-----------------------

 

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alien- homepage.de- Earth quake statistics- -SUN SPOT ACTIVITY- 11- years solar cycle- last update: SEPTEMBER 09 - 2013- -07:00 UTC copyright: reserved

background image: Aurora Borealis /COMMONS / wikipedia
open source earthquake forecast project created and provided by: alien-homepage.de-

 

According to NASA, this 24th. 11 year sun spot cycle has probably a " twin peak"- the second in 2015. This projekt therefore will be prolongued.
 
2012/ 13 - MAXIMUM OF 11- YEAR SOLAR CYCLE
SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG

ARCHIVE SEPTEMBER - 2013

NASA STEREO BEACON

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PAGES RELATED TO THIS SOLAR/TERRESTRIAL PROJECT>
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SOHO REALTIME current view on the Sun
SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG/ ARCHIVES:
2013 >

SEP    
2012 >

2011 >
2010 >
NOTE: I WILL INTRODUCE A NEW ARCHIVE SYSTEM IN 2012. CLICK ON THE BUTTON (right) FOR THE NEW ARCHIVE DIRECTORY! >

Note: Due to the high data amount in these monthly archives, I am currently trying to improve this by putting the single archives into collapsible panels.

Also I will split the monthly archive into 4 weekly ones. click on the following tabs to open the collapsible panels. You can report to my blog, if you should still experience problems when loading this page.

click here to open panel with graphics, volcano maps , earthquake statistic- SEPTEMBER- 2013
   
ALL KNOWN VOLCANOES WORLDWIDE, WEEKLY ACTIVITY UPDATES, WEBCAMS, and much more on my "REGIONAL VOLCANO " MAPS:
INTERNAL MAPS: click on the images or links below to get to my large regional maps, where you find all volcanoes around the world with descriptions , webcams and much more such as ancients sites! . Weekly regular activity updates, special earthquakes events with many functions

world volcano map 1.0

world volcano map version 2.0

Europe and Western Asia Africa and Arabic peninsula Central America and Mexico South America- Northern part South America- Southern part Central America and Mexico Northern America Kamchatka peninsula Japan region Indonesia and Philippines Australia and Southern Pacific

 

SPACECRAFTS:
SoHO
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
SDO /AIA
Solar Dynamics Observatory
STEREO
Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory
GOES
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites

ACE

 
 
 
 
 
 
Advanced Composition Explorer

^^ internal Earthquake statistics- with Sun activity curves : green = SUNSPOT NUMBER, Pink= SOLAR FLUX, blue= PLANETARY A INDEX- right image: planetary constellations in March 2013

click here to see some of the paradox observations made during that solar cycle first possibly by observatory sopacecrafts: : CORONAL HOLES THOSE REAPPEAR DURING SEVERAL SOLAR ROTATION PERIODS ON THE SAME HELIOGRAPHIC POSITION

 

VIDEOS/ REPORTS, SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL EVENTS- SEPTEMBER - 2013:

VIDEOS/ REPORTS OF THE WEEK

   
 

 

 

   
 

 

 

 
MAJOR EARTH DIRECTED CMEs :
Inhalt
MAJOR EARTH DIRECTED CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME):

JULY- 2013

 
LATEST SOLAR CME EVENT :                  
  CMEs at:

 

ARRIVAL:

 

POLARITY: ALPHA (SEP) BETA UNKNOWN  

GOES/ GEOMAG. PROTON FLUX

GOES / X- RAY (nuclear activity/ solar flares)  

TRACKING NR.:

39/ 13

20130929/ 22:28 UTC 20130929/ 23: 29 UTC 20130930/ 0:30 UTC 20130930/ 1:30 UTC  

 

ACTIVE REGION:

   

 

Earth directed?

   

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

NEAR CH 588    

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

filament eruption

   
the event was associated to a major SEP- > (1) STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) SDO /AIA-comp (3) SoHO/ LASCO C 2

(4) SoHO/ LASCO C 32

 

 

TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << NOAA SPACE WEATHER ALERTS NOAA/ X RAY EVENTS: INTERNAL REPORT

 

 

try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION > 10 MeV PROTONS > 100 pfu  

Abbreviations:

LDE

= Long Duration Event

2013

alien-homepage.de

 

10 cm RADIO BURST  

 

   

SAP /SEP

= Solar Accelerated Particles/ Protons

       
RELATED TERRESTRIAL CME TRACKING REPORT                

ONGOING CME ARRIVAL

CME/ Nr.:

/13

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

SEASONAL MAIN IMPACT LATITUDES (JUNE):

> 15° S- > 45° N

STRENGTH:    

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENT

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN/ UTC GEOMAGNETIC HZ COMPONENT   MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  
APPROACHING...                       IMPACT POLARITY :        
REMARKS:           E internal (relatiuve CME mass value      
MULTIPLE CME EVENTS ( CLUSTERS) AND LATENCY EFFECTS:
 
CMEs/ APPROACHING:
01
 
     
SEPTEMBER- 30 - 2013: an extreme filament eruption occured early on September 30- 2013 from a near CENTRAL position on the Sun near Cronal Hole C 588 along with a strong and FULLY HALO CME. observable on SoHo imagery, that will make a full hit on the Earth sometime on Sept 31- October 01. Filament eruptions do not create a significant X ray signature, but likely can throw out more solar matter than any other eruption type. This matter from instable processes around CHs or Sunspots contains also rather noxious elements  
         
   
NONE
                       
                                 
                                 
 
SIGNIFICANT SOLAR AND TERESTRIAL EVENT LOGS

LATEST TERRESTRIAL EVENTS (last update- SEPTEMBER- 30 - 2013After tranquillity comes storm. Late on September 29 a good sixth of the western but near central visible sun disc was involved in a complex eruption. At 21: 49 a long stretched filament was ejected with high speed into space, triggered by a subsurface eruption in a large active but unspotted region between CH 588 and CH UNN. At 21: 59 a wide flash lightof the subsurface eruption became visible on a wide area around the previous eruption area . The event continued until 2 UTC on Sep 30 with many impressive loops forming out above the explosion area one after another on a line of several million km. The event was associated with a major SEP( meanwhile exceeding 100 pfu= S2 solar storm on the NOAA scale) , with first protons impacting around 24 UTC . SDO images suggest, the related solar SEP event was shortly before 21: 59, Thus the fastest protons had this a time a speed of appr. 20.888 km/ sec. The S2 proton storm

SEPTEMBER- 30 - 2013: an extreme filament eruption occured early on September 30- 2013 from a near CENTRAL position on the Sun near Cronal Hole C 588 along with a strong and FULLY HALO CME. observable on SoHo imagery, that will make a full hit on the Earth sometime on Sept 31- October 01. Filament eruptions do not create a significant X ray signature, but likely can throw out more solar matter than any other eruption type. This matter from instable processes around CHs or Sunspots contains also rather noxious elements

LATEST TERRESTRIAL EVENTS (last update- SEPTEMBER- 21 - 2013:Solar activity was very since End of August with less sun spots on the visible disc and almost no surface eruption on the entire sun. X ray emission dropped even to A level from September 07- 16. On Sept 17, solar activity then resumed again first with several filament eruptions, newly emerging sun spot and active regions, producing solar flares. AR 11850 rotated in on Sep 20 on a latitude near the solar equator and became the currently most active region. AR 11850 will cross the Central solar meridian appr. on September 25- 26.

 

 

   
   
   
   
 
MAJOR EARTH DIRECTED CMEs IN JUNE 2013:
Inhalt
MAJOR EARTH DIRECTED CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME):

SEPTEMBER- 2013

 

 

 

 

 

click here to open and close collapsible panel with the archived "SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG "SEPTEMBER 22- 30 2013

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

SEPTEMBER

 

DAY:

30

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 

      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERT ISSUED AT:

 

 

 

EPICENTER/ MAP AFFECTED REGION(S)

 

 
  click here for MEDIA report

 

CANCELLED AT:

 

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS >

NOAA TSUNAMI ALERT REPORT:

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 6.4 - KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND - 2013-09-30 05:55:55 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

30.92 S ; 178.26 W

DEPTH >

40 km

WAVE/HEIGHT

 

FREQUENCY

 

 

 

                 

note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!

 
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0):

 

AFRICA AND ITS TECTONIC BOUNDARIES

SELDOM

"E"

MAP

01

EURASIA >< AFRICA>< AMERICA >< ANTARCTICA M 5.5 - NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE - 2013-09-30 08:16:09 UTC  

PACIFIC/MAINLY WEST/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC.

FREQUENT

"B"

MAP

3x > M5

PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.4 - TONGA - 2013-09-30 22:40:59 UTC  
      MAP     M 5.4 - NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G. - 2013-09-30 12:25:26 UTC  
      MAP     M 5.2 - FIJI REGION - 2013-09-30 10:08:07 UTC  

REGION CHILE / ARGENTINE ( SA/ NASCA PLATE)

FREQUENT/ OCT- 2012

"D"

MAP

01

SOUTH AMERICA >< NASZA M 5.1 - BIO-BIO, CHILE - 2013-09-30 00:59:09 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  
 
                       

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 

         
   
   

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
           
NOAA/ ATLANTIC:

NOAA/ PACIFIC

 
ATLANTIC: There are no tropical cyclones in this region              

:

  CATHEGORIES  
:wunderground.com NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION DIRECTION TYPE/ CATH  
  Invest 97L

SEP- 28- 2013

NORTHERN ATLANTIC

25 MPH ()

76.0° W

15.0° N

250 KM NORTH OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA( GOM N

L

 
  Tropical Depression Eleven

SEP- 27- 2013

NORTHERN ATLANTIC

35 MPH ()

50.2° W

25.2° N

700 KM NORTHHEAST OF WEST INDIES N

TD

 
                     
PACIFIC There are no tropical cyclones in this region                
:wunderground.com NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION DIRECTION TYPE/ CATH  
Tropical Storm Wutip

SEP- 26- 2013

WESTERN PACIFIC

105 MPH (+)

111.7° E

16.7° N

200 KM EAST OF DONG HÖ/ NORTHERN VIETNAM N

TS (2)

 
                     
SOURCES>> NOAA/ Hurricane Center NASA/ GOES NOAA usno.navy.mil METEOALARM METEOSAT (EUROPE) EUMETSAT NOAA REAL TIME METEOSAT >>  
                           

HEADLINES

 

 

 

       

2013

  VARIOUS SOURCES  
 

/ the local.de/ 20131001)Explosion traps seven people in mineshaft

UPDATE: Three people are missing after a carbon dioxide explosion at a mine in central Germany trapped seven miners on Tuesday afternoon.Two of the seven have been rescued from the potash mine in Unterbreizbach, Thuringia, while contact has been made with another two miners who are safe below ground. It is not clear where the further three are, Bild newspaper reported.Explosives are used to free potash salts from the earth, and it is thought that doing so released a carbon dioxide leak so big that there was an explosion which trapped the seven people. Thuringia's environment ministry said normally this does not cause an explosion, but it is a risk in potash mining. ...read more...

   
What's Up for October 2013NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory/    
                           
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

42

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

275-330

FLARES >

C

 

 

CH UNN.

NORTH

FADED ON SEP 30

SEP- 24- 2013

SEP- 28

 

 

SOLAR FLUX (SFU)

104.9

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 2.5

 

M

 

 

CH 588

CENTRAL

GROWING

SEP- 24- 2013

SEP- 29

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

02

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

65- 120 nT

under proton influence

X

 

 

           

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

     

2013

   

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

faded ( SEP 20)

11844

50°- 64° W

23° N

AXX

 

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 

faded ( SEP 26)

11845

41° - 55 ° W

18 ° S

BXO

 

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (SHORT PERIOD FLUCTUATION) :

 

 

11846

70° - 84 ° W

18 ° S

HSX

         

X-RAY/ SUNSPOTS >

DROPPING

ERUPTIONS >

ACTIVE

 
faded ( SEP 26)

11847

35° - 49 ° W

10 ° N

BXO

          LAST X RAY MINIMUM LAST X-RAY MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

   
faded again ( SEP 24)

11848

10° E- 02 ° W

10 ° S

AXX

 

 

 

 

 

20130611

20130710

 

 
rotating out (SEP29)

11849

84° - 98 ° W

20 ° N

BXO

       

 

 

 

 

11850

46° - 60 ° W

08 ° N

DSO

 

       

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
 

11851

08° - 22 ° W

18 ° S

BXO

SEP 28

     

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
rotated out (SEP28)

11852

              *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
rotated out (SEP28>

11853

                     
NEWLY EMERGED>

11854

63°- 49° E

05° N

DSO/ DAO

               

SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

04

 

        INTERPLANETARY. CURRENT STATE: LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:        

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

          PROTON FLUX

HIGH

STRONG RISE AFTER SEP /20130929/ 21 45

< RISING ON BACK TO NORMAL:

ONGOING

 
              ELECTRON FLUX

HIGH

STRONG RISE AFTER SEP /20130929/ 21 45

< RISING ON DROPPING UNTIL>

ONGOING

 

internal remarks:

 

 

       

 

PROTON STORM ENDED DECREASING INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

 

 
         
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 29/2339Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Oct, 02 Oct, 03 Oct).

 

 

                   
 
   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

 

 

 

         
        * note: Due to the necessary evaluation of incoming data, NOAA space weather alerts are oftenly BACKDATED!  

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

QUIET

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT (2)

PAST 24 h

REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

UNSETTLED

 

X RAY EVENT (FLARES)

NONE NONE

 

ACTIVE

CME

TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION NONE

NONE

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

R 1

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

NONE

 

MAJOR STORM

G 1

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

 
               

MINOR CME IMPACT

  GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -09 nT/ USAF at 1208 NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 03 nT/ at 09: 59UTC  
EFFECTIVE PROTONS

at 20:15UTC

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS  
new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report.

 

NOAA:      

LATEST SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS

          NOAA ELECTRONS> <NOAA PROTONS  

LATEST GEOEFFECTIVE SEP:

2013 suggested TIME OF SOLAR SEP EVENT: SEPTEMBER 29 at 21:45- 21: 59 UTC          
short event description> strong and fast filament eruption near CH 588 and CH UNN. associated with large sub surface explosion       CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (PROTONS):  

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:  

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS:

 

GEOEFFECTIVE > 10 MeV PROTONS :

20130930/ 00 UTC ongoing > 100 pfu 21.000 km/ second

major S 2 event

  > 10 MeV PROTONS(4)

> 100 pfu.

+/- 0.1 pfu.

PROTON SEP  
                    CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS:

 
GEOEFFECTIVE > 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS:          

>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS (1)

>2000 < 9.000 pfu. (-) ( EQUAL)

>2000 < 7.000 pfu. (-) ( LOW)

PROTON IMPACT  
GEOEFFECTIVE > 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS:        

>2.0 MeV ELECTRONS(1)

>04 < 20 pfu (EQUAL)

>04 < 11 pfu (EQUAL)

PROTON IMPACT

 

ABBREVIATIONS/ CLASS >
 

 

NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO DATA

<- 6.6 > -7.7

RISING  

SOLAR STORMS (SAPor SEP ) ARE INTENSIVE EMISSIONS OF HIGH ACCELERATED SOLAR PARTICLES ( PROTON/ ELECTRONS)

  (2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values  
* SAP OR:" SEP" = SOLAR ACCELERATED (OR: ENERGETIC) PARTICLES (PR., EL.)
    (4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu  
                     

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM      

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 279 km/s at 30/0134Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 30/0514Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 30/0305Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 181 pfu at 30/2005Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 629 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Oct), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (02 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (03 Oct). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days one, two, and three (01 Oct, 02 Oct, 03 Oct).

 

 

 

             
           

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

          (INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS  
     
             

CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL EVENTS

LAST UPDATE

20130930    

 

 

 

 
GEOMAGNETIC STORM   CME IMPACT

APPROACHING CMEs :

01 SEP (Solar Energetic Particles). > 10 MeV PROTONS > 100 pfu > 2 MeV ELECTRONS AFFECTED  

LATEST TERRESTRIAL EVENTS (last update- SEPTEMBER- 30 - 2013After tranquillity comes storm. Late on September 29 a good sixth of the western but near central visible sun disc was involved in a complex eruption. First a long stretched filament was ejected with high speed into space, triggered by a subsurface eruption in a large active but unspotted region between CH 588 and CH UNN. further north. The event continued until 2 UTC on Sep 30 with many impressive loops forming out above the explosion area with hundreds of loops one after another on a line of several million km. The event was associated with a major SEP( meanwhile exceeding 100 pfu= S2 solar storm on the nOAA scale) , with first protons impacting around 24 UTC . SDO images suggest, the related solar SEP event was shortly before 21: 59, Thus the fastest protons had this a time a speed of appr. 20.888 km/ sec. The S2 proton storm continues on OCT 01.

 
 
 
 
 
       

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130820/21

EFFECTIVE CMEs/ int. Nrs. >

MINOR SEP AND 2 CMEs Nr. 34/ 13 a,b,

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

CME EFFECTIVITY:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / HOT SPOTS (+) N- AMERICA/ ALASKA LONGITUDES: 30° - 90° W/ 150- 180° W ACCUMULATING SAP events

 

ALERT LEVEL

* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

 
UNEXPECTED SEP* EVENT SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS/ TORNADOES (-) SOUTH AMERICA/ W

PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< NASCA

IMPACT HEMISPHERE:

 

UNEXPECTED SEP* EVENT ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES TODAY ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3) hh

POLAR HEATING BY SEP CENTRAL AMERICA

ATLANTIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< CARRIBEAN >< COCOS

NORTH

 

30. SEPTEMBER 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

EAST & CTR: PACIFIC PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< INDO-AUS

 

 

M 5.5- >8.0 (POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (HIGH)

 
INDUCED CURRENTS (POSSIBLE) SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS : SEVERAL RECENT SAP EVENTS AND CMES HAVE ACCUMULATED A HIGH POTENTIAL OF (HEAT-) ENERGY WITHIN THE EARTH BODY!

 

01. OCTOBER 2013

 
RADIO BLACKOUTS (PROTON INFLUENCE) PACIFIC/ EURO- EAST LONGITUDES : 180°- 90° E

 

M 5.5- >7.5 (POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (DECREASING?)

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) EASTERN ATLANTIC

EURASIA >< N- AMERICA>

 

02. OCTOBER 2013

 

ELECTRON STORM AFTER PROTON STORM (-)

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS:

 

M 5.5- 7.0 (POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-2 (PRELIMINARY)

 

SEP EFFECTS:

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION AND STORM (+)

EURASIA

LONGITUDES : 90° E - 00- 30° W *REGIONS> see definition below

 

LATENCIES:

 
TECTONICS ELECTRONS HEATING UP TECTONIC PLATES

VOLCANO/ HOT SPOT ACTIVITY >

HIGHER DURING PROTON IMPACT  

INFLUENCES:

HIGHTENED ACTIVE ELECTRONS PROTON IMPACT (SEP)  

EARTHQUAKES

TECTONICS COOLING DOWN (+) ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY >>> HIGHER DURING PROTON IMPACT

 

EFFECTING AS >

INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS:  
NEXT TIME OUTLOOK :               (TODAY`S EQ FORECAST IS ONLY PRELIMINARY AND MIGHT BE REVISED LATER TODAY)  

ELECTRONS LIKELY TO DROP AGAIN IN THE COMING DAYS

 

abbreviations:

 

(+) means: this activity is INCREASING

(-) means: This activity is DECREASING

 

* SAP/SEP = Solar Accelerated /Energetic PARTICLES (Protons, Electrons)

 
NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!  
     

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

SEPTEMBER

 

DAY:

29

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 

      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERT ISSUED AT:

 

 

 

EPICENTER/ MAP AFFECTED REGION(S)

 

 
  click here for MEDIA report

 

CANCELLED AT:

 

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS >

NOAA TSUNAMI ALERT REPORT:

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.6 - BIO-BIO, CHILE - 2013-09-29 23:23:17 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

37.44 S ; 73.44 W

DEPTH >

20 km

WAVE/HEIGHT

 

FREQUENCY

 

 

 

                 

note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!

 
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0):

 

REGION CHILE / ARGENTINE ( SA/ NASCA PLATE)

FREQUENT/ OCT- 2012

"D"

MAP

o2

  M 5.3 - OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE - 2013-09-29 23:06:57 UTC  

KAMCHATKA PENINSULA/ KURIL ISLANDS / JAPAN

FREQUENT

"B"

MAP

01

N-AMERICA >< EURASIA >< PACIFIC><PHIL. M 5.3 - KURIL ISLANDS - 2013-09-29 13:31:34 UTC  

PACIFIC/MAINLY WEST/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC.

FREQUENT

"B"

MAP

01

PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.0 - BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G. - 2013-09-29 08:56:00 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  
 
                       

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 

         
   
   

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
           
NOAA/ ATLANTIC:

NOAA/ PACIFIC

 
ATLANTIC: There are no tropical cyclones in this region              

:

  CATHEGORIES  
:wunderground.com NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION DIRECTION TYPE/ CATH  
  Invest 97L SEP- 28- 2013 NORTHERN ATLANTIC

25 MPH ()

78.7° W

14.1° N

250 KM EAST OF NICARAGUA W

L

 
  Tropical Depression Eleven SEP- 27- 2013 NORTHERN ATLANTIC

35 MPH ()

47.0° W

27.0° N

800 KM NORTHHEAST OF ANTIGUA/ WEST INDIES ENE

TD

 
                     
PACIFIC There are no tropical cyclones in this region                
:wunderground.com NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION DIRECTION TYPE/ CATH  
  Tropical Depression Twenty-one SEP- 29- 2013 WESTERN PACIFIC

35 MPH ()

146.7° E

26.6° N

700 KM SSE OF TOKYO/ JAPAN WNW    
Typhoon Wutip SEP- 26- 2013 WESTERN PACIFIC

85 MPH (+)

108.5° E

17.2° N

< 100 KM EAST OF DONG HÖ/ NORTHERN VIETNAM W

TS (2)

 
                     
SOURCES>> NOAA/ Hurricane Center NASA/ GOES NOAA usno.navy.mil METEOALARM METEOSAT (EUROPE) EUMETSAT NOAA REAL TIME METEOSAT >>  
                           

HEADLINES

2013

SEPTEMBER 30

 

       

2013

  VARIOUS SOURCES  

(volcano- discovery/ 20130930) Strong submarine eruption of Jebel Zubair volcano, Red Sea

A new submarine eruption started on September 28, 2013 NW of the island Jebel Zubair in the Red Sea. The ongoing eruption is SW of the 2011-12 eruption which created a new volcanic island there. This is occurring along the Zubair Group, a collection of small islands off the west coast of Yemen. Running in a roughly northwest-southeast line, the islands poke above the sea surface, rising from a shield volcano. This region is part of the Red Sea Rift where the African and Arabian tectonic plates pull apart and new ocean crust regularly forms. The latest activity manifested itself in form of a strong SO2 anomaly and steam plume spotted on satellite imagery. The presence of the significant steam plume suggests that the eruption vent is a shallow depth (less than 100 m), and possibly in the stage of producing so-called surtseyan activity (violent steam-driven explosions breach the surface with jets of water and steam, and become more and more rich in lava fragments as the vent becomes shallower)....read more...

 
(^^the watchers.com) Strong submarine eruption of Jebel Zubair volcano, Red Sea   ^NOAA/ DRAP/ global- 201330/ 12:44: global heat impact of S1 proton storm
                           
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

39

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

284-313

FLARES >

C

03

 

CH UNN.

NORTH

GROWING AGAIN

SEP- 24- 2013

SEP- 28

 

 

SOLAR FLUX (SFU)

103.1

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 3.0

 

M

 

 

CH 588

CENTRAL

GROWING

SEP- 24- 2013

SEP- 29

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

02

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

87- 135 nT

under proton influence

X

 

 

           

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

     

2013

   

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

faded ( SEP 20)

11844

50°- 64° W

23° N

AXX

 

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 

faded ( SEP 26)

11845

41° - 55 ° W

18 ° S

BXO

 

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (SHORT PERIOD FLUCTUATION) :

 

 

11846

70° - 84 ° W

18 ° S

HSX

         

X-RAY/ SUNSPOTS >

RISING

ERUPTIONS >

ACTIVE

 
faded ( SEP 26)

11847

35° - 49 ° W

10 ° N

BXO

          LAST X RAY MINIMUM LAST X-RAY MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

   
faded again ( SEP 24)

11848

10° E- 02 ° W

10 ° S

AXX

 

 

 

 

 

20130611

20130710

 

 
rotating out (SEP29)

11849

84° - 98 ° W

20 ° N

BXO

       

 

 

 

 

11850

46° - 60 ° W

08 ° N

DSO

 

       

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
 

11851

08° - 22 ° W

18 ° S

BXO

SEP 28

     

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
rotated out (SEP28)

11852

              *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
rotated out (SEP28>

11853

                     
NEWLY EMERGED>

11854

63°- 49° E

05° N

DSO/ DAO

               

SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

04

 

        INTERPLANETARY. CURRENT STATE: LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:        

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

          PROTON FLUX

NORMAL

SHORT IMPULS 20130925/ 2 UTC

< RISING ON BACK TO NORMAL:

SEP 25/ 04 UTC

 
              ELECTRON FLUX

NORMAL

SHORT IMPULS 20130925/ 2 UTC

< RISING ON DROPPING UNTIL>

SEP 25/ 04 UTC

 

internal remarks:

 

 

       

 

PROTON STORM ENDED DECREASING INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

 

 
         
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1/Sf event observed at 29/0525Z from Region 1850 (N10W60). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02 Oct)

 

 

                   
SOLAR CME EVENT (TEMPLATE ONLY):                  
  CMEs at:

 

ARRIVAL:

 

POLARITY: ALPHA (SEP) BETA UNKNOWN  

GOES/ GEOMAG. PROTON FLUX

GOES / X- RAY (nuclear activity/ solar flares)  

TRACKING NR.:

39/ 13

20130929/ 22:28 UTC 20130929/ 23: 29 UTC 20130930/ 0:30 UTC 20130930/ 1:30 UTC  

 

ACTIVE REGION:

   

 

Earth directed?

   

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

NEAR CH 588    

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

filament eruption

   
the event was associated to a major SEP- > (1) STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) SDO /AIA-comp (3) SoHO/ LASCO C 2

(4) SoHO/ LASCO C 32

 

 

TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << NOAA SPACE WEATHER ALERTS NOAA/ X RAY EVENTS: INTERNAL REPORT

 

 

try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION > 10 MeV PROTONS > 100 pfu  

Abbreviations:

LDE

= Long Duration Event

2013

alien-homepage.de

 

10 cm RADIO BURST  

 

   

SAP /SEP

= Solar Accelerated Particles/ Protons

       
RELATED TERRESTRIAL CME TRACKING REPORT                

ONGOING CME ARRIVAL

CME/ Nr.:

/13

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

SEASONAL MAIN IMPACT LATITUDES (JUNE):

> 15° S- > 45° N

STRENGTH:    

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENT

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN/ UTC GEOMAGNETIC HZ COMPONENT   MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  
APPROACHING...                       IMPACT POLARITY :        
REMARKS:           E internal (relatiuve CME mass value      
MULTIPLE CME EVENTS ( CLUSTERS) AND LATENCY EFFECTS:
 
CMEs/ APPROACHING:
01
 
     
SEPTEMBER- 30 - 2013: an extreme filament eruption occured early on September 30- 2013 from a near CENTRAL position on the Sun near Cronal Hole C 588 along with a strong and FULLY HALO CME. observable on SoHo imagery, that will make a full hit on the Earth sometime on Sept 31- October 01. Filament eruptions do not create a significant X ray signature, but likely can throw out more solar matter than any other eruption type. This matter from instable processes around CHs or Sunspots contains also rather noxious elements  
         
 
   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

 

 

 

         
        * note: Due to the necessary evaluation of incoming data, NOAA space weather alerts are oftenly BACKDATED!  

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

QUIET

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT (2)

PAST 24 h

REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

UNSETTLED

 

X RAY EVENT (FLARES)

NONE NONE

 

ACTIVE

CME

TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION NONE

NONE

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

R 1

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

NONE

 

MAJOR STORM

G 1

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

 
               

MINOR CME IMPACT

  GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -09 nT/ USAF at 1208 NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 03 nT/ at 09: 59UTC  
EFFECTIVE PROTONS

11:01UTC

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS  
new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report.

 

NOAA:      

LATEST SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS

          NOAA ELECTRONS> <NOAA PROTONS  

LATEST GEOEFFECTIVE SEP:

               
short event description> SEP/ associated with 2 CMEs (AR 11817 and 11818).       CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (PROTONS):  

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:  

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS:

 

EFFECTIVE > 10 MeV PROTONS :

20130817/2300 20130819/ 06 UTC 0.7 pfu. 8300 km/ second

rather minor/ weak event

  > 10 MeV PROTONS(4)

+/- 0.1 pfu.

+/- 0.1 pfu.

NORMAL  
    20130820/ 0600 20130822/ 12 UTC 2.0 pfu SLOW

P-flux dropped but resumed again

      CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS:

 
EFFECTIVE > 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS: 20130816/00800 20130910/ 2000 1.005. 000 --  

>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS (1)

>2000 < 9.000 pfu. (-) ( EQUAL)

>2000 < 9.000 pfu. (-) ( LOW)

   
EFFECTIVE > 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS: 20130816/ 0800 20130910/ 2000 10.500 --

>2.0 MeV ELECTRONS(1)

>04 < 11 pfu (EQUAL)

>04 < 11 pfu (VERY LOW!)

 

 

ABBREVIATIONS/ CLASS >
 

 

NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO DATA

<- 6.6 > -7.7

RISING  

SOLAR STORMS (SAPor SEP ) ARE INTENSIVE EMISSIONS OF HIGH ACCELERATED SOLAR PARTICLES ( PROTON/ ELECTRONS)

  (2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values  
* SAP OR:" SEP" = SOLAR ACCELERATED (OR: ENERGETIC) PARTICLES (PR., EL.)
    (4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu  
                     

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM      

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 303 km/s at 29/1922Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (01 Oct, 02 Oct).

 

 

 

             
           

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

          (INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS  
     
             

CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL EVENTS

LAST UPDATE

20130924    

 

 

 

 
GEOMAGNETIC STORM   CME IMPACT

APPROACHING CMEs :

NONE SEP (Solar Energetic Particles). > 10 MeV PROTONS > 10 pfu > 2 MeV ELECTRONS    

LATEST TERRESTRIAL EVENTS (last update- SEPTEMBER- 21 - 2013:Solar activity was very since End of August with less sun spots on the visible disc and almost no surface eruption on the entire sun. X ray emission dropped even to A level from September 07- 16. On Sept 17, solar activity then resumed again first with several filament eruptions, newly emerging sun spot and active regions, producing solar flares. AR 11850 rotated in on Sep 20 on a latitude near the solar equator and became the currently most active region. AR 11850 will cross the Central solar meridian appr. on September 25- 26.

 
 
 
 
 
       

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130820/21

EFFECTIVE CMEs/ int. Nrs. >

MINOR SEP AND 2 CMEs Nr. 34/ 13 a,b,

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

CME EFFECTIVITY:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / HOT SPOTS (-) N- AMERICA/ ALASKA LONGITUDES: 30° - 90° W/ 150- 180° W ACCUMULATING SAP events

 

ALERT LEVEL

* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

 
DROPPING ELECTRONS

SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS/ TORNADOES (-)

SOUTH AMERICA/ W

PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< NASCA

IMPACT HEMISPHERE:

 

ALERT LEVEL

* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

hh

POLAR HEATING EFF. /GLACIAL MELTDOWNS CENTRAL AMERICA

ATLANTIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< CARRIBEAN >< COCOS

NORTH

 

UNEXPECTED PROTON EVENT ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES TODAY ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)  

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

EAST & CTR: PACIFIC PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< INDO-AUS

 

 

29. SEPTEMBER 2013

 
INDUCED CURRENTS (POSSIBLE) SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS : SEVERAL RECENT SAP EVENTS AND CMES HAVE ACCUMULATED A HIGH POTENTIAL OF (HEAT-) ENERGY WITHIN THE EARTH BODY!

 

M 5.5- >7.0 (POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (RISING)

 
RADIO BLACKOUTS (PROTON INFLUENCE) PACIFIC/ EURO- EAST LONGITUDES : 180°- 90° E

 

30. SEPTEMBER 2013

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) EASTERN ATLANTIC

EURASIA >< N- AMERICA>

 

M 5.5- >7.5 (POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (HIGH)

 

ELECTRON STORM AFTER PROTON STORM (-)

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS:

 

01 . OCTOBER 2013

 

SEP EFFECTS:

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION AND STORM (+)

EURASIA

LONGITUDES : 90° E - 00- 30° W *REGIONS> see definition below

 

M 5.5- 7.0 (POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-2 (PRELIMINARY)

 
TECTONICS ELECTRONS HEATING UP TECTONIC PLATES

VOLCANO/ HOT SPOT ACTIVITY >

DECREASING

 

INFLUENCES:

HIGHTENED ACTIVE ELECTRONS MINOR PROTON IMPACT (CME)  

EARTHQUAKES

TECTONICS COOLING DOWN (+) ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY >>> ( END OF SEP/ INCREASING)

 

EFFECTING AS >

INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS:  
NEXT TIME OUTLOOK :               (TODAY`S EQ FORECAST IS ONLY PRELIMINARY AND MIGHT BE REVISED LATER TODAY)  

ELECTRONS LIKELY TO DROP AGAIN IN THE COMING DAYS

 

abbreviations:

 

(+) means: this activity is INCREASING

(-) means: This activity is DECREASING

 

* SAP/SEP = Solar Accelerated /Energetic PARTICLES (Protons, Electrons)

 
NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!  
     

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

SEPTEMBER

 

DAY:

28

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 

      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERT ISSUED AT:

 

 

 

EPICENTER/ MAP AFFECTED REGION(S)

 

 
  click here for MEDIA report

 

CANCELLED AT:

 

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS >

NOAA TSUNAMI ALERT REPORT:

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 6.8 - PAKISTAN - 2013-09-28 07:34:08 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

27.27 N ; 65.55 E

DEPTH >

22 km

WAVE/HEIGHT

 

FREQUENCY

 

 

 

                 

note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!

 
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0):

 

PACIFIC/MAINLY WEST/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC.

FREQUENT

"B"

MAP 2 PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.7 - TONGA - 2013-09-28 11:13:47 UTC  
      MAP     M 5.0 - EAST OF SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS - 2013-09-28 02:39:41 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  
 
                       

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 

         
   
   

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
           
NOAA/ ATLANTIC:

NOAA/ PACIFIC

 
ATLANTIC: There are no tropical cyclones in this region              

:

  CATHEGORIES  
:wunderground.com NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION DIRECTION TYPE/ CATH  
  Invest 96L

SEP- 27- 2013

NORTHERN ATLANTIC

35 MPJ ()

50.0° W

21.1° N

600 KM NORTHHEAST OF WEST INDIES

NW

L

 
                     
PACIFIC There are no tropical cyclones in this region                
:wunderground.com NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION DIRECTION TYPE/ CATH  
Tropical Storm Wutip

SEP- 26- 2013

WESTERN PACIFIC

70 MPH (+)

114.1° E

16.7° N

200 KM WEST OF PHILIPPINES/ 600 KM EAST OF LAOS N

TS

 
Invest 92E

SEP- 25- 2013

WESTERN PACIFIC

25 MPH (-)

106.4° W

18.1 ° N

100 KM SWW OF MANZANILLO/ MEXICO

WNW

L

 
                     
SOURCES>> NOAA/ Hurricane Center NASA/ GOES NOAA usno.navy.mil METEOALARM METEOSAT (EUROPE) EUMETSAT NOAA REAL TIME METEOSAT >>  
                           
                           

HEADLINES

2013

September 28

 

       

2013

  VARIOUS SOURCES  
 

(la times- 20130929) New Pakistan quake kills 12; militants kill 4 troops, military says

KARACHI, Pakistan – A 6.8 magnitude temblor struck southwestern Pakistan on Saturday, killing at least 12 people in the same province where several hundred people perished in a major earthquake Tuesday. Meanwhile, four members of Pakistan's armed forces transporting rations to earthquake victims were shot to death by militants Saturday, the Pakistani military reported....read more...

(reuters) Pakistan 7.7 quake toll reaches 515 - insurgents hamper aid efforts.

(BBC- 20130927) IPCC climate report: humans 'dominant cause' of warming

A landmark report says scientists are 95% certain that humans are the "dominant cause" of global warming since the 1950s. The report by the UN's climate panel details the physical evidence behind climate change. On the ground, in the air, in the oceans, global warming is "unequivocal", it explained. It adds that a pause in warming over the past 15 years is too short to reflect long-term trends. The panel warns that continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in all aspects of the climate system....read more... 

 
    ^(NASA( MODIS/ MAY 01- 31- 2013) GLOBAL PATTERNS OF CARBON DIOXIDE
                           
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

58

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

279-317

FLARES >

C

 

 

CH UNN.

NORTH

DECAYING

SEP- 24- 2013

SEP- 28

 

 

SOLAR FLUX (SFU)

105.7

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 2.5

 

M

 

 

CH 588

CENTRAL

GROWING

SEP- 24- 2013

SEP- 29

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

01

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

80- 115 nT

under proton influence

X

 

 

           

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

     

2013

   

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

rotated out ( Sep25)

11843

77° - 91° W

03° S

CAO/ BXO

 

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 

faded ( SEP 20)

11844

50°- 64° W

23° N

AXX

 

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (SHORT PERIOD FLUCTUATION) :

 

faded ( SEP 26)

11845

41° - 55 ° W

18 ° S

BXO

         

X-RAY/ SUNSPOTS >

DROPPING

ERUPTIONS >

ACTIVE

 
 

11846

56° - 70 ° W

18 ° S

HSX/ CSO

          LAST X RAY MINIMUM LAST X-RAY MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

   
faded ( SEP 26)

11847

35° - 49 ° W

10 ° N

BXO

 

 

 

 

 

20130611

20130710

 

 
faded again ( SEP 24)

11848

10° E- 02 ° W

10 ° S

AXX

       

 

 

 

 

11849

73° - 87 ° W

20 ° N

BXO

         

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
 

11850

31° - 45 ° W

08 ° N

DAO/ DSI

 

     

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
 

11851

04° E - 09 ° W

18 ° S

AXX

SEP 28

      *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
rotating out (SEP28)

11852

79° - 83 ° W

20 ° S

BXO

 

             
rotated out (SEP28>

11853

78° - 92 ° W

19 ° N

CRO/ DRO

SEP 28

             

SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

04

 

        INTERPLANETARY. CURRENT STATE: LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:        

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

          PROTON FLUX

NORMAL

SHORT IMPULS 20130925/ 2 UTC

< RISING ON BACK TO NORMAL:

SEP 25/ 04 UTC

 
              ELECTRON FLUX

NORMAL

SHORT IMPULS 20130925/ 2 UTC

< RISING ON DROPPING UNTIL>

SEP 25/ 04 UTC

 

internal remarks:

 

 

       

 

PROTON STORM ENDED DECREASING INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

 

 
         
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Sep, 30 Sep, 01 Oct).

 

 

 
   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

 

 

 

         
        * note: Due to the necessary evaluation of incoming data, NOAA space weather alerts are oftenly BACKDATED!  

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

QUIET

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT (2)

PAST 24 h

REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

UNSETTLED

 

X RAY EVENT (FLARES)

NONE NONE

 

ACTIVE

CME

TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION NONE

NONE

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

R 1

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

NONE

 

MAJOR STORM

G 1

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

 
               

MINOR CME IMPACT

  GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -09 nT/ USAF at 1108 NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 03 nT/ at 09: 59UTC  
EFFECTIVE PROTONS

11:01UTC

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS  
new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report.

 

NOAA:      

LATEST SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS

          NOAA ELECTRONS> <NOAA PROTONS  

LATEST GEOEFFECTIVE SEP:

               
short event description> SEP/ associated with 2 CMEs (AR 11817 and 11818).       CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (PROTONS):  

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:  

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS:

 

EFFECTIVE > 10 MeV PROTONS :

20130817/2300 20130819/ 06 UTC 0.7 pfu. 8300 km/ second

rather minor/ weak event

  > 10 MeV PROTONS(4)

+/- 0.1 pfu.

+/- 0.1 pfu.

NORMAL  
    20130820/ 0600 20130822/ 12 UTC 2.0 pfu SLOW

P-flux dropped but resumed again

      CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS:

 
EFFECTIVE > 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS: 20130816/00800 20130910/ 2000 1.005. 000 --  

>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS (1)

>2000 < 9.000 pfu. (-) ( LOW)

>2000 < 9.000 pfu. (-) ( LOW)

   
EFFECTIVE > 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS: 20130816/ 0800 20130910/ 2000 10.500 --

>2.0 MeV ELECTRONS(1)

>04 < 11 pfu (VERY LOW!)

>04 < 11 pfu (VERY LOW!)

 

 

ABBREVIATIONS/ CLASS >
 

 

NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) <- 5.3 > -6.6

<- 6.6 > -7.7

RISING  

SOLAR STORMS (SAPor SEP ) ARE INTENSIVE EMISSIONS OF HIGH ACCELERATED SOLAR PARTICLES ( PROTON/ ELECTRONS)

  (2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values  
* SAP OR:" SEP" = SOLAR ACCELERATED (OR: ENERGETIC) PARTICLES (PR., EL.)
    (4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu  
                     

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM      

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 326 km/s at 27/2121Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (29 Sep, 30 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Oct).

 

 

 

             
           

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

          (INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS  
     
             

CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL EVENTS

LAST UPDATE

20130924    

 

 

 

 
GEOMAGNETIC STORM   CME IMPACT

APPROACHING CMEs :

NONE SEP (Solar Energetic Particles). > 10 MeV PROTONS > 10 pfu > 2 MeV ELECTRONS    

LATEST TERRESTRIAL EVENTS (last update- SEPTEMBER- 21 - 2013:Solar activity was very since End of August with less sun spots on the visible disc and almost no surface eruption on the entire sun. X ray emission dropped even to A level from September 07- 16. On Sept 17, solar activity then resumed again first with several filament eruptions, newly emerging sun spot and active regions, producing solar flares. AR 11850 rotated in on Sep 20 on a latitude near the solar equator and became the currently most active region. AR 11850 will cross the Central solar meridian appr. on September 25- 26.

 
 
 
 
 
       

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130820/21

EFFECTIVE CMEs/ int. Nrs. >

MINOR SEP AND 2 CMEs Nr. 34/ 13 a,b,

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

CME EFFECTIVITY:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / HOT SPOTS (-) N- AMERICA/ ALASKA LONGITUDES: 30° - 90° W/ 150- 180° W ACCUMULATING SAP events

 

ALERT LEVEL

* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

 
DROPPING ELECTRONS

SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS/ TORNADOES (-)

SOUTH AMERICA/ W

PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< NASCA

IMPACT HEMISPHERE:

 

COOLING TECTONICS ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES TODAY ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3) hh

POLAR HEATING EFF. /GLACIAL MELTDOWNS CENTRAL AMERICA

ATLANTIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< CARRIBEAN >< COCOS

NORTH

 

28. SEPTEMBER 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

EAST & CTR: PACIFIC PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< INDO-AUS

 

 

M 5.5- >7.0 (POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (HIGH)

 
INDUCED CURRENTS (POSSIBLE) SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS : SEVERAL RECENT SAP EVENTS AND CMES HAVE ACCUMULATED A HIGH POTENTIAL OF (HEAT-) ENERGY WITHIN THE EARTH BODY!

 

29. SEPTEMBER 2013

 
RADIO BLACKOUTS (PROTON INFLUENCE) PACIFIC/ EURO- EAST LONGITUDES : 180°- 90° E

 

M 5.5- >7.0 (POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (DECREASING?)

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) EASTERN ATLANTIC

EURASIA >< N- AMERICA>

 

30 . SEPTEMBER 2013

 

ELECTRON STORM AFTER PROTON STORM (-)

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS:

 

M 5.5- 7.0 (POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-2 (PRELIMINARY)

 

SEP EFFECTS:

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION AND STORM (+)

EURASIA

LONGITUDES : 90° E - 00- 30° W *REGIONS> see definition below

 

LATENCIES:

 
TECTONICS ELECTRONS HEATING UP TECTONIC PLATES

VOLCANO/ HOT SPOT ACTIVITY >

DECREASING

 

INFLUENCES:

HIGHTENED ACTIVE ELECTRONS MINOR PROTON IMPACT (CME)  

EARTHQUAKES

TECTONICS COOLING DOWN (+) ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY >>> ( END OF SEP/ INCREASING)

 

EFFECTING AS >

INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS:  
NEXT TIME OUTLOOK :               (TODAY`S EQ FORECAST IS ONLY PRELIMINARY AND MIGHT BE REVISED LATER TODAY)  

ELECTRONS LIKELY TO DROP AGAIN IN THE COMING DAYS

 

abbreviations:

 

(+) means: this activity is INCREASING

(-) means: This activity is DECREASING

 

* SAP/SEP = Solar Accelerated /Energetic PARTICLES (Protons, Electrons)

 
NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!  
     

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

SEPTEMBER

 

DAY:

27

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 

      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERT ISSUED AT:

 

 

 

EPICENTER/ MAP AFFECTED REGION(S)

 

 
  click here for MEDIA report

 

CANCELLED AT:

 

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS >

NOAA TSUNAMI ALERT REPORT:

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.1 - TONGA - 2013-09-27 15:24:14 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

20.40 S ; 173.73 W

DEPTH >

45 km

WAVE/HEIGHT

 

FREQUENCY

 

 

 

                 

note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!

 
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0):

 

PACIFIC/MAINLY WEST/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC.

FREQUENT

"B"

MAP

01

PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.0 - SOLOMON ISLANDS - 2013-09-27 21:52:50 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  
 
                       

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 

         
   
   

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
           
NOAA/ ATLANTIC:

NOAA/ PACIFIC

 
ATLANTIC: There are no tropical cyclones in this region              

:

  CATHEGORIES  
:wunderground.com NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION DIRECTION TYPE/ CATH  
                     
                     
PACIFIC There are no tropical cyclones in this region                
:wunderground.com NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION DIRECTION TYPE/ CATH  
Tropical Storm Twenty SEP- 26- 2013 WESTERN PACIFIC

40 MPH ()

116.4° E

16.9° N

200 KM WEST OF PHILIPPINES/ 600 KM EAST OF LAOS NW

TS

 
Invest 92E SEP- 25- 2013 WESTERN PACIFIC

30 MPH ()

103.7° W

17.1 ° N

300 KM WEST OF ACAPULCO/ MEXICO

WNW

L

 
                     
SOURCES>> NOAA/ Hurricane Center NASA/ GOES NOAA usno.navy.mil METEOALARM METEOSAT (EUROPE) EUMETSAT NOAA REAL TIME METEOSAT >>  
                           
                           

HEADLINES

2013

SEPTEMBER- 27

 

       

2013

  VARIOUS SOURCES  

(BBC- 20130927) Mexico's Acapulco hit by heavy rain and fresh floods

Torrential rain has caused fresh floods in the Mexican beach resort Acapulco, less than two weeks after two storms killed 139 people. Authorities evacuated people from high-risk areas and closed schools, after flooding reached more than 1m (3ft). Acapulco was one of the areas worst affected by the bad weather, which left thousands of tourists stranded.A total of 1.2 million people were affected when Tropical Storm Manuel made landfall on 15 September on Mexico's south-western coastline. More than 25,000 tourists had to be airlifted out of Acapulco after the beach resort was cut off....read more...

(BBC- 20130927) Satellite measures Pakistan 'quake island'

<<< The "quake island" that rose from the sea off Pakistan this week is pictured clearly in a new satellite image. It was acquired by the French Pleiades high-resolution Earth-observing system, and has enabled scientists to map the muddy mound's precise dimensions.

 
    ^( MODIS/ NASA- 20130926) EARTHQUAKE BIRTHS NEW ISLAND OFF PAKISTAN
                           
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

54

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

283-303

FLARES >

C

 

 

CH UNN.

NORTH

GROWING

SEP- 24- 2013

SEP- 28

 

 

SOLAR FLUX (SFU)

107.9

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 2.2

 

M

 

 

CH 588

CENTRAL

GROWING

SEP- 24- 2013

SEP- 29

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

02

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

85- 110 nT

under proton influence

X

 

 

           

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

     

2013

   

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

rotated out ( Sep25)

11843

77° - 91° W

03° S

CAO/ BXO

 

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 

faded ( SEP 20)

11844

50°- 64° W

23° N

AXX

 

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (SHORT PERIOD FLUCTUATION) :

 

faded ( SEP 26)

11845

41° - 55 ° W

18 ° S

BXO

         

X-RAY/ SUNSPOTS >

RISING

ERUPTIONS >

ACTIVE

 
 

11846

42° - 56 ° W

18 ° S

HSX/ CSO

          LAST X RAY MINIMUM LAST X-RAY MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

   
faded ( SEP 26)

11847

35° - 49 ° W

10 ° N

BXO

 

 

 

 

 

20130611

20130710

 

 
faded again ( SEP 24)

11848

10° E- 02 ° W

10 ° S

AXX

       

 

 

 

 

11849

61° - 75 ° W

20 ° N

BXO

         

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
 

11850

18° - 32 ° W

08 ° N

DAO/ DSI

 

     

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
 

11851

17° - 03 ° E

18 ° S

AXX

SEP 28

      *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
 

11852

67° - 81 ° W

20 ° S

BXO

 

             
NEWLY EMERGED>

11853

78° - 92 ° W

19 ° N

CRO/ DRO

SEP 28

             

SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

04

 

        INTERPLANETARY. CURRENT STATE: LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:        

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

          PROTON FLUX

NORMAL

SHORT IMPULS 20130925/ 2 UTC

< RISING ON BACK TO NORMAL:

SEP 25/ 04 UTC

 
              ELECTRON FLUX

NORMAL

SHORT IMPULS 20130925/ 2 UTC

< RISING ON DROPPING UNTIL>

SEP 25/ 04 UTC

 

internal remarks:

 

 

       

 

PROTON STORM ENDED DECREASING INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

 

 
         
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep, 30 Sep).

 

 

 
   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

 

 

 

         
        * note: Due to the necessary evaluation of incoming data, NOAA space weather alerts are oftenly BACKDATED!  

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

QUIET

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT (2)

PAST 24 h

REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

UNSETTLED

 

X RAY EVENT (FLARES)

NONE NONE

 

ACTIVE

CME

TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION NONE

NONE

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

R 1

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

NONE

 

MAJOR STORM

G 1

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

 
               

MINOR CME IMPACT

^ The > 10 MeV electron flux is still rather dense, while the energy of the electrons those accumulated after the latest SEP events , has dropped to low levels after Sep 24. The events was likely just the natural course of an ending SEP event, when electrons finally slow down to subcritical levels likely forming neutrons . I can`t say , when the cooling down process of the tectonic plates will be completed and when earthquake activities will also get back to normal levels. Just in case of the recent stronger earthquakes, the forcecast based on the energy of geomagnetic electrons ( as measured by GOES sat) again turned out to be succcessfull. This method will further be used for my experimental earthquake forecast and future cases will approve whether this method is really as reliable as it seems by now. Sep- 27- 2013 (alien- homepage.de) GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -09 nT/ USAF at 1108 NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 03 nT/ at 09: 59UTC  
EFFECTIVE PROTONS

11:01UTC

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS  
new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report.

 

NOAA:      

LATEST SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS

          NOAA ELECTRONS> <NOAA PROTONS  

LATEST GEOEFFECTIVE SEP:

               
short event description> SEP/ associated with 2 CMEs (AR 11817 and 11818).       CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (PROTONS):  

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:  

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS:

 

EFFECTIVE > 10 MeV PROTONS :

20130817/2300 20130819/ 06 UTC 0.7 pfu. 8300 km/ second

rather minor/ weak event

  > 10 MeV PROTONS(4)

+/- 0.1 pfu.

+/- 0.1 pfu.

NORMAL  
    20130820/ 0600 20130822/ 12 UTC 2.0 pfu SLOW

P-flux dropped but resumed again

      CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS:

 
EFFECTIVE > 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS: 20130816/00800 20130910/ 2000 1.005. 000 --  

>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS (1)

>2000 < 9.000 pfu. (-) ( LOW)

>250 < 9.000 pfu. (-) DROPPING!

DROPPING!  
EFFECTIVE > 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS: 20130816/ 0800 20130910/ 2000 10.500 --

>2.0 MeV ELECTRONS(1)

>04 < 11 pfu (VERY LOW!)

>04 < 11 pfu (VERY LOW!)

DROPPING!

 

ABBREVIATIONS/ CLASS >
 

 

NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) <- 5.3 > -6.6

<- 6.6 > -7.7

RISING  

SOLAR STORMS (SAPor SEP ) ARE INTENSIVE EMISSIONS OF HIGH ACCELERATED SOLAR PARTICLES ( PROTON/ ELECTRONS)

  (2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values  
* SAP OR:" SEP" = SOLAR ACCELERATED (OR: ENERGETIC) PARTICLES (PR., EL.)
    (4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu  
                     

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM      

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 349 km/s at 27/1754Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (28 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (29 Sep, 30 Sep).

 

 

 

             
           

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

          (INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS  
     
             

CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL EVENTS

LAST UPDATE

20130924    

 

 

 

 
GEOMAGNETIC STORM   CME IMPACT

APPROACHING CMEs :

NONE SEP (Solar Energetic Particles). > 10 MeV PROTONS > 10 pfu > 2 MeV ELECTRONS DROPPING!  

LATEST TERRESTRIAL EVENTS (last update- SEPTEMBER- 21 - 2013:Solar activity was very since End of August with less sun spots on the visible disc and almost no surface eruption on the entire sun. X ray emission dropped even to A level from September 07- 16. On Sept 17, solar activity then resumed again first with several filament eruptions, newly emerging sun spot and active regions, producing solar flares. AR 11850 rotated in on Sep 20 on a latitude near the solar equator and became the currently most active region. AR 11850 will cross the Central solar meridian appr. on September 25- 26.

 
 
 
 
 
       

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130820/21

EFFECTIVE CMEs/ int. Nrs. >

MINOR SEP AND 2 CMEs Nr. 34/ 13 a,b,

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

CME EFFECTIVITY:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / HOT SPOTS (-) N- AMERICA/ ALASKA LONGITUDES: 30° - 90° W/ 150- 180° W ACCUMULATING SAP events

 

ALERT LEVEL

* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

 
DROPPING ELECTRONS

SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS/ TORNADOES (-)

SOUTH AMERICA/ W

PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< NASCA

IMPACT HEMISPHERE:

 

COOLING TECTONICS ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES TODAY ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3) hh

POLAR HEATING EFF. /GLACIAL MELTDOWNS CENTRAL AMERICA

ATLANTIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< CARRIBEAN >< COCOS

NORTH

 

27. SEPTEMBER 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

EAST & CTR: PACIFIC PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< INDO-AUS

 

 

M 5.5- >7.5 (POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (HIGH)

 
INDUCED CURRENTS (POSSIBLE) SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS : SEVERAL RECENT SAP EVENTS AND CMES HAVE ACCUMULATED A HIGH POTENTIAL OF (HEAT-) ENERGY WITHIN THE EARTH BODY!

 

28. SEPTEMBER 2013

 
RADIO BLACKOUTS (PROTON INFLUENCE) PACIFIC/ EURO- EAST LONGITUDES : 180°- 90° E

 

M 5.5- >7.0 (POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (DECREASING?)

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) EASTERN ATLANTIC

EURASIA >< N- AMERICA>

 

29 . SEPTEMBER 2013

 

ELECTRON STORM AFTER PROTON STORM (-)

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS:

 

M 5.5- 7.0 (POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-2 (PRELIMINARY)

 

SEP EFFECTS:

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION AND STORM (+)

EURASIA

LONGITUDES : 90° E - 00- 30° W *REGIONS> see definition below

 

LATENCIES:

 
TECTONICS ELECTRONS HEATING UP TECTONIC PLATES

VOLCANO/ HOT SPOT ACTIVITY >

DECREASING

 

INFLUENCES:

HIGHTENED ACTIVE ELECTRONS MINOR PROTON IMPACT (CME)  

EARTHQUAKES

TECTONICS COOLING DOWN (+) ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY >>> ( END OF SEP/ INCREASING)

 

EFFECTING AS >

INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS:  
NEXT TIME OUTLOOK :               (TODAY`S EQ FORECAST IS ONLY PRELIMINARY AND MIGHT BE REVISED LATER TODAY)  

ELECTRONS LIKELY TO DROP AGAIN IN THE COMING DAYS

 

abbreviations:

 

(+) means: this activity is INCREASING

(-) means: This activity is DECREASING

 

* SAP/SEP = Solar Accelerated /Energetic PARTICLES (Protons, Electrons)

 
NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!  
     

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

SEPTEMBER

 

DAY:

26

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 

      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERT ISSUED AT:

 

 

 

EPICENTER/ MAP AFFECTED REGION(S)

 

 
  click here for MEDIA report

 

CANCELLED AT:

 

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS >

NOAA TSUNAMI ALERT REPORT:

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.7 - OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO - 2013-09-26 06:46:05 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

14.45 N ; 93.36 W

DEPTH >

 

WAVE/HEIGHT

 

FREQUENCY

 

 

 

                 

note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!

 
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0):

 

NORTHERN EUROPE/ ARCTIC SEA

JULA- 15- 2013

"E"

MAP 02 N-AMERICA >< EURASIA M 5.5 - REYKJANES RIDGE - 2013-09-26 01:18:52 UTC  

WATCHING: EXTRAORDINARY AND NEW EVENTS AND REGIONS:

NUMBER= ALL EVENTS AS LISTED BY EMSC OR USGS

numbered are events > M 2.0 with single events exceeding magnitude M 4.0.

 

PANAMERICA/ AFTERQUAKES CHIAPAS, MEXICO

FREQUENT SINCE 2012

"D"

MAP

03

N & SOUTH AMERICA >< COCOS M 4.5 - OFF COAST OF CHIAPAS, MEXICO - 2013-09-26 07:57:18 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  
 
                       

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 

         
   
   

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
           
NOAA/ ATLANTIC:

NOAA/ PACIFIC

 
ATLANTIC: There are no tropical cyclones in this region              

:

  CATHEGORIES  
:wunderground.com NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION DIRECTION TYPE/ CATH  
                     
                     
PACIFIC There are no tropical cyclones in this region                
:wunderground.com NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION DIRECTION TYPE/ CATH  
  Invest 92E SEP- 25- 2013 WESTERN PACIFIC

30 MPH (+)

100.1° W

16.1 ° N

^50 KM SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO/ MEXICO

WNW

   
Tropical Storm Pabuk SEP- 20- 2013 WESTERN PACIFIC

70 MPH (-)

145.5° E

33.9 ° N

300 KM SOUTHEST OF TOKYO

NE

TS

 
                     
SOURCES>> NOAA/ Hurricane Center NASA/ GOES NOAA usno.navy.mil METEOALARM METEOSAT (EUROPE) EUMETSAT NOAA REAL TIME METEOSAT >>  
                           
                           

HEADLINES

 

 

 

       

2013

  VARIOUS SOURCES  
       
     
                           
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

63

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

287-356

FLARES >

C

 

 

CH 588

CENTRAL

GROWING

SEP- 24- 2013

SEP- 28

 

 

SOLAR FLUX (SFU)

109.9

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 2.1

 

M

 

 

         

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

01

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

80- 110 nT

under proton influence

X

 

 

           

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

     

2013

   

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

rotated out(SEP19)

11840

87° - 101 ° W

12 ° S

AXX

 

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 

rotated out ( Sep24)

11841

77° - 91 ° W

05 ° S

HRX/ AXX

 

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (SHORT PERIOD FLUCTUATION) :

 

rotated out ( Sep25)

11843

77° - 91° W

03° S

CAO/ BXO

 

       

X-RAY/ SUNSPOTS >

RISING

ERUPTIONS >

ACTIVE

 
faded ( SEP 20)

11844

50°- 64° W

23° N

AXX

 

        LAST X RAY MINIMUM LAST X-RAY MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

   
 

11845

41° - 55 ° W

18 ° S

BXO

 

 

 

 

 

20130611

20130710

 

 
 

11846

29° - 43 ° W

18 ° S

HSX/ CSO

       

 

 

 

 

11847

35° - 49 ° W

10 ° N

BXO

         

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
reemerged ( SEP 22)

11848

10° E- 02 ° W

10 ° S

AXX

       

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
 

11849

53° - 67 ° W

20 ° N

EAO/ BXO

        *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
 

11850

03° - 17 ° W

08 ° N

DAO/ DAC

 

             
NEWLY EMERGED>

11851

32° - 18 ° E

18 ° S

AXX/ BXO

SEP 28

             

SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

04

 

        INTERPLANETARY. CURRENT STATE: LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:        

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

          PROTON FLUX

NORMAL

SHORT IMPULS 20130925/ 2 UTC

< RISING ON BACK TO NORMAL:

SEP 25/ 04 UTC

 
              ELECTRON FLUX

NORMAL

SHORT IMPULS 20130925/ 2 UTC

< RISING ON DROPPING UNTIL>

SEP 25/ 04 UTC

 

internal remarks:

 

 

       

 

PROTON STORM ENDED DECREASING INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

 

 
         
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Sep, 28 Sep, 29 Sep).

 

 

 
   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

 

 

 

         
        * note: Due to the necessary evaluation of incoming data, NOAA space weather alerts are oftenly BACKDATED!  

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

QUIET

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT (2)

PAST 24 h

REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

UNSETTLED

 

X RAY EVENT (FLARES)

NONE NONE

 

ACTIVE

CME

TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION NONE

NONE

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

R 1

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

NONE

 

MAJOR STORM

G 1

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

 
               

MINOR CME IMPACT

  GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -09 nT/ USAF at 1108 NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 01 nT/ at 19:23 UTC  
  EFFECTIVE PROTONS

11:01UTC

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS  
  new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report.

 

NOAA:          

LATEST SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS

          NOAA ELECTRONS> <NOAA PROTONS  

LATEST GEOEFFECTIVE SEP:

               
short event description> SEP/ associated with 2 CMEs (AR 11817 and 11818).       CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (PROTONS):  

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:  

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS:

 

EFFECTIVE > 10 MeV PROTONS :

20130817/2300 20130819/ 06 UTC 0.7 pfu. 8300 km/ second

rather minor/ weak event

  > 10 MeV PROTONS(4)

+/- 0.1 pfu.

+/- 0.1 pfu.

NORMAL  
    20130820/ 0600 20130822/ 12 UTC 2.0 pfu SLOW

P-flux dropped but resumed again

      CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS:

 
EFFECTIVE > 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS: 20130816/00800 20130910/ 2000 1.005. 000 --  

>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS (1)

>250 < 9.000 pfu. (-) DROPPING!

>100 < 40.000 pfu. (-) DROPPING!

DROPPING!  
EFFECTIVE > 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS: 20130816/ 0800 20130910/ 2000 10.500 --

>2.0 MeV ELECTRONS(1)

>04 < 11 pfu (VERY LOW!)

>^10 < 1300 pfu (SHARPLY DROPPING!)

DROPPING!

 

ABBREVIATIONS/ CLASS >
 

 

NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) <- 5.3 > -6.6

<- 6.6 > -7.7

RISING  

SOLAR STORMS (SAPor SEP ) ARE INTENSIVE EMISSIONS OF HIGH ACCELERATED SOLAR PARTICLES ( PROTON/ ELECTRONS)

  (2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values  
* SAP OR:" SEP" = SOLAR ACCELERATED (OR: ENERGETIC) PARTICLES (PR., EL.)
    (4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu  
                     

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM      

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 402 km/s at 25/2208Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (27 Sep, 28 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (29 Sep).

 

 

 

             
           

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

          (INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS  
     
             

CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL EVENTS

LAST UPDATE

20130924    

 

 

 

 
GEOMAGNETIC STORM   CME IMPACT

APPROACHING CMEs :

NONE SEP (Solar Energetic Particles). > 10 MeV PROTONS > 10 pfu > 2 MeV ELECTRONS DROPPING!  

LATEST TERRESTRIAL EVENTS (last update- SEPTEMBER- 21 - 2013:Solar activity was very since End of August with less sun spots on the visible disc and almost no surface eruption on the entire sun. X ray emission dropped even to A level from September 07- 16. On Sept 17, solar activity then resumed again first with several filament eruptions, newly emerging sun spot and active regions, producing solar flares. AR 11850 rotated in on Sep 20 on a latitude near the solar equator and became the currently most active region. AR 11850 will cross the Central solar meridian appr. on September 25- 26.

 
 
 
 
 
       

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130820/21

EFFECTIVE CMEs/ int. Nrs. >

MINOR SEP AND 2 CMEs Nr. 34/ 13 a,b,

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

CME EFFECTIVITY:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / HOT SPOTS (-) N- AMERICA/ ALASKA LONGITUDES: 30° - 90° W/ 150- 180° W ACCUMULATING SAP events

 

ALERT LEVEL

* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

 
DROPPING ELECTRONS

SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS/ TORNADOES (-)

SOUTH AMERICA/ W

PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< NASCA

IMPACT HEMISPHERE:

 

DROPPING ELECTRONS ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES TODAY ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3) hh

POLAR HEATING EFF. /GLACIAL MELTDOWNS CENTRAL AMERICA

ATLANTIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< CARRIBEAN >< COCOS

NORTH

 

25. SEPTEMBER 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

EAST & CTR: PACIFIC PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< INDO-AUS

 

 

M 5.5- >7.5 (POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (HIGH)

 
INDUCED CURRENTS (POSSIBLE) SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS : SEVERAL RECENT SAP EVENTS AND CMES HAVE ACCUMULATED A HIGH POTENTIAL OF (HEAT-) ENERGY WITHIN THE EARTH BODY!

 

26. SEPTEMBER 2013

 
RADIO BLACKOUTS (PROTON INFLUENCE) PACIFIC/ EURO- EAST LONGITUDES : 180°- 90° E

 

M 5.5- >8.0? (POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (HIGH)

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) EASTERN ATLANTIC

EURASIA >< N- AMERICA>

 

27 . SEPTEMBER 2013

 

ELECTRON STORM AFTER PROTON STORM (-)

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS:

 

M 5.5- > 7.0 (POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-2 (PRELIMINARY)

 

SEP EFFECTS:

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION AND STORM (+)

EURASIA

LONGITUDES : 90° E - 00- 30° W *REGIONS> see definition below

 

LATENCIES:

 
TECTONICS ELECTRONS HEATING UP TECTONIC PLATES

VOLCANO/ HOT SPOT ACTIVITY >

DECREASING

 

INFLUENCES:

HIGHTENED ACTIVE ELECTRONS MINOR PROTON IMPACT (CME)  

EARTHQUAKES

TECTONICS COOLING DOWN (+) ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY >>> ( END OF SEP/ INCREASING)

 

EFFECTING AS >

INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS:  
NEXT TIME OUTLOOK :               (TODAY`S EQ FORECAST IS ONLY PRELIMINARY AND MIGHT BE REVISED LATER TODAY)  

ELECTRONS LIKELY TO DROP AGAIN IN THE COMING DAYS

 

abbreviations:

 

(+) means: this activity is INCREASING

(-) means: This activity is DECREASING

 

* SAP/SEP = Solar Accelerated /Energetic PARTICLES (Protons, Electrons)

 
NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!  
     

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

SEPTEMBER

 

DAY:

25

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 

      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERT ISSUED AT:

NONE

 

 

EPICENTER/ MAP AFFECTED REGION(S)

NONE

 
  click here for MEDIA report

 

CANCELLED AT:

 

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS >

NOAA TSUNAMI ALERT REPORT:

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 7.0 - NEAR COAST OF SOUTHERN PERU - 2013-09-25 16:42:43 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

15.91 S ; 74.63 W

DEPTH >

40 KM

 

  click here for MEDIA report

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS >

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 6.0 - SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE - 2013-09-25 06:51:23 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

50.03 S ; 113.77 W

DEPTH >

10 KM

 

 

                   

 

          > tropical storm " Pabuk" (NASA)>  
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0):

 

CANADA, ALASKA/ (CASCADIAN SZ)

SOMETIMES

"C"

MAP

01

NORTH-AMERICA ><EXPLORER PLATE M 5.5 - NEAR ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS - 2013-09-25 13:58:15 UTC  

PACIFIC/MAINLY WEST/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC.

FREQUENT

"B"

MAP

01

PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.0 - BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G. - 2013-09-25 11:23:42 UTC  

REGION CHILE / ARGENTINE ( SA/ NASCA PLATE)

FREQUENT/ OCT- 2012

"D"

MAP

11

SOUTH AMERICA >< NASZA M 5.1 - ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE - 2013-09-25 13:14:41 UTC  

WATCHING: EXTRAORDINARY AND NEW EVENTS AND REGIONS:

NUMBER= ALL EVENTS AS LISTED BY EMSC OR USGS

numbered are events > M 2.0 with single events exceeding magnitude M 4.0.

 

CANARY AND AZORES ISLANDS REGION

NOVEMBER - 14-2012

"E"

MAP

01

N-AMERICA >< AFRICA >< EURASIA M 4.0 - AZORES ISLANDS, PORTUGAL - 2013-09-25 07:40:12 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  
 
                       

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 

volcano-discovery/gadget

note: this report does NOT necessarely represent all currently global active volcanoes!

     

20130826

report by:

GVP  

 

18. - 24. SEPTEMBER 2013

NEW ACTIVITIES/ UPDATES: Lokon-Empung (Sulawesi) - Sinabung (Indonesia )- Sakura-jima (Kyushu)- Santa María (Guatemala)

ONGOING ACTIVITIES/ UPDATES: Karymsky (Eastern Kamchatka/ Russia)- Kilauea (Hawaii/ USA)- Kliuchevskoi (Central Kamchatka / Russia)- Bagana (Bougainville)- Dukono (Halmahera)- Shiveluch (Central Kamchatka/ Russia)- Reventador (Ecuador)- Tara, Batu (Komba Island / Indonesia)- Veniaminof (United States)

This page is updated on Wednesdays. Please see the GVP Home Page for news of the latest significant activity.

 
         
   
   

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
           
NOAA/ ATLANTIC:

NOAA/ PACIFIC

 
ATLANTIC: There are no tropical cyclones in this region              

:

  CATHEGORIES  
:wunderground.com NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION DIRECTION TYPE/ CATH  
                W    
                     
PACIFIC There are no tropical cyclones in this region                
:wunderground.com NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION DIRECTION TYPE/ CATH  
  Invest 92E SEP- 25- 2013 WESTERN PACIFIC 15 MPH ()

95.9° W

15.0° N

250 KM WEST OF GUATEMALA CITY

W

   
Tropical Storm Pabuk SEP- 20- 2013 WESTERN PACIFIC

105 MPH (+)

138.6°E

28.5 ° N

500 KM SOUTH OF JAPAN

N

TS (1)

 
                     
SOURCES>> NOAA/ Hurricane Center NASA/ GOES NOAA usno.navy.mil METEOALARM METEOSAT (EUROPE) EUMETSAT NOAA REAL TIME METEOSAT >>  
                           
                           

HEADLINES

 

 

 

       

2013

  VARIOUS SOURCES  

 

 

(usa-today- 20130926) Magnitude-7.0 quake strikes off south Peru coast

LIMA, Peru (AP) — An offshore earthquake with a reported magnitude of 7.0 shook much of Peru on Wednesday but only minor damage and no injuries were reported in the sparsely populated southwestern coastal area near the epicenter....read more...

(accuweather- 20130925) Japan's Close Encounter with Typhoon Pabuk

Typhoon Pabuk should bring a glancing blow to Japan in the next several days as the system tracks across the warm waters of the West Pacific Ocean.Pabuk, which developed into a tropical storm early Saturday morning and a typhoon Monday night, local time, will remain in an environment conducive for some strengthening for the next day or two....read more...

(nyt.- 20130925)Toll in Quake in Pakistan Rises Past 300

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — The death toll from a devastating earthquake in western Pakistan rose to 327 on Wednesday, as soldiers and rescue workers scrambled to reach victims in one of the country’s remotest areas....read more....

   
     
                           
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

61

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

344-436

FLARES >

C

 

 

CH 588

CENTRAL

GROWING

SEP- 24- 2013

SEP- 28

 

 

SOLAR FLUX (SFU)

101.1

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 2.1

 

M

 

 

CH 587.

NORTH

CLOSED

SEP- 15- 2013

SEP- 19

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

04

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

60- 105 nT

under proton influence

X

 

 

           

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

     

2013

   

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

rotated out(SEP19)

11840

87° - 101 ° W

12 ° S

AXX

 

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 

rotated out ( Sep24)

11841

77° - 91 ° W

05 ° S

HRX/ AXX

 

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (SHORT PERIOD FLUCTUATION) :

 

rotating out ( Sep25)

11843

77° - 91° W

03° S

CAO/ BXO

 

       

X-RAY/ SUNSPOTS >

DROPPING

ERUPTIONS >

ACTIVE

 
faded ( SEP 20)

11844

50°- 64° W

23° N

AXX

 

        LAST X RAY MINIMUM LAST X-RAY MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

   
 

11845

27° - 41 ° W

18 ° S

BXO/ CRO

 

 

 

 

 

20130611

20130710

 

 
 

11846

15° - 29 ° W

18 ° S

HSX/ CSO

       

 

 

 

 

11847

21° - 35 ° W

10 ° N

BXO

         

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
reemerged ( SEP 22)

11848

10° E- 02 ° W

10 ° S

AXX

       

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
 

11849

39° - 53 ° W

20 ° N

DAO

        *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
 

11850

11° E - 03 ° W

08 ° N

DAO/ CSO

SEP 25

             
NEWLY EMERGED>

11851

46° - 32 ° E

18 ° S

HRX/ CRO

SEP 28

             

SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

03

 

        INTERPLANETARY. CURRENT STATE: LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:        

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

          PROTON FLUX

NORMAL

SHORT IMPULS 20130925/ 2 UTC

< RISING ON BACK TO NORMAL:

SEP 25/ 04 UTC

 
              ELECTRON FLUX

NORMAL

SHORT IMPULS 20130925/ 2 UTC

< RISING ON DROPPING UNTIL>

SEP 25/ 04 UTC

 

internal remarks:

 

 

       

 

PROTON STORM ENDED DECREASING INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

 

 
         
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 24/2256Z from Region 1846 (S18W18). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep, 28 Sep).

 

 

 
   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

 

 

 

         
        * note: Due to the necessary evaluation of incoming data, NOAA space weather alerts are oftenly BACKDATED!  

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

QUIET

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT (2)

PAST 24 h

REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

UNSETTLED

 

X RAY EVENT (FLARES)

NONE NONE

 

ACTIVE

CME

TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION NONE

NONE

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

R 1

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

NONE

 

MAJOR STORM

G 1

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

 
               

MINOR CME IMPACT

^again, electron flux dropping from a hightened level prooved to be a reliable indicator for the stronger earthquakes those set in on Sep 24- 2013 GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -09 nT/ USAF at 1108 NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 12 nT/ USAF at 1201  
  EFFECTIVE PROTONS

11:01UTC

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS  
  new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report.

 

NOAA:          

LATEST SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS

          NOAA ELECTRONS> <NOAA PROTONS  

LATEST GEOEFFECTIVE SEP:

               
short event description> SEP/ associated with 2 CMEs (AR 11817 and 11818).       CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (PROTONS):  

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:  

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS:

 

EFFECTIVE > 10 MeV PROTONS :

20130817/2300 20130819/ 06 UTC 0.7 pfu. 8300 km/ second

rather minor/ weak event

  > 10 MeV PROTONS(4)

+/- 0.1 pfu.

+/- 0.1 pfu.

NORMAL  
    20130820/ 0600 20130822/ 12 UTC 2.0 pfu SLOW

P-flux dropped but resumed again

      CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS:

 
EFFECTIVE > 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS: 20130816/00800 20130910/ 2000 1.005. 000 --  

>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS (1)

>100 < 40.000 pfu. (-) DROPPING!

>10.000 < 90.000 pfu. (-) DROPPING!

DROPPING!  
EFFECTIVE > 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS: 20130816/ 0800 20130910/ 2000 10.500 --

>2.0 MeV ELECTRONS(1)

>^10 < 1300 pfu (SHARPLY DROPPING!)

>400 < 4000 pfu (SHARPLY DROPPING!)

DROPPING!

 

ABBREVIATIONS/ CLASS >
 

 

NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) <- 6.6 > -7.7

<- 5.9 > -7.2

EQUAL  

SOLAR STORMS (SAPor SEP ) ARE INTENSIVE EMISSIONS OF HIGH ACCELERATED SOLAR PARTICLES ( PROTON/ ELECTRONS)

  (2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values  
* SAP OR:" SEP" = SOLAR ACCELERATED (OR: ENERGETIC) PARTICLES (PR., EL.)
    (4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu  
                     

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM      

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 482 km/s at 25/0544Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep, 28 Sep).

 

 

 

             
           

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

          (INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS  
     
             

CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL EVENTS

LAST UPDATE

20130924    

 

 

 

 
GEOMAGNETIC STORM   CME IMPACT

APPROACHING CMEs :

NONE SEP (Solar Energetic Particles). > 10 MeV PROTONS > 10 pfu > 2 MeV ELECTRONS DROPPING!  

LATEST TERRESTRIAL EVENTS (last update- SEPTEMBER- 21 - 2013:Solar activity was very since End of August with less sun spots on the visible disc and almost no surface eruption on the entire sun. X ray emission dropped even to A level from September 07- 16. On Sept 17, solar activity then resumed again first with several filament eruptions, newly emerging sun spot and active regions, producing solar flares. AR 11850 rotated in on Sep 20 on a latitude near the solar equator and became the currently most active region. AR 11850 will cross the Central solar meridian appr. on September 25- 26.

 
 
 
 
 
       

 

 

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130820/21

EFFECTIVE CMEs/ int. Nrs. >

MINOR SEP AND 2 CMEs Nr. 34/ 13 a,b,

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

PRIMARY REGIONS IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

CME EFFECTIVITY:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / HOT SPOTS (-) N- AMERICA/ ALASKA LONGITUDES: 30° - 90° W/ 150- 180° W ACCUMULATING SAP events

 

ALERT LEVEL

* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

 
DROPPING ELECTRONS

SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS/ TORNADOES (-)

SOUTH AMERICA/ W

PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< NASCA

IMPACT HEMISPHERE:

 

DROPPING ELECTRONS ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES TODAY ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3) hh

POLAR HEATING EFF. /GLACIAL MELTDOWNS CENTRAL AMERICA

ATLANTIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< CARRIBEAN >< COCOS

NORTH

 

25. SEPTEMBER 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

EAST & CTR: PACIFIC PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< INDO-AUS

 

 

M 5.5- >7.5 (POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (HIGH)

 
INDUCED CURRENTS (POSSIBLE) SECONDARY REGIONS : SECONDARY REGIONS : SEVERAL RECENT SAP EVENTS AND CMES HAVE ACCUMULATED A HIGH POTENTIAL OF (HEAT-) ENERGY WITHIN THE EARTH BODY!

 

26. SEPTEMBER 2013

 
RADIO BLACKOUTS (PROTON INFLUENCE) PACIFIC/ EURO- EAST LONGITUDES : 180°- 90° E

 

M 5.5- >8.0? (POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (HIGH)

 

WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) EASTERN ATLANTIC

EURASIA >< N- AMERICA>

 

27 . SEPTEMBER 2013

 

ELECTRON STORM AFTER PROTON STORM (-)

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS:

 

M 5.5- > 7.0 (POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-2 (PRELIMINARY)

 

SEP EFFECTS:

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION AND STORM (+)

EURASIA

LONGITUDES : 90° E - 00- 30° W *REGIONS> see definition below

 

LATENCIES:

 
TECTONICS ELECTRONS HEATING UP TECTONIC PLATES

VOLCANO/ HOT SPOT ACTIVITY >

DECREASING

 

INFLUENCES:

HIGHTENED ACTIVE ELECTRONS MINOR PROTON IMPACT (CME)  

EARTHQUAKES

TECTONICS COOLING DOWN (+) ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY >>> ( END OF SEP/ INCREASING)

 

EFFECTING AS >

INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS:  
NEXT TIME OUTLOOK :               (TODAY`S EQ FORECAST IS ONLY PRELIMINARY AND MIGHT BE REVISED LATER TODAY)  

ELECTRONS LIKELY TO DROP AGAIN IN THE COMING DAYS

 

abbreviations:

 

(+) means: this activity is INCREASING

(-) means: This activity is DECREASING

 

* SAP/SEP = Solar Accelerated /Energetic PARTICLES (Protons, Electrons)

 
NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!  
     

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013

MONTH:

SEPTEMBER

 

DAY:

24

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 

      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERT ISSUED AT:

 

 

 

EPICENTER/ MAP AFFECTED REGION(S)

 

 
  click here for MEDIA report

 

CANCELLED AT:

 

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS >

NOAA TSUNAMI ALERT REPORT:

 

EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 7.7 - PAKISTAN - 2013-09-24 11:29:49 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

27.07 N ; 65.56 E

DEPTH >

20 km

WAVE/HEIGHT

 

FREQUENCY

 

 

 

                 

note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!

 
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0):

 

CONTINENTAL EURASIA/ AFTERQUAKES- PAKISTAN

SELDOM

"E"/"F

MAP

15 ( 6x > M 5)

EURASIA>< AFRICA >> ARABIA M 5.9 - PAKISTAN - 2013-09-24 11:36:31 UTC  

PACIFIC/MAINLY WEST/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC.

FREQUENT

"B"

MAP

01

PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.5 - SOUTH OF TONGA - 2013-09-24 23:38:22 UTC  

AFRICA- MAINLY RED SEA REGION & INDIAN OCEAN

SELDOM

"F"

MAP

01

EURASIA>< AFRICA>< N-AMERICA ><ARABIA >< INDO-AUS >< ANTARCTICA M 5.5 - CARLSBERG RIDGE - 2013-09-24 07:22:54 UTC  

WATCHING: EXTRAORDINARY AND NEW EVENTS AND REGIONS:

NUMBER= ALL EVENTS AS LISTED BY EMSC OR USGS

numbered are events > M 2.0 with single events exceeding magnitude M 4.0.

 

CA/ SAN ANDREAS FAULT & CASCADIAN SZ (USGS)

AUGUST- 28- 2012

"C"

MAP

 

N-AMERICA/ SAN ANDREAS FAULT >< JUAN DE FUCA>< PACIFIC M 3.5 - NORTHERN CALIFORNIA - 2013-09-24 21:36:34 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  
 
                       

maps >

 

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 

         
   
   

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
           
NOAA/ ATLANTIC:

NOAA/ PACIFIC

 
ATLANTIC: There are no tropical cyclones in this region              

:

  CATHEGORIES  
:wunderground.com NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION DIRECTION TYPE/ CATH  
                     
                     
PACIFIC There are no tropical cyclones in this region                
:wunderground.com NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION DIRECTION TYPE/ CATH  
Tropical Storm Pabuk SEP- 20- 2013 WESTERN PACIFIC

75 MPH (+)

139.6° E

25.9 ° N

500 KM SOUTH OF RYUKYU ISL. JAPAN

NW

TS (1)

 
                     
SOURCES>> NOAA/ Hurricane Center NASA/ GOES NOAA usno.navy.mil METEOALARM METEOSAT (EUROPE) EUMETSAT NOAA REAL TIME METEOSAT >>  
                           
                           
                           

HEADLINES

 

 

 

       

2013

  VARIOUS SOURCES  
 

/CNN.com/ 20130925) Pakistan quake kills more than 200 people; island appears

Islamabad, Pakistan (CNN) -- An earthquake in Pakistan, powerful enough to prompt the appearance of a small island off the coast, has killed more than 200 people, Pakistani officials said. The 7.7-magnitude quake struck in a remote area of southwestern Pakistan on Tuesday, but it had severe consequences. At least 208 people were killed in the district of Awaran and the city of Turbut in Balochistan province, Asad Gilani, the provincial home secretary, said Wednesday. In addition to the fatalities, around 350 people have been injured, he said, and more people are still trapped in rubble....read more...

   
    (youtube)Island emerges near Gwadar coast after earthquake (24 Sep 2013
                           
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

56

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

316-427

FLARES >

C

 

 

CH 587.

NORTH

DECAYING

SEP- 15- 2013

SEP- 19

 

 

SOLAR FLUX (SFU)

110.2

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 1.9

 

M

 

 

           

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

12

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

20- 130 nT

CME arrival

X

 

 

           

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

     

2013

   

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 

CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

rotated out(SEP19)

11840

87° - 101 ° W

12 ° S

AXX

 

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 

rotating out ( Sep24)

11841

77° - 91 ° W

05 ° S

HRX/ AXX

 

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (SHORT PERIOD FLUCTUATION) :

 

 

11843

63° - 77° W

03° S

CAO/ BXO

 

       

X-RAY/ SUNSPOTS >

RISING

ERUPTIONS >

ACTIVE

 
faded ( SEP 20)

11844

50°- 64° W

23° N

AXX

 

        LAST X RAY MINIMUM LAST X-RAY MAXIMUM (appr.)

 

   
 

11845

02° - 16 ° W

18 ° S

BXO/ CRO

SEP 23

 

 

 

 

20130611

20130710

 

 
 

11846

10° E - 04 ° W

18 ° S

HSX/ CSO

SEP 24

     

 

 

 

 

11847

17° - 03 ° E

10 ° N

BXO

SEP 23

       

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region  
reemerged ( SEP 22)

11848

10° E- 02 ° W

10 ° S

AXX

SEP 22

     

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
 

11849

11° - 25 ° W

20 ° N

DAO

SEP 22

      *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
 

11850

38° - 24 ° E

08 ° N

DAO/ CSO

SEP 26

             
NEWLY EMERGED>

11851

69° - 55 ° E

18 ° S

HRX/ CRO

SEP 28

             

SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

03

 

        INTERPLANETARY. CURRENT STATE: LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:        

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

          PROTON FLUX

NORMAL

SEP 18/ 1800 AFTER BACKSIDE LDE

< RISING ON BACK TO NORMAL:

SEP 19/ 9 UTC

 
              ELECTRON FLUX

NORMAL

HIGHER AFTER CME/ 20130830/ 02 UTC < RISING ON DROPPING UNTIL>

AUG 06

 

internal remarks:

 

 

       

 

PROTON STORM ENDED DECREASING INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

 

 
         
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

 

 

    2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days one, two, and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27 Sep).

 

 

         
 
   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

 

 

 

 

RELATED TERRESTRIAL CME TRACKING REPORT                

ONGOING CME ARRIVAL

CME/ Nr.:

39/13

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

SEASONAL MAIN IMPACT LATITUDES (JUNE):

EQUATOR

STRENGTH: 1-2  

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENT

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN/ UTC GEOMAGNETIC HZ COMPONENT max. - 7 nT MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  

20130923/ 21 UTC

11850

appr. 70° E

appr. 30° N

filament eruption 20130921/22 LDE/ MULTIPLE 21 UTC 130 nT   12- 20 UTC 13- 17 UTC IMPACT POLARITY : PROTONS EASTERN ATLANTIC S- AMERICA  
REMARKS:      

00- 120° W

15- 75° W E internal (relatiuve CME mass value WESTERN EUROPE CENTR AMERICA  
MULTIPLE CME EVENTS ( CLUSTERS) AND LATENCY EFFECTS:
       
FURTHER CMEs/ APPROACHING:
00

 

 
         
         
        * note: Due to the necessary evaluation of incoming data, NOAA space weather alerts are oftenly BACKDATED!  

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

QUIET

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT (2)

PAST 24 h

REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

UNSETTLED

 

X RAY EVENT (FLARES)

NONE NONE

 

ACTIVE

CME

TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION NONE

NONE

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

R 1

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

NONE

 

MAJOR STORM

G 1

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

k- index expected

NONE

 
               

MINOR CME IMPACT

  GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -04 nT/ USAF/ 1643 NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 07 nT/ USAF- 10:28  
  EFFECTIVE PROTONS

11:01UTC

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS  
  new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report.

 

NOAA:          

LATEST SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS

          NOAA ELECTRONS> <NOAA PROTONS  

LATEST GEOEFFECTIVE SEP:

               
short event description> SEP/ associated with 2 CMEs (AR 11817 and 11818).       CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (PROTONS):  

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:  

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS:

 

EFFECTIVE > 10 MeV PROTONS :

20130817/2300 20130819/ 06 UTC 0.7 pfu. 8300 km/ second

rather minor/ weak event

  > 10 MeV PROTONS(4)

+/- 0.1 pfu.

+/- 0.1 pfu.

NORMAL  
    20130820/ 0600 20130822/ 12 UTC 2.0 pfu SLOW

P-flux dropped but resumed again

      CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  

PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

STATUS:

 
EFFECTIVE > 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS: 20130816/00800 20130910/ 2000 1.005. 000 --  

>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS (1)

>10.000 < 90.000 pfu. (-) DROPPING!

>20.000 < 90.000 pfu. (-)

DROPPING!  
EFFECTIVE > 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS: 20130816/ 0800 20130910/ 2000 10.500 --

>2.0 MeV ELECTRONS(1)

>400 < 4000 pfu (SHARPLY DROPPING!)

>220 < 5000 pfu (+)

DROPPING!

 

ABBREVIATIONS/ CLASS >
 

 

NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) <- 5.9 > -7.2

<- 5.9 > -7.1

EQUAL  

SOLAR STORMS (SAPor SEP ) ARE INTENSIVE EMISSIONS OF HIGH ACCELERATED SOLAR PARTICLES ( PROTON/ ELECTRONS)

  (2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values  
* SAP OR:" SEP" = SOLAR ACCELERATED (OR: ENERGETIC) PARTICLES (PR., EL.)
    (4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu  
                     

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

       

 

PROTON STORM      

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 455 km/s at 24/1954Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 24/1201Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 24/1108Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 838 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27 Sep).

 

 

 

             
           

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

          (INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS