According to NASA, this 24th. 11 year sun spot cycle has probably a " twin peak"- the second in 2015. This project therefore will be prolongued.
THE 11 YEAR SUN SPOT CYCLE-
LAST MAXIMUM ACTIVITY IN: 2012/ 13 NEXT: APPR. in 2024
SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG
- activities and major events-
ARCHIVE / SEPTEMBER 2015
note: as the solar sun spot activity is decreasing now, less major events are expected at least in the next years. (next cycle minimum expected in 2019)
.Therefor, this project is also limited now to basic updates. In July 2014 I decided to update this page only after significant event and changes and to turn this page into an monthly page that will cover significant events and can be archived then in that form.
research and documentary of the 24th solar cycle with evaluation of certain geoeffective Solar activities (esp. polarised rotating CMEs and SEPs) with coincident terrestrial events such as :
ESSENTIAL SOURCES ON SOLAR ACTIVITIES; Satellite Real Time images and data plots, weblinks etc....click here to expand and close the collapsible panel to read all..
SECTION: LATEST INFORMATION ON SOLAR ACTIVITIES
EVENT RELATED INTERPLANETARY & GEOMAGNETIC DATA PLOTS IMAGES OR VIDEO SOURCES:
(1) SOLAR REAL TIME / CURRENT SATELLITE DATA AND EVENTS
REAL TIME images links for current views on the sun surface- click to enlarge
HOW SOLAR ACTIVITY REPORTS ARE COMMONLY MADE:
SOLAR (NEAR) REAL TIME images as provided by satellites such as SDO, STEREO and SoHO are the first main source on Solar activity data: Various telescopes imaging different levels of frequencies can make sun spots, active regions visoiblöe as well as coronal holes and solar eruptions: solar prominences, flares and associated CMEs ( one exception are proton emissions those remain invisible on any usal imagery. Protons emissions and storms can be measured withe certain instruments instead ( GOES)
Second step is the interplanetary space and solar magnetic field . The Advanced Composition Explorer ( ACE) is "situated" on an geosynchronous orbit outside the geomagnetic field . This satellite has only measurement instruments onboard those deliver various data about the composition of the solar wind. Solar winds blow and circulate regularly through the interplanatary space . Coronal mass ejections and other extraordinary solar events eruptions throw large amounts of solar matter into the interplanetary space . ACE can deliver first data , how strong a possibly earth directed CME might be 1 - 2 days before those CMEs impact and answer the first primary question associated to any CME: Has the main CMEa positive or negative "POLARITY "-( =AN ESPECIAL - PROTON or ELECTRON charge)? means: is the incoming CME NEUTRAL, has it higher accelerated PROTONs or ELECTRONS. THis first question (which one of the two antagonists- the proton or electrons arrives first) determines whether a CME can fully impact into the geomagnetic field or almost NOT AT ALL!
Last not least, in the third step, the GEOSTATIONARY GOES SATELLITES measure what INDEED IMPACTS INTO THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD, basic for all space weather forecasts and forceasts as this one on my page, how strong EARTH DIRECTED CMES might unfluence nature and human civilisation!
-Go to "SOLAR CONTROL CENTER to find out more about these solar observatories or click on the many links on this page to get fisst hand informations!-
SOLAR REAL TIME SAT IMAGES :
note also: SDO, SOHO C3 and STEREO (360° VIEW°) REAL TIME IMAGES ON TOP OF THAT PAGE!
the Earth`s geomagnetic field electrons might defend the Earth even against CMEs from a X 10 flare, what poses the likely only danger , is the attack "from the other side" know as "protons events"
about:
ABOUT: SOLAR PROTON EMISSIONS (proton flares or storms etc. ) ARE RARE EVENTS . But- differently to the mostly of negative charged (electrons) CMEs , PROTON CMEs effect (finally by associated energetic events) until deep into the ground and the Earth`s interior. Proton emissions impact fully into the (negatively charged) geomagnetic field by their positive electric charge and add a positive component to it, what makes the geomag. field TEMPORARELY then also vulnerable especially for following negatively charged CMEs . The protons themselves have paradox effects: first they swallow many electrons (likely reacting with them to neutrons what causes first a "geomagnetic depression" with lower field density (lessactive, free electrons) and paradox ANTIENERGETIC effects (best describable as the "calm prior to the storm" ) .. read more in text box above
Long-range communications using high frequency (HF) radio waves (3 - 30 MHz) depend on reflection of the signals in the ionosphere. Radio waves are typically reflected near the peak of the F2 layer (~300 km altitude), but along the path to the F2 peak and back the radio wave signal suffers attenuation due to absorption by the intervening ionosphere.
Absorption is the process by which the energy of radio waves is converted into heat and electromagnetic (EM) noise through interactions between the radio wave, ionospheric electrons, and the neutral atmosphere (for a more extensive description of the absorption process see Davies, 1990). Most of the absorption occurs in the ionospheric D region (50–90 km altitude) where the product of the electron density and the electron-neutral collision frequency attains a maximum...
The precipitation of protons (as well as other ions) into the earth’s atmosphere during the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events can also create significant enhancements of ionospheric electron densities in the D region. Solar protons with energies between 1 to 200 MeV are primarily responsible for most of ionization of the D region and, consequently, for the ionospheric absorption of HF radio waves. Because of shielding of the earth by its magnetic field SEPs find easy access to the atmosphere only in high latitude regions around the earth’s geomagnetic poles. Such occurrences are therefore termed Polar Cap Absorption (PCA) events....read more...
CLICK HERE FOR INTERNATIONAL MEDIA AND NEWS SOURCES & OTHER EXTERNAL LINKS- DAILY NEWS FROM WHERE IT HAPPENS!..click here to expand and close the collapsible panel to read all..
NEWS CHANNELS:
( collecting of recommendable international news channels is still ongoing...): Note: This list is dedicated to get latest informations directly from regional news channels and sources all over the world . Alien-homepage does not take any responsibility for contents of websites posted on this list nor for their liability
(INTERNAL) find all known volcanoes worldwide on my internal GLOBAL VOLCANO MAPS - including webcams and other features- click here to expand and close the collapsible panel -
Some 68 sources of contamination by the bacterium Xylella fastidiosa have been identified on Corsica, according to a report by local officials. Known as the Olive Tree Killer, Xf was first discovered on the island in July.
Some 68 sources of contamination by the bacterium Xylella fastidiosa have been identified on Corsica, according to a report by local officials. Known as the Olive Tree Killer, Xf was first discovered on the island in July.
A heavy sand storm has hit many parts of the Middle East. Much of Jordan, Lebanon, Israel and Cyprus in clouds of dust. At least eight people have died as a result of the storm. Hundreds more have been hospitalised with breathing issues. People were warned to stay indoors. “We are suffering a lot, in an abnormal way,” said a man. “We are taking precautions as best we can by wearing masks, facing the garbage everywhere and traffic jams. It is not normal.” ...read more...
A powerful earthquake has hit central Chile, causing buildings to sway in the capital Santiago, officials say. The 8.3-magnitude tremor was centred off the coast, about 144 miles (232km) north-west of the capital. Five people are now known to have died, and one million residents have been evacuated from coastal areas. There were reports of panic in some cities. The earthquake produced waves of up to 4.5m (15ft) along the coast in the region of Coquimbo. The tremor struck at 19:54 local time (22:54 GMT), about 55km west of the city of Illapel, the US Geological Survey said. Officials said it was at the depth of about 10km (six miles)....read more
CHILE SEAQUAKE: CAUSED BY A SUBDUCTION OR BY A MAGMATIC INTRUSION??
INternal report /M 8.3 earthquake Chile: The Earthquake serial or strong swarm quake occurs near the Peru Chile trench and close to the Chilean Diamante caldera (the remnant of the MAIPO supervolcano) with its active volcanoes around. ( click here for map of Chile )
The trench reaches down to 8000 meters below sea level On its eastern side die Andes then reach more than 4000 meter high above sealevel what makes a total difference of more than 11.00 meters in altidude. In the language of the geologists, "trench" is the false term. Such a feature is called "oceanic depth" formed by convergance , while "trench" would mean a stretching zone . The Peru Chile trench however is defined and known to be a subduction zone, where the NASCA plate is submerged below the SA continental plate.
The mechanics of magma intrusion and subduction ( two opposite seismic acitivities those condition each other) there are not described exactly . Those earthquake are likely caused ( resp best imaginable) by holes, depression or caves ( resp.a defizit of magma in the earth mantle below those form out, by the fact, that magma is pressed upwards mainly through hot spots somwhere else or even nearby, when the earth mantle periodically or from time to time (such as by solar SEPs) becomes warmer. By the underpressure then at any time those caves collapse by a massive landmass such as the andes above which then suddenly sinks some deeper filling that hole (subduction) .
First I thought, the high electron flux/ accumulation caused by the extreme proton event on June 18 and 21now would come to their final discharge ( SEP phase III- what would be generally be accomponied then by strong subduction quakes as the heated up earth mantle cools down then and the earthcrust contracts ). But observing the electron flux during Sep 17 2015 first showed that the electrons were still high and near to 10.000 pfu. But then- on 20150919, the electrons indeed began sharply to drop again. Also this must be observed further to see what it is.
So if this is drop of the high electron flux again is not caused by solar wind streams, this earthquake might be just a prelude of a serial of stronger quakes those might/ will occure during the following weeks
So I first believed , this earthquake could have been caused by pressure of updwelling magma there or on a aneighbored oceanic ridge .The quake was on the landside of the trench, what rather speaks for the subductoin theory .
LATEST (KNOWN) TSUNAMI EVENTS:
RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:
note: the Tsunami report on this site here is for documentary but rather not up to date. For latest informations, check out: NOAA/ PTWC TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS
(click here to see previous earthquake reports of the current month)
Inh
LATEST (KNOWN) TSUNAMI EVENTS:
RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:
note: the Tsunami report on this site here is for documentary but rather not up to date. For latest informations, check out: NOAA/ PTWC TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS
Seismologists studying a year-long swarm of thousands of mostly minor earthquakes in northwest Nevada say they could be the precursor for a "big one," although speculation that they're related to a series of extinct volcanoes can't be ruled out. The University of Nevada's Reno Nevada Seismological Laboratory announced Tuesday that there have been 5,610 earthquakes in a swarm that started in July 2014 in the Sheldon National Wildlife Refuge near the Oregon border. More than 200 have registered at a magnitude of 3 or greater, which is enough to be felt by ranchers and residents nearby. The largest one hit on Nov. 6 with a magnitude of 4.7, although there's also been a recent flare-up since mid-July. "It's kind of usual that it has lasted so long," said Ken Smith, a seismologist. It's been a topic of discussion whether or not those quakes stem from the extinct volcanos in the Sheldon refuge collectively known as the High Rock Caldera, which is at least 15 million years old. That hasn't been conclusively ruled out yet, but Smith said there's no direct evidence of volcanic activity driving the earthquakes. To rule it out would require more seismic and geodetic measurements....read more...
RECENT HEADLINES:
6.4 Magnitude Quake Rocks Barbados - A strong earthquake struck Thursday in the ocean northeast of Barbados and was widely felt throughout the Caribbean, but officials said there were no immediate reports of damage or injuries.
Supermarkets and other businesses were evacuated and people moved away from the shore right after the quake hit. Earthquakes are common in the Caribbean but this was particularly strong and shallow. Residents were urged to be cautious, given the size of the quake. The US Geological Survey said the magnitude-6.4 quake was centered 81 miles (132 kilometers) northeast of Bridgetown at a shallow depth of about 3 miles (5 kilometers). It hit at 11:16 a.m. local time. (15:16 GMT).
The earthquake was felt across much of the Caribbean, from nearby St Visouth.ncent and the Grenadines and to Venezuela, Guyana and Trinidad in the
alt
PREVIOUS (KNOWN) TSUNAMI EVENTS:
RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:
note: the Tsunami report on this site here is for documentary but rather not up to date. For latest informations, check out: NOAA/ PTWC TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS
(internal) the initial quake occured on:2015-09-16 22:54:33.0 UTC and wqas followed by an intensive serial of strong afterquakes. there were 31 quakes until the time of this update with 19 quakes exceeeding M 5, 5 quakes exceeding M 6 and 1 exceeding M 7
this section also refers to quake activities those typically occure since 2011 in a radius of 100- 200 km around the eifel volcano field, while the region in between stays rather calm. This typically indicates the possibiltiy of hot magma with in the area in between that radius where NO Seimic quakes occure .- Hot magma makes no seismic effects but causes tensions and seismic quakes just on its bondaries where it meets with colder rock formations. There are also regular microquakes along the river Rhine, thos are not respected here.
increased magmatic microquake activity ( since January 2014)
"C"
NOTICES: the swarm quake activity along the San Andreas fault had significantly increased in strength as well as in frequency since January- 04 2014. The swarm quake activity which as related to magma intrusion through the San Andreas fault is continuing since then on ausually low, but constant level . The r eport here will therefore be updated only , when the overall activity significantly increases or if the earthquake swarm activity shifts to other related regions near and along the San Andreas fault.
yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values
*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report
ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT:
LATEST RELATED CME(SEP IMPACT
20140107/20140218-20/ 20140225
01- 04/ 14
EXPLANATIONS>
Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.
Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./
Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest SEP/ CME . Colors from orange to light red mark GRADUAL IMPACTS OF MULTIPLE CMEs CLUSTERS.
HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST>
INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions!
STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS
The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER a LATENCY period due to CME IMPACT on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES within the RED until the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Read "latency remarks"
REGIONS
REGION "A"
REGION "B"(1)
REGION "B"(2)
REGION "C"
REGION"
D"
REGION "E" (1)
REGION "E" (2)
REGION "F"
REGIONS COVERED BY LATEST CME IMPACT>
EASTERN EURASIA-- INDONESIA-WESTERN PACIFIC PHILIPPINES--AUSTRALIA WEST
JAPAN/EAST- AUSTRALIA/ (EAST), PNG. NZL
ALEUT./ KAMCHATKA- EASTERN PACIFIC/ HAWAII
WESTERN USA+ WEST COAST- EASTERN PACIFIC- CANADA-ALASKA
GULF OF MEXICO/ PANAMERICA/CA./ CENTRAL USA/ SOUTH - AMERICA- WEST
, EASTERN ATLANTIC/ (CANARIES/ ICELAND)- N & S- AMERICA/ EAST
CENTRAL (WEST) EUROPE/ AFRICA
INDIA & INDIAN OCEAN- CENTR: EURASIA, AFRICA (EAST), ARABIA ASIA MINOR
Two passengers were injured when a British Airways plane caught fire just before take off from McCarran International Airport in Las Vegas. Emergency shutes were deployed to evacuate the 159 passengers and 13 crew on board. Video and photographs showed the Boeing 777 engulfed in flames and a plume of thick black smoke coming from it.
(click here to see previous technical reports of the current month)
20150816: German TV reported Chinese authorities confirmed that a high amount of ammoniumnitrate was among the chemicals, which is( wikipedia ) a basic for fertilizer but also for explosives. During WW 1 it was the usual explosive. On 21. September 1921 happened at BASF in Ludwigshafen am Rhein/ Germany yet the largest explosion in history , when 4.5000 tons ammoniumnitrate exploded due to a failure when mixing it with other chemicals.So, this one was even bigger..But the question would be: what made it explosive then?.
EXPLOSION IN CHINESE PORT CITY TIANJIN HAD THE EQUIVALENCE OF 220 TONS TNT and TRIGGERED A > MAGNITUDE 4 EARTHQUAKE (internal)
This are the dimensions in a global player economy and production. What is still the same as at the begin of the industrial revolution - about 200 years ago- are the causes for those incidents: JUst and overvoltage in the power supply ( possibly even caused by the ongoing electron accumulation after one of the strongest solar proton events in the last decades had strucked the Earth on June 18 and 21 2015) could have heated up the spool inside the motor of a ventilator.
This device then ( this happened very often especially with the so called tube monitors ands I have no idea how an LCD monitor reacts on that) then starts to burn and before the fire is detected it has already incended high inflammable materials and all begions to burn like a fire stormAnd- as more recently Fukushima has told us: Most of industrial devices are still NOT SECURED against overvoltages!! ( and safety valves are available yet cheaply and in all sizes and quite common yet in privat households)
EXPLOSION IN CHINESE PORT CITY TIANJIN HAD THE EQUIVALENCE OF 220 TONS TNT and TRIGGERED A > MAGNITUDE 4 EARTHQUAKE (internal)
This are the dimensions in a global player economy and production. What is still the same as at the begin of the industrial revolution - about 200 years ago- are the causes for those incidents: JUst and overvoltage in the power supply ( possibly even caused by the ongoing electron accumulation after one of the strongest solar proton events in the last decades had strucked the Earth on June 18 and 21 2015) could have heated up the spool inside the motor of a ventilator.
This device then ( this happened very often especially with the so called tube monitors ands I have no idea how an LCD monitor reacts on that) then starts to burn and before the fire is detected it has already incended high inflammable materials and all begions to burn like a fire storm
And- as more recently Fukushima zhas told us: Most of industrial devices are still NOT SECURED against overvoltages!! ( and safety valves are available yet cheaply and in all sizes and quite common yet in privat households)
An ExxonMobil pipeline that runs under the Yellowstone River near Billings in south-central Montana ruptured and dumped an unknown amount of oil into the waterway, prompting temporary evacuations along the river Saturday morning.
Three major computer glitches in as many hours have hit the US, one of them shutting down the New York Stock Exchange.The halt in trading at 11:30 local time has been described as unprecedented in its scale.. Earlier United Airlines temporarily grounded all of its flights due to a technical problem. The Wall Street Journal website also crashed.
So far there is no indication of a link between the three incidents, but investigations are underway at each location. President Obama has been briefed on the NYSE shutdown and the White House was due to make a statement. The US Department of Homeland Security said there was no indication of anything “malicious” at the NYSE.
