According to NASA, this 24th. 11 year sun spot cycle has probably a " twin peak"- the second in 2015. This project therefore will be prolongued.
THE 11 YEAR SUN SPOT CYCLE-
LAST MAXIMUM ACTIVITY IN: 2012/ 13 NEXT: APPR. in 2024
SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG
- activities and major events-
MAY 2015
note: as the solar sun spot activity is decreasing now, less major events are expected at least in the next years. (next cycle minimum expected in 2019)
.Therefor, this project is also limited now to basic updates. In July 2014 I decided to update this page only after significant event and changes and to turn this page into an monthly page that will cover significant events and can be archived then in that form.
research and documentary of the 24th solar cycle with evaluation of certain geoeffective Solar activities (esp. polarised rotating CMEs and SEPs) with coincident terrestrial events such as :
ESSENTIAL SOURCES ON SOLAR ACTIVITIES; Satellite Real Time images and data plots, weblinks etc....click here to expand and close the collapsible panel to read all..
SECTION: LATEST INFORMATION ON SOLAR ACTIVITIES
EVENT RELATED INTERPLANETARY & GEOMAGNETIC DATA PLOTS IMAGES OR VIDEO SOURCES:
(1) SOLAR REAL TIME / CURRENT SATELLITE DATA AND EVENTS
REAL TIME images links for current views on the sun surface- click to enlarge
HOW SOLAR ACTIVITY REPORTS ARE COMMONLY MADE:
SOLAR (NEAR) REAL TIME images as provided by satellites such as SDO, STEREO and SoHO are the first main source on Solar activity data: Various telescopes imaging different levels of frequencies can make sun spots, active regions visoiblöe as well as coronal holes and solar eruptions: solar prominences, flares and associated CMEs ( one exception are proton emissions those remain invisible on any usal imagery. Protons emissions and storms can be measured withe certain instruments instead ( GOES)
Second step is the interplanetary space and solar magnetic field . The Advanced Composition Explorer ( ACE) is "situated" on an geosynchronous orbit outside the geomagnetic field . This satellite has only measurement instruments onboard those deliver various data about the composition of the solar wind. Solar winds blow and circulate regularly through the interplanatary space . Coronal mass ejections and other extraordinary solar events eruptions throw large amounts of solar matter into the interplanetary space . ACE can deliver first data , how strong a possibly earth directed CME might be 1 - 2 days before those CMEs impact and answer the first primary question associated to any CME: Has the main CMEa positive or negative "POLARITY "-( =AN ESPECIAL - PROTON or ELECTRON charge)? means: is the incoming CME NEUTRAL, has it higher accelerated PROTONs or ELECTRONS. THis first question (which one of the two antagonists- the proton or electrons arrives first) determines whether a CME can fully impact into the geomagnetic field or almost NOT AT ALL!
Last not least, in the third step, the GEOSTATIONARY GOES SATELLITES measure what INDEED IMPACTS INTO THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD, basic for all space weather forecasts and forceasts as this one on my page, how strong EARTH DIRECTED CMES might unfluence nature and human civilisation!
-Go to "SOLAR CONTROL CENTER to find out more about these solar observatories or click on the many links on this page to get fisst hand informations!-
SOLAR REAL TIME SAT IMAGES :
note also: SDO, SOHO C3 and STEREO (360° VIEW°) REAL TIME IMAGES ON TOP OF THAT PAGE!
the Earth`s geomagnetic field electrons might defend the Earth even against CMEs from a X 10 flare, what poses the likely only danger , is the attack "from the other side" know as "protons events"
about:
ABOUT: SOLAR PROTON EMISSIONS (proton flares or storms etc. ) ARE RARE EVENTS . But- differently to the mostly of negative charged (electrons) CMEs , PROTON CMEs effect (finally by associated energetic events) until deep into the ground and the Earth`s interior. Proton emissions impact fully into the (negatively charged) geomagnetic field by their positive electric charge and add a positive component to it, what makes the geomag. field TEMPORARELY then also vulnerable especially for following negatively charged CMEs . The protons themselves have paradox effects: first they swallow many electrons (likely reacting with them to neutrons what causes first a "geomagnetic depression" with lower field density (lessactive, free electrons) and paradox ANTIENERGETIC effects (best describable as the "calm prior to the storm" ) .. read more in text box above
Long-range communications using high frequency (HF) radio waves (3 - 30 MHz) depend on reflection of the signals in the ionosphere. Radio waves are typically reflected near the peak of the F2 layer (~300 km altitude), but along the path to the F2 peak and back the radio wave signal suffers attenuation due to absorption by the intervening ionosphere.
Absorption is the process by which the energy of radio waves is converted into heat and electromagnetic (EM) noise through interactions between the radio wave, ionospheric electrons, and the neutral atmosphere (for a more extensive description of the absorption process see Davies, 1990). Most of the absorption occurs in the ionospheric D region (50–90 km altitude) where the product of the electron density and the electron-neutral collision frequency attains a maximum...
The precipitation of protons (as well as other ions) into the earth’s atmosphere during the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events can also create significant enhancements of ionospheric electron densities in the D region. Solar protons with energies between 1 to 200 MeV are primarily responsible for most of ionization of the D region and, consequently, for the ionospheric absorption of HF radio waves. Because of shielding of the earth by its magnetic field SEPs find easy access to the atmosphere only in high latitude regions around the earth’s geomagnetic poles. Such occurrences are therefore termed Polar Cap Absorption (PCA) events....read more...
CLICK HERE FOR INTERNATIONAL MEDIA AND NEWS SOURCES & OTHER EXTERNAL LINKS- DAILY NEWS FROM WHERE IT HAPPENS!..click here to expand and close the collapsible panel to read all..
NEWS CHANNELS:
( collecting of recommendable international news channels is still ongoing...): Note: This list is dedicated to get latest informations directly from regional news channels and sources all over the world . Alien-homepage does not take any responsibility for contents of websites posted on this list nor for their liability
(INTERNAL) find all known volcanoes worldwide on my internal GLOBAL VOLCANO MAPS - including webcams and other features- click here to expand and close the collapsible panel -
The number of people known to have died in India’s heatwave that has swept the country since mid-April has reached around 800. In some areas such as Bhopal in the central state of Madhya Pradesh temperatures have reached nearly 50 degrees Celsius.The authorities have advised people to stay indoors but the reality for many of the poor is that they have to work outside. In the worst-affected southern states of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh hospitals are overflowing with people suffering from sun stroke and dehydration. In Andhra Pradesh, more than 550 have died from the heat. ...read more...
A freak tornado has ripped through a border city in northern Mexico, leaving more than a dozen people dead and many more injured. Flipping over cars and tearing down homes, it left a trail of destruction in Ciudad Acuna. Three children were among those killed, when the surprise whirlwind hit in the early hours of Monday. Across the border in the southern US, tornadoes and record rainfall are causing chaos in Texas and Oklahoma. Twelve people are missing after their holiday home was swept away in Texas. Steve Thurber, San Marcos Mayor, said communities are trying to recover. “It’s a tremendous clean-up operation for them. They’ve lost their homes, they’ve lost their livelihoods and some businesses. So we’re there to get it cleaned up.” Texas’ governor has likened the ferocity of flash flooding to a tsunami. States of disaster have been declared in 24 counties. Forecasters say there is more bad weather to come.so...read more...
Towns in the US Great Plains have been battered by a series of tornadoes, leaving a trail of destruction in their wake. Six people have died as the severe storms ripped through the area on Sunday night. In Arkansas a young couple were killed protecting their 18-month-old baby when their mobile home flipped over.In Texas, the governor declared a state of emergency due to severe storms and flooding. The residents of Van experienced a killer tornado which ripped up trees, power lines and destroyed homes....read more...
A tornado in the north of Germany has caused widespread damage.
A 26-year-old man in Hamburg was killed after debris fell on his car while his pregnant girlfriend was injured. The fire service had to rescue three others from their vehicles and at least 30 people were injured by flying debris. A fallen tree between Hamburg and Luebeck blocked the railway line in both directions and much of the public transport system was brought to a standstill. The epicentre of the devastation was in Buetzow near Rostock in the very north of the country where local media reported winds of around 120 KPH. Many roofs were torn away and a hospital had to be partially evacuated.
One observer said: “I’ve never seen anything like this in my life, it is complete madness. Hundreds of trees have been overturned, completely uprooted, roofs ripped off, what can you say, madness. You don’t experience something like this every day.”
A series of storms including a major twister have hit the southern United States close to Oklahoma City. At least 13 people were reported injured and damage was widespread. A number of animals briefly escaped from a tiger safari park after the enclosure was hit by a tornado, the Grady County Sheriff’s Office said they were all recaptured without further incident. >>
LATEST MAJOR EARTHQUAKES
20160512: NEW serial of strong earthquakes along with a M7.4 quake near Katmandu/ Nepal
20150504: Serial of stronger earthquakes in NEW BRITAIN REGION Eastern Pacific continues/xontinuing serial of earthquakes also in Iran/ Pakistan region
Update 07:18 UTC :
Earthquake felt in Nepal / East of Kathmandu
BREAKING NEWS: We have detected a strong readers increase in India / Nepal / Bangladesh, which normally indicates that an earthquake was felt. Are you one of the people who felt the shaking of this earthquake ? If yes, may we kindly request you to let us know what you have felt and if you have damage or not. Please use the form below or click here @ I HAVE FELT AN EARTHQUAKE
Update 04:39 UTC : An update from Anup Kaphle
Bungamati is a medieval village about 45 minutes outside of Kathmandu. The settlement here is so old that some date it back to 6th century Licchavi dynasty, known as the “golden period” in Nepal’s history, during which dozens of temples and monuments were built.
Today, most of that is gone. What remains is a gentle fighting spirit among its residents who are quietly rebuilding their lives. 15 days since the earthquake, the locals here, aided by a group of students from Kathmandu University, are building shelters from corrugated steel sheets and bamboos, structures that will for now keep them away from incessant rain that has been descending upon Kathmandu for the last three nights.
I asked the man who is leading the rebuilding task here how much of the rebuilding support came from the government.
“What? We have a government?” he said.
Januki Mali, 45, worked as a janitor at a school in the village. Only half of her home stands now, the other half looking as if an angry demon smashed it to the ground with a giant hammer. Today, the students from Kathmandu University built this one-room home, so they at least they have a roof to sleep under while they work on building a more permanent home. Click here for the great Facebook updates from Anup Kaphle
Update 11:42 UTC : The 7.5 magnitude earthquake occurred at Cape Orford in Pomio district, between Wide Bay and Jacquinot Bay.
East New Britian Disaster officer Donald Tokunai said his office was in touch with an agriculture officer in Pomio who reports no major damage, except that people fled to higher ground when they saw the shoreline was unusually very low.
He said after the earthquake nearby areas reported high sea levels along their coastline.
Tokunai said it was normal that earthquakes above 7 magnitude damaged galvanised water tanks and has received reports of two damaged water tanks in the Raluana area.
He also said that it was a normal in Rabaul township when earthquakes above 7 magnitude occurred, the sea level would rise to unusual heights and invade some areas but later subsided.
There were no reports of major damages, expect for landslips along the road, uphill to Vunabakut, Government Hill and another at Blue Lagoon, along the Kokopo/Rabaul road.
More reports from people regarding cracked galvanized water tanks during earthquakes are expected.
Meanwhile, officers are still out, checking out shorelines in Rabaul and Kokopo and other major government facilities in both towns. Read the full PNG Loop article here
note: the Tsunami report on this site here is for documentary but rather not up to date. For latest informations, check out: NOAA/ PTWC TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS
this section also refers to quake activities those typically occure since 2011 in a radius of 100- 200 km around the eifel volcano field, while the region in between stays rather calm. This typically indicates the possibiltiy of hot magma with in the area in between that radius where NO Seimic quakes occure .- Hot magma makes no seismic effects but causes tensions and seismic quakes just on its bondaries where it meets with colder rock formations. There are also regular microquakes along the river Rhine, thos are not respected here.
increased magmatic microquake activity ( since January 2014)
"C"
NOTICES: the swarm quake activity along the San Andreas fault had significantly increased in strength as well as in frequency since January- 04 2014. The swarm quake activity which as related to magma intrusion through the San Andreas fault is continuing since then on ausually low, but constant level . The r eport here will therefore be updated only , when the overall activity significantly increases or if the earthquake swarm activity shifts to other related regions near and along the San Andreas fault.
yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values
*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report
ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT:
LATEST RELATED CME(SEP IMPACT
20140107/20140218-20/ 20140225
01- 04/ 14
EXPLANATIONS>
Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.
Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./
Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest SEP/ CME . Colors from orange to light red mark GRADUAL IMPACTS OF MULTIPLE CMEs CLUSTERS.
HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST>
INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions!
STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS
The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER a LATENCY period due to CME IMPACT on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES within the RED until the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Read "latency remarks"
REGIONS
REGION "A"
REGION "B"(1)
REGION "B"(2)
REGION "C"
REGION"
D"
REGION "E" (1)
REGION "E" (2)
REGION "F"
REGIONS COVERED BY LATEST CME IMPACT>
EASTERN EURASIA-- INDONESIA-WESTERN PACIFIC PHILIPPINES--AUSTRALIA WEST
JAPAN/EAST- AUSTRALIA/ (EAST), PNG. NZL
ALEUT./ KAMCHATKA- EASTERN PACIFIC/ HAWAII
WESTERN USA+ WEST COAST- EASTERN PACIFIC- CANADA-ALASKA
GULF OF MEXICO/ PANAMERICA/CA./ CENTRAL USA/ SOUTH - AMERICA- WEST
, EASTERN ATLANTIC/ (CANARIES/ ICELAND)- N & S- AMERICA/ EAST
CENTRAL (WEST) EUROPE/ AFRICA
INDIA & INDIAN OCEAN- CENTR: EURASIA, AFRICA (EAST), ARABIA ASIA MINOR
A broken pipeline spilled 21,000 gallons of crude oil into the ocean before it was shut off Tuesday, creating a slick stretching about 4 miles along the central California coastline, the U.S. Coast Guard said. Authorities responding to reports of a foul smell near Refugio State Beach around noon found a half-mile slick already formed in the ocean, Santa Barbara County Fire Capt. Dave Zaniboni said. They traced the oil to the onshore pipeline that spilled into a culvert running under the U.S. 101 freeway and into a storm drain that empties into the ocean. The pipeline was shut off about three hours later but by then the slick stretched four miles and 50 yards into the water. The 24-inch pipeline is owned by Plains All American Pipeline, which said it shut down the flow of oil and the culvert carrying the oil to the ocean was blocked. "Plains deeply regrets this release has occurred and is making every effort to limit its environmental impact," the company said in a statement....read more...
(CNN)Oil pipeline company officials said Wednesday that as many as 105,000 gallons of crude oil may have spilled from a ruptured pipeline on the California coast. The 24-inch pipeline ruptured along the Santa Barbara coast, leaking the oil near Refugio State Beach, a protected state park, just before Memorial Day weekend marks the start of the summer tourist season. Houston-based Plains All American Pipeline based the estimate -- what it called a worst-case scenario -- on the typical flow rate of oil and the elevation of the pipeline, said Rick McMichael, the company's director of pipeline operations
The operator of Japan’s tsunami-crippled Fukushima nuclear power plant has reportedly started work on dismantling a cover placed over a reactor building. It wants to remove radioactive debris and spent nuclear fuel as part of decommissioning efforts at the site. A massive earthquake and tsunami four years ago caused meltdowns at Tokyo Electric Power Co Inc’s (TEPCO) Fukushima reactors. THe UN nuclear watchdog has said that the management of radioactive waste and contaminated water at the plant could be improved despite good progress in cleaning up the site. The operator said in February that it had found a pool of highly contaminated water on the roof of a plant building and that it had probably leaked into the sea through a gutter when it rained. Some of the leaks have been dealt with to avoid a repetition of such incidents, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Measures have included filling and covering of gaps, recovery of contaminated soil and treating surfaces to prevent rainwater leakages.
WASHINGTON (WJLA/AP) - Widespread power outages affected the White House, the Capitol, Smithsonian museums, Metrorail stations, the University of Maryland and other sites across Washington and its Maryland suburbs Tuesday afternoon - all because of an explosion at an electrical station, officials said. Read more: http://www.wjla.com/articles/2015/04/breaking-news-major-power-outages-impacting-d-c-and-maryland-112984.html#ixzz3WhcHBQ4U Follow us: @ABC7News on Twitter | WJLATV on Facebook... read more...
A piece of metal breaking loose from a power line 43 miles southeast of the District momentarily knocked out electricity to the White House, State Department and wide swaths of the nation’s capital and Maryland suburbs early Tuesday afternoon.
But many in the city barely noticed.
The outage threw scores of public and private office buildings off the grid, but in most cases, the lights stayed on because backup generators kicked in.
That wasn’t true everywhere. A dozen people were trapped in stalled elevators, passengers were left searching for exits in darkened underground Metro stations, and a building full of Department of Energy employees and the main campus of the University of Maryland closed their doors. Thousands of visitors at Smithsonian museums on the Mall had to leave for hours. While the outage caused little more than a blip for many others, it took most of the afternoon to fully restore electricity.
COMPARITION OF GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS DURING 4 MAJOR AIRPLANE INCIDENTS BETWEEN 2013 and 2015: (click on graphs to enlarge them)
LATEST MAJOR TROPICAL STORMS & HEAVY WEATHERS
20150519: Heavy loss of life in Colombian landslide
20150502: Deadly floods hit Queensland - 277 mm of rain in 3 hours, Australia
TROPICAL STORMS/ DECEMBER 2014
note: from September 2014 on, this report will contain / collect only data about hurricanes with windspeeds above 50 MPH. For latest developing tropical storms, visit wunderground., com! datasets with a green background are hurricanes those are already over!
A raging torrent has ripped down a ravine in Colombia’s northwestern mountains and swept the town of Salgar away in a mixture of floodwater and dislodged mud and rock. The deadly landslide has claimed at least 61 lives and the authorities fear the number will rise. “You never imagine that something like this is going to happen and even less to see so many people you know, so many neighbours killed,but thanks to God I am fine along with my daughters and my granddaughter,” said one survivor. Rescue teams are struggling to find any survivors but access is difficult and equipment is slow to arrive to the disaster zone. Many people are working through the rubble with their bare hands in the race against time. President Juan Manuel Santos has flown over the area and has declared a public emergency.
Residents of Konya Province in southern Turkey have spoken of their terror when a giant sinkhole suddenly appeared in a local field. “We are very afraid (for) our lives. It is luck that no one fell into it,” said one local farmer. Measuring 10 metres wide and 90 metres deep, the crater is thought to have formed in the space of 24 hours. No one was injured as a result of the ground caving in.
Queensland felt the full force of the East Coast low on Friday afternoon (local time), May 1, 2015 as the system moved south over the NSW Northern Rivers and Mid North Coasts. Five people have died after being swept away by flood waters. All of them were in vehicles at the time.
Torrential rain, described as "off the scale" by State Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk, resulted in deadly flash floods in Australia for the second time in 2 weeks.
The hardest hit area was Caboolture, north of Brisbane, with 333 mm of rain within 24 hours, and 277 mm in just three hours.
On Saturday, May 2, the worst of the storm was over for Queensland, and the severe weather was weakening as it moved south into New South Wales, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) said earlier today.
Some areas of New South Wales have already reported high levels of rainfall and flooding in farmland in northern areas of the state. Several flood warnings have been issued for rivers in New South Wales.
A volcano has erupted on the Galapagos Islands. The Wolf volcano on Isabela Island erupted for the first time in over three decades. Volcanologists claim the eruption poses no risk to people living on the islands. However fears have been expressed for the unique ecosystem that inspired Charles Darwin’s theory of evolution.
SANTIAGO, April 22 (Reuters) - Volcano Calbuco in southern Chile erupted for the first time in more than five decades on Wednesday, sending a thick plume of ash and smoke nearly 20 kilometers into the sky.
Chile's Onemi emergency office declared a red alert following the sudden eruption at around 1800 local time (2100 GMT), which occurred about 1,000 kilometers (625 miles) south of Santiago, the capital, near the tourist town of Puerto Varas.
As night fell, about 4,000 people had so far moved out of the area, an evacuation radius of 20 kilometers has been established and classes have been canceled in surrounding towns, authorities said.
President Michelle Bachelet is scheduled to travel to the affected area on Thursday.
Nearly on the anniversary of the evacuation of 28 thousand camelids from its pastures, the Ubinas volcano erupts once again. The Ubinas volcano of the Moquegua region erupted this morning at 4:24 a.m. causing a layer of ash to fall over nearby villages minutes later, according to Perú21. On March 31, 2014, the volcano’s eruption caused Querapi residents to be evacuated as it sits just five kilometers from the volcano. Days later on April 21, Peru ordered the evacuation of the camelid animals, as the volcano posed a threat following further activity. Today the Ubinas volcano erupted after about four months of calm. The National Service of Meteorology and Hydrology of Peru (SENAMHI) calculated that the 2.5 km column of ash above the crater could reach more than 15 kilometers to the southeast. Escacha and Ubinas Valley therefore will be receiving a layer of ash on their homes, cars, sidewalks, and buidlings today following the eruption. Scientific institutions advise that the local populations protect themselves with masks and goggles and to protect water resources and food to prevent contamination.
This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >
20141216: please note: NASA is currently reorganising their website contents: so all archived images , embedded contents and links posted on external websites such as mine will not work until NASA`s new website will be completed. If once completed- so NASA- all previous links will work again, resp lead/ forward automatically to the new pages. So long as this new website is under construction, NASA has "parked" all previous contents under the prefix "legacy-" So all previous linkred NASA contents can be found just by adding the word " legacy-" prior to the URL resp "www" : example: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/archive/current_month.html has to be changed into: http://legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/archive/current_month.html
1. LATEST AND CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL ALERTS
20150525: X ray background flux dropped to extraordinary low values and is currently on B 1 level.
Active region 12335 - which is just going to rotate out on the western solar limb-produced a major eruptive event that began after 02:25 on 20150512 and which was likely the source of a new SEP. This is uncertain as the CME could have also been triggered by a short impulsive event from the complex sun spot region 12339 around 2:30 UTC . Stereo spacecraft with its infrared filters making at least gases visible heated up by emitting protons ( the only way to locate the region from where a SEP is emitted) is out of service- resp. lost since months. NASA DRAP (image 6) shows heat absorption effects around the Northern ( and not as usual around the Southern pole, which normally only is normally the case after extreme fast SEPs with protons near the speed of light. . Further evolution of proton flux will tell more.
20150505: AR 12339 is rotating in on the eastern solar limb , is very active and produced a serial of flares early on 20150504 and 05 with an X 2.7 flare at around 2300 on 20150504
WARNINGS/ ALERTS: EARTHQUAKES AND MAGMATIC INTRUSION
20150421: the integral electron flux dropped ( was compressed) after a major CME impacted on April 09 , that either contained protons or which was rotating and polarised, impacting with the + pole. The major CME had erupted on APril 06 from a central solar active region had impacted . Electron flux dropped by the event ( compression) on 20150409 but resumed on APril 17 again and exceeded again 1.000 pfu later on that day. On April 19, electron flux began to drop without solar influence, what indicated the final discharge of electrons makroing the end of previous SEPs effects. Another - also positive charged CME from a filament eruption impacted early on April 21 causing a further depression but also a new electron accumulation later on that day. Allthough the > 2 Me V electron flux is again currently exceeding 1.000 pfu. it may soon drop in the next days due to the final discharge, I expect now while no further SEPs had occurred yet. IT would be the first with in the last two years, where one SEPs succeeded ,charging the earth with new protons before the effects of the porevious ones really could come to that end /final electron discharge) GENERAL WARNING! What I call SEP phase III or final discharge indicates also, that the earth body and tectonics will cool down rapidly , whereby the magmatic intrusions during solar proton storms (SEP phase I) and the geomagnetic electron storms following each SEP ( phase II) will be replaced by the opposite effects with strong and sometimes major and catastrophic subduction quakes. I am observing the evolution closely and will issue warnings. THE PROBABILITY FOR MAJOR EARTHQUAKES HOWEVER WILL REMAIN HIGH DURING THE NEXT DAYS: Reasons are there to be careful especially in the regions of the EASTERN PACIFIC INCLUDING ALL AMERICAS WEST COASTS
Inh
20150421: the integral electron flux dropped ( was compressed) after a major CME impacted on April 09 , that either contained protons or which was rotating and polarised, impacting with the + pole. The major CME had erupted on APril 06 from a central solar active region had impacted . Electron flux dropped by the event ( compression) on 20150409 but resumed on APril 17 again and exceeded again 1.000 pfu later on that day. On April 19, electron flux began to drop without solar influence, what indicated the final discharge of electrons makroing the end of previous SEPs effects. Another - also positive charged CME from a filament eruption impacted early on April 21 causing a further depression but also a new electron accumulation later on that day. Allthough the > 2 Me V electron flux is again currently exceeding 1.000 pfu. it may soon drop in the next days due to the final discharge, I expect now while no further SEPs had occurred yet. IT would be the first with in the last two years, where one SEPs succeeded ,charging the earth with new protons before the effects of the porevious ones really could come to that end /final electron discharge) GENERAL WARNING! What I call SEP phase III or final discharge indicates also, that the earth body and tectonics will cool down rapidly , whereby the magmatic intrusions during solar proton storms (SEP phase I) and the geomagnetic electron storms following each SEP ( phase II) will be replaced by the opposite effects with strong and sometimes major and catastrophic subduction quakes. I am observing the evolution closely and will issue warnings. THE PROBABILITY FOR MAJOR EARTHQUAKES HOWEVER WILL REMAIN HIGH DURING THE NEXT DAYS: Reasons are there to be careful especially in the regions of the EASTERN PACIFIC INCLUDING ALL AMERICAS WEST COASTS
alt
click here for previous solar and terrestrial events and alerts
1. LATEST AND CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL ALERTS
an eruption in active region 12335 - which is just going to rotate out on the western solar limb- that began after 02:25 on 20150512 was likely the source of a new SEP. This is uncertain as the CME could have also been triggered by a shprtm impulsive event from the complex sun spot region 12339 around 2:30 UTC . Stereo spacecraft with its infrared filters making at least gases visible heated up by emitting protons ( the only way to locate the region from where a SEP is emitted) is out of service- resp. lost since months. NASA DRAP (image 6) shows heat absorption effects around the Northern ( and not as usual around the Southern pole, which normally only is normally the case after extreme fast SEPs with protons near the speed of light. . Further evolution of proton flux will tell more.
20150505: AR 12339 is rotating in on the eastern solar limb , is very active and produced a serial of flares early on 20150504 and 05 with an X 2.7 flare at around 2300 on 20150504
WARNINGS/ ALERTS: EARTHQUAKES AND MAGMATIC INTRUSION
Inh
20150421: the integral electron flux dropped ( was compressed) after a major CME impacted on April 09 , that either contained protons or which was rotating and polarised, impacting with the + pole. The major CME had erupted on APril 06 from a central solar active region had impacted . Electron flux dropped by the event ( compression) on 20150409 but resumed on APril 17 again and exceeded again 1.000 pfu later on that day. On April 19, electron flux began to drop without solar influence, what indicated the final discharge of electrons makroing the end of previous SEPs effects. Another - also positive charged CME from a filament eruption impacted early on April 21 causing a further depression but also a new electron accumulation later on that day. Allthough the > 2 Me V electron flux is again currently exceeding 1.000 pfu. it may soon drop in the next days due to the final discharge, I expect now while no further SEPs had occurred yet. IT would be the first with in the last two years, where one SEPs succeeded ,charging the earth with new protons before the effects of the porevious ones really could come to that end /final electron discharge) GENERAL WARNING! What I call SEP phase III or final discharge indicates also, that the earth body and tectonics will cool down rapidly , whereby the magmatic intrusions during solar proton storms (SEP phase I) and the geomagnetic electron storms following each SEP ( phase II) will be replaced by the opposite effects with strong and sometimes major and catastrophic subduction quakes. I am observing the evolution closely and will issue warnings. THE PROBABILITY FOR MAJOR EARTHQUAKES HOWEVER WILL REMAIN HIGH DURING THE NEXT DAYS: Reasons are there to be careful especially in the regions of the EASTERN PACIFIC INCLUDING ALL AMERICAS WEST COASTS
alt
1. LATEST AND CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL ALERTS
20150505: AR 12339 is rotating in on the eastern solar limb , is very active and produced a serial of flares early on 20150504 and 05 with an X 2.7 flare at around 2300 on 20150504
20150421: the integral electron flux dropped ( was compressed) after a major CME impacted on April 09 , that either contained protons or which was rotating and polarised, impacting with the + pole. The major CME had erupted on APril 06 from a central solar active region had impacted . Electron flux dropped by the event ( compression) on 20150409 but resumed on APril 17 again and exceeded again 1.000 pfu later on that day. On April 19, electron flux began to drop without solar influence, what indicated the final discharge of electrons makroing the end of previous SEPs effects. Another - also positive charged CME from a filament eruption impacted early on April 21 causing a further depression but also a new electron accumulation later on that day. Allthough the > 2 Me V electron flux is again currently exceeding 1.000 pfu. it may soon drop in the next days due to the final discharge, I expect now while no further SEPs had occurred yet. IT would be the first with in the last two years, where one SEPs succeeded ,charging the earth with new protons before the effects of the porevious ones really could come to that end /final electron discharge) GENERAL WARNING! What I call SEP phase III or final discharge indicates also, that the earth body and tectonics will cool down rapidly , whereby the magmatic intrusions during solar proton storms (SEP phase I) and the geomagnetic electron storms following each SEP ( phase II) will be replaced by the opposite effects with strong and sometimes major and catastrophic subduction quakes. I am observing the evolution closely and will issue warnings. THE PROBABILITY FOR MAJOR EARTHQUAKES HOWEVER WILL REMAIN HIGH DURING THE NEXT DAYS: Reasons are there to be careful especially in the regions of the EASTERN PACIFIC INCLUDING ALL AMERICAS WEST COASTS
1. LATEST AND CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL ALERTS
20150315: AR 12297 - still near the central meridian- was the source of an impressive LDE M 8 class flare associated to a major and fully halo CME after 1:27 UTC, which was likely also the source of a fast SEP. A TYPE II/IV radio e mission was registered by NOAA at 1:27 UTC. First protons reached the geomagnetic field between 2 and 3 UTC, when the integral protons flux began to rise and has reached a maximum yet of 4 pfu. ( at time of this update)
20150311: AR 12297 continued with strong flaring and produced an X 2.1 class flare on March peaking at 16:11. (Image 8 below ). Integral proton flux on GOES began slightly to rise after 22 UTC and must be further observed. The proton increase might also be related to a major filament eruption close to AR 12297, that began after 23 UTC on March 11 (image 9) SeeVideo by solar watcher>:
20150309- 10:AR 12297 continued with strong flares while rotating through the Earth directed side of the Sun. The strongest of three M flares on 20150310 soon after midnight reached M6 and produced another - but rather minor CME after 1:00 UTC: On SoHO images, that the this CME was partial halo . Minor earth directed parts will arrive around 20150312.
20150308:The active region on the eastern limb-meanwhile numbered as AR 12297- is still on LDE activity and produced as double major M 9 flare with an associated CME on March 08 after 22 UTC . The CME was partial halo- what means: it has Earth- directed parts, those might arrive on March 11 >
20150306: A new and very active region appeared on the eastern solar limb and produced a stronger CME and continued with an LDE for hours after that. The region is noit numbered yet, but was there alrready during the past rotation period ( see images below)
^NASA D-RAP/ global heat absorption during proton storm ( SEP: begin: after 2 UTC) on 20150315
(20150513/ 14 UTC) >beginning electron accumulation
DELAYED!
GEOPHYSICAL EFFECTS:
GEOPHYSICAL EFFECTS:
GEOPHYSICAL EFFECTS:
SOLAR ACCELERATED AND EMMITTED PROTONS IMMIGRATE THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD AND ITS POLAR ORBIT
THE PROTONS CREATE AN ADDITIONAL GRAVITY PULL> THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ATTRACKTS AN EQUIVALENT OF ENERGETIC ELECTRONS FROM THE SOLAR MAGNETIC FIELTO NEUTRALISE THIS + CHARGE
AFTER THE PROTONS NOW ALSO ELECTRONS HAVE LOST THEIR CINETIC ENERGY THROUGH HEAT FRICTION. THE ACCUMULATION COLLAPSES THE EARTH MANTLE - PREVIOUSLY HEATED UP BY THE PROTON IMPACT and ELECTRON EFFECTS.- COOLS DOWN AND CONTRACTS AGAIN.
HEAT EFFECTS ON EARTH CORE AND MANTLE: VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES / MAINLY ON HOT SPOTS( SOUTH POLAR TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (-)
TORNADOES, THUNDERSTORMS, VOLCANIC SURFACE ACTIVITIES TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (m. northern Hemisphere)
> MAJOR AND potential CATASTROPHIC SUBDUCTION QUAKES with magnitudes (> M 8 or even > M 9 ) high enough to create a substantial and widespread Tsunami, if quakes occure subseas.
!if the integral electron flux / plot below) should SUDDENLY SHARPLY DROP, STRONGER MAJOR SUBDUCTION EARTHQUAKES become most probable! (globally!) You won`t believe that? Then test it!
Rising integral proton (= proton stotrm) = magmatic and hot spot intrusion with minor earthquakes
SOLAR / TERRESTRIAL (NEAR TO) REAL TIME DATA AND PLOTS:
1.2.3. SOLAR SEPs/ SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA/ weekly report:
EARLY WARNING! 20150208: the integral electron flux, that shortly rose again after another- but this time minor slow and uneffective SEP had occured in the only active nested region 12286, began significantly to drop on February 07: This now can mark for the first time since begin of 2014 , that all SEP effects those had ccumulated during this period within the geomagneti field might dcerease now and come to a preliminary end : Due to all collected data during previous SEPs, STRONG AND HEAVY DISASTROUS SUBDUCTION QUAKES MIGHT FOLLOW VERY QUICKLY when the remaining electron charge( accumulation in the geomagnetic field is discharching ( as it seems to be the case since 20150207 ) and tectonic plates and the mantle magma heated up by these SEPs will begin swiftly to cool down part to harden and to CONTRACT : NOTE: this forecast is based on data and analysis of previous socalled solar SEP (proton) events and is nevertheless ( as all foreecasts) WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY OR GUARANTEE! MAJOR SUBDUCTION QUAKES THOSE ARE LIKELY MOGHT OCCURE DURING THE NEXT DAYS HAVE MOST LIKELY TO BE EXPECTED IN THE REGION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND MAINLY AROUND THE 180° LATITUDES MOST LIKELY AFFECTING THE AMERICAN PACIFIC COAST - Alaska down to California and beyond . with possible effects also to Japan and the east pacific subduction zones ( Tonga, Fiji, Vanuatu, Hawaii and NZL) ALL SEAQUAKES EXCEEDING MAGNITUDES oF M 8.0 are capable to trigger a widespread TSUNAMI in these regions!
Active region 12335 - which is just going to rotate out on the western solar limb-produced a major eruptive event that began after 02:25 on 20150512 and which was likely the source of a new SEP. This is uncertain as the CME could have also been triggered by a shprtm impulsive event from the complex sun spot region 12339 around 2:30 UTC . Stereo spacecraft with its infrared filters making at least gases visible heated up by emitting protons ( the only way to locate the region from where a SEP is emitted) is out of service- resp. lost since months. NASA DRAP (image 6) shows heat absorption effects around the Northern ( and not as usual around the Southern pole, which normally only is normally the case after extreme fast SEPs with protons near the speed of light. . Further evolution of proton flux will tell more.
(image 1 below) 20150505: AR 12339 is rotating in on the eastern solar limb , is very active and produced a serial of flares early on 20150504 and 05 with an X 2.7 flare at around 2300 on 20150504
PREVIOUS ACTIVITIES: ( read more in register panel below)
1.3 SOLAR/ TERRESTRIAL RELATIONS
click here for previous weekly reports (MAY 2015)
20150315: AR 12297 , still near the central nmeridian produced an impressive LDE after midnight, which was likely the source of a fast SEP. A TYPE II/IV radio e mission was registered by NOAA at 1:27 UTC. First Protons reached the geomagnetic field between 2 and 3 UTC, when the integral protons flux began to rise reaching a maximum yet ( at time of this update) of 4 pfu.
20150311: AR 12297 continued with strong flaring and produced an X 2.1 class flare on March peaking at 16:11. (Image 8 below ). Integral proton flux on GOES began slightly to rise after 22 UTC and must be further observed. The proton increase might also be related to a major filament eruption close to AR 12297, that began after 23 UTC on March 11 (image 9)
20150309- 10:AR 12297 continued with strong flares while rotating through the Earth directed side of the Sun. The strongest of three M flares on 20150310 soon after midnight (image 3) reached M6 and produced another - but rather minor CME after 1:00 UTC: On SoHO images, that the this CME was partial halo . Minor earth directed parts will arrive around 20150312.
20150308:The active region on the eastern limb-meanwhile numbered as AR 12297- is still on LDE activity and produced as double major M 9 flare with an associated CME on March 08 after 22 UTC . (image 9, 10 ) The CME has aeart directed parts those might arrive on March 11
20150306: 20150306: A new and very active region appeared on the easternsolar limb and produced a stronger CME (image 7 below) and continued with an LDE for hours after that( img 8 below) . The region is not numbered yet, but was there alrready during the past rotation period ( see images 5 and 6 below)
20150304: Y 10 MeV Electrons increased above 1.000 pfu following recent minor proton events. Protons are the reference value for the total electrons charge . But with changing proton values also the electron flux on the measurment devices is kind of altered so the total load cannot really be estimated. after no stronger SEPs have occured since longer time a final discharge with the effects as researched and described in that report becomes more an more probable and would be the frist after one year with continuing and accumlating SEPs activities 20150303: The nested region as observed during the past year and described in the recent reports appeared end of February behind the eastern limb but is currently invisible) .NOAA therefore numbered it just as an spotted S 4254. It was active once with a strong prominence one week ago but seems currently to be inactive and might just have temporarely faded, resp sank deeper into the solar gas hull. This already was the case during 1 rotation period in the second half of 2014 . After it the AR reapperaed in an even larger size and produced X flares. Next rotation period will tell more.. While this region is currently inactive, AR 12290 was quite active during the past days with numerous M flares and CMEs those seem not to have larger earth directed parts.
20150302: solar X ray activity increased over the past days:(image 1 below) On March 01 there were several filament eruptions on different areas of the visible disc and the large RECURRENT CH 657 ( the only currently visible part of the large persistent configuration as described below) produces high speed solar winds . Both has crated a MINOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM.
(image 2, 3) The nested region as described below has not appeared yet and made have temporary faded below coronal gases as it already did several times in 2014. The region seems empty . Just the coronal hole 657 is still there where it was since this persistent configuration had envolved. AR 12290, which is already going to rotate out on the western limb is currently active and produced- one after another- two minor M flares on 20150202, those have no earth directed parts (image 4)
20150228: Another SEP must have begun late on February 26: Integral proton flux began to rise after 24 UTC on 20150226 and is currently ( at time of this update near to 1.0 pfu)( image 1: GOES Proton plot). This time I could not detect the typical side effect that SEPs accelerate gases upwards from the solar surface and corona on SoHO imagery, Thus this SEP was maybe a backside event. what I can`t proof as well, since both STEREO satellites are still ot of service.
If it was a front side event, ( the SEPs themselves are mostly invisible on light based telescopes anyway ) protons this time would have a rather slow acceleration what makes them rather ineffective in terms that they would heat up the earth mantle over their impact on earth. Nevertheless, the protons that immigrate the Earth,will- as ever - attrackt and accumulate an equivalent number of electrons from the solar magnetic field , those are energetic enough to produce these typical heat / temperature anomalies around an in the Northern pole those cause the weather tubulences wer are facing each time after an SEP on the Northern Hemisphere. THis - as expectable- continuing electron accumulation also supports further volcanic activities.
SDO shows a minor flare in AR and a filament eruption in the nested configuration which has not yet fully rotated in .( These events cannot be seen on a single standby picture and must be watched in a timeline video on SDOs website) and occurerd later , So the cannot be related to that SEP event
(special& continued report:) THE LARGE AND MYSTERIOUS SOLAR SURFACE REGION THAT HAS A CONFIGURATION THAT REMAINED WIDELY UNCHANGED SINCE at least ONE YEAR!
I yet just traced this large region covering at least a quarter of the solar disc back to May 2011. ( see previous archive reports) This review has shown , that the entire configuration remained almost unchanged since then. On 20141215, the main and mostly only active region on the entire disc, active region 12235 produced an extreme fast filament eruption , AR 12235 is a nested stationary sun spot cluster and forms with another active region and a large coronal hole a very active configuration that persists since at least one year( I have just not traced it further back yet) AR 12235 was AR12209 active during the last rotation period and was AR 12192 two rotation periods earlier, when it produced 4 strong X class flares in a row .The configuration covers more than a quarter of the solar disc and has a kind of gravity center with a coronal hole stretching towards the Northern pole an has also a low spotted area which is also but less active than AR 12235. which is situated 15- 30 ° further in the east . (> images 5 and 6 . During all that time this nested AR was and is only AR on the visible that produced flares and CMEs. Currently the entire configuration seems to be active and produces a type of flaring resp shoots out hot gazes all over the area it covers.. The most active AR in it- AR 12235 became smaller yet during previous periods and then began to grown again., Currently it appears rather small ) . What is it and what does this big are doe next ? Nobody knows...Allthough humans observe the Sun meanwhile day and night, much about our central star is still more a mystery and an still good for some surprises.
( image 4 >) satellite transmissions were repeatedly knocked out between 20141213 and 14 and there was a short rise in integral Proton flux on 20141213/ 6 UTC when values rose to 2,5 pfu until 20141216/ 00 , when vaklues were back again at +/- 0.1 pfu. as usual . But satellite imagery that needs light to make any image cannot cover those proton events and where these SEPs actually occure. However,: STEREO with its infra red usually can at least cover secondary events ( the protons do accelerate and heat up gazes on the solar surface those emit then ) such are gazes hgeated up after the proton explosion by highest accelerated protons. Butr also Stereo has a transmission blackout on December 13 and 14. theavailable images show an intensive flaring activity on the front side . STEREO also observed a strong type of filament eruption heading from the North Polar solar region ( image 4 >)
We might either get a new SEP soon ( an event that comes more or less out of nowhere) or the effects of the previous SEPs will come to an end: When the current electron accumulation ( which is still exceeding temporarely 1.000 pfu.) will drop, as now further SEP has occured during the past 6 weeks , the earth mantle heated up by these SEPs will cool down and STRONG SUBDUCTION quakes will accompony that process.however: magma intrusion creates something like holes ( aou also can call that underpresssure or defizits) within the earth mantle , So the intensive magma intrusion we can observe onm a global scalesince some years will be logically be always accomponied/ followed by subduction quakes, by those new material is pulled- "dives down" into the earth mantle is melted there and will equalize that defizit.( more see right column)>
( see " NASA earth observatory / land surface temperature anomalies above). The temperature anomalies on the Northern hemisphere became more intensive in February 2015 , with Hudson Bayas in the past years still representing the coldest area and with temperatures in Sibiria in Russia exceeeding those in central and Southern Europe. Part of this anomalies are created by solar SEPs . But scientists also noted an increased shifting of the magnetic poles. Noting the last available report it seems however unlikely, that the Northern magnetic pole shifts towards Siberia as this official report claimed. Its rather likely or seems so, that it has already mainly shifted into Hudson |Bay * where we also have the relatively coldest region on the Northern hemisphere since years. The phenomenon of megnetic field shifting is known since the 60th and was since then observed by a group of american researchers,whonfirst came to the conclusion that the Northern magnetic field would move with expontial speeed/means first just some centimeters per year , than meters ...( but the official scientist still said, that those fluctuations would be quite normal
DETAILED REPORT OF LATEST MAJOR SOLAR SUN SPOT ACTIVITIES ( updated only during major events, such as major flares CMEs or SEPs)
AUG 2014: DAILY SOLAR REVIEWS ARE BEING REDUCED TO SIGNIFICANT SOLAR ACTIVITY DEVELOPMENTS !
means: you find only full reports, that cover all related data, if stronger activities occure. Some monthly archives might therefor contain only one daily review,. others might contain more. depending on the evolution of solar sun spot activity after the peak was reached on 2013
2015
MONTH
JANUARY
DAY:
none yet xx
< date refers to available event data and summaries
ACE ( Advanced Composition Explorer) is on and L 1 orbit at the edge between solar and geomagnetic field and measures the intensity and composition of interplanetary solar winds
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M1 event observed at 06/1709Z from Region 2157 (S14E44). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Sep, 08 Sep, 09 Sep).
ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS INVOLVED IN MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITIES, CMEs OR SEPS ( other active regions are not posted)
ACE ( Advanced Composition Explorer) is on and L 1 orbit at the edge between solar and geomagnetic field and measures the intensity and composition of interplanetary solar winds
USAF report on geophysical activity for previous day:>>
* graph only during significant events
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 430 km/s at 06/2049Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 06/1531Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 06/0512Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9 pfu at 06/0740Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 286 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (07 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (08 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (09 Sep). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (07 Sep), are likely to cross threshold on day two (08 Sep) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (09 Sep).
20140430: protons appproached again from polar Earth orbit-
meaning of background colors>
yellow= this particles are currently active/ dominant
red= strong event
} orange background = ACTIVE electrons/ but their effectivity is PENDING OR INTERFERED BY PROTONS/ or> PROTONS are still too fast to envolve significant effects
CURRENT SEP/ PROTON EFFECTS
May 23- 2014: Protons- particulary from the high speed SEP on APR 18. partic. also from minor recent solar eruptions (AR 12071) are still active in the geomagnetic field with an increase of magmatic activities at the same time. At 22 UTC a sudden increase of electron density likely marked the end of the effectivity these protons had in the geomagneticmfield over the last days and weeks
ELECTRON EFFECTS>
20140610: integral electrons flux signficantly began to rise and might reach tresholds soon in the coming days. The increase followed a strong depression of the electron flux by former SEP and solar protons effects and indicate that these protons effects those lasted for more than 1 month are over now. hot spot activities have again dcreased yet in the last weeks The electron accumulation now will bring again high temperatures and droughts to the Northern hemisphere, as welll as sudden tornadoes, thunderstorms . I am not sure, how the high tension of the integral electron fluxmight induce cururents into ships on high seas power grids and other electric devices but several servers ship incidents those occured during electron accumulations in the greomag field suggest that ea. are capable for.
The current state of particles within the geomag. field is after quite a dozen part. accumulating SEPs since autum 2013 is rather confusing and data plots dont`t allow exact results.
might persist for several weeks now after those these electrons will finally discharge. This last SEP phase expected in about 3 weeks sometime end of June 2014 ( if no further solar SEPs occures) with cooling down of and contraction effects on the affected tectonic plates those likely finally will trigger strong and CATASTROPHIC earthquakes with magnitudes above M 9!!
20140607: The integral electron flux dropped again into negative values and continued so since JUne 03. The source of the disturbance are likely protons still active either from previous events or from recent solar protons emissions into interplanetary space
20140523/ 22 UTC There was a sudden increase of the integral electron flux after 22 UTC. There was no similar related event found on ACE data , thus the increase seems not to be related to a solar event, but rather marks the end of the effectivity , solar protons had on the geomagnetic field during the last days and weeks
20140523: During the second half of May 2014 , electrons were first rising as expected following the strong high speed SEP on April 18 ( with protons almost at the speed of light) . After May 17, the electron energy was again neutralized by those still active and after May 23 also by newly incoming protons ( activities in AR 12071) and fell into minus values, what does not mean, that these electrons would lose their cinetic energy by that . They rather get compressed and electrically neutralised by protons circulating with the field lines , what at least temporarely hampers their ability to cause thunderstorms and strong tornadoes or induced currents.
Temperature anomalies around the Northern pole continue since end of 2013 and brought again climatical extremes to the medium latitudes.
orange background >means: The electron effects of the last SEO were overlapsed by new SEP eventand currently deactivated or: HIGH SPEED SEP. Protons are still to fastto envolve significant effects
SEP EVENT HISTORY :
20140418/
13:19 UTC
complex nested solar region AR 12036 (35- 37 produced and M 7,.8 LDE flare peaking with a CME at 13:19 UTC. The event was associated with a medium strong SEP. First Protons arrived soon after 13 uTC- thus were accelerated near to the speed of light,due to the fact , that the eruption took place near the central solar meridian and the proton speed is highest radially to the eruption center. means, that some proton effects such as hot spot activities will delay resp takle place slowly
20140413- 16
The integral Electron flux began to increase after strongly been compressed by active protons. (20140415) Integral electron flux is expected to exceed treshold of 1.000 pfu on 20140416
20140405
after 12 UTC
Proton flux slightly increased to max 1.0 pfu after solar event
20140325
08 UTC
Integral,proton flux rose after CME event on 20140324 to values up to 1 pfu.
20140317
Integral proton flux has decreased to normal values after March 07. But the high amount of protons those impacted during this long lasting proton storm ist still effective with heat in the earth body and mantle .Hot spot activities are still present on the Canary islands. The proton influence also still knocks down the integral electron flux to zero and even into negative values. There is a slight recovery of the electron since March 17 . Values will further increase and exceed 100 pfu at any time in about 1 or two weeks ( SEP phase II) , if no new SEP occures.
20140228
Integral Proton flux increased further on February 28 and reached 100 pfu early in the morning. I have not reviewed the solar events yet. but protons storms/ eruptions are what I call " the invisible eruption"
PENDING SEP PHASE III/ FINAL -DISCHARGE COOLING DOWN OF TECTONICS> CONTRACTION> SUBDUCTION QUAKES!
further outlook
M 5.5. - > M 8. 0 ( HIGH)
1- 3 (SUBDUCTION)
SEP PHASE III( final discharge)
update will follow
2-3 ( possible subduction!)
PHASE III COOLING DOWN OF TECTONICS/ FINAL DISCHARGE due to final electron discharge/high propability of strong subduction quakes!
ABOUT LATENCIES:
INFLUENCES:
* latent potential for earthquakes with magnitudes higher than M 9.0! Some major catastrophic earthquake might likely happen, when effects of accumulated SEPs diminuish /.> 10 MeV electron accumulation will be neutralised, what is indicated , when electron energy suddenly will sharply drop at its end
EFFECTING AS >
INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW
** estimated
NOTES: ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 with green brackgound is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable
(In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!
20140620: remark: Currently I am examining whether also electron accumulations effect on hot spot or surface volcanism
for longer time I have not updated myself on the latest of NASA curiosity rover Mars mission. Now I found some articles with some indeed strange images Curiosity sent to Earth
3. The "crocodile" This nosy crocodile once fully turned into stone , when it lurked up to the sky , when obvioulsy something strange happened, we might call " Medusa effect"
my favourite ones: parts of destroyed buildings? Stone figures similar to the ones found on Eastern islands:
A group of youtube people are just waiting for the next super high resolution image the rover sends home, most people as obviously also the NASA staff does oftenly not take much notice of. Curiosity`s images have such a high resolution that you can search and magnify on them each detail and its just incredible what people find on these images:
Just watch the video( right side): I just can`t prove whether the "vehicle" oin this photo might be a a fake!>
Beside the jokes made upon these discoveries like the video with " the green frog" that survived on Mars after its water channels had dried out, some of these dicoveries just knocked me out of my shoes. Best source for those images on youtube is the channel what`s up in the sky.
However: Its meanwhile in all news and obviously noone could approve yet , that those images would have been faked with an photo editing software!
July 2014: note: as the solar sun spot activity is decreasing now, major events will get less at least until May June 2014 .Therefor, this project is also limited now to basic updates. In July 2014 I decided to update this page only after significant event and changes and to turn this page into an monthly page that will cover significant events and can be archived then in that form.
January 25- 2014:
2013, after 2 years after the second major> M 9 Earthquake had taken place within on decade and after two years of statistic evaluation and comparation of solar and terestrial data, it became clear , that socalled SEPS would be the solar feature I was looking , being that solar feature, that indeed can even have signifiant and even strongest related geophysical effects.
Now in early 2014, the peak off the sun spots cycle seems to be over and related activity visibly have decreased . I don`t expect many stronger and significant solar events for the next half year.
Recently I decided, to close the ongoing solar and terrestrial documentary at this point in this form , as it was made until now., whith complete data and event evaluation as its required for any scientific work . This I did to get this project to a point, that its results would be available and evaluable for further report and can be also a basic for further scientics research
Nevertheless as observations and evaluations have shown , that esp. the socalled SEPs ( solar events with proton emissions) are the almost only geoeffective known type of solar event) those do even have extremely strong and complex effects on the earth body , thos only and best can be descroved described just with the phrase "theoretically can do everything". This is- since SEPs turned out to be the possible cause also for catastrophic earthquakes such as 2014 and 2011 - what this documentary now focussed on. SEPs however do happen MOST frequently during the maximum of the 11 years solar sun spot cycle (last in 2012(13) , but occure also in between but just in lower number.
So I will continue to watch over all these solar data and event and try to provide a full report and complete coverage in time if any furthe major event should take place ..
so the solar teerrestrial blog will be continued in another simplified and limited form:
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