-----------------------

 

note: with elder machines the page will need some time to load!

alien- homepage.de- Earth quake statistics- -SUN SPOT ACTIVITY- 11- years solar cycle- last update: JANUATY- 07- 2014- -07:00 UTC copyright: reserved

background image: Aurora Borealis /COMMONS / wikipedia
open source earthquake forecast project created and provided by: alien-homepage.de-

note: On November 01 2013 I introduced a new format of this page , which will make it easier to load and watch for people with low resolution monitors-

According to NASA, this 24th. 11 year sun spot cycle has probably a " twin peak"- the second in 2015. This projekt therefore will be prolongued.
 
2012/ 13 - MAXIMUM OF 11- YEAR SOLAR CYCLE
SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG

ARCHIVE JANUARY - 2014

NASA STEREO BEACON

alien-homepage.de / internal links:

TRANSLATORS
recommended: install Google toolbar with integrated translator!
PROJECT CENTRAL:

PAGES RELATED TO THIS SOLAR/TERRESTRIAL PROJECT>
ws
>HAVE YOU ANY COMMENT?
               
SOHO REALTIME current view on the Sun
SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG/ ARCHIVES:
2014 > JAN                    
2013 >

2012 >

2011 >
2010 >
NOTE: I WILL INTRODUCE A NEW ARCHIVE SYSTEM IN 2012. CLICK ON THE BUTTON (right) FOR THE NEW ARCHIVE DIRECTORY! >

Note: Due to the high data amount in these monthly archives, I am currently trying to improve this by putting the single archives into collapsible panels.

Also I will split the monthly archive into 4 weekly ones. click on the following tabs to open the collapsible panels. You can report to my blog, if you should still experience problems when loading this page.

click here to open panel with graphics, volcano maps , earthquake statistic- JANUARY 2014
   
ALL KNOWN VOLCANOES WORLDWIDE, WEEKLY ACTIVITY UPDATES, WEBCAMS, and much more on my "REGIONAL VOLCANO " MAPS:
INTERNAL MAPS: click on the images or links below to get to my large regional maps, where you find all volcanoes around the world with descriptions , webcams and much more such as ancients sites! . Weekly regular activity updates, special earthquakes events with many functions

world volcano map 1.0

world volcano map version 2.0

Europe and Western Asia Africa and Arabic peninsula Central America and Mexico South America- Northern part South America- Southern part Central America and Mexico Northern America Kamchatka peninsula Japan region Indonesia and Philippines Australia and Southern Pacific

 

SPACECRAFTS:
SoHO
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
SDO /AIA
Solar Dynamics Observatory
STEREO
Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory
GOES
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites

ACE

 
 
 
 
 
 
Advanced Composition Explorer

^^ internal Earthquake statistics- with Sun activity curves : green = SUNSPOT NUMBER, Pink= SOLAR FLUX, blue= PLANETARY A INDEX- right image: planetary constellations in March 2013

click here to see some of the paradox observations made during that solar cycle first possibly by observatory sopacecrafts: : CORONAL HOLES THOSE REAPPEAR DURING SEVERAL SOLAR ROTATION PERIODS ON THE SAME HELIOGRAPHIC POSITION

 

VIDEOS/ REPORTS, SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL EVENTS- JANUARY 2014:

VIDEOS/ REPORTS OF THE WEEK

   
 

 

 

   
 

 

 

 
MAJOR EARTH DIRECTED CMEs :
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       

 

 

 

click here to open and close collapsible panel with the archived "SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG" JANUARY 22- 31- 2014

changes/ January 25- 2014:

2013, after 2 years after the second major> M 9 Earthquake had taken place within on decade and after two years of statistic evaluation and comparation of solar and terestrial data, it vecame clear , that socalled SEPS would be the solar feature I was looking , being among those solar featuires, that indeed have related and signiciant geophysical effects.

Now in early 2014, the peak off the sun spots cycle seems to be over and related activity visibly have decreased . I dont expect many stronger and significant solar events for the next half year.

Recently I decided, to close the ongoing solar and terrestrial documentary at this point in this form , as it was made until now., whith complete data and event evaluationas as its required for any scientific work . This I did to get this project to a point, that its results would be available and evaluable for further report and can be also a basic for further scientics research

Nevertheless as observations and evaluations have shown , that esp. the socalled SEPs ,this documentary has focussed on, as being the strongest and most geoeffective known type of solar event) do happen MOST frequently during the solar max, but are als present in the same strength all 11 years in between but just in lower number.

So I will continue to watch over all these solar data and event and try to provide a full report and complete coverage in time if any furthe major event should take place ..

so the solar teerrestrial blog will be continued in another simplified and limited form:

> Basic solar and geophyical parameters will not be noted nor archived on a daiy baisis but only if related to major events .( those archives can be found at solen,.info)

> I will further maintain basic but only short information on solar activity and terrestrial event if possible on a daily basis.

> The experimental forecast on this page her , based on this research will be continued and at least updated if major events are expectable . But I will nor archives them anymore .

Also I will continue to document and report significant solar and terrestrial event as before but not on a daily basis,with an long but mainly empty daily update, containg all major solar data but only if major events take place , those have significant effects on the earth and might be a threat to its civilisations , its nature and and the life on it.

Thanks to all interested ones, who one or frequently visited this page. Just be welcome at any time to get latest news of this exciting view on the world as possible today, what goes on and how it changes!

H. Hummel Munich/ Germany

 
   
       

 

 

 

             

2014

MONTH:

JANUARY

DAY:

31

 

 

     

HEADLINES

2014

JANUARY

 

         

CANARY ISLANDS/ EL HIERRO-MOUNT TEIDE (TENERIFFE) : UPCOMING SURFACE ERUPTION?

Evento Fecha Hora(GMT)* Latitud  Longitud  Prof.
(km)
Int. Máx. Mag. Tipo Mag. (**) Localización Info
1256544 01/02/2014 09:23:43 27.7558 -18.0617 3   2.3 mbLg W FRONTERA.IHI [+]
1256396 01/02/2014 02:13:54 27.8160 -18.1902 32   1.8 mbLg NW FRONTERA.IHI [+]
1256392 31/01/2014 23:36:31 27.7325 -18.0111 12   1.7 mbLg SW FRONTERA.IHI [+]
1256094 29/01/2014 19:44:44 28.1003 -16.0180 39   3.1 mbLg ATLÁNTICO-CANARIAS [+]
1255568 26/01/2014 06:21:22 28.2902 -16.2683 32   2.5 mbLg ATLÁNTICO-CANARIAS [+]
1255461 25/01/2014 11:04:26 27.7209 -17.9866 11   2.0 mbLg NW EL PINAR.IHI [+]
1255301 24/01/2014 08:31:31 27.7985 -18.1128 8   1.8 mbLg NW FRONTERA.IHI [+]
 

update on the volcanic activity on the Canary Islands- February 01 2014 (internal by alien-homepage- visit also my google blog on the Canary hot spot activity!)

That doesn`t look good! " El discreto ( or the "monster in the depth") has yet made another hic hoc - the third since yesterday, after it had remained absolutely silent for more than one week!

The first quake yesterday was from a depth of 12 km, the second today in 35 km (below sea surface) The third today at 09:32 UTC was with 2.8 so far the strongest and its with a depth of 3 km the first measured since the end of the 2011 surface eruption that was in less than 10 km!source: IGN/ Spain

DOES THE MAGMA NO COME UP TO THE SURFACE ANYWHERE ON OR IN BETWEEN THE ISLANDS? We have just to follow they simple logic of the experts to say: POSSIBLY YES! OR RATHER LIKELY? So lets wait and see: If really now magma has begun finally to rise up to the surface, it will certainly have to "bomb" its way free to more of the elder volcanic channels and structures in the formation with some more explosions . These explosions would be measurable as earthquake then and can be located from which depth they come and from which location, before any eruption would occure anywhere and maybe even just on the ocean floor . So its a bit too early to state this. I will observe, what happens next and check out, what statement. You can follow the events on AVCAN`s facebook site or my updates in my extra google blog on the volcanic activity on the Canaries.

(BBC/ 20140201) Italy battles floods as bad weather batters Europe

Areas of Italy and France are on flood alert as heavy rain brings chaos to parts of Europe. Hundreds of people were forced to evacuate their homes in the Italian city of Pisa as the Arno river threatened to burst its banks on Friday. High seas are expected to cause widespread flooding along France's Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, deep snow drifts left dozens of people stranded in Serbia. Local officials declared a state of emergency and deployed rescue teams to help travellers trapped in their vehicles. Snow storms and strong winds have been sweeping across Eastern Europe....read more...

read also: (euronews- 20140201) Floods in Italy

 
^latest earthquakes around El Hierro and between Tenerife and Gran Canaria ( IGN/ Spain) ^The 3.2 quake today is the first quake from a depth of less than 10 km ( 3 km)since the first (and only ) new surface eruption in 2011/12 . The ultimate sign for an upcoming larger eruption on the Canary Islands?

 

 
 

(Jakarta POst/ 20140201) 14 presumed dead, three critically injured as Mt. Sinabung spews ash

At least 14 people were killed, while three others were severely injured when Mount Sinabung in Karo regency, North Sumatra, spewed ash again on Saturday. As of Saturday evening, the bodies of the 14 fatalities have all been transported from a number of areas in Suka Meriah village, which is located within a 3-kilometer radius of the volcano, while three others had yet to be found, Mt. Sinabung Eruption Media Center head Jhonson Tarigan told The Jakarta Post. Rescuers, he added, had to stop the evacuation process due to fears of more eruptions. Currently, the evacuation zone is between 5 and 7 km on the southeast slope of the volcano.

   
ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC      
  EPICENTER/ MAP    
HIGHEST MEASURED GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE TODAY:
GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0
DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>
   

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME >
M 5.0 - NEAR EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA - 2014-01-31 16:39:05 UTC
LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >
54.71 N ; 159.64 E
DEPTH >
160 km    

 

             

RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

NONE ( DEFAULT) REAL TIME ALERTS>
 
   
EARTHQUAKE REGIONS/ FROM 180° E ON WESTWARDS

TECTONICS:

FREQUENCY/ SINCE

REGION*

EPICENTER:

NUMBER

EVENT ( link to ESMC)  
STRONG EARTHQUAKE SWARM GREECE MEDITERRANEAN SEA REGION (ALL) AFRICA >< EURASIA FREQUENT

"E"

EPICENTER 14 X > M 2.0 M 4.5 - GREECE - 2014-01-31 12:45:40 UTC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ CA/ SAN ANDREAS FAULT & YELLOWSTONE SV. N-AM./ SAN ANDREAS FAULT >< J. DE FUCA>< PACIFIC 20140108

"C"

EPICENTER 5 x > M 2.0 M 3.0 - OKLAHOMA - 2014-01-31 15:52:58 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report  

 

 

       
TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS
wunderground.com          
 
         
                 
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
             
NAME/ TRACKING LINK
EMERGED ON:
REGION
WIND SPEED
COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
   
Tropical Depression Kajiki 20140130 WESTERN PACIFIC 35 MPH () 123.9° E 10.8° N
ABOVE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES
W

TD

   
               
     

 

 

               
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL DATA AND EVENTS
solar data by: solen.info NASA/
 
latest data (external sources):
SUN OBSERVERS:
     
                       
         

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

note: solar and terrestrial data are always yesterrday`s values!

20140130

ACTIVE REGIONS AND CORONAL HOLES (solen.info)  

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

87

 

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

277-368

FLARES >

C

15

 

SOLAR FLUX (sfu.)

165. 7

 

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

C 1.0

 

M

01

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

01

 

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

80- 110 nT

 

X

 

 
                 
Today`s RSGA/ USAF - report on solar activity > IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 31/1542Z from Region 1968 (N10E29). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Feb, 02 Feb, 03 Feb).  
         

 

 

     

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS INVOLVED IN MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITIES, CMEs OR SEPS ( other active regions are not posted)

EARTH DIRECTED CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

   

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

       

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

CLASS/ CONF.*

MERIDIAN

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

IMPACT SIZE:

 
 

11967

31° -17° E

12° S

FKC

FEB- 02

       
 
 

11968

29° - 15° W

10° N

EAI/ ESC

FEB- 02

15:42 

HALO

FEB- 03

---

 

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

                 
               

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

   
NUMBER POSITION*: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING MAG &remarks  

CHUNN.

NORTH SMALL 201401 20140130    
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

   
ABBREVIATIONS>
NORTH/ SOUTH POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP/ SP CH- EXT)
UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH
RECURR.= RECURRENT
T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL
   
                     
LATEST SOLAR EVENTS & REPORTS: CME & SEP EVENTS SATELLITE IMAGES > SOHO/ LASCO C3: STEREO AHEAD COR 2 VARIABLE SDO/ AIA SDO/ AIA GOES X-ray flux/ January 28- 30- 2014  
20140128: X ray flux significantly increased above C level. Two, meanwhile active, aneighbored regions had rotated in on January 26, from those AR 11967 was very active already on Jan 26 and produced C and 5 flares since then like a machine gun. Many of these flares are associated to CMEs. So the earth remains inavertibly in their path while AR 11967 rotates further westwards and will come on Feb 02 in an optimal Earth facing position. The M7 event on Jan 30 produced a first (earth directed) halo CME. All these CMEs will be summarised under the tracking number 01/ 14, a- x as" CME cluster" event .

 
      Satellite Date and Time > 20140130/ 17:54 UTC 20140130/ 21:24 UTC HALO: 20140130/ 20.30 UTC 20140131/ 16:09 2014010201/ 07:24 UTC < SDO had a transmission blackout from Jan 29/ 20:43 UTC- Jan 30/ 17:41 UTC!  
   

 

 

               
INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX
         
 
                     

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT : LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:    
PROTON FLUX HIGHTENED

rising on 20140120 after 14 UTC ( event not evaluated yet)

ELECTRON FLUX RISING

rising on 20140120 after 14 UTC/ back to normal on 20140122

   
BEGIN/ END:  

 

 

BEGIN/ END:    

 

 

   

 

 

           
     

 

 

         
SEP ( SOLAR ENERGETIC PROTONS: PROTON IMPACT begin / duration: ELECTRON ACCUMULATION begin / duration: event log:
orange background means: effect is latent or pending
 

ACTIVE SEPs:

latestSEP:

20140107/ 6:00 UTC/ 20140107/ 20140114 latent   PHASE I (PROTONS)

PHASE II / ELECTRONS

PHASE III
   
ACUMMULATION OF SUCCEEDING SEPs! > 10 MeV PROTONS +/-o.1 pfu. (-) > 2 MeV ELECTRONS (+) > 1000 pfu the electron flux is still interfered by a continuing hightened proton flux in the interplanetary solar magnetic field

 

 
   

 

 

             

TODAY`S SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE IMPACTS

             
INTEGRAL PARTICLE FLUX:   < NOAA ALERTS >

GEOMAGNETIC STORMS AND RADIATION ALERTS ( NOAA):

 
PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

TODAY:(2)

THIS DAY (2)

PAST 24 h

SOLAR ALERTS/ INFLUENCES

 

> 10 MeV PROTON FLUX

+/- 0.1 pfu

+/- 0.1 pfu

+/- 0.1 pfu.

NONE

NONE

X RAY > M 5(FLARE ACTIVITY)

 
  CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):   TYPE II/ IV NONE TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION  
PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

TODAY:(2)

NONE

NONE

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

 

>0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>5.000 < 10.000 pfu (+) >1.500 < 10.000 pfu (+) proton infl.

NONE

NONE

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

 

>2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>04 < 40 (-) >08 < 50 (-) proton infl.  
x ray alerts are peaks in solar x ray emissions those occure during flare activities )
 
NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA

NO CURRENT DATA

UNKNOWN    
TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS are typical indicators for Coronal Mass Ejections ( CME)
 
(2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values  

10 cm RADIO BURSTS are typical indicators for STRONGER ERUPTIONS& Coronal Mass ejections

 
(4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu   the hp index shows how far the geomagnetic electron flux is disturbed by solar influences  

 

 

       
       

 

 

 

             

2014

MONTH:

JANUARY

DAY:

30

 

 

     
       

HEADLINES

2014

JANUARY

 

         
   

( the guardian/ 20140131) Sellafield nuclear site has elevated levels of radioactivity

The Sellafield nuclear site is being operated with a reduced number of staff following the detection overnight of elevated levels of radioactivity....The unusual radiation reading at the perimeter fence had been detected at 2am, he said. But his members at Sellafield told him that they were not aware of any problems at any of the 1,000 nuclear facilities on the site. "There's a possibility that this is a faulty air sampler," he said.A local newspaper, News and Star, reported that around 8,000 workers were affected. A Decc spokeswoman was unable to confirm that figure.. A Decc spokeswoman was unable to confirm that figure.....read more...

(BBC/ 20140131) UK floods: South West and Midlands braced as rain pours

High tides, rain and strong winds continue to cause problems as south-west England and the Midlands are braced for floods. The Environment Agency (EA) has issued nine severe flood warnings, which mean there is a "danger to life". Numerous lower-level flood warnings and alerts have been issued across England and Wales, mainly in southern areas. There are also Met Office warnings of heavy rain for southern England, south Wales and parts of Northern Ireland...Flooding is "expected" at high tides on Friday evening, Saturday morning and afternoon, Sunday morning and Monday morning....read more...

 
         
  EPICENTER/ MAP    
HIGHEST MEASURED GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE TODAY:
GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0
DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>
   

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME >
M 5.0 - OFF COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA - 2014-01-30 00:02:55 UTC
LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >
41.83 N ; 127.02 W
DEPTH >
10 km    

 

             

RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

NONE ( DEFAULT) REAL TIME ALERTS>
 
   
EARTHQUAKE REGIONS/ FROM 180° E ON WESTWARDS

TECTONICS:

FREQUENCY/ SINCE

REGION*

EPICENTER:

NUMBER

EVENT ( link to ESMC)  
STRONG EARTHQUAKE SWARM GREECE MEDITERRANEAN SEA REGION (ALL) AFRICA >< EURASIA FREQUENT

"E"

EPICENTER 09 M 4.6 - GREECE - 2014-01-30 11:06:18 UTC  
CONTINENTAL EURASIA INCLUDING ASIA N-AM. ><EUR->< AFR.><PAC> SELDOM

"E"/"F

EPICENTER   M 4.7 - SOUTHWESTERN PAKISTAN - 2014-01-30 16:01:42 UTC  
GERMANY / quakes near to EIFEL VOLCANIC FIELD EURASIA (volcanic) SELDOM

"E"

EPICENTER 01 M 2.2 - GERMANY - 2014-01-30 11:52:30 UTC  
        EPICENTER 01 M 1.9 - GERMANY - 2014-01-29 05:55:23 UTC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ CA/ SAN ANDREAS FAULT & YELLOWSTONE SV. N-AM./ SAN ANDREAS FAULT >< J. DE FUCA>< PACIFIC 20140108

"C"

EPICENTER: 05 M 3.2 - NEVADA - 2014-01-30 07:00:00 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report  
     
     

 

 

               
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL DATA AND EVENTS
solar data by: solen.info NASA/
 
latest data (external sources):
SUN OBSERVERS:
     
                       
         

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

note: solar and terrestrial data are always yesterrday`s values!

20140130

ACTIVE REGIONS AND CORONAL HOLES (solen.info)  

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

112

 

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

326-374

FLARES >

C

09

 

SOLAR FLUX (sfu.)

160. 5

 

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

C 1.2

 

M

03

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

03

 

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

45- 95 nT

 

X

 

 
                 
Today`s RSGA/ USAF - report on solar activity > IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at 30/1611Z from Region 1967 (S14E41). It also produced a Type II (2161 km/s) radio emission, a Tenflare (220 sfu) and a coronal mass ejection which may have an Earth-directed component. Analysis is underway. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.  
         

 

 

     
SOLAR EVENT REPORTS: CME & SEP EVENTS SATELLITE IMAGES > SOHO/ LASCO C3: STEREO AHEAD COR 2 VARIABLE SDO/ AIA SDO/ AIA GOES X-ray flux/ January 28- 30- 2014  
20140128: X ray flux significantly increased above C level. Two, meanwhile active, aneighbored regions had rotated in on January 26, from those AR 11967 was very active already on Jan 26 and produced C and 5 flares since then like a machine gun. Many of these flares are associated to CMEs. So the earth remains inavertibly in their path while AR 11967 rotates further westwards and will come on Feb 02 in an optimal Earth facing position. The M7 event on Jan 30 produced a first (earth directed) halo CME. All these CMEs will be summarised under the tracking number 48, a- x as a " CME cluster" event .

 
      Satellite Date and Time > 20140130/ 17:54 UTC 20140130/ 21:24 UTC HALO: 20140130/ 20.30 UTC 20140129/ 15:54 UTC M7 / 20140130/ 17:41 UTC < SDO had a transmission blackout from Jan 29/ 20:43 UTC- Jan 30/ 17:41 UTC!  
     

 

 

           

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS INVOLVED IN MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITIES, CMEs OR SEPS ( other active regions are not posted)

EARTH DIRECTED CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

   

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

CLASS/ CONF.*

MERIDIAN

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

IMPACT SIZE:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 
 

11967

45° -31° E

12° S

EKI/ FKC

FEB- 02

17:41 UTC

HALO

FEB- 01

GEMINI

 
 

11968

42° - 28° W

10° N

EAO

FEB- 02

---

---

---

---

 

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

SOUTH WEST QUADRANT       01: 28 partially FEB- 01
LEO
   
                       

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

   
NUMBER POSITION*: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING MAG &remarks
ABBREVIATIONS>
 

CHUNN.

NORTH SMALL 201401 20140130  
NORTH/ SOUTH POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP/ SP CH- EXT)
 
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH
         
     

 

   
RECURR.= RECURRENT
T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL
   

 

 

           
                   

 

 

            ACE- EPAM: REAL TIME INTERPLANETARY PARTICLE FLUXES ( Jan 24- 31- 2014):  
INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX
         
 
                     

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT : LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:    
PROTON FLUX HIGHTENED

rising on 20140120 after 14 UTC ( event not evaluated yet)

ELECTRON FLUX RISING

rising on 20140120 after 14 UTC/ back to normal on 20140122

   
BEGIN/ END:  

 

 

BEGIN/ END:    

 

 

   

 

 

                   
     

 

 

         
SEP ( SOLAR ENERGETIC PROTONS: PROTON IMPACT begin / duration: ELECTRON ACCUMULATION begin / duration: event log:    

ACTIVE SEPs:

latestSEP:

20140107/ 6:00 UTC/ 20140107/ 20140114 latent   PHASE I (PROTONS)

PHASE II / ELECTRONS

PHASE III
   
ACUMMULATION OF SUCCEEDING SEPs! > 10 MeV PROTONS +/-o.1 pfu. (-) > 2 MeV ELECTRONS (+) > 1000 pfu the electron flux is still interfered by a continuing hightened proton flux in the interplanetary solar magnetic field

 

 
   

 

 

             

TODAY`S SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE IMPACTS

             
INTEGRAL PARTICLE FLUX:   < NOAA ALERTS >

GEOMAGNETIC STORMS AND RADIATION ALERTS ( NOAA):

 
PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

TODAY:(2)

THIS DAY (2)

PAST 24 h

SOLAR ALERTS/ INFLUENCES

 

> 10 MeV PROTON FLUX

+/- 0.1 pfu

+/- 0.1 pfu

+/- 0.1 pfu.

NONE

1611 UTC

X RAY > M 5(FLARE ACTIVITY)

 
  CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):   NONE 1601 UTC TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION  
PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

TODAY:(2)

NONE

1605 UTC

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

 

>0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>1.500 < 10.000 pfu (+) >700 < 8.000 pfu (+) proton infl.

NONE

NONE

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

 

>2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>08 < 50 (-) >06 < 30 (-) proton infl.  
x ray alerts are peaks in solar x ray emissions those occure during flare activities )
 
NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA

NO CURRENT DATA

UNKNOWN    
TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS are typical indicators for Coronal Mass Ejections ( CME)
 
(2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values  

10 cm RADIO BURSTS are typical indicators for STRONGER ERUPTIONS& Coronal Mass ejections

 
(4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu   the hp index shows how far the geomagnetic electron flux is disturbed by solar influences  
     

 

 

 

 

 

 

             

2014

MONTH:

JANUARY

DAY:

29

 

 

     
     

 

 

               

HEADLINES

2014

JANUARY

 

         
 

 

( floodlist.com/ 20140123 coninued...) Ongoing Rains continue to cause flooding in Ecuador and Peru

Ecuador Heavy downpours during the night of 20 January 2014 flooded several towns in four cantons of Los Rios, Ecuador, causing the collapse of two houses, but fortunately no fatalities were reported, unlike earlier this year. Obsolete and collapsed sewer systems have been blamed for the flooding of streets and residents are concerned about the polluted water entering their homes and businesses.

Peru In Peru, following flooding in Cusco at the beginning of 2014, heavy rains have again been falling in southern and central Peru since mid-January, causing more flooding and landslides. In the department of Cusco two people were killed on 20 January when the river Huaro overflowed and destroyed their home

 
^Stanford scientists use 'virtual earthquakes' to forecast Los Angeles quakes

^Landslide in Junín, Peru – Photo by Ministerio de Salud, Peru

     
       
TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS
                 
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
             
NAME/ TRACKING LINK
EMERGED ON:
REGION
WIND SPEED
COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
   
Tropical Cyclone Eleven 20140127 WESTERN PACIFIC 50 MPH (+) 148.5° E 17.6° N
200 KM oFF THE COAST OF QUEENSLAND( NE AUSTRALIA
W
TS
   
                       
NOAA/ Hurricane Center NASA/ GOES NOAA usno.navy.mil METEOALARM METEOSAT

reports taken from:

 
                       

 

 

     
Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC      
  EPICENTER/ MAP    
HIGHEST MEASURED GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE TODAY:
GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0
DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>
   

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME >
M 5.7 - TARAPACA, CHILE - 2014-01-29 10:01:51 UTC
LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >
18.62 S ; 69.41 W
DEPTH >
124 km    

 

             

RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

NONE ( DEFAULT) REAL TIME ALERTS>
 
   
EARTHQUAKE REGIONS/ FROM 180° E ON WESTWARDS

TECTONICS:

FREQUENCY/ SINCE

REGION*

EPICENTER:

NUMBER

EVENT ( link to ESMC)  
EASTERN PACIFIC/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC. PAC. >< INDO- AUS FREQUENT

"B"

EPICENTER 01 M 5.5 - SOLOMON ISLANDS - 2014-01-29 00:32:29 UTC  
STRONG EARTHQUAKE SWARM GREECE MEDITERRANEAN SEA REGION (ALL) AFRICA >< EURASIA FREQUENT

"E"

EPICENTER 39 M 3.7 - GREECE - 2014-01-29 01:32:29 UTC  
CANARY ISLANDS REGION N & S -AM. >< AFR >< EURASIA HOT SPOT / AFTER SEP( DEC 26)

"E"

EPICENTER   M 2.7 - CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION - 2014-01-29 19:44:43 UTC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ CA/ SAN ANDREAS FAULT & YELLOWSTONE SV. N-AM./ SAN ANDREAS FAULT >< J. DE FUCA>< PACIFIC 20140108

"C"

EPICENTER 07 M 4.0 - NEVADA - 2014-01-29 01:30:27 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report  

 

 

       
NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES
       
 
This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >
         
volcano-discovery/gadget

note: this report does NOT necessarely represent all currently global active volcanoes!

   

 

report by:

GVP  

 

Smithsonian Institution / USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report

Activity for the week of 22 January-28 January 2014

The Smithsonian page is updated on Wednesdays. Please see the GVP Home Page for news of the latest significant activity.

 

NEW ACTIVITIES/ UPDATES:

ONGOING ACTIVITIES/ UPDATES:

 
Asosan Kyushu (Japan) New
Sinabung Indonesia New
Chirinkotan Kuril Islands (Russia) Ongoing
Chirpoi Kuril Islands (Russia) Ongoing
Dukono Halmahera (Indonesia) Ongoing
Etna Sicily (Italy) Ongoing
Gorely Southern Kamchatka (Russia) Ongoing
Karymsky Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) Ongoing
Kilauea Hawaiian Islands (USA) Ongoing
Nishino-shima Japan Ongoing
Reventador Ecuador Ongoing
Sakurajima Kyushu (Japan) Ongoing
Santa María Guatemala Ongoing
Shiveluch Central Kamchatka (Russia) Ongoing
Suwanosejima Ryukyu Islands (Japan) Ongoing
White Island North Island (New Zealand) Ongoing
 
  The Smithsonian was closed due to a United States federal government shutdown on Oct- 02- 2013. On October 21- 2013, Global Volcanism Program staff could return to work : First new vulcanism update was issued on Oct- 23- 2013  
     
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL DATA AND EVENTS
solar data by: solen.info NASA/
 
         

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

note: solar and terrestrial data are always yesterrday`s values!

20140128

ACTIVE REGIONS AND CORONAL HOLES (solen.info)  

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

96

 

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

360-473

FLARES >

C

14

SOLAR FLUX (sfu.)

156.4

 

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

C 1.0

 

M

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

06

 

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

49- 105 nT

minor CMEs

X

 

               
Today`s RSGA/ USAF - report on solar activity > IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M2 event observed at 28/2216Z from Region 1967 (S12E67). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Jan, 31 Jan, 01 Feb).
         

 

 

   
SOLAR EVENT REPORTS: CME & SEP EVENTS SATELLITE IMAGES > SOHO/ LASCO C3: STEREO AHEAD COR 2 STEREO BEHIND SDO/ AIA SDO/ AIA GOES X-ray flux/ January 28- 30- 2014
20140128: X ray flux significantly increased above C level. Two, meanwhile active, aneighbored regions had rotated in on January 26, from those AR 11967 was very active already on Jan 26 and produced 3 C and 5 M flares on January 28. The strongest was classified as M4.9/ 1F.Several of these flares were associated to major CMEs, those headed of into South eastern direction and had no directly Earth directed parts.AR 11968 produced only one C flare SoHo images suggest an associated particle flux- likely protons - One sychronous flare in AR on Jan 29 at 1:29 UTC appeared to be fully halo on SoHo. .

      Satellite Date and Time >   20140129/ 09:09 UTC 20140128/ 20:14 UTC 20140129/ 15:54 UTC M7 / 20140130/ 17:41 UTC AR 11967 produced an M 7 flare  
     

 

 

           

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS INVOLVED IN MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITIES, CMEs OR SEPS ( other active regions are not posted)

EARTH DIRECTED CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

   

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

CLASS/ CONF.*

MERIDIAN

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

IMPACT SIZE:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 
 

11967

59° -45° E

12° S

EKI/ FKC

FEB- 01

---

---

---

---

 
 

11968

56° - 42° W

10° N

EAO

FEB- 01

---

---

---

---

 

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

SOUTH WEST QUADRANT       01: 28 partially FEB- 01
LEO
   

 

 

 

         

LATEST AND CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL EVENTS

LAST UPDATE

20140130        
           

 

 

 

 

 
CH High Speed Solar winds (HSS) SOLAR ACTIVITY X RAY > M 5 /R 1 G1 GEOMAGNETIC STORM

CME IMPACT

APPROACHING CMEs : 01?

ACTIVE SEP / PHASE II

SEP event log>
 
        e      

SEP EVENTS>

ACTIVE SEP

> 10 MeV PROTONS +/-o.1 pfu. (-) > 2 MeV ELECTRONS (+) < 1000 pfu (+)

ELECTRONS ARE ACTIVE ABOVE NORTHERN POLE

   
ACUMMULATION OF SUCCEEDING SEPs! 20140107/ 6:00 UTC/ 20140107/ 20140114      
 

^begin

^end

             

TODAY`S SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE IMPACTS

               
               
INTEGRAL PARTICLE FLUX:   NOAA ALERTS:    

 

 
PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

TODAY:(2)

THIS DAY (2)

PAST 24 h

SOLAR ALERTS/ INFLUENCES

 

> 10 MeV PROTON FLUX

+/- 0.1 pfu

+/- 0.1 pfu

+/- 0.1 pfu.

NONE

NONE

X RAY > M 5(FLARE ACTIVITY)

 
  CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):   NONE 0446 TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION  
PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

TODAY:(2)

NONE

1936 UTC

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

 

>0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>700 < 8.000 pfu (+) >1.000 < 5.000 pfu (-) proton infl.

NONE

NONE

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

 

>2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>06 < 30 (-) >09 < 40 (-) proton infl.  
x ray alerts are peaks in solar x ray emissions those occure during flare activities )
 
NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA

NO CURRENT DATA

UNKNOWN    
TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS are typical indicators for Coronal Mass Ejections ( CME)
 
(2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values  

10 cm RADIO BURSTS are typical indicators for STRONGER ERUPTIONS& Coronal Mass ejections

 
(4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu   the hp index shows how far the geomagnetic electron flux is disturbed by solar influences  

 

 

 

 

2014

MONTH:

JANUARY

DAY:

28

 

 

     
     

 

 

               

HEADLINES

2014

JANUARY

 

         
 

 

(Jol:news/ 20140127) Greece declares emergency after quake

Athens - Greece's government announced emergency relief for the residents of the Ionian islands of Kefalonia and Ithaki Monday, a day after they were hit by a strong quake which caused damage and slightly injured seven people. Sunday's quake, whose magnitude the Athens Geodynamic Institute revised to 5.9 from the preliminary 5.8, was followed by dozens of aftershocks that continued through Monday. Frightened residents were preparing to spend a second night in their cars or town squares, fearing a possible bigger quake. Many recall the devastating quakes of 1953, when a 7.2 magnitude earthquake struck three days after a 6.4 temblor, killing hundreds, injuring thousands and destroying nearly all the buildings on the islands.

(BBC- 20140127) US Deep South snow storm maroons motorists

Thousands of people were left stranded overnight on motorways, in schools and churches as a snowstorm spawned traffic chaos in the US deep South. Barely 3in (7.6cm) of snow caused havoc in a warm-weather region where many cities do not even have snow ploughs or fleets of salt trucks.Nearly 8,000 students across Georgia and Alabama spent the night in school gyms or on buses, reports ABC News.

 
 

 

   
         
       
Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC      
  EPICENTER/ MAP    
HIGHEST MEASURED GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE TODAY:
GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0
DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>
   

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME >
M 4.9 - CENTRAL IRAN - 2014-01-28 23:47:35 UTC
LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >
32.45 N ; 50.02 E
DEPTH >
10 km    

 

             

RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

NONE ( DEFAULT) REAL TIME ALERTS>
 
   
EARTHQUAKE REGIONS/ FROM 180° E ON WESTWARDS

TECTONICS:

FREQUENCY/ SINCE

REGION*

EPICENTER:

NUMBER

EVENT ( link to ESMC)  
STRONG EARTHQUAKE SWARM GREECE MEDITERRANEAN SEA REGION (ALL) AFRICA >< EURASIA FREQUENT

"E"

EPICENTER 75 x M 2- M 6 M 4.6 - GREECE - 2014-01-28 05:12:54 UTC  
EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ CA/ SAN ANDREAS FAULT & YELLOWSTONE SV. N-AM./ SAN ANDREAS FAULT >< J. DE FUCA>< PACIFIC 20140108

"C"

EPICENTER 16X > M 2.0 M 3.8 - NEVADA - 2014-01-28 16:20:11 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report  
     
       
TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS
   
       
    << NOAA/ PACIFIC
       
NAME/ TRACKING LINK
EMERGED ON:
REGION
WIND SPEED
COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
   
Tropical Cyclone Eleven 20140127 WESTERN PACIFIC 40 MPH () 150.1° E 16.9° N
200 KM oFF THE COAST OF QUEENSLAND( NE AUSTRALIA
SW
     
                       
NOAA/ Hurricane Center NASA/ GOES NOAA usno.navy.mil METEOALARM METEOSAT

reports taken from:

 
     

 

 

               
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL DATA AND EVENTS
solar data by: solen.info NASA/
 
         

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

note: solar and terrestrial data are always yesterrday`s values!

 

ACTIVE REGIONS AND CORONAL HOLES (solen.info)  

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

70

 

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

276-414

FLARES >

C

10

SOLAR FLUX (sfu.)

157.2

 

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

C 1.4

 

M

06

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

03

 

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

60- 115 nT

minor CME & HSS

X

 

               
Today`s RSGA/ USAF - report on solar activity > IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 27/2210Z from Region 1967 (S14E76). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan, 31 Jan).
               
SOLAR EVENT REPORTS:   SOLAR CME AN SEP EVENTS SATELLITE IMAGES > SOHO/ LASCO C3: STEREO AHEAD COR 2 STEREO BEHIND SDO/ AIA SDO/ AIA
X ray flux significantly increased above C level,. Two- meanwhile active aneighbored regions had rotated in on January 26, form those AR 11967 was very active already on Jan 26 and produced 3 C and 5 M flares on January 28. The strongest wasclassified as M4.9/ 1F.Several of these flares were associated to major CMEs, those headed of into South eastern direction and had no directly Earth directed parts. SoHo images suggest an associated particle flux- likely protons - One sychronous flare on Jan 29 appeared to be fully halo on SoHoO. AR 11968 produced only one C flare .     GOES X-ray flux/ January 26- 28- 2014

      Satellite Date and Time >   20140129/ 09:09 UTC   20140128    

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS INVOLVED IN mAJOR FLARE ACTIVITIES, CMEs OR SEPS:

EARTH DIRECTED CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

CLASS/ CONF.*

MERIDIAN

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

IMPACT SIZE:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 
 

11967

70° -56° E

12° S

EKI/ FKC

FEB- 01

---

---

---

---

 
 

11968

68° - 54° W

10° N

EAO

FEB- 01

---

---

---

---

 
           

LATEST AND CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL EVENTS

LAST UPDATE

20140129        
           

 

 

 

 

 
CH High Speed Solar winds (HSS) SOLAR ACTIVITY X RAY > M 5 /R 1 G1 GEOMAGNETIC STORM

CME IMPACT

APPROACHING CMEs : 01?

ACTIVE SEP / PHASE II

SEP event log>
 
        e      

SEP EVENTS>

ACTIVE SEP

> 10 MeV PROTONS +/-o.1 pfu. (-) > 2 MeV ELECTRONS (+) < 1000 pfu (+)

ELECTRONS ARE ACTIVE ABOVE NORTHERN POLE

   
ACUMMULATION OF SUCCEEDING SEPs! 20140107/ 6:00 UTC/ 20140107/ 20140114      
 

^begin

^end

             

TODAY`S SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE IMPACTS

               
               
INTEGRAL PARTICLE FLUX:   NOAA ALERTS:    

 

 
PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

TODAY:(2)

THIS DAY (2)

PAST 24 h

SOLAR ALERTS/ INFLUENCES

 

> 10 MeV PROTON FLUX

+/- 0.1 pfu

+/- 0.1 pfu

+/- 0.1 pfu.

NONE

NONE

X RAY > M 5(FLARE ACTIVITY)

 
  CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):   0446 TYPE II/ IV TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION  
PARTICLE TYPE:

YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

TODAY:(2)

1936 UTC

0830

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

 

>0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>1.000 < 5.000 pfu (-) >2.000 < 9.000 pfu (-) proton infl.

NONE

NONE

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

 

>2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>09 < 40 (-) >08 <80 (-) proton infl.  
x ray alerts are peaks in solar x ray emissions those occure during flare activities )
 
NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA

NO CURRENT DATA

UNKNOWN    
TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS are typical indicators for Coronal Mass Ejections ( CME)
 
(2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values  

10 cm RADIO BURSTS are typical indicators for STRONGER ERUPTIONS& Coronal Mass ejections

 
(4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu   the hp index shows how far the geomagnetic electron flux is disturbed by solar influences  
         

 

 

 

2014

MONTH:

JANUARY

DAY:

27

 

 

     

 

EPICENTER/ MAP    
HIGHEST MEASURED GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE TODAY:
GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0
DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>
   

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME >
M 5.5 - CHUQUISACA, BOLIVIA - 2014-01-27 16:42:38 UTC
LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >
19.22 S ; 63.99 W
DEPTH >
605 km    

 

               
   
EARTHQUAKE REGIONS/ FROM 180° E ON WESTWARDS

TECTONICS:

FREQUENCY/ SINCE

REGION*

EPICENTER:

NUMBER

EVENT ( link to ESMC)  
STRON EARTHQUAKE SWARM GREECE MEDITERRANEAN SEA REGION (ALL) AFRICA >< EURASIA FREQUENT

"E"

EPICENTER 85 x M 2- M 6 M 4.5 - GREECE - 2014-01-27 09:47:38 UTC  
CA/ SAN ANDREAS FAULT & YELLOWSTONE SV. N-AM./ SAN ANDREAS FAULT >< J. DE FUCA>< PACIFIC REGULARLY

"C"

EPICENTER 03 M 3.4 - CENTRAL CALIFORNIA - 2014-01-27 23:35:33 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report  
     

REPORTS

2014

JANUARY

 

         
 

 

(Earthquake.com/ 20140126Very Strong (damaging) earthquake along the Java coast, Indonesia)

( the guardian/ 20140128) Java landslide rescuers search for survivors in Indonesia – video

Rescuers on Indonesia's main island of Java search for survivors after two landslides triggered by torrential rain on Monday night. The landslides killed at 19 people, with 10 others unaccounted for. This footage shows rescuers digging through debris with their hands and shovels as authorities struggle to get tractors and bulldozers over washed-out roads

(Inquisitr- 20140127 USA) Extreme Weather Causes Snow Rollers Throughout The Midwest

( accuweather/ 20140127) More Tropical Trouble for the Philippines This Week

While many across the southern and central Philippines are still recovering from rounds of heavy rainfall this month, another tropical disturbance arrive later this week. Rains from former Tropical Storm Lingling, combined with the local monsoon, resulted in torrential rainfall, totaling more than 1220 mm (48 inches) in some parts of eastern Mindanao.

 
       

 

 

 

       
   
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL DATA AND EVENTS
 
SOURCES:
 
         

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

date: 20140125

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

note: solar and terrestrial data are always yesterrday`s values!

solar data by: solen.info

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

62

 

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

290-348

FLARES >

C

13

SOLAR FLUX (sfu.)

143

 

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

C 1.2

 

M

03

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

02

 

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

60- 110 nT

< ip. proton influence

X

 

 
      X ray flux significantly increased above C level, while another new, single and very active region has rotated in on the Eastern solar limb on Jan 27 producing C and M flares. One cant be sure,, but this might be one of the last boosts in solar activity for the next half year <
        ^GOES X-ray flux/ January 26- 28- 2014  

 

 

 

 

2014

MONTH:

JANUARY

DAY:

26

 

 

     
       
Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC      
  EPICENTER/ MAP    
HIGHEST MEASURED GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE TODAY:
GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0
DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>
   

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME >
M 6.0 - GREECE - 2014-01-26 13:55:45 UTC
LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >
38.22 N ; 20.39 E
DEPTH >
24 km    

 

             
   
EARTHQUAKE REGIONS/ FROM 180° E ON WESTWARDS

TECTONICS:

FREQUENCY/ SINCE

REGION*

EPICENTER:

NUMBER

EVENT ( link to ESMC)  
STRON EARTHQUAKE SWARM GREECE MEDITERRANEAN SEA REGION (ALL) AFRICA >< EURASIA FREQUENT

"E"

EPICENTER 39 x M 2- M 6 M 5.3 - GREECE - 2014-01-26 18:45:09 UTC  
SWARM/ AZORES ISLANDS REGION N & S -AM. >< AFR >< EURASIA HOT SPOT / AFTER SEP

"E"

EPICENTER 01 M 2.5 - CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION - 2014-01-26 06:21:22 UTC  
CA/ SAN ANDREAS FAULT & YELLOWSTONE SV. N-AM./ SAN ANDREAS FAULT >< J. DE FUCA>< PACIFIC REGULARLY

"C"

EPICENTER 03 M 3.0 - NORTHERN CALIFORNIA - 2014-01-26 02:39:47 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report  
     

HEADLINES

2014

JANUARY

 

         
 

/ earthquake. com- 20130126)Strong earthquake in Western Greece (Cephalonia) – Many buildings damaged, some people slightly injured

 

(Euronews/ 20100125) Snow chaos in Romania

In Romania heavy snowfall has closed many national roads and several motorways. 80 km an hour winds resulted in flights being cancelled villages being left without electricity, and two fatalities in a road accident in the south of the country. Railway traffic has also been disrupted. The weather is expected to continue at least until Sunday.

GVP Report January 15- 21:

As a new record since years, 7 volcanoes are currently active along the western coast of Central and South America (source: GVP) . 4 of them are on red alert level:

Pacaya ( Guatemala)- San Miguel (San Salvador)- San Christobal (Nicaragua)- El Misti (Peru)

three others are on yellow alert:

Colima (Mexico)- Fuego (Guatemala)- Puyehue Cordon Caulle ( Central Chile)

   
 

 

   
                       

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES      

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

THIS DAY (2)

PAST 24 h

ALERTS AS ISSUED BY NOAA

     
flare events

X RAY > M 5(FLARE ACTIVITY)

NONE

NONE

peaks in solar x ray emissions generally generally flare activities )
 

CME events

TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION TYPE II/ IV NONE
TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS are typical indicators for Coronal Mass Ejections ( CME)
 
 

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

0830

NONE

10 cm RADIO BURSTS are typical indicators for STRONGER ERUPTIONS Coronal Mass ejections ( CME)
 
 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

an index how far the geomagnetic electron flux is disturbed mainly by solar influences such as HSS
 
                     
GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -01 nT NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 08 nT/1656ZUSAF) The Bz component is the value, the geomagnetic fiels density fluctuates /shifts in North/ South direction such as during CME impacts  
EFFECTIVE PROTONS NO DATA

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

           
new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report and report that represents the highest N/ S amplitude of that day    
                       
     

 

 

               
                       

 

 

 

 

2014

MONTH:

JANUARY

DAY:

23

 

 

     
     

 

 

               

ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

 

 

 
                       
GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS
Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC      
  EPICENTER/ MAP    
HIGHEST MEASURED GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE TODAY:
GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0
DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>
   

 

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME >
 
LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >
 
DEPTH >
     

 

             

RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

NONE ( DEFAULT) REAL TIME ALERTS>
 
INITIAL SEAQUAKE >  
LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >
 
DEPTH >
       
TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER:   REPORT ISSUED ON:   ACTIVE WARNING ( YES/ NO): NO / DEFAULT) CANCELLED AT : NO (DEFAULT)    
TSUNAMI WARNING ( DETAILS) note: the Tsunami report on this site here is for documentary but rather not up to date. For latest informations, check out: NOAA/ PTWC    
NOAA REPORT IN TEXT FORMAT:
 
INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE   LOCATION:   NR OF WAVES   WAVE HEIGHTS    
 
WARNINGS ISSUED FOR: NOAA REPORT  
                       
   
EARTHQUAKE REGIONS/ FROM 180° E ON WESTWARDS

TECTONICS:

FREQUENCY/ SINCE

REGION*

EPICENTER:

NUMBER

EVENT ( link to ESMC)  
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA/ KURIL ISLANDS / JAPAN N-AM. >< EUR. >< PAC.><PHIL. FREQUENT

"B"

EPICENTER      
EASTERN PACIFIC/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC. PAC. >< INDO- AUS FREQUENT

"B"

EPICENTER      
REGION INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES/ INDIA EUR.>< / INDO- AUS. FREQUENT

"A"

EPICENTER      
MEDITERRANEAN SEA REGION (ALL) AFRICA >< EURASIA FREQUENT

"E"

EPICENTER      
ARABIC PLATE -SYRIA, IRAQ ETC. INCL. IRAN AFR><ARAB >< EUR><INDO-AUS FREQUENT

"F"

EPICENTER      
AFRICA AND ITS TECTONIC BOUNDARIES

EUR >< AFR>< AMER >< ANTAR.

volcanic?

"E"

EPICENTER      
CONTINENTAL EURASIA INCLUDING ASIA N-AM. ><EUR->< AFR.><PAC> SELDOM

"E"/"F

EPICENTER      
GERMANY / appr 150 miles distance TO EIFEL VOLCANIC FIELD EURASIA (volcanic) SELDOM

"E"

EPICENTER      
SWARM/ AZORES ISLANDS REGION N & S -AM. >< AFR >< EURASIA HOT SPOT / AFTER SEP

"E"

EPICENTER      
NORTHERN ATLANTIC/ ARCTIC SEA N & S -AM. ><EURASIA FROM TIME TO TIME

"E"

EPICENTER      
ATLANTIC/ SOUTH N& S -AM. >< AFRICA >< EUR. HOT SPOT / AFTER SEP

"E"

EPICENTER:      
GULF OF MEXICO N & S -AM. >CARIBBEAN ><NASCA ><COCOS SELDOM

"C"

EPICENTER      
GUATEMALA/ PANAMERICA N & S -AM. ><NASCA ><COCOS LIKELY VOLCANIC

"C"

EPICENTER      
REGION PERU- BOLIVIA PAC. >< SOUTH AM. >< NASZA FREQUENT

"D"

EPICENTER      
REGION CHILE / ARGENTINE ( SA/ NASCA PLATE) SOUTH AMERICA >< NASZA RATHER SELDOM

"D"

EPICENTER      
CA/ SAN ANDREAS FAULT & YELLOWSTONE SV. N-AM./ SAN ANDREAS FAULT >< J. DE FUCA>< PACIFIC REGULARLY

"C"

EPICENTER      
CANADA, ALASKA/ (CASCADIAN SZ) NORTH-AMERICA ><EXPLORER P. SOMETIMES

"C"

EPICENTER      
yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values
*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report  
 

 

 

                   
NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES
       
 
This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >
         
volcano-discovery/gadget

note: this report does NOT necessarely represent all currently global active volcanoes!

   

 

report by:

GVP  

 

Smithsonian Institution / USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report

Activity for the week of 15 January-21 January 2014

The Smithsonian page is updated on Wednesdays. Please see the GVP Home Page for news of the latest significant activity.

 

NEW ACTIVITIES/ UPDATES:

ONGOING ACTIVITIES/ UPDATES:

 
Grímsvötn Iceland New
El Misti Peru New
Pacaya Guatemala New
San Cristóbal Nicaragua New
San Miguel El Salvador New
Sinabung Indonesia New
Chirinkotan Kuril Islands (Russia) Ongoing
Chirpoi Kuril Islands (Russia) Ongoing
Colima Mexico Ongoing
Fuego Guatemala Ongoing
Karymsky Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) Ongoing
Kilauea Hawaiian Islands (USA) Ongoing
Nishino-shima Japan Ongoing
Puyehue-Cordón Caulle Chile Ongoing
Sakurajima Kyushu (Japan) Ongoing
Shiveluch Central Kamchatka (Russia) Ongoing
 
  The Smithsonian was closed due to a United States federal government shutdown on Oct- 02- 2013. On October 21- 2013, Global Volcanism Program staff could return to work : First new vulcanism update was issued on Oct- 23- 2013  
     

 

 

                     
TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS
             
                 
               
               
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK
EMERGED ON:
REGION
WIND SPEED
COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
                   
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK
EMERGED ON:
REGION
WIND SPEED
COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
                   
INDIAN OCEAN:
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK
EMERGED ON:
REGION
WIND SPEED
COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
                   
                     
NOAA/ Hurricane Center NASA/ GOES NOAA usno.navy.mil METEOALARM METEOSAT

reports taken from:

 

 

 

               

HEADLINES

2014

JANUARY

 

         
 

 

   
 

 

   
         
               

 

 

           

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

 

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

 

 

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

 

FLARES >

C

 

 

SOLAR FLUX (sfu.)

 

 

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

 

 

M

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

 

 

X

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

CLASS/ CONF.*

MERIDIAN

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

IMPACT SIZE:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

11952

64° -78° W 32° S HSX/ CSO  

 

 

 

 

 
 

11955

18° - 32° W 13° S CAO/ DAO JAN- 21

 

 

 

 

 
faded( Jan18)

11956

37° - 23° E 14° S AXX/ BXO JAN- 20          
 

11957

20° - 34° W 12° N DAI/ DAC JAN- 21          
 

11958

10° E- 04° W 08° S CSO/ HAX JAN- 23          
 

11959

19° - 05° E 24° S EHO/ EAO            
 

11960

23° - 09° E 16° S HKX/ CHO JAN 24          
 

11961

61° - 75° W 11° S DSO/ DAO            
faded( JAN 21)

11962

06° E- 08° W 16° S CRO/ BXO            
 

11963

46° - 32° E 07° S BXO/ CRO JAN 26          
 

11964

40° - 26° E 13° S AXX/ BXO JAN 25          
NEWLY EMERGED

11965

61° - 47° E 6° S HRX            

SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

05

 

 

         

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

               
                     

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region            

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**            
*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson            
                       

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

     
NUMBER POSITION*: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING MAG &remarks  

CHUNN.

NORTH LARGE/ GROWING 20140116 20140120- 22    
             
                     
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

           
     

 

             
ABBREVIATIONS> NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT)          
RECURR.= RECURRENT T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL ext= extended UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH            
                     

Today`s USAF report on solar activity >>

                 
       
             

OBSERVED SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY

                 

SUNSPOTS/SOLAR FLUX >

RISING

ERUPTIONS >

LOW            
FLUCTUATIONS IN SOLAR ACTIVITY

currently peaking ( yellow background):

 

             
SHORT PERIOD FLUCTUATION APPR. 1/2 YEAR FLUCTUATION 11 YEAR SUN SPOT CYCLE

60/ 120 YEAR CYCLE? (unknown)

           

OVERLAPSING CYCLES

 

MARCH 2013

 

           
 

 

 

               

LATEST SOLAR EVENTS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT:

       
    SDO- 20140120/ 22:11  

JANUARY 21- 29 2014:

most of the experts believe,"the sun is turning silent". But this statement refers only to the sun spot/ x ray activity ( which is just a highest in the entire spectrum) Ths activity in the average, t indreed was lower during the 24 solar cyle compared to the previous ones. But all these examinations only regard the number of sun spots( related to the solar flux) but not- for instance - the size of single sun spots. However. in October 2012, more and more single sun spots appeared on another significantly increasing in seize, and became the dominant - often even the only source of flares on the visible sun disc. Some of them were sparkling with hundreds of flares around the clock for weeks , others produced 4 x flares in a row. This trend continues since then and increased so far,as there were recently more and more entire complex single active regions, "doing the job" The most massive was AR 11944/43 that involved in zje first week of 2014 at least 1/ 8 of the solar disc in its activities and was the source of the strongest SEP) (ass to an X 1.2 flare) observed in the last years ( Jan 07), with a proton speed higher then 1/ 2 c and a density of 1000. pfu the strongest since? (years?) After that powerful perfomance the solar disc turned again quite for about 14 days (until January 20). Yet on January 19 2014, a new region ( AR 11959/ 60) rotated in on the eastern limb and began with intensive flares. A major flare on Jan 20 was likely then source of an ( if so...)high speed CME flanc impact today.- Jan21 , that has a significant positive polarity or proton overcharge, knocking down again a bit the integral electron flux and geomag field intensity. AR11959/ 60 will accompony us until end of January 2014, and will for sure have some surprises such as SEPs. >>

 
   

JANUARY 07- 2014:

The largest sun spot observed during the 24 11 years cycle max (complex region AR 11944 and 34 )now produced also the strongest Earth directed CME event observed in the last two years while just crossing the central solar meridian. It was just the strongest event amonng an entire serial of flares and CMEs typically following major SEP events. The flare was classified as X1.2/2N but was also very intensive, large and wide . The CME was associated to an increase of the ongoing proton storm from about 20 pfu ( January 06) to1000 pfu (!!) on January 08. Due to solen.info, the CME has a record exit speed of about 2500 km/s will arrive likely early on January 09 and will have largest and major geophysical effects My alert warning is on highest ed alert: More updates as weell as a video will follow later that day. if the time of the X1.2/2N solar event is also the time of the SEP event, Protons had again a speed near to the speed of light! first images and data from the large solar event ( the strongest SEP and Earth directed ( X class flare) and CME observed during the last 2 years- without regarding previous events )>>

 

 

 

               
INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX
             
                       

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT : LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:      
PROTON FLUX HIGHTENED

rising on 20140120 after 14 UTC ( event not evaluated yet)

ELECTRON FLUX RISING

rising on 20140120 after 14 UTC/ back to normal on 20140122

     
BEGIN/ END:  

 

 

BEGIN/ END:    

 

 

     

 

 

                     

TERRESTRIAL

                   

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

                 

STATUS:

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment /

GOES satellites are at geostationary orbit and measure influences / impacts on the geomagnetic field  

QUIET

   

UNSETTLED

   
ACTIVE    
MINOR STORM    

MAJOR STORM

   

 

 
CME IMPACT /              
       
       
                       
Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>                    
       
                       

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES      

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

THIS DAY (2)

PAST 24 h

ALERTS AS ISSUED BY NOAA

     
flare events

X RAY > M 5(FLARE ACTIVITY)

NONE

NONE

peaks in solar x ray emissions generally generally flare activities )
 

CME events

TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION NONE NONE
TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS are typical indicators for Coronal Mass Ejections ( CME)
 
 

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

NONE

10 cm RADIO BURSTS are typical indicators for STRONGER ERUPTIONS Coronal Mass ejections ( CME)
 
 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

G1 (expected)

NONE

an index how far the geomagnetic electron flux is disturbed mainly by solar influences such as HSS
 
                     
GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -07 nT/1555Z (USAF) NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 08 nT/1656ZUSAF) The Bz component is the value, the geomagnetic fiels density fluctuates /shifts in North/ South direction such as during CME impacts  
EFFECTIVE PROTONS NO DATA

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

           
new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report and report that represents the highest N/ S amplitude of that day          
                       
                   

TODAY`S SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE IMPACTS

             
             
INTEGRAL PARTICLE FLUX:          
PARTICLE TYPE:
YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):
PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)
TODAY:(2)

NOTICES:

 

> 10 MeV PROTON FLUX

+/- 0.1 pfu

+/- 0.1 pfu

+/- 0.1 pfu.

On 20140114, The integral proton flux had decreased to normal values.
 
  CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):  
PARTICLE TYPE:
YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):
PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)
TODAY:(2)
 

>0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>150 < 20.000 pfu (-) >400 < 20.000 pfu (-) rising  

>2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>04 <60 (-) >04 < 200 (-) rising  
NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA

NO CURRENT DATA

UNKNOWN    
(2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values    
(4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu   ^INTEGRAL ELECTRON FLUX ( GOES- 20140120-22)  

 

 

            A New SEP with an X 1,2 flare occured at 18:52 and knocked the > 10 MEV Electrons immidiately down to almost zero. Intergral proton flux increased further to more than 100 pfu at around 19 UTC- roughly 10- 15 Minutes after the (suspected!!) SEP event time ( Its not certain whether it went of simultanously with the CME at 18:52!HOWEVER: If, then Proton speed would have reached more than 1/ 2 or even 2/ 3 of the speed of light!  
                 

CURRENTLY ACTIVE SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS (SEP)

     
orange background = actvitiy is PENDING, LATENT OR INTERFERED BY NEW SEP even
 
CURRENTLY GEOEFFECTIVE SEP:            
PHASE I = Proton impact (Southern Pole)
 
RELATED (LATEST ) SOLAR SEP EVENT:
SOLAR EVENT:
20140107/ after 19 UTC
STRONG SEP/ P-flux exceeding 1000 pfu.
PHASE II = Electron Accumulation (Northern pole)
 
CURRENT SEP STATUS: ACCUMULATING SEPs     PHASE I (protons) PHASE II (Electrons) PHASE III (Cooling)
PHASE III = End of activity ( cooling down with expectable major Earthquakes
 
                 
LATEST SEP EVENT/ event log

 

 

 

 
 

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:  
SEP event > 10 MeV PROTONS
X 1,2 2 N Flare & CME after SEP/ 20140107/18 UTC
20140107/ 19 UTC
20140114/ 14 UTC
+/ - 1000 pfu.
near the speed of light
the exact P-speed is not evaluated yet
 
SEP event 10 MeV PROTONS
associated to major flaring in AR 11944
20140106/ 06 UTC
overlapsed by following SEP
> 30 pfu.
 
solar event could not certainly be evaluated
 
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  
 
INTEGRAL>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)
 
 
 
 
pending
 
INTEGRAL 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)
 
 
 
 
pending
 

 

 

           
                 
PREVIOUS & STILL INTERFERING ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS (SEP) NONE                

SOLAR STORMS (SAPor SEP ) ARE INTENSIVE EMISSIONS OF HIGH ACCELERATED SOLAR PARTICLES ( PROTON/ ELECTRONS)

       

* SAP OR:" SEP" = SOLAR ACCELERATED (OR: ENERGETIC) PARTICLES (PR., EL.)

         

 

 

     
(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : SEP & CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS
 
SOURCES:
 
               

CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL EVENTS

LAST UPDATE

20140119  

 

 
                     
CH High Speed Solar winds (HSS) SUn SPOTS > 200 X RAY > M 5 /R3) G1 GEOMAGNETIC STORM

CME IMPACT

APPROACHING CMEs : 01?

ACTIVE SEP / PHASE II

 
        e    

SEP EVENTS>

ACTIVE SEP

> 10 MeV PROTONS > 0.1 < 0.5 pfu. (+) > 2 MeV ELECTRONS (+) < 1000 pfu (-)

ELECTRONS ARE ACTIVE ABOVE NORTHERN POLE

 
ACUMMULATION OF SUCCEEDING SEPs! 20140107/ 6:00 UTC/ 20140107/ 20140114    
 

^begin

^end

         

 

 
         

EXPERIMENTAL SEP/ VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

ORANGE BACKGROUND= " LATENCY" MEANS: THESE EFFECTS  ARE LATENT AND EXPECTABLE , BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER UNLIKELY  
             

ALERT LEVEL

         
RISING ELECTRONS ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES TODAY

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

REMARKS AND/ OR PROBABILITY  

23 JANUARY 2014

 

M 5.5 -6.5

1- 2 proton influence  

24 JANUARY 2014

 

M 5.5 -6.0

1- 2 rising electrons  

25 JANUARY 2014

 

M 5.5 -6.5

1- 2 (LATENCY) EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS  
ABOUT LATENCIES:
   
INFLUENCES:
(continuing magmatic tremors and eq. swarms ! PROTON IMPACT (SEP)- DECREASING  
EFFECTING AS >
INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS(/EARTHQUAKES: HIGHER  

NOTES:* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

(In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 
                   

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

background influence:

SEP (20140107/ CME 20140120

EFFECTIVE CMEs/ int. Nrs. >

medium (+pol.)CME impact on 20140121
 

ALERT LEVEL

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS: LATEST CME IMPACT REGIONS/ =EXPECTABLE EVENT REGIONS  

RISING ELECTRONS

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES AND TREMORS PRIMARY REGIONS IMPACT PLATE BOUNDARIES (longitudenal):

Latest CME ( SEP impact longitudes

 

INDUCED CURRENTS (-) EASTERN ATLANTIC / CANARY ISL < CURRENTLY MOST AFFECTED REGION MAIN: 30° - 150° W/ 150°- 180° W  
RADIO BLACKOUTS W- EUROPE/ ATLANTIC

N- AMERICA ><EURASIA ><AFRICA

SECONDARY: 90°- 15 ° E  
SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS/ TORNADOES (+) CENTRAL AMERICA

ATLANTIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< CARRIBEAN >< COCOS

Hemisphere: SOUTH- CENTRAL  
WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) NORTH AMERICA/ WEST   BACKGROUND EVENTS:
 
WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) SOUTH AMERICA

PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< NASCA

ACCUMULATING SEPS!

 
RAPIDE MELTDOWNS OF GLACIERS OR PERMAICE EASTERN PACIFIC N- AMERICA >< INDO/ AUS ><PAC

accumulating SEPs can create rising heat within the Earth mantle that leads to strong magmatic /volcanic events

 

SEP EFFECTS:

PROTONS: GEOMAGNETIC IMPACT AND DEPRESSION (-)

SECONDARY REGIONS : 2-3 < ESTIMATED EFFECT INTENSITY  
HOT SPOTS > VOLCANIC HOT SPOT ACTIVITIES/ MAGMATIC TREMORS (-) EURASIA/ EAST PACIFIC ><N- AM ><EURASIA ><INDO/AUS  
PROTONS > PROTON IMPACT > SOUTHERN POLE (-) EAST AFRICA/ INDIA

N- AMERICA ><EURASIA ><AFRICA

 
EARTHQUAKES > ELECTRONS HEATING TECTONIC PLATES (+)

JAPAN- INDONESIA

AFRICA>< EURASIA><INDO/AUS><PAC *REGIONS> see definition in register panel above  
ELECTRONS > HEAT EFFECTS/ ANOMALITIES NEAR NORTHERN POLE (+)

VOLCANO/ HOT SPOT ACTIVITY >

   
CLIMATE WEATHER >
DISTURBED SEA CURRENTS/ AND CIRCUM POLAR WIND STREAMS ( ONLY NORTH) (+) ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY >>>    
NOTES TO SEP EVENTS::               read also: NASA SCIENCE/ 2005:NASA - A New Kind of Solar Storm  

 

       
                       

 

 

 

 

 

2014

MONTH:

JANUARY

DAY:

22

 

 

     
     

 

 

               

ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

 

 

 
                       
GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS
Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC      
  EPICENTER/ MAP    
HIGHEST MEASURED GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE TODAY:
GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0
DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>
 

     
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME >
M 5.5 - VANUATU REGION - 2014-01-22 10:20:31 UTC
LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >
20.42 S ; 172.53 E 10 km        

 

               

RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

NONE ( DEFAULT) REAL TIME ALERTS>
     
     
yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values
*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report  
 

 

 

                   
NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES
       
 
This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >
         

 

 

                     
TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS
             
                 
               
               
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK
EMERGED ON:
REGION
WIND SPEED
COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
                   
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK
EMERGED ON:
REGION
WIND SPEED
COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
                   
INDIAN OCEAN:
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK
EMERGED ON:
REGION
WIND SPEED
COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
                   
                     
NOAA/ Hurricane Center NASA/ GOES NOAA usno.navy.mil METEOALARM METEOSAT

reports taken from:

 

 

 

               

HEADLINES

2014

JANUARY

 

         
 

JANUARY- 24- 2014: The tremor activity on the Canary islands increased to the highest values since 2011 after three new Magma boosts from the hot spot below El Hierro o January 21. The activity was since begin of the new phase end of December 2013 always highest on the island of Tenerife. ( second is Gran Canaria) This third highest volcano of the Earth is situated in(resp. nearby) to a geological speading zone, where updwelling magma usually has much space to flow to an expand. A sudden eruption of the volcano of Teide however CANNOT be excluded, if the earthcrust above the currently mantle will have the chance to cool down and contract again what suddeny then might push the magma finally to the surface. Magma once pushed upwards however cannot flowe back into the mantle again!So- the only alternative scenario WITH NO ERUPTION would be that the magma WOULD NOT rise further, but would have the chance to coold down an harden ou. Currently the magma intrusion is still going on and an ltant danger for an eruption must be considered. From the latest reports of an Eruption on the northern flanc of Mnt Teide in the 17th century it is known that the volcano- if it erupts would produce dense and thick plumes of smoke, and might also thrown stones into its nearby neighborhood!

For current updates follow my special report on my google blog ( this blog is currently in German but will be made in English form the following week on"

   
 

 

   
         
               

 

 

           

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

 

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

144

 

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

408-584

FLARES >

C

02

 

SOLAR FLUX (sfu.)

134.3

 

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 4.8

 

M

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

09

 

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

40- 110 nT

 

X

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

CLASS/ CONF.*

MERIDIAN

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

IMPACT SIZE:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

11952

52° -66° W 32° S HSX/ CSO  

 

 

 

 

 
 

11954

51° - 65° W 07° N AXX/ BXO  

 

 

 

 

 
 

11955

03° - 17° W 13° S HAX/ CAO JAN- 21          
faded( Jan18)

11956

37° - 23° E 14° S AXX/ BXO JAN- 20          
 

11957

06° - 20° W 12° N DAO/ DRI JAN- 21          
 

11958

23° - 09° E 08° S CSO/ HAX JAN- 23          
 

11959

33° - 19° E 24° S EAI/ EHI            
 

11960

37° - 23° E 16° S HKX/ CAO JAN 24          
 

11961

48° - 62° W 11° S DAO/ DAI            
faded( JAN 21)

11962

06° E- 08° W 16° S CRO/ BXO            
NEWLY EMERGED

11963

58° - 44° E 07° S CSO/ CAI            
NEWLY EMERGED

11964

52° - 38° E 13° S BXO/ CRO            

SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

07

 

 

         

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

               
                     

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region            

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**            
*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson            
                       

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

     
NUMBER POSITION*: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING MAG &remarks  

CHUNN.

NORTH LARGE/ GROWING 20140116 20140120- 22    
             
                     
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

LOW

SOURCE:

CH 600

           
     

 

             
ABBREVIATIONS> NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT)          
RECURR.= RECURRENT T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL ext= extended UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH            
                     

Today`s USAF report on solar activity >>

                 
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan).      
             

OBSERVED SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY

                 

SUNSPOTS/SOLAR FLUX >

RISING

ERUPTIONS >

LOW            
FLUCTUATIONS IN SOLAR ACTIVITY

currently peaking ( yellow background):

 

             
SHORT PERIOD FLUCTUATION APPR. 1/2 YEAR FLUCTUATION 11 YEAR SUN SPOT CYCLE

60/ 120 YEAR CYCLE? (unknown)

           

OVERLAPSING CYCLES

 

MARCH 2013

 

           
 

 

 

               

LATEST SOLAR EVENTS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT:

       
    SDO- 20140120/ 22:11  

JANUARY 21- 29 2014:

most of the experts believe,"the sun is turning silent". But this statement refers only to the sun spot/ x ray activity ( which is just a highest in the entire spectrum) Ths activity in the average, t indreed was lower during the 24 solar cyle compared to the previous ones. But all these examinations only regard the number of sun spots( related to the solar flux) but not- for instance - the size of single sun spots. However. in October 2012, more and more single sun spots appeared on another significantly increasing in seize, and became the dominant - often even the only source of flares on the visible sun disc. Some of them were sparkling with hundreds of flares around the clock for weeks , others produced 4 x flares in a row. This trend continues since then and increased so far,as there were recently more and more entire complex single active regions, "doing the job" The most massive was AR 11944/43 that involved in zje first week of 2014 at least 1/ 8 of the solar disc in its activities and was the source of the strongest SEP) (ass to an X 1.2 flare) observed in the last years ( Jan 07), with a proton speed higher then 1/ 2 c and a density of 1000. pfu the strongest since? (years?) After that powerful perfomance the solar disc turned again quite for about 14 days (until January 20). Yet on January 19 2014, a new region ( AR 11959/ 60) rotated in on the eastern limb and began with intensive flares. A major flare on Jan 20 was likely then source of an ( if so...)high speed CME flanc impact today.- Jan21 , that has a significant positive polarity or proton overcharge, knocking down again a bit the integral electron flux and geomag field intensity. AR11959/ 60 will accompony us until end of January 2014, and will for sure have some surprises such as SEPs. >>

 
   

JANUARY 07- 2014:

The largest sun spot observed during the 24 11 years cycle max (complex region AR 11944 and 34 )now produced also the strongest Earth directed CME event observed in the last two years while just crossing the central solar meridian. It was just the strongest event amonng an entire serial of flares and CMEs typically following major SEP events. The flare was classified as X1.2/2N but was also very intensive, large and wide . The CME was associated to an increase of the ongoing proton storm from about 20 pfu ( January 06) to1000 pfu (!!) on January 08. Due to solen.info, the CME has a record exit speed of about 2500 km/s will arrive likely early on January 09 and will have largest and major geophysical effects My alert warning is on highest ed alert: More updates as weell as a video will follow later that day. if the time of the X1.2/2N solar event is also the time of the SEP event, Protons had again a speed near to the speed of light! first images and data from the large solar event ( the strongest SEP and Earth directed ( X class flare) and CME observed during the last 2 years- without regarding previous events )>>

 

 

 

               
INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX
             
                       

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT : LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:      
PROTON FLUX RISING

rising on 20140120 after 14 UTC ( event not evaluated yet)

ELECTRON FLUX RISING

rising on 20140120 after 14 UTC

     
BEGIN/ END:  

 

 

BEGIN/ END:    

 

 

     

 

 

                     

TERRESTRIAL

                   

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

                 

STATUS:

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment /

GOES satellites are at geostationary orbit and measure influences / impacts on the geomagnetic field  

QUIET

   

UNSETTLED

   
ACTIVE    
MINOR STORM    

MAJOR STORM

   

 

< the impact of the first and und usually FAST CME from AR 11959/ 60 which just rotated in on the eastern limb (currently the largest as well as most acive region) was stronger than expected and even accomponied by a short slight increase of the integral proton flux
 
CME IMPACT /              
       
       
                       
Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>                    
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 525 km/s at 22/2108Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 23/0042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/0258Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan).      
                       

