-----------------------

 

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alien- homepage.de- Earth quake statistics- -SUN SPOT ACTIVITY- 11- years solar cycle- last update: SEPTEMBER 02 - 2013- -07:00 UTC copyright: reserved

background image: Aurora Borealis /COMMONS / wikipedia
open source earthquake forecast project created and provided by: alien-homepage.de-

 

According to NASA, this 24th. 11 year sun spot cycle has probably a " twin peak"- the second in 2015. This projekt therefore will be prolongued.
 
2012/ 13 - MAXIMUM OF 11- YEAR SOLAR CYCLE
SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG

ARCHIVE AUGUST - 2013

NASA STEREO BEACON

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NOTE: I WILL INTRODUCE A NEW ARCHIVE SYSTEM IN 2012. CLICK ON THE BUTTON (right) FOR THE NEW ARCHIVE DIRECTORY! >

Note: Due to the high data amount in these monthly archives, I am currently trying to improve this by putting the single archives into collapsible panels.

Also I will split the monthly archive into 4 weekly ones. click on the following tabs to open the collapsible panels. You can report to my blog, if you should still experience problems when loading this page.

click here to open panel with graphics, volcano maps , earthquake statistic- AUGUST- 2013
   
ALL KNOWN VOLCANOES WORLDWIDE, WEEKLY ACTIVITY UPDATES, WEBCAMS, and much more on my "REGIONAL VOLCANO " MAPS:
INTERNAL MAPS: click on the images or links below to get to my large regional maps, where you find all volcanoes around the world with descriptions , webcams and much more such as ancients sites! . Weekly regular activity updates, special earthquakes events with many functions

world volcano map 1.0

world volcano map version 2.0

Europe and Western Asia Africa and Arabic peninsula Central America and Mexico South America- Northern part South America- Southern part Central America and Mexico Northern America Kamchatka peninsula Japan region Indonesia and Philippines Australia and Southern Pacific

 

SPACECRAFTS:  
SoHO
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
SDO /AIA
Solar Dynamics Observatory
STEREO
Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory
GOES
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites

ACE

 
 
 
 
 
 
Advanced Composition Explorer

^^ internal Earthquake statistics- with Sun activity curves : green = SUNSPOT NUMBER, Pink= SOLAR FLUX, blue= PLANETARY A INDEX- right image: planetary constellations in March 2013

click here to see some of the paradox observations made during that solar cycle first possibly by observatory sopacecrafts: : CORONAL HOLES THOSE REAPPEAR DURING SEVERAL SOLAR ROTATION PERIODS ON THE SAME HELIOGRAPHIC POSITION

 

VIDEOS/ REPORTS, SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL EVENTS- AUGUST - 2013:

VIDEOS/ REPORTS OF THE WEEK

  (wired.com/ 20130818)Large Explosion at Sakurajima Dusts Kagoshima with Ash
 

 

 

  tvnz.co.nz/ 20130820) White Island eruption sparks heightened alert
 

 

 

 
MAJOR EARTH DIRECTED CMEs :
Inhalt
MAJOR EARTH DIRECTED CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME):

JULY- 2013

 
   
NONE
                       
                                 
                                 
 
SIGNIFICANT SOLAR AND TERESTRIAL EVENT LOGS

LATEST SOLAR EVENTS (last update-: AUGUST 15 - 2013)

a serial of- stronger eruptive prominences and flares occured near AR 11817 on August 13- 15 . As expected the three major active regions liend up in the Southern Solar hemisphere and situated at the southern edge of large CH 579 correspond with each other and so also AR 11818 and AR 11819 produced strong prominences and some minor flares. Two events on Aug 12 and August 13 have earth directed parts those will impact on August 14 and 15. The event is associated with an medium strong HSS form CH 579 that began to decay on August 14. The CME will delay earthquake activities but increase temporarely nbew volcanic activities and might also trigger (thuder-) storms, minor gacial meltdowns with associated flloodings and other weather effects

LATEST SOLAR EVENTS (last update-: JULY- 24- 2013: Solar activity is on very low level since July 21

Regularly and almost each year, solar x ray and sun spot activity sinks to a minimum twice per year at then time of summer` s and winter`soltice around June 23 and December 23. This year this phase was later and began at that time when (due to the egypt calendar) the SIRIUS year begins ( around 21. of July) This is, when Sirius appears again behind the sun shortly and becomes therefore visibly shortly before sunrise. There is not doubt about that nearby planets influence or even can trigger or amplify eruptions form sunspots and ARs. Its might be suggested , but there is no real proof whether and how nearby massive stars such as Sirius or the galactic center , those are both aligning with the Sun and Earth during each soltice influence the sun or especial sun spot and x ray activity.

 

 

AUG- 27- 2013: electron activity began significantly to decrease on Aug 27. > 2 MeV electrons TEMPORARELY dropped below treshold after 12 UTC. The major geomagnetic storming indicates, this decrease is related to the arrival of an medium strong CME likely from an event on Aug 25 around 17 UTC , that was not detected due to satellit blackouts. Also a major particle flow (protons) was observed during the past days that likely derivedalso from several prominences and filament eruptions observed between AUG 22 and 25 and/ or a low level HSS from decaying CH 581 that closed on August 26... I was busy on August 27 and did not control the electron flux anymore after 12 UTC, thus I made this update late early on Aug 28. However- again Earthquake activity increased soon after electron flux dropped below treshold of 1000 pfu , what confirms again and once more , that my theories of tectonic heating (= volcanism) and cooling down (contraction earthquakes) following and related to solar CMEs (esp. SEPs) seem to be correct and proves again, that the geomag electron flux might be most likely a simple but also very reliable tool, and indicator to predict earthquakes and volcanism . Further evidence will be collected!

AUGUST- 21- 2013( after 21 UTC : ARRIVAL OF FIRST CME/SEP part:

ON AUGUST 20- after 21 UTC an sudden impuls was registered by GOES, the impact of the first part of the strange CME that occured yet on Aug 17 along with an SEP event.The impact occured exaclty when predicted by NASA/ NOAA with the major CME material expected to impact on Aug 23 after 22 UTC. The very new thing is:GOES PROTON Data indicate : this first CME part that impacted yesterday obviously contains only protons. Deriving form The SEP on Aug 17 they MUST HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY SLOW! Its also the first and therefor NEW TYPE SEP event I observed, when electrons impacted first)

 

MINOR SOLAR SEP/ or: SAP ("solar energetic/accelerated particle event ") ON AUGUST 17-. 2013!

ON AUGUST 17/ 18:32 UTC even another SOLAR SEP ( or: SAP) shook the planetary environment associated with a major M 3 flare from large AR 11818, that was FULLY HALO (Earth directed) on SoHO imagery. Introgeomagnetic PROTON flux slightly increased at 23 UTC above 0.8 pfu. : The first event of its kind i have opbserved yet was unusual as electrons this time were accelerated higher than protons.(something describable as " electron dominated SEP" ). I have written an email to NOAA and will publish their answer as soon as it comes in

LATEST TERRESTRIAL EVENTS (last update,AUGUST- 17- 2013: > 10 MeV ELECTRON FLUX HAS INCREASED AGAIN ABOVE 1000 pfu ON AUGUST 16 after 15 UTC . The source of the increase were several proton flares in AR 11817 and 11818- mainly on Aug 15 associated with a stronger HSS stream from decaying Coronal Hole CH 579, that caused a minor geomagnetic storm. The electron activity is e xpected to be only temporary , Without a previous proton storm- such as after a SAP event- it seems unlikely, that this electron activity will be geoeffective for more than 1 - 3 days
LATEST TERRESTRIAL EVENTS (last update,AUGUST- 12-17- 2013:SEVERAL SAPS HAD ACCUMULATED THEIR ENERGIES( SINCE MARCH 2013) . THE SAP RELATED ELECTRON ACTIVITY GRADUALLY BEGAN TO DECREASE AFTER JULY 30 AND DROPPED FIRST TIME SINCE MONTH BELOW 1000 pfu. on AUGUST 12- 2013. AUG 15: The cooling down process of tectonic plates affected by the previous SAPs in 2013 was disturbed and finally interupted after a new INCREASE IN GEOEFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after serial of CMEsass. with an HSS on AUGUST 15 and a new type of SEP on AUG 17.
LATEST TERRESTRIAL EVENTS (last update, JULY- 25- 2013: A SUDDEN IMPULS (solar wind shock) was observed on GOES after 06:00 UTC. Its origin is the strong SEP event/ eruption not far behind the western limb on July 22, which sent a part of its CME into Earth direction and accelerated (>see Stereo img. ) solar sun winds on the earth facing side of the Sun. Geomagnetic density rose to 155 nT.The impact regions were the same as in previous CME.( North- and Southamerica until Western/ Central Pacific) The arrival is coincidentwith a high speed solar wind stream from the quickly decaying CH 576, what created conditions for geomagnetic storming (NOAA).
 
   
   
   

 

 

 

 

click here to open and close collapsible panel with the archived "SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG "AUGUST 22- 31 2013

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

AUGUST

 

DAY:

31

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 

      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERT ISSUED AT:

 

 

 

EPICENTER/ MAP AFFECTED REGION(S)

 

 
  click here for MEDIA report

 

CANCELLED AT:

 

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS >

NOAA TSUNAMI ALERT REPORT:

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.9 - ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS. - 2013-08-31 06:38:42 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

51.51 N ; 174.94 W

DEPTH >

 

WAVE/HEIGHT

 

FREQUENCY

 

 

 

                 

note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!

 
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0):

 

CANADA, ALASKA/AFTERQUAKES ANDREANOF ISLANDS

SOMETIMES

"C"

MAP

11 /9x > M 5

NORTH-AMERICA ><EXPLORER PLATE M 5.4 - ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS. - 2013-08-31 09:50:50 UTC  

(AFTER-) QUAKES/ SICHUAN-YUNNAN BORDER REG

SELDOM

"E"/"F

MAP

05

EURASIA>< AFRICA >> ARABIA M 5.7 - SICHUAN-YUNNAN BORDER REG, CHINA - 2013-08-31 00:04:18 UTC  

PACIFIC/MAINLY WEST/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC.

FREQUENT

"B"

MAP

03

PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.0 - SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION - 2013-08-31 22:47:46 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  
 
                       

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 

         
   
   

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
SOURCES>> NASA/ GOES EUMETSAT METEOSAT (EUROPE)

NOAA/ Hurricane Center

METEOALARM

usno.navy.mil NOAA  
ATLANTIC:                  

:

  CATHEGORIES  
:wunderground.com NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION DIRECTION TYPE/ CATH  
  Invest 96L AUG- 29- 2013 NORTHERN ATLANTIC

35 MPH (+)

16.7° W

15.2 ° N

NEAR THE COAST OF SENEGAL/ AFRICA

WNW

L

 
                     
                   
                     
PACIFIC                    
:wunderground.com NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION DIRECTION TYPE/ CATH  
  Tropical Depression Eleven-E AUG- 30- 2013 EASTERN PACIFIC

35 MPH ()

116.2° W

18.8 ° N

500 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS/ GULF OF CA.

NNW

TD

 
Invest 97E AUG- 28- 2013 EASTERN PACIFIC

30 MPH ()

127.8° W

12.7 ° N

1500 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS/ GULF OF CA.

E

L

 
Tropical Storm Kong-rey AUG- 25- 2013 WESTERN PACIFIC

35 MPH (-)

129.5° E

33.6 ° N

NEAR NAGASAKI/ JAPAN

NE

TS

 
                     
                    ^^ NOAA REAL TIME METEOSAT  
                           

HEADLINES

20130831

 

 

       

2013

  VARIOUS SOURCES  

Quake in China kills four people

An earthquake has hit a remote part of southwest China near the popular tourist area of Shangri-La, killing four people and injuring several others, state media says. Saturday's earthquake in Yunnan province on the border with Sichuan province sparked landslides, blocked roads, cut off communications and toppled or damaged tens of thousands of homes in the mountainous area. One person died as falling rocks smashed into a tourist bus, killing the driver, said the Yunnan government, which put the total at four dead. ...read more...

21 dead as floods strike quake-hit Chinese province

At least 21 people have been killed and four reported missing in floods and mudslides that hit a Chinese province where at least 95 others died this week in twin earthquakes, state media reported on Saturday. Floods, landslides and rockfalls have been reported since Thursday in the northwestern province of Gansu following heavy rains, China’s official Xinhua news agency said, quoting the local government. ...read more...

 

 
MODIS- 20130830/ Flooding in Northeastern China- click on images to enlarge   MODIS/ 20130830- Rim Fire Smoke and Burn Scar
                           
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

60

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

363-427

FLARES >

C

 

 

CH 583

CNTR./SOUTH

GROWING

AUG- 28-

SEP- 02

 

 

SOLAR FLUX (SFU)

107.5

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

 

 

M

 

 

CH 582

NORTH

CLOSING

AUG- 23-

AUG. 28- 29

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

11

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

 

under proton influence

X

 

 

           

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

     

2013

   

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

LOW

SOURCE:

CH 582

rotated out (AUG28)

11823

       

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 

faded again (AUG 27)

11827

46° - 60 ° W

19 ° S

BXO

 

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (SHORT PERIOD FLUCTUATION) :

 

faded (AUG 29)

11828

44° - 58 ° W

14 ° N

BXO

AUG-25

       

X-RAY/ SUNSPOTS >

RISING

ERUPTIONS >

LOW

 
faded (AUG 24)

11829

75° - 89 ° W

05 ° N

CRO/AXX

AUG-24

        LAST X RAY MINIMUM LAST X-RAY MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

   
rotated out (AUG-25)

11830

81° - 95 ° W

06 ° S

CAO/ HSX

 

 

 

 

 

20130611

20130710

 

 
rotated out (AUG-25

11831

76° - 90 ° W

13 ° N

CAO/ DRO

       

 

 

 

faded (AUG-24)

11832

62° - 76 ° W

25 ° N

CRO/ BXO

         

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
faded (AUG-25)

11833

07° - 21 ° W

19 ° N

AXX

       

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
 

11834

06° - 22° W

13 ° N

 

AUG- 30

      *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
 

11835

02° E - 12 ° W

10 ° S

 

AUG 30

             
 

11836

33° -19 ° E

11 ° N

 

SEP 01

             

SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

02

 

        INTERPLANETARY. CURRENT STATE:    

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

          PROTON FLUX

HIGHER

RISING AFTER CME/ 20130830/ 02 UTC

< RISING ON BACK TO NORMAL:

INCREASING

 
              ELECTRON FLUX

LOWL

HIGHER AFTER CME/ 20130830/ 02 UTC

< RISING ON DROPPING UNTIL>

LOW INCREASE

 

internal remarks:

 

 

       

 

PROTON STORM ENDED DECREASING INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

 

 
         
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 31/1736Z from Region 1836 (N11E19). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Sep, 02 Sep, 03 Sep).

 

 

         
                         
TODAY`S NEW SOLAR EVENTS: SOLAR EVENTS:
                 

TYPE OF EVENT

DATE OF EVENT

Int CME Nr.:

impact on:

DESCRIPTION

              SOURCE: INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  
                 

 

 

 

NEW: WEEKLY REVIEW OF SATELLITE IMAGES /significant solar activities, those were NOT necessarely Earth directed    
    20130830/ 02:29 UTC 20130830/ 12:55 UTC 20130830/ 23:30 UTC 20130831/ 18:27 UTC 20130831/ 22:28 UTC  
   
 
 
 
 
 

ongoing event

(1) SDO /AIA-comp (2) SDO /AIA-comp (3) SoHO/ LASCO C 2

(4) SoHO/ LASCO C32

SoHO/ LASCO C 3 ^GOES/ introgeomagnetic proton Flux ^ ^GOES/ X Ray flux ^  
                 
^several minor flares and prominences have followed tha LED flare on Aug 30 (1) from AR 1134. These events might have ejected minor earth directed CMEs or at least solar winds streams too, those will not be accounted in this report.
 
   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

 

 

 

         
        * note: Due to the necessary evaluation of incoming data, NOAA space weather alerts are oftenly BACKDATED!  

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

QUIET

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT (2)

PAST 24 h

REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

UNSETTLED

 

X RAY EVENT (FLARES)

NONE NONE

 

ACTIVE

CME

TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION NONE

II /IV

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

R 1

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

NONE

 

MAJOR STORM

G 1

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

G1 minor

G1 predicted  
               

ONGOING CME IMPACT (36/13)

. GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -10 nT at 10:11 UTC NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 1 nT/ 21:00 UTC  
  EFFECTIVE PROTONS

19:20 UTC

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS  

 

       

 

           
CURRENT PARTICLE FLUX:                  

LATEST SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENT

PROTON SPEED:

BEGIN

END

PEAK: PARTICLE TYPES

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS:

 
PROTON IMPACT: 20130817

2 CMEs (AR 11817 and 11818)

appr 8300 km/ sec.

20130817/23 UTC

20130819/ 06 UTC

0.7 pfu.

> 10 MeV PROTONS(4)        
    resumed- AUG- 20- 2013 after 6 UTC PROTON FLUX RISING AGAIN

20130820/ 06 UTC

20130822/ 12 UTC

2.0 pfu

> 10 MeV PROTONS(4)

+/- 0.1 pfu.

+/- 0.1 pfu.

NORMAL  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS                  

EFFECTIVE > 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS:

 

ELECTRON ACCUMULATION >

20130816/08 UTC

ongoing 1.005. 000

>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS (1)

>9.000 < 30.000 pfu. (+)

> 8000 < 30.000 pfu. (+)

ACTIVE  
EFFECTIVE > 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS:

NOAA:

ELECTRON ACCUMULATION > 20130816/08 UTC

ongoing

10.500

>2.0 MeV ELECTRONS(1)

>90 < 300 pfu (-)

>180 < 300 pfu (+)

ACTIVE

 

  more about " SEPs" current solar energetic particle events in register card of " today`s blog"

 

NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) <-6.9 > - 8.1 (-)

<-6.7 > - 8.0 (-)

HIGHER

 

SOLAR STORMS (SAPor SEP ) ARE INTENSIVE EMISSIONS OF HIGH ACCELERATED SOLAR PARTICLES ( PROTON/ ELECTRONS)

  (2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report)    
* SAP OR:" SEP" = SOLAR ACCELERATED (OR: ENERGETIC) PARTICLES (PR., EL.) (1) treshold for electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu   (3) yesterday average values (4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu < ABBREVIATIONS/ CLASS.  

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM * compared to " normal" values INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 496 km/s at 31/2050Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 30/2107Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 30/2122Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (01 Sep), quiet to active levels on day two (02 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (03 Sep).

 

 

 

             
           

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

          (INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS  
     
       
 

CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL EVENTS

LAST UPDATE

20130830            
GEOMAGNETIC STORM   CME IMPACT (CLUSTER)

APPROACHING CMEs :

2

 
SEP (SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS)

STRENGTH >

LOW (1-2)
 

LATEST TERRESTRIAL EVENTS (last update,AUGUST- 27- 2013:AUG- 27- 2013: electron activity began significantly to decrease on Aug 27. > 2 MeV electrons TEMPORARELY dropped below treshold after 12 UTC. The major geomagnetic storming indicates, this decrease is related to the arrival of an unexpected medium strong CME on Aug 27 after 13 UTC , that likely derived from several prominences and filament eruptions observed between AUG 22 and 25 and/ or a low level HSS from decaying CH 581 that closed on August 26..

 

SEP BEGIN(SOLAR)

20130817/18:21

> 10 MeV PROTONS:

+/- 0.1 pfu.

 

EFFECTIVE UNTIL (ESTIMATED) :

20130831

> 2 MeV ELECTRONS: < 1.000 pfu  
 

> 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS:

> 10.000 pfu.  

LATEST TREND ON SOLAR DATA PLOTS at the time of this update:

> 2 MeV ELECTRONS:

dropping!  
       

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130820/21

EFFECTIVE CMEs/ int. Nrs. >

MINOR SEP AND 2 CMEs Nr. 34/ 13 a,b,

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

CME EFFECTIVITY:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / HOT SPOTS (+) N& S- AMERICA LONGITUDES: 30° - 90° W/ 150- 180° W ACCUMULATING SAP events (HIGH!)

 

ALERT LEVEL

* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

 
CME IMPACTS.

SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS/ TORNADOES (-)

SOUTH AMERICA/ W

PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< NASCA

IMPACT HEMISPHERE:

 

CME IMPACTS. ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES TODAY ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3) hh

POLAR HEATING EFF. /GLACIAL MELTDOWNS CENTRAL AMERICA

ATLANTIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< CARRIBEAN >< COCOS

NORTH

 

31. AUGUST 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

EAST & CTR: PACIFIC PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< INDO-AUS

 

 

M 5.5- > 7.5 (POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (INCREASING )

 
INDUCED CURRENTS (POSSIBLE) SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS : SEVERAL RECENT SAP EVENTS AND CMES HAVE ACCUMULATED A HIGH POTENTIAL OF (HEAT-) ENERGY WITHIN THE EARTH BODY!

 

01. SEPTEMBER 2013

 
RADIO BLACKOUTS (PROTON INFLUENCE) PACIFIC/ EURO- EAST LONGITUDES : 180°- 90° E

 

M 5.5- 7.0 (POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (EXPECTED CME IMPACT )

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) EASTERN ATLANTIC

EURASIA >< N- AMERICA>

 

02. SEPTEMBER 2013

 

ELECTRON STORM AFTER PROTON STORM (-)

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS:

 

M 5.5- > 7.5 (POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (PRELIMINARY)

 

SEP EFFECTS:

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION AND STORM (+)

EURASIA

LONGITUDES : 90° E - 00- 30° W *REGIONS> see definition below

 

LATENCIES:

 
TECTONICS ELECTRONS HEATING UP TECTONIC PLATES

VOLCANO/ HOT SPOT ACTIVITY >

DECREASING

 

INFLUENCES:

ACTIVE ELECTRONS AFTER PROTON FLARES MINOR PROTON IMPACT (CME)  

EARTHQUAKES

TECTONICS COOLING DOWN (+) ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY >>> Electron DECREASE after unexpected CME impact on AUG 28 and 30

 

EFFECTING AS >

INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS:  
NEXT TIME OUTLOOK :               (TODAY`S EQ FORECAST IS ONLY PRELIMINARY AND MIGHT BE REVISED LATER TODAY)  

LAST UPDATE/ AUGUST 23 - (HOT SPOT) VOLCANISM AND THE CHANCE FOR SUDDEN UNEXPECTED THUNDERSTORMS/ TORNADOES WILL INCREASE AFTER AUG 23 UNTIL APPR: AUGUST 31 ( or longer!)

 

abbreviations:

 

(+) means: this activity is INCREASING

(-) means: This activity is DECREASING

 

* SAP/SEP = Solar Accelerated /Energetic PARTICLES (Protons, Electrons)

 
NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!  
     

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

AUGUST

 

DAY:

30

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 

      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERT ISSUED AT:

 

 

 

EPICENTER/ MAP AFFECTED REGION(S)

 

 
  click here for MEDIA report

 

CANCELLED AT:

 

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS >

NOAA TSUNAMI ALERT REPORT:

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 7.0 - ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS. - 2013-08-30 16:25:00 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

51.79 N ; 175.24 W

DEPTH >

10 km

WAVE/HEIGHT

 

FREQUENCY

 

 

 

                 

note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!

 
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0):

 

AFTERQUAKES ALASKA/ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS

SOMETIMES

"C"

MAP

04

<EURASIA >< NORTH-AMERICA ><EXPLORER PLATE M 5.0 - ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS. - 2013-08-30 21:55:44 UTC  

PACIFIC/MAINLY WEST/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC.

FREQUENT

"B"

MAP

02

PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.8 - NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G. - 2013-08-30 02:11:03 UTC  

CONTINENTAL EURASIA INCLUDING ASIA

SELDOM

"E"/"F

MAP

04 x > M 4

EURASIA>< AFRICA >> ARABIA M 5.1 - NORTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA - 2013-08-30 05:27:29 UTC  
      MAP   EURASIA>< AFRICA >> ARABIA M 5.0 - WESTERN XIZANG - 2013-08-30 17:49:01 UTC  

REGION INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES/ INDIA

FREQUENT

"A"

MAP

4 x > M 4

EURASIA >< / INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.1 - BANDA SEA - 2013-08-30 21:04:57 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  
 
                       

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 

         
   
   

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
SOURCES>> NASA/ GOES EUMETSAT METEOSAT (EUROPE)

NOAA/ Hurricane Center

METEOALARM

usno.navy.mil NOAA  
ATLANTIC:                  

:

  CATHEGORIES  
:wunderground.com NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION DIRECTION TYPE/ CATH  
  Invest 96L AUG- 29- 2013 NORTHERN ATLANTIC

25 MPH ()

.5 15.5° W

14.5 ° N

NEAR CAPE VERDE

W

L

 
                     
                   
                     
PACIFIC                    
:wunderground.com NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION DIRECTION TYPE/ CATH  
  Invest 97E AUG- 28- 2013 EASTERN PACIFIC

30 MPH ()

130.6° W

12.4 ° N

1300 KM SEE OFF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA

SE

L

 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Juliette AUG- 27- 2013 EASTERN PACIFIC

30 MPH -()

114.8° W

26.7° N

OFF THE COAST OF GULF OF CALIFORNIA

NW

TC

 
Tropical Storm Kong-rey AUG- 25- 2013 WESTERN PACIFIC

40 MPH (-)

123.6° E

28.7 ° N

300 KM NORTH OF TAIWAN

NNE

TS

 
                     
                    ^^ NOAA REAL TIME METEOSAT  
                           

HEADLINES

 

 

 

       

2013

  VARIOUS SOURCES  
       
     
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

62

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

322-411

FLARES >

C

01

 

CH 583

CNTR./SOUTH

GROWING

AUG- 28-

SEP- 02

 

 

SOLAR FLUX (SFU)

107.5

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 3.1

 

M

 

 

CH 582

NORTH

CLOSING

AUG- 23-

AUG. 28- 29

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

07

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

75- 130 nT

minor CME IMPACT

X

 

 

           

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

     

2013

   

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

rotated out (AUG28)

11823

       

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 

faded again (AUG 27)

11827

46° - 60 ° W

19 ° S

BXO

 

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (SHORT PERIOD FLUCTUATION) :

 

faded (AUG 29)

11828

44° - 58 ° W

14 ° N

BXO

AUG-25

       

X-RAY/ SUNSPOTS >

RISING

ERUPTIONS >

LOW

 
faded (AUG 24)

11829

75° - 89 ° W

05 ° N

CRO/AXX

AUG-24

        LAST X RAY MINIMUM LAST X-RAY MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

   
rotated out (AUG-25)

11830

81° - 95 ° W

06 ° S

CAO/ HSX

 

 

 

 

 

20130611

20130710

 

 
rotated out (AUG-25

11831

76° - 90 ° W

13 ° N

CAO/ DRO

       

 

 

 

faded (AUG-24)

11832

62° - 76 ° W

25 ° N

CRO/ BXO

         

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
faded (AUG-25)

11833

07° - 21 ° W

19 ° N

AXX

       

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
 

11834

08° E - 06° W

13 ° N

DAI/ DRI

AUG- 30

      *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
 

11835

15° - 01 ° E

10 ° S

DKO/ DHO

AUG 30

             
 

11836

43° - 29 ° E

11 ° N

HAX/ CAO

SEP 01

             

SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

02

 

        INTERPLANETARY. CURRENT STATE:    

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

          PROTON FLUX

HIGHER

RISING AFTER CME/ 20130830/ 02 UTC

< RISING ON BACK TO NORMAL:

INCREASING

 
              ELECTRON FLUX

LOWL

HIGHER AFTER CME/ 20130830/ 02 UTC

< RISING ON DROPPING UNTIL>

LOW INCREASE

 

internal remarks:

 

 

       

 

PROTON STORM ENDED DECREASING INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

 

 
         
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 30/0246Z from Region 1836 (N11E30). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Aug, 01 Sep, 02 Sep).

