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alien- homepage.de- Earth quake statistics- -SUN SPOT ACTIVITY- 11- years solar cycle- last update: NOVEMBER 04 2013- -07:00 UTC copyright: reserved

background image: Aurora Borealis /COMMONS / wikipedia
open source earthquake forecast project created and provided by: alien-homepage.de-

 

According to NASA, this 24th. 11 year sun spot cycle has probably a " twin peak"- the second in 2015. This projekt therefore will be prolongued.
 
2012/ 13 - MAXIMUM OF 11- YEAR SOLAR CYCLE
SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG

ARCHIVE OCTOBER - 2013

NASA STEREO BEACON

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NOTE: I WILL INTRODUCE A NEW ARCHIVE SYSTEM IN 2012. CLICK ON THE BUTTON (right) FOR THE NEW ARCHIVE DIRECTORY! >

Note: Due to the high data amount in these monthly archives, I am currently trying to improve this by putting the single archives into collapsible panels.

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click here to open panel with graphics, volcano maps , earthquake statistic- OCTOBER- 2013
   
ALL KNOWN VOLCANOES WORLDWIDE, WEEKLY ACTIVITY UPDATES, WEBCAMS, and much more on my "REGIONAL VOLCANO " MAPS:
INTERNAL MAPS: click on the images or links below to get to my large regional maps, where you find all volcanoes around the world with descriptions , webcams and much more such as ancients sites! . Weekly regular activity updates, special earthquakes events with many functions

world volcano map 1.0

world volcano map version 2.0

Europe and Western Asia Africa and Arabic peninsula Central America and Mexico South America- Northern part South America- Southern part Central America and Mexico Northern America Kamchatka peninsula Japan region Indonesia and Philippines Australia and Southern Pacific

 

SPACECRAFTS:
SoHO
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
SDO /AIA
Solar Dynamics Observatory
STEREO
Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory
GOES
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites

ACE

 
 
 
 
 
 
Advanced Composition Explorer

^^ internal Earthquake statistics- with Sun activity curves : green = SUNSPOT NUMBER, Pink= SOLAR FLUX, blue= PLANETARY A INDEX- right image: planetary constellations in March 2013

click here to see some of the paradox observations made during that solar cycle first possibly by observatory sopacecrafts: : CORONAL HOLES THOSE REAPPEAR DURING SEVERAL SOLAR ROTATION PERIODS ON THE SAME HELIOGRAPHIC POSITION

 

VIDEOS/ REPORTS, SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL EVENTS- OCTOBER - 2013:

VIDEOS/ REPORTS OF THE WEEK

   
 

 

 

   
 

 

 

 
MAJOR EARTH DIRECTED CMEs :
Inhalt
NEXT TIME OUTLOOK: CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL EVENTS:     last update on:      
RELATED TERRESTRIAL CME TRACKING REPORT              

CME ARRIVAL

CME/ Nr.:

42/13 b,c

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

 

 

MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENTS

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN/ UTC

short impact report:

hz/ polarity:

     

20131029

11882

78° - 64 °E

09° S

X 1.7/ X 2.1 flares/minor SEP

20131025 8:29/ 14:59 UTC after 10 UTC    

ongoing

  - 5 nT WESTERN EUROPE ATLANTIC/ CANARIES  
REMARKS: CMEs/ APPROACHING: 01    

internal (relative) CME mass value:

     
         
RELATED TERRESTRIAL CME TRACKING REPORT              

ONGOING CME ARRIVAL

CME/ Nr.:

42, d- f

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

 

 

MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENTS

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN/ UTC

short impact report:

hz/ polarity:

     

approaching

11875

66° - 80 ° W

06° N

X 1 flare ass. to SEP event

20131028 04:44 UTC      

 

         
 

11882

35° - 21 °E

09° S

M4 LDE Flare 20131028 15:40 UTC           E        
REMARKS: CMEs/ APPROACHING: 01    

internal (relative) CME mass value:

     
         
SEPTEMBER- 30 - 2013: an extreme filament eruption occured early on September 30- 2013 from a near CENTRAL position on the Sun near Cronal Hole C 588 along with a strong and FULLY HALO CME. observable on SoHo imagery, that will make a full hit on the Earth sometime on Sept 31- October 01. Filament eruptions do not create a significant X ray signature, but likely can throw out more solar matter than any other eruption type. This matter from instable processes around CHs or Sunspots contains also rather noxious elements  
         
MAJOR EARTH DIRECTED CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME):

JULY- 2013

 
LATEST SOLAR CME EVENT :                  
  CMEs at:

 

ARRIVAL:

 

POLARITY: ALPHA (SEP) BETA UNKNOWN  

GOES/ GEOMAG. PROTON FLUX

GOES / X- RAY (nuclear activity/ solar flares)  

TRACKING NR.:

39/ 13

20130929/ 22:28 UTC 20130929/ 23: 29 UTC 20130930/ 0:30 UTC 20130930/ 1:30 UTC  

 

ACTIVE REGION:

   

 

Earth directed?

   

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

NEAR CH 588    

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

filament eruption

   
the event was associated to a major SEP- > (1) STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) SDO /AIA-comp (3) SoHO/ LASCO C 2

(4) SoHO/ LASCO C 32

 

 

TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << NOAA SPACE WEATHER ALERTS NOAA/ X RAY EVENTS: INTERNAL REPORT

 

 

try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION > 10 MeV PROTONS > 100 pfu  

Abbreviations:

LDE

= Long Duration Event

2013

alien-homepage.de

 

10 cm RADIO BURST  

 

   

SAP /SEP

= Solar Accelerated Particles/ Protons

       
RELATED TERRESTRIAL CME TRACKING REPORT                

ONGOING CME ARRIVAL

CME/ Nr.:

/13

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

SEASONAL MAIN IMPACT LATITUDES (JUNE):

> 15° S- > 45° N

STRENGTH:    

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENT

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN/ UTC GEOMAGNETIC HZ COMPONENT   MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  
APPROACHING...                       IMPACT POLARITY :        
REMARKS:           E internal (relatiuve CME mass value      
MULTIPLE CME EVENTS ( CLUSTERS) AND LATENCY EFFECTS:
   
CMEs/ APPROACHING:
01
         
SEPTEMBER- 30 - 2013: an extreme filament eruption occured early on September 30- 2013 from a near CENTRAL position on the Sun near Cronal Hole C 588 along with a strong and FULLY HALO CME. observable on SoHo imagery, that will make a full hit on the Earth sometime on Sept 31- October 01. Filament eruptions do not create a significant X ray signature, but likely can throw out more solar matter than any other eruption type. This matter from instable processes around CHs or Sunspots contains also rather noxious elements  
         
   
NONE
                       
                                 
                                 
 
LATEST SIGNIFICANT SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL EVENTS
 

SOLAR/ EVENT- NOVEMBER-01-02 2013 . The impact of the CME cluster between October 26 and 28 has completed. Several major earthquakes occured during the impact. Sun spot related activities are still on the extraordinary high level they reached since since October 21, but seem to be gradually decreasing. AR 11884 ist the currently most active region on the solar disc and produced a major M 4.5 LDE on November 01 at around 22:30 UTC while crossing the central solar meridian. The event was coincident with eruptions in other aneighbored active regions such as rotating out AR 11887, which had a major outbreak ( that seemed to be an SEP) later. STEREO as well as SoHO ( img right) shows a fully halo CME after 05 UTC on NOV- 02 , that looked quite typically for SEPs seemed to involve the entire solar surface and spread into all directions. Lets wait and see whether the integral proton flux which just decreased to normal levels on Nov 01 will rise again later on Nov 02. This CME event however might become geoeffective on Nov 03- 04.

 
               

SOLAR/ EVENT- OCTOBER- 27- 29 2013 active regions on the visible solar disc continued their bombardment with numerous major flares ( at least 50 C, 6 M and 3 X flares occured since Oct 24) . At least 3 major but only PARTIAL earthdirected CME were observed associated with these event . A powerful X 1 flare on Oct 01 around 01:30 UTC produced the strongest CME yet . On Oct- 30, AR 11875 produced another X 2.7 flare while it already was going to dissapear behind the western limb. The resulting CME will only have a flank impact on Earth.

As oftenly observed, also this event was associated to an synchronous event diametral on the Sun`s backside. SDO has a malefunction, thus the participating active regions could not be identified yet. STEREO EUVI 195 telescope indicates that the main source of the eruption was AR 11875 , which is just rotating out on the western limb. the eruption was followed by another M 5 flare around 04 UTC from an unidentified source.

<< Integral proton flux increaeed further after the events. Another major M flare erupted later on Oct 28 from AR 11882 . Thiscomplex region has meanwhile rotated near to the central meridian. The CME from that event is fully halo. The first of these observed CMEs arrived on Oct 26, two other flancs hit the earth on Oct 27 . All impact yet were, as expected rather weak. at least two of the CMEs in approach are expected to have a full impact

 

<< SOLAR/ TERRESTRIAL EVENT- OCTOBER- 25 - 2013 proton flux unexpectedly began slightly to increase on Oct 25 after 21 UTC following the strong activities during the last two days. NOAA USAF has predicted the increase in its yesterday`s report. .

SOLAR EVENT- OCTOBER- 25 - 2013 (report taken by solen,info: AR 11882 has produced 2 X class flares today. The first was an impulsive X1.7 event at 08:01 and was associated with a relatively small CME off the east limb. Then at 15:03 an impulsive X2.1 flare peaked. The region has a magnetic delta structure in the trailing penumbra and is likely to produce further major flares as long as that structure persists>>

 

 

SOLAR EVENT- OCTOBER- 24 - 2013 A serial of major eruptions occured on the Sun during October 23 and 24: On Oct 23 after 04: 30 GOES 13 measured a minor increase in INTEGRAL PROTON FLUX, indicating a minor SEP previous on that day . On October 23 a strong filament eruption occured near the Southern solar pole at 14:39 UTC: This backside event was followed by an even stronger filament eruption soon later diametral on the front side North of AR 11875 and AR 11877 , associated to major flaring in these regions. On October 24 at 00: 42 two synchronous flares occured in AR 11875 and 77 , from those the one in AR 11877 measured M 9.2 on the x- ray scale. SoHo showed a weak but fully halo CME after that event, that appeared rather weak also on STEREO imagery. The eruption was rather strong and impressive and pushed much solar matter upwards into the solar orbit . But most of it- as STEREO EVI imagery suggests- was likely pulled back to the surface again and visibly by the central and likely persistent CH on the eastern limb. There was at least a minor CME / solar wind stream ejected by the event, that will arrive appr on Oct- 26. Increasing proton flux in the interplanetary environment ( measured by ACE) after the event however indicates that the event was a proton flar, resp ejected more protons than electrons. The M9 flare was followed by another M 2 flare on Oct 24 at around 9 UTC . Another M 3 flare was registered on Oct 25 at around 3 UTC.

 
 

(last update on SEP event/ OCTOBER- 23 - 2013 The typical electron accumulation as typically following the last SEP event ( I prefer SAP= solar accelerated protons)) on Sep 30 began on October 12 and began to become effective on Oct 17. There is no NASA update yet, but these electrons typically accumulate over the Northern pole ( but as it seems this time ALSO above the Southern pole) where their cinetic energy is by and by transformed into HEAT by the friction with the upper atmosphere and likely also the litosphere. As NASA has confirmed during the latest SEP event between June and September 2013 such an Electron accumulation leads indeed to long lasting weather effects with intensive heatwaves and droughts and the highest risk for wild fires mainly in the higher latitudes.Addtionally to that, the accumulation is likely to trigger thunderstorms and tornadoes and- depending on its intensity- induce electric currents into power grids but also ships or pipelines rather when it is still higher level. SEPs were first discovered/ resp.defined by NASA in Jan 2005 and are the only known solar eruptions those have a FULLY IMPACT THROUGH THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD and can- depending on their intensity have DRAMATIC effects on Earth weather dn geology. Depending on the varying intensit- also NASA concludes shortly: " THEY CAN DO EVERYTHING". When electron flux finnaly drops again below 1000 pfu. , major contraction quakes occure regularly / are very likely, caused by friction bertween tectonic plates when these begin to cool down and contract again. .

