According to NASA, this 24th. 11 year sun spot cycle has probably a " twin peak"- the second in 2015. This project therefore will be prolongued.
THE 11 YEAR SUN SPOT CYCLE-
LAST MAXIMUM ACTIVITY IN: 2012/ 13 NEXT: APPR. in 2024
SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG
- activities and major events-
ARCHIVE
FEBRUARY 2015
note: as the solar sun spot activity is decreasing now, less major events are expected at least in the next years. (next cycle minimum expected in 2019)
.Therefor, this project is also limited now to basic updates. In July 2014 I decided to update this page only after significant event and changes and to turn this page into an monthly page that will cover significant events and can be archived then in that form.
research and documentary of the 24th solar cycle with evaluation of certain geoeffective Solar activities (esp. polarised rotating CMEs and SEPs) with coincident terrestrial events such as :
ESSENTIAL SOURCES ON SOLAR ACTIVITIES; Satellite Real Time images and data plots, weblinks etc....click here to expand and close the collapsible panel to read all..
SECTION: LATEST INFORMATION ON SOLAR ACTIVITIES
EVENT RELATED INTERPLANETARY & GEOMAGNETIC DATA PLOTS IMAGES OR VIDEO SOURCES:
(1) SOLAR REAL TIME / CURRENT SATELLITE DATA AND EVENTS
REAL TIME images links for current views on the sun surface- click to enlarge
HOW SOLAR ACTIVITY REPORTS ARE COMMONLY MADE:
SOLAR (NEAR) REAL TIME images as provided by satellites such as SDO, STEREO and SoHO are the first main source on Solar activity data: Various telescopes imaging different levels of frequencies can make sun spots, active regions visoiblöe as well as coronal holes and solar eruptions: solar prominences, flares and associated CMEs ( one exception are proton emissions those remain invisible on any usal imagery. Protons emissions and storms can be measured withe certain instruments instead ( GOES)
Second step is the interplanetary space and solar magnetic field . The Advanced Composition Explorer ( ACE) is "situated" on an geosynchronous orbit outside the geomagnetic field . This satellite has only measurement instruments onboard those deliver various data about the composition of the solar wind. Solar winds blow and circulate regularly through the interplanatary space . Coronal mass ejections and other extraordinary solar events eruptions throw large amounts of solar matter into the interplanetary space . ACE can deliver first data , how strong a possibly earth directed CME might be 1 - 2 days before those CMEs impact and answer the first primary question associated to any CME: Has the main CMEa positive or negative "POLARITY "-( =AN ESPECIAL - PROTON or ELECTRON charge)? means: is the incoming CME NEUTRAL, has it higher accelerated PROTONs or ELECTRONS. THis first question (which one of the two antagonists- the proton or electrons arrives first) determines whether a CME can fully impact into the geomagnetic field or almost NOT AT ALL!
Last not least, in the third step, the GEOSTATIONARY GOES SATELLITES measure what INDEED IMPACTS INTO THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD, basic for all space weather forecasts and forceasts as this one on my page, how strong EARTH DIRECTED CMES might unfluence nature and human civilisation!
-Go to "SOLAR CONTROL CENTER to find out more about these solar observatories or click on the many links on this page to get fisst hand informations!-
SOLAR REAL TIME SAT IMAGES :
note also: SDO, SOHO C3 and STEREO (360° VIEW°) REAL TIME IMAGES ON TOP OF THAT PAGE!
the Earth`s geomagnetic field electrons might defend the Earth even against CMEs from a X 10 flare, what poses the likely only danger , is the attack "from the other side" know as "protons events"
about:
ABOUT: SOLAR PROTON EMISSIONS (proton flares or storms etc. ) ARE RARE EVENTS . But- differently to the mostly of negative charged (electrons) CMEs , PROTON CMEs effect (finally by associated energetic events) until deep into the ground and the Earth`s interior. Proton emissions impact fully into the (negatively charged) geomagnetic field by their positive electric charge and add a positive component to it, what makes the geomag. field TEMPORARELY then also vulnerable especially for following negatively charged CMEs . The protons themselves have paradox effects: first they swallow many electrons (likely reacting with them to neutrons what causes first a "geomagnetic depression" with lower field density (lessactive, free electrons) and paradox ANTIENERGETIC effects (best describable as the "calm prior to the storm" ) .. read more in text box above
Long-range communications using high frequency (HF) radio waves (3 - 30 MHz) depend on reflection of the signals in the ionosphere. Radio waves are typically reflected near the peak of the F2 layer (~300 km altitude), but along the path to the F2 peak and back the radio wave signal suffers attenuation due to absorption by the intervening ionosphere.
Absorption is the process by which the energy of radio waves is converted into heat and electromagnetic (EM) noise through interactions between the radio wave, ionospheric electrons, and the neutral atmosphere (for a more extensive description of the absorption process see Davies, 1990). Most of the absorption occurs in the ionospheric D region (50–90 km altitude) where the product of the electron density and the electron-neutral collision frequency attains a maximum...
The precipitation of protons (as well as other ions) into the earth’s atmosphere during the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events can also create significant enhancements of ionospheric electron densities in the D region. Solar protons with energies between 1 to 200 MeV are primarily responsible for most of ionization of the D region and, consequently, for the ionospheric absorption of HF radio waves. Because of shielding of the earth by its magnetic field SEPs find easy access to the atmosphere only in high latitude regions around the earth’s geomagnetic poles. Such occurrences are therefore termed Polar Cap Absorption (PCA) events....read more...
CLICK HERE FOR INTERNATIONAL MEDIA AND NEWS SOURCES & OTHER EXTERNAL LINKS- DAILY NEWS FROM WHERE IT HAPPENS!..click here to expand and close the collapsible panel to read all..
NEWS CHANNELS:
( collecting of recommendable international news channels is still ongoing...): Note: This list is dedicated to get latest informations directly from regional news channels and sources all over the world . Alien-homepage does not take any responsibility for contents of websites posted on this list nor for their liability
(INTERNAL) find all known volcanoes worldwide on my internal GLOBAL VOLCANO MAPS - including webcams and other features- click here to expand and close the collapsible panel -
note: the Tsunami report on this site here is for documentary but rather not up to date. For latest informations, check out: NOAA/ PTWC TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS
this section also refers to quake activities those typically occure since 2011 in a radius of 100- 200 km around the eifel volcano field, while the region in between stays rather calm. This typically indicates the possibiltiy of hot magma with in the area in between that radius where NO Seimic quakes occure .- Hot magma makes no seismic effects but causes tensions and seismic quakes just on its bondaries where it meets with colder rock formations
NOTICES: the swarm quake activity along the San Andreas fault had significantly increased in strength as well as in frequency since January- 04 2014. The swarm quake activity which as related to magma intrusion through the San Andreas fault is continuing since then on ausually low, but constant level . The r eport here will therefore be updated only , when the overall activity significantly increases or if the earthquake swarm activity shifts to other related regions near and along the San Andreas fault.
yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values
*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report
ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT:
LATEST RELATED CME(SEP IMPACT
20140107/20140218-20/ 20140225
01- 04/ 14
EXPLANATIONS>
Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.
Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./
Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest SEP/ CME . Colors from orange to light red mark GRADUAL IMPACTS OF MULTIPLE CMEs CLUSTERS.
HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST>
INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions!
STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS
The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER a LATENCY period due to CME IMPACT on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES within the RED until the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Read "latency remarks"
REGIONS
REGION "A"
REGION "B"(1)
REGION "B"(2)
REGION "C"
REGION"
D"
REGION "E" (1)
REGION "E" (2)
REGION "F"
REGIONS COVERED BY LATEST CME IMPACT>
EASTERN EURASIA-- INDONESIA-WESTERN PACIFIC PHILIPPINES--AUSTRALIA WEST
JAPAN/EAST- AUSTRALIA/ (EAST), PNG. NZL
ALEUT./ KAMCHATKA- EASTERN PACIFIC/ HAWAII
WESTERN USA+ WEST COAST- EASTERN PACIFIC- CANADA-ALASKA
GULF OF MEXICO/ PANAMERICA/CA./ CENTRAL USA/ SOUTH - AMERICA- WEST
, EASTERN ATLANTIC/ (CANARIES/ ICELAND)- N & S- AMERICA/ EAST
CENTRAL (WEST) EUROPE/ AFRICA
INDIA & INDIAN OCEAN- CENTR: EURASIA, AFRICA (EAST), ARABIA ASIA MINOR
note: from September 2014 on, this report will contain / collect only data about hurricanes with windspeeds above 50 MPH. For latest developing tropical storms, visit wunderground., com! datasets with a green background are hurricanes those are already over!
Another large pyroclastic flow occurred yesterday morning. The flow traveled 2-3 km to the base of the mountain and produced an impressive coignimbrite ash plume that rose to approx. 4 km altitude.
The volcano's eruption continues mostly quietly to effuse viscous lava, feeding a flow emplaced on the upper southeastern flank. At times, such as yesterday, it becomes too unstable and smaller or larger parts of it can collapse, generating dangerous pyroclastic flows.... find more...
This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >
This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >
This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >
This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >
20141216: please note: NASA is currently reorganising their website contents: so all archived images , embedded contents and links posted on external websites such as mine will not work until NASA`s new website will be completed. If once completed- so NASA- all previous links will work again, resp lead/ forward automatically to the new pages. So long as this new website is under construction, NASA has "parked" all previous contents under the prefix "legacy-" So all previous linkred NASA contents can be found just by adding the word " legacy-" prior to the URL resp "www" : example: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/archive/current_month.html has to be changed into: http://legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/archive/current_month.html
1. LATEST AND CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL ALERTS
20150224: The permanent "nested" configuration of two active regions and a coronal hole which is on the same solar coordinates since at least one year and which is currently the only but also a constant active region on the solar disc became again visible behin dthe eastern solar limb and seems to be still very active ( see more below)
20150209: Electron is still elevated after the latest minor SEP on 20150128
click here for previous solar and terrestrial events and alerts
20150115: solar activity is low. The electron accumulation from previous solar SEPs in the earth`s magnetic field is still active. Values as measured the electrometers might not represent the real charges, since protons impacts also change the potential of the ground parameter. However- as it seems , since more than one year (!) the long term effects/ potential energies those accumulated with all previous SEPs are first time now nbear to their final discharge . As the hot spots earth tectonic plates are getting cooler now, volcanic acitivities are dercfreasing ( example: Yellowstone caldera)ONE OR SEVERAL STRONG SUBDUCTION QUAKES might likely follow the final discharge, those could reach magititudes up to M 9 and higher That final discharge can be observed on GOES a final sharp drop of the integral electron flux . AI hope,. I will be able this time again to predict the time when the major earthquake events must be expected with an accuracy of 1- 7 days.
>disturbance by unknown source ( solar activities?)
pending
GEOPHYSICAL EFFECTS:
GEOPHYSICAL EFFECTS:
GEOPHYSICAL EFFECTS:
VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES / MAINLY ON HOT SPOTS( SOUTH POLAR TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (-)
TORNADOES, THUNDERSTORMS, VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (m. northern Hemisphere)
COOLING DOWN & CONTRACTION OF THE EARTH MANTLE AND TECTONIC - PREVIOUSLY HEATED UP BY THE PROTON IMPACT and ELECTRON EFFECTS.
> MAJOR AND potential CATATROPHIC SUBDUCTION QUAKES with magnitudes (> M 8 or even > M 9 ) high enough to create a substantial and widespread Tsunami, if quakes occure subseas.
SOLAR / TERRESTRIAL (NEAR TO) REAL TIME DATA AND PLOTS:
update yourself!
!if the integral electron flux / plot below) should SUDDENLY SHARPLY DROP, STRONGER MAJOR SUBDUCTION EARTHQUAKES become most probable! (globally!) You won`t believe that? Then test it!
Rising integral proton (= proton stotrm) = magmatic and hot spot intrusion with minor earthquakes
EARLY WARNING! 20150208: the integral electron flux, that shortly rose again after another- but this time minor slow and uneffective SEP had occured in the only active nested region 12286, began significantly to drop on February 07: This now can mark for the first time since begin of 2014 , that all SEP effects those had ccumulated during this period within the geomagneti field might dcerease now and come to a preliminary end : Due to all collected data during previous SEPs, STRONG AND HEAVY DISASTROUS SUBDUCTION QUAKES MIGHT FOLLOW VERY QUICKLY when the remaining electron charge( accumulation in the geomagnetic field is discharching ( as it seems to be the case since 20150207 ) and tectonic plates and the mantle magma heated up by these SEPs will begin swiftly to cool down part to harden and to CONTRACT : NOTE: this forecast is based on data and analysis of previous socalled solar SEP (proton) events and is nevertheless ( as all foreecasts) WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY OR GUARANTEE! MAJOR SUBDUCTION QUAKES THOSE ARE LIKELY MOGHT OCCURE DURING THE NEXT DAYS HAVE MOST LIKELY TO BE EXPECTED IN THE REGION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND MAINLY AROUND THE 180° LATITUDES MOST LIKELY AFFECTING THE AMERICAN PACIFIC COAST - Alaska down to California and beyond . with possible effects also to Japan and the east pacific subduction zones ( Tonga, Fiji, Vanuatu, Hawaii and NZL) ALL SEAQUAKES EXCEEDING MAGNITUDES oF M 8.0 are capable to trigger a widespread TSUNAMI in these regions!
20150228: Another SEP must have begun late on February 26: Integral proton flux began to rise after 24 UTC on 20150226 and is currently ( at time of this update near to 1.0 pfu)( image 1: GOES Proton plot). This time I could not detect the typical side effect that SEPs accelerate gases upwards from the solar surface and corona on SoHO imagery, Thus this SEP wasmaybe a backside event. what i can`t proof as well, since oth STEREO satellites are still ot of service.
If it was a front side event, ( the SEPs themselves are mostly invisible on light based telescopes anyway ) protons this time would have a rather slow acceleration what makes them rather ineffective in terms that they would heat up the earth mantle over their impact on earth. Nevertheless, the protons that immigrate the Earth,will- as ever - attrackt and accumulate an equivalent number of electrons from the solar magnetic field , those are energetic enough to produce these typical heat / temperature anomalies around an in the Northern pole those cause the weather tubulences wer are facing each time after an SEP on the Northern Hemisphere. THis - as expectable- continuing electron accumulation also supports further volcanic activities.
SDO shows a minor flare in AR and a filament eruption in the nested configuration which has not yet fully rotated in .( These events cannot be seen on a single standby picture and must be watched in a timeline video on SDOs website) and occurerd later , So the cannot be related to that SEP event
20150224: The permanent "nested" configuration of two active regions and a coronal hole which is on the same solar coordinates since at least one year and which is currently the only but also a constant active region on the solar disc became again visible behin dthe eastern solar limb and seems to be still very active ( see more below). ON 20150224. it produced an impressive solar prominence followed by a stronger C flare. In the next days we can see wether this reagion is still producing solar proton eruptions (SEPs) as it did at east during the last three previous rotation periods. This nested active region will be newly numbered as soon as it comes insight. During the last rotation period this region was numbered as AR 17275
20150223: a minor SEP occured on February 21 . The source was likely a backside event that occured shortly before noon ( image 4) . ( SEPS are for the SDO telescops-as those are only reacting on light- mostly invisible, but STEREO ( currently mostly out of order) and SOHO can make images from the solar winds and gazes such an proton eruption (SEP) accelerates on the solar surface) : The integral proton flux reaching the Earth from that event however increased after 13 UTC shortly to 1 pfu but yet decreased back to normal values until February 23 : the only noticable and visible on February 21 was a filament eruption after 18 UTC from the Northern edge of CH , which wa snot related to that SEP event.
( see images below)20150209: An interesting sharp lined filament formed out on the equatorial region of the Sun (image 3, below) connecting two active regions. AR 12282 on the northeastern solar limb produced an M 2 LED event on 20150209 after 23 UTC unleashing a larger CME soon after at its peak into eastern direction, that has no obvious Earth directed parts
20150204: Another rise of integral electron flux (electron accumulation) followed the low speed proton storm on 20150128- 31. and will be more effective than the proton impact
20150128: MINOR SEP from nested region ( currently numbered as 12286):: a solar SEP occured on ´20150128 likely from "nested" region 12286, which began producing minor SEPs but( what is new) with only very low accelerated slow protons since two rotation periods, those have not much effects on the geomagnetic field . At all, this nested region which is just part of an persistent larger configuration with other AR and larger Coronal holes envolving the southern quarter of the visible disc already produced 4 event of this new tpye of slow proton emissions over the last 3 rotation periods. while the nested region rotated over the visible disc. This shows , the configuiration produces strong gravitational forces and these low speed protons events are likely just the prelude of a major and likely xtreme strong SEP that might happen of not during this rotation period anytime soon and finally destroy/ s dissolve the sun spot region. (As there is not any theory about what sun spots really are not what is the source of SEPS, I have the theory, that sun spots consist out of anomal "black" matter - describable " tiny black holes -that likely consist ot of something like pure protons and those after they gain more and more mass sink (through the nuclear fusion during flares) deeper and deeper into the sun`s gaz hull until they are torn apart by the increasing electromagnetic forces within the Sun . ( as long as the sun has an electromagnetic field strong enough to do that. If not, sunspots catched by ( rather than produced by) the Sun might bring the sun to a higher gravity until this would contract the star more and more until it comes to a final gravity collapse (> nova): However-this is just theory and I still strongly believe the sun will remain still active for another thousand, million but rather even Billion years. But- who knows?
IMPORTANT NOTICE; 20150213: GOES measured again an significant decrease of the integral electron flux (image 1) , which is still on elevated level due due previous proton events (SEP): The further development will show whether this is ( what I suggest as there is a compression of electroins to see ) just a temporary (proton or polarity ) influence caused by solar winds from recent solar flares and filament eruptions. But goes hp (img 2) does not show such an impact now. As this however will highten theglobal earth quake propability and strength for some degree, I will change the expectable values in my earthquake forecast today and preleminary to nmaximal expectable values above M 6.5 ( max M 7.0) . If this decrease in integral electron flux today should go on be the begin of the expected "final discharge (SEP Phase III) then I wiull issue a warning for earthquake, that might exceed M 8.0 soon
^click on this map to open it in a new tab, then click on the requested region : a more detailled view of the region will be loaded...
click here for previous solar events logs and reports (February 2015)
(special& continued report:) THE LARGE AND MYSTERIOUS SOLAR SURFACE REGION THAT HAS A CONFIGURATION THAT REMAINED WIDELY UNCHANGED SINCE at least ONE YEAR!
I yet just traced this large region covering at least a quarter of the solar disc back to May 2011. ( see previous archive reports) This review has shown , that the entire configuration remained almost unchanged since then. On 20141215, the main and mostly only active region on the entire disc, active region 12235 produced an extreme fast filament eruption , AR 12235 is a nested stationary sun spot cluster and forms with another active region and a large coronal hole a very active configuration that persists since at least one year( I have just not traced it further back yet) AR 12235 was AR12209 active during the last rotation period and was AR 12192 two rotation periods earlier, when it produced 4 strong X class flares in a row .The configuration covers more than a quarter of the solar disc and has a kind of gravity center with a coronal hole stretching towards the Northern pole an has also a low spotted area which is also but less active than AR 12235. which is situated 15- 30 ° further in the east . (> images 5 and 6 . During all that time this nested AR was and is only AR on the visible that produced flares and CMEs. Currently the entire configuration seems to be active and produces a type of flaring resp shoots out hot gazes all over the area it covers.. The most active AR in it- AR 12235 became smaller yet during previous periods and then began to grown again., Currently it appears rather small ) . What is it and what does this big are doe next ? Nobody knows...Allthough humans observe the Sun meanwhile day and night, much about our central star is still more a mystery and an still good for some surprises.
( image 4 >) satellite transmissions were repeatedly knocked out between 20141213 and 14 and there was a short rise in integral Proton flux on 20141213/ 6 UTC when values rose to 2,5 pfu until 20141216/ 00 , when vaklues were back again at +/- 0.1 pfu. as usual . But satellite imagery that needs light to make any image cannot cover those proton events and where these SEPs actually occure. However,: STEREO with its infra red usually can at least cover secondary events ( the protons do accelerate and heat up gazes on the solar surface those emit then ) such are gazes hgeated up after the proton explosion by highest accelerated protons. Butr also Stereo has a transmission blackout on December 13 and 14. theavailable images show an intensive flaring activity on the front side . STEREO also observed a strong type of filament eruption heading from the North Polar solar region ( image 4 >)
We might either get a new SEP soon ( an event that comes more or less out of nowhere) or the effects of the previous SEPs will come to an end: When the current electron accumulation ( which is still exceeding temporarely 1.000 pfu.) will drop, as now further SEP has occured during the past 6 weeks , the earth mantle heated up by these SEPs will cool down and STRONG SUBDUCTION quakes will accompony that process.however: magma intrusion creates something like holes ( aou also can call that underpresssure or defizits) within the earth mantle , So the intensive magma intrusion we can observe onm a global scalesince some years will be logically be always accomponied/ followed by subduction quakes, by those new material is pulled- "dives down" into the earth mantle is melted there and will equalize that defizit.( more see right column)>
AUG 2014: DAILY SOLAR REVIEWS ARE BEING REDUCED TO SIGNIFICANT SOLAR ACTIVITY DEVELOPMENTS !
means: you find only full reports, that cover all related data, if stronger activities occure. Some monthly archives might therefor contain only one daily review,. others might contain more. depending on the evolution of solar sun spot activity after the peak was reached on 2013
2015
MONTH
JANUARY
DAY:
none yet xx
< date refers to available event data and summaries
ACE ( Advanced Composition Explorer) is on and L 1 orbit at the edge between solar and geomagnetic field and measures the intensity and composition of interplanetary solar winds
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M1 event observed at 06/1709Z from Region 2157 (S14E44). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Sep, 08 Sep, 09 Sep).
ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS INVOLVED IN MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITIES, CMEs OR SEPS ( other active regions are not posted)
ACE ( Advanced Composition Explorer) is on and L 1 orbit at the edge between solar and geomagnetic field and measures the intensity and composition of interplanetary solar winds
USAF report on geophysical activity for previous day:>>
* graph only during significant events
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 430 km/s at 06/2049Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 06/1531Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 06/0512Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9 pfu at 06/0740Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 286 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (07 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (08 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (09 Sep). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (07 Sep), are likely to cross threshold on day two (08 Sep) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (09 Sep).
20140430: protons appproached again from polar Earth orbit-
meaning of background colors>
yellow= this particles are currently active/ dominant
red= strong event
} orange background = ACTIVE electrons/ but their effectivity is PENDING OR INTERFERED BY PROTONS/ or> PROTONS are still too fast to envolve significant effects
CURRENT SEP/ PROTON EFFECTS
May 23- 2014: Protons- particulary from the high speed SEP on APR 18. partic. also from minor recent solar eruptions (AR 12071) are still active in the geomagnetic field with an increase of magmatic activities at the same time. At 22 UTC a sudden increase of electron density likely marked the end of the effectivity these protons had in the geomagneticmfield over the last days and weeks
ELECTRON EFFECTS>
20140610: integral electrons flux signficantly began to rise and might reach tresholds soon in the coming days. The increase followed a strong depression of the electron flux by former SEP and solar protons effects and indicate that these protons effects those lasted for more than 1 month are over now. hot spot activities have again dcreased yet in the last weeks The electron accumulation now will bring again high temperatures and droughts to the Northern hemisphere, as welll as sudden tornadoes, thunderstorms . I am not sure, how the high tension of the integral electron fluxmight induce cururents into ships on high seas power grids and other electric devices but several servers ship incidents those occured during electron accumulations in the greomag field suggest that ea. are capable for.
The current state of particles within the geomag. field is after quite a dozen part. accumulating SEPs since autum 2013 is rather confusing and data plots dont`t allow exact results.
might persist for several weeks now after those these electrons will finally discharge. This last SEP phase expected in about 3 weeks sometime end of June 2014 ( if no further solar SEPs occures) with cooling down of and contraction effects on the affected tectonic plates those likely finally will trigger strong and CATASTROPHIC earthquakes with magnitudes above M 9!!
20140607: The integral electron flux dropped again into negative values and continued so since JUne 03. The source of the disturbance are likely protons still active either from previous events or from recent solar protons emissions into interplanetary space
20140523/ 22 UTC There was a sudden increase of the integral electron flux after 22 UTC. There was no similar related event found on ACE data , thus the increase seems not to be related to a solar event, but rather marks the end of the effectivity , solar protons had on the geomagnetic field during the last days and weeks
20140523: During the second half of May 2014 , electrons were first rising as expected following the strong high speed SEP on April 18 ( with protons almost at the speed of light) . After May 17, the electron energy was again neutralized by those still active and after May 23 also by newly incoming protons ( activities in AR 12071) and fell into minus values, what does not mean, that these electrons would lose their cinetic energy by that . They rather get compressed and electrically neutralised by protons circulating with the field lines , what at least temporarely hampers their ability to cause thunderstorms and strong tornadoes or induced currents.
Temperature anomalies around the Northern pole continue since end of 2013 and brought again climatical extremes to the medium latitudes.
orange background >means: The electron effects of the last SEO were overlapsed by new SEP eventand currently deactivated or: HIGH SPEED SEP. Protons are still to fastto envolve significant effects
SEP EVENT HISTORY :
20140418/
13:19 UTC
complex nested solar region AR 12036 (35- 37 produced and M 7,.8 LDE flare peaking with a CME at 13:19 UTC. The event was associated with a medium strong SEP. First Protons arrived soon after 13 uTC- thus were accelerated near to the speed of light,due to the fact , that the eruption took place near the central solar meridian and the proton speed is highest radially to the eruption center. means, that some proton effects such as hot spot activities will delay resp takle place slowly
20140413- 16
The integral Electron flux began to increase after strongly been compressed by active protons. (20140415) Integral electron flux is expected to exceed treshold of 1.000 pfu on 20140416
20140405
after 12 UTC
Proton flux slightly increased to max 1.0 pfu after solar event
20140325
08 UTC
Integral,proton flux rose after CME event on 20140324 to values up to 1 pfu.
20140317
Integral proton flux has decreased to normal values after March 07. But the high amount of protons those impacted during this long lasting proton storm ist still effective with heat in the earth body and mantle .Hot spot activities are still present on the Canary islands. The proton influence also still knocks down the integral electron flux to zero and even into negative values. There is a slight recovery of the electron since March 17 . Values will further increase and exceed 100 pfu at any time in about 1 or two weeks ( SEP phase II) , if no new SEP occures.
20140228
Integral Proton flux increased further on February 28 and reached 100 pfu early in the morning. I have not reviewed the solar events yet. but protons storms/ eruptions are what I call " the invisible eruption"
MAJOR earthquake likely at the end of electron accumulation (potential: > M 9.0**)
ABOUT LATENCIES:
INFLUENCES:
* latent potential for earthquakes with magnitudes higher than M 9.0! Some major catastrophic earthquake might likely happen, when effects of accumulated SEPs diminuish /.> 10 MeV electron accumulation will be neutralised, what is indicated , when electron energy suddenly will sharply drop at its end
EFFECTING AS >
INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW
** estimated
NOTES: ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 with green brackgound is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable
(In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!
20140620: remark: Currently I am examining whether also electron accumulations effect on hot spot or surface volcanism
for longer time I have not updated myself on the latest of NASA curiosity rover Mars mission. Now I found some articles with some indeed strange images Curiosity sent to Earth
3. The "crocodile" This nosy crocodile once fully turned into stone , when it lurked up to the sky , when obvioulsy something strange happened, we might call " Medusa effect"
my favourite ones: parts of destroyed buildings? Stone figures similar to the ones found on Eastern islands:
A group of youtube people are just waiting for the next super high resolution image the rover sends home, most people as obviously also the NASA staff does oftenly not take much notice of. Curiosity`s images have such a high resolution that you can search and magnify on them each detail and its just incredible what people find on these images:
Just watch the video( right side): I just can`t prove whether the "vehicle" oin this photo might be a a fake!>
Beside the jokes made upon these discoveries like the video with " the green frog" that survived on Mars after its water channels had dried out, some of these dicoveries just knocked me out of my shoes. Best source for those images on youtube is the channel what`s up in the sky.
However: Its meanwhile in all news and obviously noone could approve yet , that those images would have been faked with an photo editing software!
July 2014: note: as the solar sun spot activity is decreasing now, major events will get less at least until May June 2014 .Therefor, this project is also limited now to basic updates. In July 2014 I decided to update this page only after significant event and changes and to turn this page into an monthly page that will cover significant events and can be archived then in that form.
January 25- 2014:
2013, after 2 years after the second major> M 9 Earthquake had taken place within on decade and after two years of statistic evaluation and comparation of solar and terestrial data, it became clear , that socalled SEPS would be the solar feature I was looking , being that solar feature, that indeed can even have strongest related and signiciant geophysical effects.
Now in early 2014, the peak off the sun spots cycle seems to be over and related activity visibly have decreased . I dont expect many stronger and significant solar events for the next half year.
Recently I decided, to close the ongoing solar and terrestrial documentary at this point in this form , as it was made until now., whith complete data and event evaluationas as its required for any scientific work . This I did to get this project to a point, that its results would be available and evaluable for further report and can be also a basic for further scientics research
Nevertheless as observations and evaluations have shown , that esp. the socalled SEPs ,this documentary has focussed on, as being the strongest and most geoeffective known type of solar event) do happen MOST frequently during the solar max, but are als present in the same strength all 11 years in between but just in lower number.
So I will continue to watch over all these solar data and event and try to provide a full report and complete coverage in time if any furthe major event should take place ..
so the solar teerrestrial blog will be continued in another simplified and limited form:
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