According to NASA, this 24th. 11 year sun spot cycle has probably a " twin peak"- the second in 2015. This project therefore will be prolongued.
THE 11 YEAR SUN SPOT CYCLE-
LAST MAXIMUM ACTIVITY IN: 2012/ 13 NEXT: APPR. in 2024
SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG
- activities and major events-
NOVEMBER 2015
note: as the solar sun spot activity is decreasing now, less major events are expected at least in the next years. (next cycle minimum expected in 2019)
.Therefor, this project is also limited now to basic updates. In July 2014 I decided to update this page only after significant event and changes and to turn this page into an monthly page that will cover significant events and can be archived then in that form.
research and documentary of the 24th solar cycle with evaluation of certain geoeffective Solar activities (esp. polarised rotating CMEs and SEPs) with coincident terrestrial events such as :
ESSENTIAL SOURCES ON SOLAR ACTIVITIES; Satellite Real Time images and data plots, weblinks etc....click here to expand and close the collapsible panel to read all..
SECTION: LATEST INFORMATION ON SOLAR ACTIVITIES
EVENT RELATED INTERPLANETARY & GEOMAGNETIC DATA PLOTS IMAGES OR VIDEO SOURCES:
(1) SOLAR REAL TIME / CURRENT SATELLITE DATA AND EVENTS
REAL TIME images links for current views on the sun surface- click to enlarge
HOW SOLAR ACTIVITY REPORTS ARE COMMONLY MADE:
SOLAR (NEAR) REAL TIME images as provided by satellites such as SDO, STEREO and SoHO are the first main source on Solar activity data: Various telescopes imaging different levels of frequencies can make sun spots, active regions visoiblöe as well as coronal holes and solar eruptions: solar prominences, flares and associated CMEs ( one exception are proton emissions those remain invisible on any usal imagery. Protons emissions and storms can be measured withe certain instruments instead ( GOES)
Second step is the interplanetary space and solar magnetic field . The Advanced Composition Explorer ( ACE) is "situated" on an geosynchronous orbit outside the geomagnetic field . This satellite has only measurement instruments onboard those deliver various data about the composition of the solar wind. Solar winds blow and circulate regularly through the interplanatary space . Coronal mass ejections and other extraordinary solar events eruptions throw large amounts of solar matter into the interplanetary space . ACE can deliver first data , how strong a possibly earth directed CME might be 1 - 2 days before those CMEs impact and answer the first primary question associated to any CME: Has the main CMEa positive or negative "POLARITY "-( =AN ESPECIAL - PROTON or ELECTRON charge)? means: is the incoming CME NEUTRAL, has it higher accelerated PROTONs or ELECTRONS. THis first question (which one of the two antagonists- the proton or electrons arrives first) determines whether a CME can fully impact into the geomagnetic field or almost NOT AT ALL!
Last not least, in the third step, the GEOSTATIONARY GOES SATELLITES measure what INDEED IMPACTS INTO THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD, basic for all space weather forecasts and forceasts as this one on my page, how strong EARTH DIRECTED CMES might unfluence nature and human civilisation!
-Go to "SOLAR CONTROL CENTER to find out more about these solar observatories or click on the many links on this page to get fisst hand informations!-
SOLAR REAL TIME SAT IMAGES :
note also: SDO, SOHO C3 and STEREO (360° VIEW°) REAL TIME IMAGES ON TOP OF THAT PAGE!
the Earth`s geomagnetic field electrons might defend the Earth even against CMEs from a X 10 flare, what poses the likely only danger , is the attack "from the other side" know as "protons events"
about:
ABOUT: SOLAR PROTON EMISSIONS (proton flares or storms etc. ) ARE RARE EVENTS . But- differently to the mostly of negative charged (electrons) CMEs , PROTON CMEs effect (finally by associated energetic events) until deep into the ground and the Earth`s interior. Proton emissions impact fully into the (negatively charged) geomagnetic field by their positive electric charge and add a positive component to it, what makes the geomag. field TEMPORARELY then also vulnerable especially for following negatively charged CMEs . The protons themselves have paradox effects: first they swallow many electrons (likely reacting with them to neutrons what causes first a "geomagnetic depression" with lower field density (lessactive, free electrons) and paradox ANTIENERGETIC effects (best describable as the "calm prior to the storm" ) .. read more in text box above
Long-range communications using high frequency (HF) radio waves (3 - 30 MHz) depend on reflection of the signals in the ionosphere. Radio waves are typically reflected near the peak of the F2 layer (~300 km altitude), but along the path to the F2 peak and back the radio wave signal suffers attenuation due to absorption by the intervening ionosphere.
Absorption is the process by which the energy of radio waves is converted into heat and electromagnetic (EM) noise through interactions between the radio wave, ionospheric electrons, and the neutral atmosphere (for a more extensive description of the absorption process see Davies, 1990). Most of the absorption occurs in the ionospheric D region (50–90 km altitude) where the product of the electron density and the electron-neutral collision frequency attains a maximum...
The precipitation of protons (as well as other ions) into the earth’s atmosphere during the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events can also create significant enhancements of ionospheric electron densities in the D region. Solar protons with energies between 1 to 200 MeV are primarily responsible for most of ionization of the D region and, consequently, for the ionospheric absorption of HF radio waves. Because of shielding of the earth by its magnetic field SEPs find easy access to the atmosphere only in high latitude regions around the earth’s geomagnetic poles. Such occurrences are therefore termed Polar Cap Absorption (PCA) events....read more...
CLICK HERE FOR INTERNATIONAL MEDIA AND NEWS SOURCES & OTHER EXTERNAL LINKS- DAILY NEWS FROM WHERE IT HAPPENS!..click here to expand and close the collapsible panel to read all..
NEWS CHANNELS:
( collecting of recommendable international news channels is still ongoing...): Note: This list is dedicated to get latest informations directly from regional news channels and sources all over the world . Alien-homepage does not take any responsibility for contents of websites posted on this list nor for their liability
(INTERNAL) find all known volcanoes worldwide on my internal GLOBAL VOLCANO MAPS - including webcams and other features- click here to expand and close the collapsible panel -
Voted as one of the most beautiful beaches in the world by media like CNN and Trip Advisor numerous times, the picturesque beach of Egremni on the island of Lefkada is no more, following the deadly earthquake that struck the island on Tuesday, November 17th which killed two elderly women.
< 20151120: CONTINUING EARTHQUAKE SWARM NEAR LEVKADA/ GREECE IONAN SEA
This summary report was written by Dr. Antonios Pomonis, an Earthquake expert from Greece with countless years of experience in earthquake loss and earthquake engineering. We thank him so much for the succinct and detailed analysis. In the coming days we hope for additional damage data to become available.. CASUALTIES ON LEFKAS ISLAND In Vasiliki a 70 year old woman was killed when her house was destroyed by a rockfall (Some more details emerged about the death of the old lady in Vasiliki village: the death occurred after the end of the ground shaking sequence, as a rolling boulder arrived and smashed her house some seconds (not clear how many) later.) In Athani an 82 year old woman was killed due to collapse of a fencing boundary wall 8 injured taken to the Lefkas Town Hospital of which 1 in Vasiliki (12 years old boy), 1 in Pinakochori (88 year old woman), 1 in Lygia area (10 year old boy), 1 in Lefkas Town (45 years old man)...read more...
(click here to see previous natural incident reports of the current month)
update/ 20151113: 20151109/ after 21 UTC: another minor SEP occured- likely on the western limb- of the Sun. Proton values within the geomagnetic orbit began to rise after 21 UTC butr did not exceed 10 pfu.>> The associated alectron flux however increased further after the event and does currently ( since V Nov 09) exceed 10.000 pfu.>>>
Stereo Ahead suffered an electric shock during the event. latest images form 20151109/ 125 UTC show the flare activity which was associated to this SEP >
Two years after the 11 year sun spot cycle peaked in 2013, SEPs still occure regularly high frequencies but with lower strengt. The subsequent electron accumulation, following each proton event. While the proton event itself usually lasts from one day up to one week, the subsequent electron accumulation , folllowing each SEP however is far more energetic than the proton impact itself and its effects last - equivalent to the SEP intensity before- over weeks and month
The high electron flux is the reason for the ongoing surface temperature anomalies the extraordinary warm temperatures and paradox weather patterns on the Northern hemisphere.
Now also Germany which is in the center of Europe, gifted with lots of rainbringing mountains begins seriously to suffer from the ongoing drought
A large sinkhole suddenly opened up on the grounds of Frontage Road in Meridian city, Mississippi on November 7, 2015. The underlying cause is still unknown, although it is suspected that an abundant amount of rainfall that was affecting the area over the last two weeks could have triggered it....read more...
20151106: a major CME impacted after around 5 P.M on NOvember , 06th.
as solen.onfo,report: November 4: A partial halo CME was observed after the M3 LDE in AR 12443. The CME could reach Earth sometime between late on November 6 and noon on November 7.
The associated CME was not that strong, but was a full halo and impact on Earth as the related sun spot region just passed through the solar meridian, whiule the CMW was produced
A huge gap in the Earth opened up in the area about 16 km (10 miles) south of the Ten Sleep town in Bighorn Mountains, Wyoming at the end of September 2015.
The enormous crack is approximately 686 m (2 250 feet) in length and 46 m (151 feet) in width, according to the SNS Outfitters & Guides who were the first to report the occurrence. The experts have explained there are no unusual forces at work here, only normal geology, which is very rich and impressive on the grounds of Wyoming.
update: A major solar proton event (SEPO) began on 20151029 after 02 UTC: The source of the eruption was at or behind the eastern limb, where STEREO Awith its infrared telescope noticed an explosion of hot gazes on the solar surface the typical strong heat signature, by which such an SEP only becomes visible.>>(more in register panel below)
update: A major solar proton event (SEP) began on 20151029 after 02 UTC: The source of the eruption was at or behind the eastern limb, where STEREO Awith its infrared telescope noticed an explosion of hot gazes on the solar surface the typical strong heat signature, by which such an SEP only becomes visible.
The integral 10 Me Protons flux as well as > 100 MeV Protons at geostationarly orbit began to increase on 20151029 after 2:30 UTC both exceeding trashold.NOAA issued a speace weather alert.Activities ( magma intrusion) on volcanic hotspots such as the canaries, Yellowstone or Hawaii are likely SIGNIFICANTLY to increase in the coming days.
The integral 10 Me Protons flux as well as > 100 MeV Protons at geostationarly orbit began to increase on 20151029 after 2:30 UTC both exceeding trashold.
image 1> NASA D RAP. heat absoption of solar protons on 20151019 at 12 UTC. ( image 2right) proton flux on 20151029/ IMg 3 >> Stereo Ahead
update: A minor solar SEP occurred on 20151023 with first protons arriving at geostatioonary orbit after 18 UTC. Values reached barely 1.0 pfu.and were back to normal around 12 UTC on October 24th.
20151001_Solar activity was rather calm throughout September 2015.Now towards the end of September, two minor new SEPs ( solar proton events)occured on the Sun and were likely the cause for another increase in hot spot activites- in form new magma intrusions.
The SEP on September 30 (geomagnetic proton impact time: after 18 UTC) likely resulted with a complex event of simultanous flares on the eastern solar limb, beginning after 15 UTC: (images. SDO):
The proton flux values were rather low but meet a still active accumulation of protons and electrons form previous SEPs in the geomagnetic field -mainly the one that occured near summer soltice on June 18 and 21.that created a long term higher tension, that has weakened yet but has not really discharged yet
Seismic activities indicating new magma movements increased especially around Hawaii islands, around Etna on Sicil as well as below El Pinar at the South of El Hierro, where about the Canary hot spot is presently situated. The geysir activities in the Yellowstone park were rather high after October 01:
After October 01- 2015, also the earthquake swarm activities near Puerto Rico resumed/ increased again those occur since years and refer to tectonic movements within the Atlantic ocean- likely tensions caused by expanding magma rising up through the Midatlantic ridge as well as from the Canary hotspot:
20151122:Microquake activity in Yellowstone region increases: >>
Microquakes > M 2 directly in the yellowstone caldera are usually rather seldom and occured yet not oftener than 1 or 2 per year. 5 microquakes with magnitidues higher than 2. 0 were measured now in November 2015. On Nov 22 for the first time- two one after another on one day:
At the same time, microquake activity also has increased in the region of the hot spot of the Canary islands. However some of the stronger quakes were felt by the people in EL Hierro, but there is still no visible sign of any surface eruption yet...
>
ASSOCIATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:
RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:
note: the Tsunami report on this site here is for documentary but rather not up to date. For latest informations, check out: NOAA/ PTWC TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS
A powerful earthquake has hit central Chile, causing buildings to sway in the capital Santiago, officials say. The 8.3-magnitude tremor was centred off the coast, about 144 miles (232km) north-west of the capital. Five people are now known to have died, and one million residents have been evacuated from coastal areas. There were reports of panic in some cities. The earthquake produced waves of up to 4.5m (15ft) along the coast in the region of Coquimbo. The tremor struck at 19:54 local time (22:54 GMT), about 55km west of the city of Illapel, the US Geological Survey said. Officials said it was at the depth of about 10km (six miles)....read more
CHILE SEAQUAKE: CAUSED BY A SUBDUCTION OR BY A MAGMATIC INTRUSION??
INternal report /M 8.3 earthquake Chile: The Earthquake serial or strong swarm quake occurs near the Peru Chile trench and close to the Chilean Diamante caldera (the remnant of the MAIPO supervolcano) with its active volcanoes around. ( click here for map of Chile )
The trench reaches down to 8000 meters below sea level On its eastern side die Andes then reach more than 4000 meter high above sealevel what makes a total difference of more than 11.00 meters in altidude. In the language of the geologists, "trench" is the false term. Such a feature is called "oceanic depth" formed by convergance , while "trench" would mean a stretching zone . The Peru Chile trench however is defined and known to be a subduction zone, where the NASCA plate is submerged below the SA continental plate.
The mechanics of magma intrusion and subduction ( two opposite seismic acitivities those condition each other) there are not described exactly . Those earthquake are likely caused ( resp best imaginable) by holes, depression or caves ( resp.a defizit of magma in the earth mantle below those form out, by the fact, that magma is pressed upwards mainly through hot spots somwhere else or even nearby, when the earth mantle periodically or from time to time (such as by solar SEPs) becomes warmer. By the underpressure then at any time those caves collapse by a massive landmass such as the andes above which then suddenly sinks some deeper filling that hole (subduction) .
First I thought, the high electron flux/ accumulation caused by the extreme proton event on June 18 and 21now would come to their final discharge ( SEP phase III- what would be generally be accomponied then by strong subduction quakes as the heated up earth mantle cools down then and the earthcrust contracts ). But observing the electron flux during Sep 17 2015 first showed that the electrons were still high and near to 10.000 pfu. But then- on 20150919, the electrons indeed began sharply to drop again. Also this must be observed further to see what it is.
So if this is drop of the high electron flux again is not caused by solar wind streams, this earthquake might be just a prelude of a serial of stronger quakes those might/ will occure during the following weeks
So I first believed , this earthquake could have been caused by pressure of updwelling magma there or on a aneighbored oceanic ridge .The quake was on the landside of the trench, what rather speaks for the subductoin theory .
LATEST (KNOWN) TSUNAMI EVENTS:
RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:
note: the Tsunami report on this site here is for documentary but rather not up to date. For latest informations, check out: NOAA/ PTWC TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS
note: the Tsunami report on this site here is for documentary but rather not up to date. For latest informations, check out: NOAA/ PTWC TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS
(20151026 internal)Microquake activity in the region of San Francisco intensified after in terms,that most of the shocks measuring up to M 3 are FELT ON THE SURFACE as type of rolling thunder and that they do bring buildngs to sway.(read testimonies at EMSC here)
With over 100 official deaths in Afghanistan following the earthquake in the extreme north of the country, few people believe the total number will stay at that level for long.>>
Update 08:35 UTC : USGS has just created his theoretical shaking maps and this looks very very bad. A vast area would have been exposed to a very strong shaking which will mean a lot of devastation. The yellow area on the map can be considered as extremely dangerous for damage, injuries and even fatalities.>>...readmore...
>
20151021: GERMANY; STRONGER MAGMATIC MICROQUAKE NEAR EIFFEL VOLCANO FIELD.>>
A stronger magmatic earthquake was measured near Coblenz, right within the Eiffel volcano field. It measured just M 2.6, but was one the strongest of the seldom events there since years
remarks: This does not mean the volcano is ready to blow" Just its hotspot became and is MORE active since years as the most worldwide hot spots are at the moment. Its known that also the activity in the probably deepest volcano system on earth, the Eiffel volcano field had increased towards the peak of the 26 the solar Sun spot cycle in 2012: The volcano only leaks CO2 to the surfaceand scientist pericately- since there is not any official surveillance there- had measured higher amounts of Co 2 rising up through the Laacher lake which is the crater/ remnant of the last known eruption about 11.000 B.C.
CANARY ISLANDS
Microquake activity on the outer Northeastern Rim of the old Canary caldera continued and increased over the past days. Indeed this new evolution started in early October 2015 and marks likely another way the hot magma in the underground can burst free to find empty space where it still can run to and expand and where there ius lower resistance than by the large coverage with sea sediments above, brought along by the strong sea currents around the islands.
The two quakes measured M 2 .The last had M 3.0. which is the highest magnitude since more than one year. My Conclusion; the magmatic intrusion is still continuingand the pressure on the top sediment layer of the caldera between the islands and the volcanic systems seems now significantly to increase what is an indicator for an likely explosive eruption on the surface anytime in the next future- possibly already towards the end of the year or within the first half of 2016, depending only on the question whether the magmatic intrusion from the hot spot continues or not.
Seismicity in the eastern part of the archipelago with two earthquakes, one of magnitude 3.0 and another in 2.7.-the first of the earthquakes has been on the west coast of fuerteventura this morning at midnight last night, while the second has Been located north of Lanzarote in the area of the chinijo archipelago one hour and forty minutes past noon at a depth of 15 km which has been marked in almost all of the stations of the archipelago....read more...
this section also refers to quake activities those typically occure since 2011 in a radius of 100- 200 km around the eifel volcano field, while the region in between stays rather calm. This typically indicates the possibiltiy of hot magma with in the area in between that radius where NO Seimic quakes occure .- Hot magma makes no seismic effects but causes tensions and seismic quakes just on its bondaries where it meets with colder rock formations. There are also regular microquakes along the river Rhine, thos are not respected here.
increased magmatic microquake activity ( since January 2014)
"C"
NOTICES: the swarm quake activity along the San Andreas fault had significantly increased in strength as well as in frequency since January- 04 2014. The swarm quake activity which as related to magma intrusion through the San Andreas fault is continuing since then on ausually low, but constant level . The r eport here will therefore be updated only , when the overall activity significantly increases or if the earthquake swarm activity shifts to other related regions near and along the San Andreas fault.
INCREASING ACTIVITY!
EPICENTER
20151026
intensifying ( most of the shocks ARE FELT ON THE SURFACE !!
yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values
*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report
ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT:
LATEST RELATED CME(SEP IMPACT
20140107/20140218-20/ 20140225
01- 04/ 14
EXPLANATIONS>
Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.
Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./
Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest SEP/ CME . Colors from orange to light red mark GRADUAL IMPACTS OF MULTIPLE CMEs CLUSTERS.
HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST>
INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions!
STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS
The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER a LATENCY period due to CME IMPACT on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES within the RED until the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Read "latency remarks"
REGIONS
REGION "A"
REGION "B"(1)
REGION "B"(2)
REGION "C"
REGION"
D"
REGION "E" (1)
REGION "E" (2)
REGION "F"
REGIONS COVERED BY LATEST CME IMPACT>
EASTERN EURASIA-- INDONESIA-WESTERN PACIFIC PHILIPPINES--AUSTRALIA WEST
JAPAN/EAST- AUSTRALIA/ (EAST), PNG. NZL
ALEUT./ KAMCHATKA- EASTERN PACIFIC/ HAWAII
WESTERN USA+ WEST COAST- EASTERN PACIFIC- CANADA-ALASKA
GULF OF MEXICO/ PANAMERICA/CA./ CENTRAL USA/ SOUTH - AMERICA- WEST
, EASTERN ATLANTIC/ (CANARIES/ ICELAND)- N & S- AMERICA/ EAST
CENTRAL (WEST) EUROPE/ AFRICA
INDIA & INDIAN OCEAN- CENTR: EURASIA, AFRICA (EAST), ARABIA ASIA MINOR
Several people have been killed in the southern Brazilian city of Mariana after two dams holding waste from an iron ore mine burst. A flood of slurry engulfed dozens of homes and buried vehicles.The mine is owned by Samarco, a joint venture between top iron ore mining companies: Brazil’s Vale and Australia’s BHP Billiton. Samarco said the reason why the dams burst has not yet been determined. BHP Billiton’s CEO told a news conference in Melbourne that a full assessment of casualties and damage had been hampered by darkness. Army units in Brazil were helping the search and rescue efforts on Friday.
(click here to see previous technical reports of the current month)
Two passengers were injured when a British Airways plane caught fire just before take off from McCarran International Airport in Las Vegas. Emergency shutes were deployed to evacuate the 159 passengers and 13 crew on board. Video and photographs showed the Boeing 777 engulfed in flames and a plume of thick black smoke coming from it.
A big low pressure area that was affecting Iberian Peninsula since November 1, 2015, has brought heavy downpours to many parts of Spain, causing river overflows and flash floods across the country. 4 people have been reported dead and another 5 injured, as of November 3.
Major floods hit parts of central and southeastern Texas, as of October 30, 2015, media reports. Several tornado events, some of which have yet to be confirmed, have been observed to inflict significant damage south and east of Houston, across the eastern Harris County and the cities of D'Hanis and Floresville. 6 people have died so far, and 2 have gone missing.
Severe thunderstorm accompanied with heavy rains continues to sweep Iberian Peninsula, as of November 1, 2015. Severe flooding claimed one life so far, in Algarve region, Portugal. The weather system is currently wreaking havoc across Spain, where severe flash floods are expected to follow, as well. A big low pressure field has brought intense rainfall to the Iberian Peninsula, starting November 1, when the rains caused flooding across southern Portugal.>>
(click here to see previous heavy weather reports of the current month)
A big low pressure area that was affecting Iberian Peninsula since November 1, 2015, has brought heavy downpours to many parts of Spain, causing river overflows and flash floods across the country. 4 people have been reported dead and another 5 injured, as of November 3.
Major floods hit parts of central and southeastern Texas, as of October 30, 2015, media reports. Several tornado events, some of which have yet to be confirmed, have been observed to inflict significant damage south and east of Houston, across the eastern Harris County and the cities of D'Hanis and Floresville. 6 people have died so far, and 2 have gone missing.
Severe thunderstorm accompanied with heavy rains continues to sweep Iberian Peninsula, as of November 1, 2015. Severe flooding claimed one life so far, in Algarve region, Portugal. The weather system is currently wreaking havoc across Spain, where severe flash floods are expected to follow, as well. A big low pressure field has brought intense rainfall to the Iberian Peninsula, starting November 1, when the rains caused flooding across southern Portugal.>>
TROPICAL STORMS/
note: from September 2014 on, this report will contain / collect only data about hurricanes with windspeeds above 50 MPH. For latest developing tropical storms, visit wunderground., com! datasets with a green background are hurricanes those are already over!
Saturday Nov 21, 2015 06:39 AM | BY: T The lava lake in the southern pit of the caldera, 30-40 meters in diameter, remains very active and approaches again levels close to overflowing the margins of the pit, being only a few meters below the floor of the caldera. A group of ours is currently there and we will have fresh news in about 10 days, but the following video likely from early November shows the current activity well:
The international airport on the holiday island of Bali closed on Wednesday, with hundreds of flights cancelled because of an ash cloud from an erupting volcano...Mount Rinjani on the nearby island of Lombok has been spewing ash since last weekend. “Tremors due to volcanic activities are continuously recorded and potential of more eruption is still high,” the meteorological agency said in a statement.... read more...
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(click here to see previous volcanism reports of the current month) including official reports (global volcanism program/ Smithsonian/ USGS
This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >
20141216: please note: NASA is currently reorganising their website contents: so all archived images , embedded contents and links posted on external websites such as mine will not work until NASA`s new website will be completed. If once completed- so NASA- all previous links will work again, resp lead/ forward automatically to the new pages. So long as this new website is under construction, NASA has "parked" all previous contents under the prefix "legacy-" So all previous linkred NASA contents can be found just by adding the word " legacy-" prior to the URL resp "www" : example: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/archive/current_month.html has to be changed into: http://legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/archive/current_month.html
(1.1.) LATEST AND CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL ALERTS
1.1.2. (related) NASA AND NOAA REAL TIME DATA PLOTS:
please note: this section is only updated after significant major events/ from Nov 2015 on, the text fields in the second row will contain all alerts of the current month as issued by NOAA
significant and still active previous measurements >
IMPORTANT REMARKS:
update: A major solar proton event (SEPO) began on 20151029 after 02 UTC: The source of the eruption was at or behind the eastern limb, where STEREO A noticed an explosionof hot gazes onthe solar surface the typical strong heat signature, by such a n SEP only becomes visible. The integral 10 Me Protons flux as well as > 100 MeV Protons at geostationarly orbit began to increase on 20151029 after 2:30 UTC both exceeding trashold.NOAA issued a speace weather alert.
1. 2. SOLAR EVENTS images and data:
images of one of the strongest proton events in decades on 20160618/ 20:/ STREO is no functional)
please note: this section is only updated after significant major events/ from Nov 2015 on, the text fields in the second row will contain all alerts of the current month as issued by NOAA
significant and still active previous measurements >
IMPORTANT REMARKS:
update: A major solar proton event (SEPO) began on 20151029 after 02 UTC: The source of the eruption was at or behind the eastern limb, where STEREO A noticed an explosionof hot gazes onthe solar surface the typical strong heat signature, by such a n SEP only becomes visible. The integral 10 Me Protons flux as well as > 100 MeV Protons at geostationarly orbit began to increase on 20151029 after 2:30 UTC both exceeding trashold.NOAA issued a speace weather alert.
1. 2. SOLAR EVENTS images and data:
images of one of the strongest proton events in decades on 20160618/ 20:/ STREO is no functional)
20150622:2 Fully halo CME after + M 5 flare in AR 12371 and 1^filament eruption afterwards 20150618: M3 event in AR 12371/ 20150619: filament eruption; 20150621: M flare - AR 12371
Impact of 2 FULLY HALO CMEs after M + 5 flare and filament eruption on 20150624- 25
update/ 20150626: AR 12371 is meanhile at about 60° West and will rotate out until the end of June. On June 26 however- AR 12371 produced another M 8 LDE event, which again was associated to an SEP. Integral proton flux rose again above 10 pfu after the event. The overall situation is of course very strange and difficult to predict : we have still an ongoing S1 protons storm but with > 2 MeV electrons exceeding 1.000 pfu. high electron values at the same time. The impact of the latest CME on June 25 was so strong, that it exceeded far the limits of the graphic
update: 20150622: NEW AND STRONG SEP EVENT!! STRONGEST SEP since September 2014
On 20150621, another stronger SEP followed the first one on June 18 and values are currently exceeding 100 pfu. what is a strong event. Unfortunately, both STEREO Satellites are not available, inoperative or damaged. Their objective can make infrared images of the sun and are therefor the only ones that can make it possible to localise from where about in the Sun and in which direction a SEP occured. The emitted protons are not visible on any telescope, but as they heat up and accelerate gases from the solar corona on that point where they break through it ( what leads to spectacular heat eruptions) these images make it possible to track back from where and at which time about the SEP was radially accelerated ( what for sure happens deeper within the sun , what makes them just totally different to any sun spot related flare activity which always occure on or near to the surface of the Sun)
At that time / sometime prior to 3 UTC) when the first SEP on June 18 occured, there is one hot flare and eruption visible on SoHOs LASCO 3 , which also covers the infrared spectrum. The AR producing the event is AR 12376 on the western solar limb. But no satellite has any image showing the eruption, that might have been the source of the second stronger SEP that occured then sometimes prior to 15 UTC on June 21 . So also the first theory might be false. and the complex structure with several fastly changing Coronal holes around AR 12371 might have been the source of both SEPs. The fact that this region was in an optimal earth facing position during the second SEP ( from where the radial emitted protons have then usually the highest speed up to almost light velocity) also explains why these protons have still no effect on the electron accumulation and flux : they just would be still too fast and therefore would circulate within the geomagnetic field around a wider polar orbit, where the don`t get in touch yet with the deeper laying and yet discharging electrons.
CHECKING out the activities on hot spot volcanoes after the event, first of all Sinabung but also the the canary hotspot seems ( due to my current knowledge) to be the only one those have reacted yet on that. Since June 21 , magmatic quakes near to the hot spot south of El Hierro itself increased again. On June 21, also ith 4 km below sea surface also the MOST shallow quake was registered below EL Teide and near to teneriffe since that new activity phase had begun in December 2013! Until June 25, here where two quakes more at the same location . But IGN couldn`t ( or does not want) tell in which depth these magmatic boosts have occured.Means nothing else thans that magma levels in the volcanic system below the Teide massive first time have reached a level of less than 4 km below sealavel- what is - AS I BELIEVE- very CRITICAL!
HOT SPOT BEHAVIOUR
NASA however published an image that seem to show a magnetic structure around AR 12371, which embraces a quarter of the Sun ( image 3 below)
20150618/ after 3:30 UTC: I have almost overseen that a new medium strong SEP event occured on this day. The density of integral protons rose sharply above 10 pfu soon after the event, dropped first back almost to normal levels late on June 21 ( 20150621) but remained than at an increased level of o.8- 1.0 pfu 24 hours later at time of this update ( 20150621). It can currently also be observed, that the intgegral electron flux and the protons flux are ate higher valires AT THE SAME time, But however: The electron flux is expected to drop on the next days (at least on the instruments) as active protons just neutralize the effects of electrons for a while ..
20150618: a new and unexpected large and active region (AR 12371) has rotated in on the Eastern limb: The AR contains many and relative large sun spots and developed three groups each with with a significant prenumbras, and produced several flares during the past day A major earth directed CME was unleashed during an explosive event that occured on 20150618 after 17: 50 UTC. Another fully halo (= earth directed) CME was produced, while the AR has reached the solar meridian and flaring in this region again exceeded M level on 20150621, shortly before this update. No of both M flares and cMEs was the source of both protons events as decribed above
on 20150619:a large filament eruption occured form the edge of the large Coronal hole just Southwest of Ar 12371 and produced another Earth direceted CME. so there are at least three major CME impacts excpected for June 21, 22 u and 23, those likely will cause major geomagnetic disturbances
20150606: the active sunspot group 12361/62 rotated in on the eastern limb and is producing major flares those are currently- due to the low background x ray flux still on c level but expected to increase in strength
VOLCANIC HOT SPOT ACTIVITIES/ MAGMATIC INTRUSION ()
PROTONS >
PROTON IMPACT AT SOUTHERN POLE CAUSES POLAR TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (- )
EFFECTING AS >
INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW
** estimated
EARTHQUAKES >
MICROQUAKES/ MAGMATIC INTRUSION(-)
SUBDUCTION (possible)
NOTES: ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 with green backgound is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below! 20140620: remark: Currently I am examining whether also electron accumulations effect on hot spot or surface volcanism
ELECTRONS
> 2.0 MeV Electron accumulation in Northern Hemisphere (+)
CIRCUMPOLAR TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (-) TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS, HEATWAVES, DROUGHTS ( NORTHERN HEMISPHERE ONLY) (-)
* latent potential for earthquakes with magnitudes higher than M 9.0! Some major catastrophic earthquake might likely happen, when effects of accumulated SEPs diminuish /.> 10 MeV electron accumulation will be neutralised, what is indicated , when electron energy suddenly will sharply drop at its end
20150914 > 2 MeV Electron near to 10.000 pfu! dropping
20150917: ( NOT SURE) POSSIBLE BEGIN OF PHASE III (electronn discharge) with expectabel strong earthquakes
GEOPHYSICAL EFFECTS:
GEOPHYSICAL EFFECTS:
GEOPHYSICAL EFFECTS:
SOLAR ACCELERATED AND EMMITTED PROTONS IMMIGRATE THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD AND ITS POLAR ORBIT
THE PROTONS CREATE AN ADDITIONAL GRAVITY PULL> THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ATTRACKTS AN EQUIVALENT OF ENERGETIC ELECTRONS FROM THE SOLAR MAGNETIC FIELTO NEUTRALISE THIS + CHARGE
AFTER THE PROTONS NOW ALSO ELECTRONS HAVE LOST THEIR CINETIC ENERGY THROUGH HEAT FRICTION. THE ACCUMULATION COLLAPSES THE EARTH MANTLE - PREVIOUSLY HEATED UP BY THE PROTON IMPACT and ELECTRON EFFECTS.- COOLS DOWN AND CONTRACTS AGAIN.
HEAT EFFECTS ON EARTH CORE AND MANTLE: VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES / MAINLY ON HOT SPOTS( SOUTH POLAR TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (-)
TORNADOES, THUNDERSTORMS, VOLCANIC SURFACE ACTIVITIES TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (m. northern Hemisphere)
> MAJOR AND potential CATASTROPHIC SUBDUCTION QUAKES with magnitudes (> M 8 or even > M 9 ) high enough to create a substantial and widespread Tsunami, if quakes occure subseas.
orange background= this effect is latent but currently not active
ADDITIONAL:
(2.0) ALL SOLAR / TERRESTRIAL (NEAR TO) REAL TIME DATA AND PLOTS:
HEAVY EARTHQUAKE FORECAST
update yourself!
!if the integral electron flux / plot below) should SUDDENLY SHARPLY DROP, STRONGER MAJOR SUBDUCTION EARTHQUAKES become most probable! (globally!) You won`t believe that? Then test it!
Rising integral proton (= proton stotrm) = magmatic and hot spot intrusion with minor earthquakes
( see " NASA earth observatory / land surface temperature anomalies above). The temperature anomalies on the Northern hemisphere became more intensive in February 2015 , with Hudson Bayas in the past years still representing the coldest area and with temperatures in Sibiria in Russia exceeeding those in central and Southern Europe. Part of this anomalies are created by solar SEPs . But scientists also noted an increased shifting of the magnetic poles. Noting the last available report it seems however unlikely, that the Northern magnetic pole shifts towards Siberia as this official report claimed. Its rather likely or seems so, that it has already mainly shifted into Hudson |Bay * where we also have the relatively coldest region on the Northern hemisphere since years. The phenomenon of megnetic field shifting is known since the 60th and was since then observed by a group of american researchers,whonfirst came to the conclusion that the Northern magnetic field would move with expontial speeed/means first just some centimeters per year , than meters ...( but the official scientist still said, that those fluctuations would be quite normal
A new study from the team behind NASA's Mars Science Laboratory/Curiosity has confirmed that Mars was once, billions of years ago, capable of storing water in lakes over an extended period of time.
Using data from the Curiosity rover, the team has determined that, long ago, water helped deposit sediment into Gale Crater, where the rover landed more than three years ago. The sediment deposited as layers that formed the foundation for Mount Sharp, the mountain found in the middle of the crater today.
"Observations from the rover suggest that a series of long-lived streams and lakes existed at some point between about 3.8 to 3.3 billion years ago, delivering sediment that slowly built up the lower layers of Mount Sharp," said Ashwin Vasavada, Mars Science Laboratory project scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, and co-author of the new Science article to be published Friday, Oct. 9.
Veröffentlicht am 03.10.2015 In the previous Space News episode, we discussed recent, astonishing images of the surface of the dwarf planet Pluto. Many other surprises have already been revealed in the data thus far released from NASA’s New Horizons mission. Today, physicist Eugene Bagashov discusses what we have learned thus far about Pluto’s atmosphere and the larger Plutonian environment.
NASA celebrates the successful mission of the NEW Horizon spacecraft , which reached the noputmostn planet Pluto on July 14- 2015 . New Horizon has sent first nearby images from the system, thos surely will by published in the coming days.... New Horizon is planned further to explore the Kuiper belt
Icy mountains on Pluto and a new, crisp view of its largest moon, Charon, are among the several discoveries announced Wednesday by NASA's New Horizons team, just one day after the spacecraft’s first ever Pluto flyby.
"Pluto New Horizons is a true mission of exploration showing us why basic scientific research is so important," said John Grunsfeld, associate administrator for NASA's Science Mission Directorate in Washington. "The mission has had nine years to build expectations about what we would see during closest approach to Pluto and Charon. Today, we get the first sampling of the scientific treasure collected during those critical moments, and I can tell you it dramatically surpasses those high expectations....read more...
previously published interesting pictures and articles :
for longer time I have not updated myself on the latest of NASA curiosity rover Mars mission. Now I found some articles with some indeed strange images Curiosity sent to Earth
3. The "crocodile" This nosy crocodile once fully turned into stone , when it lurked up to the sky , when obviously something strange happened, we might call " Medusa effect"
my favourite ones: parts of destroyed buildings? Stone figures similar to the ones found on Eastern islands:
A group of youtube people are just waiting for the next super high resolution image the rover sends home, most people as obviously also the NASA staff does oftenly not take much notice of. Curiosity`s images have such a high resolution that you can search and magnify on them each detail and its just incredible what people find on these images:
Just watch the video( right side): I just can`t prove whether the "vehicle" oin this photo might be a a fake!>
Beside the jokes made upon these discoveries like the video with " the green frog" that survived on Mars after its water channels had dried out, some of these dicoveries just knocked me out of my shoes. Best source for those images on youtube is the channel what`s up in the sky.
However: Its meanwhile in all news and obviously noone could approve yet , that those images would have been faked with an photo editing software!
SPECIAL REPORTS: FREAKY IMAGES & VIDEOS
VARIOUS:
data for this reports and forecasts are eclusively taken by reliable sources such as NASA, NOAA and others.
all forecasts are without guarantee! Alle Vorhersagen sind ohne Gewähr!
July 2014: note: as the solar sun spot activity is decreasing now, major events will get less at least until May June 2014 .Therefor, this project is also limited now to basic updates. In July 2014 I decided to update this page only after significant event and changes and to turn this page into an monthly page that will cover significant events and can be archived then in that form.
January 25- 2014:
2013, after 2 years after the second major> M 9 Earthquake had taken place within on decade and after two years of statistic evaluation and comparation of solar and terestrial data, it became clear , that socalled SEPS would be the solar feature I was looking , being that solar feature, that indeed can even have signifiant and even strongest related geophysical effects.
Now in early 2014, the peak off the sun spots cycle seems to be over and related activity visibly have decreased . I don`t expect many stronger and significant solar events for the next half year.
Recently I decided, to close the ongoing solar and terrestrial documentary at this point in this form , as it was made until now., whith complete data and event evaluation as its required for any scientific work . This I did to get this project to a point, that its results would be available and evaluable for further report and can be also a basic for further scientific research
Nevertheless as observations and evaluations have shown , that esp. the socalled SEPs ( solar events with proton emissions) are the almost only geoeffective known type of solar event) those do even have extremely strong and complex effects on the earth body , those only and best can be described just with the phrase- used by NASA- "theoretically can do everything". This is- since the usually seldom SEPs turned out to be the only solar activities those were in all cases coincident with major catastrophic earthquakes such as 2014 and 2011 - what this documentary now focusses on. SEPs however do happen MOST frequently during the maximum of the 11 years solar sun spot cycle (last in 2012(13) , but occure also in between but just in lower number.
So I will continue to watch over all these solar data and event and try to provide a full report and complete coverage in time if any furthe major event should take place ..
so the solar teerrestrial blog will be continued in another simplified and limited form:
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