Right: The Jan. 20th proton storm photographed from space by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO).>>

read full article:( NASA- 20050120- A New Kind of Solar Storm) >>

 

 

(last update on SEP event/ OCTOBER- 11 - 2013 Another temperature anomality- comparable to the one observed after the extreme SEP EVENT ON May 21- has likely built up above the Northern and also Southern polar region that has temporary effects on the Gulf stream system ( lower temperature differences) Its not expected to get as strong as the one in May 2013 . But the unusual weather front created by the anomality has just another time started to bring torrential rains over Europe, with hot air coming over the continent instead the Atlantic meeting with cooler and wet air shuffled in from the Northern polar region .I have seen satellite images in the weather reports but could`nt find those online yet. NASA`s EARTH OBSERVATORY is currently closed ( government crisis) and there is no global map of this event yet.

 

 

(last update- OCTOBER- 04 - 2013 During my weekly satellite review, I found a second, minor SEP that occured on Oct 02 near to a temporary unnumbered CH in the Southeastern quadrant... Integral proton flux is slowly going back to normal levels since October 05, while electrons become the dominant power and will likely cross treshold of 1000 pfu on October 07 with energetic events such as rising atmospheric temperatures, hightened volcanic activities and sudden tornadoes and thunderstorms expectable for the coming days and weeks as described in the left columns below as " immidiate CME effects"

SOLAR EVENT (last update- SEPTEMBER- 30 - 2013After tranquillity comes storm. Late on September 29 at 21: 49 a long stretched filament was ejected without any previous sign with high speed into space, triggered by a subsurface eruption in a large bipolar but unspotted region between CH 588 and CH UNN not far westwards from the center of the visible solar disc. This "solar wip" resulted in a strong and fully halo CME. At 21: 59 a wide flash light of the subsurface SEP- event lighted up a wide area around the previous eruption center , measuring C 2 on the x ray scale. As filament eruptions and prominences DO NOT create asny x ray bursts, the event showed clearly that there were two events and likely the SEP began earlier , but deeper below then surface and triggered the filament eruptions and not opposite as most authors believe. The event continued until 2 UTC on Sep 30 with many impressive loops forming out above the explosion area one after another on a line of several million km. The event was associated with a major SEP( meanwhile exceeding 100 pfu= S2 solar storm on the NOAA scale) , with first protons impacting around 24 UTC . SDO images suggest, the related solar SEP event was shortly before 21: 59, Thus the fastest protons had this a time a speed of appr. 20.888 km/ sec.

 
SEPTEMBER 30- 2013:NEW SEP EVENT: NOAA/ NASA REPORT:Space Weather Message Code: ALTPX1 Serial Number: 303 Issue Time: 2013 Sep 30 0525 UTC ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu Begin Time: 2013 Sep 30 0505 UTC NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies. .    
               
               
 
MAJOR EARTH DIRECTED CMEs INOCTOBER 2013:
Inhalt
MAJOR EARTH DIRECTED CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME):

OCTOBER- 2013

 

 

 

 

 

click here to open and close collapsible panel with the archived "SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG "OCTOBER 22- 31 2013
Inhalt

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

OCTOBER

 

DAY:

31

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 

      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERT ISSUED AT:

NONE

 

 

EPICENTER/ MAP AFFECTED REGION(S)

local flood wave possible

 
  click here for MEDIA report

local flood wave possible

CANCELLED AT:

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS > sismologica/ CHILE

NOAA TSUNAMI ALERT REPORT:

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 6.6 - COQUIMBO, CHILE - 2013-10-31 23:03:57 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

30.33 S ; 71.66 W

DEPTH >

10 km

EXPECTED WAVE/HEIGHT

 

FREQUENCY

 

 

 

                 

note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!

 
  click here for MEDIA report

local flood wave possible

CANCELLED AT:

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS > jma.japan

NOAA TSUNAMI ALERT REPORT:

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 6.3 - TAIWAN - 2013-10-31 12:02:08 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

23.57 N ; 121.47 E

DEPTH >

10 km

EXPECTED WAVE/HEIGHT

 

FREQUENCY

 

 

 

                 

note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!

 
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0):

 

REGION CHILE / ARGENTINE ( SA/ NASCA PLATE)

RATHER SELDOM

"D"

MAP

02

SOUTH AMERICA >< NASZA M 5.2 - OFFSHORE ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE - 2013-10-31 15:39:38 UTC  

KAMCHATKA PENINSULA/ KURIL ISLANDS / JAPAN

FREQUENT

"B"

MAP

01

N-AMERICA >< EURASIA >< PACIFIC><PHIL. M 5.3 - NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN - 2013-10-31 15:01:03 UTC  

AFRICA AND ITS TECTONIC BOUNDARIES

SELDOM

"E"

MAP

01

EURASIA >< AFRICA>< AMERICA >< ANTARCTICA M 5.0 - MAURITIUS - REUNION REGION - 2013-10-31 09:02:02 UTC  

CONTINENTAL EURASIA INCLUDING ASIA

SELDOM

"E"/"F

MAP

02

EURASIA>< AFRICA >> ARABIA M 5.2 - JILIN, CHINA - 2013-10-31 03:03:35 UTC  

REGION INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES/ INDIA

FREQUENT

"A"

MAP

01

EURASIA >< / INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.2 - SUMBA REGION, INDONESIA - 2013-10-31 00:34:02 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  
 
                       

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 

         

 

 
   

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
           
NOAA/ ATLANTIC:

NOAA/ PACIFIC

 
ATLANTIC: There are no tropical cyclones in this region              

:

  CATHEGORIES  
:wunderground.com NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION DIRECTION TYPE/ CATH  
                   
                     
PACIFIC There are no tropical cyclones in this region                
:wunderground.com NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION DIRECTION TYPE/ CATH  
Invest 97E

OCT- 30- 2013

EASTERN PACIFIC

30 MPH ()

108.0° W

13.2° N

450 KMWEST OF ACAPULCO/ MEXICO

NNW

TS

 
                   
Tropical Storm Krosa

OCT- 28- 2013

WESTERN PACIFIC

90 MPH (+)

123.0° E

18.0 ° N

LANDFALL/ EAST OF NORTHERN PHILIPPINES

WNW

TS (1)

 
                     
SOURCES>> NOAA/ Hurricane Center NASA/ GOES NOAA usno.navy.mil METEOALARM METEOSAT (EUROPE) EUMETSAT NOAA REAL TIME METEOSAT >>  
                           

HEADLINES

2013

OCTOBER- 31

 

       

2013

  VARIOUS SOURCES  

( earthquake.com/ 20131101) Very Strong earthquake to the South of Coquimbo and La Serena, Chile (also felt in Santiago)

(earthquake-report/ 20131101) Very strong dangerous (shallow) earthquake in Hualien County, Taiwan

(news-inquirer/ 20131101) 6.3-magnitude earthquake hits Taiwan, shakes buildings in capital

TAIPEI — A strong earthquake struck eastern Taiwan Thursday, shaking buildings in the capital and causing tremors across the island...Residents in Taipei took to social media to describe their alarm after the quake hit. “Yikes. Now the sirens are going. Definitely the worst earthquake I’ve felt here,” wrote Lola Dodge on Twitter, describing herself as an expat living in Taipei. Elga Reyes tweeted: “Ohmygod. That was the scariest moment ever! Earthquake in Taipei. I could hear the walls creaking. And felt like I was swaying on a ride.” ...read more...

 

(MODIS, 20131101) November 1, 2013 - Tropical Storm Thirteen (13L) in the Atlantic Ocean

 

( MODIS, 20130131) October 29, 2013 - Central Asia

                           
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

128

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

335-560

FLARES >

C

07

 

CH 592 NORTHERN QUICKLY GROWING OCT 27- 2013 OCT 31- NOV 02

RECURR:

 

SOLAR FLUX (SFU)

142.6

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 5.9

 

M

01

 

           

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

06

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

40- 120 nT

CME impact

X

 

 

           

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

     

2013

   

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

CLASS/ CONF.* ACTIVITIES/ appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

IMPACT SIZE:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

rotated out ( OCT 28)

11875

       

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 

rotating out ( OCT 31)

11877

83° - 97 ° W

12° S

DAO/ HAX

 

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (SHORT PERIOD FLUCTUATION) :

 

reemerged ( OCT 28)

11879

68° - 82 ° W

12° S

CAO/ HAX

         

X-RAY/ SUNSPOTS >

DROPPING

ERUPTIONS >

LOW

 
faded again (OCT 28)

11880

29° - 15 °W

12° N

 

          LAST X RAY MINIMUM LAST X-RAY MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

   
faded (OCT 30)

11881

07° - 21 ° W

22° S

 

         

CANCELLED

CANCELLED

 

 

 

11882

06° - 20 °W

09° S

DKO /DAO

OCT- 29

         

 

 

11883

29° - 15 ° E

02° N

AXX

NOV- 01

       

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
largest and most active AR

11884

28° - 14 ° E

12° S

EKC/ FKC

NOV- 01

       

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
faded (OCT 27)

11885

77° - 63 °E

18° S

CAO

 

        *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
 

11886

22° - 36 °W

14° N

 

 

             
NEWLY EMERGED>

11887

64° - 52 °E

20° N

HSX/ DAO

 

                 

SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

05

 

 

      INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX        

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

        INTERPLANETARY. CURRENT STATE: LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:        
              PROTON FLUX

HIGH

NEW INCREASE AFTER OCT- 28/ 04 UTC

< RISING ON BACK TO NORMAL:

ONGOING

 

internal remarks:

 

 

        ELECTRON FLUX

ELEVATED

INCREASE AFTER X flare/OCT 28/ 06 UTC

< RISING ON BACK TO NORMAL:

ONGOING

 
         
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 31/1351Z from Region 1877 (S13W95). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Nov, 02 Nov, 03 Nov).

 

 

                   
 
   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

 

 

 

         
        * note: Due to the necessary evaluation of incoming data, NOAA space weather alerts are oftenly BACKDATED!  

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment / Protons

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

QUIET

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT (2)

PAST 24 h

ALERTS AS ISSUED BY NOAA

 

UNSETTLED

 

X RAY > M 5 (FLARES)

NONE NONE

 

ACTIVE

CME

TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION NONE

TYPE II at 2146

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

NONE

 

MAJOR STORM

G 1

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

cancelled

G1/ predicted

 
               

ONGOING CME IMPACTS ( minor)

        GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS - 9 nT 1012 (USAF) NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 12 nT at 11:21 UTC  
  EFFECTIVE PROTONS

at 18:36 UTC

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS  
  new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report.

 

NOAA:        

LATEST SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS

          NOAA ELECTRONS> <NOAA PROTONS  

LATEST GEOEFFECTIVE SEP:

2013 suggested TIME OF SOLAR SEP EVENT: OCTOBER 28 around 01:59 UTC          
short event description> X2.1 flares in AR 11882 ( 20131024) and X 1.0 / AR 117875 (20131028/ 4:00)were associated to SEP events       CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (PROTONS):  

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:  

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS: (2)

 

GEOEFFECTIVE > 10 MeV PROTONS :

20131028/ 01:30 UTC ongoing appr. 2 pfu no satellite im.

low

  > 10 MeV PROTONS(4)

max +/- 5 pfu

max +/- 4 pfu.

DECREASING  
      ( end = if back to 0.1 pfu)             CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   SEP on SAT (SDO):  

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS:

 
GEOEFFECTIVE > 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS:

20131002/ 20131007

ongoing/ overlapsed

80.000 pfu

 

 

>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS (1)

>10 < 8000 pfu. CME- P- INFLUENCE

>280 < 10.500 pfu. (-) (CME IMPACT)

HIGHTENED  
GEOEFFECTIVE > 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS:

20131002/ 1930

ongoing/ overlapsed

7.000 pfu

  S 1

>2.0 MeV ELECTRONS(1)

> 4 < 60 pfu. (-) CME- P- INFLUENCE

5< 550 pfu. (-) CME IMPACT

UNDER PROTON INFLUENCE

 

ABBREVIATIONS/ CLASS >

 

NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA

NO CURRENT DATA

UNKNOWN  

SOLAR STORMS (SAPor SEP ) ARE INTENSIVE EMISSIONS OF HIGH ACCELERATED SOLAR PARTICLES ( PROTON/ ELECTRONS)

  (2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values  
* SAP OR:" SEP" = SOLAR ACCELERATED (OR: ENERGETIC) PARTICLES (PR., EL.)
    (4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu  
                     

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM      

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 482 km/s at 31/1631Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 31/1106Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 31/1840Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 30/2115Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (01 Nov, 02 Nov, 03 Nov).

 

 

 

             
                     

CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL EVENTS

LAST UPDATE

20131031              
    SEP EVENTS/ STATUS >>

start:

PROTONS: end: start: ELECTRONS end:  
          20130930

max: > 200 pfu.

20131007

1. SEP: 20131002/ 2. SEP: 20131007

max: ongoing

interference will succeeding SEP

 
          20131026 max:3 pfu. ongoing        
GEOMAGNETIC STORM X RAY > M 5 CME IMPACT (ongoing)

APPROACHING CMEs :

01

> 10 MeV PROTONS >2 > 3 pfu > 2 MeV ELECTRONS < 1000 pfu ( CME influence)  
      estimated arrival (s): 20131030/31 ^integral proton flux/ yesterday`s peak level ^integral electron flux/ yesterday`s peak level  

 

SOLAR/ EVENT- OCTOBER- 27- 29 2013 active regions on the visible solar disc continued their bombardment with numerous major flares ( at least 50 C, 6 M and 3 X flares occured since Oct 24) . At least 3 major but only PARTIAL earthdirected CME were observed associated with these event . A powerful X 1 flare on Oct 01 around 01:30 UTC produced the strongest CME yet . On Oct- 30, AR 11875 produced another X 2.7 flare while it already was going to dissapear behind the western limb. The resulting CME will only have a flank impact on Earth.

As oftenly observed, also this event was associated to an synchronous event diametral on the Sun`s backside. SDO has a malefunction, thus the participating active regions could not be identified yet. STEREO EUVI 195 telescope indicates that the main source of the eruption was AR 11875 , which is just rotating out on the western limb. the eruption was followed by another M 5 flare around 04 UTC from an unidentified source.

<< Integral proton flux increaeed further after the events. Another major M flare erupted later on Oct 28 from AR 11882 . This complex region has meanwhile rotated near to the central meridian. The CME from that event is fully halo. The first of these observed CMEs arrived on Oct 26, two other flancs hit the earth on Oct 27 . All impact yet were, as expected rather weak. at least two of the CMEs in approach are expected to have a full impact

SOLAR/ TERRESTRIAL EVENT- OCTOBER- 25 - 26 2013 proton flux again and unexpectedly began slightly to increase on Oct 25 after 21 UTC following the strong activities during the last two days. NOAA USAF has predicted the increase in its yesterday`s report. AR 11875 produced two major M flares. with associated but now stronger cMEs from those at least 1 or two are fully halo and will arrive on Earth around Oct 28. SOLAR EVENT- OCTOBER- 25 - 2013 (report taken by solen,info: AR 11882 has produced 2 X class flares today. The first was an impulsive X1.7 event at 08:01 and was associated with a relatively small CME off the east limb. Then at 15:03 an impulsive X2.1 flare peaked. The region has a magnetic delta structure in the trailing penumbra and is likely to produce further major flares as long as that structure persists..

 
 
 
 
 
       

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20131029- 31

EFFECTIVE CMEs/ int. Nrs. >

CME CLUSTER: 42/13 a-d

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

BACKGROUND EVENTS:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO AND HOT SPOT ACTIVITIES (+) MAIN: SOUTH AMERICA LONGITUDES: 30° - 150° W EFFECTIVE SEP (until Dec 2013?)

 

ALERT LEVEL

* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

hh
MULTIPLE CME IMPACTS ELECTRON ACCUMULATION (-) SOUTH AMERICA

PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< NASCA

IMPACT HEMISPHERE:

 

MULTIPLE CME IMPACTS ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES TODAY ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  

S- POLAR ATMOSPHERIC AND TECTONIC HEATING CENTRAL AMERICA

ATLANTIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< CARRIBEAN >< COCOS

CENTRAL > SOUTH

 

31. OCTOBER 2013

 
MAGMATIC TREMORS ( VOLCANIC) (+) W- EUROPE/ E ATLANTIC

N- AMERICA ><EURASIA ><AFRICA

 

 

M 5.5 - > 7.5

2-3 CME IMPACT(PROTONS)

 
SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS/ TORNADOES (-) NORTH AMERICA N- AMERICA >< J.D FUCA><PAC SEVERAL RECENT SAP EVENTS AND CMES HAVE ACCUMULATED A HIGH POTENTIAL OF (HEAT-) ENERGY WITHIN THE EARTH BODY!

 

01. NOVEMBER 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES  

SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5 - > 7.5

2-3 CME IMPACT(PROTONS)

 

INDUCED CURRENTS (POSSIBLE (-)

EURASIA/ EAST LONGITUDES : 90°- 15 ° E

 

02. NOVEMBER 2013

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS (PROTON INFLUENCE)

EAST AFRICA/ INDIA

N- AMERICA ><EURASIA ><AFRICA

 

M 5.5- 7 5

1-2 (PRELIMINARY)

 

SEP EFFECTS:

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

PACIFIC ( LOW)

LONGITUDES : 150 ° - 90° E *REGIONS> see definition below

 

LATENCIES:

 
TECTONICS

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (+)

VOLCANO/ HOT SPOT ACTIVITY >

INCREASING ON HOTSPOTS  

INFLUENCES:

HIGHTENED ACTIVE ELECTRONS PROTON IMPACT (SEP)  

EARTHQUAKES

TECTONICS COOLING DOWN (+) ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY >>> TEMPORARILY HIGH (CMEs)

 

EFFECTING AS >

INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS(/EARTHQUAKES: HIGHER  
NEXT TIME OUTLOOK :   * (20131031) forecast will be updated when all 4 CME impacts have completed      

 

 

abbreviations:

 

(+) means: this activity is INCREASING

(-) means: This activity is DECREASING

 

* SAP/SEP = Solar Accelerated /Energetic PARTICLES (Protons, Electrons)

 
NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!  
     

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

OCTOBER

 

DAY:

30

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 

      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERT ISSUED AT:

 

 

 

EPICENTER/ MAP AFFECTED REGION(S)

 

 
  click here for MEDIA report

 

CANCELLED AT:

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS >

NOAA TSUNAMI ALERT REPORT:

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 6.3 - OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE - 2013-10-30 02:51:50 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

35.32 S ; 73.02 W

DEPTH >

20 km

EXPECTED WAVE/HEIGHT

 

FREQUENCY

 

 

 

                 

note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!

 
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0):

 

REGION CHILE / AFTERQUAKES

20131030

"D"

MAP

02

SOUTH AMERICA >< NASZA M 5.8 - OFFSHORE MAULE, CHILE - 2013-10-30 02:29:12 UTC  

PACIFIC/MAINLY WEST/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC.

FREQUENT

"B"

MAP

01

PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.0 - VANUATU - 2013-10-30 08:52:49 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  
 
                       

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 

volcano-discovery/gadget

note: this report does NOT necessarely represent all currently global active volcanoes!

     

20131030

report by:

GVP  

 

Smithsonian Institution / USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report

The Smithsonian was closed due to a United States federal government shutdown on Oct- 02- 2013. On October 21- 2013, Global Volcanism Program staff could return to work : First new vulcanism update was issued on Oct- 23- 2013

This page is updated on Wednesdays. Please see the GVP Home Page for news of the latest significant activity.

 

NEW ACTIVITIES/ UPDATES:

Etna Sicily (Italy) New
Kirishimayama Kyushu (Japan) New
Kliuchevskoi Central Kamchatka (Russia) New
Shiveluch Central Kamchatka (Russia) New
Sinabung Indonesia New
Tangkubanparahu Western Java (Indonesia) New
Tungurahua Ecuador New
Zhupanovsky Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) New

ONGOING ACTIVITIES/ UPDATES:

Chirinkotan Kuril Islands (Russia) Ongoing
Chirpoi Kuril Islands (Russia) Ongoing
Dukono Halmahera (Indonesia) Ongoing
Karymsky Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) Ongoing
Kilauea Hawaiian Islands (USA) Ongoing
Popocatépetl Mexico Ongoing
Sakurajima Kyushu (Japan) Ongoing
Ubinas Peru Ongoing

 

 
         

 

 
   

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
           
NOAA/ ATLANTIC:

NOAA/ PACIFIC

 
ATLANTIC: There are no tropical cyclones in this region              

:

  CATHEGORIES  
:wunderground.com NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION DIRECTION TYPE/ CATH  
                   
                     
PACIFIC There are no tropical cyclones in this region                
:wunderground.com NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION DIRECTION TYPE/ CATH  
Hurricane Raymond

OCT- 19- 2013

EASTERN PACIFIC

45 MPH (-)

116.2° W

19.1° N

< 400 KM SSW OF GULF OF CALIFORNIA

NNE

TS

 
                   
Tropical Storm Krosa

OCT- 28- 2013

WESTERN PACIFIC

45 MPH (+)

129.6° E

16.2 ° N

400 KM EAST OF NORTHERN PHILIPPINES

WNW

TD

 
                     
SOURCES>> NOAA/ Hurricane Center NASA/ GOES NOAA usno.navy.mil METEOALARM METEOSAT (EUROPE) EUMETSAT NOAA REAL TIME METEOSAT >>  
                           

HEADLINES

2013

OCTOBER- 30

 

       

2013

  VARIOUS SOURCES  

( manila bulletin/ 20131029) 3,019 aftershocks two weeks after Bohol quake

Exactly two weeks after a magnitude 7.2 earthquake jolted Central Visayas, authories said the number of aftershocks recorded breached the 3,000 mark. The death toll from the devastation caused by the quake also continued to rise, reaching 218 based on latest report by the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC). ...read more...

/ euronews/ 20131029) Zhupanovsky volcano erupts in Russia

A new eruption started this week at the Zhupanovsky volcano, about 70 km northeast of the capital of Kamchatka, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, which last erupted in 1959. It is a complex volcano composed of several overlapping cones aligned on a roughly east-west oriented axis. The new eruption comes from the same vent that has been also the site of all known historical eruptions, located west of the highest point of the volcanic massif....read more...

(SMP/ 20131029)SES cleans up after wild winds wreak havoc

NSW is mopping up after another extreme weather event, with roofs torn of homes and one woman struck by lightning as severe thunderstorms and gale-force winds tore across a large part of the state. Just days after State Emergency Service (SES) crews were helping to battle the bushfire emergency around Sydney and the central coast, they were out again on Tuesday afternoon and into Wednesday responding to 740 calls for assistance due to storm damage....read more...

 

 

(NOAA/ D-RAP): global absportion of solar particles during arrival of 1 (of 4) CMEs/20131029/23:00

 

(NOAA/ D-RAP): global absportion of solar particles during arrival of 1 (of 4) CMEs/20131029/12:00

                           
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

132

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

308-381

FLARES >

C

04

 

CH 592 NORTHERN QUICKLY GROWING OCT 27- 2013 OCT 31- NOV 02

RECURR:

 

SOLAR FLUX (SFU)

141.9

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 6.5

 

M

 

 

           

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

12

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

25- 110 nT

strong CME impact

X

 

 

           

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

     

2013

   

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

CLASS/ CONF.*

ACTIVITIES/ appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

IMPACT SIZE:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

rotated out ( OCT 27)

11873

     

 

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 

rotated out ( OCT 28)

11875

   

EKZ

 

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (SHORT PERIOD FLUCTUATION) :

 

reemerged ( OCT 28)

11877

69° - 83 ° W

12° S

DKO/ CAO

         

X-RAY/ SUNSPOTS >

DROPPING

ERUPTIONS >

LOW

 
reemerged ( OCT 28)

11879

54° - 68 ° W

12° S

CAO/ DAO

          LAST X RAY MINIMUM LAST X-RAY MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

   
faded again (OCT 28)

11880

29° - 15 °W

12° N

 

         

CANCELLED

CANCELLED

 

 
 

11881

07° - 21 ° W

22° S

 

           

 

most active AR

11882

08° E - 06 °W

09° S

DKC

OCT- 29

       

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
 

11883

29° - 15 ° E

02° N

HRX/ CRO

NOV- 01

       

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
largest AR

11884

42° - 28 ° E

12° S

EKC

NOV- 01

        *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
faded (OCT 27)

11885

77° - 63 °E

18° S

CAO

 

             
NEWLY EMERGED>

11886

08° - 22 °W

14° N

CRO/ DAI

 

                 

SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

02

 

 

 

      INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX        

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

        INTERPLANETARY. CURRENT STATE: LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:        
              PROTON FLUX

HIGH

NEW INCREASE AFTER OCT- 28/ 04 UTC

< RISING ON BACK TO NORMAL:

ONGOING

 

internal remarks:

 

 

        ELECTRON FLUX

ELEVATED

INCREASE AFTER X flare/OCT 28/ 06 UTC

< RISING ON BACK TO NORMAL:

ONGOING

 
         
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at 29/2154Z from Region 1875 (N06W92). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 Oct, 01 Nov, 02 Nov).

 

 

                   
 
   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

 

 

 

         
        * note: Due to the necessary evaluation of incoming data, NOAA space weather alerts are oftenly BACKDATED!  

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment / Protons

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

QUIET

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT (2)

PAST 24 h

ALERTS AS ISSUED BY NOAA

 

UNSETTLED

 

X RAY > M 5 (FLARES)

NONE X 2.7

 

ACTIVE

CME

TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION TYPE II at 2146

NONE

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

04:38 UTC

 

MAJOR STORM

G 1

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

G1/ predicted

G1/ predicted

 
               

CME IMPACT/ BEGIN: 10 UTC

        GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS - 9 nT 1012 (USAF) NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 12 nT at 1225 (USAF)  
  EFFECTIVE PROTONS

at 18:36 UTC

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS  
  new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report.

 

NOAA:        

LATEST SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS

          NOAA ELECTRONS> <NOAA PROTONS  

LATEST GEOEFFECTIVE SEP:

2013 suggested TIME OF SOLAR SEP EVENT: OCTOBER 28 around 01:59 UTC          
short event description> X2.1 flares in AR 11882 ( 20131024) and X 1.0 / AR 117875 (20131028/ 4:00)were associated to SEP events       CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (PROTONS):  

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:  

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS: (2)

 

GEOEFFECTIVE > 10 MeV PROTONS :

20131028/ 01:30 UTC ongoing appr. 2 pfu no satellite im.

low

  > 10 MeV PROTONS(4)

max +/- 4 pfu.

> 0.1 < 1.0 pfu

INCREASING  
      ( end = if back to 0.1 pfu)             CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   SEP on SAT (SDO):  

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS:

 
GEOEFFECTIVE > 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS:

20131002/ 20131007

ongoing/ overlapsed

80.000 pfu

 

 

>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS (1)

>280 < 10.500 pfu. (-) (CME IMPACT)

>4.000 < 25.000 pfu. (-)

HIGHTENED  
GEOEFFECTIVE > 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS:

20131002/ 1930

ongoing/ overlapsed

7.000 pfu

  S 1

>2.0 MeV ELECTRONS(1)

5< 550 pfu. (-) CME IMPACT

100 < 800 pfu. (-)

UNDER PROTON INFLUENCE

 

ABBREVIATIONS/ CLASS >

 

NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA

NO CURRENT DATA

UNKNOWN  

SOLAR STORMS (SAPor SEP ) ARE INTENSIVE EMISSIONS OF HIGH ACCELERATED SOLAR PARTICLES ( PROTON/ ELECTRONS)

  (2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values  
* SAP OR:" SEP" = SOLAR ACCELERATED (OR: ENERGETIC) PARTICLES (PR., EL.)
    (4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu  
                     

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM      

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 413 km/s at 30/1704Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 30/0843Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 30/0713Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 30/0925Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (31 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (01 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (02 Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (31 Oct) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (01 Nov).

 

 

 

             
           

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

          (INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS  
                     

CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL EVENTS

LAST UPDATE

20131030              
    SEP EVENTS/ STATUS >>

start:

PROTONS: end:

start:

ELECTRONS end:  
          20130930

max: > 200 pfu.

20131007

1. SEP: 20131002/ 2. SEP: 20131007

max: ongoing

ongoing

 
          2010223/ 4:30 max: 0.7 pfu. 20131024/ 6:00        
GEOMAGNETIC STORM X RAY > M 5 CME IMPACT (expected)

APPROACHING CMEs :

02

> 10 MeV PROTONS > 3 pfu > 2 MeV ELECTRONS < 1000 pfu ( CME influence)  
      estimated arrival (s): 20131030/31 ^integral proton flux/ yesterday`s peak level ^integral electron flux/ yesterday`s peak level  

 

SOLAR/ EVENT- OCTOBER- 27- 29 2013 active regions on the visible solar disc continued their bombardment with numerous major flares ( at least 50 C, 6 M and 3 X flares occured since Oct 24) . At least 3 major but only PARTIAL earthdirected CME were observed associated with these event . A powerful X 1 flare on Oct 01 around 01:30 UTC produced the strongest CME yet . On Oct- 30, AR 11875 produced another X 2.7 flare while it already was going to dissapear behind the western limb. The resulting CME will only have a flank impact on Earth.

As oftenly observed, also this event was associated to an synchronous event diametral on the Sun`s backside. SDO has a malefunction, thus the participating active regions could not be identified yet. STEREO EUVI 195 telescope indicates that the main source of the eruption was AR 11875 , which is just rotating out on the western limb. the eruption was followed by another M 5 flare around 04 UTC from an unidentified source.

<< Integral proton flux increaeed further after the events. Another major M flare erupted later on Oct 28 from AR 11882 . This complex region has meanwhile rotated near to the central meridian. The CME from that event is fully halo. The first of these observed CMEs arrived on Oct 26, two other flancs hit the earth on Oct 27 . All impact yet were, as expected rather weak. at least two of the CMEs in approach are expected to have a full impact

SOLAR/ TERRESTRIAL EVENT- OCTOBER- 25 - 26 2013 proton flux again and unexpectedly began slightly to increase on Oct 25 after 21 UTC following the strong activities during the last two days. NOAA USAF has predicted the increase in its yesterday`s report. AR 11875 produced two major M flares. with associated but now stronger cMEs from those at least 1 or two are fully halo and will arrive on Earth around Oct 28. SOLAR EVENT- OCTOBER- 25 - 2013 (report taken by solen,info: AR 11882 has produced 2 X class flares today. The first was an impulsive X1.7 event at 08:01 and was associated with a relatively small CME off the east limb. Then at 15:03 an impulsive X2.1 flare peaked. The region has a magnetic delta structure in the trailing penumbra and is likely to produce further major flares as long as that structure persists..

 
 
 
 
 
       

 

 

 
               
RELATED TERRESTRIAL CME TRACKING REPORT              

CME ARRIVAL

CME/ Nr.:

42/13 c

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

 

 

MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENTS

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN/ UTC

short impact report:

hz/ polarity:

     

20131030

            ongoing    

ongoing

  - 5 nT WESTERN EUROPE ATLANTIC/ CANARIES  
  11875                     E        
REMARKS: CMEs/ APPROACHING: 01    

internal (relative) CME mass value:

     
         

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20131029- 31

EFFECTIVE CMEs/ int. Nrs. >

CME CLUSTER: 42/13 a-d

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

BACKGROUND EVENTS:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO AND HOT SPOT ACTIVITIES (+) MAIN: SOUTH AMERICA LONGITUDES: 30° - 150° W EFFECTIVE SEP (until Dec 2013?)

 

ALERT LEVEL

* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

hh
CME IMPACT ELECTRON ACCUMULATION (-) SOUTH AMERICA

PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< NASCA

IMPACT HEMISPHERE:

 

CME IMPACT ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES TODAY ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  

POLAR ATMOSPHERIC AND TECTONIC HEATING CENTRAL AMERICA

ATLANTIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< CARRIBEAN >< COCOS

CENTRAL > SOUTH

 

30. OCTOBER 2013

 
MAGMATIC TREMORS ( VOLCANIC) (+) W- EUROPE/ E ATLANTIC

N- AMERICA ><EURASIA ><AFRICA

 

 

M 5.5 - 7.0

1-3 ( CME/ ACTIVE PROTONS)

 
SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS/ TORNADOES (-) NORTH AMERICA N- AMERICA >< J.D FUCA><PAC SEVERAL RECENT SAP EVENTS AND CMES HAVE ACCUMULATED A HIGH POTENTIAL OF (HEAT-) ENERGY WITHIN THE EARTH BODY!

 

31. OCTOBER 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES  

SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5 - 7.0

1-3 (POSSIBLE)

 

INDUCED CURRENTS (POSSIBLE (-)

EURASIA/ EAST LONGITUDES : 90°- 15 ° E

 

01. NOVEMBER 2013

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS (PROTON INFLUENCE)

EAST AFRICA/ INDIA

N- AMERICA ><EURASIA ><AFRICA

 

M 5.5- 6 5

1-2 (PRELIMINARY)

 

SEP EFFECTS:

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

PACIFIC ( LOW)

LONGITUDES : 150 ° - 90° E *REGIONS> see definition below

 

LATENCIES:

 
TECTONICS

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (+)

VOLCANO/ HOT SPOT ACTIVITY >

HIGHER ON HOTSPOTS  

INFLUENCES:

HIGHTENED ACTIVE ELECTRONS PROTON IMPACT (SEP)  

EARTHQUAKES

TECTONICS COOLING DOWN (+) ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY >>> TEMPORARILY HIGHER

 

EFFECTING AS >

INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS(/EARTHQUAKES: HIGHER  
NEXT TIME OUTLOOK :   * (20131031) forecast will be updated when all 4 CME impacts have completed      

 

 

abbreviations:

 

(+) means: this activity is INCREASING

(-) means: This activity is DECREASING

 

* SAP/SEP = Solar Accelerated /Energetic PARTICLES (Protons, Electrons)

 
NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!  
     

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

OCTOBER

 

DAY:

29

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 

      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERT ISSUED AT:

 

 

 

EPICENTER/ MAP AFFECTED REGION(S)

 

 
  click here for MEDIA report

 

CANCELLED AT:

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS >

NOAA TSUNAMI ALERT REPORT:

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.9 - BALLENY ISLANDS REGION - 2013-10-29 10:37:54 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

61.77 S ; 154.65 E

DEPTH >

2 km

EXPECTED WAVE/HEIGHT

 

FREQUENCY

 

 

 

                 

note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!

 
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0):

 

REGION INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES/ INDIA

FREQUENT

"A"

MAP   EURASIA >< / INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.3 - KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA - 2013-10-29 15:45:27 UTC  

CONTINENTAL EURASIA INCLUDING ASIA

SELDOM

"E"/"F

MAP

01

EURASIA>< AFRICA >> ARABIA M 5.1 - E. RUSSIA-N.E. CHINA BORDER REG. - 2013-10-29 20:17:49 UTC  

PACIFIC/MAINLY WEST/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC.

FREQUENT

"B"

MAP

2x > M 5

PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.2 - SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS - 2013-10-29 08:21:52 UTC  
      MAP     M 5.2 - FIJI REGION - 2013-10-29 11:01:54 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  
 
                       

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 

         

 

 
   

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
           
NOAA/ ATLANTIC:

NOAA/ PACIFIC

 
ATLANTIC: There are no tropical cyclones in this region              

:

  CATHEGORIES  
:wunderground.com NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION DIRECTION TYPE/ CATH  
                   
                     
PACIFIC There are no tropical cyclones in this region                
:wunderground.com NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION DIRECTION TYPE/ CATH  
Hurricane Raymond

OCT- 19- 2013

EASTERN PACIFIC

55 MPH (+)

117.0° W

17.2° N

< 550 KM SSW OF GULF OF CALIFORNIA

N

TS

 
                   
Tropical Depression Twentynine

OCT- 28- 2013

WESTERN PACIFIC

30 MPH ()

134.5° E

15.3 ° N

600 KM EAST OF NORTHERN PHILIPPINES

WNW

TD

 
                     
SOURCES>> NOAA/ Hurricane Center NASA/ GOES NOAA usno.navy.mil METEOALARM METEOSAT (EUROPE) EUMETSAT NOAA REAL TIME METEOSAT >>  
                           

HEADLINES

2013

OCTOBER- 29

 

       

2013

  VARIOUS SOURCES  
     

 

 

 

                           
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

171

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

271-406

FLARES >

C

16

 

VARIOUS   EMERGING    

 

 

SOLAR FLUX (SFU)

152.6

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

C 1.1

 

M

 

 

           

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

04

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

60- 135 nT

CME impact

X

01

 

           

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

     

2013

   

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

/ CLASS/ CONF.* ACTIVITIES/ appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

IMPACT SIZE:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

rotated out ( OCT 27)

11872

     

 

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 

rotated out ( OCT 27)

11873

     

 

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (SHORT PERIOD FLUCTUATION) :

 

rotating out ( OCT 29)

11875

81° - 95 ° W

06° N

EKC

X2.3 21:54 UTC. partial NOV- 01 GEMINI

X-RAY/ SUNSPOTS >

DROPPING

ERUPTIONS >

LOW

 
 

11877

57° - 71 ° W

12° S

DAI/ CAO

          LAST X RAY MINIMUM LAST X-RAY MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

   
faded (OCT 28)

11879

28° - 42 ° W

12° S

CAO/ DSO

         

CANCELLED

CANCELLED

 

 
faded again (OCT 28)

11880

29° - 15 °W

12° N

BXO

           

 

 

11881

07° - 21 ° W

22° S

BXO

         

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  

most active AR

11882

21° - 07 °E

09° S

DKC

         

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
 

11883

45° - 31 ° E

02° N

CSO/ HRX

NOV- 01

        *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
largest AR

11884

54° - 40 ° E

12° S

DAO/ EKC

NOV- 01

             
faded (OCT 27)

11885

77° - 63 °E

18° S

HSX/ HHX

 

                 

SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

02

 

 

      INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX        

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

        INTERPLANETARY. CURRENT STATE: LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:        
              PROTON FLUX

HIGH

NEW INCREASE AFTER OCT- 28/ 04 UTC

< RISING ON BACK TO NORMAL:

ONGOING

 

internal remarks:

 

 

        ELECTRON FLUX

ELEVATED

INCREASE AFTER X flare/OCT 28/ 06 UTC

< RISING ON BACK TO NORMAL:

ONGOING

 
         
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 29/1831Z from Region 1875 (N06W92). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Oct, 31 Oct, 01 Nov).

 

 

                   
 
   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

 

 

 

         
        * note: Due to the necessary evaluation of incoming data, NOAA space weather alerts are oftenly BACKDATED!  

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment / Protons

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

QUIET

NONE

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT (2)

PAST 24 h

ALERTS AS ISSUED BY NOAA

 

UNSETTLED

R 3

X RAY > M 5 (FLARES)

X 2 X 1 at 03 UTC

 

ACTIVE

CME

TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION TYPE II/ IV

NONE

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

04:38 UTC

 

MAJOR STORM

G 1

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

G1/ predicted

 
               

CME IMPACT/ BEGIN: 10 UTC

        GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS - 4 nT at 17:09 NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 05 nT at 13:13 UTC  
  EFFECTIVE PROTONS

at 18:36 UTC

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS  
  new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report.

 

NOAA:        

LATEST SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS

          NOAA ELECTRONS> <NOAA PROTONS  

LATEST GEOEFFECTIVE SEP:

2013 suggested TIME OF SOLAR SEP EVENT: OCTOBER 28 around 01:59 UTC          
short event description> X2.1 flares in AR 11882 ( 20131024) and X 1.0 / AR 117875 (20131028/ 4:00)were associated to SEP events       CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (PROTONS):  

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:  

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS: (2)

 

GEOEFFECTIVE > 10 MeV PROTONS :

20131028/ 01:30 UTC ongoing appr. 2 pfu no satellite im.

low

  > 10 MeV PROTONS(4)

> 0.1 < 3 pfu.

> 0.1 < 1.0 pfu

INCREASING  
      ( end = if back to 0.1 pfu)             CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   SEP on SAT (SDO):  

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS:

 
GEOEFFECTIVE > 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS:

20131002/ 20131007

ongoing/ overlapsed

80.000 pfu

 

 

>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS (1)

>4.000 < 10.800 pfu. (-)

>4.000 < 25.000 pfu. (-)

HIGHTENED  
GEOEFFECTIVE > 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS:

20131002/ 1930

ongoing/ overlapsed

7.000 pfu

  S 1

>2.0 MeV ELECTRONS(1)

100 < 800 pfu. (-)

160 < 1.200 pfu. (-)

UNDER PROTON INFLUENCE

 

ABBREVIATIONS/ CLASS >

 

NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA

NO CURRENT DATA

UNKNOWN  

SOLAR STORMS (SAPor SEP ) ARE INTENSIVE EMISSIONS OF HIGH ACCELERATED SOLAR PARTICLES ( PROTON/ ELECTRONS)

  (2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values  
* SAP OR:" SEP" = SOLAR ACCELERATED (OR: ENERGETIC) PARTICLES (PR., EL.)
    (4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu  
                     

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM      

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 367 km/s at 29/0940Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 29/1225Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 29/1012Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 29/0140Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 732 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (30 Oct, 01 Nov) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (31 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (30 Oct, 31 Oct, 01 Nov).

 

 

 

             
           

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

          (INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS  
                     

CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL EVENTS

LAST UPDATE

20131029              
    SEP EVENTS/ STATUS >>

start:

PROTONS: end:

start:

ELECTRONS end:  
          20130930

max: > 200 pfu.

20131007

1. SEP: 20131002/ 2. SEP: 20131007

max: ongoing

ongoing

 
          2010223/ 4:30 max: 0.7 pfu. 20131024/ 6:00        
GEOMAGNETIC STORM X RAY > M 5 CME IMPACT (expected)

APPROACHING CMEs :

01- 03

> 10 MeV PROTONS > 10.0 pfu > 2 MeV ELECTRONS < 1000 pfu ( protons)  
      estimated arrival (s): 20131026 ^integral proton flux/ yesterday`s peak level ^integral electron flux/ yesterday`s peak level  

 

SOLAR/ EVENT- OCTOBER- 27- 28 2013 active regions on the visible solar disc continued their bombardment with numerous major flares ( at least 50 C, 6 M and 3 X flares occured since Oct 24) . At least 3 major but only PARTIAL earthdirected CME were observed associated with these event . A powerful X 1 flare on Oct 01 around 01:30 UTC produced the strongest CME yet . .

As oftenly observed, also this event was associated to an synchronous event diametral on the Sun`s backside. SDO has a malefunction, thus the participating active regions could not be identified yet. STEREO EUVI 195 telescope indicates that the main source of the eruption was AR 11875 , which is just rotating out on the western limb. the eruption was followed by another M 5 flare around 04 UTC from an unidentified source.

<< Integral proton flux increaeed further after the events. Another major M flare erupted later on Oct 28 from AR 11882 . This complex region has meanwhile rotated near to the central meridian. The CME from that event is fully halo. The first of these observed CMEs arrived on Oct 26, two other flancs hit the earth on Oct 27 . All impact yet were, as expected rather weak. at least two of the CMEs in approach are expected to have a full impact

SOLAR/ TERRESTRIAL EVENT- OCTOBER- 25 - 26 2013 proton flux again and unexpectedly began slightly to increase on Oct 25 after 21 UTC following the strong activities during the last two days. NOAA USAF has predicted the increase in its yesterday`s report. AR 11875 produced two major M flares. with associated but now stronger cMEs from those at least 1 or two are fully halo and will arrive on Earth around Oct 28. SOLAR EVENT- OCTOBER- 25 - 2013 (report taken by solen,info: AR 11882 has produced 2 X class flares today. The first was an impulsive X1.7 event at 08:01 and was associated with a relatively small CME off the east limb. Then at 15:03 an impulsive X2.1 flare peaked. The region has a magnetic delta structure in the trailing penumbra and is likely to produce further major flares as long as that structure persists..

 
 
 
 
 
       

 

 

 
               
RELATED TERRESTRIAL CME TRACKING REPORT              

CME ARRIVAL

CME/ Nr.:

42/13 b,c

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

 

 

MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENTS

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN/ UTC

short impact report:

hz/ polarity:

     

20131029

11882

78° - 64 °E

09° S

X 1.7/ X 2.1 flares/minor SEP

20131025 8:29/ 14:59 UTC after 10 UTC    

ongoing

  - 5 nT WESTERN EUROPE ATLANTIC/ CANARIES  
  11875                     E        
REMARKS: CMEs/ APPROACHING: 01    

internal (relative) CME mass value:

     
         

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20131002/ 02 UTC

EFFECTIVE CMEs/ int. Nrs. >

CME Nr 39/ 13

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:  

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

BACKGROUND EVENTS:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO AND HOT SPOT ACTIVITIES (+) WESTERN EUROPE LONGITUDES: 15° E- 120° W EFFECTIVE SEP (until Dec 2013?)

 

ALERT LEVEL

* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

hh
EFFECTIVE PROTONS ELECTRON ACCUMULATION (-) ATLANTIC

N- AMERICA ><EURASIA ><AFRICA

IMPACT HEMISPHERE:

 

EFFECTIVE PROTONS ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES TODAY ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  

POLAR AND TECTONIC HEATING (-) CENTRAL AMERICA

ATLANTIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< CARRIBEAN >< COCOS

CENTRAL > SOUTH

 

29. OCTOBER 2013

 
MAGMATIC TREMORS ( VOLCANIC) (+) SOUTH AMERICA

PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< NASCA

 

 

M 5.5 - 7.0

1-3 ( CME/ ACTIVE PROTONS)

 
SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS/ TORNADOES (-) US WEST COAST- N- AMERICA >< J.D FUCA><PAC SEVERAL RECENT SAP EVENTS AND CMES HAVE ACCUMULATED A HIGH POTENTIAL OF (HEAT-) ENERGY WITHIN THE EARTH BODY!

 

30. OCTOBER 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES  

SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5 - 7.0

1-3 (POSSIBLE)

 

INDUCED CURRENTS (POSSIBLE (-)

CENTRAL PACIFIC LONGITUDES : 150°- 15 ° E

 

31. OCTOBER 2013

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS (PROTON INFLUENCE)

AUSTRALIA

INDONESIA/ JAPAN ETC.

 

M 5.5- 6 5

1-2 (PRELIMINARY)

 

SEP EFFECTS:

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

EURASIA

LONGITUDES : 90° E - 00- 30° W *REGIONS> see definition below

 

LATENCIES:

 
TECTONICS

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (+)

VOLCANO/ HOT SPOT ACTIVITY >

HIGHER ON HOTSPOTS  

INFLUENCES:

HIGHTENED ACTIVE ELECTRONS PROTON IMPACT (SEP)  

EARTHQUAKES

TECTONICS COOLING DOWN (+) ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY >>> TEMPORARILY HIGHER

 

EFFECTING AS >

INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS(/EARTHQUAKES: HIGHER  
NEXT TIME OUTLOOK :                  

 

 

abbreviations:

 

(+) means: this activity is INCREASING

(-) means: This activity is DECREASING

 

* SAP/SEP = Solar Accelerated /Energetic PARTICLES (Protons, Electrons)

 
NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!  
     

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

OCTOBER

 

DAY:

28

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 

      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERT ISSUED AT:

 

 

 

EPICENTER/ MAP AFFECTED REGION(S)

 

 
  click here for MEDIA report

 

CANCELLED AT:

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS >

NOAA TSUNAMI ALERT REPORT:

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.3 - SVALBARD REGION - 2013-10-28 14:54:26 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

76.39 N ; 7.42 E

DEPTH >

2 km

EXPECTED WAVE/HEIGHT

 

FREQUENCY

 

 

 

                 

note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!

 
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0):

 

PACIFIC/MAINLY WEST/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC.

FREQUENT

"B"

MAP

02

PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.0 - VANUATU - 2013-10-28 04:48:10 UTC  
      MAP     M 5.0 - SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION - 2013-10-28 20:35:59 UTC  

KAMCHATKA PENINSULA/ KURIL ISLANDS / JAPAN

FREQUENT

"B"

MAP

01

N-AMERICA >< EURASIA >< PACIFIC><PHIL. M 5.0 - OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN - 2013-10-28 20:59:38 UTC  

WATCHING: EXTRAORDINARY AND NEW EVENTS AND REGIONS:

NUMBER= ALL EVENTS AS LISTED BY EMSC OR USGS

numbered are events > M 2.0 with single events exceeding magnitude M 4.0.

 

CANARY AND AZORES ISLANDS REGION

HOT SPOT / AFTER SEP

"E"

MAP

01

N-AMERICA >< AFRICA >< EURASIA M 2.5 - CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION - 2013-10-28 18:37:17 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  
 
                       

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 

         

 

 
   

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
           
NOAA/ ATLANTIC:

NOAA/ PACIFIC

 
ATLANTIC: There are no tropical cyclones in this region              

:

  CATHEGORIES  
:wunderground.com NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION DIRECTION TYPE/ CATH  
                   
                     
PACIFIC There are no tropical cyclones in this region                
:wunderground.com NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION DIRECTION TYPE/ CATH  
Hurricane Raymond

OCT- 19- 2013

EASTERN PACIFIC

105 MPH (+)

116.8° W

15.3° N

550 KM SSW OF GULF OF CALIFORNIA

NNW

TS (2)

 
                   
Tropical Cyclone One

OCT- 26- 2013

INDIAN OCEAN

40 MPH ()

62.5° E

13.1 ° N

600 KM EAST OF NORTHERN MADAGASKAR

W

TC

 
                     
SOURCES>> NOAA/ Hurricane Center NASA/ GOES NOAA usno.navy.mil METEOALARM METEOSAT (EUROPE) EUMETSAT NOAA REAL TIME METEOSAT >>  
                           

HEADLINES

2013

OCTOBER- 28

 

       

2013

  VARIOUS SOURCES  
 

volcano- discovery/ Monday, Oct 28, 2013

Volcanoes Today, 28 Oct 2013:

Sakurajima Sakurajima volcano (Japan), activity update: large explosions

The volcano had at least 6 vulcanian explosions yesterday. The largest (at 08:09 local time this morning) sent an ash plume to 15,000 ft (4.5 km) altitude.

 

 

 

(solar watcher) Major X-Class Solar Flare October 28, 2013

                           
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

155

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

270-320

FLARES >

C

06

 

         

 

 

SOLAR FLUX (SFU)

159.5

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

C 1.2

 

M

07

 

           

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

01

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

80- 120 nT

weak CME impact

X

01

 

           

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

     

2013

   

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

/ CLASS/ CONF.* ACTIVITIES/ appr. EARTH FACING On CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

IMPACT SIZE

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

rotated out ( OCT 27)

11872

     

 

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 

rotated out ( OCT 27)

11873

     

 

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (SHORT PERIOD FLUCTUATION) :

 

most active >

11875

66° - 80 ° W

06° N

FKC/ EKC

X 1.0/ 2N

PARTIAL HALO

OCT 30/ 31

GEMINI

X-RAY/ SUNSPOTS >

RISING

ERUPTIONS >

LOW

 
 

11877

42° - 56 ° W

12° S

DHI/ CHI

          LAST X RAY MINIMUM LAST X-RAY MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

   
REEMERGED

11879

28° - 42 ° W

12° S

CAO/ DSO

         

CANCELLED

CANCELLED

 

 
faded (OCT 23)

11880

29° - 15 °W

12° N

BXO

 

     

 

 

 

 

11881

07° - 21 ° W

22° S

BXO/ HRX

OCT- 27

       

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  

largest AR

11882

35° - 21 °E

09° S

DKC

M2.7/1N/ M 4.4

15:01/ 15:15 UTC FULLY HALO OCT- 30/ 31 PISCES

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
 

11883

61° - 47 ° E

02° N

HAX

NOV- 01

        *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
 

11884

67° - 53 ° E

12° S

HAX/ CAO

NOV- 01

             
faded (OCT 27)

11885

77° - 63 °E

18° S

HSX/ HHX

 

           

SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

03

 

 

      INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX        

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

SOUTH WESTERN QUADRANT

near 11879 SOUTHERN   INTERPLANETARY. CURRENT STATE: LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:        
              PROTON FLUX

HIGH

NEW INCREASE AFTER OCT- 28/ 04 UTC

< RISING ON BACK TO NORMAL:

ONGOING

 

internal remarks:

 

 

        ELECTRON FLUX

ELEVATED

INCREASE AFTER X flare/OCT 28/ 06 UTC

< RISING ON BACK TO NORMAL:

ONGOING

 
         
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 28/0203Z from Region 1875 (N07W79). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Oct, 30 Oct, 31 Oct).

 

 

                   
SOLAR CME EVENT :                  

20131026

CMEs at:

04:44 UTC

ARRIVAL:

appr. on 20131030/ 31

POLARITY: ALPHA BETA UNKNOWN  

SWPC/ global D_RAP- impact of protons and x ray bursts

GOES / X- RAY (nuclear activity/ solar flares)  

TRACKING NR.:

42/ 13 d

20131028/ 5:54 UTC 20131028/ 06:55 UTC 20131018/ 06:06 UTC 20131028/ 04:44 UTC  

 

ACTIVE REGION:

11875

 

 

Earth directed?

partial HALO

 

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

66° - 80 ° W

06° N

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

PROTON FLARE X 1  
part of multiple CME events ( CLUSTER) STEREO "Ahead" COR2 STEREO "Behind" COR2 (3) SoHO/ LASCO C 3

SDO/ AIA- "red"

 

 

TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << NOAA SPACE WEATHER ALERTS NOAA/ X RAY EVENTS: INTERNAL REPORT ASS TO SEP EVENT

 

try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION

 

 

Abbreviations:

LDE

= Long Duration Event

2013

alien-homepage.de

 

10 cm RADIO BURST    

SAP

= Solar Accelerated Particles/ Protons

       

TRACKING NR.:

42/ 13, e, f

20131028/ 11:59 UTC 20131028/ 15:40 UTC   20131028/ 05:32 UTC  

 

ACTIVE REGION:

11882

   

 

Earth directed?

FULLY HALO

 

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

35° - 21 °E

09° S

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

IMPULSIVE FLARE M 4/ LDE  
part of multiple CME events ( CLUSTER) SDO/ AIA- "red" SDO/ AIA- "red" (3) SoHO/ LASCO C 3

SDO/ AIA- "red"

 

 

               
 
   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

 

 

 

         
        * note: Due to the necessary evaluation of incoming data, NOAA space weather alerts are oftenly BACKDATED!  

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment / Protons

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

QUIET

NONE

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT (2)

PAST 24 h

ALERTS AS ISSUED BY NOAA

 

UNSETTLED

R 3

X RAY > M 5 (FLARES)

X 1 at 03 UTC NONE

 

ACTIVE

CME

TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION NONE

TYPE II

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

04:38 UTC

0757 UTC

 

MAJOR STORM

G 1

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

G1/ predicted

 
               

EXPECTED CME IMPACT

        GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS - 10 nT at 10:02 NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 05 nT at 13:13 UTC  
  EFFECTIVE PROTONS

at 18:36 UTC

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS  
  new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report.

 

NOAA:        

LATEST SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS

          NOAA ELECTRONS> <NOAA PROTONS  

LATEST GEOEFFECTIVE SEP:

2013 suggested TIME OF SOLAR SEP EVENT: OCTOBER 28 around 01:30 UTC          
short event description> strong and fast filament eruption near CH 588 and CH UNN. associated with large sub surface SEP explosion       CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (PROTONS):  

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:  

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS: (2)

 

GEOEFFECTIVE > 10 MeV PROTONS :

20131028/ 01:30 UTC ongoing > 10 pfu no satellite im.

S 1 event

  > 10 MeV PROTONS(4)

> 1.0 pfu

> 0.1 < 1.0 pfu

INCREASING  
      ( end = if back to 0.1 pfu)             CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS:

 
GEOEFFECTIVE > 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS:

20131002/ 20131007

ongoing

80.000 pfu

 

the event on 20130930 was overlapsed by a succeeding SEP event on 20131024 /28

 

>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS (1)

>4.000 < 25.000 pfu. (-)

>8.000 < 25.000 pfu. (+)

HIGHTENED  
GEOEFFECTIVE > 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS:

20131002/ 1930

 

7.000 pfu

  S 1

>2.0 MeV ELECTRONS(1)

160 < 1.200 pfu. (-)

>250 < 1.000 pfu. (-)

UNDER PROTON INFLUENCE

 

ABBREVIATIONS/ CLASS >
 

 

NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA

NO CURRENT DATA

UNKNOWN  

SOLAR STORMS (SAPor SEP ) ARE INTENSIVE EMISSIONS OF HIGH ACCELERATED SOLAR PARTICLES ( PROTON/ ELECTRONS)

  (2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values  
* SAP OR:" SEP" = SOLAR ACCELERATED (OR: ENERGETIC) PARTICLES (PR., EL.)
    (4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu  
                     

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM      

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 364 km/s at 28/0540Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 28/0143Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 28/0355Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 28/2020Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 418 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Oct), quiet levels on day two (30 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (31 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (29 Oct, 30 Oct, 31 Oct).

 

 

 

             
           

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

          (INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS  
                     

CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL EVENTS

LAST UPDATE

20131028              
    SEP EVENTS/ STATUS >>

start:

PROTONS: end:

start:

ELECTRONS end:  
          20130930

max: > 200 pfu.

20131007

1. SEP: 20131002/ 2. SEP: 20131007

max: ongoing

ongoing

 
          2010223/ 4:30 > 1.0 pfu.. succeeded by 2. event: 20131028/ 04 UTC        
GEOMAGNETIC STORM X RAY > M 5 CME IMPACT ( expected)

APPROACHING CMEs :

01- 03

> 10 MeV PROTONS > 1.0 pfu > 2 MeV ELECTRONS < 1000 pfu ( protons)  
      estimated arrival (s): 20131026 ^integral proton flux/ yesterday`s peak level ^integral electron flux/ yesterday`s peak level  

 

SOLAR/ EVENT- OCTOBER- 27 2013 active regions on the visible solar disc continued their bombardment with numerous major flares ( at least 50 C, 6 M and 3 X flares occured since Oct 24) . At least 3 major but only PARTIAL earthdirected CME were observed associated with these event . A powerful X 1 flare on Oct 01 around 01:30 UTC produced the strongest CME yet >

As oftenly observed, also this event was associated to an synchronous event diametral on the Sun`s backside. SDO has a malefunction, thus the participating active regions could not be identified yet. STEREO EUVI 195 telescope indicates that the main source of the eruption was AR 11875 , which is just rotating out on the western limb. the eruption was followed by another M 5 flare around 04 UTC from an unidentified source. The first of these significant CMEs arrived on Oct 26 but the impact was rather weak.

<< Integral proton flux increaeed further after the events

SOLAR/ TERRESTRIAL EVENT- OCTOBER- 25 - 26 2013 proton flux again and unexpectedly began slightly to increase on Oct 25 after 21 UTC following the strong activities during the last two days. NOAA USAF has predicted the increase in its yesterday`s report. AR 11875 produced two major M flares. with associated but now stronger cMEs from those at least 1 or two are fully halo and will arrive on Earth around Oct 28.

SOLAR EVENT- OCTOBER- 25 - 2013 (report taken by solen,info: AR 11882 has produced 2 X class flares today. The first was an impulsive X1.7 event at 08:01 and was associated with a relatively small CME off the east limb. Then at 15:03 an impulsive X2.1 flare peaked. The region has a magnetic delta structure in the trailing penumbra and is likely to produce further major flares as long as that structure persists..

 
 
 
 
 
       

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20131002/ 02 UTC

EFFECTIVE CMEs/ int. Nrs. >

CME Nr 39/ 13

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

BACKGROUND EVENTS:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO AND HOT SPOT ACTIVITIES (+) WESTERN EUROPE LONGITUDES: 15° E- 120° W EFFECTIVE SEP (until Dec 2013?)

 

ALERT LEVEL

* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

hh
CME IMPACT ELECTRON ACCUMULATION (-) ATLANTIC

N- AMERICA ><EURASIA ><AFRICA

IMPACT HEMISPHERE:

 

CME IMPACT ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES TODAY ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  

ATMOSPHERIC AND TECTONIC HEATING (-) CENTRAL AMERICA

ATLANTIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< CARRIBEAN >< COCOS

CENTRAL > SOUTH

 

28. OCTOBER 2013

 
MAGMATIC TREMORS ( VOLCANIC) (+) SOUTH AMERICA

PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< NASCA

 

 

M 5.5 - > 7.0

1-3 ( CME/ ACTIVE PROTONS)

 
SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS/ TORNADOES (-) US WEST COAST- N- AMERICA >< J.D FUCA><PAC SEVERAL RECENT SAP EVENTS AND CMES HAVE ACCUMULATED A HIGH POTENTIAL OF (HEAT-) ENERGY WITHIN THE EARTH BODY!

 

29. OCTOBER 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES  

SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5 - 7.0

1-3 (POSSIBLE)

 

INDUCED CURRENTS (POSSIBLE (-)

CENTRAL PACIFIC LONGITUDES : 150°- 15 ° E

 

30. OCTOBER 2013

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS (PROTON INFLUENCE)

AUSTRALIA

INDONESIA/ JAPAN ETC.

 

M 5.5- 6 5

1-2 (PRELIMINARY)

 

SEP EFFECTS:

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

EURASIA

LONGITUDES : 90° E - 00- 30° W *REGIONS> see definition below

 

LATENCIES:

 
TECTONICS

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (+)

VOLCANO/ HOT SPOT ACTIVITY >

HIGHER ON HOTSPOTS  

INFLUENCES:

HIGHTENED ACTIVE ELECTRONS PROTON IMPACT (SEP)  

EARTHQUAKES

TECTONICS COOLING DOWN (+) ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY >>> TEMPORARILY HIGHER

 

EFFECTING AS >

INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS(/EARTHQUAKES: HIGHER  
NEXT TIME OUTLOOK :                  

 

 

abbreviations:

 

(+) means: this activity is INCREASING

(-) means: This activity is DECREASING

 

* SAP/SEP = Solar Accelerated /Energetic PARTICLES (Protons, Electrons)

 
NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!  
     

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

OCTOBER

 

DAY:

27

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 

      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERT ISSUED AT:

 

 

 

EPICENTER/ MAP AFFECTED REGION(S)

 

 
  click here for MEDIA report

 

CANCELLED AT:

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS >

NOAA TSUNAMI ALERT REPORT:

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.6 - OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN - 2013-10-27 18:13:06 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

37.21 N ; 144.62 E

DEPTH >

20 km

EXPECTED WAVE/HEIGHT

 

FREQUENCY

 

 

 

                 

note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!

 
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0):

 

KAMCHATKA PENINSULA/ KURIL ISLANDS / JAPAN

FREQUENT

"B"

MAP

01

N-AMERICA >< EURASIA >< PACIFIC><PHIL. M 5.1 - TAIWAN - 2013-10-27 08:27:13 UTC  

AFTERQUAKES/OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU / JAPAN

FREQUENT

"B"

MAP

01

N-AMERICA >< EURASIA >< PACIFIC><PHIL. M 5.0 - OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN - 2013-10-27 23:01:45 UTC  

PACIFIC/MAINLY WEST/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC.

FREQUENT

"B"

MAP

01

PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.1 - SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS - 2013-10-27 12:07:54 UTC  

PANAMERICA

SOMETIMES

"D"

MAP

01

N & SOUTH AMERICA >< COCOS M 5.0 - PANAMA-COSTA RICA BORDER REGION - 2013-10-27 15:28:21 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  
 
                       

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 

         

 

 
   

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
           
NOAA/ ATLANTIC:

NOAA/ PACIFIC

 
ATLANTIC: There are no tropical cyclones in this region              

:

  CATHEGORIES  
:wunderground.com NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION DIRECTION TYPE/ CATH  
                   
                     
PACIFIC There are no tropical cyclones in this region                
:wunderground.com NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION DIRECTION TYPE/ CATH  
Hurricane Raymond

OCT- 19- 2013

EASTERN PACIFIC

85 MPH (+)

116.0° W

41.2° N

600 KM SSW OF GULF OF CALIFORNIA

WNW

TS (1)

 
                   
Tropical Cyclone One

OCT- 26- 2013

INDIAN OCEAN

40 MPH ()

64.0° E

13.1 ° N

700 KM EAST OF MADAGASKAR

WSW

TC

 
                     
SOURCES>> NOAA/ Hurricane Center NASA/ GOES NOAA usno.navy.mil METEOALARM METEOSAT (EUROPE) EUMETSAT NOAA REAL TIME METEOSAT >>  
                           

HEADLINES

2013

OCTOBER- 27

 

       

2013

  VARIOUS SOURCES  
 

(Metoffice.uk/ 20131027)Major Atlantic storm to impact UK

27 October 2013 - A major Atlantic storm is set to move across the UK over the next 24 hours, bringing some heavy rain and very strong winds to parts of England and Wales....read more...

(volcano-discovery/ 20131027)Volcanic activity worldwide 27 Oct 2013: Sinabung, Etna:

Etna (Sicily, Italy): Tremor has remained elevated and the New SE crater continued to produce weak strombolian activity and aliment the lava flow during much of the night. At the moment (Sunday morning), it is not clear if this activity is continuing.

Sinabung volcano (Sumatra) - ash explosion yesterday evening:

A new explosion occurred yesterday evening (17:40 local time), producing an ash plume rising 2-3 km above the crater and causing ash fall in nearby villages.

 

 

 

 

^GLOBAL D-RAP: impact and heating effects of Protons and x rays in the atmosphere/ 20101018

                           
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

206

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

270-313

FLARES >

C

16

 

         

 

 

SOLAR FLUX (SFU)

166.9

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

C 1.1

 

M

01

 

           

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

02

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

85- 130 nT

weak CME impact

X

 

 

           

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

     

2013

   

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CLASS/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

rotating out ( OCT 27)

11872

78° - 92° W

18° S

BXO

 

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 

rotating out ( OCT 27)

11873

80° - 94 ° W

10° N

BXO

 

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (SHORT PERIOD FLUCTUATION) :

 

most active >

11875

52° - 66 ° W

06° N

EKC/

         

X-RAY/ SUNSPOTS >

RISING

ERUPTIONS >

LOW

 
largest AR

11877

29° - 43 ° W

12° S

CHI

          LAST X RAY MINIMUM LAST X-RAY MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

   
REEMERGED

11879

14° - 28 ° W

12° S

CAO

 

 

 

 

 

CANCELLED

CANCELLED

 

 
faded (OCT 23)

11880

29° - 15 °W

12° N

BXO

 

     

 

 

 

 

11881

08° E - 06 ° W

22° S

BXO/CRO

OCT- 27

       

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
 

11882

49° - 35 °E

09° S

DKI/ DKC

 

     

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
NEWLY EMERGED>

11883

75° - 61 ° E

02° N

HAX

NOV- 01

      *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
NEWLY EMERGED>

11884

80° - 66 ° E

12° S

HAX/ CAO

NOV- 01

             
NEWLY EMERGED>

11885

77° - 63 °E

18° S

HSX/ HHX

 

           

SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

01

 

 

      INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX        

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

 

        INTERPLANETARY. CURRENT STATE: LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:        
              PROTON FLUX

RISING

NEW INCREASE AFTER OCT- 26/ 04 UTC

< RISING ON BACK TO NORMAL:

ONGOING

 

internal remarks:

 

 

        ELECTRON FLUX

DECREASING

INCREASE AFTER OCT 25/ 08 UTC

< RISING ON BACK TO NORMAL:

ONGOING

 
         
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 27/1248Z from Region 1875 (N07W64). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct, 30 Oct).

 

 

                   
 
   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

 

 

 

         
        * note: Due to the necessary evaluation of incoming data, NOAA space weather alerts are oftenly BACKDATED!  

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment / Protons

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

QUIET

NONE

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT (2)

PAST 24 h

ALERTS AS ISSUED BY NOAA

 

UNSETTLED

 

X RAY > M 5 (FLARES)

NONE NONE

 

ACTIVE

CME

TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION NONE

TYPE II

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

0757 UTC

 

MAJOR STORM

G 1

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

G1/ predicted

G1/ predicted

 
               

MINOR CME IMPACT

        GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS - 10 nT at 10:02 NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 02 nT after 2200  
  EFFECTIVE PROTONS

at 18:36 UTC

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS  
  new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report.

 

NOAA:        

LATEST SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS

          NOAA ELECTRONS> <NOAA PROTONS  

LATEST GEOEFFECTIVE SEP:

2013 suggested TIME OF SOLAR SEP EVENT: SEPTEMBER 29 at 21:45- 21: 59 UTC          
short event description> strong and fast filament eruption near CH 588 and CH UNN. associated with large sub surface SEP explosion       CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (PROTONS):  

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:  

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS: (2)

 

GEOEFFECTIVE > 10 MeV PROTONS :

20130930/ 00 UTC 20131007/0000 > 100 pfu 21.000 km/ second

major S 2 event

  > 10 MeV PROTONS(4)

> 0.1 < 1.0 pfu

> 0.1 < 1.0 pfu

HIGHTENED  
      ( end = if back to 0.1 pfu)             CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS:

 
GEOEFFECTIVE > 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS:

20131002/ 20131007

ongoing

80.000 pfu

     

>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS (1)

>8.000 < 25.000 pfu. (+)

>9.000 < 30.000 pfu. (+)

HIGHTENED  
GEOEFFECTIVE > 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS:

20131002/ 1930

 

7.000 pfu

  S 1

>2.0 MeV ELECTRONS(1)

>250 < 1.000 pfu. (-)

>200 < 1.100 pfu. (-)

UNDER PROTON INFLUENCE

 

ABBREVIATIONS/ CLASS >
 

 

NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA

NO CURRENT DATA

UNKNOWN  

SOLAR STORMS (SAPor SEP ) ARE INTENSIVE EMISSIONS OF HIGH ACCELERATED SOLAR PARTICLES ( PROTON/ ELECTRONS)

  (2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values  
* SAP OR:" SEP" = SOLAR ACCELERATED (OR: ENERGETIC) PARTICLES (PR., EL.)
    (4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu  
                     

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM      

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 313 km/s at 26/2148Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/0318Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 27/0634Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 765 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (28 Oct), unsettled to active levels on day two (29 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (30 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct, 30 Oct)

 

 

 

             
           

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

          (INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS  
                     

CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL EVENTS

LAST UPDATE

20131027              
    SEP EVENTS/ STATUS >>

start:

PROTONS: end:

start:

ELECTRONS end:  
          20130930

max: > 200 pfu.

20131007

1. SEP: 20131002/ 2. SEP: 20131007

max: ongoing

ongoing

 
          2010223/ 4:30 max: 0.7 pfu. 20131024/ 6:00        
GEOMAGNETIC STORM X RAY > M 5 CME IMPACT ( 18 UTC)

APPROACHING CMEs :

01

> 10 MeV PROTONS > 0.5 pfu > 2 MeV ELECTRONS < 1000 pfu ( protons)  
      estimated arrival (s): 20131026 ^integral proton flux/ yesterday`s peak level ^integral electron flux/ yesterday`s peak level  

SOLAR/ TERRESTRIAL EVENT- OCTOBER- 25 - 26 2013 proton flux again and unexpectedly began slightly to increase on Oct 25 after 21 UTC following the strong activities during the last two days. NOAA USAF has predicted the increase in its yesterday`s report. AR 11875 produced two major M flares. with associated but now stronger cMEs from those at least 1 or two are fully halo and will arrive on Earth around Oct 28.>>

SOLAR EVENT- OCTOBER- 25 - 2013 (report taken by solen,info: AR 11882 has produced 2 X class flares today. The first was an impulsive X1.7 event at 08:01 and was associated with a relatively small CME off the east limb. Then at 15:03 an impulsive X2.1 flare peaked. The region has a magnetic delta structure in the trailing penumbra and is likely to produce further major flares as long as that structure persists..

SOLAR EVENT- OCTOBER- 24 - 2013 A serial of major eruptions occured on the Sun during October 23 and 24: On Oct 23 after 04: 30 GOES 13 measured a minor increase in INTEGRAL PROTON FLUX, indicating a minor SEP previous on that day . On October 23 a strong filament eruption occured near the Southern solar pole at 14:39 UTC: This backside event was followed by an even stronger filament eruption soon later diametral on the front side North of AR 11875 and AR 11877 , associated to major flaring in these regions. On October 24 at 00: 42 two synchronous flares occured in AR 11875 and 77 , from those the one in AR 11877 measured M 9.2 on the x- ray scale. SoHo showed a weak but fully halo CME after that event, that appeared rather weak also on STEREO imagery. The eruption was rather strong and impressive and pushed much solar matter upwards into the solar orbit . But most of it- as STEREO EVI imagery suggests- was likely pulled back to the surface again and visibly sucked up by the central and likely persistent CH on the eastern limb. There was at least a minor CME / solar wind stream ejected by the event, that will arrive appr on Oct- 26. Increasing proton flux in the interplanetary environment ( measured by ACE) after the event however indicates that the event was a proton flar, resp ejected more protons than electrons. The M9 flare was followed by another M 2 flare on Oct 24 at around 9 UTC . Another M 3 flare was registered on Oct 25 at around 3 UTC.

 
 
 
 
 
       

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20131002/ 02 UTC

EFFECTIVE CMEs/ int. Nrs. >

CME Nr 39/ 13

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

BACKGROUND EVENTS:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO AND HOT SPOT ACTIVITIES (+) WESTERN EUROPE LONGITUDES: 15° E- 120° W EFFECTIVE SEP (until Dec 2013?)

 

ALERT LEVEL

* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

hh
CME IMPACT ELECTRON ACCUMULATION (-) ATLANTIC

N- AMERICA ><EURASIA ><AFRICA

IMPACT HEMISPHERE:

 

CME IMPACT ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES TODAY ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  

ATMOSPHERIC AND TECTONIC HEATING (-) CENTRAL AMERICA

ATLANTIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< CARRIBEAN >< COCOS

CENTRAL > SOUTH

 

27. OCTOBER 2013

 
MAGMATIC TREMORS ( VOLCANIC) (+) SOUTH AMERICA

PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< NASCA

 

 

M 5.5 - 6.0

1-3 ( CME IMPACT)

 
SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS/ TORNADOES (-) US WEST COAST- N- AMERICA >< J.D FUCA><PAC SEVERAL RECENT SAP EVENTS AND CMES HAVE ACCUMULATED A HIGH POTENTIAL OF (HEAT-) ENERGY WITHIN THE EARTH BODY!

 

28. OCTOBER 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES  

SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

M 5.5 - >7.0

1-3 (PROTONS)

 

INDUCED CURRENTS (POSSIBLE (-)

CENTRAL PACIFIC LONGITUDES : 150°- 15 ° E

 

29. OCTOBER 2013

 

RADIO BLACKOUTS (PROTON INFLUENCE)

AUSTRALIA

INDONESIA/ JAPAN ETC.

 

M 5.5- 6 5

1-2 (PRELIMINARY)

 

SEP EFFECTS:

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG)

EURASIA

LONGITUDES : 90° E - 00- 30° W *REGIONS> see definition below

 

LATENCIES:

 
TECTONICS

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (+)

VOLCANO/ HOT SPOT ACTIVITY >

HIGHER  

INFLUENCES:

HIGHTENED ACTIVE ELECTRONS PROTON IMPACT (SEP)  

EARTHQUAKES

TECTONICS COOLING DOWN (+) ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY >>> TEMPORARILY HIGHER

 

EFFECTING AS >

INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS(/EARTHQUAKES: HIGHER  
NEXT TIME OUTLOOK :                  

 

 

abbreviations:

 

(+) means: this activity is INCREASING

(-) means: This activity is DECREASING

 

* SAP/SEP = Solar Accelerated /Energetic PARTICLES (Protons, Electrons)

 
NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!  
     

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

OCTOBER

 

DAY:

26

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 

      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERT ISSUED AT:

 

 

 

EPICENTER/ MAP AFFECTED REGION(S)

 

 
  click here for MEDIA report

 

CANCELLED AT:

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS >

NOAA TSUNAMI ALERT REPORT:

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 4.8 - SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS REGION - 2013-10-26 07:00:00 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

10.72 S ; 164.80 E

DEPTH >

30 km

EXPECTED WAVE/HEIGHT

 

FREQUENCY

 

 

 

                 

note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!

 
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  
 
                       

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 

         
REGION:
NAME/USGS datalink:
GEOGRAPHIC POSITION: LAT. / LONG.
VOLCANO NUMBER
VOLCANO TYPE
WEBCAM DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL MAP: LOCAL SURVEY

 

Italy/ Europe ETNA 37444'3"N/ 15°0'16"E 0101-06= Stratovolcanoes Hi* ETNA

OCT- 26- 2013

 

Europe

INGV-CT

 

Wikipedia:

                   
           

20131029

report by:

GVP

 

Sezione di Catania - Osservatorio Etneo reported that on 26 October Etna's New Southeast Crater (NSEC) produced a new episode of lava fountaining, six months after the previous paroxysm. A gas plume laden with pyroclastic material rose several kilometers above the summit and drifted SW, affecting population centers as far as the Caltanissetta area. According to a news article a representative from Catania airport noted that the eruption caused the closure of nearby airspace before dawn through the early morning.

Lava emitted from the saddle between the two cones of the Southeast Crater advanced S, destroying two wooden shacks at Torre del Filosofo. Another smaller lava flow descended the SE flank of the NSEC cone, partially filling the deep collapse scar formed during the 27 April 2013 paroxysm. At 1019 vigorous ashemissions from the Northeast Crater formed a dark brown plume that rose 1 km; ash emissions from that crater continued through late evening. Lava fountaining from NSEC continued through the late morning and was then followed by a long series of powerful explosions audible to many tens of kilometers away.Strombolian explosions occurred in the late evening. Lava flows continued to advance the next day.

 

                               
                                 

 

 
   

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
           
NOAA/ ATLANTIC:

NOAA/ PACIFIC

 
ATLANTIC: There are no tropical cyclones in this region              

:

  CATHEGORIES  
:wunderground.com NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION DIRECTION TYPE/ CATH  
                   
                     
PACIFIC There are no tropical cyclones in this region                
:wunderground.com NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION DIRECTION TYPE/ CATH  
Hurricane Raymond

OCT- 19- 2013

EASTERN PACIFIC

50 MPH (-)

110.8° W

12.9° N

650 KM WEST OF ACAPULCO

WSW

TS

 
Tropical Storm Lekima

OCT- 20- 2013

WESTERN PACIFIC

85 MPH (-)

148.9° E

34.3° N

450 KM EAST OF YOKAHAMA/ JAPAN

N

TS

 
Tropical Storm Francisco

OCT- 15- 2013

WESTERN PACIFIC

50 MPH (-)

137.4° E

30.3 ° N

300 KM EAST OF SOUTHERN JAPAN

ENE

TS

 
                     
SOURCES>> NOAA/ Hurricane Center NASA/ GOES NOAA usno.navy.mil METEOALARM METEOSAT (EUROPE) EUMETSAT NOAA REAL TIME METEOSAT >>  
                           

HEADLINES

2013

OCTOBER- 26

 

       

2013

  VARIOUS SOURCES  

volcano-discovery/ Saturday, Oct 26, 2013

Volcanic activity worldwide 26 Oct 2013:

Etna (Sicily, Italy): Following a slow gradual build-up of increasing strombolian activity at Etna's New SE crater since yesterday, a new paroxysm is now in the progress, with high lava fountains, lava flows, and a tall ash plume. >

Volcanic activity worldwide 25 Oct 2013:

Stromboli (Eolian Islands, Italy): Activity has picked up during the past week. During a visit yesterday afternoon and evening, we observed frequent and often strong strombolian eruptions from the NW vent (Ginostra side), which had enlarged a lot since early this year.Explosions occurred at 5-10 minutes intervals and produced spatter-rich jets to heights to 200-300 m. Glow from the vent and weak spattering indicates that the magma column inside the western vent has risen high.
... [read more]

Sinabung volcano (Sumatra) - new explosions and ash emissions A new phase of explosive eruptions began Wednesday afternoon at around 16:20 local time and intensified yesterday morning between 6 and 8 am. An ash plume rose about 3 km from the volcano.

 

 

^^ ETNA LIVE TRACKING WEBCAM

 

Etna volcano paroxysm 26 Oct 2013

                           
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

171

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

270-358

FLARES >

C

14

 

         

 

 

SOLAR FLUX (SFU)

160.2

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

C 1.2

 

M

06

 

           

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

02

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

80- 115 nT

weak CME impact

X

 

 

           

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

     

2013

   

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CLASS/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

 

11872

64° - 78° W

18° S

 

 

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 

 

11873

58° - 80 ° W

10° N

 

 

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (SHORT PERIOD FLUCTUATION) :

 

faded (OCT 23)

11874

47° - 61 ° W

12° S

 

OCT- 20

       

X-RAY/ SUNSPOTS >

EQUAL

ERUPTIONS >

MODERATE

 
most active >

11875

37° - 52 ° W

06° N

 

OCT 23

        LAST X RAY MINIMUM LAST X-RAY MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

   
faded (OCT 19)

11876

62° - 76 ° W

05° N

 

 

 

 

 

 

CANCELLED

CANCELLED

 

 
largest AR

11877

16° - 29 ° W

12° S

 

OCT- 24

     

 

 

 

rotating out ( OCT 24)

11878

     

 

       

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
REEMERGED

11879

00° - 14 ° W

12° S

 

OCT- 25/ 26

     

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
faded (OCT 23)

11880

29° - 15 °W

12° N

 

 

      *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
 

11881

22° - 08 ° E

22° S

 

OCT- 25

             
 

11882

63° - 49 °E

09° S

 

11:08 SAGIT OCT- 28/29      

SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

05

 

 

      INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX        

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

northeast quadrant

  20131025     INTERPLANETARY. CURRENT STATE: LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:        
              PROTON FLUX

RISING

NEW INCREASE AFTER OCT- 26/ 04 UTC

< RISING ON BACK TO NORMAL:

ONGOING

 

internal remarks:

 

 

        ELECTRON FLUX

DECREASING

INCREASE AFTER OCT 25/ 08 UTC

< RISING ON BACK TO NORMAL:

ONGOING

 
         
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 26/1927Z from Region 1884 (S09E78). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Oct, 28 Oct, 29 Oct).

 

 

   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

 

 

 

         
        * note: Due to the necessary evaluation of incoming data, NOAA space weather alerts are oftenly BACKDATED!  

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment / Protons

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

QUIET

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT (2)

PAST 24 h

ALERTS AS ISSUED BY NOAA

 

UNSETTLED

 

X RAY > M 5 (FLARES)

NONE M 5/ X1/ X 2.1

 

ACTIVE

CME

TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION TYPE II

TYPE II (1X) / IV ( 3x)

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

0757 UTC

 

MAJOR STORM

G 1

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

G1/ predicted

NONE

 
               

MINOR CME IMPACT

        GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS - 10 nT at 10:02 NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 02 nT after 2200  
  EFFECTIVE PROTONS

at 08:45 UTC

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS  
  new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report.

 

NOAA:        

LATEST SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS

          NOAA ELECTRONS> <NOAA PROTONS  

LATEST GEOEFFECTIVE SEP:

2013 suggested TIME OF SOLAR SEP EVENT: SEPTEMBER 29 at 21:45- 21: 59 UTC          
short event description> strong and fast filament eruption near CH 588 and CH UNN. associated with large sub surface SEP explosion       CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (PROTONS):  

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:  

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS: (2)

 

GEOEFFECTIVE > 10 MeV PROTONS :

20130930/ 00 UTC 20131007/0000 > 100 pfu 21.000 km/ second

major S 2 event

  > 10 MeV PROTONS(4)

> 0.1 < 1.0 pfu

+/- 0.1

HIGHTENED  
      ( end = if back to 0.1 pfu)             CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS:

 
GEOEFFECTIVE > 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS:

20131002/ 20131007

ongoing

80.000 pfu

     

>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS (1)

>9.000 < 30.000 pfu. (+)

>6.000 < 30.000 pfu. (-).

HIGHTENED  
GEOEFFECTIVE > 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS:

20131002/ 1930

 

7.000 pfu

  S 1

>2.0 MeV ELECTRONS(1)

>200 < 1.100 pfu. (-)

> 180 < 1.600 pfu. (-)

UNDER PROTON INFLUENCE

 

ABBREVIATIONS/ CLASS >
 

 

NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA

NO CURRENT DATA

UNKNOWN  

SOLAR STORMS (SAPor SEP ) ARE INTENSIVE EMISSIONS OF HIGH ACCELERATED SOLAR PARTICLES ( PROTON/ ELECTRONS)

  (2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values  
* SAP OR:" SEP" = SOLAR ACCELERATED (OR: ENERGETIC) PARTICLES (PR., EL.)
    (4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu