According to NASA, this 24th. 11 year sun spot cycle has probably a " twin peak"- the second in 2015. This project therefore will be prolongued.
THE 11 YEAR SUN SPOT CYCLE-
LAST MAXIMUM ACTIVITY IN: 2012/ 13 NEXT: APPR. in 2024
SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG
-ARCHIVE
JUNE 2015
note: as the solar sun spot activity is decreasing now, less major events are expected at least in the next years. (next cycle minimum expected in 2019)
.Therefor, this project is also limited now to basic updates. In July 2014 I decided to update this page only after significant event and changes and to turn this page into an monthly page that will cover significant events and can be archived then in that form.
research and documentary of the 24th solar cycle with evaluation of certain geoeffective Solar activities (esp. polarised rotating CMEs and SEPs) with coincident terrestrial events such as :
ESSENTIAL SOURCES ON SOLAR ACTIVITIES; Satellite Real Time images and data plots, weblinks etc....click here to expand and close the collapsible panel to read all..
SECTION: LATEST INFORMATION ON SOLAR ACTIVITIES
EVENT RELATED INTERPLANETARY & GEOMAGNETIC DATA PLOTS IMAGES OR VIDEO SOURCES:
(1) SOLAR REAL TIME / CURRENT SATELLITE DATA AND EVENTS
REAL TIME images links for current views on the sun surface- click to enlarge
HOW SOLAR ACTIVITY REPORTS ARE COMMONLY MADE:
SOLAR (NEAR) REAL TIME images as provided by satellites such as SDO, STEREO and SoHO are the first main source on Solar activity data: Various telescopes imaging different levels of frequencies can make sun spots, active regions visoiblöe as well as coronal holes and solar eruptions: solar prominences, flares and associated CMEs ( one exception are proton emissions those remain invisible on any usal imagery. Protons emissions and storms can be measured withe certain instruments instead ( GOES)
Second step is the interplanetary space and solar magnetic field . The Advanced Composition Explorer ( ACE) is "situated" on an geosynchronous orbit outside the geomagnetic field . This satellite has only measurement instruments onboard those deliver various data about the composition of the solar wind. Solar winds blow and circulate regularly through the interplanatary space . Coronal mass ejections and other extraordinary solar events eruptions throw large amounts of solar matter into the interplanetary space . ACE can deliver first data , how strong a possibly earth directed CME might be 1 - 2 days before those CMEs impact and answer the first primary question associated to any CME: Has the main CMEa positive or negative "POLARITY "-( =AN ESPECIAL - PROTON or ELECTRON charge)? means: is the incoming CME NEUTRAL, has it higher accelerated PROTONs or ELECTRONS. THis first question (which one of the two antagonists- the proton or electrons arrives first) determines whether a CME can fully impact into the geomagnetic field or almost NOT AT ALL!
Last not least, in the third step, the GEOSTATIONARY GOES SATELLITES measure what INDEED IMPACTS INTO THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD, basic for all space weather forecasts and forceasts as this one on my page, how strong EARTH DIRECTED CMES might unfluence nature and human civilisation!
-Go to "SOLAR CONTROL CENTER to find out more about these solar observatories or click on the many links on this page to get fisst hand informations!-
SOLAR REAL TIME SAT IMAGES :
note also: SDO, SOHO C3 and STEREO (360° VIEW°) REAL TIME IMAGES ON TOP OF THAT PAGE!
the Earth`s geomagnetic field electrons might defend the Earth even against CMEs from a X 10 flare, what poses the likely only danger , is the attack "from the other side" know as "protons events"
about:
ABOUT: SOLAR PROTON EMISSIONS (proton flares or storms etc. ) ARE RARE EVENTS . But- differently to the mostly of negative charged (electrons) CMEs , PROTON CMEs effect (finally by associated energetic events) until deep into the ground and the Earth`s interior. Proton emissions impact fully into the (negatively charged) geomagnetic field by their positive electric charge and add a positive component to it, what makes the geomag. field TEMPORARELY then also vulnerable especially for following negatively charged CMEs . The protons themselves have paradox effects: first they swallow many electrons (likely reacting with them to neutrons what causes first a "geomagnetic depression" with lower field density (lessactive, free electrons) and paradox ANTIENERGETIC effects (best describable as the "calm prior to the storm" ) .. read more in text box above
Long-range communications using high frequency (HF) radio waves (3 - 30 MHz) depend on reflection of the signals in the ionosphere. Radio waves are typically reflected near the peak of the F2 layer (~300 km altitude), but along the path to the F2 peak and back the radio wave signal suffers attenuation due to absorption by the intervening ionosphere.
Absorption is the process by which the energy of radio waves is converted into heat and electromagnetic (EM) noise through interactions between the radio wave, ionospheric electrons, and the neutral atmosphere (for a more extensive description of the absorption process see Davies, 1990). Most of the absorption occurs in the ionospheric D region (50–90 km altitude) where the product of the electron density and the electron-neutral collision frequency attains a maximum...
The precipitation of protons (as well as other ions) into the earth’s atmosphere during the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events can also create significant enhancements of ionospheric electron densities in the D region. Solar protons with energies between 1 to 200 MeV are primarily responsible for most of ionization of the D region and, consequently, for the ionospheric absorption of HF radio waves. Because of shielding of the earth by its magnetic field SEPs find easy access to the atmosphere only in high latitude regions around the earth’s geomagnetic poles. Such occurrences are therefore termed Polar Cap Absorption (PCA) events....read more...
CLICK HERE FOR INTERNATIONAL MEDIA AND NEWS SOURCES & OTHER EXTERNAL LINKS- DAILY NEWS FROM WHERE IT HAPPENS!..click here to expand and close the collapsible panel to read all..
NEWS CHANNELS:
( collecting of recommendable international news channels is still ongoing...): Note: This list is dedicated to get latest informations directly from regional news channels and sources all over the world . Alien-homepage does not take any responsibility for contents of websites posted on this list nor for their liability
(INTERNAL) find all known volcanoes worldwide on my internal GLOBAL VOLCANO MAPS - including webcams and other features- click here to expand and close the collapsible panel -
Severe flooding due to heavy rain has caused widespread damage to roads and homes in Costa Rica. Landslides have collapsed bridges interrupted communications and forced more than 1500 people to seek alternative accommodation. Emergency shelters have been set up offering help to the flood victims. The Panamanian government has provided a helicopter to support search and rescue operations in flooded parts of Costa Rica’s Caribbean coast line. The president of Costa Rica, Luis Guillermo Solis has declared an emergency as heavy rainfall continues to flood the entire province of Limon and the cantons of Turrialba and Sarapiqui...read more...
Western Europe is sweltering in the first big heatwave of the summer, with several days of +30 degree temperatures or more in many places, while in some areas the end cannot be predicted. Temperatures of +40 have been the norm in Spain for days, but Portugal, France, Belgium, Britain, the Netherlands, Switzerland and northern Italy are also in for a scorcher. Denmark and the whole of Scandinavia are also going to feel the heat, although a little less so. For Rome it is nothing exceptional, even if at this time of year it is normally several degrees cooler. Italian ice cream sellers are rubbing their hands together. However this flaming June is proving too hot to handle even for the Spanish, where temperatures have hit the over 40s this week, making electicity consumption spike as air conditioners work overtime....read more...
RECENT HEADLINES:
< JUNE 18- 22 : serial of 3 major CMEs, 2 filament eruptions and 2 stronger SEPs from large active AR 12371 while passing the solar meridian . strongest CME impact in years as well as one of the strongest SEP events in years! ( see more below)
The death toll from an ongoing heatwave in Pakistan's southern Sindh province has passed 700, local media said, as mortuaries reached capacity. Dawn newspaper said at least 744 people had died in Karachi and 38 in other areas, citing a government official. The Edhi Welfare Organisation told the AFP news agency that their morgues had received hundreds of corpses and were now full. Officials have been criticised for not doing enough to tackle the crisis. "More than 400 dead bodies have so far been received in our two mortuaries in past three days," Edhi spokesperson Anwar Kazmi told AFP. "The mortuaries have reached capacity." On Tuesday as temperatures reached 45C (113F), Pakistan's PM Nawaz Sharif called for emergency measures and the army was deploying to help set up heat stroke centres
(click here to see previous natural incident reports of the current month)
< JUNE 18- 22 : serial of 3 major CMEs, 2 filament eruptions and 2 stronger SEPs from large active AR 12371 while passing the solar meridian . strongest CME impact in years as well as one of the strongest SEP events in years! ( see more below)
Strong thunderstorms which swept through several provinces, in southern China, in the past week, have continued to battle the area. 18 people have died due to house collapses, landslides or lightning, and four more are currently missing.
More than 203.2 mm (8 inches) of rain has fell in the last 48 hours (by late June 20). Thousands of homes have been overthrown by flood waters, and tens of thousands of residents had to move out of their homes, according to the Ministry of Civil Affairs. 10 people died and 66 4000 people were affected in the Hubei province alone, where the strongest storms were reported. 527000 people were affected in the Hunan province, 5 people died in the municipality of Chongqing, 2 in the Guizhou province and one person died in the Anhui province...read more
Fierce winds uprooted around 1,000 trees in Hanoi on Saturday afternoon, killing two passers-by and injuring five others. The winds, coupled with rain and lighting, struck the capital city out of the blues at 5 pm and lasted for around 30 minutes. Dao Thi Oanh, 21, and Duong Quang Tho, 61, died after being crushed by falling trees while driving their motorbikes on Minh Khai and Nguyen Du streets in Hai Ba Trung District. Five others were injured by fallen trees, billboards and corrugated iron roofs while many left their bikes on the streets and sought shelter. At least 1,000 trees were uprooted, 139 houses unroofed, 21 utility poles damaged and 13 cars smashed, authorities said at a meeting on Sunday morning.
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korea says it has been hit by its worst drought in a century, resulting in extensive damage to agriculture. The official Korean Central News Agency said the drought has caused about 30 percent of its rice paddies to dry up. Rice plants normally need to be partially submerged in water during the early summer. “Water level of reservoirs stands at the lowest, while rivers and streams (are) getting dry,” it said in a report Tuesday. An official from South Korea’s Unification Ministry, who asked not to be identified because of office rules, said precipitation in North Korea was abnormally low in May. Its production of rice and potatoes could decline by as much as 20 percent compared to average years if the shortage of rainfall extends to early July, he said.
LATEST MAJOR EARTHQUAKES
(click here to see previous earthquake reports of the current month)
Inhalt
LATEST (KNOWN) TSUNAMI EVENTS:
RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:
note: the Tsunami report on this site here is for documentary but rather not up to date. For latest informations, check out: NOAA/ PTWC TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS
this section also refers to quake activities those typically occure since 2011 in a radius of 100- 200 km around the eifel volcano field, while the region in between stays rather calm. This typically indicates the possibiltiy of hot magma with in the area in between that radius where NO Seimic quakes occure .- Hot magma makes no seismic effects but causes tensions and seismic quakes just on its bondaries where it meets with colder rock formations. There are also regular microquakes along the river Rhine, thos are not respected here.
increased magmatic microquake activity ( since January 2014)
"C"
NOTICES: the swarm quake activity along the San Andreas fault had significantly increased in strength as well as in frequency since January- 04 2014. The swarm quake activity which as related to magma intrusion through the San Andreas fault is continuing since then on ausually low, but constant level . The r eport here will therefore be updated only , when the overall activity significantly increases or if the earthquake swarm activity shifts to other related regions near and along the San Andreas fault.
yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values
*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report
ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT:
LATEST RELATED CME(SEP IMPACT
20140107/20140218-20/ 20140225
01- 04/ 14
EXPLANATIONS>
Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.
Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./
Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest SEP/ CME . Colors from orange to light red mark GRADUAL IMPACTS OF MULTIPLE CMEs CLUSTERS.
HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST>
INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions!
STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS
The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER a LATENCY period due to CME IMPACT on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES within the RED until the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Read "latency remarks"
REGIONS
REGION "A"
REGION "B"(1)
REGION "B"(2)
REGION "C"
REGION"
D"
REGION "E" (1)
REGION "E" (2)
REGION "F"
REGIONS COVERED BY LATEST CME IMPACT>
EASTERN EURASIA-- INDONESIA-WESTERN PACIFIC PHILIPPINES--AUSTRALIA WEST
JAPAN/EAST- AUSTRALIA/ (EAST), PNG. NZL
ALEUT./ KAMCHATKA- EASTERN PACIFIC/ HAWAII
WESTERN USA+ WEST COAST- EASTERN PACIFIC- CANADA-ALASKA
GULF OF MEXICO/ PANAMERICA/CA./ CENTRAL USA/ SOUTH - AMERICA- WEST
, EASTERN ATLANTIC/ (CANARIES/ ICELAND)- N & S- AMERICA/ EAST
CENTRAL (WEST) EUROPE/ AFRICA
INDIA & INDIAN OCEAN- CENTR: EURASIA, AFRICA (EAST), ARABIA ASIA MINOR
An Indonesian military transport plane has crashed into a residential area in Sumatra, killing dozens of people according to reports. There was carnage as houses and a hotel were set on fire. Many of the casualties were on the ground. The C-130 Hercules plane came down shortly after takeoff on the Sumatran city of Medan. There is confusion over the number of victims – many of whom were on the ground – and indeed over the precise number of passengers. The head of the air force has been quoted as saying 113 people were on board. Another military spokesman spoke of 62. Earlier reports cited the military as saying 12 people were on the aircraft.
A rescue operation is underway on China’s Yangtze River after a passenger ferry sank on Monday evening. There were reported to be at 450 people on board the vessel, when it ran into trouble in Hubei Province during a cyclone. The ferry, called the Eastern Star, was travelling from Nanjing in eastern China to Chongqing city. Chinese state media reported that only about a dozen people had been rescued, among them the ship’s captain and engineer who said the vessel sank quickly. The majority of those on board are said to be elderly tourists. China’s Premier Li Keqiang is due to arrive at the scene of the accident. ...find more...
LATEST MAJOR TROPICAL STORMS & HEAVY WEATHERS
(click here to see previous heavy weather reports of the current month)
TROPICAL STORMS/ DECEMBER 2014
note: from September 2014 on, this report will contain / collect only data about hurricanes with windspeeds above 50 MPH. For latest developing tropical storms, visit wunderground., com! datasets with a green background are hurricanes those are already over!
A series of larger pyroclastic flows occurred yesterday, reaching lengths of up to 4.5 km and producing ash plumes that rose up to approx. 4 km. Most likely, the now relatively large dome is currently again a phase of increased destabilization and more of such dangerous pyroclastic flows (hot block and ash flows) can be expected....read more...
Japanese residents fled the remote southern island of Kuchinoerabu on Friday following the eruption of Mount Shindake -- and the spectacular eruption was captured on video. Mount Shindake spewed black clouds as high as 5.6 miles into the sky as authorities evacuated nearly 140 people from the island, with one man reportedly suffering minor burns but all others believed to be safe. Video captured by the Japan Meteorological Agency and published by the Japanese public broadcaster NHK shows the initial explosion mushrooming into a towering cloud of ash....read more...
This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >
20141216: please note: NASA is currently reorganising their website contents: so all archived images , embedded contents and links posted on external websites such as mine will not work until NASA`s new website will be completed. If once completed- so NASA- all previous links will work again, resp lead/ forward automatically to the new pages. So long as this new website is under construction, NASA has "parked" all previous contents under the prefix "legacy-" So all previous linkred NASA contents can be found just by adding the word " legacy-" prior to the URL resp "www" : example: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/archive/current_month.html has to be changed into: http://legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/archive/current_month.html
(1.1.) LATEST AND CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL ALERTS
1.1.2. (related) NASA AND NOAA REAL TIME DATA PLOTS:
update/ 20150626: AR 12371 is meanhile at about 60° West and will rotate out until the end of June. On June 26 however- AR 12371 produced another M 8 LDE event, which again was associated to an SEP. Integral proton flux rose again above 10 pfu after the event. The overall situation is of course very strange and difficult to predict : we have still an ongoing S1 protons storm but with > 2 MeV electrons exceeding 1.000 pfu. high electron values at the same time. The impact of the latest CME on June 25 was so strong, that it exceeded far the limits of the graphic
update: 20150622: NEW AND STRONG SEP EVENT!! STRONGEST SEP since September 2014
On 20150621, another stronger SEP followed the first one on June 18 and values are currently exceeding 100 pfu. what is a strong event. Unfortunately, both STEREO Satellites are not available, inoperative or damaged. Their objective can make infrared images of the sun and are therefor the only ones that can make it possible to localise from where about in the Sun and in which direction a SEP occured. The emitted protons are not visible on any telescope, but as they heat up and accelerate gases from the solar corona on that point where they break through it ( what leads to spectacular heat eruptions) these images make it possible to track back from where and at which time about the SEP was radially accelerated ( what for sure happens deeper within the sun , what makes them just totally different to any sun spot related flare activity which always occure on or near to the surface of the Sun)
At that time / sometime prior to 3 UTC) when the first SEP on June 18 occured, there is one hot flare and eruption visible on SoHOs LASCO 3 , which also covers the infrared spectrum. The AR producing the event is AR 12376 on the western solar limb. But no satellite has any image showing the eruption, that might have been the source of the second stronger SEP that occured then sometimes prior to 15 UTC on June 21 . So also the first theory might be false. and the complex structure with several fastly changing Coronal holes around AR 12371 might have been the source of both SEPs. The fact that this region was in an optimal earth facing position during the second SEP ( from where the radial emitted protons have then usually the highest speed up to almost light velocity) also explains why these protons have still no effect on the electron accumulation and flux : they just would be still too fast and therefore would circulate within the geomagnetic field around a wider polar orbit, where the don`t get in touch yet with the deeper laying and yet discharging electrons.
CHECKING out the activities on hot spot volcanoes after the event, first of all Sinabung but also the the canary hotspot seems ( due to my current knowledge) to be the only one those have reacted yet on that. Since June 21 , magmatic quakes near to the hot spot south of El Hierro itself increased again. On June 21, also ith 4 km below sea surface also the MOST shallow quake was registered below EL Teide and near to teneriffe since that new activity phase had begun in December 2013! Until June 25, here where two quakes more at the same location . But IGN couldn`t ( or does not want) tell in which depth these magmatic boosts have occured.Means nothing else thans that magma levels in the volcanic system below the Teide massive first time have reached a level of less than 4 km below sealavel- what is - AS I BELIEVE- very CRITICAL!
20150622:2 Fully halo CME after + M 5 flare in AR 12371 and 1^filament eruption afterwards 20150618: M3 event in AR 12371/ 20150619: filament eruption; 20150621: M flare - AR 12371
Impact of 2 FULLY HALO CMEs after M + 5 flare and filament eruption on 20150624- 25
update/ 20150626: AR 12371 is meanhile at about 60° West and will rotate out until the end of June. On June 26 however- AR 12371 produced another M 8 LDE event, which again was associated to an SEP. Integral proton flux rose again above 10 pfu after the event. The overall situation is of course very strange and difficult to predict : we have still an ongoing S1 protons storm but with > 2 MeV electrons exceeding 1.000 pfu. high electron values at the same time. The impact of the latest CME on June 25 was so strong, that it exceeded far the limits of the graphic
update: 20150622: NEW AND STRONG SEP EVENT!! STRONGEST SEP since September 2014
On 20150621, another stronger SEP followed the first one on June 18 and values are currently exceeding 100 pfu. what is a strong event. Unfortunately, both STEREO Satellites are not available, inoperative or damaged. Their objective can make infrared images of the sun and are therefor the only ones that can make it possible to localise from where about in the Sun and in which direction a SEP occured. The emitted protons are not visible on any telescope, but as they heat up and accelerate gases from the solar corona on that point where they break through it ( what leads to spectacular heat eruptions) these images make it possible to track back from where and at which time about the SEP was radially accelerated ( what for sure happens deeper within the sun , what makes them just totally different to any sun spot related flare activity which always occure on or near to the surface of the Sun)
At that time / sometime prior to 3 UTC) when the first SEP on June 18 occured, there is one hot flare and eruption visible on SoHOs LASCO 3 , which also covers the infrared spectrum. The AR producing the event is AR 12376 on the western solar limb. But no satellite has any image showing the eruption, that might have been the source of the second stronger SEP that occured then sometimes prior to 15 UTC on June 21 . So also the first theory might be false. and the complex structure with several fastly changing Coronal holes around AR 12371 might have been the source of both SEPs. The fact that this region was in an optimal earth facing position during the second SEP ( from where the radial emitted protons have then usually the highest speed up to almost light velocity) also explains why these protons have still no effect on the electron accumulation and flux : they just would be still too fast and therefore would circulate within the geomagnetic field around a wider polar orbit, where the don`t get in touch yet with the deeper laying and yet discharging electrons.
CHECKING out the activities on hot spot volcanoes after the event, first of all Sinabung but also the the canary hotspot seems ( due to my current knowledge) to be the only one those have reacted yet on that. Since June 21 , magmatic quakes near to the hot spot south of El Hierro itself increased again. On June 21, also ith 4 km below sea surface also the MOST shallow quake was registered below EL Teide and near to teneriffe since that new activity phase had begun in December 2013! Until June 25, here where two quakes more at the same location . But IGN couldn`t ( or does not want) tell in which depth these magmatic boosts have occured.Means nothing else thans that magma levels in the volcanic system below the Teide massive first time have reached a level of less than 4 km below sealavel- what is - AS I BELIEVE- very CRITICAL!
HOT SPOT BEHAVIOUR
NASA however published an image that seem to show a magnetic structure around AR 12371, which embraces a quarter of the Sun ( image 3 below)
20150618/ after 3:30 UTC: I have almost overseen that a new medium strong SEP event occured on this day. The density of integral protons rose sharply above 10 pfu soon after the event, dropped first back almost to normal levels late on June 21 ( 20150621) but remained than at an increased level of o.8- 1.0 pfu 24 hours later at time of this update ( 20150621). It can currently also be observed, that the intgegral electron flux and the protons flux are ate higher valires AT THE SAME time, But however: The electron flux is expected to drop on the next days (at least on the instruments) as active protons just neutralize the effects of electrons for a while ..
20150618: a new and unexpected large and active region (AR 12371) has rotated in on the Eastern limb: The AR contains many and relative large sun spots and developed three groups each with with a significant prenumbras, and produced several flares during the past day A major earth directed CME was unleashed during an explosive event that occured on 20150618 after 17: 50 UTC. Another fully halo (= earth directed) CME was produced, while the AR has reached the solar meridian and flaring in this region again exceeded M level on 20150621, shortly before this update. No of both M flares and cMEs was the source of both protons events as decribed above
on 20150619:a large filament eruption occured form the edge of the large Coronal hole just Southwest of Ar 12371 and produced another Earth direceted CME. so there are at least three major CME impacts excpected for June 21, 22 u and 23, those likely will cause major geomagnetic disturbances
20150606: the active sunspot group 12361/62 rotated in on the eastern limb and is producing major flares those are currently- due to the low background x ray flux still on c level but expected to increase in strength
20150606: the active sunspot group 12361/62 rotated in on the eastern limb and is producing major flares those are currently- due to the low background x ray flux still on c level but expected to increase in strength
1. LATEST AND CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL ALERTS
20150606: the active sunspot group 12361/62 rotated in on the eastern limb and is producing major flares those are currently- due to the ölow background flux on c level but expected to increase
PREVIOUS REPORTS AND DATA OF SOLAR SEPS (= Solar proton events) in the current month:
SEP EVENT LOGS
PHASE I ( Proton Emission and impact)
PHASE II > 10/ 100 MeV Electron acummulation
PHASE III (Final discharge
solar event date ( begin)
SEP location
source (AR, sun spot group)
geomagnetic Proton impact ( begin)
proton impact end
maximal intensity ( pfu)
max proton speed ( km/ second
electron actvity/ begin
electron actvity/ end
max intensity ( pfu)
kkk
electron discharge on:
20150512/ after 03 UTC:
uncertain- likely western limb
12335(west) or 12339
20150512/ after 03 UTC
ongoing
7 pfu.
unknown/ trather high
pending
201504
1- 30 ° behind western limb
S4392
20150422/ after 17 UTC
20160528/ 23 UTC
> 1 pfu.
unknown (LOW= < 30.000 km/s. )
continuing from previous SEPs
ongoing
> 1.000 pfu
pending!
20150315
near solar meridian
AR
20150315 after 03 UTC
20160418
08 pfu
high/ unknown
20150419
ongoing
> 10.000 pfu
accumulated electrons.. Values are likely higher than measured due to protons influcence ( altered potential)
pending!
solar event date ( begin)
SEP(class / intensity)
source (AR, sun spot group)
geomagnetic Proton impact ( begin)
proton imact end
maximal intensity ( pfu)
max proton speed ( km/ second
electron actvity/ begin
electron actvity/ end
max intensity ( pfu)
kkk
electron discharge on:
20150128
longer duration SEP
unknown
20150128/ 06 UTC
ongoing
ongiong
unknown
(2.0) ALL SOLAR / TERRESTRIAL (NEAR TO) REAL TIME DATA AND PLOTS:
HEAVY EARTHQUAKE FORECAST
update yourself!
!if the integral electron flux / plot below) should SUDDENLY SHARPLY DROP, STRONGER MAJOR SUBDUCTION EARTHQUAKES become most probable! (globally!) You won`t believe that? Then test it!
Rising integral proton (= proton stotrm) = magmatic and hot spot intrusion with minor earthquakes
( see " NASA earth observatory / land surface temperature anomalies above). The temperature anomalies on the Northern hemisphere became more intensive in February 2015 , with Hudson Bayas in the past years still representing the coldest area and with temperatures in Sibiria in Russia exceeeding those in central and Southern Europe. Part of this anomalies are created by solar SEPs . But scientists also noted an increased shifting of the magnetic poles. Noting the last available report it seems however unlikely, that the Northern magnetic pole shifts towards Siberia as this official report claimed. Its rather likely or seems so, that it has already mainly shifted into Hudson |Bay * where we also have the relatively coldest region on the Northern hemisphere since years. The phenomenon of megnetic field shifting is known since the 60th and was since then observed by a group of american researchers,whonfirst came to the conclusion that the Northern magnetic field would move with expontial speeed/means first just some centimeters per year , than meters ...( but the official scientist still said, that those fluctuations would be quite normal
SOLAR ACCELERATED AND EMMITTED PROTONS IMMIGRATE THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD AND ITS POLAR ORBIT
THE PROTONS CREATE AN ADDITIONAL GRAVITY PULL> THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ATTRACKTS AN EQUIVALENT OF ENERGETIC ELECTRONS FROM THE SOLAR MAGNETIC FIELTO NEUTRALISE THIS + CHARGE
AFTER THE PROTONS NOW ALSO ELECTRONS HAVE LOST THEIR CINETIC ENERGY THROUGH HEAT FRICTION. THE ACCUMULATION COLLAPSES THE EARTH MANTLE - PREVIOUSLY HEATED UP BY THE PROTON IMPACT and ELECTRON EFFECTS.- COOLS DOWN AND CONTRACTS AGAIN.
HEAT EFFECTS ON EARTH CORE AND MANTLE: VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES / MAINLY ON HOT SPOTS( SOUTH POLAR TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (-)
TORNADOES, THUNDERSTORMS, VOLCANIC SURFACE ACTIVITIES TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (m. northern Hemisphere)
> MAJOR AND potential CATASTROPHIC SUBDUCTION QUAKES with magnitudes (> M 8 or even > M 9 ) high enough to create a substantial and widespread Tsunami, if quakes occure subseas.
orange background= this effect is latent but currently not active
JUNE 30 - 2015
M 5.5 - > M 6.0 (LOW )
1-2 (magmatic )
increasing electron activity
JULI 01- 02 2015
M 5.5 - > M 6.0 (LOW )
1-2 (magmatic )
increasing electron activity
20150622: > 10 MeV Protons > 1.000 pfu!
further outlook:
M 5.5. - > M 6.5 ( latent)
1- 3 (MAGMATIC )
HIGH ELECTRON ACCUMULATION!
update will follow
2-3 ( possible subduction!)
PHASE III COOLING DOWN OF TECTONICS/ FINAL DISCHARGE due to final electron discharge/high propability of strong subduction quakes!
ABOUT LATENCIES:
INFLUENCES:
* latent potential for earthquakes with magnitudes higher than M 9.0! Some major catastrophic earthquake might likely happen, when effects of accumulated SEPs diminuish /.> 10 MeV electron accumulation will be neutralised, what is indicated , when electron energy suddenly will sharply drop at its end
EFFECTING AS >
INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW
** estimated
NOTES: ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 with green backgound is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable
(In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!
20140620: remark: Currently I am examining whether also electron accumulations effect on hot spot or surface volcanism
for longer time I have not updated myself on the latest of NASA curiosity rover Mars mission. Now I found some articles with some indeed strange images Curiosity sent to Earth
3. The "crocodile" This nosy crocodile once fully turned into stone , when it lurked up to the sky , when obviously something strange happened, we might call " Medusa effect"
my favourite ones: parts of destroyed buildings? Stone figures similar to the ones found on Eastern islands:
A group of youtube people are just waiting for the next super high resolution image the rover sends home, most people as obviously also the NASA staff does oftenly not take much notice of. Curiosity`s images have such a high resolution that you can search and magnify on them each detail and its just incredible what people find on these images:
Just watch the video( right side): I just can`t prove whether the "vehicle" oin this photo might be a a fake!>
Beside the jokes made upon these discoveries like the video with " the green frog" that survived on Mars after its water channels had dried out, some of these dicoveries just knocked me out of my shoes. Best source for those images on youtube is the channel what`s up in the sky.
However: Its meanwhile in all news and obviously noone could approve yet , that those images would have been faked with an photo editing software!
July 2014: note: as the solar sun spot activity is decreasing now, major events will get less at least until May June 2014 .Therefor, this project is also limited now to basic updates. In July 2014 I decided to update this page only after significant event and changes and to turn this page into an monthly page that will cover significant events and can be archived then in that form.
January 25- 2014:
2013, after 2 years after the second major> M 9 Earthquake had taken place within on decade and after two years of statistic evaluation and comparation of solar and terestrial data, it became clear , that socalled SEPS would be the solar feature I was looking , being that solar feature, that indeed can even have signifiant and even strongest related geophysical effects.
Now in early 2014, the peak off the sun spots cycle seems to be over and related activity visibly have decreased . I don`t expect many stronger and significant solar events for the next half year.
Recently I decided, to close the ongoing solar and terrestrial documentary at this point in this form , as it was made until now., whith complete data and event evaluation as its required for any scientific work . This I did to get this project to a point, that its results would be available and evaluable for further report and can be also a basic for further scientics research
Nevertheless as observations and evaluations have shown , that esp. the socalled SEPs ( solar events with proton emissions) are the almost only geoeffective known type of solar event) those do even have extremely strong and complex effects on the earth body , thos only and best can be descroved described just with the phrase "theoretically can do everything". This is- since SEPs turned out to be the possible cause also for catastrophic earthquakes such as 2014 and 2011 - what this documentary now focussed on. SEPs however do happen MOST frequently during the maximum of the 11 years solar sun spot cycle (last in 2012(13) , but occure also in between but just in lower number.
So I will continue to watch over all these solar data and event and try to provide a full report and complete coverage in time if any furthe major event should take place ..
so the solar teerrestrial blog will be continued in another simplified and limited form:
.
.
..
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
