01   M 4.4 - NORTH OF SVALBARD - 2012-11-30 20:07:15 UTC  

LARGER SWARMS BELOW M 3.0 / REGIONS:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

 

OTHER QUAKE SWARMS WITH MAGNITUDES > M 2.0 < M 3.0

EMSC

 

CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION

NOVEMBER - 14-2012 MAP

01

     

 

           
                     

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

note: allthough CME impacts are regularly coincident at least with TEMPORARY volcano acticity increases, my time does not allow to introduce such DETAILLED resp. "FINE TUNED" statistic reports

< stats

 

as required to communicate this. This section therefor can only refer to changes in "ALERT LEVELS" as published by GVP. Click on the buttons (right) to find more detailled internal reports: volcano watch (global statistics) and regional volcano maps (all volcanoes worldwide and current activities)

maps >

 
volcano-discovery/gadget

note: this report does NOTnecessarely represent all currently global active volcanoes!

      2012 report by: GVP  

 

Smithsonian / USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report

21 November-27 November 2012

New Activity/Unrest: | Chirpoi, Kuril Islands (Russia) | Cleveland, Chuginadak Island | Karymsky, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) | Kilauea, Hawaii (USA) | Paluweh, Lesser Sunda Islands (Indonesia) | Reventador, Ecuador | Ruapehu, North Island (New Zealand) | Stromboli, Aeolian Islands (Italy) | Tolbachik, Central Kamchatka (Russia) | Tongariro, North Island (New Zealand) 
Ongoing Activity: | Etna, Sicily (Italy) | Kizimen, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) | Manam, Northeast of New Guinea (SW Pacific) | Pagan, Mariana Islands | Sakura-jima, Kyushu | Santa María, Guatemala |Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia)

This page is updated on Wednesdays. Please see the GVP Home Page for news of the latest significant activity.

 

 

Wikipedia:

                 

 

           

20121201

report by:

internal  

GVP website back online!

Staff of the famous Smithsonian instuitute take their job easy:  On November 16- so the institute in a comment above the corrupt website- " many were schedulued for holidays"- others- so GVP on Nov 23 became ill. However all of them leaving their website behind with a corrupt code not containing any volcano updates . None - so GVP`s apologize on Nov 29- was left to " fix the problem". I don`t know how necessary that weekly report is for air traffick or other issues . But with the USgov. being the one and only central intelligence in all fields, there might be a global problem, if anything fails there. However the website problem just occured, when global volcano activity reached a decade`s peak around November 20- when at all 10 volcanoes NEWLY erupted resp. were set on RED ALERT and 3 others on yellow alert.

This activity peak followed a long period of solar activity and Earthbound CMEs- among that were alone 3 MAJOR DANGEROUS PROTON EVENTs since July 2012- during that the Earth interior  and the affected surface tectonics not really could cool down. The last proton event ( Nov 08- 12) was minor but was followed by several stronger Earth directed CMEs and a number of minor ones continuing to impact until Nov 30 thus keeping the Earts interior quite hot. Recent Sun activity degan  to decrease again periodically after November 16, while electrons from the previous proton event still continued to impact until Nov 27 ( likely the cause for the strong increase in global volcanism) Solar activity decreased further and last minor CME ( for the moment) impacted on Nov- 30. Tectonics have/ had the chance to cool down by and by and some expectable MAJOR EARTH QUAKES (remaining low during that period of heating = must be expected appr. from December 02 on.

 

                             

 

                     

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground. com Tropical Storm Bopha NOV- 25- 2012 WESTERN PACIFIC

75 MPH (+)

145.2° E 

3.8° N

APPR. 1200 KM EAST OF PHILIPPINES WSW 01    
(+) = storm speed was INCREASING (-) = storm speed was DECREASING = media report available (click on this symbol) CLICK HERE TO OPEN TODAY`s PRELIMINARY REPORT  

EARLY WINTER AND SNOWFALL- GLOBAL WARMING TAKING A REST?

       

20121129

report by:

washingtonpost

 

Moscow sees heaviest November snow in 50 years; wintry in Germany, central Europe

A major snowstorm has brought Moscow to a standstill, disrupting road and air travel in a city that’s no stranger to harsh wintry weather. The Associated Press reports that over 8 inches (27 cm) of snow fell in the Russian capital in the past 24 hours. That’s half of the city’s typical November snowfall. Moscow’s city hall has called it the biggest November snowstorm in half a century, and local forecasters expect the snow to continue into Friday. European media outlets have said Moscow could see snow totals of up to 22” (55 cm) by the end of this week.Wintry conditions have also extended westward into central Europe. In central and southern Germany, icy road conditions led to multiple accidents, including one death.This week’s winter onset comes after much of central Europe experienced an otherwise warm November. The German National Weather Service reports that temperatures this month have averaged about 1.5 degrees (F) above normal. Responsible for the winter conditions is low pressure system “Heike,” which carried Mediterranean moisture into cold air centered over Eastern Europe...read more...

 

                                 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2 - SOLAR

 

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

67

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

339-363

FLARES >

C

05

 

CH 546 TRANSEQU. DECAYING NOV- 24 NOV- 27

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

110

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 3.4

 

M

 

 

UNNUMB. NORTH DECAYING NOV-29 DEC- 02

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

01

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

80- 130 nT

CME impaxt

X

 

 

           

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) NOV 13- 17  

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) NOV 17-26  

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

NONE  

 

rotating out          

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

 

15620

71° - 85° W

12° S

Eai/beta-gamma

 

 

 

 

 

FILAMENT ERUPTIONS >

 

 

 

15621

11° E- 03° W

15° N

Hsx type/ alpha

 

                     
faded

15622

03° E - 11° W

25° S

 

NOV- 28        

SOLAR/ INTERPLANETARY MEASUREMENTS & DATA PLOTS:

 
 

15623

48° - 34° E

08° N

Dao/beta-gamma

DEC 03

 

 

 

  ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY

INCREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
faded

15624

24° - 10° E

19° N

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20121031

20121112

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

newly emerged

15625

48° - 34° E

13° N

Dao/beta-gamma

       

 

 

20121006

20121014

 

       

 

 

 

 

 

 

LATEST CME IMPACT MAP (internal) GOES ELECTRON FLUX:

 

       

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

       

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

       

 

           
                     
   
red letters = currently most active region abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class. alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**

 

PROTON EVENTS:

Proton flux is at normal values since Oct 12

 

 

*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson)

 

related ELECTRONS:

ELECTRON FLUX IS BACK TO NORMAL VALUES SINCE NOV- 26

 

                         
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2012 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1625 (N14E36, Dao/beta-gamma) remained the most flare-productive region with frequent low-level C-class subflares. It showed some intermediate spot decay during the period, but retained its beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 1620 (S13W81, Eai/beta-gamma) produced the largest flare of the period: a C5 at 30/1748 UTC as it approached the west limb. No significant changes were noted in the region, but analysis was hampered due to limb proximity. No significant changes were noted in Region 1623 (N08E35, Dao/beta-gamma). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. No Earth-directed CME activity occurred during the period. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Activity is expected to be low through 03 December with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare. At present, Regions 1620 and 1625 appear to be the most capable of producing isolated M-class activity.

 

 

                   

CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)- SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA

   

 

  LATEST CME IMPACT MAP (internal  

(date)

2 CMEs at:

NONE

ARRIVAL:

under analysis

POLARITY: UNKNOWN BETA ALPHA (PROTONS)  

 

GOES/ X-RAY FLUX: (Solar nuclear activity)  

internal remarks

PRELIMINARY REPORT

               

2012

alien-homepage.de

 

A minor CME feom a filament eruption on Nov arrived yesterday- Nov- 30- 2012 after 08 UTC and raised the geomagnetic density to a maximum of 130 nT. Impact regions were almost identical to last CME impact. Earthquake prediction parameters therefore remained almost the same.

 

 

 

 

 

de

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note,, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20121124 - 25

int. CME Nr. >>

84/85 a.b / 12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT: LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

135° - 150W/ 00- 35° W

MEDIUM

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

(THUNDER-) STORMS

SOUTH EAST PACIFIC

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

INDO/AUS >< PACIFIC

 

CME CLUSTER/ LATENCY

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

KAMCHATKA- JAPAN

SOUTH

N-AMERICA >< E-EURASIA

 

30- NOVEMBER - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

EUROPE WEST

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

EURASIA >< ATLANTIC

 

M 5.5 -> M 6.0 (POTENTIAL= 7.5)

CME IMPACT?

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES


EASTERN ATLANTIC

AFRICA >< CARIBBEAN

 

01- DECEMBER - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5 - M 7.5

rising ( 2-3)

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

global

global

 

02- DECEMBER - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

 

 

 

M 5.5 -> M 7.5

LATENCY END? prelim..)

 

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME

 

*REGIONS> see definition below  

 

 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES* CURRENT DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: INCREASING AFTER CME impacts    

 

*BY TECTONICS COOLING DOWN = RELATED TECTONIC PLATES ARE EXPECTED  TO BE HEATED BY CME IMPACT

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/GEO.magnetometer

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES> PROTON INFLUENCE MULTIPLE CME IMPACT

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS > PARADOX EFFECTS /LATENCIES EQ- LATENCY-  (UNTIL DEC- 02?)

 

QUIET

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels with no sign of the CME passage that was expected to begin around 30/0000 UTC. Solar winds were low in the approximate 326 to 363 km/s range. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 103 pfu.

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

ALL TEXT REPORTS /LINK

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 

S. RADIATION STORM

   

 

 

MAJOR STORM  

ELECTRONS> 1000pfu

 

 

   

 

  / PROTON STORM NONE NONE  

internal remarks:

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE NONE

 

 

      RADIO BLACKOUTS NONE NONE    
 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE NONE

 

 

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT

 

EXPLANATIONS>

Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.

Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./

Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME or CME cluster/

 

HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST>

INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions!

STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS

The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER a LATENCY period due to CME IMPACT on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES within the RED until the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Read "latency remarks"

 

REGIONS

REGION "A"

REGION "B"

REGION "C"

REGION" D"

REGION "E"

REGION "F"

 

 

REGIONS COVERED BY LATEST CME IMPACT>

EASTERN EURASIA- CHINA- INDONESIA- PHILIPPINES--AUSTRALIA WEST ALEUT./ KAMCHATKA- JAPAN/EAST- AUSTRALIA/ (EAST), PNG. NZL WESTERN USA+ WEST COAST- EASTERN PACIFIC- CANADA-ALASKA

EASTERN ATLANTIC/ PANAMERICA/ CENTRAL USA/ CENTRAL AND WEST PARTS OF SOUTH AMERICA

CENTRAL (WEST) EUROPE/ AFRICA, EAST ATLANTIC. CANARIES - CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA/ EAST

INDIA & INDIAN OCEAN- AFRICA (EAST), ARABIA ASIA MINOR

RELATED CME EVENT: 20121120/21

 

RELATED TECTONIC BOUNDARIES>

PACIFIC< EURASIA>< INDO-AUSTRALIA

NORTH AMERICA (W) >< EURASIA (E) ><PACIFIC (E)

NORTH AMERICA/ incl. Microplates ><PACIFIC

AFRICA >< CARRIBEAN >< SOUTH AMERIA >< NASCA>< COCOS

EURASIA <> N-AMERICA/WESTCARRIBEAN ><AFRICA

EURASIA><ARABIA ><INDO-AUSTRALIA

CME ARRIVAL:

 

UTC TIME ZONES >

..