As we approach the peak of hurricane season, 2015 continues to underwhelm in terms of tropical cyclone intensity across the Atlantic, though we’re a bit ahead of schedule on the number of named storms. From 1966 to 2009, the median date for the seventh named storm was September 16. This year’s #7 system was downgraded to Tropical Depression Grace with the 11 am EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center..
Linda surges to Category 3 strength
Making the most of a favorable environment that won’t last long, Hurricane Linda rapidly intensified to Category 3 strength on Tuesday morning, becoming the fifth major hurricane of 2015 in the Northeast Pacific. Linda’s top sustained winds were 120 mph in the 11 am EDT Tuesday advisory from NHC. Linda’s strength will be no match for the increasingly cool waters and stable air that lie ahead of the hurricane on its northwestward track, which will run parallel to and about 300 miles west of Baja California.
Etau approaches Japan; Kilo heads for Siberia Tropical Storm Etau will bring heavy rains and wind to the Japanese island of Honshu, including Tokyo, as it sweeps through on Tuesday night (Wednesday morning local time). More than 120,000 people have been advised to evacuate. Etau should make landfall near the city of Nagoya
Residents of the Cape Verde islands are going through a rare experience today--a hurricane warning--as Tropical Storm Fred intensifies in the far eastern North Atlantic. As of 2:00 pm EDT, Fred was located near 14.1°N, 20.7°W, or about 195 miles east of the Cape Verde capital city of Praia. Outer rainbands are already beginning to reach the islands. The National Hurricane Center upgraded the storm from Invest 99L to Tropical Storm Fred in its 5:00 am EDT advisory, when it was located at 18.9°W longitude.
The Atlantic's most terrifying and destructive hurricanes typically start as tropical waves that move off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verde islands. This class of storms is referred to as "Cape Verde hurricanes", in reference to their origin.Despite the fact that the Atlantic's most feared type of hurricanes are named after the Cape Verde islands, the islands themselves rarely receive significant impacts from one of their namesake storms. This is because tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa have very little time to organize into tropical storms before arriving at the Cape Verde islands, which lie just 350 miles west of the African coast.
(click here to see previous heavy weather reports of the current month)
Residents of the Cape Verde islands are going through a rare experience today--a hurricane warning--as Tropical Storm Fred intensifies in the far eastern North Atlantic. As of 2:00 pm EDT, Fred was located near 14.1°N, 20.7°W, or about 195 miles east of the Cape Verde capital city of Praia. Outer rainbands are already beginning to reach the islands. The National Hurricane Center upgraded the storm from Invest 99L to Tropical Storm Fred in its 5:00 am EDT advisory, when it was located at 18.9°W longitude.
The Atlantic's most terrifying and destructive hurricanes typically start as tropical waves that move off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verde islands. This class of storms is referred to as "Cape Verde hurricanes", in reference to their origin.Despite the fact that the Atlantic's most feared type of hurricanes are named after the Cape Verde islands, the islands themselves rarely receive significant impacts from one of their namesake storms. This is because tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa have very little time to organize into tropical storms before arriving at the Cape Verde islands, which lie just 350 miles west of the African coast.
A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the eastern Hawaiian islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai, Kahoolawe, and Hawaii (the Big Island), with Ignacio located about 420 miles east of Hilo as of 8:00 am HST (2:00 pm EDT) Sunday. Ignacio is packing winds of 130 mph, but its steady northwest track will take it well north of the islands.
A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the eastern Hawaiian islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai, Kahoolawe, and Hawaii (the Big Island), with Ignacio located about 420 miles east of Hilo as of 8:00 am HST (2:00 pm EDT) Sunday. Ignacio is packing winds of 130 mph, but its steady northwest track will take it well north of the islands...read more...
weather- underground/ 20150828: Current tropical storms:(CURRENTLY NO HRRICANES WITH WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 70 MPH)
weather-underground/ 20150818: Twin typhoons raking the open waters of the Northwest Pacific Two intense, well-structured typhoons are churning their way toward Asia, posing no immediate threat to large land areas. Typhoon Goni, which surged to Category 4 strength on Sunday, has weakened somewhat as a result of an eyewall replacement cycle, although Goni remains a powerful, well-structured system. Now packing top 1-minute sustained winds of 115 mph, Category 3 Goni was located near 18.7°N, 132.9°E at 1200 GMT Tuesday, moving due west at about 18 mph. Typhoon Atsani is the tortoise to Goni’s hare: though it developed more slowly than Goni, it is now more powerful, with top 1-minute sustained winds of 140 mph. At 1200 GMT Tuesday, Category 4 Atsani was located near 17.0°N, 154.8°E, moving northwest at about 9 mph. Goni is currently traveling near waters that were left slightly cooler in the wake of Typhoon Soudelor, which peaked at Category 5 strength in this region less than two weeks ago.
