-----------------------

 

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alien- homepage.de- Earth quake statistics- -SUN SPOT ACTIVITY- 11- years solar cycle- last update: MAY- 04- 2013- -07:00 UTC copyright: reserved

background image: Aurora Borealis /COMMONS / wikipedia
open source earthquake forecast project created and provided by: alien-homepage.de-

 

According to NASA, this 24th. 11 year sun spot cycle has probably a " twin peak"- the second in 2015. This projekt therefore will be prolongued.
 
2012/ 13 - MAXIMUM OF 11- YEAR SOLAR CYCLE
SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG

ARCHIVE APRIL - 2013

NASA STEREO BEACON

alien-homepage.de / internal links:

TRANSLATORS
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PROJECT CENTRAL:

ws

PAGES RELATED TO THIS SOLAR/TERRESTRIAL PROJECT>
>HAVE YOU ANY COMMENT?
               
SOHO REALTIME current view on the Sun
SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG/ ARCHIVES:
2013 > APRIL              
2012 >

2011 >
2010 >
NOTE: I WILL INTRODUCE A NEW ARCHIVE SYSTEM IN 2012. CLICK ON THE BUTTON (right) FOR THE NEW ARCHIVE DIRECTORY! >

Note: Due to the high data amount in these monthly archives, I am currently trying to improve this by putting the single archives into collapsible panels.

Also I will split the monthly archive into 4 weekly ones. click on the following tabs to open the collapsible panels. You can report to my blog, if you should still experience problems when loading this page.

click here to open panel with graphics, volcano maps , earthquake statistic- APRIL- 2013
   

True and REAL TIME graphic solution, that makes obvious the coincidences of CME impacts and extraordinary natural phenomenons such as heavier Earthquakes, volcano eruptions, hurricanes. sudden ice meltdowns (floddings) and others

( click on the graphic top to enlarge it):

 
INTERNAL MAPS: click on the images or links below to get to my large regional maps, where you find all volcanoes around the world with descriptions , webcams and much more such as ancients sites! . Weekly regular activity updates, special earthquakes events with many functions

world volcano map 1.0

world volcano map version 2.0

Europe and Western Asia Africa and Arabic peninsula Central America and Mexico South America- Northern part South America- Southern part Central America and Mexico Northern America Kamchatka peninsula Japan region Indonesia and Philippines Australia and Southern Pacific

 

SPACECRAFTS:
SoHO
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
SDO /AIA
Solar Dynamics Observatory
STEREO
Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory
GOES
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites

ACE

 
 
 
 
 
 
Advanced Composition Explorer

^^ internal Earthquake statistics- with Sun activity curves : green = SUNSPOT NUMBER, Pink= SOLAR FLUX, blue= PLANETARY A INDEX- right image: planetary constellations in March 2013

click here to see some of the paradox observations made during that solar cycle first possibly by observatory sopacecrafts: : CORONAL HOLES THOSE REAPPEAR DURING SEVERAL SOLAR ROTATION PERIODS ON THE SAME HELIOGRAPHIC POSITION

 

VIDEOS/ REPORTS OF THE WEEK- APRIL- 2013:

VIDEOS/ REPORTS OF THE WEEK- APRIL -2013:

   
 

 

   
 
 
SIGNIFICANT SOLAR EVENTS- APRIL- 2013
 

 

click here to open and close collapsible panel with the archived "SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG" APRIL 22- 30- 2013
Inhalt

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

APRIL

 

DAY:

30

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 

      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS >  

 

EPICENTER/ MAP TSUNAMI WARNINGS    
Note:, as earthquake data are oftenly revised the next day by EMSC,this section will mostly be completed later this day . ! click here for MEDIA report ISSUED AT:   CANCELLED:  

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS > FOR REGIONS:  

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.8 - AZORES ISLANDS REGION - 2013-04-30 06:25:22 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

37.49 N ; 24.97 W

DEPTH >

2 km

WAVE/HEIGHT   FREQUENCY  

 

 

                  note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!  
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0):

 

PACIFIC/MAINLY WEST/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC.

FREQUENT

"B"

MAP

01

PACIFIC >< ANTARCTICA M 5.5 - BALLENY ISLANDS REGION - 2013-04-30 14:39:21 UTC  

REGION INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES/ INDIA

FREQUENT

"A"

MAP

01

EURASIA >< / INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.5 - MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA - 2013-04-30 10:33:06 UTC  

CONTINENTAL EURASIA INCLUDING ASIA

SELDOM

"E"/"F

MAP

08

EURASIA>< AFRICA >> ARABIA M 5.3 - SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA - 2013-04-30 01:03:35 UTC  

WATCHING: EXTRAORDINARY AND NEW EVENTS AND REGIONS:

NUMBER= ALL EVENTS AS LISTED BY EMSC OR USGS

numbered are events > M 2.0 with single events exceeding magnitude M 4.0.

 

CANARY ISLANDS REGION

AFTER PROTON EVENTS

"E"

MAP

02

N-AMERICA >< AFRICA >< EURASIA M 3.4 - CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION - 2013-04-30 04:04:42 UTC  

AZORES ISLANDS REGION

SELDOM / FREQUENT

"E"

MAP

05

N-AMERICA >< AFRICA >< EURASIA M 3.7 - AZORES ISLANDS REGION - 2013-04-30 06:30:36 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  

 

           
        20130501/ 01:29 UTC    

 

 
             
   
   
   
   
STEREO-"AHEAD" STEREO-"AHEAD" STEREO-"AHEAD" STEREO-"AHEAD" SDO /AIA-comp SDO /AIA-comp SoHO/ LASCO C 3      
             
                       

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for may< volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 

         

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
SOURCES>> NASA/ GOES EUMETSAT METEOSAT (EUROPE)

NOAA/ Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Center

METEOALARM

usno.navy.mil NOAA  

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

appr. GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 
wunderground.com Tropical Cyclone Zane

20130429

WESTERN PACIFIC

40 MPH

150.2° E

13.9° S

300 km OFFSHORE NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA (IRON RANGE R.)

WSW

TC

   
                     

VARIOUS REPORTS:_

                   
                           

WHAT`S THAT? US WEATHER.COM FORECASTS TEMPERATURE DROP OF 60 ° !!?

         

20130430

report by:

weather.com  

Where Temperatures Will Drop 60 Degrees

If you are a fan of extreme weather patterns, then this is your kind of week. A strong cold front plunging south across the nation's midsection will result in temperature drops of 60+ degrees in some cities! Snow is also in the forecast for parts of the central states. (MORE: May Kicks Off With Snow and Cold) Let's look at a few of the extreme temperature swings that we will see in this first week of May.

here just some examples:

Lubbock, Texas - Set a new record high of 94 degrees on Tuesday. Temperatures will plummet around 60 degrees to the middle 30s by Thursday morning and then struggle to reach the low 50s during the afternoon. Another of the many reasons Lubbock won our 2013 Toughest Weather City Tournament.

Minneapolis - The 70+ degree temperatures we've seen since this past Friday were nice while they lasted. Highs in the 40s and even upper 30s are expected Wednesday through the weekend. Some snow is possible as well.

Chicago - Saw its first 80-degree day of the year on Tuesday. One more day in the 80s on Wednesday, then it's back to highs in the 50s and low 60s through the weekend....read more...

 
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

165

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

323-473

FLARES >

C

11

 

CH 568

T. EQU.

GROWING

APR- 29- 2013

MAY- 03

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

154.4

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 6.7

 

M

 

 

CH UNN.

appr. 60° S

DISSOLVING

APR- 28- 2013

MAY- 02?

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

05

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

65- 130 nT

minor CME

X

 

 

CH 567

0- 30° N

GROWING

APR- 26- 2013

APR. 29

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

           

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS> NONE  
faded (APR 21)

11725

72 ° - 68° W

09 °  N

   

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 

ROTATED OUT>

11726

       

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (EVOLUTION) :

 

faded(APR 28)

11727

52 ° 66° W

25 °  N

AXX

          ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>>

INCREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
 

11728

12° - 26° W

21 °  N

HRX /CRO

          LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

unclear fluctuation

  < LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)  
faded again (28)

11729

64 ° - 78° W

25 °  N

AXX  

 

 

 

  LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130213

20130220

 
 

11730

22 ° - 36° W

18 °  S

EAI/ EAC

       

 

       

 

 

11731

10 ° E- 04° W

08 °  N

EKC

         

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
 

11732

47 ° - 33° E

17 °  S

DSO/ DSC

MAY- 03

     

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
 

11733

56 ° - 70° W

17 °  S

CRO

        *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
NEWLY EMERGED

11734

70 ° - 56° E

18 °  S

DSO/ EKC

MAY- 04

             
NEWLY EMERGED

11735

47 ° - 61° W

17 °  S

CRO/DRI

               

NEWLY SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

02

 

          INTERPLANETARY. REMARKS    

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

          PROTON FLUX

LOW/NORMAL

(APR 19:+) ( APRIL 21:- ) (APR 23: -) (APR 25:+) (APR 27: -) DECREASING  

 

 

 

^CME Nr.

      ELECTRON FLUX LOW/ NORMAL

LATEST: APRIL- 19: FLUCTUATIONS AND RISING VALUES/ DROPPING SINCE APR- 25

 

internal remarks:

 

 

       

 

PROTON STORM ENDED DECREASING INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

 

 
                 

 

 

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 29/2201Z from Region 1731 (N09E11). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 May, 02 May, 03 May).

 

 

   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

           

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130423- 25

int. CME Nr. >>

21/13

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

CENTRAL AMERICA

MULTIPLE CME CLUSTER LONGITUDES : 90° - 105° W

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

ELECTRON STORM

SUDDEN (THUNDER- STORMS

CALIFORNIA

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

EURASIA><AFRICA ><CARIBB. ><AMERICAS >< COCOS

 

ELECTRON STORM

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

SECONDARY REGIONS : CENTERED AT: 35° S- 55° N SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

30. APRIL 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

ALL AMERICAS

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

LONGITUDES: 15°W- 180° W

 

M 5.5- >6.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

LATENCY

 

INDUCED CURRENTS

ATLANTIC WEST

EURASIA >< AFRICA ><S & N- AMERICA

 

01. MAY 2013

 

MINOR RADIO BLACKOUTS

PACIFIC LONGITUDES: 15°W- 180° W

 

M 5.5- >6.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

LATENCY

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) WESTERN EUROPE & AFRICA

EURASIA >< AFRICA ><S & N- AMERICA

 

02. MAY 2013

 

ELECTRON STORM AFTER PROTON STORM

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS:

 

M 5.5- >6.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

LATENCY (preliminary)

 

OTHER:

GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES

GLOBAL *REGIONS> see definition below LONGITUDES : ALL

 

 
 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES

ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: STRONGER QUAKES UNLIKELY   INFLUENCES> ACTIVE ELECTRONS PROTON INFLUENCE

 

TECTONICS

HEATING UP (AFTER CME IMPACT COOLING DOWN (LATENCY/ ENDING) UNCERTAIN    

 

EFFECTING AS > INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS (PROTONS)  
        * note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated  

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

introgeomagnetic PROTON FLUX

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

QUIET

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

UNSETTLED

 

X RAY EVENT

NONE

NONE

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR RADIO EMISSIONS NONE NONE

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS:

NONE NONE  

 

MAJOR STORM

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE NONE  
   

SOLAR STORMS:

SOLAR STORMS ARE INTENSIVE PARTICLE EMISSIONS

 

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (PROT.)

 

> 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS

> 10000 pfu.

> 10000 pfu.)

   

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

 

2 MeV ELECTRONS

+/- 1000 pfu

+/- 1000 pfu

 

EFFECTIVE PROTONS

      >10 MeV PROTONS +/- 01 pfu < 10 pfu .  

internal remarks:

   

 

NEUTRONS- P/E SYNTHESIS > 5% RISING- < 5% RISING- < siginificant changes only (no alerts)

 

                 

APRIL 16. 2013: Strong earthquakes happen regularly immidiately during/ after Proton Storms (those themselves likely are also caused by kinds of solar quakes) However, this time I I lifted my Earthquake alert too early ( was corrected today).. The current situation is similar to the many massive earthquakes those followed the much stronger proton events after November 2004 and prior to March- 11- 2011, when stronger earthquake activity continued for weeks- after March 11 2011 even for month . But - due to the lower intensity and duration of the proton storm on April 11- 12- 2013 earthquake magnitudes this time are at least lower and another quake higher than M 9.0 must likely NO MORE BE EXPECTED with this event. Otherwise - the current earthquake happen on land and not offshore, thus the direct damge is much higher .

 

 

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM * compared to " normal" values INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 451 km/s at 30/1415Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 30/1402Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 30/0940Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1972 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (01 May, 03 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (02 May).

 

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

APRIL

 

DAY:

29

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 

      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS >  

 

EPICENTER/ MAP TSUNAMI WARNINGS    
Note:, as earthquake data are oftenly revised the next day by EMSC,this section will mostly be completed later this day . ! click here for MEDIA report ISSUED AT:   CANCELLED:  

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS > FOR REGIONS:  

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.5 - NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN - 2013-04-29 13:01:42 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

35.76 N ; 140.97 E

DEPTH >

10 km

WAVE/HEIGHT   FREQUENCY  

 

 

                  note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!  
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0):

 

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  

 

           
          20130429/ 02:44 UTC  

 

 
               
   
   
   
   
STEREO-"AHEAD" STEREO-"AHEAD" STEREO-"AHEAD" STEREO-"AHEAD" SDO /AIA-comp SDO /AIA-comp SoHO/ LASCO C 3      
             
                       

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for may< volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 

         

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
SOURCES>> NASA/ GOES EUMETSAT METEOSAT (EUROPE)

NOAA/ Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Center

METEOALARM

usno.navy.mil NOAA  
                     

VARIOUS REPORTS:_

                   
                           

AFTER PROTON EVENT. HOTSPOT ERUPTIONS AT ETNA/ NEW SEISMIC TREMORS AT AL HIERRO

   

2013042029

report by:

ct.ingv.it/en/  

NEW ERUPTIONS AT ETNA VOLCANO / SICIL/ ITALY- strongest yet in 2013,

The 13th episode of lava fountaining (paroxysm) of this year at Etna's New Southeast Crater took place on the evening of 27 April 2013, one week after the previous episode, and after a "prelude" characterized by Strombolian activity and frequent ash emissions. which had started already on 21 April, just one day after the 20 April paroxysm. After a gradual increase in both the eruptive activity and in the volcanic tremor amplitude, which had started on the evening of 26 April, the paroxysmal phase began shortly after sunset on 27 April, with lava fountains 300-500 m high, emission of lava flows from the southeastern and northeastern flanks of the New Southeast Crater cone and from the "saddle" between the two Southeast Crater cones, forming small lava flows toward south and north. A portion of the eastern flank of the cone collapsed, generating a pyroclastic flow, which advanced about 1 km toward the Valle del Bove.

Furthermore, a cloud of gas and pyroclastic material formed, which was blown by the wind to the northeast, resulting in ash and lapilli falls in the area of Linguaglossa, and more distant Taormina and Messina. The paroxysmal phase lasted about 2 hours; lava emission toward southeast continued for many hours and ceased during the forenoon of 28 April. A more detailed report will be posted shortly....read more...

ACTIVITIES RESUMED ALSO AT EL HIERRO (internal report)

It - took a little bit longer than previously thought. Proton storms cause a phase of calmity/ latency with extreme low earthquake magn. and yet another proton event just occured 10 days later- Apr. 21 while the previous one on Apr 11 was still effective. But today, April 30, 2 days after the subsequent electron storm began to induce more energy into the Earth`s core, we have again the reaction of hotspot volcanoes as after all previous proton eventsA first strronger quakes was registered near the Azores today ( M 5.2) and tremor activity resumed also nearby El Hierro with an initial quake with M 3.4 in just 12 km depth. >>AVCAN >

^volcanic tremor signal/ el Hierro

 
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

136

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

339-446

FLARES >

C

22

 

CH UNN.

appr. 60° S

GROWING

APR- 28- 2013

MAY- 02?

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

124.4

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 7.3

 

M

 

 

CH 567

0- 30° N

GROWING

APR- 26- 2013

APR. 29

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

03

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

75- 112 nT

 

X

 

 

CH 566

T- EQU.

CLOSED

APR- 17- 2013

APR. 21- 23

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

           

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS> NONE  
rotated out >

11723

       

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 

faded( APR 20)

11724

04 ° - 18° W

20 °  S

   

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (EVOLUTION) :

 

faded (APR 21)

11725

72 ° - 68° W

09 °  N

            ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>>

INCREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
ROTATED OUT>

11726

                LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

unclear fluctuation

  < LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)  
faded(APR 28)

11727

52 ° 66° W

25 °  N

AXX

 

 

 

 

  LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130213

20130220

 
 

11728

03° E- 11° W

21 °  N

HRX /CRO

APRIL 28

     

 

       

 

faded again (28)

11729

64 ° - 78° W

25 °  N

AXX

 

       

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
 

11730

05 ° E - 09° W

18 °  S

DSC/ DAI

APRIL-29

     

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
 

11731

24 ° - 10° E

08 °  N

DKC

APRIL-30

      *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
 

11732

57 ° - 43° E

17 °  S

HSX

MAY- 01

             
 

11733

42 ° - 56° W

18 °  S

CSO/CRO

               

NEWLY SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

03

 

        INTERPLANETARY. REMARKS    

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

          PROTON FLUX

DECREASING

(APR 19:+) ( APRIL 21:- ) (APR 23: -) (APR 25:+) (APR 27: -)  

 

 

 

^CME Nr.

      ELECTRON FLUX LOW/ NORMAL

LATEST: APRIL- 19: FLUCTUATIONS AND RISING VALUES/ DROPPING SINCE APR- 25

 

internal remarks:

 

 

       

 

PROTON STORM ENDED DECREASING INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

ALatest: APRIL- 20. Solar activity seems again to make summersets with three large Coronal holes covering almost a third of the solar disc and many new sun spots and active regions. AR 11726 emerged on April 26, developed quickly and produced several C class PROTON flares with associated CMEs and an increase of introgeomagnetic proton flux on April 21 and 22

 
                 

 

 

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 29/2032Z from Region 1730 (S18W20). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Apr, 01 May, 02 May).

 

 

   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

           

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130423- 25

int. CME Nr. >>

21/13

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

CENTRAL AMERICA

MULTIPLE CME CLUSTER LONGITUDES : 90° - 105° W

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

ELECTRON STORM

SUDDEN (THUNDER- STORMS

CALIFORNIA

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

EURASIA><AFRICA ><CARIBB. ><AMERICAS >< COCOS

 

ELECTRON STORM

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

SECONDARY REGIONS : CENTERED AT: 35° S- 55° N SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

29. APRIL 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

ALL AMERICAS

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

LONGITUDES: 15°W- 180° W

 

M 5.5- >6.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

LATENCY (preliminary)

 

INDUCED CURRENTS

ATLANTIC WEST

EURASIA >< AFRICA ><S & N- AMERICA

 

30. APRIL 2013

 

MINOR RADIO BLACKOUTS

PACIFIC LONGITUDES: 15°W- 180° W

 

M 5.5- >6.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

LATENCY (preliminary)

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) WESTERN EUROPE & AFRICA

EURASIA >< AFRICA ><S & N- AMERICA

 

31. APRIL 2013

 

ELECTRON STORM AFTER PROTON STORM

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS:

 

M 5.5- >6.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

LATENCY (preliminary)

 

OTHER:

GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES

GLOBAL *REGIONS> see definition below LONGITUDES : ALL

 

 
 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES

ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: STRONGER QUAKES UNLIKELY   INFLUENCES> ACTIVE ELECTRONS PROTON INFLUENCE

 

TECTONICS

HEATING UP (AFTER CME IMPACT COOLING DOWN (LATENCY/ ENDING) UNCERTAIN    

 

EFFECTING AS > INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS (PROTONS)  
        * note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated  

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

introgeomagnetic PROTON FLUX

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

QUIET

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

UNSETTLED

 

X RAY EVENT

NONE

NONE

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR RADIO EMISSIONS NONE NONE

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS:

NONE NONE  

 

MAJOR STORM

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE NONE  
   

SOLAR STORMS:

SOLAR STORMS ARE INTENSIVE PARTICLE EMISSIONS

 

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (PROT.)

 

> 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS

> 10000 pfu.

> 10000 pfu.)

   

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

 

2 MeV ELECTRONS

+/- 1000 pfu

> 1000 pfu

 

EFFECTIVE PROTONS

      >10 MeV PROTONS +/- 01 pfu < 10 pfu .  

internal remarks:

   

 

NEUTRONS- P/E SYNTHESIS < 5% RISING- > 4% DROPPING < siginificant changes only (no alerts)

 

                 

APRIL 16. 2013: Strong earthquakes happen regularly immidiately during/ after Proton Storms (those themselves likely are also caused by kinds of solar quakes) However, this time I I lifted my Earthquake alert too early ( was corrected today).. The current situation is similar to the many massive earthquakes those followed the much stronger proton events after November 2004 and prior to March- 11- 2011, when stronger earthquake activity continued for weeks- after March 11 2011 even for month . But - due to the lower intensity and duration of the proton storm on April 11- 12- 2013 earthquake magnitudes this time are at least lower and another quake higher than M 9.0 must likely NO MORE BE EXPECTED with this event. Otherwise - the current earthquake happen on land and not offshore, thus the direct damge is much higher .

 

 

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM * compared to " normal" values INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 450 km/s at 28/2332Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1591 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (30 Apr, 02 May) and quiet levels on day two (01 May).

 

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

APRIL

 

DAY:

28

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 

      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS >  

 

EPICENTER/ MAP TSUNAMI WARNINGS    
Note:, as earthquake data are oftenly revised the next day by EMSC,this section will mostly be completed later this day . ! click here for MEDIA report ISSUED AT:   CANCELLED:  

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS > FOR REGIONS:  

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.0 - EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA - 2013-04-28 15:28:07 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

31.76 N ; 104.47 E

DEPTH >

40 km

WAVE/HEIGHT   FREQUENCY  

 

 

                  note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!  
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0):

 

WATCHING: EXTRAORDINARY AND NEW EVENTS AND REGIONS:

NUMBER= ALL EVENTS AS LISTED BY EMSC OR USGS

numbered are events > M 2.0 with single events exceeding magnitude M 4.0.