.......

...

...

......

..

20121124 (ongoing!)

 

LONGITUDES>

120° E- 90° E

135° E- 180° - 135° W

90° W- 135° W

45° W- 90° W

45° W - 00° W- 45° E

45° E- 90° E

Nr.: 84 &85 a,b /12

 

     

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

NOVEMBER

 

DAY:

29

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

 

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 6.0 - NEAR N COAST OF NEW GUINEA, PNG. - 2012-11-29 11:10:28 UTC

MAP:

EMSC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EARTHQUAKES TODAY

REPORTS:

NAME of REGION

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME

MAGNITUDE

DEPTH

CATHEGORY

GOOGLE EARTH:

 

 

NEAR N COAST OF NEW GUINEA, PNG

3.88 S ; 145.47 E

2012-11-29 11:10:28 UTC M 6.0 10 km  

---

 

                 

UNDER SURVEY: AFTER- EARTHQUAKE & SWARMS

 

 

 

 

NAME OF REGION:

FREQUENCY/ OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

EVENTS WITH PARTICULAR QUAKESHIGHER THAN M 2 AND EXCEEDING M 3.0:

EMSC

 

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

JULY 2012

MAP

28

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.8 - DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE - 2012-11-29 12:00:47 UTC  

JAN MAYEN ISLAND REGION

NOVEMBER- 29- 2012 MAP 04 HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.6 - JAN MAYEN ISLAND REGION - 2012-11-29 02:23:57 UTC  

SOUTH EASTERN PACIFIC/ OTHER REGIONS

FREQUENT MAP

01

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 5.5 - FIJI REGION - 2012-11-29 00:30:30 UTC  

ALASKA REGION

FREQUENT MAP

08

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 5.0 NEAR ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA- 2012/11/29 23:22:36  

GULF OF MEXICO ( GOM)/ CARIBBEAN PLATER

VARYING MAP

02

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.2- PUERTO RICO REGION- 2012/11/29 18:51:45   

REGION CHILE / ARGENTINE ( SA/ NASCA PLATE)

FREQUENT/ OCT- 2012 MAP

14

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.8 - MENDOZA, ARGENTINA - 2012-11-29 00:09:40 UTC  

PANAMERICA

FREQUENT SINCE 2012 MAP

02

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 5.5 - OFFSHORE GUATEMALA - 2012-11-29 19:32:34 UTC  

WESTERN TURKEY

PERMANENT( higher since 2011) MAP

16

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.2 - WESTERN TURKEY - 2012-11-29 06:34:56 UTC  

EASTERN TURKEY / Near city of VAN

PERMANENT MAP

08

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.0 - EASTERN TURKEY - 2012-11-29 06:54:01 UTC  

REGION PERU

FREQUENT MAP

01

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 5.5 - NEAR COAST OF NORTHERN PERU - 2012-11-29 07:09:14 UTC  

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

 

OTHER QUAKE SWARMS WITH MAGNITUDES > M 2.0 < M 3.0

EMSC

 

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012 MAP

01

     

CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION

NOVEMBER - 14-2012 MAP

00

     

NORTHERN ITALY

SINCE MAR 2012 MAP

01

     
                     

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground. com Tropical Storm Bopha NOV- 25- 2012 WESTERN PACIFIC

65 MPH (+)

149.6° E 

4.1° N

APPR. 1500 KM EAST OF PHILIPPINES WSW TS    
(+) = storm speed was INCREASING (-) = storm speed was DECREASING = media report available (click on this symbol) CLICK HERE TO OPEN TODAY`s PRELIMINARY REPORT  
                                 

SAGITTARIUS " A" THE BLACK HOLE IN CENTRE OF MILKY WAY

        20121110

report by:

bbc.co.uk

 

Gas guzzler

Over the next few months the supermassive black hole at the centre of our galaxy will set about consuming a vast cloud of interstellar dust and gas - somewhat prosaically known as G2 - that has strayed too close to the singularity's event horizon. It promises to be quite a show as all the material that doesn't get sucked into oblivion will be swept up, swirled around in a gigantic catherine wheel, heated, stretched, shredded and finally fired out again in a dazzling display of gravitational power. Not something astronomers get to see every day according to Dr Karen Masters from the Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation at Portsmouth University."The black hole at the centre of our galaxy is normally quite quiet, docile even, but as this cloud begins to fall in the material is going to get very, very hot and it's going to start emitting all sorts of radiation. We don't know exactly what's going to happen but we know it's going to be spectacular." The galactic pyrotechnic display Sagittarius A* (as the black hole at the centre of the Milky Way is known) is about to unleash couldn't have come at a more opportune moment. NASA's latest space based X-ray telescope, NuSTAR, was only launched in June but is already offering a grandstand view of G2's death throes...read more...

 

                                 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2 - SOLAR

 

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

89

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

339-375

FLARES >

C

13

 

CH 546 TRANSEQU. DECAYING NOV- 24 NOV- 27

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

113

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 3.9

 

M

 

 

UNNUMB. NORTH DECAYING NOV-27  

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

03

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

70- 110 nT

 

X

 

 

           

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) NOV 13- 17  

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) NOV 17-26  

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

NONE  

 

rotating out          

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

 

15620

56° - 70° W

12° S

Esi-type/ beta-gamma

 

 

 

 

 

FILAMENT ERUPTIONS >

 

 

 

15621

24° - 10° E

15° N

Hsx type/ alpha

 

                     
 

15622

03° E - 11° W

25° S

 

NOV- 28        

SOLAR/ INTERPLANETARY MEASUREMENTS & DATA PLOTS:

 
 

15623

62° - 48° E

08° N

 

DEC 03

 

 

 

  ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY

INCREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
newly emerged

15623

24° - 10° E

19° N

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20121031

20121112

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

       

 

       

 

 

20121006

20121014

 

       

 

 

 

 

 

 

LATEST CME IMPACT MAP (internal) GOES ELECTRON FLUX:

 

       

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

       

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

       

 

           
                     
   
red letters = currently most active region abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class. alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**

 

ELECTRON FLUX IS BACK TO NORMAL VALUES SINCE NOV- 26

 

 

*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson)

 

PROTON EVENTS:

Proton flux is at normal values since Oct 12

 

                         
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2012 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M2/1f flare observed at 28/2136Z from Region 1620 (S13W69). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk including newly-numbered Region 1625 (N13E50). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec) with a chance for an isolated M-class flare.

 

 

                   

CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)- SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA

   

 

  LATEST CME IMPACT MAP (internal  

(date)

2 CMEs at:

 

ARRIVAL:

under analysis

POLARITY: UNKNOWN BETA ALPHA (PROTONS)  

 

GOES/ X-RAY FLUX: (Solar nuclear activity)  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note,, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20121124 - 25

int. CME Nr. >>

84/85 a.b / 12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT: LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

135° - 150W/ 00- 35° W

MEDIUM

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

(THUNDER-) STORMS

SOUTH EAST PACIFIC

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

INDO/AUS >< PACIFIC

 

CME CLUSTER/ LATENCY

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

KAMCHATKA- JAPAN

SOUTH

N-AMERICA >< E-EURASIA

 

29- NOVEMBER - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

EUROPE WEST

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

EURASIA >< ATLANTIC

 

M 5.5.- M 7.0

2-3 (POTENTIAL= > 7.5)

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES


EASTERN ATLANTIC

AFRICA >< CARIBBEAN

 

30- NOVEMBER - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5 -> M 6.0 (POTENTIAL= 7.5)

CME IMPACT?

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

global

global

 

01- DECEMBER - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

 

 

 

M 5.5 -> M 7.5

LATENCY END? prelim..)

 

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME

 

*REGIONS> see definition below  

 

 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES* CURRENT DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: INCREASING    

 

*BY TECTONICS COOLING DOWN = RELATED TECTONIC PLATES ARE EXPECTED  TO BE HEATED BY CME IMPACT

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/GEO.magnetometer

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES> PROTON INFLUENCE MULTIPLE CME IMPACT

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS > PARADOX EFFECTS /LATENCIES EQ- LATENCY-  (UNTIL DEC- 02?)

 

QUIET

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 403 km/s at 28/2126Z.

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

ALL TEXT REPORTS /LINK

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 

S. RADIATION STORM

   

 

 

MAJOR STORM  

ELECTRONS> 1000pfu

 

 

   

 

  / PROTON STORM NONE NONE  

internal remarks:

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE NONE

 

 

      RADIO BLACKOUTS NONE NONE    
 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE NONE

 

 

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

     

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

NOVEMBER

 

DAY:

28

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

 

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.0 - NORTHERN ALGERIA - 2012-11-28 23:15:31 UTC

MAP:

EMSC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EARTHQUAKES TODAY

REPORTS:

NAME of REGION

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME

MAGNITUDE

DEPTH

CATHEGORY

GOOGLE EARTH:

 

 

NORTHERN ALGERIA 36.97 N ; 5.10 E 2012-11-28 23:15:31 UTC M 5.0

15 km

unknown

---

 

                 

UNDER SURVEY: AFTER- EARTHQUAKE & SWARMS

 

 

 

 

NAME OF REGION:

FREQUENCY/ OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

EVENTS WITH PARTICULAR QUAKESHIGHER THAN M 2 AND EXCEEDING M 3.0:

EMSC

 

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

JULY 2012

MAP

106

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.3 - DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE - 2012-11-28 14:16:11 UTC  

WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA

NOVEMBER- 28- 2012 MAP

02

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.4 - WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA - 2012-11-28 23:50:51 UTC  

GULF OF MEXICO ( GOM)/ CARIBBEAN PLATER

VARYING MAP

04

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.0- DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REGION- 2012/11/28 00:20:46  

REGION CHILE / ARGENTINE ( SA/ NASCA PLATE)

FREQUENT/ OCT- 2012 MAP

17

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.4 - ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE - 2012-11-28 16:25:06 UTC  

PANAMERICA

FREQUENT SINCE 2012 MAP

04

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.6 - OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR - 2012-11-28 06:46:37 UTC  

WESTERN TURKEY

PERMANENT( higher since 2011) MAP

14

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.5 - WESTERN TURKEY - 2012-11-28 07:11:55 UTC  
NORTHERN PERU FREQUENT MAP

01

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 5.6 - NORTHERN PERU - 2012-11-28 03:09:49 UTC  

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

 

OTHER QUAKE SWARMS WITH MAGNITUDES > M 2.0 < M 3.0

EMSC

 

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012 MAP MAP

03

     

CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION

NOVEMBER - 14-2012 MAP

00

     

EASTERN TURKEY / Near city of VAN

PERMANENT MAP

07

     

NORTHERN ITALY

SINCE MAR 2012 MAP

01

     
                     

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

note: allthough CME impacts are regularly coincident at least with TEMPORARY volcano acticity increases, my time does not allow to introduce such DETAILLED resp. "FINE TUNED" statistic reports

< stats

 

as required to communicate this. This section therefor can only refer to changes in "ALERT LEVELS" as published by GVP. Click on the buttons (right) to find more detailled internal reports: volcano watch (global statistics) and regional volcano maps (all volcanoes worldwide and current activities)

maps >

 
REGION:
NAME/USGS datalink:
GEOGRAPHIC POSITION: LAT. / LONG.
VOLCANO NUMBER
VOLCANO TYPE
WEBCAM DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL MAP: LOCAL SURVEY  
Indonesia LOKON-EMPUNG 1°21'30"N/ 124°47'30"E 0606-10= Stratovolcano Hi* LOKON-EMPUNG
none

NOV- 28- 2012

 

Indonesia

CVGHM

 

Wikipedia:

                 

 

           

20121128

report by:

xinhuanet  

JAKARTA, Nov. 28 (Xinhua) -- Mount Lokon volcano in North Sulawesi erupted on Wednesday, spewing ash up to 3.5 kilometers to the sky, without report of fatality and evacuation, officials said. Head of National Volcanology Surono said that the eruption took place at 10:05 local time (0205 GMT). He said that the agency had asked people living near the crater to be alert. "We issued warning to the people living 2.5 kilometers from the crater," Surono told Xinhua by phone. Spokesman of National Disaster Management and Mitigation Agency (BNPB) Sutopo Purwo Nugroho confirmed that there was no evacuation after the eruption. "There is still no need for evacuation," he told Xinhua by phone. Indonesia, an archipelago country, is home to 129 active volcanoes....read more...

 

                             

 

REGION:
NAME/USGS datalink:
GEOGRAPHIC POSITION: LAT. / LONG.
VOLCANO NUMBER
VOLCANO TYPE
WEBCAM DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL MAP: LOCAL SURVEY

 

GUATEMALA SANTA MARIA 14°45'21"N/ 91°33'6"W 1042-03= Stratovolcano Hi* SANTA MARIA NOVEMBER 28- 2012

 

CENTRAM INSUMVEH

 

Wikipedia:

                 
           

20121204

report by:

GVP

 

INSIVUMEH reported in a special bulletin on 28 November that collapses of the fronts of lava flows on the flanks of Santa María's Santiaguito lava-dome complex generated pyroclastic flows and ash plumes that rose 2.4 km and drifted 30 km S, SW, and W. Activity decreased during 28-29 November. During 29-30 November blockavalanches were generated from the S edge of the crater. Pyroclastic flows generated ash plumes that rose 3.2 km and drifted 10-15 km SW, WSW, and W. Rumbling sounds were reported in areas 7 km away. During 1-2 December incandescent avalanches descended the SW lava dome. During 3-4 December a new lava flow in the crater was incandescent, and produced block avalanches and ash plumes which drifted 10 km W and SW.

 

                               
                     
volcano-discovery/gadget

note: this report does NOTnecessarely represent all currently global active volcanoes!

             

GLOBAL VOLCANO ACTIVITY REPORTS

         

20121118

report by:

volcanodiscovery

 

 

The Tokyo VAAC reported that an eruption of Tolbachik, Kamchatka began at around 10:45 (GMT). An initial ash plume rose to a height of 10 KM; ash was seen in satellite images. On 28th November, the KVERT raised the Alert Level to ORANGE. The KVERT reported that lava flows and ash explosions have broken out from the northern part of the 1975 eruptive fissure. Heavy ash falls (4 cm thick) have been reported in Krasny Yar, 35 KM away from Klyuchi village to the west. One Russian report stated “volcano’s top caldera is being filled with fresh and gushing lava” suggesting explosive eruptions and fire fountains from the summit.

One newspaper reported an eruption from Lokon-Empung volcano on November 28th. The eruption occurred at 10:05 (local time) sending an ash plume to a height of 3.5 KM a.s.l. Several ash plumes were also reported by the Darwin VAAC. Paluweh volcano, Indonesia produced 2 ash plumes on 28 November. The plume travelled 30 KM to the west.

5 explosions were detected from Fuego volcano, Guatemala producing weak, grey plumes to a height of 4.1 KM a.s.l. that drifted 5 KM southwest. Santa Maria, Guatemala, is still effusing 4 lava flows from its Santiaguito lava dome complex. Avalanches produced ash plumes that rose to heights of 3 KM and drifted 10 KM SSW. Incandescence was seen at night....read all..

 

Wikipedia:

                 

 

              20121127 (NONE!)

report by:

GVP  

14 November-?? November 2012

The Global Volcanism Program apologizes for the error message that was displayed this past week. Due to holidays and staff health concerns, the weekly report upload was not accomplished properly, and then no staff was available to fix the problem. Please view the reports using the RSS Feed link to the left, or on our Facebook page's RSS tab. The next report is expected to be posted on Wednesday as usual.

The GVP website was still inaccessible on November 29- 2012

 

                               

 

                     

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground. com Tropical Storm Bopha NOV- 25- 2012 WESTERN PACIFIC

55 MPH (+)

153.0°E

5.0° N

APPR. 1600 KM EAST OF PHILIPPINES W TS  
(+) = storm speed was INCREASING (-) = storm speed was DECREASING = media report available (click on this symbol) CLICK HERE TO OPEN TODAY`s PRELIMINARY REPORT  
                                 

HEATWAVE DROUGHT

             

20121128

report by:

heraldsun.

 

Mercury rises past 45C in Victoria

VICTORIANS have sweltered through the hottest November day in more than a century with the temperature soaring above 45C in some parts.Many rushed to beaches in a bid to cool down. But it wasn't all fun in the sun, with grass fires breaking out in Victoria's northwest. In Melbourne, the mercury crept towards 40C, with a high of 39.2C recorded at 6pm. The state's hotspot was Mildura, where a maximum of 45.5C was recorded. That beat the state's previous November record of 45C, which dated back to 1905 in Mildura. The biggest grass fire was near Baringhup, close to Maryborough, which spread over 200 hectares after starting about 3pm (AEDT) before being contained....read more...

 

                                 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2 - SOLAR

 

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

66

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

348-466

FLARES >

C

08

 

CH 546 TRANSEQU. DECAYING NOV- 24 NOV- 27

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

114

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 4.6

 

M

01

 

UNNUMB. NORTH DECAYING NOV-27  

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

03

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

75- 112 nT

 

X

 

 

           

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) NOV 13- 17  

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) NOV 17-26  

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

   

 

rotating out

15618

80° - 94° W

08° N

Ekc type

 

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

 

15620

42° - 56° W

12° S

Esi-type/ beta-gamma

 

 

 

 

 

FILAMENT ERUPTIONS >

 

 

 

15621

38° - 24° E

15° N

Hsx type/ alpha

 

                     
 

15622

03° E - 11° W

25° S

 

NOV- 28        

SOLAR/ INTERPLANETARY MEASUREMENTS & DATA PLOTS:

 
newly emerged

15623

78° - 64° E

08° N

 

DEC 03

 

 

 

  ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY

MODERATE

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
       

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20121031

20121112

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

       

 

       

 

 

20121006

20121014

 

       

 

 

 

 

 

 

LATEST CME IMPACT MAP (internal) GOES ELECTRON FLUX:

 

       

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

       

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

       

 

           
                     
   
red letters = currently most active region abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class. alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**

 

ELECTRON FLUX IS BACK TO NORMAL VALUES SINCE NOV- 26

 

 

*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson)

 

PROTON EVENTS:

Proton flux is at normal values since Oct 12

 

                         
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2012 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 27/2126Z from Region 1620 (S12W57). The region continued to grow in areal coverage and maintained a beta-gamma-delta configuration. Region 1623 (N09E60) also grew significantly in areal coverage but the magnetic complexity is difficult to determine with its proximity to the limb. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels on days one, two, and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov, 01 Dec).

 

 

                   

CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)- SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA

   

 

  LATEST CME IMPACT MAP (internal  

(date)

CME at:

21:26 UTC

ARRIVAL:

DEC- 01- 02

POLARITY: UNKNOWN BETA ALPHA (PROTONS)  

 

GOES/ X-RAY FLUX: (Solar nuclear activity)  

TRACKING NR.:

89/12

      20121128/ 21:45 UTC   20121128/ 19:45 UTC

 

ACTIVE REGIONS

11620

       

 

Earth directed?

partial  

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

42° - 56° W

12° S

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

Solar flares

   
TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS (1) STEREO-"Behind" (2) SoHO/ LASCO C 3 (3) SDO /AIA-comp

(4) SDO /AIA-comp.

  (5) SDO /AIA-comp.

 

Abbreviations >

LDE=

Long Duration Event

 

 

 

 

 

 

try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

internal remarks

PRELIMINARY REPORT

               

2012

alien-homepage.de

 

 

 
                       

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note,, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20121124 - 25

int. CME Nr. >>

84/85 a.b / 12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT: LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

135° - 150W/ 00- 35° W

MEDIUM

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

(THUNDER-) STORMS

SOUTH EAST PACIFIC

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

INDO/AUS >< PACIFIC

 

CME CLUSTER/ LATENCY

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

KAMCHATKA- JAPAN

SOUTH

N-AMERICA >< E-EURASIA

 

28- NOVEMBER - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

EUROPE WEST

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

EURASIA >< ATLANTIC

 

M 5.5.- M 7.0

LATENCY (POTENTIAL= 7.5)

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES


EASTERN ATLANTIC

AFRICA >< CARIBBEAN

 

29- NOVEMBER - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5 -> M 7.5 (POTENTIAL= 7.5)

CME IMPACT?

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

global

global

 

30- NOVEMBER - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

 

 

 

M 5.5 -> M 7.5 (POTENTIAL= 7.5)

LATENCY END prelim..)

 

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME

 

*REGIONS> see definition below  

 

 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES* CURRENT DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: INCREASING    

 

*BY TECTONICS COOLING DOWN = RELATED TECTONIC PLATES ARE EXPECTED  TO BE HEATED BY CME IMPACT

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/GEO.magnetometer

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES> PROTON INFLUENCE MULTIPLE CME IMPACT

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS > PARADOX EFFECTS /LATENCIES EQ- LATENCY-  (UNTIL DEC- 02?)

 

QUIET

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 448 km/s at 28/0119Z and has since decreased to nominal levels.

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

ALL TEXT REPORTS /LINK

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 

S. RADIATION STORM

   

 

 

MAJOR STORM  

ELECTRONS> 1000pfu

 

 

   

 

  / PROTON STORM NONE NONE  

internal remarks:

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE NONE

 

 

      RADIO BLACKOUTS R 1 R 1  
 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE NONE

 

 

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

     

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

NOVEMBER

 

DAY:

27

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

 

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.5 - SERAM, INDONESIA - 2012-11-27 02:59:10 UTC

MAP:

EMSC

 

 

 

UNDER SURVEY: AFTER- EARTHQUAKE & SWARMS

 

 

 

 

NAME OF REGION:

FREQUENCY/ OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

EVENTS WITH PARTICULAR QUAKESHIGHER THAN M 2 AND EXCEEDING M 3.0:

EMSC

 

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

JULY 2012

MAP

141

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.1 - DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE - 2012-11-27 07:29:56 UTC  

SERAM, INDONESIA

NOVEMBER- 27- 2012 MAP

03

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.6 - SERAM, INDONESIA - 2012-11-27 22:08:16 UTC  

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012 MAP MAP

10

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.4- SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA- 2012/11/27 00:58:32  

REGION CHILE / ARGENTINE ( SA/ NASCA PLATE)

FREQUENT/ OCT- 2012 MAP

20

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.0 - TARAPACA, CHILE - 2012-11-27 01:53:44 UTC  

PANAMERICA

FREQUENT SINCE 2012 MAP

03

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.8 - SOUTH OF PANAMA - 2012-11-27 13:37:11 UTC  

EASTERN TURKEY / Near city of VAN

PERMANENT MAP

 

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.1 - EASTERN TURKEY - 2012-11-27 15:41:43 UTC  

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

 

OTHER QUAKE SWARMS WITH MAGNITUDES > M 2.0 < M 3.0

EMSC

 

GULF OF MEXICO ( GOM)/ CARIBBEAN PLATER

VARYING MAP 01 ( M 3.1)      

CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION

NOVEMBER - 14-2012 MAP

00

     

WESTERN TURKEY

PERMANENT( higher since 2011) MAP

06

     

NORTHERN ITALY

SINCE MAR 2012 MAP

03

     
                     

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

note: allthough CME impacts are regularly coincident at least with TEMPORARY volcano acticity increases, my time does not allow to introduce such DETAILLED resp. "FINE TUNED" statistic reports

< stats

 

as required to communicate this. This section therefor can only refer to changes in "ALERT LEVELS" as published by GVP. Click on the buttons (right) to find more detailled internal reports: volcano watch (global statistics) and regional volcano maps (all volcanoes worldwide and current activities)

maps >

 
volcano-discovery/gadget

note: this report does NOTnecessarely represent all currently global active volcanoes!

      2012 report by: GVP  
REGION:
NAME/USGS datalink:
GEOGRAPHIC POSITION: LAT. / LONG.
VOLCANO NUMBER
VOLCANO TYPE
WEBCAM DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL MAP: LOCAL SURVEY

 

Kamchatka
55°7'48"N/ 160°19'0"E
1000-23=
Stratovolcano
Hi*
 

NOV- 27- 2012

 

Kamchatka

KVERT

 

Wikipedia:

                   
           

20121204

report by:

GVP

 

KVERT reported that during 23-30 November moderate seismic activity at Kizimen was detected. Video and satellite images showed lava flows effusing from the summit and the E flank, summit incandescence, strong gas-and-steam activity, and hot avalanches on the S flank. A thermal anomaly was detected in satellite images during 23-26 and 29 November; cloud cover obscured views on the other days. The Aviation Color Code remained at Orange.

 

                               
REGION:
NAME/USGS datalink:
GEOGRAPHIC POSITION: LAT. / LONG.
VOLCANO NUMBER
VOLCANO TYPE
WEBCAM DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL MAP: LOCAL SURVEY  
KAMCHATKA penins.
55°49'48"N/ 160°19'48"E
1000-24=
Shield volcano
Hi*
none

NOV- 27- 2012

 

Kamchatka

KVERT

 

Wikipedia:

                 

 

           

20121127

report by:

wired.com  

Russia’s Tolbachik Erupts for First Time in 36 Years

For the first time in 36 years, Tolbachik in Russia is erupting according to reports from Russia. KVERT, the volcano monitoring body for Kamchatka, released a bulletin describing a significant explosive eruption with the potential for ash explosions up to 10 km / 32,800 ft. With the many air routes across the northern Pacific, this eruption will need to be closely monitored for its impact on air travel over the eastern Siberian peninsula. The ash advisory from the Tokyo VAAC also mentions a report of ash at FL 330 (33,000 feet) that was spreading to the NNW. VolcanoDiscovery reported that seismicity had been creeping upwards around Tolbachik since at least early November as well. Trying to get information from some of the hastily-translated articles from Russia is, ahem, fun. One described the eruption as the “volcano’s top caldera is being filled with fresh and gushing lava” based on incandescence seen at the summit. The last eruption of Tolbachik started in 1975 and was quite impressive, rating at least a VEI 4 with both explosive and effusive activity....read more...

 

                          eruption from two new fissure vents/ Nov 2012

 

                     

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground. com Tropical Storm Bopha NOV- 25- 2012 WESTERN PACIFIC

40 MPH (+)

155.8° E 

4.4° N

APPR. 1800 KM EAST OF PHILIPPINES WNW TS    
(+) = storm speed was INCREASING (-) = storm speed was DECREASING = media report available (click on this symbol) CLICK HERE TO OPEN TODAY`s PRELIMINARY REPORT  
                 

 

 

 

 

GROUND UNDER FUKUSHIMA UNIT 4 SINKING           20120703

report by:

fukushimaupdate.com

 

REPORT ON POTENTIAL “SIGNIFICANT GLOBAL IMPACT” OF COLLAPSE OF REACTOR 4

A collapse of the already tilting reactor No 4 building at the stricken Fukushima Daiichi plant, ¬atop which sits a spent nuclear fuel storage pool containing 1,535 fuel assemblies – including 204 unused ones – would lead to a “significant global impact,”– by far topping last year’s triple meltdown at the plant, a new report says. According to the report (available here) released by Holpchi CH, a Swiss-based industrial analytics think-tank, even a 10 percent release of the storage pool’s inventory of radioactive cesium and strontium would “represent 3 to 10 times the March 11, 2011 release amounts, substantially increasing risk levels in Japan and marine life.”If cooling water for the pool is lost, said the report, “a major release of radioactive material could result,” adding that, “Given the large amounts of heat generated by the fuel rods, the temperature would rise quickly. These rods are surrounded by zirconium cladding and at high temperatures, this cladding catalyzes hydrogen production, can generate additional heat and even explode and burn.”...read more...

 

                                 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2 - SOLAR

 

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

74

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

389-608

FLARES >

C

14

 

CH 546 SOUTH GROWING NOV- 24 NOV- 27

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

117

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 4.8

 

M

02

 

         

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

03

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

75- 105 nT

 

X

 

 

           

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) NOV 13- 17  

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) NOV 17-26  

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

- 608 km/ s

 

 

 

15618

67° - 81° W

08° N

   

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

 

15620

29° - 43° W

12° S

   

 

 

 

 

FILAMENT ERUPTIONS >

 

 

 

15621

51° - 37° E

15° N

 

NOV- 30

                     
newly emerged

15622

18° - 04° E

25° S

  NOV- 28        

SOLAR/ INTERPLANETARY MEASUREMENTS & DATA PLOTS:

 
        S- POLAR REGION:   CH 546 and AR on 20121127   ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY

INCREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
         

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20121031

20121112

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

         

 

 

20121006

20121014

 

         

 

(6) filament eruption 20121127/ 04:54 UTC GOES ELECTRON FLUX:

 

         

 

 

         

 

 

        filament eruption      
            STARMAP by: solen.info/    
   
red letters = currently most active region abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class. alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**

 

ELECTRON FLUX IS BACK TO NORMAL VALUES SINCE NOV- 26

 

 

*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson)

 

PROTON EVENTS:

Proton flux is at normal values since Oct 12

 

                         
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2012 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3/1n event observed at 24/1340Z from Region 1618 (N08W41) accompanied by a Type II radio sweep (685 km/s). No coronagraph imagery was available for analysis at the time of this report. Region 1618 showed signs of decay during the period, but retained weak beta-gamma-delta characteristics. New Region 1621 (N15E76) was numbered today and is currently a simple Hsx type with alpha magnetic characteristics. The remaining 3 regions were stable. Other than the potential CME associated with the Type II sweep noted above, no earth-directed CMEs were detected. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on days one, two, and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov, 27 Nov) with a diminishing chance for an isolated M-flare from Region 1618 as it continues to decay.

 

 

                   

CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)- SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA

   

 

  LATEST CME IMPACT MAP (internal  

(date)

2 CMEs at:

04:26/ 16:11

ARRIVAL:

NOV- 29- 30

POLARITY: UNKNOWN BETA ALPHA (PROTONS)  

 

GOES/ X-RAY FLUX: (Solar nuclear activity)  

TRACKING NR.:

88 a,b/ 12

20121127/ 12:09 UTC 20121127/ 05:55 UTC 20121127/ 09:02 UTC 20121127/ 04:26 UTC   10121127/ 16:11 UTC

 

ACTIVE REGIONS

11621/18

 

 

Earth directed?

HALO  

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

51° - 37° E

15° N

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

Solar flares

C 4.5/ M 0.8  
TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS (1) STEREO-"Behind" (2) SoHO/ LASCO C 3 (3) SDO /AIA-comp

(4) SDO /AIA-comp.

  (5) SDO /AIA-comp.

 

Abbreviations >

LDE=

Long Duration Event

 

 

 

 

 

 

try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

internal remarks

PRELIMINARY REPORT

               

2012

alien-homepage.de

 

several CMEs were observed on November 27: the first emerged from a dark flare in AR11621 at 04: 24 UTC (4) and was halo on SoHO images(3) .. The second CME was observed during a M 1 event after 16 UTC in AR 11618 (5) at the Western limb, that may have just some Earth directed parts.. An impressive filament went off from the Southern Polar region ( image above)after 15:00 UTC but will not be geoeffective.

 

VARIOUS EXTERNAL SOURCES( CME)

ACE/ EPAM: ELECTRONS

ACE/SIS: PROTONS

RU/ MOSCOW: NEUTRONS

 

NASA/ISWA/animation of interplanetary CME evolution a.m.o.

 

NOAA ARCHIVES (all plots)

NASA/ NOAA- PROTON FLUX/ arch

GOES/ 3 days X-RAY FLUX

GOES/ ELECTRONS

GOEShp ( MAG)

 

NASA/ ACE: CME and SOLAR WIND/Analysis system

Magn complexity/ particle acceleration

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note,, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20121124 - 25

int. CME Nr. >>

84/85 a.b / 12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT: LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

135° - 150W/ 00- 35° W

MEDIUM

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

(THUNDER-) STORMS

SOUTH EAST PACIFIC

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

INDO/AUS >< PACIFIC

 

CME CLUSTER/ LATENCY

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

KAMCHATKA- JAPAN

SOUTH

N-AMERICA >< E-EURASIA

 

27- NOVEMBER - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

EUROPE WEST

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

all forecasts are without warranty!

EURASIA >< ATLANTIC

 

M 5.5.- M 7.0

LATENCY (POTENTIAL= 7.5)

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES


EASTERN ATLANTIC

AFRICA >< CARIBBEAN

 

28- NOVEMBER - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5 -> M 7.5

LATENCY END?

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

global

global

 

29- NOVEMBER - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

 

 

 

M 5.5 -> M 7.5

LATENCY END prelim..)

 

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME

 

*REGIONS> see definition below  

 

 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES* CURRENT DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: INCREASING    

 

*BY TECTONICS COOLING DOWN = RELATED TECTONIC PLATES ARE EXPECTED  TO BE HEATED BY CME IMPACT

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/GEO.magnetometer

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES> PROTON INFLUENCE MULTIPLE CME IMPACT

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS > PARADOX EFFECTS /LATENCIES EQ- LATENCY-

 

QUIET

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. The maximum solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft was 439 km/s at 24/1137Z. Total IMF reached 17.1 nT at 23/2216Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10.3 nT at 24/0621Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 789 pfu.

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

ALL TEXT REPORTS /LINK

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 

S. RADIATION STORM

   

 

 

MAJOR STORM  

ELECTRONS> 1000pfu

 

 

   

 

  / PROTON STORM NONE NONE  

internal remarks:

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE NONE

 

 

      RADIO BLACKOUTS R 1 NONE  
 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE NONE

 

 

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

     

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

NOVEMBER

 

DAY:

26

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

 

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.3 - SOUTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA - 2012-11-26 05:33:49 UTC

MAP:

EMSC

 

 

 

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

 

 

 

 

 

NAME OF REGION:

FREQUENCY/ OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

EVENTS WITH PARTICULAR QUAKESHIGHER THAN M 2 AND EXCEEDING M 3.0:

EMSC

 

PHILIPPINE ISLANDS

FREQUENT MAP

02

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 5.0 - PANAY, PHILIPPINES - 2012-11-26 17:53:01 UTC  

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

JULY 2012

MAP

93

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.7 - DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE - 2012-11-26 17:35:42 UTC  

NORTHERN ITALY

SINCE MAR 2012 MAP

02

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.2 - NORTHERN ITALY - 2012-11-26 19:18:56 UTC  

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012 MAP MAP

05

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.6- SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA- 2012/11/26 15:33:51   

REGION CHILE / ARGENTINE ( SA/ NASCA PLATE)

FREQUENT/ OCT- 2012 MAP

15

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.9 - MAULE, CHILE - 2012-11-26 01:39:46 UTC  

GULF OF MEXICO ( GOM)/ CARIBBEAN PLATER

VARYING MAP

01

  M 3.6- PUERTO RICO REGION- 2012/11/26 06:01:33  

PANAMERICA

FREQUENT SINCE 2012 MAP

01

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.4 - OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR - 2012-11-26 12:27:58 UTC  

EASTERN TURKEY / Near city of VAN

PERMANENT MAP

04

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.2 - EASTERN TURKEY - 2012-11-26 13:12:46 UTC  

WESTERN TURKEY

PERMANENT( higher since 2011) MAP

11

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.4 - WESTERN TURKEY - 2012-11-26 04:44:52 UTC  

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

 

OTHER QUAKE SWARMS WITH MAGNITUDES > M 2.0 < M 3.0

EMSC

 

CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION

NOVEMBER - 14-2012 MAP

00

     
     

 

     
                     
                     

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground. com Tropical Depression Twenty-six NOV- 25- 2012 WESTERN PACIFIC

35 MPH ()

156.6° E

4.2° N

APPR. 1000 KM NORTHEAST OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA NW      
wunderground. com Tropical Cyclone Boldwin NOV- 24- 2012 INDIAN OCEAN

40 MPH (-)

71.6° E 

15.2° S

APPR. 1100 KM EAST OF MADAGASKAR WSW L    
(+) = storm speed was INCREASING (-) = storm speed was DECREASING = media report available (click on this symbol) CLICK HERE TO OPEN TODAY`s PRELIMINARY REPORT  
                                 

ARCTIC ICE MELT

             

201121126

report by:

bbc.co.uk

 

Gas tanker Ob River attempts first winter Arctic crossing

A large tanker carrying liquified natural gas (LNG) is set to become the first ship of its type to sail across the Arctic. The carrier, Ob River, left Norway in November and has sailed north of Russia on its way to Japan. The specially equipped tanker is due to arrive in early December and will shave 20 days off the regular journey. The owners say that changing climate conditions and a volatile gas market make the Arctic transit profitable. "We have studied lots of observation data - there is an observable trend that the ice conditions are becoming more and more favourable for transiting this route. You are able to reach a highly profitable market by saving 40% of the distance, that's 40% less fuel used as well."But melting ice is not the only factor. A major element is the emergence of shale gas in the US. The Norwegian LNG plant at Hammerfest was developed with exports to the US in mind. But the rapid uptake of shale in America has curbed the demand for imported gas. Meanwhile in Japan, in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear disaster, there has been a growing interest in alternative power sources, especially gas....read more...

 

                                 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2 - SOLAR

 

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

81

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

466-583

FLARES >

C

12

 

NPCH EXT. NORTH DECAYING NOV- 17 NOV- 23- 24

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

121

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 5.8

 

M

 

 

SP CH EXT SOUTH CLOSED NOV- 17  

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

05

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

55- 112 nT

 

X

 

 

CH 546 SOUTH GROWING NOV- 24 NOV- 27  

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) NOV 13- 17  

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) NOV 17-26  

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

   

 

 

15618

54° - 68° W

08° N

   

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

 

15620

16° - 30° W

12° S

   

 

 

 

 

FILAMENT ERUPTIONS >

LATE ON NOV 26 near 15621 after midnilgh

 

 

15621

65° - 51° E

15° N

 

NOV- 30

                     
                   

SOLAR/ INTERPLANETARY MEASUREMENTS & DATA PLOTS:

 
                    ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY

INCREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
           

 

 

 

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20121031

20121112

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

                 

 

 

20121006

20121014

 

           

 

 

 

 

  GOES ELECTRON FLUX:

 

                 

 

 

 

                 

 

 

                     
       
   
red letters = currently most active region abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class. alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**

 

ELECTRON FLUX IS BACK TO NORMAL VALUES SINCE NOV- 26

 

 

*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson)

 

PROTON EVENTS:

Proton flux is at normal values since Oct 12

 

                         
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2012 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 26/1526Z from Region 1620 (S13W28). The region grew significantly overnight and is now considered an Esi-type region with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 1618 (N08W69) continued to decay, however, it maintained a weak delta in its trailing spot. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. A filament eruption was observed south of Region 1620 in SDO/AIA 304 imagery beginning at 26/0343Z. A model run is in progress to determine geoeffectiveness. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels on days one, two, and three (27 Nov, 28 Nov, 29 Nov).

 

 

                   

CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)- SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA

   

 

  LATEST CME IMPACT MAP (internal  

(date)

2 CMEs at:

NONE

ARRIVAL:

under analysis

POLARITY: UNKNOWN BETA ALPHA (PROTONS)  

 

GOES/ X-RAY FLUX: (Solar nuclear activity)  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note,, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20121124 - 25

int. CME Nr. >>

84/85 a.b / 12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT: LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

135° - 150W/ 00- 35° W

MEDIUM

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

(THUNDER-) STORMS

SOUTH EAST PACIFIC

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

INDO/AUS >< PACIFIC

 

CME CLUSTER/ LATENCY

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

KAMCHATKA- JAPAN

SOUTH

N-AMERICA >< E-EURASIA

 

26- NOVEMBER - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

EUROPE WEST

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

EURASIA >< ATLANTIC

 

M 5.5.- M 7.0

CME IMPACT(POTENTIAL= 7.5)

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES


EASTERN ATLANTIC

AFRICA >< CARIBBEAN

 

27- NOVEMBER - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5.- M 7.0

LATENCY (prelim..)

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

global

global

 

28- NOVEMBER - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

 

 

 

M 5.5 -> M 7.5

LATENCY (prelim..)

 

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME

 

*REGIONS> see definition below  

 

 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES* CURRENT DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: LOW ( LATENCY)    

 

*BY TECTONICS COOLING DOWN = RELATED TECTONIC PLATES ARE EXPECTED  TO BE HEATED BY CME IMPACT

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/GEO.magnetometer

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES> PROTON INFLUENCE MULTIPLE CME IMPACT

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS > PARADOX EFFECTS /LATENCIES EQ- LATENCY-

 

QUIET

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. A shock passage was observed at 26/0437Z indicating the possible early arrival of the 23 November CME followed by an 8 nT Sudden Impulse (SI) observed at the Boulder magnetometer at 26/0514Z. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 558 km/s at 26/0709Z. Total IMF reached 12.8 nT at 26/0749Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7.8 nT at 26/0729Z although it has remained positive since about 26/1000Z.

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

ALL TEXT REPORTS /LINK

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 

S. RADIATION STORM

   

 

 

MAJOR STORM  

ELECTRONS> 1000pfu

 

 

   

 

  / PROTON STORM NONE NONE  

internal remarks:

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE NONE

 

 

      RADIO BLACKOUTS NONE NONE    
 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE NONE

 

 

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

     

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

NOVEMBER

 

DAY:

25

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

 

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 4.9 - SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION - 2012-11-25 12:33:18 UTC

MAP:

EMSC

 

 

 

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

 

 

 

 

 

NAME OF REGION:

FREQUENCY/ OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

EVENTS WITH PARTICULAR QUAKESHIGHER THAN M 2 AND EXCEEDING M 3.0:

EMSC

 

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

JULY 2012

MAP

103

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.0 - DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE - 2012-11-25 08:51:47 UTC  

ISLAND OF HAWAII, HAWAII

NOVEMBER- 25- 2012 (seldom) MAP

01

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.8 - ISLAND OF HAWAII, HAWAII - 2012-11-25 23:56:20 UTC  

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012 MAP MAP

06

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.2 SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY, CANADA- 2012/11/25 07:47:51  

REGION CHILE / ARGENTINE ( SA/ NASCA PLATE)

FREQUENT/ OCT- 2012 MAP

14

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.6 - TARAPACA, CHILE - 2012-11-25 22:51:49 UTC  

GULF OF MEXICO ( GOM)/ CARIBBEAN PLATER

VARYING MAP

01

  N 3.2- MONA PASSAGE, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC- 2012/11/25 11:06:08  

PANAMERICA

FREQUENT SINCE 2012 MAP

01

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.4 - NORTHERN COLOMBIA - 2012-11-25 22:24:09 UTC  

EASTERN TURKEY / Near city of VAN

PERMANENT MAP

03

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.0 - EASTERN TURKEY - 2012-11-25 04:31:27 UTC  

WESTERN TURKEY

PERMANENT( higher since 2011) MAP

06

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.2 - WESTERN TURKEY - 2012-11-25 04:21:58 UTC  

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

 

OTHER QUAKE SWARMS WITH MAGNITUDES > M 2.0 < M 3.0

EMSC

 

CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION

NOVEMBER - 14-2012 MAP

00

     

NORTHERN ITALY

SINCE MAR 2012 MAP

02

     
                     
                     

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground. com Tropical Cyclone Boldwin NOV- 24- 2012 INDIAN OCEAN

65 MP/ H

73.4° E

14.6° S

1100 KM EAST OF MADAGASKAR WSW L  

 

(+) = storm speed was INCREASING (-) = storm speed was DECREASING = media report available (click on this symbol) CLICK HERE TO OPEN TODAY`s PRELIMINARY REPORT  
                                 

SEVERE RAIN/ FLOODINGS

           

20121126

report by:

bbc.co.uk

 

Flooding continues to threaten hundreds of homes

Residents in up to 500 properties in north Wales have been advised to leave their homes after the River Elwy broke its banks - and forecasters say the threat of floods remains in many areas. An emergency centre has been set up at a leisure centre in St Asaph. About 200 flood warnings are in force in England and Wales and there are two for the Scottish Borders region. Heavy rain has fallen in northern England and north Wales but the wet conditions are set to ease. However, there are fears saturated ground could lead to further flooding and travel disruption. Inspector Mark Davies from North Wales Police said the flooding in the area was also affecting the villages of Llanfairtalhaiarn, Llangernyw and Llansannan nearby. "The Environment Agency tell us water levels are rising and getting worse," he said....read more...

 

            20121125

report by:

marketoracle.co

 

UK Floods, Worst Flooding Since 2007, Extreme Weather Global Weirding?

The UK looks set to experience its worst series of floods since at least the great floods of 2007 when areas that had never flooded in living memory experienced what would turn out to be their worst floods in over 150 years. The latest of a series of heavy rain fall induced flooding is being experienced by the south and south west areas of England and Wales, with over 500 flood warnings in place nation wide, as one of the wettest summers on record had left the ground saturated, unable to soak up additional heavy rain fall that is resulting in the failure of drainage systems....read more...

 

                                 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2 - SOLAR

 

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

64

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

339-498

FLARES >

C

03

 

NPCH EXT. NORTH DECAYING NOV- 17 NOV- 23- 24

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

121

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 2.7

 

M

 

 

SP CH EXT SOUTH GROWING NOV- 17  

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

05

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

22- 115 nT

CME infl.

X

 

 

           

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) NOV 13- 17  

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) NOV 17-  

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

   

 

 

15618

40° - 56° W

08° N

Ekc type

NOV- 21/22

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

rotating out

15619

84° - 98° W

10° N

 

 

 

 

 

 

FILAMENT ERUPTIONS >

 

 

 

15620

01° E - 13° W

12° S

gamma

NOV 24                      
 

15620

78° - 64° E

15° N

 

         

SOLAR/ INTERPLANETARY MEASUREMENTS & DATA PLOTS:

 
       

 

          ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY

INCREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
       

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20121031

20121112

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

       

 

       

 

 

20121006

20121014

 

       

 

 

 

 

 

 

LATEST CME IMPACT MAP (internal) GOES ELECTRON FLUX:

 

       

 

       

 

 

       

 

       

 

 

       

 

           
       
   
red letters = currently most active region abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class. alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**

 

ELECTRON FLUX SEEMS TO DECREASE UNDER CME INFLUENCE

 

 

*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson)

 

PROTON EVENTS:

Proton flux is at normal values since Oct 12

 

                         
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2012 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 25/2014Z from the west limb. Region 1618 (N08W55) was responsible for a B9 flare at 24/0617Z. Region 1618 was classified as an Ekc type group covering 270 millions of the visible solar disk. Further magnetic simplification was observed in Region 1618s leader spot, however it contained a delta in its larger trailing spot earlier in the period. Region 1620 (S13W14) appeared to develop gamma characteristics over the past 24 hours. New flux emergence was noted in the southeast quadrant near S17E38 and S24E30. These regions were small, simple beta type groups and will be monitored for continued development before being numbered. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on days one, two, and three (26 Nov, 27 Nov, 28 Nov) with a chance for an M-class event.

 

 

                   

CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)- SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA

   

 

  LATEST CME IMPACT MAP (internal  

(date)

2 CMEs at:

NONE

ARRIVAL:

under analysis

POLARITY: UNKNOWN BETA ALPHA (PROTONS)  

 

GOES/ X-RAY FLUX: (Solar nuclear activity)  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note,, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20121124 - 25

int. CME Nr. >>

84/85 a.b / 12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT: LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

135° - 150W/ 00- 35° W

MEDIUM

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

(THUNDER-) STORMS

SOUTH EAST PACIFIC

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

INDO/AUS >< PACIFIC

 

MULTIPLE CME IMPACT

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

KAMCHATKA- JAPAN

SOUTH

N-AMERICA >< E-EURASIA

 

25- NOVEMBER - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

EUROPE WEST

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

EURASIA >< ATLANTIC

 

M 5.5 -> M 7.5 (POSSIBLE!)

CME IMPACT(POTENTIAL= 7.5)

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES


EASTERN ATLANTIC

AFRICA >< CARIBBEAN

 

26- NOVEMBER - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5.- M 7.0

CME IMPACT(POTENTIAL= 7.5)

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

global

global

 

27- NOVEMBER - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

 

 

 

M 5.5 -> M 7.5

LATENCY (prelim..)

 

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME

 

*REGIONS> see definition below  

 

 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES* CURRENT DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: LOW ( LATENCY)    

 

*BY TECTONICS COOLING DOWN = RELATED TECTONIC PLATES ARE EXPECTED  TO BE HEATED BY CME IMPACT

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/GEO.magnetometer

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES> PROTON INFLUENCE MULTIPLE CME IMPACT

 

 


IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. There were no obvious signs the 21 November CME passage in the time series data from the ACE spacecraft in the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed began rising slowly from 350 km/s around 25/0400 UTC and peaked at 487 km/s 11 hours later. The Phi angle was near 225 degrees until 25/1000 UTC when it became variable. It came to rest at 315 degrees (negative sector) about 90 minutes later. Coincident with the variable period, Bz became negative. In the hours prior, it had been between 0 and +10nT. The temperature also began rising about the same time as the wind speed, but peaked around 25/1100 UTC. The EPAM instrument reported low energy particle flux rose from around 25/0600 to 0900 UTC, but abruptly leveled off afterwards and only minor fluctuations have followed. Total IMF reached 12.3 nT at 25/0303Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8.1 nT at 25/1259Z

 

EFFECTING AS > PARADOX EFFECTS /LATENCIES EQ- LATENCY-

 

QUIET

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

ALL TEXT REPORTS /LINK

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 

S. RADIATION STORM

   

 

 

MAJOR STORM  

ELECTRONS> 1000pfu

 

 

   

 

  / PROTON STORM NONE NONE  

internal remarks:

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE NONE

 

 

    RADIO BLACKOUTS NONE NONE    

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

G 1 NONE

 

 

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

 

TODAY`S PRELIMINARY REPORT- END

 

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

NOVEMBER

 

DAY:

24

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

 

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 4.9 - OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA - 2012-11-24 11:52:29 UTC

MAP:

EMSC

 

 

 

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

 

 

 

 

 

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

EVENTS WITH PARTICULAR QUAKESHIGHER THAN M 2 AND EXCEEDING M 3.0:

EMSC

 

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

JULY 2012

MAP

41

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.5 - DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE - 2012-11-24 21:31:16 UTC  

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012 MAP MAP

07

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.3- CENTRAL CALIFORNIA- 2012/11/24 15:44:35   

REGION CHILE / ARGENTINE ( SA/ NASCA PLATE)

FREQUENT/ OCT- 2012 MAP

14

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.4 - ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE - 2012-11-24 12:50:21 UTC  

PANAMERICA

FREQUENT SINCE 2012 MAP

02

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.8 - OFFSHORE GUATEMALA - 2012-11-24 11:21:10 UTC  

EASTERN TURKEY / Near city of VAN

PERMANENT MAP

20

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.5 - EASTERN TURKEY - 2012-11-24 16:04:30 UTC  

WESTERN TURKEY

PERMANENT( higher since 2011) MAP

07

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.0 - WESTERN TURKEY - 2012-11-24 16:13:20 UTC  

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

 

OTHER QUAKE SWARMS WITH MAGNITUDES > M 2.0 < M 3.0

EMSC

 

CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION

NOVEMBER - 14-2012 MAP

01

     

NORTHERN ITALY

SINCE MAR 2012 MAP

00

     

EASTERN TURKEY / Near city of VAN

PERMANENT MAP

20

     
                     

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

OUTER SPACE

           

20120306

report by

neo.jpl.nasa

 

Near-Earth Asteroid 2012 DA14 to Miss Earth on February 15, 2013

Discovered by the LaSagra observatory in southern Spain, the small asteroid 2012 DA14 will pass within about 3.5 Earth radii of the Earth's surface on February 15, 2013. Although its size is not well determined, this near-Earth asteroid is thought to be about 45 meters in diameter. Asteroid 2012 DA14 will pass inside the geosynchronous satellite ring, located about 35,800 km above the equator. Its orbit about the sun can bring it no closer to the Earth's surface than 3.2 Earth radii on February 15, 2013. On this date, the asteroid will travel rapidly from the southern evening sky into the northern morning sky with its closest Earth approach occurring about 19:26 UTC when it will achieve a magnitude of less than seven, which is somewhat fainter than naked eye visibility. About 4 minutes after its Earth close approach, there is a good chance it will pass into the Earth's shadow for about 18 minutes or so before reappearing from the eclipse. When traveling rapidly into the northern morning sky, 2012 DA14 will quickly fade in brightness...read more...

 

STORM AND FLOODINGS

           

20121124

report by

.bbc.co.uk

 

Storms: Two killed as wind and rain batter Britain

Two people have died and more than 800 homes have been flooded after storms hit parts of England and Wales. A woman was killed by a falling tree in Exeter on Saturday night, while a 70-year-old man died after his car crashed into a swollen river in Cambridgeshire. Devon and Cornwall have been among the worst hit areas, with hundreds of homes flooded. One severe flood warning is in place in Helston, Cornwall.David Cameron has talked of "shocking scenes of flooding"The Environment Agency confirmed that 816 homes had been flooded as a result of the heavy rain.Apart from Devon and Cornwall, homes and properties have been flooded in Malmesbury in Wiltshire, Kempsey in Worcestershire, and areas of Gloucestershire. Houses have been evacuated in some areas.....read more...

 

                                 

KURIL ISLANDS / JAPAN TRENCH

           

20121124

report by

ajw.asahi.com

 

Researcher: Japan should prepare for worst-case magnitude-10 earthquake

Japan should be prepared for the possibility of a magnitude-10 earthquake, although the chances of a temblor that size are slim, a seismologist said. “The chances of a magnitude-10 occurring are very low,” professor Toru Matsuzawa of Tohoku University reported at a Nov. 21 meeting of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Japan. “But if we think of what could happen, with the maximum in mind, we can make a swift response.” The world’s largest recorded earthquake was the magnitude-9.5 Valdivia earthquake off the coast of Chile in 1960, rupturing a 1,000-kilometer fault. A magnitude-10 earthquake would be 30 times more powerful than the magnitude-9.0 Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011. Matsuzawa said a magnitude-10 quake is possible in theory if a large fault slips. If a temblor of such a scale should strike, the underground rupture would continue for 20 minutes to an hour, meaning tsunami could hit coasts before the shaking subsides. If a 3,000-kilometer stretch from the Japan Trench to the Kuril-Kamchatka Trench along the Pacific Ring of Fire has a slip of 60 meters, that would constitute a magnitude-10 earthquake, he said....read more...

read also: Quake shakes buildings in Tokyo

TOKYO — An earthquake shook eastern Japan on Saturday, swaying buildings in Tokyo. Public broadcaster NHK put the magnitude of the quake, which struck at 5:59 p.m. (0859 GMT), at 4.9.

 

                                 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2 - SOLAR

 

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

87

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

346-451

FLARES >

C

01

 

NPCH EXT. NORTH DECAYING NOV- 17 NOV- 23- 24

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

118

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 2.7

 

M

 

 

SP CH EXT SOUTH GROWING NOV- 17  

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

14

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

25- 140 nT

CME influcence

X

 

 

           

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) NOV 13- 17  

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) NOV 17-  

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

LOW CME influence

 

 

15618

27° - 41° W

08° N

NOV- 21/22

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

 

15619

70° - 84° W

10° N

   

 

 

 

 

FILAMENT ERUPTIONS >

 

 

 

15620

16° - 02° E

12° S

  NOV 24                      
                   

SOLAR/ INTERPLANETARY MEASUREMENTS & DATA PLOTS:

 
                    ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY

INCREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
           

 

 

 

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20121031

20121112

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

                 

 

 

20121006

20121014

 

           

 

 

 

 

LATEST CME IMPACT MAP (internal) GOES ELECTRON FLUX:

 

                 

 

 

                 

 

 

                     
       
   
red letters = currently most active region abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class. alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**

 

ELECTRON FLUX REMAINED AT HIGH LEVELS (between 1000 and 10.000 pfu)

 

 

*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson)

 

PROTON EVENTS:

Proton flux is at normal values since Oct 12

 

                         
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2012 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3/1n event observed at 24/1340Z from Region 1618 (N08W41) accompanied by a Type II radio sweep (685 km/s). No coronagraph imagery was available for analysis at the time of this report. Region 1618 showed signs of decay during the period, but retained weak beta-gamma-delta characteristics. New Region 1621 (N15E76) was numbered today and is currently a simple Hsx type with alpha magnetic characteristics. The remaining 3 regions were stable. Other than the potential CME associated with the Type II sweep noted above, no earth-directed CMEs were detected.

 

 

                   

CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)- SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA

   

 

  LATEST CME IMPACT MAP (internal  

(date)

2 CMEs at:

NONE

ARRIVAL:

under analysis

POLARITY: UNKNOWN BETA ALPHA (PROTONS)  

 

GOES/ X-RAY FLUX: (Solar nuclear activity)  
                       

TODAY`S CME ARRIVALS:

ARRIVAL DATE:

NOV- 24/25

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT:

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

 

STRENGTH:    

>TRACKING NR

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENT

ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN POLARITY: REL. MASS VALUE* MAIN IMPACT REGIONS  

86/ 12 a,b,

15618

13° E - 01° W

08° N

M1/M 3 flare in AR 11618 NOV- 21

06:59/ 15:45

NOV 25. 08:00 UTC 140 nT  

13- 24 UTC

UTC

electrons

220 W-EUROPE & EASTERN ATLANTIC 

85/12

15618

25° - 11° E

08° N

M 1 LDE flare in AR 11618 NOV- 21 12:00 UTC NOV 24/ 21:12 140 nT  

21- 24 UTC

UTC

electrons

240

SOUTHWEST PACIFIC  
REMARKS:      

long/lat:

long/lat:

 

*internal

SECONDARY IMPACT REGIONS  

 

       

 

  GLOBAL  
                             

LAST CME ARRIVALS:

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

DATE OF LAST CME ARRIVAL >

20121112

NUMBER  83/ 12

filament eruption

STRENGTH >

165 nT

CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs

01

ACTIVE>

02

geomagnetic turbulances/ G1- G2 storm

 

             

 

 

     

 

LATEST CME EVENTS:

           

 

LATENCY EFFECTS

     

 

ERUPTION DAY >

20121109/ 15:24 UTC 20121113/ after 00 UTC 20121120/ after 12:00 UTC 29121121/ 06:59/ 15:45 UT      

(this section refers to parameters known to influence terrestrial CME effects

 
CMEs BY TRACKING NRS.>

83/12

84/12

85/12

86/12 a,b

87/12

      FIRST IMPACT LAST IMPACT CMEs (total) LATENCY until

remarks:

 
ERUPTION TYPE:

C2 flare with filament eruption

several short impulsive M  class flares

synchronous flares in three AR/ major M 1 flare in AR 11619 at 12:00UTC

M 1/ M 3 impulsive flares

filament eruption

      NOV- 24   2-3  

CME 85 & 86/ a,b

 

           
 

NOV 13

NOV- 21

03 (ongoing)

  by proton event ( NOV 08- 12)
ESTIMATED ARRIVAL   NOV 15- 16 NOV- 22- 23 NOV22- 24 NOV 25- 26       LATEST PROTON EVENTS (SELDOM)    
ARRIVED ON: NOV- 12 after 14:00 UTC not geoeffective NOV 24 after 21:12 UTC (ACE) NOV- 25/after 13 UTC       CME Nr.: SOLAR EVENT DATE PROTON FLUX UNITS (pfu) PROTON EMISSION/ START PROTON EMISSION/ END ELECTRON INCREASE/ BEGIN ELECTRON INCREASE/LATENCY/ END  
HIGHEST VALUE IN GEOMAGNETIC FIELD 145 nT   140 nT 140 nT       NONE

NOV- 08

02 pfu

NOV- 08

NOV- 12

NOV- 14/ 16 UTC  

 

                 

SEP- 28/

13 pfu

SEP- 28

OCT- 02

OCT- 09

NOV- 03  
                               

VARIOUS EXTERNAL SOURCES( CME)

ACE/ EPAM: ELECTRONS

ACE/SIS: PROTONS

RU/ MOSCOW: NEUTRONS

 

NASA/ISWA/animation of interplanetary CME evolution a.m.o.

 

NOAA ARCHIVES (all plots)

NASA/ NOAA- PROTON FLUX/ arch

GOES/ 3 days X-RAY FLUX

GOES/ ELECTRONS

GOEShp ( MAG)

 

NASA/ ACE: CME and SOLAR WIND/Analysis system

Magn complexity/ particle acceleration

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note,, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20121124 - 25

int. CME Nr. >>

84/85 a.b / 12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT: LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

135° - 150W/ 00- 35° W

MEDIUM

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

(THUNDER-) STORMS

SOUTH EAST PACIFIC

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

INDO/AUS >< PACIFIC

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

KAMCHATKA- JAPAN

SOUTH

N-AMERICA >< E-EURASIA

 

24- NOVEMBER - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

EUROPE WEST

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

EURASIA >< ATLANTIC

 

M 5.5 - M 6.5

CME IMPACT(POTENTIAL= 7.5)

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES


EASTERN ATLANTIC

AFRICA >< CARIBBEAN

 

25- NOVEMBER - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5.- M 7.0

CME IMPACT(POTENTIAL= 7.5)

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

global

global

 

26- NOVEMBER - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

 

 

 

M 5.5 - M 7.5

LATENCY (prelim..)

 

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME

 

*REGIONS> see definition below  

 

 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES* CURRENT DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: LOW ( LATENCY)    

 

*BY TECTONICS COOLING DOWN = RELATED TECTONIC PLATES ARE EXPECTED  TO BE HEATED BY CME IMPACT

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/GEO.magnetometer

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES> PROTON INFLUENCE MULTIPLE CME IMPACTS

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS > PARADOX EFFECTS /LATENCIES EQ- LATENCY-

 

QUIET

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. The maximum solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft was 439 km/s at 24/1137Z. Total IMF reached 17.1 nT at 23/2216Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10.3 nT at 24/0621Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 789 pfu.

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REPORTS /LINKS

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 

S. RADIATION STORM

   

 

 

MAJOR STORM  

ELECTRONS> 1000pfu

 

 

   

 

  / PROTON STORM NONE NONE  

internal remarks:

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE NONE

 

 

      RADIO BLACKOUTS NONE NONE    
 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

G 1 (predicted) NONE

 

NOV- 24- 2012: the first of 2 CMEs observed on Nov 20 and 21 arrived on Nov 23 after 21.12 UTC. The event is ongoing. Final analysis is possible when main impact will be completed.

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT

 

EXPLANATIONS>

Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.

Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./

Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME or CME cluster/

 

HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST>

INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions!

STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS

The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER a LATENCY period due to CME IMPACT on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES within the RED until the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Read "latency remarks"

 

REGIONS

REGION "A"

REGION "B"

REGION "C"

REGION" D"

REGION "E"

REGION "F"

 

 

REGIONS COVERED BY LATEST CME IMPACT>

EASTERN EURASIA- CHINA- INDONESIA- PHILIPPINES--AUSTRALIA WEST ALEUT./ KAMCHATKA- JAPAN/EAST- AUSTRALIA/ (EAST), PNG. NZL WESTERN USA+ WEST COAST- EASTERN PACIFIC- CANADA-ALASKA

EASTERN ATLANTIC/ PANAMERICA/ CENTRAL USA/ CENTRAL AND WEST PARTS OF SOUTH AMERICA

CENTRAL (WEST) EUROPE/ AFRICA, EAST ATLANTIC. CANARIES - CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA/ EAST

INDIA & INDIAN OCEAN- AFRICA (EAST), ARABIA ASIA MINOR

RELATED CME EVENT: 20121120/21

 

RELATED TECTONIC BOUNDARIES>

PACIFIC< EURASIA>< INDO-AUSTRALIA

NORTH AMERICA (W) >< EURASIA (E) ><PACIFIC (E)

NORTH AMERICA/ incl. Microplates ><PACIFIC

AFRICA >< CARRIBEAN >< SOUTH AMERIA >< NASCA>< COCOS

EURASIA <> N-AMERICA/WESTCARRIBEAN ><AFRICA

EURASIA><ARABIA ><INDO-AUSTRALIA

CME ARRIVAL:

 

UTC TIME ZONES >

..

.......

...

...

......

..

20121124 (ongoing!)

 

LONGITUDES>

120° E- 90° E

135° E- 180° - 135° W

90° W- 135° W

45° W- 90° W

45° W - 00° W- 45° E

45° E- 90° E

Nr.: 84 &85 a,b /12

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

NOVEMBER

 

DAY:

23

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

 

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.0 - NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN - 2012-11-24 01:30:01 UTC

MAP:

EMSC

 

 

 

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

 

 

 

 

 

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

EVENTS WITH PARTICULAR QUAKESHIGHER THAN M 2 AND EXCEEDING M 3.0:

EMSC

 

GULF OF MEXICO/ CARRIBBEAN PLATE

FREQUENT

MAP

31

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.6- DOMINICA REGION, LEEWARD ISLANDS- 2012/11/23 19:54:13   

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012 MAP MAP

06

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.0- CENTRAL CALIFORNIA- 2012/11/24 15:44:35   

REGION CHILE / ARGENTINE ( SA/ NASCA PLATE)

FREQUENT/ OCT- 2012 MAP

14

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.8 - ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE - 2012-11-24 01:19:29 UTC  

PANAMERICA

FREQUENT SINCE 2012 MAP

02

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.8 - OFFSHORE GUATEMALA - 2012-11-24 11:21:10 UTC  

EASTERN TURKEY / Near city of VAN

PERMANENT MAP

19

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.5 - EASTERN TURKEY - 2012-11-24 16:04:30 UTC  

WESTERN TURKEY

PERMANENT( higher since 2011) MAP

08

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.0 - WESTERN TURKEY - 2012-11-24 16:13:20 UTC  

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

 

OTHER QUAKE SWARMS WITH MAGNITUDES > M 2.0 < M 3.0

EMSC

 

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012 MAP MAP

02

     

CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION

NOVEMBER - 14-2012 MAP

01

 

NORTHERN ITALY

SINCE MAR 2012 MAP

00

     

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

note: allthough CME impacts are regularly coincident at least with TEMPORARY volcano acticity increases, my time does not allow to introduce such DETAILLED resp. "FINE TUNED" statistic reports

< stats

 

as required to communicate this. This section therefor can only refer to changes in "ALERT LEVELS" as published by GVP. Click on the buttons (right) to find more detailled internal reports: volcano watch (global statistics) and regional volcano maps (all volcanoes worldwide and current activities)

maps >

 
volcano-discovery/gadget

note: this report does NOT necessarely represent all currently global active volcanoes!

      2012 report by: GVP  
             

20121204

report by:

GVP  
REGION:
NAME/USGS datalink:
GEOGRAPHIC POSITION: LAT. / LONG.
VOLCANO NUMBER
VOLCANO TYPE
WEBCAM DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL MAP: LOCAL SURVEY

 

Kamchatka
56°3'24"N/ 160°38'18"E
1000-26=
Stratovolcano
Hi*

NOV- 23- 2012

 

Kamchatka

KVERT

 

Wikipedia:

                   
           

20121204

report by:

GVP

 

KVERT reported that during 23-30 November video footage and satellite imagery showed Strombolian explosions at Kliuchevskoi, along with crater incandescence and gas-and-steam emissions. A weak thermal anomaly was detected in satellite images during 23-26 November; cloud cover obscured views on the other days. The Aviation Color Code remained at Orange.

 

                               
REGION:
NAME/USGS datalink:
GEOGRAPHIC POSITION: LAT. / LONG.
VOLCANO NUMBER
VOLCANO TYPE
WEBCAM DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL MAP: LOCAL SURVEY

 

ECUADOR REVENTADOR- pos 0°4'39"S/ 77°39'21"W 0502- 01= Stratovolcano Hi* REVENTADOR
 

NOV- 23- 2012

 

SOUTHAM igepn.edu.ec

 

Wikipedia:

                   
           

20121127

report by:

GVP

 

IG reported that scientists aboard an overflight of Reventador on 23 November observed steam-and-gas emissions with slight amounts of ash rising 500 m above the lava dome and drifting WSW. The lava dome had intense fumarolic activity and there was a new crater at the summit of the dome, which was filled with ash and large blocks. A thermal camera measured temperatures in the dome of about 300 degrees Celsius. Lava flows continued to be active on the dome flanks, and elongated block-and-ash deposits were also visible on the flanks. According to the Washington VAAC, the IG reported that on 24 November an ash plume from Reventador rose to an altitude of 4.6 km (15,000 ft) a.s.l. Ash was not detected in satellite imagery due to cloud cover, but a thermal anomaly was detected

 

                               
                     

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2 - SOLAR

 

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

85

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

282-402

FLARES >

C

04

 

NPCH EXT. NORTH DECAYING NOV- 17 NOV- 23- 24

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

126

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 3.1

 

M

 

 

SP CH EXT SOUTH GROWING NOV- 17  

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

06

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

70- 140 nT

CME infl.

X

 

 

           

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) NOV 13- 17  

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) NOV 17-  

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

DECR.  

 

rotating out

15613

85° - 99° W

23° S

beta-gamma  

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

 

15614

47° - 61° W

14° N

faded

 

 

 

 

 

FILAMENT ERUPTIONS >

SOUTHEASTERN LIMB after 12:00 UTC

 

faded

15615

33° - 47° W

09° N

faded

                       
 

15616

42° - 56° W

18° N

           

SOLAR/ INTERPLANETARY MEASUREMENTS & DATA PLOTS:

 
 

15617

17° - 31° W

18° S

faded

          ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY LOW

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
 

15618

14° - 28° W

08° N

NOV- 21/22

 

 

 

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20121031

20121112

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

 

15619

56° - 70° W

10° N

         

 

 

20121006

20121014

 

 

15620

29° - 15° E

12° S

  NOV 24

 

 

 

 

filament eruption on Nov. 23/ 12- 14 UTC

GOES ELECTRON FLUX:

 

                 

 

 

                 

 

 

                     
   

 

 
   
red letters = currently most active region abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class. alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**

 

ELECTRON FLUX REMAINED AT HIGH LEVELS (between 1000 and 10.000 pfu)

 

 

*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson)

 

PROTON EVENTS:

Proton flux is at normal values since Oct 12

 

                         
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2012 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 23/1212Z from Region 1618 (N08W27). Although this region retained its beta-gamma-delta magnetic characteristics, it experienced intermediate penumbral decay. All other regions on the disk remained stable and quiet. Between 1200 and 1300Z, a 29 degree filament was observed in SDO AIA 304 imagery lifting off from the southeast limb. The subsequent CME was observed in STEREO-A and B COR2 imagery beginning around 1400Z. Using geometric localization, a preliminary speed of approximately 550 km/s was obtained. This suggests an arrival at earth early on 27 November. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance for moderate activity, for the entire forecast period (24-26 Nov)

 

 

                   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note,, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20121112- 13

int. CME Nr. >>

83/ 12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT: LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

60°- 120° W

MEDIUM

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

(THUNDER-) STORMS

SOUTH AMERICA- WEST

< VOLCANISM/ QUAKES >

S AMERICA >< PACIFIC

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

CALIFORNIA

< GEOGRAPHIC >

S AMERICA >< COCOS

 

23- NOVEMBER - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS


CENTR. AMERICA

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

CENTR AMERICA >< CARIBBEAN

 

- M 6.5 (POTENTIAL= 7.5)

LATENCY CME IMPACT?

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

CENTRAL PACIFIC

PACIFIC >< INDO/AUS

 

24- NOVEMBER - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

- M 6.5 (POTENTIAL= 7.5)

LATENCY (prelim..)

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

120 ° 150° W

 

 

25- NOVEMBER - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

CENTRAL ATLANTIC

EUROPE>< N- AMERICA

 

- M 6.5 (POTENTIAL= 7.5)

LATENCY (prelim..)

 

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME

JAPAN- PHILIPP.

*REGIONS> see definition below

N- AMERICA< PACIFIC

 

 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES*

DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY:

LOW ( LATENCY)    

 

*BY TECTONICS COOLING DOWN = RELATED TECTONIC PLATES ARE EXPECTED  TO BE HEATED BY CME IMPACT

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/GEO.magnetometer

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES> PROTON INFLUENCE EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS > PARADOX EFFECTS /LATENCIES EQ- LATENCY-

 

QUIET

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft reached 389km/s at 23/2117Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 23/2116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz was -8.8 nT at 23/2112Z. These values coincided with the arrival of an interplanetary shock at ACE around 23/2112Z from the 20 Nov CME. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached a maximum of 1408 pfu.

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REPORTS /LINKS

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 

S. RADIATION STORM

   

 

 

MAJOR STORM  

ELECTRONS> 1000pfu

 

 

   

 

  / PROTON STORM NONE NONE  

internal remarks:

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE NONE

 

 

      RADIO BLACKOUTS NONE NONE  
 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

  G 2 (predicted)

 

NOV- 24- 2012: the first of 2 CMEs observed on Nov 20 and 21 arrived on Nov 23 after 21.12 UTC. This event is ongoing. The second CME ( 86/12) observed on Nov 21 is expected to arrive soon after. Further analysis will be provided on NOV 24 blog!

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT

 

EXPLANATIONS>

Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.

Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./

Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME or CME cluster/

 

HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST>

INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions!

STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS

The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER a LATENCY period due to CME IMPACT on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES within the RED until the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Read "latency remarks"

 

REGIONS

REGION "A"

REGION "B"

REGION "C"

REGION" D"

REGION "E"

REGION "F"

 

 

REGIONS COVERED BY LATEST CME IMPACT>

EASTERN EURASIA- CHINA- INDONESIA- PHILIPPINES--AUSTRALIA WEST ALEUT./ KAMCHATKA- JAPAN/EAST- AUSTRALIA/ (EAST), PNG. NZL WESTERN USA+ WEST COAST- EASTERN PACIFIC- CANADA-ALASKA

EASTERN ATLANTIC/ PANAMERICA/ CENTRAL USA/ CENTRAL AND WEST PARTS OF SOUTH AMERICA

CENTRAL (WEST) EUROPE/ AFRICA, EAST ATLANTIC. CANARIES - CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA/ EAST

INDIA & INDIAN OCEAN- AFRICA (EAST), ARABIA ASIA MINOR

RELATED CME EVENT: 20121007

 

RELATED TECTONIC BOUNDARIES>

PACIFIC< EURASIA>< INDO-AUSTRALIA

NORTH AMERICA (W) >< EURASIA (E) ><PACIFIC (E)

NORTH AMERICA/ incl. Microplates ><PACIFIC

AFRICA >< CARRIBEAN >< SOUTH AMERIA >< NASCA>< COCOS

EURASIA <> N-AMERICA/WESTCARRIBEAN ><AFRICA

EURASIA><ARABIA ><INDO-AUSTRALIA

CME ARRIVAL:

 

UTC TIME ZONES >

..

.......

...

...

......

..

20121112- 13: CLUSTER of 2- 4CMEs)

 

LONGITUDES>

120° E- 90° E

135° E- 180° - 135° W

90° W- 135° W

45° W- 90° W

45° W - 00° W- 45° E

45° E- 90° E

Nr.: 83/12

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

NOVEMBER

 

DAY:

22

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

 

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.8 - SALTA, ARGENTINA - 2012-11-22 13:07:10 UTC

MAP:

EMSC

 

 

 

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

 

 

 

 

 

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

EVENTS WITH PARTICULAR QUAKESHIGHER THAN M 2 AND EXCEEDING M 3.0:

EMSC

 

SICILY, ITALY

NOVEMBER- 22- 2012 MAP

19

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.1 - SICILY, ITALY - 2012-11-22 09:10:41 UTC  

GERMANY ( near Koblenz= Eiffel volcanic field)

NOVEMBER- 22- 2012 (seldom) MAP

02

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.1 - GERMANY - 2012-11-22 15:43:15 UTC  

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012 MAP MAP

04

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.7- BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO- 2012/11/22 17:26:32   

REGION CHILE / ARGENTINE ( SA/ NASCA PLATE)

FREQUENT/ OCT- 2012 MAP

14

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.4 - OFFSHORE O'HIGGINS, CHILE - 2012-11-22 07:30:57 UTC  

PANAMERICA

FREQUENT SINCE 2012 MAP

07

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.6 - DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE - 2012-11-22 09:35:40 UTC  

ALASKA/ ALEUTIANS/ KAMCHATKA

SOMETIMES MAP

04

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 5.2 - KOMANDORSKIYE OSTROVA REGION - 2012-11-22 05:21:46 UTC  

WESTERN TURKEY

PERMANENT( higher since 2011) MAP

13

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.1 - WESTERN TURKEY - 2012-11-22 18:14:00 UTC  

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

 

OTHER QUAKE SWARMS WITH MAGNITUDES > M 2.0 < M 3.0

EMSC

 

CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION

NOVEMBER