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES      

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

THIS DAY (2)

PAST 24 h

ALERTS AS ISSUED BY NOAA

     
flare events

X RAY > M 5(FLARE ACTIVITY)

NONE

NONE

peaks in solar x ray emissions generally generally flare activities )
 

CME events

TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION NONE NONE
TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS are typical indicators for Coronal Mass Ejections ( CME)
 
 

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

NONE

10 cm RADIO BURSTS are typical indicators for STRONGER ERUPTIONS Coronal Mass ejections ( CME)
 
 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

an index how far the geomagnetic electron flux is disturbed mainly by solar influences such as HSS
 
                     
GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -07 nT/1555Z (USAF) NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 08 nT/1656ZUSAF) The Bz component is the value, the geomagnetic fiels density fluctuates /shifts in North/ South direction such as during CME impacts  
EFFECTIVE PROTONS NO DATA

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

           
new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report and report that represents the highest N/ S amplitude of that day          
                       
                   

TODAY`S SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE IMPACTS

             
             
INTEGRAL PARTICLE FLUX:          
PARTICLE TYPE:
YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):
PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)
TODAY:(2)

NOTICES:

 

> 10 MeV PROTON FLUX

+/- 0.1 pfu

+/- 0.1 pfu

+/- 0.1 pfu.

On 20140114, The integral proton flux had decreased to normal values.
 
  CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):  
PARTICLE TYPE:
YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):
PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)
TODAY:(2)
 

>0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>400 < 20.000 pfu (-) >8.500 < 30.000 pfu (-) CME influence  

>2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>04 < 200 (-) >35 < 250 (-) CME influence  
NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA

NO CURRENT DATA

UNKNOWN    
(2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values    
(4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu   ^INTEGRAL ELECTRON FLUX ( GOES- 20140120-22)  

 

 

            A New SEP with an X 1,2 flare occured at 18:52 and knocked the > 10 MEV Electrons immidiately down to almost zero. Intergral proton flux increased further to more than 100 pfu at around 19 UTC- roughly 10- 15 Minutes after the (suspected!!) SEP event time ( Its not certain whether it went of simultanously with the CME at 18:52!HOWEVER: If, then Proton speed would have reached more than 1/ 2 or even 2/ 3 of the speed of light!  
                 

CURRENTLY ACTIVE SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS (SEP)

     
orange background = actvitiy is PENDING, LATENT OR INTERFERED BY NEW SEP even
 
CURRENTLY GEOEFFECTIVE SEP:            
PHASE I = Proton impact (Southern Pole)
 
RELATED (LATEST ) SOLAR SEP EVENT:
SOLAR EVENT:
20140107/ after 19 UTC
STRONG SEP/ P-flux exceeding 1000 pfu.
PHASE II = Electron Accumulation (Northern pole)
 
CURRENT SEP STATUS: ACCUMULATING SEPs     PHASE I (protons) PHASE II (Electrons) PHASE III (Cooling)
PHASE III = End of activity ( cooling down with expectable major Earthquakes
 
                 
LATEST SEP EVENT/ event log

 

 

 

 
 

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:  
SEP event > 10 MeV PROTONS
X 1,2 2 N Flare & CME after SEP/ 20140107/18 UTC
20140107/ 19 UTC
20140114/ 14 UTC
+/ - 1000 pfu.
near the speed of light
the exact P-speed is not evaluated yet
 
SEP event 10 MeV PROTONS
associated to major flaring in AR 11944
20140106/ 06 UTC
overlapsed by following SEP
> 30 pfu.
 
solar event could not certainly be evaluated
 
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  
 
INTEGRAL>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)
 
 
 
 
pending
 
INTEGRAL 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)
 
 
 
 
pending
 

 

 

           
                 
PREVIOUS & STILL INTERFERING ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS (SEP) NONE                

SOLAR STORMS (SAPor SEP ) ARE INTENSIVE EMISSIONS OF HIGH ACCELERATED SOLAR PARTICLES ( PROTON/ ELECTRONS)

       

* SAP OR:" SEP" = SOLAR ACCELERATED (OR: ENERGETIC) PARTICLES (PR., EL.)

         

 

 

     
(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : SEP & CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS
 
SOURCES:
 
               

CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL EVENTS

LAST UPDATE

20140119  

 

 
                     
CH High Speed Solar winds (HSS) SUn SPOTS > 200 X RAY > M 5 /R3) G1 GEOMAGNETIC STORM

CME IMPACT

APPROACHING CMEs : 01?

ACTIVE SEP / PHASE II

 
        e    

SEP EVENTS>

ACTIVE SEP

> 10 MeV PROTONS > 0.1 < 0.5 pfu. (+) > 2 MeV ELECTRONS (+) < 1000 pfu (-)

ELECTRONS ARE ACTIVE ABOVE NORTHERN POLE

 
ACUMMULATION OF SUCCEEDING SEPs! 20140107/ 6:00 UTC/ 20140107/ 20140114    
 

^begin

^end

         

 

 
         

EXPERIMENTAL SEP/ VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

ORANGE BACKGROUND= " LATENCY" MEANS: THESE EFFECTS  ARE LATENT AND EXPECTABLE , BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER UNLIKELY  
             

ALERT LEVEL

         
CME IMPACT (polarisation: +) ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES TODAY

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

REMARKS AND/ OR PROBABILITY  

23 JANUARY 2014

 

M 5.5 -6.5

1- 2 unexpected "+" charged CME flanc  

24 JANUARY 2014

 

M 5.5 -6.5

1- 2 ELECTRONS EXPECTED TO RISE AGAIN  

25 JANUARY 2014

 

M 5.5 -6.0

1- 2 (LATENCY) EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS  
ABOUT LATENCIES:
   
INFLUENCES:
(continuing magmatic tremors and eq. swarms ! PROTON IMPACT (SEP)- DECREASING  
EFFECTING AS >
INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS(/EARTHQUAKES: HIGHER  

NOTES:* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

(In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 
                   

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

background influence:

SEP (20140107/ CME 20140120

EFFECTIVE CMEs/ int. Nrs. >

medium (+pol.)CME impact on 20140121
 

ALERT LEVEL

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS: LATEST CME IMPACT REGIONS/ =EXPECTABLE EVENT REGIONS  

RISING ELECTRONS

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES AND TREMORS PRIMARY REGIONS IMPACT PLATE BOUNDARIES (longitudenal):

Latest CME ( SEP impact longitides

 

INDUCED CURRENTS (-) EASTERN ATLANTIC / CANARY ISL < CURRENTLY MOST AFFECTED REGION MAIN: 30° - 150° W/ 150°- 180° W  
RADIO BLACKOUTS W- EUROPE/ ATLANTIC

N- AMERICA ><EURASIA ><AFRICA

SECONDARY: 90°- 15 ° E  
SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS/ TORNADOES (+) CENTRAL AMERICA

ATLANTIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< CARRIBEAN >< COCOS

Hemisphere: SOUTH- CENTRAL  
WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) NORTH AMERICA/ WEST   BACKGROUND EVENTS:
 
WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) SOUTH AMERICA

PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< NASCA

ACCUMULATING SEPS!

 
RAPIDE MELTDOWNS OF GLACIERS OR PERMAICE EASTERN PACIFIC N- AMERICA >< INDO/ AUS ><PAC

accumulating SEPs can create rising heat within the Earth mantle that leads to strong magmatic /volcanic events

 

SEP EFFECTS:

PROTONS: GEOMAGNETIC IMPACT AND DEPRESSION (-)

 

SECONDARY REGIONS :

 
HOT SPOTS > VOLCANIC HOT SPOT ACTIVITIES/ MAGMATIC TREMORS (-) EURASIA/ EAST    
PROTONS > PROTON IMPACT > SOUTHERN POLE (-) EAST AFRICA/ INDIA

N- AMERICA ><EURASIA ><AFRICA

 
EARTHQUAKES > ELECTRONS HEATING TECTONIC PLATES (+)

JAPAN- INDONESIA

LONGITUDES : 180 ° - 90° E *REGIONS> see definition below  
ELECTRONS > HEAT EFFECTS/ ANOMALITIES NEAR NORTHERN POLE (+)

VOLCANO/ HOT SPOT ACTIVITY >

   
CLIMATE WEATHER >
DISTURBED SEA CURRENTS/ AND CIRCUM POLAR WIND STREAMS ( ONLY NORTH) (+) ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY >>>    
NOTES TO SEP EVENTS::               read also: NASA SCIENCE/ 2005:NASA - A New Kind of Solar Storm  

 

       
                       
                   

 

click here to open and close collapsible panel with the archived "SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG" JANUARY 15- 21- 2014

 

 

 

 

 

2014

MONTH:

JANUARY

DAY:

21

 

 

     
     

 

 

               

ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

 

 

 
                       
GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS
Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC      
  EPICENTER/ MAP    
HIGHEST MEASURED GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE TODAY:
GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0
DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>
   

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME >
M 6.0 - TONGA - 2014-01-21 01:29:13 UTC
LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >
15.46 S ; 174.86 W
DEPTH >
11 km    

 

             

RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

NONE ( DEFAULT) REAL TIME ALERTS>
 
INITIAL SEAQUAKE >  
LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >
 
DEPTH >
       
TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER:   REPORT ISSUED ON:   ACTIVE WARNING ( YES/ NO): NO / DEFAULT) CANCELLED AT : NO (DEFAULT)    
TSUNAMI WARNING ( DETAILS) note: the Tsunami report on this site here is for documentary but rather not up to date. For latest informations, check out: NOAA/ PTWC    
NOAA REPORT IN TEXT FORMAT:
 
INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE   LOCATION:   NR OF WAVES   WAVE HEIGHTS    
 
WARNINGS ISSUED FOR: NOAA REPORT  
                       
 
EARTHQUAKE REGIONS/ FROM 180° E ON WESTWARDS

TECTONICS:

FREQUENCY/ SINCE

REGION*

EPICENTER:

NUMBER

EVENT ( link to ESMC)  
Earthquake swarm/ region PUERTO RICO/ GULF OF MEXICO N & S -AM. >CARIBBEAN ><NASCA ><COCOS SELDOM

"C"

EPICENTER 06 M 3.1 - PUERTO RICO REGION - 2014-01-21 23:39:24 UTC  
CA/ SAN ANDREAS FAULT & YELLOWSTONE SV. N-AM./ SAN ANDREAS FAULT >< J. DE FUCA>< PACIFIC REGULARLY

"C"

EPICENTER   M 2.5 - OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO - 2014-01-21 06:00:52 UTC  
CANADA, ALASKA/ (CASCADIAN SZ) NORTH-AMERICA ><EXPLORER P. SOMETIMES

"C"

EPICENTER      
yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values
*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report  
 

 

 

                   
NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES
       
 
This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >
         

 

 

                     
TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS
             
                 
               
               
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK
EMERGED ON:
REGION
WIND SPEED
COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
                   
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK
EMERGED ON:
REGION
WIND SPEED
COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
                   
INDIAN OCEAN:
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK
EMERGED ON:
REGION
WIND SPEED
COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
                   
                     
NOAA/ Hurricane Center NASA/ GOES NOAA usno.navy.mil METEOALARM METEOSAT

reports taken from:

 

 

 

               

HEADLINES

2014

JANUARY

 

         
 

 

   
 

 

   
         
               

 

 

           

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

 

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

141

 

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

293-443

FLARES >

C

02

 

SOLAR FLUX (sfu.)

146

 

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 5.0

 

M

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

01

 

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

30- 140 nT

minor CME (+) impact

X

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

CLASS/ CONF.*

MERIDIAN

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

IMPACT SIZE:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

rotating out (JAN 21)

11949

85° - 97° W 15° S HAX/ HRX  

 

 

 

 

 
faded( Jan 18)

11950

58° - 72 ° W 16° N AXX  

 

 

 

 

 
 

11952

40° -54° W 32° S HSX/ CSO            
 

11954

51° - 65° W 07° N AXX/ BXO            
 

11955

09° E- 06° W 13° S HAX/ HAX JAN- 21          
faded( Jan18)

11956

37° - 23° E 14° S AXX/ BXO JAN- 20          
 

11957

08° E- 06° W 12° N DRO/ CRI JAN- 21          
 

11958

38° - 24° E 08° S CSO JAN- 23          
 

11959

48° - 34° E 24° S EAI/ ESC            
 

11960

49° - 35° E 16° S HAX/ HXX            
 

11961

33° - 19° E 11° S DAO/ DAC            
 

11962

06° E- 08° W 16° S CRO/ BXO            

SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

09

 

 

         

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

               
                     

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region            

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**            
*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson            
                       

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

     
NUMBER POSITION*: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING MAG &remarks  

CH 600.

NORTH DECAYING 20140116 20140120- 22    
             
                     
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

           
     

 

             
ABBREVIATIONS> NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT)          
RECURR.= RECURRENT T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL ext= extended UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH            
                     

Today`s USAF report on solar activity >>

                 
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 20/2249Z from Region 1963 (S06E71). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan).      
             

OBSERVED SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY

                 

SUNSPOTS/SOLAR FLUX >

RISING

ERUPTIONS >

LOW            
FLUCTUATIONS IN SOLAR ACTIVITY

currently peaking ( yellow background):

 

             
SHORT PERIOD FLUCTUATION APPR. 1/2 YEAR FLUCTUATION 11 YEAR SUN SPOT CYCLE

60/ 120 YEAR CYCLE? (unknown)

           

OVERLAPSING CYCLES

 

MARCH 2013

 

           
 

 

 

               

LATEST SOLAR EVENTS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT:

       
    SDO- 20140120/ 22:11  

JANUARY 21- 29 2014:

most of the experts believe,"the sun is turning silent". But this statement refers only to the sun spot/ x ray activity ( which is just a highest in the entire spectrum) Ths activity in the average, t indreed was lower during the 24 solar cyle compared to the previous ones. But all these examinations only regard the number of sun spots( related to the solar flux) but not- for instance - the size of single sun spots. However. in October 2012, more and more single sun spots appeared on another significantly increasing in seize, and became the dominant - often even the only source of flares on the visible sun disc. Some of them were sparkling with hundreds of flares around the clock for weeks , others produced 4 x flares in a row. This trend continues since then and increased so far,as there were recently more and more entire complex single active regions, "doing the job" The most massive was AR 11944/43 that involved in zje first week of 2014 at least 1/ 8 of the solar disc in its activities and was the source of the strongest SEP) (ass to an X 1.2 flare) observed in the last years ( Jan 07), with a proton speed higher then 1/ 2 c and a density of 1000. pfu the strongest since? (years?) After that powerful perfomance the solar disc turned again quite for about 14 days (until January 20). Yet on January 19 2014, a new region ( AR 11959/ 60) rotated in on the eastern limb and began with intensive flares. A major flare on Jan 20 was likely then source of an ( if so...)high speed CME flanc impact today.- Jan21 , that has a significant positive polarity or proton overcharge, knocking down again a bit the integral electron flux and geomag field intensity. AR11959/ 60 will accompony us until end of January 2014, and will for sure have some surprises such as SEPs. >>

 
     

JANUARY 07- 2014:

The largest sun spot observed during the 24 11 years cycle max (complex region AR 11944 and 34 )now produced also the strongest Earth directed CME event observed in the last two years while just crossing the central solar meridian. It was just the strongest event amonng an entire serial of flares and CMEs typically following major SEP events. The flare was classified as X1.2/2N but was also very intensive, large and wide . The CME was associated to an increase of the ongoing proton storm from about 20 pfu ( January 06) to1000 pfu (!!) on January 08. Due to solen.info, the CME has a record exit speed of about 2500 km/s will arrive likely early on January 09 and will have largest and major geophysical effects My alert warning is on highest ed alert: More updates as weell as a video will follow later that day. if the time of the X1.2/2N solar event is also the time of the SEP event, Protons had again a speed near to the speed of light! first images and data from the large solar event ( the strongest SEP and Earth directed ( X class flare) and CME observed during the last 2 years- without regarding previous events )>>

 
 

 

 

               
INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX
             
                       

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT : LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:      
PROTON FLUX RISING

rising on 20140120 after 14 UTC ( event not evaluated yet)

ELECTRON FLUX RISING

rising on 20140120 after 14 UTC

     
BEGIN/ END:  

 

 

BEGIN/ END:    

 

 

     

 

 

                     

TERRESTRIAL

                   

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

                 

STATUS:

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment /

GOES satellites are at geostationary orbit and measure influences / impacts on the geomagnetic field  

QUIET

   

UNSETTLED

   
ACTIVE    
MINOR STORM    

MAJOR STORM

   

 

< the impact of the first and und usually FAST CME from AR 11959/ 60 which just rotated in on the eastern limb (currently the largest as well as most acive region) was stronger than expected and even accomponied by a short slight increase of theintegral proton flux
 
CME IMPACT /              
       
       
                       
Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>                    
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 488 km/s at 21/2051Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 21/2009Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 21/1708Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 111 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (22 Jan, 24 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (23 Jan).      
                       

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES      

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

THIS DAY (2)

PAST 24 h

ALERTS AS ISSUED BY NOAA

     
flare events

X RAY > M 5(FLARE ACTIVITY)

NONE

NONE

peaks in solar x ray emissions generally generally flare activities )
 

CME events

TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION NONE NONE
TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS are typical indicators for Coronal Mass Ejections ( CME)
 
 

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

NONE

10 cm RADIO BURSTS are typical indicators for STRONGER ERUPTIONS Coronal Mass ejections ( CME)
 
 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

an index how far the geomagnetic electron flux is disturbed mainly by solar influences such as HSS
 
                     
GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -07 nT/1555Z (USAF) NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 08 nT/1656ZUSAF) The Bz component is the value, the geomagnetic fiels density fluctuates /shifts in North/ South direction such as during CME impacts  
EFFECTIVE PROTONS NO DATA

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

           
new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report and report that represents the highest N/ S amplitude of that day          
                       
                   

TODAY`S SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE IMPACTS

             
             
INTEGRAL PARTICLE FLUX:          
PARTICLE TYPE:
YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):
PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)
TODAY:(2)

NOTICES:

 

> 10 MeV PROTON FLUX

+/- 0.1 pfu

+/- 0.1 pfu

+/- 0.1 pfu.

On 20140114, The integral proton flux had decreased to normal values.
 
  CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):  
PARTICLE TYPE:
YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):
PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)
TODAY:(2)
 

>0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>8.500 < 30.000 pfu (+) >10.200< 40.000 pfu (+)    

>2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>35 < 250 (+-) >90 < 600 (+-) RISING  
NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA

NO CURRENT DATA

UNKNOWN    
(2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values    
(4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu   ^INTEGRAL ELECTRON FLUX ( GOES- 20140118-20)  

 

 

            A New SEP with an X 1,2 flare occured at 18:52 and knocked the > 10 MEV Electrons immidiately down to almost zero. Intergral proton flux increased further to more than 100 pfu at around 19 UTC- roughly 10- 15 Minutes after the (suspected!!) SEP event time ( Its not certain whether it went of simultanously with the CME at 18:52!HOWEVER: If, then Proton speed would have reached more than 1/ 2 or even 2/ 3 of the speed of light!  
                 

CURRENTLY ACTIVE SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS (SEP)

     
orange background = actvitiy is PENDING, LATENT OR INTERFERED BY NEW SEP even
 
CURRENTLY GEOEFFECTIVE SEP:            
PHASE I = Proton impact (Southern Pole)
 
RELATED (LATEST ) SOLAR SEP EVENT:
SOLAR EVENT:
20140107/ after 19 UTC
STRONG SEP/ P-flux exceeding 1000 pfu.
PHASE II = Electron Accumulation (Northern pole)
 
CURRENT SEP STATUS: ACCUMULATING SEPs     PHASE I (protons) PHASE II (Electrons) PHASE III (Cooling)
PHASE III = End of activity ( cooling down with expectable major Earthquakes
 
                 
LATEST SEP EVENT/ event log

 

 

 

 
 

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:  
SEP event > 10 MeV PROTONS
X 1,2 2 N Flare & CME after SEP/ 20140107/18 UTC
20140107/ 19 UTC
20140114/ 14 UTC
+/ - 1000 pfu.
near the speed of light
the exact P-speed is not evaluated yet
 
SEP event 10 MeV PROTONS
associated to major flaring in AR 11944
20140106/ 06 UTC
overlapsed by following SEP
> 30 pfu.
 
solar event could not certainly be evaluated
 
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  
 
INTEGRAL>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)
 
 
 
 
pending
 
INTEGRAL 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)
 
 
 
 
pending
 

 

 

           
                 
PREVIOUS & STILL INTERFERING ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS (SEP) NONE                

SOLAR STORMS (SAPor SEP ) ARE INTENSIVE EMISSIONS OF HIGH ACCELERATED SOLAR PARTICLES ( PROTON/ ELECTRONS)

       

* SAP OR:" SEP" = SOLAR ACCELERATED (OR: ENERGETIC) PARTICLES (PR., EL.)

         

 

 

     
(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : SEP & CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS
 
SOURCES:
 
               

CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL EVENTS

LAST UPDATE

20140119  

 

 
                     
CH High Speed Solar winds (HSS) SUn SPOTS > 200 X RAY > M 5 /R3) G1 GEOMAGNETIC STORM

CME IMPACT

APPROACHING CMEs : 01?

ACTIVE SEP / PHASE II

 
        e    

SEP EVENTS>

ACTIVE SEP

> 10 MeV PROTONS > 0.1 < 0.5 pfu. (+) > 2 MeV ELECTRONS (+) < 1000 pfu (-)

ELECTRONS ARE ACTIVE ABOVE NORTHERN POLE

 
ACUMMULATION OF SUCCEEDING SEPs! 20140107/ 6:00 UTC/ 20140107/ 20140114    
 

^begin

^end

         

 

 
         

EXPERIMENTAL SEP/ VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

ORANGE BACKGROUND= " LATENCY" MEANS: THESE EFFECTS  ARE LATENT AND EXPECTABLE , BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER UNLIKELY  
             

ALERT LEVEL

         
CME IMPACT (pol +) ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES TODAY

ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

REMARKS AND/ OR PROBABILITY  

21 JANUARY 2014

 

M 5.5 -6.5

1- 2 MINOR CME (+ /protons)  

21 JANUARY 2014

 

M 5.5 -6.5

1- 2 MINOR CME (+ /protons)  

22 JANUARY 2014

 

M 5.5 -6.5

1- 2 (LATENCY) EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS  
ABOUT LATENCIES:
   
INFLUENCES:
(continuing magmatic tremors and quake swarms ! PROTON IMPACT (SEP)- DECREASING  
EFFECTING AS >
INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS(/EARTHQUAKES: HIGHER  

NOTES:* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

(In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 
                   

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

background influence:

SEP (20140107/ CME 20140120

EFFECTIVE CMEs/ int. Nrs. >

medium (+pol.)CME impact on 20140121
 

ALERT LEVEL

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS: LATEST CME IMPACT REGIONS/ =EXPECTABLE EVENT REGIONS  

CME IMPACT (pol +)

VOLCANO ACTIVITIES AND TREMORS PRIMARY REGIONS IMPACT PLATE BOUNDARIES (longitudenal):

Latest CME ( SEP impact longitides

 

INDUCED CURRENTS (-) EASTERN ATLANTIC / CANARY ISL < CURRENTLY MOST AFFECTED REGION MAIN: 30° - 150° W/ 150°- 180° W  
RADIO BLACKOUTS W- EUROPE/ E ATLANTIC

N- AMERICA ><EURASIA ><AFRICA

SECONDARY: 90°- 15 ° E  
SUDDEN (THUNDER-) STORMS/ TORNADOES (-) CENTRAL AMERICA

ATLANTIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< CARRIBEAN >< COCOS

Hemisphere: SOUTH- CENTRAL  
WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) NORTH AMERICA/ WEST   BACKGROUND EVENTS
 
WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) SOUTH AMERICA

PACIFIC ><S & N- AMERICA >< NASCA

ACCUMULATING SEPS!

 
RAPIDE MELTDOWNS OF GLACIERS OR PERMAICE EASTERN PACIFIC N- AMERICA >< INDO/ AUS ><PAC

accumulating SEPs can create rising heat within the Earth mantle that leads to strong magmatic /volcanic events

 

SEP EFFECTS:

PROTONS: GEOMAGNETIC IMPACT AND DEPRESSION (-)

 

SECONDARY REGIONS :

 
HOT SPOTS > VOLCANIC HOT SPOT ACTIVITIES/ MAGMATIC TREMORS (+) EURASIA/ EAST LONGITUDES : 90°- 15 ° E  
PROTONS > PROTON IMPACT > SOUTHERN POLE (-) EAST AFRICA/ INDIA

N- AMERICA ><EURASIA ><AFRICA

 
EARTHQUAKES > ELECTRONS HEATING TECTONIC PLATES (+)

JAPAN- INDONESIA

LONGITUDES : 180 ° - 90° E *REGIONS> see definition below  
ELECTRONS > HEAT EFFECTS/ ANOMALITIES NEAR NORTHERN POLE (+)

VOLCANO/ HOT SPOT ACTIVITY >

   
CLIMATE WEATHER >
DISTURBED SEA CURRENTS/ AND CIRCUM POLAR WIND STREAMS ( ONLY NORTH) (+) ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY >>>    
NOTES TO SEP EVENTS::               read also: NASA SCIENCE/ 2005:NASA - A New Kind of Solar Storm  
                       

 

 

 

 

2014

MONTH:

JANUARY

DAY:

20

 

 

     
     

 

 

               

ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

 

 

 
                       
GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS
Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC      
  EPICENTER/ MAP    
HIGHEST MEASURED GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE TODAY:
GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0
DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>
1- 2  

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME >
M 6.2 - NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND - 2014-01-20 02:52:45 UTC
LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >
40.63 S ; 175.78 E
DEPTH >
28 km    

 

             

RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

NONE ( DEFAULT) REAL TIME ALERTS>
 
 
EARTHQUAKE REGIONS/ FROM 180° E ON WESTWARDS

TECTONICS:

FREQUENCY/ SINCE

REGION*

EPICENTER:

NUMBER

EVENT ( link to ESMC)  
EARTHQUAKE SWATM- PUERTO RICO/ GULF OF MEXICO N & S -AM. >CARIBBEAN ><NASCA ><COCOS 20140108

"C"

EPICENTER 17 x > M 2 M 3.0 - PUERTO RICO REGION - 2014-01-20 11:58:56 UTC  
EQ SWARM / CA/ SAN ANDREAS FAULT & YELLOWSTONE SV. N-AM./ SAN ANDREAS FAULT >< J. DE FUCA>< PACIFIC 20140108

"C"

EPICENTER 03 x > M 2 M 3.2 - CENTRAL CALIFORNIA - 2014-01-20 09:32:58 UTC  
yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values
*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report  
 

 

 

                   
NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES
       
 
This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >
         

 

 

                     
TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS
             
                 
               
               
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK
EMERGED ON:
REGION
WIND SPEED
COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
                   
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK
EMERGED ON:
REGION
WIND SPEED
COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
Tropical Depression Lingling 20140118 WESTERN PACIFIC 35 MPH() 128.1° E 7.3° N
150 KM EAST OFF THE COAST SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES
SSW
TD
 
INDIAN OCEAN:
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
           
NAME/ TRACKING LINK
EMERGED ON:
REGION
WIND SPEED
COORDINATES
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
DIRECTION
TYPE/ CATH
 
Tropical Cyclone June 20140118 INDIAN OCEAN 40 MPH () 165.7° E 27.9° N 700 KM NNW OF NEW ZEALAND
S
TC
 
                     
NOAA/ Hurricane Center NASA/ GOES NOAA usno.navy.mil METEOALARM METEOSAT

reports taken from:

 

 

 

               

HEADLINES

2014

JANUARY

 

         

(BBC- 20140119) France floods: Deaths as Var inundated

Two people have died and more than 150 people have been airlifted to safety after floods hit south-eastern France, local authorities say. One man died in his basement and another was swept away in his car while a third person was missing in a boat in the Var area. Some 4,000 homes have been left without power, officials say. Local official Laurent Cayrel told a news conference that there had been "record rainfall". "The situation is very worrying, and it's not going to get any better tonight," he told reporters on Sunday, amid forecasts of further rainfall....read more,...

(volcano_discovery.com/ 201430119)El Misti volcano (Peru): signs of volcanic unrest, earthquake swarm during 14-15 January

The volcano experienced an earthquake swarm during 14-15 January, IGP reported in its latest bulletin. An increase of approx. 25% in seismic activity overall with respect to last year's average was calculated, but IGP stresses that this activity is still low and does not suggest new activity in a near future. According to the report, a total of 418 seismic events were recorded during the first half of January, most of them during the swarm that occurred on 14-15 Jan when almost 120 quakes were registered within 17 hours....read more...

(trend:az/ 20130117) Shyhzerli volcano erupts due to earthquake in Azerbaijan

Eruption of the Shyhzerli volcano - one of the most active and largest mud volcanoes in Azerbaijan, occurred due to an earthquake, head of the Mud Volcanoes Department of Geology Institute of Azerbaijani National Academy of Sciences (ANAS), Professor Adil Aliyev told Trend on Jan. 17. "The earthquake, which occurred at about 18 kilometres away from the volcano towards Shamakhi caused eruption of the Shyhzerli volcano. An earthquake occurred two or three days before the eruption," the scientist said. The earthquake and the eruption did not occur on the same day, but sometimes such cases happen, Aliyev said....read more...

(BBC- 20140118) Is our Sun falling silent?

"I've been a solar physicist for 30 years, and I've never seen anything quite like this," says Richard Harrison, head of space physics at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory in Oxfordshire. He shows me recent footage captured by spacecraft that have their sights trained on our star. The Sun is revealed in exquisite detail, but its face is strangely featureless. "If you want to go back to see when the Sun was this inactive... you've got to go back about 100 years," he says. This solar lull is baffling scientists, because right now the Sun should be awash with activity.e...read more...

 

Very strong moderately dangerous earthquake below the North Island, New Zealand (Palmerston area) – minor damage

Geonet reports a little earlier : The quake was felt strongly in both islands, and as of 8:30 pm we had received over 8000 felt reports from the public, with multiple reports of damage. Current depth and location estimates of this event place it below the interface between the subducting Pacific plate and overriding Australian plate. Maximum peak ground acceleration recorded by GeoNet instruments is about one quarter of the acceleration due to gravity (0.26 g). This measurement was recorded in Woodville. Relatively strong shaking was also recorded on the Kapiti Coast (e.g. up to 0.2 g in Paraparaumu) whereas accelerations recorded in Wellington city were less than 0.05 g. In comparison, ground motions recorded in Wellington during the recent Cook Strait earthquakes ranged up to 0.26g.

Update 04:29 UTC : Plate Tectonics at the North Island
Along the east side of New Zealand’s North Island the oceanic Pacific tectonic plate subducts westward at 4-5 cm/yr
More than a dozen slow slip events (also known as “silent” earthquakes) have been recorded in New Zealand between 2002 and 2012. Scientists have only been able to detect them recently due to the advent of global positioning system (GPS) equipment which can detect sub-centimetre changes in land movements. As part of the GeoNet project in New Zealand, continuously operating GPS have been installed throughout the country. The GeoNet cGPS data show that these silent earthquakes occurring deep under New Zealand are changing the shape of parts of the North Island over time periods of weeks to years.Read the full article here

 
(MODIS_ 20140114) FRESH ASH ON SAN MIGUEL VOLCANO

 

   
         
               

 

 

           

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

 

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

120

 

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

285-314

FLARES >

C

05

 

SOLAR FLUX (sfu.)

137.4

 

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 4.6

 

M

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

01

 

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

60- 120 nT

 

X

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

CLASS/ CONF.*

MERIDIAN

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

IMPACT SIZE:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

rotating out (JAN 18)

11948

       

 

 

 

 

 
 

11949

72° - 86° W 15° S HAX  

 

 

 

 

 
faded( Jan 18)

11950

58° - 72 ° W 16° N AXX            
 

11952

28° -42° W 32° S HSX/ CSO            
rotating out >

11953

80° - 94° W 18° S CRO/ HRX            
 

11954

51° - 65° W 07° N AXX/ BXO            
 

11955

23° - 09° E 13° S HAX/ CAO JAN- 21          
faded( Jan18)

11956

37° - 23° E 14° S AXX/ BXO JAN- 20          
 

11957

21° - 07° E 12° N CRI/ DRI JAN- 21          
 

11958

50° - 36° E 08° S HAX JAN- 23          
 

11959

58° - 44° E 24° S DAI/ EKI            
 

11960

63° - 49° E 16° S HAX/ HXX            

SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

09

 

 

         

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

               
                     

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

red letters = currently most active region            

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**            
*==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson            
                       

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

     
NUMBER POSITION*: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING MAG &remarks  

CH 600.

NORTH DECAYING 20140116 20140120- 22    
             
                     
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

           
     

 

             
ABBREVIATIONS> NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT)          
RECURR.= RECURRENT T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL ext= extended UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH            
                     

Today`s USAF report on solar activity >>

                 
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 20/0220Z from Region 1959 (S24E44). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Jan, 22 Jan, 23 Jan).      
             

OBSERVED SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY

                 

SUNSPOTS/SOLAR FLUX >

RISING

ERUPTIONS >

LOW            
FLUCTUATIONS IN SOLAR ACTIVITY

currently peaking ( yellow background):

 

             
SHORT PERIOD FLUCTUATION APPR. 1/2 YEAR FLUCTUATION 11 YEAR SUN SPOT CYCLE

60/ 120 YEAR CYCLE? (unknown)

           

OVERLAPSING CYCLES

 

MARCH 2013

 

           
 

 

 

               

LATEST SOLAR EVENTS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT:

       
    SDO- 20140120/ 22:11  

JANUARY 21- 29 2014:

most of the experts believe,"the sun is turning silent". But this statement refers only to the sun spot/ x ray activity ( which is just a highest in the entire spectrum) Ths activity in the average, t indreed was lower during the 24 solar cyle compared to the previous ones. But all these examinations only regard the number of sun spots( related to the solar flux) but not- for instance - the size of single sun spots. However. in October 2012, more and more single sun spots appeared on another significantly increasing in seize, and became the dominant - often even the only source of flares on the visible sun disc. Some of them were sparkling with hundreds of flares around the clock for weeks , others produced 4 x flares in a row. This trend continues since then and increased so far,as there were recently more and more entire complex single active regions, "doing the job" The most massive was AR 11944/43 that involved in zje first week of 2014 at least 1/ 8 of the solar disc in its activities and was the source of the strongest SEP) (ass to an X 1.2 flare) observed in the last years ( Jan 07), with a proton speed higher then 1/ 2 c and a density of 1000. pfu the strongest since? (years?) After that powerful perfomance the solar disc turned again quite for about 14 days (until January 20). Yet on January 19 2014, a new region ( AR 11959/ 60) rotated in on the eastern limb and began with intensive flares. A major flare on Jan 20 was likely then source of an ( if so...)high speed CME flanc impact today.- Jan21 , that has a significant positive polarity or proton overcharge, knocking down again a bit the integral electron flux and geomag field intensity. AR11959/ 60 will accompony us until end of January 2014, and will for sure have some surprises such as SEPs. >>

 
   

JANUARY 07- 2014:

The largest sun spot observed during the 24 11 years cycle max (complex region AR 11944 and 34 )now produced also the strongest Earth directed CME event observed in the last two years while just crossing the central solar meridian. It was just the strongest event amonng an entire serial of flares and CMEs typically following major SEP events. The flare was classified as X1.2/2N but was also very intensive, large and wide . The CME was associated to an increase of the ongoing proton storm from about 20 pfu ( January 06) to1000 pfu (!!) on January 08. Due to solen.info, the CME has a record exit speed of about 2500 km/s will arrive likely early on January 09 and will have largest and major geophysical effects My alert warning is on highest ed alert: More updates as weell as a video will follow later that day. if the time of the X1.2/2N solar event is also the time of the SEP event, Protons had again a speed near to the speed of light! first images and data from the large solar event ( the strongest SEP and Earth directed ( X class flare) and CME observed during the last 2 years- without regarding previous events )>>

 

 

 

               
INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX
             
                       

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT : LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:      
PROTON FLUX NORMAL

SEP EVENTS ON 20140104/ 22 UTC and 201407/ 19 UT-( peaking on 20140109/ 22 UTC- end: 20140112

ELECTRON FLUX NORMAL

RISING AFTER CME EVENTS ON 20140104/ 06/ 07- end: 20140112

     
BEGIN/ END:  

 

 

BEGIN/ END:    

 

 

     

 

 

                     

TERRESTRIAL

                   

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

                 

STATUS:

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment /

GOES satellites are at geostationary orbit and measure influences / impacts on the geomagnetic field  

QUIET

         

UNSETTLED

     
ACTIVE      
MINOR STORM      

MAJOR STORM

     

 

     
CME IMPACT at 20:10 UTC              
       
       
                       
Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>                    
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 345 km/s at 20/2035Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 20/1747Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 20/0610Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 193 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan).      
                       

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES      

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

THIS DAY (2)

PAST 24 h

ALERTS AS ISSUED BY NOAA

     
flare events

X RAY > M 5(FLARE ACTIVITY)

NONE

NONE

peaks in solar x ray emissions generally generally flare activities )
 

CME events

TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION NONE NONE
TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS are typical indicators for Coronal Mass Ejections ( CME)
 
 

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

NONE

NONE

10 cm RADIO BURSTS are typical indicators for STRONGER ERUPTIONS Coronal Mass ejections ( CME)
 
 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

NONE

NONE

an index how far the geomagnetic electron flux is disturbed mainly by solar influences such as HSS
 
                     
GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -07 nT/1555Z (USAF) NEUTRAL NORTHWARDS + 03 nT/1656 The Bz component is the value, the geomagnetic fiels density fluctuates /shifts in North/ South direction such as during CME impacts  
EFFECTIVE PROTONS NO DATA

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

           
new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report and report that represents the highest N/ S amplitude of that day          
                       
                   

TODAY`S SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE IMPACTS

             
             
INTEGRAL PARTICLE FLUX:          
PARTICLE TYPE:
YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):
PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)
TODAY:(2)

NOTICES:

 

> 10 MeV PROTON FLUX

+/- 0.1 pfu

+/- 0.1 pfu

+/- 0.1 pfu.

On 20140114, The integral proton flux had decreased to normal values.
 
  CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC PARTICLE FLUX (ELECTRONS):  
PARTICLE TYPE:
YESTERDAY UNTIL 24 UTC (3):
PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)
TODAY:(2)
 

>0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>10.200< 40.000 pfu (+) >18.000< 35.000 pfu (-)    

>2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>90 < 600 (+-) >90 < 900 (+) RISING  
NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA

NO CURRENT DATA

UNKNOWN    
(2) values due to readings at time of this update ( daily average: see USAF report) (3) yesterday average values    
(4) treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu (1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu   ^INTEGRAL ELECTRON FLUX ( GOES- 20140118-20)  

 

 

            A New SEP with an X 1,2 flare occured at 18:52 and knocked the > 10 MEV Electrons immidiately down to almost zero. Intergral proton flux increased further to more than 100 pfu at around 19 UTC- roughly 10- 15 Minutes after the (suspected!!) SEP event time ( Its not certain whether it went of simultanously with the CME at 18:52!HOWEVER: If, then Proton speed would have reached more than 1/ 2 or even 2/ 3 of the speed of light!  
                 

CURRENTLY ACTIVE SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS (SEP)

     
orange background = actvitiy is PENDING, LATENT OR INTERFERED BY NEW SEP even
 
CURRENTLY GEOEFFECTIVE SEP:            
PHASE I = Proton impact (Southern Pole)
 
RELATED (LATEST ) SOLAR SEP EVENT:
SOLAR EVENT:
20140107/ after 19 UTC
STRONG SEP/ P-flux exceeding 1000 pfu.
PHASE II = Electron Accumulation (Northern pole)
 
CURRENT SEP STATUS: ACCUMULATING SEPs     PHASE I (protons) PHASE II (Electrons) PHASE III (Cooling)
PHASE III = End of activity ( cooling down with expectable major Earthquakes
 
                 
LATEST SEP EVENT/ event log

 

 

 

 
 

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:  
SEP event > 10 MeV PROTONS
X 1,2 2 N Flare & CME after SEP/ 20140107/18 UTC
20140107/ 19 UTC
20140114/ 14 UTC
+/ - 1000 pfu.
near the speed of light
the exact P-speed is not evaluated yet
 
SEP event 10 MeV PROTONS
associated to major flaring in AR 11944
20140106/ 06 UTC
overlapsed by following SEP
> 30 pfu.
 
solar event could not certainly be evaluated
 
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  
 
INTEGRAL>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)
 
 
 
 
pending
 
INTEGRAL 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)
 
 
 
 
pending
 

 

 

           
                 
PREVIOUS & STILL INTERFERING ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS (SEP) NONE                

SOLAR STORMS (SAPor SEP ) ARE INTENSIVE EMISSIONS OF HIGH ACCELERATED SOLAR PARTICLES ( PROTON/ ELECTRONS)

       

* SAP OR:" SEP" = SOLAR ACCELERATED (OR: ENERGETIC) PARTICLES (PR., EL.)

         

 

 

     
(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : SEP & CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS