-----------------------

 

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alien- homepage.de- Earth quake statistics- -SUN SPOT ACTIVITY- 11- years solar cycle- last update: FEB- 01- 2013- -07:00 UTC copyright: reserved

background image: Aurora Borealis /COMMONS / wikipedia
open source earthquake forecast project created and provided by: alien-homepage.de-

 

 

2012/ 13 - MAXIMUM OF 11- YEAR SOLAR CYCLE

SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG

ARCHIVE
JANUARY - 2013

 

NASA STEREO BEACON

alien-homepage.de / internal links:

TRANSLATORS
recommended: install Google toolbar with integrated translator!
PROJECT CENTRAL:

ws

PAGES RELATED TO THIS SOLAR/TERRESTRIAL PROJECT>
>HAVE YOU ANY COMMENT?
               
SOHO REALTIME current view on the Sun
SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG/ ARCHIVES:
2013 > JAN                    
2012 >

2011 >
2010 >
NOTE: I WILL APPLY A NEW ARCHIVE SYSTEM IN 2012. CLICK ON THE BUTTON (right) FOR THE NEW ARCHIVE DIRECTORY! >

Note: Due to the high data amount in these monthly archives, I am currently trying to improve this by putting the single archives into collapsible panels.

Also I will split the monthly archive into 4 weekly ones. click on the following tabs to open the collapsible panels. You can report to my blog, if you should still experience problems when loading this page.

click here to open panel with graphics, volcano maps , earthquake statistic JANUARY- 2013
   

True and REAL TIME graphic solution, that makes obvious the coincidences of CME impacts and extraordinary natural phenomenons such as heavier Earthquakes, volcano eruptions, hurricanes. sudden ice meltdowns (floddings) and others

( click on the graphic top to enlarge it):

INTERNAL MAPS: click on the images or links below to get to my large regional maps, where you find all volcanoes around the world with descriptions , webcams and much more such as ancients sites! . Weekly regular activity updates, special earthquakes events with many functions

world volcano map 1.0

world volcano map version 2.0

Europe and Western Asia Africa and Arabic peninsula Central America and Mexico South America- Northern part South America- Southern part Central America and Mexico Northern America Kamchatka peninsula Japan region Indonesia and Philippines Australia and Southern Pacific

- incident graphic will be completed at the end of the month-

SPACECRAFTS:
SoHO
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
SDO /AIA
Solar Dynamics Observatory
STEREO
Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory
GOES
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites

ACE

 
Advanced Composition Explorer

^^ internal Earthquake statistics- with Sun activity curves : green = SUNSPOT NUMBER, Pink= SOLAR FLUX, blue= PLANETARY A INDEX

click here to see some of the paradox observations made during that solar cycle first possibly by observatory sopacecrafts: : CORONAL HOLES THOSE REAPPEAR DURING SEVERAL SOLAR ROTATION PERIODS ON THE SAME HELIOGRAPHIC POSITION

 

 

 

 

click here to open and close collapsible panel with the archived "SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG" JANUARY 22- 31- 2013

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

JANUARY

 

DAY:

31

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 -TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

 

          Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC  

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

 

NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS  
This report will be continued later today!

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS >

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 6.1 - SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS - 2013-01-31 03:33:44 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

10.61 S ; 166.37 E

DEPTH >

10 km

 

CLICK HERE TO SELFCHECK RELATED NOAA TSUNAMI WARNINGS TSUNAMI WARNING ISSED AT : report/ link TSUNAMI WARNING CANCELLED AT: ---

 

 

      note: Tsunami alert here might not be up to date!         EPICENTER/ MAP A MUST SEE!! > Four at Once: Volcano Quartet Erupts on Kamchatka  
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 4.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  

MAIN EARTHQUAKE REGIONS

FREQUENCY/ OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

NUMBER( >M 2) TECTONICS:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 4.0):

 

PACIFIC/MAINLY WEST/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC.

FREQUENT MAP

08

PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.6 - SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS - 2013-01-31 03:57:56 UTC  

REGION CHILE / ARGENTINE ( SA/ NASCA PLATE)

FREQUENT/ OCT- 2012 MAP

15

SOUTH AMERICA >< NASZA M 4.8 - LA RIOJA, ARGENTINA - 2013-01-31 02:45:00 UTC  

REGION INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES/ P.N.G

FREQUENT MAP

03

EURASIA >< / INDO AUSTRALIA M 4.9 - SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA - 2013-01-31 04:10:46 UTC  

KAMCHATKA PENINSULA/ KURIL ISLANDS / JAPAN

FREQUENT MAP

04

N-AMERICA >< EURASIA >< PACIFIC><PHIL. M 4.9 - NEAR S. COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN - 2013-01-31 16:04:48 UTC  

CONTINENTAL EURASIA INCLUDING ASIA

SELDOM MAP

02

EURASIA>< AFRICA >> ARABIA M 4.4 - NORTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA - 2013-01-31 02:29:53 UTC  

SECONDARY EARTHQUAKE REGIONS

   

 

     

HIGHEST MEASURED SINGLE REGIONAL EVENT (EXCEEDING MAGNITUDE M 4.0):

 

MEDITERRANEAN SEA REGION (ALL)

FREQUENT MAP

04

AFRICA >< EURASIA M 4.2 - KERKIRA REGION, GREECE - 2013-01-31 08:04:10 UTC  

CANADA, ALASKA/ (CASCADIAN SZ)

SOMETIMES MAP

04

NORTH-AMERICA ><EXPLORER PLATE M 6.0 SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA- 2013/01/31 09:53:44   

OTHER REGIONS /TREMORS/ SWARMS (> M 3.0)

This section lists events those are rather Earthquake swarms  or volcanic tremors quakes numbered are events > M 2.0 with single events exceeding magnitude M 3.0.  
         

 

GERMANY / NEAR TO KOBLENZ ( EIFEL VOLCANIC FIELD)

SELDOM MAP

00

EURASIA (volcanic)  

GULF OF MEXICO (GOM)/ MAINLY PUERTO RICO REGION

VARYING MAP

02

CARIBBEAN><ATLANTIC >< AFRICA  

WESTERN TURKEY

PERMANENT( higher since 2011) MAP*

09

ARABIA>< EURASIA  

EASTERN TURKEY / Near city of VAN

PERMANENT MAP*

10

ARABIA><EURASIA  

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

JULY 2012

MAP*

00

EURASIA >< ARABIA >< AFRICA  

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012 MAP  

01

SAN ANDREAS FAULT >< JUAN DE FUCA  
           

CANARY AND AZORES ISLANDS REGION

NOVEMBER - 14-2012 MAP

01

N-AMERICA >< AFRICA >< EURASIA  

NORTHERN ITALY

SINCE MAR 2012 MAP*

01

AFRICA >< EURASIA  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*MAP MAY NOT BE UP TO DATE!

 

      ^^REVENTADOR / ECUADOR- webcam ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  
                           

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground. com Tropical Cyclone Felleng JAN- 26- 2013

INDIAN OCEAN

120 MPH ()

52.2° E 

17° S

APPR . 150 KM EAST OF MADAGASKAR SSW TC (3)    
                           
               

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. Eventual media reports will be posted in section "various reports"

< stats

 

This section therefor can only refer to changes in "ALERT LEVELS" as published by GVP. Click on the buttons (right) to find more detailled internal reports: volcano watch (global statistics) and regional volcano maps (all volcanoes worldwide and current activities)

 

 
                     

VARIOUS REPORTS:_

                   
                           

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
                     
   

 

UK PLANS FOR PUBLIC OWNED FORESTS

           

20130131

report by:

bbc.co.uk  

Public opposition to plans to sell off forests forced the government to withdraw its proposals- No sell-off' for public forests

The government has announced that it will not sell off publicly owned forests in England. It says it will create a new public body that will hold in trust the nation's forests for future generations. Environment Secretary Owen Paterson was responding to a report that called the estate a "national asset" that should not be sold off. He also announced that the policy of selling off 15% of the estate to cover costs would be rescinded. Mr Paterson gave few details of the new, independent body that would own, maintain and safeguard the public forest estate except that it would be set up in the longer term. "The new body will have greater independence from Government and greater freedom to manage its resources and maximise its income but with the right safeguards in place to operate for the long-term benefit of people, nature and the economy," he said....read more...

 

                                 
THE CURRENTLY CONTINUING LOW SOLAR ACTIVITY INDICATES THE PROBABILITY OF UPCOMING PROTON ERUPTION / STORM

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

47

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

274-321

FLARES >

C

01

 

CH 552 60° NORTH QUICKLY GROWING JAN- 28 FEB-01- 04  

 

SOLAR FLUX

102

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 1.4

 

M

 

 

CH 551. 15° SOUTH GROWING JAN- 26 JAN 30- 31 RECURR:

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

02

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

80- 125 nT

 

X

 

 

           

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) JAN/ 11 UNKNOWN

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

   

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH
faded ( Jan- 24)

11659

28° - 42° W

04°  N

  JAN- 21

 

 

 

 

 

 

reemerged ( JAN-29)

11661

45° - 59° W

14°  N

  JAN- 27

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (EVOLUTION) :

 

 

11662

23° - 37° W

28°  N

  JAN- 29         ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>>

INCREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
 

11663

10° - 24° W

11°  S

JAN- 30         LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130124

 

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)  
rotating out >

11664

       

 

 

 

  LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20121230

20130108

 
 

11665

50° - 36° E

10°  N

   

 

 

 

 

       

 

 

11666

48° - 34° E

24°  S

           

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
           

 

 

 

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
                  *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson

NEWLY SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

01

 

               

CMEs FROM FILAMENT ERUPTIONS:

CME Nr.:

preliminary fillament eruption after 06: 26 near AR 11666/ filament eruüption from CH 552 after 16: 41 UTC 06:26 UTC GEMINI FEB- 02?   PROTON FLUX NORMAL PROTON STORM : BEGIN: JAN 17 after 00 UTC / END: JAN 18/ 06 UTC  

REMARKS

    ELECTRON FLUX HIGHER SHARP INCREASING(10x) AFTER CME IMPACT BEGIN: JAN 25/ END: ongoing  
                 

 

 

 

SOLAR EVENTS by default: REAL TIME images ( current views on the sun surface) click to enlarge EVENT RELATED INTERPLANETARY & GEOMAGNETIC DATA PLOTS IMAGES OR VIDEO SOURCES:  
        GOES/ ELECTRON FLUX (GM FIELD) ACE/ INTERPLANETARY PROTONS & ELECTRONS GOES/ GEOMAG. PROTON FLUX

 

          more real time images >>   Aurora borealis SoHO / REAL TIM SOLAR WINDS  
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2012 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 31/0434Z from Region 1663 (S09W24). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Feb, 02 Feb, 03 Feb).

(solen.info) A small CME was observed after a filament eruption which began at approximately 05:41 UTC on January 31 to the east of AR 11666. Another CME was observed off the northeast limb later in the day after a frontsided filament near AR S2206 erupted.

 

 

                 
EARTH DIRECTED CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME):

this section will always appear, when a significant CME event was noticed and data have to be updated. You find more information about recent CME events in " today`s preliminary report"

 

(date)

CMEs at:

06:26 UTC

ARRIVAL:

 

POLARITY: ALPHA (PROTONS) BETA UNKNOWN  

 

GOES / X- RAY (nuclear activity/ solar flares)  

TRACKING NR.:

07/13

  20130131/ 11:18 UTC 20130131/ 07:26 UTC 20130131/ 16:41 UTC    

 

ACTIVE REGIONS

--- no images ( blackout)    

 

Earth directed?

HALO  

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT  

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

filament eruption

---  
TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS (1) STEREO-"Behind" (2) SoHO/ LASCO C 3 (3) SDO /AIA-comp

(4) SDO /HMI

  (5) SDO /HMI

 

Abbreviations >

LDE=

Long Duration Event

 

 

 

 

 

 

try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note,, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130125/

int. CME Nr. >>

06/13

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

30°- 150° W

INTERFERS WITH PREVIOUS CMEs

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

ACTIVE ELECTRONS

SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS

ALL AMERICAS

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

AMERICAS>< PACIFIC

 

LATENCY / END

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

N- US WEST COAST

SOUTH

AM.><JUAN DE FUCA>< PAC

 

31 - JANUARY - 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

EAST & CENTR. PACIFIC

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

EUR.><PACIF. >< AMER.

 

M 5.5 - 7.0 (potential=: > 7.5)

1-2 (possible?)

 

INDUCED CURRENTS

ATLANTIC (ALL)

AFR. >< AMERICAS><EUR.

 

01 -FEBRUARY - 2013

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5 - 7.5 (potential=: > 7.5)

2-3(

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

15° E- 180° W- 150° E

15° E- 180° W- 150° E

 

02 -FEBRUARY - 2013

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME EUROPE & AFRICA/WEST) EURASIA >< AFR><INDO/AUS

 

M 5.5 - 7.5 (potential=: > 7.5)

2-3(prelim.)

 

HIGH SUN SPOT NUMBER/ EFFECTS (REGIONAL): HOT & DRY WESTERN PACIFIC *REGIONS> see definition below PACIFIC >< INDO-AUS ><

 

 

LATE CME EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES* CURRENT DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: HIGH (LATENCY END)    

 

*BY TECTONICS COOLING DOWN = RELATED TECTONIC PLATES ARE EXPECTED  TO BE HEATED BY CME IMPACT

 

geomagnetic field density still on elavated levels- further quakes> M 6.0 likely

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/Geomagnetometer

GOES 3- days- SAT- ENVIRONMENT

 

INFLUENCES> MULTIPLE CME ARRIVALS  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS/ LATENCY

 

 

 

EFFECTING AS > PLATES COOLING/ CONTRACTING) SHOCKWAVES

 

QUIET

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

SOURCES/ REPORTS /LINKS:

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 

S. RADIATION STORM:

NONE NONE REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

MAJOR STORM   RADIO BLACKOUTS NONE NONE REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA  

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE NONE  

internal remarks:

 

SOLAR STORMS:

SOLAR STORMS ARE INTENSIVE PARTICLE EMISSIONS

 

 

 

> 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS

> 10.000 pfu

 

INTERNAL REPORT /GOES  DATA  

 

2 MeV ELECTRONS

100 > pfu < 1000

 

INTERNAL REPORT /GOES  DATA

 

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM NONE NONE INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 344 km/s at 31/2011Z. Total IMF reached 6.5 nT at 31/2045Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4.4 nT at 31/2023Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 367 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (01 Feb) increasing to quiet to unsettled levels on day two (02 Feb) as a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) becomes geoeffective. A further increase to quiet to active levels is expected on day three (03 Feb) due to continued CH HSS effects and a glancing blow from an earth-directed CME..

 

                       

 

     

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

JANUARY

 

DAY:

30

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 be patient...this day`s update is just under procedure.-...

 


Video streaming by Ustream

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 -TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

 

          Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC  

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

 

NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS  
This report will be continued later today!

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS >

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 6.8 - ATACAMA, CHILE - 2013-01-30 20:15:44 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

28.06 S ; 70.84 W

DEPTH >

46 km

 

CLICK HERE TO SELFCHECK RELATED NOAA TSUNAMI WARNINGS TSUNAMI WARNING ISSED AT : report/ link TSUNAMI WARNING CANCELLED AT: ---

 

 

      note: Tsunami alert here might not be up to date!         EPICENTER/ MAP Curiosity Finds Calcium-Rich Deposits - January 18, 2013- NASAjpl press conference also intruducing latest rover images  
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 4.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  

MAIN EARTHQUAKE REGIONS

FREQUENCY/ OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

NUMBER( >M 2) TECTONICS:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 4.0):

 

PACIFIC/MAINLY WEST/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC.

FREQUENT MAP

02

PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA M 6.1 - SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS - 2013-01-30 23:03:43 UTC  

AFTERQUAKES / ATACAMA/CHILE

FREQUENT/ OCT- 2012 MAP

08

SOUTH AMERICA >< NASZA M 4.8 - ATACAMA, CHILE - 2013-01-30 20:40:39 UTC  

REGION PERU- BOLIVIA

FREQUENT MAP

01

PACIFIC >< SOUTH AMERICA >< NASZA M 4.7 - NEAR COAST OF SOUTHERN PERU - 2013-01-30 23:34:30 UTC  

REGION INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES/ P.N.G

FREQUENT MAP

05

EURASIA >< / INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.4 - PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION - 2013-01-30 02:32:18 UTC  

CONTINENTAL EURASIA INCLUDING ASIA

SELDOM MAP

04

EURASIA>< AFRICA >> ARABIA M 5.3 - XIZANG-QINGHAI BORDER REGION - 2013-01-30 09:27:06 UTC  

AFRICA- MAINLY RED SEA REGION & INDIAN OCEAN

SELDOM MAP

01

AFRICA ><SOUTH AMERICA>< ANTARCTICA M 4.9 - SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE - 2013-01-30 13:25:36 UTC  

SECONDARY EARTHQUAKE REGIONS

   

 

     

HIGHEST MEASURED SINGLE REGIONAL EVENT (EXCEEDING MAGNITUDE M 4.0):

 

MEDITERRANEAN SEA REGION (ALL)

FREQUENT MAP

12

AFRICA >< EURASIA M 4.2 - GREECE - 2013-01-30 04:27:25 UTC  

CANADA, ALASKA/ (CASCADIAN SZ)

SOMETIMES MAP

08

NORTH-AMERICA ><EXPLORER PLATE M 5.3.- OFF THE COAST OF OREGON- 2013/01/30 03:14:28   

OTHER REGIONS /TREMORS/ SWARMS (> M 3.0)

This section lists events those are rather Earthquake swarms  or volcanic tremors quakes numbered are events > M 2.0 with single events exceeding magnitude M 3.0.  
         

 

GERMANY / NEAR TO KOBLENZ ( EIFEL VOLCANIC FIELD)

SELDOM MAP

00

EURASIA (volcanic)  

GULF OF MEXICO (GOM)/ MAINLY PUERTO RICO REGION

VARYING MAP

02

CARIBBEAN><ATLANTIC >< AFRICA  

WESTERN TURKEY

PERMANENT( higher since 2011) MAP*

05

ARABIA>< EURASIA  

EASTERN TURKEY / Near city of VAN

PERMANENT MAP*

09

ARABIA><EURASIA  

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

JULY 2012

MAP*

05

EURASIA >< ARABIA >< AFRICA  

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012 MAP  

03

SAN ANDREAS FAULT >< JUAN DE FUCA  
           

CANARY AND AZORES ISLANDS REGION

NOVEMBER - 14-2012 MAP

00

N-AMERICA >< AFRICA >< EURASIA  

NORTHERN ITALY

SINCE MAR 2012 MAP*

04

AFRICA >< EURASIA  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*MAP MAY NOT BE UP TO DATE!

 

      NEW ZEALAND/ WHITE ISLAND VOLCANO/ CRATER RIMcam) ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground. com Tropical Cyclone Felleng JAN- 26- 2013

INDIAN OCEAN

120 MPH (+)

53.8° E

14.7° S

APPR . 200 KM EAST OF MADAGASKAR SW TC (2)    
                           
               

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. Eventual media reports will be posted in section "various reports"

< stats

 

This section therefor can only refer to changes in "ALERT LEVELS" as published by GVP. Click on the buttons (right) to find more detailled internal reports: volcano watch (global statistics) and regional volcano maps (all volcanoes worldwide and current activities)

 

 
volcano-discovery/gadget

note: this report does NOT necessarely represent all currently global active volcanoes!

      2012 report by: GVP  

 

Smithsonian / USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report

23 January-29 January 2013

New Activity/Unrest: | Etna, Sicily (Italy) | Karkar, Northeast of New Guinea (SW Pacific) | Rabaul, New Britain | Reventador, Ecuador | Sangay, Ecuador | Stromboli, Aeolian Islands (Italy) | White Island, New Zealand 
Ongoing Activity: | Batu Tara, Komba Island (Indonesia) | Chirpoi, Kuril Islands (Russia) | Copahue, Central Chile-Argentina border | Karymsky, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) | Kilauea, Hawaii (USA) |Kizimen, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) | Kliuchevskoi, Central Kamchatka (Russia) | Manam, Northeast of New Guinea (SW Pacific) | Paluweh, Lesser Sunda Islands (Indonesia) | Sakura-jima, Kyushu | Santa María, Guatemala | Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia) | Tolbachik, Central Kamchatka (Russia)

This page is updated on Wednesdays. Please see the GVP Home Page for news of the latest significant activity.

 

 
REGION:
NAME/USGS datalink:
GEOGRAPHIC POSITION: LAT. / LONG.
VOLCANO NUMBER
VOLCANO TYPE
WEBCAM DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL MAP: LOCAL SURVEY

 

P.N.G. KARKAR- 4°38'55"S/ 145°57'50"E 0501-03= Stratovolcano Hi* KARKAR none not refered by GVP   Australia VAAC MODIS

 

Wikipedia:

                   
           

 

report by:

GVP

 

Based on analyses of satellite imagery and wind data analyses, the Darwin VAAC reported that an ash plume from Karkar rose to an altitude of 4.3 km (14,000 ft) a.s.l. and drifted less than 40 km NE.

 

                               
REGION:
NAME/USGS datalink:
GEOGRAPHIC POSITION: LAT. / LONG.
VOLCANO NUMBER
VOLCANO TYPE
WEBCAM DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL MAP: LOCAL SURVEY

 

KERMADEC ISLANDS AOBA 15°24'0"S/ 167°50'0"E 0507-03= Shield volcano Hi* AOBA
 

JANUARY- 30- 2013

 

Australia

geonet.org.nz

 

Wikipedia:

                   
           

20130212

report by:

GVP

 

According to the Vanuatu Geohazards Observatory, Ambanga villagers reported that minor activity at Aoba began in December 2012. The OMI instrument detected strong gas emissions on 18 and 25 January; the emissions continued at a lower level through 7 February. Field observations by the Geohazards team during 30 January-2 February confirmed that activity had significantly changed. Data retrieved from a monitoring station also confirmed ongoing activity. The Vanuatu Volcano Alert Level (VVAL) remained at 1 (on a scale of 0-4).

 

                               
                     

VARIOUS REPORTS:_

                   
                           

Tropical Cyclone Felleng

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

20130130

report by:

http://uk.reuters.com

 

Mozambique floods displace nearly 150,000

MAPUTO | Wed Jan 30, 2013 4:05pm GMT (Reuters) - Widespread flooding in southern Mozambique has displaced 143,000 people and aid agencies are struggling to get assistance to communities underwater for nearly a week, officials said on Wednesday. The death toll from the flooding in the lower Limpopo river now stands at 80, Mozambican officials said, while aid groups said supplies of drugs and malaria test kits were running low, raising concerns about the spread of disease. In the hardest-hit town of Chokwe, 140 km (90 miles) north of Maputo, only six out of 23 medical facilities were working and there were no ambulances, aid agency Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) said....read more

read also: Mozambique military on flood duty

Mozambique's military has been called in to help tackle severe flooding that has killed 48 people and is likely to spread to the country's central and northern regions, officials say. The armed forces have begun helping with clean-up operations in the devastated southern town of Chokwe, which has borne the brunt of the flooding caused by heavy rains. 'We can confirm the army is helping support the affected people,' said Benjamin Chabualo, spokesperson for the Ministry of Defence told AFP. Soldiers have also been involved in rescue efforts and the navy has ferried people by boat to reach areas isolated by flooding. According to UN figures around 250,000 people have been affected by the floods and 146,000 people are being housed in temporary shelters. Water levels have begun to recede in the south of the country, but the situation remains critical, and the centre and north are expected to be hit by fresh rain. ...read more (sky news- australia including video source)

<< NASA / MODIS/ CLOSE-UP OF FLOODING IN MOZAMBIQUE

 

US COLD FRONT MOVING  EASTERN TOWARDS EUROPE

         

20130130

report by:

www.nasa.gov  

Satellite Image Shows Eastern U.S. Severe Weather System

A powerful cold front moving from the central United States to the East Coast is wiping out spring-like temperatures and replacing them with winter-time temperatures with powerful storms in between. An image released from NASA using data from NOAA's GOES-13 satellite provides a stunning look at the powerful system that brings a return to winter weather in its wake. On Jan. 30 at 1825 UTC (1:25 p.m. EST), NOAA's GOES-13 satellite captured an image of clouds associated with the strong cold front. The visible GOES-13 image shows a line of clouds that stretch from Canada to the U.S. Gulf Coast and contain powerful thunderstorms with the potential to be severe. The front is moving east to the Atlantic Ocean...read more...

 

                                 
THE CURRENTLY CONTINUING LOW SOLAR ACTIVITY INDICATES THE PROBABILITY OF UPCOMING PROTON ERUPTION / STORM

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

45

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

285-356

FLARES >

C

 

 

CH 552 60° NORTH QUICKLY GROWING JAN- 28 FEB- 04?  

 

SOLAR FLUX

96.6

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 1.0

 

M

 

 

CH 551. 15° SOUTH GROWING JAN- 26 FEB- 02  

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

01

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

80- 110 nT

rising

X

 

 

           

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) JAN/ 11 UNKNOWN

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

   

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH
faded ( Jan- 24)

11659

28° - 42° W

04°  N

  JAN- 21

 

 

 

 

 

 

reemerged ( JAN-29)

11661

26° - 40° W

14°  N

  JAN- 27

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (EVOLUTION) :

 

 

11662

11° - 25° W

28°  N

  JAN- 29         ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>>

INCREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
 

11663

03° E- 11° W

11°  S

JAN- 30         LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130124

 

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)  
rotating out >

11664

82° - 96° W

30°  N

   

 

 

 

  LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20121230

20130108

 
 

11665

64° - 50° E

10°  N

   

 

 

 

 

       

 

 

11666

62° - 48° E

24°  S

           

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
           

 

 

 

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
                  *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson

NEWLY SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

04

 

               

CMEs FROM FILAMENT ERUPTIONS:

CME Nr.:

            PROTON FLUX NORMAL PROTON STORM : BEGIN: JAN 17 after 00 UTC / END: JAN 18/ 06 UTC  

REMARKS

    ELECTRON FLUX HIGHER SHARP INCREASING(10x) AFTER CME IMPACT BEGIN: JAN 25/ END: ongoing  
                 

 

 

 

SOLAR EVENTS by default: REAL TIME images ( current views on the sun surface) click to enlarge EVENT RELATED INTERPLANETARY & GEOMAGNETIC DATA PLOTS IMAGES OR VIDEO SOURCES:  
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2012 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels on days one, two, and three (31 Jan, 01 Feb, 02 Feb).

 

 

                 
EARTH DIRECTED CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME):

this section will always appear, when a significant CME event was noticed and data have to be updated. You find more information about recent CME events in " today`s preliminary report"

 

(date)

CMEs at:

NONE

ARRIVAL:

--

POLARITY: ALPHA (PROTONS) BETA UNKNOWN  

 

GOES / X- RAY (nuclear activity/ solar flares)  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note,, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130125/

int. CME Nr. >>

06/13

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

30°- 150° W

INTERFERS WITH PREVIOUS CMEs

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

ACTIVE ELECTRONS

SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS

ALL AMERICAS

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

AMERICAS>< PACIFIC

 

LATENCY END

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

N- US WEST COAST

SOUTH

AM.><JUAN DE FUCA>< PAC

 

 

30 - JANUARY - 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

EAST & CENTR. PACIFIC

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

EUR.><PACIF. >< AMER.

 

M 5.5 - 7.0 (potential=: > 7.5)

1-2

 

INDUCED CURRENTS

ATLANTIC (ALL)

AFR. >< AMERICAS><EUR.

 

31 - JANUARY - 2013

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5 - 7.0 (potential=: > 7.5)

1-2 (possible?)

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

15° E- 180° W- 150° E

15° E- 180° W- 150° E

 

01 -FEBRUARY - 2013

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME EUROPE & AFRICA/WEST) EURASIA >< AFR><INDO/AUS

 

M 5.5 - 7.5 (potential=: > 7.5)

2-3(prelim.)

 

HIGH SUN SPOT NUMBER/ EFFECTS (REGIONAL): HOT & DRY WESTERN PACIFIC *REGIONS> see definition below PACIFIC >< INDO-AUS ><

 

 

LATE CME EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES* CURRENT DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: LATENCY(ACTIVE ELECTRONS)    

 

*BY TECTONICS COOLING DOWN = RELATED TECTONIC PLATES ARE EXPECTED  TO BE HEATED BY CME IMPACT

 

geomagnetic field density still on elavated levels- further quakes> M 6.0 likely

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/Geomagnetometer

GOES 3- days- SAT- ENVIRONMENT

 

INFLUENCES> MULTIPLE CME ARRIVALS  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS/ LATENCY

 

 

 

EFFECTING AS > HEATING UP TECTONIC PLATES EQ- LATENCY-  (UNTIL JAN- 28- 30 ?)

 

QUIET

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

SOURCES/ REPORTS /LINKS:

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 

S. RADIATION STORM:

NONE NONE REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

MAJOR STORM   RADIO BLACKOUTS NONE NONE REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA  

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE NONE  

internal remarks:

 

SOLAR STORMS:

SOLAR STORMS ARE INTENSIVE PARTICLE EMISSIONS

 

 

 

> 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS

> 10.000 pfu

 

INTERNAL REPORT /GOES  DATA  

 

2 MeV ELECTRONS

100 > pfu < 1000

 

INTERNAL REPORT /GOES  DATA

 

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM NONE NONE INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

.IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 372 km/s at 30/0002Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 171 pfu.

 

                       

 

     

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

JANUARY

 

DAY:

29

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 -TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

 

          Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC  

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

 

NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS  
This report will be continued later today!

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS >

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.0 - SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS - 2013-01-29 19:30:33 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

11.14 S ; 165.41 E

DEPTH >

30 km

 

CLICK HERE TO SELFCHECK RELATED NOAA TSUNAMI WARNINGS TSUNAMI WARNING ISSED AT : report/ link TSUNAMI WARNING CANCELLED AT: ---

 

 

      note: Tsunami alert here might not be up to date!         EPICENTER/ MAP ^NASA/ MODIS/ 20130129/ TROPICAL CYCLONE FELLENG  
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 4.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  

MAIN EARTHQUAKE REGIONS

FREQUENCY/ OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

NUMBER( >M 2) TECTONICS:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 4.0):

 

PACIFIC/MAINLY WEST/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC.

FREQUENT MAP

03

PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA M 4.6 - SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS - 2013-01-29 09:03:20 UTC  

REGION CHILE / ARGENTINE ( SA/ NASCA PLATE)

FREQUENT/ OCT- 2012 MAP

07

SOUTH AMERICA >< NASZA M 4.4 - OFFSHORE ATACAMA, CHILE - 2013-01-29 20:17:58 UTC  

REGION PERU- BOLIVIA

FREQUENT MAP

03

PACIFIC >< SOUTH AMERICA >< NASZA M 4.7 - SOUTHERN PERU - 2013-01-29 03:31:23 UTC  

REGION INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES/ P.N.G

FREQUENT MAP

02

EURASIA >< / INDO AUSTRALIA M 4.9 - SULAWESI, INDONESIA - 2013-01-29 03:16:38 UTC  

KAMCHATKA PENINSULA/ KURIL ISLANDS / JAPAN

FREQUENT MAP

01

N-AMERICA >< EURASIA >< PACIFIC><PHIL. M 4.8 - HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION - 2013-01-29 13:17:21 UTC  

EURASIA/ AFTERQUAKES/ EASTERN KAZAKHSTAN

SELDOM MAP

03

EURASIA>< AFRICA >> ARABIA M 4.7 - EASTERN KAZAKHSTAN - 2013-01-29 08:57:55 UTC  

AFRICA- MAINLY RED SEA REGION & INDIAN OCEAN

SELDOM MAP

01

EURASIA>< AFRICA >> ARABIA<>INDO AUS M 5.3 - MID-INDIAN RIDGE - 2013-01-29 21:40:22 UTC  

SECONDARY EARTHQUAKE REGIONS

   

 

     

HIGHEST MEASURED SINGLE REGIONAL EVENT (EXCEEDING MAGNITUDE M 4.0):

 

PANAMERICA

FREQUENT SINCE 2012 MAP

01

N & SOUTH AMERICA >< COCOS M 4.7 - NEAR COAST OF NICARAGUA - 2013-01-29 00:56:43 UTC  

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

JULY 2012

MAP

07

EURASIA >< ARABIA >< AFRICA M 4.4 - DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE - 2013-01-29 01:48:56 UTC  

OTHER REGIONS /TREMORS/ SWARMS (> M 3.0)

This section lists events those are rather Earthquake swarms  or volcanic tremors quakes numbered are events > M 2.0 with single events exceeding magnitude M 3.0.  

MEDITERRANEAN SEA REGION (ALL)

FREQUENT MAP

10

AFRICA >< EURASIA

 

GERMANY / NEAR TO KOBLENZ ( EIFEL VOLCANIC FIELD)

SELDOM MAP

01(M 2.2)

EURASIA (volcanic)  

GULF OF MEXICO (GOM)/ MAINLY PUERTO RICO REGION

VARYING MAP

08

CARIBBEAN><ATLANTIC >< AFRICA  

WESTERN TURKEY

PERMANENT( higher since 2011) MAP*

15

ARABIA>< EURASIA  

EASTERN TURKEY / Near city of VAN

PERMANENT MAP*

09

ARABIA><EURASIA  
           

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012 MAP  

03

SAN ANDREAS FAULT >< JUAN DE FUCA  

CANADA, ALASKA/ (CASCADIAN SZ)

SOMETIMES MAP*

08

NORTH-AMERICA ><EXPLORER PLATE  

CANARY AND AZORES ISLANDS REGION

NOVEMBER - 14-2012 MAP

00

N-AMERICA >< AFRICA >< EURASIA  

NORTHERN ITALY

SINCE MAR 2012 MAP

06(M 3.5)

AFRICA >< EURASIA  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*MAP MAY NOT BE UP TO DATE!

 

      KIZIMEN VOLCANO/ KAMCHATKA PENINSULA/ RUSSIA/cam ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground. com Tropical Cyclone Felleng JAN- 26- 2013

INDIAN OCEAN

75 MPH (+)

56.5° E

13.5° S

APPR . 200 KM NORTHEAST OF MADAGASKAR W TC (1)    
                           
               

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. Eventual media reports will be posted in section "various reports"

< stats

 

This section therefor can only refer to changes in "ALERT LEVELS" as published by GVP. Click on the buttons (right) to find more detailled internal reports: volcano watch (global statistics) and regional volcano maps (all volcanoes worldwide and current activities)

 

 
REGION:
NAME/USGS datalink:
GEOGRAPHIC POSITION: LAT. / LONG.
VOLCANO NUMBER
VOLCANO TYPE
WEBCAM DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL MAP: LOCAL SURVEY

 

Indonesia PALUWEH 8°19'0"S/ 121°42'30"E 0604-15= Stratovolcano Hi* PALUWEH
--

JANUARY- 29- 2013

 

Indonesia

CVGHM

MODIS

 

Wikipedia:

                   
           

20130129

report by:

GVP

 

Based on analyses of satellite imagery and wind data, the Darwin VAAC reported that on 29 January ash plumes from Paluweh rose to an altitude of 1.8 km (6,000 ft) a.s.l. and drifted less than 20 km ENE.

 

                               
REGION:
NAME/USGS datalink:
GEOGRAPHIC POSITION: LAT. / LONG.
VOLCANO NUMBER
VOLCANO TYPE
WEBCAM DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL MAP: LOCAL SURVEY  
MEXICO COLIMA 19°30'50"N/ 103°37'0"W 1401-04= Stratovolcano Hi* COLIMA

JANUARY- 29- 2013

 

CENTRAM

CENAPRED

 

Wikipedia:

                 

 

           

20130205

report by:

GVP  

Based on analyses of satellite imagery, the Washington VAAC reported that on 29 January an ash plume from Colima drifted 55 km NE at an uncertain altitude. A thermal anomaly was also detected.

According to news articles, residents up to 20 km away reported a loud noise, shaking ground, and rattling windows at about 0400 on 29 January. Colima ejected incandescent material and an ash plume that rose 3 km. Ash fell in several communities.

 

                             

 

                     

VARIOUS REPORTS:_

                   
                           
                       
   

 

                                 
THE CURRENTLY CONTINUING LOW SOLAR ACTIVITY INDICATES THE PROBABILITY OF UPCOMING PROTON ERUPTION / STORM

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

63

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

295-370

FLARES >

C

 

 

CH UNN. 60° NORTH NEWLY EMERGED JAN- 28 FEB- 04?  

 

SOLAR FLUX

95.4

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 1.0

 

M

 

 

CH UNN. 30° SOUTH CLOSED JAN- 25 JAN 27- 28  

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

02

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

70- 105

 

X

 

 

CH UNN. 15° SOUTH SMALLGROWING JAN- 26 FEB- 02  

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) JAN/ 11 UNKNOWN

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

   

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH
faded ( Jan- 24)

11659

28° - 42° W

04°  N

  JAN- 21

 

 

 

 

 

 

faded ( JAN-28)

11661

07° - 21° W

14°  N

  JAN- 27

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (EVOLUTION) :

 

 

11662

02° E- 12° W

28°  N

  JAN- 29         ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>>

INCREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
 

11663

17° - 03° E

11°  S

JAN- 30         LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130124

 

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)  
 

11664

65° - 79° W

30°  N

   

 

 

 

  LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20121230

20130108

 
           

 

 

 

 

       

 

                   

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
           

 

 

 

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
                  *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson

NEWLY SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

04

 

               

CMEs FROM FILAMENT ERUPTIONS:

CME Nr.:

            PROTON FLUX NORMAL PROTON STORM : BEGIN: JAN 17 after 00 UTC / END: JAN 18/ 06 UTC  

REMARKS

    ELECTRON FLUX HIGHER SHARP INCREASING(10x) AFTER CME IMPACT BEGIN: JAN 25/ END: ongoing  
                 

 

 

 

SOLAR EVENTS MINOR EVENT: weak filament eruption near AR 11663/ CH 551 on JAN 29/ after 4:14 UTC EVENT RELATED INTERPLANETARY & GEOMAGNETIC DATA PLOTS IMAGES OR VIDEO SOURCES:  
20130129/ 09:25 UTC 20130129/ 12:18 UTC 20130129/ 04: 41 UTC CH and AR on: 20130129 GOES/ ELECTRON FLUX (GM FIELD) ACE/ INTERPLANETARY PROTONS & ELECTRONS GOES / X- RAY FLUX on 20130129

 

 

 

 
 
 
(1) STEREO-"Behind" (2) SoHO/ LASCO C 3 (3) SDO /AIA-comp STAR MAP by solen.info  
          more real time images >>   Aurora borealis SoHO / REAL TIM SOLAR WINDS  
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2012 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Jan, 31 Jan, 01 Feb).

 

 

                 
EARTH DIRECTED CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME):

this section will always appear, when a significant CME event was noticed and data have to be updated. You find more information about recent CME events in " today`s preliminary report"

 

(date)

CMEs at:

NONE

ARRIVAL:

JAN- 13

POLARITY: ALPHA (PROTONS) BETA UNKNOWN  

 

ACE/ INTERPLANETARY PROTONS & ELECTRONS  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note,, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130125/

int. CME Nr. >>

06/13

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

30°- 150° W

INTERFERS WITH PREVIOUS CMEs

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

ACTIVE ELECTRONS

SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS

ALL AMERICAS

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

AMERICAS>< PACIFIC

 

ACTIVE ELECTRONS

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

N- US WEST COAST

SOUTH

AM.><JUAN DE FUCA>< PAC

 

 

29 - JANUARY - 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

EAST & CENTR. PACIFIC

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

EUR.><PACIF. >< AMER.

 

M 5.5 - 6.5 (potential=: > 7.5)

1-2

 

INDUCED CURRENTS

ATLANTIC (ALL)

AFR. >< AMERICAS><EUR.

 

30 - JANUARY - 2013

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5 - 6.5 (potential=: > 7.5)

1-2

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

15° E- 180° W- 150° E

15° E- 180° W- 150° E

 

31 - JANUARY - 2013

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME EUROPE & AFRICA/WEST) EURASIA >< AFR><INDO/AUS

 

M 5.5 - 7.0 (potential=: > 7.5)

2-3(prelim.)

 

HIGH SUN SPOT NUMBER/ EFFECTS (REGIONAL): HOT & DRY WESTERN PACIFIC *REGIONS> see definition below PACIFIC >< INDO-AUS ><

 

 

LATE CME EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES* CURRENT DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: LATENCY(ACTIVE ELECTRONS)    

 

*BY TECTONICS COOLING DOWN = RELATED TECTONIC PLATES ARE EXPECTED  TO BE HEATED BY CME IMPACT

 

geomagnetic field density still on elavated levels- further quakes> M 6.0 likely

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/Geomagnetometer

GOES 3- days- SAT- ENVIRONMENT

 

INFLUENCES> MULTIPLE CME ARRIVALS  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS/ LATENCY

 

 

 

EFFECTING AS > HEATING UP TECTONIC PLATES EQ- LATENCY-  (UNTIL JAN- 28- 30 ?)

 

QUIET

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

SOURCES/ REPORTS /LINKS:

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 

S. RADIATION STORM:

NONE NONE REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

MAJOR STORM   RADIO BLACKOUTS NONE NONE REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA  

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE NONE  

internal remarks:

 

SOLAR STORMS:

SOLAR STORMS ARE INTENSIVE PARTICLE EMISSIONS

 

 

 

> 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS

> 10.000 pfu

 

INTERNAL REPORT /GOES  DATA  

 

2 MeV ELECTRONS

100 > pfu < 1000

 

INTERNAL REPORT /GOES  DATA

 

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM NONE NONE INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 423 km/s at 28/2340Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 130 pfu..

 

                       

 

     

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

JANUARY

 

DAY:

28

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 -TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

 

                EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC  

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA

NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS  
This report will be continued later today!

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS >

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 6.1 - EASTERN KAZAKHSTAN - 2013-01-28 16:38:53 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

42.63 N ; 79.81 E

DEPTH >

10 km

 

CLICK HERE TO SELFCHECK RELATED NOAA TSUNAMI WARNINGS TSUNAMI WARNING ISSED AT : report/ link TSUNAMI WARNING CANCELLED AT: ---

 

 

      note: Tsunami alert here might not be up to date!         EPICENTER/ MAP NEW PLANS FOR OIL EXPLOITATIONS THREATENS ECUADOR`S RAINFOREST  
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 4.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  

MAIN EARTHQUAKE REGIONS

FREQUENCY/ OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

NUMBER( >M 2) TECTONICS:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 4.0):

 

PACIFIC/MAINLY WEST/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC.

FREQUENT MAP

02

PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.0 - SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS - 2013-01-28 21:24:37 UTC  

REGION INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES/ P.N.G

FREQUENT MAP

03

EURASIA >< / INDO AUSTRALIA M 4.7 - HALMAHERA, INDONESIA - 2013-01-28 02:24:00 UTC  

KAMCHATKA PENINSULA/ KURIL ISLANDS / JAPAN

FREQUENT MAP

02

N-AMERICA >< EURASIA >< PACIFIC><PHIL. M 4.7 - OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN - 2013-01-28 20:29:14 UTC  

CONTINENTAL EURASIA / AFTERQUAKES

SELDOM MAP

09

EURASIA>< AFRICA >> ARABIA M 4.8 - EASTERN KAZAKHSTAN - 2013-01-28 17:31:45 UTC  

SECONDARY EARTHQUAKE REGIONS

   

 

     

HIGHEST MEASURED SINGLE REGIONAL EVENT (EXCEEDING MAGNITUDE M 4.0):

 

PANAMERICA

FREQUENT SINCE 2012 MAP

01

N & SOUTH AMERICA >< COCOS M 4.8 - PANAMA-COSTA RICA BORDER REGION - 2013-01-28 20:20:53 UTC  

MEDITERRANEAN SEA REGION (ALL)

FREQUENT MAP

 

AFRICA >< EURASIA    

ARABIC PLATE -SYRIA, IRAQ ETC. INCL. IRAN

FREQUENT MAP

01

AFRICA >< EURASIA><INDO-AUS M 4.3 - NORTHWESTERN IRAN - 2013-01-28 19:38:18 UTC  

OTHER REGIONS /TREMORS/ SWARMS (> M 3.0)

This section lists events those are rather Earthquake swarms  or volcanic tremors quakes numbered are events > M 2.0 with single events exceeding magnitude M 3.0.  

MEDITERRANEAN SEA REGION (ALL)

FREQUENT MAP

16

AFRICA >< EURASIA  

REGION CHILE / ARGENTINE ( SA/ NASCA PLATE)

FREQUENT/ OCT- 2012 MAP

11

SOUTH AMERICA >< NASZA  

GULF OF MEXICO (GOM)/ MAINLY PUERTO RICO REGION

VARYING MAP

00

CARIBBEAN><ATLANTIC >< AFRICA  

WESTERN TURKEY

PERMANENT( higher since 2011) MAP*

19

ARABIA>< EURASIA  

EASTERN TURKEY / Near city of VAN

PERMANENT MAP*

09

ARABIA><EURASIA  

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

JULY 2012

MAP*

08

EURASIA >< ARABIA >< AFRICA  

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012 MAP  

01

SAN ANDREAS FAULT >< JUAN DE FUCA  

CANADA, ALASKA/ (CASCADIAN SZ)

SOMETIMES MAP*

03

NORTH-AMERICA ><EXPLORER PLATE  

CANARY AND AZORES ISLANDS REGION

NOVEMBER - 14-2012 MAP

00

N-AMERICA >< AFRICA >< EURASIA  

NORTHERN ITALY

SINCE MAR 2012 MAP*

04

AFRICA >< EURASIA  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*MAP MAY NOT BE UP TO DATE!

 

      ^webcam NEW ACTIVITIES- ETNA (Italy) 20130128 ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground. com Tropical Cyclone Thirteen JAN- 26- 2013

INDIAN OCEAN

40 MPH ()

63.9° E 

13.9° N

APPR. 1000 KM NORTHEAST OF MADAGASKAR W TD    
wunderground. com

Tropical Cyclone Garry

JAN- 20- 2013

WESTERN PACIFIC

50 MPH (-)

159° W 

21° S

ABOVE COOK ISLAND

SSE

TC    
                           
               

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. Eventual media reports will be posted in section "various reports"

< stats

 

This section therefor can only refer to changes in "ALERT LEVELS" as published by GVP. Click on the buttons (right) to find more detailled internal reports: volcano watch (global statistics) and regional volcano maps (all volcanoes worldwide and current activities)

 

 
REGION:
NAME/USGS datalink:
GEOGRAPHIC POSITION: LAT. / LONG.
VOLCANO NUMBER
VOLCANO TYPE
WEBCAM DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL MAP: LOCAL SURVEY

 

Australia MANAM- pos 4°4'48"S/ 145°2'14"E 0501-02= Stratovolcano Hi* MANAM
NONE

JANUARY- 28- 2013

 

Australia

VAAC

 

Wikipedia:

                   
           

20130129

report by:

GVP

 

Based on observations of satellite imagery and wind data analyses, the Darwin VAAC reported that an ash plume from Manam rose to an altitude of 3 km (10,000 ft) a.s.l. on 28 January and drifted 22 km E. The next day an ash plume drifted 93 km NE, and then later another ash plume drifted 55 km NE at an altitude of 4.3 km (14,000 ft) a.s.l.

 

                               
                     

VARIOUS REPORTS:_

                   
                           

AUSTRALIA` S EXTREME CLIMATE RECORDS

            20130118

report by:

.bbc.co.uk  

Australia battles floods in two states

Australia is battling flooding in two states, as rescue teams worked to evacuate people from inundated areas. In Queensland, more than 1,000 people were plucked to safety in the city of Bundaberg as the Burnett River burst its banks, flooding 2,000 homes. In New South Wales there are concerns that the Clarence River, at a record high, could flood the city of Grafton. Tropical Cyclone Oswald, which triggered the flooding, is now heading out to sea south of Sydney. Four people are now known to have died in the severe weather, after a toddler who was hit by a falling tree in Brisbane died on Monday. It comes two years after severe flooding in southern Queensland, including in the state capital Brisbane, that left 35 people dead and tens of thousands of homes flooded...In Bundaberg the Burnett River was at 9.475m and rising slowly, the Bureau of Meteorology said in a statement, with a peak up to 9.6m expected later in the day - more than 1.5m above the December 2010 flood level. "Those flood levels will be one of the highest levels recorded for the whole of the Bundaberg and Burnett region," said Queensland Police Minister Jack Dempsey. ...read more...

 

                                 
THE CURRENTLY CONTINUING LOW SOLAR ACTIVITY INDICATES THE PROBABILITY OF UPCOMING PROTON ERUPTION / STORM

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

52

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

352-418

FLARES >

C

01

 

CH UNN. SOUTH CLOSING JAN- 16 JAN 22  

 

SOLAR FLUX

97.6

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 1.4

 

M

 

 

CH UNN. 30° SOUTH SMALL / CLOSING JAN- 25 JAN 27- 28  

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

04

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

75- 105 nT

rising

X

 

 

CH UNN. 15° SOUTH SMALL JAN- 26 FEB- 02  

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) JAN/ 11 UNKNOWN

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

DECREASING  

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH
faded ( Jan- 24)

11659

28° - 42° W

04°  N

  JAN- 21

 

 

 

 

 

 

         

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (EVOLUTION) :

 

 

11661

07° - 21° W

14°  N

  JAN- 27         ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>>

INCREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
 

11662

14° - 00° E

28°  N

  JAN- 29         LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130124

 

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)  
 

11662

32° - 18° E

28°  N

  JAN- 30

 

 

 

  LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20121230

20130108

 
N

11663

32° - 18° E

11°  S

  JAN- 30

 

 

 

 

       

 

NEWLY EMEERGED

11664

51° - 65° E

30°  N

   

 

 

 

 

       

 

                   

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
           

 

 

 

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
                  *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson

NEWLY SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

04

 

               

CMEs FROM FILAMENT ERUPTIONS:

CME Nr.:

            PROTON FLUX NORMAL PROTON STORM : BEGIN: JAN 17 after 00 UTC / END: JAN 18/ 06 UTC  

REMARKS

    ELECTRON FLUX HIGHER SHARP INCREASING(10x) AFTER CME IMPACT BEGIN: JAN 25/ END: ongoing  
                 

 

 

 

SOLAR EVENTS           EVENT RELATED INTERPLANETARY & GEOMAGNETIC DATA PLOTS IMAGES OR VIDEO SOURCES:  
                 
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2012 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 28/1834Z from Region 1660 (N13, L=065) which is about a day beyond West limb. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan, 31 Jan).

 

 

                 
EARTH DIRECTED CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME):

this section will always appear, when a significant CME event was noticed and data have to be updated. You find more information about recent CME events in " today`s preliminary report"

 

(date)

CMEs at:

NONE

ARRIVAL:

 

POLARITY: ALPHA (PROTONS) BETA UNKNOWN  

standard image:

GOES / X- RAY (nuclear activity/ solar flares)  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note,, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130125/

int. CME Nr. >>

06/13

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

30°- 150° W

INTERFERS WITH PREVIOUS CMEs

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

ELECTRON INCREASE

SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS

ALL AMERICAS

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

AMERICAS>< PACIFIC

 

ELECTRON INCREASE

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

N- US WEST COAST

SOUTH

AM.><JUAN DE FUCA>< PAC

 

 

28 - JANUARY - 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

EAST & CENTR. PACIFIC

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

EUR.><PACIF. >< AMER.

 

M 5.5 - 6.5 (potential: > 7.5!)

1-2 (LATENCY)

 

INDUCED CURRENTS

ATLANTIC (ALL)

AFR. >< AMERICAS><EUR.

 

29 - JANUARY - 2013

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5 - 6.5(potential: > 7.5!)

1-2 (LATENCY)

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

15° E- 180° W- 150° E

15° E- 180° W- 150° E

 

30 - JANUARY - 2013

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME EUROPE & AFRICA/WEST) EURASIA >< AFR><INDO/AUS

 

M 5.5 - >7..5  (rising?)

2-3 (prelim.)

 

HIGH SUN SPOT NUMBER/ EFFECTS (REGIONAL): HOT & DRY WESTERN PACIFIC *REGIONS> see definition below PACIFIC >< INDO-AUS ><

 

 

LATE CME EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES* CURRENT DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: LATENCY(ACTIVE ELECTRONS)    

 

*BY TECTONICS COOLING DOWN = RELATED TECTONIC PLATES ARE EXPECTED  TO BE HEATED BY CME IMPACT

 

geomagnetic field density still on elavated levels- further quakes> M 6.0 likely

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/Geomagnetometer

GOES 3- days- SAT- ENVIRONMENT

 

INFLUENCES> MULTIPLE CME ARRIVALS  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS/ LATENCY

 

 

 

EFFECTING AS > HEATING UP TECTONIC PLATES EQ- LATENCY-  (UNTIL JAN- 28- 30 ?)

 

QUIET

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

SOURCES/ REPORTS /LINKS:

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 

S. RADIATION STORM:

NONE NONE REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

MAJOR STORM   RADIO BLACKOUTS NONE NONE REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA  

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE NONE  

internal remarks:

 

SOLAR STORMS:

DECREASING

SOLAR STORMS ARE INTENSIVE PARTICLE EMISSIONS

 

 

 

> 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS

> 10.000 pfu

 

INTERNAL REPORT /GOES  DATA  

 

2 MeV ELECTRONS

100 > pfu < 1000

 

INTERNAL REPORT /GOES  DATA

 

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM NONE NONE INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 445 km/s at 28/0310Z and was slowly decreasing throughout the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (29 Jan, 30 Jan, 31 Jan).

 

                       

 

     

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

JANUARY

 

DAY:

27

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 -TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

 

                EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC  

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS

 

This report will be continued later today!

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS >

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.7 - TONGA - 2013-01-27 09:59:27 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

16.13 S ; 173.16 W

DEPTH >

10 km

 

CLICK HERE TO SELFCHECK RELATED NOAA TSUNAMI WARNINGS TSUNAMI WARNING ISSED AT : report/ link TSUNAMI WARNING CANCELLED AT: ---  

 

      note: Tsunamireport mihere might not be up to date!         EPICENTER/ MAP ^Jan- 27- 2013: Powerful Arctic storm ‘bombing out’ in North Atlantic  
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 4.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  

MAIN EARTHQUAKE REGIONS

FREQUENCY/ OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

NUMBER( >M 2) TECTONICS:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 4.0):

 

PACIFIC/MAINLY WEST/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC.

FREQUENT MAP

02

PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA M 4.9 - SAVU SEA - 2013-01-27 00:27:20 UTC  

REGION CHILE / ARGENTINE ( ANTARCTIC REGION)

FREQUENT/ OCT- 2012 MAP

02

S- AMERICA >< NASZA ><ANTARCTICA M 5.2 - SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE - 2013-01-27 19:32:43 UTC  

REGION INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES/ P.N.G

FREQUENT MAP

02

EURASIA >< / INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.0 - SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA - 2013-01-27 04:05:44 UTC  

KAMCHATKA PENINSULA/ KURIL ISLANDS / JAPAN

FREQUENT MAP

03

N-AMERICA >< EURASIA >< PACIFIC><PHIL. M 5.2 - RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN - 2013-01-27 20:57:35 UTC  

CONTINENTAL EURASIA INCLUDING ASIA

SELDOM MAP

03

EURASIA>< AFRICA >> ARABIA M 3.8 - RUSSIA-XINJIANG BORDER REGION - 2013-01-27 16:24:56 UTC  

YELLOWSTONE SUPERVOLCANO /WYOMING/ USA

AUGUST- 28- 2012 MAP MAP

01

HOTSPOT VOLCANO M 4.4 - WYOMING - 2013-01-27 19:47:06 UTC  

SECONDARY EARTHQUAKE REGIONS

   

 

     

HIGHEST MEASURED SINGLE REGIONAL EVENT (EXCEEDING MAGNITUDE M 4.0):

 

PANAMERICA

FREQUENT SINCE 2012 MAP

01

N & SOUTH AMERICA >< COCOS M 4.5 - GUATEMALA - 2013-01-27 20:27:23 UTC  

OTHER REGIONS /TREMORS/ SWARMS (> M 3.0)

This section lists events those are rather Earthquake swarms  or volcanic tremors quakes numbered are events > M 2.0 with single events exceeding magnitude M 3.0.  

MEDITERRANEAN SEA REGION (ALL)

FREQUENT MAP

08

AFRICA >< EURASIA  

GULF OF MEXICO (GOM)/ MAINLY PUERTO RICO REGION

VARYING MAP

01

CARIBBEAN><ATLANTIC >< AFRICA  

WESTERN TURKEY

PERMANENT( higher since 2011) MAP*

09

ARABIA>< EURASIA  

EASTERN TURKEY / Near city of VAN

PERMANENT MAP*

11

ARABIA><EURASIA  

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

JULY 2012

MAP*

01

EURASIA >< ARABIA >< AFRICA  

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012 MAP  

03

SAN ANDREAS FAULT >< JUAN DE FUCA  

CANADA, ALASKA/ (CASCADIAN SZ)

SOMETIMES MAP*

05

NORTH-AMERICA ><EXPLORER PLATE  

CANARY AND AZORES ISLANDS REGION

NOVEMBER - 14-2012 MAP

00

N-AMERICA >< AFRICA >< EURASIA  

NORTHERN ITALY

SINCE MAR 2012 MAP*

03

AFRICA >< EURASIA  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*MAP MAY NOT BE UP TO DATE!

 

      ^YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK/ WYOMING- webcams ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  
         

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground. com Tropical Cyclone Thirteen JAN- 26- 2013

INDIAN OCEAN

40 MPH ()

63.9° E 

13.9° N

APPR. 1000 KM NORTHEAST OF MADAGASKAR W TC    
wunderground. com

Tropical Cyclone Garry

JAN- 20- 2013

WESTERN PACIFIC

50 MPH (-)

159° W 

21° S

ABOVE COOK ISLAND

SSE

TC    
                           
               

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. Eventual media reports will be posted in section "various reports"

< stats

 

This section therefor can only refer to changes in "ALERT LEVELS" as published by GVP. Click on the buttons (right) to find more detailled internal reports: volcano watch (global statistics) and regional volcano maps (all volcanoes worldwide and current activities)

 

 
REGION:
NAME/USGS datalink:
GEOGRAPHIC POSITION: LAT. / LONG.
VOLCANO NUMBER
VOLCANO TYPE
WEBCAM DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL MAP: LOCAL SURVEY  
Indonesia

BATU TARA

7°47'30"S/ 123°34'45"E

0604-26=

Stratovolcano

Hi*

BATU TARA

none

JANUARY- 27- 2013

 

Indonesia

VAAC

 

 

Wikipedia:

                 

 

           

20130129

report by:

GVP  

Based on analyses of satellite imagery and wind data, the Darwin Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) reported that during 27-28 January ash plumes from Batu Tara rose to altitudes of 1.8-2.1 km (6,000-7,000 ft) a.s.l. and drifted 37 km NE and E.

 

                             

 

                     

VARIOUS REPORTS:_

                   
                           

POWERFUL STORM FORMING IN NORTHERN ATLANTIC

         

20130127

report by:

.weather.com  

Atlantic Storm Stronger Than Sandy?

Meteorologists use central pressure as a proxy for measuring the strength of both "extratropical cyclones" (those with cold/warm/occluded fronts) and "tropical cyclones" (hurricanes, tropical storms, tropical depressions). The lowest surface pressure as measured by reconnaissance aircraft in Superstorm Sandy's lifecycle was 940 millibars. The North Atlantic storm we reference below will likely bottom out with a lower central pressure! Fortunately, its worst impacts will stay offshore of Iceland, Ireland and Scotland.read more...

< map (clickon image to to enlarge it)and storm foreecast by: opc.ncep.noaa: 386 AGNT40 KWNM 280641 MIMATN MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC 140 AM EST MON 28 JAN 2013 .FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT .WEATHER FOR NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N. OVER THE SHORT TERM...THE NEW 00Z MDLS GNRLY AGREE THAT A WARM FRONT WL MOVE NE OFF THE NRN MID ATLC COAST LATE TODAY WITH A STRENGTHENING SWLY GRADIENT DVLPG IN ITS IMMED VCNTY (PRIMARILY WITH 20-25 KT WINDS). THEN TONITE INTO EARLY TUE THE 00Z MDLS ALL FCST A DVLPG SFC LOW TO RACE SE ALONG THE FRONT ACRS THE NT1 AND XTRM NE MOST NT2 WTRS. BASED ON THE SHEARED UPR LVL SPRT... BELIEVE THE 00Z NAM FCST SFCS LOW IS TOO STRONG. BUT EVEN THE WEAKER 00Z GFS FCSTS SM GALE FORCE ASCD BL WINDS DVLPG S OF THE LOW ACRS THE BALT CNYN TO THE HAGUE LINE WTRS. BUT FOR NOW PLAN ON COMPROMISING BTWN THE STRONGER 00Z GFS AND WEAKER 00Z GEM/UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM AND AS A RESULT WL CONT TO HOLD OFF ON FCSTG ANY ASCD GALE WRNGS. SO OTHERWISE NO SIG SHORT TERM CHNGS ARE PLANNED TO THE PREV OFSHR FCST PACKAGE THRU TUE NITE. IN THE LONG RANGE...THE 00Z MDLS AGREE THAT THE NEXT SIG WEATHER FEATURE WL BE A STRONG COLD FROPA WED NITE INTO THU ACRS THE CSTL/OFSHR WTRS.

...read more.

 

                                 
THE CURRENTLY CONTINUING LOW SOLAR ACTIVITY INDICATES THE PROBABILITY OF UPCOMING PROTON ERUPTION / STORM

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

60

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

380-508

FLARES >

C

 

 

CH UNN. (1) SOUTH CLOSING JAN- 16 JAN 22 RECURR.

 

SOLAR FLUX

97.7

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 1.4

 

M

 

 

CH UNN. 30° SOUTH SMALL / CLOSING JAN- 25 JAN 27- 28  

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

06

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

45- 105 nT

CH HSS

X

 

 

CH UNN. 15° SOUTH SMALL JAN- 26 FEB- 02  

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) JAN/ 11 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

MEDIUM CH- UNN. (1)

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH
faded ( Jan- 24)

11659

28° - 42° W

04°  N

  JAN- 21

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11660

80° - 94° W

12°  N

 

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (EVOLUTION) :

 

 

11661

08° E - 06° W

14°  N

  JAN- 27         ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>>

INCREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
 

11662

40° - 26° E

28°  N

  JAN- 28         LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130124

 

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)  
 

11662

27° - 13° E

28°  N

  JAN- 28

 

 

 

  LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20121230

20130108

 
NEWLY EMEERGED

11663

47° - 33° E

11°  S

  JAN- 30

 

 

 

 

       

 

           

 

 

 

 

       

 

                   

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
           

 

 

 

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
                  *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson

NEWLY SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

05

 

               

CMEs FROM FILAMENT ERUPTIONS:

CME Nr.:

            PROTON FLUX NORMAL PROTON STORM : BEGIN: JAN 17 after 00 UTC / END: JAN 18/ 06 UTC  

REMARKS

    ELECTRON FLUX HIGHER SHARP INCREASING(10x) AFTER CME IMPACT BEGIN: JAN 25/ END: ongoing  
                 

 

 

 

SOLAR EVENTS           EVENT RELATED INTERPLANETARY & GEOMAGNETIC DATA PLOTS IMAGES OR VIDEO SOURCES:  
        GOES/ ELECTRON FLUX (GM FIELD) ACE/ INTERPLANETARY PROTON FLUX) GOES/ GEOMAG. PROTON FLUX

 

                 
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2012 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Jan, 29 Jan, 30 Jan).

 

 

                 
CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)- SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA

this section will always appear, when a significant CME event was noticed and data have to be updated. You find more information about recent CME events in " today`s preliminary report"

 

(date)

CMEs at:

NONE

ARRIVAL:

 

POLARITY: ALPHA (PROTONS) BETA UNKNOWN  

standard image:

GOES / X- RAY (nuclear activity/ solar flares)  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note,, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130125/

int. CME Nr. >>

06/13

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

30°- 150° W

INTERFERS WITH PREVIOUS CMEs

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

ELECTRON INCREASE

SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS

ALL AMERICAS

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

AMERICAS>< PACIFIC

 

ELECTRON INCREASE

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

N- US WEST COAST

SOUTH

AM.><JUAN DE FUCA>< PAC

 

 

27 - JANUARY - 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

EAST & CENTR. PACIFIC

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

EUR.><PACIF. >< AMER.

 

M 5.5 - 6.5 (potential: > 7.5!)

1-2 (LATENCY)

 

INDUCED CURRENTS

ATLANTIC (ALL)

AFR. >< AMERICAS><EUR.

 

28 - JANUARY - 2013

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5 - 6.5(potential: > 7.5!)

1-2 (LATENCY)

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

15° E- 180° W- 150° E

15° E- 180° W- 150° E

 

29 - JANUARY - 2013

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME EUROPE & AFRICA/WEST) EURASIA >< AFR><INDO/AUS

 

M 5.5 - >7..5  (rising?)

2-3 (prelim.)

 

HIGH SUN SPOT NUMBER/ EFFECTS (REGIONAL): HOT & DRY WESTERN PACIFIC *REGIONS> see definition below PACIFIC >< INDO-AUS ><

 

 

LATE CME EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES* CURRENT DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: LATENCY BY PROTON INFLUENCES    

 

*BY TECTONICS COOLING DOWN = RELATED TECTONIC PLATES ARE EXPECTED  TO BE HEATED BY CME IMPACT

 

geomagnetic field density still on elavated levels- further quakes> M 6.0 likely

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/Geomagnetometer

GOES 3- days- SAT- ENVIRONMENT

 

INFLUENCES> MULTIPLE CME ARRIVALS  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS/ LATENCY

 

 

 

EFFECTING AS > HEATING UP TECTONIC PLATES EQ- LATENCY-  (UNTIL JAN- 28?)

 

QUIET

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

SOURCES/ REPORTS /LINKS:

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 

S. RADIATION STORM:

NONE NONE REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

MAJOR STORM   RADIO BLACKOUTS NONE NONE REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA  

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE NONE  

internal remarks:

 

SOLAR STORMS:

DECREASING

SOLAR STORMS ARE INTENSIVE PARTICLE EMISSIONS

 

 

 

> 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS

> 10.000 pfu

 

INTERNAL REPORT /GOES  DATA  

 

2 MeV ELECTRONS

< 100 pfu

 

INTERNAL REPORT /GOES  DATA

 

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM NONE NONE INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft reached a peak of 590 km/s at 27/0533Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (28 Jan, 29 Jan, 30 Jan)..

 

                       

 

     

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

JANUARY

 

DAY:

26

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 -TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

 

                EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC  

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

This report will be continued later today!

 

    ^^ NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS  

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS >

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.1 - PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION - 2013-01-26 17:31:13 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

5.50 N ; 127.10 E

DEPTH >

118 km

 

CLICK HERE TO SELFCHECK RELATED NOAA TSUNAMI WARNINGS TSUNAMI WARNING ISSED AT : report/ link TSUNAMI WARNING CANCELLED AT: ---

 

 

      note: Tsunami alert here might not be up to date!         EPICENTER/ MAP P.N.G.-Tavurvur Eruption - live footage(posted: JAN- 20- 2013)  
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 4.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  

MAIN EARTHQUAKE REGIONS

FREQUENCY/ OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

NUMBER( >M 2) TECTONICS:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 4.0):

 

PACIFIC/MAINLY WEST/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC.

FREQUENT MAP

01

PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.0 - NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G. - 2013-01-26 11:01:42 UTC  

REGION INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES/ P.N.G

FREQUENT MAP

02

EURASIA >< / INDO AUSTRALIA M 4.5 - SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA - 2013-01-26 14:13:23 UTC  

KAMCHATKA PENINSULA/ KURIL ISLANDS / JAPAN

FREQUENT MAP

02

N-AMERICA >< EURASIA >< PACIFIC><PHIL. M 4.1 - OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA - 2013-01-26 18:20:52 UTC  

CONTINENTAL EURASIA: RUSSIA-XINJIANG

SELDOM MAP

02

EURASIA>< AFRICA >> ARABIA M 4.5 - RUSSIA-XINJIANG BORDER REGION - 2013-01-26 04:04:13 UTC  

SECONDARY EARTHQUAKE REGIONS

   

 

     

HIGHEST MEASURED SINGLE REGIONAL EVENT (EXCEEDING MAGNITUDE M 4.0):

 

PANAMERICA

FREQUENT SINCE 2012 MAP

01

N & SOUTH AMERICA >< COCOS M 4.5 - OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR - 2013-01-26 09:36:41 UTC  

MEDITERRANEAN SEA REGION (ALL)

FREQUENT MAP

08

AFRICA >< EURASIA M 4.3 - CRETE, GREECE - 2013-01-26 05:16:01 UTC  

ARABIC PLATE -SYRIA, IRAQ ETC. INCL. IRAN

FREQUENT MAP

01

AFRICA >< EURASIA><INDO-AUS M 4.6 - NORTHWESTERN IRAN - 2013-01-26 15:10:50 UTC  

OTHER REGIONS /TREMORS/ SWARMS (> M 3.0)

This section lists events those are rather Earthquake swarms  or volcanic tremors quakes numbered are events > M 2.0 with single events exceeding magnitude M 3.0.  

GULF OF MEXICO (GOM)/ MAINLY PUERTO RICO REGION

VARYING MAP

01

CARIBBEAN><ATLANTIC >< AFRICA

 

 

WESTERN TURKEY

PERMANENT( higher since 2011) MAP*

06

ARABIA>< EURASIA  

EASTERN TURKEY / Near city of VAN

PERMANENT MAP*

13

ARABIA><EURASIA  

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

JULY 2012

MAP*

01

EURASIA >< ARABIA >< AFRICA  

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012 MAP  

04

SAN ANDREAS FAULT >< JUAN DE FUCA  

CANADA, ALASKA/ (CASCADIAN SZ)

SOMETIMES MAP*

06

NORTH-AMERICA ><EXPLORER PLATE  

CANARY AND AZORES ISLANDS REGION

NOVEMBER - 14-2012 MAP

00

N-AMERICA >< AFRICA >< EURASIA  

NORTHERN ITALY

SINCE MAR 2012 MAP

08

AFRICA >< EURASIA  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*MAP MAY NOT BE UP TO DATE!

 

      > webcam PITON DE LA FOURNAISSE/ E- AFRICA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground. com

Tropical Cyclone Garry

JAN- 20- 2013

WESTERN PACIFIC

65 MPH (-)

159.7° W 

18.7° S

APPR.120 KM NNW OF COOK ISLAND

SSE

TC    
                           
               

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. Eventual media reports will be posted in section "various reports"

< stats

 

This section therefor can only refer to changes in "ALERT LEVELS" as published by GVP. Click on the buttons (right) to find more detailled internal reports: volcano watch (global statistics) and regional volcano maps (all volcanoes worldwide and current activities)

 

 
                     

VARIOUS REPORTS:_

                   
                           
                20130127

report by:

earthquake-report.com  
 

January 24, 2013 volcano activity Hybrid earthquakes (red spikes in seismic record)(evidence for fluid movement) have continued to increase beneath White Island volcano (New Zealand) overnight, prompting GNS to upgrade the status of unrest at the volcano to “orange” level. I am hopeful that seismicity will slowly intensify right up to the initial explosion, affording everyone (scientists, airlines, tourists/sightseers) the maximum amount of time to prepare for an eruption, which is looking more probable now.

Earthquake activity within Mount Rainier volcano (WA) (station RCS) has been slightly up the past few days. The apparent increase in activity is only partially real though, as the seismic monitoring network has recently been upgraded. The upgrade affords better event detection capability and thus allows events with magnitudes well below M1.0 to now be reliably located at the volcano. ...read more...

Increased volcanic activity worldwide in late January 2013

 

                                 
THE CURRENTLY CONTINUING LOW SOLAR ACTIVITY INDICATES THE PROBABILITY OF UPCOMING PROTON ERUPTION / STORM

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

solen.info. updates were not available on Jan- 19

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

55

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

479

FLARES >

C

 

 

CH UNN. SOUTH DECAYING JAN- 16 JAN 22  

 

SOLAR FLUX

99

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 1.4

 

M

 

 

CH UNN. SOUTH SMALL / GROWING JAN- 25 JAN 27- 28  

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

18

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

20- 123 nT

under CME influence

X

 

 

           

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) JAN/ 11 UNKNOWN

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

LOW  

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH
rotating out >

11658

86° - 100° W

12°  S

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

faded ( Jan- 24)

11659

28° - 42° W

04°  N

  JAN- 21

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (EVOLUTION) :

 

 

11660

70° - 84° W

12°  N

          ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>>

LOW

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
 

11661

20° - 06° E

14°  N

  JAN- 27         LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130121

 

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)  
 

11662

40° - 26° E

28°  N

  JAN- 28

 

 

 

  LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20121230

20130108

 
           

 

 

 

 

       

 

           

 

 

 

 

       

 

                   

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
           

 

 

 

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
                  *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson

NEWLY SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

05

 

               

CMEs FROM FILAMENT ERUPTIONS:

CME Nr.:

            EVENT RELATED INTERPLANETARY (ACE) & GEOMAG (GOES) DATA PLOTS AND8 OR VIDEO SOURCES)  

REMARKS

    PROTON FLUX AT NORMAL LEVELS LAST KNOWN EVENT >> PROTON STORM : BEGIN: JAN 17 after 00 UTC / END: JAN 18/ 06 UTC  
                 

 

JAN- 20: ELECTRON FLUX INCREASED(10x) AFTER PROTON STORM

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2012 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Jan, 28 Jan, 29 Jan).

 

 

                 
CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)- SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA

this section will always appear, when a significant CME event was noticed and data have to be updated. You find more information about recent CME events in " today`s preliminary report"

 

(date)

CMEs at:

NONE

ARRIVAL:

JAN- 13

POLARITY: ALPHA (PROTONS) BETA UNKNOWN  

standard image:

GOES / X- RAY (nuclear activity/ solar flares)  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note,, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130125/

int. CME Nr. >>

06/13

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

30°- 150° W

INTERFERS WITH PREVIOUS CMEs

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

ELECTRON INCREASE

SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS

ALL AMERICAS

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

AMERICAS>< PACIFIC

 

NEW CME ARRIVAL

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

N- US WEST COAST

SOUTH

AM.><JUAN DE FUCA>< PAC

 

 

26 - JANUARY - 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

EAST & CENTR. PACIFIC

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

EUR.><PACIF. >< AMER.

 

M 5.5 - 6.5 (potential: > 7.5!)

1-2 (LATENCY)

 

INDUCED CURRENTS

ATLANTIC (ALL)

AFR. >< AMERICAS><EUR.

 

27 - JANUARY - 2013

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5 - 6.5(potential: > 7.5!)

1-2 (LATENCY)

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

15° E- 180° W- 150° E

15° E- 180° W- 150° E

 

28 - JANUARY - 2013

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME EUROPE & AFRICA/WEST) EURASIA >< AFR><INDO/AUS

 

M 5.5 - >7..5  (rising?)

2-3 (prelim.)

 

HIGH SUN SPOT NUMBER/ EFFECTS (REGIONAL): HOT & DRY WESTERN PACIFIC *REGIONS> see definition below PACIFIC >< INDO-AUS ><

 

 

LATE CME EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES* CURRENT DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: LATENCY BY PROTON INFLUENCES    

 

*BY TECTONICS COOLING DOWN = RELATED TECTONIC PLATES ARE EXPECTED  TO BE HEATED BY CME IMPACT

 

geomagnetic field density still on elavated levels- further quakes> M 6.0 likely

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/Geomagnetometer

GOES 3- days- SAT- ENVIRONMENT

 

INFLUENCES> MULTIPLE CME ARRIVALS  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS/ LATENCY

 

 

 

EFFECTING AS > HEATING UP TECTONIC PLATES EQ- LATENCY-  (UNTIL JAN- 28?)

 

QUIET

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

SOURCES/ REPORTS /LINKS:

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 

S. RADIATION STORM:

NONE NONE REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

MAJOR STORM   RADIO BLACKOUTS NONE NONE REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA  

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE NONE  

internal remarks:

 

SOLAR STORMS:

DECREASING

SOLAR STORMS ARE INTENSIVE PARTICLE EMISSIONS

 

 

 

> 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS

> 1000 < 10.000 pfu

 

INTERNAL REPORT /GOES  DATA  

 

2 MeV ELECTRONS

< 100 pfu

 

INTERNAL REPORT /GOES  DATA

 

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM NONE NONE INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft peaked at 549 km/s at 26/1352Z. Total IMF reached 15.9 nT at 26/1422Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12.7 nT at 25/2254Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV reached a peak flux of 118 pfu at geosynchronous orbit. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels for day one (27 Jan) decreasing to quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder of the period (28 Jan, 29 Jan)..

 

                       

 

     

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

JANUARY

 

DAY:

25

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 -TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

 

                EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC  

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

  NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS  
This section will be updated later today!

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS >

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.3 - MADAGASCAR - 2013-01-25 23:37:01 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

23.60 S ; 43.59 E

DEPTH >

10 km (est.)

 

CLICK HERE TO SELFCHECK RELATED NOAA TSUNAMI WARNINGS TSUNAMI WARNING ISSED AT : report/ link TSUNAMI WARNING CANCELLED AT: ---

 

 

      note: Tsunami alert here might not be up to date!         EPICENTER/ MAP

^NASA/ MODIS/ 20130125: FLOODING IN MOZAMBIQUE

 
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 4.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  

MAIN EARTHQUAKE REGIONS

FREQUENCY/ OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

NUMBER( >M 2) TECTONICS:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 4.0):

 

PACIFIC/MAINLY WEST/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC.

FREQUENT MAP

01

PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA M 4.7 - SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION - 2013-01-25 05:28:40 UTC  

REGION CHILE / ARGENTINE ( SA/ NASCA PLATE)

FREQUENT/ OCT- 2012 MAP

17

SOUTH AMERICA >< NASZA M 5.0 - JUJUY, ARGENTINA - 2013-01-25 19:53:29 UTC  

REGION INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES/ P.N.G

FREQUENT MAP

02

EURASIA >< / INDO AUSTRALIA M 4.8 - MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES - 2013-01-25 22:40:57 UTC  

KAMCHATKA PENINSULA/ KURIL ISLANDS / JAPAN

FREQUENT MAP

02

N-AMERICA >< EURASIA >< PACIFIC><PHIL. M 4.9 - KURIL ISLANDS - 2013-01-25 19:43:07 UTC  

CONTINENTAL EURASIA INCLUDING ASIA

SELDOM MAP

01

EURASIA>< AFRICA >> ARABIA M 4.3 - RUSSIA-XINJIANG BORDER REGION - 2013-01-25 10:33:38 UTC  

AFRICA- MAINLY RED SEA REGION & INDIAN OCEAN

SELDOM MAP

01

EURASIA>< AFRICA >> ARABIA<>INDO AUS M 5.3 - MADAGASCAR - 2013-01-25 23:37:01 UTC  

SECONDARY EARTHQUAKE REGIONS

   

 

     

HIGHEST MEASURED SINGLE REGIONAL EVENT (EXCEEDING MAGNITUDE M 4.0):

 

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012 MAP MAP

08

SAN ANDREAS FAULT >< JUAN DE FUCA M 4.5 - EASTERN TEXAS - 2013-01-25 07:01:19 UTC  

MEDITERRANEAN SEA REGION (ALL)

FREQUENT MAP

14

AFRICA >< EURASIA M 4.2 - MONTENEGRO - 2013-01-25 18:52:26 UTC  

NORTHERN ITALY ( NEW EARTHQUAKE SWARM)

SINCE MAR 2012 MAP

14

AFRICA >< EURASIA M 4.9 - NORTHERN ITALY - 2013-01-25 14:48:18 UTC  

ARABIC PLATE -SYRIA, IRAQ ETC. INCL. IRAN

FREQUENT MAP

01

AFRICA >< EURASIA><INDO-AUS M 5.0 - WESTERN IRAN - 2013-01-25 12:11:24 UTC  

OTHER REGIONS /TREMORS/ SWARMS (> M 3.0)

This section lists events those are rather Earthquake swarms  or volcanic tremors quakes numbered are events > M 2.0 with single events exceeding magnitude M 3.0.  

GULF OF MEXICO (GOM)/ MAINLY PUERTO RICO REGION

VARYING MAP

02

CARIBBEAN><ATLANTIC >< AFRICA  

WESTERN TURKEY

PERMANENT( higher since 2011) MAP*

03

ARABIA>< EURASIA  

EASTERN TURKEY / Near city of VAN

PERMANENT MAP*

05

ARABIA><EURASIA  

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

JULY 2012

MAP*

01

EURASIA >< ARABIA >< AFRICA  

CANADA, ALASKA/ (CASCADIAN SZ)

SOMETIMES MAP*

05

NORTH-AMERICA ><EXPLORER PLATE  

CANARY AND AZORES ISLANDS REGION

NOVEMBER - 14-2012 MAP

no data

N-AMERICA >< AFRICA >< EURASIA  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*MAP MAY NOT BE UP TO DATE!

 

      STROMBOLI/ Aeolian islands/ ITALY/ webcam ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground. com

Tropical Cyclone Garry

JAN- 20- 2013

WESTERN PACIFIC

95 MPH +-)

160.7° W

16.2° S

APPR. 280 KM NORTHWEST OF COOK ISLAND

SE

TC 2    
                           
               

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. Eventual Media reports will be posted in section "various reports"

< stats

 

This section therefor can only refer to changes in "ALERT LEVELS" as published by GVP. Click on the buttons (right) to find more detailled internal reports: volcano watch (global statistics) and regional volcano maps (all volcanoes worldwide and current activities)

 

 
REGION:
NAME/USGS datalink:
GEOGRAPHIC POSITION: LAT. / LONG.
VOLCANO NUMBER
VOLCANO TYPE
WEBCAM DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL MAP: LOCAL SURVEY

 

ECUADOR SANGAY 2°0'9"S/ 78°20'27"W 0502- 09= Stratovolcano Hi* SANGAY JANUARY- 25- 2013   SOUTHAM-N IG VAAC

 

Wikipedia:

                 
           

20130125

report by:

GVP

 

Based on a pilot report, analyses of satellite images, and information from the Guayaquil MWO, the WashingtonVAAC reported that a possible eruption from Sangay before 1210 on 25 January may have produced ash plumes. Cloud cover prevented satellite observations of emissions during 25-26 January, although a weak thermal anomaly was detected.

 

                               
                     

VARIOUS REPORTS:_

                   

 

 

 

NORTHERN ITALY- NEW EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

           

20130125

report by:

euronews.com  

Quake hits central Italy, no injuries reported

BOLOGNA, Italy (Reuters) – An earthquake of about magnitude 4.8 hit central Italy on Friday, the country’s civil protection agency said, sending residents out into the streets but causing no reported injuries or damage. Italian civil protection officials said the epicentre of the tremor was near the Tuscan town of Lucca. It was felt throughout the neighbouring Emilia Romagna region and parts of Lombardy. Barbara Wiza, a staff member at the Johns Hopkins University in Bologna, said that some buildings had been evacuated. “Compared to the last quake we did not feel it as strong. It lasted a few seconds but it wasn’t strong,” she said. A quake with tremors of up to 6.0 in the same area last year killed more than 20 people, destroyed historic buildings and caused widespread damage to local industries....read more...

 

EL HIERRO / CANARY ISLANDS / NEW ACTIVITIES

            20130126 report by: volcanodiscovery  

Small earthquakes have started to occur again in increased numbers. Following a period of calm with many days without any quakes, about 9 small quakes in the range of magnitude 1-2 have been recorded over the past 48 hours. Most of them were located at depths of 10-15 km depth under the central part of the island. Update Fri 04 Jan 10:30 It seems that the swarm has already ended.

Actualidad Volcánica de Canarias: ( report in Spnaish): Aprobado el Plan Estatal de Protección Civil ante el Riesgo Volcánico Tenerife recuerda la figura del científico Telesforo Bravo en el centenario de su nacimiento Las emisiones de dióxido de carbono del volcán fueron las responsables del 95% de la acidificación de las aguas Detectado agujero de ozono en la vertical de Tenerife por las emisiones volcánicas del Teide. LA PAGINA ACTUALIDAD VOLCANICA DE CANARIAS ALCANZA 10.000.000 DE VISITAS. Geomorfología de los Volcanes de Orchilla y de la Erupción Fisural del NE. (El Hierro, Islas Canarias) El IGME presenta un monográfico sobre el terremoto de Lorca del 2011 Seísmo de 3.8 grados al NW de El Sauzal, Tenerife (18/08/2012) La dirección del PEVOLCA declara el semáforo verde, fase de normalidad en situación de prealerta, en El Hierro Megadeslizamientos de las Islas Canarias ...read more...

 

                                 
THE CURRENTLY CONTINUING LOW SOLAR ACTIVITY INDICATES THE PROBABILITY OF UPCOMING PROTON ERUPTION / STORM

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

solen.info. updates were not available on Jan- 19

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

44

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

280-390

FLARES >

C

 

 

CH 550 SOUTH FADED JAN- 21 JAN- 23?  

 

SOLAR FLUX

100

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 1.5

 

M

 

 

CH UNN. SOUTH CHANGING JAN- 16 JAN 22  

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

05

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

70- 155 nT

CME IMPACT

X

 

 

           

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) JAN/ 11 UNKNOWN

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

   

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH
rotating out >

11658

86° - 100° W

12°  S

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

faded ( Jan- 24)

11659

28° - 42° W

04°  N

  JAN- 21

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (EVOLUTION) :

 

 

11660

57° - 71° W

12°  N

          ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>>

LOW

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
 

11661

47° - 33° W

14°  N

            LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130121

 

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)  
 

11662

39° - 25° W

28°  N

   

 

 

 

  LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20121230

20130108

 
           

 

 

 

 

       

 

                   

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
           

 

 

 

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
                  *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson

NEWLY SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

05

 

               

CMEs FROM FILAMENT ERUPTIONS:

CME Nr.:

            EVENT RELATED INTERPLANETARY (ACE) & GEOMAG (GOES) DATA. (Space for data, plots, images or video sources)  

REMARKS

    PROTON FLUX AT NORMAL LEVELS LAST KNOWN EVENT >> PROTON STORM : BEGIN: JAN 17 after 00 UTC / END: JAN 18/ 06 UTC  
                 

 

JAN- 20: ELECTRON FLUX INCREASED(10x) AFTER PROTON STORM

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2012 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Jan, 27 Jan, 28 Jan).

 

 

                 
CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)- SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA

this section will always appear, when a significant CME event was noticed and data have to be updated. You find more information about recent CME events in " today`s preliminary report"

 

(date)

CMEs at:

NONE

ARRIVAL:

JAN- 13

POLARITY: ALPHA (PROTONS) BETA UNKNOWN  

standard image:

GOES / X- RAY (nuclear activity/ solar flares)  
           

TODAY`S CME ARRIVALS:

ARRIVAL DATE:

JAN_ 25/ after 04 UTC

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT:

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

 

STRENGTH:    

>TRACKING NR

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENT

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN POLARITY: REL. MASS VALUE* MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  

06/13

-- NORTH EASTERN QUADRANT filament eruption JAN- 23 after 13: 45 (LDE) 04 UTC 155 nT   Jan 15/11- Jan 16/04 UTC 14- 22 UTC   467 NORTHERN US & WEST COAST >< PACIFIC  
REMARKS:

 

   

long/lat:

long/lat:

 

*internal

SECONDARY GEOGR. IMPACT REGIONS  
        15° E- 180° W- 150° E 30°- 150° W     EUROPE & AFRICA (WEST) >> PACIFIC/ WEST  
       
      STRENGTH   REMARKS: LATEST CME IMPACT MAP (internal):  
CURRENTLY GEO EFFECTIVE CMEs: TOTAL :

01

 

2-3

 

( Jan- 25)- A CME from a filament eruption on Jan- 23 ( event Nr 06/13) arrived on January 25 after 04 UTC and was stronger than expected

 
             
CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs TOTAL :

00

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL(S)        

 

                     
LATEST CME EVENTS:

DATE OF LAST CME ARRIVAL >

ARRIVAL DATE:

20130125

NR.:  06/13

  STRENGTH >

160 nT

HIGH (2 of 3)!

 

         

MULTIPLE CME EVENTS ( CLUSTERS) AND LATENCY EFFECTS:

PRELIMINARY EQ FORECAST:  

CME ARRIVAL TIME:

CME/ NR.: SOLAR EVENT TYPE: DATE: ARRIVAL (ESTIMATED) GEOMAG IMPACT: STRENGTH:   CMEs/ APPROACHING: LATENCY REASON: " IMMIDIATE EFFECTS"( see below): VOLCANISM / STORMS ACTIVITIES CURRENTLY ESTIMATED LATENCY FOR MAJOR EARTHQUAKES:  

20130106/after 04 UTC

01/13

eruptive prominence in AR 11640 at 15:11 UTC

20130104/ 15:11 UTC

20130106

  LOW          

 

20130113/- after 01 UTC

02/13

Impulsive M 1.7 proton flare in AR 11654

20130111/ 09:11 UTC

20130113

PROTON CONTENT! (2-3)  

02

PROTON EVENT   NO LATENCY  

220130116/ after 03 UTC

03/13

solar flare

20130113/

20130115

140 nT LOW  

02

PROTON EVENT   LATENCY  

20130117/ after 03 uTC

04/13

eruptive event near AR 11650- associated to minor proton increase

20130115

20130117

195 nT EFFECTIVE PROTONS!  

01

PROTON EVENT   LATENCY  

20130118/ after 12:30 UTC

05/13

major flare in AR 11650 after proton eruption

20130116/ 19:23 UTC

 

195 nT EFFECTIVE PROTONS!  

00

last (of 4)CMEs LIKELY TO INCREASE AFTER JAN- 20 LATENCY  

20130125 / after 04 UTC(ongoing)

06/13

LDE filament eruption in Northeastern quadrant

20130123/ 13:45 UTC

 

160 nT 2-3  

00

INTERFERING INCREASING ( 2-3) UNCERTAIN (JAN- 28- 30?)  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note,, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130125/

int. CME Nr. >>

06/13

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

30°- 150° W

INTERFERS WITH PREVIOUS CMEs

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

ELECTRON INCREASE

SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS

ALL AMERICAS

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

AMERICAS>< PACIFIC

 

NEW CME ARRIVAL

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

N- US WEST COAST

SOUTH

AM.><JUAN DE FUCA>< PAC

 

 

25 - JANUARY - 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

EAST & CENTR. PACIFIC

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

EUR.><PACIF. >< AMER.

 

M 5.5 - 6.5 (potential: > 7.5!)

1-2 (LATENCY)

 

INDUCED CURRENTS

ATLANTIC (ALL)

AFR. >< AMERICAS><EUR.

 

26 - JANUARY - 2013

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5 - 6.5(potential: > 7.5!)

1-2 (LATENCY)

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

15° E- 180° W- 150° E

15° E- 180° W- 150° E

 

27 - JANUARY - 2013

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME EUROPE & AFRICA/WEST) EURASIA >< AFR><INDO/AUS

 

M 5.5 - >7..5  (rising?)

2-3 (prelim.)

 

HIGH SUN SPOT NUMBER/ EFFECTS (REGIONAL): HOT & DRY WESTERN PACIFIC *REGIONS> see definition below PACIFIC >< INDO-AUS ><

 

 

LATE CME EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES* CURRENT DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: LATENCY BY PROTON INFLUENCES    

 

*BY TECTONICS COOLING DOWN = RELATED TECTONIC PLATES ARE EXPECTED  TO BE HEATED BY CME IMPACT

 

geomagnetic field density still on elavated levels- further quakes> M 6.0 likely

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/GEO.magnetometer

GOES 3- days- SET- ENVIRONMENT

 

INFLUENCES> ELECTRON IMPACT AFTER PROTON EVENTS  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS/ LATENCY

 

 

 

EFFECTING AS > PROTON EVENT EQ- LATENCY-  (UNTIL JAN- 26?)

 

QUIET

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

SOURCES/ REPORTS /LINKS:

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 

S. RADIATION STORM:

NONE NONE REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

MAJOR STORM   RADIO BLACKOUTS NONE NONE REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA  

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE NONE  

internal remarks:

 

SOLAR STORMS:

DECREASING

SOLAR STORMS ARE INTENSIVE PARTICLE EMISSIONS

 

 

 

> 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS

> 1000 < 10.000 pfu

 

INTERNAL REPORT /GOES  DATA  

 

2 MeV ELECTRONS

< 100 pfu

 

INTERNAL REPORT /GOES  DATA

 

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM NONE NONE INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft reached a peak of 423 km/s at 25/1918Z. Total IMF reached 17.7 nT at 25/1944Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4.3 nT at 25/0147Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 531 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (26 Jan, 27 Jan, 28 Jan)..

 

                       

 

3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT:

 

EXPLANATIONS>

Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.

Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./

orange= medium impact

Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME. Colors from orange to light red mark GRADUAL IMPACTS OF MULTIPLE CMEs CLUSTERS.

 

HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST>

INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions!

STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS

The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER a LATENCY period due to CME IMPACT on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES within the RED until the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Read "latency remarks"

 

REGIONS

REGION "A"

REGION "B"

REGION "C"

REGION" D"

REGION "E"

REGION "F"

PROTON EVENT!

 

REGIONS COVERED BY LATEST CME IMPACT>

EASTERN EURASIA- CHINA- INDONESIA-WESTERN PACIFIC PHILIPPINES--AUSTRALIA WEST ALEUT./ KAMCHATKA- JAPAN/EAST- AUSTRALIA/ (EAST), PNG. NZL WESTERN USA+ WEST COAST- EASTERN PACIFIC- CANADA-ALASKA

WESTERN ATLANTIC/ PANAMERICA/ CENTRAL USA/ SOUTH AMERICA

CENTRAL (WEST) EUROPE/ AFRICA, EASTERN ATLANTIC/ CANARIES/ ICELAND ETC.

INDIA & INDIAN OCEAN- AFRICA (EAST), ARABIA ASIA MINOR

RELATED CME EVENT: FILAMENT ERUPTION/ JAN 23

 

RELATED TECTONIC BOUNDARIES>

WESTERN PACIFIC< EAST EURASIA>< INDO-AUSTRALIA

NORTH AMERICA (W) >< EURASIA (E) ><PACIFIC (E)

NORTH AMERICA/ incl. Microplates ><PACIFIC

AFRICA >< CARRIBEAN >< SOUTH AMERIA >< NASCA>< COCOS

EURASIA <> N-AMERICA/WESTCARRIBEAN ><AFRICA

EURASIA><ARABIA ><INDO-AUSTRALIA

CME INTERFERS WITH PREVIOUS IMPACTS

 

UTC TIME ZONES >

..

.......

...

...

......

..

20130125/ after 04:00 UTC (LDE)

 

LONGITUDES>

120° E- 90° E

135° E- 180° - 135° W

90° W- 135° W

45° W- 90° W

45° W - 00° W- 45° E

45° E- 90° E

Nr.: 06/ 13

 

     

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

JANUARY

 

DAY:

24

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

 

 

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

 

 

try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 -TODAY`s EVENTS:

MORE SPECIAL REPORTS WILL FOLLOW LATER DURING THE DAY AND LATER AS SOON AS PUBLISHED!

 

 

                EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC  

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

  NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS  
This report will be continued later today!

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS >

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.4 - RUSSIA-XINJIANG BORDER REGION - 2013-01-24 07:35:36 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

49.84 N ; 87.66 E

DEPTH >

2 km

 

CLICK HERE TO SELFCHECK RELATED NOAA TSUNAMI WARNINGS TSUNAMI WARNING ISSED AT : report/ link TSUNAMI WARNING CANCELLED AT: ---

 

 

      note: Tsunami alert here might not be up to date!         EPICENTER/ MAP ^NASA/ MODIS- 20120124- ACTIVITY AT TOLBACHIK VOLCANO  
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 4.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  

MAIN EARTHQUAKE REGIONS

FREQUENCY/ OBSERVED ON:

click for epicenter map:

NUMBER( >M 2) TECTONICS:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 4.0):

 

PACIFIC/MAINLY WEST/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC.

FREQUENT MAP

01

PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.1 - FIJI - 2013-01-24 02:17:09 UTC  

REGION INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES/ P.N.G

FREQUENT MAP

01

EURASIA >< / INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.0 - SULAWESI, INDONESIA - 2013-01-24 09:35:54 UTC  

KAMCHATKA PENINSULA/ KURIL ISLANDS / JAPAN

FREQUENT MAP

01

N-AMERICA >< EURASIA >< PACIFIC><PHIL. M 5.3 - HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION - 2013-01-23 21:34:33 UTC  

NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND ARCTIC SEA

MAINLY DURING SUMMERTIME MAP

01

NORTH-AMERICA >< EURASIA M 4.7 - REYKJANES RIDGE - 2013-01-24 21:23:04 UTC  

CONTINENTAL EURASIA INCLUDING ASIA

SELDOM MAP

03

EURASIA>< AFRICA >> ARABIA M 4.2 - SOUTHERN IRAN - 2013-01-24 09:28:31 UTC  

SECONDARY EARTHQUAKE REGIONS

   

 

     

HIGHEST MEASURED SINGLE REGIONAL EVENT (EXCEEDING MAGNITUDE M 4.0):

 

PANAMERICA

FREQUENT SINCE 2012 MAP

01

N & SOUTH AMERICA >< COCOS M 4.8 - COSTA RICA - 2013-01-24 07:08:16 UTC  

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012 MAP MAP

10

SAN ANDREAS FAULT >< JUAN DE FUCA M 4.0 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA- 2013/01/24 23:25:51  

OTHER REGIONS /TREMORS/ SWARMS (> M 3.0)

This section lists events those are rather Earthquake swarms  or volcanic tremors quakes numbered are events > M 2.0 with single events exceeding magnitude M 3.0.  

MEDITERRANEAN SEA REGION (ALL)

FREQUENT MAP*

12

AFRICA >< EURASIA  

GULF OF MEXICO (GOM)/ MAINLY PUERTO RICO REGION

VARYING MAP*

04

CARIBBEAN><ATLANTIC >< AFRICA  

WESTERN TURKEY

PERMANENT( higher since 2011) MAP*

05

ARABIA>< EURASIA  

EASTERN TURKEY / Near city of VAN

PERMANENT MAP*

11

ARABIA><EURASIA  

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

JULY 2012

MAP*

02

EURASIA >< ARABIA >< AFRICA  

CANADA, ALASKA/ (CASCADIAN SZ)

SOMETIMES MAP*

05

NORTH-AMERICA ><EXPLORER PLATE  

CANARY AND AZORES ISLANDS REGION

NOVEMBER - 14-2012 MAP

00

N-AMERICA >< AFRICA >< EURASIA  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*MAP MAY NOT BE UP TO DATE!

 

      ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  
               

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

note: allthough CME impacts are regularly coincident at least with TEMPORARY volcano acticity increases, my time does not allow to introduce such DETAILLED resp. "FINE TUNED" statistic reports

< stats

 

as required to communicate this. This section therefor can only refer to changes in "ALERT LEVELS" as published by GVP. Click on the buttons (right) to find more detailled internal reports: volcano watch (global statistics) and regional volcano maps (all volcanoes worldwide and current activities)

 

 
volcano-discovery/gadget

note: this report does NOT necessarely represent all currently global active volcanoes!

      2012 report by: GVP  
REGION:
NAME/USGS datalink:
GEOGRAPHIC POSITION: LAT. / LONG.
VOLCANO NUMBER
VOLCANO TYPE
WEBCAM DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL MAP: LOCAL SURVEY  
             
 

 

 

 

 

 

Wikipedia:

                 

 

             

2013

report by:

GVP  

 

 

                             

 

                     

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS >

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

click here for today`s European Weather situation - provided by: METEOALARM

www. wunderground.com

 

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 

wunderground. com Tropical Cyclone Peta

JAN- 22- 2013

INDIAN OCEAN

40 MPH  ()

117.3° E

21.6° S

ABOVE KARJINI NATIONAL PARK/ NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA

SSW

TC    
wunderground. com

Tropical Cyclone Garry

JAN- 20- 2013

WESTERN PACIFIC

45 MPH (-)

167.2° W 

13.4° S

APPR. 600 KM NORTHWEST OF COOK ISLAND

E

TC    
                           

VARIOUS REPORTS:_

                   
                           

US/ COLD WEATHER PEHENOMENONS

 

 

20130125

.msnbc.msn

FLOOD FOLLOWING RECORD HEAT

 

20130125

report by

heraldsun.com.au  

Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy 

 

 

NBC News | Aired on January 25, 2013 Cold weather grips much of US The nation is in the grips of a blast of cold Arctic air with temperatures falling to some of the lowest marks in years and wind chills plummeting to dangerously low levels. NBC's Jay Gray reports...read more...

Big wet prompts SE Qld dam releases

DAM levels will be reduced in southeast Queensland as authorities brace for the flooding rain that has drenched the state's north in recent days. More than 500mm fell in 24 hours in parts of Rockhampton in central Queensland and the Bureau of Meteorology expects 200mm to 300mm to fall in the southeast at the weekend as ex-tropical cyclone Oswald continues its rampage down the state's east coast. Premier Campbell Newman and Water Supply Minister Mark McArdle announced controlled releases from Brisbane's Wivenhoe and North Pine dams on Friday as a precautionary measure. About 41,000 megalitres will be released from Wivenhoe Dam and about 8000 m....read more...

 
               

20130125

report by

sabc.co.za

 

Mozambique floods hit power exports, displace 70 000

Floods in southern Mozambique have displaced up to 70 000 people and cut power exports to energy-hungry neighbour South Africa in half, officials said yesterday. The south and centre of the country have been placed on red alert after experiencing the heaviest rainfall since devastating floods killed some 800 people in 2000. In some places current water levels are higher than they were during that disaster....read more...

read also: (euronews) Mozambique rescues 12,000 families from floods

 

                                 
THE CURRENTLY CONTINUING LOW SOLAR ACTIVITY INDICATES THE PROBABILITY OF UPCOMING PROTON ERUPTION / STORM

 

 

 

 

 

 

- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

solen.info. updates were not available on Jan- 19

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

60

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

 352

FLARES >

C

02

 

CH 550 SOUTH FADED JAN- 21 JAN- 23?  

 

SOLAR FLUX

103

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 1.6

 

M

 

 

CH UNN. SOUTH CHANGING JAN- 16 JAN 22  

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

01

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

55- 123

minor CME impact

X

 

 

           

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (observed at 00:00 UTC)

 

 

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) JAN/ 11 UNKNOWN

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

   

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH
 

11658

72° - 86° W

12°  S

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

REEMERGED

11659

28° - 42° W

04°  N

  JAN- 21

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (EVOLUTION) :

 

 

11660

43° - 57° W

12°  N

          ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>>

LOW

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
 

11661

47° - 61° W

14°  N

            LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130121

 

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)  
NEWLY EMERGED

11662

67° - 53° W

28°  N

   

 

 

 

  LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20121230

20130108

 
           

 

 

 

 

       

 

                 

 

EVENT RELATED INTERPLANETARY (ACE) & GEOMAG (GOES) DATA PLOTS:

 

  GOES/ ELECTRON FLUX (GM FIELD)

 

ACE /SOLAR WIND/ ELECTRONS / PROTONS ACE/ INTERPLANETARY PROTON FLUX)

 

 

 

 

 

   
   
   
   
ELECTRON FLUX  INCREASED AFTER PROTON STORM   NEW SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTERPLANETARY PROTON FLUX    

NEWLY SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

05

 

                 

CMEs FROM FILAMENT ERUPTIONS:

CME Nr.:

         

GOES- PROTON FLUX

PROTON STORM : BEGIN JAN 17 after 00 UTC / END: JAN 18/ 06 UTC

REMARKS

 

GOES ELECTRON FLUX

JAN- 16: ELECTRON FLUX STILL FLUCTUATING BY PROTON INFLUENCE
red letters = currently most active region abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, Cso etc. ) = Sun spot class. alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**

 

   

 

 

*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson)

 

INTERNAL RESSOURCES> LATEST CME IMPACT MAP (internal

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2012 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels on days one, two, and three (25 Jan, 26 Jan, 27 Jan).

 

 

                 
CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME)- SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA    

 

       

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LATEST CME IMPACT MAP (internal):

 

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note,, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130116- 18/ (3 CMEs)

int. CME Nr. >>

03-05/13

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

PRIMARY REGIONS

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

00° - 30° W/ 75°- 115° W

HIGH (PROTON EVENT)

PLATE BOUNDARIES OF

 

ALERT LEVEL

ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

ELECTRON INCREASE

SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS

ALL AMERICAS (WEST)

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

AMERICAS>< PACIFIC

 

ACTIVE ELECTRONS

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

WEST EUROPE & AFRICA

SOUTH

AFRICA >< AMERICAS

 

 

24 - JANUARY - 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

ATLANTIC

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

N-AMERICA><EURASIA

 

M 5.5 - 6.5 (potential: > 7.5!)

1-2 (LATENCY)

 

INDUCED CURRENTS

SOUTH EAST PACIFIC

PACIFIC>< INDO-AUS

 

25 - JANUARY - 2013

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5 - 6.5(potential: > 7.5!)

1-2 (LATENCY)

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

120° W- 180 °- 120 ° E

 

 

26 - JANUARY - 2013

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after proton CME KAMCHATKA/ JAPAN EURASIA >< AFR><INDO/AUS

 

M 5.5 - >7..5  (rising?)

2-3 (prelim.)

 

HIGH SUN SPOT NUMBER/ EFFECTS (REGIONAL): HOT & DRY EASTERN EUROPE *REGIONS> see definition below EURASIA >< INDO-AUS ><

 

 

LATE CME EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES* CURRENT DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: LATENCY BY PROTON INFLUENCES    

 

*BY TECTONICS COOLING DOWN = RELATED TECTONIC PLATES ARE EXPECTED  TO BE HEATED BY CME IMPACT

 

geomagnetic field density still on elavated levels- further quakes> M 6.0 likely

 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/GEO.magnetometer

GOES 3- days- SET- ENVIRONMENT

 

INFLUENCES> ELECTRON IMPACT AFTER PROTON EVENTS  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS/ LATENCY

 

 

 

EFFECTING AS > PROTON EVENT EQ- LATENCY-  (UNTIL JAN- 26?)

 

QUIET

 

* note: reports by NOAA are sometimes published later resp. backdated

 

UNSETTLED

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:*

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

ACTIVE

 

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

SOURCES/ REPORTS /LINKS:

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 

S. RADIATION STORM:

NONE NONE REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

MAJOR STORM   RADIO BLACKOUTS NONE NONE REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA  

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE NONE  

internal remarks:

 

SOLAR STORMS:

DECREASING

SOLAR STORMS ARE INTENSIVE PARTICLE EMISSIONS

 

 

 

> 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS

> 1000 < 10.000 pfu

 

INTERNAL REPORT /GOES  DATA  

 

2 MeV ELECTRONS

>100 < 1000 pfu

 

INTERNAL REPORT /GOES  DATA

 

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM