According to NASA, this 24th. 11 year sun spot cycle has probably a " twin peak"- the second in 2015. This project therefore will be prolongued.
THE 11 YEAR SUN SPOT CYCLE-
LAST MAXIMUM ACTIVITY IN: 2012/ 13 NEXT: APPR. in 2024
SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG
ARCHIVE
MARCH 2015
note: as the solar sun spot activity is decreasing now, less major events are expected at least in the next years. (next cycle minimum expected in 2019)
.Therefor, this project is also limited now to basic updates. In July 2014 I decided to update this page only after significant event and changes and to turn this page into an monthly page that will cover significant events and can be archived then in that form.
research and documentary of the 24th solar cycle with evaluation of certain geoeffective Solar activities (esp. polarised rotating CMEs and SEPs) with coincident terrestrial events such as :
ESSENTIAL SOURCES ON SOLAR ACTIVITIES; Satellite Real Time images and data plots, weblinks etc....click here to expand and close the collapsible panel to read all..
SECTION: LATEST INFORMATION ON SOLAR ACTIVITIES
EVENT RELATED INTERPLANETARY & GEOMAGNETIC DATA PLOTS IMAGES OR VIDEO SOURCES:
(1) SOLAR REAL TIME / CURRENT SATELLITE DATA AND EVENTS
REAL TIME images links for current views on the sun surface- click to enlarge
HOW SOLAR ACTIVITY REPORTS ARE COMMONLY MADE:
SOLAR (NEAR) REAL TIME images as provided by satellites such as SDO, STEREO and SoHO are the first main source on Solar activity data: Various telescopes imaging different levels of frequencies can make sun spots, active regions visoiblöe as well as coronal holes and solar eruptions: solar prominences, flares and associated CMEs ( one exception are proton emissions those remain invisible on any usal imagery. Protons emissions and storms can be measured withe certain instruments instead ( GOES)
Second step is the interplanetary space and solar magnetic field . The Advanced Composition Explorer ( ACE) is "situated" on an geosynchronous orbit outside the geomagnetic field . This satellite has only measurement instruments onboard those deliver various data about the composition of the solar wind. Solar winds blow and circulate regularly through the interplanatary space . Coronal mass ejections and other extraordinary solar events eruptions throw large amounts of solar matter into the interplanetary space . ACE can deliver first data , how strong a possibly earth directed CME might be 1 - 2 days before those CMEs impact and answer the first primary question associated to any CME: Has the main CMEa positive or negative "POLARITY "-( =AN ESPECIAL - PROTON or ELECTRON charge)? means: is the incoming CME NEUTRAL, has it higher accelerated PROTONs or ELECTRONS. THis first question (which one of the two antagonists- the proton or electrons arrives first) determines whether a CME can fully impact into the geomagnetic field or almost NOT AT ALL!
Last not least, in the third step, the GEOSTATIONARY GOES SATELLITES measure what INDEED IMPACTS INTO THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD, basic for all space weather forecasts and forceasts as this one on my page, how strong EARTH DIRECTED CMES might unfluence nature and human civilisation!
-Go to "SOLAR CONTROL CENTER to find out more about these solar observatories or click on the many links on this page to get fisst hand informations!-
SOLAR REAL TIME SAT IMAGES :
note also: SDO, SOHO C3 and STEREO (360° VIEW°) REAL TIME IMAGES ON TOP OF THAT PAGE!
the Earth`s geomagnetic field electrons might defend the Earth even against CMEs from a X 10 flare, what poses the likely only danger , is the attack "from the other side" know as "protons events"
about:
ABOUT: SOLAR PROTON EMISSIONS (proton flares or storms etc. ) ARE RARE EVENTS . But- differently to the mostly of negative charged (electrons) CMEs , PROTON CMEs effect (finally by associated energetic events) until deep into the ground and the Earth`s interior. Proton emissions impact fully into the (negatively charged) geomagnetic field by their positive electric charge and add a positive component to it, what makes the geomag. field TEMPORARELY then also vulnerable especially for following negatively charged CMEs . The protons themselves have paradox effects: first they swallow many electrons (likely reacting with them to neutrons what causes first a "geomagnetic depression" with lower field density (lessactive, free electrons) and paradox ANTIENERGETIC effects (best describable as the "calm prior to the storm" ) .. read more in text box above
Long-range communications using high frequency (HF) radio waves (3 - 30 MHz) depend on reflection of the signals in the ionosphere. Radio waves are typically reflected near the peak of the F2 layer (~300 km altitude), but along the path to the F2 peak and back the radio wave signal suffers attenuation due to absorption by the intervening ionosphere.
Absorption is the process by which the energy of radio waves is converted into heat and electromagnetic (EM) noise through interactions between the radio wave, ionospheric electrons, and the neutral atmosphere (for a more extensive description of the absorption process see Davies, 1990). Most of the absorption occurs in the ionospheric D region (50–90 km altitude) where the product of the electron density and the electron-neutral collision frequency attains a maximum...
The precipitation of protons (as well as other ions) into the earth’s atmosphere during the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events can also create significant enhancements of ionospheric electron densities in the D region. Solar protons with energies between 1 to 200 MeV are primarily responsible for most of ionization of the D region and, consequently, for the ionospheric absorption of HF radio waves. Because of shielding of the earth by its magnetic field SEPs find easy access to the atmosphere only in high latitude regions around the earth’s geomagnetic poles. Such occurrences are therefore termed Polar Cap Absorption (PCA) events....read more...
CLICK HERE FOR INTERNATIONAL MEDIA AND NEWS SOURCES & OTHER EXTERNAL LINKS- DAILY NEWS FROM WHERE IT HAPPENS!..click here to expand and close the collapsible panel to read all..
NEWS CHANNELS:
( collecting of recommendable international news channels is still ongoing...): Note: This list is dedicated to get latest informations directly from regional news channels and sources all over the world . Alien-homepage does not take any responsibility for contents of websites posted on this list nor for their liability
(INTERNAL) find all known volcanoes worldwide on my internal GLOBAL VOLCANO MAPS - including webcams and other features- click here to expand and close the collapsible panel -
The warmest temperature ever recorded on the continent of Antarctica may have occurred on Tuesday, March 24, 2015, when the mercury shot up to 63.5°F (17.5°C) at Argentina's Esperanza Base on the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, the previous hottest temperature recorded in Antarctica was 63.3°F (17.4°C) set just one day previously at Argentina's Marambio Base, on a small islet just off the coast of the Antarctic Peninsula. Prior to this week's remarkable heat wave, the hottest known temperature in Antarctica was the 62.8°F (17.1°C) recorded at Esperanza Base on April 24, 1961. (The World Meteorological Organization—WMO—has not yet certified that this week's temperatures are all-time weather records for Antarctica, though the Argentinian weather service has verified that the temperatures measured at Esperanza Base and Marambio Base were the highest ever measured at each site.) A new all-time temperature record for an entire continent is a rare event, and Weather Underground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has full details in his latest post.
New all-time national and territorial heat records set or tied in 2015
So far in 2015, five nations or territories have tied or set all-time records for their hottest temperature in recorded history. For comparison, only two nations or territories did so in 2014, and nine did in 2013. The most all-time national heat records in a year was nineteen in 2010 (21 records at the time, but two have been broken since.)Since 2010, 46 nations or territories (out of a total of 235) have set or tied all-time heat records, and four have set all-time cold temperature records. Since each of those years ranked as one of the top twelve warmest years in Earth's recorded history, this sort of disparity in national heat and cold records is to be expected. Most nations do not maintain official databases of extreme temperature records, so the national temperature records reported here are in many cases not official. I use as my source for international weather records Maximiliano Herrera, one of the world's top climatologists, who maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website. If you reproduce this list of extremes, please cite Maximiliano Herrera as the primary source of the weather records. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt maintains a database of these national heat and cold records for 235 nations and territories on wunderground.com's extremes page. Here are the national heat and cold records set so far in 2015:
Antarctica set a new territorial heat record of 17.5°C (63.5°F) at Esperanza Base on March 24. Previous record: 17.4°C (63.3°F) at Marambio Base, set the previous day. Equatorial Guinea set a new national heat record of 35.5°C (95.9°F) at Bata on March 17. Previous record: 35.3°C (95.5°F) at Malabo in February 1957. Ghana tied the national record of highest temperature with 43.0°C (109.4°F) at Navrongo on February 12. Wallis and Futuna Territory (France) set a new territorial heat record with 35.5°C (95.9°F) on January 19 at Futuna Airport. Samoa tied its national heat record with 36.5°C (97.7°F) on January 20 at Asau. Previously record: same location, in December 1977.
20140331 serial of stronger earthquakes in the Eastern Pacific but also in the Mediterranean sea.
ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG : click here for EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES/ CURRENT MONTH:
Inhalt
IMPORTANT REMARK ( see more below) 20150329: Following the last major SEP on March 15, the > 2.0 Me V integral electron flux increased - a s usually- this time after March 18 to values temporaraley exceeding 10.000 pfu. On 20150324 another but very weak SEP was noticed by GOES with values not higher than 0.5 pfu. This likely caused the disturbance with in integral electrons noticed the days after (img.) On March 29 then the electron flux dropped back to levels below 1.000 pfu..
A fter such a long time more 3 years, during these- caused by an continuing production of new SEP events on the Sun- the electron flux never really dropped back to normal levels ( between 10 and 100 pfu) its becomes difficult to judge by the GOES graph when these electron charges finally or temporarely will do so and discharge. (20150329) Several major earthquakes in the eastern Pacific region after March 29 ff now suggested, that there is a high chance that the tectonics heated up by these particle events now are going to cool down anyway. and strong subduction quakes ( following the magma intrusions we have seen associated to the SEP for several years now) especially in these region would become a major and large scaled risk. The graphic curves of electron flux ( images : see below) show comprimated lines ( means a comprimation of these int. electron by the gravkity of impacted protons) THis usually is a clear indicator that this drop of integral electron.
flux after March 29 is caused by the minor Proton event ( SERP on March 24 and not that FINAL DISCHARGE that stands at the end of the effects of single or accumulated SEPs. But I won`t be sure now.
A serial of larger quakes was also 2004 and 2011 the only indicator for the disastrous earthquakes that would occure just days later, creating even tsunamis those costed the lives of thousands. Before the final > M9 quake occured on Dec 26- 2004, that serial of stronger earthquakes ( accomponied by sveral nerwe SEPs in between) had continued even for weeks!! This is WHy I issue NOW a preliminary major HIGH ALERT WARNING for the coming days ( especially for the region of the eastern pacific including the all American Pacific coast) This alert for a possible > M 9 quake there will be modified or canceled , if the electron flux should rise again the coming days what would indicate , that there is still an electron disturbance by active protons ( what would again mean that the time of SEP PHASE III has not come yet delay AGAIN that time for the SEP Phase III ( final electron discharge) for an unknown time.
this section also refers to quake activities those typically occure since 2011 in a radius of 100- 200 km around the eifel volcano field, while the region in between stays rather calm. This typically indicates the possibiltiy of hot magma with in the area in between that radius where NO Seimic quakes occure .- Hot magma makes no seismic effects but causes tensions and seismic quakes just on its bondaries where it meets with colder rock formations
NOTICES: the swarm quake activity along the San Andreas fault had significantly increased in strength as well as in frequency since January- 04 2014. The swarm quake activity which as related to magma intrusion through the San Andreas fault is continuing since then on ausually low, but constant level . The r eport here will therefore be updated only , when the overall activity significantly increases or if the earthquake swarm activity shifts to other related regions near and along the San Andreas fault.
yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values
*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report
ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT:
LATEST RELATED CME(SEP IMPACT
20140107/20140218-20/ 20140225
01- 04/ 14
EXPLANATIONS>
Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.
Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./
Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest SEP/ CME . Colors from orange to light red mark GRADUAL IMPACTS OF MULTIPLE CMEs CLUSTERS.
HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST>
INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions!
STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS
The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER a LATENCY period due to CME IMPACT on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES within the RED until the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Read "latency remarks"
REGIONS
REGION "A"
REGION "B"(1)
REGION "B"(2)
REGION "C"
REGION"
D"
REGION "E" (1)
REGION "E" (2)
REGION "F"
REGIONS COVERED BY LATEST CME IMPACT>
EASTERN EURASIA-- INDONESIA-WESTERN PACIFIC PHILIPPINES--AUSTRALIA WEST
JAPAN/EAST- AUSTRALIA/ (EAST), PNG. NZL
ALEUT./ KAMCHATKA- EASTERN PACIFIC/ HAWAII
WESTERN USA+ WEST COAST- EASTERN PACIFIC- CANADA-ALASKA
GULF OF MEXICO/ PANAMERICA/CA./ CENTRAL USA/ SOUTH - AMERICA- WEST
, EASTERN ATLANTIC/ (CANARIES/ ICELAND)- N & S- AMERICA/ EAST
CENTRAL (WEST) EUROPE/ AFRICA
INDIA & INDIAN OCEAN- CENTR: EURASIA, AFRICA (EAST), ARABIA ASIA MINOR
20150330:GERMANWINGS ABSTURZUNGLÜCKSSTELLE keine TREIBSTOFFEXPLOSION KEINERLEI VERKOHLTEN TEILE - keine SPUR vom KEROSIN! ...
20150328: DELETED REPORT AT EURONEWS SUGGESTED THAT THE GERMANWINGS FLIGHT 4U9525 CRASHED BY A (COMPLEX) BOARD COMPUTER FAILURE---
(RT/ 20150327/ 31 Major power outage throughout northern Holland and (31) Turkey
20150330: GERMANWINGS ABSTURZ: keine TREIBSTOFFEXPLOSION KEINERLEI VERKOHLTEN TEILE - keine SPUR vom KEROSIN! IST DIE MASCHINE EINFACH ABGESTÜRZT WEIL DER SPRIT ZU ENDE WAR ?
Mit Geld lässt sich offenbar doch so manches an Trauer und Schmerz kompensieren aber: was wir da an angeblichen "Ermittlungen" erleben ist eine absprache zwischen Politik/ Justiz, Airlinebetreiber und der alleruntersten schmier und dreckwerfer presse die das land zu bieten hat,, die in ihrer art und Weise trotz aller schlimmen Hetzkampagnen die das land bereits in der Vergangenheit auf dem kerbholz hat , mit zum ekelhaftesten zählt was ich mir hier je mitansehen musste)Ermittlungen die schamlos vor der ganzen Welt als Zeuge überhaupt nur nach solchen indizien sucht und nur noch solche bewertet (und seien sie auch noch so gering!!) welche die These des Selbstmordattentäters in gestalt des Copilioten Andreas Lobitz unterstützen, aber alle anderen offenkundigen Standardfragen und feststellungen die man selbst als fernsehzuschauer gewohnheitsmäßig abckeckt gar nicht erst nachgeht oder aber sie bewussst übergeht und ignoriert. So wurde gestern zwar eine weitere salamischeibe aus dem Voice recorder nachgereicht, nach der der Pilot an der verschlossenenn türe gesagt hätte " mach die verdammte Türe auf" Ein "aha" Gefühl kommt da lange noch nicht auf und man frägt sich nur was das alles letztlich für ein Zweck verfolgt. .Dieser ausschließich verfolgte Verdacht ist außer wenigen nicht eindeutigen Indizien derzeit in keiner Weise auch nur annähernd bewiesen und dürfte als solcher gar nicht erst geäußert werden solange die Daten des Flight Rekorders nicht zur Verfügung stehen und eindeutig beweisen dass die wesentlichen für den reibungslosen Flug erforderlichen Bestandteile des Flugzeug zum Zeitpunkt des Zwischenfalls auch wirklich funktionstüchtig waren. und funktionierten Trotzdem tut jeder so als ob es wahr bzw bewiesen wäre. und die Politik schlachtet den Vorfall bereits als eine art deutschen 911 aus. Doch kaum jemand hat vor lauter amok bemerkt , dass beim absturz keinerlei explosion des Treibstoffes auftrat - keines der Teile die man auf den zahlreichen Photos sieht weist irgendwelche Brandspuren auf Auch am Felsen selbst und am Boden ist nix zu entdecken , keine kokelnden Teile wie sonst üblich , das Flugzeug- sollte es ausreichend betankt gewesen sein hätte bein aufprall noch mindestens 2/ 3 des Treibstoffes in den Tanks haben müssen und die hätten bei der aufprallgeschwindigkeit einen gigantischen feuerball erzeugt. Dass der Treibstoff dabei nicht explodieren würde ist zu 99 % ausgeschlossen und würde u.A. voraussetzen, dass auch die Triebwerke abgeschaltet waren . man suchte auch gar nicht nicht nach kerosin im Boden um die Unglückstelle und in der knappe Woche die seit dem Absturz vergangen sind , wäre solches beim aufprall nicht explodierende Kerosin wohl längst verdunstet id. h die Spur bereits kalt . Pflanzen um die stelle müssten allerdings spuren zeigen und würde wohl in den nächsten wochen daran eingehen. Um in der schnellschußlogik der ermittler und presse zubleiben wäre das FLUGZZEUG ALSO PRAKTISCH ABGESTÜRZT WEIL ES KEINEN SPRIT MEHR HATTE- SO EI(NFACH!! ANMERKUNG das Flugzeug hatte nach 30 Minuten nicht einmal ein Drittel der Strecke zurückgelegt (Flugzeit optimal: ca 80 Minuten) was wohl bedeutet dass sie beim Anflug auf die Alpen stärkerern Gegenwind hatte uncorrected
l PS Now- the page is suddenly back online again. However i copied it yesterday while it was deleted or removed to have that proof for. so- if no human influence just another computer failure!!
I THINK: .The dual system of a computer would be the most perfect calculation machine theoretically unable to make a mistake. But its far away from anything suggested in startrek enterprise) the reason why it makes mistakes maybe hardware disfunctions ( means bad or shabby builtt hardware) some unexpected anomalies in the computers environment ( such as the missing of safety functions against overvoltages, electric shocks or electron accumulation) or software mistakes such as by microgates who same as the apple founder not even had completed their university IT studies before they started to builtt what experts still call the "largest virus in the world" all MS operating system one can use hardly one year after that more and more in it crashes or freezes in and the operating system has to be installed again..
The report about the function of the cockpit door at the end of that posting I found yesterday at euronews (and luckily copied at least the important parts of the text message. It was soon deleted when I yesterday evening tried to bring that to discussion at euronews and german State TV) Its in german .So I post it here originally that everybody sees that it is the original message: IT says, that: EVEN IF THE COPILOT INSIDE THE COCKPIT WOULD HAVE LOCKED THE DOOR by that switch (that disables the code entry by pilot and crew with an emergency code),THE DOOR WOULD EACH 5 Minutes later AUTOMATICALLY OPEN for 10 seconds. BUT OBVIOUSLY IT DIDN`T!!!!
THat would indicate cleary a computer failure.
however if information on that euronews page deleted yesterday would have been (un-) intendedly false, noone would delete such a page than but would be even obliged rather to correct the false information in it
So- lets summarize: As we know: (source: BBC) that briefing between pilot an co was finished at 9:20 GMT, Soon after- so the French prosecutor- the pilot went to the toilet (for how long exactl?) . So- if the Co pilot wants INTENDEDLY to lock him out, he would try to to that soon after the pilot had left .HOWEVER: the pilot came back minutes later and tried then until that time when the plane crashed to GET INSIDE : The plane crashed some after 9:40 UTC. this would be up to 20 MInutes (!!!) after the DOOR WAS LOCKED. So in this time , that door - due to the euronews report- would have been unlocked automatically ( and WITHOUT ANYONE ON THE PLANE COULD INFLUENCE THAT!) at least 3 times for 10 seconds proior to that tima when the plane than actually crashed BUT IT DID NOT A clear proof that all that was a COMPUTER Failure !!
( possibly and that theory is what I am following in my solar report on my homepage) by an electric charge caused by an electrons accumulation/ storm with an value for the > 2.0 MeV Electrons reaching 10.000 pfu on these days) such an electrone accumulation/ charge would change the potential and the current would drop: all devices could stop abruptly and at the same time.
Ask also whether a sinkng flight at that rate possible anyway Its seems rather to have been a plummet after a so called "Stall" thanks: here the original text from that page that was deleted yesterday after I tried to bring that to discussion:
Der geborgene Stimmrekorder enthält Geräusche, die nach Meinung der Ermittler darauf hindeuten, dass Besatzungsmitglieder in den letzten Minuten vor dem Absturz versuchten, die Cockpit-Tür gewaltsam zu öffnen. Nach den Flugzeugentführungen am 11. September 2001, bei denen die Terroristen die Cockpits stürmten, wurden zusätzliche Sicherheitsmaßnahmen installiert, um das Eindringen Unbefugter zu verhindern. Normalerweise gibt die Besatzung einen Code ein, um sich Zutritt zum Cockpit zu verschaffen. Von innen wird die Tür dann per Knopfdruck entriegelt. Wird die Tür nicht entriegelt, wird die Cockpit-Besatzung per Gegensprechanlage aufgefordert zu öffnen. Für den Fall, dass Pilot, Kopilot oder beide das Bewusstsein verloren haben oder aus einem sonstigen Grund die Tür nicht öffnen können, verfügt die Besatzung über einen Notfallcode. Wird dieser eingegeben, ertönt zunächst ein akustisches Signal. Anschließend ist die Tür für 30 Sekunden entriegelt. Allerdings kann diese Notfallautomatik im Cockpit ausgeschaltet werden. In diesem Fall kann die Tür fünf Minuten lang ausschließlich von innen geöffnet werden, danach ist sie für zehn Sekunden freigegeben http://de.euronews.com/2015/03/26/wie-konnte-sich-der-kopilot-im-cockpit-einschliessen/ WIESO MUSSTE MAN DANN- KURZ VOR DEM AUFPRALL ALSO NACH DEN 5 MINUTEN (??) VERSUCHEN GEWALTSAM ZU ÖFFNEN? auch sehr interessant: Rätselhafte Äußerung von Lufthansa-Vizepräsidentin zu Unglücksflug 4U9525: Heike Birlenbach, Vizepräsidentin für Vertrieb und Marketing Europa, wurde von einer Journalistin mit offenbar spanischem Akzent auf Englisch gebeten, Informationen über das Flugzeug zu wiederholen, die auf einer Pressekonferenz von Germanwings gegeben worden waren. Ihre erste Antwort lautete „Beg your pardon?“ („Entschuldigen Sie bitte!“) Das kann sich auf die Akustik bezogen haben. Nachdem die Bitte um Informationen über das Flugzeug wiederholt wurde, antwortet sie: „I cannot comment on this“ (“Dazu kann ich keinen Kommentar abgeben”) und wandte sich an ihren Assistenten. Offenbar ohne zu bedenken, dass die Pressekonferenz aufgezeichnet wurde, sagte sie zu ihm: „Das war das, was er nicht sagen sollte!“ hier im O Ton: http://de.euronews.com/2015/03/24/ratselhafte-auaeerung-von-lufthansa-vizeprasidentin-zu-unglucksflug-4u9525/
Large areas of the Netherlands have been left without electricity. The north of the country has been mainly affected, with the Dutch electricity network operator saying the outage has been caused by a power grid overload.
The capital Amsterdam has been hit, along with the area around Schiphol Airport. Twitter has reported that some hospitals in Amsterdam have been left without power, while the tram and metro networks are also not running in the capital. Thousands of people have been stuck on public transport because the doors will not open as they are controlled electronically.
A giant power outage in Turkey paralyzed the country’s transportation system on Tuesday,forcing confused locals to ride the bus instead of the tramway and metro. Blackouts crippled dozens of cities including Istanbul and the capital Ankara. Local media said this was Turkey’s biggest power outage in over a decade. It started shortly after 10:30 in the morning local time, closing down tram and metro lines, switching off traffic lights and causing traffic jams. Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said it could be just a technical glitch but that all possible causes were being examined, including terrorism. The blackouts have forced millions of locals to find alternative itineraries, and the energy ministry has set up a crisis centre to look into the problem. >>
Investigators have listened closely to the audio and say the co-pilot, 28-year-old Andreas Lubitz, appears to have deliberately brought the plane down. So how did this final half hour unfold?
Germanwings flight 4U 9525 took off from Barcelona Airport heading for Duesseldorf, with 150 people on board, at 09:01 GMT on 24 March.
The Airbus 320 began travelling over the sea towards France, taking about half an hour to climb to 38,000ft (11,600m).
It should have been a two-hour flight.
At 09:30 GMT the plane made its final contact with air traffic control - a routine message about permission to continue on its route. Everything seemed to be going as planned.
A minute later at 09:31 GMT, the plane began its descent.
French prosecutor Brice Robin did not release the exact timings of the audio obtained from the recorder, but he said the pilots conversed normally for the first 20 minutes.However, Mr Robin said although the co-pilot's responses were initially courteous, they became "curt" when the captain began the mid-flight briefing on the planned landing. Shortly after this the captain left the cockpit, probably to go to the toilet, according to Mr Robin.
He can be heard asking the co-pilot to take control of the plane. A seat moves backwards, followed by the sound of a door closing. The co-pilot was left alone in control of the plane. He then pressed the buttons of the flight monitoring systems to send the aircraft into descent, Mr Robin said. "This action on the altitude controls can only be deliberate," said Mr Robin.
image left: Cockpit voice recorder as found after th crash >
where is the flight data recorder??
image left side: first report after crash by BBC>>
(eigener noch nicht korrigierter Entwurf / Kommentar) :
Germanwings Flug 4U9525 SINKFLUG ODER STURZFLUG?
Technisches Versagen ausgeschlossen! 20 Jahre seitdem man relativ blindlings micorelektronik einsetzte, wo früher mal ein Mensch saß oder aber ein weniger empfindlicher Transistor, will man nicht mehr darauf verzichten oder aber 20 Jahre technische Entwicklung überarbeiten oder verschrotten. Was passiert. WAS TUN? wenn die überaus empfindliche Microelektronik so eines flight computer "stehenbleibt" (einfriert") , sei es aufgrund statischer elektrischer aufladung oder ( verg Costa Concordia) wenn das GPS signal unterbrochen wird, weil sich z B ein Satellite durch solare elektronen auflädt und der autopilot einfach stur weiter den letzten Kurs verfolgt und nicht mehr auf manuelle eingaben reagiert? Das ist nicht anders als zuhause am PC! da hilft nur: runterfahren/ besser : Strom zufuhr unterbrechen und neustarten. Bis dieser prozess , der mehrere Minuten dauert, dann abgeschlossen ist, hat das vollautomatische gesteuerte Kreuzfahrtschiff längst einen felsen gerammt bzw der Flieger befindet sich im nirgendwo über den Wolken die schadhafte Software ( hoffentlich nicht vion Microgates oder apple) veriegelt vielleicht die Türen, der Kabinendruck fällt ab ( Ohnmacht) , der Flieger fliegt im kreis oder eher: hat einen Strömungsabriss Der tritt auf (Quelle; MSFS ohne Gewähr ) sobald der horiziontale winkel des Fliegers entweder ca 20° überschreitet bzw ca 10 ° unterschreitet. das muss auch beim Sinkflug so eingehalten werden) Folge: der Flieger gerät sobald die Fluglage nicht mehr kontrolliert wird automatisch ( von selbst also) je nach Gewichtsverteilung in eine horizontale lage: es kommt dann zum Strömungsabriss und Sturzflug und der kann nur noch manuell "abgefangen" werden . GESPANNT lauschte man heute deshalb den Ausführungen des französischen Staatsanwaltes zu ersten /( und obwohl man die blackbox mit den Flugdaten noch nicht gefunden haben will) aber trotzdem auch bereits endgültigen Erkenntnissen zum Absturz des A 320. Fünf MInuten später . als ich nach dem Namen des Co Piloten suchte lief das Propaganda Bullhorn bereits auf Hochtouren , d. h. das netz quoll über vom geschlagenen Schaum gleichlautenden Meldungen abertausender onlineausgaben internationaler Gazetten, Am abend dann bereits die ersten TV Talkshows mit den üblichen Psychologen die jetzt das nächste jahr das Abendptrogrammm füllen werden ,(die "Anstalt" wurde abgesagt.) in welchen die Vermutungen des Ermittlers auf den Punkt :, bzw. gleichmal in Blei gegossen bzw. lange wiederholt werden, bis sie jedermann den deutschen 911 verinnerlicht hat :Andreas alleine im Cockpit ! Copilot Andreas Lubitz nutzte die Gelegenheit dass der Pilot die Toilette aufsuchte, um die gepanzerte Tür zum Cockpit von innen elektronisch zu verriegeln wie bei einem terroristischen Angriff um dann - so der Sta- “mittels eines Drehknopfes” am Frontpanel” den Sinkflug einzuleiten welchen die maschine dann bereits nach 8 minuten abschloss, in dem sie an einem Felsen der französischen Alpen zerbarst. das gasnze erst mal SInkflug zu nennen ( ein solcher geht nur ber hunderte Kilometer) ist ein schlechter Witz undv würde bedeuten dass die airline das regelmäßig so mittels eines ströumngsabrisses macht , Wie auch immer: Vergeblich klopfte der Pilot an die Cockpittüre und bat um EInlass, bis er schließlich vergeblich versuichte die gepanzerte Türe mit Gewalt zu öffnen. Zuerst hieß es, der Copilot hätte den ali baba code der Türe geändert, so dass der Codedes Pilot nicht mehr funktionierte, dann aber war es wieder nur ein schalter den man da umlegen muss von "normal" auf “Unlock bzw. "Lock", um den Piloten auszusperren ...
Die Passagiere ahnten angeblich zuerst nichts ( das ist bei einem Sturzfluig aber eher fraglich) , dass A L den "sinkflug eingeleitet hatte um selbstmord zu begehen.Geschrei war erst kurz vor dem aufschlag zu hören so der STA: und A L atmete bis zum schluss völlig normal und war praktisch nicht mal aufgeregt, obwohl er als einziger vom nahem Ende wusste. Ein Ohnmacht scheidet deswegen aus, weil AL um den Sinkflug einzuleiten einen Drehknopf am Frontpanel praktisch pausenlos drehen musste, behaupteten bald darauf gleichwohl "unisono angebliche Flugexperten" auf allen Kanälen und erfanden dazu einen Schallter den es so bzw zu diesem zwecke ( nämlich: um VORSÄTZLICH "den sinkflug einzuleiten) aber im A 320/ 21 offenbar gar nicht gibt ( quelle Microsoft flight simulator x)
WIe auch immer Das Flugzeug hatte- so die offizielle Verskion- gerade auf Reiseflughöhe erreicht das sind so etwa 10-000- 11.000 meter und schlug 8 Minuten nach “einleitung des Sinkfluges auf dem Boden, bzw Felsen auf.:
Bei einer Freifallgeschwindigkeit von ca 9,.8 meter pro sekunde ( das macht 9,8 mal 8 x 60) kommt man ( nach Newton usw) in 8 minuten gerade mal 4.704 Meter weit bzw. tief. . Hat der CO etwa die maschine mit vollem Schub in in einen sturzflug gebracht und in den Boden gerammt oder aber
r : geriet sie bzw die steuersoftware des zui 90% computerabhängigen Fluggeräters völlig außer kontrolle? war es der elektronensturm mit über 10.000 pfu der an diesen tagen herrschte?
Ich weiß nicht was ich vom Microsoft flug simulator halten soll. Ziemlich sicher bin ich allerdings, dass Piloten international so einen heutzutage allgemein üblichen vertraglichen Maulkorb haben der es bei höchsten Vertragsstrafen verbietet , ohne schriftliche Genehmigung der Fuggesellschaft irgendwas über diese Interna zu veröffentlichen . Im MSFS wird der der angebliche Drehknopf den man da betätigen muss “Altidude Hold Lock” genannt .Daneben ist ein zweiter Knopf
mit der Bezeichnung “Vertical speed Hold/select” Offenbar dienen die Schalter dazu, über den Bordcomputer die Flufbahn auf einer Höhe zu stabilisieren oder einen gleichmäßigen Steigflug zubgewährleisten . Mit aktivierrtem autopilot dürften diese ganzen schalter aber gar nicht funktionieren. Kann man den autopiloten aber deaktivieren frägt man sich wozu es sich der Copilot so komopliziert macht, um abzustürzen bräuchte er ja nur das "steuerknüppel" nach Vorne drücken (Höhenruder) . "runter kommen sie ja immer"
wie auch immer: die Theorie hängt an diesem Knopf,. der aber offenbar gar kein "Sinkflugknopf" ist (so einen gibt es im MS simulator zumindest nicht., wozu auch? wie soll man den Sinkflug auch genau berechnen?e Eine Ohnmacht des Copiloten scheidet damit automatisch deswegen aus , weil der sonst ja den “Sinkflugknopf nicht hätte über 8 Minuten betätigen können” , so die bestechende Logik des Staatsanwaltes. Am 26-3- 2015 um 13 uhr hatte MiPr H. Kraft bereits den "deutschen 911" konstatiert aber zu
erst die Schule in ? darüber informiert dass der Copilot Selbstmord begangen hätte und dabei 140 Menschen mit in den Tod riss, bevor dann um ca. 14 uhr der fr Staatsánwaltschaft welche dies der öffentlichkeit mitteilteund den internetsturm der propaganda bullhorns auslöste Als man 10 Minuten nach einem Piloten mit namen Andreas Lobitz googelte wurde ein facebook seite gelistet . Als man sie öffnen wollte kam nur noch die Meldung ” diese Seite wurde kürzlich gelöscht und existiert nicht mehr . hatten wir schon mal nach der Sache in WInnenden Hauptsache es gibt einen schuldigen bei höhererr Gewalt zahlt ja die versicherung auch nix…
dem Microsoft flugsimulator zufolge (ohne gewähr) bewträgt die direkte entfernung Barcelona/ Düsseldorf nur schlappe 700 km(oder sind es meilenO) die Flugzeit beträgt etwa 1 Stunde, 19 Minuten. also :; absolute KURZSTRECKE. das Flugzeug wird eine parabel fliuegen und gleich nach dem steigflug wieder in den Sinkflug übergehen... SCIO NESCIO ( Sokrates: "Ich weiß dass ich nichts weiß)
20150326:Germanwings Flug 4U9525 SINKFLUG ODER STURZFLUG?
20150328: Major power outage throughout northern Holland
Large areas of the Netherlands have been left without electricity. The north of the country has been mainly affected, with the Dutch electricity network operator saying the outage has been caused by a power grid overload.
The capital Amsterdam has been hit, along with the area around Schiphol Airport. Twitter has reported that some hospitals in Amsterdam have been left without power, while the tram and metro networks are also not running in the capital. Thousands of people have been stuck on public transport because the doors will not open as they are controlled electronically.
Germanwings Flug 4U9525 SINKFLUG ODER STURZFLUG?
Technisches Versagen ausgeschlossen! 20 Jahre seitdem man relativ blindlings microelektronik einsetzte, wo früher mal ein Mensch saß oder aber ein weniger empfindlicher Transistor, will man nicht mehr darauf verzichten oder aber 20 Jahre technische Entwicklung überarbeiten oder verschrotten. Was passiert. WAS TUN? wenn die überaus empfindliche Microelektronik so eines flight computer "stehenbleibt" (einfriert") , sei es aufgrund statischer elektrischer aufladung oder ( verg Costa Concordia) wenn das GPS signal unterbrochen wird, weil sich z B ein Satellite durch solare elektronen auflädt und der autopilot einfach stur weiter den letzten Kurs verfolgt und nicht mehr auf manuelle eingaben reagiert? Das ist nicht anders als zuhause am PC! da hilft nur: runterfahren/ besser : Strom zufuhr unterbrechen und neustarten. Bis dieser prozess , der mehrere Minuten dauert, dann abgeschlossen ist, hat das vollautomatische gesteuerte Kreuzfahrtschiff längst einen felsen gerammt bzw der Flieger befindet sich im nirgendwo über den Wolken die schadhafte Software ( hoffentlich nicht vion Microgates oder apple) veriegelt vielleicht die Türen, der Kabinendruck fällt ab ( Ohnmacht) , der Flieger fliegt im kreis oder eher: hat einen Strömungsabriss Der tritt auf (Quelle; MSFS ohne Gewähr ) sobald der horiziontale winkel des Fliegers entweder ca 20° überschreitet bzw ca 10 ° unterschreitet. das muss auch beim Sinkflug so eingehalten werden) Folge: der Flieger gerät sobald die Fluglage nicht mehr kontrolliert wird automatisch ( von selbst also) je nach Gewichtsverteilung in eine horizontale lage: es kommt dann zum Strömungsabriss und Sturzflug und der kann nur noch manuell "abgefangen" werden . GESPANNT lauschte man heute deshalb den Ausführungen des französischen Staatsanwaltes zu ersten /( und obwohl man die blackbox mit den Flugdaten noch nicht gefunden haben will) aber trotzdem auch bereits endgültigen Erkenntnissen zum Absturz des A 320. Fünf MInuten später . als ich nach dem Namen des Co Piloten suchte lief das Propaganda Bullhorn bereits auf Hochtouren , d. h. das netz quoll über vom geschlagenen Schaum gleichlautenden Meldungen abertausender onlineausgaben internationaler Gazetten, Am abend dann bereits die ersten TV Talkshows mit den üblichen Psychologen die jetzt das nächste jahr das Abendptrogrammm füllen werden ,(die "Anstalt" wurde abgesagt.) in welchen die Vermutungen des Ermittlers auf den Punkt :, bzw. gleichmal in Blei gegossen bzw. lange wiederholt werden, bis sie jedermann den deutschen 911 verinnerlicht hat :Andreas alleine im Cockpit ! Copilot Andreas Lubitz nutzte die Gelegenheit dass der Pilot die Toilette aufsuchte, um die gepanzerte Tür zum Cockpit von innen elektronisch zu verriegeln wie bei einem terroristischen Angriff um dann - so der Sta- “mittels eines Drehknopfes” am Frontpanel” den Sinkflug einzuleiten welchen die maschine dann bereits nach 8 minuten abschloss, in dem sie an einem Felsen der französischen Alpen zerbarst. das gasnze erst mal SInkflug zu nennen ( ein solcher geht nur ber hunderte Kilometer) ist ein schlechter Witz undv würde bedeuten dass die airline das regelmäßig so mittels eines ströumngsabrisses macht , Wie auch immer: Vergeblich klopfte der Pilot an die Cockpittüre und bat um EInlass, bis er schließlich vergeblich versuichte die gepanzerte Türe mit Gewalt zu öffnen. Zuerst hieß es, der Copilot hätte den ali baba code der Türe geändert, so dass der Codedes Pilot nicht mehr funktionierte, dann aber war es wieder nur ein schalter den man da umlegen muss von "normal" auf “Unlock bzw. "Lock", um den Piloten auszusperren ...
Die Passagiere ahnten angeblich zuerst nichts ( das ist bei einem Sturzfluig aber eher fraglich) , dass A L den "sinkflug eingeleitet hatte um selbstmord zu begehen.Geschrei war erst kurz vor dem aufschlag zu hören so der STA: und A L atmete bis zum schluss völlig normal und war praktisch nicht mal aufgeregt, obwohl er als einziger vom nahem Ende wusste. Ein Ohnmacht scheidet deswegen aus, weil AL um den Sinkflug einzuleiten einen Drehknopf am Frontpanel praktisch pausenlos drehen musste, behaupteten bald darauf gleichwohl "unisono angebliche Flugexperten" auf allen Kanälen und erfanden dazu einen Schallter den es so bzw zu diesem zwecke ( nämlich: um VORSÄTZLICH "den sinkflug einzuleiten) aber im A 320/ 21 offenbar gar nicht gibt ( quelle Microsoft flight simulator x)
WIe auch immer Das Flugzeug hatte- so die offizielle Verskion- gerade auf Reiseflughöhe erreicht das sind so etwa 10-000- 11.000 meter und schlug 8 Minuten nach “einleitung des Sinkfluges auf dem Boden, bzw Felsen auf.:
Bei einer Freifallgeschwindigkeit von ca 9,.8 meter pro sekunde ( das macht 9,8 mal 8 x 60) kommt man ( nach Newton usw) in 8 minuten gerade mal 4.704 Meter weit bzw. tief. . Hat der CO etwa die maschine mit vollem Schub in in einen sturzflug gebracht und in den Boden gerammt oder aber
r : geriet sie bzw die steuersoftware des zui 90% computerabhängigen Fluggeräters völlig außer kontrolle? war es der elektronensturm mit über 10.000 pfu der an diesen tagen herrschte?
Ich weiß nicht was ich vom Microsoft flug simulator halten soll. Ziemlich sicher bin ich allerdings, dass Piloten international so einen heutzutage allgemein üblichen vertraglichen Maulkorb haben der es bei höchsten Vertragsstrafen verbietet , ohne schriftliche Genehmigung der Fuggesellschaft irgendwas über diese Interna zu veröffentlichen . Im MSFS wird der der angebliche Drehknopf den man da betätigen muss “Altidude Hold Lock” genannt .Daneben ist ein zweiter Knopf
mit der Bezeichnung “Vertical speed Hold/select” Offenbar dienen die Schalter dazu, über den Bordcomputer die Flufbahn auf einer Höhe zu stabilisieren oder einen gleichmäßigen Steigflug zubgewährleisten . Mit aktivierrtem autopilot dürften diese ganzen schalter aber gar nicht funktionieren. Kann man den autopiloten aber deaktivieren frägt man sich wozu es sich der Copilot so komopliziert macht, um abzustürzen bräuchte er ja nur das "steuerknüppel" nach Vorne drücken (Höhenruder) . "runter kommen sie ja immer"
wie auch immer: die Theorie hängt an diesem Knopf,. der aber offenbar gar kein "Sinkflugknopf" ist (so einen gibt es im MS simulator zumindest nicht., wozu auch? wie soll man den Sinkflug auch genau berechnen?e Eine Ohnmacht des Copiloten scheidet damit automatisch deswegen aus , weil der sonst ja den “Sinkflugknopf nicht hätte über 8 Minuten betätigen können” , so die bestechende Logik des Staatsanwaltes. Am 26-3- 2015 um 13 uhr hatte MiPr H. Kraft bereits den "deutschen 911" konstatiert aber zu
erst die Schule in ? darüber informiert dass der Copilot Selbstmord begangen hätte und dabei 140 Menschen mit in den Tod riss, bevor dann um ca. 14 uhr der fr Staatsánwaltschaft welche dies der öffentlichkeit mitteilteund den internetsturm der propaganda bullhorns auslöste Als man 10 Minuten nach einem Piloten mit namen Andreas Lobitz googelte wurde ein facebook seite gelistet . Als man sie öffnen wollte kam nur noch die Meldung ” diese Seite wurde kürzlich gelöscht und existiert nicht mehr . hatten wir schon mal nach der Sache in WInnenden Hauptsache es gibt einen schuldigen bei höhererr Gewalt zahlt ja die versicherung auch nix…
dem Microsoft flugsimulator zufolge (ohne gewähr) bewträgt die direkte entfernung Barcelona/ Düsseldorf nur schlappe 700 km(oder sind es meilenO) die Flugzeit beträgt etwa 1 Stunde, 19 Minuten. also :; absolute KURZSTRECKE. das Flugzeug wird eine parabel fliuegen und gleich nach dem steigflug wieder in den Sinkflug übergehen... SCIO NESCIO ( Sokrates: "Ich weiß dass ich nichts weiß)
Grieving loved ones were taken close to the site in the southern French Alps where 150 people were killed in the tragic crash of a Germanwings Airbus on Tuesday. Italian RAI 3 focused on the families’ emotions.
French officials revealed chilling evidence from the plane’s flight recorder that the disaster appeared to have been caused deliberately. They said the copilot flew into the ground on purpose, locking the senior pilot out of the cockpit, France 3 reported.
The French poured resources into the crash zone, hundreds of gendarmes, firemen, medical staff and forensic experts — each one winched into steep ravines by helicopter. Nothing could land in the extreme terrain, France 2 television observed.
Among the many killed was a group of German exchange students and their teachers, returning from a week in Barcelona. Spanish TVE reported from their home town, Haltern.
LATEST MAJOR TROPICAL STORMS & HEAVY WEATHERS
20150331: Storm Niklas kills at least three, stops trains- 20150331: ) Category 5 Super Typhoon Maysak Pounding Micronesia
TROPICAL STORMS/ DECEMBER 2014
note: from September 2014 on, this report will contain / collect only data about hurricanes with windspeeds above 50 MPH. For latest developing tropical storms, visit wunderground., com! datasets with a green background are hurricanes those are already over!
At least 10 people have been killed by catastrophic floods in northern regions of Chile after thunderstorms brought the equivalent of 7 years of rain in just 12 hours on March 26. Search and rescue operations are still in progress and authorities fear the number of casualties will rise. Flooding has affected the regions of Atacama, Antofagasta and Coquimbo, all located in the Atacama Desert, one of the driest regions of the world....read more...
Mit Spitzenböen von rund 150 Kilometern pro Stunde fegt Orkan "Niklas" über Deutschland. Es gab drei Todesopfer. In Berlin rief die Feuerwehr den Ausnahmezustand aus. Alle Infos im Liveticker....read more...
Hurricane “Niklas” has reportedly claimed three victims, while trains have been cancelled across Germany as the storm rages. Rail in north and east delayed by storms (30 Mar 15) Half-naked man brings Berlin S-bahn to halt (17 Mar 15) Munich's new tram bell upsets traditionalists (02 Mar 15) According to Saxony-Anhalt police, a man near Magdeburg in eastern Germany was killed by a concrete wall blown over by the stormy winds. The man attempted to stop the wall from rocking in the storm, but a violent gust of wind pushed the wall over and crushed him, police said. Two road maintenance workers were also killed when a tree fell onto their car in the western state of Rhineland-Palatinate between Dies und Hübingen, near Montabaur. Police confirmed to The Local that deaths were a result of storm Niklas. The police said they would release more specific details later. ..read more...
Extremely dangerous Category 5 Super Typhoon Maysak is pounding the islands of Yap State in Micronesia's Caroline Islands. At 8 am EDT Tuesday the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) put Maysak's top sustained winds at 160 mph, making it one of only three Category 5 storms ever observed in the Northwestern Pacific prior to April. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) put Maysak's central pressure at 905 mb, the lowest pressure they have estimated for any Northwestern Pacific typhoon occurring so early in the year (previous record: 930 mb for Typhoon Mitag of March 2002, Typhoon Alice of January 1979, and Typhoon Harriet of January 1959.) According to the NWS in Guam, the eye of Maysak has already passed very close to several of the smaller islands of Micronesia--Ulithi and Fais--bringing hurricane-force winds. The 00 UTC Tuesday runs of the GFS and European models predict that the center of Maysak will pass about 100 miles northeast of Yap in the Caroline Islands (population 11,000) near 2 pm EDT Tuesday, which is near dawn local time on Wednesday. Since hurricane-force winds extend out about 45 miles from the center, Yap will likely only receive tropical storm-force winds. However, the significant wave heights in Maysak were estimated at 40 feet, and Yap will receive substantial coastal damage and flooding from the storm. Maysak has moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots and a large area of ocean with sea surface temperatures of 28 - 29°C (83 - 84°F) to work with through Wednesday, and will be capable of maintaining Category 5 strength until Thursday.
Residents of the South Pacific island nation of Vanuatu are bracing for the impact of Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Pam, one of the strongest tropical cyclones ever recorded in the waters east of Australia. Pam has rapidly intensified over the past two days and reached top sustained winds of 160 mph as of 2 pm EDT Thursday, making it one of only ten Category 5 storms ever recorded in the basin since satellite records began in 1970. The official tropical cyclone warning center for the area, the Fiji Meteorological Service, estimated that Pam had a central pressure of 918 mb at 2 pm EDT Thursday.
Impacts of Pam
Pam is likely to be one of the most destructive natural disasters in Vanuatu's history. The storm will likely pass over or very close to the three small, southernmost islands of Vanuatu on Friday, and these islands will suffer extreme devastation if a direct hit occurs. These islands are Erromango (population 2,000), Tanna (pop 29,000) and Aneiytum (pop 900). The 12Z Thursday run of the usually-reliable European model shows a direct hit occurring on the more northerly island of Efate, the most populated island in Vanuatu (66,000), where the capital city of Port Vila is located. Even if the islands miss a direct hit by Category 4 - 5 eyewall winds, hurricane-force winds will extend out 40 miles from the center, and will likely cause heavy damage to all of these islands. Regardless of Pam's track, its waves will cause major coastal damage; the significant wave height of the storm was 44 feet at 2pm EDT Thursday. Storm surge is also a concern, as well as extreme flash flooding from Pam's torrential rains. After passing Vanuatu, Pam is likely to weaken significantly, but the storm may still be capable of bringing tropical storm-force winds to New Zealand on Sunday. High surf causing erosion and coastal damage will be the main threat from Pam to New Zealand, though.
Pam has already caused significant flooding on the low-lying island of Tuvalu, located over 700 miles northeast of the storm, as documented by storm surge expert Hal Needham in his blog. Since Tuvalu is located in an area with very deep water offshore, this flooding was likely due to large waves crashing onshore and running up inland, rather than an actual storm surge from winds piling up water over a shallow coastal shelf....read more...
<<Figure 1. The eye of Cyclone Pam as seen by the VIIRS instrument on the Suomi satellite at 10:11pm EDT March 11, 2015. At the time, Pam was a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Image credit:@NOAASatellites.
One of the Pacific Ocean’s most powerful storms ever has ripped through Vanuatu. Buildings have been damaged, trees uprooted and roads cut off. Eight people are reported dead, but it is feared that number will rise substantially as the scale of devastation is established across the nation’s 83 islands.
Cyclone Pam, which hit on Friday night, packed winds of up to 340 kilometres per hour. It has left Vanuatu cut off and facing a looming threat of hunger. The United Nations was preparing a major relief operation and Australia said it was ready to offer its neighbour whatever help it can. Aid agencies said it is a disaster that needs an international response.
Massive flash floods caused by torrential rains hit Angolan city of Lobito destroying dozens of homes and city structures and causing the death of at least 62 people, according to initial reports from local authorities. The Angop state-run news agency reported that the flood water had reached three meters (9.8 feet) in some areas of the city since the rain started Wednesday, March 11, 2015. The Bairro Novo neighborhood of Lobito (population 800 000), located on the Atlantic coast some 500 km (300 miles) south of the capital Luanda, was worst affected, the agency added. The search for victims continues as many more people are believed to be still missing....read more...
LATEST MAJOR VOLCANO ACTIVITIES - including official reports (global volcanism program/ Smithsonian/ USGS)
LATEST (KNOWN) TSUNAMI EVENTS:
RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:
note: the Tsunami report on this site here is for documentary but rather not up to date. For latest informations, check out: NOAA/ PTWC TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS
UPDATED at 7:00 p.m. with airport re-opening time.
Juan Santamaría International Airport will remain closed until at least 8:00 a.m. Friday, March 13, according to airport administration. Airport spokeswoman Silvia Chávez said that the Friday re-opening was conditional on overnight activity at Turrialba Volcano.
UPDATED at 5 p.m. with information on affected flights.
Falling ash from Costa Rica’s Turrialba Volcano closed the country’s Juan Santamaría International Airport on Thursday afternoon at approximately 4:00 p.m., according to airport management.
As of 5:00 p.m., there were 10 affected flights.
Seven flights are grounded: 1 Iberia flight, 2 Avianca flights, 1 Copa flights, 1 Air Canada flight, and 2 cargo flights.
Three flights are in the air and unable to land: 2 Copa flights and 1 FedEx cargo flight.
A list of the airport’s upcoming flight departures and their status can be found on itswebsite.
The Public Security Ministry’s Air Surveillance Service says ash poses a risk to planes because of obscured visibility and because it can interfere with the plane’s jets or propellers.
Turrialba Volcano erupted three times Thursday morning and early afternoon, sending volcanic ash more than a kilometer into the air. Winds carried the ash 67 kilometers from the crater to the capital, where it dusted cars and homes. The ash restricted visibility and irritated eyes in San José.
The main international airport is closed until Friday morning, ash blankets San José, and Costa Ricans are wondering if Volcán Turrialba has more in store for us in the near future. In the meantime, here’s a collection of photos, videos, tweets and Facebook posts of Thursday’s eruptions.
This is the jaw-dropping moment a lightning storm erupted in an ash cloud as a notorious volcano spewed hot lava towards villages below. Photographer Martin Rietze’s stunning photos of the volatile Sinabung volcano in Indonesia are a fascinating display of the raw beauty and frightening power of planet Earth. As the ash cloud billows into the night sky a barrage of lightning bolts crackle from deep within it – creating a mesmerising scene that looks like the entrance to the underworld.
It is believed that the collision of fine ash grains in the air creates huge amounts of static electricity, resulting in a spectacular electrical storm. While it is an amazing display the 8,000ft volcano, in North Sumatra, has proven to be deadly since it erupted in 2010 after being dormant for an estimated 400 years. On this occasion some small villages were wiped out by the lava flow and many acres of farmland were buried by ash, the photographer said. Known as a pyroclastic flow, the deadly mix of burning hot ash, gas and lava can quickly blanket large areas, exterminating anything and everything in its path. ..click here to read more( and see mor amazing pictures of this eruption ...
NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES
note: this report does NOT necessarely represent all currently global active volcanoes!
This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >
20141216: please note: NASA is currently reorganising their website contents: so all archived images , embedded contents and links posted on external websites such as mine will not work until NASA`s new website will be completed. If once completed- so NASA- all previous links will work again, resp lead/ forward automatically to the new pages. So long as this new website is under construction, NASA has "parked" all previous contents under the prefix "legacy-" So all previous linkred NASA contents can be found just by adding the word " legacy-" prior to the URL resp "www" : example: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/archive/current_month.html has to be changed into: http://legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/archive/current_month.html
1. LATEST AND CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL ALERTS
20150315: AR 12297 - still near the central meridian- was the source of an impressive LDE M 8 class flare associated to a major and fully halo CME after 1:27 UTC, which was likely also the source of a fast SEP. A TYPE II/IV radio e mission was registered by NOAA at 1:27 UTC. First protons reached the geomagnetic field between 2 and 3 UTC, when the integral protons flux began to rise and has reached a maximum yet of 4 pfu. ( at time of this update)
20150311: AR 12297 continued with strong flaring and produced an X 2.1 class flare on March peaking at 16:11. (Image 8 below ). Integral proton flux on GOES began slightly to rise after 22 UTC and must be further observed. The proton increase might also be related to a major filament eruption close to AR 12297, that began after 23 UTC on March 11 (image 9) SeeVideo by solar watcher>:
20150309- 10:AR 12297 continued with strong flares while rotating through the Earth directed side of the Sun. The strongest of three M flares on 20150310 soon after midnight reached M6 and produced another - but rather minor CME after 1:00 UTC: On SoHO images, that the this CME was partial halo . Minor earth directed parts will arrive around 20150312.
20150308:The active region on the eastern limb-meanwhile numbered as AR 12297- is still on LDE activity and produced as double major M 9 flare with an associated CME on March 08 after 22 UTC . The CME was partial halo- what means: it has Earth- directed parts, those might arrive on March 11 >
20150306: A new and very active region appeared on the eastern solar limb and produced a stronger CME and continued with an LDE for hours after that. The region is noit numbered yet, but was there alrready during the past rotation period ( see images below)
^NASA D-RAP/ global heat absorption during proton storm ( SEP: begin: after 2 UTC) on 20150315
1. LATEST AND CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL ALERTS
20150311: AR 12297 continued with strong flaring and produced an X 2.1 class flare on March peaking at 16:11. (Image 8 below ). Integral proton flux on GOES began slightly to rise after 22 UTC and must be further observed. The proton increase might also be related to a major filament eruption close to AR 12297, that began after 23 UTC on March 11 (image 9) SeeVideo by solar watcher>:
20150309- 10:AR 12297 continued with strong flares while rotating through the Earth directed side of the Sun. The strongest of three M flares on 20150310 soon after midnight reached M6 and produced another - but rather minor CME after 1:00 UTC: On SoHO images, that the this CME was partial halo . Minor earth directed parts will arrive around 20150312.
20150308:The active region on the eastern limb-meanwhile numbered as AR 12297- is still on LDE activity and produced as double major M 9 flare with an associated CME on March 08 after 22 UTC . The CME was partial halo- what means: it has Earth- directed parts, those might arrive on March 11 >
20150306: A new and very active region appeared on the eastern solar limb and produced a stronger CME and continued with an LDE for hours after that. The region is noit numbered yet, but was there alrready during the past rotation period ( see images below)
1. LATEST AND CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL ALERTS
20150309- 10:AR 12297 continued with strong flares while rotating through the Earth directed side of the Sun. The strongest of three M flares on 20150310 soon after midnight reached M6 and produced another - but rather minor CME after 1:00 UTC: On SoHO images, that the this CME was partial halo . Minor earth directed parts will arrive around 20150312.
20150308:The active region on the eastern limb-meanwhile numbered as AR 12297- is still on LDE activity and produced as double major M 9 flare with an associated CME on March 08 after 22 UTC . The CME was partial halo- what means: it has Earth- directed parts, those might arrive on March 11 >
20150306: A new and very active region appeared on the eastern solar limb and produced a stronger CME and continued with an LDE for hours after that. The region is noit numbered yet, but was there alrready during the past rotation period ( see images below)
1. LATEST AND CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL ALERTS
20150308:The active region on the easternlimb-meanwhile numbered as AR 12297- is still on LDE activity and produced as double major M 9 flare with an associated CME on March 08 after 22 UTC . The CME
20150306: A new and very active region appeared on the eastern solar limb and produced a stronger CME and continued with an LDE for hours after that. The region is noit numbered yet, but was there alrready during the past rotation period ( see images below)
20150304: Y 10 MeV Electrons increased above 1.000 pfu following recent minor proton events. Protons are the reference value for the total electrons charge . But with changing proton values also the electron flux on the measurment devices is kind of altered so the total load cannot really be estimated. after no stronger SEPs have occured since longer time a final discharge with the effects as researched and described in that report becomes more an more probable and would be the frist after one year with continuing and accumlating SEPs activities
20150303: The nested region as observed during the past year and described in the recent reports appeared end of February behind the eastern limb but is currently invisible) .NOAA therefore numbered it just as an spotted S 4254. It was active once with a strong prominence one week ago but seems currently to be inactive and might just have temporarely faded, resp sank deeper into the solar gas hull. This already was the case during 1 rotation period in the second half of 2014 . After it the AR reapperaed in an even larger size and produced X flares. Next rotation period will tell more.. While this region is currently inactive, AR 12290 was quite active during the past days with numerous M flares and CMEs those seem not to have larger earth directed parts.
20150224: The permanent "nested" configuration of two active regions and a coronal hole which is on the same solar coordinates since at least one year and which is currently the only but also a constant active region on the solar disc became again visible behind the eastern solar limb and seems to be still very active ( see more below)
20150209: Electron is still elevated after the latest minor SEP on 20150128
SOLAR ACCELERATED AND EMMITTED PROTONS IMMIGRATE THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD AND ITS POLAR ORBIT
THE PROTONS CREATE AN ADDITIONAL GRAVITY PULL> THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ATTRACKTS AN EQUIVALENT OF ENERGETIC ELECTRONS FROM THE SOLAR MAGNETIC FIELTO NEUTRALISE THIS + CHARGE
AFTER THE PROTONS NOW ALSO ELECTRONS HAVE LOST THEIR CINETIC ENERGY THROUGH HEAT FRICTION. THE ACCUMULATION COLLAPSES THE EARTH MANTLE - PREVIOUSLY HEATED UP BY THE PROTON IMPACT and ELECTRON EFFECTS.- COOLS DOWN AND CONTRACTS AGAIN.
HEAT EFFECTS ON EARTH CORE AND MANTLE: VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES / MAINLY ON HOT SPOTS( SOUTH POLAR TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (-)
TORNADOES, THUNDERSTORMS, VOLCANIC SURFACE ACTIVITIES TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (m. northern Hemisphere)
> MAJOR AND potential CATASTROPHIC SUBDUCTION QUAKES with magnitudes (> M 8 or even > M 9 ) high enough to create a substantial and widespread Tsunami, if quakes occure subseas.
!if the integral electron flux / plot below) should SUDDENLY SHARPLY DROP, STRONGER MAJOR SUBDUCTION EARTHQUAKES become most probable! (globally!) You won`t believe that? Then test it!
Rising integral proton (= proton stotrm) = magmatic and hot spot intrusion with minor earthquakes
SOLAR / TERRESTRIAL (NEAR TO) REAL TIME DATA AND PLOTS:
1.2.3. SOLAR SEPs/ SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA/ weekly report:
EARLY WARNING! 20150208: the integral electron flux, that shortly rose again after another- but this time minor slow and uneffective SEP had occured in the only active nested region 12286, began significantly to drop on February 07: This now can mark for the first time since begin of 2014 , that all SEP effects those had ccumulated during this period within the geomagneti field might dcerease now and come to a preliminary end : Due to all collected data during previous SEPs, STRONG AND HEAVY DISASTROUS SUBDUCTION QUAKES MIGHT FOLLOW VERY QUICKLY when the remaining electron charge( accumulation in the geomagnetic field is discharching ( as it seems to be the case since 20150207 ) and tectonic plates and the mantle magma heated up by these SEPs will begin swiftly to cool down part to harden and to CONTRACT : NOTE: this forecast is based on data and analysis of previous socalled solar SEP (proton) events and is nevertheless ( as all foreecasts) WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY OR GUARANTEE! MAJOR SUBDUCTION QUAKES THOSE ARE LIKELY MOGHT OCCURE DURING THE NEXT DAYS HAVE MOST LIKELY TO BE EXPECTED IN THE REGION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND MAINLY AROUND THE 180° LATITUDES MOST LIKELY AFFECTING THE AMERICAN PACIFIC COAST - Alaska down to California and beyond . with possible effects also to Japan and the east pacific subduction zones ( Tonga, Fiji, Vanuatu, Hawaii and NZL) ALL SEAQUAKES EXCEEDING MAGNITUDES oF M 8.0 are capable to trigger a widespread TSUNAMI in these regions!
20150315: AR 12297 - still near the central meridian- was the source of an impressive LDE M 8 class flare associated to a major and Fully halo CME after 1:27 UTC, which was likelyalso the source of a fast SEP. A TYPE II/IV radio e mission was registered by NOAA at 1:27 UTC. First Protons reached the geomagnetic field between 2 and 3 UTC, when the integral protons flux began to rise reaching a maximum yet ( at time of this update) of 4 pfu.
PREVIOUS ACTIVITIES: ( read more in register panel below)
20150311: AR 12297 continued with strong flaring and produced an X 2.1 class flare on March peaking at 16:11. (Image 8 below ). Integral proton flux on GOES began slightly to rise after 22 UTC and must be further observed. The proton increase might also be related to a major filament eruption close to AR 12297, that began after 23 UTC on March 11 (image 9)
20150309- 10:AR 12297 continued with strong flares while rotating through the Earth directed side of the Sun. The strongest of three M flares on 20150310 soon after midnight (image 3) reached M6 and produced another - but rather minor CME after 1:00 UTC: On SoHO images, that the this CME was partial halo . Minor earth directed parts will arrive around 20150312.
1.3 SOLAR/ TERRESTRIAL RELATIONS
20150329: Following the last major SEP on March 15, the > 2.0 Me V integral electron flux increased - a s usually- this time after March 18 to values temporaraley exceeding 10.000 pfu. On 20150324 another but very weak SEP was noticed by GOES with values not higher than 0.5 pfu. This likely caused the disturbance with in integral electrons noticed the days after (img.) On March 29 then the electron flux dropped back tom levels below 1.000 pfu.
after such a long time more 3 years, during these- caused by an continuing production of new SEP events on the Sun- the electron flux never really dropped back to normal levels ( between 110 and 100 pfu) its becomes difficult top judge by the graph when thses electron charges finally or temporarely will do so and discahrge. Several earthquakes in the eastern Pacific region after March 29 ff now suggested, that there is a high chance that the tectonics heated up by these particle events now are going to cool down anyway. and strong subduction quakes ( following the magma intrusions we have seen associated to the SEP for several years now) especially in these region would become a major and large scaled risik
A serial of larger quakes was also 2004 and 2011 the only indicator for the disastrous earthquakes that would occure just days later, creating even tsunamis those costed the lives of thousands. This is WHy I issue NOW a preliminary major HIGH ALERT WARNING for the coming days ( especially for the region of the eastern pacific including the all American Pacific coast) This alert for a possible > M 9 quake there will be modified or cancceled , if the electron flux should rise again the coming days what would indicate , that there is still an electron disturbance by active protons ( what would again mean that the time of SEP PHASE III has not come yet delay AGAIN that time for the SEP Phase III ( final electron discharge) for an unknown time.
click here for previous weekly reports (MARCH 2015)
20150315: AR 12297 , still near the central nmeridian produced an impressive LDE after midnight, which was likely the source of a fast SEP. A TYPE II/IV radio e mission was registered by NOAA at 1:27 UTC. First Protons reached the geomagnetic field between 2 and 3 UTC, when the integral protons flux began to rise reaching a maximum yet ( at time of this update) of 4 pfu.
20150311: AR 12297 continued with strong flaring and produced an X 2.1 class flare on March peaking at 16:11. (Image 8 below ). Integral proton flux on GOES began slightly to rise after 22 UTC and must be further observed. The proton increase might also be related to a major filament eruption close to AR 12297, that began after 23 UTC on March 11 (image 9)
20150309- 10:AR 12297 continued with strong flares while rotating through the Earth directed side of the Sun. The strongest of three M flares on 20150310 soon after midnight (image 3) reached M6 and produced another - but rather minor CME after 1:00 UTC: On SoHO images, that the this CME was partial halo . Minor earth directed parts will arrive around 20150312.
20150308:The active region on the eastern limb-meanwhile numbered as AR 12297- is still on LDE activity and produced as double major M 9 flare with an associated CME on March 08 after 22 UTC . (image 9, 10 ) The CME has aeart directed parts those might arrive on March 11
20150306: 20150306: A new and very active region appeared on the easternsolar limb and produced a stronger CME (image 7 below) and continued with an LDE for hours after that( img 8 below) . The region is not numbered yet, but was there alrready during the past rotation period ( see images 5 and 6 below)
20150304: Y 10 MeV Electrons increased above 1.000 pfu following recent minor proton events. Protons are the reference value for the total electrons charge . But with changing proton values also the electron flux on the measurment devices is kind of altered so the total load cannot really be estimated. after no stronger SEPs have occured since longer time a final discharge with the effects as researched and described in that report becomes more an more probable and would be the frist after one year with continuing and accumlating SEPs activities 20150303: The nested region as observed during the past year and described in the recent reports appeared end of February behind the eastern limb but is currently invisible) .NOAA therefore numbered it just as an spotted S 4254. It was active once with a strong prominence one week ago but seems currently to be inactive and might just have temporarely faded, resp sank deeper into the solar gas hull. This already was the case during 1 rotation period in the second half of 2014 . After it the AR reapperaed in an even larger size and produced X flares. Next rotation period will tell more.. While this region is currently inactive, AR 12290 was quite active during the past days with numerous M flares and CMEs those seem not to have larger earth directed parts.
20150302: solar X ray activity increased over the past days:(image 1 below) On March 01 there were several filament eruptions on different areas of the visible disc and the large RECURRENT CH 657 ( the only currently visible part of the large persistent configuration as described below) produces high speed solar winds . Both has crated a MINOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM.
(image 2, 3) The nested region as described below has not appeared yet and made have temporary faded below coronal gases as it already did several times in 2014. The region seems empty . Just the coronal hole 657 is still there where it was since this persistent configuration had envolved. AR 12290, which is already going to rotate out on the western limb is currently active and produced- one after another- two minor M flares on 20150202, those have no earth directed parts (image 4)
20150228: Another SEP must have begun late on February 26: Integral proton flux began to rise after 24 UTC on 20150226 and is currently ( at time of this update near to 1.0 pfu)( image 1: GOES Proton plot). This time I could not detect the typical side effect that SEPs accelerate gases upwards from the solar surface and corona on SoHO imagery, Thus this SEP was maybe a backside event. what I can`t proof as well, since both STEREO satellites are still ot of service.
If it was a front side event, ( the SEPs themselves are mostly invisible on light based telescopes anyway ) protons this time would have a rather slow acceleration what makes them rather ineffective in terms that they would heat up the earth mantle over their impact on earth. Nevertheless, the protons that immigrate the Earth,will- as ever - attrackt and accumulate an equivalent number of electrons from the solar magnetic field , those are energetic enough to produce these typical heat / temperature anomalies around an in the Northern pole those cause the weather tubulences wer are facing each time after an SEP on the Northern Hemisphere. THis - as expectable- continuing electron accumulation also supports further volcanic activities.
SDO shows a minor flare in AR and a filament eruption in the nested configuration which has not yet fully rotated in .( These events cannot be seen on a single standby picture and must be watched in a timeline video on SDOs website) and occurerd later , So the cannot be related to that SEP event
(special& continued report:) THE LARGE AND MYSTERIOUS SOLAR SURFACE REGION THAT HAS A CONFIGURATION THAT REMAINED WIDELY UNCHANGED SINCE at least ONE YEAR!
I yet just traced this large region covering at least a quarter of the solar disc back to May 2011. ( see previous archive reports) This review has shown , that the entire configuration remained almost unchanged since then. On 20141215, the main and mostly only active region on the entire disc, active region 12235 produced an extreme fast filament eruption , AR 12235 is a nested stationary sun spot cluster and forms with another active region and a large coronal hole a very active configuration that persists since at least one year( I have just not traced it further back yet) AR 12235 was AR12209 active during the last rotation period and was AR 12192 two rotation periods earlier, when it produced 4 strong X class flares in a row .The configuration covers more than a quarter of the solar disc and has a kind of gravity center with a coronal hole stretching towards the Northern pole an has also a low spotted area which is also but less active than AR 12235. which is situated 15- 30 ° further in the east . (> images 5 and 6 . During all that time this nested AR was and is only AR on the visible that produced flares and CMEs. Currently the entire configuration seems to be active and produces a type of flaring resp shoots out hot gazes all over the area it covers.. The most active AR in it- AR 12235 became smaller yet during previous periods and then began to grown again., Currently it appears rather small ) . What is it and what does this big are doe next ? Nobody knows...Allthough humans observe the Sun meanwhile day and night, much about our central star is still more a mystery and an still good for some surprises.
( image 4 >) satellite transmissions were repeatedly knocked out between 20141213 and 14 and there was a short rise in integral Proton flux on 20141213/ 6 UTC when values rose to 2,5 pfu until 20141216/ 00 , when vaklues were back again at +/- 0.1 pfu. as usual . But satellite imagery that needs light to make any image cannot cover those proton events and where these SEPs actually occure. However,: STEREO with its infra red usually can at least cover secondary events ( the protons do accelerate and heat up gazes on the solar surface those emit then ) such are gazes hgeated up after the proton explosion by highest accelerated protons. Butr also Stereo has a transmission blackout on December 13 and 14. theavailable images show an intensive flaring activity on the front side . STEREO also observed a strong type of filament eruption heading from the North Polar solar region ( image 4 >)
We might either get a new SEP soon ( an event that comes more or less out of nowhere) or the effects of the previous SEPs will come to an end: When the current electron accumulation ( which is still exceeding temporarely 1.000 pfu.) will drop, as now further SEP has occured during the past 6 weeks , the earth mantle heated up by these SEPs will cool down and STRONG SUBDUCTION quakes will accompony that process.however: magma intrusion creates something like holes ( aou also can call that underpresssure or defizits) within the earth mantle , So the intensive magma intrusion we can observe onm a global scalesince some years will be logically be always accomponied/ followed by subduction quakes, by those new material is pulled- "dives down" into the earth mantle is melted there and will equalize that defizit.( more see right column)>
( see " NASA earth observatory / land surface temperature anomalies above). The temperature anomalies on the Northern hemisphere became more intensive in February 2015 , with Hudson Bayas in the past years still representing the coldest area and with temperatures in Sibiria in Russia exceeeding those in central and Southern Europe. Part of this anomalies are created by solar SEPs . But scientists also noted an increased shifting of the magnetic poles. Noting the last available report it seems however unlikely, that the Northern magnetic pole shifts towards Siberia as this official report claimed. Its rather likely or seems so, that it has already mainly shifted into Hudson |Bay * where we also have the relatively coldest region on the Northern hemisphere since years. The phenomenon of megnetic field shifting is known since the 60th and was since then observed by a group of american researchers,whonfirst came to the conclusion that the Northern magnetic field would move with expontial speeed/means first just some centimeters per year , than meters ...( but the official scientist still said, that those fluctuations would be quite normal
DETAILED REPORT OF LATEST MAJOR SOLAR SUN SPOT ACTIVITIES ( updated only during major events, such as major flares CMEs or SEPs)
AUG 2014: DAILY SOLAR REVIEWS ARE BEING REDUCED TO SIGNIFICANT SOLAR ACTIVITY DEVELOPMENTS !
means: you find only full reports, that cover all related data, if stronger activities occure. Some monthly archives might therefor contain only one daily review,. others might contain more. depending on the evolution of solar sun spot activity after the peak was reached on 2013
2015
MONTH
JANUARY
DAY:
none yet xx
< date refers to available event data and summaries
ACE ( Advanced Composition Explorer) is on and L 1 orbit at the edge between solar and geomagnetic field and measures the intensity and composition of interplanetary solar winds
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M1 event observed at 06/1709Z from Region 2157 (S14E44). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Sep, 08 Sep, 09 Sep).
ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS INVOLVED IN MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITIES, CMEs OR SEPS ( other active regions are not posted)
ACE ( Advanced Composition Explorer) is on and L 1 orbit at the edge between solar and geomagnetic field and measures the intensity and composition of interplanetary solar winds
USAF report on geophysical activity for previous day:>>
* graph only during significant events
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 430 km/s at 06/2049Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 06/1531Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 06/0512Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9 pfu at 06/0740Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 286 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (07 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (08 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (09 Sep). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (07 Sep), are likely to cross threshold on day two (08 Sep) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (09 Sep).
20140430: protons appproached again from polar Earth orbit-
meaning of background colors>
yellow= this particles are currently active/ dominant
red= strong event
} orange background = ACTIVE electrons/ but their effectivity is PENDING OR INTERFERED BY PROTONS/ or> PROTONS are still too fast to envolve significant effects
CURRENT SEP/ PROTON EFFECTS
May 23- 2014: Protons- particulary from the high speed SEP on APR 18. partic. also from minor recent solar eruptions (AR 12071) are still active in the geomagnetic field with an increase of magmatic activities at the same time. At 22 UTC a sudden increase of electron density likely marked the end of the effectivity these protons had in the geomagneticmfield over the last days and weeks
ELECTRON EFFECTS>
20140610: integral electrons flux signficantly began to rise and might reach tresholds soon in the coming days. The increase followed a strong depression of the electron flux by former SEP and solar protons effects and indicate that these protons effects those lasted for more than 1 month are over now. hot spot activities have again dcreased yet in the last weeks The electron accumulation now will bring again high temperatures and droughts to the Northern hemisphere, as welll as sudden tornadoes, thunderstorms . I am not sure, how the high tension of the integral electron fluxmight induce cururents into ships on high seas power grids and other electric devices but several servers ship incidents those occured during electron accumulations in the greomag field suggest that ea. are capable for.
The current state of particles within the geomag. field is after quite a dozen part. accumulating SEPs since autum 2013 is rather confusing and data plots dont`t allow exact results.
might persist for several weeks now after those these electrons will finally discharge. This last SEP phase expected in about 3 weeks sometime end of June 2014 ( if no further solar SEPs occures) with cooling down of and contraction effects on the affected tectonic plates those likely finally will trigger strong and CATASTROPHIC earthquakes with magnitudes above M 9!!
20140607: The integral electron flux dropped again into negative values and continued so since JUne 03. The source of the disturbance are likely protons still active either from previous events or from recent solar protons emissions into interplanetary space
20140523/ 22 UTC There was a sudden increase of the integral electron flux after 22 UTC. There was no similar related event found on ACE data , thus the increase seems not to be related to a solar event, but rather marks the end of the effectivity , solar protons had on the geomagnetic field during the last days and weeks
20140523: During the second half of May 2014 , electrons were first rising as expected following the strong high speed SEP on April 18 ( with protons almost at the speed of light) . After May 17, the electron energy was again neutralized by those still active and after May 23 also by newly incoming protons ( activities in AR 12071) and fell into minus values, what does not mean, that these electrons would lose their cinetic energy by that . They rather get compressed and electrically neutralised by protons circulating with the field lines , what at least temporarely hampers their ability to cause thunderstorms and strong tornadoes or induced currents.
Temperature anomalies around the Northern pole continue since end of 2013 and brought again climatical extremes to the medium latitudes.
orange background >means: The electron effects of the last SEO were overlapsed by new SEP eventand currently deactivated or: HIGH SPEED SEP. Protons are still to fastto envolve significant effects
SEP EVENT HISTORY :
20140418/
13:19 UTC
complex nested solar region AR 12036 (35- 37 produced and M 7,.8 LDE flare peaking with a CME at 13:19 UTC. The event was associated with a medium strong SEP. First Protons arrived soon after 13 uTC- thus were accelerated near to the speed of light,due to the fact , that the eruption took place near the central solar meridian and the proton speed is highest radially to the eruption center. means, that some proton effects such as hot spot activities will delay resp takle place slowly
20140413- 16
The integral Electron flux began to increase after strongly been compressed by active protons. (20140415) Integral electron flux is expected to exceed treshold of 1.000 pfu on 20140416
20140405
after 12 UTC
Proton flux slightly increased to max 1.0 pfu after solar event
20140325
08 UTC
Integral,proton flux rose after CME event on 20140324 to values up to 1 pfu.
20140317
Integral proton flux has decreased to normal values after March 07. But the high amount of protons those impacted during this long lasting proton storm ist still effective with heat in the earth body and mantle .Hot spot activities are still present on the Canary islands. The proton influence also still knocks down the integral electron flux to zero and even into negative values. There is a slight recovery of the electron since March 17 . Values will further increase and exceed 100 pfu at any time in about 1 or two weeks ( SEP phase II) , if no new SEP occures.
20140228
Integral Proton flux increased further on February 28 and reached 100 pfu early in the morning. I have not reviewed the solar events yet. but protons storms/ eruptions are what I call " the invisible eruption"
* latent potential for earthquakes with magnitudes higher than M 9.0! Some major catastrophic earthquake might likely happen, when effects of accumulated SEPs diminuish /.> 10 MeV electron accumulation will be neutralised, what is indicated , when electron energy suddenly will sharply drop at its end
EFFECTING AS >
INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW
** estimated
NOTES: ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 with green brackgound is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable
(In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!
20140620: remark: Currently I am examining whether also electron accumulations effect on hot spot or surface volcanism
for longer time I have not updated myself on the latest of NASA curiosity rover Mars mission. Now I found some articles with some indeed strange images Curiosity sent to Earth
3. The "crocodile" This nosy crocodile once fully turned into stone , when it lurked up to the sky , when obvioulsy something strange happened, we might call " Medusa effect"
my favourite ones: parts of destroyed buildings? Stone figures similar to the ones found on Eastern islands:
A group of youtube people are just waiting for the next super high resolution image the rover sends home, most people as obviously also the NASA staff does oftenly not take much notice of. Curiosity`s images have such a high resolution that you can search and magnify on them each detail and its just incredible what people find on these images:
Just watch the video( right side): I just can`t prove whether the "vehicle" oin this photo might be a a fake!>
Beside the jokes made upon these discoveries like the video with " the green frog" that survived on Mars after its water channels had dried out, some of these dicoveries just knocked me out of my shoes. Best source for those images on youtube is the channel what`s up in the sky.
However: Its meanwhile in all news and obviously noone could approve yet , that those images would have been faked with an photo editing software!
July 2014: note: as the solar sun spot activity is decreasing now, major events will get less at least until May June 2014 .Therefor, this project is also limited now to basic updates. In July 2014 I decided to update this page only after significant event and changes and to turn this page into an monthly page that will cover significant events and can be archived then in that form.
January 25- 2014:
2013, after 2 years after the second major> M 9 Earthquake had taken place within on decade and after two years of statistic evaluation and comparation of solar and terestrial data, it became clear , that socalled SEPS would be the solar feature I was looking , being that solar feature, that indeed can even have strongest related and signiciant geophysical effects.
Now in early 2014, the peak off the sun spots cycle seems to be over and related activity visibly have decreased . I dont expect many stronger and significant solar events for the next half year.
Recently I decided, to close the ongoing solar and terrestrial documentary at this point in this form , as it was made until now., whith complete data and event evaluationas as its required for any scientific work . This I did to get this project to a point, that its results would be available and evaluable for further report and can be also a basic for further scientics research
Nevertheless as observations and evaluations have shown , that esp. the socalled SEPs ,this documentary has focussed on, as being the strongest and most geoeffective known type of solar event) do happen MOST frequently during the solar max, but are als present in the same strength all 11 years in between but just in lower number.
So I will continue to watch over all these solar data and event and try to provide a full report and complete coverage in time if any furthe major event should take place ..
so the solar teerrestrial blog will be continued in another simplified and limited form:
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