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alien- homepage.de- Earth quake statistics- -SUN SPOT ACTIVITY- 11- years solar cycle- last update: JUNE- 02- 2013- -07:00 UTC copyright: reserved

background image: Aurora Borealis /COMMONS / wikipedia
open source earthquake forecast project created and provided by: alien-homepage.de-

 

According to NASA, this 24th. 11 year sun spot cycle has probably a " twin peak"- the second in 2015. This projekt therefore will be prolongued.
 
2012/ 13 - MAXIMUM OF 11- YEAR SOLAR CYCLE
SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG

ARCHIVE MAY - 2013

NASA STEREO BEACON

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SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG/ ARCHIVES:
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2012 >

2011 >
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NOTE: I WILL INTRODUCE A NEW ARCHIVE SYSTEM IN 2012. CLICK ON THE BUTTON (right) FOR THE NEW ARCHIVE DIRECTORY! >

Note: Due to the high data amount in these monthly archives, I am currently trying to improve this by putting the single archives into collapsible panels.

Also I will split the monthly archive into 4 weekly ones. click on the following tabs to open the collapsible panels. You can report to my blog, if you should still experience problems when loading this page.

click here to open panel with graphics, volcano maps , earthquake statistic- MAY- 2013
   

True and REAL TIME graphic solution, that makes obvious the coincidences of CME impacts and extraordinary natural phenomenons such as heavier Earthquakes, volcano eruptions, hurricanes. sudden ice meltdowns (floddings) and others

( click on the graphic top to enlarge it):

 
INTERNAL MAPS: click on the images or links below to get to my large regional maps, where you find all volcanoes around the world with descriptions , webcams and much more such as ancients sites! . Weekly regular activity updates, special earthquakes events with many functions

world volcano map 1.0

world volcano map version 2.0

Europe and Western Asia Africa and Arabic peninsula Central America and Mexico South America- Northern part South America- Southern part Central America and Mexico Northern America Kamchatka peninsula Japan region Indonesia and Philippines Australia and Southern Pacific

 

SPACECRAFTS:  
SoHO
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
SDO /AIA
Solar Dynamics Observatory
STEREO
Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory
GOES
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites

ACE

 
 
 
 
 
 
Advanced Composition Explorer

^^ internal Earthquake statistics- with Sun activity curves : green = SUNSPOT NUMBER, Pink= SOLAR FLUX, blue= PLANETARY A INDEX- right image: planetary constellations in March 2013

click here to see some of the paradox observations made during that solar cycle first possibly by observatory sopacecrafts: : CORONAL HOLES THOSE REAPPEAR DURING SEVERAL SOLAR ROTATION PERIODS ON THE SAME HELIOGRAPHIC POSITION

 

VIDEOS/ CME REVENTS/ SPECIAL EVENTS LOGS IN- MAY- 2013:

VIDEOS/ REPORTS OF THE WEEK- MAY -2013:

   
 

  EVENT LOGS/ - MAY- 2013
 
CME EVENTS / MAY 2013 (click here to open collapsible panel)
MAJOR EARTH DIRECTED CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME) AND SAP IN MAY 2013:

this section will always appear, when a significant CME event was noticed and data have to be updated. You find more information about recent CME events in " today`s preliminary report"

 
SOLAR CME EVENT (REPORT):                  

20130522

CMEs at:

08:57 UTC

ARRIVAL:

MAY 23- 24

POLARITY: ALPHA BETA UNKNOWN  

GOES/ GEOMAG. PROTON FLUX

GOES / X- RAY (nuclear activity/ solar flares)  

TRACKING NR.:

24/13

20130522/ 14:54 UTC 20130522/ 13:14 20130522/ 13:36 UTC 20130522/ 17:36 UTC  

 

ACTIVE REGION:

11745

 

 

Earth directed?

PARTIAL HALO  

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

67 ° - 81° W

13 °  N

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

impulsive LDE flare

M6  
PROTON EMISSION- 100 MEV P > 1000 pfu! (1) STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) SDO /AIA-comp (3) SoHO/ LASCO C 2

(4) SoHO/ LASCO C 32

 

 

TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << RADIO BLACKOUT WARNINGS NOAA/ X RAY EVENTS: NOAA/ PROTON EVENTS:

 

 

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TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION

 

   

Abbreviations:

LDE=

Long Duration Event

2013

alien-homepage.de

 

10 cm RADIO BURST  

 

               

RELATED CME ARRIVAL REPORT

CME/ Nr.:

24 /13

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

SEASONAL MAIN IMPACT LATITUDES:

60° N- 60° S

STRENGTH: 2-3  

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENT

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN/ UTC POLARITY: REL. MASS VALUE MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  
APPROACHING...

11745

67 ° - 81° W

13 °  N

Explosion during M 5 LDE flare MAY- 22- 2013 13:00 UTC                    
REMARKS: STRONG geomagnetic depression caused by > 1000 pfu proton storm( MAY22 after 13 UTC).) lowered by proton influence!)       E   WESTERN AMERICA & PACIFIC / INDONESIA/ INDIAN OCEAN  
MULTIPLE CME EVENTS ( CLUSTERS) AND LATENCY EFFECTS:
SINGLE STRONG IMPULSIVE ERUPTION DURING LDE FLARE WITH ASSOCIATED TO MAJOR PROTON STORM
 
CMEs/ APPROACHING:
CLUSTER
 
LATENCIES >
EASTERN EURASIA
GLOBAL
 
                       
X CLASS EVENTS AND CME CLUSTER/ 20130513-17 CME CLUSTER!                

RELATED CME ARRIVAL REPORT

CME/ Nr.:

23- a-d /13

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

SEASONAL MAIN IMPACT LATITUDES:

60° N- 60° S

STRENGTH: 2-3  

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENT

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN/ UTC POLARITY: REL. MASS VALUE MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  

20130515- 20

AR 11748

87° - 24° E 11° N 4 X+ CLASS EVENTS/ CME CLUSTER MAY 13/04 UTC- MAY 17( 1:11 UTC CLUSTER after 09 UTC 140 nT* (   influenced by proton storm 14- 60° /120° W associated to longest proton storm measured in the last two years! HIGH* ATLANTIC/ KAMCHATKA  
REMARKS: STRONG geomagnetic depression caused by > 10 pfu proton storm ( MAY 13- 21- dim.) lowered by proton influence!)   total impact: 40 hours* 165° W- 15° E E   WESTERN AMERICA & PACIFIC / INDONESIA/ INDIAN OCEAN  
MULTIPLE CME EVENTS ( CLUSTERS) AND LATENCY EFFECTS:
t MULTIPLE CME CLUSTER ASSOCIATED TO PROTON STORM/ estimated IMPACT duration: APRIL 23- 25
 
CMEs/ APPROACHING:
CLUSTER
* (incalculable because of proton storm
LATENCIES >
EASTERN EURASIA
GLOBAL
 
                         

20130517

CMEs at:

08:57 UTC

ARRIVAL:

MAY 19-20

POLARITY: ALPHA BETA UNKNOWN  

GOES/ GEOMAG. PROTON FLUX

GOES / X- RAY (nuclear activity/ solar flares)  

TRACKING NR.:

23 d/13

20130517/ 11:09 UTC 20130517/ 09:13 UTC 20130517/ 09:48 UTC 20130517/ 11:06  

 

ACTIVE REGION:

11748

 

 

Earth directed?

FULLY HALO  

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

38 ° - 24° E

11 °  N

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

impulsive LDE flare

M 3.2  
PROTON EMISSION/ STORM! (1) STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) SDO /AIA-comp (3) SoHO/ LASCO C 2

(4) SoHO/ LASCO C 3

 

 

TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << RADIO BLACKOUT WARNINGS  

Abbreviations

LDE=

Long Duration Event

 

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TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION EVENT REPORTS:    

2013

alien-homepage.de

 

10 cm RADIO BURST                        
                         
                       

20130515

CMEs at:

01:59 UTC

ARRIVAL:

MAY 17- 18

POLARITY: ALPHA BETA UNKNOWN  

GOES/ GEOMAG. PROTON FLUX

GOES / X- RAY (nuclear activity/ solar flares)  

TRACKING NR.:

23 c/13

20130515/ 02:54 UTC 20130515/ 02:13 UTC 20130515/ 01:59 UTC 20130515/ 01:54 UTC  

 

ACTIVE REGION:

11748

 

 

Earth directed?

PARTIAL HALO  

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

11° N

63° E

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

impulsive LDE

X 1.2 (LDE)  
PROTON EMISSION/ STORM! (1) STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) SDO /AIA-comp (3) SDO /AIA-comp

(4) SoHO/ LASCO C 3

 

 

TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << RADIO BLACKOUT WARNINGS  

Abbreviations

LDE=

Long Duration Event

 

try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION EVENT REPORTS:    

2013

alien-homepage.de

 

10 cm RADIO BURST                        
                         

20130514

CMEs at:

01:11 UTC

ARRIVAL:

MAY 16

POLARITY: ALPHA BETA UNKNOWN  

 

TRACKING NR.:

23 b /13

    20130514/ 03: 09 UTC 20130514/ 01:11 UTC  

 

ACTIVE REGION:

11748

     

 

Earth directed?

PARTIAL  

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

81 ° - 67° E

11 °  N

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

impulsive flare

X 1.1  
PROTON EMISSION/ STORM! (1) STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) SoHO/ LASCO C 3 (3) SDO /AIA-comp

(4) SDO /AIA-comp

 

 

TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << RADIO BLACKOUT WARNINGS  

Abbreviations

LDE=

Long Duration Event

 

 

TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION EVENT REPORTS:      

 

10 cm RADIO BURST            
             
                                 
                                 
                                 
 
Solar and terrestrial event logs- click here to open collapsible panel
 

MAJOR WARNING

update- MAY 22: THE CURRENT CME PROCESS ( as described in column right side) WAS INTERRUPTED BY ANOTHER EXTREME STRONG PROTON STORM ON MAY 22- reaching more than 1000 pfu.! MAJOR EARTHQUAKES MIGHT AGAIN OCCURE DURING THE NEXT DAYS .

, TERRESTRIAL RADIO BLACKOUTS ARE LIKELY IN in the next days RADIO BLACKOUTS MIGHT OCCURE IN TERRESTRIAL GRIDS OVER THE NEXT DAYS AS WELL AS HIGH INDUCED CURRENTS ON POWER GRIDS, THOSE LEAD TO TRANSFORMER FIRE AND WORSE!

THE FOLLOWING EFFECTS WILL DELAY UNTIL PROTON STORM DECREASES ( follow my updates!)

MAJOR CONTINUED WARNING ALSO FOR SUDDEN STORMS AND THUNDERSTORMS!

THE LAST PHASE OF A TYPICAL PROTON/ CME EVENT ARE STRONG EARTHQUAKES THOSE WILL OCCURE, WHEN TECTONIC PLATES WILL BE ABLE TO COOL DOWN AGAIN. DUE TO THE EVENT STRENGTH, THESE LATE QUAKES THIS TIME MIGHT EXCEEED MAGNITUDE OF M 9.0 ( INCLUDING MAJOR TSUNAMI RISKS!) ( read more in right column >>

mmmm  

MAY 22- 2013: STRONGEST PROTON STORM RECORDED EVER?

large AR 11745 ( aneighbored and corresponding with AR 11748) produced on May 22 its first real eruption since it began to move over the visible sun disc. The LDE ( long duration event) peaked at 13 UTC with class M 5 but was in real THE STRONGEST PROTON FLARE ( acceleration) observed in the last 2 years. Protons showered onto SOHO almost simultanously with the arriving light bulb of the flare and CME what means; these protons were accelerated near to the speed of light ! Introgeomagnetic > 10 MeV Proton flux however rose just minutes later ABOVE 1000 pfu ( in words: one thousand) !! what is an ABSULUTE record high!.

A LEAST 5 VOLCANOES INCREASED THEIR ACTIVITIES ALREADY ON MAY 23.

           
 

MAY- 21- 2013: The CME Cluster has completed its impact. First terrestrial effects must be expected

update- MAY 22: THE CURRENT CME PROCESS ( as described in column right side) WAS INTERRUPTED BY ANOTHER EXTREME STRONG PROTON STORM ON MAY 22- reaching more than 1000 pfu.! MAJOR EARTHQUAKES MIGHT AGAIN OCCURE DURING THE NEXT DAYS .

  MAY- 14- 2013

THE HIGHEST ACTIVITY OBSERVED DURING THIS 24. SOLAR SUN SPOT CYCLE!

MAY- 14- 2013 AR 11748 appeared right behindvery active AR 11745and surprisingly produced THREE impulsive X flares yet during the past 24 hours! MAY- 13: An X 1 flare at 2:00 UTCwas associated to a strong wide CME that appeared partial halo on SoHO- AR 11748 rotated in on May 14(N11E81) just behind and interacts with aneighbored AR 11745. An impulsive M flare followed at 12:03 UTC from AR 11748. .Shortly after that. AR 11748 produced another X 2.8 flare at 16:14 UTC The associated CME was also very wide and formed with the earlier M event a FULL HALO CME. LAST NOT LEAST. AR 11748 produced yet ANOTHER X 3 flare early on MAY 14 ( around 01 UTC). (No images were yet available from that event). ALSO A PROTON INCREASE WAS OBSERVED WITHIN THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD (GOES) after May 13/ 23 UTC. .

           
MAY- 21- 2013

MAY- 21- 2013: The CME Cluster has completed its impact. First terrestrial effects must be expected

The extreme activity in AR 11748 is associated to a major continuing PROTON STORM, that began shortly after the first X flare on May 13 and is with > 10 Me V Protons between 10 and 100 pfu also the strongest and longest so far in 2013. The flancs of the first CMEs were noticable on Earth on May 15. Between May 15 and 20 at all arounnd 4 minor CMEs portions impacted, from those the last one on May 20 was the strongest also with auroras visible ion the Southern parts of the US. The associated Proton storm- the longest and strongest so far observed in the last years- neutralised many active electrons, what again significantly LOWERED all measurements taken during that time ( geomagnetic depression) resulting as wrong ( too low) results on the CMEs strength.The proton flux dropped below 10 pfu on May 19. The subsequent ELECTRON STORM slowly set in on May 21 and might LIKELY CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ONE WEEK, DURING which all typical effects must be expectedAs usually , when the cinetic energy of the CMES became EFFECTIVE. update- MAY 22: THIS PROCESS WAS INTERRUPTED BY ANOTHER EXTREME STRONG PROTON STORM ON MAY 22- reaching more than 1000 pfu.!

MAY- 21- 2013: BEGINNING ELECTRON STORM/ WITH HIGHEST ALERT LEVEL?

.MAINYL INCREASING VOLCANIC TREMORS were observed as typically during the past two days , when electrons became effective after the proton storm and CME events from May 13- 20.

HIGHEST ALERT MUST THEREFOR BE CONSIDERED FOR ANY ACTIVE VOLCANO IN THE WORLD MIGHT SUDDENLY ENHANCE ITS ACTIVITY NOW AND IN THE FURTHER ( 14) DAYS AND WEEKS.

VOLCANISM ( Mainly on hotspot volcanoes will INCREASE OVER THE ENTIRE TIME the ELECTRON STORM WILL LAST AND WILL LIKELY HAVE DANGEROUS LEVELS.

RADIO BLACKOUTS MIGHT OCCURE IN TERRESTRIAL GRIDS OVER THE NEXT DAYS AS WELL AS HIGH INDUCED CURRENTS ON POWER GRIDS, THOSE LEAD TO TRANSFORMER FIRE AND WORSE!.

, TERRESTRIAL RADIO BLACKOUTS ARE LIKELY IN in the first days as well as STRONG SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS, SUDDEN (GLACIAL=) MELTDOWNS AND FLOODINGS.

MAJOR CONTINUED WARNING ALSO FOR SUDDEN STORMS AND THUNDERSTORMS!

MAY- 21- 2013: HE CURRENT RISK FOR MAJOR EARTHQUAKE IS RATHER LOW AND WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE BE lOW IN THE COMING 1.2 WEEKS!

MAJOR EARTHQUAKES POSSIBLY EXCEEEDING MAGNITUDES OF M 9.0 MIGHT OCCURE DUE TO THE STRONG ( PROTON) ACTIVITIES AFTER A LONGER LATENCY PERIOD (exact time: currently only estimatable depending on further solar activity- sometimes TOWARDS END OF May- 1. week in JUNE. .Follow my daily updates!

  20130509 solen.info/ 20130509 : A very active region AR11745is just behind the northeast limb (near N12) and was the source of the day's only C5+ flare, a C9.0 event (wrongly assigned to AR 11744 by SWPC) at 23:16 UTC. An M3.9 flare was recorded at 00:57 UTC on May 10. Further M class flaring is possible.            

 

APRIL 30/ 2013

New stronger seismic activity (> M 4.0) near REJIKIAVIK/ Iceland and KATLA VOLCANO

Today, April 30- 2013 , we have again the reaction of hotspot volcanoes as after all previous proton events.ETNA in Sicil performed its strongest eruption jet in 2013. A stronger seismic swarm began near the Azores today ( M 5.2) and tremor activity resumed also nearby El Hierro with initial quakes above 3.4 in just 12 km depth

 

  APRIL 11 -2013

APRIL 11 -2013/ 07:14 UTC: AR 11719 produced a strong M 7 flare, while just passing the CENTRAL SOLAR MERIDIAN and JUST 9° NORTH OF THE SUN EQUATOR! A fully halo CME followed the strong eruption- ..The FULL HALO CME ( including half of the partial halo CME core) will arrive aprroximately on APRIL 13- 14 and must be expected to become a STRONG GEOEFFECTIVE EVENT

SDO images indicated further a solar quake( with subsequent proton storm) prior to the M 7 event began in the latter half of April 10 at 22 UTC , with several shockwave bringing SDO temporarely out of position. First Protons then indeed impacted into the geomagnetic just three hours after the M 7 flare and GOES measured a sharp 100 x increase of introgeomagnetig proton flux after 10: 30 UTC. (= Protons had been accelerated to appr 17.000 km/ second!) The propton storm began to decrease on April 13 and was almost back to normal valuies on April 15.THe FULL HALO CME in combination with that proton storm is likely to be one of the strongest EARTH DIRECTED CME events observed at least in the past two years

           
April 30- 2013 Today, April 30- 2013 , we have again the reaction of hotspot volcanoes as after all previous proton events.ETNA in Sicil performed its strongestr eruption jet in 2013. A stronger seismic swarm began near the Azores today ( M 5.2) and tremor activity resumed also nearby El Hierro with initial quakes above 3.4 in just 12 km depth.   MARCH- 05- 2013 On April 05 a more active region 11719 rotated into view and produced an M 2.5 flare on March 05 from the Eastern limb. The wide CME unleashed during the event might have minor earth directed parts.-            
APRIL 21/ 2013

APRIL 21/ 2013> ANOTHER SOLAR QUAKE & PROTON STORMWHILE PREVIOUS ONE ON APRIL 11 WAS STILL ACTIVE >>

EXTENDED WARNING OF EARTHQUAKES POSSIBLY EXCEEEDING MAGNITUDES OF M 9.0 AFTER LATENCY PERIOD (exact time: currently only estimatable sometimes between May 3- 10?( follow my daily updates!

To my other surprise there is another proton storm today that started after 9 UTC, not much more than 10 days after the previous one that triggered many strong earthquakes those continued on APril 21. . And I want to say it frankly as it just accords to my research and statistic comparation>This second proton storm within 14 days might trigger a range of very powerful natural DISASTERS As WE HAVE WITNESSED THE LAST DECADE, with earthquake that MAY MOST PROBABLY EXCEED again the magnitude of M 9.0, when tectonic plates heated up now by the magnetic short circuit of the proton event ) will began to cool down and contract again!

  APRIL- 01- 2013 APRIL- 01- 2013 Solar activity is increasing due to regular fluctuations.THE NEW AND LARGE REGION AR 11711 rotated in on the eastern limb. AR 11711 is large enough to produce M flares and will accompony us appr. until April 12            
APRIL 16/ 20 2013 APRIL 16/ 20 2013: Stronger earthquakes happen regularly immidiately during/ after proton Storms (those themselves likely are also caused by kinds of solar quakes) However, this time I I lifted my Earthquake alert too early ( was corrected today). The current situation is similar to the many massive earthquakes those followed the much stronger proton events after November 2004 and prior to March- 11- 2011, when stronger earthquake activity continued for weeks- after March 11 2011 even for month .. But - due to the lower intensity and duration of the proton storm on April 11- 12- 2013 earthquake magnitudes are at least lower and another quake higher than M 9.0 must likely NO MORE BE EXPECTED with this event. Otherwise - the current earthquake happen on land and not offshore, thus the direct damage can be much higher .                  
APRIL 16. 2013:

An extreme strong M 7.6 Earthquake occure d in the Iran Pakistan border region near to the triple conjunction between the African, Eurasian and Indo- Australian plate. - likely the strongest quake measured there in the last 100 ( or 1000?) years.

                 
APRIL 15- 2013

APRIL 15- 23:30- another but MINOR CME arrived from a filament eruption observed on April- 12

APRIL 14- 19:30 The CME from the LDE event on APR 11 has at least three parts (cluster). A first impact began on APR 13 after 23: 30 UTC, the seocnd , main impact on APR 14 after 10:00 UTC. a third peak began on APR 14 after 17:30 UTC.

The proton storm associated with the solar event decreased again early on April 13 with also the > 10 MeV high speed proton spectrum dropping below the treshold of 100 pfu .

                 
APRIL 13- 14- 2013 The proton storm associated with the solar event decreased again early on April 13 with also the > 10 MeV high speed proton spectrum dropping below the treshold of 100 pfu . Several major earthquakes usually and typically observed when a CME arrival is associated to a proton stormfollowed almost snychronously with thits arrival after 23 UTC and likely will continue on April 14. Its uncertain but POSSIBLE that A HIGH MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE MIGHT OCCURE ON APRIL 14 or 15 exceeding Magnitude M 8.0 (M 8.0 = Tsunami treshold strength!) >                  
April- 06 2013. April- 06 after 06 UTC - 2013- Goes measured a minor solar wind shock. likely the arrival of minor CME- rather a stronger sun wind stream from an C flare in AR 11713 observed on April- 04.The process of tectonic solling down again was interrupted by solar wind streams and particle emissions after April 06                  
April- 05 2013. The stronger contraction earthquakes as expected after the strong proton events and CME on March 15 - 22 have set in with an event related latency, conditioned by the grade of tectonic heating and expansion. Prior seismic volcanic activities as well as typical immidiate effects caused by geomagnetic CME impacts had continued until April 5                  
APRIL- 04- 2013 STRONG SEISMIC TREMORS BEGAN AROUND THE ICELAND REGION REACHING DOWN TO THE NORWEGIAN SEA. THE FIRST STRONG M 5.2 EVENT SEEMS NOT TO BE RELATED TO A SPECIFIC ICELANDIC VOLCANO                  
                     
                     
                     
                     
                     
                     
                     
                     
                     
                     
                     
                     
                     
                     
                     
                     
                     
                     
   

 

 

 

click here to open and close collapsible panel with the archived "SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG" MAY 22- 31- 2013

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

MAY

 

DAY:

31

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 

      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS >  

 

EPICENTER/ MAP TSUNAMI WARNINGS    
Note:, as earthquake data are oftenly revised the next day by EMSC,this section will mostly be completed later this day . ! click here for MEDIA report ISSUED AT:   CANCELLED:  

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS > FOR REGIONS:  

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.8 - NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN - 2013-05-31 13:32:20 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

32.34 N ; 176.80 E

DEPTH >

33 km

WAVE/HEIGHT   FREQUENCY  

 

 

                  note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!  
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0):

 

CONTINENTAL EURASIA INCLUDING ASIA

SELDOM

"E"/"F

MAP 01 EURASIA>< AFRICA >> ARABIA M 5.1 - KHABAROVSKIY KRAY, RUSSIA - 2013-05-31 01:47:16 UTC  

PACIFIC/MAINLY WEST/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC.

FREQUENT

"B"

MAP 02 PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.3 - SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN - 2013-05-31 11:11:11 UTC  

NORTHERN ATLANTIC REGION

MAY- 31- 2013

"E"

MAP

02

N-AMERICA >< AFRICA >< EURASIA M 5.0 - NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN - 2013-05-31 20:25:49 UTC  

KAMCHATKA PENINSULA/ KURIL ISLANDS / JAPAN

FREQUENT

"B"

MAP

01

N-AMERICA >< EURASIA >< PACIFIC><PHIL. M 5.0 - OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN - 2013-05-31 01:46:00 UTC  

WATCHING: EXTRAORDINARY AND NEW EVENTS AND REGIONS:

NUMBER= ALL EVENTS AS LISTED BY EMSC OR USGS

numbered are events > M 2.0 with single events exceeding magnitude M 4.0.

 

CANARY AND AZORES ISLANDS REGION

MAY- 31- 2013

"E"

MAP

02

N-AMERICA >< AFRICA >< EURASIA M 3.2 - CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION - 2013-05-31 04:39:56 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  

 

 
20130529/ 01: 54 UTC 20130531/ 11:39 UTC 20130531/ 20:54 UTC 20130528/ 16:09 UTC 20130531/ 20:13 UTC 20130531/ 11:42 UTC    
   
 
 
 
 
STEREO-"BEHIND" STEREO-"AHEAD" (3) STEREO-"Behind" (4) SDO /AIA-comp (5) SDO /AIA-comp (6) SDO /AIA-comp SoHO/ LASCO C 3 ^strong geomagnetic impact of still unclear source ^C 9 class flare around 20 UTC  
^solar activities May 28- 31- 2013: (1) (4): pass by of asteroid/ other images: minor eruptive events: M flare on May 31 from AR 11760 and 11 558
 
                       

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 

         

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
SOURCES>> NASA/ GOES EUMETSAT METEOSAT (EUROPE)

NOAA/ Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Center

METEOALARM

usno.navy.mil NOAA  

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

appr. GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 
wunderground.com Remnants of Barbara MAY- 25- 2013 EASTERN PACIFIC

25 MPH (-)

94.5° W 

18.5° N

ABOVE SAN ANDRES/ TUXTLA / GUA- NEAR COAST TO GOM

NNW

TD    
wunderground.com Invest 91E MAY- 23- 2013 EASTERN PACIFIC

35 MPH (+)

111.7° W

13.3° N

OFFSHORE/ 600 km SWW OF MANZANILLO / MEXICO

ENE

TD  
                     

VARIOUS REPORTS:_

                   
                           

TORNADOES ACROSS THE US- FLOODINGS AFTER HEAVY RAINS IN GERMANY

     

20130531

  VARIOUS SOURCES  
 

stltoday.com (US): Storm cleanup is slowed by more wind and rain

Heavy rains, high winds hit central Illinois

Tornado hits Oklahoma City area in Plains outbreak

koco.com/ US: Flooding forces evacuation of Crutcho trailer park

----

(the local.de) GERMANY: Floods kill cyclist and block roads

 

 

   
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

58

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

311-403

FLARES >

C

02

 

CH 571

SOUTH

GROWING / DISSOLVING

MAY- 24- 2013

MAY- 29- 30- 2013

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

101.8

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 2.3

 

M

01

 

         

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

07

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

82- 165 nT

CME impact

X

 

 

         

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

           

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS> NONE  
faded (MAY 21)

11750

81 ° - 95° W

11 °  S

DAI/CAO

 

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 

faded (MAY 19)

11752

50 ° - 64° W

17 °  N

CRO/ BXO

MAY- 17

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (EVOLUTION) :

 

faded (MAY 28)

11753

47° - 61° W

14° N

AXX

          ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>>

INCREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
faded (MAY 27)

11754

29° - 43° W

19° S

CRO/ BXO

          LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130421

unclear

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)  
 

11755

54° - 68° W

10° N

AXX/ BXO

 

 

 

 

  PREVIOUS MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130421

20130430 ( MAX)

 
 

11756

73° - 87° W

20° S

HSX/ HAX

       

 

       

 

 

11757

02° E- 12° W

09° S

HSX/ CSO

MAY- 30

       

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
 

11758

25 - 11° E

23° S

AXX/ BXO

JUNE- 01

     

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
faded (MAY 30)

11759

40° - 26° E

09° S

HSX/ BXO

MAY- 31

      *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
 

11760

52 - 38° E

10° N

BXX/ DRO

JUNE- 01

             
 

11761

39° - 25° E

19° S

HXX/ DRO

MAY- 31

             

NEWLY SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

03

 

        INTERPLANETARY. REMARKS    

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

          PROTON FLUX

NORMAL

DECREASING SINCE 20130525- 3 MINOR PEAKS ON 20130528

 

 

 

 

 

      ELECTRON FLUX

NORMAL

latest:MAY-20130522/ 12 UTC(strong increase after eruptive event )- 20130526/00 UTC

 

internal remarks:

 

 

       

 

PROTON STORM ENDED DECREASING INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

 

 
                 

 

 

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M1 event observed at 31/2000Z from Region 1760 (N12E38). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Jun, 02 Jun, 03 Jun).

 

 

TODAY` S EARTH DIRECTED CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME):

this section will always appear, when a significant CME event was noticed and data have to be updated. You find more information about recent CME events in " today`s preliminary report"

 
- NONE YET-                  
   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

           

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130515- 22

int. CME Nr. >>

CME cluster Nr 23 a-d / and 24/13

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS +

N & S AMERICA WEST, CA

MULTIPLE CMEs (CLUSTER) LONGITUDES : 180° W- 120° E

 

ALERT LEVEL

* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

 
EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS (+)

SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS/ TORNADOES(+)

ALASKA/ KAMCHATKA/ JAPAN

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

EURASIA >< PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS (+) ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3) hh

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

SECONDARY REGIONS : CENTERED AT: 33° S- 57° N SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

 

31. MAY 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

CNTR. & E- PACIFIC

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

----------------

LONGITUDES: 180° W- 120° E

 

M 5.5- > 6.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-2 (ELECTRON STORM)

 

INDUCED CURRENTS ()

SOUTH AMERICA/ ALL

AMERICAS >< EURASIA-E >< PACIFIC ><INDO-AUS

 

01. JUNE 2013

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

ATLANTIC /WEST LONGITUDES: 15°W- 120° W

 

M 5.5- >7.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-2 (POSSIBLY RISING?)

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) EURASIA EAST

EURASIA >< AFRICA ><S & N & S AMERICA

 

02. JUNE 2013

 

ELECTRON STORM AFTER PROTON STORM (-)

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS:

 

M 5.5- >6.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-2 (ELECTRONS > LATENCY-prelim.)  

OTHER:

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (-)

GLOBAL *REGIONS> see definition below LONGITUDES : ALL

 

LATENCIES:
 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES (-) ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: UNLIKELY (LATENCY)   EARTHQUAKES DELAYED BY > ACTIVE ELECTRONS PROTON STORM (diminuishing)  

TECTONICS

HEATING UP ( ELECTRON STORM) (+) COOLING DOWN (LATENCY/ ENDING) UNCERTAIN    

 

EFFECTING AS > INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS (PROTONS)  

abbreviations:

(+) means: this activity is INCREASING

(-) means: This activity is DECREASING

  * note: Due to the necessary evaluation of incoming data, NOAA space weasther alerts are oftenly BACKDATED!  
           

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment:

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

QUIET

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

UNSETTLED

 

X RAY EVENT (FLARES)

NONE NONE

 

ACTIVE

  TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION (CME) NONE NONE

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

R= RADIO BLACKOUT

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

NONE

 

MAJOR STORM

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE NONE  

 

INTERNAL REPORT ON SOLAR STORMS:

SOLAR STORMS ARE INTENSIVE PARTICLE EMISSIONS

 

EXPECTED CME IMPACT

3

> 0.8 MeV ELECTRON STORM

> 100.000 < 1.000.000 pfu. (dropping)

> 100.000 < 1.000.000 pfu. (!!) no data from GOES 13  

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (PROT.)

 

> 2.0 MeV ELECTRON STORM

> 10.000 < 100.000 pfu (dropping!) > 10.000 < 100.000 pfu

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

20130524: GOES 13 SUFFERED A MALEFUCTION AFTER THE SAP EVENT.20130530 GOES 13 FUNCTIONS OBVIOUSLY PARTIALLY RESUMED . MALEFUNCTION WAS LIKELY CAUSED BY AN ELECTROMAGNETIC OVERCHARGE   > 10 MeV PROTON STORM > 10 MeV Protons = > 01< 0.1 pfu. > 10 MeV Protons = > 01< 0.1 pfu. .  

EFFECTIVE PROTONS (-)

      GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT SOUTHWARDS (-) EFFECTIVE PROTONS NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS(+) EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS  
   

 

NEUTRONS-P/E SYNTHESIS < -07 > -08 (rising) < -08 > -09 (equal) < significant changes only (no alerts)

 

JUNE- 01- 2013: A sudden stronger GEOMAGNETIC STORM set in late on May 31.

Impact data such as the geomagnetic field that turned southwards with the incident indicate protons as the cause, those might have been emmited by a minor CMEs observed on March 28. Also a RECURRENT HSS wind stream from decaying CH 571 , that was not measurable as it contains mainly proptons might be the reason, though such a feature is not known or described yet. Also solen.info suggests something new - an active region "COROTATING" "with the large Coronal hole CH 571 as the cause. HOWEVER: several major solar impacts followed one another during the last weeks what led todifficult calculabe INTEREFERENCES. So, it is also thinkable that the high amount of > high accelarated electrons ( 3 0.000 pfu on May 31., those accumulated ( as usually) around the Ionosphere after the strongest proton event in the last years on May 23 with more than 1000 pfu.(!!)) needed so long to slow down that much that they are now entering/impacting the geomagnetic field.

MAY- 29: NOAA warns on electron accumulation in the earth near satellite environment ( electron storm)

 
                 

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM * compared to " normal" values INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 423 km/s at 31/1943Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 31/1852Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 31/1710Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 32295 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (01 Jun), quiet to active levels on day two (02 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Jun).

 

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

MAY

 

DAY:

30

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 

      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS >  

 

EPICENTER/ MAP TSUNAMI WARNINGS    
Note:, as earthquake data are oftenly revised the next day by EMSC,this section will mostly be completed later this day . ! click here for MEDIA report ISSUED AT:   CANCELLED:  

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS > FOR REGIONS:  

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.1 - LUZON, PHILIPPINES - 2013-05-30 02:24:16 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

17.76 N ; 120.82 E

DEPTH >

10 km

WAVE/HEIGHT   FREQUENCY  

 

 

                  note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0):NONE

 

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  
   
                       

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 

         

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
SOURCES>> NASA/ GOES EUMETSAT METEOSAT (EUROPE)

NOAA/ Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Center

METEOALARM

usno.navy.mil NOAA  

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

appr. GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Barbara MAY- 25- 2013 EASTERN PACIFIC

50 MPH (+)

93.8° W

17.1° N

ABOVE TUXTLA GUTIERRES/ MEXICO

NNE

TD    
wunderground.com Invest 91E MAY- 23- 2013 EASTERN PACIFIC

35 MPH (+)

111.7° W

13.3° N

OFFSHORE/ 600 km SWW OF MANZANILLO / MEXICO

ENE

TD  
                     

VARIOUS REPORTS:_

                   
                           

HEADLINES- MAY 30- 2013. TORNADOES, NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES

         

20130530

various reports

   
 

Huge waterspout near Dubrovnik, Croatia

Cyclone Ferdo is battering Europe. Rain, thunder showers and temperature drop is affecting Adriatic Sea, as well as some waterspouts. Huge waterspout was seen over sea near city of Dubrovnik, Croatia.>

<< Tornado leaves trail of devastation in Italy

A tornado rips through the Italian township of Cavenago di Brianza, some 15 miles northeast of Milan, overturning lorries and damaging buildings.Some buildings in the industrial area of the town were completely destroyed and several vehicles were overturned by the powerful winds.

(earlier story- May 04 2013) Huge tornado strikes northern Italy

New eruptions recorded at Sakura-jima volcano, Japan

For several days Sakura-jima volcano in Japan has been relatively calm and inactive. That period is now over as the volcano already erupted at least three times on May 30, 2013. A new cycle of increased explosion frequency seems to have started, and those cycles usually last a few days (VD). Sakura-jima is well known for producing violent explosions. ( remarK. Sakura Jima is part of the ASO supervolcano/ hotspot system) >>

   

1,3 Mi. LONG ASTEROID 1998 QE2 PASSING BY THE EARTH ON MAY 31

 

20130530

various reports

NASA  
 

<< NASA Radar Reveals Asteroid Has Its Own Moon

PASADENA, Calif. -- A sequence of radar images of asteroid 1998 QE2 was obtained on the evening of May 29, 2013, by NASA scientists using the 230-foot (70-meter) Deep Space Network antenna at Goldstone, Calif., when the asteroid was about 3.75 million miles (6 million kilometers) from Earth, which is 15.6 lunar distances. The radar imagery revealed that 1998 QE2 is a binary asteroid. In the near-Earth population, about 16 percent of asteroids that are about 655 feet (200 meters) or larger are binary or triple systems. Radar images suggest that the main body, or primary, is approximately 1.7 miles (2.7 kilometers) in diameter and has a rotation period of less than four hours. Also revealed in the radar imagery of 1998 QE2 are several dark surface features that suggest large concavities. The preliminary estimate for the size of the asteroid's satellite, or moon, is approximately 2,000 feet (600 meters) wide. The radar collage covers a little bit more than two hours.The closest approach of the asteroid occurs on May 31 at 1:59 p.m. Pacific (4:59 p.m. Eastern / 20:59 UTC), when the asteroid will get no closer than about 3.6 million miles (5.8 million kilometers), or about 15 times the distance between Earth and the moon. This is the closest approach the asteroid will make to Earth for at least the next two centuries. ...read more...

Hubble reveals the Ring Nebula’s true shape >>

#The Ring Nebula's distinctive shape makes it a popular illustration for astronomy books. But new observations by NASA's Hubble Space Telescope of the glowing gas shroud around an old, dying, sun-like star reveal a new twist. "The nebula is not like a bagel, but rather, it's like a jelly doughnut, because it's filled with material in the middle," said C. Robert O'Dell of Vanderbilt University in Nashville, Tenn.

   

NASA Hosts News and Social Media Events Around this Week's Asteroid Pass

               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

71

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

327-452

FLARES >

C

 

 

CH 571

SOUTH

GROWING / DISSOLVING

MAY- 24- 2013

MAY- 29- 30- 2013

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

104.1

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 2.7

 

M

 

 

CH UNN.

> 60° NORTH

CLOSED

MAY- 18- 2013

MAY- 24- 2013?

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

02

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

80- 105 nT

 

X

 

 

CH UNN.

> 60° SOUTH

CLOSED

MAY- 15- 2013

MAY- 20- 2013?

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

           

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS> NONE  
faded (MAY 21)

11750

81 ° - 95° W

11 °  S

DAI/CAO

 

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 

faded (MAY 19)

11752

50 ° - 64° W

17 °  N

CRO/ BXO

MAY- 17

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (EVOLUTION) :

 

faded (MAY 28)

11753

47° - 61° W

14° N

AXX

          ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>>

LOW

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
faded (MAY 27)

11754

29° - 43° W

19° S

CRO/ BXO

          LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130421

unclear

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)  
 

11755

42° - 56° W

10° N

CRO

 

 

 

 

  PREVIOUS MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130421

20130430 ( MAX)

 
 

11756

59° - 73° W

20° S

CSO/ CAO

       

 

       

 

 

11757

14° - 00° E

09° S

HSX/ CSO

MAY- 30

       

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
 

11758

36 - 22° E

23° S

AXX/ BXO

JUNE- 01

     

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
 

11759

40° - 26° E

09° S

HSX/ BXO

MAY- 31

      *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
NEWLY EMERGED >

11760

65 - 51° E

10° N

AXX/ BXO

JUNE- 01

             
NEWLY EMERGED >

11761

53° - 39° E

19° S

HXX/ CRO

MAY- 31

             

NEWLY SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

04

 

        INTERPLANETARY. REMARKS    

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

          PROTON FLUX

NORMAL

DECREASING SINCE 20130525- 3 MINOR PEAKS ON 20130528

 

 

 

 

 

      ELECTRON FLUX

NORMAL

latest:MAY-20130522/ 12 UTC(strong increase after eruptive event )- 20130526/00 UTC

 

internal remarks:

 

 

       

 

PROTON STORM ENDED DECREASING INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

 

 
                 

 

 

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 29/2236Z from Region 1760 (N12E51). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 May, 01 Jun, 02 Jun).

 

 

TODAY` S EARTH DIRECTED CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME):

this section will always appear, when a significant CME event was noticed and data have to be updated. You find more information about recent CME events in " today`s preliminary report"

 
- NONE YET-                  
   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

           

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130515- 22

int. CME Nr. >>

CME cluster Nr 23 a-d / and 24/13

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS +

N & S AMERICA WEST, CA

MULTIPLE CMEs (CLUSTER) LONGITUDES : 180° W- 120° E

 

ALERT LEVEL

* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

 
EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS (+)

SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS/ TORNADOES(+)

ALASKA/ KAMCHATKA/ JAPAN

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

EURASIA >< PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS (+) ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3) hh

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

SECONDARY REGIONS : CENTERED AT: 33° S- 57° N SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

 

30. MAY 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

CNTR. & E- PACIFIC

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

----------------

LONGITUDES: 180° W- 120° E

 

M 5.5- > 6.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-2 (ELECTRON STORM)

 

INDUCED CURRENTS(+)

SOUTH AMERICA/ ALL

AMERICAS >< EURASIA-E >< PACIFIC ><INDO-AUS

 

31. MAY 2013

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

ATLANTIC /WEST LONGITUDES: 15°W- 120° W

 

M 5.5- > 6.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-2 (ELECTRON STORM)

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) EURASIA EAST

EURASIA >< AFRICA ><S & N & S AMERICA

 

01. JUNE 2013

 

ELECTRON STORM AFTER PROTON STORM (+)

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS:

 

M 5.5- >6.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-2 (ELECTRONS > LATENCY-prelim.)  

OTHER:

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (-)

GLOBAL *REGIONS> see definition below LONGITUDES : ALL

 

LATENCIES:
 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES (-) ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: UNLIKELY (LATENCY)   EARTHQUAKES DELAYED BY > ACTIVE ELECTRONS PROTON STORM (diminuishing)  

TECTONICS

HEATING UP ( ELECTRON STORM) (+) COOLING DOWN (LATENCY/ ENDING) UNCERTAIN    

 

EFFECTING AS > INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS (PROTONS)  

abbreviations:

(+) means: this activity is INCREASING

(-) means: This activity is DECREASING

  * note: Due to the necessary evaluation of incoming data, NOAA space weasther alerts are oftenly BACKDATED!  
           

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment:

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

QUIET

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

UNSETTLED

 

X RAY EVENT (FLARES)

NONE NONE

 

ACTIVE

  TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION (CME) NONE NONE

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

R= RADIO BLACKOUT

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

NONE

 

MAJOR STORM

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE NONE  

 

INTERNAL REPORT ON SOLAR STORMS:

SOLAR STORMS ARE INTENSIVE PARTICLE EMISSIONS

 

EXPECTED CME IMPACT

3

> 0.8 MeV ELECTRON STORM

> 100.000 < 1.000.000 pfu. (!!)

> 100.000 < 1.000.000 pfu. (!!) no data from GOES 13  

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (PROT.)

 

> 2.0 MeV ELECTRON STORM

> 10.000 < 100.000 pfu > 10.000 < 100.000 pfu

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

20130524: GOES 13 OBVIOUSLY SUFFERED A MALEFUNCTION OR DAMAGE GOES 13 OBVIOUSLY SUFFERED A MALEFUNCTION OR DAMAGE/ GOES 15 IS STILL ONLINE   > 10 MeV PROTON STORM > 10 MeV Protons = > 01< 0.1 pfu. > 10 MeV Protons = > 01< 0.1 pfu. .  

EFFECTIVE PROTONS (-)

      GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT SOUTHWARDS (-) EFFECTIVE PROTONS NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS(+) EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS  
   

 

NEUTRONS-P/E SYNTHESIS < -08 > -09 (equal) < -08 > -09 (rising) < significant changes only (no alerts)

 

                 

GENERAL REMARKS TO THE LONG TERM EFFECTS OF SOLAR PROTON EVENTS/ STORMS ( by: alien-homepage.de) : : Several strong earthquakes happen regularly immidiately during/ after Proton Storms (those themselves likely are also caused by kinds of solar quakes. Otherwise during that first phase, more exactly: DURING the proton storms when proton flux is elavated- as a typical antienergetic effect Protons have, everything that requires cinetic energies to work such as storms or volcanic activities are rather very low. Entire storms systems as statistics indicate seem to can come to a stillstand by such a proton impact. Other data show that protons can even swallow electrons ( memory charges) from harddiscs as more as if these ar plugged to the grid or connected to the web. and surely proton storms do interrupt all kinds of radio transmissions. After the proton storm itself has decreased regularly an electron storms sets in that last again for some days. During that time, all kind of cinetic effects set in: Mainly sudden thundestorms, and increasing volcano activities preferently those of hot spot volcanoes. Induced currents effecting down to the Earth surface with potential of heavy damage to power grids are seldom, but TYPICALLY OCCURE ESPECIALLY AFTER PROTON EVENTS when the proton and succeeding electron storms( impact reaches certain strength. This phase now last normally not more than 10 days until the affected tectonic plates would cool down again and contract, what leads to the second and final phase with the chance for another STRONG EARTHQUAKES. The described single phase are prolongued amplified or mindered WHEN NEW CME events occure , those might contain more protons or electrons. Its hardly then to forecast but current data show, that by the fact that protons shift the geomagnetic charge temporarely to positive values, that short circuit that lets flow solar energies right through the magnetic field lines (MPI MUnich) into the Earth core, the Earth can likely sum up and even store these energies for a long time ( by forming neutrons) what includes the risk of a concentrated energetic breakouts in different forms.

 

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM * compared to " normal" values INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 468 km/s at 29/2151Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 35365 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (31 May), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (01 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Jun).

 

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

MAY

 

DAY:

29

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 

      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS >  

 

EPICENTER/ MAP TSUNAMI WARNINGS    
Note:, as earthquake data are oftenly revised the next day by EMSC,this section will mostly be completed later this day . ! click here for MEDIA report ISSUED AT:   CANCELLED:  

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS > FOR REGIONS:  

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.2 - PRINCE EDWARD ISLANDS REGION - 2013-05-29 14:47:31 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

47.01 S ; 33.42 E

DEPTH >

2 km

WAVE/HEIGHT   FREQUENCY  

 

 

                  note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0): NONE

 

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  

 

   
CH and AR on 20130529   20130528/ 00:10 UTC 20130529/ 07:14 UTC        
         
 
 
 
 
STARMAP by solen..info STEREO-"AHEAD" (3) STEREO-"Behind" (4) SDO /AIA-comp (5) SDO /AIA-comp (6) SDO /AIA-comp SoHO/ LASCO C 3      

AR 11756 continued to produce some filament activities and short minor proton flares on May 28 and 29 . The strongest was a C2.3 class LDE proton flare on 20130529 peaking around 22:30 UTC. Only minor proton emissions ( 5 short peaks on May 28- 29 ) were observed those nevertheless had effects on the geomagnetic field ( geomagnetic depression) and lowered the geomagnetic field density to values > 80 <100 nT. The large transequatorial Coronal Hole CH 751 comes in a central position from MAY 29- 30- 2013 and could influence the global weather in terms of lower temperatures.

 
               

 

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. Eventual Media reports will be posted in section "various reports"

< stats

 

This section therefor can only refer to changes in "ALERT LEVELS" as published by GVP. Click on the buttons (right) to find more detailled internal reports: volcano watch (global statistics) and regional volcano maps (all volcanoes worldwide and current activities)

maps >

 
volcano-discovery/gadget

note: this report does NOT necessarely represent all currently global active volcanoes!

     

 

report by:

GVP  

 

22 May-29 May 2013

Chirinkotan Kuril Islands (New)- Cleveland Aleutian Islands (New)- Copahue Central Chile and Argentina (New)- Gamkonora Halmahera (New) Pavlof Alaska Peninsula (New)- Popocatépetl México (New )Turrialba Costa Rica (New)

Bagana Bougainville and Solomon Islands (Ongoing)- KarymskyKamchatka Peninsula (Ongoing)- Kilauea Hawaiian Islands (Ongoing)- Kizimen Kamchatka Peninsula (Ongoing) Pacaya Guatemala (Ongoing)- Paluweh Lesser Sunda Islands (Ongoing)- Sakura-jima Ryukyu Islands and Kyushu (Ongoing) Sakura-jima Ryukyu Islands and Kyushu (Ongoing) Sangay Ecuador (Ongoing)- Shiveluch Kamchatka Peninsula (Ongoing)- Tolbachik Kamchatka Peninsula (Ongoing)- Yasur Vanuatu (Ongoing)

 
         

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
SOURCES>> NASA/ GOES EUMETSAT METEOSAT (EUROPE)

NOAA/ Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Center

METEOALARM

usno.navy.mil NOAA  

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

appr. GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Barbara MAY- 25- 2013 EASTERN PACIFIC 45 MPH (+)

95.7° W

14.5° N

OFFSHORE/ 150km S OF OAXACA/ MEXICO/ LANDFALL SOON! NNE TD    
wunderground.com Invest 91E MAY- 23- 2013 EASTERN PACIFIC 35 MPH (+)

114.2° W

11.4° N

OFFSHORE/ 800 km SW OF GUADALAJARA / MEXICO N TD  
                     
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

83

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

439-596

FLARES >

C

03

 

CH 571

SOUTH

GROWING / DISSOLVING

MAY- 24- 2013

MAY- 29- 30- 2013

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

106.9

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 2.7

 

M

 

 

CH UNN.

> 60° NORTH

DECAYING

MAY- 18- 2013

MAY- 24- 2013?

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

1

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

80- 100 nT

MINOR PROTON CMEs

X

 

 

CH UNN.

> 60° SOUTH

CLOSING

MAY- 15- 2013

MAY- 20- 2013?

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

           

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS> NONE  
rotated out >

11748

     

 

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 

rotated out >

11749

78 ° - 92° W

23 °  S

BXO

 

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (EVOLUTION) :

 

faded (MAY 21)

11750

81 ° - 95° W

11 °  S

DAI/CAO

 

        ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>>

LOW

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
faded (MAY 19)

11752

50 ° - 64° W

17 °  N

CRO/ BXO

MAY- 17

        LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130421

unclear

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)  
 

11753

47° - 61° W

14° N

AXX

 

 

 

 

  PREVIOUS MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130421

20130430 ( MAX)

 
faded (MAY 27)

11754

29° - 43° W

19° S

CRO/ BXO

       

 

       

 

 

11755

29° - 43° W

10° N

CSO/ CRO

         

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
 

11756

44° - 58° W

20° S

CSO

       

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
 

11757

28° - 14° E

09° S

HSX/ HAX

MAY- 30

      *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
 

11758

48 - 34° E

23° S

HSX/ CRO

JUNE- 01

             
 

11759

55° - 41° E

09° S

HSX/ AXX

MAY- 31

             

NEWLY SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

04

 

        INTERPLANETARY. REMARKS    

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

          PROTON FLUX

HIGHER

20130524 continuing minor proton flares from AR 11756

 

 

 

 

^CME Nr.

      ELECTRON FLUX

NORMAL

latest:MAY-20130522/ 12 UTC(strong increase after eruptive event )- 20130526/00 UTC

 

internal remarks:

 

 

       

 

PROTON STORM ENDED DECREASING INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

 

 
                 

 

 

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 29/0218Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 May, 31 May, 01 Jun).

 

 

TODAY` S EARTH DIRECTED CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME):

this section will always appear, when a significant CME event was noticed and data have to be updated. You find more information about recent CME events in " today`s preliminary report"

 
- NONE YET-                  
   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

           

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130515- 22

int. CME Nr. >>

CME cluster Nr 23 a-d / and 24/13

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS +

N & S AMERICA WEST, CA

MULTIPLE CMEs (CLUSTER) LONGITUDES : 180° W- 120° E

 

ALERT LEVEL

* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

 
EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS (+)

SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS/ TORNADOES(+)

ALASKA/ KAMCHATKA/ JAPAN

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

EURASIA >< PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS (+) ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3) hh

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

SECONDARY REGIONS : CENTERED AT: 33° S- 57° N SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

 

29. MAY 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

CNTR. & E- PACIFIC

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

----------------

LONGITUDES: 180° W- 120° E

 

M 5.5- > 6.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-2 (ELECTRON STORM)

 

INDUCED CURRENTS(+)

SOUTH AMERICA/ ALL

AMERICAS >< EURASIA-E >< PACIFIC ><INDO-AUS

 

30. MAY 2013

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

ATLANTIC /WEST LONGITUDES: 15°W- 120° W

 

M 5.5- > 6.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-2 (ELECTRON STORM)

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) EURASIA EAST

EURASIA >< AFRICA ><S & N & S AMERICA

 

31. MAY 2013

 

ELECTRON STORM AFTER PROTON STORM (+)

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS:

 

M 5.5- >6.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-2 (ELECTRONS > LATENCY-prelim.)  

OTHER:

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (-)

GLOBAL *REGIONS> see definition below LONGITUDES : ALL

 

LATENCIES:
 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES (-) ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: UNLIKELY (LATENCY)   EARTHQUAKES DELAYED BY > ACTIVE ELECTRONS PROTON STORM (diminuishing)  

TECTONICS

HEATING UP ( ELECTRON STORM) (+) COOLING DOWN (LATENCY/ ENDING) UNCERTAIN    

 

EFFECTING AS > INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS (PROTONS)  

abbreviations:

(+) means: this activity is INCREASING

(-) means: This activity is DECREASING

  * note: Due to the necessary evaluation of incoming data, NOAA space weasther alerts are oftenly BACKDATED!  
           

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment:

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

QUIET

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

UNSETTLED

 

X RAY EVENT (FLARES)

NONE NONE

 

ACTIVE

  TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION (CME) NONE NONE

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

R= RADIO BLACKOUT

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

NONE

 

MAJOR STORM

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE NONE  

 

INTERNAL REPORT ON SOLAR STORMS:

SOLAR STORMS ARE INTENSIVE PARTICLE EMISSIONS

 

EXPECTED CME IMPACT

3

> 0.8 MeV ELECTRON STORM

> 100.000 < 1.000.000 pfu. (!!)

> 10.000 < 100.000 pfu. no data from GOES 13  

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (PROT.)

 

> 2.0 MeV ELECTRON STORM

> 10.000 < 100.000 pfu > 1000 < 10000 pfu

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

20130524: GOES 13 OBVIOUSLY SUFFERED A MALEFUNCTION OR DAMAGE GOES 13 OBVIOUSLY SUFFERED A MALEFUNCTION OR DAMAGE/ GOES 15 IS STILL ONLINE decreasing > 10 MeV PROTON STORM > 10 MeV Protons = > 01< 0.1 pfu. > 10 MeV Protons = > 01< 0.1 pfu. .  

EFFECTIVE PROTONS (-)

      GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT SOUTHWARDS (-) EFFECTIVE PROTONS NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS(+) EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS  
   

 

NEUTRONS-P/E SYNTHESIS < -08 > -09 (rising) < -08 > -10 (rising) < significant changes only (no alerts)

 

                 

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM * compared to " normal" values INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 632 km/s at 28/2350Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 38236 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (30 May, 31 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Jun).

 

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

MAY

 

DAY:

28

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 

      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS >  

 

EPICENTER/ MAP TSUNAMI WARNINGS    
Note:, as earthquake data are oftenly revised the next day by EMSC,this section will mostly be completed later this day . ! click here for MEDIA report ISSUED AT:   CANCELLED:  

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS > FOR REGIONS:  

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.2 - GEORGIA (SAK'ART'VELO) - 2013-05-28 00:09:52 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

43.22 N ; 41.58 E

DEPTH >

2 km

WAVE/HEIGHT   FREQUENCY  

 

 

                  note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!  
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0):

 

PACIFIC/MAINLY WEST/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC.

FREQUENT

"B"

MAP

02

PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.0 - OFF E. COAST OF N. ISLAND, N.Z. - 2013-05-28 06:59:44 UTC  

KAMCHATKA PENINSULA/ KURIL ISLANDS / JAPAN

FREQUENT

"B"

MAP

01

N-AMERICA >< EURASIA >< PACIFIC><PHIL. M 5.1 - NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN - 2013-05-28 19:24:25 UTC  

KAMCHATKA PENINSULA/ EARTHWQUAKE SWARM

FREQUENT

"B"

MAP

04

N-AMERICA >< EURASIA >< PACIFIC><PHIL. M 5.2 - NEAR EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA - 2013-05-28 16:25:33 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  
               

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD. STRONGEST ELECTRON " INVASION" RECORDED EVER?

             

With the largest and yet strongest PROTON storm in tha last two years that began on May 22. first protons (hydrogen cores from hydrogenplasma blown apart during that strongest known solar eruption type ) had been accelerated almost to the (record!) speed of light, while their electron antagonists were left behind and arrived hours and days later. Itsby the way interesting that nothing seems to be capable really to destroy the magnetic forces between the 1 electron and 1 proton inb that smallest known basic element permanently and to seperate the two antagonists in hydrogen atom permanently. Its obviously some kind of physical law, that everything in universe tries to to get back to a neutral state again.

The fast protons become slower then inside the geomag field until they can react with geomagnetic electrons to neutrons ( forming isotopes later) . This reaction however creates a temporary positive charge by which the later arrived electrons of the solar eruption clue on the geomagnetic field until they have lost enough cinetic energy also to enter the geomagnetic field . This is then not al solar electron storm but a geomagnetic one. However- equivalent to the strongest proton storm (> 1000 pfu!) measured at least in the last 2 years, the subsequent electron storm (that is PURE ELECTRICITY!)also beats all records with > 2.0 MeV electron currently between 10.0000 - 1000.000 pfu. NOAAby default only concentrating on effects on satellites warns of " electron accumulation ( also known as static electricity), however issued no statement yet, why GOES 13 is out of service since May 24 and would be the second GOES satellite damaged or destroyed by solar influences in this 24 solar cycle max. >

Since the proton storm ended on May 27, when the Bz component was mainly (-) Southwards , the bz component is currently directed mainy Northwards (+) caused by electron those clue on the geomag field after the proton storm. The NOAA/ USAF report ( see below) however focusses on the southward Bz components as the indicator of geoeffective CMEs. Several minor B class PROTON flares were observed on May 27 in AR 11756 and impacted (almost invisibly on GOES) on May 28 and 29 and caused minor "geomagnetic depression.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

GOES 15 ( GOES 13 out of service): electron activity within the geomagnetic field ( > 2.0 MeV electrons higher >10.000 < 100.000 pfu on May 26- 28- 2013)

^SoHO solar wind date on 20130529.. The BZ component is directed mainly northwards ( +) since May 28, when the protons storm ended and the electron storm began

 
   
                       

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 

         

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
SOURCES>> NASA/ GOES EUMETSAT METEOSAT (EUROPE)

NOAA/ Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Center

METEOALARM

usno.navy.mil NOAA  

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

appr. GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 
wunderground.com Invest 92E MAY- 25- 2013 EASTERN PACIFIC 30 MPH ()

95.9° W

13.5° N

OFFSHORE/ 180km SW OF OAXACA/ MEXICO WNW TD    
wunderground.com Invest 91E MAY- 23- 2013 EASTERN PACIFIC 25 MPH ()

113.2° W

10.4° N

OFFSHORE/ 800 km SW OF GUADALAJARA / MEXICO WSW TD  
                     

VARIOUS REPORTS:_

                   
                           

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES- MAY- 29- 2013

         

20130529

report by:

volcanodiscovery  
Mount Nyiragongo

Yasur (Tanna Island, Vanuatu): Explosive (strombolian) activity level has been increasing recently, the latest bulletin of Geohazard today indicates. The alert level remains at 2, but an increase to 3 is possible in the near future.

Pavlov (Alaska Peninsula, USA): The eruption might have ended already, or is at least pausing for the moment. Over the past few days, the eruptive and seismic activity have greatly declined, the Alaska Volcano Observatory reports

Nevado del Ruiz (Colombia): Small earthquake swarms at shallow depth continue to plague the volcano. They suggest ongoing (small) magmatic intrusions.
The other 5 volcanoes in Colombia currently on alert have not shown significant variations in activity (Galeras: degassing, occasional small ash venting, Cumbal, Machin, Sotará: seismic unrest but no surface activity, Nevado del Huila: degassing/steaming).

Nyiragongo (DRCongo): A significant SO2 plume is visible today on NOAA satellite data, suggesting continuing lava lake activity at the volcano. Unfortunately, security issues in the Goma-Virunga area continue to prevent us from organizing expeditions for the time being.

...read more...

Mount Yasur  
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

75

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

580-889

FLARES >

C

 

 

CH 571

SOUTH

GROWING

MAY- 24- 2013

MAY- 29- 30- 2013

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

104.8

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 2.6

 

M

 

 

CH UNN.

> 60° NORTH

DECAYING

MAY- 18- 2013

MAY- 24- 2013?

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

06

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

60- 90 nT

 

X

 

 

CH UNN.

> 60° SOUTH

partially reermerged

MAY- 15- 2013

MAY- 20- 2013?

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

           

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS> NONE  
rotated out >

11748

     

 

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 

rotated out >

11749

78 ° - 92° W

23 °  S

BXO

 

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (EVOLUTION) :

 

faded (MAY 21)

11750

81 ° - 95° W

11 °  S

DAI/CAO

 

        ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>>

LOW

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
faded (MAY 19)

11752

50 ° - 64° W

17 °  N

CRO/ BXO

MAY- 17

        LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130421

unclear

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)  
 

11753

35° - 49° W

14° N

BXO

 

 

 

 

  PREVIOUS MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130421

20130430 ( MAX)

 
faded (MAY 27)

11754

29° - 43° W

19° S

CRO/ BXO

       

 

       

 

 

11755

15° - 29° W

10° N

DAO/ DSO

         

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
 

11756

30° - 44° W

20° S

FSO

       

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
 

11757

42° - 56° E

09° S

HSX/ CSO

MAY- 30

      *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
 

11758

61° - 47° E

23° S

HSX/ HRX

MAY- 31

             
NEWLY EMERGED

11759

68° - 54° E

09° S

BXO/ HRX

MAY- 31

             

NEWLY SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

03

 

        INTERPLANETARY. REMARKS    

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

          PROTON FLUX

HIGHER

20130524 continuing minor proton flares from AR 11756

 

 

 

 

^CME Nr.

      ELECTRON FLUX

NORMAL

latest:MAY-20130522/ 12 UTC(strong increase after eruptive event )- 20130526/00 UTC

 

internal remarks:

 

 

       

 

PROTON STORM ENDED DECREASING INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

 

 
                 

 

 

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 May, 30 May, 31 May).

 

 

TODAY` S EARTH DIRECTED CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME):

this section will always appear, when a significant CME event was noticed and data have to be updated. You find more information about recent CME events in " today`s preliminary report"

 
- NONE YET-                  
   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

           

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130515- 22

int. CME Nr. >>

CME cluster Nr 23 a-d / and 24/13

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS +

N & S AMERICA WEST, CA

MULTIPLE CME CLUSTER LONGITUDES : 180° W- 120° E

 

ALERT LEVEL

* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

 
EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS (+)

SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS/ TORNADOES(+)

ALASKA/ KAMCHATKA/ JAPAN

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

EURASIA >< PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS (+) ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3) hh

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

SECONDARY REGIONS : CENTERED AT: 33° S- 57° N SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

 

28. MAY 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

CNTR. & E- PACIFIC

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

----------------

LONGITUDES: 180° W- 120° E

 

M 5.5- > 6.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-2 (ELECTRON STORM)

 

INDUCED CURRENTS(+)

SOUTH AMERICA/ ALL

AMERICAS >< EURASIA-E >< PACIFIC ><INDO-AUS

 

29. MAY 2013

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

ATLANTIC /WEST LONGITUDES: 15°W- 120° W

 

M 5.5- > 6.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-2 (ELECTRON STORM)

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) EURASIA EAST

EURASIA >< AFRICA ><S & N & S AMERICA

 

30. MAY 2013

 

ELECTRON STORM AFTER PROTON STORM (+)

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS:

 

M 5.5- >6.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-2 (ELECTRONS > LATENCY-prelim.)  

OTHER:

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (-)

GLOBAL *REGIONS> see definition below LONGITUDES : ALL

 

LATENCIES:
 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES (-) ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: UNLIKELY (LATENCY)   EARTHQUAKES DELAYED BY > ACTIVE ELECTRONS PROTON STORM (diminuishing)  

TECTONICS

HEATING UP ( ELECTRON STORM) (+) COOLING DOWN (LATENCY/ ENDING) UNCERTAIN    

 

EFFECTING AS > INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS (PROTONS)  

abbreviations:

(+) means: this activity is INCREASING

(-) means: This activity is DECREASING

  * note: Due to the necessary evaluation of incoming data, NOAA space weasther alerts are oftenly BACKDATED!  
           

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment:

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

QUIET

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

UNSETTLED

 

X RAY EVENT (FLARES)

NONE NONE

 

ACTIVE

  TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION (CME) NONE NONE

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

R= RADIO BLACKOUT

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

NONE

 

MAJOR STORM

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE NONE  

 

INTERNAL REPORT ON SOLAR STORMS:

SOLAR STORMS ARE INTENSIVE PARTICLE EMISSIONS

 

EXPECTED CME IMPACT

3

> 0.8 MeV ELECTRON STORM

> 10.000 < 100.000 pfu.

> 10.000 < 100.000 pfu. no data from GOES 13  

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (PROT.)

 

> 2.0 MeV ELECTRON STORM

> 1000 < 10000 pfu > 1000 < 10000 pfu

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

20130524: GOES 13 OBVIOUSLY SUFFERED A MALEFUNCTION OR DAMAGE GOES 13 OBVIOUSLY SUFFERED A MALEFUNCTION OR DAMAGE/ GOES 15 IS STILL ONLINE decreasing > 10 MeV PROTON STORM > 10 MeV Protons = > 01< 0.1 pfu. > 10 MeV Protons = > 01< 0.1 pfu. .  

EFFECTIVE PROTONS (-)

      GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT SOUTHWARDS (-) EFFECTIVE PROTONS NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS(+) EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS  
   

 

NEUTRONS-P/E SYNTHESIS < -08 > -10 (rising) < -10 > -11 (rising) < significant changes only (no alerts)

 

                 

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM * compared to " normal" values INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 846 km/s at 28/0351Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/2240Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 28/0133Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 49652 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (29 May, 30 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (31 May).

 

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

MAY

 

DAY:

27

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 

      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS >  

 

EPICENTER/ MAP TSUNAMI WARNINGS    
Note:, as earthquake data are oftenly revised the next day by EMSC,this section will mostly be completed later this day . ! click here for MEDIA report ISSUED AT:   CANCELLED:  

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS > FOR REGIONS:  

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.8 - OWEN FRACTURE ZONE REGION - 2013-05-27 03:36:31 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

14.64 N ; 53.80 E

DEPTH >

8 km

WAVE/HEIGHT   FREQUENCY  

 

 

                  note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!  
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0):

 

KAMCHATKA PENINSULA/ CONTIN. EARTHQUAKE SWARM

FREQUENT

"B"

MAP

03

N-AMERICA >< EURASIA >< PACIFIC><PHIL. M 5.5 - OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA - 2013-05-27 20:22:04 UTC  

PANAMERICA

FREQUENT SINCE 2012

"D"

MAP

01

N & SOUTH AMERICA >< COCOS M 5.7 - PANAMA-COSTA RICA BORDER REGION - 2013-05-27 09:41:14 UTC  

PACIFIC/MAINLY WEST/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC.

FREQUENT

"B"

MAP

01

PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.3 - NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G. - 2013-05-27 11:29:29 UTC  

REGION INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES/ INDIA

FREQUENT

"A"

MAP

01

EURASIA >< / INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.0 - SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA - 2013-05-27 00:06:10 UTC  

WATCHING: EXTRAORDINARY AND NEW EVENTS AND REGIONS:

NUMBER= ALL EVENTS AS LISTED BY EMSC OR USGS

numbered are events > M 2.0 with single events exceeding magnitude M 4.0.

 

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  

 

 
20130527/ 09:54 UTC 20130527/ 09:39 UTC   CH AND AR ON 20130527:   20130527/ 02:13 UTC 20130527/ 09:18 UTC  
     
 
 
 
 
STEREO-"BEHIND" STEREO-"AHEAD" (3) STEREO-"Behind" STAR MAP by: solen.info (5) SDO /AIA-comp (6) SDO /AIA-comp SoHO/ LASCO C 3      

Sun spot number and X ray background activity has decreased within the usual fluctuations of 14- 20 days resp. since since AR 11754 unleashed the latest larger strong M 5 proton flare on May 22. After AR 11745 had rotated out, AR 11756 became the largest and most active region , but produces only B class flares those neverthelesss are again or still PROTON flares (see ACE graph right side) . Its quite normal that these seldom proton events are rather frequent during the last year with the 11 years maximum . There are no complete data available over the last maximas such as 1990. 2001 to conclude, whether especially these activities have increased over the last cycles. Total CME and sunwind activity as measured by ACE - the only available data about solar eruptions until 2010 was the only factor that has steadily increased since the end of the 90th when ACE began to analyse solar wind emissions. Sun spot number and x ray background activity however INCREASES prior to solar eruptions and decreases after these produced energies were unleashed into space by CMEs..

 
                       

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 

         

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
SOURCES>> NASA/ GOES EUMETSAT METEOSAT (EUROPE)

NOAA/ Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Center

METEOALARM

usno.navy.mil NOAA  

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

appr. GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 
wunderground.com Invest 92E MAY- 25- 2013 EASTERN PACIFIC 30 MPH (+)

94.9° W

12.9° N

OFFSHORE/ 200km SW OF GUATEMALA W TD    
wunderground.com Invest 91E MAY- 23- 2013 EASTERN PACIFIC 25 MPH ()

112.0° W 

11.4° N

OFFSHORE/ 700 km SW OF GUADALAJARA / MEXICO W TD  
                     

VARIOUS REPORTS:_

                   
                           
        20130527 report by:

.volcanodiscovery.

report by:

 
 

Volcanic activity worldwide 27 May 2013

Gamkonora (Halmahera): Increased earthquake activity has triggered an eruption alert by VSI, who raised the volcano's status to 3 ("Siaga", "warning") out of 4 this morning. 

Pavlov (Alaska Peninsula, USA): The eruption continues at low levels (both as surface lava emission and seismic activity).

Popocatépetl (Central Mexico): The volcano's activity has been reduced compared to a week ago, but still produces occasional explosions with plumes of up to 2 km in height, and many smaller emissions, accompanied by low-level harmonic tremor and a continuous steam plume rising about 1 km.

Telica (Nicaragua): Seismic activity is on the increase again since about 24 May, but still far from the earthquake swarm earlier this year.

Sabancaya (Peru): The volcano has remained quiet, but is still showing signs of unrest. IGP scientists found evidence of eruptive activity (no fresh lava or pyroclastic deposits) inside the crater of of the volcano during a helicopter survey on 21 May

Copahue volcano (Chile): alert status raised to red - eruption alert An eruption of the volcano could be imminent. SERNAGEOMIN and Civil Protection have raised the alert level to "red", based on the increasing earthquake activity under the volcano

..read more...

M8.3 - Sea of Okhotsk- 2013-05-24 05:44:49 UTC

Tectonic Summary The May 24, 2013 Mw 8.3 earthquake beneath the Sea of Okhotsk, Russia, occurred as a result of normal faulting at a depth of approximately 600 km. At the latitude of this earthquake, the Pacific and North America plates are converging at a rate of approximately 78 mm/yr in a west-northwest – east-southeast direction, resulting in the subduction of the Pacific plate beneath Eurasia at the Kuril-Kamchatka trench. Note that some authors divide this region into several microplates that together define the relative motions between the larger Pacific, North America and Eurasia plates; these include the Okhotsk and Amur microplates that are respectively part of North America and Eurasia. The depth and faulting mechanism of the May 24 earthquake indicate that it ruptured a fault deep within the subducting Pacific lithosphere rather than on the shallow thrust interface between the two plates.

Russian Earthquake Could Be Deepest Ever

 

 

MODIS`S LAST IMPRESSIONS:

         
 
^WILDLIFE AND HUMAN NEEDS COLLIDE IN SOUTHERN INDIA ^PLANKTON BLOOM, BLACK SEA ^ARCTIC AMPLIFICATION  
                     
   

 

               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

87

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

605-872

FLARES >

C

 

 

CH 571

SOUTH

GROWING

MAY- 24- 2013

MAY- 29- 30- 2013

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

110.1

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 3.1

 

M

 

 

CH UNN.

> 60° NORTH

DECAYING

MAY- 18- 2013

MAY- 24- 2013?

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

13

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

60- 105 nT

 

X

 

 

CH UNN.

> 60° SOUTH

partially reermerged

MAY- 15- 2013

MAY- 20- 2013?

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

           

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS> HIGH CH UNN./ CME?
faded (MAY 21)

11747

44 ° - 58° W

18 °  S

HRX/ CRO

 

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 

rotated out >

11748

     

 

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (EVOLUTION) :

 

rotated out >

11749

78 ° - 92° W

23 °  S

BXO

 

        ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>> LOW

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
faded (MAY 21)

11750

81 ° - 95° W

11 °  S

DAI/CAO

 

        LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130421

unclear

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)  
faded (MAY 19)

11752

50 ° - 64° W

17 °  N

CRO/ BXO

MAY- 17

 

 

 

  PREVIOUS MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130421

20130430 ( MAX)

 
 

11753

22° - 36° W

14° N

BXO

       

 

       

 

 

11754

29° - 43° W

19° S

CRO/ BXO

         

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
 

11755

01° - 15° W

10° N

DAI/ DSI

       

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
 

11756

13° - 27° W

20° S

EHI/ FSI (beta-gamma)

        *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
 

11757

55° - 41° E

09° S

HSX

MAY- 30

             
NEWLY EMERGED

11758

75° - 61° E

23° S

AXX/ HSX

MAY- 31

             

NEWLY SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

03

 

        INTERPLANETARY. REMARKS    

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

          PROTON FLUX

LOW

latest: begin: 20130522/ 12 UTC- dropping since 20130525( 10 UTC

 

 

 

 

^CME Nr.

      ELECTRON FLUX

NORMAL

latest:MAY-20130522/ 12 UTC(strong increase after eruptive event )- 20130526/00 UTC

 

internal remarks:

 

 

       

 

PROTON STORM ENDED DECREASING INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

 

 
                 

 

 

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 26/2147Z from Region 1756 (S20W26). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 May, 29 May, 30 May).

 

 

TODAY` S EARTH DIRECTED CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME):

this section will always appear, when a significant CME event was noticed and data have to be updated. You find more information about recent CME events in " today`s preliminary report"

 
- NONE YET-                  
   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

           

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130515- 22

int. CME Nr. >>

CME cluster Nr 23 a-d / and 24/13

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS +

N & S AMERICA WEST, CA

MULTIPLE CME CLUSTER LONGITUDES : 180° W- 120° E

 

ALERT LEVEL

* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

 
EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS (+)

SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS/ TORNADOES(+)

ALASKA/ KAMCHATKA/ JAPAN

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

EURASIA >< PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS (+) ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3) hh

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

SECONDARY REGIONS : CENTERED AT: 33° S- 57° N SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

27. MAY 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

CNTR. & E- PACIFIC

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

----------------

LONGITUDES: 180° W- 120° E

 

M 5.5- > 6.5 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-2 (ELECTRON STORM)

 

INDUCED CURRENTS(+)

SOUTH AMERICA/ ALL

AMERICAS >< EURASIA-E >< PACIFIC ><INDO-AUS

 

28. MAY 2013

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

ATLANTIC /WEST LONGITUDES: 15°W- 120° W

 

M 5.5- > 6.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-2 (ELECTRON STORM)

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) EURASIA EAST

EURASIA >< AFRICA ><S & N & S AMERICA

 

29. MAY 2013

 

ELECTRON STORM AFTER PROTON STORM (+)

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS:

 

M 5.5- >6.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-2 (ELECTRONS > LATENCY-prelim.)  

OTHER:

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (-)

GLOBAL *REGIONS> see definition below LONGITUDES : ALL

 

LATENCIES:
 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES (-) ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: LOW (LATENCY)   EARTHQUAKES DELAYED BY > ACTIVE ELECTRONS PROTON STORM (diminuishing)  

TECTONICS

HEATING UP ( ELECTRON STORM) (+) COOLING DOWN (LATENCY/ ENDING) UNCERTAIN    

 

EFFECTING AS > INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS (PROTONS)  

abbreviations:

(+) means: this activity is INCREASING

(-) means: This activity is DECREASING

  * note: Due to the necessary evaluation of incoming data, NOAA space weasther alerts are oftenly BACKDATED!  
           

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment:

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

QUIET

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

UNSETTLED

 

X RAY EVENT (FLARES)

NONE NONE

 

ACTIVE

  TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION (CME) NONE NONE

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

R= RADIO BLACKOUT

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

NONE

 

MAJOR STORM

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE G 1  

 

INTERNAL REPORT ON SOLAR STORMS:

SOLAR STORMS ARE INTENSIVE PARTICLE EMISSIONS

 

EXPECTED CME IMPACT

3

> 0.8 MeV ELECTRON STORM

> 10.000 < 100.000 pfu.

> 10.000 < 100.000 pfu. no data from GOES 13  

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (PROT.)

 

> 2.0 MeV ELECTRON STORM

> 1000 < 10000 pfu > 100 +/- 1000 pfu.(rising)

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

20130524: GOES 13 OBVIOUSLY SUFFERED A MALEFUNCTION OR DAMAGE GOES 13 OBVIOUSLY SUFFERED A MALEFUNCTION OR DAMAGE/ GOES 15 IS STILL ONLINE decreasing > 10 MeV PROTON STORM > 10 MeV Protons = > 01< 0.1 pfu. > 10 MeV Protons = > 01< 0.1 pfu. .  

EFFECTIVE PROTONS (-)

      GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT SOUTHWARDS (-) EFFECTIVE PROTONS NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS(+) EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS  
   

 

NEUTRONS-P/E SYNTHESIS < -10 > -11 rising < -10 > -12 rising < significant changes only (no alerts)

 

                 

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM * compared to " normal" values INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 805 km/s at 27/1737Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/1116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 27/1117Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 58767 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (29 May, 30 May).

 

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

MAY

 

DAY:

26

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 

      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS >  

 

EPICENTER/ MAP TSUNAMI WARNINGS    
Note:, as earthquake data are oftenly revised the next day by EMSC,this section will mostly be completed later this day . ! click here for MEDIA report ISSUED AT:   CANCELLED:  

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS > FOR REGIONS:  

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.8 - EASTERN UZBEKISTAN - 2013-05-26 06:08:16 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

40.03 N ; 67.44 E

DEPTH >

21 km

WAVE/HEIGHT   FREQUENCY  

 

 

                  note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!  
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0):

 

AFRICA AND ITS TECTONIC BOUNDARIES

SELDOM

"E"

MAP

01

EURASIA >< AFRICA>< AMERICA >< ANTARCTICA M 5.0 - NORTHERN ALGERIA - 2013-05-26 16:00:56 UTC  

REGION INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES/ INDIA

FREQUENT

"A"

MAP

01

EURASIA >< / INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.0 - KALIMANTAN, INDONESIA - 2013-05-26 12:25:15 UTC  

WATCHING: EXTRAORDINARY AND NEW EVENTS AND REGIONS:

NUMBER= ALL EVENTS AS LISTED BY EMSC OR USGS

numbered are events > M 2.0 with single events exceeding magnitude M 4.0.

 

REGION ECUADOR- PERU- BOLIVIA

FREQUENT

"D"

MAP

01

PACIFIC >< SOUTH AMERICA >< NASZA M 5.0 - SOUTHEAST OF EASTER ISLAND - 2013-05-26 08:03:22 UTC  

GERMANY / NEAR TO KOBLENZ ( EIFEL VOLCANIC FIELD)

SELDOM

"E"

MAP

01

EURASIA (volcanic) M 1.8 - GERMANY - 2013-05-26 02:38:29 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  
   
                       

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 

         

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
SOURCES>> NASA/ GOES EUMETSAT METEOSAT (EUROPE)

NOAA/ Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Center

METEOALARM

usno.navy.mil NOAA  

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

appr. GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 
wunderground.com Invest 92E MAY- 25- 2013 EASTERN PACIFIC 25 MPH ()

91.2° W

11.4° N

OFFSHORE/ 200km SW OF El SALVADOR WNW TD    
wunderground.com Invest 91E MAY- 23- 2013 EASTERN PACIFIC 25 MPH ()

106° W

10.6 ° N

OFFSHORE/ 650 km SW OF ACAPULCO/ MEXICO W TD  
                     

VARIOUS REPORTS:_

                   
                           
                   
       
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

92

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

546-907

FLARES >

C

03

 

CH 571

SOUTH

GROWING

MAY- 24- 2013

MAY- 29- 30- 2013

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

120.0

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 3.8

 

M

 

 

CH UNN.

> 60° NORTH

GROWING/ DISSOLVING

MAY- 18- 2013

MAY- 24- 2013?

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

16

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

40- 105 nT

geomagn. storm

X

 

 

CH UNN.

> 60° SOUTH

partially reermerged

MAY- 15- 2013

MAY- 20- 2013?

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

           

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS> NONE  
           

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 

faded (MAY 21)

11747

44 ° - 58° W

18 °  S

HRX/ CRO

 

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (EVOLUTION) :

 

rotating out >

11748

84 ° - 98° W

11 °  N

AXX

 

        ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>>

LOW

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
rotated out >

11749

78 ° - 92° W

23 °  S

BXO

 

        LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130421

unclear

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)  
faded (MAY 21)

11750

81 ° - 95° W

11 °  S

DAI/CAO

 

 

 

 

  PREVIOUS MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130421

20130430 ( MAX)

 
faded (MAY 19)

11752

50 ° - 64° W

17 °  N

CRO/ BXO

MAY- 17

     

 

       

 

 

11753

06° - 20° W

14° N

AXX/ BXO

         

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
 

11754

17° - 31° W

19° S

DRO

       

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
 

11755

13° E- 01° W

10° N

DAI

MAY- 26

      *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
 

11756

02° E- 12° W

20° S

EHI/ FSI

MAY- 26

             
 

11757

69° - 55° E

09° S

HSX

MAY- 30

             

NEWLY SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

03

 

        INTERPLANETARY. REMARKS    

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

          PROTON FLUX

DECREASING

latest: begin: 20130522/ 12 UTC- dropping since 20130525( 10 UTC

 

 

 

 

^CME Nr.

      ELECTRON FLUX

NORMAL

latest:MAY-20130522/ 12 UTC(strong increase after eruptive event )- 20130526/00 UTC

 

internal remarks:

 

 

       

 

PROTON STORM ENDED DECREASING INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

 

 
                 

 

 

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 26/0957Z from Region 1756 (S20W13). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 May, 28 May, 29 May).

 

 

TODAY` S EARTH DIRECTED CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME):

this section will always appear, when a significant CME event was noticed and data have to be updated. You find more information about recent CME events in " today`s preliminary report"

 
- NONE YET-                  
   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

           

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130515- 22

int. CME Nr. >>

CME cluster Nr 23 a-d / and 24/13

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS +

N & S AMERICA WEST, CA

MULTIPLE CME CLUSTER LONGITUDES : 180° W- 120° E

 

ALERT LEVEL

* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

 
EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS(+) & CME (-)

SUDDEN (THUNDER- STORMS (+)

ALASKA/ KAMCHATKA/ JAPAN

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

EURASIA >< PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS (+)& CME (-) ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3) hh

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

SECONDARY REGIONS : CENTERED AT: 33° S- 57° N SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

26. MAY 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

CNTR. & E- PACIFIC

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

----------------

LONGITUDES: 180° W- 120° E

 

M 5.5- > 7. 0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (Geomagnetic Storm)

 
INDUCED CURRENTS SOUTH AMERICA/ ALL

AMERICAS >< EURASIA-E >< PACIFIC ><INDO-AUS

 

27. MAY 2013

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

ATLANTIC /WEST LONGITUDES: 15°W- 120° W

 

M 5.5- > 6.5 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (Geomagnetic Storm ending?)

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) EURASIA EAST

EURASIA >< AFRICA ><S & N & S AMERICA

 

28. MAY 2013

 

ELECTRON STORM AFTER PROTON STORM (+)

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS:

 

M 5.5- >6.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-2 (ELECTRONS > LATENCY-prelim.)  

OTHER:

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (-)

GLOBAL *REGIONS> see definition below LONGITUDES : ALL

 

LATENCIES:
 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: decreasing >LATENCY   EARTHQUAKES DELAYED BY > ACTIVE ELECTRONS PROTON STORM (diminuishing)  

TECTONICS

COOLING DOWN AFTER PROTON/CME IMPACT COOLING DOWN (LATENCY/ ENDING) UNCERTAIN    

 

EFFECTING AS > INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS (PROTONS)  

abbreviations:

(+) means: this activity is INCREASING

(-) means: This activity is DECREASING

  * note: Due to the necessary evaluation of incoming data, NOAA space weasther alerts are oftenly BACKDATED!  
           

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment:

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

QUIET

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

UNSETTLED

 

X RAY EVENT (FLARES)

NONE NONE

 

ACTIVE

  TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION (CME) NONE NONE

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

R= RADIO BLACKOUT

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

NONE

 

MAJOR STORM

G 1

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

G 1 NONE  

 

INTERNAL REPORT ON SOLAR STORMS:

SOLAR STORMS ARE INTENSIVE PARTICLE EMISSIONS

 

EXPECTED CME IMPACT

3

> 0.8 MeV ELECTRON STORM

> 10.000 < 100.000 pfu.

> 1000 < 10.000 pfu. no data from GOES 13  

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (PROT.)

 

> 2.0 MeV ELECTRON STORM

> 100 +/- 1000 pfu.(rising) > 10 > 100 pfu. no data from GOES 13

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

20130524: GOES 13 OBVIOUSLY SUFFERED A MALEFUNCTION OR DAMAGE GOES 13 OBVIOUSLY SUFFERED A MALEFUNCTION OR DAMAGE/ GOES 15 IS STILL ONLINE decreasing > 10 MeV PROTON STORM > 10 MeV Protons = > 01< 0.1 pfu. 10 MeV P >01< 10 pfu. .  

EFFECTIVE PROTONS (-)

      GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT SOUTHWARDS (-) EFFECTIVE PROTONS NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS(+) EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS  
   

 

NEUTRONS-P/E SYNTHESIS < -09 > -11 equal < -09 > -11 equal < significant changes only (no alerts)

 

                 

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM * compared to " normal" values INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 849 km/s at 25/2207Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 25/2258Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 26/0615Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 25/2115Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 11636 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (27 May, 28 May) and quiet levels on day three (29 May).

 

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

MAY

 

DAY:

25

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 

      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS >  

 

EPICENTER/ MAP TSUNAMI WARNINGS    
Note:, as earthquake data are oftenly revised the next day by EMSC,this section will mostly be completed later this day . ! click here for MEDIA report ISSUED AT:   CANCELLED:  

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS > FOR REGIONS:  

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.5 - KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA - 2013-05-25 10:32:57 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

7.64 S ; 127.99 E

DEPTH >

128 km

WAVE/HEIGHT   FREQUENCY  

 

 

                  note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!  
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0):

 

PANAMERICA

FREQUENT SINCE 2012

"D"

MAP

01

N & SOUTH AMERICA >< COCOS M 5.2 - SOUTH OF PANAMA - 2013-05-25 14:13:10 UTC  

REGION PERU- BOLIVIA

FREQUENT

"D"

MAP

01

PACIFIC >< SOUTH AMERICA >< NASZA M 5.3 - SOUTHERN PERU - 2013-05-25 01:04:27 UTC  

PACIFIC/MAINLY WEST/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC.

FREQUENT

"B"

MAP

03

PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.1 - WEST OF MACQUARIE ISLAND - 2013-05-25 02:27:19 UTC  

WATCHING: EXTRAORDINARY AND NEW EVENTS AND REGIONS:

NUMBER= ALL EVENTS AS LISTED BY EMSC OR USGS

numbered are events > M 2.0 with single events exceeding magnitude M 4.0.

 

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012

"C"

MAP

01

SAN ANDREAS FAULT >< JUAN DE FUCA M 4.0 - OFF COAST OF OREGON - 2013-05-25 05:51:01 UTC  
LOW MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKES THOSE ARE RATHER SWARMS OR VOLCANIC TREMORS:    

KAMCHATKA PENINSULA/ EARTHQUAKE SWARM (has ended)

FREQUENT

"B"

MAP

01

N-AMERICA >< EURASIA >< PACIFIC><PHIL. M 4.5 - SEA OF OKHOTSK - 2013-05-25 00:19:35 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  
           
   
                       

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 

         

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
SOURCES>> NASA/ GOES EUMETSAT METEOSAT (EUROPE)

NOAA/ Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Center

METEOALARM

usno.navy.mil NOAA  

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

appr. GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 
wunderground.com Invest 91E MAY- 23- 2013 EASTERN PACIFIC 25 MPH ()

105.9° W

10.3° N

OFFSHORE/ 600 km SW OF ACAPULCO/ MEXICO WNW TD  
                     

VARIOUS REPORTS:_

                   
                           
           
       
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

107

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

480-870

FLARES >

C

04

 

CH UNN.

> 60° NORTH

GROWING/ DISSOLVING

MAY- 18- 2013

MAY- 24- 2013?

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

121.3

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 3.9

 

M

 

 

CH UNN.

> 60° SOUTH

CLOSED

MAY- 15- 2013

MAY- 20- 2013?

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

29

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

30- 115 nT

CME influence

X

 

 

         

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

           

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS> HIGH CME or CH UNN.
           

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 

           

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (EVOLUTION) :

 

faded (MAY 21)

11747

44 ° - 58° W

18 °  S

HRX/ CRO

          ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>>

DECREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
 

11748

70 ° - 84° W

11 °  N

CRO/ BXO

 

        LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130421

unclear

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)  
rotated out >

11749

78 ° - 92° W

23 °  S

BXO

 

 

 

 

  PREVIOUS MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130421

20130430 ( MAX)

 
faded (MAY 21)

11750

81 ° - 95° W

11 °  S

DAI/CAO

 

     

 

       

 

faded (MAY 19)

11752

50 ° - 64° W

17 °  N

CRO/ BXO

MAY- 17

       

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
 

11753

08° E - 06° W

14° N

BXO/ CRO

       

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
 

11754

06° - 20° W

19° S

CRO

        *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
 

11755

27°- 14° E

10° N

DAI/ DAC

MAY- 26

             
 

11756

15° - 01° E

20° S

EHI/ EAI

MAY- 26

             

NEWLY SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

03

 

        INTERPLANETARY. REMARKS    

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

          PROTON FLUX

HIGH

latest:MAY- 22/ 12 UTC: strong increase after eruptive event in AR 11745

 

 

 

 

^CME Nr.

      ELECTRON FLUX

NORMAL

latest:MAY- 22/ 12 UTC: strong increase after eruptive event in AR 117458 decreasing

 

internal remarks:

 

 

       

 

PROTON STORM ENDED DECREASING INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

 

 
                 

 

 

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 25/1049Z from Region 1755 (N11E12). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 May, 27 May, 28 May).

 

 

TODAY` S EARTH DIRECTED CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME):

this section will always appear, when a significant CME event was noticed and data have to be updated. You find more information about recent CME events in " today`s preliminary report"

 
- NONE YET-                  
   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

           

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130515- 22

int. CME Nr. >>

CME cluster Nr 23 a-d / and 24/13

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

N & S AMERICA WEST, CA

MULTIPLE CME CLUSTER LONGITUDES : 180° W- 120° E

 

ALERT LEVEL

* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

 

EFFECTIVE PROTONS (-)

SUDDEN (THUNDER- STORMS (+)

ALASKA/ KAMCHATKA/ JAPAN

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

EURASIA >< PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA

 

EFFECTIVE PROTONS (-) ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

SECONDARY REGIONS : CENTERED AT: 33° S- 57° N SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

25. MAY 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

CNTR. & E- PACIFIC

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data as measured by ACE and GOEShp

 

LONGITUDES: 180° W- 120° E

 

M 5.5- >7.5 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (PROTON IMPACT)- decreasing

 

INDUCED CURRENTS SOUTH AMERICA/ ALL

AMERICAS >< EURASIA-E >< PACIFIC ><INDO-AUS

 

26. MAY 2013

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS ATLANTIC /WEST LONGITUDES: 15°W- 120° W

 

M 5.5- > 7. 0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (CME IMPACT)

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) EURASIA EAST

EURASIA >< AFRICA ><S & N & S AMERICA

 

27. MAY 2013

 

ELECTRON STORM AFTER PROTON STORM

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS:

 

M 5.5- >6.5 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-2 (ELECTRONS > LATENCY-prelim.)

 

OTHER:

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (-)

GLOBAL *REGIONS> see definition below LONGITUDES : ALL

 

LATENCIES:
 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: DECREASING   EARTHQUAKES DELAYED BY > ACTIVE ELECTRONS PROTON STORM (decreasing)

 

TECTONICS

COOLING DOWN AFTER PROTON/CME IMPACT COOLING DOWN (LATENCY/ ENDING) UNCERTAIN    

 

EFFECTING AS > INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS (PROTONS)  
        * note: Due to the necessary evaluation of incoming data, NOAA space weasther alerts are oftenly BACKDATED!  

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment:

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

QUIET

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

UNSETTLED

 

X RAY EVENT (FLARES)

NONE NONE

 

ACTIVE

  TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION (CME) NONE NONE

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

R= RADIO BLACKOUT

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

NONE

 

MAJOR STORM

G 1

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

G 1 NONE  

 

INTERNAL REPORT ON SOLAR STORMS:

SOLAR STORMS ARE INTENSIVE PARTICLE EMISSIONS

 

ONGOING CME IMPACT

3

> 0.8 MeV ELECTRON STORM

> 1000 < 10.000 pfu.

> 10000 < 100.000 pfu. /rising) no data from GOES 13  

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (PROT.)

 

> 2.0 MeV ELECTRON STORM

> 10 > 100 pfu. > 100 < 1000 pfu.DISTURBANCE/ 10 UTC no data from GOES 13

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

20130524: GOES 13 OBVIOUSLY SUFFERED A MALEFUNCTION OR DAMAGE GOES 13 OBVIOUSLY SUFFERED A MALEFUNCTION OR DAMAGE/ GOES 15 IS STILL ONLINE S 1 (dim.) > 10 MeV PROTON STORM > 10 MeV Protons = > 01< 10 pfu. 10 MeV P > 10 < 100 pfu. .  

EFFECTIVE PROTONS

      GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT SOUTHWARDS (-) EFFECTIVE PROTONS NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS(+) EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS  
   

 

NEUTRONS-P/E SYNTHESIS < -09 > -11 equal < -09 > -11 equal < significant changes only (no alerts)

 

                 

GENERAL REMARKS TO THE LONG TERM EFFECTS OF SOLAR PROTON EVENTS/ STORMS ( by: alien-homepage.de) : : Several strong earthquakes happen regularly immidiately during/ after Proton Storms (those themselves likely are also caused by kinds of solar quakes. Otherwise during that first phase, more exactly: DURING the proton storms when proton flux is elavated- as a typical antienergetic effect Protons have, everything that requires cinetic energies to work such as storms or volcanic activities are rather very low. Entire storms systems as statistics indicate seem to can come to a stillstand by such a proton impact. Other data show that protons can even swallow electrons ( memory charges) from harddiscs as more as if these ar plugged to the grid or connected to the web. and surely proton storms do interrupt all kinds of radio transmissions. After the proton storm itself has decreased regularly an electron storms sets in that last again for some days. During that time, all kind of cinetic effects set in: Mainly sudden thundestorms, and increasing volcano activities preferently those of hot spot volcanoes. Induced currents effecting down to the Earth surface with potential of heavy damage to power grids are seldom, but TYPICALLY OCCURE ESPECIALLY AFTER PROTON EVENTS when the proton and succeeding electron storms( impact reaches certain strength. This phase now last normally not more than 10 days until the affected tectonic plates would cool down again and contract, what leads to the second and final phase with the chance for another STRONG EARTHQUAKES. The described single phase are prolongued amplified or mindered WHEN NEW CME events occure , those might contain more protons or electrons. Its hardly then to forecast but current data show, that by the fact that protons shift the geomagnetic charge temporarely to positive values, that short circuit that lets flow solar energies right through the magnetic field lines (MPI MUnich) into the Earth core, the Earth can likely sum up and even store these energies for a long time ( by forming neutrons) what includes the risk of a concentrated energetic breakouts in different forms.

 

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM * compared to " normal" values INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 725 km/s at 25/2100Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 25/2040Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 25/2048Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 16 pfu at 24/2110Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 943 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (26 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (27 May, 28 May).

 

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

MAY

 

DAY:

24

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 

      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS >  

 

EPICENTER/ MAP TSUNAMI WARNINGS NONE  
Note:, as earthquake data are oftenly revised the next day by EMSC,this section will mostly be completed later this day . ! click here for MEDIA report

NASA/ Earth Observatory/ 20130525: Breakup Continues on the Wilkins Ice Shelf

An ice shelf is a thick plate of ice attached to a coastline on one side and floating over the ocean on the other side. Many ice shelves fringe Antarctica, including the Wilkins Ice Shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula, which underwent a series of breakup events in 1998, 2008, and 2009.In addition, the sea ice that had long pressed the shelf up against the coastline moved out, putting the remnants of the shelf in direct contact with open water. Ocean waves went to work on the ice, and in early 2013 the fracturing continued....read more...

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS >

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 8.3 - SEA OF OKHOTSK - 2013-05-24 05:44:48 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

54.91 N ; 153.34 E

DEPTH >

598 km

 

Note:, as earthquake data are oftenly revised the next day by EMSC,this section will mostly be completed later this day . ! click here for MEDIA report

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS >

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 6.0 - SOUTH OF TONGA - 2013-05-24 11:10:48 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE > 24.32 S ; 175.02 W

DEPTH >

2 km

 

 

                  note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!  
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0):

 

KAMCHATKA PENINSULA/ EARTHQUAKE SWARM

FREQUENT

"B"

MAP

02

N-AMERICA >< EURASIA >< PACIFIC><PHIL. M 6.7 - SEA OF OKHOTSK - 2013-05-24 14:56:31 UTC  

PACIFIC/MAINLY WEST/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC.

FREQUENT

"B"

MAP

01

PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.3 - MACQUARIE ISLAND REGION - 2013-05-24 01:10:02 UT  

KAMCHATKA PENINSULA/ KURIL ISLANDS / JAPAN

FREQUENT

"B"

MAP

04

N-AMERICA >< EURASIA >< PACIFIC><PHIL. M 5.0 - NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN - 2013-05-24 08:33:18 UTC  

WATCHING: EXTRAORDINARY AND NEW EVENTS AND REGIONS:

NUMBER= ALL EVENTS AS LISTED BY EMSC OR USGS

numbered are events > M 2.0 with single events exceeding magnitude M 4.0.

 

REGION OF CALIFORNIA / EARTHQUAKE SWARM

MAY- 24- 2013

"C"

MAP

11 ( M 3.5- 5.0)

SAN ANDREAS FAULT >< JUAN DE FUCA M 5.7 - NORTHERN CALIFORNIA - 2013-05-24 03:47:09 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  

 

 
                       

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 

REGION:
NAME/USGS datalink:
GEOGRAPHIC POSITION: LAT. / LONG.
VOLCANO NUMBER
VOLCANO TYPE
WEBCAM DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL MAP: LOCAL SURVEY  
KURIL ISLANDS/ RUSSIA CHIRINKOTAN 48°59'0"N/ 153°29'0"E 0900-26= Stratovolcano Hi* CHIRINKOTAN
none

MAY- 24- 2013

 

Kyril islands

SVERT

MODIS

 

Wikipedia:

                 

 

           

20130529

report by:

GVP  

SVERT reported that steam and gas activity at Chirinkotan was observed in satellite imagery during 24-25 May.

 

                             

 

         

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
SOURCES>> NASA/ GOES EUMETSAT METEOSAT (EUROPE)

NOAA/ Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Center

METEOALARM

usno.navy.mil NOAA  

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

appr. GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

 
wunderground.com Invest 91E MAY- 23- 2013 EASTERN PACIFIC 25 MPH ()

104.0° W

10.0° N OFFSHORE/ 500 km SW OF ACAPULCO/ MEXICO W TD    
                     

VARIOUS REPORTS:_

                   
                           

MAY- 24 2013: GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES

                 

< This new map published by NEO/ NASA EARTH SCIENCE

shows the global surface temperatures in May 2013: While parts of the artic and Sibiria have warmer temperatures an new coldest pole seems to have established in the Nothern mids of Canada near to Hudson Bay. Allthough I don`t want to discuss the complicated theories form " magnetic poleshifting" or even possible and related " earthcurst displacements" which predicted decades agao, the current northern magnetic Pole might shift this time to Hudson Bay.( analoge the Southern wouldalso shift Earthwards) the evidence shows that major changes in the temperature pattern are reality.

More evident is the temperatures distribution in Europe: satellite images in particlar show that the coldest zones in Europe currently stretch out along the path of the gulf stream and even go right therough in between th two British islands, where normally because of the gulf stream-. even palms can be grown.- I couldn`t find the satellite image in the tagesschau News on May 24, that showed more accurately , that the coldest zones in Europe currently ( May 24) stretch out exactly along the path of the Northern atlantic gulf stream. but instead found this more simple one on / thanks to:) weatherunderground. com >

BBC( 20130523 related):Russia to evacuate Arctic station over melting ice

 
                     
   

 

           

20130524

report by:

volcanodiscovery.com  
 

California/ Magnitude 5.7 earthquake near Lassen volcano

A shallow magnitude 5.7 earthquake occurred Fri, 24 May at 04:58 UTC km WNW of Greenville, California, about 50 km SE of Lassen volcano. Hundreds of aftershocks, some of them felt, have occurred. It is unlikely that the earthquake has any relation with the volcano. The status of Lassen volcano remains therefore at green....read more...

 

 

Magnitude 8.3 Seaquake near Kamchatka Peninsula triggered no Tsunami- NOAA said...

     

20130524

report by:

ptwc.weather.gov  

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001 PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS ISSUED AT 0552Z 24 MAY 2013 THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS...EXCEPT ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA... WASHINGTON...OREGON AND CALIFORNIA. ... TSUNAMI INFORMATION BULLETIN ... THIS BULLETIN IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY. THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS ORIGIN TIME - 0545Z 24 MAY 2013 COORDINATES - 54.7 NORTH 153.4 EAST DEPTH - 619 KM LOCATION - SEA OF OKHOTSK MAGNITUDE - 8.2

EVALUATION A DESTRUCTIVE TSUNAMI WAS NOT GENERATED BASED ON EARTHQUAKE AND HISTORICAL TSUNAMI DATA. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY BULLETIN ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY MAY ALSO ISSUE TSUNAMI MESSAGES FOR THIS EVENT TO COUNTRIES IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND SOUTH CHINA SEA REGION. IN CASE OF CONFLICTING INFORMATION... THE MORE CONSERVATIVE INFORMATION SHOULD BE USED FOR SAFETY.

THE WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE PRODUCTS FOR ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...WASHINGTON...OREGON...CALIFORNIA....read more...

 

               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

99

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

422-580

FLARES >

C

03

 

CH UNN.

> 60° NORTH

GROWING

MAY- 18- 2013

MAY- 24- 2013?

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

127.3

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 4.5

 

M

 

 

CH UNN.

> 60° SOUTH

DECAYING

MAY- 15- 2013

MAY- 20- 2013?

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

20

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

49- 160 nT

CME arrival

X

 

 

         

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

           

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS> LOW CME arrival
           

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 

           

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (EVOLUTION) :

 

faded (MAY 21)

11747

44 ° - 58° W

18 °  S

HRX/ CRO

          ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>>

DECREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

 
 

11748

56 ° - 70° W

11 °  N

DAO/ DRO

 

        LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130421

unclear

< LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)  
rotated out >

11749

78 ° - 92° W

23 °  S

BXO

 

 

 

 

  PREVIOUS MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130421

20130430 ( MAX)

 
faded (MAY 21)

11750

81 ° - 95° W

11 °  S

DAI/CAO

 

     

 

       

 

faded (MAY 19)

11752

50 ° - 64° W

17 °  N

CRO/ BXO

MAY- 17

       

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
 

11753

20°- 06° E

14° N

CRO/ DRI

MAY- 26

     

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
 

11754

10° E- 04° W

19° S

CRO

MAY- 24

      *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
 

11755

40°- 26° E

10° N

DSO/ CSI

MAY- 26

             
 

11756

28° - 14° E

20° S

DAI/ EAI

MAY- 24

             

NEWLY SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

02

 

        INTERPLANETARY. REMARKS    

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

          PROTON FLUX

HIGH

latest:MAY- 22/ 12 UTC: strong increase after eruptive event in AR 11745

 

 

 

 

^CME Nr.

      ELECTRON FLUX

NORMAL

latest:MAY- 22/ 12 UTC: strong increase after eruptive event in AR 117458 decreasing

 

internal remarks:

 

 

       

 

PROTON STORM ENDED DECREASING INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

 

 
                 

 

 

 

USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 24/0124Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 May, 26 May, 27 May).

 

 

TODAY` S EARTH DIRECTED CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME):

this section will always appear, when a significant CME event was noticed and data have to be updated. You find more information about recent CME events in " today`s preliminary report"

 
- NONE YET-                  
   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

           

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130515- 21

int. CME Nr. >>

Nr 23 a-d /13 update: 24/13

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

ALASKA/ KAMCHATKA

CME CLUSTER (4x) LONGITUDES : 18- 0° W120° E

 

ALERT LEVEL

* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

 

EXTREME PROTON EVENT!

SUDDEN (THUNDER- STORMS

NORTH AMERICA WEST, CALIFORNIA

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

EURASIA >< AFRICA ><S & N- AMERICA

 

EXTREME PROTON EVENT! ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

SECONDARY REGIONS : CENTERED AT: 33° S- 57° N SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

24. MAY 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

ATLANTIC/WEST, CARIBBEAN

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

LONGITUDES: 30° - 60°/120° W

 

M 5.5- >8.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

2-3 (PROTON& CME IMPACT)

 

INDUCED CURRENTS SOUTH AMERICA/ WEST

EURASIA >< AFRICA ><S & N & S AMERICA

 

25. MAY 2013

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS

PACIFIC LONGITUDES: 15°W- 180° W

 

M 5.5- > 7.5 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (CME IMPACT)

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) EURASIA EAST

PACIFIC ><EURASIA >< ARABIA >INDO-AUS

 

26. MAY 2013

 

ELECTRON STORM AFTER PROTON STORM

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS:

 

M 5.5- > 6.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (LATENCY ) only preliminary!

 

OTHER:

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION

GLOBAL *REGIONS> see definition below LONGITUDES : ALL

 

LATENCIES:
 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: HIGH   EARTHQUAKES DELAYED BY > ACTIVE ELECTRONS EXTREME PROTON STORM (> 1000 pfu.!)

 

TECTONICS

COOLING DOWN AFTER PROTON/CME IMPACT COOLING DOWN (LATENCY/ ENDING) UNCERTAIN    

 

EFFECTING AS > INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS (PROTONS)  
        * note: Due to the necessary evaluation of incoming data, NOAA space weasther alerts are oftenly BACKDATED!  

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment:

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

QUIET

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

UNSETTLED

 

X RAY EVENT (FLARES)

NONE M5/ M6

 

ACTIVE

  TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION (CME) NONE 01

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

R= RADIO BLACKOUT

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

01

 

MAJOR STORM

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

PREDICTED NONE  

 

INTERNAL REPORT ON SOLAR STORMS:

SOLAR STORMS ARE INTENSIVE PARTICLE EMISSIONS

 

CME IMPACT

3

> 0.8 MeV ELECTRON STORM

> 10000 < 100.000 pfu.

> 10000 < 100.000 pfu. /rising) no data from GOES 13  

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (PROT.)

 

> 2.0 MeV ELECTRON STORM

> 10 > 100 pfu. > 100 < 1000 pfu.DISTURBANCE/ 10 UTC no data from GOES 13

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

GOES 13 OBVIOUSLY SUFFERED A MALEFUNCTION OR DAMAGE/ GOES 15 IS STILL ONLINE GOES 13 OBVIOUSLY SUFFERED A MALEFUNCTION OR DAMAGE/ GOES 15 IS STILL ONLINE

S 1

> 100 MeV PROTON STORM

> 10 MeV Protons = > 100 < 1000 pfu.

NEW EVENT 100 MeV P > 1000 pfu. .  

EFFECTIVE PROTONS

      GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT SOUTHWARDS (-) EFFECTIVE PROTONS NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS(+) EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS  
Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD Serial Number: 173 Issue Time: 2013 May 24 1820 UTC SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse Observed: 2013 May 24 1812 UTC Deviation: 18 nT Station: Boulder

 

NEUTRONS-P/E SYNTHESIS < -09 > -10 rising < -10 > -11 dropping < significant changes only (no alerts)

 

                 

GENERAL REMARKS TO THE LONG TERM EFFECTS OF SOLAR PROTON EVENTS/ STORMS ( by: alien-homepage.de) : : Several strong earthquakes happen regularly immidiately during/ after Proton Storms (those themselves likely are also caused by kinds of solar quakes. Otherwise during that first phase, more exactly: DURING the proton storms when proton flux is elavated- as a typical antienergetic effect Protons have, everything that requires cinetic energies to work such as storms or volcanic activities are rather very low. Entire storms systems as statistics indicate seem to can come to a stillstand by such a proton impact. Other data show that protons can even swallow electrons ( memory charges) from harddiscs as more as if these ar plugged to the grid or connected to the web. and surely proton storms do interrupt all kinds of radio transmissions. After the proton storm itself has decreased regularly an electron storms sets in that last again for some days. During that time, all kind of cinetic effects set in: Mainly sudden thundestorms, and increasing volcano activities preferently those of hot spot volcanoes. Induced currents effecting down to the Earth surface with potential of heavy damage to power grids are seldom, but TYPICALLY OCCURE ESPECIALLY AFTER PROTON EVENTS when the proton and succeeding electron storms( impact reaches certain strength. This phase now last normally not more than 10 days until the affected tectonic plates would cool down again and contract, what leads to the second and final phase with the chance for another STRONG EARTHQUAKES. The described single phase are prolongued amplified or mindered WHEN NEW CME events occure , those might contain more protons or electrons. Its hardly then to forecast but current data show, that by the fact that protons shift the geomagnetic charge temporarely to positive values, that short circuit that lets flow solar energies right through the magnetic field lines (MPI MUnich) into the Earth core, the Earth can likely sum up and even store these energies for a long time ( by forming neutrons) what includes the risk of a concentrated energetic breakouts in different forms.

 

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM * compared to " normal" values INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 621 km/s at 24/2058Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 24/1739Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 24/1738Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 368 pfu at 23/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2063 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (26 May, 27 May). Protons are likely to continue above threshold levels on day one (25 May), have a chance of remaining above threshold on day two (26 May) and have a slight chance of remaining above threshold on day three (27 May).

 

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

MAY

 

DAY:

23

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 

      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS >  

 

EPICENTER/ MAP TSUNAMI WARNINGS NONE  
Note:, as earthquake data are oftenly revised the next day by EMSC,this section will mostly be completed later this day . ! click here for MEDIA report  

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS >

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 7.4 - SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS - 2013-05-23 17:19:02 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

23.04 S ; 177.08 W

DEPTH >

155 km

 

 

                   
Note:, as earthquake data are oftenly revised the next day by EMSC,this section will mostly be completed later this day . ! click here for MEDIA report

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS >