-----------------------

 

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alien- homepage.de- Earth quake statistics- -SUN SPOT ACTIVITY- 11- years solar cycle- last update: SEP- 068- 2012- -07:00 UTC copyright: reserved

background image: Aurora Borealis /COMMONS / wikipedia
open source earthquake forecast project created and provided by: alien-homepage.de-

 

 

2012/ 13 - MAXIMUM OF 11- YEAR SOLAR CYCLE

SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG

ARCHIVE
SEPTEMBER - 2012

 

NASA STEREO BEACON

alien-homepage.de / internal links:

TRANSLATORS
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PROJECT CENTRAL:

ws

PAGES RELATED TO THIS SOLAR/TERRESTRIAL PROJECT>
>HAVE YOU ANY COMMENT?
               
SOHO REALTIME current view on the Sun
SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG/ ARCHIVES:
2012 >
SEPTEMBER    
2011 >
2010 >
NOTE: I WILL APPLY A NEW ARCHIVE SYSTEM IN 2012. CLICK ON THE BUTTON (right) FOR THE NEW ARCHIVE DIRECTORY! >

Note: Due to the high data amount in these monthly archives, I am currently trying to improve this by putting the single archives into collapsible panels.

Also I will split the monthly archive into 4 weekly ones. click on th following tabs to open the collapsible panels. You can report to my blog, if you should still experience problems when loading this page.

click here to open panel with graphics for volcano maps map , Earthquake statistic SEPTEMBER 2012
   

True and REAL TIME graphic solution, that makes obvious the coincidences of CME impacts and extraordinary natural phenomenons such as heavier Earthquakes, volcano eruptions, hurricanes. sudden ice meltdowns (floddings) and others

( click on the graphic top to enlarge it):

INTERNAL MAPS: click on the images or links below to get to my large regional maps, where you find all volcanoes around the world with descriptions , webcams and much more such as ancients sites! . Weekly regular activity updates, special earthquakes events with many functions

world volcano map 1.0

world volcano map version 2.0

Europe and Western Asia Africa and Arabic peninsula Central America and Mexico South America- Northern part South America- Southern part Central America and Mexico Northern America Kamchatka peninsula Japan region Indonesia and Philippines Australia and Southern Pacific

- incident graphic will be completed at the end of the month-

SPACECRAFTS:
SoHO
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
SDO /AIA
Solar Dynamics Observatory
STEREO
Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory
GOES
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites

ACE

 
Advanced Composition Explorer

^^ internal Earthquake statistics- with Sun activity curves : green = SUNSPOT NUMBER, Pink= SOLAR FLUX, blue= PLANETARY A INDEX

click here to see some of the paradox observations made during that solar cycle first possibly by observatory sopacecrafts: : CORONAL HOLES THOSE REAPPEAR DURING SEVERAL SOLAR ROTATION PERIODS ON THE SAME HELIOGRAPHIC POSITION

 

 

VIDEOS/ REPORTS OF THE WEEK- SEPTEMBER 2012:
 

 

 
click here to open and close collapsible panel with the archived "SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG" SEPTEMBER 22- 30- 2012
/ eruptive proinence / eruptive proinence

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

SEPTEMBER

 

DAY:

30

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

MAP:

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 7.2 - COLOMBIA - 2012-09-30 16:31:34 UTC

 

EMSC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EARTHQUAKES TODAY

REPORTS:

NAME of REGION

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME

MAGNITUDE

DEPTH

CATHEGORY

GOOGLE EARTH:

 

 

COLOMBIA

2.05 N ; 76.46 W

2012-09-30 16:31:34 UTC M 7.2

152 km

unknown

---

 

                 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EARTHQUAKES TODAY

REPORTS:

NAME of REGION

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME

MAGNITUDE

DEPTH

CATHEGORY

GOOGLE EARTH:

 

 

- OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN -

39.90 N ; 143.10 E

2012-10-01 22:21:46 UTC M 6.1

10 km

unknown

---

 

                 

 

 

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

 

 

 

 

 

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

EVENTS WITH PARTICULAR QUAKESHIGHER THAN M 2 AND EXCEEDING M 3.0:

EMSC

 

OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

OCTOBER 01- 2012 MAP

5

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 6.1 - OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN - 2012-10-01 22:21:46 UTC  

OFFSHORE PANAMERICA

FREQUENT

MAP

01

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 5.5 - OFF COAST OF JALISCO, MEXICO - 2012-10-01 17:32:31 UTC  

VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION

SEPTEMBER 16- 2012

MAP

05

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.2 2012/10/01 06:29:01   

WESTERN TURKEY

PERMANENT( higher since 2011) MAP     M 3.4 - WESTERN TURKEY - 2012-10-01 12:02:43 UTC  

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

  OTHER QUAKE SWARMS WITH MAGNITUDES > M 2.0 < M 3.0

EMSC

 
             

CANARY ISLANDS REGION / MAINLY NEAR EL HIERRO

SINCE JUNE- 2011 CANARIES/ EL HIERRO

00

 

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012

MAP

00

 

SOUTHERN ITALY

SEP 2012  

05

 

NORTHERN ITALY

SINCE MAR 2012 NORTHERN ITALY

01

 

EASTERN TURKEY- near VAN:

PERMANENT( higher since 2011)

EASTERN TURKEY-    
           

* at time of this update!

Rapid Earthquake viewer last CME impact map

 

MEDIA REPORTS:                  

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

note: allthough CME impacts are regularly coincident at least with TEMPORARY volcano acticity increases, my time does not allow to introduce such

< stats

 

DETAILLED resp. "FINE TUNED"statistic reports as required to communicate this!. This section therefor can only refer to changes in "ALERT LEVELS" as published by GVP. Click on the buttons (right) to findat least more detailled internal reports >

maps >

 
REGION:
NAME/USGS datalink:
GEOGRAPHIC POSITION: LAT. / LONG.
VOLCANO NUMBER
VOLCANO TYPE
WEBCAM DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL MAP: LOCAL SURVEY

 

             
 

 

 

 

GVP

 

Wikipedia:

                   
             

20120814

report by:

GVP

 

 

 

                               

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

no tropical storm reported so far

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground.com Tropical Storm Nadine

SEP- 19- 2012

ATLANTIC

85 MPH (+)

37.5° W

35.6° N

APPR. 300 KM SOUTHWEST OF AZORES NNW 2 reemerged on Sep-19  
wunderground.com Tropical Depression Norman

SEP- 26- 2012

EASTERN PACIFIC

30 MPH (-)

111.1° W 

25.9° N

APPR. 110 KM WEST OF LOS MOCHIS/ MEXICO/ GULF OF CALIFORNIA W TD    
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Jelawat

SEP- 20- 2012

WESTERN PACIFIC

70 MPH (-)

127.4° W  

26.1° N

120 KM SOUTHWEST OF TOKUSHIMA NE TS    
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Ewiniar

SEP- 19- 2012

WESTERN PACIFIC

40 MPH ()

149.2° E  

37.9° N

APPR 400 KM SEE OF FUKUSHIMA/ JAPAN NE TS    
(+) = storm speed was INCREASING (-) = storm speed was DECREASING = media report available (click on this symbol)    

 

                   

MEGAQUAKES AND GEOLOGICAL CHANGES

         

20120926

rpeort by:

/thewatchers

 

Indo-Australian plate is breaking up along a new plate boundary

Earth cracking up under Indian Ocean

YOU may not have felt it, but the whole world shuddered on 11 April, as Earth's crust began the difficult process of breaking a tectonic plate. When two huge earthquakes ripped through the floor of the Indian Ocean, they triggered large aftershocks on faults the world over, and provided the best evidence yet that the vast Indo-Australian plate is being torn in two. Geologists have spent five months puzzling over the twin quakes - of magnitude 8.6 and 8.2 - which took place off the coast of North Sumatra. Events that large normally occur at the boundary between tectonic plates, where one chunk of Earth's crust slides beneath another, but these were more than 100 kilometres from such a subduction zone. What's more, both involved rocks grinding past each other sideways with very little vertical movement - what geologists call strike-slip earthquakes. Yet strike-slip quakes this large had never been reported before. Matthias Delescluse at the École Normale Supérieure in Paris, France, and his colleagues have an explanation. They analysed quakes in the area since December 2004, when a magnitude-9.1 quake in a subduction zone near Sumatra triggered a devastating tsunami. They found earthquakes during this period were nearly 10 times more frequent compared with the previous eight years. What's more, 26 of the quakes that happened between December 2004 and April 2011 were similar to the 11 April quakes in that they involved rocks being pushed and pulled in the same directions. Taken together, the events suggest that the Indo-Australian plate is breaking up along a new plate boundary, say the researchers, and that may account for both the location and the size of April's quakes (Nature, DOI: 10.1038/nature11520). Although both are currently on the same plate, Australia is moving faster than India. This is causing a broad area in the centre of the Indo-Australian plate to buckle. As a result, the plate may be splitting (see map)....read more...

 

   

 

                   

MEGATYPHOON Jelawat DECREASING SINCE SEP- 18

         

20120930

report by:

heraldsun.com

 

 

Typhoon lashes southern Japan

A POWERFUL typhoon is heading to Tokyo after injuring dozens of people, causing blackouts and paralysing traffic in southern Japan.Japan's Meteorological Agency says Typhoon Jelawat is expected to hit the Tokyo region on Sunday evening. It warns of torrential rain and sudden wind gusts, urging Tokyo residents to stay indoors. At noon (1300 AEST) on Sunday, the storm was packing winds of up to 144 kilometres an hour. ...read more...

 

                                 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`S CME IMPACT MAP (internal)

SDO REAL TIME

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2 - SOLAR

 

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

95

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

279-392

FLARES

C

15

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

135

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 5.7

 

M

01

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

14

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

 

 

X

 

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

OVERALL SOLAR ACTIVITY >> :

INCREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20120913

  < LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

 

20120815

20120902

 

         

 

 

 

 

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

 

11575

73° - 87° W

07° N

beta

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

 

11576

faded  

beta

Sep- 25

        UNNUMBERED TRANSEQU. GROWING SEP- 29- 2012 SEP- 30 inactive  
 

11577

55° - 69° W

08° N

 

Sep- 26

                     
 

11578

17° - 31° W

20° N

   

 

 

 

 

LAST- NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (N-P - CH- EXT)

SEP- 26-

not geoeffective

 

 

11579

07° E- 07° W

10° S

  SEP- 30      

 

LAST- SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT)

SEP- 19

 

 

 

11580

17°- 03° E

16° N

   

 

 

 

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

NONE

 

 

 

11581

43° - 57° W

20° N

 

 

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

 

11582

29° -15° E

12° S

 

OCT- 02

 

 

 

 

FILAMENTS >

 

 

NEWLY EMERGED

11583

77°- 91° W

12° N

 

        *POSITION= Centered at    
REMARKS> solar nuclear ( x-ray background activity) was increasing almost to C level on Sep 29        
      abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class. alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**

 

 

 

 

red letters = currently most active region

*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson)

 

SOLAR/ INTERPLANETARY:

20120930- NEW INCREASE PROTON FLUX

 

                    GOES/ELECTRON FLUX: GOES 13 / PROTON FLUX:  

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA

         

 

 

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

2012

NOAA/ RSGA

 

 

SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours with Region 1583 (N12W88) producing an isolated M1 solar x-ray event at 0433Z. Region 1583 had grown rapidly in the past 24 hours, however it is only hours away from rotating off the solar disk and out of view. The remaining active regions on the disk remained stable, producing a few low level C-class events. New Region 1584 (S23E28) was numbered early in the period, and at the time of this report, had only produced one low level C-class event. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours.

 

 

 

 

CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)

       

 

 

(date)

CMEs at:

 

ARRIVAL:

(estimated): SEP 29- 30

POLARITY: UNKNOWN BETA ALPHA (PROTONS)    

TRACKING NR.:

 

      20120930/ 07:10 UTC    

GOES/ X-RAY FLUX: (Solar nuclear activity)

 

ACTIVE REGIONS

---   no image yet    

 

 

---  

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

 

08° N

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

     
TYPE II and IV RADIO EMISSIONS

(1) STEREO-AHEAD

(2) STEREO- BEHIND

(3) SoHO- LASCO C3

(4) SDO /AIA-comp.

  (5) SDO /AIA-comp.

 

Abbreviations >

LDE=

Long Duration Event

 

 

 

 

 

 

try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

internal remarks

                       

2012

alien-homepage.de

 

image (4) prominence or CME eruption during LDE flare in AR 11577 beginning after 2:30 UTC on Sep- 30- 2012. SoHO shows no significant CME afterwards. The eruption or prominence was visible on SDO after 07:00 UTC

 
                             

TODAY`S CME ARRIVALS:

 

CME TRACKING >

 

SAT DATA (nanoTesla)

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

 

STRENGTH:    

TRACKING NR. >>

77/ 12

SOLAR EVENT DATA

CME EVENT

APPROACHING >

ACE

GOES

 

UTC

UTC   CME ARRIVAL DATA (EARTH)  

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT. SOLAR EVENT

ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ARRIVAL PEAK VALUE  

> 100 nT

MAIN POLARITY: REL. MASS VALUE* MAIN IMPACT REGIONS  

SEP- 30-2012

11577

27° - 41° W

08° N

C 3.7(+) PROTON FLARE

Sep- 27

23:52

after 4:00 UTC

145 nT

 

11- 17:30 UTC

13:00 UTC

ALPHA 140 EASTERN ATLANTIC, SOUTH AMERICA  
    REMARKS: GEOMAGNETIC STORM  

long/lat:

long/lat:

PROTONS

*internal

SECONDARY IMPACT REGIONS  
 

 

 

     

15° E- 90° W

15 ° W

 

EAST EUROPE, CENTR: AMERICA  

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

SEP- 30- 2012: CME CORE IMPACT? The arrival of the proton CME on Sep 27arrived on Sep 30- after 4:00 UTC. triggered a stronger geomagnetic storming as expected. The impact took very long, likely because ethe CME came under the influence of the currently low average solar wind speed. Electrons were dominant uring the first impact phase, followed by a sudden goemagnetic depression caused by the positively charge of the main CME core. The source of the electrons may have been the electrons from the last proton CME arriving on Sep 03, pushed further or reacting with the new CMEhead or core. Proton CMEs/ storms change the geomagnetic field towards the positively side and- as observed during previous rare proton events. Its a natural law that matter always will return to a neutral state and protons never really loose their electron counterparts/ energy eqivalents . . Relativity calls that " equivalence of mass and energy" The delayed electrons of theproton CME therefore clue on the geomagnet field by that for a longer while after that they begin to migrate into the geomagnetic field and atmosphere.

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES( CME):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NASA/ ACE: CME and SOLAR WIND/Analysis system>

ACE/ EPAM: ELECTRONS

ACE/SIS: PROTONS

RU/ MOSCOW: NEUTRONS

 

NASA/ISWA/animation of interplanetary CME evolution a.m.o.

 

NASA ARCHIVES>

NASA/ NOAA- PROTON FLUX/ arch

GOES/ 3 days X-RAY FLUX

GOES/ ELECTRONS

GOEShp ( MAG)

 

VARIOUS>

 

 

 

Magn complexity/ particle acceleration

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED EVENT >>

CME ARRIVAL 20120930

int. CME Nr. >>

77/ 12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT: LARGER EVENTS ARE LIKELY WITH LATENCIES

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

30°- 90° W

MEDIUM

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

(THUNDER-) STORMS

WESTERN EUROPE

< VOLCANISM/ QUAKES >

N- AMERICA >< EURASIA

 

CME ARRIVAL

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

EASTERN ATLANTIC

< GEOGRAPHIC >

W- EUROPE >< AFRICA

 

 

30 SEPTEMBER - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

ICELAND/ CANARIES

These forcasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

AMER. >< CARIBBEAN

 

M 5.5- >7.5

CME-ARRIVAL

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

SOUTH AMERICA

S-AMERICA >< NASCA

 

01- OCTOBER - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS?

SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5- 6.0 ( POTENTIAL= >7.5)

LATENCY/ PRELIMINARY

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

20° E - 90° W

CENTR AM>< COCOS

 

02- OCTOBER - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

CNTR. EUROPE >>

EASTERN EUROPE

 

M 5.5- 6.0 ( POTENTIAL= >7.5)

LATENCY/ PRELIMINARY

 

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME

CENTR AMERICA

*REGIONS> see definition below

AMERICAS >< PACIFIC

 

 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES*          

 

*BY TECTONICS COOLING DOWN          

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/GEO.magnetometer

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES> PROTON INFLUENCE EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS > PARADOX EFFECTS /LATENCIES

 

 

QUIET

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. The enhanced activity was due to the arrival of a CME from 27 September. At around 1100Z, measurements from the ACE spacecraft, indicated the arrival of this CME. At 1138Z, a sudden impulse of 15 nT was measured by the Boulder magnetometer, as the CME reached Earth. Solar wind velocities increased very little with this initial phase of the CME, increasing from around 280 - 320 km/s. The total IMF increased as the CME arrived, with sustained periods of negative Bz. However, with the lower than expected solar wind speeds, very little geomagnetic effects have been observed.

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REPORTS /LINKS

 

MINOR STORM (CME ARRIVAL)

 

ELECTRON STORM

   

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

MAJOR STORM  

S. RADIATION STORM

DIMIN.

DECREASING

   

 

  / PROTON STORM      
internal remarks:

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE

NONE

 

 

G 2 geomagnetic storm expected with today`s Proton CME arrival.   RADIO BLACKOUTS NONE

NONE

   

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

PREDICTED

NONE

 

GEOMAG.: . EFFECTIVE HIGHTENED ELECTRONS AFT

ER PROTON IMPACT ( Aug- 03) - minor CME impact and CH HSS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LATENCY EFFECTS

    GEOMAGNETIC STORM PROTONS CH HSS STREAMS MULTIPLE CMEs (CLUSTERS)   FIRST IMPACT LAST IMPACT LATENCY: ELECTRON LATENCY: * EFFECT DURATION (estimated)

 

(this section refers to parameters known to influence CMEs . paradox proton effects , CH a.o.)

 

 

 

 

SEP- 30

single CME

PROTONS OCT- 04?

OCT- 20?

 

3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT

 

EXPLANATIONS>

Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.

Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./

Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME or CME cluster/

 

HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST>

INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions!

STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS

The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER a LATENCY period due to CME IMPACT on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES within the RED until the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Read "latency remarks"

 

REGIONS

REGION "A"

REGION "B"

REGION "C"

REGION" D"

REGION "E"

REGION "F"

 

 

REGIONS COVERED BY LATEST CME IMPACT>

EASTERN EURASIA- CHINA- INDONESIA- PHILIPPINES--AUSTRALIA WEST ALASKA - KAMCHATKA- JAPAN/EAST- AUSTRALIA/ (EAST), PNG. NZL WESTERN USA+ WEST COAST- EASTERN PACIFIC- CANADA-ALASKA

EASTERN ATLANTIC/ CENTRAL AMERICA/ CENTRAL USA/ CENTRAL AND WEST PARTS OF SOUTH AMERICA

CENTRAL (WEST) EUROPE/ AFRICA, EAST ATLANTIC. CANARIES - EASTERN SOUTH AMERICA

INDIA & INDIAN OCEAN- AFRICA (EAST), ARABIA ASIA MINOR

RELATED CME EVENT: 20120927

 

RELATED TECTONIC BOUNDARIES>

PACIFIC< EURASIA>< INDO-AUSTRALIA

NORTH AMERICA (W) >< EURASIA (E) ><PACIFIC (E)

NORTH AMERICA/ incl. Microplates ><PACIFIC

AFRICA >< CARRIBEAN >< SOUTH AMERIA >< NASCA>< COCOS

EURASIA <> N-AMERICA/WESTCARRIBEAN ><AFRICA

EURASIA><ARABIA ><INDO-AUSTRALIA

CME ARRIVAL:

 

UTC TIME ZONES >

..

.......

...

...

......

..

20120930

 

LONGITUDES>

120° E- 90° E

135° E- 180° - 135° W

90° W- 135° W

45° W- 90° W

45° W - 00° W- 45° E

45° E- 90° E

Nr.: 77/12

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

SEPTEMBER

 

DAY:

29

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

MAP:

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.5 - GUERRERO, MEXICO - 2012-09-29 07:11:17 UTC

 

EMSC

 

EXPERIMENTAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST (internal- and without warranty) ) : September 29: The new solar proton event on Sep 27 has caused- what I call- a new" geomagnetic depression"- reducing the geomagnetic field density- This new earthbound proton storm beginning after the CME on Sep 27 immidiately (and fortunately) neutralised again the beginning Earthquake activities in the latest cooling region ( that one that was most affected by the last proton CME- which was was the transamerican plate to the boundary of the Pacific one) as well at it likely was responsible for the sudden decrease of all current hurricane activities see above) . This temporary effect has likely saved some region against major catastrophies for now . Nevertheless: the potential energy is still there and began to resume while proton flux was highest soon after the event but decreasing since then. . The electron load (indicating the potential energy for Earthquakes and other seismic activities) is still 40- 50 % above normal and began to recover while proton flux decreased after the event on Sep 27. A new latency period will set in with the arrival of the new proton CME expected on Sep 30 ( and later likely charge the geomagnetic field even higher with its delayed electrons) THIS FINALLY WILL SUM UP TO AN REAL HIGH POTENTIAL FOR EARTHQUAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THIS YEAR OR LATER!!!

WARNING! NEW PROTON EVENTS- THE INVISIBLE DANGER!!!

Proton event are, what the sun obviously produces now more and more in the few month left towards its 11 years activity peak and are the largest and strongest activities ( each single of this rare proton eruptions seems even to exhaust the Sun for a good while!!) , allthough they would remain invisible on images and instruments if they would not be accomponied by at least some " free electrons" ( they don`t swallwe and neutralise) those usually create the spectaculous images of firy solar outbursts as usually/ commonly known and received ! IN FACT THESE PROTONS ARE ABSOLUTELY INVISIBLE ON SAT IMAGES AND CAN ONLY BE MEASURED BY CERTAIN INSTRUMENTS SUCH AS AVAILABLE ON GOES 13. THe CME on Sep 27 was the first earth directed CME after one month , while the sun seemed to be rather quiet , but values as measured with instruments only sensible for electrons might AGAIN DECEIVE US . RESP:DO NOT REFER to ITS REAL STRENGTH . I have closely observed the three major proton events those took place this since July 2012 and their evolutions and coincident effectsand lso NASA refers tio their PARADOX effects, those only stand at the beginning . Esp. those protons events- as those couldfirst time ever real be observed during this largest solar observations project ever- have changed the common believe that all CMEs are rejected by the geomagnetic field. Proton events fully impact( with the potential energy of xx hydrogen bombs) into the geomagnetic field ( as the geomag field is usually negatively charged by its electrons and opposite charges- protons and electrons- attrack each other) , where their particles and energy remains effective for month and must be regarded as the potential largest danger that might hit the Earth resp our world from the Sun!. Nevertheless, proton CMEs must have happened already millions times during solar and Earth history and- as everyone can see: the earth is still here and its nature survived that all!. Its therefor 99% unlikely that it would be serioulsy destroyed this time even if ther largest proton event would occure ! No world surrende, but maybe larger distruction- lets say: GEOLOGICAL CHANGES MUST BE EXPECTED ( and some are going on already) !! Nothing else also stands in any prophecies such as refered by Maya, Hopi orby the bible`s revelation.

Its also difficult to predict such an rather invisible danger ( the only way to observe the evolution of such a proton impact I know is the geomagnetic field density as provided by GOES satellites) .I try to... but just could hardly say when about it would be over . The problem is what I call " latency" which is just another expression for the long time the earth as a whole can s tore the energies form such a single proton event .But the risk for late Earthquakes with high magnitudes above M 8.0 including the risk for larger and CATASTROPHIC tsunamis musttherefore in general be regarded TO REMAIN IMMINENT UNTIL THE END OF THIS YEAR!

 

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

 

 

 

 

 

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

EVENTS WITH PARTICULAR QUAKESHIGHER THAN M 2 AND EXCEEDING M 3.0:

EMSC

 

SICILY, ITALY- NEAR ETNA VOLCANO

SEPTEMBER 29- 2012 MAP

02

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.5 - SICILY, ITALY - 2012-09-29 00:39:44 UTC  

OAXACA, MEXICO

FREQUENT

MAP

 

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.2/ 2012/09/29 11:54:00  

VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION

SEPTEMBER 16- 2012

MAP

13

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.2/ 2012/09/29 18:41:42   

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

JULY 2012

MAP

05

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.6 - DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE - 2012-09-29 05:25:42 UTC  

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012

MAP

02

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.1/ 2012/09/29 23:13:31  

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

 

OTHER QUAKE SWARMS WITH MAGNITUDES > M 2.0 < M 3.0

EMSC

 

WESTERN TURKEY

PERMANENT( higher since 2011) WESTERN TURKEY

15

     

CANARY ISLANDS REGION / MAINLY NEAR EL HIERRO

SINCE JUNE- 2011 CANARIES/ EL HIERRO

00

 

NORTHERN ITALY

SINCE MAR 2012 NORTHERN ITALY

02

 

EASTERN TURKEY- near VAN:

PERMANENT( higher since 2011)

EASTERN TURKEY-

10

 
           

* at time of this update!

Rapid Earthquake viewer last CME impact map

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

no tropical storm reported so far

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground.com Tropical Storm Nadine

SEP- 19- 2012

ATLANTIC

75 MPH (+)

35.5° W  31. 

31.0° N

APPR. 600 KM SOUTHWEST OF AZORES NNW reemerged on Sep-19  
wunderground.com Tropical Depression Norman

SEP- 26- 2012

EASTERN PACIFIC

35 MPH (-)

109.0° W 

25.2° N

NEAR LOS MOCHIS/ MEXICO/ GULF OF CALIFORNIA NNW    
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Jelawat

SEP- 20- 2012

WESTERN PACIFIC

115 MPH (-)

127.4° W  

26.1° N

NEAR OKINAWA ISLAND / JAPAN NE    
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Ewiniar

SEP- 19- 2012

WESTERN PACIFIC

50 MPH ()

146.4° E  

34.5° N

APPR .280 KM SE OF FUKUSHIMA/ JAPAN NE    
(+) = storm speed was INCREASING (-) = storm speed was DECREASING = media report available (click on this symbol)    
                                 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  SDO REAL TIME

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2 - SOLAR

 

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

70

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

287-327

FLARES

C

11

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

136

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 5.6

 

M

 

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

04

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

80- 115 nT

under proton influence

X

 

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

OVERALL SOLAR ACTIVITY >> :

INCREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20120913

  < LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

 

20120815

20120902

 

         

 

 

 

 

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

 

11575

60° - 74° W

07° N

beta

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

 

11576

43° - 57° W

22° S

beta

Sep- 25

                     
 

11577

41° - 55° W

08° N

 

Sep- 26

                     
 

11578

17° - 31° W

20° N

   

 

 

 

 

LAST- NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (N-P - CH- EXT)

SEP- 26-

 

 

 

11579

19°- 05° E

10° S

         

 

LAST- SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT)

SEP- 19

 

 

 

11580

31°- 17° E

16° N

   

 

 

 

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

NONE

 

 

 

11581

43° - 57° W

20° N

 

 

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

 

11582

43° -29° E

12° S

 

 

 

 

 

 

FILAMENTS >

 

 

         

 

        *POSITION= Centered at    
REMARKS>          
      ( ex.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class. alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**

 

 

 

 

red letters = currently most active region

*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson)

 

SOLAR/ INTERPLANETARY:

20120928- NEW INCREASE PROTON FLUX

 

                    OVERLAYE: PROTON EFFECTS ON GEOMAG GOESPROTON FLUX:  

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA

         

 

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

2012

NOAA/ RSGA

 

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Numerous weak C-class events were observed during the past 24 hours, mostly from Regions 1575 (N07W73) and 1577 (N09W54). New Region 1583 (N13W75) emerged on the disk as a simple bipolar group. No significant changes were observed from the remainder of the disk and limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

 

 

 

 

CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)

       

 

 

(date)

CMEs at:

 

ARRIVAL:

(estimated): SEP 29- 30

POLARITY: UNKNOWN BETA ALPHA (PROTONS)    

TRACKING NR.:

 

           

GOES/ X-RAY FLUX: (Solar nuclear activity)

 

ACTIVE REGIONS

---          

 

 

---  

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

 

08° N

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

     
TYPE II and IV RADIO EMISSIONS

(1) STEREO-AHEAD

(2) STEREO- BEHIND

(3) SoHO- LASCO C3

(4) SDO /AIA-comp.

  (5) SDO /AIA-comp.

 

Abbreviations >

LDE=

Long Duration Event

 

 

 

 

 

 

try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

internal remarks

                       

2012

alien-homepage.de

 

 

 
                             

TODAY`S CME ARRIVALS:

 

CME TRACKING >

 

SAT DATA (nanoTesla)

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

 

STRENGTH:    

TRACKING NR. >>

 

SOLAR EVENT DATA

CME EVENT

APPROACHING >

ACE

GOES

 

UTC

UTC   CME ARRIVAL DATA (EARTH)  

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT. SOLAR EVENT

ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ARRIVAL PEAK VALUE  

> 100 nT

MAIN POLARITY: REL. MASS VALUE MAIN IMPACT REGIONS  
                               
    REMARKS:    

long/lat:

long/lat:

ALPHA

*internal

SECONDARY IMPACT REGIONS  
 

 

 

         

 

   

LAST CME ARRIVALS:

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

DATE OF LAST CME ARRIVAL >

20120912

NUMBER > 76/ 12

prominence eruption during LDE flare STRENGTH > > 155 nT

CURRENTLY ACTIVE CMEs: >>

CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs

01

ACTIVE>

01

 

REMARKS>

PROTON CME : STRONGER EFFECTS EXPERCTABLE, WHEN ELECTRON WILL BECOME DOMINANT

MULTIPLE CME (CLUSTERS)

NONE >> ERUPTION DAY >

20120927/ 17:20

20120927/ 23:42

     

 

 

CMEs BY TRACKING NRS.>

not numbered

77/ 12

   

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

C4 flare in AR 11579

PROTONS

   

 

 

ESTIMATED ARRIVALS

SEP 09- 10

SEP 09- 10

   

 

ARRIVED ON:    

EXTERNAL SOURCES( CME):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NASA/ ACE: CME and SOLAR WIND/Analysis system>

ACE/ EPAM: ELECTRONS

ACE/SIS: PROTONS

RU/ MOSCOW: NEUTRONS

 

NASA/ISWA/animation of interplanetary CME evolution a.m.o.

 

NASA ARCHIVES>

NASA/ NOAA- PROTON FLUX/ arch

GOES/ 3 days X-RAY FLUX

GOES/ ELECTRONS

GOEShp ( MAG)

 

VARIOUS>

 

 

 

Magn complexity/ particle acceleration

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED EVENT >>

CME ARRIVAL 20120912

int. CME Nr. >>

76/ 12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT: LARGER EVENTS ARE LIKELY WITH LATENCIES

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

30°- 90° W

STRONG

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

(THUNDER-) STORMS

CENTRAL AMERICA& CALIFORNIA

< VOLCANISM/ QUAKES >

N- AMERICA >< EURASIA

 

 

 

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

SOUTH AMERICA WEST

< GEOGRAPHIC >

N/AMERICA ><J. DE FUCA

 

 

29 SEPTEMBER - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

WEST ATLANTIC

These forcasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

COCOS >< PACIFIC

 

M 5.5- >7.5

2-3

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

AMERICAS PACIFIC COAST

S-AMERICA >< NASCA

 

30 SEPTEMBER - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS?

SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5- >7.5

CME-ARRIVAL

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

55° E - 150° E

EURASIA ><AFRICA

 

01- OCTOBER - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

CNTR. EUROPE >>

EURASIA >< INDO - AUS

 

M 5.5- 6.0 ( POTENTIAL= >7.5)

LATENCY/ PRELIMINARY

 

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME

INDIA

*REGIONS> see definition below

AMERICAS >< PACIFIC

 

 

 

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/GEO.magnetometer

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES> PROTON INFLUENCE EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS > PARADOX EFFECTS /LATENCIES

 

 

QUIET

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. ACE satellite measurements indicated a steady decline in wind speed from about 325 km/s to near 275 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 3 nT. At about 29/0100Z, a solar sector boundary crossing from a negative (toward) to a positive (away) orientation was observed.

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REPORTS /LINKS

 

MINOR STORM (CME ARRIVAL)

 

ELECTRON STORM

   

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

   

S. RADIATION STORM

S1

S1

 
MAJOR STORM   / PROTON STORM      

 

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE

NONE

 

 

internal remarks:  

 

S. RADIATION STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 

      RADIO BLACKOUTS NONE

NONE

   
 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 

GEOMAG.: . EFFECTIVE HIGHTENED ELECTRONS AFTER PROTON IMPACT ( Aug- 03) - minor CME impact and CH HSS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LATENCY EFFECTS

    GEOMAGNETIC STORM PROTONS CH HSS STREAMS MULTIPLE CMEs (CLUSTERS)   FIRST IMPACT LAST IMPACT LATENCY: ESTIMATED LATENCY: * REAL LATENCY ( first EQ > M 6.0)

 

(this section refers to parameters known to influence CMEs . paradox proton effects , CH a.o.)

 

 

 

 

SEP- 03

SEP 05

PROTONS SEP- 31?

SEP- 10- 2012

 

3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT

 

EXPLANATIONS>

Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.

Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./

Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME or CME cluster/

 

HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST>

INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions!

STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS

The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER a LATENCY period due to CME IMPACT on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES within the RED until the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Read "latency remarks"

 

REGIONS

REGION "A"

REGION "B"

REGION "C"

REGION" D"

REGION "E"

REGION "F"

 

 

REGIONS COVERED BY LATEST CME IMPACT>

EASTERN EURASIA- CHINA- INDONESIA- PHILIPPINES--AUSTRALIA WEST ALASKA - KAMCHATKA- JAPAN/EAST- AUSTRALIA/ (EAST), PNG. NZL WESTERN USA+ WEST COAST- EASTERN PACIFIC- CANADA-ALA

EASTERN ATLANTIC/ CENTRAL AMERICA/ CENTRAL USA/ CENTRAL AND WEST PARTS OF SOUTH AMERICA

CENTRAL (WEST) EUROPE/ AFRICA, EAST ATLANTIC. CANARIES - EASTERN SOUTH AMERICA

INDIA & INDIAN OCEAN- AFRICA (EAST), ARABIA ASIA MINOR

RELATED CME EVENT: 20120910

 

RELATED TECTONIC BOUNDARIES>

PACIFIC< EURASIA>< INDO-AUSTRALIA

NORTH AMERICA (W) >< EURASIA (E) ><PACIFIC (E)

NORTH AMERICA/ incl. Microplates ><PACIFIC

AFRICA >< CARRIBEAN >< SOUTH AMERIA >< NASCA>< COCOS

EURASIA <> N-AMERICA/WESTCARRIBEAN ><AFRICA

EURASIA><ARABIA ><INDO-AUSTRALIA

CME ARRIVAL:

 

UTC TIME ZONES >

..

.......

...

...

......

..

20120912

 

LONGITUDES>

120° E- 90° E

135° E- 180° - 135° W

90° W- 135° W

45° W- 90° W

45° W - 00° W- 45° E

45° E- 90° E

Nr.: 76/12

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

SEPTEMBER

 

DAY:

28

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

MAP:

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.2 - SOLOMON ISLANDS - 2012-09-28 23:22:31 UTC

 

EMSC

 

 

 

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

 

 

 

 

 

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

EVENTS WITH PARTICULAR QUAKESHIGHER THAN M 2 AND EXCEEDING M 3.0:

EMSC

 

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012

MAP

07

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.6/ 2012/09/28 15:24:54   

PUERTO RICO REGION (USGS) (PREQUAKE WARNING?!)

SEPTEMBER 16- 2012

PUERTO RICO REGION

03

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.5/ 2012/09/28 16:17:13  

VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION

SEPTEMBER 16- 2012

MAP

04

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.4/ 2012/09/28 18:50:27   

PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION

AUG- 28- 2012

PHILIPPINE ISL. REGION

01

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.9 - MINDORO, PHILIPPINES - 2012-09-28 14:25:47 UTC  

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

JULY 2012

DODOCANESE ISLAND R.

06

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.6 - DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE - 2012-09-28 20:14:41 UTC  

WESTERN TURKEY

PERMANENT( higher since 2011) WESTERN TURKEY

21

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.0 - WESTERN TURKEY - 2012-09-28 16:23:43 UTC  

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

 

OTHER QUAKE SWARMS WITH MAGNITUDES > M 2.0 < M 3.0

EMSC

 

NEW : CENTRAL TURKEY (PREQUAKE WARNING?)

SEPTEMBER 16- 2012

CENTRAL TURKEY/

12

     

SICIL / ITALY

SEPTEMBER 09- 2012

SICIL / ITALY

03

 

CANARY ISLANDS REGION / MAINLY NEAR EL HIERRO

SINCE JUNE- 2011 CANARIES/ EL HIERRO

00

 

NORTHERN ITALY

SINCE MAR 2012 NORTHERN ITALY

02

 

EASTERN TURKEY- near VAN:

PERMANENT( higher since 2011)

EASTERN TURKEY-

 

 
           

* at time of this update!

^"Rapid Earthquake viewer ^last CME impact map

 

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

no tropical storm reported so far

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground.com Tropical Storm Nadine

SEP- 19- 2012

ATLANTIC

65 MPH (+)

33.6° W 

28.8° N

APPR. 650 KM S OF AZORES W reemerged on Sep-19  
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Miriam

SEP- 19- 2012

EASTERN PACIFIC

35 MPH (-)

116.7° W

22.0° N

APPR. 100 KM SOUTH OF GABO SAN LUCAS / GULF OF CALIFORNIA S    
wunderground.com Invest 94E

SEP- 26- 2012

EASTERN PACIFIC

40 MPH (+)

108.7° W 

21.3° N

APPR. 380 KMWEST OF GABO SAN LUCAS / GULF OF CALIFORNIA N    
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Jelawat

SEP- 20- 2012

WESTERN PACIFIC

130 MPH (-)

124.5° W  

23.4° N

APPR.180 KM EAST OF TAIWAN NNE    
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Ewiniar

SEP- 19- 2012

WESTERN PACIFIC

50 MPH (-)

143.1° E

32.0° N

APPR .250 KM SW OF YOKAHAMA/ JAPAN ENE    
(+) = storm speed was INCREASING (-) = storm speed was DECREASING = media report available (click on this symbol)    

 

                   

NASA/ CURIOSITY ROVER: New evidence for previous rivers/ life on Mars!

       

20120927

report by: mars.jpl.nasa

 

Remnants of Ancient Streambed on Mars (Closeup)

 

 

Link to a Watery Past

In this image(s) from NASA's Curiosity rover, a rock outcrop called Link pops out from a Martian surface that is elsewhere blanketed by reddish-brown dust. The fractured Link outcrop has blocks of exposed, clean surfaces. Rounded gravel fragments, or clasts, up to a couple inches (few centimeters) in size are in a matrix of white material. Many gravel-sized rocks have eroded out of the outcrop onto the surface, particularly in the left portion of the frame. The outcrop characteristics are consistent with a sedimentary conglomerate, or a rock that was formed by the deposition of water and is composed of many smaller rounded rocks cemented together. Water transport is the only process capable of producing the rounded shape of clasts of this size. The Link outcrop was imaged with the 100-millimeter Mast Camera on Sept. 2, 2012, which was the 27th sol, or Martian day of operations. ..find more at nasa.com

 

 

                   
             

20120929

report by:

bbc.co.uk

 

Spain floods: Six die in Malaga, Murcia and Andalucia

At least six people have died after heavy rains triggered flash floods in southern Spain, officials have said. Among the victims were an elderly woman and a young girl. The strength of the floods overturned cars, closed roads, damaged homes and forced hundreds to leave their properties. The hardest hit areas were the provinces of Malaga and Almeria, and Murcia region. At least 600 people had to be evacuated from their homes in Andalucia region, which contains Malaga and Almeria, officials said. Spain's weather agency said that up to 245 litres (65 gallons) of water per square metre had fallen on Friday morning alone. An elderly woman died when a river broke its banks and floodwater hit her home in Alora, north of Malaga, AFP reports.h..read more...

 

                                 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  SDO REAL TIME

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2 - SOLAR

 

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

77

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

288-380

FLARES

C

02

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

137

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 3.8

 

M

 

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

01

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

80- 120 nT

under proton infuence

X

 

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

OVERALL SOLAR ACTIVITY >> :

INCREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20120913

  < LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

 

20120815

20120902

 

         

 

 

 

 

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

 

11575

45° - 59° W

07° N

beta

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

 

11576

32° - 46° W

22° S

beta

Sep- 25

                     
 

11577

27° - 41° W

08° N

 

Sep- 26

(Sep- 27) 23:52 ARIES SEP 09- 10                
 

11578

17° - 31° W

20° N

   

 

 

 

 

LAST- NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (N-P - CH- EXT)

SEP- 26-

 

 

 

11579

33°- 19° E

10° S

         

 

LAST- SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT)

SEP- 19

 

 

 

11580

43°- 29° E

16° N

   

 

 

 

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

LOW

 

 

 

11581

22° - 36° W

20° N

 

 

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

NEWLY EMERGED

11582

57° -43° E

12° S

 

 

 

 

 

 

FILAMENTS >

 

 

         

 

        *POSITION= Centered at    
REMARKS>          
      ( ex.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class. alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**

 

 

 

 

red letters = currently most active region

*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson)

 

SOLAR/ INTERPLANETARY:

20120928- NEW INCREASE PROTON FLUX

 

                    GOES/ELECTRON FLUX: GOESPROTON FLUX:  

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA

         

 

 

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

2012

NOAA/ RSGA

 

 

SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Sep 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1577 (N08W41) produced a long duration C3/1f flare at 27/2357Z. The event began with a filament eruption located northwest of and adjacent to the region with a subsequent dual ribbon flare. Associated with this event was an Earth-directed, asymmetric, full-halo CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 imagery at 28/0018Z and 28/0030Z, respectively. The plane-of-sky speed through both fields averaged 1034 km/s with a computed radial velocity of 872 km/s. Little change was observed for the remainder of the disk and limb. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

 

 

 

 

CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)

       

 

 

(date)

CMEs at:

23:23 UTC

ARRIVAL:

(estimated): SEP 29- 30

POLARITY: UNKNOWN BETA ALPHA (PROTONS)    

TRACKING NR.:

77/123

20120928/ 03:09 UTC   20120928/ 03:18 UTC 20120927/ 23:42 UTC    

GOES/ X-RAY FLUX: (Solar nuclear activity)

 

ACTIVE REGIONS

---    

 

11577/75

---  

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

27° - 41° W

08° N

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

PROTON ERUPTION/ FLARE C 04  
TYPE II and IV RADIO EMISSIONS

(1) STEREO-AHEAD

(2) STEREO- BEHIND

(3) SoHO- LASCO C3

(4) SDO /AIA-comp.

  (5) SDO /AIA-comp.

 

Abbreviations >

LDE=

Long Duration Event

 

 

 

 

 

 

try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

internal remarks

                       

2012

alien-homepage.de

 

(1) Sun plasma of a major PROTON CME expands towards the earth facing side of the sun after a C class flare in AR 11577 on September 27. Proton flux began to rise immidiately after the initial nuclear reactionat midnight that was measured as a C 4 event. e at Earlier images were ot available on STEREO. The event was the third larger PROTON event observed in 2012. By the paradox effects of the invisible protons ( those dont carry any light quantums) the initial explosion mostly appears and is measured weaker than it really is and again accelerated again protons to more than the half speed of light. Proton events are the strongest solar eruptions, as they ( by their positiv load) fully impact into the geomagnetic field. ( the geomag field can only reject and deflect negative particles if it is negatively charged ) This CME was fully halo on SoHO LASCO C3 ( 3) and is expected ( by the earth moving towards the West) to have e a FULL IMPACT ( perharps even a core impact!!) on Sept 29- 30. That impact might first trigger some larger Earthquakes and volcanic activities by its electron load , but GENERALLY have first PARADOX EFFECTS : examp#le: Such a proton CME may calm again entire storm systems down instead of producing one.... That "calmity prior to the storms" will persist until the late electrons will invade the geomag field about 3- 7 days days after the primary CME impact. This later electron invlasion will lead (as usual and observed after all rare Proton events) to ionisation effects in the upper atmosphere ( effects: strong thunderstorms) and also charge the earth interior with a high amount of energy for VOLCANISM AND LATER EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES: typical CME effects will take place.These effects again likely will persist for several weeks with rather low earthquake activities. Stronger earthquakes likely will follow AFTER WEEKS as the latest effects of such a RARE PROTON EVENT.

 
                             

EXTERNAL SOURCES( CME):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NASA/ ACE: CME and SOLAR WIND/Analysis system>

ACE/ EPAM: ELECTRONS

ACE/SIS: PROTONS

RU/ MOSCOW: NEUTRONS

 

NASA/ISWA/animation of interplanetary CME evolution a.m.o.

 

NASA ARCHIVES>

NASA/ NOAA- PROTON FLUX/ arch

GOES/ 3 days X-RAY FLUX

GOES/ ELECTRONS

GOEShp ( MAG)

 

VARIOUS>

 

 

 

Magn complexity/ particle acceleration

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED EVENT >>

CME ARRIVAL 20120912

int. CME Nr. >>

76/ 12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT: LARGER EVENTS ARE LIKELY WITH LATENCIES

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

30°- 90° W

STRONG

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

(THUNDER-) STORMS

CENTRAL AMERICA& CALIFORNIA

< VOLCANISM/ QUAKES >

N- AMERICA >< EURASIA

 

 

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

SOUTH AMERICA WEST

< GEOGRAPHIC >

N/AMERICA ><J. DE FUCA

 

 

28 SEPTEMBER - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

WEST ATLANTIC

These forcasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

COCOS >< PACIFIC

 

M 5.5- >7.5

2-3

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

AMERICAS PACIFIC COAST

S-AMERICA >< NASCA

 

29 SEPTEMBER - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS?

SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5- >7.5

2-3

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

55° E - 150° E

EURASIA ><AFRICA

 

30 SEPTEMBER - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

CNTR. EUROPE >>

EURASIA >< INDO - AUS

 

M 5.5- >7.5

CME-ARRIVAL

 

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME

INDIA

*REGIONS> see definition below

AMERICAS >< PACIFIC

 

 

 

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/GEO.magnetometer

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES> PROTON INFLUENCE EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

 

 


IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. ACE satellite measurements indicated a steady decline in wind velocity from about 400 km/s to near 325 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 2 nT. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit exceeded threshold at 28/0300Z, reached a maximum of 28 pfu at 28/0445Z and decayed below threshold at 28/1040Z. At the time of this report, flux levels were still elevated at about 5 pfu. This event was believed to be associated with the C3/1f flare observed late on 27 September.

 

EFFECTING AS > PARADOX EFFECTS /LATENCIES

 

 

QUIET

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REPORTS /LINKS

 

MINOR STORM (CME ARRIVAL)

 

ELECTRON STORM

   

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

   

S. RADIATION STORM

S1

NONE

 
MAJOR STORM   / PROTON STORM      

 

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE

NONE

 

 

internal remarks:

 

S. RADIATION STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 

    RADIO BLACKOUTS NONE

NONE

   

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 

GEOMAG.: . EFFECTIVE HIGHTENED ELECTRONS AFTER PROTON IMPACT ( Aug- 03) - minor CME impact and CH HSS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

SEPTEMBER

 

DAY:

27

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

MAP:

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 6.0 - SOLOMON ISLANDS - 2012-09-27 23:53:49 UTC

 

EMSC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EARTHQUAKES TODAY

REPORTS:

NAME of REGION

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME

MAGNITUDE

DEPTH

CATHEGORY

GOOGLE EARTH:

 

 

SOLOMON ISLANDS 8.82 S ; 157.49 E 2012-09-27 23:53:49 UTC M 6.0 10 km --

---

 

                 

EXPERIMENTAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST (internal) : SEP- 27: the long Earthquake latency period following the full Proton CME impacts on SEP 03- 05 is obviously over and plates began to cool down again.- A first stronger 6.9 Earthquake happened on Sep- 27 - as expected near the US-WEst coast ALEUTIAN ISL. MORE QUAKES MIGHT FOLLOW THE COMING DAY- - most likely in the regions of N & S AMERICAS WEST COAST, esp. CALIFORNIA and/ or CHILE. These quakes might exceed M 7.5! ( earthquake forecasts are without guarantee!)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

note: allthough CME impacts are regularly coincident at least with TEMPORARY volcano acticity increases, my time does not allow to introduce such

< stats

 

DETAILLED resp. "FINE TUNED"statistic reports as required to communicate this!. This section therefor can only refer to changes in "ALERT LEVELS" as published by GVP. Click on the buttons (right) to findat least more detailled internal reports >

maps >

 
volcano-discovery/gadget

note: this report does NOTnecessarely represent all currently global active volcanoes!

      2012 report by: GVP  

 

Smithsonian / USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report

19 September-25 September 2012

New Activity/Unrest: | Fuego, Guatemala | Little Sitkin, Aleutian Islands | Lokon-Empung, Sulawesi |Soputan, Sulawesi | Tangkubanparahu, Western Java (Indonesia) 
Ongoing Activity: | Batu Tara, Komba Island (Indonesia) | Galeras, Colombia | Karymsky, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) | Kilauea, Hawaii (USA) | Reventador, Ecuador | Sakura-jima, Kyushu | Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia) | Soufrière Hills, Montserrat

This page is updated on Wednesdays. Please see the GVP Home Page for news of the latest significant activity.

 

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

no tropical storm reported so far

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground.com Tropical Storm Nadine

SEP- 19- 2012

ATLANTIC

50 MPH (+)

31.4° W  

29.5° N

APPR. 650 KM S OF AZORES SW reemerged on Sep-19  
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Miriam

SEP- 19- 2012

EASTERN PACIFIC

45 MPH (-)

115.7° W 

21.5° N

APPR. 280 KM WEST OF GABO SAN LUCAS / GULF OF CA. NNW    
wunderground.com Invest 94E

SEP- 26- 2012

EASTERN PACIFIC

30 MPH (-)

106.2° W 

14.6° N

APPR. 400 KM SWW OF ACAPULCO/ MEXICO NW    
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Jelawat

SEP- 20- 2012

WESTERN PACIFIC

150 MPH (-)

124.7° W

19.7° N

APPR. 250 KM SOUTHEAST OF TAIWAN NW    
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Ewiniar

SEP- 19- 2012

WESTERN PACIFIC

65 MPH (+)

142.3° E  

30.3° N

APPR .220 KM SW OF YOKAHAMA/ JAPAN N    
(+) = storm speed was INCREASING (-) = storm speed was DECREASING = media report available (click on this symbol)    

NUCLEAR POWER

                   
             

20120926

report by:

thewatchers

 

Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant automatically shutdown for unknown reasons

The Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant, located in Monticello, Minnesota, along the Mississippi River, automatically shut down on Tuesday, September 25, 2012 for unknown reasons. The shutdown occurred at 11:07 a.m. local time and all plant safety systems were functioning, the utility said. The cause of the shutdown is still under investigation and officials said the current shutdown is not expected to last long. Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant owners and operators from Xcel Energy said that the shutdown posed no danger to the plant workers and the public....read more...

 

                                 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  SDO REAL TIME

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2 - SOLAR

 

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

97

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

360-441

FLARES

C

02

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

133

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 3.2

 

M

 

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

04

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

60- 105 nT

 

X

 

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

OVERALL SOLAR ACTIVITY >> :

INCREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20120913

  < LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

 

20120815

20120902

 

 

11573

71°- 85° W

17° N

Axx/alpha

 

 

 

 

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

 

11575

32° - 66° W

07° N

beta

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

 

11576

23° - 37° W

22° S

beta

Sep- 25

                     
 

11577

13° - 27° W

08° N

 

Sep- 26

                     
 

11578

17° - 31° W

20° N

   

 

 

 

 

LAST- NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (N-P - CH- EXT)

SEP- 26-

 

 

 

11579

47°- 33° E

10° S

         

 

LAST- SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT)

SEP- 19

 

 

 

11580

56°- 42° E

16° N

   

 

 

 

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

LOW

 

 

 

11581

07° - 21° W

20° N

 

 

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

NEWLY EMERGED

11582

70° -56° E

12° S

 

 

 

 

 

 

FILAMENTS >

 

 

         

 

        *POSITION= Centered at    
REMARKS>          
      ( ex.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class. alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**

 

 

 

 

red letters = currently most active region

*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson)

 

SOLAR/ INTERPLANETARY:

ELECTRON FLUX INCREASED ON SEP 06:

 

                    GOES/ELECTRON FLUX: GOESPROTON FLUX:  

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA

         

 

   

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

2012

NOAA/ RSGA

 

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar flare of the period was an C4/Sf at 1720Z from an unnumbered region around S18E39. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the visible disk, however most have remained rather stable and quiet. A non-Earth directed full halo CME was observed in both STEREO A-B and LASCO imagery early in the period.

 

 

 

 

CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)

       

 

 

(date)

CMEs at: none ARRIVAL: (estimated): POLARITY: UNKNOWN BETA ALPHA    

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED EVENT >>

CME ARRIVAL 20120912

int. CME Nr. >>

76/ 12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT: LARGER EVENTS ARE LIKELY WITH LATENCIES

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

30°- 90° W

STRONG

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

(THUNDER-) STORMS

CENTRAL AMERICA& CALIFORNIA

< VOLCANISM/ QUAKES >

N- AMERICA >< EURASIA

 

 

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

SOUTH AMERICA WEST

< GEOGRAPHIC >

N/AMERICA ><J. DE FUCA

 

 

26 SEPTEMBER - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

WEST ATLANTIC

These forcasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

COCOS >< PACIFIC

 

M 5.5- >7.5

2-3

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

AMERICAS PACIFIC COAST

S-AMERICA >< NASCA

 

27 SEPTEMBER - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS?

SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5- >7.5

2-3

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

55° E - 150° E

EURASIA ><AFRICA

 

28 SEPTEMBER - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

CNTR. EUROPE >>

EURASIA >< INDO - AUS

 

M 5.5- >7.5

preliminary

 

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME

INDIA

*REGIONS> see definition below

AMERICAS >< PACIFIC

 

 

 

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/GEO.magnetometer

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES> PROTON INFLUENCE EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS > PARADOX EFFECTS /LATENCIES

 

 

QUIET

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REPORTS /LINKS

 

MINOR STORM (CME ARRIVAL)

 

ELECTRON STORM

   

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

MAJOR STORM     PROTON S>TPRM        

 

 

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE

NONE

 

internal remarks:  

 

S. RADIATION STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 

      RADIO BLACKOUTS NONE

NONE

   
 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

 

GEOMAG.: . EFFECTIVE HIGHTENED ELECTRONS AFTER PROTON IMPACT ( Aug- 03) - minor CME impact and CH HSS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

SEPTEMBER

 

DAY:

26

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

MAP:

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 6.9 - ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS. - 2012-09-26 23:39:54 UTC

 

EMSC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EARTHQUAKES TODAY

REPORTS:

NAME of REGION

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME

MAGNITUDE

DEPTH

CATHEGORY

GOOGLE EARTH:

 

 

ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS 51.56 N ; 178.12 W 2012-09-26 23:39:54 UTC M 6.9 10 km  

---

 

                 
EXPERIMENTAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST (internal) : SEP- 27: the long Earthquake latency period following the full Proton CME impacts on SEP 03- 05 is obviously over and plates began to cool down again.- A first stronger 6.9 Earthquake happened on Sep- 27 - as expected near the US-WEst coast ALEUTIAN ISL. MORE QUAKES MIGHT FOLLOW THE COMING DAY- - most likely in the regions of N & S AMERICAS WEST COAST, esp. CALIFORNIA and/ or CHILE. These quakes might exceed M 7.5! ( earthquake forecasts are without guarantee!)

 

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

 

 

 

 

 

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

EVENTS WITH PARTICULAR QUAKESHIGHER THAN M 2 AND EXCEEDING M 3.0:

EMSC

 

ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS., ALASKA

SEP-27-2012 MAP

11

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 6.4/ 2012/09/26 23:39:55   

NEW : CENTRAL TURKEY (PREQUAKE WARNING?)

SEPTEMBER 16- 2012

CENTRAL TURKEY/

 

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE:    

PUERTO RICO REGION (USGS) (PREQUAKE WARNING?!)

SEPTEMBER 16- 2012

PUERTO RICO REGION

 

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE:    

VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION

SEPTEMBER 16- 2012

MAP

06

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.1/ 2012/09/26 08:54:15   

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012

MAP

09

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.8/ 2012/09/26 00:17:55   
           

* at time of this update!

^"Rapid Earthquake viewer ^last CME impact map

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

no tropical storm reported so far

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground.com Tropical Storm Nadine

SEP- 19- 2012

ATLANTIC

45 MPH ()

30.4° W  

31.2° N

APPR. 500 KM S OF AZORES SSW reemerged on Sep-19  
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Miriam

SEP- 19- 2012

EASTERN PACIFIC

80 MPH (-)

115.2° W 

19.1° N

APPR. 600 KM WEST OF MANZANILLO/ MEXICO NW    
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Jelawat

SEP- 20- 2012

WESTERN PACIFIC

155 MPH (-)

126.6° W

17.3° N

APPR. 200 KM EASTOF LUZON/ PHILIPPINES N    
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Ewiniar

SEP- 19- 2012

WESTERN PACIFIC

55 MPH (+)

141.3° E

25.4° N

APPR. 800 KM SWOF SOUTHERN JAPAN ENE    
(+) = storm speed was INCREASING (-) = storm speed was DECREASING = media report available (click on this symbol)    

NUCLEAR POWER

                   
             

20120926

report by:

thewatchers

 

Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant automatically shutdown for unknown reasons

The Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant, located in Monticello, Minnesota, along the Mississippi River, automatically shut down on Tuesday, September 25, 2012 for unknown reasons. The shutdown occurred at 11:07 a.m. local time and all plant safety systems were functioning, the utility said. The cause of the shutdown is still under investigation and officials said the current shutdown is not expected to last long. Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant owners and operators from Xcel Energy said that the shutdown posed no danger to the plant workers and the public....read more...

 

                                 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  SDO REAL TIME

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2 - SOLAR

 

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

113

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

332-423

FLARES

C

01

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

139

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 3.7

 

M

 

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

06

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

92- 130 nT

 

X

 

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

OVERALL SOLAR ACTIVITY >> :

INCREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20120913

  < LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

 

20120815

20120902

 

 

11573

55°- 67° W

17° N

Axx/alpha

 

 

 

 

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

 

11575

17° - 31° W

07° N

beta

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

 

11576

10° - 24° W

22° S

beta

Sep- 25

                     
 

11577

03° E- 11° W

08° N

 

Sep- 26

                     
 

11578

04° - 18° W

20° N

   

 

 

 

 

LAST- NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (N-P - CH- EXT)

SEP- 18-

closed/ SEP- 25

 

 

11579

60°- 46° E

10° S

         

 

LAST- SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT)

SEP- 19

 

 

NEWLY EMERGED

11580

69°- 55° E

16° N

   

 

 

 

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

NONE

 

 

NEWLY EMERGED

11581

05° E- 09° W

20° N

 

 

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

         

 

 

 

 

 

FILAMENTS >

 

 

         

 

        *POSITION= Centered at    
REMARKS>          
      ( ex.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class. alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**

 

 

 

 

red letters = currently most active region

*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson)

 

SOLAR/ INTERPLANETARY:

ELECTRON FLUX INCREASED ON SEP 06:

 

                    GOES/ELECTRON FLUX: GOESPROTON FLUX:  

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA

         

 

   

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

2012

NOAA/ RSGA

 

 

SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was low. New Region 1582 (S12E68) rotated onto the southeast limb and produced the only C-flare of the period; a long duration C1 at 26/1240Z. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

 

 

 

 

CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)

       

 

 

(date)

CMEs at: none ARRIVAL: (estimated): POLARITY: UNKNOWN BETA ALPHA    

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED EVENT >>

CME ARRIVAL 20120912

int. CME Nr. >>

76/ 12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT: LARGER EVENTS ARE LIKELY WITH LATENCIES

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

30°- 90° W

STRONG

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

(THUNDER-) STORMS

CENTRAL AMERICA& CALIF.

< VOLCANISM/ QUAKES >

N- AMERICA >< EURASIA

 

 

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

SOUTH AMERICA WEST

< GEOGRAPHIC >

N/AMERICA ><J. DE FUCA

 

26 SEPTEMBER - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

WEST ATLANTIC

These forcasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

COCOS >< PACIFIC

 

M 5.5- 6.0/ POTENTIAL= >7.5

2-3

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

 

S-AMERICA >< NASCA

 

27 SEPTEMBER - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS?

SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5- 6.0/ POTENTIAL= >7.5

(CONT. LONG LATENCY?)

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

55° E - 150° E

EURASIA ><AFRICA

 

28 SEPTEMBER - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

CNTR. EUROPE >>

EURASIA >< INDO - AUS

 

M 5.5- 6.0/ POTENTIAL= >7.5

preliminary

 

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME

INDIA

*REGIONS> see definition below

EASTERN PACIFIC

 

 

 

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/GEO.magnetometer

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES> PROTON INFLUENCE EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS > PARADOX EFFECTS /LATENCIES

 

 

QUIET

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed, measured at the ACE spacecraft, increased from approximately 320 km/s to 450 km/s while the total magnetic field increased from 5 nT to 9 nT.

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REPORTS /LINKS

 

MINOR STORM (CME ARRIVAL)

 

ELECTRON STORM

   

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

MAJOR STORM   PROTON S>TPRM        

 

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE

NONE

 

internal remarks:  

 

S. RADIATION STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 

      RADIO BLACKOUTS NONE

NONE

   
 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

 

GEOMAG.: . HIGHTENED ELECTRONS AFTER PROTON IMPACT ( Aug- 03) AGAIN EFFECTIVE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

SEPTEMBER

 

DAY:

25

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

MAP:

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 6.3 - GULF OF CALIFORNIA - 2012-09-25 23:45:25 UTC

 

EMSC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EARTHQUAKES TODAY

REPORTS:

NAME of REGION

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME

MAGNITUDE

DEPTH

CATHEGORY

GOOGLE EARTH:

 

 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA

24.67 N ; 110.18 W

2012-09-25 23:45:25 UTC M 6.3    

---

 

                 
 

 

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

 

 

 

 

 

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

EVENTS WITH PARTICULAR QUAKESHIGHER THAN M 2 AND EXCEEDING M 3.0:

EMSC

 

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012

SAN ANDREAS FAULT

11

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.2 - BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO- 2012-09- 25 15:07:00 UTC  

VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION

SEPTEMBER 16- 2012

VIRGIN ISLANDS

19

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M3.3 - VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION- 2012 09 25 05:17:40 UTC  

REGION COSTA RICA / EL SALVADOR (Source: INETER)

SEP- 05- 2012

COSTA RICA   HIGHEST MAGNITUDE:    

PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION

AUG- 28- 2012

PHILIPPINE ISL. REGION

02

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.9 - MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES - 2012-09-25 10:41:27 UTC  

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

  OTHER QUAKE SWARMS WITH MAGNITUDES > M 2.0 < M 3.0

EMSC

 

NEW : CENTRAL TURKEY

SEPTEMBER 16- 2012

CENTRAL TURKEY/

07

     

WESTERN TURKEY

PERMANENT( higher since 2011) WESTERN TURKEY

08

 

CANARY ISLANDS REGION / MAINLY NEAR EL HIERRO

SINCE JUNE- 2011 CANARIES/ EL HIERRO

00

 

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

JULY 2012

DODOCANESE ISLAND R.

07

 

NORTHERN ITALY

SINCE MAR 2012 NORTHERN ITALY

00

 

EASTERN TURKEY- near VAN:

PERMANENT( higher since 2011)

EASTERN TURKEY-

02

 
           

* at time of this update!

^"Rapid Earthquake viewer ^last CME impact map

 

MEDIA REPORTS:                  

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

note: allthough CME impacts are regularly coincident at least with TEMPORARY volcano acticity increases, my time does not allow to introduce such

< stats

 

DETAILLED resp. "FINE TUNED"statistic reports as required to communicate this!. This section therefor can only refer to changes in "ALERT LEVELS" as published by GVP. Click on the buttons (right) to findat least more detailled internal reports >

maps >

 
REGION:
NAME/USGS datalink:
GEOGRAPHIC POSITION: LAT. / LONG.
VOLCANO NUMBER
VOLCANO TYPE
WEBCAM DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL MAP: LOCAL SURVEY

 

COLOMBIA GALERAS 1°13'0"N/ 77°22'0"W 0501- 08= Complex volcano Hi* GALERAS

SEP- 25- 2012

 

Centram

INGEOMINAS

 

Wikipedia:

                   
           

20120925

report by:

GVP

 

INGEOMINAS reported that during 18-22 and 24-25 September cameras around Galeras recorded emissions that were mostly water vapor. On 18 and 24 September the emissions contained ash. An earthquake swarm detected on 25 September was characterized by events less than M 1 that occurred 2 km W of the crater at depths near 3 km. The Alert Level remained at III (Yellow; "changes in the behavior of volcanic activity").

 

                               

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

no tropical storm reported so far

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground.com Tropical Storm Nadine

SEP- 19- 2012

ATLANTIC

45 MPH (-)

29.0° W

32.2° N

APPR. 400 KM S OF AZORES W reemerged on Sep-19  
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Miriam

SEP- 19- 2012

EASTERN PACIFIC

105 MPH (+)

111.9° W  

18.5° N

APPR. 420 KM WEST OF MANZANILLO/ MEXICO NW    
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Jelawat

SEP- 20- 2012

WESTERN PACIFIC

160 MPH (+)

127.8° W

15.7° N

APPR. 300 KM EASTOF LUZON/ PHILIPPINES N  
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Ewiniar

SEP- 19- 2012

WESTERN PACIFIC

45 MPH (+)

138.3° E

21.8° N

APPR. 800 KM SWOF SOUTHERN JAPAN N    
(+) = storm speed was INCREASING (-) = storm speed was DECREASING = media report available (click on this symbol)    

 

                   

FLOODINGS/ INDIA MONSOON

           

20120927

report by:

google.com

 

Military called in to help flood-hit NE India

GUWAHATI, India — Air force helicopters and soldiers in rubber dinghies helped deliver fresh water and food to flood victims in northeast India on Tuesday as the number of displaced rose to 1.8 million. Nineteen of 27 districts in the state of Assam have been hit by floods and 13 people have been killed over the past week, according to the latest figures from the local disaster management authority. The remote and impoverished state, which was rocked by ethnic violence last month, has been flooded three times this year by the mighty Brahmaputra River, which often breaks its banks during the monsoon season. "We have called in the army to assist civil authorities in rescue operations in several parts of the state where people are trapped with floodwaters entering their homes," Assam's Relief and Rehabilitation Minister Prithibi Majhi told AFP. Thousands of people in Majuli, a densely populated river island about 350 kilometres (220 miles) from Assam's main city of Guwahati, have fled to higher ground or are crowded onto embankments....read more...

 

 

 

                   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  SDO REAL TIME

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2 - SOLAR

 

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

121

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

298-374

FLARES

C

06

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

139

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 4.6

 

M

 

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

02

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

80- 120 nT

 

X

 

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

OVERALL SOLAR ACTIVITY >> :

INCREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20120815

20120902

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

 

20120722

20120831

 

 

11573

48°- 62° W

17° N

Axx/alpha

 

 

 

 

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

 

11575

04° - 18° W

07° N

beta

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

 

11576

03° E- 11° W

22° S

beta

Sep- 25

       

CH 536

TRANSEQU.

CLOSED

SEP- 14

SEP 17/ 18

   
 

11577

15°- 01° E

08° N

 

Sep- 26

                     
NEWLY EMERGED

11578

10° E- 04° W

20° N

   

 

 

 

 

LAST- NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (N-P - CH- EXT)

SEP- 18-

 

 

NEWLY EMERGED

11579

73°- 59° E

10° S

         

 

LAST- SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT)

SEP- 19

 

 

           

 

 

 

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

NONE

 

 

         

 

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

         

 

 

 

 

 

FILAMENTS >

 

 

         

 

        *POSITION= Centered at    
REMARKS>          
      ( ex.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class. alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**

 

 

 

 

red letters = currently most active region

*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson)

 

SOLAR/ INTERPLANETARY:

ELECTRON FLUX INCREASED ON SEP 06:

 

                    GOES/ELECTRON FLUX: GOESPROTON FLUX:  

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA

         

 

   

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

2012

NOAA/ RSGA

 

 

SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the period was a C4 flare at 25/1753Z from Region 1580 (N17E67). New Region 1581 (N22E03) was numbered today. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

 

 

 

 

CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)

       

 

 

(date)

CMEs at:

none

ARRIVAL: (estimated): POLARITY: UNKNOWN BETA ALPHA    

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED EVENT >>

CME ARRIVAL 20120912

int. CME Nr. >>

76/ 12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT: LARGER EVENTS ARE LIKELY WITH LATENCIES

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

30°- 90° W

STRONG

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

(THUNDER-) STORMS

CENTRAL AMERICA& CALIF.

< VOLCANISM/ QUAKES >

N- AMERICA >< EURASIA

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

SOUTH AMERICA WEST

< GEOGRAPHIC >

N/AMERICA ><J. DE FUCA

 

25 SEPTEMBER - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

WEST ATLANTIC

These forcasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

COCOS >< PACIFIC

 

M 5.5- 6.0/ POTENTIAL= >7.5

LONG LATENCY

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

 

S-AMERICA >< NASCA

 

26 SEPTEMBER - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS?

SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5- 6.0/ POTENTIAL= >7.5

2-3

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

55° E - 150° E

EURASIA ><AFRICA

 

27 SEPTEMBER - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

CNTR. EUROPE >>

EURASIA >< INDO - AUS

 

M 5.5- 6.0/ POTENTIAL= >7.5

preliminary

 

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME

INDIA

*REGIONS> see definition below

EASTERN PACIFIC

 

 

 

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/GEO.magnetometer

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES> PROTON INFLUENCE EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS > PARADOX EFFECTS /LATENCIES

 

 

QUIET

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REPORTS /LINKS

 

MINOR STORM (CME ARRIVAL)

 

ELECTRON STORM

   

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

MAJOR STORM     PROTON S>TPRM        

 

 

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE

NONE

 

internal remarks:  

 

S. RADIATION STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 

      RADIO BLACKOUTS NONE

NONE

   
 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

 

GEOMAG.: . HIGHTENED ELECTRONS AFTER PROTON IMPACT ( Aug- 03) AGAIN EFFECTIVE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

SEPTEMBER

 

DAY:

24

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

MAP:

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.5 - TONGA - 2012-09-24 10:31:23 UTC

 

EMSC

 

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

 

 

 

 

 

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

EVENTS WITH PARTICULAR QUAKESHIGHER THAN M 2 AND EXCEEDING M 3.0:

EMSC

 

PAGAN/ MARIANA ISLANDS

SEPTEMBER 16- 2012

PAGAN

01

  M 4.4 - PAGAN REG., N. MARIANA ISLANDS - 2012-09-24 08:37:08 UTC  

VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION

SEPTEMBER 16- 2012

VIRGIN ISLANDS

16

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.3 - VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION- 2012-09- 24 15:56:36 UTC  

REGION COSTA RICA / EL SALVADOR (Source: INETER)

SEP- 05- 2012

COSTA RICA

01

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.1 - OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR - 2012-09-24 22:22:13 UTC  

PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION

AUG- 28- 2012

PHILIPPINE ISL. REGION

01

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.8 - PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION - 2012-09-24 02:46:13 UTC  

EASTERN TURKEY- near VAN:

PERMANENT( higher since 2011)

EASTERN TURKEY-

06

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.0 - EASTERN TURKEY - 2012-09-24 16:13:41 UTC  

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

 

OTHER QUAKE SWARMS WITH MAGNITUDES > M 2.0 < M 3.0

EMSC

 
NORWEGIAN SEA/ ICELAND ANNUALLY DURING SUMMER NORWEGIAN SEA

00

     

AEGEAN SEA

SEPTEMBER 09- 2012

NEAR C.O.TESSALONIKI

01

 

CANARY ISLANDS REGION / MAINLY NEAR EL HIERRO

SINCE JUNE- 2011 CANARIES/ EL HIERRO

00

 

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012

CNTR. CALIFORNIA

04

 

NORTHERN ITALY

SINCE MAR 2012 NORTHERN ITALY

01

 

WESTERN TURKEY

PERMANENT( higher since 2011) WESTERN TURKEY

06

 
           

* at time of this update!

^"Rapid Earthquake viewer ^last CME impact map

 

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

no tropical storm reported so far

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground.com Tropical Storm Nadine

SEP- 19- 2012

ATLANTIC

60 MPH (+)

26.3° W

31.0° N

APPR.400 KM SOUTH OF AZORES WNW    
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Miriam

SEP- 19- 2012

EASTERN PACIFIC

90 MPH (+)

111.3° W

16.8° N

APPR. 500 KM SE OF MANZANILLO/ MEXICO WNW    
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Jelawat

SEP- 20- 2012

WESTERN PACIFIC

145 MPH (+)

128.2° W

14.2° N

APPR. 300 KM SE OF LUZON/ PHILIPPINES NNW    
wunderground.com Tropical Depression Nineteen

SEP- 19- 2012

WESTERN PACIFIC

30 MPH (+)

139.0° E

18.5° N

APPR. 500 KM E OF N-MARIANA ISLANDS NNW    
(+) = storm speed was INCREASING (-) = storm speed was DECREASING = media report available (click on this symbol)    

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  SDO REAL TIME

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2 - SOLAR

 

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

90

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

300-355

FLARES

C

03

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

136

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 5.2

 

M

 

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

02

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

80- 122 nT

 

X

 

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

OVERALL SOLAR ACTIVITY >> :

INCREASE

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20120815

20120902

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

 

20120722

20120831

 

 

11573

28°- 42° W

17° N

Axx/alpha

 

 

 

 

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

 

11575

09° E- 05° W

07° N

beta

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

 

11576

15°- 01° E

22° S

beta

Sep- 25

       

CH 536

TRANSEQU.

CLOSED

SEP- 14

SEP 17/ 18

   
 

11577

31°- 17° E

08° N

 

Sep- 26

                     
           

 

 

 

 

LAST- NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (N-P - CH- EXT)

SEP- 18-

 

 

                 

 

LAST- SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT)

SEP- 19

 

 

           

 

 

 

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

NONE

 

 

         

 

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

         

 

 

 

 

 

FILAMENTS >

 

 

         

 

        *POSITION= Centered at    
REMARKS>          
      ( ex.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class. alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**

 

 

 

 

red letters = currently most active region

*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson)

 

SOLAR/ INTERPLANETARY:

ELECTRON FLUX INCREASED ON SEP 06:

 

                    GOES/ELECTRON FLUX: GOESPROTON FLUX:  

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA

         

 

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

2012

NOAA/ RSGA

 

 

SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A C1 flare occurred at 24/1542Z from new Region 1578 (N21E10). Another C1 flare occurred at 24/1931Z from an unnumbered region currently rotating onto the northeast limb. Another new region rotated onto the southeast limb and was numbered Region 1579 (S09E70). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the reporting period.

 

 

 

 

CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)

       

 

 

(date)

CMEs at: NONE ARRIVAL: (estimated): POLARITY: UNKNOWN BETA ALPHA    

TRACKING NR.:

--

20120923/ 19:24 UTC   20120924/ 15:46 UT 20120925/ 15:39 UTC    

GOES/ X-RAY FLUX: (Solar nuclear activity)

 

ACTIVE REGIONS

---      

 

 

---  

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

     

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

ACTIVITY NCREASE    
TYPE II and IV RADIO EMISSIONS

(1) STEREO- AHEAD

(2) STEREO- BEHIND

(3) SDO /AIA-blue

(4) STEREO- AHEAD

  (5) SoHO- LASCO C3

 

Abbreviations >

LDE=

Long Duration Event

 

 

 

 

 

 

try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

internal remarks

                       

2012

alien-homepage.de

 

No Earth directed CME was observed during the last days.September 13 marked the last periodical and regular minium in solar activity fluctuation. SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY since then with larger eruptions on the backside of the Sun. A slight increase in Proton flux on Sep 24could be observed since a kind of overall eruption occured on Sep- 23 that included mainly the backside and the South Polar region eruption on Sep 23 butalso some had also a minor frontside component ( img 1)

SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED ONTHE EARTH FACING SUN SIDE DURING SEPTEMBER 24 . Sep- 24: (3) Filament activities could be observed East of the regions 11575, 77 and 78 on Sep 26.AR 11578 produced possibly a minor small CME at 15:46. A larger and long duration flare began early on Sep 25 after 6:32 UTC in AR 11577 (4) , continued throughout Sep- 25 and likely peaked in a larger eruption with a CME on Sep- 25 after 16:00 UTC . Neither SDO nor STEREO or SoHO have submitted proper images of that event after 16:00 UTC yet.

   
 
                             

LAST CME ARRIVALS:

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

DATE OF LAST CME ARRIVAL >

20120912

NUMBER > 76/ 12

prominence eruption during LDE flare STRENGTH > > 155 nT

CURRENTLY ACTIVE CMEs: >>

CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs

NONE

ACTIVE>

00

 

REMARKS>

PROTON CME : STRONGER EFFECTS EXPERCTABLE, WHEN ELECTRON WILL BECOME DOMINANT

MULTIPLE CME (CLUSTERS)

NONE >> ERUPTION DAY > SEP- 01 SEP- 04 SEP 10 SEP 17  

 

 

CMEs BY TRACKING NRS.> 75/12

none

76&12

none

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE: 2 CMEs during LDE minor LDE

LDE

short flare

 

 

ESTIMATED ARRIVALS SEP 04-05? SEP- 06/07? SEP 12 SEP 19

 

ARRIVED ON: SEP 05/ after 6:00 and 09 UTC SEP- 04

EXTERNAL SOURCES( CME):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NASA/ ACE: CME and SOLAR WIND/Analysis system>

ACE/ EPAM: ELECTRONS

ACE/SIS: PROTONS

RU/ MOSCOW: NEUTRONS

 

NASA/ISWA/animation of interplanetary CME evolution a.m.o.

 

NASA ARCHIVES>

NASA/ NOAA- PROTON FLUX/ arch

GOES/ 3 days X-RAY FLUX

GOES/ ELECTRONS

GOEShp ( MAG)

 

VARIOUS>

 

 

 

Magn complexity/ particle acceleration

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED EVENT >>

CME ARRIVAL 20120912

int. CME Nr. >>

76/ 12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT: LARGER EVENTS ARE LIKELY WITH LATENCIES

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

30°- 90° W

STRONG

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

(THUNDER-) STORMS

CENTRAL AMERICA& CALIF.

< VOLCANISM/ QUAKES >

N- AMERICA >< EURASIA

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

SOUTH AMERICA WEST

< GEOGRAPHIC >

N/AMERICA ><J. DE FUCA

 

24 SEPTEMBER - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

WEST ATLANTIC

These forcasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

COCOS >< PACIFIC

 

M 5.5- 6.0/ POTENTIAL= >7.5

LONG LATENCY

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

 

S-AMERICA >< NASCA

 

25 SEPTEMBER - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS?

SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5- 6.0/ POTENTIAL= >7.5

2-3

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

55° E - 150° E

EURASIA ><AFRICA

 

26 SEPTEMBER - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

CNTR. EUROPE >>

EURASIA >< INDO - AUS

 

M 5.5- 6.0/ POTENTIAL= >7.5

preliminary

 

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME

INDIA

*REGIONS> see definition below

EASTERN PACIFIC

 

 

 

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/GEO.magnetometer

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES> PROTON INFLUENCE EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS > PARADOX EFFECTS /LATENCIES

 

 

QUIET

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on days 1-3 (25-27 September).

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REPORTS /LINKS

 

MINOR STORM (CME ARRIVAL)

 

ELECTRON STORM

   

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

MAJOR STORM     PROTON S>TPRM        

 

 

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE

NONE

 

internal remarks:  

 

S. RADIATION STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 

      RADIO BLACKOUTS NONE

NONE

   
 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

SEPTEMBER

 

DAY:

23

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

MAP:

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.3 - FIJI REGION - 2012-09-23 06:40:52 UTC

 

EMSC

 

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

 

 

 

 

 

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

EVENTS WITH PARTICULAR QUAKESHIGHER THAN M 2 AND EXCEEDING M 3.0:

EMSC

 

VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION

SEPTEMBER 16- 2012

VIRGIN ISLANDS

19

  M 4.4 - VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION- 2012- 09- 23 05:34:43 UTC  

REGION COSTA RICA / EL SALVADOR (Source: INETER)

SEP- 05- 2012

COSTA RICA

01

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.4 - COSTA RICA - 2012-09-23 21:35:05 UTC  

PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION

AUG- 28- 2012

PHILIPPINE ISL. REGION

01

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.9 - PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION - 2012-09-23 06:30:25 UTC  

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

MORE THAN 5: OTHER QUAKE SWARMS WITH MAGNITUDES > M 2.0 < M 3.0

EMSC

 

CANARY ISLANDS REGION / MAINLY NEAR EL HIERRO

SINCE JUNE- 2011 CANARIES/ EL HIERRO

00

     

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

JULY 2012

DODOCANESE ISLAND R.

04

 

PUERTO RICO REGION (USGS)

SEPTEMBER 16- 2012

PUERTO RICO REGION

02 (- M 3.1)

 

NEW : CENTRAL TURKEY

SEPTEMBER 16- 2012

CENTRAL TURKEY/

03

 

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012

CNTR. CALIFORNIA

00

 

NORTHERN ITALY

SINCE MAR 2012 NORTHERN ITALY

02

 

EASTERN TURKEY- near VAN:

PERMANENT( higher since 2011)

EASTERN TURKEY-

00

 
           

* at time of this update!

^"Rapid Earthquake viewer ^last CME impact map

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

no tropical storm reported so far

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground.com Tropical Storm Miriam

SEP- 19- 2012

EASTERN PACIFIC

45 MPH (+)

108.5° W

14.9° N

APPR.300 KM SE OF MANZANILLO/ MEXICO WNW    
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Jelawat

SEP- 20- 2012

WESTERN PACIFIC

85 MPH (+)

128.9° W

11.8° N

APPR. 200 KM EAST OF SAMAR ISLANDS/ PHILIPPINES W    
(+) = storm speed was INCREASING (-) = storm speed was DECREASING = media report available (click on this symbol)    
                                 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  SDO REAL TIME

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2 - SOLAR

 

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

57

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

332-371

FLARES

C

01

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

133

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 3.7

 

M

 

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

00

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

80- 115 nT

 

X

 

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

OVERALL SOLAR ACTIVITY >> :

LOW

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20120815

20120902

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

 

20120722

20120831

 

 

11573

12°- 26° W

17° N

Axx/alpha

 

 

 

 

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

 

11575

23°- 09° E

07° N

beta/gamma

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

 

11576

31°- 17° E

22° S

beta

 

       

CH 536

TRANSEQU.

CLOSING

SEP- 14

SEP 17/ 18

   
NEWLY EMERGED

11577

45°- 31° E

08° N

                         
           

 

 

 

 

LAST- NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (N-P - CH- EXT)

SEP- 18

 

 

                 

 

LAST- SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT)

SEP- 19

 

 

           

 

 

 

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

LOW

CH 536

 

         

 

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

         

 

 

 

 

 

FILAMENTS >

 

 

         

 

        *POSITION= Centered at    
REMARKS>          
      ( ex.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class. alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**

 

 

 

 

red letters = currently most active region

*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson)

 

SOLAR/ INTERPLANETARY:

ELECTRON FLUX INCREASED ON SEP 06:

 

                    GOES/ELECTRON FLUX: GOESPROTON FLUX:  

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA

         

 

   

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

2012

NOAA/ RSGA

 

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event of the period was a long duration C1 x-ray flare at 23/1556Z from an area of enhanced emission located behind the east limb. Region 1577 (N08E30) indicated the most change during the period developing numerous intermediate spots. The remaining regions were quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

 

 

 

 

CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)

       

 

 

(date)

CMEs at: none ARRIVAL: (estimated): POLARITY: UNKNOWN BETA ALPHA    

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED EVENT >>

CME ARRIVAL 20120912

int. CME Nr. >>

76/ 12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT: LARGER EVENTS ARE LIKELY WITH LATENCIES

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

30°- 90° W

STRONG

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

(THUNDER-) STORMS

CENTRAL AMERICA& CALIF.

< VOLCANISM/ QUAKES >

N- AMERICA >< EURASIA

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

SOUTH AMERICA WEST

< GEOGRAPHIC >

N/AMERICA ><J. DE FUCA

 

23 SEPTEMBER - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

WEST ATLANTIC

These forcasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

COCOS >< PACIFIC

 

M 5.5- 6.0/ POTENTIAL= >7.5

2-3

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

 

S-AMERICA >< NASCA

 

24 SEPTEMBER - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS?

SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5- 6.0/ POTENTIAL= >7.5

preliminary

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

55° E - 150° E

EURASIA ><AFRICA

 

25 SEPTEMBER - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

CNTR. EUROPE >>

EURASIA >< INDO - AUS

 

M 5.5- 6.0/ POTENTIAL= >7.5

preliminary

 

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME

INDIA

*REGIONS> see definition below

EASTERN PACIFIC

 

 

 

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/GEO.magnetometer

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES> PROTON INFLUENCE EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS > PARADOX EFFECTS /LATENCIES

 

 

QUIET

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. ACE satellite measurements indicated a steady decline in wind speed from about 400 km/s to near 350 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 4 nT.

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REPORTS /LINKS

 

MINOR STORM (CME ARRIVAL)

 

ELECTRON STORM

   

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

MAJOR STORM   PROTON S>TPRM        

 

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE

NONE

 

internal remarks:

 

S. RADIATION STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 

      RADIO BLACKOUTS NONE

NONE

   
 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

 

GEOMAG.: HSS WIND FROM CH 536 ceased. HIGHTENED ELECTRONS AFTER PROTON IMPACT ( Aug- 03) AGAIN EFFECTIVE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

SEPTEMBER

 

DAY:

22

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

MAP:

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.6 - TONGA - 2012-09-22 06:58:27 UTC

 

EMSC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EARTHQUAKES TODAY

REPORTS:

NAME of REGION

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME

MAGNITUDE

DEPTH

CATHEGORY

GOOGLE EARTH:

 

 

- GREECE -

38.10 N ; 22.77 E

2012-09-22 03:52:26 UTC M 5.6

10 km

 

---

 

                 
 

 

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

 

 

 

 

 

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

EVENTS WITH PARTICULAR QUAKESHIGHER THAN M 2 AND EXCEEDING M 3.0:

EMSC

 

OAXACA, MEXICO/ likely related to Popocatepetl

2012 OAXACA REGION

01

  M 5.3 - OAXACA, MEXICO - 2012-09-22 12:30:02 UTC  

NEW : CENTRAL TURKEY (PREQUAKE WARNING?)

SEPTEMBER 16- 2012

CENTRAL TURKEY/

08

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.3 - CENTRAL TURKEY - 2012-09-22 15:08:19 UTC  

PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION

AUG- 28- 2012

PHILIPPINE ISL. REGION

01

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.8 - PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION - 2012-09-22 11:45:37 UTC  

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012

CNTR. CALIFORNIA

03

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.5 - OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA- 2012- 09- 22 02:55:24 UTC  

AFTERQUAKES /GREECE- CORINTH REGION

SEP- 22- 2012

see above

01 HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.8 - GREECE - 2012-09-22 06:15:59 UTC  

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

MORE THAN 5: OTHER QUAKE SWARMS WITH MAGNITUDES > M 2.0 < M 3.0

EMSC

 

CANARY ISLANDS REGION / MAINLY NEAR EL HIERRO

SINCE JUNE- 2011 CANARIES/ EL HIERRO

00

     

WESTERN TURKEY

PERMANENT( higher since 2011) WESTERN TURKEY

09

 

PUERTO RICO REGION (USGS) (PREQUAKE WARNING?!)

SEPTEMBER 16- 2012

PUERTO RICO REGION

02

 

NORTHERN ITALY

SINCE MAR 2012 NORTHERN ITALY

00

 

EASTERN TURKEY- near VAN:

PERMANENT( higher since 2011)

EASTERN TURKEY-

00

 
           

* at time of this update!

^"Rapid Earthquake viewer ^last CME impact map

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

no tropical storm reported so far

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground.com Post-Tropical Cyclone Nadine

SEP- 08- 2012

NORTHERN ATLANTIC

60 MPH (-)

26.6° W

31.9° N

APPR.450 km NNW of CANARY ISL. SSE    
wunderground.com Invest 94L

SEP- 19- 2012

NORTHERN ATLANTIC

40 MPH ()

59.5° W

33.7° N

APPR. 250 KM NE of BERMUDA ISL. NW    
wunderground.com Tropical Depression Thirteen-E

SEP- 19- 2012

EASTERN PACIFIC

35 MPH (+)

107.5° W

13.7° N

APPR.400 KM SE OF ACAPULCO/ MEXICO W    
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Jelawat

SEP- 20- 2012

WESTERN PACIFIC

55 MPH (+)

129.9° W

11.7° N

APPR.250KM EAST OF SAMAR ISLANDS/ PHILIPPINES SSW    
(+) = storm speed was INCREASING (-) = storm speed was DECREASING = media report available (click on this symbol)    

FROM OUTER SPACE?

                 
             

20120922

report by:

bbc.co.uk

 

'Meteors' sighted in skies across UK

People from across the UK have reported seeing bright objects in the night sky, thought to be meteors or "space junk" Coastguards in Northern Ireland took calls from people who saw the objects from Coleraine on the north coast, to Strangford Lough in the south east. The lights were seen as far north as Caithness in Scotland as well as in Wales and Norfolk in East Anglia. Experts said the sightings could be satellite debris, burning up on entry to the atmosphere. The lights have also been reported in the Midlands, parts of north-east England and in Glasgow and Edinburgh. Brian Guthrie in Grangemouth near Edinburgh, who watched the objects pass through the sky, said it appeared to be something "pretty large breaking up in the atmosphere". "I've seen shooting stars and meteor showers before, but this was much larger and much more colourful."...read more...

 

                                 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  SDO REAL TIME

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2 - SOLAR

 

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

46

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

349-471

FLARES

C

 

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

124

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 3.1

 

M

 

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

07

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

62- 110 nT

 

X

 

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

OVERALL SOLAR ACTIVITY >> :

LOW

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20120815

20120902

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

 

20120722

20120831

 

rotating out

11569

94° - 98° W

12° N

Eao/beta-gamma

 

 

 

 

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

 

11571

62° - 76° W

13° S

B-type Cso

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG:

 

 

11573

01°- 15° W

17° N

Axx/alpha

 

       

CH 536

TRANSEQU.

GROWING

SEP- 14

SEP 17/ 18

   

11575

37°- 23° E

07° N

beta

 

                     
 

11576

44°- 30° E

22° S

beta

 

 

 

 

 

LAST- NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (N-P - CH- EXT)

SEP- 18

 

 

                 

 

LAST- SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT)

SEP- 19

 

 

           

 

 

 

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

- 530 km/s

CH 536

 

         

 

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

 

         

 

 

 

 

 

FILAMENTS >

 

 

         

 

        *POSITION= Centered at    
REMARKS>          
      ( ex.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class. alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**

 

 

 

 

red letters = currently most active region

*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson)

 

SOLAR/ INTERPLANETARY:

ELECTRON FLUX INCREASED ON SEP 06:

 

                    GOES/ELECTRON FLUX: GOESPROTON FLUX:  

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA

         

 

   

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

2012

NOAA/ RSGA

 

 

SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. The largest event of the period was a long duration B9 x-ray event at 22/2010Z from an area of enhanced emission located behind the east limb near S15. New Region 1577 (N08E43) emerged on the disk as a stable, 4-spot bipolar group. Region 1575 (N08E24) increased in magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma configuration. The remainder of the disk and limb was quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

 

 

 

 

CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)

       

 

 

(today`s date)

CMEs at: NONE ARRIVAL: (estimated): POLARITY: UNKNOWN BETA ALPHA    

LAST CME ARRIVALS:

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

DATE OF LAST CME ARRIVAL >

20120912

NUMBER > 76/ 12

prominence eruption during LDE flare STRENGTH > > 155 nT

CURRENTLY ACTIVE CMEs: >>

CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs

NONE

ACTIVE>

00

 

REMARKS>

PROTON CME : STRONGER EFFECTS EXPERCTABLE, WHEN ELECTRON WILL BECOME DOMINANT

MULTIPLE CME (CLUSTERS)

NONE >> ERUPTION DAY > SEP- 01 SEP- 04 SEP 10 SEP 17  

 

 

CMEs BY TRACKING NRS.> 75/12

none

76&12

none

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE: 2 CMEs during LDE minor LDE

LDE

short flare

 

 

ESTIMATED ARRIVALS SEP 04-05? SEP- 06/07? SEP 12 SEP 19

 

ARRIVED ON: SEP 05/ after 6:00 and 09 UTC SEP- 04

EXTERNAL SOURCES( CME):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NASA/ ACE: CME and SOLAR WIND/Analysis system>

ACE/ EPAM: ELECTRONS

ACE/SIS: PROTONS

RU/ MOSCOW: NEUTRONS

 

NASA/ISWA/animation of interplanetary CME evolution a.m.o.

 

NASA ARCHIVES>

NASA/ NOAA- PROTON FLUX/ arch

GOES/ 3 days X-RAY FLUX

GOES/ ELECTRONS

GOEShp ( MAG)

 

VARIOUS>

 

 

 

Magn complexity/ particle acceleration

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

 

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED EVENT >>

CME ARRIVAL 20120912

int. CME Nr. >>

76/ 12

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT: LARGER EVENTS ARE LIKELY WITH LATENCIES

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

30°- 90° W

STRONG

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

 

(THUNDER-) STORMS

CENTRAL AMERICA& CALIF.

< VOLCANISM/ QUAKES >

N- AMERICA >< EURASIA

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

 

WARM

HOT

DRY

SOUTH AMERICA WEST

< GEOGRAPHIC >

N/AMERICA ><J. DE FUCA

 

22 SEPTEMBER - 2012

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

WEST ATLANTIC

These forcasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

COCOS >< PACIFIC

 

M 5.5-> 7.0

2-3

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

 

S-AMERICA >< NASCA

 

23 SEPTEMBER - 2012

 

INDUCED CURRENTS?

SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5- 6.0/ POTENTIAL= >7.5

2-3

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

55° E - 150° E

EURASIA ><AFRICA

 

24 SEPTEMBER - 2012

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

CNTR. EUROPE >>

EURASIA >< INDO - AUS

 

M 5.5- 6.0/ POTENTIAL= >7.5

preliminary

 

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME

INDIA

*REGIONS> see definition below

EASTERN PACIFIC

 

 

 

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/GEO.magnetometer

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity :

 

INFLUENCES> PROTON INFLUENCE EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

 

 

 


 

EFFECTING AS > PARADOX EFFECTS /LATENCIES

 

 

QUIET

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. ACE satellite measurements indicated a steady decline in wind velocity from about 500 km/s to near 400 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 4 nT.

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

SHORTCUTS

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REPORTS /LINKS

 

MINOR STORM (CME ARRIVAL)

 

ELECTRON STORM

   

NASA/ GOES 15/ BLOG

 

MAJOR STORM   PROTON S>TPRM        

 

 

SOLAR STORMS:

NONE

NONE

 

internal remarks:  

 

S. RADIATION STORM

NONE

NONE

 

 

      RADIO BLACKOUTS NONE

NONE

   
 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

 

GEOMAG.: Geomagnetic field density is slowly decreasing. Potential energy for earthquake might likely become effective now

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                 
                                 
                                 
click here to open and close collapsible panel with the archived "SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG" SEPTEMBER 15- 21- 2012

 

 

 

2012

MONTH:

SEPTEMBER

 

DAY:

21

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

EXTERNAL SOURCES:

 

EARTHQUAKES:

 

 

 

 

 

MAP:

EMSC

NEIC

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

M 5.0 - CENTRAL MEDITERRANEAN SEA - 2012-09-21 08:47:39 UTC

 

EMSC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EARTHQUAKES TODAY

REPORTS:

NAME of REGION

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME

MAGNITUDE

DEPTH

CATHEGORY

GOOGLE EARTH:

 

 

CENTRAL MEDITERRANEAN SEA

35.23 N ; 22.55 E

2012-09-21 08:47:39 UTC M 5.0 10 km unknown

---

 

                 
 

 

UNDER SURVEY: EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

 

 

 

 

 

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

EVENTS WITH PARTICULAR QUAKESHIGHER THAN M 2 AND EXCEEDING M 3.0:

EMSC

 

HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN SEPTEMBER 21- 2012 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN

02

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.5 - HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN - 2012-09-21 17:19:04 UTC  

NEW : CENTRAL TURKEY (PREQUAKE WARNING?)

SEPTEMBER 16- 2012

CENTRAL TURKEY/

12

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.0 - CENTRAL TURKEY - 2012-09-21 19:08:16 UTC  

REGION COSTA RICA / EL SALVADOR (Source: INETER)

SEP- 05- 2012

COSTA RICA

01

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 4.3 - OFF THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR - 2012-09-21 11:12:04 UTC  

WESTERN TURKEY

PERMANENT( higher since 2011) WESTERN TURKEY

07

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE: M 3.0 - WESTERN TURKEY - 2012-09-21 18:14:07 UTC  

NAME OF REGION:

FIRST OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

: OTHER QUAKE SWARMS WITH MAGNITUDES > M 2.0 < M 3.0

EMSC

 

VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION

SEPTEMBER 16- 2012

VIRGIN ISLANDS

03 (-M 3.2)

   

PUERTO RICO REGION (USGS)

SEPTEMBER 16- 2012

PUERTO RICO REGION

02 (- M 3.2)

 

CANARY ISLANDS REGION / MAINLY NEAR EL HIERRO

SINCE JUNE- 2011 CANARIES/ EL HIERRO

00

 

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012

CNTR. CALIFORNIA

00

 

NORTHERN ITALY

SINCE MAR 2012 NORTHERN ITALY

00

 

EASTERN TURKEY- near VAN:

PERMANENT( higher since 2011)

EASTERN TURKEY-

00

 

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

JULY 2012

DODOCANESE ISLAND R.    
           

* at time of this update!

 

MEDIA REPORTS:        

 

 

Weird 'Sounds' Picked Up By Space Probes In Earth's Magnetosphere

Energetic particles in the magnetosphere emit radio waves that are audible to humans. The NASA Radiation Belt Storm Probes mission's (RBSP) instrumentation captured an instance of the event. The 'chorus' phenomenon is well known by scientists.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

no tropical storm reported so far

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground.com Tropical Storm Nadine

SEP- 08- 2012

NORTHERN ATLANTIC

65 MPH (+)

27.5° W

35.3° N

APPR.150 km S of AZORES E SE    
wunderground.com Invest 94L

SEP- 19- 2012

NORTHERN ATLANTIC

40 MPH (+)

56.2° W

32.3° N

APPR. 350 KM EAST of BERMUDA ISL. NW    
wunderground.com Invest 93E

SEP- 19- 2012

EASTERN PACIFIC

30 MPH (+)

104.5° W

13.7° N

APPR. 280 KM SW OF ACAPULCO/ MEXICO W    
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Jelawat

SEP- 20- 2012

WESTERN PACIFIC

40 MPH ()

130.7° W

13.2° N

APPR. 300 KM EAST OF SAMAR ISLANDS/ PHILIPPINES WSW    
(+) = storm speed was INCREASING (-) = storm speed was DECREASING = media report available (click on this symbol)    
                   

 

 

Southamerian Indio tribes have joined a project to communicate over the internet with an own webpage. The page is named "indios-online" and wants to create a dialogue, but also informs about tribal affairs