-----------------------

 

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alien- homepage.de- Earth quake statistics- -SUN SPOT ACTIVITY- 11- years solar cycle- last update: DECEMBER 15 2013- -07:00 UTC copyright: reserved

background image: Aurora Borealis /COMMONS / wikipedia
open source earthquake forecast project created and provided by: alien-homepage.de-

note: On November 01 2013 I introduced a new format of this page , which will make it easier to load and watch for people with low resolution monitors-

According to NASA, this 24th. 11 year sun spot cycle has probably a " twin peak"- the second in 2015. This projekt therefore will be prolongued.
 
2012/ 13 - MAXIMUM OF 11- YEAR SOLAR CYCLE
SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG

ARCHIVE DECEMBER - 2013

NASA STEREO BEACON

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NOTE: I WILL INTRODUCE A NEW ARCHIVE SYSTEM IN 2012. CLICK ON THE BUTTON (right) FOR THE NEW ARCHIVE DIRECTORY! >

Note: Due to the high data amount in these monthly archives, I am currently trying to improve this by putting the single archives into collapsible panels.

Also I will split the monthly archive into 4 weekly ones. click on the following tabs to open the collapsible panels. You can report to my blog, if you should still experience problems when loading this page.

click here to open panel with graphics, volcano maps , earthquake statistic- DECEMBER- 2013
   
ALL KNOWN VOLCANOES WORLDWIDE, WEEKLY ACTIVITY UPDATES, WEBCAMS, and much more on my "REGIONAL VOLCANO " MAPS:
INTERNAL MAPS: click on the images or links below to get to my large regional maps, where you find all volcanoes around the world with descriptions , webcams and much more such as ancients sites! . Weekly regular activity updates, special earthquakes events with many functions

world volcano map 1.0

world volcano map version 2.0

Europe and Western Asia Africa and Arabic peninsula Central America and Mexico South America- Northern part South America- Southern part Central America and Mexico Northern America Kamchatka peninsula Japan region Indonesia and Philippines Australia and Southern Pacific

 

SPACECRAFTS:
SoHO
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
SDO /AIA
Solar Dynamics Observatory
STEREO
Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory
GOES
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites

ACE

 
 
 
 
 
 
Advanced Composition Explorer

^^ internal Earthquake statistics- with Sun activity curves : green = SUNSPOT NUMBER, Pink= SOLAR FLUX, blue= PLANETARY A INDEX- right image: planetary constellations in March 2013

click here to see some of the paradox observations made during that solar cycle first possibly by observatory sopacecrafts: : CORONAL HOLES THOSE REAPPEAR DURING SEVERAL SOLAR ROTATION PERIODS ON THE SAME HELIOGRAPHIC POSITION

 

VIDEOS/ REPORTS, SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL EVENTS- DECEMBER - 2013:

VIDEOS/ REPORTS OF THE WEEK

  none I had no time!
 
MAJOR EARTH DIRECTED CMEs :

 

 

update/ December 28: Another- and this time STRONGER SEP- the third within three weeks occured today on DECEMBER 28 .A possibly related solar event was observed at 18: 10 on SDO produced by AR 11936 (position: S17E19) The event was fully halo on SoHo. First protons arrive shortly before 19 UTC, Suggested , the solar event occured at 18:10 UTC. protons needed around 40 minutes to the Earth, what would result as a speed of around 62.000 km/ second. The fastest SEP in 2013 happened in May with protons at acclerated near to the speed of light. Protons flux rapidly increased after 19 UTC and is likely to exceed 10 pfu today. The effects of this SEP are not really measurable since more or less one SEP follows the other. The magnetic interactivity between protons and later atrackted electrons neutralizes each other on the instruments But i n reality the energies of following SEPs sum up and accumulate (so my estimation) to a critical amount of heat within the earth mantle. Several hot spots steady intensified their activities. Magmatic tremors on the Canaries have reached a magnitude above 5.4 on December 27. and heat within the earth mantle will even grow higher with this SEP and might give the canary hotspot the last push to erupt soon. If the sun does not make a rest with its SEPs, natural catastrophies from volcano eruptions to storms , floodings, weather anomalies and earthquakes in its final state very likely might reach global scale in January 2014..fas>>> AR 11936 on 20131228/ 18:10 UTC

 

 

 

 

 

update/ December 26: A new SEP was observed on December 26 with first protons impacting after 09 UTC The source of the event is unclear. There were numerous minor solar flares in the morning. The source of the SEP might have been an C class LDE in Region 11936.6. Proton rose above 1 pfu during December 26 . The event is ongoing

update/ December 25: Electron flux rapidly began to drop on December 25 after 00 UTC: This might be an indicator for an upcoming stronger Earth or Seaquake event in the regions as mentioned in my experminental Earthquake forecast below. Alert level was therefor raised after 17 UTC to red with a possibility of Earthquakes with magnitudes higher than M 7.5. (8.0?) in the coming two days

Numerous backside flare and CMEs occured on December 23 and 24. One minor associated frontside flare had effects on the geomagnetic field on December 25. On Dec 24. solar activity dropped to a kind of low or dead point, as also the geomagnetic field activity did/ does during each soltice (see x- ray graph right side).This year both values ramained rather high- Latest proton events have created adense electron accumulation around the Northern Poles, that causes the temperature anomalie responsible for the weather systems that took place around Christmas time on the northern Hemisohere This phenomenon of lower activities can be observed during both soltices, when he Sun and Earth allignes with the galactical Center of the Milky Way in Sagittarius A. As I could see on SDO images, astronomically calculated events such as New moon dates differ oftenly for several hours to that time when the moon indeed passes by in front of the SDO lense, what is on an geosychronous orbit right between the Earth and the Sun.. The Sun with its giant magnetic field seems to be EXTREMELY SENSITIVE to all kind of cosmical influences expecially gravity forces those accumulate during alignments of the sun with two or more planets or other celestial objects. With this side effect of the Solar magnetism, the Sun is best comparable with a giant amplifier: each weak signal you put in has a stronger impuls and reaction inside( also depending on tha acutual volume of that amplifier) The force of the gravity core in the middle of the milky way however influences and drags all stars planets and moon along until the outreaches of the Milky Way.The gravity connection to the galactic core on the December 24th just a bit compresses the Sun now and activity might strongy resume/ increase soon afterwards, likely already on December 25 and 26 with possible major flares and CMEs.

 

SOLAR EVENT- DECEMBER 19 201.3.Solar Sun Spot activity is likely dropping toone of its annual dead points during the solar soltices . These " dead points" twice a year during the soltices are likely caused by gravity accumulation during the alignment/ conjunction of the Earth, the Sun and the central core of the milky way during both soltices , resp. the giant black hole in Sagittarius (A) which influences all celestial bodies throughout the galaxy. Its nevertheless kind of mysterious, but unresearched yet, as this would mean, that not only the earth has influence on the solar sun spot activity, but the other planets might have as well.

 

ELDER SOLAR EVENT

 

CURRENTLY GEOEFFECTIVE SEP ( Solar Energetic Particles)

 

 

SOLAR EVENT- DECEMBER 21 2013

very unlikely for christmas time (winter soltice), x ray lavel exceeded C level on December 20, while sun spot number is still below 150 but also rising (differently to previous years, when it mostly dropped almost to zero during winter soltice). Along with fast growing and again decaying coronal holes this pattern is a typical indicator for upcoming major flares or stronger SEP those are likely in the coming days.

SOLAR EVENT- DECEMBER 20 2013

A belt of active regions stretches out about 30 degrees South of the solar equator. while the rest of the solar disc is almost empty. All regions are active on a low C level. Only AR 11931, which just appeared on the eastern solar horizon produced an impressive M 5 + flare on Dec 20 at 00:26 UTC.>>

 

SOLAR EVENT- DECEMBER 14 2013.A major CME impacted on DEC 14 after and caused geomagnetic storming. Proton flux had already sightly increased after the C flare on Dec 12 but rose further (out of an unknown reason- there was no visible associated a eruption ) on Dec 14. Possibly these protons were ejected with the flare on Dec 12 but are very slow. On Dec 15 after 18 UTC- the integral proton flux was back on normal level.

SOLAR EVENT- DECEMBER 12 2013 The tension that built up within the sun during the past week began to unleash with an impressive LDE flare in AR 11917 [near the central meridian at S16E17] that began after 07 UTC on December 12. Early SoHo images show a noticible partial halo CME expanding from that event. As the flare appeared rather strong but measured only C 5 and as latest Goes data indicate, the event might be related to an increase of integral proton flux. (= SEP event) Later GOES data have to be awaited to be sure

 

 

 

 

 

 

SOLAR/ TERRESTRIAL EVENT- DECEMBER 05- 07 2013 .The number of counted sun spots exceeded again 100 on December 05 while x ray background flux rose above C level. A large and very active region S2892/ 94 appeared on Dec 05 on the eastern limb and will rotate over the visible sun disc until Dec 18 (see images right side) . (img. 1) The region produced a stronger LDE flare and CME on Dec 05 , that was followed by a sudden impulsive flare in AR 11909 (img. 2) , that -appearently to SDO imagery-produced a minor - at least partially Earth directed- CME at around 21:10 UTC, that would- if - arrive on Dec 08/ 09. (img. 3) The region producedone eruption on DEC 07 at 0:10 UTC that pushed some solar material out into interplanetary space. (img. 4) The only partial Earth directed event was an M 1.2 impulsive flare in AR 11909 on Dec 7 at 7: 23 UTC, that was associated with a Type II radio emission.

 

 

 

 

STILL GEOEFFECTIVE EVENTS OF PREVIOUS MONTH:,

 

 

 

 

 

SOLAR/ TERRESTRIAL EVENT- NOVEMBER-28 2013 . After the solar sun spot activity had reached on Nov 17 2013 with 282 counted spots the highest level found during this entire 24. Sun spot cycle, activity dropped again to a low value until Nov 19. Meanwhile also official scientists suggest, there might by a relation between these activities and weather/ climate on Earth. The cold wave with temepratures down to minus 15° C in Souther Bavaria that suddenly creaped over the Northern Hemisphere on Nov 18 however occured coincidently with the dropping x ray background activity (the main indicator for sun spot activity. But also another temperature anomaly ( as typical after SEP events) has formed a frontline above central Europe and the N Hemisphere with warmer winds/ temp. on its northern and colder winds/ temp. on its Southern side , bringing sub zero temperatures to the South and warm weather in the Northern parts of Europe. The current state of the latest SEP remains unclear, since proton flux continued from the interplanetary field until Nov 18 and alters the measured electron values those therefore are still unreadable.

 

 

 

 

 

 

SOLAR EVENT- NOVEMBER-19 2013 . 11903 [S11E62] produced an impressive and major X 1 LED flare peaking from 10:25 until 10: 42 UTC . The event was associated to a MINOR SEP..First Protons impacted after 12.00 UTC- 1,5 hours after the event with a resulting speed of about 27.700 km/ second., but began to decrease again later on NOV 19 The CME going off from the Southwestern limb moves - as STEREO A imagery shows- pretty much towards the ecliptic plane. Thus the CME might have minor earth directed parts, those would arrive- if- then- sometime on Nov. 21.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       

 

 

 

click here to open and close collapsible panel with the archived "SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG" DECEMBER 22- 31 2013
   
   

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

DECEMBER

 

DAY:

31

 

     
                       

ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

   

TODAY`s EVENTS

 
                       
GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC      
  EPICENTER/ MAP    
highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>    

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.7 - BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES - 2013-12-31 20:01:07 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE > 19.07 N ; 120.44 E15 km DEPTH >      

 

             

RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

NONE ( DEFAULT) for current status, check out >
 
   
EARTHQUAKE REGIONS/ FROM 180° E ON WESTWARDS

TECTONICS:

FREQUENCY/ SINCE

REGION*

EPICENTER:

NUMBER

EVENT ( link to ESMC)  
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA/ KURIL ISLANDS / JAPAN N-AM. >< EUR. >< PAC.><PHIL. FREQUENT

"B"

EPICENTER 01 M 5.1 - NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN - 2013-12-31 01:02:59 UTC  
EASTERN PACIFIC/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC. PAC. >< INDO- AUS FREQUENT

"B"

EPICENTER 01 M 5.1 - SAMOA ISLANDS REGION - 2013-12-31 08:36:28 UTC  
REGION BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES EUR.>< / INDO- AUS. 20131231

"A"

EPICENTER 3 X > M 5 M 5.2 - BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES - 2013-12-31 21:32:03 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report  
 

 

 

                   
NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES
 
This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >
         

 

 

                     
TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS
             
                 
               
               
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
                   
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
INDIAN OCEAN:
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
Tropical Cyclone Bejisa DEC- 29- 2013 SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN 120 MPH (+) 53.4° E 13.3° N
200 KM EAST OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN MADAGASKAR
SE
TC (3)
 
                     
NOAA/ Hurricane Center NASA/ GOES NOAA usno.navy.mil METEOALARM METEOSAT

reports taken from:

 

 

 

               

HEADLINES

2013

 

 

         
 

(volcano-discovery- 20131231) Sinabung volcano (hot spot shield volcano/Sumatra, Indonesia) activity update

More and increasingly larger (and hence more dangerous) pyroclastic flows are being formed by the growing lava dome of the volcano. These "flows" are hot turbulent avalanches of hot blocks and ash in suspension with hot gas and air, that can travel down at great speed the slopes of the mountain, typically following the paths of valleys. Today, one of the pyroclastic flows reached a distance of 3000 m, ie. the lower slopes. It needs to be pointed out that anything living in the path of these flows is killed, and even larger structures usually destroyed or completely burned. The exclusion zone of 5 km currently in place seems clearly to be too small. Even without vertical explosions, co-ignimbrite ash plumes from the pyroclastic flows reached an altitude of 9 km.Contrary to some newspaper reports, there is currently NO lava flow. This could of course change if the lava from the dome becomes less viscous and becomes able to descend as a more or less coherent mass (lava flow) instead of breaking of and produce rockfalls that often turn into pyroclastic flows (hot block and ash avalanches, or nuées ardentes)....read more...

( earthquake- report. com-/ 20131231) El Hierro Volcano activity report – Crisis is over – Overall subsidence of the island

2013-12-31 08:52 UTC What we had expected last night was confirmed this morning by the new deformation data : a general subsidence (deflation) of the island (remark : a couple of signals – HI01 and HI10 – were not updated). Frontera had a 1 day deflation of 4 cm!. Yesterday we saw the last tremor disappear from various seismographs. Tremor is the indication that magma is moving somewhere below the island. The 2 new earthquakes have no special meaning as they will be probably generated by deformation stress and not by magma stress or movement. This will certainly happen more the next few days. How long will it take to the next crisis ? Nobody knows as it can happen tomorrow or next year, but scientists are convinced that more activity periods will follow...read more...

( volcano-discovery( 20131231) Cleveland (Aleutian Islands, Alaska) volcano: small explosions detected

Small, brief explosions were detected at the volcano yesterday evening (21:29 UTC or 12:29 AKST) and this morning at 4:06 UTC (19:06 AKST local time), USGS reported. "No satellite images available after the time of the explosion, so uncertain if minor ash cloud generated, but unlikely. "Similar such explosions may continue without warning, and may produce minor ash clouds that are not expected to extend much beyond the volcano, but could produce local fallout on the flanks of the volcano. AVO has received no reports of activity from local observers." (AVO/USGS)

 

(BBC- 20131231) Rescue for Antarctic ice-bound ship under threat

A rescue mission for a ship trapped in ice in Antarctica is under threat as reports have emerged that one of the assisting vessels may itself be stuck. Fifty-two passengers and four crew members were due to be evacuated by helicopter from China's Xue Long ship as soon as conditions allowed. However, the Xue Long has barely moved in a day and may be stuck in the ice. The research vessel Akademik Shokalskiy has been trapped for nearly a week with 74 scientists, tourists and crew. The ship is stocked with food and is in no danger, the team on board says.The planned air evacuation required that the two icebreakers in the immediate area - the Xue Long and the Australian Aurora Australis - be positioned close to each other in open water, clear of the pack ice. However, the captain of the Xue Long has told the Shokalskiy that he is keeping his vessel in a "holding position". The Aurora Australis, is now understood to be planning to carve through the dense thick pack to assist the Xue Long. ...read more...

(BBC- 20140101) Heatwave kills seven in Argentina

A heatwave affecting Argentina has left at least seven people dead - most of them elderly - in the past week, officials say. The heat has been compounded by power cuts, which have prevented many people from using air conditioning. In Santiago del Estero and other northern provinces temperatures have soared to over 45C (113F). Meteorologists say it has been the worst heatwave in the region since records began in 1906. The victims of the extreme weather lived in Santiago del Estero, located 1,100km (680 miles) north of Buenos Airesi...read more...

             
         
               

 

 

           

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

 

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

 

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

 

FLARES >

C

 

 

SOLAR FLUX (SFU)

 

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

 

 

M

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

 

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

 

CME impact

X

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

/ CLASS/ CONF.*

 

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

IMPACT SIZE:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

faded (DEC 28)

11929

52° - 66° W

11° S

BXO

 

 

 

 

 

 
rotated out (DEC27)

11930

       

 

 

 

 

   
rotating out (DEC31)

11931

83° - 97° W

14° S

HAX/ HSX

DEC 25          
faded again

11932

39° - 53° W

04° N

 

           
faded( DEC 22)

11933

64° - 78° W

12° S

 

           
faded( DEC 29

11935

07° E - 07° W

05° S

AXX/ HRX

DEC- 27          
 

11936

23° - 37 ° W°

18° S

EAC

DEC- 28          
 

11937

05° E- 09° W

13° S

BXO

DEC- 31            
 

11938

24°- 10° E

13° S

HAX/ CAO

JAN 02          
faded ( DEC 30)

11939

69°- 83° W

07° S

BXO/ CRO

           

SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

09

 

 

         

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

               
                     

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region          

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**          
*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson          
                       

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

Coronal Holes (CH) are darker regions on the Sun`s surface, where likely denser elements accumulate. Initially it was believed, that the solar gas hull would have there lower density, thus they would represent "holes" in the corona. Some coronal holes make giant magnetic loops reaching until the Eart s orbit, along those then high speed solar wind are kind of pumped through the geomag field back to the solar surface ( RECURRENT SOLAR WIND STREAMS)
 
NUMBER POSITION*: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING MAG &remarks  
         

 

 

CH 598

CENTRAL GROWING DEC- 24 DEC 29- 30

 

 
                     
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

           
     

 

             
ABBREVIATIONS> NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT)          
RECURR.= RECURRENT T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL ext= extended UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH            
                     

Today`s USAF report on solar activity >>

                 
       
             

OBSERVED SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY

                 

SUNSPOTS >

DROPPING

X- RAY/ ERUPTIONS >

LOW- ACTIVE

           
FLUCTUATIONS IN SOLAR ACTIVITY

currently peaking ( yellow background):

 

             
SHORT PERIOD FLUCTUATION APPR. 1/2 YEAR FLUCTUATION 11 YEAR SUN SPOT CYCLE

60/ 120 YEAR CYCLE? (unknown)

           

OVERLAPSING CYCLES

 

MARCH 2013

 

           
LAST PEAKS ^^
                 
                       
   

 

 

                 
INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX
           
                       

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT : LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:      
PROTON FLUX HIGHER

RISING AFTER SEP EVENTS ON DECEMBER 26 28 and 31 2013

ELECTRON FLUX NORMAL

SHORTLY ELEVATED SEP EVENTS ON DEC 26 and 28- 2013

     
BEGIN/ END: 20131119

ongoing

 

BEGIN/ END:    

 

 

     

 

 

                     

TERRESTRIAL

                 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

                 

 

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment /

GOES satellites are at geostationary orbit and measure influences / impacts on the geomagnetic field  

QUIET

         

UNSETTLED

     

ACTIVE

     

MINOR STORM

     

MAJOR STORM

     

 

     

CME IMPACT

             
       
       
                       
Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>                    
       
                       

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES      

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT (2)

PAST 24 h

ALERTS AS ISSUED BY NOAA

     
R3

X RAY > M 5 (FLARE ACTIVITY)

2158

NONE
peaks in solar x ray emissions generally generally flare activities )
 

CME event

TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION NONE NONE
TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS are typical indicators for Coronal Mass Ejections ( CME)
 
 

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

NONE
10 cm RADIO BURSTS are typical indicators for STRONGER ERUPTIONS Coronal Mass ejections ( CME)
 
G 2

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

an index how far the geomagnetic electron flux is disturbed mainly by solar influences such as HSS
 
                     
GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -05 nT/ 0807Z (USAF) NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 06 nT/ 1415Z (USAF) The Bz component is the value, the geomagnetic fiels density fluctuates /shifts in North/ South direction such as during CME impacts  
EFFECTIVE PROTONS NO DATA

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

           
new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report and report that represents the highest N/ S amplitude of that day          
                       
             
   

TODAY`S SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE IMPACTS

           
             
INTEGRAL PARTICLE FLUX:          

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

TODAY:(2)

20131231: PROTON FLUX DECREASED ALMOST BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS:  

> 10 MeV PROTONS(4)

> 0.5 pfu < 2.8 pfu

> 2 pfu < 20 pfu

>0.1 > 0.5 pfu.    
  CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):    

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

TODAY:(2)

   

>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS (1)

>450< 1.800 pfu (-)

>200< 1.800 pfu (-)

Proton infl.    

>2.0 MeV ELECTRONS(1)

+/- 10 pfu.

3- 70 pfu (-)

Proton infl.    
NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA

NO CURRENT DATA

UNKNOWN      
(2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values      
(4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu      

 

 

               

ACTIVE SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS (SEP)

STATUS: ACTIVE SEP          

LATEST GEOEFFECTIVE SEP:

2013 suggested TIME OF SOLAR SEP EVENT: DECEMBER 28- 2013 at 18:10 UTC      
SEP EVENT/ short event description>      

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:
 

INTEGRAL 10 MeV PROTON FLUX:

l AR / flare at 18:10 UTC 201312128/ 18:10 UTC DECREASING 30 pfu.

62.000 km/ sec

   
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  

INTEGRAL> 0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)

 

     

non yet

 

INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)

 

      none yet  
SEP EVENT/ short event description>      

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:
 

INTEGRAL 10 MeV PROTON FLUX:

unknown 201312126 08 UTC ongoing rising

unknown

   
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  

INTEGRAL> 0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)

 

     

non yet

 

INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)

 

      none yet  
SEP EVENT/ short event description> An X 1.0 LDE flare in AR 11893 peaking on NOV 19 at 10:42 UTC was associated to a major SEP    

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:
 

INTEGRAL 10 MeV PROTON FLUX:

unknown 20131214/ 08 UTC 20131215/ 18 UTC 1.5 pfu.

unknown

ONLY SHORT EVENT  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  

INTEGRAL> 0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)

 

     

non yet

 

INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)

 

      none yet  
PREVIOUS SEP EVENT/ short event description> An X 1.0 LDE flare in AR 11893 peaking on NOV 19 at 10:42 UTC was associated to a major SEP    

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:
 

INTEGRAL 10 MeV PROTON FLUX:

20131119/ 10: 42 UTC 20131119/ 12:00 UTC 20131121/ 00:0= UTC 4 pfu.

27.700 km/second

ONLY SHORT EVENT  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  

INTEGRAL> 0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)

 

     

none yet/ overlapsed by proton events

 

INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)

 

      none yet/ overlapsed by proton events  

 

       
ABBREVIATIONS/ CLASS >
       

SOLAR STORMS (SAPor SEP ) ARE INTENSIVE EMISSIONS OF HIGH ACCELERATED SOLAR PARTICLES ( PROTON/ ELECTRONS)

       

* SAP OR:" SEP" = SOLAR ACCELERATED (OR: ENERGETIC) PARTICLES (PR., EL.)

         

 

 

     
(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS
SOURCES:
 
               

CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL EVENTS

LAST UPDATE

20131231  

M 1 flare at 12:00 UTC/ M 5 at 21: 45 UTCon DEC 31:

 
                 
 
CH High Speed Solar wind Stream (HSS from decaying CH 594) X RAY > M 5 G2 GEOMAGNETIC STORM

EXPECTED CME IMPACT

APPROACHING CMEs :

SEP EVENT

 
        estimated arrival (s)n > 20131209/ 10  

SEP EVENTS>

ACTIVE SEP

> 10 MeV PROTONS >.1 pfu. < 0.5 pfu. > 2 MeV ELECTRONS  

ELECTRONS ARE ACTIVE ABOVE NORTHERN POL

 
ACUMMULATION OF SUCCEEDING SEPs! 20131228/ 19 UTC

20131230/ 18:00 UTC

20131231/ integral electron flux is very dense but slown down by recent SEP/ proton impact  
 

^begin

^end

           
LATEST SIGNIFICANT SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL EVENTS  
     
   
 

LATEST SOLAR EVENT- DECEMBER 24- 25 2013

AR 11936 on 20131228/ 18:10 UTC    
update/ December 28: Another. this time STRONGER SEP- the third within three weeks occured today on DECEMBER 28 .A possibly related solar event was observed at 18: 10 on SDO produced by AR 11936 (position: S17E19) The event was fully halo on SoHo. First protons arrive shortly before 19 UTC, Suggested , the solar event occured at 18:10 UTC. protons needed around 40 minutes to the Earth, what would result as a speed of around 62.000 km/ second. The fastest SEP in 2013 happened in May with protons at acclerated near to the speed of light. Protons flux rapidly increased after 19 UTC and is likely to exceed 10 pfu today. The effects of this SEP are not really measurable since more or less one SEP follows the other and the interactivity between Protons and later atrrackted electrons neutzralize each other only on the instruments In reality following SEPs sum up and accumulated ( so my estimation) an critical amount of heat within the earth mantle. . Several hopt spots steady intensified with activity. Magmatic tremors oin the Canaries have reacjhed a magnitude above 5.4 on December 27. and heat within the earth mantle will even grow higher with this SEP and might give the canary hotspot the last push to erupt soon. If the sun does not make a rest with its SEPs, global catastrophies from volcano eruptions to storms , floodings, weather anomalies and earthquakes in its final state very likely might reach global scale in January 2014..e fastest SEP
 

 

update/ December 26: A new SEP was observed on December 26 with first protons impacting after 09 UTC The source of the event is unclear. There were numerous minor solar flares in the morning. The source of the SEP might have been an C class LDE in Region 11936.6. Proton rose above 1 pfu during December 26 . The event is ongoing

update/ December 25: Electron flux rapidly began to drop on December 25 after 00 UTC: This might be an indicator for an upcoming stronger Earth or Seaquake event in the regions as mentioned in my experminental Earthquake forecast below. Alert level was therefor raised after 17 UTC to red with a possibility of Earthquakes with magnitudes higher than M 7.5. (8.0?) in the coming two days

 

 

               

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

ORANGE BACKGROUND= " LATENCY" = LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE LATENT/ EXPECTABLE , BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER UNLIKELY- WATCH!  
             

ALERT LEVEL

         
DIMINUISHING PROTON IMPACT ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES TODAY

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

REMARKS AND/ OR PROBABILITY  

31. DECEMBER 2013

 

M 5.5 - 6.5 ( magmatic)

1-2 DECREASING  

01 JANUARY 2014

 

M 5.5 - 6.0 ( magmatic)

1-2 DECREASING  

03 JANUARY 2014

 

M 5.5 - 6.0 (only magmatic quakes exp.)

1-2 EXPECTED LATENCY ( ELECTRONS)  

ABOUT LATENCIES:

   

INFLUENCES:

HIGHTENED ACTIVE ELECTRONS (+) PROTON IMPACT (SEP)- DECREASING  

EFFECTING AS >

INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS(/EARTHQUAKES: HIGHER  

NOTES:* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

(In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 
                 
20131231/ integral electron flux is very dense but slown down by recent SEP proton impact
 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

background influence:

SEP( DEC 14)

EFFECTIVE CMEs/ int. Nrs. >

CME CLUSTER: 42/13 a-d/ 43- 45/ 13
 

ALERT LEVEL

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS: LATEST CME IMPACT REGIONS/ =EXPECTABLE EVENT REGIONS  

DIMINUISHING PROTON IMPACT

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES (INCREASING ) PRIMARY REGIONS IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

BACKGROUND EVENTS:

 
 

INDUCED CURRENTS (+)

NORTH AMERICA/ WEST LONGITUDES: 30° - 150° W/ 150°- 180° W ACCUMULATING SEP EVENTS!  

RADIO BLACKOUTS (PROTON INFLUENCE) HIGH!

SOUTH AMERICA

PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< NASCA

IMPACT HEMISPHERE:

 
SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS/ TORNADOES (+) CENTRAL AMERICA

ATLANTIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< CARRIBEAN >< COCOS

CENTRAL > SOUTH

 
WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) W- EUROPE/ E ATLANTIC

N- AMERICA ><EURASIA ><AFRICA

 

 
RAPIDE MELTDOWNS OF GLACIERS OR PERMAICE EASTERN PACIFIC N- AMERICA >< INDO/ AUS ><PAC SEVERAL RECENT SAP EVENTS AND CMES HAVE ACCUMULATED A HIGH POTENTIAL OF (HEAT-) ENERGY WITHIN THE EARTH BODY!  

SEP EFFECTS:

PROTONS: GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (+)

 

SECONDARY REGIONS :

 
HOT SPOTS > VOLCANIC HOT SPOT ACTIVITIES/ MAGMATIC TREMORS (-) EURASIA/ EAST LONGITUDES : 90°- 15 ° E  
PROTONS > PROTON IMPACT > SOUTHERN POLE (- ) EAST AFRICA/ INDIA

N- AMERICA ><EURASIA ><AFRICA

 
EARTHQUAKES > LOW/ ELECTRONS HEATING TECTONIC PLATES (+)

JAPAN- INDONESIA

LONGITUDES : 180 ° - 90° E *REGIONS> see definition below  
ELECTRONS > TEMPERATURE ANOMALITIES NEAR NORTHERN POLE

VOLCANO/ HOT SPOT ACTIVITY >

LOW  
CLIMATE WEATHER >
ATMOSPHERIC HEATING EFFECTS/ ANOMALIES NEAR NORTHERN POLE/ STORMS ETC. ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY >>> HIGHER ( PROTON IMPACT))  
NOTES TO SEP EVENTS::               read also: NASA SCIENCE/ 2005:NASA - A New Kind of Solar Storm  
USUALLY, SEPS begin with an outburst of highly accelerated PROTONS from the Sun. First protons arrive from 15 minutes until, several hours after the event where they move along the geomagnetic field lines towards the Earth`s Southern geomag pole, causing ( depending on the intensity) temporary heat effects on the polar surface, atmosphere and "Earth axis" likely even deep within the Earth core, what ( statistically- see previous blogs to SEP) mostly leads almost synchronously to increased activities on so called hot spot volcanoes , already minutes , resp < 1 hour after the first protons began to impact. Protons storms can last days and accumulate with following SEPs. The integral electron flux will begin to rise/ become effective when proton impact decreases,and the temporary positive component they add to the geomag field begins to attrack electrons from the solar EM field. Electron accumulation can last for weeks (but following NEW SEPS will neutralise, resp just "surpress" electron effectivity) . Electron accumulation can have many effects: typical are: INTENSIVE thunderstorms and tornadoes , but also volcanic eruptions, higher temperatures and rel. droughts in the higher latitudes up to the (mainly NORTH) polar regions what weakens the sea currents , by a lower temperature difference. Heat between equatorals and polar regions then is exchanged more over the ATMOSPHERE and that brings heavy rain to the middle latitudes. Accumulated electrons also can cause induced currents even down to the ground, such as in power grids, but also pipelines and ( ship fires coincident with SEP impacts suggest, that CMEs also especially might induce currents through the salty ocean into SHIPS!!.) The effects of SEPs HOWEVER DIRECTLY depend on the intensity of the SEPs initial proton flux and its duration, and could be forecasted very well .Nevertheless -following SEPs can accumulate higher energies in terms of heating up the Earth core and mantle , that can`t be measured nor predicted but just estimated. In NOAA space weather predictions. mainly provided for satellite and airflight protection , integral > 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be real effective from a value of 10 pfu. upwards (= S1 solar storm) . In geophysical terms protons are effective at each level. . SEPS are the only known type of POTENTIAL DANGEROUS solar events (depending on their intensity) . They simply - as NASA expressed it : "CAN DO EVERYTHING"  
                       

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

DECEMBER

 

DAY:

30

 

     
                       

ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

   

TODAY`s EVENTS

 
                       
GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC      
EPICENTER/ MAP    
highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>    

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.1 - BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES - 2013-12-30 20:17:59 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE > 19.15 N ; 120.30 E DEPTH > 10 km    

 

             

RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

NONE ( DEFAULT) for current status, check out >
 
   
EARTHQUAKE REGIONS/ FROM 180° E ON WESTWARDS

TECTONICS:

FREQUENCY/ SINCE

REGION*

EPICENTER:

NUMBER

EVENT ( link to ESMC)  
REGION INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES/ INDIA EUR.>< / INDO- AUS. FREQUENT

"A"

EPICENTER 2x > M 5 M 5.0 - BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES - 2013-12-30 20:31:03 UTC  
        EPICENTER 01 M 5.0 - MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA - 2013-12-30 18:20:04 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report  
 

 

 

                   
NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES
 
This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >
         

 

 

                     
TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS
             
                 
               
               
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
                   
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
INDIAN OCEAN:
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
Tropical Cyclone Bejisa DEC- 29- 2013 SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN 45 MPH () 52.7° E 10.4° N
300 KM NORTHEAST OF MADAGASKAR
SE
TC
 
Tropical Cyclone Christine DEC 28- 2013 SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN 80 MPH () 118.6° E 18.8° N
100 KM OFFSHORE NW-AUSTTRALIA
SSW
TC
 
                     
NOAA/ Hurricane Center NASA/ GOES NOAA usno.navy.mil METEOALARM METEOSAT

reports taken from:

 

 

 

               

HEADLINES

2013

 

 

         
 

 

 

 
             
         
               

 

 

           

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

 

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

   

SUNSPOT NUMBER

93

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

288-359

FLARES >

C

08

 

SOLAR FLUX (SFU)

142.9

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 6.9

 

M

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

02

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

62- 120 nT

CME impact

X

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

/ CLASS/ CONF.*

 

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

IMPACT SIZE:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

faded (DEC 28)

11929

52° - 66° W

11° S

BXO

 

 

 

 

 

   
rotated out (DEC27)

11930

       

 

 

 

 

   
 

11931

70° - 84° W

14° S

HSX/ HHX

DEC 25          
reeemerged (DEC22)

11932

39° - 53° W

04° N

 

           
faded( DEC 22)

11933

64° - 78° W

12° S

 

           
 

11935

07° E - 07° W

05° S

AXX/ HRX

DEC- 27          
 

11936

09° - 23 ° W°

18° S

EAC

DEC- 28          
 

11937

18°- 04° E

13° S

BXO

DEC- 31            
 

11938

37°- 24° E

13° S

CAO

JAN 02          
NEWLY EMERGED>

11939

69°- 83° W

07° S

BXO/ CRO

           

SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

09

 

 

         

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

               
                     

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region          

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**          
*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson          
                       

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

Coronal Holes (CH) are darker regions on the Sun`s surface, where likely denser elements accumulate. Initially it was believed, that the solar gas hull would have there lower density, thus they would represent "holes" in the corona. Some coronal holes make giant magnetic loops reaching until the Eart s orbit, along those then high speed solar wind are kind of pumped through the geomag field back to the solar surface ( RECURRENT SOLAR WIND STREAMS)
 
NUMBER POSITION*: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING MAG &remarks  
         

 

 

CH 598

CENTRAL GROWING DEC- 24 DEC 29- 30

 

 
                     
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

           
     

 

             
ABBREVIATIONS> NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT)          
RECURR.= RECURRENT T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL ext= extended UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH            
                     

Today`s USAF report on solar activity >>

                 
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 29/2233Z from Region 1936 (S16W22). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 Dec, 01 Jan, 02 Jan).      
             

OBSERVED SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY

                 

SUNSPOTS >

DROPPING

X- RAY/ ERUPTIONS >

LOW- ACTIVE

           
FLUCTUATIONS IN SOLAR ACTIVITY

currently peaking ( yellow background):

 

             
SHORT PERIOD FLUCTUATION APPR. 1/2 YEAR FLUCTUATION 11 YEAR SUN SPOT CYCLE

60/ 120 YEAR CYCLE? (unknown)

           

OVERLAPSING CYCLES

 

MARCH 2013

 

           
LAST PEAKS ^^
                 
                       
                       
SOLAR CME EVENT :
               

20131229

CMEs at:

 

ARRIVAL:

 

POLARITY: ALPHA BETA UNKNOWN  

Abbreviations:

 
TRACKING NR.:

47/13

20131229/ 11:24 UTC 20131231/ 12:03 UTC 20131229/ 11:42 UTC 20131231/ 05:40 UTC 20131229/ 08:10 UTC    
ACTIVE REGION:

11936

 
 
Earth directed?

 

   

SUN COORDINATES:

   

 

 

   

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

   
LDE FLARE M 2.8    
SATELLITE/ LINKS > STEREO "Ahead" COR2 STEREO "Ahead" COR2 SoHO/ LASCO C 3 SDO/ AIA- comp.

SDO/ AIA- comp.

   
TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << NOAA SPACE WEATHER ALERTS NOAA/ X RAY EVENTS: INTERNAL REPORT FOLLOWING SEP EVENT

 

   
TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION

     
10 cm RADIO BURST      

major flare activity followed the SEP event on December 28: . Komplex AR 11936 was less active after the SEP , but aneighbored AR 11968 produced a minor CME on December 29 at 4: 39 UTC. On December 31 at 5:40 occured another event that emmited protons on ACE ( an might still cause the proton flux above 0.1 pfu.) . The event however brought SDO shortly out of order. STEREO shows a flare that peaked with M1 around 12 UTC. . The event occured North of AR 11938- rather at the edge of CoronalHhole 598. Both events produced minor CMEs those have likely Earth directed parts . Further analysis will follow at arrival. Soho had no images yet of this event. The Proton storm following the SEP on Dec 28 decreased during DEC 30, was almost back to normal levels at 24 UTC and is now between 0.1 and 0.5 pfu ( normal level= +/- 0.1 pfu.)

     
       
     
   

 

 

                 
INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX
           
                       

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT : LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:      
PROTON FLUX HIGHER

RISING AFTER SEP EVENTS ON DECEMBER 26 28 and 31 2013

ELECTRON FLUX NORMAL

SHORTLY ELEVATED SEP EVENTS ON DEC 26 and 28- 2013

     
BEGIN/ END: 20131119

ongoing

 

BEGIN/ END:    

 

 

     

 

 

                     

TERRESTRIAL

                 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

                 

 

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment /

GOES satellites are at geostationary orbit and measure influences / impacts on the geomagnetic field  

QUIET

         

UNSETTLED

     

ACTIVE

     

MINOR STORM

     

MAJOR STORM

     

 

     

CME IMPACT

             
       
       
                       
Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>                    
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 407 km/s at 30/1312Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 30/1415Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 30/0807Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 29/2200Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (31 Dec), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (01 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Jan). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (31 Dec) and day two (01 Jan).      
                       

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES      

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT (2)

PAST 24 h

ALERTS AS ISSUED BY NOAA

     
R3

X RAY > M 5 (FLARE ACTIVITY)

NONE

NONE
peaks in solar x ray emissions generally generally flare activities )
 

CME event

TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION NONE NONE
TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS are typical indicators for Coronal Mass Ejections ( CME)
 
 

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

NONE
10 cm RADIO BURSTS are typical indicators for STRONGER ERUPTIONS Coronal Mass ejections ( CME)
 
G 2

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

an index how far the geomagnetic electron flux is disturbed mainly by solar influences such as HSS
 
                     
GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -05 nT/ 1620Z (USAF) NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 08 nT/ 1620Z(USAF) The Bz component is the value, the geomagnetic fiels density fluctuates /shifts in North/ South direction such as during CME impacts  
EFFECTIVE PROTONS NO DATA

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

           
new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report and report that represents the highest N/ S amplitude of that day          
                       
             
   

TODAY`S SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE IMPACTS

           
NOAA ELECTRONS> <NOAA PROTONS      
           
INTEGRAL PARTICLE FLUX:        

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

TODAY:(2)

     

> 10 MeV PROTONS(4)

> 2 pfu < 20 pfu

> 0.1 pfu < 30 pfu

> 2.8 pfu.      
  CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):      

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS:

       

>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS (1)

>200< 1.800 pfu (-)

> 200 < 2.500 pfu (-)

Proton infl.        

>2.0 MeV ELECTRONS(1)

3- 70 pfu (-)

0- 60 pfu (-)

Proton infl.      
NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA

NO CURRENT DATA

UNKNOWN      
(2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values      
(4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu      

 

 

               

ACTIVE SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS (SEP)

STATUS: ACTIVE SEP          

LATEST GEOEFFECTIVE SEP:

2013 suggested TIME OF SOLAR SEP EVENT: DECEMBER 28- 2013 at 18:10 UTC      
SEP EVENT/ short event description>      

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:
 

INTEGRAL 10 MeV PROTON FLUX:

l AR / flare at 18:10 UTC 201312128/ 18:10 UTC DECREASING 30 pfu.

62.000 km/ sec

   
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  

INTEGRAL> 0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)

 

     

non yet

 

INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)

 

      none yet  
SEP EVENT/ short event description>      

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:
 

INTEGRAL 10 MeV PROTON FLUX:

unknown 201312126 08 UTC ongoing rising

unknown

   
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  

INTEGRAL> 0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)

 

     

non yet

 

INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)

 

      none yet  
SEP EVENT/ short event description> An X 1.0 LDE flare in AR 11893 peaking on NOV 19 at 10:42 UTC was associated to a major SEP    

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:
 

INTEGRAL 10 MeV PROTON FLUX:

unknown 20131214/ 08 UTC 20131215/ 18 UTC 1.5 pfu.

unknown

ONLY SHORT EVENT  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  

INTEGRAL> 0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)

 

     

non yet

 

INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)

 

      none yet  
PREVIOUS SEP EVENT/ short event description> An X 1.0 LDE flare in AR 11893 peaking on NOV 19 at 10:42 UTC was associated to a major SEP    

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:
 

INTEGRAL 10 MeV PROTON FLUX:

20131119/ 10: 42 UTC 20131119/ 12:00 UTC 20131121/ 00:0= UTC 4 pfu.

27.700 km/second

ONLY SHORT EVENT  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  

INTEGRAL> 0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)

 

     

none yet/ overlapsed by proton events

 

INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)

 

      none yet/ overlapsed by proton events  

 

       
ABBREVIATIONS/ CLASS >
       

SOLAR STORMS (SAPor SEP ) ARE INTENSIVE EMISSIONS OF HIGH ACCELERATED SOLAR PARTICLES ( PROTON/ ELECTRONS)

       

* SAP OR:" SEP" = SOLAR ACCELERATED (OR: ENERGETIC) PARTICLES (PR., EL.)

         

 

 

     
(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS
SOURCES:
 
               

CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL EVENTS

LAST UPDATE

20131230  
 
                 
 
CH High Speed Solar wind Stream (HSS from decaying CH 594) X RAY > M 5 G2 GEOMAGNETIC STORM

EXPECTED CME IMPACT

APPROACHING CMEs :

SEP EVENT

 
        estimated arrival (s)n > 20131209/ 10  

SEP EVENTS>

ACTIVE SEP

> 10 MeV PROTONS > 10 pfu > 2 MeV ELECTRONS  

ELECTRONS ARE ACTIVE ABOVE NORTHERN POL

 
ACUMMULATION OF SUCCEEDING SEPs! 20131228/ 19 UTC decreasing ELECTRON ACCUMULATION: ELECTRON FLUX IS DENSE , BUT UNDER GRAVITY INFLUENCE BY ONGOING PROTON IMPACTS  
                 
LATEST SIGNIFICANT SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL EVENTS  
     
   
 

LATEST SOLAR EVENT- DECEMBER 24- 25 2013

AR 11936 on 20131228/ 18:10 UTC    
update/ December 28: Another. this time STRONGER SEP- the third within three weeks occured today on DECEMBER 28 .A possibly related solar event was observed at 18: 10 on SDO produced by AR 11936 (position: S17E19) The event was fully halo on SoHo. First protons arrive shortly before 19 UTC, Suggested , the solar event occured at 18:10 UTC. protons needed around 40 minutes to the Earth, what would result as a speed of around 62.000 km/ second. The fastest SEP in 2013 happened in May with protons at acclerated near to the speed of light. Protons flux rapidly increased after 19 UTC and is likely to exceed 10 pfu today. The effects of this SEP are not really measurable since more or less one SEP follows the other and the interactivity between Protons and later atrrackted electrons neutzralize each other only on the instruments In reality following SEPs sum up and accumulated ( so my estimation) an critical amount of heat within the earth mantle. . Several hopt spots steady intensified with activity. Magmatic tremors oin the Canaries have reacjhed a magnitude above 5.4 on December 27. and heat within the earth mantle will even grow higher with this SEP and might give the canary hotspot the last push to erupt soon. If the sun does not make a rest with its SEPs, global catastrophies from volcano eruptions to storms , floodings, weather anomalies and earthquakes in its final state very likely might reach global scale in January 2014..e fastest SEP
 

 

update/ December 26: A new SEP was observed on December 26 with first protons impacting after 09 UTC The source of the event is unclear. There were numerous minor solar flares in the morning. The source of the SEP might have been an C class LDE in Region 11936.6. Proton rose above 1 pfu during December 26 . The event is ongoing

update/ December 25: Electron flux rapidly began to drop on December 25 after 00 UTC: This might be an indicator for an upcoming stronger Earth or Seaquake event in the regions as mentioned in my experminental Earthquake forecast below. Alert level was therefor raised after 17 UTC to red with a possibility of Earthquakes with magnitudes higher than M 7.5. (8.0?) in the coming two days

 

 

               

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

ORANGE BACKGROUND= " LATENCY" = LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE LATENT/ EXPECTABLE , BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER UNLIKELY- WATCH!  
             

ALERT LEVEL

         
CONTINUING PROTON STORM. ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES TODAY

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

REMARKS AND/ OR PROBABILITY  

30. DECEMBER 2013
 

M 5.5 - 7.0 ( likely magmatic)

1- 3 POSSIBLE (PROTON IMPACT)  
31. DECEMBER 2013  

M 5.5 - 6.5 ( likely magmatic)

1-2 POSSIBLE (PROTON IMPACT)  
01 JANUARY 2014  

M 5.5 -6.5 ( likely magmatic)

2- 3 POSSIBLE (PROTON IMPACT)  

ABOUT LATENCIES:

   

INFLUENCES:

HIGHTENED ACTIVE ELECTRONS (+) PROTON IMPACT (SEP)- DECREASING  

EFFECTING AS >

INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS(/EARTHQUAKES: HIGHER  

NOTES:* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

(In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 
                 
20131230/ integral electron flux under pressure of the new proton storm
 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

background influence:

SEP( DEC 14)

EFFECTIVE CMEs/ int. Nrs. >

CME CLUSTER: 42/13 a-d/ 43- 45/ 13
 

ALERT LEVEL

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS: LATEST CME IMPACT REGIONS/ =EXPECTABLE EVENT REGIONS  

PROTON IMPACT

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES (INCREASING ) PRIMARY REGIONS IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

BACKGROUND EVENTS:

 
 

INDUCED CURRENTS (+)

NORTH AMERICA/ WEST LONGITUDES: 30° - 150° W/ 150°- 180° W ACCUMULATING SEP EVENTS!  

RADIO BLACKOUTS (PROTON INFLUENCE) HIGH!

SOUTH AMERICA

PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< NASCA

IMPACT HEMISPHERE:

 
SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS/ TORNADOES (+) CENTRAL AMERICA

ATLANTIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< CARRIBEAN >< COCOS

CENTRAL > SOUTH

 
WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) W- EUROPE/ E ATLANTIC

N- AMERICA ><EURASIA ><AFRICA

 

 
RAPIDE MELTDOWNS OF GLACIERS OR PERMAICE EASTERN PACIFIC N- AMERICA >< INDO/ AUS ><PAC SEVERAL RECENT SAP EVENTS AND CMES HAVE ACCUMULATED A HIGH POTENTIAL OF (HEAT-) ENERGY WITHIN THE EARTH BODY!  

SEP EFFECTS:

PROTONS: GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (+)

 

SECONDARY REGIONS :

 
HOT SPOTS > VOLCANIC HOT SPOT ACTIVITIES/ MAGMATIC TREMORS (+) EURASIA/ EAST LONGITUDES : 90°- 15 ° E  
PROTONS > PROTON IMPACT > SOUTHERN POLE (- ) EAST AFRICA/ INDIA

N- AMERICA ><EURASIA ><AFRICA

 
EARTHQUAKES > LOW/ ELECTRONS HEATING TECTONIC PLATES (+)

JAPAN- INDONESIA

LONGITUDES : 180 ° - 90° E *REGIONS> see definition below  
ELECTRONS > TEMPERATURE ANOMALITIES NEAR NORTHERN POLE

VOLCANO/ HOT SPOT ACTIVITY >

LOW  
CLIMATE WEATHER >
ATMOSPHERIC HEATING EFFECTS/ ANOMALIES NEAR NORTHERN POLE/ STORMS ETC. ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY >>> HIGHER ( PROTON IMPACT))  
NOTES TO SEP EVENTS::               read also: NASA SCIENCE/ 2005:NASA - A New Kind of Solar Storm  
USUALLY, SEPS begin with an outburst of highly accelerated PROTONS from the Sun. First protons arrive from 15 minutes until, several hours after the event where they move along the geomagnetic field lines towards the Earth`s Southern geomag pole, causing ( depending on the intensity) temporary heat effects on the polar surface, atmosphere and "Earth axis" likely even deep within the Earth core, what ( statistically- see previous blogs to SEP) mostly leads almost synchronously to increased activities on so called hot spot volcanoes , already minutes , resp < 1 hour after the first protons began to impact. Protons storms can last days and accumulate with following SEPs. The integral electron flux will begin to rise/ become effective when proton impact decreases,and the temporary positive component they add to the geomag field begins to attrack electrons from the solar EM field. Electron accumulation can last for weeks (but following NEW SEPS will neutralise, resp just "surpress" electron effectivity) . Electron accumulation can have many effects: typical are: INTENSIVE thunderstorms and tornadoes , but also volcanic eruptions, higher temperatures and rel. droughts in the higher latitudes up to the (mainly NORTH) polar regions what weakens the sea currents , by a lower temperature difference. Heat between equatorals and polar regions then is exchanged more over the ATMOSPHERE and that brings heavy rain to the middle latitudes. Accumulated electrons also can cause induced currents even down to the ground, such as in power grids, but also pipelines and ( ship fires coincident with SEP impacts suggest, that CMEs also especially might induce currents through the salty ocean into SHIPS!!.) The effects of SEPs HOWEVER DIRECTLY depend on the intensity of the SEPs initial proton flux and its duration, and could be forecasted very well .Nevertheless -following SEPs can accumulate higher energies in terms of heating up the Earth core and mantle , that can`t be measured nor predicted but just estimated. In NOAA space weather predictions. mainly provided for satellite and airflight protection , integral > 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be real effective from a value of 10 pfu. upwards (= S1 solar storm) . In geophysical terms protons are effective at each level. . SEPS are the only known type of POTENTIAL DANGEROUS solar events (depending on their intensity) . They simply - as NASA expressed it : "CAN DO EVERYTHING"  

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

DECEMBER

 

DAY:

29

 

     
                       

ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

   

TODAY`s EVENTS

 
                       
GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC      
EPICENTER/ MAP    
highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>    

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.0 - SOUTHERN ITALY - 2013-12-29 17:08:44 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE > 41.43 N ; 14.43 E DEPTH > 10 km    

 

             

RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

NONE ( DEFAULT) for current status, check out >
 
   
EARTHQUAKE REGIONS/ FROM 180° E ON WESTWARDS

TECTONICS:

FREQUENCY/ SINCE

REGION*

EPICENTER:

NUMBER

EVENT ( link to ESMC)  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ MARIANA ISLANDS REGION       EPICENTER 01 M 5.0 - MARIANA ISLANDS REGION - 2013-12-29 00:47:50 UTC  
EASTERN PACIFIC/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC. PAC. >< INDO- AUS FREQUENT

"B"

EPICENTER 01 M 5.5 - NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G. - 2013-12-29 12:49:18 UTC  
REGION INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES/ INDIA EUR.>< / INDO- AUS. FREQUENT

"A"

EPICENTER 01 M 5.1 - PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION - 2013-12-29 17:49:52 UTC  
        EPICENTER 01 M 5.7 - MOLUCCA SEA - 2013-12-29 15:37:39 UTC  
        EPICENTER 01 M 5.0 - MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA - 2013-12-29 14:29:53 UTC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARMS SOUTHERN ITALY AFRICA >< EURASIA FREQUENT

"E"

EPICENTER 30 X > M 2 M 3.5 - SOUTHERN ITALY - 2013-12-29 22:03:27 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report  
 

 

 

                   
NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES
 
This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >
         

 

 

                     
TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS
             
                 
               
               
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
                   
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
INDIAN OCEAN:
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
Tropical Cyclone Christine DEC 28- 2013 SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN 65 MPH () 120.2° E 16.6° N
100 KM OFFSHORE NW OF BROOME/ NW-AUSTTRALIA
SSW
TC
 
                     
NOAA/ Hurricane Center NASA/ GOES NOAA usno.navy.mil METEOALARM METEOSAT

reports taken from:

 

 

 

               

HEADLINES

2013

 

 

         

EL HIERRO / CANARY ISLANDS- 20131229: EARTHQUAKE TREMORS HAVE STOPPED BUT A NEW ISLANDS LIFTING UP STARTED INSTEAD ON DEC 29:

(report by earthquake. com,/ 20131229)

2013-12-30 08:03 UTC NO more earthquakes, very calm graphs but again spectacular deformation charts. Deformations are giving a totally changed pattern this morning. The Southern areas are subsiding. The eastern central area is stabilizing BUT the western central and northern areas are inflating (western area very strong). HI10 (El Julan) has no data for the second day in a row. The changing deformation pattern shows the biggest magma movement below the island concentrating in the El Golfo area (Sabinosa to Frontera) and is an additional sign that the crisis isn’t over yet. The strongest deformation today is noted in Sabinosa (GPS station HI03) where the ground was lifted 3 cm in less than 24 hours. The station HI04 (slightly west of HI03 (see map) has however stabilized data. This crisis will only end when the deformations are stabilizing everywhere.

2013-12-29 16:54 UTC No more earthquakes since our morning update and no abnormal tremor on the seismograph(s). No new GPS reading so far of the Uni of Nagoya/Involcan deformation measurement at El Pinar. The Modis Terra satellite image was clear today and showed no abnormalities. 2013-12-29 09:28 UTC An earthquake free night at El Hierro. No increased tremor after an initial increase yesterday evening. New IGN GPS deformation data are in, and are showing a first notable increase in the North of the island of about 1 cm (HI01, HI00 and FRON), areas which had almost no lifting so far. The South-eastern part (La Restinga and El Pinar HI08 and HI09) are showing slight increases (Please note that HI10 or El Julan did not get new data today). The only part of the island where a small subsidence has been noted is the HI03 (Sabinosa) and HI04 (Lighthouse) or generally speaking the western edge of the island. Horizontal deformations : strongest change is a 1 cm North-East push at HI01. Locations of the GPS stations : see location map below. With a new increase in the north, the magma below the island hasn’t decided yet to go away...find more..

^measured lifting up rates on El Hierro ( Dec 29/ 30- 2013) parts of the islands were lifted upwards for 19 mm within two days since the new volcanic crisis began. If the activity should not fade again as in March 2013 and pressure would rise, there is a chance for a biggger outburst anywhere (usually new craters envolve on the edges of the former shield volcano) , especially when water meats with magma inside the volcanic system (esp. for German users) empfohlene Website "El Hierro blogspot "von M. Betzwieser mit sehr kompetenten BERICHTEN UND UPDATES ÜBER EL HIERRO friends of AVCAN have published a picture who shows the kind of rocks who came down from the slopes after the shaking of the Magnitude 5.1 earthquake
         
               

 

 

           

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

 

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

   

SUNSPOT NUMBER

119

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

336-425

FLARES >

C

14

 

SOLAR FLUX (SFU)

137.0

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 6.3

 

M

01

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

05

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

60- 108 nT

CME impact

X

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

/ CLASS/ CONF.*

 

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

IMPACT SIZE:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

rotatedout ( DEC 25)

11928

       

 

 

 

 

   
faded (DEC 28)

11929

52° - 66° W

11° S

BXO

 

 

 

 

 

   
rotated out (DEC27)

11930

                 
 

11931

56° - 70° W

14° S

HSX/ CAO

DEC 25          
reeemerged (DEC22)

11932

39° - 53° W

04° N

 

           
faded( DEC 22)

11933

64° - 78° W

12° S

 

           
 

11935

07° E - 07° W

05° S

AXX/ HRX

DEC- 27          
 

11936

05° E- 09° W

18° S

EAC

DEC- 28            
 

11937

32°- 18° E

13° S

BXO

DEC- 31          
 

11938

51°- 37° E

13° S

HAX

JAN 02          

SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

07

 

 

         

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

               
                     

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region          

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**          
*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson          
                       

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

Coronal Holes (CH) are darker regions on the Sun`s surface, where likely denser elements accumulate. Initially it was believed, that the solar gas hull would have there lower density, thus they would represent "holes" in the corona. Some coronal holes make giant magnetic loops reaching until the Eart s orbit, along those then high speed solar wind are kind of pumped through the geomag field back to the solar surface ( RECURRENT SOLAR WIND STREAMS)
 
NUMBER POSITION*: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING MAG &remarks  
         

 

 

CH 598

CENTRAL GROWING DEC- 24 DEC 29- 30

 

 
                     
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

           
     

 

             
ABBREVIATIONS> NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT)          
RECURR.= RECURRENT T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL ext= extended UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH            
                     

Today`s USAF report on solar activity >>

                 
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 29/0756Z from Region 1936 (S17W08). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec, 01 Jan).      
             

OBSERVED SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY

                 

SUNSPOTS >

DROPPING

X- RAY/ ERUPTIONS >

LOW- ACTIVE

           
FLUCTUATIONS IN SOLAR ACTIVITY

currently peaking ( yellow background):

 

             
SHORT PERIOD FLUCTUATION APPR. 1/2 YEAR FLUCTUATION 11 YEAR SUN SPOT CYCLE

60/ 120 YEAR CYCLE? (unknown)

           

OVERLAPSING CYCLES

 

MARCH 2013

 

           
LAST PEAKS ^^
                 
     
   

 

 

                 
INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX
           
                       

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT : LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:      
PROTON FLUX HIGHER

RISING AFTER SEP EVENTS ON DECEMBER 26 and 28- 2013

ELECTRON FLUX NORMAL

SHORT PEAKS DURING SEP EVENTS ON DEC 26 and 28- 2013

     
BEGIN/ END: 20131119

ongoing

 

BEGIN/ END:    

 

 

     

 

 

                     

TERRESTRIAL

                 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

                 

 

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment /

GOES satellites are at geostationary orbit and measure influences / impacts on the geomagnetic field  

QUIET

         

UNSETTLED

     

ACTIVE

     

MINOR STORM

     

MAJOR STORM

     

 

     

CME IMPACT

             
       
       
                       
Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>                    
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 414 km/s at 28/2300Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 28/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 28/2102Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 29 pfu at 28/2315Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (30 Dec, 31 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (01 Jan). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec, 01 Jan).      
                       

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES      

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT (2)

PAST 24 h

ALERTS AS ISSUED BY NOAA

     
R3

X RAY > M 5 (FLARE ACTIVITY)

NONE

NONE
peaks in solar x ray emissions generally generally flare activities )
 

CME event

TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION NONE NONE
TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS are typical indicators for Coronal Mass Ejections ( CME)
 
 

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

NONE
10 cm RADIO BURSTS are typical indicators for STRONGER ERUPTIONS Coronal Mass ejections ( CME)
 
G 2

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

an index how far the geomagnetic electron flux is disturbed mainly by solar influences such as HSS
 
                     
GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -05 nT/ 1620Z (USAF) NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 08 nT/ 1620Z(USAF) The Bz component is the value, the geomagnetic fiels density fluctuates /shifts in North/ South direction such as during CME impacts  
EFFECTIVE PROTONS NO DATA

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

           
new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report and report that represents the highest N/ S amplitude of that day          
                       
             
   

TODAY`S SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE IMPACTS

           
NOAA ELECTRONS> <NOAA PROTONS      
           
INTEGRAL PARTICLE FLUX:        

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS: (2)

     

> 10 MeV PROTONS(4)

> 0.1 pfu < 30 pfu

> 0, 1 pfu < 2.5 pfu

> 2 pfu.      
  CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):      

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS:

       

>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS (1)

>9300< 2.500 pfu (-)

>90. < 1.500 pfu (-)

Proton infl.        

>2.0 MeV ELECTRONS(1)

0- 60 pfu (-)

1- 10 pfu (-)

Proton infl.      
NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA

NO CURRENT DATA

UNKNOWN      
(2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values      
(4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu      

 

 

               

ACTIVE SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS (SEP)

STATUS: ACTIVE SEP          

LATEST GEOEFFECTIVE SEP:

2013 suggested TIME OF SOLAR SEP EVENT: DECEMBER 28- 2013 at 18:10 UTC      
SEP EVENT/ short event description>      

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:
 

INTEGRAL 10 MeV PROTON FLUX:

l AR / flare at 18:10 UTC 201312128/ 18:10 UTC DECREASING 30 pfu.

62.000 km/ sec

   
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  

INTEGRAL> 0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)

 

     

non yet

 

INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)

 

      none yet  
SEP EVENT/ short event description>      

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:
 

INTEGRAL 10 MeV PROTON FLUX:

unknown 201312126 08 UTC ongoing rising

unknown

   
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  

INTEGRAL> 0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)

 

     

non yet

 

INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)

 

      none yet  
SEP EVENT/ short event description> An X 1.0 LDE flare in AR 11893 peaking on NOV 19 at 10:42 UTC was associated to a major SEP    

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:
 

INTEGRAL 10 MeV PROTON FLUX:

unknown 20131214/ 08 UTC 20131215/ 18 UTC 1.5 pfu.

unknown

ONLY SHORT EVENT  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  

INTEGRAL> 0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)

 

     

non yet

 

INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)

 

      none yet  
PREVIOUS SEP EVENT/ short event description> An X 1.0 LDE flare in AR 11893 peaking on NOV 19 at 10:42 UTC was associated to a major SEP    

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:
 

INTEGRAL 10 MeV PROTON FLUX:

20131119/ 10: 42 UTC 20131119/ 12:00 UTC 20131121/ 00:0= UTC 4 pfu.

27.700 km/second

ONLY SHORT EVENT  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  

INTEGRAL> 0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)

 

     

none yet/ overlapsed by proton events

 

INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)

 

      none yet/ overlapsed by proton events  

 

       
ABBREVIATIONS/ CLASS >
       

SOLAR STORMS (SAPor SEP ) ARE INTENSIVE EMISSIONS OF HIGH ACCELERATED SOLAR PARTICLES ( PROTON/ ELECTRONS)

       

* SAP OR:" SEP" = SOLAR ACCELERATED (OR: ENERGETIC) PARTICLES (PR., EL.)

         

 

 

     
(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS
SOURCES:
 
               

CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL EVENTS

LAST UPDATE

20131228  
 
                 
 
CH High Speed Solar wind Stream (HSS from decaying CH 594) X RAY > M 5 G2 GEOMAGNETIC STORM

EXPECTED CME IMPACT

APPROACHING CMEs :

SEP EVENT

 
        estimated arrival (s)n > 20131209/ 10  

SEP EVENTS>

ACTIVE SEP

> 10 MeV PROTONS > 1.0 > 10 pfu > 2 MeV ELECTRONS  

ELECTRONS ARE ACTIVE ABOVE NORTHERN POL

 
ACUMMULATION OF SUCCEEDING SEPs! 20131228/ 19 UTC   ELECTRON ACCUMULATION: ELECTRON FLUX IS DENSE , BUT UNDER GRAVITY INFLUENCE BY ONGOING PROTON IMPACTS  
                 
LATEST SIGNIFICANT SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL EVENTS  
     
   
 

LATEST SOLAR EVENT- DECEMBER 24- 25 2013

AR 11936 on 20131228/ 18:10 UTC    
update/ December 28: Another. this time STRONGER SEP- the third within three weeks occured today on DECEMBER 28 .A possibly related solar event was observed at 18: 10 on SDO produced by AR 11936 (position: S17E19) The event was fully halo on SoHo. First protons arrive shortly before 19 UTC, Suggested , the solar event occured at 18:10 UTC. protons needed around 40 minutes to the Earth, what would result as a speed of around 62.000 km/ second. The fastest SEP in 2013 happened in May with protons at acclerated near to the speed of light. Protons flux rapidly increased after 19 UTC and is likely to exceed 10 pfu today. The effects of this SEP are not really measurable since more or less one SEP follows the other and the interactivity between Protons and later atrrackted electrons neutzralize each other only on the instruments In reality following SEPs sum up and accumulated ( so my estimation) an critical amount of heat within the earth mantle. . Several hopt spots steady intensified with activity. Magmatic tremors oin the Canaries have reacjhed a magnitude above 5.4 on December 27. and heat within the earth mantle will even grow higher with this SEP and might give the canary hotspot the last push to erupt soon. If the sun does not make a rest with its SEPs, global catastrophies from volcano eruptions to storms , floodings, weather anomalies and earthquakes in its final state very likely might reach global scale in January 2014..e fastest SEP
 

 

update/ December 26: A new SEP was observed on December 26 with first protons impacting after 09 UTC The source of the event is unclear. There were numerous minor solar flares in the morning. The source of the SEP might have been an C class LDE in Region 11936.6. Proton rose above 1 pfu during December 26 . The event is ongoing

update/ December 25: Electron flux rapidly began to drop on December 25 after 00 UTC: This might be an indicator for an upcoming stronger Earth or Seaquake event in the regions as mentioned in my experminental Earthquake forecast below. Alert level was therefor raised after 17 UTC to red with a possibility of Earthquakes with magnitudes higher than M 7.5. (8.0?) in the coming two days

 

 

               

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

ORANGE BACKGROUND= " LATENCY" = LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE LATENT/ EXPECTABLE , BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER UNLIKELY- WATCH!  
             

ALERT LEVEL

         
CONTINUING PROTON STORM. ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES TODAY

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

REMARKS AND/ OR PROBABILITY  

29. DECEMBER 2013
 

M 5.5 - 7.0 ( likely magmatic)

1- 3 POSSIBLE (PROTON IMPACT)  
30. DECEMBER 2013  

M 5.5 - 7.0 ( likely magmatic)

2- 3 POSSIBLE (PROTON IMPACT)  
31 DECEMBER 2013  

M 5.5 - 7.0 ( likely magmatic)

2- 3 POSSIBLE (PROTON IMPACT)  

ABOUT LATENCIES:

   

INFLUENCES:

HIGHTENED ACTIVE ELECTRONS (+) PROTON IMPACT (SEP)- DECREASING  

EFFECTING AS >

INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS(/EARTHQUAKES: HIGHER  

NOTES:* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

(In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 
                 
20131228/ integral electron flux under pressure of the new proton storm
 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

background influence:

SEP( DEC 14)

EFFECTIVE CMEs/ int. Nrs. >

CME CLUSTER: 42/13 a-d/ 43- 45/ 13
 

ALERT LEVEL

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS: LATEST CME IMPACT REGIONS/ =EXPECTABLE EVENT REGIONS  

PROTON IMPACT

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES (INCREASING ) PRIMARY REGIONS IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

BACKGROUND EVENTS:

 
 

INDUCED CURRENTS (+)

NORTH AMERICA/ WEST LONGITUDES: 30° - 150° W/ 150°- 180° W ACCUMULATING SEP EVENTS!  

RADIO BLACKOUTS (PROTON INFLUENCE) HIGH!

SOUTH AMERICA

PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< NASCA

IMPACT HEMISPHERE:

 
SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS/ TORNADOES (+) CENTRAL AMERICA

ATLANTIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< CARRIBEAN >< COCOS

CENTRAL > SOUTH

 
WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) W- EUROPE/ E ATLANTIC

N- AMERICA ><EURASIA ><AFRICA

 

 
RAPIDE MELTDOWNS OF GLACIERS OR PERMAICE EASTERN PACIFIC N- AMERICA >< INDO/ AUS ><PAC SEVERAL RECENT SAP EVENTS AND CMES HAVE ACCUMULATED A HIGH POTENTIAL OF (HEAT-) ENERGY WITHIN THE EARTH BODY!  

SEP EFFECTS:

PROTONS: GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (+)

 

SECONDARY REGIONS :

 
HOT SPOTS > VOLCANIC HOT SPOT ACTIVITIES/ MAGMATIC TREMORS (+) EURASIA/ EAST LONGITUDES : 90°- 15 ° E  
PROTONS > PROTON IMPACT > SOUTHERN POLE (- ) EAST AFRICA/ INDIA

N- AMERICA ><EURASIA ><AFRICA

 
EARTHQUAKES > LOW/ ELECTRONS HEATING TECTONIC PLATES (+)

JAPAN- INDONESIA

LONGITUDES : 180 ° - 90° E *REGIONS> see definition below  
ELECTRONS > TEMPERATURE ANOMALITIES NEAR NORTHERN POLE

VOLCANO/ HOT SPOT ACTIVITY >

LOW  
CLIMATE WEATHER >
ATMOSPHERIC HEATING EFFECTS/ ANOMALIES NEAR NORTHERN POLE/ STORMS ETC. ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY >>> HIGHER ( PROTON IMPACT))  
NOTES TO SEP EVENTS::               read also: NASA SCIENCE/ 2005:NASA - A New Kind of Solar Storm  
USUALLY, SEPS begin with an outburst of highly accelerated PROTONS from the Sun. First protons arrive from 15 minutes until, several hours after the event where they move along the geomagnetic field lines towards the Earth`s Southern geomag pole, causing ( depending on the intensity) temporary heat effects on the polar surface, atmosphere and "Earth axis" likely even deep within the Earth core, what ( statistically- see previous blogs to SEP) mostly leads almost synchronously to increased activities on so called hot spot volcanoes , already minutes , resp < 1 hour after the first protons began to impact. Protons storms can last days and accumulate with following SEPs. The integral electron flux will begin to rise/ become effective when proton impact decreases,and the temporary positive component they add to the geomag field begins to attrack electrons from the solar EM field. Electron accumulation can last for weeks (but following NEW SEPS will neutralise, resp just "surpress" electron effectivity) . Electron accumulation can have many effects: typical are: INTENSIVE thunderstorms and tornadoes , but also volcanic eruptions, higher temperatures and rel. droughts in the higher latitudes up to the (mainly NORTH) polar regions what weakens the sea currents , by a lower temperature difference. Heat between equatorals and polar regions then is exchanged more over the ATMOSPHERE and that brings heavy rain to the middle latitudes. Accumulated electrons also can cause induced currents even down to the ground, such as in power grids, but also pipelines and ( ship fires coincident with SEP impacts suggest, that CMEs also especially might induce currents through the salty ocean into SHIPS!!.) The effects of SEPs HOWEVER DIRECTLY depend on the intensity of the SEPs initial proton flux and its duration, and could be forecasted very well .Nevertheless -following SEPs can accumulate higher energies in terms of heating up the Earth core and mantle , that can`t be measured nor predicted but just estimated. In NOAA space weather predictions. mainly provided for satellite and airflight protection , integral > 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be real effective from a value of 10 pfu. upwards (= S1 solar storm) . In geophysical terms protons are effective at each level. . SEPS are the only known type of POTENTIAL DANGEROUS solar events (depending on their intensity) . They simply - as NASA expressed it : "CAN DO EVERYTHING"  
                       

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

DECEMBER

 

DAY:

28

 

     
                       

ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

   

TODAY`s EVENTS

 
                       
GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC      
  EPICENTER/ MAP    
highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>    

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.9 - WESTERN TURKEY - 2013-12-28 15:21:06 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE > 36.02 N ; 31.32 E DEPTH > 64 km    

 

             

RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

NONE ( DEFAULT) for current status, check out >
 
 
EARTHQUAKE REGIONS/ FROM 180° E ON WESTWARDS

TECTONICS:

FREQUENCY/ SINCE

REGION*

EPICENTER:

NUMBER

EVENT ( link to ESMC)  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM / MARIANA ISLANDS REGION JAPAN N-AM. >< EUR. >< PAC.><PHIL. FREQUENT

"B"

EPICENTER 6 ( 3X > M5) M 5.5 - MARIANA ISLANDS REGION - 2013-12-28 19:31:28 UTC  
EASTERN PACIFIC/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC. PAC. >< INDO- AUS FREQUENT

"B"

EPICENTER 2 x > M 5 M 5.9 - TONGA - 2013-12-28 19:06:18 UTC  
        EPICENTER 01 M 5.8 - NORTH OF ASCENSION ISLAND - 2013-12-28 18:59:06 UTC  
SWARM/ AZORES ISLANDS REGION N & S -AM. >< AFR >< EURASIA HOT SPOT / AFTER SEP

"E"

EPICENTER 01 M 3.3 - CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION - 2013-12-28 00:42:28 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report  
 

 

 

                   
NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES
 
This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >
         

 

 

                     
TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS
             
                 
               
               
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
                   
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
INDIAN OCEAN:
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
Tropical Cyclone Christine DEC 28- 2013 SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN 65 MPH () 120.2° E 16.6° N
100 KM OFFSHORE NW OF BROOME/ NW-AUSTTRALIA
SSW
TC
 
                     
NOAA/ Hurricane Center NASA/ GOES NOAA usno.navy.mil METEOALARM METEOSAT

reports taken from:

 

 

 

               

HEADLINES

2013

 

 

         
 

volcano-discovery/ Sunday, Dec 29, 2013

Etna volcano (Sicily): New SE crater wakes upThis morning at 11:16 (local time), an ash explosion occurred from the New SE crater, accompanied by a rise in tremor. This is similar to the precursory activity of the recent past paroxysms and probably means that the magma column inside the cone's conduit has started to rise and began to clear its way by sporadic, but potentially quite powerful explosions.

 

 

 
             
         
               

 

 

           

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

 

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

   

SUNSPOT NUMBER

95

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

271-397

FLARES >

C

09

 

SOLAR FLUX (SFU)

134.4

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 4.8

 

M

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

01

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

75- 125 nT

CME impact

X

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

/ CLASS/ CONF.*

 

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

IMPACT SIZE:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

rotated out ( DEC17)

11927

       

 

 

 

 

   
rotatiedout ( DEC 25)

11928

       

 

 

 

 

   
 

11929

52° - 66° W

11° S

             
rotating out (DEC27)

11930

77° - 91 ° W

10° S

             
 

11931

22° - 36° W

14° S

  DEC 25          
reeemerged (DEC22)

11932

39° - 53° W

04° N

             
faded( DEC 22)

11933

64° - 78° W

12° S

             
 

11935

07° E - 07° W

05° S

  DEC- 27            
 

11936

33°- 19° E

18° S

  DEC- 28          
 

11937

60°- 46° E

13° S

  DEC- 31          
NEWLY EMERGED

11938

79°- 65° E

13° S

  JAN 02          

SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

08

 

 

         

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

               
                     

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region          

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**          
*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson          
                       

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

Coronal Holes (CH) are darker regions on the Sun`s surface, where likely denser elements accumulate. Initially it was believed, that the solar gas hull would have there lower density, thus they would represent "holes" in the corona. Some coronal holes make giant magnetic loops reaching until the Eart s orbit, along those then high speed solar wind are kind of pumped through the geomag field back to the solar surface ( RECURRENT SOLAR WIND STREAMS)
 
NUMBER POSITION*: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING MAG &remarks  

CH UNN..

NORTHERN

SLOWLY DECAYING DEC 06 DEC 11

 

 

CH 598

CENTRAL GROWING DEC- 24 DEC 29- 30

 

 
                     
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

           
     

 

             
ABBREVIATIONS> NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT)          
RECURR.= RECURRENT T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL ext= extended UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH            
                     

Today`s USAF report on solar activity >>

                 
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 28/1802Z from Region 1936 (S17E06). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Dec, 30 Dec, 31 Dec).      
             

OBSERVED SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY

                 

SUNSPOTS >

RISING

X- RAY/ ERUPTIONS >

LOW- ACTIVE

           
FLUCTUATIONS IN SOLAR ACTIVITY

currently peaking ( yellow background):

 

             
SHORT PERIOD FLUCTUATION APPR. 1/2 YEAR FLUCTUATION 11 YEAR SUN SPOT CYCLE

60/ 120 YEAR CYCLE? (unknown)

           

OVERLAPSING CYCLES

 

MARCH 2013

 

           
LAST PEAKS ^^
                 
                       
   

 

 

                 
INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX
           
                       

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT : LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:      
PROTON FLUX HIGHER

RISING AFTER SEP EVENTS ON DECEMBRER 26 and 28- 2013

ELECTRON FLUX NORMAL

SHORT PEAKS DURING SEP EVENTS ON DEC 26 and 28- 2013

     
BEGIN/ END: 20131119

ongoing

 

BEGIN/ END:    

 

 

     

 

 

                     

TERRESTRIAL

                 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

                 

 

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment /

GOES satellites are at geostationary orbit and measure influences / impacts on the geomagnetic field  

QUIET

         

UNSETTLED

     

ACTIVE

     

MINOR STORM

     

MAJOR STORM

     

 

     

CME IMPACT

             
       
       
                       
Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>                    
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 379 km/s at 28/2040Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 28/1620Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 28/2059Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5 pfu at 28/2055Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (29 Dec, 30 Dec, 31 Dec). Protons greater than 10 Mev are expected to cross threshold on day one (29 Dec) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (30 Dec).      
                       

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES      

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT (2)

PAST 24 h

ALERTS AS ISSUED BY NOAA

     
 

X RAY > M 5 (FLARE ACTIVITY)

NONE

NONE
peaks in solar x ray emissions generally generally flare activities )
 

CME event

TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION NONE NONE
TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS are typical indicators for Coronal Mass Ejections ( CME)
 
 

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

NONE
10 cm RADIO BURSTS are typical indicators for STRONGER ERUPTIONS Coronal Mass ejections ( CME)
 
G 2

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

an index how far the geomagnetic electron flux is disturbed mainly by solar influences such as HSS
 
                     
GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -04 nT/ 1858Z (USAF) NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 09 nT/ 1701Z (USAF) The Bz component is the value, the geomagnetic fiels density fluctuates /shifts in North/ South direction such as during CME impacts  
EFFECTIVE PROTONS NO DATA

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

           
new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report and report that represents the highest N/ S amplitude of that day          
                       
             
   

TODAY`S SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE IMPACTS

           
NOAA ELECTRONS>   <NOAA PROTONS      
           
INTEGRAL PARTICLE FLUX:        

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS: (2)

     

> 10 MeV PROTONS(4)

> 0, 1 pfu < 2.5 pfu

+/- 0.1 pfu.

> 2 pfu.      
  CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):      

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS:

       

>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS (1)

>90. < 1.500 pfu (-)

>40. < 8.000 pfu (-)

Proton infl.        

>2.0 MeV ELECTRONS(1)

1- 10 pfu (-)

4- 40 pfu (-)

Proton infl.      
NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA

NO CURRENT DATA

UNKNOWN      
(2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values      
(4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu      

 

 

               

ACTIVE SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS (SEP)

STATUS: ACTIVE SEP          

LATEST GEOEFFECTIVE SEP:

2013 suggested TIME OF SOLAR SEP EVENT: DECEMBER 14- 2013 at      
SEP EVENT/ short event description>      

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:
 

INTEGRAL 10 MeV PROTON FLUX:

unknown 201312126 08 UTC ongoing rising

unknown

   
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  

INTEGRAL> 0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)

 

     

non yet

 

INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)

 

      none yet  
SEP EVENT/ short event description> An X 1.0 LDE flare in AR 11893 peaking on NOV 19 at 10:42 UTC was associated to a major SEP    

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:
 

INTEGRAL 10 MeV PROTON FLUX:

unknown 20131214/ 08 UTC 20131215/ 18 UTC 1.5 pfu.

unknown

ONLY SHORT EVENT  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  

INTEGRAL> 0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)

 

     

non yet

 

INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)

 

      none yet  
PREVIOUS SEP EVENT/ short event description> An X 1.0 LDE flare in AR 11893 peaking on NOV 19 at 10:42 UTC was associated to a major SEP    

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:
 

INTEGRAL 10 MeV PROTON FLUX:

20131119/ 10: 42 UTC 20131119/ 12:00 UTC 20131121/ 00:0= UTC 4 pfu.

27.700 km/second

ONLY SHORT EVENT  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  

INTEGRAL> 0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)

 

     

none yet/ overlapsed by proton events

 

INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)

 

      none yet/ overlapsed by proton events  

 

       
ABBREVIATIONS/ CLASS >
       

SOLAR STORMS (SAPor SEP ) ARE INTENSIVE EMISSIONS OF HIGH ACCELERATED SOLAR PARTICLES ( PROTON/ ELECTRONS)

       

* SAP OR:" SEP" = SOLAR ACCELERATED (OR: ENERGETIC) PARTICLES (PR., EL.)

         

 

 

     
(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS
SOURCES:
 
               

CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL EVENTS

LAST UPDATE

20131227  
 
                 
 
CH High Speed Solar wind Stream (HSS from decaying CH 594) X RAY > M 5 G2 GEOMAGNETIC STORM

EXPECTED CME IMPACT

APPROACHING CMEs :

SEP EVENT

 
        estimated arrival (s)n > 20131209/ 10  

SEP EVENTS>

ACTIVE SEP

> 10 MeV PROTONS > 1.0 > 10 pfu > 2 MeV ELECTRONS  

ELECTRONS ARE ACTIVE ABOVE NORTHERN POL

 
ACUMMULATION OF SUCCEEDING SEPs! 20131228/ 19 UTC   ELECTRON ACCUMULATION: ELECTRON FLUX IS DENSE , BUT UNDER GRAVITY INFLUENCE BY ONGOING PROTON IMPACTS  
                 
LATEST SIGNIFICANT SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL EVENTS  
     
   
 

LATEST SOLAR EVENT- DECEMBER 24- 25 2013

AR 11936 on 20131228/ 18:10 UTC    
update/ December 28: Another. this time STRONGER SEP- the third within three weeks occured today on DECEMBER 28 .A possibly related solar event was observed at 18: 10 on SDO produced by AR 11936 (position: S17E19) The event was fully halo on SoHo. First protons arrive shortly before 19 UTC, Suggested , the solar event occured at 18:10 UTC. protons needed around 40 minutes to the Earth, what would result as a speed of around 62.000 km/ second. The fastest SEP in 2013 happened in May with protons at acclerated near to the speed of light. Protons flux rapidly increased after 19 UTC and is likely to exceed 10 pfu today. The effects of this SEP are not really measurable since more or less one SEP follows the other and the interactivity between Protons and later atrrackted electrons neutzralize each other only on the instruments In reality following SEPs sum up and accumulated ( so my estimation) an critical amount of heat within the earth mantle. . Several hopt spots steady intensified with activity. Magmatic tremors oin the Canaries have reacjhed a magnitude above 5.4 on December 27. and heat within the earth mantle will even grow higher with this SEP and might give the canary hotspot the last push to erupt soon. If the sun does not make a rest with its SEPs, global catastrophies from volcano eruptions to storms , floodings, weather anomalies and earthquakes in its final state very likely might reach global scale in January 2014..e fastest SEP
 

 

update/ December 26: A new SEP was observed on December 26 with first protons impacting after 09 UTC The source of the event is unclear. There were numerous minor solar flares in the morning. The source of the SEP might have been an C class LDE in Region 11936.6. Proton rose above 1 pfu during December 26 . The event is ongoing

update/ December 25: Electron flux rapidly began to drop on December 25 after 00 UTC: This might be an indicator for an upcoming stronger Earth or Seaquake event in the regions as mentioned in my experminental Earthquake forecast below. Alert level was therefor raised after 17 UTC to red with a possibility of Earthquakes with magnitudes higher than M 7.5. (8.0?) in the coming two days

Numerous backside flare and CMEs occured on December 23 and 24. One minor associated frontside flare had effects on the geomagnetic field on December 25. On Dec 24. solar activity dropped to a kind of low or dead point, as also the geomagnetic field activity did/ does during each soltice (see x- ray graph right side).This year both values ramained rather high- Latest proton events have created adense electron accumulation around the Northern Poles, that causes the temperature anomalie responsible for the weather systems that took place around Christmas time on the northern Hemisohere This phenomenon of lower activities can be observed during both soltices, when he Sun and Earth allignes with the galactical Center of the Milky Way in Sagittarius A. As I could see on SDO images, astronomically calculated events such as New moon dates differ oftenly for several hours to that time when the moon indeed passes by in front of the SDO lense, what is on an geosychronous orbit right between the Earth and the Sun.. The Sun with its giant magnetic field seems to be EXTREMELY SENSITIVE to all kind of cosmical influences expecially gravity forces those accumulate during alignments of the sun with two or more planets or other celestial objects. With this side effect of the Solar magnetism, the Sun is best comparable with a giant amplifier: each weak signal you put in has a stronger impuls and reaction inside( also depending on tha acutual volume of that amplifier) The force of the gravity core in the middle of the milky way however influences and drags all stars planets and moon along until the outreaches of the Milky Way.The gravity connection to the galactic core on the December 24th just a bit compresses the Sun now and activity might strongy resume/ increase soon afterwards, likely already on December 25 and 26 with possible major flares and CMEs.
 
SOLAR EVENT- DECEMBER 19 201.3.Solar Sun Spot activity is likely dropping toone of its annual dead points during the solar soltices . These " dead points" twice a year during the soltices are likely caused by gravity accumulation during the alignment/ conjunction of the Earth, the Sun and the central core of the milky way during both soltices , resp. the giant black hole in Sagittarius (A) which influences all celestial bodies throughout the galaxy. Its nevertheless kind of mysterious, but unresearched yet, as this would mean, that not only the earth has influence on the solar sun spot activity, but the other planets might have as well.
 

 

 

               

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

ORANGE BACKGROUND= " LATENCY" = LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE LATENT/ EXPECTABLE , BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER UNLIKELY- WATCH!  
             

ALERT LEVEL

         
CONTINUING PROTON STORM. ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES TODAY

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

REMARKS AND/ OR PROBABILITY  

28. DECEMBER 2013
 

M 5.5 - 7.0 ( likely magmatic)

1- 3 POSSIBLE (PROTON IMPACT)  
29. DECEMBER 2013  

M 5.5 - 7.0 ( likely magmatic)

2- 3 POSSIBLE (PROTON IMPACT)  
30 DECEMBER 2013  

M 5.5 - 7.0 ( likely magmatic)

2- 3 POSSIBLE (PROTON IMPACT)  

ABOUT LATENCIES:

   

INFLUENCES:

HIGHTENED ACTIVE ELECTRONS (+) PROTON IMPACT (SEP)- DECREASING  

EFFECTING AS >

INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS(/EARTHQUAKES: HIGHER  

NOTES:* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

(In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 
                 
20131228/ integral electron flux under pressure of the new proton storm
 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

background influence:

SEP( DEC 14)

EFFECTIVE CMEs/ int. Nrs. >

CME CLUSTER: 42/13 a-d/ 43- 45/ 13
 

ALERT LEVEL

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS: LATEST CME IMPACT REGIONS/ =EXPECTABLE EVENT REGIONS  

PROTON IMPACT

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES (INCREASING ) PRIMARY REGIONS IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

BACKGROUND EVENTS:

 
 

INDUCED CURRENTS (+)

NORTH AMERICA/ WEST LONGITUDES: 30° - 150° W/ 150°- 180° W ACCUMULATING SEP EVENTS!  

RADIO BLACKOUTS (PROTON INFLUENCE) HIGH!

SOUTH AMERICA

PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< NASCA

IMPACT HEMISPHERE:

 
SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS/ TORNADOES (+) CENTRAL AMERICA

ATLANTIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< CARRIBEAN >< COCOS

CENTRAL > SOUTH

 
WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) W- EUROPE/ E ATLANTIC

N- AMERICA ><EURASIA ><AFRICA

 

 
RAPIDE MELTDOWNS OF GLACIERS OR PERMAICE EASTERN PACIFIC N- AMERICA >< INDO/ AUS ><PAC SEVERAL RECENT SAP EVENTS AND CMES HAVE ACCUMULATED A HIGH POTENTIAL OF (HEAT-) ENERGY WITHIN THE EARTH BODY!  

SEP EFFECTS:

PROTONS: GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (+)

 

SECONDARY REGIONS :

 
HOT SPOTS > VOLCANIC HOT SPOT ACTIVITIES/ MAGMATIC TREMORS (+) EURASIA/ EAST LONGITUDES : 90°- 15 ° E  
PROTONS > PROTON IMPACT > SOUTHERN POLE (- ) EAST AFRICA/ INDIA

N- AMERICA ><EURASIA ><AFRICA

 
EARTHQUAKES > LOW/ ELECTRONS HEATING TECTONIC PLATES (+)

JAPAN- INDONESIA

LONGITUDES : 180 ° - 90° E *REGIONS> see definition below  
ELECTRONS > TEMPERATURE ANOMALITIES NEAR NORTHERN POLE

VOLCANO/ HOT SPOT ACTIVITY >

LOW  
CLIMATE WEATHER >
ATMOSPHERIC HEATING EFFECTS/ ANOMALIES NEAR NORTHERN POLE/ STORMS ETC. ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY >>> HIGHER ( PROTON IMPACT))  
NOTES TO SEP EVENTS::               read also: NASA SCIENCE/ 2005:NASA - A New Kind of Solar Storm  
USUALLY, SEPS begin with an outburst of highly accelerated PROTONS from the Sun. First protons arrive from 15 minutes until, several hours after the event where they move along the geomagnetic field lines towards the Earth`s Southern geomag pole, causing ( depending on the intensity) temporary heat effects on the polar surface, atmosphere and "Earth axis" likely even deep within the Earth core, what ( statistically- see previous blogs to SEP) mostly leads almost synchronously to increased activities on so called hot spot volcanoes , already minutes , resp < 1 hour after the first protons began to impact. Protons storms can last days and accumulate with following SEPs. The integral electron flux will begin to rise/ become effective when proton impact decreases,and the temporary positive component they add to the geomag field begins to attrack electrons from the solar EM field. Electron accumulation can last for weeks (but following NEW SEPS will neutralise, resp just "surpress" electron effectivity) . Electron accumulation can have many effects: typical are: INTENSIVE thunderstorms and tornadoes , but also volcanic eruptions, higher temperatures and rel. droughts in the higher latitudes up to the (mainly NORTH) polar regions what weakens the sea currents , by a lower temperature difference. Heat between equatorals and polar regions then is exchanged more over the ATMOSPHERE and that brings heavy rain to the middle latitudes. Accumulated electrons also can cause induced currents even down to the ground, such as in power grids, but also pipelines and ( ship fires coincident with SEP impacts suggest, that CMEs also especially might induce currents through the salty ocean into SHIPS!!.) The effects of SEPs HOWEVER DIRECTLY depend on the intensity of the SEPs initial proton flux and its duration, and could be forecasted very well .Nevertheless -following SEPs can accumulate higher energies in terms of heating up the Earth core and mantle , that can`t be measured nor predicted but just estimated. In NOAA space weather predictions. mainly provided for satellite and airflight protection , integral > 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be real effective from a value of 10 pfu. upwards (= S1 solar storm) . In geophysical terms protons are effective at each level. . SEPS are the only known type of POTENTIAL DANGEROUS solar events (depending on their intensity) . They simply - as NASA expressed it : "CAN DO EVERYTHING"  

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

DECEMBER

 

DAY:

27

 

     
                       

ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

   

TODAY`s EVENTS

 
                       
GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC      
  EPICENTER/ MAP    
highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>    

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.4 - CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION - 2013-12-27 17:46:06 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE > 28.00 N ; 18.43 W DEPTH > 14 km    

 

             

RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

NONE ( DEFAULT) for current status, check out >
 
                       
 
EARTHQUAKE REGIONS/ FROM 180° E ON WESTWARDS

TECTONICS:

FREQUENCY/ SINCE

REGION*

EPICENTER:

NUMBER

EVENT ( link to ESMC)  
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA/ KURIL ISLANDS / JAPAN N-AM. >< EUR. >< PAC.><PHIL. FREQUENT

"B"

EPICENTER 01 M 5.0 - NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN - 2013-12-27 10:31:20 UTC  
SWARM/ EL HIERRO/ CANARY ISLANDS REGION N & S -AM. >< AFR >< EURASIA HOT SPOT / AFTER SEP

"E"

EPICENTER 3 x > M 3 M 3.6 - CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION - 2013-12-27 22:47:05 UTC  
NORTHERN ATLANTIC/ ARCTIC SEA N & S -AM. ><EURASIA FROM TIME TO TIME

"E"

EPICENTER 01 M 4.6 - SVALBARD REGION - 2013-12-27 00:07:01 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report  
 

 

 

                   
NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES
 
This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >
         

 

 

                     
TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS
             
                 
               
               
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
                   
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
INDIAN OCEAN:
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
                   
                     
NOAA/ Hurricane Center NASA/ GOES NOAA usno.navy.mil METEOALARM METEOSAT

reports taken from:

 

 

 

               

HEADLINES

2013

 

 

         
 

EL HIERRO / CANARYISLANDS: quake swarm continued with strongest activity since it began in 2011.

A first major 5.4 magnitude seaquake occured on December 27 offshore in about 30 km distance NWW of the island El Hierro / Canaries.The Canaries ar situtated on a sea plateau that likeely broke off from the West african coast at any time in history. This common basement is believed to be at about 5000 meters default sea depth. But since the strong sea currents- mainly the gulf stream- have covered it up to a depth of 3.700 meter below zero with at öeast 1- 1, 5 km of sand and sediments, its almost impossible to explore the islands real geology and volcanic structures. . As I remember previous examinations or rather theories, this is about where the hot spot that feeds the island`s volcanisms actually is believed to be situated. The first 5.4 quake after two days of silence was at about 14 depth,the following M 3.6 quake was measured in about 10 km depth, whereby this value is often used if the really depth is uncertain. Allthough ( due to Earthquake- report. com) the M 5.4 quake was not caused by magma movement, the shock was likely caused by uprising magma breaking through a barrier that was maybe closed by the previous activity, ( to my readers:) I dont`t have to mention anymore that this earthquake swarm as all previous activity phases of activity at the canary hotspot since 2011) all occured after significant solar SEPs , whereby the intensity of the SEP determined the intensity of the following activity, what makes it well predictable. At the moment I can only guess ( as measurements go wrong when protons from suceeeding SEPs interact with electrons still active with previous ones- and opposite ) that a higher amount of heat has accumulated within the earth mantle, what makes all hot spot volcanoes more active at the moment. There is a high chance of a surface eruption coming up soon. if then near to El Hierro, with an intensity for sure at least half times higher than in 2011 or an phreatic eruption- erxplosion if the lava has to brake free it way to the surface.

The M 5.4 quake even followed a minor by geoeffective new SEP event on December 26., whereby the first protons (always folllowing the longitudinal geomagnetic field lines towards the South ) impacted directly above Europe and the Atlantic, where the Canaries are. ). . .However- the Canaries have a minus in Tourism since the activity began in 20111 and are therefore busy to calm down its visitors and residents with messages via their youtube channel. (video left side)

The worst thing, any hot spot volcano would normally do, is to open a fissure and to spill its hot fluid lava around (as does Kilauea or Etna).They are only dangerous when all openings are closed by the hard hotspot lava of a previous activity The worst of all cases a shield volcano could perform, would be a phreatic explosion such as known at Thera 1.500 BC.Since excavuations on Thera showed tha obvioulsy all inhabitants had fled the island before, it is believed that the volcano made many warning signals until more than 90% of the island were torn apart by an gigantic"phreatic" hydrogen explosion/ accumulation in its volcanic system below, where seawater reacted with upwelling hot spot lava during a new activity phase. Those indicators likely would be: rising ground temperature that can be really felt) or / and ,steam emissions on miscancillous places. ( 20131228) by: alien-homepage.

further readings: The Canary Islands Hot Spot

Der Kanarische Hotspot - Hypothesen zur Entstehung der Kanarischen Inseln

.. Due to El Hierro blogspot- the 5. 4 quake 10 km west of eEl Gulfo valley ( El Hierrro) was felt with ground shakings and breaking glasses, higher waves etc. on the nearby islands of La Palma and La Gomera.On El Hierro itself, tourists were evacuated from the Southwest beaches, some roads had to be closed after rockfalls and cracks , such as the road in valley del Golfo- from Sabinosa Richtung to Lomo Negro; Rockfalls are a special threat on the Canaries since many houses were built directly under rather fragile rock formations..
(upper video) Mensaje a la población del Presidente del Cabildo de El Hierro, Alp           bathymetric map of the Canaries taken from: Der Kanarische Hotspot - Hypothesen zur Entstehung der Kanarischen Inseln
         
               

 

 

           

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

 

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

   

SUNSPOT NUMBER

107

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

271-365

FLARES >

C

06

 

SOLAR FLUX (SFU)

130.6

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 3.7

 

M

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

01

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

80- 130 nT

weak CME impact

X

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

/ CLASS/ CONF.*

 

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

IMPACT SIZE:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

rotated out ( DEC17)

11927

       

 

 

 

 

   
rotatiedout ( DEC 25)

11928

       

 

 

 

 

   
 

11929

52° - 66° W

11° S

BXO

           
rotating out (DEC27)

11930

77° - 91 ° W

10° S

AXX/ HAX

           
 

11931

22° - 36° W

14° S

CAO/ FKI

DEC 25          
reeemerged (DEC22)

11932

39° - 53° W

04° N

 

           
faded( DEC 22)

11933

64° - 78° W

12° S

 

           
 

11935

07° E - 07° W

05° S

AXX/ HRX

DEC- 27            
 

11936

33°- 19° E

18° S

EAI

DEC- 28          
NEWLY EMERGED>

11937

60°- 46° E

13° S

BXO/ DRI

DEC- 31          

SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

08

 

 

         

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

               
                     

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region          

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**          
*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson          
                       

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

Coronal Holes (CH) are darker regions on the Sun`s surface, where likely denser elements accumulate. Initially it was believed, that the solar gas hull would have there lower density, thus they would represent "holes" in the corona. Some coronal holes make giant magnetic loops reaching until the Eart s orbit, along those then high speed solar wind are kind of pumped through the geomag field back to the solar surface ( RECURRENT SOLAR WIND STREAMS)
 
NUMBER POSITION*: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING MAG &remarks  

CH UNN..

NORTHERN

SLOWLY DECAYING DEC 06 DEC 11

 

 

CH 598

CENTRAL GROWING DEC- 24 DEC 29- 30

 

 
                     
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

           
     

 

             
ABBREVIATIONS> NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT)          
RECURR.= RECURRENT T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL ext= extended UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH            
                     

Today`s USAF report on solar activity >>

                 
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 27/1213Z from Region 1936 (S16E19). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Dec, 29 Dec, 30 Dec).      
             

OBSERVED SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY

                 

SUNSPOTS >

RISING

X- RAY/ ERUPTIONS >

LOW- ACTIVE

           
FLUCTUATIONS IN SOLAR ACTIVITY

currently peaking ( yellow background):

 

             
SHORT PERIOD FLUCTUATION APPR. 1/2 YEAR FLUCTUATION 11 YEAR SUN SPOT CYCLE

60/ 120 YEAR CYCLE? (unknown)

           

OVERLAPSING CYCLES

 

MARCH 2013

 

           
LAST PEAKS ^^
                 
                       
   

 

 

                 
INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX
           
                       

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT : LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:      
PROTON FLUX BACK TO NORMAL

SHORT PEAK ON DEC 25/ after 00 UTC by solar CME

ELECTRON FLUX NORMAL

SHORT PEAK ON DEC 24/ after 10 UTC by solar CME

     
BEGIN/ END: 20131119

ongoing

 

BEGIN/ END:    

 

 

     

 

 

                     

TERRESTRIAL

                 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

                 

 

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment /

GOES satellites are at geostationary orbit and measure influences / impacts on the geomagnetic field  

QUIET

         

UNSETTLED

     

ACTIVE

     

MINOR STORM

     

MAJOR STORM

     

 

     

CME IMPACT

             
       
       
                       
Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>                    
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 335 km/s at 27/1908Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 27/1701Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 27/1858Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 27/0250Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (28 Dec, 29 Dec, 30 Dec).      
                       

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES      

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT (2)

PAST 24 h

ALERTS AS ISSUED BY NOAA

     
R3

X RAY > M 5 (FLARE ACTIVITY)

NONE

NONE
peaks in solar x ray emissions generally generally flare activities )
 

CME event

TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION NONE NONE
TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS are typical indicators for Coronal Mass Ejections ( CME)
 
 

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

NONE
10 cm RADIO BURSTS are typical indicators for STRONGER ERUPTIONS Coronal Mass ejections ( CME)
 
G 2

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

an index how far the geomagnetic electron flux is disturbed mainly by solar influences such as HSS
 
                     
GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -04 nT/ 1858Z (USAF) NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 09 nT/ 1701Z (USAF) The Bz component is the value, the geomagnetic fiels density fluctuates /shifts in North/ South direction such as during CME impacts  
EFFECTIVE PROTONS NO DATA

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

           
new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report and report that represents the highest N/ S amplitude of that day          
                       
             
   

TODAY`S SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE IMPACTS

           
NOAA ELECTRONS> <NOAA PROTONS      
           
INTEGRAL PARTICLE FLUX:        

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS: (2)

     

> 10 MeV PROTONS(4)

> 0, 1 pfu < 2.5 pfu

+/- 0.1 pfu.

> 2 pfu.      
  CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):      

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS:

       

>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS (1)

>90. < 1.500 pfu (-)

>40. < 8.000 pfu (-)

Proton infl.        

>2.0 MeV ELECTRONS(1)

1- 10 pfu (-)

4- 40 pfu (-)

Proton infl.      
NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA

NO CURRENT DATA

UNKNOWN      
(2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values      
(4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu      

 

 

               

ACTIVE SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS (SEP)

STATUS: ACTIVE SEP          

LATEST GEOEFFECTIVE SEP:

2013 suggested TIME OF SOLAR SEP EVENT: DECEMBER 14- 2013 at      
SEP EVENT/ short event description>      

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:
 

INTEGRAL 10 MeV PROTON FLUX:

unknown 201312126 08 UTC ongoing rising

unknown

   
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  

INTEGRAL> 0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)

 

     

non yet

 

INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)

 

      none yet  
SEP EVENT/ short event description> An X 1.0 LDE flare in AR 11893 peaking on NOV 19 at 10:42 UTC was associated to a major SEP    

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:
 

INTEGRAL 10 MeV PROTON FLUX:

unknown 20131214/ 08 UTC 20131215/ 18 UTC 1.5 pfu.

unknown

ONLY SHORT EVENT  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  

INTEGRAL> 0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)

 

     

non yet

 

INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)

 

      none yet  
PREVIOUS SEP EVENT/ short event description> An X 1.0 LDE flare in AR 11893 peaking on NOV 19 at 10:42 UTC was associated to a major SEP    

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:
 

INTEGRAL 10 MeV PROTON FLUX:

20131119/ 10: 42 UTC 20131119/ 12:00 UTC 20131121/ 00:0= UTC 4 pfu.

27.700 km/second

ONLY SHORT EVENT  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  

INTEGRAL> 0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)

 

     

none yet/ overlapsed by proton events

 

INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)

 

      none yet/ overlapsed by proton events  

 

       
ABBREVIATIONS/ CLASS >
       

SOLAR STORMS (SAPor SEP ) ARE INTENSIVE EMISSIONS OF HIGH ACCELERATED SOLAR PARTICLES ( PROTON/ ELECTRONS)

       

* SAP OR:" SEP" = SOLAR ACCELERATED (OR: ENERGETIC) PARTICLES (PR., EL.)

         

 

 

     
(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS
SOURCES:
 
               

CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL EVENTS

LAST UPDATE

20131227  
 
                 
 
CH High Speed Solar wind Stream (HSS from decaying CH 594) X RAY > M 5 G2 GEOMAGNETIC STORM

EXPECTED CME IMPACT

APPROACHING CMEs :

SEP EVENT

 
        estimated arrival (s)n > 20131209/ 10  

SEP EVENTS>

ACTIVE SEP

> 10 MeV PROTONS > 1.0 pfu > 2 MeV ELECTRONS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 1000 pfu

ELECTRONS ARE ACTIVE ABOVE NORTHERN POL

 
ACUMMULATION OF SUCCEEDING SEPs! 20131226/ 09 UTC   ELECTRON ACCUMULATION: ELECTRON FLUX IS RATHER DENSE , BUT HAS LOWERED ENERGY CAUSED BYLATEST PROTON IMPACTS  
                 
LATEST SIGNIFICANT SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL EVENTS  
     
   
 

LATEST SOLAR EVENT- DECEMBER 24- 25 2013

     

 

update/ December 26: A new SEP was observed on December 26 with first protons impacting after 09 UTC The source of the event is unclear. There were numerous minor solar flares in the morning. The source of the SEP might have been an C class LDE in Region 11936.6. Proton rose above 1 pfu during December 26 . The event is ongoing

update/ December 25: Electron flux rapidly began to drop on December 25 after 00 UTC: This might be an indicator for an upcoming stronger Earth or Seaquake event in the regions as mentioned in my experminental Earthquake forecast below. Alert level was therefor raised after 17 UTC to red with a possibility of Earthquakes with magnitudes higher than M 7.5. (8.0?) in the coming two days

Numerous backside flare and CMEs occured on December 23 and 24. One minor associated frontside flare had effects on the geomagnetic field on December 25. On Dec 24. solar activity dropped to a kind of low or dead point, as also the geomagnetic field activity did/ does during each soltice (see x- ray graph right side).This year both values ramained rather high- Latest proton events have created adense electron accumulation around the Northern Poles, that causes the temperature anomalie responsible for the weather systems that took place around Christmas time on the northern Hemisohere This phenomenon of lower activities can be observed during both soltices, when he Sun and Earth allignes with the galactical Center of the Milky Way in Sagittarius A. As I could see on SDO images, astronomically calculated events such as New moon dates differ oftenly for several hours to that time when the moon indeed passes by in front of the SDO lense, what is on an geosychronous orbit right between the Earth and the Sun.. The Sun with its giant magnetic field seems to be EXTREMELY SENSITIVE to all kind of cosmical influences expecially gravity forces those accumulate during alignments of the sun with two or more planets or other celestial objects. With this side effect of the Solar magnetism, the Sun is best comparable with a giant amplifier: each weak signal you put in has a stronger impuls and reaction inside( also depending on tha acutual volume of that amplifier) The force of the gravity core in the middle of the milky way however influences and drags all stars planets and moon along until the outreaches of the Milky Way.The gravity connection to the galactic core on the December 24th just a bit compresses the Sun now and activity might strongy resume/ increase soon afterwards, likely already on December 25 and 26 with possible major flares and CMEs.
 
SOLAR EVENT- DECEMBER 19 201.3.Solar Sun Spot activity is likely dropping toone of its annual dead points during the solar soltices . These " dead points" twice a year during the soltices are likely caused by gravity accumulation during the alignment/ conjunction of the Earth, the Sun and the central core of the milky way during both soltices , resp. the giant black hole in Sagittarius (A) which influences all celestial bodies throughout the galaxy. Its nevertheless kind of mysterious, but unresearched yet, as this would mean, that not only the earth has influence on the solar sun spot activity, but the other planets might have as well.
 
ELDER SOLAR EVENT   CURRENTLY GEOEFFECTIVE SEP ( Solar Energetic Particles)    

SOLAR EVENT- DECEMBER 21 2013

very unlikely for christmas time (winter soltice), x ray lavel exceeded C level on December 20, while sun spot number is still below 150 but also rising (differently to previous years, when it mostly dropped almost to zero during winter soltice). Along with fast growing and again decaying coronal holes this pattern is a typical indicator for upcoming major flares or stronger SEP those are likely in the coming days.

SOLAR EVENT- DECEMBER 20 2013

A belt of active regions stretches out about 30 degrees South of the solar equator. while the rest of the solar disc is almost empty. All regions are active on a low C level. Only AR 11931, which just appeared on the eastern solar horizon produced an impressive M 5 + flare on Dec 20 at 00:26 UTC.>>

 

SOLAR EVENT- DECEMBER 14 2013.A major CME impacted on DEC 14 after and caused geomagnetic storming. Proton flux had already sightly increased after the C flare on Dec 12 but rose further (out of an unknown reason- there was no visible associated a eruption ) on Dec 14. Possibly these protons were ejected with the flare on Dec 12 but are very slow. On Dec 15 after 18 UTC- the integral proton flux was back on normal level.

SOLAR EVENT- DECEMBER 12 2013 The tension that built up within the sun during the past week began to unleash with an impressive LDE flare in AR 11917 [near the central meridian at S16E17] that began after 07 UTC on December 12. Early SoHo images show a noticible partial halo CME expanding from that event. As the flare appeared rather strong but measured only C 5 and as latest Goes data indicate, the event might be related to an increase of integral proton flux. (= SEP event) Later GOES data have to be awaited to be sure

 

 

 

               

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

ORANGE BACKGROUND= " LATENCY" = LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE LATENT/ EXPECTABLE , BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER UNLIKELY- WATCH!  
             

ALERT LEVEL

         
MINOR PROTON STORM. ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES TODAY

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

REMARKS AND/ OR PROBABILITY  

27. DECEMBER 2013
 

M 5.5 - > 7.0

1- 3 POSSIBLE  
28. DECEMBER 2013  

M 5.5 - > 7.0

2- 3 POSSIBLE ( DROPPING ELECTRONS)  
29 DECEMBER 2013  

M 5.5 -6.5

1-2 DECR./LATENCY (RISING ELECTRONS?)  

ABOUT LATENCIES:

   

INFLUENCES:

HIGHTENED ACTIVE ELECTRONS (+) PROTON IMPACT (SEP)- DECREASING  

EFFECTING AS >

INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS(/EARTHQUAKES: HIGHER  

NOTES:* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

(In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 
                 
20131223/ integral electron flux is still kind uf unnormal (comprimated):
 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

background influence:

SEP( DEC 14)

EFFECTIVE CMEs/ int. Nrs. >

CME CLUSTER: 42/13 a-d/ 43- 45/ 13
 

ALERT LEVEL

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS: LATEST CME IMPACT REGIONS/ =EXPECTABLE EVENT REGIONS  

PROTON IMPACT

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES (- LOWER ) PRIMARY REGIONS IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

BACKGROUND EVENTS:

 
 

INDUCED CURRENTS (+)

NORTH AMERICA/ WEST LONGITUDES: 30° - 150° W/ 150°- 180° W ACCUMULATING SEP EVENTS!  

RADIO BLACKOUTS (PROTON INFLUENCE) LOW

SOUTH AMERICA

PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< NASCA

IMPACT HEMISPHERE:

 
SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS/ TORNADOES (+) CENTRAL AMERICA

ATLANTIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< CARRIBEAN >< COCOS

CENTRAL > SOUTH

 
WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) W- EUROPE/ E ATLANTIC

N- AMERICA ><EURASIA ><AFRICA

 

   
RAPIDE MELTDOWNS OF GLACIERS OR PERMAICE EASTERN PACIFIC N- AMERICA >< INDO/ AUS ><PAC SEVERAL RECENT SAP EVENTS AND CMES HAVE ACCUMULATED A HIGH POTENTIAL OF (HEAT-) ENERGY WITHIN THE EARTH BODY!  

SEP EFFECTS:

PROTONS: GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (+)

 

SECONDARY REGIONS :

 
HOT SPOTS > VOLCANIC HOT SPOT ACTIVITIES/ MAGMATIC TREMORS (+) EURASIA/ EAST LONGITUDES : 90°- 15 ° E  
PROTONS > PROTON IMPACT > SOUTHERN POLE (- ) EAST AFRICA/ INDIA

N- AMERICA ><EURASIA ><AFRICA

 
EARTHQUAKES > LOW/ ELECTRONS HEATING TECTONIC PLATES (+)

JAPAN- INDONESIA

LONGITUDES : 180 ° - 90° E *REGIONS> see definition below  
ELECTRONS > TEMPERATURE ANOMALITIES NEAR NORTHERN POLE

VOLCANO/ HOT SPOT ACTIVITY >

LOW  
CLIMATE WEATHER >
ATMOSPHERIC HEATING EFFECTS/ ANOMALIES NEAR NORTHERN POLE/ STORMS ETC. ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY >>> HIGHER ( PROTON IMPACT))  
NOTES TO SEP EVENTS::               read also: NASA SCIENCE/ 2005:NASA - A New Kind of Solar Storm  
USUALLY, SEPS begin with an outburst of highly accelerated PROTONS from the Sun. First protons arrive from 15 minutes until, several hours after the event where they move along the geomagnetic field lines towards the Earth`s Southern geomag pole, causing ( depending on the intensity) temporary heat effects on the polar surface, atmosphere and "Earth axis" likely even deep within the Earth core, what ( statistically- see previous blogs to SEP) mostly leads almost synchronously to increased activities on so called hot spot volcanoes , already minutes , resp < 1 hour after the first protons began to impact. Protons storms can last days and accumulate with following SEPs. The integral electron flux will begin to rise/ become effective when proton impact decreases,and the temporary positive component they add to the geomag field begins to attrack electrons from the solar EM field. Electron accumulation can last for weeks (but following NEW SEPS will neutralise, resp just "surpress" electron effectivity) . Electron accumulation can have many effects: typical are: INTENSIVE thunderstorms and tornadoes , but also volcanic eruptions, higher temperatures and rel. droughts in the higher latitudes up to the (mainly NORTH) polar regions what weakens the sea currents , by a lower temperature difference. Heat between equatorals and polar regions then is exchanged more over the ATMOSPHERE and that brings heavy rain to the middle latitudes. Accumulated electrons also can cause induced currents even down to the ground, such as in power grids, but also pipelines and ( ship fires coincident with SEP impacts suggest, that CMEs also especially might induce currents through the salty ocean into SHIPS!!.) The effects of SEPs HOWEVER DIRECTLY depend on the intensity of the SEPs initial proton flux and its duration, and could be forecasted very well .Nevertheless -following SEPs can accumulate higher energies in terms of heating up the Earth core and mantle , that can`t be measured nor predicted but just estimated. In NOAA space weather predictions. mainly provided for satellite and airflight protection , integral > 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be real effective from a value of 10 pfu. upwards (= S1 solar storm) . In geophysical terms protons are effective at each level. . SEPS are the only known type of POTENTIAL DANGEROUS solar events (depending on their intensity) . They simply - as NASA expressed it : "CAN DO EVERYTHING"  
                       

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

DECEMBER

 

DAY:

26

 

     
                       

ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

   

TODAY`s EVENTS

 
                       
GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC      
EPICENTER/ MAP    
highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>    

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.2 - NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G. - 2013-12-26 12:38:31 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE > 6.03 S ; 151.93 E DEPTH > 10 km    

 

             

RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

NONE ( DEFAULT) for current status, check out >
 
   
EARTHQUAKE REGIONS/ FROM 180° E ON WESTWARDS

TECTONICS:

FREQUENCY/ SINCE

REGION*

EPICENTER:

NUMBER

EVENT ( link to ESMC)  
EASTERN PACIFIC/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC. PAC. >< INDO- AUS FREQUENT

"B"

EPICENTER 01 M 5.2 - NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G. - 2013-12-26 12:38:31 UTC  
        EPICENTER 01 M 5.1 - TONGA - 2013-12-26 05:00:57 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report  
 

 

 

                   
NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES
 
This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >
         

 

 

                     
TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS
             
                 
               
               
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
                   
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
INDIAN OCEAN:
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
                   
                     
NOAA/ Hurricane Center NASA/ GOES NOAA usno.navy.mil METEOALARM METEOSAT

reports taken from:

 

 

 

               

HEADLINES

2013

 

 

         

Earthquake- rüport/ 20131227) El Hierro Volcano activity report – Stabilizing deformations (on the exception of La Restinga)

2013-12-27 08:03 UTC Stabilizing deformations (on the exception of La Restinga) New deformation data is in. The new maps (see below and click on it to get a more detailed image) are showing almost everywhere stabilizing indications, both horizontally and vertically. La Restinga lifted another cm and was the only exception. NO more earthquakes listed by IGN since midnight UTC.

(BBC 20131227) Storms return to batter the UK as Met Office warnings put in place

Gales and rain have returned to the UK, causing further disruption to transport and the power network. There are currently around 14-15,000 homes without power in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, the Energy Networks Association said. The Met Office has issued an amber "be prepared" warning of gusts up to 80mph in north Wales and northern England. More than 75 flood warnings have been issued in England, Wales and Scotland, with rain falling on saturated ground. Rail services have been disrupted, while road closures have been reported around the UK because of uprooted trees....read more...

(BBC/ 20131226) Heavy rain kills eight in St Vincent

At least eight people died and dozens were forced out of their homes by heavy rain in the Caribbean islands of St Vincent and the Grenadines. Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves has cut short his holidays and was returning from London, the government said. Landslides and flooding also reportedly killed five people in the neighbouring island of St Lucia. Heavy rain has also been causing destruction in Dominica, also in the eastern Caribbean Sea. The region was expected to remain on rain alert, according to meteorological services....read more...

read also: stluciastar/ 20131235/ Heavy Rains Leave Widespread Devastation On Christmas Eve

(NASA- MODIS/ 20131224) WHEN TWO BECOME ONE

Volcanic activity along the western edge of the Pacific “Ring of Fire” gave rise to a small island in November 2013. Located in the Ogasawara Islands, part of the Volcano Islands arc, the new islet sits about 1,000 kilometers (600 miles) south of Tokyo in waters considered part of Japanese territory. The new island (“Niijima” in Japanese), rose out of the sea during a volcanic eruption first reported on November 20, 2013. The new island is adjacent to Nishino-shima, the summit of a massive submarine volcano that last erupted and expanded in 1973–74. Ongoing eruptions have caused the new island to grow, and the two islands may soon fuse into one....read more...

-
 
            (NASA( MODIS/ 20131224) WHEN TWO BECOME ONE
         
               

 

 

           

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

 

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

   

SUNSPOT NUMBER

96

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

270-287

FLARES >

C

02

 

SOLAR FLUX (SFU)

124.7

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 3.7

 

M

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

02

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

60- 105 nT

CME impact

X

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

/ CLASS/ CONF.*

 

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

IMPACT SIZE:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

faded ( DEC17)

11926

29° - 43 ° W

08° N

   

 

 

 

 

   
rotated out ( DEC17)

11927

       

 

 

 

 

   
rotatiedout ( DEC 25)

11928

                 
 

11929

38° - 52° W

11° S

 

           
 

11930

63° - 77 ° W

10° S

 

           
 

11931

08° - 22° W

14° S

 

DEC 25          
reeemerged (DEC22)

11932

39° - 53° W

04° N

 

           
faded( DEC 22)

11933

64° - 78° W

12° S

 

             
 

11935

21° - 07° E

05° S

 

DEC- 27          
 

11936

47°- 33° E

18° S

 

DEC- 28          

SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

08

 

 

         

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

               
                     

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region          

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**          
*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson          
                       

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

Coronal Holes (CH) are darker regions on the Sun`s surface, where likely denser elements accumulate. Initially it was believed, that the solar gas hull would have there lower density, thus they would represent "holes" in the corona. Some coronal holes make giant magnetic loops reaching until the Eart s orbit, along those then high speed solar wind are kind of pumped through the geomag field back to the solar surface ( RECURRENT SOLAR WIND STREAMS)
 
NUMBER POSITION*: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING MAG &remarks  

CH UNN..

NORTHERN

DECAYING DEC 06 DEC 11

 

 

CH 598

CENTRAL GROWING DEC- 24 DEC 29- 30

 

 
                     
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

           
     

 

             
ABBREVIATIONS> NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT)          
RECURR.= RECURRENT T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL ext= extended UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH            
                     

Today`s USAF report on solar activity >>

                 
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 26/0702Z from Region 1931 (S15W29). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Dec, 28 Dec, 29 Dec).      
             

OBSERVED SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY

                 

SUNSPOTS >

RISING

X- RAY/ ERUPTIONS >

LOW- ACTIVE

           
FLUCTUATIONS IN SOLAR ACTIVITY

currently peaking ( yellow background):

 

             
SHORT PERIOD FLUCTUATION APPR. 1/2 YEAR FLUCTUATION 11 YEAR SUN SPOT CYCLE

60/ 120 YEAR CYCLE? (unknown)

           

OVERLAPSING CYCLES

 

MARCH 2013

 

           
LAST PEAKS ^^
                 
                       
   

 

 

                 
INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX
           
                       

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT : LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:      
PROTON FLUX BACK TO NORMAL

SHORT PEAK ON DEC 25/ after 00 UTC by solar CME

ELECTRON FLUX NORMAL

SHORT PEAK ON DEC 24/ after 10 UTC by solar CME

     
BEGIN/ END: 20131119

ongoing

 

BEGIN/ END:    

 

 

     

 

 

                     

TERRESTRIAL

                 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

                 

 

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment /

GOES satellites are at geostationary orbit and measure influences / impacts on the geomagnetic field  

QUIET

         

UNSETTLED

     

ACTIVE

     

MINOR STORM

     

MAJOR STORM

     

 

     

CME IMPACT

             
       
       
                       
Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>                    
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 286 km/s at 25/2220Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 25/2323Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 25/2357Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (28 Dec, 29 Dec).      
                       

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES      

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT (2)

PAST 24 h

ALERTS AS ISSUED BY NOAA

     
R3

X RAY > M 5 (FLARE ACTIVITY)

NONE

NONE
peaks in solar x ray emissions generally generally flare activities )
 

CME event

TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION NONE NONE
TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS are typical indicators for Coronal Mass Ejections ( CME)
 
 

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

NONE
10 cm RADIO BURSTS are typical indicators for STRONGER ERUPTIONS Coronal Mass ejections ( CME)
 
G 2

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

an index how far the geomagnetic electron flux is disturbed mainly by solar influences such as HSS
 
                     
GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -05 nT/ 2357Z (USAF) NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 06 nT/ 2323Z (USAF) The Bz component is the value, the geomagnetic fiels density fluctuates /shifts in North/ South direction such as during CME impacts  
EFFECTIVE PROTONS NO DATA

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

           
new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report and report that represents the highest N/ S amplitude of that day          
                       
             
   

TODAY`S SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE IMPACTS

           
NOAA ELECTRONS> <NOAA PROTONS      
           
INTEGRAL PARTICLE FLUX:        

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS: (2)

     

> 10 MeV PROTONS(4)

+/- 0.1 pfu.

+/- 0.1 pfu.

> 2 pfu.      
  CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):      

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS:

       

>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS (1)

>40. < 8.000 pfu (-)

>4.000 < 9.000 pfu (-)

Proton infl.        

>2.0 MeV ELECTRONS(1)

4- 40 pfu (-)

10,5- 70 pfu (-)

Proton infl.      
NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA

NO CURRENT DATA

UNKNOWN      
(2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values      
(4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu      

 

 

               

ACTIVE SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS (SEP)

STATUS: ACTIVE SEP          

LATEST GEOEFFECTIVE SEP:

2013 suggested TIME OF SOLAR SEP EVENT: DECEMBER 14- 2013 at      
SEP EVENT/ short event description>      

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:
 

INTEGRAL 10 MeV PROTON FLUX:

unknown 201312126 08 UTC ongoing rising

unknown

   
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  

INTEGRAL> 0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)

 

     

non yet

 

INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)

 

      none yet  
SEP EVENT/ short event description> An X 1.0 LDE flare in AR 11893 peaking on NOV 19 at 10:42 UTC was associated to a major SEP    

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:
 

INTEGRAL 10 MeV PROTON FLUX:

unknown 20131214/ 08 UTC 20131215/ 18 UTC 1.5 pfu.

unknown

ONLY SHORT EVENT  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  

INTEGRAL> 0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)

 

     

non yet

 

INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)

 

      none yet  
PREVIOUS SEP EVENT/ short event description> An X 1.0 LDE flare in AR 11893 peaking on NOV 19 at 10:42 UTC was associated to a major SEP    

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:
 

INTEGRAL 10 MeV PROTON FLUX:

20131119/ 10: 42 UTC 20131119/ 12:00 UTC 20131121/ 00:0= UTC 4 pfu.

27.700 km/second

ONLY SHORT EVENT  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  

INTEGRAL> 0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)

 

     

none yet/ overlapsed by proton events

 

INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)

 

      none yet/ overlapsed by proton events  

 

       
ABBREVIATIONS/ CLASS >
       

SOLAR STORMS (SAPor SEP ) ARE INTENSIVE EMISSIONS OF HIGH ACCELERATED SOLAR PARTICLES ( PROTON/ ELECTRONS)

       

* SAP OR:" SEP" = SOLAR ACCELERATED (OR: ENERGETIC) PARTICLES (PR., EL.)

         

 

 

     
(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS
SOURCES:
 
               

CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL EVENTS

LAST UPDATE

20131226  
 
                 
 
CH High Speed Solar wind Stream (HSS from decaying CH 594) X RAY > M 5 G2 GEOMAGNETIC STORM

EXPECTED CME IMPACT

APPROACHING CMEs :

SEP EVENT

 
        estimated arrival (s)n > 20131209/ 10  

SEP EVENTS>

ACTIVE SEP

> 10 MeV PROTONS > 1.0 pfu > 2 MeV ELECTRONS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 1000 pfu

ELECTRONS ARE ACTIVE ABOVE NORTHERN POL

 
ACUMMULATION OF SUCCEEDING SEPs! 20131226/ 09 UTC   ELECTRON ACCUMULATION: ELECTRON FLUX IS RATHER DENSE , BUT HAS LOWERED ENERGY CAUSED BYLATEST PROTON IMPACTS  
                 
LATEST SIGNIFICANT SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL EVENTS  
     
   
 

LATEST SOLAR EVENT- DECEMBER 24- 25 2013

     

 

update/ December 26: A new SEP was observed on December 26 with first protons impacting after 09 UTC The source of the event is unclear. There were numerous minor solar flares in the morning. The source of the SEP might have been an C class LDE in Region 11936on DEC 26 . B ut these protons also could be slower protons emitted with a major event at the eastern limb on Dec 22, as measured by ACE afterwards. Proton rose above 1 pfu during December 26 . The event is ongoing

update/ December 25: Electron flux rapidly began to drop on December 25 after 00 UTC: This might be an indicator for an upcoming stronger Earth or Seaquake event in the regions as mentioned in my experminental Earthquake forecast below. Alert level was therefor raised after 17 UTC to red with a possibility of Earthquakes with magnitudes higher than M 7.5. (8.0?) in the coming two days

Numerous backside flare and CMEs occured on December 23 and 24. One minorassociated frontside flare had effects on the geomagnetic field on December 25. On Dec 24. solar activity dropped to a kind of low or dead point, as also the geomagnetic field activity did/ does during each soltice (see x- ray graph right side).This year both values ramained rather high- Latest proton events have created adense electron accumulation around the Northern Poles, that causes the temperature anomalie responsible for the weather systems that took place around Christmas time on the northern Hemisohere This phenomenon of lower activities can be observed during both soltices, when he Sun and Earth allignes with the galactical Center of the Milky Way in Sagittarius A. As I could see on SDO images, astronomically calculated events such as New moon dates differ oftenly for several hours to that time when the moon indeed passes by in front of the SDO lense, what is on an geosychronous orbit right between the Earth and the Sun.. The Sun with its giant magnetic field seems to be EXTREMELY SENSITIVE to all kind of cosmical influences expecially gravity forces those accumulate during alignments of the sun with two or more planets or other celestial objects. With this side effect of the Solar magnetism, the Sun is best comparable with a giant amplifier: each weak signal you put in has a stronger impuls and reaction inside( also depending on tha acutual volume of that amplifier) The force of the gravity core in the middle of the milky way however influences and drags all stars planets and moon along until the outreaches of the Milky Way.The gravity connection to the galactic core on the December 24th just a bit compresses the Sun now and activity might strongy resume/ increase soon afterwards, likely already on December 25 and 26 with possible major flares and CMEs.
 
SOLAR EVENT- DECEMBER 19 201.3.Solar Sun Spot activity is likely dropping toone of its annual dead points during the solar soltices . These " dead points" twice a year during the soltices are likely caused by gravity accumulation during the alignment/ conjunction of the Earth, the Sun and the central core of the milky way during both soltices , resp. the giant black hole in Sagittarius (A) which influences all celestial bodies throughout the galaxy. Its nevertheless kind of mysterious, but unresearched yet, as this would mean, that not only the earth has influence on the solar sun spot activity, but the other planets might have as well.
 
ELDER SOLAR EVENT   CURRENTLY GEOEFFECTIVE SEP ( Solar Energetic Particles)    

SOLAR EVENT- DECEMBER 21 2013

very unlikely for christmas time (winter soltice), x ray lavel exceeded C level on December 20, while sun spot number is still below 150 but also rising (differently to previous years, when it mostly dropped almost to zero during winter soltice). Along with fast growing and again decaying coronal holes this pattern is a typical indicator for upcoming major flares or stronger SEP those are likely in the coming days.

SOLAR EVENT- DECEMBER 20 2013

A belt of active regions stretches out about 30 degrees South of the solar equator. while the rest of the solar disc is almost empty. All regions are active on a low C level. Only AR 11931, which just appeared on the eastern solar horizon produced an impressive M 5 + flare on Dec 20 at 00:26 UTC.>>

 

SOLAR EVENT- DECEMBER 14 2013.A major CME impacted on DEC 14 after and caused geomagnetic storming. Proton flux had already sightly increased after the C flare on Dec 12 but rose further (out of an unknown reason- there was no visible associated a eruption ) on Dec 14. Possibly these protons were ejected with the flare on Dec 12 but are very slow. On Dec 15 after 18 UTC- the integral proton flux was back on normal level.

SOLAR EVENT- DECEMBER 12 2013 The tension that built up within the sun during the past week began to unleash with an impressive LDE flare in AR 11917 [near the central meridian at S16E17] that began after 07 UTC on December 12. Early SoHo images show a noticible partial halo CME expanding from that event. As the flare appeared rather strong but measured only C 5 and as latest Goes data indicate, the event might be related to an increase of integral proton flux. (= SEP event) Later GOES data have to be awaited to be sure

 

 

 

               

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

ORANGE BACKGROUND= " LATENCY" = LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE LATENT/ EXPECTABLE , BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER UNLIKELY- WATCH!  
             

ALERT LEVEL

         
DECREASING ELECTRON FLUX. ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES TODAY

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

REMARKS AND/ OR PROBABILITY  

26. DECEMBER 2013
 

M 5.5 - > 7.5 (8.0?)

2- 3 POSSIBLE ( DROPPING ELECTRONS)  
27. DECEMBER 2013  

M 5.5 - > 7.5

2- 3 POSSIBLE ( DROPPING ELECTRONS)  
28 DECEMBER 2013  

M 5.5 -6.5

1-2 DECR./LATENCY (RISING ELECTRONS)  

ABOUT LATENCIES:

   

INFLUENCES:

HIGHTENED ACTIVE ELECTRONS (+) PROTON IMPACT (SEP)- DECREASING  

EFFECTING AS >

INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS(/EARTHQUAKES: HIGHER  

NOTES:* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

(In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 
                 
20131223/ integral electron flux is still kind uf unnormal (comprimated):
 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

background influence:

SEP( DEC 14)

EFFECTIVE CMEs/ int. Nrs. >

CME CLUSTER: 42/13 a-d/ 43- 45/ 13
 

ALERT LEVEL

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS: LATEST CME IMPACT REGIONS/ =EXPECTABLE EVENT REGIONS  

 

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES (- LOWER ) PRIMARY REGIONS IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

BACKGROUND EVENTS:

 
 

INDUCED CURRENTS (+)

NORTH AMERICA/ WEST LONGITUDES: 30° - 150° W/ 150°- 180° W ACCUMULATING SEP EVENTS!  

RADIO BLACKOUTS (PROTON INFLUENCE) LOW

SOUTH AMERICA

PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< NASCA

IMPACT HEMISPHERE:

 
SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS/ TORNADOES (+) CENTRAL AMERICA

ATLANTIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< CARRIBEAN >< COCOS

CENTRAL > SOUTH

 
WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) W- EUROPE/ E ATLANTIC

N- AMERICA ><EURASIA ><AFRICA

 

   
RAPIDE MELTDOWNS OF GLACIERS OR PERMAICE EASTERN PACIFIC N- AMERICA >< INDO/ AUS ><PAC SEVERAL RECENT SAP EVENTS AND CMES HAVE ACCUMULATED A HIGH POTENTIAL OF (HEAT-) ENERGY WITHIN THE EARTH BODY!  

SEP EFFECTS:

PROTONS: GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (-)

 

SECONDARY REGIONS :

 
HOT SPOTS > VOLCANIC HOT SPOT ACTIVITIES/ MAGMATIC TREMORS (-) EURASIA/ EAST LONGITUDES : 90°- 15 ° E  
PROTONS > PROTON IMPACT > SOUTHERN POLE (- ) EAST AFRICA/ INDIA

N- AMERICA ><EURASIA ><AFRICA

 
EARTHQUAKES > LOW/ ELECTRONS HEATING TECTONIC PLATES (+)

JAPAN- INDONESIA

LONGITUDES : 180 ° - 90° E *REGIONS> see definition below  
ELECTRONS > TEMPERATURE ANOMALITIES NEAR NORTHERN POLE

VOLCANO/ HOT SPOT ACTIVITY >

LOW  
CLIMATE WEATHER >
ATMOSPHERIC HEATING EFFECTS/ ANOMALIES NEAR NORTHERN POLE/ STORMS ETC. ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY >>> HIGHER ( PROTON IMPACT))  
NOTES TO SEP EVENTS::               read also: NASA SCIENCE/ 2005:NASA - A New Kind of Solar Storm  
USUALLY, SEPS begin with an outburst of highly accelerated PROTONS from the Sun. First protons arrive from 15 minutes until, several hours after the event where they move along the geomagnetic field lines towards the Earth`s Southern geomag pole, causing ( depending on the intensity) temporary heat effects on the polar surface, atmosphere and "Earth axis" likely even deep within the Earth core, what ( statistically- see previous blogs to SEP) mostly leads almost synchronously to increased activities on so called hot spot volcanoes , already minutes , resp < 1 hour after the first protons began to impact. Protons storms can last days and accumulate with following SEPs. The integral electron flux will begin to rise/ become effective when proton impact decreases,and the temporary positive component they add to the geomag field begins to attrack electrons from the solar EM field. Electron accumulation can last for weeks (but following NEW SEPS will neutralise, resp just "surpress" electron effectivity) . Electron accumulation can have many effects: typical are: INTENSIVE thunderstorms and tornadoes , but also volcanic eruptions, higher temperatures and rel. droughts in the higher latitudes up to the (mainly NORTH) polar regions what weakens the sea currents , by a lower temperature difference. Heat between equatorals and polar regions then is exchanged more over the ATMOSPHERE and that brings heavy rain to the middle latitudes. Accumulated electrons also can cause induced currents even down to the ground, such as in power grids, but also pipelines and ( ship fires coincident with SEP impacts suggest, that CMEs also especially might induce currents through the salty ocean into SHIPS!!.) The effects of SEPs HOWEVER DIRECTLY depend on the intensity of the SEPs initial proton flux and its duration, and could be forecasted very well .Nevertheless -following SEPs can accumulate higher energies in terms of heating up the Earth core and mantle , that can`t be measured nor predicted but just estimated. In NOAA space weather predictions. mainly provided for satellite and airflight protection , integral > 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be real effective from a value of 10 pfu. upwards (= S1 solar storm) . In geophysical terms protons are effective at each level. . SEPS are the only known type of POTENTIAL DANGEROUS solar events (depending on their intensity) . They simply - as NASA expressed it : "CAN DO EVERYTHING"  
                       

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

DECEMBER

 

DAY:

25

 

     
                       

ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

   

TODAY`s EVENTS

 
                       
GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC      
EPICENTER/ MAP    
highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>    

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.2 - FIJI REGION - 2013-12-25 13:04:42 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE > 18.18 S ; 177.89 W DEPTH > 561 km    

 

             

RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

NONE ( DEFAULT) for current status, check out >
 
   
EARTHQUAKE REGIONS/ FROM 180° E ON WESTWARDS

TECTONICS:

FREQUENCY/ SINCE

REGION*

EPICENTER:

NUMBER

EVENT ( link to ESMC)  
REGION INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES/ INDIA EUR.>< / INDO- AUS. FREQUENT

"A"

EPICENTER 01 M 5.0 - PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION - 2013-12-25 00:05:07 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report  
 

 

 

                   
NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES
 
This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >
         
volcano-discovery/gadget

note: this report does NOT necessarely represent all currently global active volcanoes!

   

20131210

report by:

GVP  

 

Smithsonian Institution / USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report

Activity for the week of 18 December-24 December 2013

The Smithsonian page is updated on Wednesdays. Please see the GVP Home Page for news of the latest significant activity.

 

NEW ACTIVITIES/ UPDATES:

ONGOING ACTIVITIES/ UPDATES:

 
Kliuchevskoi Central Kamchatka (Russia) New
Palena Volcanic Group Chile New
Bagana Bougainville (Papua New Guinea) Ongoing
Chirinkotan Kuril Islands (Russia) Ongoing
Dukono Halmahera (Indonesia) Ongoing
Karymsky Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) Ongoing
Kilauea Hawaiian Islands (USA) Ongoing
Manam Papua New Guinea Ongoing
Rabaul New Britian (Papua New Guinea) Ongoing
Sakurajima Kyushu (Japan) Ongoing
Shiveluch Central Kamchatka (Russia) Ongoing
Sinabung Indonesia Ongoing
Ulawun New Britian (Papua New Guinea) Ongoing
 
  The Smithsonian was closed due to a United States federal government shutdown on Oct- 02- 2013. On October 21- 2013, Global Volcanism Program staff could return to work : First new vulcanism update was issued on Oct- 23- 2013  
     

 

 

                     
TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS
             
                 
               
               
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
                   
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
INDIAN OCEAN:
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
                   
                     
NOAA/ Hurricane Center NASA/ GOES NOAA usno.navy.mil