 

 

SOLAR CME EVENT                  

20130830

CMEs at:

2:29 UTC

ARRIVAL:

20130901- 02

POLARITY: ALPHA BETA UNKNOWN  

GOES/ GEOMAG. PROTON FLUX

GOES / X- RAY (nuclear activity/ solar flares)  

TRACKING NR.:

37/ 13

20130830/ 04:09 UTC 20130830/ 02:29 UTC 20130830/ 05:06    

 

ACTIVE REGION:

11836

   

 

Earth directed?

FULLY HALO  

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

43° - 29 ° E

11 ° N

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

LDE/ FLARE

C 9  
  (1) STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) SDO /AIA-comp (3) SoHO/ LASCO C 2

(4) SoHO/ LASCO C 32

 

 

TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << NOAA SPACE WEATHER ALERTS NOAA/ X RAY EVENTS: INTERNAL REPORT

 

 

try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION

 

   

Abbreviations:

LDE

= Long Duration Event

2013

alien-homepage.de

 

10 cm RADIO BURST  

 

   

SAP

= Solar Accelerated Particles/ Protons

       
RELATED TERRESTRIAL CME TRACKING REPORT                

ONGOING CME ARRIVAL

CME/ Nr.:

/13

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

SEASONAL MAIN IMPACT LATITUDES (JUNE):

> 15° S- > 45° N

STRENGTH:    

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENT

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN/ UTC GEOMAGNETIC HZ COMPONENT   MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  
APPROACHING...                       IMPACT POLARITY :        
REMARKS:           E internal (relatiuve CME mass value      
MULTIPLE CME EVENTS ( CLUSTERS) AND LATENCY EFFECTS:
 
CMEs/ APPROACHING:
01
 
     
         
                 
 
   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

 

 

 

         
        * note: Due to the necessary evaluation of incoming data, NOAA space weather alerts are oftenly BACKDATED!  

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

QUIET

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT (2)

PAST 24 h

REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

UNSETTLED

 

X RAY EVENT (FLARES)

NONE NONE

 

ACTIVE

CME

TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION 2013 Aug 30 02: 12 ( TYPE I) 02: 24 UTC /TYPE IV)

NONE

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

R 1

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

NONE

 

MAJOR STORM

G 1

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

G1 predicted

G1 predicted  
               

ONGOING CME IMPACT (36/13)

. GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -2 nT at 18:16 UTC NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 1 nT/ 21:00 UTC  
  EFFECTIVE PROTONS

19:20 UTC

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS  

 

       

 

           
CURRENT PARTICLE FLUX:                  

LATEST SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENT

PROTON SPEED:

BEGIN

END

PEAK: PARTICLE TYPES

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS:

 
PROTON IMPACT: 20130817

2 CMEs (AR 11817 and 11818)

appr 8300 km/ sec.

20130817/23 UTC

20130819/ 06 UTC

0.7 pfu.

> 10 MeV PROTONS(4)        
    resumed- AUG- 20- 2013 after 6 UTC PROTON FLUX RISING AGAIN

20130820/ 06 UTC

20130822/ 12 UTC

2.0 pfu

> 10 MeV PROTONS(4)

+/- 0.1 pfu.

+/- 0.1 pfu.

NORMAL  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS                  

EFFECTIVE > 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS:

 

ELECTRON ACCUMULATION >

20130816/08 UTC

ongoing 1.005. 000

>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS (1)

> 8000 < 30.000 pfu. (+)

> 8 < 30.000 pfu. (-)

ACTIVE  
EFFECTIVE > 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS:

NOAA:

ELECTRON ACCUMULATION > 20130816/08 UTC

ongoing

10.500

>2.0 MeV ELECTRONS(1)

>180< 300 pfu (+)

> 2 < 250 pfu. (-)

ACTIVE

 

  more about " SEPs" current solar energetic particle events in register card of " today`s blog"

 

NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) <-6.7 > - 8.0

<-6.7 > - 7.3

HIGHER

 

SOLAR STORMS (SAPor SEP ) ARE INTENSIVE EMISSIONS OF HIGH ACCELERATED SOLAR PARTICLES ( PROTON/ ELECTRONS)

  (2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report)    
* SAP OR:" SEP" = SOLAR ACCELERATED (OR: ENERGETIC) PARTICLES (PR., EL.) (1) treshold for electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu   (3) yesterday average values (4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu < ABBREVIATIONS/ CLASS.  

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM * compared to " normal" values INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 439 km/s at 30/1532Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 30/1034Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 30/1011Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 165 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (31 Aug), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (01 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Sep).

 

 

 

             
           

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

          (INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS  
     
       
 

CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL EVENTS

LAST UPDATE

20130830            
GEOMAGNETIC STORM   CME IMPACT (CLUSTER)

APPROACHING CMEs :

2

 
SEP (SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS)

STRENGTH >

LOW (1-2)
 

LATEST TERRESTRIAL EVENTS (last update,AUGUST- 27- 2013:AUG- 27- 2013: electron activity began significantly to decrease on Aug 27. > 2 MeV electrons TEMPORARELY dropped below treshold after 12 UTC. The major geomagnetic storming indicates, this decrease is related to the arrival of an unexpected medium strong CME on Aug 27 after 13 UTC , that likely derived from several prominences and filament eruptions observed between AUG 22 and 25 and/ or a low level HSS from decaying CH 581 that closed on August 26..

 

SEP BEGIN(SOLAR)

20130817/18:21

> 10 MeV PROTONS:

+/- 0.1 pfu.

 

EFFECTIVE UNTIL (ESTIMATED) :

20130831

> 2 MeV ELECTRONS: < 1.000 pfu  
 

> 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS:

> 10.000 pfu.  

LATEST TREND ON SOLAR DATA PLOTS at the time of this update:

> 2 MeV ELECTRONS:

dropping!  
       

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130820/21

EFFECTIVE CMEs/ int. Nrs. >

MINOR SEP AND 2 CMEs Nr. 34/ 13 a,b,

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

CME EFFECTIVITY:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / HOT SPOTS (+) N& S- AMERICA LONGITUDES: 30° - 90° W/ 150- 180° W ACCUMULATING SAP events (HIGH!)

 

ALERT LEVEL

* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

 
CME IMPACTS.

SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS/ TORNADOES (-)

SOUTH AMERICA/ W

PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< NASCA

IMPACT HEMISPHERE:

 

CME IMPACTS. ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES TODAY ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3) hh

POLAR HEATING EFF. /GLACIAL MELTDOWNS CENTRAL AMERICA

ATLANTIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< CARRIBEAN >< COCOS

NORTH

 

30. AUGUST 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

EAST & CTR: PACIFIC PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< INDO-AUS

 

 

M 5.5- > 7.5 (POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (INCREASING )

 
INDUCED CURRENTS (POSSIBLE) SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS : SEVERAL RECENT SAP EVENTS AND CMES HAVE ACCUMULATED A HIGH POTENTIAL OF (HEAT-) ENERGY WITHIN THE EARTH BODY!

 

31. AUGUST 2013

 
RADIO BLACKOUTS (PROTON INFLUENCE) PACIFIC/ EURO- EAST LONGITUDES : 180°- 90° E

 

M 5.5- > 7.0 (POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (INCREASING )

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) EASTERN ATLANTIC

EURASIA >< N- AMERICA>

 

01. SEPTEMBER 2013

 

ELECTRON STORM AFTER PROTON STORM (-)

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS:

 

M 5.5- > 7.5 (POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (PRELIMINARY)

 

SEP EFFECTS:

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION AND STORM (+)

EURASIA

LONGITUDES : 90° E - 00- 30° W *REGIONS> see definition below

 

LATENCIES:

 
TECTONICS ELECTRONS HEATING UP TECTONIC PLATES

VOLCANO/ HOT SPOT ACTIVITY >

DECREASING

 

INFLUENCES:

ACTIVE ELECTRONS AFTER PROTON FLARES MINOR PROTON IMPACT (CME)  

EARTHQUAKES

TECTONICS COOLING DOWN (+) ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY >>> Electron DECREASE after unexpected CME impact on AUG 28 and 30

 

EFFECTING AS >

INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS:  
NEXT TIME OUTLOOK :               (TODAY`S EQ FORECAST IS ONLY PRELIMINARY AND MIGHT BE REVISED LATER TODAY)  

LAST UPDATE/ AUGUST 23 - (HOT SPOT) VOLCANISM AND THE CHANCE FOR SUDDEN UNEXPECTED THUNDERSTORMS/ TORNADOES WILL INCREASE AFTER AUG 23 UNTIL APPR: AUGUST 31 ( or longer!)

 

abbreviations:

 

(+) means: this activity is INCREASING

(-) means: This activity is DECREASING

 

* SAP/SEP = Solar Accelerated /Energetic PARTICLES (Protons, Electrons)

 
NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!  
     

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

AUGUST

 

DAY:

29

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 

      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERT ISSUED AT:

 

 

 

EPICENTER/ MAP AFFECTED REGION(S)

 

 
  click here for MEDIA report

 

CANCELLED AT:

 

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS >

NOAA TSUNAMI ALERT REPORT:

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.7 - FIJI REGION - 2013-08-29 13:52:27 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

19.35 S ; 179.04 W

DEPTH >

674 km

WAVE/HEIGHT

 

FREQUENCY

 

 

 

                 

note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!

 
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0):

 

PACIFIC/MAINLY WEST/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC.

FREQUENT

"B"

MAP   PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.1 - FIJI REGION - 2013-08-29 00:22:30 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  
 
                       

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 

         
   

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
SOURCES>> NASA/ GOES EUMETSAT METEOSAT (EUROPE)

NOAA/ Hurricane Center

METEOALARM

usno.navy.mil NOAA  
ATLANTIC: currently: none                

:

  CATHEGORIES  
PACIFIC                    
:wunderground.com NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION DIRECTION TYPE/ CATH  
  Invest 96E AUG- 27- 2013 EASTERN PACIFIC

40 MPH ()

105.5° W

17.7° N

180 KM SOUTH OF MANZANILLO/ MEXICO

NW

L

 
Invest 95E AUG- 24- 2013 EASTERN PACIFIC

30 MPH ()

104.5° W

17.0° N

100 KM SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO/ MEXICO

WNW

L

 
Tropical Storm Kong-rey AUG- 25- 2013 EASTERN PACIFIC

55 MPH (+)

122.8° E

21.7 ° N

200 KM SOUTH OF NORTHERN TAIWAN

NNW

TS

 
                     
                     
                     
                     
                     
                    ^^ NOAA REAL TIME METEOSAT  
                           

HEADLINES

 

 

 

       

2013

  VARIOUS SOURCES  
       
     
                           
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

68

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

310-370

FLARES >

C

 

 

CH UNN. CNTR./SOUTH GROWING

AUG- 28-

SEP- 02

 

 

SOLAR FLUX (SFU)

108.8

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 2.4

 

M

 

 

CH 582

NORTH

DECAYING

AUG- 23-

AUG. 28- 29

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

02

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

80- 115 nT

under proton influence

X

 

 

             

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

     

2013

   

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

rotated out (AUG28)

11823

       

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 

faded again (AUG 27)

11827

46° - 60 ° W

19 ° S

BXO

 

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (SHORT PERIOD FLUCTUATION) :

 

 

11828

44° - 58 ° W

14 ° N

BXO

AUG-25

       

X-RAY/ SUNSPOTS >

RISING

ERUPTIONS >

LOW

 
faded (AUG 24)

11829

75° - 89 ° W

05 ° N

CRO/AXX

AUG-24

        LAST X RAY MINIMUM LAST X-RAY MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

   
rotated out (AUG-25)

11830

81° - 95 ° W

06 ° S

CAO/ HSX

 

 

 

 

 

20130611

20130710

 

 
rotated out (AUG-25

11831

76° - 90 ° W

13 ° N

CAO/ DRO

       

 

 

 

faded (AUG-24)

11832

62° - 76 ° W

25 ° N

CRO/ BXO

         

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
faded (AUG-25)

11833

07° - 21 ° W

19 ° N

AXX

       

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
 

11834

22°- 08° E

13 ° N

CRO/ CRI

AUG- 30

      *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
 

11835

28° - 14 ° E

10 ° S

DKO/ DHO

AUG 30

             
HAX/ CAO 11836 57° - 43 ° E 11 ° N CME C1 proton flare at 05: 28 SEP 01 05:28 UTC SAGITTARIUS AUG- 31        

SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

02           INTERPLANETARY. CURRENT STATE:    

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

          PROTON FLUX

ELEVATED

HIGHER AFTER SAP/ 20130818/ 00 UTC

< RISING ON BACK TO NORMAL:

DECREASING

 
              ELECTRON FLUX

LOW/ NORMAL

HIGHER AFTER SAP/ 20130818/18 UTC

< RISING ON DROPPING UNTIL>

20130827/ 18 UTC

 

internal remarks:

 

 

       

 

PROTON STORM ENDED DECREASING INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

 

 
         
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 29/0434Z from Region 1836 (N15E36). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Aug, 31 Aug, 01 Sep).

 

 

                         
                   
SOLAR CME EVENT:                  

20130829

2 CMEs at:

5:26 UTC (21:30)

ARRIVAL:

estimated on AUG 31

POLARITY: ALPHA BETA UNKNOWN  

GOES/ GEOMAG. PROTON FLUX

GOES / X- RAY (nuclear activity/ solar flares)  

TRACKING NR.:

36/ 13

20130829/ 08:54 UTC 20130829/ 10:54 UTC 20130829/ 05:28 UTC 20130829/ 10:30 UTC  

20130829/ 21:30 UTC

 

 

ACTIVE REGION:

11836

   

 

Earth directed?

FULLY HALO  

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

57° - 43 ° E 11 ° N  

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

MINOR PROTON FLARE

C 1  
  (1) STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) SDO /AIA-comp

(4) SoHO/ LASCO C 32

  ^^ second- minor flareon AUG 29 at 21:30 from AR 11834

 

TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << NOAA SPACE WEATHER ALERTS NOAA/ X RAY EVENTS: INTERNAL REPORT

 

 

try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION

 

   

Abbreviations:

LDE

= Long Duration Event

2013

alien-homepage.de

 

10 cm RADIO BURST  

 

   

SAP

= Solar Accelerated Particles/ Protons

       
RELATED TERRESTRIAL CME TRACKING REPORT              

CME ARRIVAL

CME/ Nr.:

36 /13

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

SEASONAL MAIN IMPACT LATITUDES (JUNE):

> 15° S- > 45° N

STRENGTH:    

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENT

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN/ UTC GEOMAGNETIC HZ COMPONENT   MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  
APPROACHING...                       IMPACT POLARITY :        
REMARKS:           E internal (relatiuve CME mass value      
MULTIPLE CME EVENTS ( CLUSTERS) AND LATENCY EFFECTS:
 
CMEs/ APPROACHING:
01
 
     
         

A new very active region AR 11836 rotated in on August 27. The regions was very active yet and produces one flare after another As typical for proton flares, .these eruptions are strong but only produce minor x- ray amounts, resp most of the x ray emissions are slown down and swallowed by these protons. Protons values are elevated on ACE since August 17, and indicates that the most of these flares observed since then are indeed proton flares- have an alpha polarity- what means, that alpha particles /hydrogen core/ positive charges were ejected with an higher energy than their electron equivalant. The nature of these proton flares and the fact that these protons flares ar most frequent in thelast year of the solar 11 year cycle maxima, is not fully understood yet but has obviously to do with what NASA calls the all 11 year " flipping of the solar magnetic field". The impact of solar matter is however always a question OF ENERGY- means: how energetic this material is (by temperature and acceleration). A shower of cold water wouldn`t effect on the Earth at all, while especially CMEs with positive polarities impact fully in to the geomagnetic field, developing always an entire cascade of effects, those cuurently just accumulate energy on a steady rising POTENTIAL OF ENERGY within the earth body ( that works like a capacitor) that will become effective when these solar activities will decrease resp come to a halt any time after.

. Major eruptions were also observed on AUGUST 25 and AUGUST 28- The strongest yet happened shortly before i started this update on Aug 30 . An strong LDE fLare from AR 11836 that measures C 9on the X ray scale, but is likely another proton flare ( and is ztjherefor much more stronger than measured) ( not all images arer available yet)

 
   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

 

 

 

         
        * note: Due to the necessary evaluation of incoming data, NOAA space weather alerts are oftenly BACKDATED!  

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

QUIET

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT (2)

PAST 24 h

REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

UNSETTLED

 

X RAY EVENT (FLARES)

NONE NONE

 

ACTIVE

CME

TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION NONE

NONE

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

R 1

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

NONE

 

MAJOR STORM

G 1

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

PREDICTED: 61 for AUG 30

G1 minor  
               

ONGOINGCME IMPACT

. GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -2 nT at 09:41 UTC NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 1 nT/ 21:00 UTC  
  EFFECTIVE PROTONS

19:20 UTC

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS  

 

       

 

           
CURRENT PARTICLE FLUX:                  

LATEST SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENT

PROTON SPEED:

BEGIN

END

PEAK: PARTICLE TYPES

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS:

 
PROTON IMPACT: 20130817

2 CMEs (AR 11817 and 11818)

appr 8300 km/ sec.

20130817/23 UTC

20130819/ 06 UTC

0.7 pfu.

> 10 MeV PROTONS(4)        
    resumed- AUG- 20- 2013 after 6 UTC PROTON FLUX RISING AGAIN

20130820/ 06 UTC

20130822/ 12 UTC

2.0 pfu

> 10 MeV PROTONS(4)

+/- 0.1 pfu.

+/- 0.1 pfu.

NORMAL  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS                  

EFFECTIVE > 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS:

 

ELECTRON ACCUMULATION >

20130816/08 UTC

ongoing 1.005. 000

>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS (1)

> 8 < 30.000 pfu. -dropping

> 7< 60.000 pfu. -dropping

ACTIVE  
EFFECTIVE > 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS:

NOAA:

ELECTRON ACCUMULATION > 20130816/08 UTC

ongoing

10.500

>2.0 MeV ELECTRONS(1)

> 2 < 250 pfu -dropping

>60 < 3.000 pfu -dropping

ACTIVE

 

ABBREVIATIONS/ INDEX: more about " SEPs" current solar energetic particle events in register card of " today`s blog"

 

NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) <-6.7 > - 7.3

<-6.7 > - 8.0

HIGHER

 

SOLAR STORMS (SAPor SEP ) ARE INTENSIVE EMISSIONS OF HIGH ACCELERATED SOLAR PARTICLES ( PROTON/ ELECTRONS)

  (2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report)    
* SAP OR:" SEP" = SOLAR ACCELERATED (OR: ENERGETIC) PARTICLES (PR., EL.) (1) treshold for electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu   (3) yesterday average values (4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu < ABBREVIATIONS/ CLASS.  

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM * compared to " normal" values INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 440 km/s at 28/2143Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 29/2049Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 29/1903Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 134 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (30 Aug, 31 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Sep).

 

 

 

             
           

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

          (INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS  
     
       
 

CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL EVENTS

LAST UPDATE

20130828            
GEOMAGNETIC STORM   CME IMPACT (CLUSTER)

APPROACHING CMEs :

1

 
SEP (SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS)

STRENGTH >

LOW (1-2)
 

LATEST TERRESTRIAL EVENTS (last update,AUGUST- 27- 2013:AUG- 27- 2013: electron activity began significantly to decrease on Aug 27. > 2 MeV electrons TEMPORARELY dropped below treshold after 12 UTC. The major geomagnetic storming indicates, this decrease is related to the arrival of an medium strong CME likely from an event on Aug 25 around 17 UTC , that was not detected due to satellit blackouts. Also a major particle flow (protons) was observed during the past days that likely derivedalso from several prominences and filament eruptions observed between AUG 22 and 25 and/ or a low level HSS from decaying CH 581 that closed on August 26..

 

SEP BEGIN(SOLAR)

20130817/18:21

> 10 MeVPROTONS: ended/ normal  

EFFECTIVE UNTIL (ESTIMATED) :

20130831

> 2 MeV ELECTRONS: > 1.000 pfu  
       

LATEST TREND ON SOLAR DATA PLOTS at the time of this update:

> 2 MeV ELECTRONS:

dropping!  
       

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130820/21

EFFECTIVE CMEs/ int. Nrs. >

MINOR SEP AND 2 CMEs Nr. 34/ 13 a,b,

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

CME EFFECTIVITY:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / HOT SPOTS (-) N& S- AMERICA LONGITUDES: 30° - 90° W/ 150- 180° W ACCUMULATING SAP events (HIGH!)

 

ALERT LEVEL

* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

 
. DECREASING ELECTRON ACTIVITY

SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS/ TORNADOES (-)

SOUTH AMERICA/ W

PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< NASCA

IMPACT HEMISPHERE:

 

DECREASING ELECTRON ACT. ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES TODAY ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3) hh

POLAR HEATING EFF. /GLACIAL MELTDOWNS CENTRAL AMERICA

ATLANTIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< CARRIBEAN >< COCOS

NORTH

 

29. AUGUST 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

EAST & CTR: PACIFIC PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< INDO-AUS

 

 

M 5.5- > 7.0 (POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (INCREASING )

 
INDUCED CURRENTS (POSSIBLE) SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS : SEVERAL RECENT SAP EVENTS AND CMES HAVE ACCUMULATED A HIGH POTENTIAL OF (HEAT-) ENERGY WITHIN THE EARTH BODY!

 

30. AUGUST 2013

 
RADIO BLACKOUTS (PROTON INFLUENCE) PACIFIC/ EURO- EAST LONGITUDES : 180°- 90° E

 

M 5.5- 7.5 (POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

2-3 (HIGHER )

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) EASTERN ATLANTIC

EURASIA >< N- AMERICA>

 

31. AUGUST 2013

 

ELECTRON STORM AFTER PROTON STORM (-)

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS:

 

M 5.5- > 6.5 (POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (PRELIMINARY)

 

SEP EFFECTS:

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (-)

EURASIA

LONGITUDES : 90° E - 00- 30° W *REGIONS> see definition below

 

LATENCIES:

 
TECTONICS ELECTRONS HEATING UP TECTONIC PLATES

VOLCANO/ HOT SPOT ACTIVITY >

DECREASING

 

INFLUENCES:

ACTIVE ELECTRONS AFTER PROTON FLARES MINOR PROTON IMPACT (CME)  

EARTHQUAKES

TECTONICS COOLING DOWN (+) ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY >>> Electron DECREASE after unexpected CME impact

 

EFFECTING AS >

INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS:  
NEXT TIME OUTLOOK :               (TODAY`S EQ FORECAST IS ONLY PRELIMINARY AND MIGHT BE REVISED LATER TODAY)  

LAST UPDATE/ AUGUST 23 - (HOT SPOT) VOLCANISM AND THE CHANCE FOR SUDDEN UNEXPECTED THUNDERSTORMS/ TORNADOES WILL INCREASE AFTER AUG 23 UNTIL APPR: AUGUST 31 ( or longer!)

 

abbreviations:

 

(+) means: this activity is INCREASING

(-) means: This activity is DECREASING

 

* SAP/SEP = Solar Accelerated /Energetic PARTICLES (Protons, Electrons)

 
NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!  
     

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

AUGUST

 

DAY:

28

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 

      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERT ISSUED AT:

 

 

 

EPICENTER/ MAP AFFECTED REGION(S)

 

 
  click here for MEDIA report

 

CANCELLED AT:

 

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS >

NOAA TSUNAMI ALERT REPORT:

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 6.3 - KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION - 2013-08-28 02:54:41 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

27.89 S ; 179.79 E

DEPTH >

429 km

WAVE/HEIGHT

 

FREQUENCY

 

 

 

                 

note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!

 
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0):

 

PACIFIC/MAINLY WEST/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC.

FREQUENT

"B"

MAP

01

PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.0 - FIJI REGION - 2013-08-28 03:40:32 UTC  

REGION INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES/ INDIA

FREQUENT

"A"

MAP

04

EURASIA >< / INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.4 - KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA - 2013-08-28 05:43:25 UTC  

WATCHING: EXTRAORDINARY AND NEW EVENTS AND REGIONS:

NUMBER= ALL EVENTS AS LISTED BY EMSC OR USGS

numbered are events > M 2.0 with single events exceeding magnitude M 4.0.

 

CONTINENTAL EURASIA INCLUDING ASIA

FREQUENT SINCE 2013

"E"/"F

MAP

3 x > M 4

EURASIA>< AFRICA >> ARABIA M 4.7 - SOUTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA - 2013-08-28 14:32:20 UTC  

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

HIGHER SINCE AUG 2012

"C"

MAP

01

SAN ANDREAS FAULT >< JUAN DE FUCA M 3.8 - NORTHERN CALIFORNIA - 2013-08-28 04:43:05 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  
 
                       

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 

volcano-discovery/gadget

note: this report does NOT necessarely represent all currently global active volcanoes!

     

20130826

report by:

GVP  

 

21. - 27. AUGUST 2013

NEW ACTIVITIES/ UPDATES: Ebulobo (Flores Island (Indonesia)- Ijen (Eastern Java /Indonesia)- Kliuchevskoi (Central Kamchatka/ Russia)- Santa María (Guatemala)- Suwanose-jima (Japan)

ONGOING ACTIVITIES/ UPDATES:Fuego (Guatemala)- Karymsky (Eastern Kamchatka( Russia)- Kilauea (Hawaii/ USA)- Kizimen (Eastern Kamchatka/ Russia)- Manam (Papua New Guinea)- Pacaya (Guatemala)- Rabaul (New Britain) - Sakura-jima (Kyushu)- Shiveluch (Central Kamchatka/ Russia)- Tolbachik (Central Kamchatka/ Russia)- Veniaminof (United States)- White Island (North Island)

This page is updated on Wednesdays. Please see the GVP Home Page for news of the latest significant activity.

 
         
   

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
SOURCES>> NASA/ GOES EUMETSAT METEOSAT (EUROPE)

NOAA/ Hurricane Center

METEOALARM

usno.navy.mil NOAA  
ATLANTIC: currently: none                

:

  CATHEGORIES  
PACIFIC                    
:wunderground.com NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION DIRECTION TYPE/ CATH  
  Invest 96E AUG- 27- 2013 EASTERN PACIFIC

40 MPH ()

105.5° W

17.7° N

180 KM SOUTH OF MANZANILLO/ MEXICO

NW

L

 
Invest 95E AUG- 24- 2013 EASTERN PACIFIC

30 MPH ()

104.5° W

17.0° N

100 KM SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO/ MEXICO

WNW

L

 
Tropical Storm Kong-rey AUG- 25- 2013 WESTERN PACIFIC

55 MPH (+)

122.8° E

21.7 ° N

200 KM SOUTH OF NORTHERN TAIWAN

NNW

TS

 
                     
                     
                     
                     
                     
                    ^^ NOAA REAL TIME METEOSAT  
                           

HEADLINES

 

 

 

       

2013

  VARIOUS SOURCES  

(businness standard- 20130828) 5.1 quake jolts parts of China's Yunnan, Sichuan provinces

unction area of southwest China's Yunnan and Sichuan provinces today toppling several houses. No casualties have been reported, although the quake has destroyed dozens of houses and cut off road traffic and telecommunications, state-run Xinhua news agency reported. The quake has toppled 36 houses and damaged 36 others in Shangri-la County and affected nearly 4,000 people, according to a statement from the civil affairs bureau in the Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture of Deqen, which administers the county....read more...

(wunderground- 20130828) California's massive Rim Fire in Yosemite National Park continues to grow

...but firefighters took advantage of less windy conditions on Tuesday and had attained 23% containment of the fire as of 9:20 am EDT on Wednesday. According to Inciweb, the Rim Fire has burned 187,000 acres...read more...

(BBC- 20130827) Mexico mudslides and flash flooding kill 14

More than a dozen people have died in eastern Mexico, in landslides triggered by heavy rain caused by tropical depression Fernand. Thirteen people were killed when mud engulfed their homes on hillsides in Veracruz state. Another man drowned after being swept away by fast-flowing floodwaters in neighbouring Oaxaca. Fernand made landfall near the Atlantic port city of Veracruz on Monday and weakened as it moved north-west.

 
^NASA/ MODIS- 20130819- BIG BLAST AT SAKURAJIMA VOLCANO, JAPAN   ^NASA/ MODIS/ 20130826- RIM FIRE, CALIFORNIA
                           
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

44

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

361-465

FLARES >

C

 

 

CH 582

NORTH

DECAYING

AUG- 23-

AUG. 28- 29

 

 

SOLAR FLUX (SFU)

108

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 2.4

 

M

 

 

           

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

08

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

40- 105 nT

under proton influence

X

 

 

           

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

     

2013

   

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

rotating out >

11823

77° - 91 ° W

08 ° S

HSX

AUG-21

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 

reemerged (AUG- 27)

11827

46° - 60 ° W

19 ° S

BXO

 

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (SHORT PERIOD FLUCTUATION) :

 

 

11828

36° - 50 ° W

14 ° N

AXX/ BXO

AUG-25

       

X-RAY/ SUNSPOTS >

RISING

ERUPTIONS >

LOW

 
faded (AUG 24)

11829

75° - 89 ° W

05 ° N

CRO/AXX

AUG-24

        LAST X RAY MINIMUM LAST X-RAY MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

   
rotated out (AUG-25)

11830

81° - 95 ° W

06 ° S

CAO/ HSX

 

 

 

 

 

20130611

20130710

 

 
rotated out (AUG-25

11831

76° - 90 ° W

13 ° N

CAO/ DRO

       

 

 

 

faded (AUG-24)

11832

62° - 76 ° W

25 ° N

CRO/ BXO

         

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
faded (AUG-25)

11833

07° - 21 ° W

19 ° N

AXX

       

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
 

11834

36°- 22° E

13 ° N

BXO/ CRO

AUG- 30

      *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
 

11835

40° - 26 ° E

10 ° S

DSO/ DKO

AUG 30

             
 

11836

69° - 54 ° E

11 ° N

HSX/ CRO

SEP 01

             

SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

02

 

        INTERPLANETARY. CURRENT STATE:    

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

          PROTON FLUX

ELEVATED

HIGHER AFTER SAP/ 20130818/ 00 UTC

< RISING ON BACK TO NORMAL:

DECREASING

 
              ELECTRON FLUX

LOW/ NORMAL

HIGHER AFTER SAP/ 20130818/18 UTC

< RISING ON DROPPING UNTIL>

20130827/ 18 UTC

 

internal remarks:

 

 

       

 

PROTON STORM ENDED DECREASING INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

 

 
         
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Aug, 29 Aug, 30 Aug).

 

 

                         
 
   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

 

 

 

         
        * note: Due to the necessary evaluation of incoming data, NOAA space weather alerts are oftenly BACKDATED!  

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

QUIET

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT (2)

PAST 24 h

REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

UNSETTLED

 

X RAY EVENT (FLARES)

NONE NONE

 

ACTIVE

CME

TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION NONE

NONE

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

R 1

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

NONE

 

MAJOR STORM

G 1

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

G1 minor  
               

ONGOINGCME IMPACT

. GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -2 nT at 09:41 UTC NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 1 nT/ 21:00 UTC  
  EFFECTIVE PROTONS

19:20 UTC

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS  

 

       

 

           
CURRENT PARTICLE FLUX:                  

CURRENTLY ACTIVE SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENT (SEP)

PROTON SPEED:

BEGIN

END

PEAK: PARTICLE TYPES

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS:

 
LAST PROTON IMPACT: 20130817

2 CMEs (AR 11817 and 11818)

appr 8300 km/ sec.

20130817/23 UTC

20130819/ 06 UTC

0.7 pfu.

> 10 MeV PROTONS(4)        
    resumed- AUG- 20- 2013 after 6 UTC PROTON FLUX RISING AGAIN

20130820/ 06 UTC

20130822/ 12 UTC

2.0 pfu

> 10 MeV PROTONS(4)

+/- 0.1 pfu.

+/- 0.1 pfu.

NORMAL  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS                  

EFFECTIVE > 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS:

 

ELECTRON ACCUMULATION >

20130816/08 UTC

ongoing 1.005. 000

>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS (1)

>> 7< 60.000 pfu. -dropping

>2.000< 80.000 pfu

CME impact  
EFFECTIVE > 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS:

NOAA:

ELECTRON ACCUMULATION > 20130816/08 UTC

ongoing

10.500

>2.0 MeV ELECTRONS(1)

60 < 3.000 pfu -dropping

>08 < 4.000 pfu

CME impact

 

  more about " SEPs" current solar energetic particle events in register card of " today`s blog"

 

NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) <-6.7 > - 8.0

< - 6.8 > -7.9

HIGHER

 

SOLAR STORMS (SAPor SEP ) ARE INTENSIVE EMISSIONS OF HIGH ACCELERATED SOLAR PARTICLES ( PROTON/ ELECTRONS)

  (2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report)    
* SAP OR:" SEP" = SOLAR ACCELERATED (OR: ENERGETIC) PARTICLES (PR., EL.) (1) treshold for electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu   (3) yesterday average values (4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu < ABBREVIATIONS/ CLASS.  

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM * compared to " normal" values INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 440 km/s at 27/2045Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 27/1744Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 27/1810Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1407 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (28 Aug, 29 Aug, 30 Aug).

 

 

 

             
           

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

          (INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS  
     
       
 

CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL EVENTS

LAST UPDATE

20130828            
GEOMAGNETIC STORM   CME IMPACT (CLUSTER)

APPROACHING CMEs :

0

 
SEP (SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS)

STRENGTH >

LOW (1-2)
 

AUG- 27- 2013: electron activity began significantly to decrease on Aug 27. > 2 MeV electrons TEMPORARELY dropped below treshold after 12 UTC. Te decrease occurs during a major geomagnetic storming what indicates, this decrease is related to an unexpected CME from several prominences and filament eruptions between AUG 22 and 25, which arrived on Aug 27 after 12 UTC .and/ or a low level HSS from decaying CH 581 that closed on August 26. I was busy on August 27 and did not control the electron flux anymore after 12 UTC, thus I made this update late early on Aug 28. However- again Earthquake activity increased soon after electron flux dropped below treshold of 1000 pfu , what confirms again and once more , that my theories of tectonic heating (= volcanism) and cooling down (contraction earthquakes) following and related to solar CMEs (esp. SEPs) seem to be correct and proves again, that the geomag electron flux might be most likely a simple but also very reliable tool, and indicator to predict earthquakes and volcanism . Further evidence will be collected!

 

SEP BEGIN(SOLAR)

20130817/18:21

> 10 MeVPROTONS: ended/ normal  

EFFECTIVE UNTIL (ESTIMATED) :

20130831

> 2 MeV ELECTRONS: > 1.000 pfu  
       

LATEST TREND ON SOLAR DATA PLOTS at the time of this update:

> 2 MeV ELECTRONS:

dropping!  
       

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130820/21

EFFECTIVE CMEs/ int. Nrs. >

MINOR SEP AND 2 CMEs Nr. 34/ 13 a,b,

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

CME EFFECTIVITY:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / HOT SPOTS (-) N& S- AMERICA LONGITUDES: 30° - 90° W/ 150- 180° W ACCUMULATING SAP events (HIGH!)

 

ALERT LEVEL

* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

 
TEMPOR. DECREASING ELECTRON ACTIVITY

SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS/ TORNADOES (-)

SOUTH AMERICA/ W

PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< NASCA

IMPACT HEMISPHERE:

 

PROTON INFLUENCE ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES TODAY ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3) hh

POLAR HEATING EFF. /GLACIAL MELTDOWNS CENTRAL AMERICA

ATLANTIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< CARRIBEAN >< COCOS

NORTH

 

28. AUGUST 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

EAST & CTR: PACIFIC PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< INDO-AUS

 

 

M 5.5- 7.0 (POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (HIGHER )

 
INDUCED CURRENTS (POSSIBLE) SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS : SEVERAL RECENT SAP EVENTS AND CMES HAVE ACCUMULATED A HIGH POTENTIAL OF (HEAT-) ENERGY WITHIN THE EARTH BODY!

 

29. AUGUST 2013

 
RADIO BLACKOUTS (PROTON INFLUENCE) PACIFIC/ EURO- EAST LONGITUDES : 180°- 90° E

 

M 5.5- >6.5 (POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (DECREASING AGAIN )

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) EASTERN ATLANTIC

EURASIA >< N- AMERICA>

 

29. AUGUST 2013

 

ELECTRON STORM AFTER PROTON STORM (-)

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS:

 

M 5.5- 6.5 (POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (PRELIMINARY)

 

SEP EFFECTS:

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (-)

EURASIA

LONGITUDES : 90° E - 00- 30° W *REGIONS> see definition below

 

LATENCIES:

 
TECTONICS ELECTRONS HEATING UP TECTONIC PLATES

VOLCANO/ HOT SPOT ACTIVITY >

DECREASING

 

INFLUENCES:

ACTIVE ELECTRONS AFTER PROTON FLARES MINOR PROTON IMPACT (CME)  

EARTHQUAKES

TECTONICS COOLING DOWN (+) ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY >>> Electron DECREASE after unexpected CME impact

 

EFFECTING AS >

INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS:  
NEXT TIME OUTLOOK :               (TODAY`S EQ FORECAST IS ONLY PRELIMINARY AND MIGHT BE REVISED LATER TODAY)  

LAST UPDATE/ AUGUST 23 - (HOT SPOT) VOLCANISM AND THE CHANCE FOR SUDDEN UNEXPECTED THUNDERSTORMS/ TORNADOES WILL INCREASE AFTER AUG 23 UNTIL APPR: AUGUST 31 ( or longer!)

 

abbreviations:

 

(+) means: this activity is INCREASING

(-) means: This activity is DECREASING

 

* SAP/SEP = Solar Accelerated /Energetic PARTICLES (Protons, Electrons)

 
NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!  
     

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

AUGUST

 

DAY:

27

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 

      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERT ISSUED AT:

 

 

 

EPICENTER/ MAP AFFECTED REGION(S)

 

 
  click here for MEDIA report

 

CANCELLED AT:

 

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS >

NOAA TSUNAMI ALERT REPORT:

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.0 - SICHUAN-YUNNAN BORDER REG, CHINA - 2013-08-27 20:44:55 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

28.28 N ; 99.25 E

DEPTH >

10 km

WAVE/HEIGHT

 

FREQUENCY

 

 

 

                 

note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!

 
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0):

 

KAMCHATKA PENINSULA/ KURIL ISLANDS / JAPAN

FREQUENT

"B"

MAP

01

N-AMERICA >< EURASIA >< PACIFIC><PHIL. M 5.0 - OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN - 2013-08-27 17:09:23 UTC  
      MAP

01

N-AMERICA >< EURASIA >< PACIFIC><PHIL. M 5.3 - KURIL ISLANDS - 2013-08-27 14:25:44 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  
 
                       

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 

         
   

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
SOURCES>> NASA/ GOES EUMETSAT METEOSAT (EUROPE)

NOAA/ Hurricane Center

METEOALARM

usno.navy.mil NOAA  
ATLANTIC:                  

:

  CATHEGORIES  
:wunderground.com NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION DIRECTION TYPE/ CATH  
Remnants of Fernand AUG- 24- 2013 NORTHERN ATLANTIC

35 MPH ()

98.5° W

20.6° N

map currently not available

WNW

 

 
                   
PACIFIC                    
:wunderground.com NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION DIRECTION TYPE/ CATH  
Invest 95E AUG- 24- 2013 EASTERN PACIFIC 30 MPH ()

101.2° W

15.7° N

NEAR MEXICO CITY

WNW

TD

 
Tropical Storm Kong-rey AUG- 25- 2013 EASTERN PACIFIC

40 MPH ()

123.9° E

18.5 ° N

100 km EAST THE COAST OF NORTHERN PHILIPPINES

N

TS

 
                     
                     
                    ^^ NOAA REAL TIME METEOSAT  

VARIOUS REPORTS:_

                   
                           

HEADLINES

20130827

 

 

       

2013

  VARIOUS SOURCES  
       
     
                           
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

61

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

289-423

FLARES >

C

 

 

CH 582

NORTH

QUICKLY GROWING

AUG- 23-

AUG. 28- 29

 

 

SOLAR FLUX (SFU)

109.7

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 3.9

 

M

 

 

CH 581

NORTH

CLOSED (20130826)

AUG- 18-

AUG. 21-22

RECURRENT

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

 

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

50- 160 nT

under CME imfluence

X

 

 

           

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

     

2013

   

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

           

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 

rotating out >

11823

77° - 91 ° W

08 ° S

HSX

AUG-21

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (SHORT PERIOD FLUCTUATION) :

 

faded8 AUG

11827

19° - 33 ° W

19 ° S

BXO

 

       

X-RAY/ SUNSPOTS >

DROPPING

ERUPTIONS >

LOW

 
 

11828

22° - 36 ° W

14 ° N

AXX/ BXO

AUG-25

        LAST X RAY MINIMUM LAST X-RAY MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

   
faded (AUG 24)

11829

75° - 89 ° W

05 ° N

CRO/AXX

AUG-24

 

 

 

 

20130611

20130710

 

 
rotated out (AUG-25)

11830

81° - 95 ° W

06 ° S

CAO/ HSX

 

     

 

 

 

rotated out (AUG-25

11831

76° - 90 ° W

13 ° N

CAO/ DRO

         

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
faded (AUG-24)

11832

62° - 76 ° W

25 ° N

CRO/ BXO

       

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
faded (AUG-25)

11833

07° - 21 ° W

19 ° N

AXX

        *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
 

11834

46°- 32° E

13 ° N

BXO

AUG- 30

             
 

11835

53° - 39 ° E

10 ° S

BRO

AUG 30

             

SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

07

 

        INTERPLANETARY. CURRENT STATE:    

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

          PROTON FLUX

ELEVATED

HIGHER AFTER SAP/ 20130818/ 00 UTC

< RISING ON BACK TO NORMAL:

DECREASING

 
              ELECTRON FLUX

LOW/ NORMAL

HIGHER AFTER SAP/ 20130818/18 UTC

< RISING ON DROPPING UNTIL>

20130827/ 18 UTC

 

internal remarks:

 

 

       

 

PROTON STORM ENDED DECREASING INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

 

 
         
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Aug, 29 Aug, 30 Aug)

 

 

                         
TODAY`S NEW SOLAR EVENTS: SOLAR EVENTS:
                 
NONE                
 
   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

 

 

 

         
        * note: Due to the necessary evaluation of incoming data, NOAA space weather alerts are oftenly BACKDATED!  

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

QUIET

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT (2)

PAST 24 h

REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

UNSETTLED

 

X RAY EVENT (FLARES)

NONE NONE

 

ACTIVE

CME

TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION NONE

NONE

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

R 1

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

NONE

 

MAJOR STORM

G 1

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

cancelled  
               

ONGOINGCME IMPACT

. MAX. GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -2 nT at 09:41 UTC NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 1 nT/ 21:00 UTC  
  EFFECTIVE PROTONS

19:20 UTC

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS  

 

       

 

           
CURRENTLY ACTIVE SOLAR PARTICLE EVENTS (SAP)

SOLAR EVENT ( SAT)

20130817/ 18:31 UTC

PROTON IMPACT/ DURATION:

20130819/ 06 UTC

ELECTRON ACUMMULATION:

ongoing

 
EVENT LOG/ REPORT: appr. PROTON SPEED: 8300

km/ second

later < HIGHEST PROTON VALUES HIGHEST ELECTRON VALUES

> 10 MeV

(start:) 20130824/ 10 UTC (end:) ongoing  
                   
REPORT/ EVOLUTION OF CURRENT SOLAR PARTICLE EVENT

 

IMPACT DURATION: TODAY- ALERT LEVEL(2) LAST 2 DAYS PARTICLE VALUES (2) pfu= solar particle units  

SAP TYPE:

SOLAR EVENT ON

ERUPTION TYPE

PROTON SPEED:

BEGIN

END

PEAK: PARTICLE TYPES YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3): PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)  
PROTON FLARES :

20130815

proton flares ( AR11817-19

(ACE/ INTERPLANETARY)

20130815/ 08 UTC

20130817/ 08 UTC

  > 10 MeV PROTONS(4)

 

     
SAP: 20130817

2 CMEs (AR 11817 and 11818)

appr 8300 km/ sec.

20130817/23 UTC

20130819/ 06 UTC

0.7 pfu.

> 10 MeV PROTONS(4)        
    resumed- AUG- 20- 2013 after 6 UTC PROTON FLUX RISING AGAIN

20130820/ 06 UTC

20130822/ 12 UTC

2.0 pfu

> 10 MeV PROTONS(4) > 0.1 < 0.5 pfu. > 0.1 < 0.5 pfu. minimal elevated  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS                  

EFFECTIVE > 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS:

 

ELECTRON ACCUMULATION >

20130816/08 UTC

ongoing 1.005. 000

>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS (1)

>2.000< 80.000 pfu (LOW HSS)

>3.000< 100.000 pfu (LOW HSS)

 
EFFECTIVE > 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS:

NOAA:

ELECTRON ACCUMULATION > 20130816/08 UTC

ongoing

10.500

>2.0 MeV ELECTRONS(1)

>08 < 4.000 pfu

>20 < 5.500 pfu

 

   

NEUTRONS-P/E SYNTHESIS*

(3) <- > - no data

< - 6.2 > - 7.8

   

SOLAR STORMS (SAPor SEP ) ARE INTENSIVE EMISSIONS OF HIGH ACCELERATED SOLAR PARTICLES ( PROTON/ ELECTRONS)

  (2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report)    
* SAP OR:" SEP" = SOLAR ACCELERATED (OR: ENERGETIC) PARTICLES (PR., EL.) (1) treshold for electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu   (3) yesterday average values (4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu < ABBREVIATIONS/ CLASS.  

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM * compared to " normal" values INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 440 km/s at 27/2045Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 27/1744Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 27/1810Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1407 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (28 Aug, 29 Aug, 30 Aug).

 

 

 

             
           

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

          (INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS  
     
       
 

CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL EVENTS

LAST UPDATE

20130828            
GEOMAGNETIC STORM   CME IMPACT (CLUSTER)

APPROACHING CMEs :

0

 
SEP (SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS)

STRENGTH >

LOW (1-2)
 

electron activity began significantly to decrease on Aug 27. > 2 MeV electrons dropped below treshold after 12 UTC. Its unclear yet, whether this already marks the end of the last SEP event ( 20130817) . Yet it seems that this decrease is related to the end of the HSS from decaying CH 581 that closed on August 26. I was busy on August 27 and did not control the electron flux anymore after 12 UTC, thus I made this update late early on Aug 28. However- again Earthquake activity increased soon after electron flux dropped below treshold of 1000 pfu , what confirms again and once more , that my theories of tectonic heating (= volcanism) and cooling down (contraction earthquakes) following (and related to) solar CMEs (esp. SEPs) seem to be correct and proves again, that the geomag electron flux seems to be most likely a simple but also very reliable and precise tool and indicator to predict earthquakes and volcanism .SIMPLE PHYSICS. Further evidence will be collected!

 

SEP BEGIN(SOLAR)

20130817/18:21

> 10 MeVPROTONS: ended/ normal  

EFFECTIVE UNTIL (ESTIMATED) :

20130831

> 2 MeV ELECTRONS: > 1.000 pfu  
       

LATEST TREND ON SOLAR DATA PLOTS at the time of this update:

> 2 MeV ELECTRONS:

dropping!  
       

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130820/21

EFFECTIVE CMEs/ int. Nrs. >

MINOR SEP AND 2 CMEs Nr. 34/ 13 a,b,

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

CME EFFECTIVITY:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / HOT SPOTS (-) N& S- AMERICA LONGITUDES: 30° - 90° W/ 150- 180° W ACCUMULATING SAP events (HIGH!)

 

ALERT LEVEL

* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

 
DECREASING ELECTRON ACTIVITY

SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS/ TORNADOES (-)

SOUTH AMERICA/ W

PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< NASCA

IMPACT HEMISPHERE:

 

DROPPING ELECTRONS ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES TODAY ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3) hh

POLAR HEATING EFF. /GLACIAL MELTDOWNS CENTRAL AMERICA

ATLANTIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< CARRIBEAN >< COCOS

NORTH

 

27. AUGUST 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

EAST & CTR: PACIFIC PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< INDO-AUS

 

 

M 5.5- 6.5 (POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (SLIGHTLY RISING!)

 
INDUCED CURRENTS (POSSIBLE) SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS : SEVERAL RECENT SAP EVENTS AND CMES HAVE ACCUMULATED A HIGH POTENTIAL OF (HEAT-) ENERGY WITHIN THE EARTH BODY!

 

28. AUGUST 2013

 
RADIO BLACKOUTS PACIFIC/ EURO- EAST LONGITUDES : 180°- 90° E

 

M 5.5- 7.0 (POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (RISING? )

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) EASTERN ATLANTIC

EURASIA >< N- AMERICA>

 

29. AUGUST 2013

 

ELECTRON STORM AFTER PROTON STORM (-)

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS:

 

M 5.5- 7.5 (POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (PRELIMINARY)

 

SEP EFFECTS:

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (-)

EURASIA

LONGITUDES : 90° E - 00- 30° W *REGIONS> see definition below

 

LATENCIES:

 
TECTONICS ELECTRONS HEATING UP TECTONIC PLATES

VOLCANO/ HOT SPOT ACTIVITY >

DECREASING

 

INFLUENCES:

ACTIVE ELECTRONS AFTER PROTON FLARES MINOR PROTON STORM (SAP)  

EARTHQUAKES

TECTONICS COOLING DOWN (+) ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY >>> LATENCY ENDING? electron activity is decreasing since AUG 27- 13 UTC

 

EFFECTING AS >

INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS:  
NEXT TIME OUTLOOK :               (TODAY`S EQ FORECAST IS ONLY PRELIMINARY AND MIGHT BE REVISED LATER TODAY)  

LAST UPDATE/ AUGUST 20. SINGLE STRONGER EARTHQUAKES POSSIBLE IN THE COMING DAYS UNTIL AUG 24. - (HOT SPOT) VOLCANISM AND THE CHANCE FOR SUDDEN UNEXPECTED THUNDERSTORMS/ TORNADOES WILL INCREASE AFTER AUG 23

 

abbreviations:

 

(+) means: this activity is INCREASING

(-) means: This activity is DECREASING

 

* SAP/SEP = Solar Accelerated /Energetic PARTICLES (Protons, Electrons)

 
NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!  
     

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

AUGUST

 

DAY:

26

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 

      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERT ISSUED AT:

 

 

 

EPICENTER/ MAP AFFECTED REGION(S)

 

 
Note:, as earthquake data are oftenly revised the next day by EMSC,this section will mostly be completed later this day . ! click here for MEDIA report

 

CANCELLED AT:

 

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS >

NOAA TSUNAMI ALERT REPORT:

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.2 - KURIL ISLANDS - 2013-08-26 04:58:53 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

49.58 N ; 155.65 E

DEPTH >

60 km

WAVE/HEIGHT

 

FREQUENCY

 

 

 

                 

note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!

 
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  

WATCHING: EXTRAORDINARY AND NEW EVENTS AND REGIONS:

NUMBER= ALL EVENTS AS LISTED BY EMSC OR USGS

numbered are events > M 2.0 with single events exceeding magnitude M 4.0.

 

PANAMERICA

FREQUENT SINCE 2012

"D"

MAP

02 x > M 2

N & SOUTH AMERICA >< COCOS M 4.5 - GUERRERO, MEXICO - 2013-08-26 12:54:01 UTC  
LOW MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKES THOSE ARE RATHER SWARMS OR VOLCANIC TREMORS:    

GERMANY / NEAR TO KOBLENZ ( EIFEL VOLCANIC FIELD)

SELDOM

"E"

MAP

01

EURASIA (volcanic) M 1.5 - BELGIUM - 2013-08-26 16:48:19 UTC  

MEDITERRANEAN SEA REGION (ALL)

FREQUENT

"E"

MAP   AFRICA >< EURASIA M 3.7 - SICILY, ITALY - 2013-08-26 03:45:25 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  
 
                       

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 

         
   

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
SOURCES>> NASA/ GOES EUMETSAT METEOSAT (EUROPE)

NOAA/ Hurricane Center

METEOALARM

usno.navy.mil NOAA  
ATLANTIC:                  

:

  CATHEGORIES  
:wunderground.com NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION DIRECTION TYPE/ CATH  
Tropical Depression Fernand AUG- 24- 2013 NORTHERN ATLANTIC

35 MPH (+)

97.7° W

20.3° N

map currently not available

NW

TD

 
                   
PACIFIC                    
:wunderground.com NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION DIRECTION TYPE/ CATH  
Invest 95E AUG- 24- 2013 EASTERN PACIFIC 30 MPH ()

98.9° W

15.2° N

NEAR MEXICO CITY

WNW

L

 
Tropical Storm Kong-rey AUG- 25- 2013 EASTERN PACIFIC

40 MPH ()

124.1° E

17.3 ° N

150 km EAST THE COAST OF LUCON/ PHILIPPINES

NW

TS

 
                     
                     
                    ^^ NOAA REAL TIME METEOSAT  

VARIOUS REPORTS:_

                   
                           

HEADLINES

 

 

 

       

2013

  VARIOUS SOURCES  
       
     
                           
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

35

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

292-384

FLARES >

C

 

 

CH UNN:

NORTH

QUICKLY GROWING

AUG- 23-

AUG. 28- 29

 

 

SOLAR FLUX (SFU)

112.2

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 3.1

 

M

 

 

CH 581

NORTH

DECAYING

AUG- 18-

AUG. 21-22

RECURRENT

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

04

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

55- 110 nT

under proton influence

X

 

 

           

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

     

2013

   

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

           

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 

 

11823

62° - 76 ° W

08 ° S

HSX

AUG-21

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (SHORT PERIOD FLUCTUATION) :

 

 

11827

19° - 33 ° W

19 ° S

BXO

 

       

X-RAY/ SUNSPOTS >

DROPPING

ERUPTIONS >

LOW

 
 

11828

12° - 26 ° W

14 ° N

CRO

AUG-25

        LAST X RAY MINIMUM LAST X-RAY MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

   
faded (AUG 24)

11829

75° - 89 ° W

05 ° N

CRO/AXX

AUG-24

 

 

 

 

20130611

20130710

 

 
rotated out (AUG-25)

11830

81° - 95 ° W

06 ° S

CAO/ HSX

 

     

 

 

 

rotated out (AUG-25

11831

76° - 90 ° W

13 ° N

CAO/ DRO

         

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
faded (AUG-24)

11832

62° - 76 ° W

25 ° N

CRO/ BXO

       

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
faded (AUG-25)

11833

07° - 21 ° W

19 ° N

AXX

        *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
 

11834

58°- 44° E

13 ° N

BXO

AUG- 29

             
 

11835

67° - 53 ° E

10 ° S

HSX/ CHO

AUG 30

             

SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

02

 

        INTERPLANETARY. CURRENT STATE:    

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

          PROTON FLUX

ELEVATED

HIGHER AFTER SAP/ 20130818/ 00 UTC

< RISING ON BACK TO NORMAL:

DECREASING

 
              ELECTRON FLUX

LOW/ NORMAL

HIGHER AFTER SAP/ 20130818/18 UTC

< RISING ON DROPPING UNTIL>

20130827/ 18 UTC

 

internal remarks:

 

 

       

 

PROTON STORM ENDED DECREASING INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

 

 
         
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: ???? IB. Solar Activity Forecast: ????

 

 

                         
                 
 
   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

 

 

 

         
        * note: Due to the necessary evaluation of incoming data, NOAA space weather alerts are oftenly BACKDATED!  

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

QUIET

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT (2)

PAST 24 h

REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

UNSETTLED

 

X RAY EVENT (FLARES)

NONE NONE

 

ACTIVE

CME

TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION NONE

NONE

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

R 1

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

NONE

 

MAJOR STORM

G 1

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

cancelled

G 1 (predicted)  
               

ONGOINGCME IMPACT

. MAX. GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -2 nT at 19:45 UTC NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 1 nT/ 21:00 UTC  
  EFFECTIVE PROTONS

19:20 UTC

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS  

 

       

 

           
CURRENTLY ACTIVE SOLAR PARTICLE EVENTS (SAP)

SOLAR EVENT ( SAT)

20130817/ 18:31 UTC

PROTON IMPACT/ DURATION:

20130819/ 06 UTC

ELECTRON ACUMMULATION:

ongoing

 
EVENT LOG/ REPORT: appr. PROTON SPEED: 8300

km/ second

later < HIGHEST PROTON VALUES HIGHEST ELECTRON VALUES

> 10 MeV

(start:) 20130824/ 10 UTC (end:) ongoing  
                   
REPORT/ EVOLUTION OF CURRENT SOLAR PARTICLE EVENT

 

IMPACT DURATION: TODAY- ALERT LEVEL(2) LAST 2 DAYS PARTICLE VALUES (2) pfu= solar particle units  

SAP TYPE:

SOLAR EVENT ON

ERUPTION TYPE

PROTON SPEED:

BEGIN

END

PEAK: PARTICLE TYPES YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3): PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)  
PROTON FLARES :

20130815

proton flares ( AR11817-19

(ACE/ INTERPLANETARY)

20130815/ 08 UTC

20130817/ 08 UTC

  > 10 MeV PROTONS(4)

 

     
SAP: 20130817

2 CMEs (AR 11817 and 11818)

appr 8300 km/ sec.

20130817/23 UTC

20130819/ 06 UTC

0.7 pfu.

> 10 MeV PROTONS(4)        
    resumed- AUG- 20- 2013 after 6 UTC PROTON FLUX RISING AGAIN

20130820/ 06 UTC

20130822/ 12 UTC

2.0 pfu

> 10 MeV PROTONS(4) > 0.1 < 0.5 pfu. > 0.1 < 0.5 pfu. minimal elevated  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS                  

EFFECTIVE > 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS:

 

ELECTRON ACCUMULATION >

20130816/08 UTC

ongoing 1.005. 000

>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS (1)

>3.000< 100.000 pfu (LOW HSS)

>3.000< 105.000 pfu ( LOW HSS)

 
EFFECTIVE > 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS:

NOAA:

ELECTRON ACCUMULATION > 20130816/08 UTC

ongoing

10.500

>2.0 MeV ELECTRONS(1)

>20 < 5.500 pfu

>400 < 10.000 pfu

 

   

NEUTRONS-P/E SYNTHESIS*

(3) <- > - no data

< - 6.2 > - 7.8

   

SOLAR STORMS (SAPor SEP ) ARE INTENSIVE EMISSIONS OF HIGH ACCELERATED SOLAR PARTICLES ( PROTON/ ELECTRONS)

  (2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report)    
* SAP OR:" SEP" = SOLAR ACCELERATED (OR: ENERGETIC) PARTICLES (PR., EL.) (1) treshold for electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu   (3) yesterday average values (4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu < ABBREVIATIONS/ CLASS.  

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM * compared to " normal" values INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: ????

 

 

 

             
           

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

          (INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS  
     
       
 

CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL EVENTS

LAST UPDATE

20130823    
SEP (SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS)

STRENGTH >

LOW (1-2)
 
             

SEP BEGIN(SOLAR)

20130817/18:21 > 10 MeVPROTONS: ended/ normal  
GEOMAGNETIC STORM   CME IMPACT (CLUSTER) APPROACHING CMEs : 00  

EFFECTIVE UNTIL (ESTIMATED) :

AUG- 31- 2013 > 2 MeV ELECTRONS: > 1.000 pfu  
       

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130820/21

EFFECTIVE CMEs/ int. Nrs. >

MINOR SEP AND 2 CMEs Nr. 34/ 13 a,b,

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

CME EFFECTIVITY:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / HOT SPOTS (+) N& S- AMERICA LONGITUDES: 30° - 90° W/ 150- 180° W ACCUMULATING SAP events (HIGH!)

 

ALERT LEVEL

* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

 
ACTIVE ELECTRONS

SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS/ TORNADOES(+)

SOUTH AMERICA/ W

PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< NASCA

IMPACT HEMISPHERE:

 

ACTIVE ELECTRONS ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES TODAY ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3) hh

POLAR HEATING EFF. /GLACIAL MELTDOWNS CENTRAL AMERICA

ATLANTIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< CARRIBEAN >< COCOS

NORTH

 

26. AUGUST 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

EAST & CTR: PACIFIC PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< INDO-AUS

 

 

M 5.5- 6.5 (POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (POSSIBLE)

 
INDUCED CURRENTS (POSSIBLE) SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS : SEVERAL RECENT SAP EVENTS AND CMES HAVE ACCUMULATED A HIGH POTENTIAL OF (HEAT-) ENERGY WITHIN THE EARTH BODY!

 

27. AUGUST 2013

 
RADIO BLACKOUTS PACIFIC/ EURO- EAST LONGITUDES : 180°- 90° E

 

M 5.5- 6.5 ? (POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (POSSIBLE)

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) EASTERN ATLANTIC

EURASIA >< N- AMERICA>

 

28. AUGUST 2013

 

ELECTRON STORM AFTER PROTON STORM (-)

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS:

 

M 5.5- 6.5 (POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (PRELIMINARY)

 

SEP EFFECTS:

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (-)

EURASIA

LONGITUDES : 90° E - 00- 30° W *REGIONS> see definition below

 

LATENCIES:

 
TECTONICS ELECTRONS HEATING UP TECTONIC PLATES

VOLCANO/ HOT SPOT ACTIVITY >

HIGHER

 

INFLUENCES:

ACTIVE ELECTRONS AFTER PROTON FLARES MINOR PROTON STORM (SAP)  

EARTHQUAKES

TECTONICS COOLING DOWN (+) ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY >>> LATENCY (active electrons)

 

EFFECTING AS >

INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS:  
NEXT TIME OUTLOOK :               (TODAY`S EQ FORECAST IS ONLY PRELIMINARY AND MIGHT BE REVISED LATER TODAY)  

LAST UPDATE/ AUGUST 20. SINGLE STRONGER EARTHQUAKES POSSIBLE IN THE COMING DAYS UNTIL AUG 24. - (HOT SPOT) VOLCANISM AND THE CHANCE FOR SUDDEN UNEXPECTED THUNDERSTORMS/ TORNADOES WILL INCREASE AFTER AUG 23

 

abbreviations:

 

(+) means: this activity is INCREASING

(-) means: This activity is DECREASING

 

* SAP/SEP = Solar Accelerated /Energetic PARTICLES (Protons, Electrons)

 
NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!  
     

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

AUGUST

 

DAY:

25

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 

      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERT ISSUED AT:

 

 

 

EPICENTER/ MAP AFFECTED REGION(S)

 

 
Note:, as earthquake data are oftenly revised the next day by EMSC,this section will mostly be completed later this day . ! click here for MEDIA report

 

CANCELLED AT:

 

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS >

NOAA TSUNAMI ALERT REPORT:

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.8 - SOUTHWEST INDIAN RIDGE - 2013-08-25 16:07:15 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

33.52 S ; 57.05 E

DEPTH >

10 km

WAVE/HEIGHT

 

FREQUENCY

 

 

 

                 

note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!

 
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0):

 

REGION INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES/ INDIA

FREQUENT

"A"

MAP

03

EURASIA >< / INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.1 - OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA - 2013-08-25 04:00:04 UTC  

PANAMERICA

FREQUENT SINCE 2012

"D"

MAP

01

N & SOUTH AMERICA >< COCOS M 5.0 - NORTHERN COLOMBIA - 2013-08-25 23:35:56 UTC  

WATCHING: EXTRAORDINARY AND NEW EVENTS AND REGIONS:

NUMBER= ALL EVENTS AS LISTED BY EMSC OR USGS

numbered are events > M 2.0 with single events exceeding magnitude M 4.0.

 

NORTHERN EUROPE/ ARCTIC SEA

JULA- 15- 2013

"E"

MAP   N-AMERICA >< EURASIA M 4.0 - ICELAND REGION - 2013-08-25 07:00:39 UTC  
      MAP

01

  M 3.3 - UNITED KINGDOM - 2013-08-25 09:58:35 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  
 
                       

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 

         
   

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
SOURCES>> NASA/ GOES EUMETSAT METEOSAT (EUROPE)

NOAA/ Hurricane Center

METEOALARM

usno.navy.mil NOAA  
                 

REPORTS BY:

:wunderground.com CATHEGORIES  
ATLANTIC: NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION DIRECTION TYPE/ CATH  
Invest 95L AUG- 24- 2013 NORTHERN ATLANTIC

30 MPH (+)

95.1° W

19.4° N

GOM/ OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO

W

L

 
                   
CENTRAL PACIFIC: CURRENTLY: NONE                  
EASTERN PACIFIC: NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION DIRECTION TYPE/ CATH  
  Invest 95E AUG- 24- 2013 EASTERN PACIFIC 30 MPH ()

95.8° W

14.0° N

NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO

WNW

L

 
Tropical Depression Ivo AUG- 24- 2013 EASTERN PACIFIC

35 MPH ()

114.9° W

25.1 ° N

100 km SW OFFSHORE GULF OF CALIFORNIA

NNW

TD

 
WESTERN PACIFIC: Tropical Depression Pewa

AUG- 15- 2013

WESTERN PACIFIC

30 MPH (-)

166.7° E

28.5° N

map currently not working

WNW

TD

 
                   
                    ^^ NOAA REAL TIME METEOSAT  

VARIOUS REPORTS:_

                   
                           

HEADLINES

20130825

 

 

       

2013

  VARIOUS SOURCES  

(BBC- 20130826) California Rim Fire showers ash on reservoir

A huge fire in and around California's Yosemite National Park has continued to spread and now covers almost 230 sq miles (600 sq km), officials say. The Rim Fire is now raining ash on a key reservoir that supplies water and hydro-electric power to San Francisco. City officials say they are moving water to lower reservoirs and monitoring supplies for contamination. The blaze is also threatening thousands of homes and some of California's renowned giant sequoia trees.....read more...

(telegraph.uk/ 20130825)Irish Sea quake aftershocks warning

Aftershocks from two earthquakes that struck in the Irish Sea may be felt for days to come, it has been claimed.The Irish National Seismic Network (INSN) said the quakes, which occurred this morning off the north west coast of England, were probably caused by stresses built up from the weight of glaciers covering land during the Ice Age. INSN director Tom Blake said it was unusual that the earthquakes - measuring 2.4 and then a stronger 3.3 on the Richter scale - happened in the Irish Sea. "It is impossible to tell if stronger earthquakes will occur in the coming days and weeks, but aftershocks can be expected even if most, if not all, will be too weak to be felt," Mr Blake said....read more...

( KSTP- 20130825) USA: MN Reaches Record Temps, Excessive Heat Warning Issued

   
(NASA/ MODIS- 20130822) RIM FIRE, CALIFORNIA    
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

46

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

347-484

FLARES >

C

 

 

CH UNN:

NORTH

QUICKLY GROWING

AUG- 23-

AUG. 28- 29

 

 

SOLAR FLUX (SFU)

112.6

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 3.6

 

M

 

 

CH 581

NORTH

DECAYING

AUG- 18-

AUG. 21-22

RECURRENT

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

05

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

45- 105 nT

under proton influence

X

 

 

           

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

     

2013

   

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

rotating out >

11820

81° - 95 ° W

51 ° S

HSX

AUG- 18

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 

 

11823

49° - 63 ° W

08 ° S

HSX

AUG-21

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (SHORT PERIOD FLUCTUATION) :

 

 

11827

07° - 21 ° W

19 ° S

BXO

 

       

X-RAY/ SUNSPOTS >

DROPPING

ERUPTIONS >

ACTIVE

 
 

11828

03° E - 11 ° W

14 ° N

HRX/ CRO

AUG-25

        LAST X RAY MINIMUM LAST X-RAY MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

   
faded (AUG 24)

11829

75° - 89 ° W

05 ° N

CRO/AXX

AUG-24

 

 

 

 

20130611

20130710

 

 
rotating out >

11830

81° - 95 ° W

06 ° S

CAO/ HSX

 

     

 

 

 

rotating out >

11831

76° - 90 ° W

13 ° N

CAO/ DRO

         

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
faded (AUG-24)

11832

62° - 76 ° W

25 ° N

CRO/ BXO

       

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
 

11833

07° - 21 ° W

19 ° N

AXX

        *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
NEWLY EMERGED>

11834

69°- 55° E

13 ° N

BXO

AUG- 29

             
NEWLY EMERGED>

11835

80° - 66 ° E

10 ° S

HSX/ HXX

AUG 30

             

SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

07

 

        INTERPLANETARY. CURRENT STATE:    

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

          PROTON FLUX

ELEVATED

HIGHER AFTER SAP/ 20130818/ 00 UTC

< RISING ON BACK TO NORMAL:

DECREASING

 
              ELECTRON FLUX

ELEVATED

HIGHER AFTER SAP/ 20130818/18 UTC

< RISING ON DROPPING UNTIL>

DECREASING

 

internal remarks:

 

 

       

 

PROTON STORM ENDED DECREASING INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

 

 
         
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Aug, 27 Aug, 28 Aug).

 

 

                         
TODAY`S NEW SOLAR EVENTS: SOLAR EVENTS:
                 

TYPE OF EVENT

DATE OF EVENT

Int CME Nr.:

impact on:

DESCRIPTION

              SOURCE: INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  
                 

 

 

 

     
20130822/ 23:38 UTC 20130823/ 00:25 UTC 20130824/ 09:28 UTC       20130825/ 19:54 UTC  
   
 
 
 
 
 

SDO /AIA-comp

SDO /AIA-comp SDO /AIA-comp (2) SDO /AIA-comp SDO /AIA-comp

(4) SoHO/ LASCO C32

SoHO/ LASCO C 3 ^GOES/ introgeomagnetic proton Flux ^ ^GOES/ X Ray flux ^  
                 
sveral prominences and filament eruptions occured between August 22 and Aug 24, those had Earth directed parts in their ejectas. ACE shows that they contained mainly protons. The impact occured on August 27 after 13 UTC was above 150 nT and caused geomagnetic storming.
 
   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

 

 

 

         
        * note: Due to the necessary evaluation of incoming data, NOAA space weather alerts are oftenly BACKDATED!  

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

QUIET

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT (2)

PAST 24 h

REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

UNSETTLED

 

X RAY EVENT (FLARES)

NONE NONE

 

ACTIVE

CME

TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION NONE

NONE

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

R 1

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

NONE

 

MAJOR STORM

G 1

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

G 1 (predicted)

cancelled  
               

ONGOINGCME IMPACT

. MAX. GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -2 nT at 22:00 UTC NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 1 nT/ 21:00 UTC  
  EFFECTIVE PROTONS

19:20 UTC

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS  

 

       

 

           
CURRENTLY ACTIVE SOLAR PARTICLE EVENTS (SAP)

SOLAR EVENT ( SAT)

20130817/ 18:31 UTC

PROTON IMPACT/ DURATION:

20130819/ 06 UTC

ELECTRON ACUMMULATION:

ongoing

 
EVENT LOG/ REPORT: appr. PROTON SPEED: 8300

km/ second

later < HIGHEST PROTON VALUES HIGHEST ELECTRON VALUES

> 10 MeV

(start:) 20130824/ 10 UTC (end:) ongoing  
                   
REPORT/ EVOLUTION OF CURRENT SOLAR PARTICLE EVENT

 

IMPACT DURATION: TODAY- ALERT LEVEL(2) LAST 2 DAYS PARTICLE VALUES (2) pfu= solar particle units  

SAP TYPE:

SOLAR EVENT ON

ERUPTION TYPE

PROTON SPEED:

BEGIN

END

PEAK: PARTICLE TYPES YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3): PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)  
PROTON FLARES :

20130815

proton flares ( AR11817-19

(ACE/ INTERPLANETARY)

20130815/ 08 UTC

20130817/ 08 UTC

  > 10 MeV PROTONS(4)

 

     
SAP: 20130817

2 CMEs (AR 11817 and 11818)

appr 8300 km/ sec.

20130817/23 UTC

20130819/ 06 UTC

0.7 pfu.

> 10 MeV PROTONS(4)        
    resumed- AUG- 20- 2013 after 6 UTC PROTON FLUX RISING AGAIN

20130820/ 06 UTC

20130822/ 12 UTC

2.0 pfu

> 10 MeV PROTONS(4) > 0.1 < 0.5 pfu. > 0.1 < 0.5 pfu. minimal elevated  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS                  

EFFECTIVE > 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS:

 

ELECTRON ACCUMULATION >

20130816/08 UTC

ongoing 1.005. 000

>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS (1)

>3.000< 105.000 pfu(CME/ HSS- disturbance)

>08< 100.000 pfu(CME/ HSS- disturbance)

 
EFFECTIVE > 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS:

NOAA:

ELECTRON ACCUMULATION > 20130816/08 UTC

ongoing

10.500

>2.0 MeV ELECTRONS(1)

>400 < 10.000 pfu

>3 < 6.000 pfu (rising after CME)

 

   

NEUTRONS-P/E SYNTHESIS*

(3) < - 6.2 > - 7.8

< - 6.2 > - 7.7

   

SOLAR STORMS (SAPor SEP ) ARE INTENSIVE EMISSIONS OF HIGH ACCELERATED SOLAR PARTICLES ( PROTON/ ELECTRONS)

  (2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report)    
* SAP OR:" SEP" = SOLAR ACCELERATED (OR: ENERGETIC) PARTICLES (PR., EL.) (1) treshold for electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu   (3) yesterday average values (4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu < ABBREVIATIONS/ CLASS.  

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM * compared to " normal" values INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 456 km/s at 25/0703Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 24/2118Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 25/1005Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1871 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (26 Aug, 27 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (28 Aug).

 

 

 

             
           

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

          (INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS  
     
       
 

CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL EVENTS

LAST UPDATE

20130823    
SEP (SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS)

STRENGTH >

LOW (1-2)
 
             

SEP BEGIN(SOLAR)

20130817/18:21 > 10 MeVPROTONS: ended/ normal  
GEOMAGNETIC STORM   CME IMPACT (CLUSTER) APPROACHING CMEs : 00  

EFFECTIVE UNTIL (ESTIMATED) :

AUG- 31- 2013 > 2 MeV ELECTRONS: > 1.000 pfu  
       

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130820/21

EFFECTIVE CMEs/ int. Nrs. >

MINOR SEP AND 2 CMEs Nr. 34/ 13 a,b,

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

CME EFFECTIVITY:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / HOT SPOTS (+) N& S- AMERICA LONGITUDES: 30° - 90° W/ 150- 180° W ACCUMULATING SAP events (HIGH!)

 

ALERT LEVEL

* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

 
ACTIVE ELECTRONS

SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS/ TORNADOES(+)

SOUTH AMERICA/ W

PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< NASCA

IMPACT HEMISPHERE:

 

ACTIVE ELECTRONS ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES TODAY ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3) hh

POLAR HEATING EFF. /GLACIAL MELTDOWNS CENTRAL AMERICA

ATLANTIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< CARRIBEAN >< COCOS

NORTH

 

25. AUGUST 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

EAST & CTR: PACIFIC PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< INDO-AUS

 

 

M 5.5- 6.5 (POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (POSSIBLE)

 
INDUCED CURRENTS (POSSIBLE) SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS : SEVERAL RECENT SAP EVENTS AND CMES HAVE ACCUMULATED A HIGH POTENTIAL OF (HEAT-) ENERGY WITHIN THE EARTH BODY!

 

26. AUGUST 2013

 
RADIO BLACKOUTS PACIFIC/ EURO- EAST LONGITUDES : 180°- 90° E

 

M 5.5- 6.5 ? (POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (POSSIBLE)

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) EASTERN ATLANTIC

EURASIA >< N- AMERICA>

 

27. AUGUST 2013

 

ELECTRON STORM AFTER PROTON STORM (-)

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS:

 

M 5.5- 6.5 (POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (PRELIMINARY)

 

SEP EFFECTS:

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (-)

EURASIA

LONGITUDES : 90° E - 00- 30° W *REGIONS> see definition below

 

LATENCIES:

 
TECTONICS ELECTRONS HEATING UP TECTONIC PLATES

VOLCANO/ HOT SPOT ACTIVITY >

HIGHER

 

INFLUENCES:

ACTIVE ELECTRONS AFTER PROTON FLARES MINOR PROTON STORM (SAP)  

EARTHQUAKES

TECTONICS COOLING DOWN (+) ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY >>> LATENCY (active electrons)

 

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