According to NASA, this 24th. 11 year sun spot cycle has probably a " twin peak"- the second in 2015. This project therefore will be prolongued.
THE 11 YEAR SUN SPOT CYCLE-
LAST MAXIMUM ACTIVITY IN: 2012/ 13 NEXT: APPR. in 2024
SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG
- activities and major events-
ARCHIVE/ DECEMBER 2015
note: as the solar sun spot activity is decreasing now, less major events are expected at least in the next years. (next cycle minimum expected in 2019)
.Therefor, this project is also limited now to basic updates. In July 2014 I decided to update this page only after significant event and changes and to turn this page into an monthly page that will cover significant events and can be archived then in that form.
research and documentary of the 24th solar cycle with evaluation of certain geoeffective Solar activities (esp. polarised rotating CMEs and SEPs) with coincident terrestrial events such as :
ESSENTIAL SOURCES ON SOLAR ACTIVITIES; Satellite Real Time images and data plots, weblinks etc....click here to expand and close the collapsible panel to read all..
SECTION: LATEST INFORMATION ON SOLAR ACTIVITIES
EVENT RELATED INTERPLANETARY & GEOMAGNETIC DATA PLOTS IMAGES OR VIDEO SOURCES:
(1) SOLAR REAL TIME / CURRENT SATELLITE DATA AND EVENTS
REAL TIME images links for current views on the sun surface- click to enlarge
HOW SOLAR ACTIVITY REPORTS ARE COMMONLY MADE:
SOLAR (NEAR) REAL TIME images as provided by satellites such as SDO, STEREO and SoHO are the first main source on Solar activity data: Various telescopes imaging different levels of frequencies can make sun spots, active regions visoiblöe as well as coronal holes and solar eruptions: solar prominences, flares and associated CMEs ( one exception are proton emissions those remain invisible on any usal imagery. Protons emissions and storms can be measured withe certain instruments instead ( GOES)
Second step is the interplanetary space and solar magnetic field . The Advanced Composition Explorer ( ACE) is "situated" on an geosynchronous orbit outside the geomagnetic field . This satellite has only measurement instruments onboard those deliver various data about the composition of the solar wind. Solar winds blow and circulate regularly through the interplanatary space . Coronal mass ejections and other extraordinary solar events eruptions throw large amounts of solar matter into the interplanetary space . ACE can deliver first data , how strong a possibly earth directed CME might be 1 - 2 days before those CMEs impact and answer the first primary question associated to any CME: Has the main CMEa positive or negative "POLARITY "-( =AN ESPECIAL - PROTON or ELECTRON charge)? means: is the incoming CME NEUTRAL, has it higher accelerated PROTONs or ELECTRONS. THis first question (which one of the two antagonists- the proton or electrons arrives first) determines whether a CME can fully impact into the geomagnetic field or almost NOT AT ALL!
Last not least, in the third step, the GEOSTATIONARY GOES SATELLITES measure what INDEED IMPACTS INTO THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD, basic for all space weather forecasts and forceasts as this one on my page, how strong EARTH DIRECTED CMES might unfluence nature and human civilisation!
-Go to "SOLAR CONTROL CENTER to find out more about these solar observatories or click on the many links on this page to get fisst hand informations!-
SOLAR REAL TIME SAT IMAGES :
note also: SDO, SOHO C3 and STEREO (360° VIEW°) REAL TIME IMAGES ON TOP OF THAT PAGE!
the Earth`s geomagnetic field electrons might defend the Earth even against CMEs from a X 10 flare, what poses the likely only danger , is the attack "from the other side" know as "protons events"
about:
ABOUT: SOLAR PROTON EMISSIONS (proton flares or storms etc. ) ARE RARE EVENTS . But- differently to the mostly of negative charged (electrons) CMEs , PROTON CMEs effect (finally by associated energetic events) until deep into the ground and the Earth`s interior. Proton emissions impact fully into the (negatively charged) geomagnetic field by their positive electric charge and add a positive component to it, what makes the geomag. field TEMPORARELY then also vulnerable especially for following negatively charged CMEs . The protons themselves have paradox effects: first they swallow many electrons (likely reacting with them to neutrons what causes first a "geomagnetic depression" with lower field density (lessactive, free electrons) and paradox ANTIENERGETIC effects (best describable as the "calm prior to the storm" ) .. read more in text box above
Long-range communications using high frequency (HF) radio waves (3 - 30 MHz) depend on reflection of the signals in the ionosphere. Radio waves are typically reflected near the peak of the F2 layer (~300 km altitude), but along the path to the F2 peak and back the radio wave signal suffers attenuation due to absorption by the intervening ionosphere.
Absorption is the process by which the energy of radio waves is converted into heat and electromagnetic (EM) noise through interactions between the radio wave, ionospheric electrons, and the neutral atmosphere (for a more extensive description of the absorption process see Davies, 1990). Most of the absorption occurs in the ionospheric D region (50–90 km altitude) where the product of the electron density and the electron-neutral collision frequency attains a maximum...
The precipitation of protons (as well as other ions) into the earth’s atmosphere during the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events can also create significant enhancements of ionospheric electron densities in the D region. Solar protons with energies between 1 to 200 MeV are primarily responsible for most of ionization of the D region and, consequently, for the ionospheric absorption of HF radio waves. Because of shielding of the earth by its magnetic field SEPs find easy access to the atmosphere only in high latitude regions around the earth’s geomagnetic poles. Such occurrences are therefore termed Polar Cap Absorption (PCA) events....read more...
CLICK HERE FOR INTERNATIONAL MEDIA AND NEWS SOURCES & OTHER EXTERNAL LINKS- DAILY NEWS FROM WHERE IT HAPPENS!..click here to expand and close the collapsible panel to read all..
NEWS CHANNELS:
( collecting of recommendable international news channels is still ongoing...): Note: This list is dedicated to get latest informations directly from regional news channels and sources all over the world . Alien-homepage does not take any responsibility for contents of websites posted on this list nor for their liability
(INTERNAL) find all known volcanoes worldwide on my internal GLOBAL VOLCANO MAPS - including webcams and other features- click here to expand and close the collapsible panel -
British army helicopters are being used to drop emergency supplies to the flood-hit city of York, after a month’s worth of rain fell on northern England in the course of just a few days.
Dozens of forest fires raged across northern Spain on Sunday (December 27) after strong winds hindered efforts to keep them from spreading.Some homes needed to be evacuated in the worst-affected Asturias region
In the US state of Texas, at least 11 people were killed in the Dallas area over the weekend as floods and tornadoes flattened buildings and disrupted transport for millions. Rescue operations were underway in several counties where people had been trapped in cars. Emergency workers conducted dozens of water rescues and evacuated residents from homes. Tornado watches and warnings have been issued for parts of Texas as well as Louisiana, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Mississippi.
In the US state of Texas, at least 11 people were killed in the Dallas area over the weekend as floods and tornadoes flattened buildings and disrupted transport for millions. Rescue operations were underway in several counties where people had been trapped in cars. Emergency workers conducted dozens of water rescues and evacuated residents from homes. Tornado watches and warnings have been issued for parts of Texas as well as Louisiana, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Mississippi.
Dramatic footage is coming out of Norway where there is heavy flooding after a storm in the country’s southwest. Record downpours have caused extensive damage in what is being described as the worst flooding in 200 years. But so far there are no reports of serious casualties.
More than a month’s rain has fallen over 24 hours in some areas, with the counties of Cumbria and Lancashire badly affected. At least two people have died, hundreds have been forced out of their homes and power has been cut – affecting tens of thousands.
Homes were flooded, bridges collapsed and roads were shut in Scotland and northern England on Saturday as Storm Desmond swept across the United Kingdom. The county of Cumbria was one of the worst affected areas with scores of people having to be evacuated from their homes and taken to rescue centres....read more...
More rain is forecast to be on the way but India’s fourth-largest city Chennai is already partially underwater. The situation is currently a disaster in the city’s poorer districts, but more rain could lead to several lakes and rivers which are dangerously high overflowing.
(internal report/ 20151229) increase of Microquake activity within San Andreas fault greater Los Angeles area:
Likely caused by the proton events and the ongling electron accumulation, going on since about 2012, the magmatic microquake activity had begun significantly to increase especially after January 2014 and fluctuates since then around the same level. NOw after the preious proton event, microquake activity esp in the Los angeles area again increased in number aas well as magnitude: All 4 microquajkes were felt on th surface and described by witnesses as "short, but stronger than measured" or "like a M 6 quake":
The San Andreas fault is in general a spreading zone through which - similar to a hot spot- magma can rise up, depending on the temperatures in the Earth mantle. This- if it happens- is called magma intrusion, which is generally accomponied by "inflation" effects: The gravitational difference lead to an expansion of magma rising up from the earth mantle - a natural force so strong that it can heap a up entire landscapes, islands or mountains as well it can cause large movements of tectonic plates. At the same time- similar to a refrigerator- the expanding magma gets hotter and hotter, while surging upwards for what it needs and sucks more heat from then earth mantle ( the term "hot spot" derives from that fact, that these openings get hotter than the surounding earth mantle by these effects.) The problem is less that magma might at any time reach the surface ( magma flow): Its rather; what happens if the earth mantekl cools down again? Undergound structures might collapse e again and the tectonic crust suddenly sink depper. a precess commonly known as " subduction:
20151122:Microquake activity in Yellowstone region increases: webcam >>
/ you find the report in the collapsible panel below=
>
ASSOCIATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:
RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:
note: the Tsunami report on this site here is for documentary but rather not up to date. For latest informations, check out: NOAA/ PTWC TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS
(click here to see the report of the latestknown previous TSUNAMI EVENT
Inh
LATEST (KNOWN) TSUNAMI EVENTS:
RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:
note: the Tsunami report on this site here is for documentary but rather not up to date. For latest informations, check out: NOAA/ PTWC TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS
note: the Tsunami report on this site here is for documentary but rather not up to date. For latest informations, check out: NOAA/ PTWC TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS
20151122:Microquake activity in Yellowstone region increases: >>
Microquakes > M 2 directly in the yellowstone caldera are usually rather seldom and occured yet not oftener than 1 or 2 per year. 5 microquakes with magnitidues higher than 2. 0 were measured now in November 2015. On Nov 22 for the first time- two one after another on one day:
At the same time, microquake activity also has increased in the region of the hot spot of the Canary islands. However some of the stronger quakes were felt by the people in EL Hierro, but there is still no visible sign of any surface eruption yet...
this section also refers to quake activities those typically occure since 2011 in a radius of 100- 200 km around the eifel volcano field, while the region in between stays rather calm. This typically indicates the possibiltiy of hot magma with in the area in between that radius where NO Seimic quakes occure .- Hot magma makes no seismic effects but causes tensions and seismic quakes just on its bondaries where it meets with colder rock formations. There are also regular microquakes along the river Rhine, thos are not respected here.
increased magmatic microquake activity ( since January 2014)
"C"
NOTICES: the swarm quake activity along the San Andreas fault had significantly increased in strength as well as in frequency since January- 04 2014. The swarm quake activity which as related to magma intrusion through the San Andreas fault is continuing since then on ausually low, but constant level . The r eport here will therefore be updated only , when the overall activity significantly increases or if the earthquake swarm activity shifts to other related regions near and along the San Andreas fault.
yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values
*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report
ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT:
LATEST RELATED CME(SEP IMPACT
20140107/20140218-20/ 20140225
01- 04/ 14
EXPLANATIONS>
Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.
Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./
Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest SEP/ CME . Colors from orange to light red mark GRADUAL IMPACTS OF MULTIPLE CMEs CLUSTERS.
HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST>
INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions!
STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS
The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER a LATENCY period due to CME IMPACT on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES within the RED until the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Read "latency remarks"
REGIONS
REGION "A"
REGION "B"(1)
REGION "B"(2)
REGION "C"
REGION"
D"
REGION "E" (1)
REGION "E" (2)
REGION "F"
REGIONS COVERED BY LATEST CME IMPACT>
EASTERN EURASIA-- INDONESIA-WESTERN PACIFIC PHILIPPINES--AUSTRALIA WEST
JAPAN/EAST- AUSTRALIA/ (EAST), PNG. NZL
ALEUT./ KAMCHATKA- EASTERN PACIFIC/ HAWAII
WESTERN USA+ WEST COAST- EASTERN PACIFIC- CANADA-ALASKA
GULF OF MEXICO/ PANAMERICA/CA./ CENTRAL USA/ SOUTH - AMERICA- WEST
, EASTERN ATLANTIC/ (CANARIES/ ICELAND)- N & S- AMERICA/ EAST
CENTRAL (WEST) EUROPE/ AFRICA
INDIA & INDIAN OCEAN- CENTR: EURASIA, AFRICA (EAST), ARABIA ASIA MINOR
Several people have been killed in the southern Brazilian city of Mariana after two dams holding waste from an iron ore mine burst. A flood of slurry engulfed dozens of homes and buried vehicles.The mine is owned by Samarco, a joint venture between top iron ore mining companies: Brazil’s Vale and Australia’s BHP Billiton. Samarco said the reason why the dams burst has not yet been determined. BHP Billiton’s CEO told a news conference in Melbourne that a full assessment of casualties and damage had been hampered by darkness. Army units in Brazil were helping the search and rescue efforts on Friday.
Two passengers were injured when a British Airways plane caught fire just before take off from McCarran International Airport in Las Vegas. Emergency shutes were deployed to evacuate the 159 passengers and 13 crew on board. Video and photographs showed the Boeing 777 engulfed in flames and a plume of thick black smoke coming from it.
LATEST MAJOR TROPICAL STORMS & HEAVY WEATHERS
(click here to see previous heavy weather reports of the current month)
A big low pressure area that was affecting Iberian Peninsula since November 1, 2015, has brought heavy downpours to many parts of Spain, causing river overflows and flash floods across the country. 4 people have been reported dead and another 5 injured, as of November 3.
Major floods hit parts of central and southeastern Texas, as of October 30, 2015, media reports. Several tornado events, some of which have yet to be confirmed, have been observed to inflict significant damage south and east of Houston, across the eastern Harris County and the cities of D'Hanis and Floresville. 6 people have died so far, and 2 have gone missing.
Severe thunderstorm accompanied with heavy rains continues to sweep Iberian Peninsula, as of November 1, 2015. Severe flooding claimed one life so far, in Algarve region, Portugal. The weather system is currently wreaking havoc across Spain, where severe flash floods are expected to follow, as well. A big low pressure field has brought intense rainfall to the Iberian Peninsula, starting November 1, when the rains caused flooding across southern Portugal.>>
TROPICAL STORMS/
note: from September 2014 on, this report will contain / collect only data about hurricanes with windspeeds above 50 MPH. For latest developing tropical storms, visit wunderground., com! datasets with a green background are hurricanes those are already over!
Seismic unrest has been detected at the volcano. On 15 Dec, VSI raised the alert level of the volcano from 1 to 2 ("waspada", watch), on a scale of 1-4. It is recommended not to approach the crater within a radius of 1.5 km, as unexpected explosions could occur
volcano-discovery/ 20151216: Fuego volcano (Guatemala) activity update: Another phase of strong increased activity (paroxysm) has started at the volcano yesterday. The volcano observatory reports that explosions have become more intense and frequent, 4-6 per hour, on the evening of 14 Dec. Ash plumes rose up to 1 km and loud shock waves accompanied many of them. Two new lava flows, 800 m long, have started to head towards the Santa Teresa (west flank) and Trinidad (south flank) drainages. This would be the 13th paroxysmal episode during 2015, and if activity increases further, dangerous pyroclastic flows are likely to occur in the coming hours / days. In particular, river beds and valleys at the feet of the mountain should be avoided at all times, as these are high-risk areas.
webcam >
xx
(click here to see previous volcanism reports of the current month) including official reports (global volcanism program/ Smithsonian/ USGS
Seismic unrest has been detected at the volcano. On 15 Dec, VSI raised the alert level of the volcano from 1 to 2 ("waspada", watch), on a scale of 1-4. It is recommended not to approach the crater within a radius of 1.5 km, as unexpected explosions could occur
volcano-discovery/ 20151216: Fuego volcano (Guatemala) activity update: Another phase of strong increased activity (paroxysm) has started at the volcano yesterday. The volcano observatory reports that explosions have become more intense and frequent, 4-6 per hour, on the evening of 14 Dec. Ash plumes rose up to 1 km and loud shock waves accompanied many of them. Two new lava flows, 800 m long, have started to head towards the Santa Teresa (west flank) and Trinidad (south flank) drainages. This would be the 13th paroxysmal episode during 2015, and if activity increases further, dangerous pyroclastic flows are likely to occur in the coming hours / days. In particular, river beds and valleys at the feet of the mountain should be avoided at all times, as these are high-risk areas.
20151217: activity update: Effusive activity increased yesterday, when 3 lava flows descended from the summit, reaching 1500 m length on the southern flank (Trinidad ravine), 1500 m on the SW flank (Las Lajas) and 1200 m on the western flank (Santa Teresa ravine). Over night, activity seems to have decreased a bit....read more...
The NE crater started again to produce puffs of ash, generating small plumes drifting southwest.The volcano is at the moment calm. During Wednesday, the initially strong ash-venting activity from the NE crater decreased and stopped yesterday. ...read more... - etna live webcam >> more etna webcams
Small ash emissions occurred this morning at 05:13 local time, producing a plume that rose approx. 500 m from the volcano's summit.
(related: Canlaon volcano (Philippines): new cracks in crater area after 6 Feb 2012 earthquake: new cracks in crater area after 6 Feb 2012 earthquake Tuesday, Feb 21, 2012 Three 50 m wide cracks have appeared on on the upper flank of Canlaon volcano (also spelled Kanlaon) near the crater after the M6.7 earthquake on Negros island in the Philippines on 6 Feb 2012. ... [more]
After only about 12 hours since this morning's lava fountaining episode, another paroxysm occurred this evening. Activity from the Voragine (and minor activity from New SE crater) had in fact not ceased at all after the peak of the paroxysm this morning, but remained with intense strombolian explosions and ash emissions. Tremor had remained elevated. Starting around 21:10 local time, this activity once more becan to increase strongly and produced tall lava fountains (probably near or even more than 1000 m high) around 21:40. Activity started to decrease again after 21:55 local time, but until now remains rather intense....read more...
A series of at least 4 small explosions occurred at the volcano this morning, at 07:49, 08:17, 08:42, and 08:55 local time. The eruptions, in particular the last and largest one, produced steam and ash plumes that rose up to approx. 1 km from the summit.
Light ash fall was observed in the community of El Papalonal and near the Momotombo geothermal plant to the SW of the volcano. (find video in panel below)
A series of at least 4 small explosions occurred at the volcano this morning, at 07:49, 08:17, 08:42, and 08:55 local time. The eruptions, in particular the last and largest one, produced steam and ash plumes that rose up to approx. 1 km from the summit.
Light ash fall was observed in the community of El Papalonal and near the Momotombo geothermal plant to the SW of the volcano.
A phase of elevated activity has started at the volcano since 29 November. The largest event so far occurred this morning at 07:07 local time, when a strong explosion produced an ash plume that rose approx. 2-3 km and (probably) a small pyroclastic flow. Ash fall occurred in nearby villages and towns including San Marcos Palajunoj, and Finca La Florida.
During the preceding days, several smaller, but significantly larger than average explosions occurred from the Caliente lava dome, which on average had only been producing 2-3 small explosions per day before.
The following video was made on the evening of 28 November and shows one of the explosions. Several similar ones followed during the night...read more...
This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >
20141216: please note: NASA was recently again reorganising their website contents: So- some many or even all elder archived images , embedded contents and links posted on external websites such as mine will maybe not work anymore . Updates are made in this report as soon as available, but i just cant look all trough to update the links. Thus: here just the links to the current NASA plot archives: NASA( space weather plots as archived since 1966
(1.1.) LATEST AND CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL ALERTS
1.1.2. (related) NASA AND NOAA REAL TIME DATA PLOTS:
click here for more REAL TIME FEATURES (NASA satellite data)
(2.0) ALL SOLAR / TERRESTRIAL (NEAR TO) REAL TIME DATA AND PLOTS:
HEAVY EARTHQUAKE FORECAST
update yourself!
!if the integral electron flux / plot below) should SUDDENLY SHARPLY DROP, STRONGER MAJOR SUBDUCTION EARTHQUAKES become most probable! (globally!) You won`t believe that? Then test it!
Rising integral proton (= proton stotrm) = magmatic and hot spot intrusion with minor earthquakes
( see " NASA earth observatory / land surface temperature anomalies above). The temperature anomalies on the Northern hemisphere became more intensive in February 2015 , with Hudson Bayas in the past years still representing the coldest area and with temperatures in Sibiria in Russia exceeeding those in central and Southern Europe. Part of this anomalies are created by solar SEPs . But scientists also noted an increased shifting of the magnetic poles. Noting the last available report it seems however unlikely, that the Northern magnetic pole shifts towards Siberia as this official report claimed. Its rather likely or seems so, that it has already mainly shifted into Hudson |Bay * where we also have the relatively coldest region on the Northern hemisphere since years. The phenomenon of megnetic field shifting is known since the 60th and was since then observed by a group of american researchers,whonfirst came to the conclusion that the Northern magnetic field would move with expontial speeed/means first just some centimeters per year , than meters ...( but the official scientist still said, that those fluctuations would be quite normal
please note: this section is only updated after significant major events/ from Nov 2015 on, the text fields in the second row will contain all alerts of the current month as issued by NOAA
Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R Serial Number: 680 Issue Time: 2015 Dec 28 1306 UTC SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst Begin Time: 2015 Dec 28 1146 UTC Maximum Time: 2015 Dec 28 1206 UTC End Time: 2015 Dec 28 1231 UTC Duration: 45 minutes Peak Flux: 370 sfu Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 110 sfu www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.
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20151220: strong CME impact with positive charged elements from filament eruption on 20151218
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(by solen.info)The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active on December 11 under the influence of a high speed stream from CH704. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 571 and 664 km/s.
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click here for latest GOES hp plots and data (current month):
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Space Weather Message Code: WATA30 Serial Number: 133 Issue Time: 2015 Dec 28 2129 UTC WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day: Dec 29: None (Below G1) Dec 30: G2 (Moderate) Dec 31: G1 (Minor) THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms. Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible. Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes. Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
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Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06 Serial Number: 388 Issue Time: 2015 Dec 21 0051 UTC ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6 Threshold Reached: 2015 Dec 21 0050 UTC Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC Active Warning: Yes NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms. Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible. Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes. Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
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Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 2739
Issue Time: 2015 Dec 12 1457 UTC
EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 2738
Valid From: 2015 Dec 09 2005 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2015 Dec 13 0100 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
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Space Weather Message Code: WATA20 Serial Number: 683 Issue Time: 2015 Dec 01 0701 UTC CANCEL WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted Cancel Serial Number: 682 Original Issue Time: 2015 Nov 28 2044 UTC Comment: Conditions are no longer favorable for geomagnetic storming. www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
click here for phase III alerts
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click here for latest electron event data (current month)
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Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3 Serial Number: 2298 Issue Time: 2015 Dec 28 1221 UTC CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu Continuation of Serial Number: 2297 Begin Time: 2015 Dec 21 1515 UTC Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 7792 pfu
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.
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Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3 Serial Number: 2295 Issue Time: 2015 Dec 25 1156 UTC CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2294 Begin Time: 2015 Dec 21 1515 UTC Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 4506 pfu
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Issue Time: 2015 Dec 24 0944 UTC CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
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Issue Time: 2015 Dec 23 1156 UTC CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
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Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3 Serial Number: 2291 Issue Time: 2015 Dec 21 1530 UTC ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu Threshold Reached: 2015 Dec 21 1515 UTC Station: GOES-13 www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.
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20151218: Electron 2MeV integral flux droppping
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> 2 MeV electrons. disturbance after CME impact
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Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 2287
Issue Time: 2015 Dec 12 0846 UTC
CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2286
Begin Time: 2015 Dec 07 0945 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 6095 pfu
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.
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Electron 2MeV integral flux dropping after exceeding < 1000 pfu.
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>fluctuatingElectron 2MeV integral flux (< >1000 pfu.)
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Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 2283
Issue Time: 2015 Dec 08 0503 UTC
CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2282
Begin Time: 2015 Dec 07 0945 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 3876 pfu
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.
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20151207: >Electron 2MeV integral flux exceeding 1000 pfu.
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>Electron 2MeV Integral Flux began to drop
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Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3 Serial Number: 2280 Issue Time: 2015 Dec 03 1406 UTC CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu Continuation of Serial Number: 2279 Begin Time: 2015 Dec 02 1610 UTC Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1421 pfu www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems. Space Weather Message Code:
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ALTEF3 Serial Number: 2279 Issue Time: 2015 Dec 02 1627 UTC ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu Threshold Reached: 2015 Dec 02 1610 UTC Station: GOES-13 www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.
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click here for latest proton event data (current month
2015
DECEMBER
date
events/ activity changes
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20151228:/ after 14 UTC: NEW MAJOR SOLAR PROTON EVENT
20151228: A new short solar proton event occured on 20151228 after 13 UTC shortly after 10 UTC. First protons arrived at STEREO AHEAD at 1209:07 UTC . Proton enhancement in the geomagnetic orbit was registered by GOES on 20151228 after 1s UTC. ITs not over yet but > 10 MeV proton integral flux yet not exceeded 10 pfu. The new proton event (SEP) will first intensify magmaintrusion from hot spots. With the expected electron accumulation temperature anomalies on the Northern hemisphere are likely to continue. If the proton stoirm should not exceed 10 pfu. these effects are likely to be not every strong
20151223: flare activity was very low over the past 3 month and increased no untypically higher just during the winter soltice ( when it was rather most calm in the past years) AR 12470 is past week the only major visible sun spotspot group on the solar disc but was not very active . On 20151222 , AR 12473 and 121472 appeared on the eastern solar limb . AR 12473 is larger in sunspots and is also very active in producing C flares . On December 23 , after 00:40 it produced a M4.7 flare with a radio burst and a major CME heading towards the Southeast which has some earth directed components, those will arrive around Dec 25. AR 12473 will accompony us for the next 20 days and could produce some more major events during that time. It might also be a candidate for a major SEP
20151218: Several filament eruptions were observed on the Sun, those ejected positive charger matter into space and towards the Earth. The impact on 20151220 was unexpected strong and caused a major geomagnetic storm . The geomagnetic field density ( hp values) on December 20 exceeded 200 nT ( nanoTesla)
1. 2. SOLAR EVENTS images and data:
images of one of the strongest proton events in decades on 20160618/ 20:/ STREO is no functional)
click here for images and data of previous major solar and terrestrial events
1. 2. SOLAR EVENTS images and data:
significant solar events descriptions:
20151214:(images 01- 5 below) a strange event occured this afternoon. The source of the sudden impulses after 12 and after 15 UTC is not clear. Likely it has to do with a strong eruption this morning , which was only visible in the infrared spectrum on Stereo , indicating a major proton event But since there is proton were yet measured reaching the geomagnetic field , a flare on the Western solar limb on December 11- 13 might have caused a CME -. . The impuls reached more than 150 nT and was followed by another shock (perharps something like protons or a gravitational wave) that knocked down the gemomagnetic intensity shortly much below 0 (see images 1- 3 below). Yet it is not clear, how this event will envolve to a geomagnetic storm
20150622:2 Fully halo CME after + M 5 flare in AR 12371 and 1^filament eruption afterwards 20150618: M3 event in AR 12371/ 20150619: filament eruption; 20150621: M flare - AR 12371
Impact of 2 FULLY HALO CMEs after M + 5 flare and filament eruption on 20150624- 25
update/ 20150626: AR 12371 is meanhile at about 60° West and will rotate out until the end of June. On June 26 however- AR 12371 produced another M 8 LDE event, which again was associated to an SEP. Integral proton flux rose again above 10 pfu after the event. The overall situation is of course very strange and difficult to predict : we have still an ongoing S1 protons storm but with > 2 MeV electrons exceeding 1.000 pfu. high electron values at the same time. The impact of the latest CME on June 25 was so strong, that it exceeded far the limits of the graphic
update: 20150622: NEW AND STRONG SEP EVENT!! STRONGEST SEP since September 2014
On 20150621, another stronger SEP followed the first one on June 18 and values are currently exceeding 100 pfu. what is a strong event. Unfortunately, both STEREO Satellites are not available, inoperative or damaged. Their objective can make infrared images of the sun and are therefor the only ones that can make it possible to localise from where about in the Sun and in which direction a SEP occured. The emitted protons are not visible on any telescope, but as they heat up and accelerate gases from the solar corona on that point where they break through it ( what leads to spectacular heat eruptions) these images make it possible to track back from where and at which time about the SEP was radially accelerated ( what for sure happens deeper within the sun , what makes them just totally different to any sun spot related flare activity which always occure on or near to the surface of the Sun)
At that time / sometime prior to 3 UTC) when the first SEP on June 18 occured, there is one hot flare and eruption visible on SoHOs LASCO 3 , which also covers the infrared spectrum. The AR producing the event is AR 12376 on the western solar limb. But no satellite has any image showing the eruption, that might have been the source of the second stronger SEP that occured then sometimes prior to 15 UTC on June 21 . So also the first theory might be false. and the complex structure with several fastly changing Coronal holes around AR 12371 might have been the source of both SEPs. The fact that this region was in an optimal earth facing position during the second SEP ( from where the radial emitted protons have then usually the highest speed up to almost light velocity) also explains why these protons have still no effect on the electron accumulation and flux : they just would be still too fast and therefore would circulate within the geomagnetic field around a wider polar orbit, where the don`t get in touch yet with the deeper laying and yet discharging electrons.
CHECKING out the activities on hot spot volcanoes after the event, first of all Sinabung but also the the canary hotspot seems ( due to my current knowledge) to be the only one those have reacted yet on that. Since June 21 , magmatic quakes near to the hot spot south of El Hierro itself increased again. On June 21, also ith 4 km below sea surface also the MOST shallow quake was registered below EL Teide and near to teneriffe since that new activity phase had begun in December 2013! Until June 25, here where two quakes more at the same location . But IGN couldn`t ( or does not want) tell in which depth these magmatic boosts have occured.Means nothing else thans that magma levels in the volcanic system below the Teide massive first time have reached a level of less than 4 km below sealavel- what is - AS I BELIEVE- very CRITICAL!
HOT SPOT BEHAVIOUR
NASA however published an image that seem to show a magnetic structure around AR 12371, which embraces a quarter of the Sun ( image 3 below)
20150618/ after 3:30 UTC: I have almost overseen that a new medium strong SEP event occured on this day. The density of integral protons rose sharply above 10 pfu soon after the event, dropped first back almost to normal levels late on June 21 ( 20150621) but remained than at an increased level of o.8- 1.0 pfu 24 hours later at time of this update ( 20150621). It can currently also be observed, that the intgegral electron flux and the protons flux are ate higher valires AT THE SAME time, But however: The electron flux is expected to drop on the next days (at least on the instruments) as active protons just neutralize the effects of electrons for a while ..
20150618: a new and unexpected large and active region (AR 12371) has rotated in on the Eastern limb: The AR contains many and relative large sun spots and developed three groups each with with a significant prenumbras, and produced several flares during the past day A major earth directed CME was unleashed during an explosive event that occured on 20150618 after 17: 50 UTC. Another fully halo (= earth directed) CME was produced, while the AR has reached the solar meridian and flaring in this region again exceeded M level on 20150621, shortly before this update. No of both M flares and cMEs was the source of both protons events as decribed above
on 20150619:a large filament eruption occured form the edge of the large Coronal hole just Southwest of Ar 12371 and produced another Earth direceted CME. so there are at least three major CME impacts excpected for June 21, 22 u and 23, those likely will cause major geomagnetic disturbances
20150606: the active sunspot group 12361/62 rotated in on the eastern limb and is producing major flares those are currently- due to the low background x ray flux still on c level but expected to increase in strength
ELECTRON ACCUMULATION( POSSIBLE FAILURES OF MICROELECTRONICS> AIR TRAFFIC?) INDUCTION OF HIGH CURRENTS AND VOLTAGES (POWER GRIDS A.O.) (-)
20150622: > 10 MeV Protons > 1.000 pfu!
further outlook:
SUDDEN MELTDOWN OF PERMAICE including METHANHYDRATES (MAGMATIC)
M 5.5. - > M 9.0 ( LATENT !!)
3 (SUBDUCTION )
EXPRECTABLE SEP PHASE III/ DROPPING ELECTRON FLUX/ ELECTRON DISCHARGE !
SEP EFFECTS:
PROTONS OR + ION IMPACT : ELECTRON DEPRESSION (-)
ABOUT "LATENCY" (orange) >
HOT SPOTS >
VOLCANIC HOT SPOT ACTIVITIES/ MAGMATIC INTRUSION ()
PROTONS >
PROTON IMPACT AT SOUTHERN POLE /INCREASING EARTH MANTLE TEMPERATURE
NOTES: ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 with green background is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable -. * Earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!
CIRCUMPOLAR TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (-) TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS, HEAVY RAIN OR HEATWAVES, DROUGHTS ( NORTHERN HEMISPHERE ONLY) ()
remarks>
* latent potential for earthquakes with magnitudes higher than M 9.0! Some major catastrophic earthquake might likely happen, when effects of accumulated SEPs diminuish /.> 10 MeV electron accumulation will be neutralised, what is indicated , when electron energy suddenly will sharply drop at its end
accumulating SEPs can create rising heat within the Earth mantle that leads to strong magmatic /volcanic events
EASTERN EUROPE
AFRICA>< EURASIA><INDO/AUS><PAC
CENTRAL & WESTEN PACIFIC
AMERICA >< PACIFIC >< INDO/ AUS
ABOUT SEPs:
LAST MAJOR PROTON IMPACT (PHASE I)
ELECTRON ACCUMULATION (PHASE II)
FINAL DISCHARGE (PHASE III) :
GEOPHYSICAL EFFECTS:
GEOPHYSICAL EFFECTS:
GEOPHYSICAL EFFECTS:
SOLAR ACCELERATED AND EMMITTED PROTONS IMMIGRATE THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD AND ITS POLAR ORBIT
THE PROTONS CREATE AN ADDITIONAL GRAVITY PULL> THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ATTRACKTS AN EQUIVALENT OF ENERGETIC ELECTRONS FROM THE SOLAR MAGNETIC FIELTO NEUTRALISE THIS + CHARGE
AFTER THE PROTONS NOW ALSO ELECTRONS HAVE LOST THEIR CINETIC ENERGY THROUGH HEAT FRICTION. THE ACCUMULATION COLLAPSES THE EARTH MANTLE - PREVIOUSLY HEATED UP BY THE PROTON IMPACT and ELECTRON EFFECTS.- COOLS DOWN AND CONTRACTS AGAIN.
HEAT EFFECTS ON EARTH CORE AND MANTLE: VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES / MAINLY ON HOT SPOTS( SOUTH POLAR TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (-)
TORNADOES, THUNDERSTORMS, VOLCANIC SURFACE ACTIVITIES TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (m. northern Hemisphere)
> MAJOR AND potential CATASTROPHIC SUBDUCTION QUAKES with magnitudes (> M 8 or even > M 9 ) high enough to create a substantial and widespread Tsunami, if quakes occure subseas.
(by ESA: )Mission LISA Pathfinder will test in flight the concept of low-frequency gravitational wave detection: it will put two test masses in a near-perfect gravitational free-fall, and control and measure their motion with unprecedented accuracy. LISA Pathfinder will use the latest technology to minimise the extra forces on the test masses, and to take measurements. The inertial sensors, the laser metrology system, the drag-free control system and an ultra-precise micro-propulsion system make this a highly unusual mission. LISA Pathfinder is an ESA mission, which will also carry a NASA payload....read more
A new study from the team behind NASA's Mars Science Laboratory/Curiosity has confirmed that Mars was once, billions of years ago, capable of storing water in lakes over an extended period of time.
Using data from the Curiosity rover, the team has determined that, long ago, water helped deposit sediment into Gale Crater, where the rover landed more than three years ago. The sediment deposited as layers that formed the foundation for Mount Sharp, the mountain found in the middle of the crater today.
"Observations from the rover suggest that a series of long-lived streams and lakes existed at some point between about 3.8 to 3.3 billion years ago, delivering sediment that slowly built up the lower layers of Mount Sharp," said Ashwin Vasavada, Mars Science Laboratory project scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, and co-author of the new Science article to be published Friday, Oct. 9.
Veröffentlicht am 03.10.2015 In the previous Space News episode, we discussed recent, astonishing images of the surface of the dwarf planet Pluto. Many other surprises have already been revealed in the data thus far released from NASA’s New Horizons mission. Today, physicist Eugene Bagashov discusses what we have learned thus far about Pluto’s atmosphere and the larger Plutonian environment.
for longer time I have not updated myself on the latest of NASA curiosity rover Mars mission. Now I found some articles with some indeed strange images Curiosity sent to Earth
3. The "crocodile" This nosy crocodile once fully turned into stone , when it lurked up to the sky , when obviously something strange happened, we might call " Medusa effect"
my favourite ones: parts of destroyed buildings? Stone figures similar to the ones found on Eastern islands:
A group of youtube people are just waiting for the next super high resolution image the rover sends home, most people as obviously also the NASA staff does oftenly not take much notice of. Curiosity`s images have such a high resolution that you can search and magnify on them each detail and its just incredible what people find on these images:
Just watch the video( right side): I just can`t prove whether the "vehicle" oin this photo might be a a fake!>
Beside the jokes made upon these discoveries like the video with " the green frog" that survived on Mars after its water channels had dried out, some of these dicoveries just knocked me out of my shoes. Best source for those images on youtube is the channel what`s up in the sky.
However: Its meanwhile in all news and obviously noone could approve yet , that those images would have been faked with an photo editing software!
SPECIAL REPORTS: FREAKY IMAGES & VIDEOS
VARIOUS:
data for this reports and forecasts are eclusively taken by reliable sources such as NASA, NOAA and others.
all forecasts are without guarantee! Alle Vorhersagen sind ohne Gewähr!
July 2014: note: as the solar sun spot activity is decreasing now, major events will get less at least until May June 2014 .Therefor, this project is also limited now to basic updates. In July 2014 I decided to update this page only after significant event and changes and to turn this page into an monthly page that will cover significant events and can be archived then in that form.
January 25- 2014:
2013, after 2 years after the second major> M 9 Earthquake had taken place within on decade and after two years of statistic evaluation and comparation of solar and terestrial data, it became clear , that socalled SEPS would be the solar feature I was looking , being that solar feature, that indeed can even have signifiant and even strongest related geophysical effects.
Now in early 2014, the peak off the sun spots cycle seems to be over and related activity visibly have decreased . I don`t expect many stronger and significant solar events for the next half year.
Recently I decided, to close the ongoing solar and terrestrial documentary at this point in this form , as it was made until now., whith complete data and event evaluation as its required for any scientific work . This I did to get this project to a point, that its results would be available and evaluable for further report and can be also a basic for further scientific research
Nevertheless as observations and evaluations have shown , that esp. the socalled SEPs ( solar events with proton emissions) are the almost only geoeffective known type of solar event) those do even have extremely strong and complex effects on the earth body , those only and best can be described just with the phrase- used by NASA- "theoretically can do everything". This is- since the usually seldom SEPs turned out to be the only solar activities those were in all cases coincident with major catastrophic earthquakes such as 2014 and 2011 - what this documentary now focusses on. SEPs however do happen MOST frequently during the maximum of the 11 years solar sun spot cycle (last in 2012(13) , but occure also in between but just in lower number.
So I will continue to watch over all these solar data and event and try to provide a full report and complete coverage in time if any furthe major event should take place ..
so the solar teerrestrial blog will be continued in another simplified and limited form:
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