-----------------------

 

note: with elder machines the page will need some time to load!

alien- homepage.de- Earth quake statistics- -SUN SPOT ACTIVITY- 11- years solar cycle- last update:FEBRUARY 15- 2014- -07:00 UTC copyright: reserved

background image: Aurora Borealis /COMMONS / wikipedia
open source earthquake forecast project created and provided by: alien-homepage.de-

note: On November 01 2013 I introduced a new format of this page , which will make it easier to load and watch for people with low resolution monitors-

According to NASA, this 24th. 11 year sun spot cycle has probably a " twin peak"- the second in 2015. This projekt therefore will be prolongued.
 
2012/ 13 - MAXIMUM OF 11- YEAR SOLAR CYCLE
SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG

ARCHIVE FEBRUARY - 2014

NASA STEREO BEACON

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SOHO REALTIME current view on the Sun
SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG/ ARCHIVES:
2014 > FEB                  
2013 >

DEC
2012 >

2011 >
2010 >
NOTE: I WILL INTRODUCE A NEW ARCHIVE SYSTEM IN 2012. CLICK ON THE BUTTON (right) FOR THE NEW ARCHIVE DIRECTORY! >

Note: Due to the high data amount in these monthly archives, I am currently trying to improve this by putting the single archives into collapsible panels.

Also I will split the monthly archive into 4 weekly ones. click on the following tabs to open the collapsible panels. You can report to my blog, if you should still experience problems when loading this page.

click here to open panel with graphics, volcano maps , earthquake statistic- FEBRUARY 2014
   
ALL KNOWN VOLCANOES WORLDWIDE, WEEKLY ACTIVITY UPDATES, WEBCAMS, and much more on my "REGIONAL VOLCANO " MAPS:
INTERNAL MAPS: click on the images or links below to get to my large regional maps, where you find all volcanoes around the world with descriptions , webcams and much more such as ancients sites! . Weekly regular activity updates, special earthquakes events with many functions

world volcano map 1.0

world volcano map version 2.0

Europe and Western Asia Africa and Arabic peninsula Central America and Mexico South America- Northern part South America- Southern part Central America and Mexico Northern America Kamchatka peninsula Japan region Indonesia and Philippines Australia and Southern Pacific

 

SPACECRAFTS:
SoHO
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
SDO /AIA
Solar Dynamics Observatory
STEREO
Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory
GOES
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites

ACE

 
 
 
 
 
 
Advanced Composition Explorer

^^ internal Earthquake statistics- with Sun activity curves : green = SUNSPOT NUMBER, Pink= SOLAR FLUX, blue= PLANETARY A INDEX- right image: planetary constellations in March 2013

click here to see some of the paradox observations made during that solar cycle first possibly by observatory sopacecrafts: : CORONAL HOLES THOSE REAPPEAR DURING SEVERAL SOLAR ROTATION PERIODS ON THE SAME HELIOGRAPHIC POSITION

 

VIDEOS/ REPORTS, SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL EVENTS- FEBRUARY 2014:

VIDEOS/ REPORTS OF THE WEEK

   
 

 

 

   
 

 

 

 
MAJOR EARTH DIRECTED CMEs :
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       

 

 

 

click here to open and close collapsible panel with the archived "SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG" FEBRUARY 22- 28- 2014
LATEST:
 

 

 

 

 

 

2014

MONTH:

FEBRUARY

DAY:

28

 

       

 

 

     

HEADLINES

2014

 

 

         
                 
 
 
^(MODIS/ 20140301) March 1, 2014 - Eastern Alaska and western Yukon Territory ^(MODIS/ 20140228) February 28, 2014 - Enderby Land, Antarctica (MODIS/ 20140227) February 27, 2014 - Fires in Florida  
         

 

 

     
ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC      

 

 

EPICENTER/ MAP    
HIGHEST MEASURED GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE TODAY:
GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0
DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>
   

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME
M 5.1 - SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE - 2014-02-28 02:48:09 UTC
LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >
15.91 S ; 13.08 W
DEPTH >
10 km    

 

             

RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

NONE ( DEFAULT) REAL TIME ALERTS>
 
   
EARTHQUAKE REGIONS/ FROM 180° E ON WESTWARDS

TECTONICS:

FREQUENCY/ SINCE

REGION*

EPICENTER:

NUMBER

EVENT ( link to ESMC)  
EASTERN PACIFIC/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC. PAC. >< INDO- AUS FREQUENT

"B"

EPICENTER   M 5.1 - KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION - 2014-02-28 19:41:13 UTC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ CARLSBERG RIDGE/ AFRICA AND ITS TECTONIC BOUNDARIES

EUR >< AFR>< AMER >< ANTAR.

20140226

"E"

EPICENTER 01 M 5.0 - NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION - 2014-02-28 05:50:37 UTC  
        EPICENTER 01 M 5.0 - SOUTH OF AFRICA - 2014-02-28 15:30:49 UTC  
            for updates on the CANARY ISLANDS; visit my google blogspot Canary" hotspot5  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report  
     
     

 

 

               
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL DATA AND EVENTS
solar data by: solen.info NASA/  
latest data (external sources):
SUN OBSERVERS:
OTHERS:
 
                       
         

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

note: solar and terrestrial data are always yesterrday`s values!

20140228

ACTIVE REGIONS AND CORONAL HOLES AT 23:45 UTC (solen.info)  

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

279 (^)

 

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

334-450

FLARES >

C

14

 

SOLAR FLUX (sfu.)

170.6

 

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 9.8

 

M

o1  

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

12

 

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

0- 120 nT

under proton and CME influence

X

   
                 
Today`s RSGA/ USAF - report on solar activity > IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 28/0048Z from Region 1991 (S25E38). There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar, 03 Mar).  
         

 

 

     

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS INVOLVED IN MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITIES, CMEs OR SEPS ( other active regions are not posted)

EARTH DIRECTED CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

   

STATUS :

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

       

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

 

(SUNSPOTS AFTER 24 UTC)

LONGITUDE next 24 h.

LATITUDE

CLASS/ CONF.*

MERIDIAN

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

IMPACT SIZE:

 
  11991 26°- 12° E 24° S DKO/ EKI MARCH 03        
 
  11990 38°- 24° E 08° N DKC MARCH 02        
 
solen/info/ active regions>
           

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

                 
           
 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 
NUMBER POSITION*: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING MAG &remarks  
CH 605 TRANSEQU. FADED 20140221 2014024 25    
             
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

LOW

SOURCE:

decaying CH 605

 
ABBREVIATIONS>
NORTH/ SOUTH POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP/ SP CH- EXT)
UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH
RECURR.= RECURRENT
T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL
 
           
NASA/ D-RAP-REAL TIME global (heat) impact of solar protons and x-rays ^  

 

 

           
 
INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX:
       
 
 
                     

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT : LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:    
PROTON FLUX HIG/ DECREASING

increase after X 4 flare on 20140225/ 0:49 UTC

ELECTRON FLUX HIGH/ DECREASING

increase after X 4 flare on 20140225/ 0:49 UTC

   
    interplanetary proton flux increased further on 20140228/     interplanatary electron flux increased further on 20140228    
BEGIN/ END: 20140201- 10

 

 

BEGIN/ END:    

 

 

   
               

 

 

               
ACTIVE SEP EVENTS:
 

 

         

 
SEP ( SOLAR ENERGETIC PROTONS: PROTON IMPACT begin / duration: ELECTRON ACCUMULATION begin / duration: PHASE I (PROTONS)

PHASE II / ELECTRONS

PHASE III
 

ACTIVE SEPs:

SEP/status

> 10 MeV PROTONS > 100 pfu > 2 MeV ELECTRONS (+) > 1000 pfu currently decreasing (CME influence?)  
  latestSEP: 20140225/ 1:29 UTC ongoing none yet none yet a major SEP was observed aalong with the X4.9/2B at 0.49 UTC. ÜPrptpn flux increased further on February 28  
    20140218- 20 / 06 UTC 20140221/ 06 UTC 20140220/ 18 UTC INTERFERED 3 minor SEP occured on 20140218- 20, while previous major SEP is still active  
    20140107/ 6:00 UTC/ 20140107/ 20140114 (> 1000.pfu!) INTERFERED BY SUCCEEDING SEP       ^GOES integral ELECTRON FLUX- past 3 days  
^remark: orange background means: effect is latent or pending
 

20140228: Integral Proton flux increased further on February 28 and reached 100 pfu early in the morning. I have not reviewed the solar events yet. but protons storms/ eruptions are what I call " the invisible eruption"

2014022-. AR 11990 rotated in on the eastern limb and is very active. On 20140225, AR 11990 produced a LDE flare with a significant and fast CME, that peaked with an X4.9/2B event at 0:49. The event however was associated to a typical wide angled SEP Proton emission, that became obvious at 1:25 UTC ( image 1) Its unclear weather parts of this CME might reach the Earth. . As usual, the major SEP event triggererd numerous secondary minor eruptions in its neighborhood, those formed at all a fully halo CME on SoHO. First protons arrrived two hours later after the X 4.0 event shortkly after 03 UTC and would have had had therfore a speed of appr. 20.661 km/ second. CME and SEPs dn`t occure simultanously as SEPs also don`t cause X ray bursts.Thus, the appearance of the SEP on the solar surface at 1:25 might rather be the begin of the proton emission. Ifs this is correct Protons would have a reached a speed of 27.000 km/ sec

 
             

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE IMPACTS AND SPACE WEATHER ALERTS ( NOAA):

     
 
INTEGRAL PARTICLE FLUX:   < NOAA ALERTS >

GEOMAGNETIC STORMS AND RADIATION ALERTS ( NOAA):

 
PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

TODAY:(2)

THIS DAY (2)

PAST 24 h

SOLAR ALERTS/ INFLUENCES

 

> 10 MeV PROTON FLUX

> 23 < 90 pfu.

> 20 < 60 pfu.

>10 < 100 pfu

NONE

NONE

X RAY > M 5(FLARE ACTIVITY)

 
> 100 MeV PROTON FLUX back to normal     NONE NONE TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION  
PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

TODAY:(2)

NONE

NONE

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

 

>0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>09 <6.000 pfu (-) >15 <10.200 pfu (+) > 10.000 pfu (-)

NONE

G1 (predicted)

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

 

>2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>20 < 200 (-) >40 < 250 (-) < 1.000 pfu.  
x ray alerts are peaks in solar x ray emissions those occure during flare activities )
 
NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA

NO CURRENT DATA

UNKNOWN    
TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS are typical indicators for Coronal Mass Ejections ( CME)
 
(2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values  

10 cm RADIO BURSTS are typical indicators for STRONGER ERUPTIONS& Coronal Mass ejections

 
(4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu   the hp index shows how far the geomagnetic electron flux is disturbed by solar influences  

 

 

       

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

                 

STATUS:

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment /

ACE Real time plot ( > 10 MeV Protons):    

QUIET

GOES (= Geostationary operative environmental satellites) are at geostationary orbit and measure influences / impacts on the geomagnetic field
 

UNSETTLED

 
ACTIVE  
MINOR STORM  

MAJOR STORM

 
HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS
ACE ( Advanced Composition Explorer) is on and L 1 orbit at the edge between solar and geomagnetic field and measures the intensity and composition of interplanetary solar winds.
 
MAJOR CME arrival  
 
 
* see also report below!
 
USAF report on geophysical activity for previous day:>>                  
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 543 km/s at 28/0650Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 27/2242Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 27/2128Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 103 pfu at 28/0845Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 261 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Mar) and quiet levels on days two and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (01 Mar), are likely to cross threshold on day two (02 Mar) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (03 Mar).
     
                       
                     
GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -14 nT (USAF) NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 16 nT/(USAF) The Bz component is the value, the geomagnetic field density fluctuates /shifts in North/ South direction such as during CME impacts  
EFFECTIVE PROTONS NO DATA

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

           
new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report and report that represents the highest N/ S amplitude of that day    
                       
         

 

 

 

 

 

2014

MONTH:

FEBRUARY

DAY:

27

 

       

 

 

     

HEADLINES

2014

 

 

         
                 

(Internal report by alien-homepage.de)

INCREASING EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITY FROM THE CANARY ISLAND HOT SPOT, following the ongoing proton storm:

The situation could indeed become serious now: Two new  and likely magmatic quakes occured on February 27- 2014- , but  not below  El Hierro but again on resp near the aneighbored islands: IGN claimed,  the depth of both quakes could not be evaluated yet. That is rather suspicious to be part of the desinformation strategy , as it would be  the first time , they can`t  give any informations about the depth of an earthquakes there. I suppose at least the one near Teide was  rather shallow, ( what might be an serious  indicator,  that a surface eruption on Mt Teide  might be imminent!!) Might be, that the Spanish geologists just can`t believe it : I will follow the informations and keep you updated!

 

(volcano-discovery/ 20140227) Volcanoes Today, 27 Feb 2014: Popocatépetl, Kilauea

Kilauea (Hawai'i): Last night a swarm of very deep earthquakes occurred in the area of Punalu`u on the SW flank of Kilauea in the Ka`u district of the Big Island!

Popocatépetl (Central Mexico): The volcano's activity increased yesterday. CENAPRED counted no less than 544 small to moderate emissions during the 24 hours between 25-26 Feb. An overflight with the support of the Navy yesterday afternoon showed that the most recent lava dome (number 48) had been destroyed by this activity. At its place, a new funnel shaped pit, approx 80 m deep was seen.

read also: Swarm of deep earthquakes recorded at Kilauea volcano, Hawaii ( by the watchers)

During February 19 - 25 HVO reported that the circulating lava lake occasionally rose and fell in the deep pit within Kilauea's Halema'uma'u Crater. The plume from the vent continued to deposit variable amounts of ash, spatter, and Pele's hair onto nearby areas. At Pu'u 'O'o Crater, glow emanated from spatter cones on the N and S portions of the crater floor, and a lava pond was active in the NE spatter cone.

Moderate and damaging M 4.6 earthquake struck near Super Pit goldmine, near Kalgoorlie, Western Australia

Moderate but slightly damaging earthquake, registered as M 4.6 (GA Australia) struck near Kalgoorlie-Boulder in Western Australia on February 26, 2014. EMSC recorded M4.5 while USGS has no data. The epicenter was located 30 km west of Kalgoorlie-Boulder, Western Australia at coordinates 30.71 S ; 121.18 E.

 
Kilauea/ Hawaii- webcam 3 ^ webcam x webcam 2     ^Popocatepetl webcam / Mexico  
         

 

 

     
ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC      

 

 

EPICENTER/ MAP    
HIGHEST MEASURED GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE TODAY:
GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0
DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>
   

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME
M 5.4 - DRAKE PASSAGE - 2014-02-27 05:10:58 UTC
LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >
59.46 S ; 59.72 W
DEPTH >
10 km    

 

             

RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

NONE ( DEFAULT) REAL TIME ALERTS>
 
EARTHQUAKE REGIONS/ FROM 180° E ON WESTWARDS

TECTONICS:

FREQUENCY/ SINCE

REGION*

EPICENTER:

NUMBER

EVENT ( link to ESMC)  
            for updates on the CANARY ISLANDS; visit my google blogspot Canary" hotspot5  
NORTHERN ATLANTIC/ ARCTIC SEA N & S -AM. ><EURASIA volcanic?

"E"

EPICENTER 01 M 2.4 - GREENLAND SEA - 2014-02-27 05:36:53 UTC  
CENTRAL AND EASTERN USA NORTH-AMERICA><EUR/ ATLANTIC SERIAL SINCE FEB 2014   EPICENTER 01 M 3.1 - PUGET SOUND REGION, WASHINGTON - 2014-02-27 15:48:51 UTC  
        EPICENTER 03 M 3.7 - OKLAHOMA - 2014-02-27 10:14:02 UTC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ CA/ SAN ANDREAS FAULT & YELLOWSTONE SV. N-AM./ SAN ANDREAS FAULT >< J. DE FUCA>< PACIFIC   "C" EPICENTER 03 M 4.0 - OFFSHORE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA - 2014-02-27 18:52:30 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report  
     
         
TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS ( AT 24 UTC)
wunderground.com NO REPORTED TROPICAL STORMS TODAY      
 
         
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
             
NAME/ TRACKING LINK
EMERGED ON:
REGION
WIND SPEED
COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
   
Tropical Depression Three 20140227 WESTERN PACIFIC 35 MPH () 147.9° E 9.8° N
600 KM SOUTH OF NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
NE
TS
   
                       
NOAA/ Hurricane Center NASA/ GOES NOAA usno.navy.mil METEOALARM METEOSAT

 

 
     

 

 

 

 

             
     

 

 

               
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL DATA AND EVENTS
solar data by: solen.info NASA/  
latest data (external sources):
SUN OBSERVERS:
OTHERS:
 
                       
         

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

note: solar and terrestrial data are always yesterrday`s values!

20140226

ACTIVE REGIONS AND CORONAL HOLES AT 23:45 UTC (solen.info)  

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

227

 

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

328-439

FLARES >

C

14

 

SOLAR FLUX (sfu.)

175.7

 

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 9.8

 

M

   

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

18

 

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

75- 110 nT

under proton influence

X

   
                 
Today`s RSGA/ USAF - report on solar activity > IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 27/1230Z from Region 1991 (S25E52). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Feb, 01 Mar, 02 Mar).  
         

 

 

     

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS INVOLVED IN MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITIES, CMEs OR SEPS ( other active regions are not posted)

EARTH DIRECTED CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

   

STATUS :

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

       

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

 

(SUNSPOTS AFTER 24 UTC)

LONGITUDE next 24 h.

LATITUDE

CLASS/ CONF.*

MERIDIAN

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

IMPACT SIZE:

 
  11991 53°- 39° E 24° S DKO/ EKI MARCH 03        
 
  11990 38°- 24° E 08° N DKC MARCH 02        
 
solen/info/ active regions>
           

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

                 
           
 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 
NUMBER POSITION*: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING MAG &remarks  
CH 605 TRANSEQU. DECAYING 20140221 2014024 25    
             
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

LOW

SOURCE:

decaying CH 605

 
ABBREVIATIONS>
NORTH/ SOUTH POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP/ SP CH- EXT)
UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH
RECURR.= RECURRENT
T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL
 
           
NASA/ D-RAP-REAL TIME global (heat) impact of solar protons and x-rays ^  

 

 

           
 
INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX:
       
 
 
                     

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT : LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:    
PROTON FLUX INCREASING

increase after X 4 flare on 20140225/ 0:49 UTC

ELECTRON FLUX ELEVATED

increase after X 4 flare on 20140225/ 0:49 UTC

   
    interplanetary proton flux increased further on 20140228/     interplanatary electron flux increased further on 20140228    
BEGIN/ END: 20140201- 10

 

 

BEGIN/ END:    

 

 

   
               

 

 

               
ACTIVE SEP EVENTS:
 

 

         

 
SEP ( SOLAR ENERGETIC PROTONS: PROTON IMPACT begin / duration: ELECTRON ACCUMULATION begin / duration: PHASE I (PROTONS)

PHASE II / ELECTRONS

PHASE III
 

ACTIVE SEPs:

SEP/status

> 10 MeV PROTONS > 100 pfu > 2 MeV ELECTRONS (+) > 1000 pfu currently decreasing (CME influence?)  
  latestSEP: 20140225/ 1:29 UTC ongoing none yet none yet a major SEP was observed aalong with the X4.9/2B at 0.49 UTC. ÜPrptpn flux increased further on February 28  
    20140218- 20 / 06 UTC 20140221/ 06 UTC 20140220/ 18 UTC INTERFERED 3 minor SEP occured on 20140218- 20, while previous major SEP is still active  
    20140107/ 6:00 UTC/ 20140107/ 20140114 (> 1000.pfu!) INTERFERED BY SUCCEEDING SEP       ^GOES integral ELECTRON FLUX- past 3 days  
^remark: orange background means: effect is latent or pending
 

20140228: Integral Proton flux increased further on February 28 and reached 100 pfu early in the morning. I have not reviewed the solar events yet. but protons storms/ eruptions are what I call " the invisible eruption"

2014022-. AR 11990 rotated in on the eastern limb and is very active. On 20140225, AR 11990 produced a LDE flare with a significant and fast CME, that peaked with an X4.9/2B event at 0:49. The event however was associated to a typical wide angled SEP Proton emission, that became obvious at 1:25 UTC ( image 1) Its unclear weather parts of this CME might reach the Earth. . As usual, the major SEP event triggererd numerous secondary minor eruptions in its neighborhood, those formed at all a fully halo CME on SoHO. First protons arrrived two hours later after the X 4.0 event shortkly after 03 UTC and would have had had therfore a speed of appr. 20.661 km/ second. CME and SEPs dn`t occure simultanously as SEPs also don`t cause X ray bursts.Thus, the appearance of the SEP on the solar surface at 1:25 might rather be the begin of the proton emission. Ifs this is correct Protons would have a reached a speed of 27.000 km/ sec

 
             

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE IMPACTS AND SPACE WEATHER ALERTS ( NOAA):

     
 
INTEGRAL PARTICLE FLUX:   < NOAA ALERTS >

GEOMAGNETIC STORMS AND RADIATION ALERTS ( NOAA):

 
PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

TODAY:(2)

THIS DAY (2)

PAST 24 h

SOLAR ALERTS/ INFLUENCES

 

> 10 MeV PROTON FLUX

> 20 < 60 pfu.

> 0.1 < 23 pfu.

> 100 pfu

NONE

NONE

X RAY > M 5(FLARE ACTIVITY)

 
> 100 MeV PROTON FLUX 0.01- < 0.25 pfu. 0.3- 0.7 pfu. decreasing NONE NONE TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION  
PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

TODAY:(2)

NONE

NONE

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

 

>0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>15 <10.200 pfu (+) >4.000 <10.500 pfu (+) > 10.000 pfu (-)

G1 (predicted)

G1 (predicted)

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

 

>2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>40 < 250 (-) >60 < 350 (-) < 1.000 pfu.  
x ray alerts are peaks in solar x ray emissions those occure during flare activities )
 
NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA

NO CURRENT DATA

UNKNOWN    
TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS are typical indicators for Coronal Mass Ejections ( CME)
 
(2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values  

10 cm RADIO BURSTS are typical indicators for STRONGER ERUPTIONS& Coronal Mass ejections

 
(4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu   the hp index shows how far the geomagnetic electron flux is disturbed by solar influences  

 

 

       

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

                 

STATUS:

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment /

ACE Real time plot ( > 10 MeV Protons):    

QUIET

GOES (= Geostationary operative environmental satellites) are at geostationary orbit and measure influences / impacts on the geomagnetic field
 

UNSETTLED

 
ACTIVE  
MINOR STORM  

MAJOR STORM

 
HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS
ACE ( Advanced Composition Explorer) is on and L 1 orbit at the edge between solar and geomagnetic field and measures the intensity and composition of interplanetary solar winds.
 
MAJOR CME arrival  
 
 
* see also report below!
 
USAF report on geophysical activity for previous day:>>                  
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 519 km/s at 27/1936Z. Total IMF reached 22 nT at 27/1752Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -18 nT at 27/1810Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 58 pfu at 27/1845Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 245 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (28 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (01 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (02 Mar). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (28 Feb), are likely to cross threshold on day two (01 Mar) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (02 Mar).
     
                       
                     
GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -18 nT (USAF) NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 27 nT/(USAF) The Bz component is the value, the geomagnetic field density fluctuates /shifts in North/ South direction such as during CME impacts  
EFFECTIVE PROTONS NO DATA

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

           
new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report and report that represents the highest N/ S amplitude of that day    
     

RELATED TERRESTRIAL CME TRACKING REPORT

       
GOES/ Geomagnetic field :
 

CME ARRIVAL

CME/ Nr.: 04/14

02/14

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

 

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENTS

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

   

20140227

11990 80° E 13° S LDE flare ass to SEP 20140225 0.49- 1:29 UTC 17:01 UTC 180 nT    
REMARKS:        
                 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

 

 

MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS    

> 100 nT

MAIN/ UTC

short impact report:

hz/ impact polarity:

WESTERN ATLANTIC, CENTRAL USA
WESTERN EUROPE,& AFRICA/ EASTERN ATLANTIC
   
27/ 12 - 28/ 02 UTC 16:30- 20:00 UTC neutral- negative SOUTH AMERICA
WESTEREN PACIFIC
   
00° W- 150° E
65° - 120" W

internal (relative) CME mass value:

               
   

 

 

                 
                       
         

 

 

 

 

 

2014

MONTH:

FEBRUARY

DAY:

26

 

       

 

 

     

 

 

               

HEADLINES

2014

 

 

         
                 
 
 
(MODIS/ 20140225) February 25, 2014 - Dust storms off Alaska February 24, 2014 - Dust storm off West Africa (MODIS/ 20140223) February 23, 2014 - Smoke plume from Australian fires  
         

 

 

     
ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC      

 

 

EPICENTER/ MAP    
HIGHEST MEASURED GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE TODAY:
GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0
DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>
   

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME
M 6.1 - FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS - 2014-02-26 21:13:39 UTC
LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >
53.70 N ; 171.86 W
DEPTH >
234 km    

 

             

RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

NONE ( DEFAULT) REAL TIME ALERTS>
 
   
EARTHQUAKE REGIONS/ FROM 180° E ON WESTWARDS

TECTONICS:

FREQUENCY/ SINCE

REGION*

EPICENTER:

NUMBER

EVENT ( link to ESMC)  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ CARLSBERG RIDGE/ AFRICA AND ITS TECTONIC BOUNDARIES

EUR >< AFR>< AMER >< ANTAR.

20140226

"E"

EPICENTER 02 M 4.7 - OWEN FRACTURE ZONE REGION - 2014-02-26 00:53:27 UTC  
            for updates on the CANARY ISLANDS; visit my google blogspot Canary" hotspot5  
NORTHERN ATLANTIC/ ARCTIC SEA N & S -AM. ><EURASIA volcanic?

"E"

EPICENTER 01 M 3.3 - ICELAND REGION - 2014-02-26 08:11:53 UTC  
CANADA, ALASKA/ (CASCADIAN SZ) NORTH-AMERICA ><EXPLORER P. SOMETIMES

"C"

EPICENTER 04 x > M 4.0 M 4.8 - ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS. - 2014-02-26 04:00:45 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report  
     

 

 

   
NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES
       
 
This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >
         
volcano-discovery/gadget

note: this report does NOT necessarely represent all currently global active volcanoes!

   

 

report by:

GVP  

 

Smithsonian Institution / USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report

Activity for the week of 19 February-25 February 2014

The Smithsonian page is updated on Wednesdays. Please see the GVP Home Page for news of the latest significant activity.

 

NEW ACTIVITIES/ UPDATES:

ONGOING ACTIVITIES/ UPDATES:

 
Aira Kyushu (Japan) New
Asosan Kyushu (Japan) New
Kelut Eastern Java (Indonesia) New
Marapi Indonesia New
Popocatépetl Mexico New
Tungurahua Ecuador New
Chirinkotan Kuril Islands (Russia) Ongoing
Chirpoi Kuril Islands (Russia) Ongoing
Cleveland Chuginadak Island (USA) Ongoing
Dukono Halmahera (Indonesia) Ongoing
Etna Sicily (Italy) Ongoing
Karymsky Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) Ongoing
Kilauea Hawaiian Islands (USA) Ongoing
Puyehue-Cordón Caulle Chile Ongoing
Shiveluch Central Kamchatka (Russia) Ongoing
Sinabung Indonesia Ongoing
Suwanosejima Ryukyu Islands (Japan) Ongoing
 
  The Smithsonian was closed due to a United States federal government shutdown on Oct- 02- 2013. On October 21- 2013, Global Volcanism Program staff could return to work : First new vulcanism update was issued on Oct- 23- 2013  
 

 

 

                   
     

 

 

               
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL DATA AND EVENTS
solar data by: solen.info NASA/  
latest data (external sources):
SUN OBSERVERS:
OTHERS:
 
                       
         

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

note: solar and terrestrial data are always yesterrday`s values!

20140226

ACTIVE REGIONS AND CORONAL HOLES AT 23:45 UTC (solen.info)  

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

197

 

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

334-364

FLARES >

C

09

 

SOLAR FLUX (sfu.)

178.2

 

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 9.5

 

M

01  

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

02

 

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

75- 110 nT

under proton influence

X

   
                 
Today`s RSGA/ USAF - report on solar activity > IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 26/1501Z from Region 1982 (S10W49). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Feb, 28 Feb, 01 Mar).  
         

 

 

     

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS INVOLVED IN MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITIES, CMEs OR SEPS ( other active regions are not posted)

EARTH DIRECTED CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

   

STATUS :

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

       

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

 

(SUNSPOTS AFTER 24 UTC)

LONGITUDE next 24 h.

LATITUDE

CLASS/ CONF.*

MERIDIAN

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

IMPACT SIZE:

 
                   
 
  11990 52°- 38° E 08° N CRO/ DRO MARCH 02        
 
solen/info/ active regions>
           

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

                 
           
 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 
NUMBER POSITION*: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING MAG &remarks  
CH 605 TRANSEQU. GROWING 20140221 2014024 25    
CH 604            
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

none (default)

SOURCE:

 

 
ABBREVIATIONS>
NORTH/ SOUTH POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP/ SP CH- EXT)
UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH
RECURR.= RECURRENT
T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL
 
           
NASA/ D-RAP-REAL TIME global (heat) impact of solar protons and x-rays ^  

 

 

           
 
INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX:
       
 
 
                     

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT : LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:    
PROTON FLUX INCREASING

increase after X 4 flare on 20140225/ 0:49 UTC

ELECTRON FLUX ELEVATED

increase after X 4 flare on 20140225/ 0:49 UTC

   
BEGIN/ END: 20140201- 10

 

 

BEGIN/ END:    

 

 

   
               

 

 

               
ACTIVE SEP EVENTS:
 

 

         

 
SEP ( SOLAR ENERGETIC PROTONS: PROTON IMPACT begin / duration: ELECTRON ACCUMULATION begin / duration: PHASE I (PROTONS)

PHASE II / ELECTRONS

PHASE III
 

ACTIVE SEPs:

SEP/status

> 10 MeV PROTONS > 0.1 < 20 pfu > 2 MeV ELECTRONS (+) > 1000 pfu currently decreasing (CME influence?)  
  latestSEP: 20140225/ 1:29 UTC ongoing     a major SEP was observed aalong with the X4.9/2B at 0.49 UTC  
    20140218- 20 / 06 UTC 20140221/ 06 UTC 20140220/ 18 UTC INTERFERED 3 minor SEP occured on 20140218- 20, while previous major SEP is still active  
    20140107/ 6:00 UTC/ 20140107/ 20140114 (> 1000.pfu!) INTERFERED BY SUCCEEDING SEP       ^GOES integral ELECTRON FLUX- past 3 days  
^remark: orange background means: effect is latent or pending
 

2014022-. AR 11990 rotated in on the eastern limb and is very active. On 20140225, AR 11990 produced a LDE flare with a significant and fast CME, that peaked with an X4.9/2B event at 0:49. The event however was associated to a typical wide angled SEP Proton emission, that became obvious at 1:25 UTC ( image 1) Its unclear weather parts of this CME might reach the Earth. . As usual, the major SEP event triggererd numerous secondary minor eruptions in its neighborhood, those formed at all a fully halo CME on SoHO. First protons arrrived two hours later after the X 4.0 event shortkly after 03 UTC and would have had had therfore a speed of appr. 20.661 km/ second. CME and SEPs dn`t occure simultanously as SEPs also don`t cause X ray bursts.Thus, the appearance of the SEP on the solar surface at 1:25 might rather be the begin of the proton emission. Ifs this is correct Protons would have a reached a speed of 27.000 km/ sec

 
             

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE IMPACTS AND SPACE WEATHER ALERTS ( NOAA):

     
 
INTEGRAL PARTICLE FLUX:   < NOAA ALERTS >

GEOMAGNETIC STORMS AND RADIATION ALERTS ( NOAA):

 
PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

TODAY:(2)

THIS DAY (2)

PAST 24 h

SOLAR ALERTS/ INFLUENCES

 

> 10 MeV PROTON FLUX

> 0.1 < 23 pfu.

> 0.1 < 23 pfu.

> 0.1 < 30 pfu.

NONE

> X 1

X RAY > M 5(FLARE ACTIVITY)

 
> 100 MeV PROTON FLUX 0.3- 0.7 pfu. 0.02- 0.9 pfu. decreasing NONE TYPE II/ IV 0144 UTC TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION  
PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

TODAY:(2)

NONE

0045 UTC

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

 

>0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>4.000 <10.500 pfu (+) >3.200 <10.200 pfu (+) > 10.000 pfu

G1 (predicted)

G1 (predicted)

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

 

>2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>60 < 350 (-) >20 <200 (-) < 1.000 pfu.  
x ray alerts are peaks in solar x ray emissions those occure during flare activities )
 
NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA

NO CURRENT DATA

UNKNOWN    
TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS are typical indicators for Coronal Mass Ejections ( CME)
 
(2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values  

10 cm RADIO BURSTS are typical indicators for STRONGER ERUPTIONS& Coronal Mass ejections

 
(4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu   the hp index shows how far the geomagnetic electron flux is disturbed by solar influences  

 

 

       

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

                 

STATUS:

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment /

ACE Real time plot ( > 10 MeV Protons):    

QUIET

GOES (= Geostationary operative environmental satellites) are at geostationary orbit and measure influences / impacts on the geomagnetic field
 

UNSETTLED

 
ACTIVE  
MINOR STORM  

MAJOR STORM

 
HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS
ACE ( Advanced Composition Explorer) is on and L 1 orbit at the edge between solar and geomagnetic field and measures the intensity and composition of interplanetary solar winds.
 
expected CME arrival  
 
 
* see also report below!
 
USAF report on geophysical activity for previous day:>>                  
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 390 km/s at 25/2203Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 26/1255Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 26/1725Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 23 pfu at 26/0010Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 288 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (27 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (28 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (01 Mar). Protons are likely to cross threshold on day one (27 Feb), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (28 Feb) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (01 Mar).
     
                       
                     
GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -03 nT (USAF) NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 05 nT/(USAF) The Bz component is the value, the geomagnetic field density fluctuates /shifts in North/ South direction such as during CME impacts  
EFFECTIVE PROTONS NO DATA

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

           
new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report and report that represents the highest N/ S amplitude of that day    
                       
         

 

 

 

 

 

2014

MONTH:

FEBRUARY

DAY:

25

 

       

 

 

     

HEADLINES

2014

 

 

         
                 
 

(volcano-discovery/ 20140225) Volcanic activity worldwide 25 Feb 2014: Etna, Marsili Seamount, Pacaya, Kelud, Ibu, Tungurahua, Kilauea

Etna (Sicily, Italy): Mild strombolian activity from the New SE crater and weekly alimented lava effusion from the fissure vents at its eastern base continue.

Marsili Seamount (Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy): A recently published study shows that submarine explosive eruptions have occurred at the underwater volcano in historical times. Therefore, the volcano should be included as one of Italy's still active volcanoes.

>>

Kelud (East Java): An areal photo from 23 Feb shows no signs of a new lava dome, at least not near the surface of the new crater.

Ibu (Halmahera, Indonesia): A thermal anomaly remains visible at the volcano on satellite data, suggesting that there is some sort of ongoing eruptive activity. This could likely be from a slowly growing lava dome.

Kilauea (Hawai'i): (24 Feb) The Kahauale`a 2 lava flow reached 7.8 km (4.8 mi) northeast of Pu`u `O`o by mid-January before stalling. Recent surface flows have been active as small scattered breakouts behind the flow front.

/sciencedirect/ First documented deep submarine explosive eruptions at the Marsili Seamount (Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy): A case of historical volcanism in the Mediterranean Sea

The Marsili Seamount (MS) is an about 3200 m high volcanic complex measuring 70 × 30 km with the top at ~ 500 m b.s.l. MS is interpreted as the ridge of the 2 Ma old Marsili back-arc basin belonging to the Calabrian Arc–Ionian Sea subduction system (Southern Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy). Previous studies indicate that the MS activity developed between 1 and 0.1 Ma through effusions of lava flows. Here, new stratigraphic, textural, geochemical, and 14C geochronological data from a 95 cm long gravity core (COR02) recovered at 839 m bsl in the MS central sector are presented. COR02 contains mud and two tephras consisting of 98 to 100 area% of volcanic ash. The thickness of the upper tephra (TEPH01) is 15 cm, and that of the lower tephra (TEPH02) is 60 cm. The tephras have poor to moderate sorting, loose to partly welded levels, and erosive contacts, which imply a short distance source of the pyroclastics. 14C dating on fossils above and below TEPH01 gives an age of 3 ka BP. Calculations of the sedimentation rates from the mud sediments above and between the tephras suggest that a formation of TEPH02 at 5 ka BP MS ashes has a high-K calcalkaline affinity with 53 wt.% < SiO2 < 68 wt.%, and their composition overlaps that of the MS lava flows. The trace element pattern is consistent with fractional crystallization from a common, OIB-like basalt. The source area of ashes is the central sector of MS and not a subaerial volcano of the Campanian and/or Aeolian Quaternary volcanic districts. Submarine, explosive eruptions occurred at MS in historical times: this is the first evidence of explosive volcanic activity at a significant (500–800 m bsl) water depth in the Mediterranean Sea. MS is still active, the monitoring and an evaluation of the different types of hazards are highly recommended.

 

 
   
^NASA | SDO Observes Strong X-class Solar Flare      
         

 

 

     
ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC      

 

 

EPICENTER/ MAP    
HIGHEST MEASURED GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE TODAY:
GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0
DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>
   

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME
M 5.6 - CARLSBERG RIDGE - 2014-02-24 23:26:57 UTC
LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >
4.04 N ; 62.86 E
DEPTH >
     

 

             

RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

NONE ( DEFAULT) REAL TIME ALERTS>
 
   
EARTHQUAKE REGIONS/ FROM 180° E ON WESTWARDS

TECTONICS:

FREQUENCY/ SINCE

REGION*

EPICENTER:

NUMBER

EVENT ( link to ESMC)  
REGION INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES/ INDIA EUR.>< / INDO- AUS. 20140203

"A"

EPICENTER   M 5.0 - MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA - 2014-02-25 01:49:04 UTC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ CARLSBERG RIDGE/ AFRICA AND ITS TECTONIC BOUNDARIES

EUR >< AFR>< AMER >< ANTAR.

20140224

"E"

EPICENTER   M 5.1 - CARLSBERG RIDGE - 2014-02-25 02:01:26 UTC  
            for updates on the CANARY ISLANDS; visit my google blogspot Canary" hotspot5  
CANADA, ALASKA/ (CASCADIAN SZ) NORTH-AMERICA ><EXPLORER P. SOMETIMES

"C"

EPICENTER 01 M 5.0 - ALASKA PENINSULA - 2014-02-25 15:56:28 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report  
     
     

 

 

               
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL DATA AND EVENTS
solar data by: solen.info NASA/
 
latest data (external sources):
SUN OBSERVERS:
     
                       
         

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

note: solar and terrestrial data are always yesterrday`s values!

20140222

ACTIVE REGIONS AND CORONAL HOLES (solen.info)  

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

157

 

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

348-439

FLARES >

C

10

 

SOLAR FLUX (sfu.)

173.9

 

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

C 1.0

 

M

   

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

02

 

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

75- 110 nT

under proton influence

X

01

 
                 
Today`s RSGA/ USAF - report on solar activity > IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X4 event observed at 25/0049Z from Region 1990 (S12E64). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb, 28 Feb).  
         

 

 

     

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS INVOLVED IN MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITIES, CMEs OR SEPS ( other active regions are not posted)

EARTH DIRECTED CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

   

STATUS :

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

       

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

 

(SUNSPOTS AFTER 24 UTC)

LONGITUDE next 24 h.

LATITUDE

CLASS/ CONF.*

MERIDIAN

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

IMPACT SIZE:

 
                   
 
  11990 66°- 52° E 08° N HKX/ DKC MARCH 02 X4.9/2B at 0.49 UTC FULLY HALO CLUSTER FEB 27 ARIES
 
solen/info/ active regions>
           

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

                 
           
 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 
NUMBER POSITION*: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING MAG &remarks  
CH 605 TRANSEQU. GROWING 20140221 201402 25    
CH 604 NORTHERN FADED 20140218 201402 21    
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

LOW

SOURCE:

decaying CH 604

 
ABBREVIATIONS>
NORTH/ SOUTH POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP/ SP CH- EXT)
UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH
RECURR.= RECURRENT
T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL
 
           
NASA/ D-RAP- global (heat) impact of solar protons^  
   

 

 

             
LATEST SOLAR EVENTS & REPORTS:    
STRONG X 4.9 flare associated to medium strong SEP (> 10 MeV Protons > 10 pfu)              

CME (DATE)

CME AT (UTC)   Satellite Date and Time >              

20140225

0.49
 
SDO/ AIA
STEREO/ A SDO/ AIA SoHO GOES PROTON flux: GOES X-ray flux:  
TRACKING NR.:

04/ 14, a

   
ACTIVE REGION:

AR 11990

 
DIRECTION/ EARTH PARTIAL- HALO  

SUN COORDINATES:

 
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT  

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 
FLARE ass, to SEP X4.9/2B   (1) 20140225/ 1: 25 UTC 20140225/ 05:54 UTC 20140225/ 02:11 UTC 20140225/ 01: 42      

REPORT ON LATEST EARTH DIRECTED CME OR SEP >

 
2014022-. AR 11990 rotated in on the eastern limb and is very active. On 20140225, AR 11990 produced a LDE flare with a significant and fast CME, that peaked with an X4.9/2B event at 0:49. The event however was associated to a typical wide angled SEP Proton emission, that became obvious at 1:25 UTC ( image 1) Its unclear weather parts of this CME might reach the Earth. . As usual, the major SEP event triggererd numerous secondary minor eruptions in its neighborhood, those formed at all a fully halo CME on SoHO. First protons arrrived two hours later after the X 4.0 event shortkly after 03 UTC and would have had had therfore a speed of appr. 20.661 km/ second. CME and SEPs dn`t occure simultanously as SEPs also don`t cause X ray bursts.Thus, the appearance of the SEP on the solar surface at 1:25 might rather be the begin of the proton emission. Ifs this is correct Protons would have a reached a speed of 27.000 km/ sec  
   

 

 

           
 
INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX:
       
 
 
                     

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT : LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:    
PROTON FLUX INCREASING

increase after X 4 flare on 20140225/ 0:49 UTC

ELECTRON FLUX ELEVATED

increase after X 4 flare on 20140225/ 0:49 UTC

   
BEGIN/ END: 20140201- 10

 

 

BEGIN/ END:    

 

 

   
               

 

 

               
ACTIVE SEP EVENTS:
 

 

         

 
SEP ( SOLAR ENERGETIC PROTONS: PROTON IMPACT begin / duration: ELECTRON ACCUMULATION begin / duration: PHASE I (PROTONS)

PHASE II / ELECTRONS

PHASE III
 

ACTIVE SEPs:

SEP/status

> 10 MeV PROTONS > 0.1 < 20 pfu > 2 MeV ELECTRONS (+) > 1000 pfu currently decreasing (CME influence?)  
  latestSEP: 20140225/ 1:29 UTC ongoing     a major SEP was observed aalong with the X4.9/2B at 0.49 UTC  
    20140218- 20 / 06 UTC 20140221/ 06 UTC 20140220/ 18 UTC INTERFERED 3 minor SEP occured on 20140218- 20, while previous major SEP is still active  
    20140107/ 6:00 UTC/ 20140107/ 20140114 (> 1000.pfu!) INTERFERED BY SUCCEEDING SEP       ^GOES integral ELECTRON FLUX- past 3 days  
^remark: orange background means: effect is latent or pending
 

2014022-. AR 11990 rotated in on the eastern limb and is very active. On 20140225, AR 11990 produced a LDE flare with a significant and fast CME, that peaked with an X4.9/2B event at 0:49. The event however was associated to a typical wide angled SEP Proton emission, that became obvious at 1:25 UTC ( image 1) Its unclear weather parts of this CME might reach the Earth. . As usual, the major SEP event triggererd numerous secondary minor eruptions in its neighborhood, those formed at all a fully halo CME on SoHO. First protons arrrived two hours later after the X 4.0 event shortkly after 03 UTC and would have had had therfore a speed of appr. 20.661 km/ second. CME and SEPs dn`t occure simultanously as SEPs also don`t cause X ray bursts.Thus, the appearance of the SEP on the solar surface at 1:25 might rather be the begin of the proton emission. Ifs this is correct Protons would have a reached a speed of 27.000 km/ sec

 
             

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE IMPACTS AND SPACE WEATHER ALERTS ( NOAA):

     
 
INTEGRAL PARTICLE FLUX:   < NOAA ALERTS >

GEOMAGNETIC STORMS AND RADIATION ALERTS ( NOAA):

 
PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

TODAY:(2)

THIS DAY (2)

PAST 24 h

SOLAR ALERTS/ INFLUENCES

 

> 10 MeV PROTON FLUX

> 0.1 < 23 pfu.

> 0.1 < 1 pfu.

> 0.1 < 20 pfu.

> X 1

NONE

X RAY > M 5(FLARE ACTIVITY)

 
  CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):   TYPE II/ IV 0144 UTC TYPE II / 1254 UTC TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION  
PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

TODAY:(2)

0045 UTC

NONE

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

 

>0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>3.200 <10.200 pfu (+) >1.000 <10.100 pfu (-) < 10.000 pfu

NONE

G1

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

 

>2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>20 <200 (-) >38 <200 (-) < 1.000 pfu.  
x ray alerts are peaks in solar x ray emissions those occure during flare activities )
 
NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA

NO CURRENT DATA

UNKNOWN    
TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS are typical indicators for Coronal Mass Ejections ( CME)
 
(2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values  

10 cm RADIO BURSTS are typical indicators for STRONGER ERUPTIONS& Coronal Mass ejections

 
(4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu   the hp index shows how far the geomagnetic electron flux is disturbed by solar influences  

 

 

       

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

                 

STATUS:

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment /

ACE Real time plot ( > 10 MeV Protons):    

QUIET

GOES (= Geostationary operative environmental satellites) are at geostationary orbit and measure influences / impacts on the geomagnetic field
 

UNSETTLED

 
ACTIVE  
MINOR STORM  

MAJOR STORM

 
HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS
ACE ( Advanced Composition Explorer) is on and L 1 orbit at the edge between solar and geomagnetic field and measures the intensity and composition of interplanetary solar winds.
 
HSS influence  
 
 
* see also report below!
 
USAF report on geophysical activity for previous day:>>                  
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 489 km/s at 25/0159Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 23 pfu at 25/2020Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 143 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Feb) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (27 Feb, 28 Feb). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (26 Feb), are likely to cross threshold on day two (27 Feb) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (28 Feb).
     
                       
                     
GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -11 nT (USAF) NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 03 nT/(USAF) The Bz component is the value, the geomagnetic field density fluctuates /shifts in North/ South direction such as during CME impacts  
EFFECTIVE PROTONS NO DATA

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

           
new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report and report that represents the highest N/ S amplitude of that day    
                       
     

EXPERIMENTAL SEP/ VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

ORANGE BACKGROUND= " LATENCY" MEANS: THESE EFFECTS  ARE LATENT AND EXPECTABLE , BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER UNLIKELY  
             

ALERT LEVEL

         
PROTON(SEP) IMPACT ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES TODAY

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

REMARKS AND/ OR PROBABILITY  

26 FEBRUARY 2014

 

M 5.5 >7.0

1- 3 ( mainly magmatic) (Proton influence)  

27 FEBRUARY 2014

 

M 5.5 >7.0

1- 3 ( mainly magmatic) (Proton influence)  

28 FEBRUARY 2014

 

M 5.5 >7.0

1- 3 ( mainly magmatic) preliminary (Proton influence)  

ABOUT LATENCIES:

   

INFLUENCES:

* latent potential for earthquakes with magnitudes higher than M 8.0!  

EFFECTING AS >

INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS(/EARTHQUAKES: HIGHER  
       

NOTES: ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

(In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 
                   

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

background influence:

SEP on (20140107, 20140218- 20)

EFFECTIVE CMEs/ int. Nrs. >

PROTON IMPACTS
 

ALERT LEVEL

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS: LATEST CME IMPACT REGIONS/ =EXPECTABLE EVENT REGIONS  

PROTON(SEP) IMPACT

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES AND TREMORS PRIMARY REGIONS IMPACT PLATE BOUNDARIES (longitudenal):

Latest CME ( SEP impact longitudes

 

INDUCED CURRENTS low/ (+) US WEST COAST , ALASKA/ KAMCHATKA REGIONS MAINLY AFFECTED BY LATEST PROTON EVENT (SEP) 150° E- 150° W  
RADIO BLACKOUTS REGIONS AFFFECTED (ALSO) BY PREVIOUS BUT STILL ACTIVE IMPACTS: global  
SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS/ TORNADOES (-) SOUTH AMERICA & EASTERN PACIFIC

N- AMERICA ><NASCA >< INDO AUS><PACIFIC

Hemisphere: SOUTH- CENTRAL  
WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) WESTERN EUROPE &ATLANTIC

N- AMERICA ><EURASIA ><AFRICA

BACKGROUND EVENTS:
 
SOLAR IMPACTS CAUSING HIGHER TEMPERATURES CENTRAL AMERICA

ATLANTIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< CARRIBEAN >< COCOS

ACCUMULATING SEPS!

 
RAPIDE MELTDOWNS OF GLACIERS OR PERMAICE JAPAN- INDONESIA

EURASIA >< PACIFIC>< INDO/ AUS

accumulating SEPs can create rising heat within the Earth mantle that leads to strong magmatic /volcanic events

 

SEP EFFECTS:

PROTONS: GEOMAGNETIC IMPACT AND DEPRESSION (+)

SECONDARY REGIONS : 1-2 < ESTIMATED EFFECT INTENSITY  
HOT SPOTS > VOLCANIC HOT SPOT ACTIVITIES/ MAGMATIC TREMORS (+)

EASTERN EUROPE

AFRICA>< EURASIA><INDO/AUS><PAC  
PROTONS > PROTON IMPACT > SOUTHERN POLE (+) CENTRAL & WESTERN PACIFIC AMERICA >< PACIFIC >< INDO/ AUS
 
EARTHQUAKES > MAGMATIC QUAKES AFTER PROTON EVENT (mainly near HOTSPOTS)     *REGIONS> see definition in register panel above  
ELECTRONS > HEAT EFFECTS/ ANOMALITIES NEAR NORTHERN POLE (-)

 

   
CLIMATE WEATHER >
DISTURBED SEA CURRENTS/ AND CIRCUM POLAR WIND STREAMS ( ONLY NORTH) (+) >>    
NOTES TO SEP EVENTS::               read also: NASA SCIENCE/ 2005:NASA - A New Kind of Solar Storm  
                       
         

 

 

 

 

 

 

2014

MONTH:

FEBRUARY

DAY:

24

 

       

 

 

     

 

 

               

HEADLINES

2014

 

 

         
 

( assumption Parish Police Jury( 20140224) 3:20 p.m. New Bubbling Site Identified

A new bubbling site has been discovered in Grand Bayou on LA-69, 1/4 mile north of the Gator Corner.Following confirmation of the new bubble site on Grand Bayou, north of its crossing of La. 70, Assumption Parish Incident Command and the coordinated state agencies have made initial investigations and begun taking action to ascertain the source, including determination of whether scientific evidence supports the likely assumption that it is linked to the gas released by the failure of Texas Brine’s Oxy Geismar 3 cavern, and to ensure public safety. The bubbling is occurring directly above the area where Acadian Gas recently drilled a horizontal boring under the Bayou as part of its effort to re-route a pipeline to replace pipeline capacity lost when the sinkhole formed. Acadian has already tested its two existing pipelines in service at the same crossing, and found no indication of leaks.

 
(NASA/ MODIS) February 25, 2014 - Dust storms off Alaska

assdsumptionla/ 20140224) Bubbling in Grand Bayou

 

       

 

 

     

 

 

     
ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC      

 

 

EPICENTER/ MAP    
HIGHEST MEASURED GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE TODAY:
GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0
DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>
   

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME
M 5.6 - CARLSBERG RIDGE - 2014-02-24 23:26:57 UTC
LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >
4.04 N ; 62.86 E
DEPTH >
     

 

             

RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

NONE ( DEFAULT) REAL TIME ALERTS>
 
   
EARTHQUAKE REGIONS/ FROM 180° E ON WESTWARDS

TECTONICS:

FREQUENCY/ SINCE

REGION*

EPICENTER:

NUMBER

EVENT ( link to ESMC)  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ CARLSBERG RIDGE/ AFRICA AND ITS TECTONIC BOUNDARIES

EUR >< AFR>< AMER >< ANTAR.

volcanic?

"E"

EPICENTER 8 x > M 4.0 M 5.3 - CARLSBERG RIDGE - 2014-02-24 23:32:50 UTC  
CONTINENTAL EURASIA INCLUDING ASIA N-AM. ><EUR->< AFR.><PAC> AFTERQUAKES

"E"/"F

EPICENTER 01 M 4.5 - ROMANIA - 2014-02-24 00:22:54 UTC  
            for updates on the CANARY ISLANDS; visit my google blogspot Canary" hotspot5  
CENTRAL USA/ OKLAHOMA NORTH-AMERICA><EUR/ ATLANTIC SERIAL SINCE FEB 2014   EPICENTER 03 M 3.2 - OKLAHOMA - 2014-02-24 00:11:33 UTC  
YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK N-AM./ SAN ANDREAS FAULT >< J. DE FUCA>< PACIFIC 20140108

"C"

EPICENTER 2 x M 3.3 - BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO - 2014-02-24 08:23:44 UT  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report  
     
     

 

 

               
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL DATA AND EVENTS
solar data by: solen.info NASA/
 
latest data (external sources):
SUN OBSERVERS:
     
                       
         

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

note: solar and terrestrial data are always yesterrday`s values!

20140222

ACTIVE REGIONS AND CORONAL HOLES (solen.info)  

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

205

 

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

403-553

FLARES >

C

09

 

SOLAR FLUX (sfu.)

170.7

 

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 9.1

 

M

02  

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

19

 

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

30- 135 nT

HSS influence

X

 

 
                 
Today`s RSGA/ USAF - report on solar activity > IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 24/1205Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Feb, 26 Feb, 27 Feb).  
         

 

 

     

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS INVOLVED IN MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITIES, CMEs OR SEPS ( other active regions are not posted)

EARTH DIRECTED CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

   

STATUS :

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

       

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

 

(SUNSPOTS AFTER 24 UTC)

LONGITUDE next 24 h.

LATITUDE

CLASS/ CONF.*

MERIDIAN

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

IMPACT SIZE:

 
                   
 
  11990 80°- 76° E 08° N HKX/ DKC MARCH 02        
 
other active regions>
(more) by: solen.info          

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

                 
           
 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 
NUMBER POSITION*: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING MAG &remarks  
CH 605 TRANSEQU. GROWING 20140221 201402 25    
CH 604 NORTHERN FADED 20140218 201402 21    
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

LOW

SOURCE:

decaying CH 604

 
ABBREVIATIONS>
NORTH/ SOUTH POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP/ SP CH- EXT)
UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH
RECURR.= RECURRENT
T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL
 
           
   

 

 

           
 
INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX:
       
 
 
                     

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT : LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:    
PROTON FLUX DECREASING

increase after Feb 14 15/ 12 UTC and after three following minor SEPs on Feb 19 and 20

ELECTRON FLUX NORMAL

rising after solar events on Feb 14, 16 and 19 (End: Feb24)

   
BEGIN/ END: 20140201- 10

 

 

BEGIN/ END:    

 

 

   
               

 

 

               
ACTIVE SEP EVENTS:
 

 

         

 
SEP ( SOLAR ENERGETIC PROTONS: PROTON IMPACT begin / duration: ELECTRON ACCUMULATION begin / duration: PHASE I (PROTONS)

PHASE II / ELECTRONS

PHASE III
 

ACTIVE SEPs:

SEP/status

> 10 MeV PROTONS > 0.1 < 1,0 pfu > 2 MeV ELECTRONS (+) > 1000 pfu currently decreasing (CME influence?)  
    20140218- 20 / 06 UTC 20140221/ 06 UTC 20140220/ 18 UTC INTERFERED 3 minor SEP occured on 20140218- 20, while previous major SEP is still active  
    20140107/ 6:00 UTC/ 20140107/ 20140114 (> 1000.pfu!) INTERFERED BY SUCCEEDING SEP        
ACUMMULATION OF SUCCEEDING SEPs! > 10 MeV PROTONS > 0.1 < 1,0 pfu > 2 MeV ELECTRONS (+) > 1000 pfu currently decreasing (CME influence?)  
^remark: orange background means: effect is latent or pending
 

20140218: The electron accumulation very late following the strong SEP on Jan 07 (!) SEP PHASE II began on February 10 , but was again temporarely interrupted by incoming CMEs Febr 15 and 19 associated to a minor new proton SEP event on Febr. 18. SEP effects ( as described in forecast below will therefor mix.

This electron accumulation/ activity will bring - as long as it will persist- higher temperatures mainly to the Northern circumpolar regions and hemisphere for the next 1 - 2 weeks.- Major earthquakes must be expectable when/ if it finally will drop below 1000 pfu. again. Follow may daily updates and experimental earthquake forecasts!

> Proton flux increased after two following SEP events on February 19 and 20 : / ( I will later that day try to find out mor about the related solar event)>

 
             

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE IMPACTS AND SPACE WEATHER ALERTS ( NOAA):

     
 
INTEGRAL PARTICLE FLUX:   < NOAA ALERTS >

GEOMAGNETIC STORMS AND RADIATION ALERTS ( NOAA):

 
PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

TODAY:(2)

THIS DAY (2)

PAST 24 h

SOLAR ALERTS/ INFLUENCES

 

> 10 MeV PROTON FLUX

> 0.1 < 1 pfu.

> 0.1 < 1 pfu.

> 0.1 < 1 pfu.

NONE

NONE

X RAY > M 5(FLARE ACTIVITY)

 
  CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):   NONE TYPE II / 1254 UTC TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION  
PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

TODAY:(2)

NONE

NONE

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

 

>0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>1.000 <10.100 pfu (-) >500 <80.000 pfu (-) < 10.000 pfu

NONE

G1

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

 

>2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>38 <200 (-) >10 < 3.800 (-) < 1.000 pfu.  
x ray alerts are peaks in solar x ray emissions those occure during flare activities )
 
NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA

NO CURRENT DATA

UNKNOWN    
TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS are typical indicators for Coronal Mass Ejections ( CME)
 
(2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values  

10 cm RADIO BURSTS are typical indicators for STRONGER ERUPTIONS& Coronal Mass ejections

 
(4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu   the hp index shows how far the geomagnetic electron flux is disturbed by solar influences  

 

 

       

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

                 

STATUS:

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment /

ACE Real time plot ( > 10 MeV Protons):    

QUIET

GOES (= Geostationary operative environmental satellites) are at geostationary orbit and measure influences / impacts on the geomagnetic field
 

UNSETTLED

 
ACTIVE  
MINOR STORM  

MAJOR STORM

 
HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS
ACE ( Advanced Composition Explorer) is on and L 1 orbit at the edge between solar and geomagnetic field and measures the intensity and composition of interplanetary solar winds.
 
HSS influence  
 
 
* see also report below!
 
USAF report on geophysical activity for previous day:>>                  
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 589 km/s at 24/0550Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 23/2224Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 23/2101Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (25 Feb, 27 Feb) and quiet levels on day two (26 Feb).
     
                       
                     
GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -11 nT (USAF) NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 12 nT/(USAF) The Bz component is the value, the geomagnetic field density fluctuates /shifts in North/ South direction such as during CME impacts  
EFFECTIVE PROTONS NO DATA

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

           
new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report and report that represents the highest N/ S amplitude of that day    
                       
         

 

 

 

 

 

2014

MONTH:

FEBRUARY

DAY:

23

 

       

 

 

     
ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC      

 

 

EPICENTER/ MAP    
HIGHEST MEASURED GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE TODAY:
GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0
DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>
   

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME
M 5.4 - KURIL ISLANDS - 2014-02-23 04:54:17 UTC
LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >
43.48 N ; 147.86 E
DEPTH >
10 km    

 

             

RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

NONE ( DEFAULT) REAL TIME ALERTS>
 
   
EARTHQUAKE REGIONS/ FROM 180° E ON WESTWARDS

TECTONICS:

FREQUENCY/ SINCE

REGION*

EPICENTER:

NUMBER

EVENT ( link to ESMC)  
EASTERN PACIFIC/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC. PAC. >< INDO- AUS FREQUENT

"B"

EPICENTER   M 5.0 - EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G. - 2014-02-23 19:43:36 UTC  
REGION INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES/ INDIA EUR.>< / INDO- AUS. 20140203

"A"

EPICENTER 03 X > M 4 M 5.3 - SULAWESI, INDONESIA - 2014-02-23 15:06:54 UTC  
            for updates on the CANARY ISLANDS; visit my google blogspot Canary" hotspot5  
CENTRAL USA/ OKLAHOMA NORTH-AMERICA><EUR/ ATLANTIC SERIAL SINCE FEB 2014   EPICENTER 4x > M 3 M 3.5 - OKLAHOMA - 2014-02-23 09:15:41 UTC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ CA/ SAN ANDREAS FAULT & YELLOWSTONE SV. N-AM./ SAN ANDREAS FAULT >< J. DE FUCA>< PACIFIC   "C" EPICENTER 3 x M 3.2 - NORTHERN CALIFORNIA - 2014-02-22 06:23:29 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report  
     
     

 

 

               
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL DATA AND EVENTS
solar data by: solen.info NASA/    
latest data (external sources):
SUN OBSERVERS:
     
                       
         

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

note: solar and terrestrial data are always yesterrday`s values!

20140222

ACTIVE REGIONS AND CORONAL HOLES (solen.info)  

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

185

 

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

379-481

FLARES >

C

09

 

SOLAR FLUX (sfu.)

171.8

 

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 9.9

 

M

01  

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

19

 

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

30- 135 nT

HSS influence

X

 

 
                 
Today`s RSGA/ USAF - report on solar activity > IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 23/0610Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb, 26 Feb).  
         

 

 

     

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS INVOLVED IN MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITIES, CMEs OR SEPS ( other active regions are not posted)

EARTH DIRECTED CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

   

STATUS :

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

       

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

 

(SUNSPOTS AFTER 24 UTC)

LONGITUDE next 24 h.

LATITUDE

CLASS/ CONF.*

MERIDIAN

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

IMPACT SIZE:

 
  AR 11981- 84 SUN SPOT CLUSTER              
 
  11982 07- - 21° W 11° S EKC          
 
other active regions>
(more) by: solen.info          

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

                 
             
 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 
NUMBER POSITION*: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING MAG &remarks  
CH 605 TRANSEQU. GROWING 20140221 201402 25    
CH 604 NORTHERN SMALL/DECAYING 20140218 201402 21    
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

LOW

SOURCE:

decaying CH 604

 
ABBREVIATIONS>
NORTH/ SOUTH POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP/ SP CH- EXT)
UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH
RECURR.= RECURRENT
T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL
 
              NASA/ D-RAP- global (heat) impact of solar protons^  

 

 

               
INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX:
           
 
                     

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT : LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:    
PROTON FLUX DECREASING

increase after Feb 14 15/ 12 UTC and after three following SEPs on Feb 19 and 20

ELECTRON FLUX NORMAL

rising after solar events on Feb 14, 16 and 19 (End: Feb24)

   
BEGIN/ END: 20140201- 10

 

 

BEGIN/ END:    

 

 

   
               

 

 

               
ACTIVE SEP EVENTS:
 

 

         

 
SEP ( SOLAR ENERGETIC PROTONS: PROTON IMPACT begin / duration: ELECTRON ACCUMULATION begin / duration: PHASE I (PROTONS)

PHASE II / ELECTRONS

PHASE III
 

ACTIVE SEPs:

SEP/status

3 minor SEP occured on 20140218- 20, while previous major SEP is still active      
  latestSEP: 20140107/ 6:00 UTC/ 20140107/ 20140114 (> 1000.pfu!)        
    20140218- 20 / 06 UTC 20140221/ 06 UTC 20140220/ 18 UTC ongoing        
ACUMMULATION OF SUCCEEDING SEPs! > 10 MeV PROTONS > 0.1 < 1,0 pfu > 2 MeV ELECTRONS (+) > 1000 pfu currently decreasing (CME influence?)  
^remark: orange background means: effect is latent or pending
     

20140218: The electron accumulation very late following the strong SEP on Jan 07 (!) SEP PHASE II began on February 10 , but was again temporarely interrupted by incoming CMEs Febr 15 and 19 associated to a minor new proton SEP event on Febr. 18. SEP effects ( as described in forecast below will therefor mix.

This electron accumulation/ activity will bring - as long as it will persist- higher temperatures mainly to the Northern circumpolar regions and hemisphere for the next 1 - 2 weeks.- Major earthquakes must be expectable when/ if it finally will drop below 1000 pfu. again. Follow may daily updates and experimental earthquake forecasts!

> Proton flux increased after two following SEP events on February 19 and 20 : / ( I will later that day try to find out mor about the related solar event)>

 
             

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE IMPACTS AND SPACE WEATHER ALERTS ( NOAA):

         
INTEGRAL PARTICLE FLUX:   < NOAA ALERTS >

GEOMAGNETIC STORMS AND RADIATION ALERTS ( NOAA):

 
PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

TODAY:(2)

THIS DAY (2)

PAST 24 h

SOLAR ALERTS/ INFLUENCES

 

> 10 MeV PROTON FLUX

> 0.1 < 1 pfu.

> 0.1 < 1 pfu.

> 0.1 < 1 pfu.

NONE

NONE

X RAY > M 5(FLARE ACTIVITY)

 
  CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):   TYPE II / 1254 UTC NONE TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION  
PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

TODAY:(2)

NONE

NONE

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

 

>0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>500 <80.000 pfu (-) >200 <90.000 pfu (+) > 10.000 pfu

NONE

G1

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

 

>2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>10 < 3.800 (-) >00 < 6.000 (+) < 1.000 pfu.  
x ray alerts are peaks in solar x ray emissions those occure during flare activities )
 
NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA

NO CURRENT DATA

UNKNOWN    
TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS are typical indicators for Coronal Mass Ejections ( CME)
 
(2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values  

10 cm RADIO BURSTS are typical indicators for STRONGER ERUPTIONS& Coronal Mass ejections

 
(4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu   the hp index shows how far the geomagnetic electron flux is disturbed by solar influences  

 

 

       

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

                 

STATUS:

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment /

ACE Real time plot ( > 10 MeV Protons):    

QUIET

GOES (= Geostationary operative environmental satellites) are at geostationary orbit and measure influences / impacts on the geomagnetic field
 

UNSETTLED

 
ACTIVE  
MINOR STORM  

MAJOR STORM

 
HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS
ACE ( Advanced Composition Explorer) is on and L 1 orbit at the edge between solar and geomagnetic field and measures the intensity and composition of interplanetary solar winds.
 
HSS influence  
 
 
* see also report below!
 
USAF report on geophysical activity for previous day:>>                  
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 524 km/s at 23/0544Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 23/1414Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 23/1434Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2779 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (24 Feb, 25 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (26 Feb).
     
                       
                     
GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -11 nT (USAF) NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 12 nT/(USAF) The Bz component is the value, the geomagnetic field density fluctuates /shifts in North/ South direction such as during CME impacts  
EFFECTIVE PROTONS NO DATA

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

           
new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report and report that represents the highest N/ S amplitude of that day    
                       
         

 

 

 

 

 

2014

MONTH:

FEBRUARY

DAY:

22

 

       

 

 

     

 

 

               

HEADLINES

2014

 

 

         
                 

volcano_discovery/ 20140223) Sakurajima (Kyushu, Japan):

 

( Nature, 20140220) hydrogen fusion: Fuel gain exceeding unity in an inertially confined fusion implosion

Ignition is needed to make fusion energy a viable alternative energy source, but has yet to be achieved1. A key step on the way to ignition is to have the energy generated through fusion reactions in an inertially confined fusion plasma exceed the amount of energy deposited into the deuterium–tritium fusion fuel and hotspot during the implosion process, resulting in a fuel gain greater than unity.

read also:

Big leap for fusion: more energy produced than spent igniting fuel

Researchers in the US have overcome a key barrier to making nuclear fusion reactors a reality. In results published in Nature, scientists have shown that they can now produce more energy than put into igniting fuel, at least on an experimental scale. The use of fusion as a source of energy remains a long way off, but the latest development is an important step toward that goal. Nuclear fusion is the process that powers the Sun and billions of other stars in the Universe. If mastered, it could provide an unlimited source of clean energy because the raw materials are plentiful and the operation produces no carbon emissions.

Nongovernmental international panel for climate change.

Climate change reconsidered

In a paper published in Nature, Huntingford et al. (2013) write "there is considerable interest in determining whether global warming is increasing climate variability," due to the concerns of some scientists that an increase in climate variability could result in more extreme types of weather. And, therefore, concerned about the study of Hansen et al. (2012) - which had purported to find, in Huntingford et al.'s words, "seasonal mean temperatures are starting to show increased variability, with a particularly large difference between the 1970s and the 1980s" - they decided to take a closer look at the problem. Working with global temperature data for the period 1984-2006, the five researchers were able to demonstrate that in spite of the fact that "fluctuations in annual temperature have indeed shown substantial geographical variation over the past few decades, the time-evolving standard deviation of globally averaged temperature anomalies has been stable."

 

 

 

 

 

 

( faculty for mathrematical and physical sciences( UK):/ Astronomers find solar storms behave like supernovae

Researchers at UCL have studied the behaviour of the Sun's coronal mass ejections, explaining for the first time the details of how these huge eruptions behave as they fall back onto the Sun’s surface. In the process, they have discovered that coronal mass ejections have a surprising twin in the depths of space: the tendrils of gas in the Crab Nebula, which lie 6500 light-years away and are millions of times larger....read more...

image >> The plasma falling into the Sun split apart into 'fingers', like ink dops falling through water Photo credit: NASA/SDO

 
         

 

 

     
ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC      

 

 

EPICENTER/ MAP    
HIGHEST MEASURED GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE TODAY:
GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0
DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>
   

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME
M 5.6 - SCOTIA SEA - 2014-02-22 22:39:32 UTC
LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >
60.24 S ; 47.37 W
DEPTH >
10 km    

 

             

RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

NONE ( DEFAULT) REAL TIME ALERTS>
 
   
EARTHQUAKE REGIONS/ FROM 180° E ON WESTWARDS

TECTONICS:

FREQUENCY/ SINCE

REGION*

EPICENTER:

NUMBER

EVENT ( link to ESMC)  
REGION INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES/ INDIA EUR.>< / INDO- AUS. 20140203

"A"

EPICENTER 03 X > M 5 M 5.2 - NIAS REGION, INDONESIA - 2014-02-22 17:29:48 UTC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ CA/ SAN ANDREAS FAULT & YELLOWSTONE SV. N-AM./ SAN ANDREAS FAULT >< J. DE FUCA>< PACIFIC   "C" EPICENTER 3 x M 3.2 - NORTHERN CALIFORNIA - 2014-02-22 06:23:29 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report  
     
     

 

 

               
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL DATA AND EVENTS
solar data by: solen.info NASA/    
latest data (external sources):
SUN OBSERVERS:
     
                       
         

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

note: solar and terrestrial data are always yesterrday`s values!

20140222

ACTIVE REGIONS AND CORONAL HOLES (solen.info)  

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

179

 

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

379-481

FLARES >

C

07

 

SOLAR FLUX (sfu.)

153.2

 

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 7.8

 

M

   

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

14

 

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

42- 112 nT

weak CME arrival

X

 

 
                 
Today`s RSGA/ USAF - report on solar activity > IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 22/1550Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb, 25 Feb).  
         

 

 

     

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS INVOLVED IN MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITIES, CMEs OR SEPS ( other active regions are not posted)

EARTH DIRECTED CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

   

STATUS :

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

       

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

 

(SUNSPOTS AFTER 24 UTC)

LONGITUDE next 24 h.

LATITUDE

CLASS/ CONF.*

MERIDIAN

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

IMPACT SIZE:

 
  AR 11981- 84 SUN SPOT CLUSTER              
 
  11982 06- E - 08° W 11° S DKC/ DAC FEB 23        
 
other active regions>
(more) by: solen.info          

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

                 
             
 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 
NUMBER POSITION*: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING MAG &remarks  
CH 605 TRANSEQU. GROWING 20140221 201402 25    
CH 604 NORTHERN SMALL/DECAYING 20140218 201402 21    
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

 
ABBREVIATIONS>
NORTH/ SOUTH POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP/ SP CH- EXT)
UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH
RECURR.= RECURRENT
T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL
 
              NASA/ D-RAP- global (heat) impact of solar protons^  

 

 

               
INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX:
           
 
                     

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT : LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:    
PROTON FLUX DECREASING

increase after Feb 14 15/ 12 UTC and after three following SEPs on Feb 19 and 20

ELECTRON FLUX NORMAL

rising after solar events on Feb 14, 16 and 19 (End: Feb24)

   
BEGIN/ END: 20140201- 10

 

 

BEGIN/ END:    

 

 

   
               

 

 

               
ACTIVE SEP EVENTS:
 

 

               
SEP ( SOLAR ENERGETIC PROTONS: PROTON IMPACT begin / duration: ELECTRON ACCUMULATION begin / duration: PHASE I (PROTONS)

PHASE II / ELECTRONS

PHASE III

 

ACTIVE SEPs:

SEP/status

3 minor SEP occured on 20140218- 20, while previous major SEP is still active      
  latestSEP: 20140107/ 6:00 UTC/ 20140107/ 20140114 (> 1000.pfu!) interfered      
    20140218- 20 / 06 UTC 20140221/ 06 UTC 20140220/ 18 UTC ongoing        
ACUMMULATION OF SUCCEEDING SEPs! > 10 MeV PROTONS > 0.1 < 1,0 pfu > 2 MeV ELECTRONS (+) > 1000 pfu electron flux exceeded 1000 pfu  
^remark: orange background means: effect is latent or pending
 
 

20140218: The electron accumulation very late following the strong SEP on Jan 07 (!) SEP PHASE II began on February 10 , but was again temporarely interrupted by incoming CMEs Febr 15 and 19 associated to a minor new proton SEP event on Febr. 18. SEP effects ( as described in forecast below will therefor mix.

This electron accumulation/ activity will bring - as long as it will persist- higher temperatures mainly to the Northern circumpolar regions and hemisphere for the next 1 - 2 weeks.- Major earthquakes must be expectable when/ if it finally will drop below 1000 pfu. again. Follow may daily updates and experimental earthquake forecasts!

> Proton flux increased after two following SEP events on February 19 and 20 : / ( I will later that day try to find out mor about the related solar event)>

 
             

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE IMPACTS AND SPACE WEATHER ALERTS ( NOAA):

         
INTEGRAL PARTICLE FLUX:   < NOAA ALERTS >

GEOMAGNETIC STORMS AND RADIATION ALERTS ( NOAA):

 
PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

TODAY:(2)

THIS DAY (2)

PAST 24 h

SOLAR ALERTS/ INFLUENCES

 

> 10 MeV PROTON FLUX

> 0.1 < 1 pfu.

> 0.1 < 1.0

> 0.1 < 1 pfu.

NONE

NONE

X RAY > M 5(FLARE ACTIVITY)

 
  CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):   NONE NONE TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION  
PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

TODAY:(2)

NONE

NONE

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

 

>0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>200 <90.000 pfu (+) >200 < 101.000 pfu (+) > 10.000 pfu

NONE

NONE

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

 

>2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>00 < 6.000 (+) >1.000 < 8.000 (+) > 1.000 pfu.  
x ray alerts are peaks in solar x ray emissions those occure during flare activities )
 
NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA

NO CURRENT DATA

UNKNOWN    
TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS are typical indicators for Coronal Mass Ejections ( CME)
 
(2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values  

10 cm RADIO BURSTS are typical indicators for STRONGER ERUPTIONS& Coronal Mass ejections

 
(4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu   the hp index shows how far the geomagnetic electron flux is disturbed by solar influences  

 

 

       

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

                 

STATUS:

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment /

ACE Real time plot ( > 10 MeV Protons):    

QUIET

GOES (= Geostationary operative environmental satellites) are at geostationary orbit and measure influences / impacts on the geomagnetic field
 

UNSETTLED

 
ACTIVE  
MINOR STORM  

MAJOR STORM

 
HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS
ACE ( Advanced Composition Explorer) is on and L 1 orbit at the edge between solar and geomagnetic field and measures the intensity and composition of interplanetary solar winds.
 
MINOR CME IMPACT  
 
 
* see also report below!
 
USAF report on geophysical activity for previous day:>>                  
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 504 km/s at 22/0120Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 21/2304Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 21/2319Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1760 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb). Protons greater than 10 MeV have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (23 Feb).
     
                       
                     
GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -08 nT (USAF) NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 8 nT/(USAF) The Bz component is the value, the geomagnetic field density fluctuates /shifts in North/ South direction such as during CME impacts  
EFFECTIVE PROTONS NO DATA

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

           
new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report and report that represents the highest N/ S amplitude of that day    
                       
         

 

 

 

 

 

2014

MONTH:

FEBRUARY

DAY:

21

 

       

 

 

     

 

 

               

HEADLINES

2014

 

 

         
                 

(bvolcano-discovery/ 20140221) Nishino-Shima volcano (Izu Islands, Japan): island has doubled in elevation

The island continues to grow by progressing lava flows into several directions, as the latest images by the Japanese Coast Guard from 16 Feb show. Its highest peak, formed by the western of the 2 active vents, was measured at 66 m, i.e. it now reached almost twice the height of the peak of the old island. The new addition has more than doubled the size of the island so far.

 

(BBC/ 20140222) New online tool tracks tree loss in 'near real time'

A new global monitoring system has been launched that promises "near real time" information on deforestation around the world. Global Forest Watch (GFW) is backed by Google and over 40 business and campaigning groups.

It uses information from hundreds of millions of satellite images as well as data from people on the ground. Businesses have welcomed the new database as it could help them prove that their products are sustainable. Despite greater awareness around of the world of the impacts of deforestation, the scale of forest loss since 2000 has been significant - Data from Google and the University of Maryland says the world lost 230 million hectares of trees between 2000 and 2012.

>> The map shows forest change from 2000-12. Green areas are forested; red suffered forest loss; blue showed forest gain; pink experienced both loss and gain.

 
 

^Kelut volcano (East Java, Indonesia): eruption update: possible lava dome forming

A MODIS hot spot is visible at the crater, suggesting that a new lava dome could be forming there. This would be the effusive continuation of the recent explosion on 13 Feb, as magma with much less gas content continues to arrive at the vent

/the watchers/ 20140221) A great freeze over the Great Lakes

Ice cover on North America’s Great Lakes reached 88 percent in mid-February 2014, levels not observed since 1994. The average maximum ice extent since 1973 is just over 50 percent. It has surpassed 80 percent just five times in four decades. The lowest average ice extent occurred in 2002, when only 9.5 percent of the lakes froze, EO reports. “Persistently low temperatures across the Great Lakes region are responsible for the increased areal coverage of the ice," said Nathan Kurtz, cryospheric scientist NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center.

> Great Lakes become nearly covered with ice >>

 
         

 

 

     
ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC      

 

 

EPICENTER/ MAP    
HIGHEST MEASURED GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE TODAY:
GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0
DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>
   

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME
M 5.2 - OFFSHORE FALCON, VENEZUELA - 2014-02-21 11:43:23 UTC
LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >
12.43 N ; 70.70 W
DEPTH >
10 km    

 

             

RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

NONE ( DEFAULT) REAL TIME ALERTS>
 
   
EARTHQUAKE REGIONS/ FROM 180° E ON WESTWARDS

TECTONICS:

FREQUENCY/ SINCE

REGION*

EPICENTER:

NUMBER

EVENT ( link to ESMC)  
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA/ KURIL ISLANDS / JAPAN N-AM. >< EUR. >< PAC.><PHIL. FREQUENT

"B"

EPICENTER 03 X > M 4.0 M 4.9 - TAIWAN - 2014-02-21 20:25:16 UTC  
EASTERN PACIFIC/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC. PAC. >< INDO- AUS FREQUENT

"B"

EPICENTER 01 M 5.0 - KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND - 2014-02-21 17:51:37 UTC  
REGION CHILE / ARGENTINE ( SA/ NASCA PLATE) SOUTH AMERICA >< NASZA RATHER SELDOM

"D"

EPICENTER   M 5.1 - LA RIOJA, ARGENTINA - 2014-02-21 10:43:47 UTC  
CENTRAL USA/ OKLAHOMA NORTH-AMERICA><EUR/ ATLANTIC SERIAL SINCE FEB 2014   EPICENTER 02 M 3.2 - OKLAHOMA - 2014-02-21 21:38:50 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report  
     
         
TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS
wunderground.com NO REPORTED TROPICAL STORMS TODAY            
         
               
INDIAN OCEAN:
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK
EMERGED ON:
REGION
WIND SPEED
COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
   
Tropical Cyclone Guito 20140220 INDIAN OCEAN 40 MPH () 41.3° E 32.9° N
600 KM SE OFF THE COAST OF SWAZILAND
SE
     
                       
NOAA/ Hurricane Center NASA/ GOES NOAA usno.navy.mil METEOALARM METEOSAT

 

 
     

 

 

 

 

             
     

 

 

               
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL DATA AND EVENTS
solar data by: solen.info NASA/    
latest data (external sources):
SUN OBSERVERS:
     
                       
         

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

note: solar and terrestrial data are always yesterrday`s values!

20140217 >

ACTIVE REGIONS AND CORONAL HOLES (solen.info)  

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

152

 

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

445-546

FLARES >

C

05

 

SOLAR FLUX (sfu.)

156.8

 

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 8.8

 

M

   

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

08

 

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

10- 120 nT

CME disturbance

X

 

 
                 
Today`s RSGA/ USAF - report on solar activity > IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 21/1117Z from Region 1976 (S13W94). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb, 24 Feb).  
         

 

 

     

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS INVOLVED IN MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITIES, CMEs OR SEPS ( other active regions are not posted)

EARTH DIRECTED CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

   

STATUS :

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

       

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

 

(SUNSPOTS AFTER 24 UTC)

LONGITUDE next 24 h.

LATITUDE

CLASS/ CONF.*

MERIDIAN

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

IMPACT SIZE:

 
  AR 11981- 84 SUN SPOT CLUSTER              
 
  11982 32- 18° E 11° S DKC/ DAC FEB 23        
 
other active regions>
(more) by: solen.info          

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

                 
             
 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 
NUMBER POSITION*: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING MAG &remarks  
CH 605 TRANSEQU. GROWING 20140221 201402 25    
CH 604 NORTHERN SMALL/DECAYING 20140218 201402 21    
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

 
ABBREVIATIONS>
NORTH/ SOUTH POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP/ SP CH- EXT)
UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH
RECURR.= RECURRENT
T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL
 
              NASA/ D-RAP- global (heat) impact of solar protons^  

 

 

               
INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX:
           
 
                     

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT : LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:    
PROTON FLUX DECREASING

increase after Feb 14 15/ 12 UTC and after three following SEPs on Feb 19 and 20

ELECTRON FLUX DECREASING

rising after solar events on Feb 14, 16 and 19

   
BEGIN/ END: 20140201- 10

 

 

BEGIN/ END:    

 

 

   
               

 

 

               
ACTIVE SEP EVENTS:
 

 

               
SEP ( SOLAR ENERGETIC PROTONS: PROTON IMPACT begin / duration: ELECTRON ACCUMULATION begin / duration: PHASE I (PROTONS)

PHASE II / ELECTRONS

PHASE III

 

ACTIVE SEPs:

SEP/status

3 minor SEP occured on 20140218- 20, while previous major SEP is still active      
  latestSEP: 20140107/ 6:00 UTC/ 20140107/ 20140114 (> 1000.pfu!) interfered      
    20140218- 20 / 06 UTC 20140221/ 06 UTC 20140220/ 18 UTC ongoing        
ACUMMULATION OF SUCCEEDING SEPs! > 10 MeV PROTONS > 0.1 < 1,0 pfu > 2 MeV ELECTRONS (+) > 1000 pfu electron flux exceeded 1000 pfu  
^remark: orange background means: effect is latent or pending
 
 

20140218: The electron accumulation very late following the strong SEP on Jan 07 (!) SEP PHASE II began on February 10 , but was again temporarely interrupted by incoming CMEs Febr 15 and 19 associated to a minor new proton SEP event on Febr. 18. SEP effects ( as described in forecast below will therefor mix.

This electron accumulation/ activity will bring - as long as it will persist- higher temperatures mainly to the Northern circumpolar regions and hemisphere for the next 1 - 2 weeks.- Major earthquakes must be expectable when/ if it finally will drop below 1000 pfu. again. Follow may daily updates and experimental earthquake forecasts!

> Proton flux increased after two following SEP events on February 19 and 20 : / ( I will later that day try to find out mor about the related solar event)>

 
             

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE IMPACTS AND SPACE WEATHER ALERTS ( NOAA):

         
INTEGRAL PARTICLE FLUX:   < NOAA ALERTS >

GEOMAGNETIC STORMS AND RADIATION ALERTS ( NOAA):

 
PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

TODAY:(2)

THIS DAY (2)

PAST 24 h

SOLAR ALERTS/ INFLUENCES

 

> 10 MeV PROTON FLUX

> 0.1 < 1.0

> 0.1 < 20 pfu

> 0.1 < 1 pfu.

NONE

NONE

X RAY > M 5(FLARE ACTIVITY)

 
  CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):   NONE NONE TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION  
PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

TODAY:(2)

NONE

NONE

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

 

>0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>200 < 101.000 pfu (+) >04 < 19.000 pfu (+) > 100.000 pfu

NONE

G 1

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

 

>2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>1.000 < 8.000 (+) > -xx <250 (+) > 1.000 pfu.  
x ray alerts are peaks in solar x ray emissions those occure during flare activities )
 
NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA

NO CURRENT DATA

UNKNOWN    
TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS are typical indicators for Coronal Mass Ejections ( CME)
 
(2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values  

10 cm RADIO BURSTS are typical indicators for STRONGER ERUPTIONS& Coronal Mass ejections

 
(4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu   the hp index shows how far the geomagnetic electron flux is disturbed by solar influences  

 

 

       

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

                 

STATUS:

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment /

ACE Real time plot ( > 10 MeV Protons):    

QUIET

GOES (= Geostationary operative environmental satellites) are at geostationary orbit and measure influences / impacts on the geomagnetic field
 

UNSETTLED

 
ACTIVE  
MINOR STORM  

MAJOR STORM

 
HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS
ACE ( Advanced Composition Explorer) is on and L 1 orbit at the edge between solar and geomagnetic field and measures the intensity and composition of interplanetary solar winds.
 
CME IMPACT EXPECTED  
 
 
* see also report below!
 
USAF report on geophysical activity for previous day:>>                  
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 571 km/s at 21/0633Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 20/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 21/0818Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1915 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (22 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (23 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (24 Feb). Protons greater than 10 MeV have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (22 Feb, 23 Feb).
     
                       
                     
GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -08 nT (USAF) NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 8 nT/(USAF) The Bz component is the value, the geomagnetic field density fluctuates /shifts in North/ South direction such as during CME impacts  
EFFECTIVE PROTONS NO DATA

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

           
new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report and report that represents the highest N/ S amplitude of that day    
                       
         
         

 

click here to open and close collapsible panel with the archived "SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG" FEBRUARY 15- 21- 2014
LATEST SIGNIFICANT EVENTS:
 

 

 

 

 

 

2014

MONTH:

FEBRUARY

DAY:

21

 

       

 

 

     

 

 

               

HEADLINES

2014

 

 

         
                 

(bvolcano-discovery/ 20140221) Nishino-Shima volcano (Izu Islands, Japan): island has doubled in elevation

The island continues to grow by progressing lava flows into several directions, as the latest images by the Japanese Coast Guard from 16 Feb show. Its highest peak, formed by the western of the 2 active vents, was measured at 66 m, i.e. it now reached almost twice the height of the peak of the old island. The new addition has more than doubled the size of the island so far.

 

(BBC/ 20140222) New online tool tracks tree loss in 'near real time'

A new global monitoring system has been launched that promises "near real time" information on deforestation around the world. Global Forest Watch (GFW) is backed by Google and over 40 business and campaigning groups.

It uses information from hundreds of millions of satellite images as well as data from people on the ground. Businesses have welcomed the new database as it could help them prove that their products are sustainable. Despite greater awareness around of the world of the impacts of deforestation, the scale of forest loss since 2000 has been significant - Data from Google and the University of Maryland says the world lost 230 million hectares of trees between 2000 and 2012.

>> The map shows forest change from 2000-12. Green areas are forested; red suffered forest loss; blue showed forest gain; pink experienced both loss and gain.

 
 

^Kelut volcano (East Java, Indonesia): eruption update: possible lava dome forming

A MODIS hot spot is visible at the crater, suggesting that a new lava dome could be forming there. This would be the effusive continuation of the recent explosion on 13 Feb, as magma with much less gas content continues to arrive at the vent

/the watchers/ 20140221) A great freeze over the Great Lakes

Ice cover on North America’s Great Lakes reached 88 percent in mid-February 2014, levels not observed since 1994. The average maximum ice extent since 1973 is just over 50 percent. It has surpassed 80 percent just five times in four decades. The lowest average ice extent occurred in 2002, when only 9.5 percent of the lakes froze, EO reports. “Persistently low temperatures across the Great Lakes region are responsible for the increased areal coverage of the ice," said Nathan Kurtz, cryospheric scientist NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center.

> Great Lakes become nearly covered with ice >>

 
         

 

 

     
ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC      

 

 

EPICENTER/ MAP    
HIGHEST MEASURED GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE TODAY:
GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0
DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>
   

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME
M 5.2 - OFFSHORE FALCON, VENEZUELA - 2014-02-21 11:43:23 UTC
LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >
12.43 N ; 70.70 W
DEPTH >
10 km    

 

             

RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

NONE ( DEFAULT) REAL TIME ALERTS>
 
   
EARTHQUAKE REGIONS/ FROM 180° E ON WESTWARDS

TECTONICS:

FREQUENCY/ SINCE

REGION*

EPICENTER:

NUMBER

EVENT ( link to ESMC)  
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA/ KURIL ISLANDS / JAPAN N-AM. >< EUR. >< PAC.><PHIL. FREQUENT

"B"

EPICENTER 03 X > M 4.0 M 4.9 - TAIWAN - 2014-02-21 20:25:16 UTC  
EASTERN PACIFIC/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC. PAC. >< INDO- AUS FREQUENT

"B"

EPICENTER 01 M 5.0 - KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND - 2014-02-21 17:51:37 UTC  
REGION CHILE / ARGENTINE ( SA/ NASCA PLATE) SOUTH AMERICA >< NASZA RATHER SELDOM

"D"

EPICENTER   M 5.1 - LA RIOJA, ARGENTINA - 2014-02-21 10:43:47 UTC  
CENTRAL USA/ OKLAHOMA NORTH-AMERICA><EUR/ ATLANTIC SERIAL SINCE FEB 2014   EPICENTER 02 M 3.2 - OKLAHOMA - 2014-02-21 21:38:50 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report  
     
         
TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS
wunderground.com NO REPORTED TROPICAL STORMS TODAY      
 
         
               
INDIAN OCEAN:
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK
EMERGED ON:
REGION
WIND SPEED
COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
   
Tropical Cyclone Guito 20140220 INDIAN OCEAN 40 MPH () 41.3° E 32.9° N
600 KM SE OFF THE COAST OF SWAZILAND
SE
     
                       
NOAA/ Hurricane Center NASA/ GOES NOAA usno.navy.mil METEOALARM METEOSAT

 

 
     

 

 

 

 

             
     

 

 

               
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL DATA AND EVENTS
solar data by: solen.info NASA/
 
latest data (external sources):
SUN OBSERVERS:
     
                       
         

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

note: solar and terrestrial data are always yesterrday`s values!

20140217 >

ACTIVE REGIONS AND CORONAL HOLES (solen.info)  

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

152

 

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

445-546

FLARES >

C

05

 

SOLAR FLUX (sfu.)

156.8

 

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 8.8

 

M

   

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

08

 

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

10- 120 nT

CME disturbance

X

 

 
                 
Today`s RSGA/ USAF - report on solar activity > IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 21/1117Z from Region 1976 (S13W94). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb, 24 Feb).  
         

 

 

     

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS INVOLVED IN MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITIES, CMEs OR SEPS ( other active regions are not posted)

EARTH DIRECTED CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

   

STATUS :

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

       

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

 

(SUNSPOTS AFTER 24 UTC)

LONGITUDE next 24 h.

LATITUDE

CLASS/ CONF.*

MERIDIAN

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

IMPACT SIZE:

 
  AR 11981- 84 SUN SPOT CLUSTER              
 
  11982 32- 18° E 11° S DKC/ DAC FEB 23        
 
other active regions>
(more) by: solen.info          

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

                 
           
 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 
NUMBER POSITION*: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING MAG &remarks  
CH 605 TRANSEQU. GROWING 20140221 201402 25    
CH 604 NORTHERN SMALL/DECAYING 20140218 201402 21    
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

 
ABBREVIATIONS>
NORTH/ SOUTH POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP/ SP CH- EXT)
UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH
RECURR.= RECURRENT
T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL
 
           
NASA/ D-RAP- global (heat) impact of solar protons^  

 

 

           
 
INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX:
       
 
 
                     

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT : LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:    
PROTON FLUX DECREASING

increase after Feb 14 15/ 12 UTC and after three following SEPs on Feb 19 and 20

ELECTRON FLUX DECREASING

rising after solar events on Feb 14, 16 and 19

   
BEGIN/ END: 20140201- 10

 

 

BEGIN/ END:    

 

 

   
               

 

 

               
ACTIVE SEP EVENTS:
 

 

             
SEP ( SOLAR ENERGETIC PROTONS: PROTON IMPACT begin / duration: ELECTRON ACCUMULATION begin / duration: PHASE I (PROTONS)

PHASE II / ELECTRONS

PHASE III

 

ACTIVE SEPs:

SEP/status

3 minor SEP occured on 20140218- 20, while previous major SEP is still active      
  latestSEP: 20140107/ 6:00 UTC/ 20140107/ 20140114 (> 1000.pfu!) interfered      
    20140218- 20 / 06 UTC 20140221/ 06 UTC 20140220/ 18 UTC ongoing        
ACUMMULATION OF SUCCEEDING SEPs! > 10 MeV PROTONS > 0.1 < 1,0 pfu > 2 MeV ELECTRONS (+) > 1000 pfu electron flux exceeded 1000 pfu  
^remark: orange background means: effect is latent or pending
 

20140218: The electron accumulation very late following the strong SEP on Jan 07 (!) SEP PHASE II began on February 10 , but was again temporarely interrupted by incoming CMEs Febr 15 and 19 associated to a minor new proton SEP event on Febr. 18. SEP effects ( as described in forecast below will therefor mix.

This electron accumulation/ activity will bring - as long as it will persist- higher temperatures mainly to the Northern circumpolar regions and hemisphere for the next 1 - 2 weeks.- Major earthquakes must be expectable when/ if it finally will drop below 1000 pfu. again. Follow may daily updates and experimental earthquake forecasts!

> Proton flux increased after two following SEP events on February 19 and 20 : / ( I will later that day try to find out mor about the related solar event)>

 
             

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE IMPACTS AND SPACE WEATHER ALERTS ( NOAA):

     
 
INTEGRAL PARTICLE FLUX:   < NOAA ALERTS >

GEOMAGNETIC STORMS AND RADIATION ALERTS ( NOAA):

 
PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

TODAY:(2)

THIS DAY (2)

PAST 24 h

SOLAR ALERTS/ INFLUENCES

 

> 10 MeV PROTON FLUX

> 0.1 < 1.0

> 0.1 < 20 pfu

> 0.1 < 1 pfu.

NONE

NONE

X RAY > M 5(FLARE ACTIVITY)

 
  CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):   NONE NONE TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION  
PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

TODAY:(2)

NONE

NONE

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

 

>0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>200 < 101.000 pfu (+) >04 < 19.000 pfu (+) > 100.000 pfu

NONE

G 1

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

 

>2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>1.000 < 8.000 (+) > -xx <250 (+) > 1.000 pfu.  
x ray alerts are peaks in solar x ray emissions those occure during flare activities )
 
NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA

NO CURRENT DATA

UNKNOWN    
TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS are typical indicators for Coronal Mass Ejections ( CME)
 
(2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values  

10 cm RADIO BURSTS are typical indicators for STRONGER ERUPTIONS& Coronal Mass ejections

 
(4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu   the hp index shows how far the geomagnetic electron flux is disturbed by solar influences  

 

 

       

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

                 

STATUS:

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment /

ACE Real time plot ( > 10 MeV Protons):    

QUIET

GOES (= Geostationary operative environmental satellites) are at geostationary orbit and measure influences / impacts on the geomagnetic field
 

UNSETTLED

 
ACTIVE  
MINOR STORM  

MAJOR STORM

 
HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS
ACE ( Advanced Composition Explorer) is on and L 1 orbit at the edge between solar and geomagnetic field and measures the intensity and composition of interplanetary solar winds.
 
CME IMPACT EXPECTED  
 
 
* see also report below!
 
USAF report on geophysical activity for previous day:>>                  
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 571 km/s at 21/0633Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 20/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 21/0818Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1915 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (22 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (23 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (24 Feb). Protons greater than 10 MeV have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (22 Feb, 23 Feb).
     
                       
                     
GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -08 nT (USAF) NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 8 nT/(USAF) The Bz component is the value, the geomagnetic field density fluctuates /shifts in North/ South direction such as during CME impacts  
EFFECTIVE PROTONS NO DATA

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

           
new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report and report that represents the highest N/ S amplitude of that day    
                       
         

 

 

 

 

 

2014

MONTH:

FEBRUARY

DAY:

20

 

       

 

 

     

 

 

               

HEADLINES

2014

 

 

         

 

 

THREE MINOR SOLAR SEP EVENTS ON FEB 19 and 20:

followed one another on February 19 and 20. Out of my own observation , most of SEP remain rather invisible on Satellite images. Most experts however suggest, that these SEPs occure along with stronger solar flares.

The related solar event however was an M 2 flare around 7 UTC. As the first protons of that event arrived ( the goes plot has a bad time resolution) about at the same time ( lets say- due to EInsteins laws, at least some minutes later) the Protons speed this time ( while the Proton density this time was rather low and the duration of the entire proton storm rather short ) would have reached again almost the speed of light

< The event seems not to be very strong but hast reached its peak yet at time of this update. The NASA DRAP plot on 20140220 however shows a rather strong heat effect proton impact as typical on the Southern pole that even penetrates through the Earth interior up to the Northern pole, what means that . allthough the entire event has a minor intensity, the protons had an high speed >>

TYPICAL AND IMMIDIATELY EXPECTABLE EFFECTS OF SEP EVENTS ARE:

> minor increase of volcanic hot spot activities , mainly on the main impact longitudes

> continuing temperature anomalies with temporary rapide meltdown processes around the Southern pole and weather effects around the globe

OTHER NEWS:

(livescience/ 20140216) Under Active Volcanoes, Magma Sits in Cold Storage

Strike that iconic image of a tall, snow-capped volcano sitting atop a liquid pool of hot, molten magma. It turns out that many volcanoes prefer cold storage, a new study suggests.The findings come from a detailed study of crystals in lavas at Oregon's Mount Hood, from two different eruptions 220 years ago and about 1,500 years ago. These crystals formed inside the volcano's magma chamber, and provide a chronology and a temperature history.

The crystals told a fairy tale story — they were trapped beneath the volcano, at surprisingly cold temperatures, for as long as 100,000 years. No boiling super-villain's lair for these tiny pieces of plagioclase. Instead, the magma was so cold it was like a jar of old honey from the fridge — sticky and full of crystals. That means, most of the time, it was too sluggish to erupt. The researchers think that it took a hot kiss of fresh magma, rising from deep in Earth, to reheat the molten rock until it was thin enough to blast into the sky.

Volcanic eruption: Nigeria prepares for possible poisonous gas, flooding from Cameroun

WorldStage Newsonline-- The Federal Government of Nigeria said it has put in place measures to control the threat of poisonous gas and flooding that may likely occur as a result of eruption from the weak volcanic Lake Nyos located along the line of volcanic activities in Cameroun. The Minister of Water Resources Mrs. Sarah Ochekpe made this known while inspecting the Kashimbila multipurpose Dam site.

 
...THUS, as the latest proton boost seems to diminuish since Feb 20/ 9 UTC, THE CURRENT PREDICTION would be, that the strongest effects of this minor S 1 protons storm would be expectable in the regions of the 90° longitude EAST, what would be the region between INDONESIA, INDIA and THE RED SEA. The magmatic activities near the AFAR depression ongoing since 2005 might intensify But LIKELY also aneighbored hot spot volcanoes such as Sinabung or Kelut mightincrease their activities soon. The event seems not to be a " big deal" The event intensity is minor but the protons seem to have an very high speed ( what then counts up to the total anmount of effective impact energy)  
^X ray flux/ February 18- 20- 2014        

 

 

     
ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC      

 

 

EPICENTER/ MAP    
HIGHEST MEASURED GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE TODAY:
GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0
DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>
   

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME
M 5.0 - GREENLAND SEA - 2014-02-20 13:26:18 UTC
LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >
79.98 N ; 0.09 W
DEPTH >
2 km    

 

             

RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

NONE ( DEFAULT) REAL TIME ALERTS>
 
EARTHQUAKE REGIONS/ FROM 180° E ON WESTWARDS

TECTONICS:

FREQUENCY/ SINCE

REGION*

EPICENTER:

NUMBER

EVENT ( link to ESMC)  
ARABIC PLATE -SYRIA, IRAQ ETC. INCL. IRAN AFR><ARAB >< EUR><INDO-AUS FREQUENT

"F"

EPICENTER 01 M 4.7 - CENTRAL IRAN - 2014-02-20 04:18:36 UTC  
ATLANTIC/ SOUTH N& S -AM. >< AFRICA >< EUR. HOT SPOT / AFTER SEP

"E"

EPICENTER   M 5.1 - SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE - 2014-02-20 04:09:57 UTC  
        EPICENTER 06 M 5.0 - SOUTH ATLANTIC OCEAN - 2014-02-20 16:28:49 UTC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ GULF OF MEXICO PUERTO RICO/ CARIBIC N & S -AM. >CARIBBEAN ><NASCA ><COCOS SELDOM

"C"

EPICENTER 04 M 3.1 - DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REGION - 2014-02-20 03:35:43 UTC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ CA/ SAN ANDREAS FAULT & YELLOWSTONE SV.       EPICENTER 03 M 3.7 - CENTRAL CALIFORNIA - 2014-02-20 00:34:41 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report  
     
         
TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS
wunderground.com NO REPORTED TROPICAL STORMS TODAY      
 
         
NAME/ TRACKING LINK
EMERGED ON:
REGION
WIND SPEED
COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
   
Tropical Cyclone Guito 20140220 INDIAN OCEAN 70 MPH () 38.8° E 29.9° N 400 KM SE OFF THE COAST OF SWAZILAND
S
     
                       
NOAA/ Hurricane Center NASA/ GOES NOAA usno.navy.mil METEOALARM METEOSAT

 

 
     

 

 

 

 

             
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL DATA AND EVENTS
solar data by: solen.info NASA/
 
latest data (external sources):
SUN OBSERVERS:
     
                       
         

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

note: solar and terrestrial data are always yesterrday`s values!

20140217 >

ACTIVE REGIONS AND CORONAL HOLES (solen.info)  

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

140

 

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

460-713

FLARES >

C

04

 

SOLAR FLUX (sfu.)

156.4

 

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 8.1

 

M

01  

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

36

 

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

10- 120 nT

CME disturbance

X

 

 
                 
Today`s RSGA/ USAF - report on solar activity > IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 20/0756Z from Region 1976 (S14W82). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb, 23 Feb).  
         

 

 

     

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS INVOLVED IN MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITIES, CMEs OR SEPS ( other active regions are not posted)

EARTH DIRECTED CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

   

STATUS :

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

       

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

 

(SUNSPOTS AFTER 24 UTC)

LONGITUDE next 24 h.

LATITUDE

CLASS/ CONF.*

MERIDIAN

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

IMPACT SIZE:

 
  AR 11981- 84 SUN SPOT CLUSTER              
 
  11982 32- 18° E 11° S DKC/ DAC FEB 23 C 3.3 flare at 3:35 UTC Partial FEB 23

CANCER--

 
other active regions>
(more) by: solen.info          

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

                 
           
 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 
NUMBER POSITION*: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING MAG &remarks  
CH 604 NORTHERN SMALL/ GROWING 20140218 201402 21    
             
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

 
ABBREVIATIONS>
NORTH/ SOUTH POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP/ SP CH- EXT)
UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH
RECURR.= RECURRENT
T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL
 
           
NASA/ D-RAP- global (heat) impact of solar protons^  

 

 

           
 
INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX:
       
 
 
                     

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT : LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:    
PROTON FLUX DECREASING

increase after Feb 14 15/ 12 UTC and after three following SEPs on Feb 19 and 20

ELECTRON FLUX DECREASING

rising after solar events on Feb 14, 16 and 19

   
BEGIN/ END: 20140201- 10

 

 

BEGIN/ END:    

 

 

   
               

 

 

               
ACTIVE SEP EVENTS:
 

 

             
SEP ( SOLAR ENERGETIC PROTONS: PROTON IMPACT begin / duration: ELECTRON ACCUMULATION begin / duration: PHASE I (PROTONS)

PHASE II / ELECTRONS

PHASE III

 

ACTIVE SEPs:

SEP/status

3 minor SEP occured on 20140218- 20, while previous major SEP is still active heat effects expectable around Northern pole interfering proton and electron activities  
  latestSEP: 20140107/ 6:00 UTC/ 20140107/ 20140114 (> 1000.pfu!)   interfering proton and electron activities  
    20140218- 20 / 06 UTC ongoing (> 0.1 < 1 pfu)          
ACUMMULATION OF SUCCEEDING SEPs! > 10 MeV PROTONS > 0.1 < 1,0 pfu > 2 MeV ELECTRONS (+) < 1000 pfu electron accumulation interfered by major CME impact on Feb 15/ 19  
^remark: orange background means: effect is latent or pending
 

20140218: The electron accumulation very late following the strong SEP on Jan 07 (!) SEP PHASE II began on February 10 , but was again temporarely interrupted by incoming CMEs Febr 15 and 19 associated to a minor new proton SEP event on Febr. 18. SEP effects ( as described in forecast below will therefor mix.

This electron accumulation/ activity will bring - as long as it will persist- higher temperatures mainly to the Northern circumpolar regions and hemisphere for the next 1 - 2 weeks.- Major earthquakes must be expectable when/ if it finally will drop below 1000 pfu. again. Follow may daily updates and experimental earthquake forecasts!

> Proton flux increased after two following SEP events on February 19 and 20 : / ( I will later that day try to find out mor about the related solar event)>

 
             

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE IMPACTS AND SPACE WEATHER ALERTS ( NOAA):

     
 
INTEGRAL PARTICLE FLUX:   < NOAA ALERTS >

GEOMAGNETIC STORMS AND RADIATION ALERTS ( NOAA):

 
PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

TODAY:(2)

THIS DAY (2)

PAST 24 h

SOLAR ALERTS/ INFLUENCES

 

> 10 MeV PROTON FLUX

> 0.1 < 20 pfu

> 0.1 < 2.8 pfu

< 10 pfu.

NONE

NONE

X RAY > M 5(FLARE ACTIVITY)

 
  CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):   NONE TYPE II/ 0755 UTC TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION  
PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

TODAY:(2)

NONE

0730 UTC

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

 

>0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>04 < 19.000 pfu (+) >02 < 10.500 pfu (+) INCREASING

G 1

G 2

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

 

>2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

> -xx <250 (+) > -xx <60 (+) INCREASING  
x ray alerts are peaks in solar x ray emissions those occure during flare activities )
 
NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA

NO CURRENT DATA

UNKNOWN    
TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS are typical indicators for Coronal Mass Ejections ( CME)
 
(2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values  

10 cm RADIO BURSTS are typical indicators for STRONGER ERUPTIONS& Coronal Mass ejections

 
(4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu   the hp index shows how far the geomagnetic electron flux is disturbed by solar influences  

 

 

       

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

                 

STATUS:

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment /

ACE Real time plot ( > 10 MeV Protons):    

QUIET

GOES (= Geostationary operative environmental satellites) are at geostationary orbit and measure influences / impacts on the geomagnetic field
 

UNSETTLED

 
ACTIVE  
MINOR STORM  

MAJOR STORM

 
HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS
ACE ( Advanced Composition Explorer) is on and L 1 orbit at the edge between solar and geomagnetic field and measures the intensity and composition of interplanetary solar winds.
 
CME IMPACT EXPECTED  
 
 
* see also report below!
 
USAF report on geophysical activity for previous day:>>                  
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 743 km/s at 20/0440Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 20/0323Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 20/0507Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22 pfu at 20/0925Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (21 Feb) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb).
     
                       
                     
GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -08 nT (USAF) NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 8 nT/(USAF) The Bz component is the value, the geomagnetic field density fluctuates /shifts in North/ South direction such as during CME impacts  
EFFECTIVE PROTONS NO DATA

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

           
new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report and report that represents the highest N/ S amplitude of that day    
                       
         
   

 

 

             
LATEST SOLAR EVENTS & REPORTS: 20140218: As the typical feature of the Sun- observed since end of 2013, all flare activities continue to occure in one single or two aneighbored and interactive large activity regions, while the rest of the disc is almost calm. While the last active group AR 11976 - 11977 will rotate out on Feb 21, another active group of three active regions AR 11981- 83 appeared on the Eastern limb on Feb 17/ 18 . Both regions produced minor flares, those were associated to three minor SEPs on February 18, 19 and 20  

THREE MINOR SEPS ( solar accelerated protons) on FEB 18, 29, and 20 :

             

CME (DATE)

CME AT (UTC)   Satellite Date and Time >              

20140218

after 2 UTC
  SDO/ AIA STEREO/ A SDO/ AIA SoHO GOES PROTON flux: GOES X-ray flux:  
TRACKING NR.:

03/ 14, a

   
ACTIVE REGION:

NONE

   
DIRECTION/ EARTH FULLY HALO    

SUN COORDINATES:

   
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT    

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

   
filament eruption associated to SEP ( > 10 MeV Protons > 1 pfu) none   20140214/ 12:39 UTC 20140218/ 06:09 UTC 20140218/ 02:11 UTC 20140218/ 05:18 integral Proton Flux increased after solar event on Feb 18 ^x-ray bg. flux again near C level on FEB 16- 18- 2014  

REPORT ON LATEST EARTH DIRECTED CME OR SEP >

^^ February 18: A large CME was observed first believed to be only a filament eruption in the southeast quadrant. GOES measured an slight increase in integral proton flux about 4 hours after the event after 20140218/ 6 UTC ( what explains why the heat signature of the events appears so strong on STEREO infrared imager) The CME could reach Earth on February 20 or 21
 

CME (DATE)

CME AT (UTC)   Satellite Date and Time >              

20140220

    SDO/ AIA STEREO/ A SDO/ AIA SoHO GOES PROTON flux: GOES X-ray flux:  
TRACKING NR.: 03/14, b          
ACTIVE REGION:

11981- 84

   
DIRECTION/ EARTH      

SUN COORDINATES:

   
32° E 16° S    

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

   
SEP event ( > 10 MeV Protons > 10 pfu) none   20140220/ 03:39 UTC   20140220/ 08:11 UTC        

REPORT ON LATEST EARTH DIRECTED CME OR SEP >

its mostly not possible to localise exactly where the source of an SEP really is.Its believed by the most experts, that SEPs are emitted with flares . IF so, only the event at 3:39 UTC in complex cluster AR 11981- 84 can have created the SEP.However, proton flux increased after 7 Uhr above 10 pfu. prior to a second CME in AR 11967 at 8:11 UTC. Proton flux weas already decreasing again during the day
 
   

 

 

         
             

ALERT LEVEL

         
SEP INFLUENCE (-) ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES TODAY

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

REMARKS AND/ OR PROBABILITY  

20 FEBRUARY 2014

 

M 5.5 > 7.0

1- 3 (CME and minor SEP effects)  

21 FEBRUARY 2014

 

M 5.5 6.5

1- 2 (rising electrons)  

23 FEBRUARY 2014

 

M 5.5 > 6.0

1- 2 (CME and minor SEP effects)  

ABOUT LATENCIES:

   

INFLUENCES:

* latent potential for earthquakes with magnitudes higher than M 8.0!  

EFFECTING AS >

INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS(/EARTHQUAKES: HIGHER  
       

NOTES: ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

(In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 
                   

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

background influence:

SEP on (20140107, 20140218- 20)

EFFECTIVE CMEs/ int. Nrs. >

PROTON IMPACTS
 

ALERT LEVEL

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS: LATEST CME IMPACT REGIONS/ =EXPECTABLE EVENT REGIONS  

SEP INFLUENCE (-)+ rising electrons

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES AND TREMORS PRIMARY REGIONS IMPACT PLATE BOUNDARIES (longitudenal):

Latest CME ( SEP impact longitudes

 

INDUCED CURRENTS (+) INDONESIA- AFRICAN EAST COAST REGIONS MAINLY AFFECTED BY LATEST PROTON EVENT (SEP) 90°- 45° EAST  
RADIO BLACKOUTS REGIONS AFFFECTED (ALSO) BY PREVIOUS BUT STILL ACTIVE IMPACTS: