-----------------------

 

note: with elder machines the page will need some time to load!

alien- homepage.de- Earth quake statistics- -SUN SPOT ACTIVITY- 11- years solar cycle- last update: NOVEMBER 08 2013- -07:00 UTC copyright: reserved

background image: Aurora Borealis /COMMONS / wikipedia
open source earthquake forecast project created and provided by: alien-homepage.de-

note: On November 01 2013 I introduced a new format of this page , which will make it easier to load and watch for people with low resolution monitors-

According to NASA, this 24th. 11 year sun spot cycle has probably a " twin peak"- the second in 2015. This projekt therefore will be prolongued.
 
2012/ 13 - MAXIMUM OF 11- YEAR SOLAR CYCLE
SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG

ARCHIVE NOVEMBER - 2013

NASA STEREO BEACON

alien-homepage.de / internal links:

TRANSLATORS
recommended: install Google toolbar with integrated translator!
PROJECT CENTRAL:

PAGES RELATED TO THIS SOLAR/TERRESTRIAL PROJECT>
ws
>HAVE YOU ANY COMMENT?
               
SOHO REALTIME current view on the Sun
SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG/ ARCHIVES:
2013 >

NOV
2012 >

2011 >
2010 >
NOTE: I WILL INTRODUCE A NEW ARCHIVE SYSTEM IN 2012. CLICK ON THE BUTTON (right) FOR THE NEW ARCHIVE DIRECTORY! >

Note: Due to the high data amount in these monthly archives, I am currently trying to improve this by putting the single archives into collapsible panels.

Also I will split the monthly archive into 4 weekly ones. click on the following tabs to open the collapsible panels. You can report to my blog, if you should still experience problems when loading this page.

click here to open panel with graphics, volcano maps , earthquake statistic- NOVEMBER- 2013
   
ALL KNOWN VOLCANOES WORLDWIDE, WEEKLY ACTIVITY UPDATES, WEBCAMS, and much more on my "REGIONAL VOLCANO " MAPS:
INTERNAL MAPS: click on the images or links below to get to my large regional maps, where you find all volcanoes around the world with descriptions , webcams and much more such as ancients sites! . Weekly regular activity updates, special earthquakes events with many functions

world volcano map 1.0

world volcano map version 2.0

Europe and Western Asia Africa and Arabic peninsula Central America and Mexico South America- Northern part South America- Southern part Central America and Mexico Northern America Kamchatka peninsula Japan region Indonesia and Philippines Australia and Southern Pacific

 

SPACECRAFTS:
SoHO
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
SDO /AIA
Solar Dynamics Observatory
STEREO
Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory
GOES
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites

ACE

 
 
 
 
 
 
Advanced Composition Explorer

^^ internal Earthquake statistics- with Sun activity curves : green = SUNSPOT NUMBER, Pink= SOLAR FLUX, blue= PLANETARY A INDEX- right image: planetary constellations in March 2013

click here to see some of the paradox observations made during that solar cycle first possibly by observatory sopacecrafts: : CORONAL HOLES THOSE REAPPEAR DURING SEVERAL SOLAR ROTATION PERIODS ON THE SAME HELIOGRAPHIC POSITION

 

Smithsonian Institution / USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report

Activity for the week of 20 November-26 November 2013

The GVP page is updated on Wednesdays. Please see the GVP Home Page for news of the latest significant activity.

NEW ACTIVITIES/ UPDATES: ONGOING ACTIVITIES/ UPDATES:
Etna Sicily (Italy) New
Kliuchevskoi Central Kamchatka (Russia) New
Nishino-shima Japan New
Sinabung Indonesia New

 

Chirinkotan Kuril Islands (Russia) Ongoing
Chirpoi Kuril Islands (Russia) Ongoing
Copahue Central Chile-Argentina border Ongoing
Fuego Guatemala Ongoing
Karymsky Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) Ongoing
Kilauea Hawaiian Islands (USA) Ongoing
Sakurajima Kyushu (Japan) Ongoing
Shiveluch Central Kamchatka (Russia) Ongoing
Ulawun New Britian (Papua New Guinea) Ongoing

 

notes: The Smithsonian was closed due to a United States federal government shutdown on Oct- 02- 2013. On October 21- 2013, Global Volcanism Program staff could return to work : First new vulcanism update was issued on Oct- 23- 2013

Smithsonian Institution / USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report

Activity for the week of 13 November-19 November 2013

The GVP page is updated on Wednesdays. Please see the GVP Home Page for news of the latest significant activity.

NEW ACTIVITIES/ UPDATES: ONGOING ACTIVITIES/ UPDATES:
Colima Mexico New
Etna Sicily (Italy) New
Merapi Central Java (Indonesia) New
Sinabung Indonesia New
Yasur Vanuatu New

 

Bagana Bougainville (Papua New Guinea) Ongoing
Chirinkotan Kuril Islands (Russia) Ongoing
Chirpoi Kuril Islands (Russia) Ongoing
Copahue Central Chile-Argentina border Ongoing
Fuego Guatemala Ongoing
Karymsky Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) Ongoing
Kilauea Hawaiian Islands (USA) Ongoing
Manam Papua New Guinea Ongoing
Rabaul New Britian (Papua New Guinea) Ongoing
Shiveluch Central Kamchatka (Russia) Ongoing
Ulawun New Britian (Papua New Guinea) Ongoing

 

notes: The Smithsonian was closed due to a United States federal government shutdown on Oct- 02- 2013. On October 21- 2013, Global Volcanism Program staff could return to work : First new vulcanism update was issued on Oct- 23- 2013

Smithsonian Institution / USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report

Activity for the week of November 06- 12 2013

The GVP page is updated on Wednesdays. Please see the GVP Home Page for news of the latest significant activity.

NEW ACTIVITIES/ UPDATES:

Colima Mexico New
Etna Sicily (Italy) New
Sinabung Indonesia New
Tungurahua Ecuador New

 

 

ONGOING ACTIVITIES/ UPDATES:

Chirinkotan Kuril Islands (Russia) Ongoing
Chirpoi Kuril Islands (Russia) Ongoing
Copahue Central Chile-Argentina border Ongoing
Karymsky Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) Ongoing
Kilauea Hawaiian Islands (USA) Ongoing
Sakurajima Kyushu (Japan) Ongoing
Shiveluch Central Kamchatka (Russia) Ongoing
Batu Tara Komba Island (Indonesia) Ongoing

 

 

The Smithsonian was closed due to a United States federal government shutdown on Oct- 02- 2013. On October 21- 2013, Global Volcanism Program staff could return to work : First new vulcanism update was issued on Oct- 23- 2013
   
   
   

 

VIDEOS/ REPORTS, SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL EVENTS- NOVEMBER - 2013:

VIDEOS/ REPORTS OF THE WEEK

   
 

 

 

   
 

 

 

 
MAJOR EARTH DIRECTED CMEs :
SOLAR- TERRESTRIAL EVENT- NOVEMBER-28 2013 . After the solar sun spot activity had reached on Nov 17 2013 with 282 counted spots the highest level found during this entire 24. Sun spot cycle, activity dropped again to a low value until Nov 19. Meanwhile also official scientists suggest, there might by a relation between these activities and weather/ climate on Earth. The cold wave with temperatures down to minus 15° C in Souther Bavaria that suddenly creaped over the Northern Hemisphere on Nov 18 however occured coincidently with the dropping x ray background activity (the main indicator for sun spot activity. But also another temperature anomaly ( as typical after SEP events) has formed a frontline above central Europe and the N Hemisphere with warmer winds/ temp. on its northern and colder winds/ temp. on its Southern side , bringing sub zero temperatures to the South and warm weather in the Northern parts of Europe. The current state of the latest SEP remains unclear, since proton flux continued from the interplanetary field until Nov 18 and alters the measured electron values those therefore are still unreadable.
     
                       
SOLAR EVENT- NOVEMBER-23 2013 . AR 11899, the currently largest sun spot was quiet when it rotated over the solar disc. Now, when it arrived below GEMINI ( same as AR 11895 did before) it became suddenly very active with lots of flares on November 23; The line from Gemini (with Sirius below the ecliptic plane ) to the Sun further into Sagittarius from where it leads right into the massive center of our Milky Way, is (as all statistics show) among the celestial constellations ,those influence by a gravity not only the course of the Sun and its planets incl thier moons but- as statistics indicate- obviously also it flare activities. The Earth crosses this line between Gemini, the Sun and Sagittarius twice a year during both soltices, next time from December 19 until January 14- 2014 with the e Sun standing in front of Sagittarius . Then- as each year. Stronger Earth directed CMEs SHOULD BE EXCPECTED as very likelyduring this time
       
            SDO/ 20131119/ 10:42 UTC  
SOHO:
 
SOLAR EVENT- NOVEMBER-19 2013 . 11903 [S11E62] produced an impressive and major X 1 LED flare peaking from 10:25 until 10: 42 UTC . The event was associated to a MINOR SEP..First Protons impacted after 12.00 UTC- 1,5 hours after the event with a resulting speed of about 27.700 km/ second., but began to decrease again later on NOV 19 The CME going off from the Southwestern limb moves - as STEREO A imagery shows- pretty much towards the ecliptic plane. Thus the CME might have minor earth directed parts, those would arrive- if- then- sometime on Nov. 21.
 

no images yet

( transmission blackout)

 

 

 

          ^ FLARE ACTIVITY INCREASING ON NOV- 17:(SDO/ 20131117/ 08:10 UTC) ^FLARE ACTIVITY INCREASING ON NOV- 1SoHO/ LASCO C2 on 20131117/ 19:42 UTC:  
       

SOLAR EVENT- NOVEMBER-17- 18 2013 . Surface activities increased in form of impressive solar prominences on Nov 17: The largest event was on 20131117/ 08:10 UTC in AR 11893 that corresponds with aneighbored AR 11895) : Several of these events accumulated only to a minor partial halo CME after 19 UTC(- visible on SohO), that seems not to have much geoeffectivity. NOTE: solar prominences are NEVER ASSOCIATED to significant X ray bursts! On November 18 , sun spot number climbed further to a NEW RECORD HEIGHT of 182 counted spots at 177 sfu.(bg xray flux) High sun spot number over a longer period might contribute to regional heat waves on Earth ( last time a sun spot number constantly higher than 200 was measured over 3 weeks priorto March 11 2011, until that energy was finally unleashed in several strong CMEs on March 08 and 09 2011.

SOLAR EVENT- NOVEMBER-16 2013 . Sun Spot Number ( Wulf number) rose to 272 counted spots on November 16- 2013- the highest values measured throughout the peak of this 24. sun spot cycle. Xray bg. flux is around C level. This high tension will likely not decrease unless eruptions ass. to CMEs will/ would unleash this energy. Flare activity was low during the last days likely caused by an suggested increase in solar gravity what indicates another major SEP event coming up in the next days( weeks . The currently largest active region on the disc is AR 11899.

SOLAR ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS - NOVEMBER 2013The activity is currently also high due to a periodical fluctuation that reaches its peak about each 1/2 year, shortly before the two annual sun soltices. All solar emissions move radial from the solar core. This means such a periodical stronger x ray flux and flaring measured around the soltice is perharps just measured not in any other directions than on Earth .Its mainly suggested that peaks of gravitational forces such as during planetary and larger stellar alignments might cause the highly sensible solar electromagnetic field to fluctuate in different waves and frequencies, what mainls results in flare activity. Thus the alignment with the galactic core during both soltices mightly likely e responsible for for this regular half year fluctuation, that can be observed each year. ) There are two other periodical fluctuations: The one is what I call 30 days short period fluctuation (its irregular and takes 20- 35 days). Another long term fluctuations, resp solar cycle , the current 24. 11 years sun spot cycle is believed to interfer with , is not really explored yet, but suggested to take 60 or 120 years.This two cycle interference leads- so NASA. to a double peak of this 24. 11 year sun spot cyclem with the second peak expected in 2015). Current solar data seem to confirm that suggestion.

 

FLARE ACTIVITY INCREASING ON NOV- 17:(SDO/ 20131117/ 08:10 UTC)

FLARE ACTIVITY INCREASING ON NOV- 1SoHO/ LASCO C2 on 20131117/ 19:42 UTC:

 
                   

SOLAR EVENT- NOVEMBER-10 2013 . AR 11890 produced another X 1 flare early on November 10 at 5.13 UTC: The event was associated with a fast CME that headed mostly southwards but had also some geoeffective part,, those will arrive early and likely on NOV 11- 12. The geomagnetic storm, caused by CME impacts form AR 11890 was enhanced on November 09 by a high speed coronal hole wind stream (HSS) produced by CH 593 when it began to decay.

SOLAR/ TERRESTRIAL EVENT- NOVEMBER-06- 07 2013 . AR 11890 produced a significant major CME on NOV 06 at 13:56 UTC. A NEW. Another not unexpected SEP began early on Nov 07 2013 after 1:30 UTC. The source of the event is- as so often- not visible on satellite images. PROTON FLUX rose to 6 pfu. ( NASA issues a special warning for their customers from 10 pfu on)

 
                     
               

SOLAR/ TERRESTRIAL EVENT- NOVEMBER-06- 07 2013 . AR 11890 produced a significant major CME on NOV 06 at 13:56 UTC. ( images rights side) A NEW. but not unexpected SEP began early on Nov 07 2013 after 1:30 UTC. The source of the event is- as so often- not visible on satellite images. PROTON FLUX rose to 6 pfu. ( NASA issues a special warning from 10 pfu on being the treshold for technical devices due to the needs of of their customers.).

A CME IMPACT FROM THE MANY FLARES in AR 11890 WAS NOTICED on GOES satellite after 04 UTC and caused geomagnetic storming because of its positive charge.

 
                 

SOLAR/ TERRESTRIAL EVENT- NOVEMBER-06- 07 2013 . AR 11890 produced a significant major CME on NOV 06 at 13:56 UTC. ( images rights side) A NEW. but not unexpected SEP began early on Nov 07 2013 after 1:30 UTC. The source of the event is- as so often- not visible on satellite images. PROTON FLUX rose to 6 pfu. ( NASA issues a special warning from 10 pfu on being the treshold for technical devices due to the needs of of their customers.).

A CME IMPACT FROM THE MANY FLARES in AR 11890 WAS NOTICED on GOES satellite after 04 UTC and caused geomagnetic storming because of its positive charge.

 

SOLAR EVENT- NOVEMBER-05 2013 . AR 11890 rotated in on the Eastern solar limb on Nov 05: It is- so solen.info - one of the largest regions observed during solar cycle 24 and has at least 2 magnetic delta structures. Situated near to a new formed unnumbered and quickly growing transequatorial CH, AR 11890 was quite active today with an LDE,peaking with an M 1.5 x- ray burst at 08:39 UTC and a major CME, that headed into Southern direction and might have an earth directed flank.(> image 1- rightside) Other active regions to the South and North were involved in the LDE activity . Integral proton flux however slightly increased again around 10 UTC- 2 hours after the event- thus protons had as speed this time of appr 27.000 km/ second. Activities in more than one active regions might interfer with another and cover Earth directed parts on satellite images where minor CMEs parts would appear darker then . update; OCT- 06: . At 22:14 UTC, AR 1189 produced an X 2 flare.Analysis was not possible yet, as only SDO has transmitted images yet: (> image - right side)

 
               

SOLAR/ TERRESTRIAL EVENT- NOVEMBER-05 2013 . AR 11890 rotated in on the Eastern solar limb on Nov 05: It is- so solen.info - one of the largest regions observed during solar cycle 24 and has at least 2 magnetic delta structures. Situated near to a new formed unnumbered CH, AR 11890 was quite active today with an LDE,peaking with an M 1.5 x- ray burst at 08:39 UTC and a major CME, that headed into Southern direction and might have an earth directed flank. Other active regions to the South and North were involved in the LDE activity, . Integral proton flux however slightly increased again around 10 UTC- 2 hours after the event- thus protons had as speed this time of appr 27.000 km/ second. Activities in more than one active regions might interfer with another and cover Earth directed parts on satellite images,as minor CMEs parts would appear darker.

 

SOLAR/ EVENT- NOVEMBER-01-02 2013 . The impact of the CME cluster between October 26 and 28 has completed. Several major earthquakes occured during the impact. Sun spot related activities are still on the extraordinary high level they reached since since October 21, but seem to be gradually decreasing. AR 11884 ist the currently most active region on the solar disc and produced a major M 4.5 LDE on November 01 at around 22:30 UTC while crossing the central solar meridian. The event was coincident with eruptions in other aneighbored active regions such as rotating out AR 11887, which had a major outbreak ( that seemed to be an SEP) later. STEREO as well as SoHO ( img right) shows a fully halo CME after 05 UTC on NOV- 02 , that looked quite typically for SEPs seemed to involve the entire solar surface and spread into all directions. Lets wait and see whether the integral proton flux which just decreased to normal levels on Nov 01 will rise again later on Nov 02. This CME event however might become geoeffective on Nov 03- 04.

 
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       

 

 

 

click here to open and close collapsible panel with the archived "SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG" NOVEMBER 22- 30 2013

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

NOVEMBER

 

DAY:

30

 

     
                       

ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

   

TODAY`s EVENTS

 
                       
GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC      
  EPICENTER/ MAP    
highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>    

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.5 - DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO - 2013-11-30 19:20:16 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE > 1.21 S ; 26.82 E DEPTH > 10 kmv    

 

             
RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS: NONE ( DEFAULT) for current status, check out >
 
EARTHQUAKE REGIONS/ FROM 180° E ON WESTWARDS

TECTONICS:

FREQUENCY/ SINCE

REGION*

EPICENTER:

NUMBER

EVENT ( link to ESMC)  
GERMANY / NEAR TO KOBLENZ ( EIFEL VOLCANIC FIELD) EURASIA (volcanic) SELDOM

"E"

EPICENTER 01 M 3.2 - GERMANY - 2013-11-30 18:09:57 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report  
 

 

 

                   
NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES
 
This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >
         
             
                       

 

 

                     
TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS
             
                 
               
               
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
                   
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
INDIAN OCEAN:
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
                   
NOAA/ Hurricane Center NASA/ GOES NOAA usno.navy.mil METEOALARM METEOSAT

reports taken from:

 

 

 

               

HEADLINES

2013

NOVEMBER

 

         

(channel-news /asia)Some villagers living near Mount Sinabung unperturbed by eruption threat

Thousands of residents have been evacuated from a 5-kilometre exclusion zone around Mount Sinabung. But while authorities have announced the zone is off limits to anyone, some residents are still willing to risk their lives to protect whatever is left of their homes...read more...

( BBC- 20131130) Heavy rain in Cuba lashes Havana, killing two

Heavy rain has been battering Cuba since Friday, flooding streets and leaving at least two people dead. A number of buildings have collapsed in the capital, Havana, authorities say. A 54-year-old man and a 60-year-old woman are reported to have died as a house crumbled in central Havana. Up to 200mm (7.8in) of rain fell overnight and the Cuban meteorological service has forecast more heavy rain for Saturday, particularly in the western and central regions....read more...

( NASA/ CIOC)Comet ISON's Current Status:

Despite the promise that our last report held, comet ISON began to fade significantly in the hours immediately prior to perihelion. Before passing by the occulting disk in the center of the LASCO C2 field of view, there was no longer an obvious discernible nucleus, but the tail remained quite broad and "dense" compared to other sungrazers we've witnessed in this field of view. Following perihelion, a dusty trail appeared from the LASCO C2 occulter and, for the following approximately 24-hours, and very diffuse and dusty fan-shaped tail was visible with a diffuse central condensation that may or may not have contained a small remnant nucleus, or "rubble pile". A great many questions remain to be answered. ....read more...

(ISONcampaign) In ISON's Wake, a Trail of Questions           (ISONcampaign) In ISON's Wake, a Trail of Questions
         
               

 

 

           

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

 

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

   

SUNSPOT NUMBER

102

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

338-552

FLARES >

C

01

 

SOLAR FLUX (SFU)

131.2

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 3.5

 

M

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

08

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

55- 125 nT

HSS influence

X

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

/ CLASS/ CONF.*

ACTIVITIES/ or: . EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

IMPACT SIZE:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

rotated out (NOV21)

11900

     

 

 

 

 

 

   
faded (NOV17)

11901

71° - 85 ° W

24° S

CRO

 

 

 

 

 

   
faded (NOV19)

11902

34° - 47 ° W

19° N

AXX

             
rotating out (NOV30)

11903

82° - 96° W

11° S

HSX/ HRX

 

           
faded (NOV19)

11904

34° - 47 ° W

19° N

 

             
faded ( NOV28)

11905

34° - 20 ° E

19° N

 

NOV 27/28

           
 

11906

09° - 23 ° W

18° S

BXO

NOV 28

           
 

11907

23° - 37 ° W

09° S

EAC/ DAI

             
NEWLY EMERGED>

11908

17° - 03 ° E

26° S

DAO/ DSO

NOV 30            
NEWLY EMERGED>

11909

46° - 32 ° E

18° S

DKC/ DAC

DEC 02            
NEWLY EMERGED>

11910

39° - 53 ° W

00° N

AXX/ HRX

             

SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

03

 

 

           

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

                 
                       

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region            

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**            
*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson            
                       

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

Coronal Holes (CH) are darker regions on the Sun`s surface, where likely denser elements accumulate. Initially it was believed, that the solar gas hull would have there lower density, thus they would represent "holes" in the corona. Some coronal holes make giant magnetic loops reaching until the Eart s orbit, along those then high speed solar wind are kind of pumped through the geomag field back to the solar surface ( RECURRENT SOLAR WIND STREAMS)
 
NUMBER POSITION*: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING MAG &remarks  

CH 595

NORTHERN

DECAYING NOV- 28 DEC 02

 

 
             
                     
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

MEDIUM

SOURCE:

UNKNOWN (CH595?)

           
     

 

             
ABBREVIATIONS> NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT)          
RECURR.= RECURRENT T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL ext= extended UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH            
                     

Today`s USAF report on solar activity >>

                 
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec, 03 Dec)..      
             

OBSERVED SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY

                 

X-RAY/ SUNSPOTS >

LOW

ERUPTIONS >

LOW

           
FLUCTUATIONS IN SOLAR ACTIVITY

currently peaking ( yellow background):

 

             
SHORT PERIOD FLUCTUATION APPR. 1/2 YEAR FLUCTUATION 11 YEAR SUN SPOT CYCLE

60/ 120 YEAR CYCLE? (unknown)

           

OVERLAPSED

20131016

MARCH 2013

 

           
LAST PEAKS ^^
                 
                       
   

 

 

                 
INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX
           
                       

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT : LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:      
PROTON FLUX NORMAL

RISING AFTER NOV 28 14 UTC

ELECTRON FLUX NORMAL

SLIGHT INCREASE ON NOV 30

     
BEGIN/ END: 20131119

ongoing

 

BEGIN/ END: 20131119/ 08 UTC 20131122/ 10 UTC

 

 

     

 

 

                     

TERRESTRIAL

                 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

                 

 

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment /

GOES satellites are at geostationary orbit and measure influences / impacts on the geomagnetic field  

QUIET

         

UNSETTLED

     

ACTIVE

     

MINOR STORM

     

MAJOR STORM

     
       

CME IMPACT (

             
       
       
                       
Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>                    
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 526 km/s at 30/2037Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 30/2057Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 30/2055Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Dec), quiet to active levels on day two (02 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (03 Dec).      
                       

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES      

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT (2)

PAST 24 h

ALERTS AS ISSUED BY NOAA

   
R3

X RAY > M 5 (FLARE ACTIVITY)

NONE

NONE    

CME event

TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION NONE NONE    
 

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

NONE    
G 1

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

   
                     
GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS - 5 nT 1808 (USAF) NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 06 nT /1720 (USAF) The Bz component refers to the value, the geomagnetic fiels density fluctuates /shifts in North South direction  
EFFECTIVE PROTONS NO DATA

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

           
new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report.          
                       
                 

TODAY`S SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE IMPACTS

           
NOAA ELECTRONS> <NOAA PROTONS      
           
INTEGRAL PARTICLE FLUX:        

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS: (2)

     

> 10 MeV PROTONS(4)

+/ - 0.1 pfu.

+/ - 0.1 pfu.

NORMAL      
  CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):      

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS:

       

>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS (1)

>300< 5.000 pfu

>1.500< 4.000 pfu

RISING        

>2.0 MeV ELECTRONS(1)

06< 60 pfu

08< 30 pfu

RISING      
NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA

NO CURRENT DATA

UNKNOWN      
(2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values      
(4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu      

 

 

               

ACTIVE SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS (SEP)

STATUS: ACTIVE SEP          

LATEST GEOEFFECTIVE SEP:

2013 suggested TIME OF SOLAR SEP EVENT: NOVEMBER- 19- 2013 at 10:42 UTC      
SEP EVENT/ short event description> An X 1.0 LDE flare in AR 11893 peaking on NOV 19 at 10:42 UTC was associated to a major SEP    

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:
 

INTEGRAL 10 MeV PROTON FLUX:

20131119/ 10: 42 UTC 20131119/ 12:00 UTC 20131121/ 00:0= UTC 4 pfu.

27.700 km/second

ONLY SHORT EVENT  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  

INTEGRAL> 0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)

 

     

non yet

 

INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)

 

      none yet  

 

       
ABBREVIATIONS/ CLASS >
       

SOLAR STORMS (SAPor SEP ) ARE INTENSIVE EMISSIONS OF HIGH ACCELERATED SOLAR PARTICLES ( PROTON/ ELECTRONS)

       

* SAP OR:" SEP" = SOLAR ACCELERATED (OR: ENERGETIC) PARTICLES (PR., EL.)

         

 

 

     
(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS
SOURCES:
 
               

CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL EVENTS

LAST UPDATE

20131129    
                 
 
CH High Speed Solar wind Stream (HSS from decaying CH 594) X RAY > M 5 GEOMAGNETIC STORM

CME IMPACT

APPROACHING CMEs :

01?

 
      FILAMENT ERUPTION ON 20131127 estimated arrival (s)n > ---  

SEP EVENTS>

ACTIVE SEP

> 10 MeV PROTONS +/- 0.1 pfu. > 2 MeV ELECTRONS < 1.000 pfu
UNDER CME INFLUENCE
 
ACUMMULATION OF SUCCEEDING SEPS 20131119/ 10:42 UTC 20131120/19 UTC     slown down by protons previous SEP was overlapsed by new SEP events.  
                   
LATEST SIGNIFICANT SOLAR/ TERRESTRIAL EVENTS:    
       
SOLAR/ TERRESTRIAL EVENT- NOVEMBER-28 2013 . After the solar sun spot activity had reached on Nov 17 2013 with 282 counted spots the highest level found during this entire 24. Sun spot cycle, activity dropped again to a low value until Nov 19. Meanwhile also official scientists suggest, there might by a relation between these activities and weather/ climate on Earth. The cold wave with temepratures down to minus 15° C in Souther Bavaria that suddenly creaped over the Northern Hemisphere on Nov 18 however occured coincidently with the dropping x ray background activity (the main indicator for sun spot activity. But also another temperature anomaly ( as typical after SEP events) has formed a frontline above central Europe and the N Hemisphere with warmer winds/ temp. on its northern and colder winds/ temp. on its Southern side , bringing sub zero temperatures to the South and warm weather in the Northern parts of Europe. The current state of the latest SEP remains unclear, since proton flux continued from the interplanetary field until Nov 18 and alters the measured electron values those therefore are still unreadable.
     
         
SOLAR EVENT- NOVEMBER-19 2013 . 11903 [S11E62] produced an impressive and major X 1 LED flare peaking from 10:25 until 10: 42 UTC . The event was associated to a MINOR SEP..First Protons impacted after 12.00 UTC- 1,5 hours after the event with a resulting speed of about 27.700 km/ second., but began to decrease again later on NOV 19 The CME going off from the Southwestern limb moves - as STEREO A imagery shows- pretty much towards the ecliptic plane. Thus the CME might have minor earth directed parts, those would arrive- if- then- sometime on Nov. 21.
 

 

 

 

               

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

ORANGE BACKGROUND= " LATENCY" = LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE LATENT/ EXPECTABLE , BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER UNLIKELY- WATCH!  
             

ALERT LEVEL

         
C;ME IMPACT ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES TODAY

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

REMARKS AND/ OR PROBABILITY

 

 

30. NOVEMBER 2013
 

M 5.5 -7.0

2-3 CME IMPACT  
01. DECEMBER 2013  

M 5.5 -6.5

1-3 DECREASING ( ELECTRONS?)  
02 DECEMBER 2013  

M 5.5 -6.0

1-2 LATENCY ( ELECTRONS) -PRELIMINARY  

ABOUT LATENCIES:

   

INFLUENCES:

HIGHTENED ACTIVE ELECTRONS (+) PROTON IMPACT (SEP)- DECREASING  

EFFECTING AS >

INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS(/EARTHQUAKES: HIGHER  

NOTES:* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

(In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 
                 
 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20131029- 31

EFFECTIVE CMEs/ int. Nrs. >

CME CLUSTER: 42/13 a-d/ 43- 44/ 13    

ALERT LEVEL

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS: LATEST CME IMPACT REGIONS/ =EXPECTABLE EVENT REGIONS  

CME IMPACT

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES (+) PRIMARY REGIONS IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

BACKGROUND EVENTS:

 
 

INDUCED CURRENTS (+)

MAIN: SOUTH AMERICA LONGITUDES: 30° - 150° W ACCUMULATING SEP EVENTS!  

RADIO BLACKOUTS (PROTON INFLUENCE) LOW

SOUTH AMERICA

PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< NASCA

IMPACT HEMISPHERE:

 
SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS/ TORNADOES (currently low) CENTRAL AMERICA

ATLANTIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< CARRIBEAN >< COCOS

CENTRAL > SOUTH

 
WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) W- EUROPE/ E ATLANTIC

N- AMERICA ><EURASIA ><AFRICA

 

   
RAPIC MELTDOWNS ( GLACIERS, PERMAICE) NORTH AMERICA N- AMERICA >< J.D FUCA><PAC SEVERAL RECENT SAP EVENTS AND CMES HAVE ACCUMULATED A HIGH POTENTIAL OF (HEAT-) ENERGY WITHIN THE EARTH BODY!  

 

 

SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

SEP EFFECTS:

VOLCANIC HOT SPOT ACTIVITIES/ MAGMATIC TREMORS EURASIA/ EAST LONGITUDES : 90°- 15 ° E  

TECTONICS

PROTON ACCUMULATION AROUND SOUTHERN POLE (+ ) EAST AFRICA/ INDIA

N- AMERICA ><EURASIA ><AFRICA

 

EARTHQUAKES

TEMPERATURE ANOMALITIES NEAR NORTHERN POLE (EXPECTABLE)

PACIFIC ( LOWER)

LONGITUDES : 150 ° - 90° E *REGIONS> see definition below  

EARTHQUAKES

ELECTRONS HEATING TECTONIC PLATES (RISING)

VOLCANO/ HOT SPOT ACTIVITY >

HIGHER ON HOTSPOTS (-)  
  PROTONS: GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (-) ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY >>> INCREASING ( PROTON IMPACT))  
NOTES TO SEP EVENTS::               read also: NASA SCIENCE/ 2005:NASA - A New Kind of Solar Storm  
USUALLY, SEPS begin with an outburst of highly accelerated PROTONS from the Sun. First protons arrive from 15 minutes until, several hours after the event where they move along the geomagnetic field lines towards the Earth`s Southern geomag pole, causing ( depending on the intensity) temporary heat effects on the polar surface, atmosphere and "Earth axis" likely even deep within the Earth core, what ( statistically- see previous blogs to SEP) mostly leads almost synchronously to increased activities on so called hot spot volcanoes , already minutes , resp < 1 hour after the first protons began to impact. Protons storms can last days and accumulate with following SEPs. The integral electron flux will begin to rise/ become effective when proton impact decreases,and the temporary positive component they add to the geomag field begins to attrack electrons from the solar EM field. Electron accumulation can last for weeks (but following NEW SEPS will neutralise, resp just "surpress" electron effectivity) . Electron accumulation can have many effects: typical are: INTENSIVE thunderstorms and tornadoes , but also volcanic eruptions, higher temperatures and rel. droughts in the higher latitudes up to the (mainly NORTH) polar regions what weakens the sea currents , by a lower temperature difference. Heat between equatorals and polar regions then is exchanged more over the ATMOSPHERE and that brings heavy rain to the middle latitudes. Accumulated electrons also can cause induced currents even down to the ground, such as in power grids, but also pipelines and ( ship fires coincident with SEP impacts suggest, that CMEs also especially might induce currents through the salty ocean into SHIPS!!.) The effects of SEPs HOWEVER DIRECTLY depend on the intensity of the SEPs initial proton flux and its duration, and could be forecasted very well .Nevertheless -following SEPs can accumulate higher energies in terms of heating up the Earth core and mantle , that can`t be measured nor predicted but just estimated. In NOAA space weather predictions. mainly provided for satellite and airflight protection , integral > 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be real effective from a value of 10 pfu. upwards (= S1 solar storm) . In geophysical terms protons are effective at each level. . SEPS are the only known type of POTENTIAL DANGEROUS solar events (depending on their intensity) . They simply - as NASA expressed it : "CAN DO EVERYTHING"  
                     

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

NOVEMBER

 

DAY:

29

 

     
                       

ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

   

TODAY`s EVENTS

 
                       
GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC      
  EPICENTER/ MAP    
highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>    

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.1 - ARUNACHAL PRADESH, INDIA - 2013-11-29 01:54:45 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE > 28.97 N ; 95.92 E DEPTH > 10 km    

 

             
RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS: NONE ( DEFAULT) for current status, check out >
 
EARTHQUAKE REGIONS/ FROM 180° E ON WESTWARDS

TECTONICS:

FREQUENCY/ SINCE

REGION*

EPICENTER:

NUMBER

EVENT ( link to ESMC)  
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA/ KURIL ISLANDS / JAPAN N-AM. >< EUR. >< PAC.><PHIL. FREQUENT

"B"

EPICENTER 01

M 5.3 - ANATAHAN REG, N. MARIANA ISLANDS - 2013-11-29 01:44:22 UTC

 
PACIFIC/MAINLY WEST/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC. PAC. >< INDO- AUS FREQUENT

"B"

EPICENTER 01 M 5.5 - SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS - 2013-11-29 11:52:59 UTC  
REGION CHILE /CONTINUING EARTHQUAKE SWARM SOUTH AMERICA >< NASZA 20131128

"D"

EPICENTER 17 x > M 3 M 4.9 - OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE - 2013-11-29 05:21:33 UTC  
PANAMERICA N & SOUTH AMERICA >< COCOS SOMETIMES

"D"

EPICENTER 01 M 5.3 - SOUTH OF PANAMA - 2013-11-29 09:18:52 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report  
 

 

 

                   
NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES
 
This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >
         
             
                       

 

 

                     
TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS
             
                 
               
               
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
Invest 90L NOV- 28- 2013 NORTHERN ATLANTIC 35 MPH () 39.1° W 25.2° N
600 KM NORTHWEST OF CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
NW
L
 
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
INDIAN OCEAN:
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
                   
NOAA/ Hurricane Center NASA/ GOES NOAA usno.navy.mil METEOALARM METEOSAT

reports taken from:

 

 

 

               

HEADLINES

2013

NOVEMBER

 

         
 

 

             
         
               

 

 

           

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

 

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

   

SUNSPOT NUMBER

95

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

270-408

FLARES >

C

01

 

SOLAR FLUX (SFU)

128.5

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 3.5

 

M

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

06

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

35- 125 nT

weak CME impact

X

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

/ CLASS/ CONF.*

ACTIVITIES/ or: . EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

IMPACT SIZE:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

rotated out (NOV21)

11900

     

 

 

 

 

 

   
faded (NOV17)

11901

71° - 85 ° W

24° S

CRO

 

 

 

 

 

   
faded (NOV19)

11902

34° - 47 ° W

19° N

AXX

             
 

11903

68° - 82° W

11° S

 

 

           
faded (NOV19)

11904

34° - 47 ° W

19° N

 

             
faded ( NOV28)

11905

34° - 20 ° E

19° N

 

NOV 27/28

           
 

11906

05° E - 09 ° W

18° S

 

NOV 28

           
 

11907

09° - 23 ° W

09° S

 

             
NEWLY EMERGED>

11908

31° - 17 ° E

26° S

 

NOV 30            
NEWLY EMERGED>

11909

60° - 46 ° E

18° S

 

DEC 02            
NEWLY EMERGED>

11910

25° - 39 ° W

00° N

 

             

SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

08

 

 

           

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

                 
                       

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region            

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**            
*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson            
                       

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

Coronal Holes (CH) are darker regions on the Sun`s surface, where likely denser elements accumulate. Initially it was believed, that the solar gas hull would have there lower density, thus they would represent "holes" in the corona. Some coronal holes make giant magnetic loops reaching until the Eart s orbit, along those then high speed solar wind are kind of pumped through the geomag field back to the solar surface ( RECURRENT SOLAR WIND STREAMS)
 
NUMBER POSITION*: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING MAG &remarks  

CH UNN.

NORTHERN

CLOSED    

 

 
             
                     
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

           
     

 

             
ABBREVIATIONS> NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT)          
RECURR.= RECURRENT T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL ext= extended UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH            
                     

Today`s USAF report on solar activity >>

                 
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 29/1006Z from Region 1907 (S09W22). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec). .      
             

OBSERVED SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY

                 

X-RAY/ SUNSPOTS >

LOW

ERUPTIONS >

LOW

           
FLUCTUATIONS IN SOLAR ACTIVITY

currently peaking ( yellow background):

 

             
SHORT PERIOD FLUCTUATION APPR. 1/2 YEAR FLUCTUATION 11 YEAR SUN SPOT CYCLE

60/ 120 YEAR CYCLE? (unknown)

           

OVERLAPSED

20131016

MARCH 2013

 

           
LAST PEAKS ^^
                 
   

 

 

                 
INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX
           
                       

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT : LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:      
PROTON FLUX NORMAL

RISING AFTER X 1 /SEPevent from NOV 19- 25

ELECTRON FLUX NORMAL

INCREASE AFTER X 1 event on 20131119/and 20131121/ 02 UTC

     
BEGIN/ END: 20131119

ongoing

 

BEGIN/ END: 20131119/ 08 UTC 20131122/ 10 UTC

 

 

     

 

 

                     

TERRESTRIAL

                 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

                 

 

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment /

GOES satellites are at geostationary orbit and measure influences / impacts on the geomagnetic field  

QUIET

         

UNSETTLED

     

ACTIVE

     

MINOR STORM

     

MAJOR STORM

     
       

MINOR CME IMPACT

             
       
       
                       
Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>                    
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 363 km/s at 29/1852Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 29/1603Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 29/1253Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (30 Nov, 01 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Dec).      
                       

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES      

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT (2)

PAST 24 h

ALERTS AS ISSUED BY NOAA

   
R3

X RAY > M 5 (FLARE ACTIVITY)

NONE

NONE    

CME event

TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION NONE NONE    
 

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

NONE    
G 1

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

   
                     
GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS - 5 nT 1808 (USAF) NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 06 nT /1720 (USAF) The Bz component refers to the value, the geomagnetic fiels density fluctuates /shifts in North South direction  
EFFECTIVE PROTONS NO DATA

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

           
new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report.          
                       
                 

TODAY`S SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE IMPACTS

           
NOAA ELECTRONS> <NOAA PROTONS      
           
INTEGRAL PARTICLE FLUX:        

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS: (2)

     

> 10 MeV PROTONS(4)

+/ - 0.1 pfu.

+/ - 0.1 pfu.

NORMAL      
  CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):      

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS:

       

>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS (1)

>1.500< 4.000 pfu

>900< 3.000 pfu

RISING        

>2.0 MeV ELECTRONS(1)

08< 30 pfu

05< 27 pfu

RISING      
NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA

NO CURRENT DATA

UNKNOWN      
(2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values      
(4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu      

 

 

               

ACTIVE SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS (SEP)

STATUS: ACTIVE SEP          

LATEST GEOEFFECTIVE SEP:

2013 suggested TIME OF SOLAR SEP EVENT: NOVEMBER- 19- 2013 at 10:42 UTC      
SEP EVENT/ short event description> An X 1.0 LDE flare in AR 11893 peaking on NOV 19 at 10:42 UTC was associated to a major SEP    

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:
 

INTEGRAL 10 MeV PROTON FLUX:

20131119/ 10: 42 UTC 20131119/ 12:00 UTC 20131121/ 00:0= UTC 4 pfu.

27.700 km/second

ONLY SHORT EVENT  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  

INTEGRAL> 0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)

 

     

non yet

 

INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)

 

      none yet  

 

       
ABBREVIATIONS/ CLASS >
       

SOLAR STORMS (SAPor SEP ) ARE INTENSIVE EMISSIONS OF HIGH ACCELERATED SOLAR PARTICLES ( PROTON/ ELECTRONS)

       

* SAP OR:" SEP" = SOLAR ACCELERATED (OR: ENERGETIC) PARTICLES (PR., EL.)

         

 

 

     
(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS
SOURCES:
 
               

CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL EVENTS

LAST UPDATE

20131129    
                 
 
CH High Speed Solar wind Stream (HSS from decaying CH 594) X RAY > M 5 GEOMAGNETIC STORM

CME IMPACT

APPROACHING CMEs :

01?

 
      FILAMENT ERUPTION ON 20131127 estimated arrival (s)n > ---  

SEP EVENTS>

ACTIVE SEP

> 10 MeV PROTONS +/- 0.1 pfu. > 2 MeV ELECTRONS < 1.000 pfu
UNDER CME INFLUENCE
 
ACUMMULATION OF SUCCEEDING SEPS 20131119/ 10:42 UTC 20131120/19 UTC     slown down by protons previous SEP was overlapsed by new SEP events.  
                   
LATEST SIGNIFICANT SOLAR/ TERRESTRIAL EVENTS:    
       
SOLAR/ TERRESTRIAL EVENT- NOVEMBER-28 2013 . After the solar sun spot activity had reached on Nov 17 2013 with 282 counted spots the highest level found during this entire 24. Sun spot cycle, activity dropped again to a low value until Nov 19. Meanwhile also official scientists suggest, there might by a relation between these activities and weather/ climate on Earth. The cold wave with temepratures down to minus 15° C in Souther Bavaria that suddenly creaped over the Northern Hemisphere on Nov 18 however occured coincidently with the dropping x ray background activity (the main indicator for sun spot activity. But also another temperature anomaly ( as typical after SEP events) has formed a frontline above central Europe and the N Hemisphere with warmer winds/ temp. on its northern and colder winds/ temp. on its Southern side , bringing sub zero temperatures to the South and warm weather in the Northern parts of Europe. The current state of the latest SEP remains unclear, since proton flux continued from the interplanetary field until Nov 18 and alters the measured electron values those therefore are still unreadable.
     
         
SOLAR EVENT- NOVEMBER-19 2013 . 11903 [S11E62] produced an impressive and major X 1 LED flare peaking from 10:25 until 10: 42 UTC . The event was associated to a MINOR SEP..First Protons impacted after 12.00 UTC- 1,5 hours after the event with a resulting speed of about 27.700 km/ second., but began to decrease again later on NOV 19 The CME going off from the Southwestern limb moves - as STEREO A imagery shows- pretty much towards the ecliptic plane. Thus the CME might have minor earth directed parts, those would arrive- if- then- sometime on Nov. 21.
 

 

 

 

               

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

ORANGE BACKGROUND= " LATENCY" = LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE LATENT/ EXPECTABLE , BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER UNLIKELY- WATCH!  
             

ALERT LEVEL

         
C;ME IMPACT ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES TODAY

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

REMARKS AND/ OR PROBABILITY

 

 

29. NOVEMBER 2013
 

M 5.5 -7.5

2-3 CME IMPACT  
30. NOVEMBER 2013  

M 5.5 -7.0

1-2 DECREASING ( ELECTRONS)  
01. DECEMBER 2013  

M 5.5 -6.0

1-2 LATENCY ( ELECTRONS) -PRELIMINARY  

ABOUT LATENCIES:

   

INFLUENCES:

HIGHTENED ACTIVE ELECTRONS (+) PROTON IMPACT (SEP)- DECREASING  

EFFECTING AS >

INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS(/EARTHQUAKES: HIGHER  

NOTES:* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

(In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 
                 
 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20131029- 31

EFFECTIVE CMEs/ int. Nrs. >

CME CLUSTER: 42/13 a-d/ 43- 44/ 13    

ALERT LEVEL

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS: LATEST CME IMPACT REGIONS/ =EXPECTABLE EVENT REGIONS  

CME IMPACT

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES (+) PRIMARY REGIONS IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

BACKGROUND EVENTS:

 
 

INDUCED CURRENTS (+)

MAIN: SOUTH AMERICA LONGITUDES: 30° - 150° W ACCUMULATING SEP EVENTS!  

RADIO BLACKOUTS (PROTON INFLUENCE) LOW

SOUTH AMERICA

PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< NASCA

IMPACT HEMISPHERE:

 
SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS/ TORNADOES (currently low) CENTRAL AMERICA

ATLANTIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< CARRIBEAN >< COCOS

CENTRAL > SOUTH

 
WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) W- EUROPE/ E ATLANTIC

N- AMERICA ><EURASIA ><AFRICA

 

   
RAPIC MELTDOWNS ( GLACIERS, PERMAICE) NORTH AMERICA N- AMERICA >< J.D FUCA><PAC SEVERAL RECENT SAP EVENTS AND CMES HAVE ACCUMULATED A HIGH POTENTIAL OF (HEAT-) ENERGY WITHIN THE EARTH BODY!  

 

 

SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

SEP EFFECTS:

VOLCANIC HOT SPOT ACTIVITIES/ MAGMATIC TREMORS EURASIA/ EAST LONGITUDES : 90°- 15 ° E  

TECTONICS

PROTON ACCUMULATION AROUND SOUTHERN POLE (+ ) EAST AFRICA/ INDIA

N- AMERICA ><EURASIA ><AFRICA

 

EARTHQUAKES

TEMPERATURE ANOMALITIES NEAR NORTHERN POLE (EXPECTABLE)

PACIFIC ( LOWER)

LONGITUDES : 150 ° - 90° E *REGIONS> see definition below  

EARTHQUAKES

ELECTRONS HEATING TECTONIC PLATES (RISING)

VOLCANO/ HOT SPOT ACTIVITY >

HIGHER ON HOTSPOTS (-)  
  PROTONS: GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (-) ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY >>> INCREASING ( PROTON IMPACT))  
NOTES TO SEP EVENTS::               read also: NASA SCIENCE/ 2005:NASA - A New Kind of Solar Storm  
USUALLY, SEPS begin with an outburst of highly accelerated PROTONS from the Sun. First protons arrive from 15 minutes until, several hours after the event where they move along the geomagnetic field lines towards the Earth`s Southern geomag pole, causing ( depending on the intensity) temporary heat effects on the polar surface, atmosphere and "Earth axis" likely even deep within the Earth core, what ( statistically- see previous blogs to SEP) mostly leads almost synchronously to increased activities on so called hot spot volcanoes , already minutes , resp < 1 hour after the first protons began to impact. Protons storms can last days and accumulate with following SEPs. The integral electron flux will begin to rise/ become effective when proton impact decreases,and the temporary positive component they add to the geomag field begins to attrack electrons from the solar EM field. Electron accumulation can last for weeks (but following NEW SEPS will neutralise, resp just "surpress" electron effectivity) . Electron accumulation can have many effects: typical are: INTENSIVE thunderstorms and tornadoes , but also volcanic eruptions, higher temperatures and rel. droughts in the higher latitudes up to the (mainly NORTH) polar regions what weakens the sea currents , by a lower temperature difference. Heat between equatorals and polar regions then is exchanged more over the ATMOSPHERE and that brings heavy rain to the middle latitudes. Accumulated electrons also can cause induced currents even down to the ground, such as in power grids, but also pipelines and ( supposed: SHIPS!!.) The effects of SEPs HOWEVER DIRECTLY depend on the intensity of the SEPs initial proton flux and its duration, and could be forecasted very well .Nevertheless -following SEPs can accumulate higher energies in terms of heating up the Earth core and mantle , that can`t be measured nor predicted but just estimated. In NOAA space weather predictions. mainly provided for satellite and airflight protection , integral > 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be real effective from a value of 10 pfu. upwards (= S1 solar storm) . In geophysical terms protons are effective at each level. . SEPS are the only known type of POTENTIAL DANGEROUS solar events (depending on their intensity) . They simply - as NASA expressed it : "CAN DO EVERYTHING"  
                     

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

NOVEMBER

 

DAY:

28

 

     
                       

ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

   

TODAY`s EVENTS

 
                       
GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC      
  EPICENTER/ MAP    
highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>    

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.6 - SOUTHERN IRAN - 2013-11-28 13:51:36 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE > 29.49 N ; 51.41 E DEPTH > 10 km    

 

             
RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS: NONE ( DEFAULT) for current status, check out >
 
EARTHQUAKE REGIONS/ FROM 180° E ON WESTWARDS

TECTONICS:

FREQUENCY/ SINCE

REGION*

EPICENTER:

NUMBER

EVENT ( link to ESMC)  
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA/ KURIL ISLANDS / JAPAN N-AM. >< EUR. >< PAC.><PHIL. FREQUENT

"B"

EPICENTER 01 M 5.0 - NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN - 2013-11-28 16:15:04 UTC  
REGION INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES/ INDIA EUR.>< / INDO- AUS. FREQUENT

"A"

EPICENTER 01 M 5.0 - NIAS REGION, INDONESIA - 2013-11-28 16:02:54 UTC  
ARABIC PLATE -/AFTERQUAKES SOUTHERN IRAN AFR><ARAB >< EUR><INDO-AUS FREQUENT

"F"

EPICENTER 03 X > M 3,5 M 4.5 - SOUTHERN IRAN - 2013-11-28 15:56:46 UTC  
AFRICA- MAINLY RED SEA REGION & INDIAN OCEAN EUR>< AFR>< AM. ><PAC>< ANTARC. SELDOM

"F"

EPICENTER 01 M 5.0 - INDIAN OCEAN TRIPLE JUNCTION - 2013-11-28 15:44:05 UTC  
CONTINENTAL EURASIA INCLUDING ASIA N-AM. ><EUR->< AFR.><PAC> SELDOM

"E"/"F

EPICENTER 01 M 5.0 - YUNNAN, CHINA - 2013-11-28 08:23:54 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report  
 

 

 

                   
NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES
 
This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >
         
             
                       

 

 

                     
TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS
             
                 
               
               
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
                   
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
INDIAN OCEAN:
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
Tropical Cyclone Lehar NOV- 22- 2013 NORTHERN INDIAN OCEAN 85 MPH (+) 90.8° E 12.3° N
300 km WEST OF ANDAMAN NICOBAR ISLANDS
WNW
TS
 
                   
                   
NOAA/ Hurricane Center NASA/ GOES NOAA usno.navy.mil METEOALARM METEOSAT

reports taken from:

 

 

 

               

HEADLINES

2013

NOVEMBER

 

         
 

 

             
         
               

 

 

           

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

 

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

   

SUNSPOT NUMBER

100

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

270-315

FLARES >

C

04

 

SOLAR FLUX (SFU)

132.9

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 5.0

 

M

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

01

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

87- 120 nT

weak CME impact

X

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

/ CLASS/ CONF.*

ACTIVITIES/ or: . EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

IMPACT SIZE:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

rotating out ( Nov 23)

11896

     

 

 

 

 

 

   
faded (NOV17)

11898

37° - 51 ° W

27° S

BXO/

 

 

 

 

 

   
rotated out (NOV 25)

11899

     

 

           
rotated out (NOV21)

11900

     

 

           
faded (NOV17)

11901

71° - 85 ° W

24° S

CRO

             
faded (NOV19)

11902

34° - 47 ° W

19° N

AXX

             
 

11903

43° - 57° W

11° S

CSO

 

           
faded (NOV19)

11904

34° - 47 ° W

19° N

AXX

             
 

11905

34° - 20 ° E

19° N

BXO/ CRO

NOV 27/28

           
 

11906

29° - 14 ° E

18° S

BXO

NOV 27/28

           
NEWLY EMERGED>

11907

18° - 04 ° E

09° S

DRO/ DRI

NOV 27/28

           

SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

08

 

 

           

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

                 
                       

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region            

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**            
*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson            
                       

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

     
NUMBER POSITION*: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING MAG &remarks            

CH UNN.

NORTHERN

WAS LARGE BUT QUICKLY DECAYED    

 

         
                     
                     
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

           
     

 

             
ABBREVIATIONS> NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT)          
RECURR.= RECURRENT T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL ext= extended UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH            
                     

Today`s USAF report on solar activity >>

                 
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 28/0041Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov, 01 Dec)..      
             

OBSERVED SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY

                 

X-RAY/ SUNSPOTS >

LOW

ERUPTIONS >

LOW

           
FLUCTUATIONS IN SOLAR ACTIVITY

currently peaking ( yellow background):

 

             
SHORT PERIOD FLUCTUATION APPR. 1/2 YEAR FLUCTUATION 11 YEAR SUN SPOT CYCLE

60/ 120 YEAR CYCLE? (unknown)

           

OVERLAPSED

20131016

MARCH 2013

 

           
LAST PEAKS ^^
                 
                       
             
                       
   

 

 

                 
INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX
           
                       

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT : LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:      
PROTON FLUX NORMAL

RISING AFTER X 1 /SEPevent from NOV 19- 25

ELECTRON FLUX NORMAL

INCREASE AFTER X 1 event on 20131119/and 20131121/ 02 UTC

     
BEGIN/ END: 20131119

ongoing

 

BEGIN/ END: 20131119/ 08 UTC 20131122/ 10 UTC

 

 

     

 

 

                     

TERRESTRIAL

                 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

                 

 

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment /

         

QUIET

         

UNSETTLED

     

ACTIVE

     

MINOR STORM

     

MAJOR STORM

     
       

CME IMPACT (ongoing)

             
       
       
                       
Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>                    
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 339 km/s at 28/0541Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 28/1720Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 28/1808Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov, 01 Dec).      
                       

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES      

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT (2)

PAST 24 h

ALERTS AS ISSUED BY NOAA

   
R3

X RAY > M 5 (FLARE ACTIVITY)

NONE

NONE    

CME event

TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION NONE NONE    
 

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

NONE    
G 1

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

   
                     
GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS - 2 nT at 09:50 UTC NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 05 nT at 09:19 UTC            
EFFECTIVE PROTONS NO DATA

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

           
new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report.          
                       
             
   

TODAY`S SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE IMPACTS

           
NOAA ELECTRONS> <NOAA PROTONS      
           
INTEGRAL PARTICLE FLUX:        

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS: (2)

     

> 10 MeV PROTONS(4)

+/ - 0.1 pfu.

+/ - 0.1 pfu.

NORMAL      
  CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):      

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS:

       

>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS (1)

>900< 3.000 pfu

>800< 3.000 pfu

RISING        

>2.0 MeV ELECTRONS(1)

05< 27 pfu

06< 25 pfu

RISING      
NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA

NO CURRENT DATA

UNKNOWN      
(2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values      
(4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu      

 

 

               

ACTIVE SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS (SEP)

STATUS: ACTIVE SEP          

LATEST GEOEFFECTIVE SEP:

2013 suggested TIME OF SOLAR SEP EVENT: NOVEMBER- 19- 2013 at 10:42 UTC      
SEP EVENT/ short event description> An X 1.0 LDE flare in AR 11893 peaking on NOV 19 at 10:42 UTC was associated to a major SEP    

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:
 

INTEGRAL 10 MeV PROTON FLUX:

20131119/ 10: 42 UTC 20131119/ 12:00 UTC 20131121/ 00:0= UTC 4 pfu.

27.700 km/second

ONLY SHORT EVENT  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  

INTEGRAL> 0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)

 

     

non yet

 

INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)

 

      none yet  

 

       
ABBREVIATIONS/ CLASS >
       

SOLAR STORMS (SAPor SEP ) ARE INTENSIVE EMISSIONS OF HIGH ACCELERATED SOLAR PARTICLES ( PROTON/ ELECTRONS)

       

* SAP OR:" SEP" = SOLAR ACCELERATED (OR: ENERGETIC) PARTICLES (PR., EL.)

         

 

 

     
(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS
SOURCES:
 
               

CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL EVENTS

LAST UPDATE

20131127    
                 
 
CH High Speed Solar wind Stream (HSS from decaying CH 594) X RAY > M 5 GEOMAGNETIC STORM

CME IMPACT

APPROACHING CMEs :

01?

 
       
estimated arrival (s):
201311121  

SEP EVENTS>

ACTIVE SEP

> 10 MeV PROTONS +/- 0.1 pfu. > 2 MeV ELECTRONS < 1.000 pfu
RISING/ EXPECTED TO EXCEED 1000 pfu in 3- 5 days
 
ACUMMULATION OF SUCCEEDING SEPS 20131119/ 10:42 UTC 20131120/19 UTC     slown down by protons previous SEP was overlapsed by new SEP events.  
                   
LATEST SIGNIFICANT SOLAR/ TERRESTRIAL EVENTS:            
SOLAR EVENT- NOVEMBER-23 2013 . AR 11899, the currently largest sun spot was quiet when it rotated over the solar disc. Now, when it arrived below GEMINI ( same as AR 11895 did before) it became suddenly very active with lots of flares on November 23; The line from Gemini (with Sirius below the ecliptic plane ) to the Sun further into Sagittarius from where it leads right into the massive center of our Milky Way, is (as all statistics show) among the celestial constellations ,those influence by a gravity not only the course of the Sun and its planets incl thier moons but- as statistics indicate- obviously also it flare activities. The Earth crosses this line between Gemini, the Sun and Sagittarius twice a year during both soltices, next time from December 19 until January 14- 2014 with the e Sun standing in front of Sagittarius . Then- as each year. Stronger Earth directed CMEs SHOULD BE EXCPECTED as very likelyduring this time
       
         
SOLAR EVENT- NOVEMBER-19 2013 . 11903 [S11E62] produced an impressive and major X 1 LED flare peaking from 10:25 until 10: 42 UTC . The event was associated to a MINOR SEP..First Protons impacted after 12.00 UTC- 1,5 hours after the event with a resulting speed of about 27.700 km/ second., but began to decrease again later on NOV 19 The CME going off from the Southwestern limb moves - as STEREO A imagery shows- pretty much towards the ecliptic plane. Thus the CME might have minor earth directed parts, those would arrive- if- then- sometime on Nov. 21.
 

 

 

 

               

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

ORANGE BACKGROUND= " LATENCY" = LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE LATENT/ EXPECTABLE , BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER UNLIKELY- WATCH!  
             

ALERT LEVEL

         
EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES TODAY

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

REMARKS AND/ OR PROBABILITY

 

 

28. NOVEMBER 2013
 

M 5.5 -6.5

1-2 DECREASING ( EFF. ELECTRONS)  
29. NOVEMBER 2013  

M 5.5 -7.0

1-3 CME IMPACT  
30 NOVEMBER 2013  

M 5.5 -6.0

1-2 -PRELIMINARY  

ABOUT LATENCIES:

   

INFLUENCES:

HIGHTENED ACTIVE ELECTRONS (+) PROTON IMPACT (SEP)- DECREASING  

EFFECTING AS >

INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS(/EARTHQUAKES: HIGHER  

NOTES:* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

(In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 
                 
 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20131029- 31

EFFECTIVE CMEs/ int. Nrs. >

CME CLUSTER: 42/13 a-d/ 43- 44/ 13    

ALERT LEVEL

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS: LATEST CME IMPACT REGIONS/ =EXPECTABLE EVENT REGIONS  

CME IMPACT

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES (+) PRIMARY REGIONS IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

BACKGROUND EVENTS:

 
 

INDUCED CURRENTS (+)

MAIN: SOUTH AMERICA LONGITUDES: 30° - 150° W ACCUMULATING SEP EVENTS!  

RADIO BLACKOUTS (PROTON INFLUENCE) LOW

SOUTH AMERICA

PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< NASCA

IMPACT HEMISPHERE:

 
SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS/ TORNADOES (currently low) CENTRAL AMERICA

ATLANTIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< CARRIBEAN >< COCOS

CENTRAL > SOUTH

 
WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) W- EUROPE/ E ATLANTIC

N- AMERICA ><EURASIA ><AFRICA

 

   
RAPIC MELTDOWNS ( GLACIERS, PERMAICE) NORTH AMERICA N- AMERICA >< J.D FUCA><PAC SEVERAL RECENT SAP EVENTS AND CMES HAVE ACCUMULATED A HIGH POTENTIAL OF (HEAT-) ENERGY WITHIN THE EARTH BODY!  

 

 

SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

SEP EFFECTS:

VOLCANIC HOT SPOT ACTIVITIES/ MAGMATIC TREMORS EURASIA/ EAST LONGITUDES : 90°- 15 ° E  

TECTONICS

PROTON ACCUMULATION AROUND SOUTHERN POLE (+ ) EAST AFRICA/ INDIA

N- AMERICA ><EURASIA ><AFRICA

 

EARTHQUAKES

TEMPERATURE ANOMALITIES NEAR NORTHERN POLE (EXPECTABLE)

PACIFIC ( LOWER)

LONGITUDES : 150 ° - 90° E *REGIONS> see definition below  

EARTHQUAKES

ELECTRONS HEATING TECTONIC PLATES (RISING)

VOLCANO/ HOT SPOT ACTIVITY >

HIGHER ON HOTSPOTS (-)  
  PROTONS: GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (-) ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY >>> INCREASING ( PROTON IMPACT))  
NOTES TO SEP EVENTS::               read also: NASA SCIENCE/ 2005:NASA - A New Kind of Solar Storm  
USUALLY, SEPS begin with an outburst of highly accelerated PROTONS from the Sun. First protons arrive from 15 minutes until, several hours after the event where they move along the geomagnetic field lines towards the Earth`s Southern geomag pole, causing ( depending on the intensity) temporary heat effects on the polar surface, atmosphere and "Earth axis" likely even deep within the Earth core, what ( statistically- see previous blogs to SEP) mostly leads almost synchronously to increased activities on so called hot spot volcanoes , already minutes , resp < 1 hour after the first protons began to impact. Protons storms can last days and accumulate with following SEPs. The integral electron flux will begin to rise/ become effective when proton impact decreases,and the temporary positive component they add to the geomag field begins to attrack electrons from the solar EM field. Electron accumulation can last for weeks (but following NEW SEPS will neutralise, resp just "surpress" electron effectivity) . Electron accumulation can have many effects: typical are: INTENSIVE thunderstorms and tornadoes , but also volcanic eruptions, higher temperatures and rel. droughts in the higher latitudes up to the (mainly NORTH) polar regions what weakens the sea currents , by a lower temperature difference. Heat between equatorals and polar regions then is exchanged more over the ATMOSPHERE and that brings heavy rain to the middle latitudes. Accumulated electrons also can cause induced currents even down to the ground, such as in power grids, but also pipelines and ( supposed: SHIPS!!.) The effects of SEPs HOWEVER DIRECTLY depend on the intensity of the SEPs initial proton flux and its duration, and could be forecasted very well .Nevertheless -following SEPs can accumulate higher energies in terms of heating up the Earth core and mantle , that can`t be measured nor predicted but just estimated. In NOAA space weather predictions. mainly provided for satellite and airflight protection , integral > 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be real effective from a value of 10 pfu. upwards (= S1 solar storm) . In geophysical terms protons are effective at each level. . SEPS are the only known type of POTENTIAL DANGEROUS solar events (depending on their intensity) . They simply - as NASA expressed it : "CAN DO EVERYTHING"  
                     

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

NOVEMBER

 

DAY:

27

 

     
                       

ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

   

TODAY`s EVENTS

 
                       
GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC      
  EPICENTER/ MAP    
highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>    

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.0 - INDIAN OCEAN TRIPLE JUNCTION - 2013-11-27 14:26:48 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE > 25.48 S ; 69.87 E DEPTH > 15 km    

 

               
RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS: NONE ( DEFAULT) for current status, check out >
 
EARTHQUAKE REGIONS/ FROM 180° E ON WESTWARDS

TECTONICS:

FREQUENCY/ SINCE

REGION*

EPICENTER:

NUMBER

EVENT ( link to ESMC)  
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA/ KURIL ISLANDS / JAPAN N-AM. >< EUR. >< PAC.><PHIL. FREQUENT

"B"

EPICENTER  

M 5.0 - HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION - 2013-11-27 17:45:51 UTC

 
ARABIC PLATE -SYRIA, IRAQ ETC. INCL. IRAN AFR><ARAB >< EUR><INDO-AUS FREQUENT

"F"

EPICENTER   M 4.7 - STRAIT OF HORMUZ - 2013-11-27 07:25:43 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report  
 

 

 

                   
NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES
 
This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >
         
volcano-discovery/gadget

note: this report does NOT necessarely represent all currently global active volcanoes!

   

20131105

report by:

GVP  

 

Smithsonian Institution / USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report

Activity for the week of 20 November-26 November 2013

The Smithsonian page is updated on Wednesdays. Please see the GVP Home Page for news of the latest significant activity.

 

NEW ACTIVITIES/ UPDATES:

ONGOING ACTIVITIES/ UPDATES:

 
Etna Sicily (Italy) New
Kliuchevskoi Central Kamchatka (Russia) New
Nishino-shima Japan New
Sinabung Indonesia New
Chirinkotan Kuril Islands (Russia) Ongoing
Chirpoi Kuril Islands (Russia) Ongoing
Copahue Central Chile-Argentina border Ongoing
Fuego Guatemala Ongoing
Karymsky Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) Ongoing
Kilauea Hawaiian Islands (USA) Ongoing
Sakurajima Kyushu (Japan) Ongoing
Shiveluch Central Kamchatka (Russia) Ongoing
Ulawun New Britian (Papua New Guinea) Ongoing
 
  The Smithsonian was closed due to a United States federal government shutdown on Oct- 02- 2013. On October 21- 2013, Global Volcanism Program staff could return to work : First new vulcanism update was issued on Oct- 23- 2013  
     
             
                       

 

 

                     
TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS
             
                 
               
               
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
                   
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
INDIAN OCEAN:
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
Tropical Cyclone Lehar NOV- 22- 2013 NORTHERN INDIAN OCEAN 40 MPH (-) 82.9° E 14.7° N
< 200 km EAST OF GUNDOR/ SOUTHWEST INDIA
WNW
TC
 
Tropical Cyclone Alessia

reemerged- Nov 27

SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN 35 MPH () 137.7° E 16.5° N
NEAR THE COAST OF NE NORTHERN TERRETORY/ AUS
S
TC
 
                   
NOAA/ Hurricane Center NASA/ GOES NOAA usno.navy.mil METEOALARM METEOSAT

reports taken from:

 

 

 

               

HEADLINES

2013

NOVEMBER

 

         

 

( MODIS/ 20131124) WINTER STORM STALLS THANKSGIVING TRAVEL            
         
               

 

 

           

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

 

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

   

SUNSPOT NUMBER

76

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

270-343

FLARES >

C

01

 

SOLAR FLUX (SFU)

129.0

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 4.6

 

M

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

03

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

85- 112 nT

weak CME impact

X

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

/ CLASS/ CONF.*

ACTIVITIES/ or: . EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

IMPACT SIZE:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

rotated out (NOV 25)

11899

     

 

 

 

 

 

   
rotated out (NOV21)

11900

     

 

 

 

 

 

   
faded (NOV17)

11901

71° - 85 ° W

24° S

CRO

             
faded (NOV19)

11902

34° - 47 ° W

19° N

AXX

             
 

11903

57° - 71° W

11° S

CSO/ HSX

 

           
faded (NOV19)

11904

34° - 47 ° W

19° N

AXX

             
 

11905

19° - 05 ° E

19° N

BXO

NOV 27/28

           
 

11906

13° E - 01 ° W

18° S

BXO

NOV 27/28

           
 

11907

04° E - 10 ° W

09° S

DAO/ DAI

NOV 27/28

           
NEWLY EMERGED>

11908

42° - 28 ° E

26° S

DAO/ DAI

NOV 30

           
NEWLY EMERGED>

11909

73° - 59 ° E

18° S

DSO/ DAC

NOV 27/28

           

SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

08

 

 

           

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

                 
                       

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region            

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**            
*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson            
                       

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

     
NUMBER POSITION*: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING MAG &remarks            

CH UNN.

NORTHERN

SMALL/ DECAYING    

 

         
                     
                     
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

           
     

 

             
ABBREVIATIONS> NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT)          
RECURR.= RECURRENT T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL ext= extended UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH            
                     

Today`s USAF report on solar activity >>

                 
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 27/1539Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov, 30 Nov).      
             

OBSERVED SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY

                 

X-RAY/ SUNSPOTS >

LOW

ERUPTIONS >

LOW

           
FLUCTUATIONS IN SOLAR ACTIVITY

currently peaking ( yellow background):

 

             
SHORT PERIOD FLUCTUATION APPR. 1/2 YEAR FLUCTUATION 11 YEAR SUN SPOT CYCLE

60/ 120 YEAR CYCLE? (unknown)

           

OVERLAPSED

20131016

MARCH 2013

 

           
LAST PEAKS ^^
                 
                       
   

 

 

                 
INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX
           
                       

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT : LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:      
PROTON FLUX RISING

RISING AFTER NOV 27/ 10 UTC filament eruption on

ELECTRON FLUX NORMAL

INCREASE AFTER X 1 event on 20131119/and 20131121/ 02 UTC

     
BEGIN/ END: 20131119

ongoing

 

BEGIN/ END: 20131119/ 08 UTC 20131122/ 10 UTC

 

 

     

 

 

                     

TERRESTRIAL

                 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

                 

 

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment /

         

QUIET

         

UNSETTLED

     

ACTIVE

     

MINOR STORM

     

MAJOR STORM

     
       

CME IMPACT (ongoing)

             
       
       
                       
Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>                    
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 344 km/s at 27/1725Z. Total IMF reached 6.5 nT at 27/1552Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -1 nT at 27/1337Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov, 30 Nov).      
                       

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES      

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT (2)

PAST 24 h

ALERTS AS ISSUED BY NOAA

   
R3

X RAY > M 5 (FLARE ACTIVITY)

NONE

NONE    

CME event

TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION NONE NONE    
 

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

NONE    
G 1

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

   
                     
GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS - 2 nT at 09:50 UTC NEUTRAL at 9:13 UTC NORTHWARDS + 05 nT at 09:19 UTC            
EFFECTIVE PROTONS NO DATA

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

           
new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report.          
                       
             
   

TODAY`S SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE IMPACTS

           
NOAA ELECTRONS> <NOAA PROTONS      
           
INTEGRAL PARTICLE FLUX:        

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS: (2)

     

> 10 MeV PROTONS(4)

+/ - 0.1 pfu.

+/ - 0.1 pfu.

NORMAL      
  CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):      

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS:

       

>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS (1)

>2.000< 5.000 pfu

>900< 3.000 pfu

RISING        

>2.0 MeV ELECTRONS(1)

07< 25 pfu

06< 27 pfu

RISING      
NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA

NO CURRENT DATA

UNKNOWN      
(2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values      
(4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu      

 

 

               

ACTIVE SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS (SEP)

STATUS: ACTIVE SEP          

LATEST GEOEFFECTIVE SEP:

2013 suggested TIME OF SOLAR SEP EVENT: NOVEMBER- 19- 2013 at 10:42 UTC      
SEP EVENT/ short event description> An X 1.0 LDE flare in AR 11893 peaking on NOV 19 at 10:42 UTC was associated to a major SEP    

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:
 

INTEGRAL 10 MeV PROTON FLUX:

20131119/ 10: 42 UTC 20131119/ 12:00 UTC 20131121/ 00:0= UTC 4 pfu.

27.700 km/second

ONLY SHORT EVENT  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  

INTEGRAL> 0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)

 

     

non yet

 

INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)

 

      none yet  

 

       
ABBREVIATIONS/ CLASS >
       

SOLAR STORMS (SAPor SEP ) ARE INTENSIVE EMISSIONS OF HIGH ACCELERATED SOLAR PARTICLES ( PROTON/ ELECTRONS)

       

* SAP OR:" SEP" = SOLAR ACCELERATED (OR: ENERGETIC) PARTICLES (PR., EL.)

         

 

 

     
(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS
SOURCES:
 
               

CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL EVENTS

LAST UPDATE

20131128    
                 
 
CH High Speed Solar wind Stream (HSS from decaying CH 594) X RAY > M 5 GEOMAGNETIC STORM

CME IMPACT

APPROACHING CMEs :

01?

 
       
estimated arrival (s):
201311121  

SEP EVENTS>

ACTIVE SEP

> 10 MeV PROTONS +/- 0.1 pfu. > 2 MeV ELECTRONS < 1.000 pfu
EXPECTTED TO RISEs
 
ACUMMULATION OF SUCCEEDING SEPS 20131119/ 10:42 UTC 20131120/19 UTC     slown down by protons previous SEP was overlapsed by new SEP events.  
                   
LATEST SIGNIFICANT SOLAR/ TERRESTRIAL EVENTS:    
       
SOLAR/ TERRESTRIAL EVENT- NOVEMBER-28 2013 . After the solar sun spot activity had reached on Nov 17 2013 with 282 counted spots the highest level found during this entire 24. Sun spot cycle, activity dropped again to a low value until Nov 19. Meanwhile also official scientists suggest, there might by a relation between these activities and weather/ climate on Earth. The cold wave with temepratures down to minus 15° C in Souther Bavaria that suddenly creaped over the Northern Hemisphere on Nov 18 however occured coincidently with the dropping x ray background activity (the main indicator for sun spot activity. But also another temperature anomaly ( as typical after SEP events) has formed a frontline above central Europe and the N Hemisphere with warmer winds/ temp. on its northern and colder winds/ temp. on its Southern side , bringing sub zero temperatures to the South and warm weather in the Northern parts of Europe. The current state of the latest SEP remains unclear, since proton flux continued from the interplanetary field until Nov 18 and alters the measured electron values those therefore are still unreadable.
     
         
SOLAR EVENT- NOVEMBER-19 2013 . 11903 [S11E62] produced an impressive and major X 1 LED flare peaking from 10:25 until 10: 42 UTC . The event was associated to a MINOR SEP..First Protons impacted after 12.00 UTC- 1,5 hours after the event with a resulting speed of about 27.700 km/ second., but began to decrease again later on NOV 19 The CME going off from the Southwestern limb moves - as STEREO A imagery shows- pretty much towards the ecliptic plane. Thus the CME might have minor earth directed parts, those would arrive- if- then- sometime on Nov. 21.
 

 

 

 

               

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

ORANGE BACKGROUND= " LATENCY" = LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE LATENT/ EXPECTABLE , BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER UNLIKELY- WATCH!  
             

ALERT LEVEL

         
EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES TODAY

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

REMARKS AND/ OR PROBABILITY

 

 

27. NOVEMBER 2013
 

M 5.5 -6.5

1-2 DECREASING ( EFF. ELECTRONS)  
28. NOVEMBER 2013  

M 5.5 -6.5

1-2 DECREASING ( ELECTRONS)  
29 NOVEMBER 2013  

M 5.5 -6.0

1-2 LATENCY ( ELECTRONS) -PRELIMINARY  

ABOUT LATENCIES:

   

INFLUENCES:

HIGHTENED ACTIVE ELECTRONS (+) PROTON IMPACT (SEP)- DECREASING  

EFFECTING AS >

INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS(/EARTHQUAKES: HIGHER  

NOTES:* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

(In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 
                 
 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20131029- 31

EFFECTIVE CMEs/ int. Nrs. >

CME CLUSTER: 42/13 a-d/ 43- 44/ 13    

ALERT LEVEL

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS: LATEST CME IMPACT REGIONS/ =EXPECTABLE EVENT REGIONS  

CME IMPACT

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES (+) PRIMARY REGIONS IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

BACKGROUND EVENTS:

 
 

INDUCED CURRENTS (+)

MAIN: SOUTH AMERICA LONGITUDES: 30° - 150° W ACCUMULATING SEP EVENTS!  

RADIO BLACKOUTS (PROTON INFLUENCE) LOW

SOUTH AMERICA

PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< NASCA

IMPACT HEMISPHERE:

 
SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS/ TORNADOES (currently low) CENTRAL AMERICA

ATLANTIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< CARRIBEAN >< COCOS

CENTRAL > SOUTH

 
WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) W- EUROPE/ E ATLANTIC

N- AMERICA ><EURASIA ><AFRICA

 

   
RAPIC MELTDOWNS ( GLACIERS, PERMAICE) NORTH AMERICA N- AMERICA >< J.D FUCA><PAC SEVERAL RECENT SAP EVENTS AND CMES HAVE ACCUMULATED A HIGH POTENTIAL OF (HEAT-) ENERGY WITHIN THE EARTH BODY!  

 

 

SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

SEP EFFECTS:

VOLCANIC HOT SPOT ACTIVITIES/ MAGMATIC TREMORS EURASIA/ EAST LONGITUDES : 90°- 15 ° E  

TECTONICS

PROTON ACCUMULATION AROUND SOUTHERN POLE (+ ) EAST AFRICA/ INDIA

N- AMERICA ><EURASIA ><AFRICA

 

EARTHQUAKES

TEMPERATURE ANOMALITIES NEAR NORTHERN POLE (EXPECTABLE)

PACIFIC ( LOWER)

LONGITUDES : 150 ° - 90° E *REGIONS> see definition below  

EARTHQUAKES

ELECTRONS HEATING TECTONIC PLATES (RISING)

VOLCANO/ HOT SPOT ACTIVITY >

HIGHER ON HOTSPOTS (-)  
  PROTONS: GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (-) ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY >>> INCREASING ( PROTON IMPACT))  
NOTES TO SEP EVENTS::               read also: NASA SCIENCE/ 2005:NASA - A New Kind of Solar Storm  
USUALLY, SEPS begin with an outburst of highly accelerated PROTONS from the Sun. First protons arrive from 15 minutes until, several hours after the event where they move along the geomagnetic field lines towards the Earth`s Southern geomag pole, causing ( depending on the intensity) temporary heat effects on the polar surface, atmosphere and "Earth axis" likely even deep within the Earth core, what ( statistically- see previous blogs to SEP) mostly leads almost synchronously to increased activities on so called hot spot volcanoes , already minutes , resp < 1 hour after the first protons began to impact. Protons storms can last days and accumulate with following SEPs. The integral electron flux will begin to rise/ become effective when proton impact decreases,and the temporary positive component they add to the geomag field begins to attrack electrons from the solar EM field. Electron accumulation can last for weeks (but following NEW SEPS will neutralise, resp just "surpress" electron effectivity) . Electron accumulation can have many effects: typical are: INTENSIVE thunderstorms and tornadoes , but also volcanic eruptions, higher temperatures and rel. droughts in the higher latitudes up to the (mainly NORTH) polar regions what weakens the sea currents , by a lower temperature difference. Heat between equatorals and polar regions then is exchanged more over the ATMOSPHERE and that brings heavy rain to the middle latitudes. Accumulated electrons also can cause induced currents even down to the ground, such as in power grids, but also pipelines and ( supposed: SHIPS!!.) The effects of SEPs HOWEVER DIRECTLY depend on the intensity of the SEPs initial proton flux and its duration, and could be forecasted very well .Nevertheless -following SEPs can accumulate higher energies in terms of heating up the Earth core and mantle , that can`t be measured nor predicted but just estimated. In NOAA space weather predictions. mainly provided for satellite and airflight protection , integral > 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be real effective from a value of 10 pfu. upwards (= S1 solar storm) . In geophysical terms protons are effective at each level. . SEPS are the only known type of POTENTIAL DANGEROUS solar events (depending on their intensity) . They simply - as NASA expressed it : "CAN DO EVERYTHING"  
                     

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

NOVEMBER

 

DAY:

26

 

     
                       

ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

   

TODAY`s EVENTS

 
                       
GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC      
  EPICENTER/ MAP    
highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>    

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.2 - ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS. - 2013-11-26 08:11:21 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE > 51.47 N ; 174.48 W DEPTH > 10 km    

 

             
RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS: NONE ( DEFAULT) for current status, check out >
 
EARTHQUAKE REGIONS/ FROM 180° E ON WESTWARDS

TECTONICS:

FREQUENCY/ SINCE

REGION*

EPICENTER:

NUMBER

EVENT ( link to ESMC)  
PACIFIC/MAINLY WEST/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC. PAC. >< INDO- AUS FREQUENT

"B"

EPICENTER 01 M 5.3 - NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G. - 2013-11-26 14:30:29 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report  
 

 

 

                   
NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES
 
This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >
         
             
                       

 

 

                     
TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS
             
                 
               
               
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
                   
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
INDIAN OCEAN:
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
Tropical Cyclone Lehar NOV- 22- 2013 NORTHERN INDIAN OCEAN 85 MPH (+) 90.8° E 12.3° N
300 km WEST OF ANDAMAN NICOBAR ISLANDS
WNW
TS
 
                   
                   
NOAA/ Hurricane Center NASA/ GOES NOAA usno.navy.mil METEOALARM METEOSAT

reports taken from:

 

 

 

               

HEADLINES

2013

NOVEMBER

 

         
 

Seven Volcanoes in Six Countries Erupt within Hours (on Nov. 18) - But no Sign of Doomsday

The recent eruptions of seven volcanoes in six countries within the space of just a few hours sparked doomsday prophecies and claims that Armageddon was coming. But the End of Days is not nigh, experts have said. The high incidence of eruptions over a short period of time was a natural occurrence, they said. The volcanoes were Indonesia's Mount Sinabung and Mount Merapi, Italy's Mount Etna, the Colima volcano in Mexico, Guatemala's Fire Mountain and Vanuatu's Yasur volcano, while an undersea volcano off the Japanese coast formed a new island.....read more...

NASAgovVideo/ STEREO Watches Comet ISON, Nov. 20-25, 2013            
         
               

 

 

           

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

 

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

   

SUNSPOT NUMBER

47

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

272-303

FLARES >

C

02

 

SOLAR FLUX (SFU)

115. 5

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 4.5

 

M

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

01

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

80- 120 nT

weak CME impact

X

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

/ CLASS/ CONF.*

ACTIVITIES/ or: . EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

IMPACT SIZE:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

rotated out ( Nov 22)

11895

       

 

 

 

 

   
rotating out ( Nov 23)

11896

     

 

 

 

 

 

   
faded (NOV17)

11898

37° - 51 ° W

27° S

BXO/

 

           
rotated out (NOV 25)

11899

     

 

           
rotated out (NOV21)

11900

     

 

           
faded (NOV17)

11901

71° - 85 ° W

24° S

CRO

             
faded (NOV19)

11902

34° - 47 ° W

19° N

AXX

             
 

11903

29° - 43° W

11° S

HAX/ CSO

 

           
faded (NOV19)

11904

34° - 47 ° W

19° N

AXX

             
 

11905

46° - 32 ° E

19° N

CSO/ BXO

NOV 27/28

           
NEWLY EMERGED>

11906

29° - 14 ° E

18° S

AXX

NOV 27/28

           

SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

08

 

 

           

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

                 
                       

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region            

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**            
*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson            
                       

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

     
NUMBER POSITION*: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING MAG &remarks            

CH UNN.

NORTHERN

WAS LARGE BUT QUICKLY DECAYED    

 

         
                     
                     
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

           
     

 

             
ABBREVIATIONS> NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT)          
RECURR.= RECURRENT T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL ext= extended UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH            
                     

Today`s USAF report on solar activity >>

                 
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 26/0129Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Nov, 28 Nov, 29 Nov)..      
             

OBSERVED SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY

                 

X-RAY/ SUNSPOTS >

LOW

ERUPTIONS >

LOW

           
FLUCTUATIONS IN SOLAR ACTIVITY

currently peaking ( yellow background):

 

             
SHORT PERIOD FLUCTUATION APPR. 1/2 YEAR FLUCTUATION 11 YEAR SUN SPOT CYCLE

60/ 120 YEAR CYCLE? (unknown)

           

OVERLAPSED

20131016

MARCH 2013

 

           
LAST PEAKS ^^
                 
   

 

 

                 
INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX
           
                       

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT : LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:      
PROTON FLUX NORMAL

RISING AFTER X 1 /SEPevent from NOV 19- 25

ELECTRON FLUX NORMAL

INCREASE AFTER X 1 event on 20131119/and 20131121/ 02 UTC

     
BEGIN/ END: 20131119

ongoing

 

BEGIN/ END: 20131119/ 08 UTC 20131122/ 10 UTC

 

 

     

 

 

                     

TERRESTRIAL

                 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

                 

 

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment /

         

QUIET

         

UNSETTLED

     

ACTIVE

     

MINOR STORM

     

MAJOR STORM

     
       

CME IMPACT (ongoing)

             
       
       
                       
Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>                    
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 350 km/s at 26/1429Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov).      
                       

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES      

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT (2)

PAST 24 h

ALERTS AS ISSUED BY NOAA

   
R3

X RAY > M 5 (FLARE ACTIVITY)

NONE

NONE    

CME event

TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION NONE NONE    
 

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

NONE    
G 1

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

   
                     
GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS - 2 nT at 09:50 UTC NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 05 nT at 10:49 UTC            
EFFECTIVE PROTONS NO DATA

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

           
new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report.          
                       
                 

TODAY`S SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE IMPACTS

           
NOAA ELECTRONS> <NOAA PROTONS      
           
INTEGRAL PARTICLE FLUX:        

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS: (2)

     

> 10 MeV PROTONS(4)

+/ - 0.1 pfu.

+/ - 0.1 pfu.

NORMAL      
  CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):      

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS:

       

>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS (1)

>800< 3.000 pfu

>800< 2.000 pfu (proton influence)

RISING        

>2.0 MeV ELECTRONS(1)

06< 25 pfu

06< 20 pfu (proton influence)

RISING      
NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA

NO CURRENT DATA

UNKNOWN      
(2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values      
(4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu      

 

 

               

ACTIVE SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS (SEP)

STATUS: ACTIVE SEP          

LATEST GEOEFFECTIVE SEP:

2013 suggested TIME OF SOLAR SEP EVENT: NOVEMBER- 19- 2013 at 10:42 UTC      
SEP EVENT/ short event description> An X 1.0 LDE flare in AR 11893 peaking on NOV 19 at 10:42 UTC was associated to a major SEP    

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:
 

INTEGRAL 10 MeV PROTON FLUX:

20131119/ 10: 42 UTC 20131119/ 12:00 UTC 20131121/ 00:0= UTC 4 pfu.

27.700 km/second

ONLY SHORT EVENT  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  

INTEGRAL> 0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)

 

     

non yet

 

INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)

 

      none yet  

 

       
ABBREVIATIONS/ CLASS >
       

SOLAR STORMS (SAPor SEP ) ARE INTENSIVE EMISSIONS OF HIGH ACCELERATED SOLAR PARTICLES ( PROTON/ ELECTRONS)

       

* SAP OR:" SEP" = SOLAR ACCELERATED (OR: ENERGETIC) PARTICLES (PR., EL.)

         

 

 

     
(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS
SOURCES:
 
               

CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL EVENTS

LAST UPDATE

20131126    
                 
 
CH High Speed Solar wind Stream (HSS from decaying CH 594) X RAY > M 5 GEOMAGNETIC STORM

CME IMPACT

APPROACHING CMEs :

01?

 
       
estimated arrival (s):
201311121  

SEP EVENTS>

NEW SEP

> 10 MeV PROTONS +/- 0.1 pfu. > 2 MeV ELECTRONS < 1.000 pfu
INTERRUPTED BY CME ARRIVAL (PROTONS)
 
ACUMMULATION OF SUCCEEDING SEPS 20131119/ 10:42 UTC 20131120/19 UTC     slown down by protons previous SEP was overlapsed by new SEP events.  
                   
LATEST SIGNIFICANT SOLAR/ TERRESTRIAL EVENTS:            
SOLAR EVENT- NOVEMBER-23 2013 . AR 11899, the currently largest sun spot was quiet when it rotated over the solar disc. Now, when it arrived below GEMINI ( same as AR 11895 did before) it became suddenly very active with lots of flares on November 23; The line from Gemini (with Sirius below the ecliptic plane ) to the Sun further into Sagittarius from where it leads right into the massive center of our Milky Way, is (as all statistics show) among the celestial constellations ,those influence by a gravity not only the course of the Sun and its planets incl thier moons but- as statistics indicate- obviously also it flare activities. The Earth crosses this line between Gemini, the Sun and Sagittarius twice a year during both soltices, next time from December 19 until January 14- 2014 with the e Sun standing in front of Sagittarius . Then- as each year. Stronger Earth directed CMEs SHOULD BE EXCPECTED as very likelyduring this time
       
         
SOLAR EVENT- NOVEMBER-19 2013 . 11903 [S11E62] produced an impressive and major X 1 LED flare peaking from 10:25 until 10: 42 UTC . The event was associated to a MINOR SEP..First Protons impacted after 12.00 UTC- 1,5 hours after the event with a resulting speed of about 27.700 km/ second., but began to decrease again later on NOV 19 The CME going off from the Southwestern limb moves - as STEREO A imagery shows- pretty much towards the ecliptic plane. Thus the CME might have minor earth directed parts, those would arrive- if- then- sometime on Nov. 21.
 

 

 

 

               

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

ORANGE BACKGROUND= " LATENCY" = LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE LATENT/ EXPECTABLE , BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER UNLIKELY- WATCH!  
             

ALERT LEVEL

         
CME IMPACT (PROTONS) ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES TODAY

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

REMARKS AND/ OR PROBABILITY

 

 

26. NOVEMBER 2013
 

M 5.5 - 6.5

2-3 DECREASING ( ELECTRONS)  
27. NOVEMBER 2013  

M 5.5 -6.5

1-2 DECREASING ( ELECTRONS)  
28 NOVEMBER 2013  

M 5.5 -6.0

1-2 LATENCY ( ELECTRONS) -PRELIMINARY  

ABOUT LATENCIES:

   

INFLUENCES:

HIGHTENED ACTIVE ELECTRONS (+) PROTON IMPACT (SEP)- DECREASING  

EFFECTING AS >

INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS(/EARTHQUAKES: HIGHER  

NOTES:* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

(In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 
                 
 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20131029- 31

EFFECTIVE CMEs/ int. Nrs. >

CME CLUSTER: 42/13 a-d/ 43- 44/ 13    

ALERT LEVEL

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS: LATEST CME IMPACT REGIONS/ =EXPECTABLE EVENT REGIONS  

CME IMPACT

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES (+) PRIMARY REGIONS IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

BACKGROUND EVENTS:

 
 

INDUCED CURRENTS (+)

MAIN: SOUTH AMERICA LONGITUDES: 30° - 150° W ACCUMULATING SEP EVENTS!  

RADIO BLACKOUTS (PROTON INFLUENCE) LOW

SOUTH AMERICA

PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< NASCA

IMPACT HEMISPHERE:

 
SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS/ TORNADOES (currently low) CENTRAL AMERICA

ATLANTIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< CARRIBEAN >< COCOS

CENTRAL > SOUTH

 
WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) W- EUROPE/ E ATLANTIC

N- AMERICA ><EURASIA ><AFRICA

 

   
RAPIC MELTDOWNS ( GLACIERS, PERMAICE) NORTH AMERICA N- AMERICA >< J.D FUCA><PAC SEVERAL RECENT SAP EVENTS AND CMES HAVE ACCUMULATED A HIGH POTENTIAL OF (HEAT-) ENERGY WITHIN THE EARTH BODY!  

 

 

SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

SEP EFFECTS:

VOLCANIC HOT SPOT ACTIVITIES/ MAGMATIC TREMORS EURASIA/ EAST LONGITUDES : 90°- 15 ° E  

TECTONICS

PROTON ACCUMULATION AROUND SOUTHERN POLE (+ ) EAST AFRICA/ INDIA

N- AMERICA ><EURASIA ><AFRICA

 

EARTHQUAKES

TEMPERATURE ANOMALITIES NEAR NORTHERN POLE (EXPECTABLE)

PACIFIC ( LOWER)

LONGITUDES : 150 ° - 90° E *REGIONS> see definition below  

EARTHQUAKES

ELECTRONS HEATING TECTONIC PLATES (RISING)

VOLCANO/ HOT SPOT ACTIVITY >

HIGHER ON HOTSPOTS (-)  
  PROTONS: GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (-) ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY >>> INCREASING ( PROTON IMPACT))  
NOTES TO SEP EVENTS::               read also: NASA SCIENCE/ 2005:NASA - A New Kind of Solar Storm  
USUALLY, SEPS begin with an outburst of highly accelerated PROTONS from the Sun. First protons arrive from 15 minutes until, several hours after the event where they move along the geomagnetic field lines towards the Earth`s Southern geomag pole, causing ( depending on the intensity) temporary heat effects on the polar surface, atmosphere and "Earth axis" likely even deep within the Earth core, what ( statistically- see previous blogs to SEP) mostly leads almost synchronously to increased activities on so called hot spot volcanoes , already minutes , resp < 1 hour after the first protons began to impact. Protons storms can last days and accumulate with following SEPs. The integral electron flux will begin to rise/ become effective when proton impact decreases,and the temporary positive component they add to the geomag field begins to attrack electrons from the solar EM field. Electron accumulation can last for weeks (but following NEW SEPS will neutralise, resp just "surpress" electron effectivity) . Electron accumulation can have many effects: typical are: INTENSIVE thunderstorms and tornadoes , but also volcanic eruptions, higher temperatures and rel. droughts in the higher latitudes up to the (mainly NORTH) polar regions what weakens the sea currents , by a lower temperature difference. Heat between equatorals and polar regions then is exchanged more over the ATMOSPHERE and that brings heavy rain to the middle latitudes. Accumulated electrons also can cause induced currents even down to the ground, such as in power grids, but also pipelines and ( supposed: SHIPS!!.) The effects of SEPs HOWEVER DIRECTLY depend on the intensity of the SEPs initial proton flux and its duration, and could be forecasted very well .Nevertheless -following SEPs can accumulate higher energies in terms of heating up the Earth core and mantle , that can`t be measured nor predicted but just estimated. In NOAA space weather predictions. mainly provided for satellite and airflight protection , integral > 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be real effective from a value of 10 pfu. upwards (= S1 solar storm) . In geophysical terms protons are effective at each level. . SEPS are the only known type of POTENTIAL DANGEROUS solar events (depending on their intensity) . They simply - as NASA expressed it : "CAN DO EVERYTHING"  
                     

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

NOVEMBER

 

DAY:

25

 

     
                       

ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

   

TODAY`s EVENTS

 
                       
GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC      
  EPICENTER/ MAP    
highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>    

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 6.9 - FALKLAND ISLANDS REGION - 2013-11-25 06:27:08 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE > 54.08 S ; 55.08 W DEPTH > 2 km    

 

               
RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS: NONE ( DEFAULT) for current status, check out >
 
EARTHQUAKE REGIONS/ FROM 180° E ON WESTWARDS

TECTONICS:

FREQUENCY/ SINCE

REGION*

EPICENTER:

Nr. > M 5.0

EVENT ( link to ESMC)  
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA/ KURIL ISLANDS / JAPAN N-AM. >< EUR. >< PAC.><PHIL. FREQUENT

"B"

EPICENTER 01

M 5.9 - KURIL ISLANDS - 2013-11-25 05:56:50 UTC

 
        EPICENTER 01 M 5.4 - HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION - 2013-11-25 03:23:57 UTC  
        EPICENTER 01 M 5.0 - NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN - 2013-11-25 15:43:02 UTC  
REGION INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES/ INDIA EUR.>< / INDO- AUS. FREQUENT

"A"

EPICENTER 01 M 5.0 - JAVA, INDONESIA - 2013-11-25 00:40:46 UTC  
ATLANTIC/ AFTERQUAKES- FALKLAND ISLANDS REGION N & S -AM. >< AFR >< EURASIA AFTER SEP

"E"

EPICENTER 03 x > M 4 M 5.5 - FALKLAND ISLANDS REGION - 2013-11-25 06:41:52 UTC  
        EPICENTER 01 M 6.0 - SOUTH ATLANTIC OCEAN - 2013-11-25 07:21:19 UTC  
REGION PERU- BOLIVIA PAC. >< SOUTH AM. >< NASZA FREQUENT

"D"

EPICENTER 01 M 5.5 - NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU - 2013-11-25 20:06:55 UTC  
        EPICENTER 01 M 5.0 - NEAR COAST OF ECUADOR - 2013-11-25 19:42:59 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report  
 

 

 

                   
NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES
 
This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >
         
             
                       

 

 

                     
TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS
             
                 
               
               
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
                   
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
INDIAN OCEAN:
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
Tropical Cyclone Lehar NOV- 22- 2013 NORTHERN INDIAN OCEAN 75 MPH (+) 91.3° E 12.3° N
200 km WEST OF ANDAMAN NICOBAR ISLANDS
W
TS
 
                   
                   
NOAA/ Hurricane Center NASA/ GOES NOAA usno.navy.mil METEOALARM METEOSAT

reports taken from:

 

 

 

               

HEADLINES

2013

NOVEMBER

 

         
 

( earthquake.com20131125)Strong earthquake at an intermediate depth inland Peru

(earthquake. com/ 20131125) El Hierro Volcano activity report

(BBC/ 20131125)Storm threatens Thanksgiving travel

A severe storm has been blamed for up to a dozen deaths in the US and could threaten travel for millions over the approaching Thanksgiving holiday. The icy storm started in the western states and has caused at least 10 fatal road crashes. Hundreds of flights in Texas were cancelled amid freezing rain, which is expected to move east this week...."If the storm hugs the coast and develops to its full potential, it could be a flight nightmare, not only for travellers in the East, but also throughout the nation," AccuWeather.com's chief operating officer Evan Myers told NBC News....read more...

(yahoo.news- 20131124)Calm solar cycle prompts questions about impact on Earth

Washington (AFP) - The surface of the sun has been surprisingly calm of late -- with fewer sunspots than anytime in in the last century -- prompting curious scientists to wonder just what it might mean here on Earth....read more...

(obvioulsy first time since recent activity began...) A rain of volcanic stones in Sicily           Sakurajima volcano activity 24 Nov 2013 - vulcanian explosions ...
remark: The currently most active Mt Etna, Mt Sinabung. El Hierro, Sakura Jima all are hot spot shield volcanoes situtated on the edges of supervolcano calderas.... alien.homepage        
               

 

 

           

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

 

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

52

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

274-343

FLARES >

C

05

 

SOLAR FLUX (SFU)

119.5

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 4.8

 

M

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

0 (!)

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

70- 105 nT

 

X

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

/ CLASS/ CONF.*

ACTIVITIES/ or: . EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

IMPACT SIZE:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

faded (NOV10)

11894

43° - 57 ° W

07° S

AXX

 

 

 

 

 

 
rotated out ( Nov 22)

11895

       

 

 

 

after a phase of high activity, the solar disc is now almost free of sun spots

rotating out ( Nov 23)

11896

     

 

           
faded (NOV17)

11898

37° - 51 ° W

27° S

BXO/

 

           
rotating out >

11899

86° - 100 ° W

05° N

 

 

           
rotated out (NOV21)

11900

     

 

           
faded (NOV17)

11901

71° - 85 ° W

24° S

               
faded (NOV19)

11902

34° - 47 ° W

19° N

               
 

11903

14° - 29 ° W

11° S

 

NOV 23

           
NEWLY EMERGED

11904

34° - 47 ° W

19° N

               
NEWLY EMERGED

11905

50° - 46 ° E

18° N

 

NOV 28

           

SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

08

 

 

           

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

                 
                       

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region            

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**            
*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson            
                       

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

     
NUMBER POSITION*: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING MAG &remarks            

CH UNN.

NORTHERN

SMALL / GROWING    

 

         
                     
                     
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

           
     

 

             
ABBREVIATIONS> NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT)          
RECURR.= RECURRENT T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL ext= extended UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH            
                     

Today`s USAF report on solar activity >>

                 
.IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest event of the period was a C2 x-ray event observed at 25/1149Z from Region 1904 (N12W95). With the departure of Region 1904 there are now 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (26 Nov) and expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares on days two and three (27 Nov, 28 Nov).      
             

OBSERVED SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY

                 

X-RAY/ SUNSPOTS >

LOW

ERUPTIONS >

LOW

           
FLUCTUATIONS IN SOLAR ACTIVITY

currently peaking ( yellow background):

 

             
SHORT PERIOD FLUCTUATION APPR. 1/2 YEAR FLUCTUATION 11 YEAR SUN SPOT CYCLE

60/ 120 YEAR CYCLE? (unknown)

           

OVERLAPSED

20131016

MARCH 2013

 

           
LAST PEAKS ^^
                 
                       
   

 

 

                 
INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX
           
                       

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT : LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:      
PROTON FLUX NORMAL

RISING AFTER X 1 /SEPevent from NOV 19- 25

ELECTRON FLUX NORMAL

INCREASE AFTER X 1 event on 20131119/and 20131121/ 02 UTC

     
BEGIN/ END: 20131119

ongoing

 

BEGIN/ END: 20131119/ 08 UTC 20131122/ 10 UTC

 

 

     

 

 

                     

TERRESTRIAL

                 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

                 

 

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment /

     

QUIET

   
 

UNSETTLED

 

ACTIVE

 

MINOR STORM

 

MAJOR STORM

 
   

CME IMPACT (ongoing)

         
   
   
                   
Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>                
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 362 km/s at 24/2128Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (26 Nov, 27 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (28 Nov).  
                   

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES      

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT (2)

PAST 24 h

ALERTS AS ISSUED BY NOAA

 
R3

X RAY > M 5 (FLARE ACTIVITY)

NONE

NONE  

CME event

TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION NONE NONE
^The iceberg broke off soon after Protons of the latest SEP had impacted at the Southern pole, causing temp heat effects
 
 

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

NONE  
G 1

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

     
                     
GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS - 4 nT (USAF) NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 06 nT (USAF)            
EFFECTIVE PROTONS NO DATA

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

           
new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report.          
                       
                 

TODAY`S SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE IMPACTS

           
NOAA ELECTRONS> <NOAA PROTONS      
           
INTEGRAL PARTICLE FLUX:        

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS: (2)

     

> 10 MeV PROTONS(4)

+/ - 0.1 pfu.

+/ - 0.1 pfu.

NORMAL      
  CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):      

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS:

       

>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS (1)

>800< 2.000 pfu (proton influence)

>500< 10.000 pfu (minor CME impact)

DISTURBANCE        

>2.0 MeV ELECTRONS(1)

06< 20 pfu (proton influence)

06< 90 pfu (minor CME impact)

DISTURBANCE      
NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA

NO CURRENT DATA

UNKNOWN      
(2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values      
(4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu      

 

 

               

ACTIVE SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS (SEP)

STATUS: ACTIVE SEP          

LATEST GEOEFFECTIVE SEP:

2013 suggested TIME OF SOLAR SEP EVENT: NOVEMBER- 19- 2013 at 10:42 UTC      
SEP EVENT/ short event description> An X 1.0 LDE flare in AR 11893 peaking on NOV 19 at 10:42 UTC was associated to a major SEP    

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:
 

INTEGRAL 10 MeV PROTON FLUX:

20131119/ 10: 42 UTC 20131119/ 12:00 UTC 20131121/ 00:0= UTC 4 pfu.

27.700 km/second

ONLY SHORT EVENT  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  

INTEGRAL> 0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)

 

     

non yet

 

INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)

 

      none yet  

 

       
ABBREVIATIONS/ CLASS >
       

SOLAR STORMS (SAPor SEP ) ARE INTENSIVE EMISSIONS OF HIGH ACCELERATED SOLAR PARTICLES ( PROTON/ ELECTRONS)

       

* SAP OR:" SEP" = SOLAR ACCELERATED (OR: ENERGETIC) PARTICLES (PR., EL.)

         

 

 

     

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

SOURCES:
 
               

CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL EVENTS

LAST UPDATE

20131125    
                 
 
CH High Speed Solar wind Stream (HSS from decaying CH 594) X RAY > M 5 GEOMAGNETIC STORM

CME IMPACT

APPROACHING CMEs :

01?

 
    MINOR  
estimated arrival (s):
201311121  

SEP EVENTS>

NEW SEP

> 10 MeV PROTONS +/- 0.1 pfu. > 2 MeV ELECTRONS < 1.000 pfu
INTERRUPTED BY CME ARRIVAL (PROTONS)
 
ACUMMULATION OF SUCCEEDING SEPS 20131119/ 10:42 UTC 20131120/19 UTC     previous SEP was overlapsed by new SEP events.  
                   
LATEST SIGNIFICANT SOLAR/ TERRESTRIAL EVENTS:            
SOLAR EVENT- NOVEMBER-23 2013 . AR 11899, the currently largest sun spot was quiet when it rotated over the solar disc. Now, when it arrived below GEMINI ( same as AR 11895 did before) it became suddenly very active with lots of flares on November 23; The line from Gemini (with Sirius below the ecliptic plane ) to the Sun further into Sagittarius from where it leads right into the massive center of our Milky Way, is (as all statistics show) among the celestial constellations ,those influence by a gravity not only the course of the Sun and its planets incl thier moons but- as statistics indicate- obviously also it flare activities. The Earth crosses this line between Gemini, the Sun and Sagittarius twice a year during both soltices, next time from December 19 until January 14- 2014 with the e Sun standing in front of Sagittarius . Then- as each year. Stronger Earth directed CMEs SHOULD BE EXCPECTED as very likelyduring this time
       
         
SOLAR EVENT- NOVEMBER-19 2013 . 11903 [S11E62] produced an impressive and major X 1 LED flare peaking from 10:25 until 10: 42 UTC . The event was associated to a MINOR SEP..First Protons impacted after 12.00 UTC- 1,5 hours after the event with a resulting speed of about 27.700 km/ second., but began to decrease again later on NOV 19 The CME going off from the Southwestern limb moves - as STEREO A imagery shows- pretty much towards the ecliptic plane. Thus the CME might have minor earth directed parts, those would arrive- if- then- sometime on Nov. 21.
 

 

 

 

               

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

ORANGE BACKGROUND= " LATENCY" = LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE LATENT/ EXPECTABLE , BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER UNLIKELY- WATCH!  
             

ALERT LEVEL

         
CME IMPACT (PROTONS) ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES TODAY

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

REMARKS AND/ OR PROBABILITY

 

 

25. NOVEMBER 2013
 

M 5.5 - 7.0

2-3 DECREASING ( ELECTRONS)  
26. NOVEMBER 2013  

M 5.5 -6.5

1-2 DECREASING ( ELECTRONS)  
27 NOVEMBER 2013  

M 5.5 -6.0

1-2 LATENCY ( ELECTRONS) -PRELIMINARY  

ABOUT LATENCIES:

   

INFLUENCES:

HIGHTENED ACTIVE ELECTRONS (+) PROTON IMPACT (SEP)- DECREASING  

EFFECTING AS >

INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS(/EARTHQUAKES: HIGHER  

NOTES:* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

(In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 
                 
 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20131029- 31

EFFECTIVE CMEs/ int. Nrs. >

CME CLUSTER: 42/13 a-d/ 43- 44/ 13    

ALERT LEVEL

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS: LATEST CME IMPACT REGIONS/ =EXPECTABLE EVENT REGIONS  

CME IMPACT

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES (MODERATE) PRIMARY REGIONS IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

BACKGROUND EVENTS:

 
 

INDUCED CURRENTS (+)

MAIN: SOUTH AMERICA LONGITUDES: 30° - 150° W ACCUMULATING SEP EVENTS!  

RADIO BLACKOUTS (PROTON INFLUENCE) LOW

SOUTH AMERICA

PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< NASCA

IMPACT HEMISPHERE:

 
SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS/ TORNADOES (+) CENTRAL AMERICA

ATLANTIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< CARRIBEAN >< COCOS

CENTRAL > SOUTH

 
WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) W- EUROPE/ E ATLANTIC

N- AMERICA ><EURASIA ><AFRICA

 

   
RAPIC MELTDOWNS ( GLACIERS, PERMAICE) NORTH AMERICA N- AMERICA >< J.D FUCA><PAC SEVERAL RECENT SAP EVENTS AND CMES HAVE ACCUMULATED A HIGH POTENTIAL OF (HEAT-) ENERGY WITHIN THE EARTH BODY!  

 

 

SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

SEP EFFECTS:

VOLCANIC HOT SPOT ACTIVITIES/ MAGMATIC TREMORS ( EURASIA/ EAST LONGITUDES : 90°- 15 ° E  

TECTONICS

PROTON ACCUMULATION AROUND SOUTHERN POLE (+ ) EAST AFRICA/ INDIA

N- AMERICA ><EURASIA ><AFRICA

 

EARTHQUAKES

TEMPERATURE ANOMALITIES NEAR NORTHERN POLE (EXPECTABLE)

PACIFIC ( LOWER)

LONGITUDES : 150 ° - 90° E *REGIONS> see definition below  

EARTHQUAKES

ELECTRONS HEATING TECTONIC PLATES (RISING)

VOLCANO/ HOT SPOT ACTIVITY >

HIGHER ON HOTSPOTS (-)  
  PROTONS: GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (-) ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY >>> INCREASING ( PROTON IMPACT))  
NOTES TO SEP EVENTS::               read also: NASA SCIENCE/ 2005:NASA - A New Kind of Solar Storm  
USUALLY, SEPS begin with an outburst of highly accelerated PROTONS from the Sun. First protons arrive from 15 minutes until, several hours after the event where they move along the geomagnetic field lines towards the Earth`s Southern geomag pole, causing ( depending on the intensity) temporary heat effects on the polar surface, atmosphere and "Earth axis" likely even deep within the Earth core, what ( statistically- see previous blogs to SEP) mostly leads almost synchronously to increased activities on so called hot spot volcanoes , already minutes , resp < 1 hour after the first protons began to impact. Protons storms can last days and accumulate with following SEPs. The integral electron flux will begin to rise/ become effective when proton impact decreases,and the temporary positive component they add to the geomag field begins to attrack electrons from the solar EM field. Electron accumulation can last for weeks (but following NEW SEPS will neutralise, resp just "surpress" electron effectivity) . Electron accumulation can have many effects: typical are: INTENSIVE thunderstorms and tornadoes , but also volcanic eruptions, higher temperatures and rel. droughts in the higher latitudes up to the (mainly NORTH) polar regions what weakens the sea currents , by a lower temperature difference. Heat between equatorals and polar regions then is exchanged more over the ATMOSPHERE and that brings heavy rain to the middle latitudes. Accumulated electrons also can cause induced currents even down to the ground, such as in power grids, but also pipelines and ( supposed: SHIPS!!.) The effects of SEPs HOWEVER DIRECTLY depend on the intensity of the SEPs initial proton flux and its duration, and could be forecasted very well .Nevertheless -following SEPs can accumulate higher energies in terms of heating up the Earth core and mantle , that can`t be measured nor predicted but just estimated. In NOAA space weather predictions. mainly provided for satellite and airflight protection , integral > 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be real effective from a value of 10 pfu. upwards (= S1 solar storm) . In geophysical terms protons are effective at each level. . SEPS are the only known type of POTENTIAL DANGEROUS solar events (depending on their intensity) . They simply - as NASA expressed it : "CAN DO EVERYTHING"  
                     

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

NOVEMBER

 

DAY:

24

 

     
                       

ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

   

TODAY`s EVENTS

 
                       
GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC      
  EPICENTER/ MAP    
highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>    

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.6 - IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION - 2013-11-24 18:05:41 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE > 34.06 N ; 45.52 E DEPTH > 10 km    

 

               
RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS: NONE ( DEFAULT) for current status, check out >
 
EARTHQUAKE REGIONS/ FROM 180° E ON WESTWARDS

TECTONICS:

FREQUENCY/ SINCE

REGION*

EPICENTER:

NUMBER

EVENT ( link to ESMC)  
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA/ KURIL ISLANDS / JAPAN N-AM. >< EUR. >< PAC.><PHIL. FREQUENT

"B"

EPICENTER  

 

 
PACIFIC/MAINLY WEST/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC. PAC. >< INDO- AUS FREQUENT

"B"

EPICENTER 02 M 5.5 - FIJI REGION - 2013-11-24 11:10:00 UTC  
        EPICENTER 01 M 5.0 - SOLOMON ISLANDS - 2013-11-24 14:14:55 UTC  
        EPICENTER 01 M 5.6 - SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS - 2013-11-24 08:47:52 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report  
 

 

 

                   
NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES
 
This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >
         
             
                       

 

 

                     
TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS
             
                 
               
               
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
                   
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
INDIAN OCEAN:
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
Tropical Cyclone Lehar NOV- 22- 2013 NORTHERN INDIAN OCEAN 65 MPH (+) 93.3° E 10.9° N
LANDFALL ON ANDAMAN NICOBAR ISLANDS
WNW
TS
 
Tropical Cyclone Alessia NOV- 21- 2013 SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN 40 MPH (-) 129.0° E 13.8° N
120 KM SW OF DARWIN/ NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
E
TC
 
                   
NOAA/ Hurricane Center NASA/ GOES NOAA usno.navy.mil METEOALARM METEOSAT

reports taken from:

 

 

 

               

HEADLINES

2013

NOVEMBER

 

         
 

( the watchers/ 20131124) Yellowstone trembles again - new earthquake swarm underway

A new earthquake swarm is currently underway at Yellowstone National Park, USA. According to the earthquake list of University of Utah, a new series of relatively stronger earthquakes started on November 23, 2013. Almost all of them are located approximately 19 km (12 miles) NNE of West Yellowstone, MT. Most noticeable earthquakes are M 3.3 that struck on November 23 at 20:47 UTC (13:47 local time) and M 3.1 that struck on November 24 at 07:18 UTC (00:18 local time)....read more...

(the australian.com/ 20131125) More gases erupt from Indonesian volcano

POWERFUL bursts of hot ash and gravel have erupted from a rumbling volcano in western Indonesia, sending panicked villagers streaming down the sides of the mountain. Six new eruptions on Monday morning sent lava and searing gas tumbling up to 1.5 kilometres down the slopes of Mount Sinabung in North Sumatra province. Volcanic material spewed as high as 2000 metres into the air a day after authorities raised the volcano's alert status to the highest level. - ...read more...

(upi.com/ 20131123) Pakistani island born from an earthquake is already disappearing

ISLAMABAD, Nov. 23 (UPI) -- An island that emerged off the coast of Pakistan after an earthquake is shrinking, raising concerns among researchers and local residents, officials say. The island appeared a half mile off the port city of Gwadar several hours after a magnitude 7.7 earthquake hit interior Pakistan Sept. 24, Voice of America reported. The epicenter of the quake was in Baluchistan, about 250 miles from the coast. Initial reports from scientists said the island was about 60 feet above sea level, about 500 feet long and 600 feet wide. Abdul Rahim, a biologist with World Wide Fund Pakistan, described the island's surface as "mostly muddy" and covered with large rocks and stones. The island has begun to disappear and is now about 10 feet underwater "and the process is ongoing," he said. read more

^NASA | Comet ISON's Path Through the Solar System           ^^ Earthquake map/ University of Utah
         
               

 

 

           

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

 

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

   

SUNSPOT NUMBER

69

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

284-360

FLARES >

C

10

 

SOLAR FLUX (SFU)

127.1

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 5.5

 

M

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

01

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

60- 80 nT

under proton influence

X

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

/ CLASS/ CONF.*

ACTIVITIES/ or: . EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

IMPACT SIZE:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

faded (NOV10)

11894

43° - 57 ° W

07° S

AXX

 

 

 

 

 

   
rotated out ( Nov 22)

11895

       

 

 

 

 

   
rotating out ( Nov 23)

11896

     

 

           
faded (NOV17)

11898

37° - 51 ° W

27° S

BXO/

 

           
 

11899

72° - 86 ° W

05° N

CKO/ DKO

 

           
rotated out (NOV21)

11900

     

 

           
faded (NOV17)

11901

71° - 85 ° W

24° S

CRO

             
faded (NOV19)

11902

34° - 47 ° W

19° N

AXX

             
 

11903

03° - 17 ° W

11° S

HSX/ CSO

NOV 23

           
faded (NOV19)

11904

34° - 47 ° W

19° N

AXX

             
 

11905

64° - 50° E

19° N

 

 

           

SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

08

 

 

           

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

                 
                       

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region            

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**            
*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson            
                       

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

     
NUMBER POSITION*: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING MAG &remarks            

CH UNN.

NORTHERN

SMALL / GROWING    

 

         
                     
                     
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

           
     

 

             
ABBREVIATIONS> NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT)          
RECURR.= RECURRENT T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL ext= extended UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH            
                     

Today`s USAF report on solar activity >>

                 
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 24/0752Z from Region 1904 (N12W82). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (25 Nov, 26 Nov) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (27 Nov)..      
             

OBSERVED SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY

                 

X-RAY/ SUNSPOTS >

LOW

ERUPTIONS >

LOW

           
FLUCTUATIONS IN SOLAR ACTIVITY

currently peaking ( yellow background):

 

             
SHORT PERIOD FLUCTUATION APPR. 1/2 YEAR FLUCTUATION 11 YEAR SUN SPOT CYCLE

60/ 120 YEAR CYCLE? (unknown)

           

OVERLAPSED

20131016

MARCH 2013

 

           
LAST PEAKS ^^
                 
                       
   

 

 

                 
INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX
           
                       

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT : LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:      
PROTON FLUX DECREASING

SLIGHTLY RISING AFTER X 1 /SEPevent in AR 11893 on NOV 19

ELECTRON FLUX NORMAL

INCREASE AFTER X 1 event on 20131119/and 20131121/ 02 UTC

     
BEGIN/ END: 20131119

ongoing

 

BEGIN/ END: 20131119/ 08 UTC 20131122/ 10 UTC

 

 

     

 

 

                     

TERRESTRIAL

                 

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

                 

 

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment /

         

QUIET

         

UNSETTLED

     

ACTIVE

     

MINOR STORM

     

MAJOR STORM

     
       

CME IMPACT (ongoing)

             
       
       
                       
Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>                    
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 390 km/s at 23/2158Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23/2332Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 24/0054Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov, 27 Nov).      
                       

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES      

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT (2)

PAST 24 h

ALERTS AS ISSUED BY NOAA

   
R3

X RAY > M 5 (FLARE ACTIVITY)

NONE

NONE    

CME event

TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION NONE NONE    
 

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

NONE    
G 1

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

   
                     
GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS - 2 nT at 09:50 UTC NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 05 nT at 10:49 UTC            
EFFECTIVE PROTONS NO DATA

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

           
new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report.          
                       
                 

TODAY`S SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE IMPACTS

           
NOAA ELECTRONS> <NOAA PROTONS      
           
INTEGRAL PARTICLE FLUX:        

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS: (2)

     

> 10 MeV PROTONS(4)

+/ - 0.1 pfu.

+/ - 0.1 pfu.

NORMAL      
  CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):      

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS:

       

>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS (1)

>500< 10.000 pfu (minor CME impact)

>4.000 < 12.000 pfu (minor CME impact)

DISTURBANCE        

>2.0 MeV ELECTRONS(1)

06< 90 pfu (minor CME impact)

27< 150 pfu (minor CME impact)

DISTURBANCE      
NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA

NO CURRENT DATA

UNKNOWN      
(2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values      
(4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu      

 

 

               

ACTIVE SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS (SEP)

STATUS: