-----------------------

 

note: with elder machines the page will need some time to load!

alien- homepage.de- Earth quake statistics- -SUN SPOT ACTIVITY- 11- years solar cycle- last update: OCT- 08- 2012- -07:00 UTC copyright: reserved

background image: Aurora Borealis /COMMONS / wikipedia
open source earthquake forecast project created and provided by: alien-homepage.de-

 

 

2012/ 13 - MAXIMUM OF 11- YEAR SOLAR CYCLE

SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG

ARCHIVE
OCTOBER - 2012

 

NASA STEREO BEACON

alien-homepage.de / internal links:

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ws

PAGES RELATED TO THIS SOLAR/TERRESTRIAL PROJECT>
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SOHO REALTIME current view on the Sun
SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG/ ARCHIVES:
2012 >

OCT

 
2011 >
2010 >
NOTE: I WILL APPLY A NEW ARCHIVE SYSTEM IN 2012. CLICK ON THE BUTTON (right) FOR THE NEW ARCHIVE DIRECTORY! >

Note: Due to the high data amount in these monthly archives, I am currently trying to improve this by putting the single archives into collapsible panels.

Also I will split the monthly archive into 4 weekly ones. click on the following tabs to open the collapsible panels. You can report to my blog, if you should still experience problems when loading this page.

click here to open panel with graphics for volcano maps map , Earthquake statistic OCTOBER 2012
   

True and REAL TIME graphic solution, that makes obvious the coincidences of CME impacts and extraordinary natural phenomenons such as heavier Earthquakes, volcano eruptions, hurricanes. sudden ice meltdowns (floddings) and others

( click on the graphic top to enlarge it):

INTERNAL MAPS: click on the images or links below to get to my large regional maps, where you find all volcanoes around the world with descriptions , webcams and much more such as ancients sites! . Weekly regular activity updates, special earthquakes events with many functions

world volcano map 1.0

world volcano map version 2.0

Europe and Western Asia Africa and Arabic peninsula Central America and Mexico South America- Northern part South America- Southern part Central America and Mexico Northern America Kamchatka peninsula Japan region Indonesia and Philippines Australia and Southern Pacific

- incident graphic will be completed at the end of the month-

SPACECRAFTS:
SoHO
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
SDO /AIA
Solar Dynamics Observatory
STEREO
Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory
GOES
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites

ACE

 
Advanced Composition Explorer

^^ internal Earthquake statistics- with Sun activity curves : green = SUNSPOT NUMBER, Pink= SOLAR FLUX, blue= PLANETARY A INDEX

click here to see some of the paradox observations made during that solar cycle first possibly by observatory sopacecrafts: : CORONAL HOLES THOSE REAPPEAR DURING SEVERAL SOLAR ROTATION PERIODS ON THE SAME HELIOGRAPHIC POSITION

 

 

VIDEOS/ REPORTS OF THE WEEK- OCTOBER 2012:

VIDEOS/ REPORTS OF THE WEEK- OCTOBER-2012:

 

posted: 20121010: Study: GMO toxins found in nearly all pregnant women, unborn babies

 
 

SOLAR HEADLINES:

OCT- 23- 2012: OCT- 23- 2012: a strong X 2 event occured this morning from AR 11598 after 3:00 UTC without a CME emitting form the event NASA issued an R 3 xray Radio blackout warning Further stronger flares and CMEs are possible for the next days°
October 20/21- 2012

 

On October 20/21 a new extremely active and eruptive region ( AR 11598) rotated in from the Eastern limb and produced two M flares ( M 9) and several C flares associated with type II radio emisssions (sweeps) indicating Coronal mass ejections since it became visible. Allthough these CMEs from AR 11598 have yet no real Earth directed parts, their X ray emissions were so strong that they triggered an R 2 solar radiation alert on Oct 20- 21. AR 11598 is situated near the Sun equator ( at 12° S) will rotate into a central Earth facing position on Oct 27. AR 11598 is currently still growing and capable for M or even X class events. There is no indicator yet,that AR 11598 is producing most dangerous PROTON events ( read more in blog of Oct 20- 23)

 

TERRESTRIAL HEADLINES

OCT- 31- 2012: an CME- stronger than anticipated - impacted today at around 15:00 UTC . The impact began above the Western and central Atlantic and was ongoing at time of this update . With the first impact shock, the geomagnetic field density reached a maximum of 162 Nano Tesla (nT) = strong ( 2-3)
OCT- 28- 2012  

PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARING CENTER (LATEST) : OCT- 28/ 03:58 HST/ THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS ENDED FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII EFFECTIVE AT 0358 AM HST

OCT- 28- 2012. AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS: ORIGIN TIME - 0304Z 28 OCT 2012 LOCATION - QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION/ MAGNITUDE - 7.1. TSUNAMI WARNIG FOR US COAST: A WIDESPREAD DESTRUCTIVE TSUNAMI THREAT DOES NOT EXIST BASED ON HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA. THE WEST COAST AND ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE INFORMATION REGARDING ANY LOCAL TSUNAMI THREAT TO COASTS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER.

TSUNAMI WARNING IN EFFECT FOR HAWAII ISLANDS ! A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN GENERATED THAT COULD CAUSE DAMAGE ALONG COASTLINES OF ALL ISLANDS IN THE STATE OF HAWAII. URGENT ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT LIVES AND PROPERTY.

OCT- 21- 2012:  

The continuing earthquakes swarm along the San Andreas fault resumed on October- 21 in the Los Angeles region. Since Aug- 31- 2012 , seismic activities significantly have increased from the Gulf of California through the San Andreas fault between the NA and Pacific plate- envolving the Cocosplate in the South ) up to the cascadian subduction zone on the bundaries to the Juan de Fuca plate . The entire average magnitudes of tremors and swarm quakes in the region exceeded in 2012 5.0- and were therefore 1- 2 magnitudes higher than 2010/ 2011 (1 magnitude = x factor 10- /2 magnitude difference equals a factor x100 a.s.o.) .

A similiar increase of average Earthquake activity was observed throughout the year 2012 along the plate boundaries of the northern Eurasian and North- American plate SPREADING ZONE in the northern Atlantic and arctic sea, I would interprate as an accelerated cntinental drift. On Oct- 21, seismic activity first time exceeded magnitude M 5.0 also on the Northern shelf of Iceland itself. Its unclear whether this activity ALSO is related to volcano activities The new swarm on October 21 took place offshore in the Tjörnes Fracture Zone mainly between the Northern Coast of Iceland and the small island of Grimsey and reached a highest magnitude of M 5.2 ( the highest value measured in at least 10 years.) . volcanodiscovery writes,a submarine volcano is known from a location north of Grimsey that erupted in 1372.

   
 

 

click here to open and close collapsible panel with the archived "SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG" OCTOBER 22- 31- 2012
/ eruptive proinence

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

OCTOBER

 

DAY:

31

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

 

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 4.8 - KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA - 2012-10-31 06:53:55 UTC

MAP:

EMSC

 

 

 

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

 

 

 

 

 

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

EVENTS WITH PARTICULAR QUAKESHIGHER THAN M 2 AND EXCEEDING M 3.0:

EMSC

 

REGION CHILE / ARGENTINE ( SA/ NASCA PLATE)

FREQUENT/ OCT- 2012 MAP

11

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.0 - ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE - 2012-10-31 20:43:17 UTC  

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012 MAP MAP

04

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.2 - OFF COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA - 2012-10-31 13:00:14 UTC  

PANAMERICA

FREQUENT SINCE 2012 MAP

 

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE:    

GULF OF MEXICO REGION/ CARRIBBEAN PLATE (USGS)

OCTOBER 2012 MAP

02

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.2. 2012/10/31 19:10:06- PUERTO RICO REGION  

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

JULY 2012

MAP

05

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.1 - DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE - 2012-10-31 13:29:01 UTC  

WESTERN TURKEY

PERMANENT( higher since 2011) MAP

06

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.5 - WESTERN TURKEY - 2012-10-31 09:55:50 UTC  

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

 

OTHER QUAKE SWARMS WITH MAGNITUDES > M 2.0 < M 3.0

EMSC

 

CANARY ISLANDS REGION / MAINLY NEAR EL HIERRO

SINCE JUNE- 2011 CANARIES/ EL HIERRO

00

   

 

VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION

SEPTEMBER 16- 2012 MAP

00

 

QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION (!!)

OCTOBER - 28-2012 MAP

00

 

CENTRAL TURKEY

OCTOBER- 31 2012

MAP

14

 

EASTERN TURKEY / Near city of VAN

PERMANENT MAP

01

     
                     

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

note: allthough CME impacts are regularly coincident at least with TEMPORARY volcano acticity increases, my time does not allow to introduce such

< stats

 

DETAILLED resp. "FINE TUNED"statistic reports as required to communicate this!. This section therefor can only refer to changes in "ALERT LEVELS" as published by GVP. Click on the buttons (right) to findat least more detailled internal reports >

maps >

 
volcano-discovery/gadget

note: this report does NOTnecessarely represent all currently global active volcanoes!

      2012 report by: GVP  

 

Smithsonian / USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report

24 October-30 October 2012

New Activity/Unrest: | Heard, Southern Indian Ocean | Poás, Costa Rica 
Ongoing Activity: | Galeras, Colombia | Iliamna, Southwestern Alaska | Karymsky, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) | Kilauea, Hawaii (USA) | Popocatépetl, México | Sakura-jima, Kyushu | Santa María, Guatemala |Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia)

This page is updated on Wednesdays. Please see the GVP Home Page for news of the latest significant activity.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

no tropical storm reported so far

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground.com Tropical Storm Rosa OCT- 27- 2012 EASTERN PACIFIC

45 MPH (+)

117.1° W

14.5° N

APPR. 800 KM SWW OF MANZANILLO/ MEXICO W TS    
wunderground.com Invest 99E OCT- 29- 2012 INDIAN OCEAN

65 MPH (+)

81.1°E

12.0° N

APRR. 80 KM SW OF PUDUCHERY/ INDIA WNW L    

 

                   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AR and CH on 20121030/ STARMAP by solen.info SDO REAL TIME

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2 - SOLAR

 

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

35

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

272-380

FLARES >

C

02

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

104

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 2.4

 

M

 

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

05

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

80- 165 nT

CME

X

 

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

OVERALL SOLAR ACTIVITY TODAY

LOW

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

 

  < LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

 

20121006

20121014

 

rotating out

         

 

 

 

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

 

11598

50° - 64° W

12° S

beta-gamma-delta  

 

 

 

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

 

11599

22 ° - 36° W

11° S

simple alpha magnetic class

 

       

N-P-CH-EXT

NORTH

SHIFTING

OCT- 20

OCT 29- 30

 

 
 

15602

52° - 38° E

20° S

  NOV- 03        

CH 544

APPR 30° S

GROWING

OCT- 27

NOV- 01

RECURRENT

 
NEWLY EMERGED                  

CH 543

APPR 30° N GROWING

OCT- 29

OCT 30-31

   
NEWLY EMERGED          

 

 

 

 

LAST- NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (N-P - CH- EXT)

OCT-19 - ?

previous: SEP- 19

 

                 

 

LAST- SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT)

OCT- 19-

previous: SEP- 19

 

           

 

 

 

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

NONE

 

 

                 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

                 

 

FILAMENTS ERUPTIONS >

 

 

NEWLY EMERGED                  

remarks >

   
REMARKS>          
      abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class. alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**

 

 

 

 

red letters = currently most active region

*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson)

 

SOLAR/ INTERPLANETARY:

Electron 2MeV Integral Flux was > 1000 pfu since OCT 09

 

                    LATEST CME IMPACT MAP (internal) GOES ELECTRON FLUX:  

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA

         

 

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

2012

NOAA/ RSGA

 

 

SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Regions 1596 (N06, L=152) and 1598 (S11W65) both produced C1 flares at 31/0507Z and 31/1139Z respectively. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed during the reporting period. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-flare activity.

 

 

 

 

CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)

       

 

 

(date)

CMEs at:

NONE

ARRIVAL:

(estimated): Oct- 25- 26

POLARITY: UNKNOWN BETA ALPHA (PROTONS)    

TRACKING NR.:

             

GOES/ X-RAY FLUX: (Solar nuclear activity)

 

ACTIVE REGIONS

             

 

Earth directed?

   

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

     

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

     
TYPE II and IV RADIO EMISSIONS (1) STEREO- AHEAD

(2) STEREO- BEHIND

(3) SoHO- LASCO C3

(4) SDO /AIA-comp.

  (5) SDO /AIA-comp.

 

Abbreviations >

LDE=

Long Duration Event

 

 

 

 

 

 

try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

internal remarks

                       

2012

alien-homepage.de

 

 

 

TODAY`S CME ARRIVALS:

 

CME TRACKING >

 

ARRIVAL AT SAT:

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

 

STRENGTH:    

TRACKING NR. >>

81/12

SOLAR EVENT DATA

CME EVENT

APPROACHING >

ACE/ GOES

GOES

 

UTC

UTC   CME ARRIVAL DATA (EARTH)  

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT. SOLAR EVENT

ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

after 15:00 UTC

PEAK VALUE  

> 100 nT

MAIN POLARITY: REL. MASS VALUE* MAIN IMPACT REGIONS  

OCT- 31- 2012

11595 (spotless)

around 90° W

appr 30 ° S

eruptive prominence in spotless region

20121028

08:05 UTC

first solar wind shock:

ongoing

  15:00 - 24 UTC 15:00 UTC     ATLANTIC  
REMARKS:    

165 nT

   

long/lat:

long/lat:

ELECTRONS

*internal

SECONDARY IMPACT REGIONS  
 

 

 

      45° W- 180° W

45° W

  ATLANTIC- USA WEST  
                             

LAST CME ARRIVALS:

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

DATE OF LAST CME ARRIVAL >

20121031

NUMBER  81/ 12

eruptive prominence

STRENGTH >

165 nT

CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs

00

ACTIVE>

   

 

LATEST CME EVENTS:

           

 

LATENCY EFFECTS

     

 

ERUPTION DAY >

20120927/ 17:20

20120927/ 23:42

20121005/ 04 UTC 20121007/ 7:00 UTC 20121022/ 18:59 UTC 20121028/ 08:04  

(this section refers to parameters known to influence terrestrial CME effects, such as: . paradox proton effects , CH a.o.)

 
CMEs BY TRACKING NRS.>

not numbered

77/ 12

78/ 12

79/12

80/12 partial?

81/12     FIRST IMPACT LAST IMPACT LATENCY: PROTONLATENCY /END * ELECTRONS EFFECTIVE UNTIL:

 

ERUPTION TYPE: C4 flare in AR 11579

PROTONS

CH (magnetic eruption?) (LDE) filament eruption South of CH 538 impulsive M5 flare in AR 11598 eruptive prominence in spotless region 11595     OCT- 08 OCT- 10? CME CLUSTER NONE NONE

 

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL

SEP 09- 10

OCT- 03

OCT- 08?

OCT- 10

OCT- 24- 25    

 

SEP- 30

single CME

PROTONS

OCT- 09

OCT- 09- 23: : Electron 2MeV Integral Flux > 1000pfu
ARRIVED ON:   OCT- 03

OCT- 08

OCT- 12   OCT- 31- 15 UTC                

EXTERNAL SOURCES( CME):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NASA/ ACE: CME and SOLAR WIND/Analysis system>

ACE/ EPAM: ELECTRONS

ACE/SIS: PROTONS

RU/ MOSCOW: NEUTRONS

 

NASA/ISWA/animation of interplanetary CME evolution a.m.o.

 

NASA ARCHIVES>

NASA/ NOAA- PROTON FLUX/ arch

GOES/ 3 days X-RAY FLUX

GOES/ ELECTRONS

GOEShp ( MAG)

 

VARIOUS>

 

 

 

Magn complexity/ particle acceleration

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, ote, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED TO COVER ALL ENTROPIC UNCERTAINTIES . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20121031

int. CME Nr. >>

81/ 12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT: LARGER EVENTS ARE LIKELY WITH LATENCIES

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

45°- 135° W (120° W)

MEDIUM

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

(THUNDER-) STORMS

ICELAND/ CANARIES

< VOLCANISM/ QUAKES >

N- AMERICA >< EURASIA

 

 

 

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

USA- WEST

< GEOGRAPHIC >

N/S- AMERICA >< PACIFIC

 

31- OCTOBER - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

CALIFORNIA

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

JUAN DE FUCA/ COCOS

 

M 5.5- 6.5

(2-3) CME ARRIVAL

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

SOUTH AMERICA

PACIFIC>< INDO- AUS

 

01- NOVEMBER - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS

SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5- 7.5

2-3

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

45° 180° W

CARIBBEAN >< N- AMERICA

 

02- NOVEMBER - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

AMERICAS

ATLANTIC

 

M 5.5- 7.5

1-2

 

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME

E- PACIFIC/ JAPAN

*REGIONS> see definition below

S-AMERICA >< NASCA

 

 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES*          

 

*BY TECTONICS COOLING DOWN          

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/GEO.magnetometer

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES> PROTON INFLUENCE EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS (END: OCT- 23)

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS > PARADOX EFFECTS /LATENCIES

EQ- LATENCY- END

 

QUIET

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. A sudden impulse of 13 nT was observed at the Boulder magnetometer at 31/1539Z due to the arrival of a CME. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REPORTS /LINKS

 

MINOR STORM (CH HSS)

 

S. RADIATION STORM

   

 

MAJOR STORM  

ELECTRON INCREASE

 

 

   

 

  / PROTON STORM NONE NONE  
internal remarks:

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE NONE

 

 

      RADIO BLACKOUTS NONE NONE
 
 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE NONE  

 

OCT- 31- 2012: an CME- stronger than anticipated - impacted today at around 15:00 UTC . The impact began above the Western and central Atlantic and was ongoing at time of this update . With the first impact shock, the geomagnetic field density reached a maximum of 162 Nano Tesla (nT) = strong ( 2-3)

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT

 

EXPLANATIONS>

Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.

Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./

Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME or CME cluster/

 

HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST>

INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions!

STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS

The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER a LATENCY period due to CME IMPACT on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES within the RED until the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Read "latency remarks"

 

REGIONS

REGION "A"

REGION "B"

REGION "C"

REGION" D"

REGION "E"

REGION "F"

 

 

REGIONS COVERED BY LATEST CME IMPACT>

EASTERN EURASIA- CHINA- INDONESIA- PHILIPPINES--AUSTRALIA WEST ALEUT./ KAMCHATKA- JAPAN/EAST- AUSTRALIA/ (EAST), PNG. NZL WESTERN USA+ WEST COAST- EASTERN PACIFIC- CANADA-ALASKA

EASTERN ATLANTIC/ PANAMERICA/ CENTRAL USA/ CENTRAL AND WEST PARTS OF SOUTH AMERICA

CENTRAL (WEST) EUROPE/ AFRICA, EAST ATLANTIC. CANARIES - CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA/ EAST

INDIA & INDIAN OCEAN- AFRICA (EAST), ARABIA ASIA MINOR

RELATED CME EVENT: 20121007

 

RELATED TECTONIC BOUNDARIES>

PACIFIC< EURASIA>< INDO-AUSTRALIA

NORTH AMERICA (W) >< EURASIA (E) ><PACIFIC (E)

NORTH AMERICA/ incl. Microplates ><PACIFIC

AFRICA >< CARRIBEAN >< SOUTH AMERIA >< NASCA>< COCOS

EURASIA <> N-AMERICA/WESTCARRIBEAN ><AFRICA

EURASIA><ARABIA ><INDO-AUSTRALIA

CME ARRIVAL:

 

UTC TIME ZONES >

..

.......

...

...

......

..

20121031

 

LONGITUDES>

120° E- 90° E

135° E- 180° - 135° W

90° W- 135° W

45° W- 90° W

45° W - 00° W- 45° E

45° E- 90° E

Nr.: 81/12

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

OCTOBER

 

DAY:

30

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

 

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 6.2 - QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION - 2012-10-30 02:49:02 UTC

MAP:

EMSC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EARTHQUAKES TODAY

REPORTS:

NAME of REGION

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME

MAGNITUDE

DEPTH

CATHEGORY

GOOGLE EARTH:

 

 

QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION

52.26 N ; 132.08 W

2012-10-30 02:49:02 UTC M 6.2

10 km

 

---

 

                 

 

 

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

 

 

 

 

 

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

EVENTS WITH PARTICULAR QUAKESHIGHER THAN M 2 AND EXCEEDING M 3.0:

EMSC

 

                     

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

no tropical storm reported so far

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground.com Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy OCT- 20-2012 S- GULF OF MEXICO

75 MPH ()

75.4°W 

39.8° N

ABOVE PHILADELPHIA / USA

NW

(TS) 01    
wunderground.com Invest 98E OCT- 27- 2012 EASTERN PACIFIC

35 MPH (+)

115.1° W

14.0° N

APPR. 700 KM SWW OF MANZANILLO/ MEXICO WNW L    
wunderground.com Invest 99E OCT- 29- 2012 EASTERN PACIFIC

30 MPH ()

107.0° W 

13.6° N

APPR 350 KM SW OF ACAPULCO/ MEXICO WNW L    
wunderground.com Tropical Cyclone Two OCT- 29- 2012 INDIAN OCEAN

45 MPH

83.4° E

8.8° N

APPR 100 KM EAST OF SHRI LANCA/ INDIA NE L    

 

                   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  SDO REAL TIME

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2 - SOLAR

 

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

56

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

275-298

FLARES >

C

 

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

106

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 2.2

 

M

 

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

03

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

15- 115

 

X

 

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

OVERALL SOLAR ACTIVITY TODAY

ACTIVE

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20121006

INCREASING < LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

 

201209013

20120926

 

rotating out

11596

78° - 92° W

06° N

Eho/Beta-Gamma

 

 

 

 

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

 

11598

37° - 51° W

12° S

beta-gamma-delta  

 

 

 

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

 

11599

07 ° - 21° W

11° S

simple alpha magnetic class

 

       

N-P-CH-EXT

NORTH

SHIFTING

OCT- 20

OCT 29- 30

 

 
 

15600

52° - 64° W

09° N

           

CH 544

APPR 30° S

GROWING

OCT- 27

NOV- 01

RECURRENT

 
NEWLY EMERGED

15601

15° - 01° E

10° S

  OCT- 31        

CH 543

APPR 30° N GROWING

OCT- 29

OCT 30-31

   
NEWLY EMERGED

15602

65° - 51° E

20° S

  NOV- 03

 

 

 

 

LAST- NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (N-P - CH- EXT)

OCT-19 - ?

previous: SEP- 19

 

                 

 

LAST- SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT)

OCT- 19-

previous: SEP- 19

 

           

 

 

 

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

NONE

 

 

                 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

                 

 

FILAMENTS ERUPTIONS >

 

 

NEWLY EMERGED                  

remarks >

   
REMARKS>          
      abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class. alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**

 

 

 

 

red letters = currently most active region

*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson)

 

SOLAR/ INTERPLANETARY:

Electron 2MeV Integral Flux was > 1000 pfu since OCT 09

 

                    LATEST CME IMPACT MAP (internal) GOES ELECTRON FLUX:  

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA

         

 

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

2012

NOAA/ RSGA

 

 

SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1598 (S11W51) produced a B8 flare at 0137Z. A filament eruption occurred from 0640Z to 0855Z near S32E07 with a heliographic extent of 24 degrees. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for low level activity.

 

 

 

 

CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)

       

 

 

(date)

CMEs at:

NONE

ARRIVAL:

(estimated): Oct- 25- 26

POLARITY: UNKNOWN BETA ALPHA (PROTONS)    

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, ote, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED TO COVER ALL ENTROPIC UNCERTAINTIES . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20121008

int. CME Nr. >>

78/ 12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT: LARGER EVENTS ARE LIKELY WITH LATENCIES

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

60°- 135° W (120° W)

MEDIUM

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

(THUNDER-) STORMS

EASTERN PACIFIC

< VOLCANISM/ QUAKES >

N- AMERICA >< EURASIA

 

 

 

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

USA- WEST

< GEOGRAPHIC >

N/S- AMERICA >< PACIFIC

 

30- OCTOBER - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

CALIFORNIA

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

JUAN DE FUCA/ COCOS

 

M 5.5- 7.0

(2-3) DECREASE

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

SOUTH AMERICA

PACIFIC>< INDO- AUS

 

31- OCTOBER - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS

SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5- 6.5

1-2

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

30° E- 00° W- 150° E

E- EURASIA >< N- AMERICA

 

01- NOVEMBER - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

PANAMERICA

ATLANTIC

 

M 5.5- 6.5

1-2

 

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME

E- PACIFIC/ JAPAN

*REGIONS> see definition below

S-AMERICA >< NASCA

 

 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES*          

 

*BY TECTONICS COOLING DOWN          

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/GEO.magnetometer

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES> PROTON INFLUENCE EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS (END: OCT- 23)

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS > PARADOX EFFECTS /LATENCIES

EQ- LATENCY- END

 

QUIET

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REPORTS /LINKS

 

MINOR STORM (CH HSS)

 

S. RADIATION STORM

   

 

MAJOR STORM  

ELECTRON INCREASE

 

 

   

 

  / PROTON STORM NONE NONE  
internal remarks:

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE NONE

 

 

      RADIO BLACKOUTS NONE NONE
 
 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE NONE  

 

OCT- 30: The geomagnetic field is still under influence of hightened electron flux that is no more that typical late effect of the last proton event but likely origins from solar wind streams.

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

OCTOBER

 

DAY:

29

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

 

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.2 - NIAS REGION, INDONESIA - 2012-10-29 02:22:44 UTC

MAP:

EMSC

 

 

 

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

 

 

 

 

 

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

EVENTS WITH PARTICULAR QUAKESHIGHER THAN M 2 AND EXCEEDING M 3.0:

EMSC

 

QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION (!!)

OCTOBER - 28-2012 MAP

11

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 5.1 - QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION - 2012-10-29 20:14:29 UTC  

NORTHERN SEA: GREENLAND AND ICELAND REGION

OCTOBER - 20-2012 MAP

02

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.7 - NORTH OF SVALBARD - 2012-10-29 14:54:51 UTC  

REGION CHILE / ARGENTINE ( SA/ NASCA PLATE)

FREQUENT/ OCT- 2012 MAP

05

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.4 - OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE - 2012-10-29 14:22:49 UTC  

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012 MAP MAP

05

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.2 - CENTRAL CALIFORNIA - 2012-10-29 04:25:16 UTC  

PANAMERICA

FREQUENT SINCE 2012 MAP

03

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.8 - NEAR COAST OF NICARAGUA - 2012-10-29 14:35:13 UTC  

EASTERN TURKEY / Near city of VAN

PERMANENT MAP

06

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.8 - EASTERN TURKEY - 2012-10-29 19:40:11 UTC  

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

 

OTHER QUAKE SWARMS WITH MAGNITUDES > M 2.0 < M 3.0

EMSC

 

CANARY ISLANDS REGION / MAINLY NEAR EL HIERRO

SINCE JUNE- 2011 CANARIES/ EL HIERRO

00

   

 

VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION

SEPTEMBER 16- 2012 MAP

00

 

NORTHERN ITALY

SINCE MAR 2012 NORTHERN ITALY

01

 

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

JULY 2012

MAP

03

 

WESTERN TURKEY

PERMANENT( higher since 2011) MAP

04

     
           

* at time of this update!

Rapid Earthquake viewer last CME impact map

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

no tropical storm reported so far

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground.com Tropical Storm Sandy OCT- 20-2012 S- GULF OF MEXICO

75 MPH ()

70.5°W 

35.2° N

APRR. 300 KM OFFSHORE SEE OF NORFOLK/ VIRGINIA BEACH/

N

(TS) 01    
wunderground.com Invest 98E OCT- 27- 2012 EASTERN PACIFIC

30 MPH ()

112.4° W 

13.0° N

APPR. 600 KM SWW OF MANZANILLO/ MEXICO WNW L    
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Son-tinh OCT- 23- 2012 WESTERN PACIFIC

70 MPH (-)

106.9° E 

21.4° N

ABOVE HAIPHONG/ NORTHERN VIETNAM WNW TS    

 

                   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  SDO REAL TIME

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2 - SOLAR

 

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

75

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

273-355

FLARES >

C

 

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

108

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 3.8

 

M

 

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

03

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

70- 110 nT

 

X

 

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

OVERALL SOLAR ACTIVITY TODAY

ACTIVE

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20121006

INCREASING < LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

 

201209013

20120926

 

rotating out

         

 

 

 

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

 

11596

64° - 78° W

06° N

Eho/Beta-Gamma

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

 

11597

71°- 85° W

22° S

small bi-polar region-faded?

         

N-P-CH-EXT

NORTH

SHIFTING

OCT- 20

OCT 29- 30

 

 
 

11598

23° - 37° W

12° S

beta-gamma-delta          

CH 544

APPR 30° S

GROWING

OCT- 27

NOV- 01

RECURRENT

 
 

11599

04 ° E- 10° W

11° S

simple alpha magnetic class

OCT- 29

                     
 

15600

38° - 52° W

09° N

   

 

 

 

 

LAST- NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (N-P - CH- EXT)

OCT-19 - ?

previous: SEP- 19

 

                 

 

LAST- SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT)

OCT- 19-

previous: SEP- 19

 

NEWLY EMERGED          

 

 

 

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

NONE

 

 

                 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

                 

 

FILAMENTS ERUPTIONS >

 

 

NEWLY EMERGED                  

remarks >

   
REMARKS>          
      abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class. alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**

 

 

 

 

red letters = currently most active region

*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson)

 

SOLAR/ INTERPLANETARY:

Electron 2MeV Integral Flux was > 1000 pfu since OCT 09

 

                    LATEST CME IMPACT MAP (internal) GOES ELECTRON FLUX:  

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA

         

 

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

2012

NOAA/ RSGA

 

 

SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The largest and only event of the period was a B6 flare at 29/0302Z from Region 1596 (N05W79). Regions 1601 (S10E11) and 1602 (S17E65) were numbered today. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected during the reporting period. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares.

 

 

 

 

CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)

       

 

 

(date)

CMEs at:

 

ARRIVAL:

(estimated): Oct- 25- 26

POLARITY: UNKNOWN BETA ALPHA (PROTONS)    

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, ote, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED TO COVER ALL ENTROPIC UNCERTAINTIES . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20121008

int. CME Nr. >>

78/ 12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT: LARGER EVENTS ARE LIKELY WITH LATENCIES

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

60°- 135° W (120° W)

MEDIUM

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

(THUNDER-) STORMS

EASTERN PACIFIC

< VOLCANISM/ QUAKES >

N- AMERICA >< EURASIA

 

 

 

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

USA- WEST

< GEOGRAPHIC >

N/S- AMERICA >< PACIFIC

 

29- OCTOBER - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

CALIFORNIA

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

JUAN DE FUCA/ COCOS

 

M 5.5-> 7.5

2-3 (CME ARRIVAL ?)

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

SOUTH AMERICA

PACIFIC>< INDO- AUS

 

30- OCTOBER - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS

SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5- 7.0

(2-3) DECREASE

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

30° E- 00° W- 150° E

E- EURASIA >< N- AMERICA

 

31- OCTOBER - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

PANAMERICA

ATLANTIC

 

M 5.5- 6.5

1-2

 

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME

E- PACIFIC/ JAPAN

*REGIONS> see definition below

S-AMERICA >< NASCA

 

 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES*          

 

*BY TECTONICS COOLING DOWN          

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/GEO.magnetometer

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES> PROTON INFLUENCE EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS (END: OCT- 23)

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS > PARADOX EFFECTS /LATENCIES

EQ- LATENCY- END

 

QUIET

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REPORTS /LINKS

 

MINOR STORM (CH HSS)

 

S. RADIATION STORM

   

 

MAJOR STORM  

ELECTRON INCREASE

 

 

   

 

  / PROTON STORM NONE NONE  
internal remarks:

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE NONE

 

 

      RADIO BLACKOUTS NONE NONE
 
 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE NONE  

 

 

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

OCTOBER

 

DAY:

28

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

 

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 7.7 - QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION - 2012-10-28 03:04:10 UTC

MAP:

EMSC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EARTHQUAKES TODAY

REPORTS:

NAME of REGION

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME

MAGNITUDE

DEPTH

CATHEGORY

GOOGLE EARTH:

 

 

QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION

52.77 N ; 131.93 W

2012-10-28 03:04:10 UTC M 7.7    

---

 

                 
     
        click on the links (in COURIER FONTS) to get latest reports:  

SEAQUAKE AND TSUNAMI

DATE: OCT- 28- 2012/ 3:04 UTC   LAST UPDATE OCT- 29- 2012/ =::33 UTC

related TSUNAMI WARNING CENTERS

 

OFFSHORE BRITISH COLUMBIA/ CANADA

USA/ PACIFIC COAST

OCT- 28-/ 03:58 HST/ THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS ENDED FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII EFFECTIVE AT 0358 AM HST

NOAA Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre  Hawai, USA  
LATEST NOAA REPORT AT TIME OF THIS UPDATE>   HAWAII/ 359 AM HST SUN OCT 28 2012EVALUATION TSUNAMI WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE STATE OF HAWAII ARE NOW BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AND ARE CONTINUING TO DIMINISH. BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER IS NOW CANCELLING THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY. SMALLER SEA LEVEL CHANGES AND STRONG OR UNUSUAL CURRENTS MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL ADDITIONAL HOURS AND APPROPRIATE CAUTION SHOULD BE EXERCISED BY BOATERS AND SWIMMERS. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL MESSAGE ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL DATA ARE RECEIVED.  

EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS>

DATE/ UTC INITIAL SEA QUAKE MAGNITUDE DEPTH COORDINATES

EARTHQUAKE REPORT (EMSC/ USGS)

 
  QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDSREGION M 7.7 17 KM 52.77 N ; 131.93 W M 7.7 - QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION - 2012-10-28 03:04:10 UTC  
INITIAL /FIRST TSUNAMI EVALUATION BY NOAA/ PTWC > please note: THIS INITIAL REPORT MIGHT NOT BE VALID ANYMORE!        
NOAA REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY:  

click for original NOAA report >

NOAA BULLETIN

1450Z 05 SEP 2012/ 14:50 ITC

A TSUNAMI WARNING WAS ISSUEDFOR:

 
REGIONS OF ORIGIN: TSUNAMI COORDINATES: WAVE AMPLITUDE WAVE FREQUENCY: ISSUED AT TSUNAMI END A WIDESPREAD DESTRUCTIVE TSUNAMI THREAT DOES NOT EXIST BASED ON HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA. THE WEST COAST AND ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE INFORMATION REGARDING ANY LOCAL TSUNAMI THREAT TO COASTS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY BULLETIN ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. THE WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE PRODUCTS FOR ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...WASHINGTON...OREGON...CALIFORNIA.  
WINTER HARBOUR BC

50.5N

128.0W

0.23M

30MIN

04:13 UTC

ongoing

 
LANGARA POINT BC

48.8N

129.6W

0.06M

12 MIN

03:46 UTC

---

 
REPORTS:    

HAWAII- 709 PM HST SAT OCT 27 2012

A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN GENERATED THAT COULD CAUSE DAMAGE ALONG COASTLINES OF ALL ISLANDS IN THE STATE OF HAWAII. URGENT ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT LIVES AND PROPERTY.THE ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME IN HAWAII OF THE FIRST TSUNAMI WAVE IS 1028 PM HST SAT 27 OCT 2012 MESSAGES WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER AS CONDITIONS WARRANT  
HAWAII/ 359 AM HST SUN OCT 28 2012 EVALUATION TSUNAMI WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE STATE OF HAWAII ARE NOW BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AND ARE CONTINUING TO DIMINISH. BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER IS NOW CANCELLING THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY. SMALLER SEA LEVEL CHANGES AND STRONG OR UNUSUAL CURRENTS MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL ADDITIONAL HOURS AND APPROPRIATE CAUTION SHOULD BE EXERCISED BY BOATERS AND SWIMMERS. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL MESSAGE ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL DATA ARE RECEIVED.  
                    :  

 

 

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

 

 

 

 

 

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

EVENTS WITH PARTICULAR QUAKESHIGHER THAN M 2 AND EXCEEDING M 3.0:

EMSC

 

QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION (!!)

OCTOBER - 28-2012 MAP

58

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 6.4 - QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION - 2012-10-28 18:54:21 UTC  

PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION

AUGUST- 28- 2012 MAP

06

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 5.4 - PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION - 2012-10-28 02:43:10 UTC  

GULF OF MEXICO REGION/ CARRIBBEAN PLATE (USGS)

OCTOBER 2012 MAP

02

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE:    

KAMCHATKA PENINSULA, RUSSIA

FREQUENT

MAP

04

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.9 - KAMCHATKA PENINSULA, RUSSIA - 2012-10-28 19:09 UTC  

SOUTHERN ITALY

FREQUENT ( 2012) MAP

11

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.1 - SOUTHERN ITALY - 2012-10-28 03:37:46 UTC  

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

 

OTHER QUAKE SWARMS WITH MAGNITUDES > M 2.0 < M 3.0

EMSC

 

CANARY ISLANDS REGION / MAINLY NEAR EL HIERRO

SINCE JUNE- 2011 CANARIES/ EL HIERRO

00

   

 

VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION

SEPTEMBER 16- 2012 MAP

02 (- M 3.2)

 

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012 MAP MAP

05 (- M 3.2)

 

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

JULY 2012

MAP

03

 

NORTHERN ITALY

SINCE MAR 2012 NORTHERN ITALY

04

     

WESTERN TURKEY

PERMANENT( higher since 2011) MAP

03

     

EASTERN TURKEY / Near city of VAN

PERMANENT MAP

03

     
           

* at time of this update!

Rapid Earthquake viewer last CME impact map

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

no tropical storm reported so far

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground.com Tropical Storm Sandy OCT- 20-2012 S- GULF OF MEXICO

75 MPH ()

73.7°W 

31.5° N

APRR. 300 KM OFFSHORE EAST OF CAROLINA

NE

(TS) 01    
wunderground.com Invest 98E OCT- 27- 2012 EASTERN PACIFIC

30 MPH ()

110.8° W

11.4° N

APPR. 500 KM SWW OF MANZANILLO/ MEXICO WNW L    
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Son-tinh OCT- 23- 2012 WESTERN PACIFIC

115 MPH (+)

107.2° E

18.4° N

APPR 60 KM OFFSHORE THE COAST OF CENTRAL VIETNAM WNW (TS) 03    

 

                   

EARTH QUAKE AND TSUNAMI / US WEST COAST

             

20121028

report by:

vancouversunl

 

'Our hearts are still beating fast' Magnitude 7.7. quake recorded off Haida Gwaii At least four communities evacuated

A magnitude 7.7 earthquake centered in the Queen Charlotte Islands region was felt across the province late Saturday evening, a reminder for British Columbians to be prepared for ‘the Big One.The quake, which hit at 8:04 p.m. Saturday, originated in Haida Gwaii, about 199 kilometres west of Prince Rupert, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Up to eight aftershocks followed including an initial magnitude 5.8 aftershock at 8:14 p.m. and a magnitude 4.8 aftershock later at 8:52 p.m. Communities were evacuated on Hawaii Gwaii and at Port Edward on the mainland. Tsunami warnings were extended for the Queen Charlotte Islands, the north coast of B.C. including Bella Bella and Bella Coola stretching down to the northern tip of Vancouver Island. Tsunami advisories, a lower category of warning, were put out for the rest of Vancouver Island into the Capitol District.“At first, we thought that it was the beginning of a storm or a large military vehicle passing by,” he told the Province. “We ran to the nearest doorway and felt the whole room sway and shake.” After the initial shaking stopped, Querengesser said he and others quickly drove to a tsunami evacuation zone. ...read more...

 

 

             

20121028

report by:

edition.cnn.com

 

Canada quake triggers Hawaii tsunami scare

(CNN) -- A tsunami warning for Hawaii, triggered by a powerful earthquake in Canada, proved nothing more than a pre-Halloween scare for thousands of people this weekend. "The tourists are doing their best Chicken Little impressions," one CNN iReporter in West Maui, Hawaii, wrote early Sunday. Sirens announced the tsunami warning across Hawaii on Saturday night, as thousands of revelers packed streets in Honolulu for the annual Hallowbaloo festival and many others in costumes headed to Halloween parties. Restaurants, clubs and the festival immediately shut down and the parties turned into bumper-to-bumper traffic jams as residents headed to higher ground. Visions of the devastating quake and tsunami that killed thousands in Japan in March 2011 fueled the fright, but the waves proved to be smaller and less powerful than feared. While the warning said waves could surge between 3 and 6 feet, the largest wave, measured in Kahului on the island of Maui, was about 2.5 feet above ambient sea level, according to Gerard Fryer, senior geophysicist at the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center. The evacuation orders for coastal residents and the tsunami warning were canceled by 1 a.m. in Hawaii (7 a.m. ET) and a tsunami advisory was put in its place. That advisory was lifted three hours later...read more...

 

                                 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  SDO REAL TIME

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2 - SOLAR

 

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

91

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

284-378

FLARES >

C

01

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

117

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 3.2

 

M

 

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

04

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

60- 102 nT

 

X

 

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

OVERALL SOLAR ACTIVITY TODAY

ACTIVE

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20121006

DECREASING < LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

 

201209013

20120926

 

rotating out

         

 

 

 

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

 

11596

51° - 65° W

06° N

Eho/Beta-Gamma

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

 

11597

71°- 85° W

22° S

small bi-polar region-faded?

          N-P-CH-EXT

NORTH

GROWING

OCT- 20 OCT 24-28

unknown

 
 

11598

10° - 24° W

12° S

beta-gamma-delta                        
 

11599

17 °- 03° E

11° S

simple alpha magnetic class

OCT- 29

                     
 

15600

27° - 41° W

09° N

   

 

 

 

 

LAST- NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (N-P - CH- EXT)

OCT-19 - ?

previous: SEP- 19

 

                 

 

LAST- SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT)

OCT- 19- partial

previous: SEP- 19

 

NEWLY EMERGED          

 

 

 

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

NONE

 

 

                 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

                 

 

FILAMENTS ERUPTIONS >

 

 

NEWLY EMERGED                  

remarks >

   
REMARKS>          
      abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class. alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**

 

 

 

 

red letters = currently most active region

*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson)

 

SOLAR/ INTERPLANETARY:

Electron 2MeV Integral Flux was > 1000pfu ( after proton fare) from OCT 08 until OCT 23

 

                    ) GOES ELECTRON FLUX:  

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA

         

 

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

2012

NOAA/ RSGA

 

 

SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The only C class event, a long duration C1 flare was observed at 28/0805Z. An active region around the west limb appears to have been the source of the event and LASCO C2/C3 indicate an associated CME occurred. Analysis of the CME via LASCO and STEREO indicate that the transient should not affect Earth. However, further analysis of the CME noted in the forecast yesterday has determined that there were two separate events, both from filament eruptions, and both with Earthward trajectories. A new, but unnumbered region, is beginning to rotate around the Southeast limb of the disk. All regions currently on the disk were unchanged or in decay. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low for days one through three (29-31 October).

 

 

 

 

EARTH- DIRECTED CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)

       

 

 

(date)

CMEs at:

08:05 UTC

ARRIVAL:

(estimated): Oct- 30- 31

POLARITY: UNKNOWN BETA ALPHA (PROTONS)    

TRACKING NR.:

81/ 12

20121028/ 11.54 UTC   20121018/ 12:30 UTC 20121028/ 07:42 UTC    

GOES/ X-RAY FLUX: (Solar nuclear activity)

 

ACTIVE REGIONS

spotless AR

     

 

Earth directed?

partially

 

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

appr 90° W/ 45° S

   

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

LDE activity beginning after 07 UTC/ eruptive prominence

C 1

 
TYPE II and IV RADIO EMISSIONS (1) STEREO- AHEAD

(2) STEREO- BEHIND

(3) SoHO- LASCO C3

(4) SDO /AIA-comp.

  (5) SDO /AIA-comp.

 

Abbreviations >

LDE=

Long Duration Event

 

 

 

 

 

 

try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, ote, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED TO COVER ALL ENTROPIC UNCERTAINTIES . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20121008

int. CME Nr. >>

78/ 12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT: LARGER EVENTS ARE LIKELY WITH LATENCIES

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

60°- 135° W (120° W)

MEDIUM

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

(THUNDER-) STORMS

EASTERN PACIFIC

< VOLCANISM/ QUAKES >

N- AMERICA >< EURASIA

 

 

 

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

USA- WEST

< GEOGRAPHIC >

N/S- AMERICA >< PACIFIC

 

28- OCTOBER - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

CALIFORNIA

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

JUAN DE FUCA/ COCOS

 

M 5.5-> 7.5

2-3

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

SOUTH AMERICA

PACIFIC>< INDO- AUS

 

29- OCTOBER - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS

SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5-> 7.5

2-3 (CME ARRIVAL ?)

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

30° E- 00° W- 150° E

E- EURASIA >< N- AMERICA

 

30- OCTOBER - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

PANAMERICA

ATLANTIC

 

M 5.5- 7.0

(2-3)PRELIMINARY

 

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME

E- PACIFIC/ JAPAN

*REGIONS> see definition below

S-AMERICA >< NASCA

 

 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES*          

 

*BY TECTONICS COOLING DOWN          

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/GEO.magnetometer

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES> PROTON INFLUENCE EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS (END: OCT- 23)

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS > PARADOX EFFECTS /LATENCIES

EQ- LATENCY- END

 

QUIET

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REPORTS /LINKS

 

MINOR STORM (CH HSS)

 

S. RADIATION STORM

   

 

MAJOR STORM  

ELECTRON INCREASE

 

 

   

 

  / PROTON STORM NONE NONE  
internal remarks:

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE NONE

 

 

      RADIO BLACKOUTS NONE NONE
 
 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE NONE  

 

 

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

OCTOBER

 

DAY:

27

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

 

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.3 - NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G. - 2012-10-27 20:13:03 UTC

MAP:

EMSC

 

 

 

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

 

 

 

 

 

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

EVENTS WITH PARTICULAR QUAKESHIGHER THAN M 2 AND EXCEEDING M 3.0:

EMSC

 

SICILY, ITALY

FREQUENT MAP

03

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.4 - SICILY, ITALY - 2012-10-27 09:50:46 UTC  

REGION CHILE / ARGENTINE ( SA/ NASCA PLATE)

FREQUENT/ OCT- 2012 MAP

09

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.3 - OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE - 2012-10-27 12:33:04 UTC  

PANAMERICA

FREQUENT SINCE 2012 MAP

01

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE:

M 4.9/ 2012/10/27 16:22:10 CHIAPAS, MEXICO

 

GULF OF MEXICO REGION/ CARRIBBEAN PLATE (USGS)

OCTOBER 2012 MAP

01

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.2- MONA PASSAGE, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC- 2012/10/27 16:46:42  

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

JULY 2012

MAP

04

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.3 - DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE - 2012-10-27 10:23:43 UTC  

PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION

FREQUENT MAP

05

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 5.2 - PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION - 2012-10-27 15:46:27 UTC  

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

 

OTHER QUAKE SWARMS WITH MAGNITUDES > M 2.0 < M 3.0

EMSC

 

CANARY ISLANDS REGION / MAINLY NEAR EL HIERRO

SINCE JUNE- 2011 CANARIES/ EL HIERRO

00

   

 

VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION

SEPTEMBER 16- 2012 MAP

01

 

NORTHERN ITALY

SINCE MAR 2012 NORTHERN ITALY

00

 
           

* at time of this update!

Rapid Earthquake viewer last CME impact map

 

MEDIA REPORTS:             20121024

report by:

.boston.com

 

   

 

                     

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

note: allthough CME impacts are regularly coincident at least with TEMPORARY volcano acticity increases, my time does not allow to introduce such

< stats

 

DETAILLED resp. "FINE TUNED"statistic reports as required to communicate this!. This section therefor can only refer to changes in "ALERT LEVELS" as published by GVP. Click on the buttons (right) to findat least more detailled internal reports >

maps >

 
REGION:
NAME/USGS datalink:
GEOGRAPHIC POSITION: LAT. / LONG.
VOLCANO NUMBER
VOLCANO TYPE
WEBCAM DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL MAP: LOCAL SURVEY

 

  ILIAMNA 60°1'55"N/ 153°5'25"W 1103-02 Stratovolcano Hi* ILIAMNA

OCT- 27- 2012

 

NorthAm

AVO

 

Wikipedia:

                   
           

20120814

report by:

GVP

 

AVO reported that during 24-30 October seismicity at Iliamna remained slightly elevated. Clear satellite and web camera views showed nothing unusual. The Alert Level remained at Advisory and the Aviation Color Coderemained at Yellow.

 

                               
REGION:
NAME/USGS datalink:
GEOGRAPHIC POSITION: LAT. / LONG.
VOLCANO NUMBER
VOLCANO TYPE
WEBCAM DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL MAP: LOCAL SURVEY

 

  POAS 10°12'0"N/ 84°13'58"W 1405-04= Stratovolcano Hi* POAS   OCT- 27- 2012

 

CentrAm

OVSICORI- UNA

 

Wikipedia:

                   
           

20120814

report by:

GVP

 

OVSICORI-UNA reported that a phreatic eruption at Poás was recorded at 1120 on 27 October. A phreatic eruption later that day (at 1757) ejected water, sulfur-rich sediments, and rock fragments out of the lake. The ejecta landed on the S and SW edges of the crater floor. According to a news article, local residents heard a loud rumble at about 0100 on 28 October; a phreatic eruption ejected sediment 500 m above the lake, and produced ashfall several hundreds of meters away.

 

                               

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

no tropical storm reported so far

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground.com Tropical Storm Sandy OCT- 20-2012 S- GULF OF MEXICO

75 MPH (-)

76.9°

28.1° N

N OF BAHAMAS/ APPR. 250 KM NE OF MIAMI

NNE

01    
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Son-tinh OCT- 23- 2012 WESTERN PACIFIC

85 MPH (+)

109.7° E

17.0° N

APPR. 250 KM WEST OF LUCON/ PHILIPPINES WNW TS    
                                 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NP-CH-EXT and AR 11598 on 20121026/ STARMAP by: solen.info SDO REAL TIME

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2 - SOLAR

 

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

 

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

 

FLARES >

C

 

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

 

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

 

 

M

 

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

 

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

 

 

X

 

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

OVERALL SOLAR ACTIVITY TODAY

INCREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20121006

INCREASING < LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

 

201209013

20120926

 

rotating out

11594

87° - 101° W

25° S

REEMERGED

 

 

 

 

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

 

11596

37° - 51° W

06° N

Eho/Beta-Gamma

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

 

11597

71°- 85° W

22° S

small bi-polar region-faded?

          N-P-CH-EXT

NORTH

GROWING

OCT- 20 OCT 24-28

unknown

 
 

11598

04°E - 10° W

12° S

Dkc/Beta-Delta spot group

OCT- 27

                     
 

11599

47°- 33° E

11° S

simple alpha magnetic class

OCT- 30

                     
           

 

 

 

 

LAST- NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (N-P - CH- EXT)

OCT-19 - ?

previous: SEP- 19

 

                 

 

LAST- SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT)

OCT- 19- partial

previous: SEP- 19

 

NEWLY EMERGED

15600

12° - 26° W

09° N

   

 

 

 

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

NONE

 

 

                 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

                 

 

FILAMENTS ERUPTIONS >

 

 

NEWLY EMERGED                  

remarks >

   
REMARKS>          
      abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class. alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**

 

 

 

 

red letters = currently most active region

*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson)

 

SOLAR/ INTERPLANETARY:

Electron 2MeV Integral Flux was > 1000pfu ( after proton fare) from OCT 08 until OCT 23

 

                      GOES ELECTRON FLUX:  

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA

         

 

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

2012

NOAA/ RSGA

 

 

SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Three low-level C-class flares were observed from behind the west limb, likely from old Region 1594 (S27, L=200). Region 1598 (S11W10), a Dkc/Beta-Delta spot group, remained the most magnetically complex region on the visible disk and produced a B9/Sf flare at 27/1235Z. Region 1596 (N08W48), a Dao/Beta-Gamma spot group, has shown signs of penumbral decay, mainly in its trailer spots. The remaining two spot groups were stable and unremarkable. A CME was observed in STEREO Ahead COR 2 imagery at 27/1824Z. Further analysis will be performed to determine its geo-effectiveness as data becomes available. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for isolated M-class flares for the next three days (28-30 October).

 

 

 

 

CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)

       

 

 

(date)

CMEs at:

18:42 UTC

REVIEW/ update: CMEs observed between OCT 22 and 28 were minor geoeffective/ but raised geomag field density    

TRACKING NR.:

none

20121027/ 20:39 UTC     20121027/ 18:42 UTC    

GOES/ X-RAY FLUX: (Solar nuclear activity)

 

ACTIVE REGIONS

AR 11596

  no images available    

 

Earth directed?

likely

 

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

37° - 51° W

06° N

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

filament eruption ( PROTON EVENT?) NONE  
TYPE II and IV RADIO EMISSIONS (1) STEREO- AHEAD

(2) STEREO- BEHIND

(3) SoHO- LASCO C3

(4) SDO /AIA-comp.

  (5) SDO /AIA-comp.

 

Abbreviations >

LDE=

Long Duration Event

 

 

 

 

 

 

try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

internal remarks

                       

2012

alien-homepage.de

 

T(4) A kind of strange filament eruption was observed on Oct 27 beginning after 19 UTC: A strange black cloud or filament erupted North of AR 11596 on the southern edge of the currently large Northern polar CH extension and formed a black plume when collapsing again.(4) he event ended with a minor flare in AR 11596 . PROTON FLUX SLIGHTLY INCREASED AFTER 22:30 UTC

 
                             

EXTERNAL SOURCES( CME):

NASA/ ACE: CME and SOLAR WIND/Analysis system>

ACE/ EPAM: ELECTRONS

ACE/SIS: PROTONS

RU/ MOSCOW: NEUTRONS

 

NASA/ISWA/animation of interplanetary CME evolution a.m.o.

 

NASA ARCHIVES>

NASA/ NOAA- PROTON FLUX/ arch

GOES/ 3 days X-RAY FLUX

GOES/ ELECTRONS

GOEShp ( MAG)

 

VARIOUS>

 

 

 

Magn complexity/ particle acceleration

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, ote, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED TO COVER ALL ENTROPIC UNCERTAINTIES . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20121008

int. CME Nr. >>

78/ 12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT: LARGER EVENTS ARE LIKELY WITH LATENCIES

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

60°- 135° W (120° W)

MEDIUM

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

(THUNDER-) STORMS

EASTERN PACIFIC

< VOLCANISM/ QUAKES >

N- AMERICA >< EURASIA

 

 

 

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

USA- WEST

< GEOGRAPHIC >

N/S- AMERICA >< PACIFIC

 

27- OCTOBER - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

CALIFORNIA

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

JUAN DE FUCA/ COCOS

 

M 5.5-6.5

1-2 ( CME WIND STREAMS)

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

SOUTH AMERICA

PACIFIC>< INDO- AUS

 

28- OCTOBER - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS

SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5- 7.0

1-2( CME WIND STREAMS)

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

30° E- 00° W- 150° E

E- EURASIA >< N- AMERICA

 

29- OCTOBER - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

PANAMERICA

ATLANTIC

 

M 5.5- 6.0

(2-3)PRELIMINARY

 

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME

E- PACIFIC/ JAPAN

*REGIONS> see definition below

S-AMERICA >< NASCA

 

 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES*          

 

*BY TECTONICS COOLING DOWN          

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/GEO.magnetometer

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES> PROTON INFLUENCE EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS (END: OCT- 23)

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS > PARADOX EFFECTS /LATENCIES

EQ- LATENCY- END

 

QUIET

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, remained steady at approximately 350 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field had minor deflections of +/- 5 nT while the total field remained steady at 5 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REPORTS /LINKS

 

MINOR STORM (CH HSS)

 

S. RADIATION STORM

   

 

MAJOR STORM  

ELECTRON INCREASE

 

 

   

 

  / PROTON STORM NONE NONE  
internal remarks:

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE NONE

 

 

      RADIO BLACKOUTS NONE NONE
 
 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE NONE  

 

OCT- 27: A minor disturbance was observed after 02 UTC, possibly the arrival of a portion of numerous minor- mainly filament eruptions observed during the past days (mainly around unspotted region AR 11596- meanwhile spotted ) or an CH HS Solar wind Stream from a closing CH.

- A slight rise in GEOMAGNETIC FIELD DENSITY accomponied by minor tremors oserved during tha last two days likely was likely caused by some solar wind streams crossing the earth`s path from minor filament eruptions and CMEs during the past days

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT

 

EXPLANATIONS>

Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.

Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./

Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME or CME cluster/

 

HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST>

INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions!

STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS

The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER a LATENCY period due to CME IMPACT on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES within the RED until the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Read "latency remarks"

 

REGIONS

REGION "A"

REGION "B"

REGION "C"

REGION" D"

REGION "E"

REGION "F"

 

 

REGIONS COVERED BY LATEST CME IMPACT>

EASTERN EURASIA- CHINA- INDONESIA- PHILIPPINES--AUSTRALIA WEST ALEUT./ KAMCHATKA- JAPAN/EAST- AUSTRALIA/ (EAST), PNG. NZL WESTERN USA+ WEST COAST- EASTERN PACIFIC- CANADA-ALASKA

EASTERN ATLANTIC/ PANAMERICA/ CENTRAL USA/ CENTRAL AND WEST PARTS OF SOUTH AMERICA

CENTRAL (WEST) EUROPE/ AFRICA, EAST ATLANTIC. CANARIES - CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA/ EAST

INDIA & INDIAN OCEAN- AFRICA (EAST), ARABIA ASIA MINOR

RELATED CME EVENT: 20121007

 

RELATED TECTONIC BOUNDARIES>

PACIFIC< EURASIA>< INDO-AUSTRALIA

NORTH AMERICA (W) >< EURASIA (E) ><PACIFIC (E)

NORTH AMERICA/ incl. Microplates ><PACIFIC

AFRICA >< CARRIBEAN >< SOUTH AMERIA >< NASCA>< COCOS

EURASIA <> N-AMERICA/WESTCARRIBEAN ><AFRICA

EURASIA><ARABIA ><INDO-AUSTRALIA

CME ARRIVAL:

 

UTC TIME ZONES >

..

.......

...

...

......

..

20121009

 

LONGITUDES>

120° E- 90° E

135° E- 180° - 135° W

90° W- 135° W

45° W- 90° W

45° W - 00° W- 45° E

45° E- 90° E

Nr.: 79/12

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

OCTOBER

 

DAY:

26

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

 

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.1 - SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS - 2012-10-26 21:38:18 UTC

MAP:

EMSC

 

 

 

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

 

 

 

 

 

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

EVENTS WITH PARTICULAR QUAKESHIGHER THAN M 2 AND EXCEEDING M 3.0:

EMSC

 

AFTERQUAKES/ SOUTHERN ITALY

FREQUENT/ RISE/ OCT 2012 MAP

30

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 2.9 - SOUTHERN ITALY - 2012-10-26 02:25:11 UTC  

TARAPACA, ( REGION CHILE / ARGENTINE : SA/ NASCA PLATE)

FREQUENT/ OCT- 2012 MAP

03

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.2 - OFF COAST OF TARAPACA, CHILE - 2012-10-26 21:20:06 UTC  

EASTERN TURKEY / Near city of VAN

PERMANENT MAP

06

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.0 - EASTERN TURKEY - 2012-10-26 10:47:59 UTC  

NEW: EASTERN COAST OF USA

OCT- 26- 2012 MAP

02

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 2.5 - NEW YORK-2012 10 26 04:34:59 UTC  

NORTHERN AND ARCTIC SEA/ REGION GREENLAND, ICELAND

JULY 2012

MAP

12

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.3 - WESTERN TURKEY - 2012-10-26 09:40:34 UTC  

NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

FREQUENT SINCE 2011-03-09 MAP

03

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.9 - NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN - 2012-10-26 10:36:31 UTC  

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

  OTHER QUAKE SWARMS WITH MAGNITUDES > M 2.0 < M 3.0

EMSC

 

ISLAND OF HAWAII, HAWAII

OCT- 26-2012

MAP

05

     

CANARY ISLANDS REGION / MAINLY NEAR EL HIERRO

SINCE JUNE- 2011 CANARIES/ EL HIERRO

00

 

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012 MAP MAP

02

 

US WEST COAST REGION / HERE: CANADA AND ALASKA (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012 MAP MAP

03 (- M3.0)

 
           

* at time of this update!

Rapid Earthquake viewer last CME impact map

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

no tropical storm reported so far

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground.com Tropical Storm Tony OCT- 21-2012 NORTHERN ATLANTIC

40 MPH (-)

34.0° W

31.2° N

APPR.1200 KM SW OF PORTUGAL/ SPAIN ENE TS    
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Sandy OCT- 20-2012 S- GULF OF MEXICO

90 MPH (-)

76.1° W

25.3° N

NEAR NASSAU / BAHAMAS

NNW

01    
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Son-tinh OCT- 23- 2012 WESTERN PACIFIC

65 MPH (+)

116.1° E

14.6° N

APPR. 250 KM WEST OF LUCON/ PHILIPPINES WNW TS    
wunderground.com Tropical Cyclone Murjan OCT- 24- 2012 N- ARABIAN SEA

35 MPH (-)

50.3° E

9.6° N

ABOVE NORTHEAST SOMALIA W L    

 

           

20121026

report by:

euronews  

Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy 

Magnitude 5 earthquake hits southern Italy, hospital evacuated

ROME (Reuters) – A magnitude 5 earthquake struck north of Cosenza in southern Italy early on Friday, and police said a hospital had been evacuated after cracks were found in its structure, but there were no reports of injuries. The quake hit at 1:05 a.m. (2305 GMT on Thursday) about 6.3 km (3.9 miles) underground, north of Cosenza in the Pollino mountains area on the border of the southern regions of Calabria and Basilicata, according to data from the Italian Geophysics Institute (INGV). It said on its website that at least 14 other tremors followed the initial earthquake...read more...

 

 

                   

HURRICANE "SANDY"

             

20121026

report by:

bbc.co.uk

 

'Frankenstorm' bears down on US east coast

Hurricane Sandy could merge with a winter storm to create what they have dubbed "Frankenstorm" as it churns towards the US, forecasters warn. Sandy has weakened to a category one hurricane, but is still packing maximum sustained winds of 75mph (120km/h). Sandy reportedly caused up to 40 deaths as it tore through the Caribbean on Thursday and Friday. The storm is projected to hit the US late on Monday, a week before the presidential election. States of emergency have been declared in Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington and a coastal county in North Carolina.

. On Thursday, Sandy caused a storm surge leading to severe flooding along Cuba's south-eastern coastline. Civil emergency authorities said 11 people had died as the storm lashed the island - nine of those in Santiago province and two in Guantanamo province, despite Cuba's well-rehearsed hurricane preparations. Most victims were killed by falling trees or collapsing buildings. "The hurricane was very big. I have never seen anything like it in my 54 years," said Santiago resident Reinaldo Rivas. Elsewhere, 20 deaths were reported in Haiti - where much of the infrastructure remains in a poor condition following a massive earthquake in 2010. More than 1,000 people sought refuge in shelters there, as Sandy caused widespread power outages, flooded streets and damaged buildings. Four fatalities were reported across the Dominican Republic, Jamaica and the Bahamas.... read more...

 

                                 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  SDO REAL TIME

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2 - SOLAR

 

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

71

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

294-371

FLARES >

C

08

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

130

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 5.1

 

M

 

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

05

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

75- 115 nT

 

X

 

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

OVERALL SOLAR ACTIVITY TODAY

INCREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20121006

INCREASING < LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

 

201209013

20120926

 

 

11596

23° - 37° W

06° N

Eho/Beta-Gamma

OCT- 24

 

 

 

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

 

11597

71°- 85° W

22° S

small bi-polar region-faded?

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

 

11598

17°- 03° E

12° S

beta-gamma-delta OCT- 26         N-P-CH-EXT appr. 30° E CLOSING OCT- 20 OCT 24- 25

unknown

 
 

11599

57°- 43° E

11° S

simple alpha magnetic class                        
                                 
           

 

 

 

 

LAST- NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (N-P - CH- EXT)

OCT-19 - ?

previous: SEP- 19

 

                 

 

LAST- SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT)

OCT- 19- partial

previous: SEP- 19

 

NEWLY EMERGED          

 

 

 

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

NONE

 

 

                 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

                 

 

FILAMENTS ERUPTIONS >

 

 

NEWLY EMERGED                  

remarks >

   
REMARKS>          
      abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class. alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**

 

 

 

 

red letters = currently most active region

*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson)

 

SOLAR/ INTERPLANETARY:

Electron 2MeV Integral Flux was between 1000 and 10.000 pfu ( after proton fare) from OCT 08 until OCT 23

 

                    LATEST CME IMPACT MAP (internal) GOES ELECTRON FLUX:  

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA

         

 

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

2012

NOAA/ RSGA

 

 

SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 1598 (S12E04), a Dko/Beta-Delta spot group, remained the most magnetically complex region, yet only produced a C1/Sf flare at 26/1607Z. The most active region was an area of enhanced plage near S27W87, formerly Region 1594, where three low-level C-class flares originated. Region 1596 (N08W35) showed signs of umbral separation, and new Region 1600 (N09W14) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares for the next three days (27-29 October).

 

 

 

 

CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)

       

 

 

(date)

CMEs at:

NONE

ARRIVAL:

(estimated): Oct- 25- 26

POLARITY: UNKNOWN BETA ALPHA (PROTONS)    

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ELECTRON FLUX reached 1000 pfu.

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

(In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20121008

int. CME Nr. >>

78/ 12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT: LARGER EVENTS ARE LIKELY WITH LATENCIES

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

60°- 135° W (120° W)

MEDIUM

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

(THUNDER-) STORMS

EASTERN PACIFIC

< VOLCANISM/ QUAKES >

N- AMERICA >< EURASIA

 

 

 

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

USA- WEST

< GEOGRAPHIC >

N/S- AMERICA >< PACIFIC

 

26- OCTOBER - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

CALIFORNIA

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

JUAN DE FUCA/ COCOS

 

M 5.5- 7.0

2-3

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

SOUTH AMERICA

PACIFIC>< INDO- AUS

 

27- OCTOBER - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS

SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5- 7.0

2-3

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

30° E- 00° W- 150° E

E- EURASIA >< N- AMERICA

 

28- OCTOBER - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

PANAMERICA

ATLANTIC

 

M 5.5- 6.0

PRELIMINARY

 

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME

E- PACIFIC/ JAPAN

*REGIONS> see definition below

S-AMERICA >< NASCA

 

 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES*          

 

*BY TECTONICS COOLING DOWN          

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/GEO.magnetometer

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES> PROTON INFLUENCE EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS (END: OCT- 23)

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS > PARADOX EFFECTS /LATENCIES

EQ- LATENCY- END

 

QUIET

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, remained relatively steady at 350 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field remained mostly positive, with minor deflections of +/-4 nT, while the total field held steady at 4 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REPORTS /LINKS

 

MINOR STORM (CH HSS)

 

S. RADIATION STORM

   

 

MAJOR STORM  

ELECTRON INCREASE

 

 

   

 

  / PROTON STORM NONE NONE  
internal remarks:

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE NONE

 

 

      RADIO BLACKOUTS NONE NONE
 
 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE NONE  

 

OCT- 23: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit increased on OCT 08 following the proton events end of Sept 2012 and remained at high levels until Oct- 23. This Electron flux began to DECREASE again significantly on OCT 23. As expected, major Earthquakes activities set in along the recent CME impact zone soon after and may likely continue for the coming days. OCT- 24: A new increase in solar activity became significant on October 20 and will likely reach its peak INCREASE in the coming days . The extreme AR 11598 rotated into view after Oct 20 and will be in a centrally EARTH FACING position on Oct 26. AR 11598 still increases in size and activity with several flares and CME per day and after amajor X 1.8 flare ( without CME) on OCT 23. It might be capable for DANGEROUS PROTON EVENTS

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

OCTOBER

 

DAY:

25

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

 

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.3 - SOUTHERN ITALY - 2012-10-25 23:05:26 UTC

MAP:

EMSC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EARTHQUAKES TODAY

REPORTS:

NAME of REGION

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME

MAGNITUDE

DEPTH

CATHEGORY

GOOGLE EARTH:

 

 

SOUTHERN ITALY 39.88 N ; 16.03 E 2012-10-25 23:05:26 UTC M 5.3 5 KM  

---

 

                 

 

 

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

 

 

 

 

 

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

EVENTS WITH PARTICULAR QUAKESHIGHER THAN M 2 AND EXCEEDING M 3.0:

EMSC

 

SOUTHERN ITALY

FREQUENT/ RISE/ OCT 2012 MAP

07

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.3 - SOUTHERN ITALY - 2012-10-25 23:16:02 UTC  

REGION CHILE / ARGENTINE ( SA/ NASCA PLATE)

FREQUENT/ OCT- 2012 MAP

08

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.9 - MENDOZA, ARGENTINA - 2012-10-25 05:37:58 UTC  

NORTHERN ITALY

SINCE MAR 2012 MAP

01

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.0 - NORTHERN ITALY - 2012-10-25 23:07:10 UTC  

US WEST COAST REGION / HERE: CANADA AND ALASKA (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012 MAP MAP

08

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.5 CENTRAL ALASKA. 2012-10-25- 12:57:36 UTC  

GULF OF MEXICO REGION/ CARRIBBEAN PLATE (USGS)

OCTOBER 2012 MAP

02

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.4 - ISLA SAONA, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC- 2012 10 25- 20:26:44 UTC  

NORTHERN AND ARCTIC SEA/ REGION GREENLAND, ICELAND

JULY 2012

MAP

02

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.6 - WESTERN GREENLAND - 2012-10-25 11:19:56 UTC  

NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

FREQUENT SINCE 2011-03-09 MAP

01

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 5.6 - NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN - 2012-10-25 10:32:27 UTC  

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

 

OTHER QUAKE SWARMS WITH MAGNITUDES > M 2.0 < M 3.0

EMSC

 

CANARY ISLANDS REGION / MAINLY NEAR EL HIERRO

SINCE JUNE- 2011 CANARIES/ EL HIERRO

00

   

 

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012 MAP MAP

03

 

WESTERN TURKEY

PERMANENT( higher since 2011) MAP

06

 

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

JULY 2012

MAP

01

 

EASTERN TURKEY / Near city of VAN

PERMANENT MAP

07

     
           

* at time of this update!

Rapid Earthquake viewer last CME impact map

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

no tropical storm reported so far

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground.com Tropical Storm Tony OCT- 21-2012 NORTHERN ATLANTIC

50 MPH (+)

40.3° W

30.1° N

APPR. 2000 KM SW OF PORTUGAL/ SPAIN ENE TS    
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Sandy OCT- 20-2012 S- GULF OF MEXICO

110 MPH (+)

76.1° W

19.6° N

LESS THAN 20 KM FROM SANTIAGO DE CUBA

NNE

02    
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Son-tinh OCT- 23- 2012 WESTERN PACIFIC

50 MPH (+)

121.6° E

12.4° N

NEARMINDORO ISLANDS/ PHILIPPINES WNW TS    
wunderground.com Tropical Cyclone Murjan OCT- 24- 2012 N- ARABIAN SEA

40 MPH ()

53.9° E 

10.5° N

100 KM EAST OF HORN OF AFRICA/RED SEA W L    

 

                   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  SDO REAL TIME

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2 - SOLAR

 

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

58

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

311-374

FLARES >

C

02

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

130

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 3.8

 

M

 

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

04

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

65- 105

 

X

 

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

OVERALL SOLAR ACTIVITY TODAY

LOW

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20121006

INCREASING < LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

 

201209013

20120926

 

rotating out

11591

89° - 103° W

07° N

bipolar D-type group

OCT- 18

 

 

 

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

 

11592

44° - 59° W

23° N

 

OCT- 16

 

 

 

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

 

11593

46° - 60° W

17° N

 

OCT- 21

        N-P-CH-EXT appr. 30° E DISSOLVING OCT- 20 OCT 24- 25

unknown

 
faded?

11594

27° - 41° W

26° S

simple bipolar

OCT- 20

                     
 

11596

08° - 22° W

06° N

Eho/Beta-Gamma

OCT- 24                      
 

11597

71°- 85° W

22° S

small bi-polar region-faded?

 

 

 

 

 

LAST- NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (N-P - CH- EXT)

OCT-19 - ?

previous: SEP- 19

 

 

11598

31°- 17° E

12° S

beta-gamma-delta OCT- 26      

 

LAST- SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT)

OCT- 19- partial

previous: SEP- 19

 

NEWLY EMERGED

11599

57°- 43° E

11° S

simple alpha magnetic class  

 

 

 

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

NONE

 

 

                 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

                 

 

FILAMENTS ERUPTIONS >

 

 

NEWLY EMERGED                  

remarks >

   
REMARKS>          
      abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class. alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**

 

 

 

 

red letters = currently most active region

*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson)

 

SOLAR/ INTERPLANETARY:

Electron 2MeV Integral Flux was > 1000pfu ( after proton fare) from OCT 08 until OCT 23

 

                    LATEST CME IMPACT MAP (internal) GOES ELECTRON FLUX:  

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA

         

 

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

2012

NOAA/ RSGA

 

 

SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 1598 (S12E18) produced a few low-level C-class events throughout the period, and remains the most magnetically complex region on the disk. Although Region 1598 continues to decay, a weak Delta magnetic configuration was still observed in the regions trailer spots. Region 1596 (N07W21) is a moderately sized region with some magnetic complexity, but did not produce any flares during the period. The other regions on the disk were either stable or decaying. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate with a chance for M-class events for the next three days (26 - 28 Oct) with Region 1598 the most likely source.

 

 

 

 

CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)

       

 

 

(date)

CMEs at:

NONE

ARRIVAL:

 

POLARITY: UNKNOWN BETA ALPHA (PROTONS)    

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

(In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20121008

int. CME Nr. >>

78/ 12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT: LARGER EVENTS ARE LIKELY WITH LATENCIES

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

60°- 135° W (120° W)

MEDIUM

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

(THUNDER-) STORMS

EASTERN PACIFIC

< VOLCANISM/ QUAKES >

N- AMERICA >< EURASIA

 

ACTIVE ELECTRONS-END!

 

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

USA- WEST

< GEOGRAPHIC >

N/S- AMERICA >< PACIFIC

 

25- OCTOBER - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

CALIFORNIA

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

JUAN DE FUCA/ COCOS

 

M 5.5- 7.0

2-3 RANDOM CME-WINDS

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

SOUTH AMERICA

PACIFIC>< INDO- AUS

 

26- OCTOBER - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS

SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5- 7.5

2-3

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

30° E- 00° W- 150° E

E- EURASIA >< N- AMERICA

 

27- OCTOBER - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

PANAMERICA

ATLANTIC

 

M 5.5- 7.0

preliminary

 

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME

E- PACIFIC/ JAPAN

*REGIONS> see definition below

S-AMERICA >< NASCA

 

 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES*          

 

*BY TECTONICS COOLING DOWN          

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/GEO.magnetometer

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES> PROTON INFLUENCE EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS (END: OCT- 23)

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS > PARADOX EFFECTS /LATENCIES

EQ- LATENCY- END

 

QUIET

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, was predominately steady around 350 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/- 4 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REPORTS /LINKS

 

MINOR STORM (CH HSS)

 

S. RADIATION STORM

   

 

MAJOR STORM  

ELECTRON INCREASE

 

 

   

 

  / PROTON STORM NONE NONE  
internal remarks:

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE NONE

 

 

      RADIO BLACKOUTS NONE NONE
 
 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE NONE  

 

The geomagnetic field was under the influence of weak solar wind streams from the filament eruption observed on OCT-22 ( 80/12) and field density rose for some percentage. The strong X 1.8 class explosive flare on OCT- 23 HAD NOT PRODUCED ANY CME:

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

OCTOBER

 

DAY:

24

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

 

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 6.4 - COSTA RICA - 2012-10-24 00:45:34 UTC

MAP:

EMSC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EARTHQUAKES TODAY

REPORTS:

NAME of REGION

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME

MAGNITUDE

DEPTH

CATHEGORY

GOOGLE EARTH:

 

 

COSTA RICA 10.19 N ; 85.25 W 2012-10-24 00:45:34 UTC M 6.4 20 km  

---

 

                 

 

 

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

 

 

 

 

 

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

EVENTS WITH PARTICULAR QUAKESHIGHER THAN M 2 AND EXCEEDING M 3.0:

EMSC

 

ICELAND REGION (!!)

OCTOBER - 20-2012 MAP

01

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.4 - ICELAND REGION - 2012-10-24 22:20:20 UTC  

REGION CHILE / ARGENTINE ( SA/ NASCA PLATE)

FREQUENT/ OCT- 2012 MAP

05

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.5 - SALTA, ARGENTINA - 2012-10-24 22:05:50 UTC  

US WEST COAST REGION / HERE: CANADA AND ALASKA (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012 MAP MAP

09

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.5 - NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY, CANADA - 2012-10-24 13:36:43 UTC  

PANAMERICA

FREQUENT SINCE 2012 MAP

02

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE:

M 4.5/ 2012/10/24 01:55:27/ M 4.3- 2012/10/24 01:36:43 

 

GULF OF MEXICO REGION/ CARRIBBEAN PLATE (USGS)

OCTOBER 2012 MAP

01

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 5.3 - CAYMAN ISLANDS REGION - 2012-10-24 17:55:57 UTC  

EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.

SOMETIMES MAP

02

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.6 - NEAR N COAST OF NEW GUINEA, PNG. - 2012-10-24 00:02:52 UTC  

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

 

OTHER QUAKE SWARMS WITH MAGNITUDES > M 2.0 < M 3.0

EMSC

 

CANARY ISLANDS REGION / MAINLY NEAR EL HIERRO

SINCE JUNE- 2011 CANARIES/ EL HIERRO

00

   

 

VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION

SEPTEMBER 16- 2012 MAP

 

 

NORTHERN ITALY

SINCE MAR 2012 NORTHERN ITALY

00

 

WESTERN TURKEY

PERMANENT( higher since 2011) MAP

10

 

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

JULY 2012

MAP

04

 

EASTERN TURKEY / Near city of VAN

PERMANENT MAP

06

     
           

* at time of this update!

Rapid Earthquake viewer last CME impact map

 

MEDIA REPORTS:             20121024

report by:

.boston.com

 

6.5 earthquake shakes Costa Rica's Pacific coast

SAN JOSE, Costa Rica (AP) — A powerful earthquake struck Costa Rica’s Pacific coast on Tuesday, swaying buildings and sending people running into the streets in the nation’s capital of San Jose. The 6.5-magnitude quake was centered in the Guanacaste region of the Central American country, only 5 miles (8 kilometers) from the popular tourist town of Nicoya, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. It had a depth of 24.5 miles (39.5 kilometers), according to a preliminary report. At the beach of Matapalo, an hour drive from Nicoya, residents said they heard a roaring sound when the quake struck.The original quake was felt in San Jose, where people ran out of buildings fearing they would collapse. Vanessa Rosales, president of Costa Rica’s National Commission for Emergencies, said no one had reported serious damage from Tuesday’s quake. Red Cross officials also said no damages had been reported yet. Rosales said that on Wednesday they will have a more complete picture of what the quake did....read more...

 

                     

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

note: allthough CME impacts are regularly coincident at least with TEMPORARY volcano acticity increases, my time does not allow to introduce such

< stats

 

DETAILLED resp. "FINE TUNED"statistic reports as required to communicate this!. This section therefor can only refer to changes in "ALERT LEVELS" as published by GVP. Click on the buttons (right) to findat least more detailled internal reports >

maps >

 
volcano-discovery/gadget

note: this report does NOTnecessarely represent all currently global active volcanoes!

      20121023 report by: GVP  

 

Smithsonian / USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report

17 October-23 October 2012

New Activity/Unrest: | Alaid, Kuril Islands (Russia) | Kliuchevskoi, Central Kamchatka (Russia) | Raung, Eastern Java (Indonesia) 
Ongoing Activity: | Fuego, Guatemala | Galeras, Colombia | Karymsky, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) |Kilauea, Hawaii (USA) | Little Sitkin, Aleutian Islands | Pagan, Mariana Islands | Popocatépetl, México |Sakura-jima, Kyushu | Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia)

This page is updated on Wednesdays. Please see the GVP Home Page for news of the latest significant activity.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

no tropical storm reported so far

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground.com Tropical Storm Tony OCT- 21-2012 NORTHERN ATLANTIC

40 MPH (+)

49.2° W

26.7° N

APPR. 1000 km NE of MONTSERRAT N TS    
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Sandy OCT- 20-2012 S- GULF OF MEXICO

60 MPH (+)

77.2° W

15.2° N

APPR .200 KMS OF JAMAICA

NNE

TS    
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Son-tinh OCT- 23- 2012 WESTERN PACIFIC

40 MPH ()

126.4° E

9.5° N

NEAR BUTUAN / SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES NW TS    

 

                   

HURRICANE SEASON / TS 2"SANDY"

              20121025

report by:

.bbc.co.uk

 

One person killed as Hurricane Sandy batters Jamaica

A man has been crushed to death by boulders as Hurricane Sandy sweeps across Jamaica, moving north to Cuba. The category one hurricane struck the island on Wednesday, unleashing heavy rains and winds of 125km/h (80mph). Schools and airports are closed, and a curfew has been imposed in major towns. A police officer was shot and injured by looters in the capital, Kingston. A hurricane warning has also been issued in Cuba, where Sandy is expected to make its next landfall. Moving at 22km/h, the hurricane struck Kingston on Wednesday evening and headed north, emerging off the island's northern coast near the town of Port Antonio. Sandy has prompted a hurricane watch in the Bahamas, while Florida has been placed on tropical storm watch...read more...incl. video source!

( click on image left for latest NOAA forecast!)

 

                                 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CH and AR on 20121023/ STARMAP by solen.info SDO REAL TIME

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2 - SOLAR

 

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

78

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

343-354

FLARES >

C

09

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

135

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 4.7

 

M

 

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

04

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

62- 105 nT

 

X

 

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

OVERALL SOLAR ACTIVITY TODAY

LOW

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20121006

INCREASING < LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

 

201209013

20120926

 

rotating out

11591

76° - 90° W

07° N

bipolar D-type group

OCT- 18

 

 

 

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

 

11592

44° - 59° W

23° N

 

OCT- 16

 

 

 

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

 

11593

31° - 45° W

17° N

 

OCT- 21

        N-P-CH-EXT appr. 30° E GROWING OCT- 20 OCT 24- 25

unknown

 
 

11594

27° - 41° W

26° S

simple bipolar

OCT- 20

                     
 

11596

05° E- 09° W

06° N

Eho/Beta-Gamma

OCT- 24                      
 

11597

71°- 85° W

22° S

small bi-polar region-faded?

 

 

 

 

 

LAST- NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (N-P - CH- EXT)

OCT-19 - ?

previous: SEP- 19

 

 

11598

43°- 29° E

12° S

beta-gamma-delta OCT- 26      

 

LAST- SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT)

OCT- 19- partial

previous: SEP- 19

 

NEWLY EMERGED

11599

70°- 56° E

11° S

simple alpha magnetic class  

 

 

 

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

NONE

 

 

                 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

                 

 

FILAMENTS ERUPTIONS >

 

 

NEWLY EMERGED                  

remarks >

   
REMARKS>          
      abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class. alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**

 

 

 

 

red letters = currently most active region

*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson)

 

SOLAR/ INTERPLANETARY:

Electron 2MeV Integral Flux was > 1000pfu ( after proton fare) from OCT 08 until OCT 23

 

                    LATEST CME IMPACT MAP (internal) GOES ELECTRON FLUX:  

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA

         

 

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

2012

NOAA/ RSGA

 

 

SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 1598 (S12E29) has produced numerous C-class events throughout the period, and remains the most magnetically complex region on the disk. Although slight decay was noted in Region 1598s trailer spots, it still maintains a Delta magnetic configuration. Region 1596 (N08W08) is moderately sized with some magnetic complexity, but did not produce any flares during the period. The other regions either remained stable or were decaying.IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high with occasional M-class events, and a slight chance for an isolated X-class event for the next three days (25 - 27 Oct) with Region 1598 the most likely source.

 

 

 

 

CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)

       

 

 

(date)

CMEs at:

 

REVIEW/ update: CMEs observed between OCT 22 and 28 were minor geoeffective/ but raised geomag field density    

TRACKING NR.:

        20121024/ 01:19 UTC   20121024/ 01:48 UTC

GOES/ X-RAY FLUX: (Solar nuclear activity)

 

ACTIVE REGIONS

11593

no images available no images available no images available  

 

Earth directed?

unclear

 

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

31° - 45° W

17° N  

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

C flare with ass. filament eruption C 2  
TYPE II and IV RADIO EMISSIONS (1) STEREO- AHEAD

(2) STEREO- BEHIND

(3) SoHO- LASCO C3

(4) SDO /AIA-comp.

  (5) SDO /AIA-comp.

 

Abbreviations >

LDE=

Long Duration Event

 

 

 

 

 

 

try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

internal remarks

                       

2012

alien-homepage.de

 

(4, 5) impulsive ( class C 2) flare with large associated filament eruption in unspotted AR 11593/ S 1997 on Oct 24/ after 01:19 UTC ( no associated x ray emmission). Other Satellite images were not available yet at the time of this update: SoHO had a transmission gap between 0: 54 and 09:30, STEREO Behind ws knocked out yesterady at 16: 42 UTC until today9:25 UTC and STEREO Ahead has no images between 16: 42 ( Oct 23) and 3:54 ( Oct- 24) . The event obviously has unleashed a major CME. Its course and size can be analysed if Sat transmission will resume or upon arrival at Earth

 
                             

LAST CME ARRIVALS:

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

DATE OF LAST CME ARRIVAL >

20121009

NUMBER > 79/ 12

filament eruption

STRENGTH >

165 nT (LDE)

CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs

01

ACTIVE>

   

 

LATEST CME EVENTS:

           

 

LATENCY EFFECTS

     

 

ERUPTION DAY >

20120927/ 17:20

20120927/ 23:42

20121005/ 04 UTC 20121007/ 7:00 UTC 20121022/ 18:59 UTC    

(this section refers to parameters known to influence terrestrial CME effects, such as: . paradox proton effects , CH a.o.)

 
CMEs BY TRACKING NRS.>

not numbered

77/ 12

78/ 12

79/12

80/12 partial?

      FIRST IMPACT LAST IMPACT LATENCY: PROTONLATENCY /END * ELECTRONS EFFECTIVE UNTIL:

 

ERUPTION TYPE: C4 flare in AR 11579

PROTONS

CH (magnetic eruption?) (LDE) filament eruption South of CH 538 impulsive M5 flare in AR 11598       OCT- 08 OCT- 10? CME CLUSTER NONE NONE

 

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL

SEP 09- 10

OCT- 03

OCT- 08?

OCT- 10

OCT- 24- 25    

 

SEP- 30

single CME

PROTONS

OCT- 09

OCT- 09- 23: : Electron 2MeV Integral Flux > 1000pfu
ARRIVED ON:   OCT- 03

OCT- 08

OCT- 12                    

EXTERNAL SOURCES( CME):

 

 

 

 

MINOR

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NASA/ ACE: CME and SOLAR WIND/Analysis system>

ACE/ EPAM: ELECTRONS

ACE/SIS: PROTONS

RU/ MOSCOW: NEUTRONS

 

NASA/ISWA/animation of interplanetary CME evolution a.m.o.

 

NASA ARCHIVES>

NASA/ NOAA- PROTON FLUX/ arch

GOES/ 3 days X-RAY FLUX

GOES/ ELECTRONS

GOEShp ( MAG)

 

VARIOUS>

 

 

 

Magn complexity/ particle acceleration

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

(In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20121008

int. CME Nr. >>

78/ 12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT: LARGER EVENTS ARE LIKELY WITH LATENCIES

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

60°- 135° W (120° W)

MEDIUM

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

(THUNDER-) STORMS

EASTERN PACIFIC

< VOLCANISM/ QUAKES >

N- AMERICA >< EURASIA

 

ACTIVE ELECTRONS-END!

 

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

USA- WEST

< GEOGRAPHIC >

N/S- AMERICA >< PACIFIC

 

24- OCTOBER - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

CALIFORNIA

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

JUAN DE FUCA/ COCOS

 

M 5.5- 7.5

2-3 MINOR CME ARRIVAL?

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

SOUTH AMERICA

PACIFIC>< INDO- AUS

 

25- OCTOBER - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS

SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5- 7.5

2-3 MINOR CME ARRIVAL?

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

30° E- 00° W- 150° E

E- EURASIA >< N- AMERICA

 

26- OCTOBER - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

PANAMERICA

ATLANTIC

 

M 5.5- 7.0

preliminary

 

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME

E- PACIFIC/ JAPAN

*REGIONS> see definition below

S-AMERICA >< NASCA

 

 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES*          

 

*BY TECTONICS COOLING DOWN          

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/GEO.magnetometer

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES> PROTON INFLUENCE EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS (END: OCT- 23)

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS > PARADOX EFFECTS /LATENCIES

EQ- LATENCY- END

 

QUIET

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, decreased slowly throughout the period from around 370 km/s to around 340 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged from +/- 2 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REPORTS /LINKS

 

MINOR STORM (CH HSS)

 

S. RADIATION STORM

   

 

MAJOR STORM  

ELECTRON INCREASE

 

 

   

 

  / PROTON STORM NONE NONE  
internal remarks:

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE

NONE

 

 

      RADIO BLACKOUTS NONE R 3
 
 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE NONE  

 

OCT- 23: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit increased on OCT 08 following the proton events end of Sept 2012 and remained at high levels until Oct- 23. This Electron flux began to DECREASE again significantly on OCT 23. As expected, major Earthquakes activities set in along the recent CME impact zone soon after and may likely continue for the coming days. OCT- 24: A new increase in solar activity became significant on October 20 and will likely reach its peak INCREASE in the coming days . The extreme AR 11598 rotated into view after Oct 20 and will be in a centrally EARTH FACING position on Oct 26. AR 11598 still increases in size and activity with several flares and CME per day and after amajor X 1.8 flare ( without CME) on OCT 23. It might be capable for DANGEROUS PROTON EVENTS

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT

 

EXPLANATIONS>

Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.

Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./

Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME or CME cluster/

 

HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST>

INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions!

STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS

The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER a LATENCY period due to CME IMPACT on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES within the RED until the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Read "latency remarks"

 

REGIONS

REGION "A"

REGION "B"

REGION "C"

REGION" D"

REGION "E"

REGION "F"

 

 

REGIONS COVERED BY LATEST CME IMPACT>

EASTERN EURASIA- CHINA- INDONESIA- PHILIPPINES--AUSTRALIA WEST ALEUT./ KAMCHATKA- JAPAN/EAST- AUSTRALIA/ (EAST), PNG. NZL WESTERN USA+ WEST COAST- EASTERN PACIFIC- CANADA-ALASKA

EASTERN ATLANTIC/ PANAMERICA/ CENTRAL USA/ CENTRAL AND WEST PARTS OF SOUTH AMERICA

CENTRAL (WEST) EUROPE/ AFRICA, EAST ATLANTIC. CANARIES - CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA/ EAST

INDIA & INDIAN OCEAN- AFRICA (EAST), ARABIA ASIA MINOR

RELATED CME EVENT: 20121007

 

RELATED TECTONIC BOUNDARIES>

PACIFIC< EURASIA>< INDO-AUSTRALIA

NORTH AMERICA (W) >< EURASIA (E) ><PACIFIC (E)

NORTH AMERICA/ incl. Microplates ><PACIFIC

AFRICA >< CARRIBEAN >< SOUTH AMERIA >< NASCA>< COCOS

EURASIA <> N-AMERICA/WESTCARRIBEAN ><AFRICA

EURASIA><ARABIA ><INDO-AUSTRALIA

CME ARRIVAL:

 

UTC TIME ZONES >

..

.......

...

...

......

..

20121009

 

LONGITUDES>

120° E- 90° E

135° E- 180° - 135° W

90° W- 135° W

45° W- 90° W

45° W - 00° W- 45° E

45° E- 90° E

Nr.: 79/12

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

OCTOBER

 

DAY:

23

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

 

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 6.0 - IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION - 2012-10-23 08:53:39 UTC

MAP:

EMSC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EARTHQUAKES TODAY

REPORTS:

NAME of REGION

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME

MAGNITUDE

DEPTH

CATHEGORY

GOOGLE EARTH:

 

 

IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION 29.11 N ; 139.20 E 2012-10-23 08:53:39 UTC M 6.0 446 km unnown

---

 

                 

 

 

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

 

 

 

 

 

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

EVENTS WITH PARTICULAR QUAKESHIGHER THAN M 2 AND EXCEEDING M 3.0:

EMSC

 

ICELAND REGION (!!)

OCTOBER - 20-2012 MAP

01

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.5 - ICELAND REGION - 2012-10-23 05:27:49 UTC  

OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

FREQUENT SINCE 20110311 MAP

03

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 5.3 - OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN - 2012-10-23 22:21:31 UTC  

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012 MAP MAP

05

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE:

M 3.7/ 2012/10/23 07:45:52 

 

PANAMERICA

FREQUENT SINCE 2012 MAP

01

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.5 - GUATEMALA - 2012-10-23 00:21:11 UTC  

EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.

SOMETIMES MAP

02

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 5.1 - EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G. - 2012-10-23 18:00:44 UTC  

AZORES ISLANDS, PORTUGAL

FREQUENT

MAP

06

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.5 - AZORES ISLANDS, PORTUGAL - 2012-10-23 15:52:54 UTC  

WESTERN TURKEY

PERMANENT( higher since 2011) MAP

07

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.2 - WESTERN TURKEY - 2012-10-23 14:54:26 UTC  

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

 

OTHER QUAKE SWARMS WITH MAGNITUDES > M 2.0 < M 3.0

EMSC

 

CANARY ISLANDS REGION / MAINLY NEAR EL HIERRO

SINCE JUNE- 2011 CANARIES/ EL HIERRO

00

   

 

VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION

SEPTEMBER 16- 2012 MAP

02 (- M 3.1)

 

NORTHERN ITALY

SINCE MAR 2012 NORTHERN ITALY

01

 

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

JULY 2012

MAP

02

 

EASTERN TURKEY / Near city of VAN

PERMANENT MAP

06

     
           

* at time of this update!

Rapid Earthquake viewer last CME impact map

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

no tropical storm reported so far

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground.com Tropical Depression Nineteen OCT- 21-2012 NORTHERN ATLANTIC

35 MPH (+)

51.8° W

23.0° N

APPR. 650 km NE of MONTSERRAT N TD    
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Sandy OCT- 20-2012 S- GULF OF MEXICO

34 MPH (+)

78.7° W

12.9° N

APPR .250 KM NE OF PANAMA

stationary

TS    

OUTER SPACE

                   

Largest image of Milky Way ever made

84 Million Stars are visible on a panorama image with a dimension of 9 Giga pixels. The image was made with the infrared telescope of the Paranal observatory situated in the in the desert of Atacama/ Chile. Its not possible to make and image of the entire Mikay Way galaxy from the earth . The image shows the outher spiral arm, we are living in. However- it just covers 1 % of the night sky and just a little portion around the center of our spiral galaxy. The massive black hole there forming the rotation center in in each Galaxy is what the scientist are most interested in.Click here or or the thumb ( left) for a zoomable version published by ESO/ Garching/ Munich/ Germany . The European Southern Observatory celebrates its 50th anniversary this year.

 

 

 

                   

GENTECH/ MONSANTO

              20121023

report by

naturalnews.com

 

India prepares to kick Monsanto to the curb

India files biopiracy lawsuit against Monsanto, says biotech giant is stealing nature for corporate gain

(NaturalNews) Representing one of the most agriculturally bio-diverse nations in the world, India has become a primary target for biotechnology companies like Monsanto and Cargill to spread their genetically-modified (GM) crops into new markets. However, a recent France 24 report explains that the Indian government has decided to take an offensive approach against this attempted agricultural takeover by suing Monsanto for "biopiracy," accusing the company of stealing India's indigenous plants in order to re-engineer them into patented varieties. Brinjal, also known in Western nations as eggplant, is a native Indian crop for which there are roughly 2,500 different unique varieties. Millions of Indian farmers grow brinjal, which is used in a variety of Indian food dishes, and the country grows more than a quarter of the world's overall supply of the vegetable.And in an attempt to capitalize on this popular crop, Monsanto has repeatedly tried to commercially market its own GM variety of brinjal called Bt brinjal. But massive public outcry against planned commercial approval of Monsanto's "frankencrop" variety in 2010 led to the government banning it for an indefinite period of time. ...read more...

 

                                 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  SDO REAL TIME

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2 - SOLAR

 

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

84

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

345-373

FLARES >

C

06

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

141

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 5.8

 

M

 

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

07

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

65- 115 nT

 

X

01

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

OVERALL SOLAR ACTIVITY TODAY

HIGHER

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20121006

INCREASING < LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

 

201209013

20120926

 

rotating out          

 

 

 

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

 

11590

55° - 69° W

30° S

faded

OCT- 16

 

 

 

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

 

11591

62° - 76° W

07° N

bipolar D-type group

OCT- 18

        N-P-CH-EXT appr. 30° E GROWING OCT- 20 OCT 24- 25

unknown

 
 

11592

44° - 59° W

23° N

 

OCT- 16

                     
 

11593

18° - 32° W

17° N

active (C class LDE flare)

OCT- 21

                     
 

11594

27° - 41° W

26° S

simple bipolar

OCT- 20

 

 

 

 

LAST- NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (N-P - CH- EXT)

OCT-19 - ?

previous: SEP- 19

 

 

11595

42°- 28° W

14° S

faded

       

 

LAST- SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT)

OCT- 19- partial

previous: SEP- 19

 

 

11596

18°- 04° E

06° N

Eho/Beta-Gamma

OCT- 24

 

 

 

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

NONE

 

 

 

11597

71°- 85° W

22° S

small bi-polar region-faded?

 

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

beta-gamma-delta

11598

57°- 43° E

12° S

X 1 class event after 3:00 UTC OCT- 26

 

FILAMENTS ERUPTIONS >

 

 

NEWLY EMERGED                  

remarks >

   
REMARKS>          
      abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class. alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**

 

 

 

 

red letters = currently most active region

*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson)

 

SOLAR/ INTERPLANETARY:

since OCT- 09: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux > 1000pfu

 

                    LATEST CME IMPACT MAP (internal) GOES ELECTRON FLUX:  

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA

         

 

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

2012

NOAA/ RSGA

 

 

SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been high. Region 1598 (S12E44) produced an X1 event with an associated Tenflare and Type-II radio sweep at 23/0317Z. There was no CME observed in association with this event. Region 1598 remains the most threatening region on the disk and appears to have a Delta magnetic configuration within its trailer spots. Region 1596 (N07E06) is also moderately sized and has some magnetic complexity, but did not produce any flares during the period. Region 1593 (N15W33) produced a long-duration C3 event at 23/0821Z with an associated CME seen on STEREO-A imagery. There is not enough data available to model the CME, but at this time it does not appear likely to be geoeffective. Newly numbered Region 1599 (S09E73) appears to have a simple alpha magnetic class. The other regions on the disk either remained stable or were decaying.

 

 

 

 

CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)

       

 

 

(date)

CMEs at:

NONE

REVIEW/ update: CMEs observed between OCT 22 and 28 were minor geoeffective/ but raised geomag field density    

TRACKING NR.:

none

20121023/ 10:54 UTC     20121023/ 03:26 UTC    

GOES/ X-RAY FLUX: (Solar nuclear activity)

 

ACTIVE REGIONS

11598

       

 

Earth directed?

NO CME

 

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

57°- 43° E

12° S

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

Impulsive flare

X 1.8  

TYPE II RADIO EMISSIONS

(1) STEREO- AHEAD

(2) STEREO- BEHIND

(3) SoHO- LASCO C3

(4) SDO /AIA-comp.

  (5) SDO /AIA-comp.

 

Abbreviations >

LDE=

Long Duration Event

 

 

 

 

 

 

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internal remarks

                       

2012

alien-homepage.de

 

OCT- 23- 2012: a strong X 2 event occured this morning at 3:17 UTC. NASA issued an R 3 x- ray radio blackout warning on Oct- 23 .(4) No rise in Earth directed proton flux was observed after the event. Only SDO submitted images of the event. Its likely but not sure whether this CME has Earth directed components. o CE was obviously emitted wit that event STEREO shows just a small CME, which seems to be associated to another minor flare in AR 11593 ( see USAF report above) . This small CME was fully halo,but almost uínvisibe on SoHO

 
                             

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

(In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20121008

int. CME Nr. >>

78/ 12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT: LARGER EVENTS ARE LIKELY WITH LATENCIES

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

60°- 135° W (120° W)

MEDIUM

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

(THUNDER-) STORMS

EASTERN PACIFIC

< VOLCANISM/ QUAKES >

N- AMERICA >< EURASIA

 

ACTIVE ELECTRONS (DECREASE)

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

USA- WEST

< GEOGRAPHIC >

N/S- AMERICA >< PACIFIC

 

23- OCTOBER - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

CALIFORNIA

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

JUAN DE FUCA/ COCOS

 

M 5.5- 6.5 ( POTENTIAL: >7.5)

2-3 (POTENTIAL)

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

SOUTH AMERICA

PACIFIC>< INDO- AUS

 

24- OCTOBER - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS

SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5- 7.0 ( POTENTIAL: >7.5)

CME ARRIVAL?

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

30° E- 00° W- 150° E

E- EURASIA >< N- AMERICA

 

25- OCTOBER - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

PANAMERICA

ATLANTIC

 

M 5.5- 7.0 ( POTENTIAL: >7.5)

CME ARRIVAL preiminary

 

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME

E- PACIFIC/ JAPAN

*REGIONS> see definition below

S-AMERICA >< NASCA

 

 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES*          

 

*BY TECTONICS COOLING DOWN          

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/GEO.magnetometer

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES> PROTON INFLUENCE EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS ( DIM..)

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS > PARADOX EFFECTS /LATENCIES

EQ- LATENCY ENDING!

 

QUIET

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, remained steady throughout the period at approximately 370 km/s. The Bz component o