 

MEDITERRANEAN SEA REGION (ALL)

FREQUENT

"E"

MAP

17

AFRICA >< EURASIA M 4.7 - SOUTHERN GREECE - 2013-04-28 16:31:04 UTC  

ARABIC PLATE -SYRIA, IRAQ ETC. INCL. IRAN

FREQUENT

"F"

MAP

01

AFR><ARAB >< EUR><INDO-AUS M 4.9 - SOUTHERN IRAN - 2013-04-28 12:11:32 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  

 

           
          20130428/ 19:30 UTC

 

 
               
   
   
   
   
STEREO-"AHEAD" STEREO-"AHEAD" STEREO-"AHEAD" STEREO-"AHEAD" SDO /AIA-comp SDO /AIA-comp SoHO/ LASCO C 3      
             
                       

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for may< volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 

         

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
SOURCES>> NASA/ GOES EUMETSAT METEOSAT (EUROPE)

NOAA/ Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Center

METEOALARM

usno.navy.mil NOAA  
                     

VARIOUS REPORTS:_

                   
                           

Storm floods streets, dumps rain and hail on Greater Houston area

         

20130428

report by: khou.com  
 

Storm floods streets, dumps rain and hail on Greater Houston area

HOUSTON – The National Weather Service has extended several weather warnings Saturday in regards to the severe thunderstorms moving through the Houston area. A flood warning is in effect until 7:42 a.m. Sunday morning for Harris County. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is also in effect until 1 a.m. on Sunday for the following counties: Austin, Brazoria, Calhoun, Chambers, Colorado, Fort Bend, Galveston, Grimes, Harris, Jackson, Liberty, Matagorda, Montgomery, Polk, San Jacinto, Walker, Waller, Washington and Wharton....read more...

   
                     
   

 

                   
   

 

               
 

 

 

               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

97

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

364-467

FLARES >

C

09

 

CH 567

0- 30° N

GROWING

APR- 26- 2013

APR. 29

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

131.7

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 6.9

 

M

 

 

CH 566

T- EQU.

CLOSING

APR- 17- 2013

APR. 21- 23

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

04

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

65- 115 nT

 

X

 

 

CH UNN.

> 60° SOUTH

CLOSING

APR- 15- 2013

APR 18

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

           

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS> NONE  
rotated out >

11723

       

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 

faded( APR 20)

11724

04 ° - 18° W

20 °  S

   

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (EVOLUTION) :

 

faded (APR 21)

11725

72 ° - 68° W

09 °  N

            ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>>

INCREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
ROTATED OUT>

11726

                LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

unclear fluctuation

  < LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)  
 

11727

52 ° 66° W

25 °  N

AXX

 

 

 

 

  LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130213

20130220

 
 

11728

12° E- 02° W

21 °  N

HRX /CRO

APRIL 28

     

 

       

 

reemerged APR27)

11729

64 ° - 78° W

25 °  N

AXX

 

       

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
 

11730

05 ° E - 09° W

18 °  S

DSC/ DAI

APRIL-29

     

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
 

11731

37 ° - 23° E

08 °  N

DKC

APRIL-30

      *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
NEWLY EMERGED >

11732

70 ° - 56° E

17 °  S

HSX

MAY- 01

             
NEWLY EMERGED >

11733

28 ° - 42° W

18 °  S

CSO/CRO

               

NEWLY SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

03

 

        INTERPLANETARY. REMARKS    

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

          PROTON FLUX

DECREASING

(APR 19:+) ( APRIL 21:- ) (APR 23: -) (APR 25:+) (APR 27: -)  

 

 

 

^CME Nr.

      ELECTRON FLUX LOW/ NORMAL

LATEST: APRIL- 19: FLUCTUATIONS AND RISING VALUES/ DROPPING SINCE APR- 25

 

internal remarks:

 

 

       

 

PROTON STORM ENDED DECREASING INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

ALatest: APRIL- 20. Solar activity seems again to make summersets with three large Coronal holes covering almost a third of the solar disc and many new sun spots and active regions. AR 11726 emerged on April 26, developed quickly and produced several C class PROTON flares with associated CMEs and an increase of introgeomagnetic proton flux on April 21 and 22

 
                 

 

 

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 28/2017Z from Region 1733 (S17W42) and it was accompanied by Type II (576 km/s) and Type IV radio emissions. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Apr, 30 Apr, 01 May).

 

 

   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

           

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130423- 25

int. CME Nr. >>

21/13

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

CENTRAL AMERICA

MULTIPLE CME CLUSTER LONGITUDES : 90° - 105° W

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

ELECTRON STORM

SUDDEN (THUNDER- STORMS

CALIFORNIA

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

EURASIA><AFRICA ><CARIBB. ><AMERICAS >< COCOS

 

ELECTRON STORM

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

SECONDARY REGIONS : CENTERED AT: 35° S- 55° N SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

28. APRIL 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

ALL AMERICAS

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

LONGITUDES: 15°W- 180° W

 

M 5.5- >6.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

LATENCY (preliminary)

 

INDUCED CURRENTS

ATLANTIC WEST

EURASIA >< AFRICA ><S & N- AMERICA

 

29. APRIL 2013

 

MINOR RADIO BLACKOUTS

PACIFIC LONGITUDES: 15°W- 180° W

 

M 5.5- >6.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

LATENCY (preliminary)

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) WESTERN EUROPE & AFRICA

EURASIA >< AFRICA ><S & N- AMERICA

 

30. APRIL 2013

 

ELECTRON STORM AFTER PROTON STORM

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS:

 

M 5.5- >6.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

LATENCY (preliminary)

 

OTHER:

GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES

GLOBAL *REGIONS> see definition below LONGITUDES : ALL

 

 
 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES

ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: STRONGER QUAKES UNLIKELY   INFLUENCES> ACTIVE ELECTRONS PROTON INFLUENCE

 

TECTONICS

HEATING UP (AFTER CME IMPACT COOLING DOWN (LATENCY/ ENDING) UNCERTAIN    

 

EFFECTING AS > INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS (PROTONS)  
        * note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated  

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

 

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

QUIET

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

UNSETTLED

 

X RAY EVENT

NONE

NONE

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR RADIO EMISSIONS NONE NONE

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS:

NONE NONE  

 

MAJOR STORM

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE NONE  
   

SOLAR STORMS:

SOLAR STORMS ARE INTENSIVE PARTICLE EMISSIONS

 

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (PROT.)

 

> 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS

> 10000 pfu.

> 10000 pfu.)

   

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

 

2 MeV ELECTRONS

> 1000 pfu

+/- 1000 pfu

 

EFFECTIVE PROTONS

      >10 MeV PROTONS +/- 01 pfu < 10 pfu .  

internal remarks:

   

 

NEUTRONS- P/E SYNTHESIS > - < 4% RISING < 5% DROPPING < siginificant changes only (no alerts)

 

                 

APRIL 16. 2013: Strong earthquakes happen regularly immidiately during/ after Proton Storms (those themselves likely are also caused by kinds of solar quakes) However, this time I I lifted my Earthquake alert too early ( was corrected today).. The current situation is similar to the many massive earthquakes those followed the much stronger proton events after November 2004 and prior to March- 11- 2011, when stronger earthquake activity continued for weeks- after March 11 2011 even for month . But - due to the lower intensity and duration of the proton storm on April 11- 12- 2013 earthquake magnitudes this time are at least lower and another quake higher than M 9.0 must likely NO MORE BE EXPECTED with this event. Otherwise - the current earthquake happen on land and not offshore, thus the direct damge is much higher .

 

 

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM * compared to " normal" values INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 466 km/s at 27/2157Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 28/1238Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 28/1249Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2698 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (29 Apr, 01 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (30 Apr)

 

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

APRIL

 

DAY:

27

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 

      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS >  

 

EPICENTER/ MAP TSUNAMI WARNINGS    
Note:, as earthquake data are oftenly revised the next day by EMSC,this section will mostly be completed later this day . ! click here for MEDIA report ISSUED AT:   CANCELLED:  

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS > FOR REGIONS:  

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.1 - TARAPACA, CHILE - 2013-04-27 21:51:30 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

18.22 S ; 69.41 W

DEPTH >

112 km

WAVE/HEIGHT   FREQUENCY  

 

 

                  note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!  
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0):

 

REGION INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES/ INDIA

FREQUENT

"A"

MAP

01

EURASIA >< / INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.0 - PAPUA, INDONESIA - 2013-04-27 23:31:11 UTC  

KAMCHATKA PENINSULA/ KURIL ISLANDS / JAPAN

FREQUENT

"B"

MAP

01

N-AMERICA >< EURASIA >< PACIFIC><PHIL. M 5.0 - VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION - 2013-04-27 19:51:39 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  
             
                       

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for may< volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 

         

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
SOURCES>> NASA/ GOES EUMETSAT METEOSAT (EUROPE)

NOAA/ Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Center

METEOALARM

usno.navy.mil NOAA  
                     

VARIOUS REPORTS:_

                   
                           
                   
       
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

100

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

417-564

FLARES >

C

16

 

CH 567

0- 30° N

GROWING

APR- 26- 2013

APR. 29

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

127.0

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 8.4

 

M

 

 

CH 566

T- EQU.

CLOSING

APR- 17- 2013

APR. 21- 23

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

06

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

55-105

Proton infl.

X

 

 

CH UNN.

> 60° SOUTH

GROWING AGAIN

APR- 15- 2013

APR 18

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

           

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS> NONE  
rotated out(APR 20)>

11721

       

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 

rotating out

11722

82 ° - 96° W

20 °  S

CAO/ BXO

APRIL- 14

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (EVOLUTION) :

 

rotzated out >

11723

                ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>>

INCREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
faded( APR 20)

11724

04 ° - 18° W

20 °  S

            LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

unclear fluctuation

  < LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)  
faded (APR 21)

11725

72 ° - 68° W

09 °  N

   

 

 

 

  LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130213

20130220

 
ROTATING OUT>

11726

84° - 98° W

12 °  N

EKC/ CAO

       

 

       

 

 

11727

39 ° 53° W

25 °  N

AXX/ HRX

         

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
 

11728

27° - 13° E

21 °  N

HSX /ESO

APRIL 29

     

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
faded(APR26)

11729

34 ° - 48° W

25 °  N

 

 

      *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
 

11730

18 ° - 04° E

18 °  S

DAO/ DSI

APRIL-29

             
NEWLY EMERGED >

11731

50 ° - 36° E

08 °  N

DKC

APRIL-29

             

NEWLY SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

07

 

        INTERPLANETARY. REMARKS    

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

          PROTON FLUX

FLUCTUATING

(APR 19:+) ( APRIL 21:- ) (APR 23: -) (APR 25:+) (APR 27: -)  

 

 

 

^CME Nr.

      ELECTRON FLUX LOW/ NORMAL

LATEST: APRIL- 19: FLUCTUATIONS AND RISING VALUES/ DROPPING SINCE APR- 25

 

internal remarks:

 

 

       

 

PROTON STORM ENDED DECREASING INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

 

 
                 

 

 

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 26/2225Z from Region 1726 (N13W93). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Apr, 29 Apr, 30 Apr).

 

 

   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

           

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130423- 25

int. CME Nr. >>

21/13

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

CENTRAL AMERICA

MULTIPLE CME CLUSTER LONGITUDES : 90° - 105° W

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

ELECTRON STORM

SUDDEN (THUNDER- STORMS

CALIFORNIA

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

EURASIA><AFRICA ><CARIBB. ><AMERICAS >< COCOS

 

ELECTRON STORM

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

SECONDARY REGIONS : CENTERED AT: 35° S- 55° N SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

27. APRIL 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

ALL AMERICAS

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

LONGITUDES: 15°W- 180° W

 

M 5.5- >6.5 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

2-3 ( POSSIBLE!)

 

INDUCED CURRENTS

ATLANTIC WEST

EURASIA >< AFRICA ><S & N- AMERICA

 

28. APRIL 2013

 

MINOR RADIO BLACKOUTS

PACIFIC LONGITUDES: 15°W- 180° W

 

M 5.5- >6.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

LATENCY (preliminary)

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) WESTERN EUROPE & AFRICA

EURASIA >< AFRICA ><S & N- AMERICA

 

29. APRIL 2013

 

ELECTRON STORM AFTER PROTON STORM

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS:

 

M 5.5- >6.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

LATENCY (preliminary)

 

OTHER:

GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES

GLOBAL *REGIONS> see definition below LONGITUDES : ALL

 

 
 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES

ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: STRONGER QUAKES UNLIKELY   INFLUENCES> ACTIVE ELECTRONS PROTON INFLUENCE

 

TECTONICS

HEATING UP (AFTER CME IMPACT COOLING DOWN (LATENCY/ ENDING) UNCERTAIN    

 

EFFECTING AS > INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS (PROTONS)  
           

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

introgeomagnetic PROTON FLUX

 

geomagnetic field density still on elavated levels- further quakes> M 6.0 likely

 

QUIET

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 

X RAY EVENT > M 5.0

NONE

NONE

 

MAJOR STORM  

RADIO BLACKOUTS:

NONE NONE    

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE NONE  

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (PROT.)

 

SOLAR STORMS:

SOLAR STORMS ARE INTENSIVE PARTICLE EMISSIONS

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

 

> 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS

> 10000 pfu.

> 10000 pfu.)

   

 

2 MeV ELECTRONS

+/- 1000 pfu fluctuating

> 100 pfu fluctuating

 

 

internal remarks:

^The first CME from the events on APRIL 21 seems to have arrived °

Proton flux is decreasing by and by ^

 

>10 MeV PROTONS +/- 01 pfu < 10 pfu .  
        NEUTRONS- P/E SYNTHESIS > - < 4% RISING < 5% DROPPING < siginificant changes only (no alerts)  

APRIL 16. 2013: Strong earthquakes happen regularly immidiately during/ after Proton Storms (those themselves likely are also caused by kinds of solar quakes) However, this time I I lifted my Earthquake alert too early ( was corrected today).. The current situation is similar to the masny massive earthquakes those followed the much stronger proton events after November 2004 and prior to March- 11- 2011, when stronger earthquake activity continued for weeks- after March 11 2011 even for month . But - due to the loweder intensity and duration of the proton storm on April 11- 12- 2013 earthquake magnitudes this time are at least lower and another quake higher than M 9.0 must likely NO MORE BE EXPECTED with this event. Otherwise - the current earthquake happen on land and not offshore, thus the direct damge is much higher .

APRIL 15- 23:30- another but MINOR CME arrived form a filament eruption observed on April- 12

 

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM * compared to " normal" values INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed started the period near 600 km/s and slowly decreased to near 490 km/s by the end of the period. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 26/2141Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 26/2300Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2922 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (28 Apr, 29 Apr, 30 Apr).

 

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

APRIL

 

DAY:

26

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 

      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS >  

 

EPICENTER/ MAP TSUNAMI WARNINGS    
Note:, as earthquake data are oftenly revised the next day by EMSC,this section will mostly be completed later this day . ! click here for MEDIA report ISSUED AT:   CANCELLED:  

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS > FOR REGIONS:  

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 6.2 - KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION - 2013-04-26 06:53:29 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

28.69 S ; 178.78 W

DEPTH >

350 km

WAVE/HEIGHT   FREQUENCY  

 

 

                  note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!  
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0):

 

CANADA, ALASKA/ (CASCADIAN SZ)

SOMETIMES

"C"

MAP

01

NORTH-AMERICA ><EXPLORER PLATE M 5.0 - ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS. - 2013-04-26 03:15:48 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  
             
                       

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for may< volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 

Volcano activity of April 26, 2013 – Update : Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

         

20130426

report by:

earthquake-report  

There was no activity update yet this week by the global volcanism program- report is taken from earthquake-report:

Update Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia :

INGEOMINAS scientists took advantage of a break in the weather to conduct an observation flight over Nevado Del Ruiz volcano (Colombia) today.  Ruiz appears to be desing vigorously in concert with recent strong seismicity affecting the volcano.  Although volcano-tectonic earthquakes have eased at the volcano, continuous volcanic tremor seems to be re-establishing itself now (station OLLZ).

KVERT reported no changes in eruptive/seismic behavior overnight at the five active Kamchatkan volcanoes:  Tolbachik, Sheveluch, Kizimen, Bezymianny and Karymsky.  Moderate seismicity continues to affect Gorely volcano which displays a high level of hydrothermal activity.

Another pulse of seismicity is occurring at this time at Newberry volcano (Cascade Range) (OR) (station CPCO).  The periodicity of the small earthquake episodes suggests they are related to geothermal exploration occurring on the west flank of the volcano, but the events are only well recorded at the Central Pumice Cone (CPCO) seismometer some 5 – 10 km east of where the exploration is taking place.  USGS reported on natural seismicity occurring near/beneath the Central Pumice Cone last week.

All three Guatemalan volcanoes are showing a little more life today.  Strombolian explosions are heard up to 3 km distant from Pacaya volcano (station PCG), a new lava flow is descending from the summit of Fuegovolcano (station FG3), generating small hot avalanches.  Fuego is also producing “locomotive-like” sounds and depositing fine ash up to 8 km from the volcano.  At Santiaguito Dome Complex (Santa Maria volcano) (station STG3), three explosions were heard this morning.

Seismicity remains high at both San Cristobal (Nicaragua) (station CRIN) and Telica volcano (station TELN) today.  At San Cristobal, continuous volcanic tremor has held at an elevated level for the past week, while at Telica, numerous volcanic earthquakes have increased in magnitude during the past day.  INETER reports no changes in other parameters which might indicate a coming eruption at either volcano.  Volcanic tremor atMasaya volcano (station MASN) has still not settled either.

Volcanic earthquakes have decreased at San Miguel volcano (El Salvador) (station VSM) overnight, but volcanic tremor remains elevated there.  Telemetry interference also complicates the seismic record at the volcano.

Small earthquakes are numerous at both Sotara (Colombia) (station SOSO) and Galeras (station CUVZ) volcanoes again today...read more...

 
         

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
SOURCES>> NASA/ GOES EUMETSAT METEOSAT (EUROPE)

NOAA/ Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Center

METEOALARM

usno.navy.mil NOAA  
                     

VARIOUS REPORTS:_

                   
                           
                   
       
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

104

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

489-591

FLARES >

C

11

 

CH 566

T- EQU.

DISSOLVING

APR- 17- 2013

APR. 21- 23

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

121.9

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 6.9

 

M

 

 

CH UNN.

> 60° SOUTH

DISSOLVING

APR- 15- 2013

APR 18

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

15

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

30- 110 nT

 

X

 

 

         

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

           

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS> NONE  
rotated out(APR 20)>

11721

       

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 

rotating out

11722

82 ° - 96° W

20 °  S

CAO/ BXO

APRIL- 14

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (EVOLUTION) :

 

rotzated out >

11723

                ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>>

INCREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
faded( APR 20)

11724

04 ° - 18° W

20 °  S

            LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

unclear fluctuation

  < LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)  
faded (APR 21)

11725

72 ° - 68° W

09 °  N

   

 

 

 

  LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130213

20130220

 
ROTATING OUT>

11726

76° - 90° W

12 °  N

         

 

       

 

 

11727

24 ° 38° W

25 °  N

 

APRIL-24

       

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
 

11728

39° - 25° E

21 °  N

 

APRIL 29

     

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
 

11729

34 ° - 48° W

25 °  N

 

 

      *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
 

11730

33 ° - 19° E

18 °  S

 

APRIL-29

             
NEWLY EMERGED >

11731

64 ° - 50° E

08 °  N

 

APRIL-29

             

NEWLY SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

05

 

        INTERPLANETARY. REMARKS    

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

          PROTON FLUX

INCREASING

INCREASE: FEB 19 / APRIL 21 after 06 UTC( DROPPINF SINCE APE 23/ 06 UTC/ RISING ON APR 25/ 18 UTC

 

 

 

 

^CME Nr.

      ELECTRON FLUX LOW/ NORMAL

LATEST: APRIL- 19: FLUCTUATIONS AND RISING VALUES (ONGOING)

 

internal remarks:

 

 

       

 

PROTON STORM ENDED DECREASING INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

ALatest: APRIL- 20. Solar activity seems again to make summersets with three large Coronal holes covering almost a third of the solar disc and many new sun spots and active regions. AR 11726 emerged on April 26, developed quickly and produced several C class PROTON flares with associated CMEs and an increase of introgeomagnetic proton flux on April 21 and 22

 
                 

 

 

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 26/0627Z from Region 1726 (N13W93). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (27 Apr) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (28 Apr, 29 Apr).

 

 

   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

           

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130423- 25

int. CME Nr. >>

21/13

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

CENTRAL AMERICA

MULTIPLE CME CLUSTER LONGITUDES : 90° - 105° W

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

ELECTRON STORM

SUDDEN (THUNDER- STORMS

CALIFORNIA

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

EURASIA><AFRICA ><CARIBB. ><AMERICAS >< COCOS

 

CME CLUSTER IMPACT

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

SECONDARY REGIONS : CENTERED AT: 35° S- 55° N SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

26 APRIL 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

ALL AMERICAS

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

LONGITUDES: 15°W- 180° W

 

M 5.5- >7.0/ 9.0 CME ARRIVAL!

3 of 3 ( POSSIBLE!)

 

INDUCED CURRENTS

ATLANTIC WEST

EURASIA >< AFRICA ><S & N- AMERICA

 

27. APRIL 2013

 

MINOR RADIO BLACKOUTS

PACIFIC LONGITUDES: 15°W- 180° W

 

M 5.5- >6.5 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

2-3 ( POSSIBLE!)

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) WESTERN EUROPE & AFRICA

EURASIA >< AFRICA ><S & N- AMERICA

 

28. APRIL 2013

 

ELECTRON STORM AFTER PROTON STORM

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS:

 

YET NO FORECAST POSSIBLE

LATENCY (preliminary)

 

OTHER:

GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES

GLOBAL *REGIONS> see definition below LONGITUDES : ALL

 

 
 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES

ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: STRONGER QUAKES UNLIKELY   INFLUENCES> ACTIVE ELECTRONS PROTON INFLUENCE

 

TECTONICS

HEATING UP (AFTER CME IMPACT COOLING DOWN (LATENCY/ ENDING) UNCERTAIN    

 

EFFECTING AS > INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS (PROTONS)  
           

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

introgeomagnetic PROTON FLUX

 

geomagnetic field density still on elavated levels- further quakes> M 6.0 likely

 

QUIET

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 

X RAY EVENT > M 5.0

NONE

NONE

 

    RADIO EMISSIONS NONE NONE    
MAJOR STORM  

RADIO BLACKOUTS:

NONE NONE    

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

G 1 NONE  

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (PROT.)

 

SOLAR STORMS:

SOLAR STORMS ARE INTENSIVE PARTICLE EMISSIONS

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

 

> 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS

> 10000 pfu.(CME IMPACT)

< 1000 pfu (CME)

   

 

2 MeV ELECTRONS

> 100 pfu fluctuating (CME IMPACT)

< 100 pfu.(CME)

 

 

internal remarks:

^The first CME from the events on APRIL 21 seems to have arrived °

Proton flux is decreasing by and by ^

 

>10 MeV PROTONS +/- 01 pfu < 10 pfu .  
        NEUTRONS- P/E SYNTHESIS > - 6% DROPPING < 5% DROPPING < siginificant changes only (no alerts)  

APRIL 16. 2013: Strong earthquakes happen regularly immidiately during/ after Proton Storms (those themselves likely are also caused by kinds of solar quakes) However, this time I I lifted my Earthquake alert too early ( was corrected today).. The current situation is similar to the masny massive earthquakes those followed the much stronger proton events after November 2004 and prior to March- 11- 2011, when stronger earthquake activity continued for weeks- after March 11 2011 even for month . But - due to the loweder intensity and duration of the proton storm on April 11- 12- 2013 earthquake magnitudes this time are at least lower and another quake higher than M 9.0 must likely NO MORE BE EXPECTED with this event. Otherwise - the current earthquake happen on land and not offshore, thus the direct damge is much higher .

APRIL 15- 23:30- another but MINOR CME arrived form a filament eruption observed on April- 12

 

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM * compared to " normal" values INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 622 km/s at 26/1426Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 26/0341Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 26/0233Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 843 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Apr), and quiet levels on days two and three (28 Apr, 29 Apr) with a slight chance for active conditions decreasing over the next three days. Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (27 Apr).

 

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

APRIL

 

DAY:

25

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 

      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS >  

 

EPICENTER/ MAP TSUNAMI WARNINGS    
Note:, as earthquake data are oftenly revised the next day by EMSC,this section will mostly be completed later this day . ! click here for MEDIA report ISSUED AT:   CANCELLED:  

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS > FOR REGIONS:  

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.1 - KURIL ISLANDS - 2013-04-25 22:32:53 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

50.19 N ; 157.56 E

DEPTH >

30 km

WAVE/HEIGHT   FREQUENCY  

 

 

                  note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!  
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0):

 

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  
             
                       

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for may< volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 

         

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
SOURCES>> NASA/ GOES EUMETSAT METEOSAT (EUROPE)

NOAA/ Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Center

METEOALARM

usno.navy.mil NOAA  
                     

VARIOUS REPORTS:_

                   
                           
                   
       
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

93

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

420-609

FLARES >

C

14

 

CH 566

T- EQU.

DISSOLVING

APR- 17- 2013

APR. 21- 23

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

119.2

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 7.3

 

M

 

 

CH UNN.

> 60° SOUTH

DISSOLVING

APR- 15- 2013

APR 18

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

08

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

49- 115 nT

 

X

 

 

         

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

           

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS> NONE  
faded (APR 12)

11720

46 °- 60° W

10 °  N

 

 

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 

rotated out(APR 20)>

11721

       

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (EVOLUTION) :

 

rotating out

11722

82 ° - 96° W

20 °  S

CAO/ BXO

APRIL- 14

        ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>>

INCREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
most active >

11723

74 ° - 88° W

18 °  S

            LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

unclear fluctuation

  < LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)  
faded( APR 20)

11724

04 ° - 18° W

20 °  S

   

 

 

 

  LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130213

20130220

 
faded (APR 21)

11725

72 ° - 68° W

09 °  N

         

 

       

 

 

11726

64° - 76° W

12 °  N

           

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
 

11727

10 ° 24° W

25 °  N

 

APRIL-24

     

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
 

11728

53° - 39° E

21 °  N

 

APRIL 29

      *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
 

11729

22 ° - 36° W

25 °  N

 

 

             
NEWLY EMERGED >

11730

47 ° - 33° E

18 °  S

 

APRIL-29

             

NEWLY SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

05

 

        INTERPLANETARY. REMARKS    

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

          PROTON FLUX

INCREASING

INCREASE: FEB 19 / APRIL 21 after 06 UTC( DROPPING SINCE APE 23/ 06 UTC

 

 

 

 

^CME Nr.

      ELECTRON FLUX LOW/ NORMAL

LATEST: APRIL- 19: FLUCTUATIONS AND RISING VALUES (ONGOING)

 

internal remarks:

 

 

       

 

PROTON STORM ENDED DECREASING INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

ALatest: APRIL- 20. Solar activity seems again to make summersets with three large Coronal holes covering almost a third of the solar disc and many new sun spots and active regions. AR 11726 emerged on April 26, developed quickly and produced several C class PROTON flares with associated CMEs and an increase of introgeomagnetic proton flux on April 21 and 22

 
                 

 

 

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 25/1940Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Apr, 27 Apr, 28 Apr).

 

 

   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

           

 

3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT:

 

EXPLANATIONS>

Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.

Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./

orange= medium impact

Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME. Colors from orange to light red mark GRADUAL IMPACTS OF MULTIPLE CMEs CLUSTERS.

 

HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST>

INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions!

STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS

The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER a LATENCY period due to CME IMPACT on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES within the RED until the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Read "latency remarks"

 

REGIONS

REGION "A"

REGION "B"

REGION "C"

REGION" D"

REGION "E"

REGION "F"

RELATED CME EVENT

 

REGIONS COVERED BY LATEST CME IMPACT>

EASTERN EURASIA- CHINA- INDONESIA-WESTERN PACIFIC PHILIPPINES--AUSTRALIA WEST ALEUT./ KAMCHATKA- JAPAN/EAST- AUSTRALIA/ (EAST), PNG. NZL WESTERN USA+ WEST COAST- EASTERN PACIFIC- CANADA-ALASKA

WESTERN ATLANTIC/ PANAMERICA/CALIFORNIA CENTRAL USA/ SOUTH - AMERICA

CENTRAL (WEST) EUROPE/ AFRICA, EASTERN ATLANTIC/ CANARIES/ ICELAND ETC.

INDIA & INDIAN OCEAN- CENTR: EURASIA, AFRICA (EAST), ARABIA ASIA MINOR

CME CLUSTER FROM AR 11726- APRIL 20- 23

 

RELATED TECTONIC BOUNDARIES>

WESTERN PACIFIC< EAST EURASIA>< INDO-AUSTRALIA

NORTH AMERICA (W) >< EURASIA (E) ><PACIFIC (E)

NORTH AMERICA/ incl. Microplates ><PACIFIC

AFRICA >< CARRIBEAN >< SOUTH AMERIA >< NASCA>< COCOS

EURASIA <> N-AMERICA/WESTCARRIBEAN ><AFRICA

EURASIA><ARABIA ><INDO-AUSTRALIA

associated to PROTON STORM (> 10 <100 pfu)

 

UTC TIME ZONES >

..

.......

...

...

......

..

ARRIVAL DATE: APR 23 /10 UTC- APRIL 25

 

LONGITUDES>

120° E- 90° E

135° E- 180° - 135° W

90° W- 135° W

45° W- 90° W

45° W - 00° W- 45° E

45° E- 90° E

Nr. 21/ 13

 

     

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130423- 25

int. CME Nr. >>

21/13

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

CENTRAL AMERICA

MULTIPLE CME CLUSTER LONGITUDES : 90° - 105° W

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

active ElECTRONS

SUDDEN (THUNDER- STORMS

CALIFORNIA

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

EURASIA><AFRICA ><CARIBB. ><AMERICAS >< COCOS

 

CME CLUSTER IMPACT

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

SECONDARY REGIONS :

APPR. 15° S- 95° N

SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

25 APRIL 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

ALL AMERICAS

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

LONGITUDES: 15°W- 180° W

 

M 5.5- >7.0/ 9.0 CME ARRIVAL!

3 of 3 ( POSSIBLE!)

 

INDUCED CURRENTS

ATLANTIC WEST

EURASIA >< AFRICA ><S & N- AMERICA

 

26. APRIL 2013

 

MINOR RADIO BLACKOUTS

PACIFIC LONGITUDES: 15°W- 180° W

 

M 5.5- >7.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

2-3 ( POSSIBLE!)

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) WESTERN EUROPE & AFRICA

EURASIA >< AFRICA ><S & N- AMERICA

 

27. APRIL 2013

 

ELECTRON STORM AFTER PROTON STORM

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS:

 

YET NO FORECAST POSSIBLE

LATENCY (preliminary)

 

OTHERS:

GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES

GLOBAL *REGIONS> see definition below LONGITUDES : ALL

 

 
 

CME EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES

ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: STRONGER QUAKES UNLIKELY   INFLUENCES> ACTIVE ELECTRONS PROTON INFLUENCE

 

TECTONICS

HEATING UP (AFTER CME IMPACT COOLING DOWN (LATENCY/ ENDING) UNCERTAIN    

 

EFFECTING AS > INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS (PROTONS)  
           

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

introgeomagnetic PROTON FLUX

 

geomagnetic field density still on elavated levels- further quakes> M 6.0 likely

 

QUIET

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 

X RAY EVENT > M 5.0

NONE

NONE

 

MAJOR STORM  

RADIO BLACKOUTS:

NONE NONE    

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

G 1 NONE  

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (PROT.)

 

SOLAR STORMS:

SOLAR STORMS ARE INTENSIVE PARTICLE EMISSIONS

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

 

> 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS

< 1000 pfu.(CME IMPACT)

< 1000 pfu (CME)

   

 

2 MeV ELECTRONS

< 10 pfu fluctuating (CME IMPACT)

< 100 pfu.(CME)

 

 

internal remarks:

^The first CME from the events on APRIL 21 seems to have arrived °

Proton flux is decreasing by and by ^

 

>10 MeV PROTONS +/- 01 pfu < 10 pfu .  
        NEUTRONS- P/E SYNTHESIS > - 6% DROPPING < 5% DROPPING < siginificant changes only (no alerts)  

APRIL 16. 2013: Strong earthquakes happen regularly immidiately during/ after Proton Storms (those themselves likely are also caused by kinds of solar quakes) However, this time I I lifted my Earthquake alert too early ( was corrected today).. The current situation is similar to the masny massive earthquakes those followed the much stronger proton events after November 2004 and prior to March- 11- 2011, when stronger earthquake activity continued for weeks- after March 11 2011 even for month . But - due to the loweder intensity and duration of the proton storm on April 11- 12- 2013 earthquake magnitudes this time are at least lower and another quake higher than M 9.0 must likely NO MORE BE EXPECTED with this event. Otherwise - the current earthquake happen on land and not offshore, thus the direct damge is much higher .

APRIL 15- 23:30- another but MINOR CME arrived form a filament eruption observed on April- 12

 

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM * compared to " normal" values INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed at ACE reached a peak of 619 km/s at 25/2014Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 24/2135Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 24/2109Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak flux of 157 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Apr) and quiet levels on days two and three (27 Apr, 28 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one through three (26-28 Apr)..

 

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

APRIL

 

DAY:

24

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 

      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS >  

 

EPICENTER/ MAP TSUNAMI WARNINGS    
Note:, as earthquake data are oftenly revised the next day by EMSC,this section will mostly be completed later this day . ! click here for MEDIA report ISSUED AT:   CANCELLED:  

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS > FOR REGIONS:  

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.5 - HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN - 2013-04-24 09:25:30 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

34.56 N ; 70.26 E

DEPTH >

60 km

WAVE/HEIGHT   FREQUENCY  

 

 

                  note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!  
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0):

 

            M 5.2 - EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA - 2013-04-24 22:10:32 UTC  
            M 5.0 - SOLOMON ISLANDS - 2013-04-24 14:07:02 UTC  
            M 4.7 - SOUTHERN IRAN - 2013-04-24 06:05:01 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  

 

           
           

 

 
                 
   
   
   
   
STEREO-"AHEAD" STEREO-"AHEAD" STEREO-"AHEAD" STEREO-"AHEAD" SDO /AIA-comp SDO /AIA-comp SoHO/ LASCO C 3      
             
                       

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for may< volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 

         

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
SOURCES>> NASA/ GOES EUMETSAT METEOSAT (EUROPE)

NOAA/ Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Center

METEOALARM

usno.navy.mil NOAA  

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

appr. GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 
                       
                     

VARIOUS REPORTS:_

                   
                           
M 5.5 - HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN -              

20130324

report by:

thewatchers.adorraeli.  

Deadly earthquake and flash floods hit northern Afghanistan

Pakistan Meteorological Department is reporting M 6.2 at depth of 72 km. GDACS reported that this earthquake can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the magnitude and the affected population and their vulnerability. There are 7 830 000 people living within 100 km. Hundreds of homes collapsed across Kunar and Nangarhar. By unofficial numbers there were 25 people killed and 120 are reportedly injured (20:30 UTC). It is past midnight in Afghanistan now (UTC +4:30h), and many people are still believed to be under the rubble. New reports should come about in the morning.

 

                   
       
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

92

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

313-515

FLARES >

C

11

 

CH 566

T- EQU.

DISSOLVING

APR- 17- 2013

APR. 21- 23

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

114.7

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 5.6

 

M

 

 

CH UNN.

> 60° SOUTH

DISSOLVING

APR- 15- 2013

APR 18

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

20

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

25- 125

PROTON infl.

X

 

 

         

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

           

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS> NONE  
rotated out >

11719

   
 

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 

faded (APR 12)

11720

46 °- 60° W

10 °  N

 

 

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (EVOLUTION) :

 

rotated out(APR 20)>

11721

                ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>>

INCREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
rotating out

11722

82 ° - 96° W

20 °  S

CAO/ BXO

APRIL- 14

        LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

unclear fluctuation

  < LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)  
most active >

11723

74 ° - 88° W

18 °  S

CSO

APRIL- 13

 

 

 

  LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130213

20130220

 
faded( APR 20)

11724

04 ° - 18° W

20 °  S

HRX/ BXO

APRIL- 14

     

 

       

 

faded (APR 21)

11725

72 ° - 68° W

09 °  N

CRO

APRIL- 14

       

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
 

11726

50° - 64° W

12 °  N

EKI/ FKC

APRIL 20

     

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
 

11727

02 ° E- 12° W

25 °  N

CAO/ EAO

APRIL-24

      *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
NEWLY EMERGED >

11728

66° - 52° E

21 °  N

CSO

APRIL 29

             
NEWLY EMERGED >

11729

08 ° - 22° W

25 °  N

BXO

APRIL-24

             

NEWLY SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

05

 

        INTERPLANETARY. REMARKS    

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

          PROTON FLUX

INCREASING

INCREASE: FEB 19 / APRIL 21 after 06 UTC( DROPPINF SINCE APE 23/ 06 UTC

 

 

 

 

^CME Nr.

      ELECTRON FLUX LOW/ NORMAL

LATEST: APRIL- 19: FLUCTUATIONS AND RISING VALUES (ONGOING)

 

internal remarks:

 

 

       

 

PROTON STORM ENDED DECREASING INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

ALatest: APRIL- 20. Solar activity seems again to make summersets with three large Coronal holes covering almost a third of the solar disc and many new sun spots and active regions. AR 11726 emerged on April 26, developed quickly and produced several C class PROTON flares with associated CMEs and an increase of introgeomagnetic proton flux on April 21 and 22

 
                 

 

 

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 23/2325Z from Region 1726 (N13W49). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Apr, 26 Apr, 27 Apr).

 

 

   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

           

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

LDE/ 20130413- 14

int. CME Nr. >>

20 a- c/ 13

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

EUROPE & AFRICA/ WEST

MULTIPLE LDE CLUSTER LONGITUDES : 15° E- 135° W

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

PROTON STORM /SEVERAL APPROACHING CMES

SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS

ATLANTIC/ CANARIES

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

EURASIA><AFRICA ><AMERICAS

 

CME CLUSTER IMPACT

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

ALL AMERICAS

CENTRAL

EURASIA><AFRICA ><CARIBB. ><AMERICAS

 

24. APRIL 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

USA/ WEST &

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

CARIBBEAN ><S & N- AMERICA >>COCOS

 

M 5.5- >7.0/ 9.0 CME ARRIVAL!

3 of 3 ( POSSIBLE!)

 

INDUCED CURRENTS

SECONDARY REGIONS :

SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

25. APRIL 2013

 

MINOR RADIO BLACKOUTS

KAMCHATKA/ NZL LONGITUDES: 165°W- 135° E

 

M 5.5- >7.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

3 of 3 ( POSSIBLE!)

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) EASTERN PACIFIC

NASZA-PACIFIC- JUAN DE FUCA!

 

26. APRIL 2013

 

ELECTRON STORM AFTER PROTON STORM (expected begin: APRIL 19?

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS:

 

YET NO FORECAST POSSIBLE

LATENCY (preliminary)

 

OTHERS:

GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES

EURASIA EAST *REGIONS> see definition below LONGITUDES : 165° - 35° E

 

 
 

LATE CME EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES*

ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: STRONGER QUAKES POSSIBLE (PROTON STORM & CME)   INFLUENCES> ACTIVE ELECTRONS PROTON INFLUENCE

 

TECTONICS

HEATING UP (AFTER CME IMPACT COOLING DOWN (LATENCY/ ENDING) UNCERTAIN    

 

EFFECTING AS > INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS (PROTONS)  
           

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

introgeomagnetic PROTON FLUX

 

geomagnetic field density still on elavated levels- further quakes> M 6.0 likely

 

QUIET

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 

X RAY EVENT > M 5.0

NONE

NONE

 

MAJOR STORM  

RADIO BLACKOUTS:

NONE NONE    

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

G 1 NONE  

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (PROT.)

 

SOLAR STORMS:

SOLAR STORMS ARE INTENSIVE PARTICLE EMISSIONS

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

 

> 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS

< 1000 pfu.(CME IMPACT)

< 1000 pfu (CME)

   

 

2 MeV ELECTRONS

< 10 pfu fluctuating (CME IMPACT)

< 100 pfu.(CME)

 

 

internal remarks:

^The first CME from the events on APRIL 21 seems to have arrived °

Proton flux is decreasing by and by ^

 

>10 MeV PROTONS +/- 01 pfu < 10 pfu .  
        NEUTRONS- P/E SYNTHESIS > - 6% DROPPING < 5% DROPPING < siginificant changes only (no alerts)  

APRIL 16. 2013: Strong earthquakes happen regularly immidiately during/ after Proton Storms (those themselves likely are also caused by kinds of solar quakes) However, this time I I lifted my Earthquake alert too early ( was corrected today).. The current situation is similar to the masny massive earthquakes those followed the much stronger proton events after November 2004 and prior to March- 11- 2011, when stronger earthquake activity continued for weeks- after March 11 2011 even for month . But - due to the loweder intensity and duration of the proton storm on April 11- 12- 2013 earthquake magnitudes this time are at least lower and another quake higher than M 9.0 must likely NO MORE BE EXPECTED with this event. Otherwise - the current earthquake happen on land and not offshore, thus the direct damge is much higher .

APRIL 15- 23:30- another but MINOR CME arrived form a filament eruption observed on April- 12

 

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM * compared to " normal" values INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 483 km/s at 24/1927Z. Total IMF reached 23 nT at 24/0955Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -18 nT at 24/0927Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (25 Apr), quiet to active levels on day two (26 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (27 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (25 Apr, 26 Apr, 27 Apr).

 

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

APRIL

 

DAY:

23

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 

      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS >  

 

EPICENTER/ MAP TSUNAMI WARNINGS    
Note:, as earthquake data are oftenly revised the next day by EMSC,this section will mostly be completed later this day . ! click here for MEDIA report ISSUED AT:   CANCELLED:  

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS > FOR REGIONS:  

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 6.5 - NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G. - 2013-04-23 23:14:41 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

3.78 S ; 152.19 E

DEPTH >

10 km

WAVE/HEIGHT   FREQUENCY  

 

 

                  note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!  
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0):NONE

 

  << Three Years of SDO Images    

<< In the three years since it first provided images of the sun in the spring of 2010, NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) has had virtually unbroken coverage of the sun's rise toward solar maximum, the peak of solar activity in its regular 11-year cycle. This video shows those three years of the sun at a pace of two images per day. Each image is displayed for two frames at a 29.97 frame rate.

<< read more or load down HD version of this video at NASA.com
 
Comet ISON Meteor Shower >>>

April 19, 2013: Anticipation is building as Comet ISON plunges into the inner solar system for a close encounter with the sun in November 2013. Blasted at point-blank range by solar radiation, the sungrazer will likely become one of the finest comets in many years.

When NASA's Swift spacecraft observed the comet in January 2013, it was still near the orbit of Jupiter, but already very active. More than 112,000 pounds of dust were spewing from the comet's nucleus every minute....read more...

                       

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for may< volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 

         

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
SOURCES>> NASA/ GOES EUMETSAT METEOSAT (EUROPE)

NOAA/ Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Center

METEOALARM

usno.navy.mil NOAA  
                     

VARIOUS REPORTS:_

                   
                           
                   
       
               
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

95

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

270-338

FLARES >

C

11

 

CH 566

T- EQU.

DECAYING

APR- 17- 2013

APR. 21- 23

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

117.5

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 4.9

 

M

 

 

CH UNN.

> 60° SOUTH

GROWING

APR- 15- 2013

APR 18

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

05

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

40- 160 nT

proton influence

X

 

 

         

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

           

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS> NONE  
faded (APR 12)

11717

00° - 14° W

12 °  S

   

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 

rotated out >

11718

       

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (EVOLUTION) :

 

rotated out >

11719

   
          ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>>

INCREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
faded (APR 12)

11720

46 °- 60° W

10 °  N

 

 

        LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

unclear fluctuation

  < LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)  
rotated out(APR 20)>

11721

       

 

 

 

  LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130213

20130220

 
rotating out

11722

82 ° - 96° W

20 °  S

CAO/ BXO

APRIL- 14

     

 

       

 

most active >

11723

74 ° - 88° W

18 °  S

DAI/ CSO

APRIL- 13

       

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
faded( APR 20)

11724

04 ° - 18° W

20 °  S

HRX/ BXO

APRIL- 14

     

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
faded (APR 21)

11725

72 ° - 68° W

09 °  N

CRO

APRIL- 14

      *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
 

11726

36° - 50° W

12 °  N

DRO/ DAI

APRIL 20

             
 

11727

17 ° - 03° E

25 °  N

DAO

APRIL-23

             

NEWLY SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

05

 

        INTERPLANETARY. REMARKS    

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

          PROTON FLUX

INCREASING

INCREASE: FEB 19 and STRONGER INCREASE: APRIL 21 after 06 UTC

 

 

 

 

^CME Nr.

      ELECTRON FLUX LOW/ NORMAL

LATEST: APRIL- 19: FLUCTUATIONS AND RISING VALUES (ONGOING)

 

internal remarks:

 

 

       

 

PROTON STORM ENDED DECREASING INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

ALatest: APRIL- 20. Solar activity seems again to make summersets with three large Coronal holes covering almost a third of the solar disc and many new sun spots and active regions. AR 11726 emerged on April 26, developed quickly and produced several C class PROTON flares with associated CMEs and an increase of introgeomagnetic proton flux on April 21 and 22

 
                 

 

 

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 23/1414Z from Region 1726 (N13W49). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Apr, 25 Apr, 26 Apr).

 

 

 

                       

LATEST CME ARRIVAL

CME/ Nr.:

21/13

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

SEASONAL MAIN IMPACT LATITUDES:

60° N- 60° S

STRENGTH: 1-2  

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENT

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN/ UTC POLARITY: REL. MASS VALUE MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  

20130423 after 10 UTC

11726

22° - 36° W

12 °  N

multiple proton flares on Apr. 20- 22

20130420 after 22 UTC 07 UTC ongoing> 150 nT under p influence   10 UTC 14/ 18- 20 UTC

associated to Proton storm

ongoing CENTRAL ATLANTIC- US EAST COAST  
REMARKS: MULTIPLE CME CLUSTER ASSOCIATED TO PROTON STORM/ estimated IMPACT duration: APRIL 23- 25             EUROPE WEST /GLOBALLY  
MULTIPLE CME EVENTS ( CLUSTERS) AND LATENCY EFFECTS:
t  
CMEs/ APPROACHING:
   
LATENCIES >
     
                       
   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note,, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

           

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

LDE/ 20130413- 14

int. CME Nr. >>

20 a- c/ 13

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

EUROPE & AFRICA/ WEST

MULTIPLE LDE CLUSTER LONGITUDES : 15° E- 135° W

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

PROTON STORM /SEVERAL APPROACHING CMES

SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS

ATLANTIC/ CANARIES

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

EURASIA><AFRICA ><AMERICAS

 

CME ARRIVAL

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

ALL AMERICAS

CENTRAL

EURASIA><AFRICA ><CARIBB. ><AMERICAS

 

23. APRIL 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

USA/ WEST &

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

CARIBBEAN ><S & N- AMERICA >>COCOS

 

M 5.5- >7.0/ 9.0 CME ARRIVAL!

3 of 3 ( POSSIBLE!)

 

INDUCED CURRENTS

SECONDARY REGIONS :

SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

24. APRIL 2013

 

MINOR RADIO BLACKOUTS

KAMCHATKA/ NZL LONGITUDES: 165°W- 135° E

 

M 5.5- >7.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

3 of 3 ( POSSIBLE!)

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) EASTERN PACIFIC

NASZA-PACIFIC- JUAN DE FUCA!

 

25. APRIL 2013

 

ELECTRON STORM AFTER PROTON STORM (expected begin: APRIL 19?

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS:

 

YET NO FORECAST POSSIBLE

LATENCY (preliminary)

 

OTHERS:

GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES

EURASIA EAST *REGIONS> see definition below LONGITUDES : 165° - 35° E

 

 
 

LATE CME EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES*

ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: STRONGER QUAKES POSSIBLE (PROTON STORM & CME)   INFLUENCES> ACTIVE ELECTRONS PROTON INFLUENCE

 

TECTONICS

HEATING UP (AFTER CME IMPACT COOLING DOWN (LATENCY/ ENDING) UNCERTAIN    

 

EFFECTING AS > INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS (PROTONS)  
           

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

introgeomagnetic PROTON FLUX

 

geomagnetic field density still on elavated levels- further quakes> M 6.0 likely

 

QUIET

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 

X RAY EVENT > M 5.0

NONE

NONE

 

    RADIO EMISSIONS TPYE II TYPE II  
MAJOR STORM  

RADIO BLACKOUTS:

NONE NONE    

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE NONE  

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (PROT.)

 

SOLAR STORMS:

SOLAR STORMS ARE INTENSIVE PARTICLE EMISSIONS

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

 

> 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS

< 1000 pfu.(CME IMPACT)

+/- 1000 pfu

   

 

2 MeV ELECTRONS

< 100 pfu.(dCME IMPACT)

< 100 pfu.(rising)

 

 

internal remarks:

^The first CME from the events on APRIL 21 seems to have arrived °

Proton flux is decreasingb by and by ^

 

>10 MeV PROTONS < 10 pfu R1 > 10 pfu .  
        NEUTRONS- P/E SYNTHESIS DROPPING ( > - 5%) DROPPING < siginificant changes only (no alerts)  

APRIL 16. 2013: Strong earthquakes happen regularly immidiately during/ after Proton Storms (those themselves likely are also caused by kinds of solar quakes) However, this time I I lifted my Earthquake alert too early ( was corrected today).. The current situation is similar to the masny massive earthquakes those followed the much stronger proton events after November 2004 and prior to March- 11- 2011, when stronger earthquake activity continued for weeks- after March 11 2011 even for month . But - due to the loweder intensity and duration of the proton storm on April 11- 12- 2013 earthquake magnitudes this time are at least lower and another quake higher than M 9.0 must likely NO MORE BE EXPECTED with this event. Otherwise - the current earthquake happen on land and not offshore, thus the direct damge is much higher .

APRIL 15- 23:30- another but MINOR CME arrived fropm a filament eruption observed on April- 12

 

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM * compared to " normal" values INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 352 km/s at 23/1951Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 23/1521Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 23/1900Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (24 Apr, 26 Apr) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (25 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (24 Apr, 25 Apr, 26 Apr).

 

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

APRIL

 

DAY:

22

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 

      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS >  

 

EPICENTER/ MAP TSUNAMI WARNINGS    
Note:, as earthquake data are oftenly revised the next day by EMSC,this section will mostly be completed later this day . ! click here for MEDIA report ISSUED AT:   CANCELLED:  

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS > FOR REGIONS:  

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 6.1 - MICHOACAN, MEXICO - 2013-04-22 01:16:38 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

18.23 N ; 102.05 W

DEPTH >

70 km

WAVE/HEIGHT   FREQUENCY  

 

 

                  note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!  
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0):

 

CANADA, ALASKA/ (CASCADIAN SZ)RAT ISLANDS INCL AFTERQUAKES

LIKELY VOLCANIC

"C"

MAP

08

NORTH-AMERICA ><EXPLORER PLATE M 5.6 - RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS - 2013-04-22 04:36:36 UTC  

CONTINENTAL EURASIA EAST (ASIAN PART)

SELDOM

"E"/"F

MAP

01

EURASIA>< AFRICA >>N-AMERICA M 5.1 - EASTERN NEI MONGOL, CHINA - 2013-04-22 09:11:55 UTC  

KAMCHATKA PENINSULA/ KURIL ISLANDS / JAPAN

FREQUENT

"B"

MAP

02

N-AMERICA >< EURASIA >< PACIFIC><PHIL. M 5.0 - EAST OF KURIL ISLANDS - 2013-04-22 13:16:18 UTC  

PACIFIC/MAINLY WEST/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC.

FREQUENT

"B"

MAP

02

PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.2 - KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION - 2013-04-22 23:40:50 UTC  

WATCHING: EXTRAORDINARY AND NEW EVENTS AND REGIONS:

NUMBER= ALL EVENTS AS LISTED BY EMSC OR USGS

numbered are events > M 2.0 with single events exceeding magnitude M 4.0.

 

CONTINENTAL EURASIA INCLUDING ASIA

SELDOM

"E"/"F

MAP

01

EURASIA>< AFRICA >> ARABIA M 4.5 - HUNGARY - 2013-04-22 22:28:47 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  
             

PRELIMINARY SPECIAL REPORT FOR APRIL 21/ 2013> HIGHEST ALERT LEVEL FOR EARTHQUAKES POSSIBLY EXCEEDING M 9.0 INCL TSUNAMI DANGER FOR THE NEXT DAYS ( APR 23- ?)( NEW PROTON STORM AND EXPECTABLE M OR X PROTON FLARE IN AR 11726

EVOLUTION OF FLARE ACTIVITY IN AR 11726 (APRIL 21-`2013)

 

large coronal holes formed out on the Sun during the last days: Temperatures at least in central Europe dropped for 15 degrees from April 18 to April 19 :

           
AR AND CH on 20130417 AR and CH on 20130418 AR and CH on 20130419 AR and CH on 20130421 AR and CH on 20130422 AR and CH on 20131423  

 

 
     
   
   
   
   
STARMAP (solen.info) STARMAP (solen.info) STARMAP (solen.info) STARMAP (solen.info) STARMAP (solen.info) STARMAP (solen.info) STARMAP (solen.info) ^PROTON STORM> BEGIN>20130421/ 09 UTC!    

APRIL 21: NEW Region 11726 emerged on April 19 near the central solar meridian at 9° Northern latidude in the vicinity of two huge coronal holes developed very quickly and has become magnetically complex with several small magnetic delta structures forming on the eastern side of the largest penumbral

REPORT TO CME event 21/ 13 ( MULTIPLE CME CLUSTER EVENT ASSOCIATED TO 10 pfu LEVEL PROTON STORM:

Overall sun activity ( background x/ ray flux surprisingly began to rise on April 20 after 22 UTCexceeding C level early on April 21. AR 11726. the fastest growing active region I have seen so far was also very busy starting up with 5 C flares flares today, each time growing in strength . What was likely the initial solar quake ( that remains mainly undetectable on Satellite imagers,) happened after 22 UTC distorted images and brought SDO satellite temorarely out of its course. Later images resumed days later and show a first strong overall surface eruption of solar wind ( and first protons?) along with that event, which had its center at the backside of the sun and produced a stronger CMEs there. Early on April 22 then, new emerged AR 11726 began sprinkling with short impulsive flares over that day with at least 3 detected PROTON CMEs on April 22 those all have Earth directed components. FIRST PROTONS arrive on April 21 after 09 UTC and decrease until April 24 form above 10 pfu to normal values.

Flare activity continued the following days on lower level with No major CME , while AR 11627 became more and more the only active region on the solar disc. While more and more rotating towards the Western limb, AR 11726 is - so the USAF report on April 23 , still capable even to produce a major X class flare in the coming day. The first CME of the multiple CLUSTER EVENT arrive on April 23 after 06 UTC and GEOMAGNETIC DENSITY rose by the event despite the strong depressing effects of the Proton storm above 160 NanoTesla The following CMEs arrived soon later and interfered to a geomagnetic storm that continued still at tha time of this update on April 25- 2013..

To my other surprise there is another proton storm today that started after 9 UTC, not much more than 10 days after the previous one that triggered many strong earthquakes those continued still today.

 

` NEW PROTON STORM<& EMISSION ASSOCIATED TO SHARP INCREASE IN SOLAR X RAY BACKGROUND ACTIVITY ON APRIL 20/ 2013/

update- APRIL 22/ 0:33. I counted 6 minor C class PROTON flares on April 21 (three of them associated with an earth directed positively chargedCME) , resp until the time of thise update . Note: Proton flares are much less bright than usual flares as the protons do not carry energetic particles and are therefor invisible. Proton flares also swallow/ neutralize lots of cinetic electrons and photons emmitted with the explosions. Thus they appear rather weak. In real these eruptions are the strongest known with protons accelerated to speeds higher than 10.000 km/ second ( compare normale CME material is acclerated to upmost 1000 km/ second. By their positive charge these CM;Es fully impact into the geomagnetic field, where their free protons react again with electrons to neutrons ( geomagnetic depression). The luckily only temporary positive charge makes a short circuit between the Sunb`s interplanetary magnetic field and the geomagnetic field , by which later incoming ( first the lower accelerated late electron antagonistsof these protons -the "energetic CME particles") can wander through the magnetic poles right into the Earth* s coreand heat it up like a stove . ( source: Max Planck Instituite for astrophysics, Garching/ Munich Germany. Read her some pdf article by the MPI about those phenomenons: pdf ( Max Planck/ Aeronomie) Steuert die Sonne das Erdklima?

other related interesting articles: (BBC) Is Solar activity to blame for Japan's massive earthquake?

NASA/ PROTON ARCHIVE events( incomplete!)/ Nov 07- 2004 /Nr.: 1910 Nov 08/0115 495 Halo/07 1706 Nov 07/1606 X2 N09W17 696

Roland Emmerichs "2012" is not a fake but a highly overexeggerated Hollywood action cinema DON`T WORRY ALL WILL BE GOOD AGAIN!

 

EVOLUTION OF FLARE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH CME EVENTS IN AR 11726 (APRIL 21-ff- 2013) CME CLUSTER Nr 21/ 13

           
20130420/ 11:24 UTC 20130421/ 09:54 UTC 20130421/ 17:54 UTC 20130421/ 21:54 UTC 20130422/ 20:54  

EXTENDED WARNING OF EARTHQUAKES POSSIBLY EXCEEEDING MAGNITUDES OF M 9.0 IN THE COMING DAYS! ( APR- 23- 25?) IN THE COMING

And I want to say it frankly as it just accords to my research and statistic comparation> Another proton storm and an active region producing an M or X proton flare and CME today while just crossing the solar meridian just on the 9th latitude North would likely trigger the most powerful natural DISASTER WE HAVE WITNESSED THE LAST DECADE, with an Earthquake soon to be expected that MAY MOST PROBABLY EXCEED again the magnitude of M 9.0

Be careful esp if you are near to tectonic boundaries (seismic active zones) and follow my report on the next days!

 
no later image avaiable yet ( transmission loss)    
 
 
 
 
STEREO-"AHEAD" STEREO-"AHEAD" STEREO-"AHEAD" STEREO-"AHEAD" ^first image after blackout at 14:39 UTC STEREO-"AHEAD"   20130421: ` X RAY BACKGROUND FLUX ROSE ABOVE C LEVEL  
20130420/ 04:12 UTC 20130421/ 01:14 UTC 20130421/ 18:41 UTC 20130421/ 20:29 UTC. 20130422/ 10: 28 20130422/ 22:41 UTC    
   
 
   
   
   
SDO /AIA-comp SDO /AIA-comp SDO /AIA-comp SDO /AIA-comp SDO /AIA-comp SDO /AIA-comp   ... CONTINUED    
20130421/ 08:00 UTC 20130421/ 16:36 20130421/ 21:48 UTC 20130422/ 18:24 UTC            
         
SoHO/ LASCO C 2 SoHO/ LASCO C 2 SoHO/ LASCO C 2 SoHO/ LASCO C 2       APRIL 21- 23 : INTROGEOMAGNETIC PROTON FLUX    
             
                       

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for may< volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 

         

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
SOURCES>> NASA/ GOES EUMETSAT METEOSAT (EUROPE)

NOAA/ Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Center

METEOALARM

usno.navy.mil NOAA  
                     

VARIOUS REPORTS:_

                   
                           
                   
       
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

83

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

270-277

FLARES >

C

03

 

CH 566

T- EQU.

GROWING

APR- 17- 2013

APR. 21- 23

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

112.9

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

 

 

M

01

 

CH UNN.

> 60° SOUTH

GROWING

APR- 15- 2013

APR 18

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

04

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

75- 130 nT

minor CME

X

 

 

CH UNN.

NORTH

CLOSED

APR- 13- 2013

APR 22?

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

           

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS> NONE  
faded (APR 12)

11717

00° - 14° W

12 °  S

   

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 

rotated out >

11718

       

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (EVOLUTION) :

 

rotated out >

11719

   
          ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>>

INCREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
faded (APR 12)

11720

46 °- 60° W

10 °  N

 

 

        LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

unclear fluctuation

  < LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)  
rotated out(APR 20)>

11721

       

 

 

 

  LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130213

20130220

 
rotating out

11722

82 ° - 96° W

20 °  S

CAO/ BXO

APRIL- 14

     

 

       

 

most active >

11723

60 ° - 74° W

18 °  S

DAI/ CSO

APRIL- 13

       

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
faded( APR 20)

11724

04 ° - 18° W

20 °  S

HRX/ BXO

APRIL- 14

     

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
faded (APR 21)

11725

72 ° - 68° W

09 °  N

CRO

APRIL- 14

      *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
 

11726

22° - 36° W

12 °  N

DRO/ DAI

APRIL 20

             
 

11727

31 ° - 17° E

25 °  N

DAO

APRIL-23

             

NEWLY SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

05

 

        INTERPLANETARY. REMARKS    

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

          PROTON FLUX

INCREASING

INCREASE: FEB 19 and STRONGER INCREASE: APRIL 21 after 06 UTC

 

 

 

 

^CME Nr.

      ELECTRON FLUX LOW/ NORMAL

LATEST: APRIL- 19: FLUCTUATIONS AND RISING VALUES (ONGOING)

 

internal remarks:

 

 

       

 

PROTON STORM ENDED DECREASING INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

ALatest: APRIL- 20. Solar activity seems again to make summersets with three large Coronal holes covering almost a third of the solar disc and many new sun spots and active regions. AR 11726 emerged on April 26, developed quickls and produced several C class PROTON flares with associated CMEs and an increase of introgeomagnetic proton flux on April 21 and 22

 
                 

 

 

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 22/1029Z from Region 1726 (N13W35). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (23 Apr) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (24 Apr, 25 Apr).

 

 

   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note,, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

           

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

LDE/ 20130413- 14

int. CME Nr. >>

20 a- c/ 13

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

EUROPE & AFRICA/ WEST

MULTIPLE LDE CLUSTER LONGITUDES : 15° E- 135° W

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

PROTON STORM /SEVERAL APPROACHING CMES

SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS

ATLANTIC/ CANARIES

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

EURASIA><AFRICA ><AMERICAS

 

PROTON EVENTS/ CMEs

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

ALL AMERICAS

CENTRAL

EURASIA><AFRICA ><CARIBB. ><AMERICAS

 

22. APRIL 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

USA/ WEST &

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

CARIBBEAN ><S & N- AMERICA >>COCOS

 

RISING M 5.5- 7.0 ( POTENTIAL: > M 9.0)

3 of 3 ( POSSIBLE!)

 

INDUCED CURRENTS

SECONDARY REGIONS :

SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

23. APRIL 2013

 

MINOR RADIO BLACKOUTS

KAMCHATKA/ NZL LONGITUDES: 165°W- 135° E

 

M 5.5- >9.0 EXPECTED CME ARRIVAL

3 of 3 ( POSSIBLE!)

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) EASTERN PACIFIC

NASZA-PACIFIC- JUAN DE FUCA!

 

24. APRIL 2013

 

ELECTRON STORM AFTER PROTON STORM (expected begin: APRIL 19?

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS:

 

YET NO FORECAST POSSIBLE

LATENCY (preliminary)

 

OTHERS:

GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES

EURASIA EAST *REGIONS> see definition below LONGITUDES : 165° - 35° E

 

 
 

LATE CME EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES*

ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: STRONGER QUAKES POSSIBLE (PROTON STORM & CME)   INFLUENCES> ACTIVE ELECTRONS PROTON INFLUENCE

 

TECTONICS

HEATING UP (AFTER CME IMPACT COOLING DOWN (LATENCY/ ENDING) UNCERTAIN    

 

EFFECTING AS > INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS (PROTONS)  
           

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

introgeomagnetic PROTON FLUX

 

geomagnetic field density still on elavated levels- further quakes> M 6.0 likely

 

QUIET

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 

X RAY EVENT > M 5.0

NONE

NONE

 

    RADIO EMISSIONS TPYE II TYPE II  
MAJOR STORM  

RADIO BLACKOUTS:

NONE NONE    

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE NONE  

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION

 

SOLAR STORMS:

SOLAR STORMS ARE INTENSIVE PARTICLE EMISSIONS

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

 

> 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS

< 1000 pfu.(decrease by proton influence)

+/- 1000 pfu

   
 

 

2 MeV ELECTRONS

< 100 pfu.(decrease by proton influence)

< 100 pfu.(rising)

 

 

internal remarks:

 

 

 

>10 MeV PROTONS R 1 (NOAA) > 10 pfu > 10 pfu .  
        NEUTRONS- P/E SYNTHESIS RISING ( > - 6%) RISING < siginificant changes only (no alerts)  

APRIL 16. 2013: Strong earthquakes happen regularly immidiately during/ after Proton Storms (those themselves likely are also caused by kinds of solar quakes) However, this time I I lifted my Earthquake alert too early ( was corrected today).. The current situation is similar to the masny massive earthquakes those followed the much stronger proton events after November 2004 and prior to March- 11- 2011, when stronger earthquake activity continued for weeks- after March 11 2011 even for month . But - due to the lower intensity and duration of the proton storm on April 11- 12- 2013 earthquake magnitudes this time are at least lower and another quake higher than M 9.0 must likely NO MORE BE EXPECTED with this event. Otherwise - the current earthquake happen on land and not offshore, thus the direct damge is much higher .

APRIL 15- 23:30- another but MINOR CME arrived from a filament eruption observed on April- 12

 

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM * compared to " normal" values INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 302 km/s at 21/2237Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 22/1009Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 22/0125Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 21/2315Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (23 Apr, 24 Apr) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (25 Apr). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (23 Apr).

 

     
                                 
                                 
                                 
click here to open and close collapsible panel with the archived "SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG" APRIL 16- 21- 2013

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

APRIL

 

DAY:

21

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 

      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS >  

 

EPICENTER/ MAP TSUNAMI WARNINGS    
Note:, as earthquake data are oftenly revised the next day by EMSC,this section will mostly be completed later this day . ! click here for MEDIA report ISSUED AT:   CANCELLED:  

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS > FOR REGIONS:  

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 6.2 - IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION - 2013-04-21 03:22:17 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

29.96 N ; 138.96 E

DEPTH >

435 km

WAVE/HEIGHT   FREQUENCY  

 

 

                  note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!  
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0):

 

CONTINENTAL EURASIA/ AFTERQUAKES SICHUAN / CHINA (DECREASING!)

SELDOM

"E"/"F

MAP

06

EURASIA>< AFRICA >> ARABIA M 5.1 - EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA - 2013-04-21 09:05:24 UTC  

WATCHING: EXTRAORDINARY AND NEW EVENTS AND REGIONS:

NUMBER= ALL EVENTS AS LISTED BY EMSC OR USGS

numbered are events > M 2.0 with single events exceeding magnitude M 4.0.

 

EQ SWARM WESTERN TURKEY/ SHIFTED FROM EASTERN TURKEY?

NEW( APRIL- 22- 2013)

"F"

MAP

48

ARABIA>< EURASIA M 3.1 - CENTRAL TURKEY - 2013-04-21 12:53:18 UTC  

EQ SWARM/ CENTRAL ITALY

NEW (APRIL- 22- 2013)

"E"

MAP

14

AFRICA >< EURASIA M 3.1 - CENTRAL ITALY - 2013-04-21 06:17:36 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  
                     

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for may< volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 

         

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
SOURCES>> NASA/ GOES EUMETSAT METEOSAT (EUROPE)

NOAA/ Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Center

METEOALARM

usno.navy.mil NOAA  
                     

VARIOUS REPORTS:_

                   
                           
                   
       
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

76

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

270-298

FLARES >

C

12

 

CH 566

T- EQU.

GROWING

APR- 17- 2013

APR. 21- 23

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

109.3

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 5.1

 

M

 

 

CH UNN.

> 60° SOUTH

GROWING

APR- 15- 2013

APR 18

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

02

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

75- 140 nT

MINOR CME

X

 

 

CH UNN.

NORTH

CLOSING

APR- 13- 2013

APR 22?

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

           

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS> NONE  
faded (APR 12)

11717

00° - 14° W

12 °  S

   

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 

rotated out >

11718

       

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (EVOLUTION) :

 

rotated out >

11719

   
          ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>>

INCREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
faded (APR 12)

11720

46 °- 60° W

10 °  N

 

 

        LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

unclear fluctuation

  < LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)  
rotated out(APR 20)>

11721

       

 

 

 

  LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130213

20130220

 
rotating out

11722

82 ° - 96° W

20 °  S

CAO/ BXO

APRIL- 14

     

 

       

 

most active >

11723

46 ° - 60° W

18 °  S

DAI/ CSO

APRIL- 13

       

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
faded( APR 20)

11724

04 ° - 18° W

20 °  S

HRX/ BXO

APRIL- 14

     

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
NEWLY EMERGED >

11725

72 ° - 68° W

09 °  N

CRO

APRIL- 14

      *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
NEWLY EMERGED >

11726

07° - 21° W

12 °  N

DRO/ DAI

APRIL 20

CLUSTER 3 CMEs APR- 23- 24        
NEWLY EMERGED >

11727

44 ° - 31° E

25 °  N

DAO

APRIL-23

             

NEWLY SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

02

 

        INTERPLANETARY. REMARKS    

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

          PROTON FLUX

INCREASING

SLIGHT INCREASE AFTER SEVERAL CME EVENTS ON APRIL 19