Strong ridges over China and over the Northwest Pacific east of Japan will help keep Goni traveling on a due-west track until late this week, when the typhoon may attempt to recurve in between ridges. The latest JTWC outlook has recurvature occuring on a northward track just east of Taiwan, which would put the island on Goni’s weaker left-hand side; that would be good news for a population still reeling from Typhoon Soudelor. Meanwhile, Atsani is already traveling over rich oceanic heat content, and with upper-level shear relatively weak, Atsani is predicted in the latest JTWC outlook to reach Category 5 strength (around 160 mph) before recurvature and weakening begin over the weekend. It appears likely that Atsani will recurve before reaching Japan, but residents should not let their guard down just yet.
TROPICAL STORMS/
note: from September 2014 on, this report will contain / collect only data about hurricanes with windspeeds above 50 MPH. For latest developing tropical storms, visit wunderground., com! datasets with a green background are hurricanes those are already over!
Current Volcano Alert Level: ADVISORY
Previous Volcano Alert Level: NORMAL
Current Aviation Color Code: YELLOW
Previous Aviation Color Code: GREEN
Issued: Friday, September 18, 2015, 10:23 PM PDT (20150919/0523Z) Source: Hawaiian Volcano Observatory Notice Number: 2015/H2 Location: N 19 deg 28 min W 155 deg 36 min Elevation: 13681 ft (4170 m) Area: HI Hawaii and Pacific Ocean
Volcanic Activity Summary: HVO seismic stations continue to record elevated rates of shallow, small-magnitude earthquakes beneath Mauna Loa’s summit, upper Southwest Rift Zone, and west flank. For at least the past year, the rate of shallow earthquakes has varied but overall has remained above the long-term average. During this same time period, HVO has measured ground deformation consistent with recharge of the volcano’s shallow magma storage system. Together, these observations indicate the volcano is no longer at a background level of activity. Accordingly, HVO is elevating the Mauna Loa alert level to ADVISORY and the aviation color code to YELLOW.
Aso, one of the more dangerous volcanoes in Japan, had an explosive eruption today. Based on webcam (see above) and news footage of the volcano, Aso produced a large, dark-grey plume of ash and volcanoes gases around 9:45 AM (Japan local time). The area around Aso was already on heightened alert status, so no injuries and fatalities have been reported so far after this explosion. However, tourists near the volcano (see below) have been evacuated at the alert status raised to Level 3, meaning no one is allowed near Aso. Flights to airports near Aso on Kyushu have also been diverted. The JMA webcam (14th from bottom) pointed at Aso shows only a white steam plume as of 11:20 AM local time in Japan, so this eruption appears to have been fairly brief....read more...
Explosions of small to moderate size continue to occur from time to time at the volcano, such as the one on the attached photo from yesterday, taken by Hernando Rivera.
Current Volcano Alert Level: ADVISORY
Previous Volcano Alert Level: NORMAL
Current Aviation Color Code: YELLOW
Previous Aviation Color Code: GREEN
Issued: Friday, September 18, 2015, 10:23 PM PDT (20150919/0523Z) Source: Hawaiian Volcano Observatory Notice Number: 2015/H2 Location: N 19 deg 28 min W 155 deg 36 min Elevation: 13681 ft (4170 m) Area: HI Hawaii and Pacific Ocean
Volcanic Activity Summary: HVO seismic stations continue to record elevated rates of shallow, small-magnitude earthquakes beneath Mauna Loa’s summit, upper Southwest Rift Zone, and west flank. For at least the past year, the rate of shallow earthquakes has varied but overall has remained above the long-term average. During this same time period, HVO has measured ground deformation consistent with recharge of the volcano’s shallow magma storage system. Together, these observations indicate the volcano is no longer at a background level of activity. Accordingly, HVO is elevating the Mauna Loa alert level to ADVISORY and the aviation color code to YELLOW.
Aso, one of the more dangerous volcanoes in Japan, had an explosive eruption today. Based on webcam (see above) and news footage of the volcano, Aso produced a large, dark-grey plume of ash and volcanoes gases around 9:45 AM (Japan local time). The area around Aso was already on heightened alert status, so no injuries and fatalities have been reported so far after this explosion. However, tourists near the volcano (see below) have been evacuated at the alert status raised to Level 3, meaning no one is allowed near Aso. Flights to airports near Aso on Kyushu have also been diverted. The JMA webcam (14th from bottom) pointed at Aso shows only a white steam plume as of 11:20 AM local time in Japan, so this eruption appears to have been fairly brief....read more...
Explosions of small to moderate size continue to occur from time to time at the volcano, such as the one on the attached photo from yesterday, taken by Hernando Rivera.
Activity at the volcano remains more or less similar with moderately strong, near continuous ash emissions producing a plume rising approx. 2 km and drifting into westerly directions.
The Institute of Geophysics of the Polytechnic University reported that the volcanic activity has remained similar to that of the last past days. The evaporative emissions have contained a high presence of ashes which have reached up to 2000 meters over the crater and has been directed towards the West and Southwest side of the volcano.
Throughout the day volcano ash emissions continued to fall in the areas of Tanicuchi, Guaytacama, Chugchilán, Isinlivi, Mulaló, Lasso, Joseguango, Pastocalle and El Chasqui. Due to reports of ash fall over roads and highways the Ministry of Transport and Public Work has recommended the public to drive with caution and to not exceed a speed limit of 30 kilometers per hour.
Continuing with contingency plans, on Saturday night, the Secretary of Risk Management (SGR) coordinated an evacuation drill in the parish of Puerto Napo, district of Tena. While on Sunday, it trained 150 people from Barrio Centro, in the parish of Aláquez, district of Latacunga, and 129 people in the Libertad Bajo Joseguango parish. An evacuation drill was also conducted with 143 people in Quisinche Alto, the parish of Mulaló—Latacunga. Finally the authorities also gave out 1,280 clinical masks in Tanicuhí and 6,160 in Toacazo.... read more...
Two larger rocks got lose on a fragile formation on El Hierro: the impact on the road below caused damages on the road and a water piple below and was measured by seismographs. AVCAN rules out, that the event was NOT caused by any earthquake.
On August 18 and 19 two quakes were measured as well on Teneriffe and El Hierro from a depth of now and first time just 3 km, after last similar events about two month ago came from 5 km depth (analog to that, previous events were in 6,7 and 9 km depth!). The cause for the microquakes is therefore likely magma rising up by and by since 2014 with a rate of about 1 km in 1- 2 month.
With a depth of less than 4 km, the magma accumulating within the old caldera between the islnads ( reaching up to 3.700 m below sealevel) reaches more and more critical levels and would now already more and more be pressent/ filling up the islands basements and volcano systems.
So- if the rockfall on August 22 was NOT caused by a quakes it may have been caused by water /increasing humidity , resp steam under pressure from the uprising magma (internal report)
This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >
20141216: please note: NASA is currently reorganising their website contents: so all archived images , embedded contents and links posted on external websites such as mine will not work until NASA`s new website will be completed. If once completed- so NASA- all previous links will work again, resp lead/ forward automatically to the new pages. So long as this new website is under construction, NASA has "parked" all previous contents under the prefix "legacy-" So all previous linkred NASA contents can be found just by adding the word " legacy-" prior to the URL resp "www" : example: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/archive/current_month.html has to be changed into: http://legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/archive/current_month.html
(1.1.) LATEST AND CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL ALERTS
1.1.2. (related) NASA AND NOAA REAL TIME DATA PLOTS:
significant and still active previous measurements >
IMPORTANT REMARKS:
20150826: active region 12403 produced numerous flares during it passed over the solar disc. While none of these flares produced a significant CME, a stronger filament eruption on 20150826 after 19 UTC caused a major geomagnetic storm upon its arrival. I have tracked back AR 12403 to November 2014 when a very active region on the same solar coordinates ( the only region that produced flares and even Xclass flares throughout 2014) last time appeared named as AR 12222 (image 3 below). It maybe that this nested region just dived deeper a into the sun hull for the last half year and is reaapearing now again on the surface.
20150816: a filament eruption on 20160814 has ejected positive charged solar gazes those caused a minor geomagnetic storm upon their arrival on earth on 20150816.
1. 2. SOLAR EVENTS images and data:
images of one of the strongest proton events in decades on 20160618/ 20:/ STREO is no functional)
20150826: active region 12403 produced numerous flares during it passed over the solar disc. While none of these flares produced a significant CME, a stronger filament eruption on 20150826 after 19 UTC caused a major geomagnetic storm upon its arrival. I have tracked back AR 12403 to November 2014 when a very active region on the same solar coordinates ( the only region that produced flares and even Xclass flares throughout 2014) last time appeared named as AR 12222 (image 3 below). It maybe that this nested region just dived deeper a into the sun hull for the last half year and is reaapearing now again on the surface.
20150816: a filament eruption on 20160814 has ejected positive charged solar gazes those caused a minor geomagnetic storm upon their arrival on earth on 20150816.
1. 2. SOLAR EVENTS images and data:
images of one of the strongest proton events in decades on 20160618/ 20:/ STREO is no functional)
20150622:2 Fully halo CME after + M 5 flare in AR 12371 and 1^filament eruption afterwards 20150618: M3 event in AR 12371/ 20150619: filament eruption; 20150621: M flare - AR 12371
Impact of 2 FULLY HALO CMEs after M + 5 flare and filament eruption on 20150624- 25
update/ 20150626: AR 12371 is meanhile at about 60° West and will rotate out until the end of June. On June 26 however- AR 12371 produced another M 8 LDE event, which again was associated to an SEP. Integral proton flux rose again above 10 pfu after the event. The overall situation is of course very strange and difficult to predict : we have still an ongoing S1 protons storm but with > 2 MeV electrons exceeding 1.000 pfu. high electron values at the same time. The impact of the latest CME on June 25 was so strong, that it exceeded far the limits of the graphic
update: 20150622: NEW AND STRONG SEP EVENT!! STRONGEST SEP since September 2014
On 20150621, another stronger SEP followed the first one on June 18 and values are currently exceeding 100 pfu. what is a strong event. Unfortunately, both STEREO Satellites are not available, inoperative or damaged. Their objective can make infrared images of the sun and are therefor the only ones that can make it possible to localise from where about in the Sun and in which direction a SEP occured. The emitted protons are not visible on any telescope, but as they heat up and accelerate gases from the solar corona on that point where they break through it ( what leads to spectacular heat eruptions) these images make it possible to track back from where and at which time about the SEP was radially accelerated ( what for sure happens deeper within the sun , what makes them just totally different to any sun spot related flare activity which always occure on or near to the surface of the Sun)
At that time / sometime prior to 3 UTC) when the first SEP on June 18 occured, there is one hot flare and eruption visible on SoHOs LASCO 3 , which also covers the infrared spectrum. The AR producing the event is AR 12376 on the western solar limb. But no satellite has any image showing the eruption, that might have been the source of the second stronger SEP that occured then sometimes prior to 15 UTC on June 21 . So also the first theory might be false. and the complex structure with several fastly changing Coronal holes around AR 12371 might have been the source of both SEPs. The fact that this region was in an optimal earth facing position during the second SEP ( from where the radial emitted protons have then usually the highest speed up to almost light velocity) also explains why these protons have still no effect on the electron accumulation and flux : they just would be still too fast and therefore would circulate within the geomagnetic field around a wider polar orbit, where the don`t get in touch yet with the deeper laying and yet discharging electrons.
CHECKING out the activities on hot spot volcanoes after the event, first of all Sinabung but also the the canary hotspot seems ( due to my current knowledge) to be the only one those have reacted yet on that. Since June 21 , magmatic quakes near to the hot spot south of El Hierro itself increased again. On June 21, also ith 4 km below sea surface also the MOST shallow quake was registered below EL Teide and near to teneriffe since that new activity phase had begun in December 2013! Until June 25, here where two quakes more at the same location . But IGN couldn`t ( or does not want) tell in which depth these magmatic boosts have occured.Means nothing else thans that magma levels in the volcanic system below the Teide massive first time have reached a level of less than 4 km below sealavel- what is - AS I BELIEVE- very CRITICAL!
HOT SPOT BEHAVIOUR
NASA however published an image that seem to show a magnetic structure around AR 12371, which embraces a quarter of the Sun ( image 3 below)
20150618/ after 3:30 UTC: I have almost overseen that a new medium strong SEP event occured on this day. The density of integral protons rose sharply above 10 pfu soon after the event, dropped first back almost to normal levels late on June 21 ( 20150621) but remained than at an increased level of o.8- 1.0 pfu 24 hours later at time of this update ( 20150621). It can currently also be observed, that the intgegral electron flux and the protons flux are ate higher valires AT THE SAME time, But however: The electron flux is expected to drop on the next days (at least on the instruments) as active protons just neutralize the effects of electrons for a while ..
20150618: a new and unexpected large and active region (AR 12371) has rotated in on the Eastern limb: The AR contains many and relative large sun spots and developed three groups each with with a significant prenumbras, and produced several flares during the past day A major earth directed CME was unleashed during an explosive event that occured on 20150618 after 17: 50 UTC. Another fully halo (= earth directed) CME was produced, while the AR has reached the solar meridian and flaring in this region again exceeded M level on 20150621, shortly before this update. No of both M flares and cMEs was the source of both protons events as decribed above
on 20150619:a large filament eruption occured form the edge of the large Coronal hole just Southwest of Ar 12371 and produced another Earth direceted CME. so there are at least three major CME impacts excpected for June 21, 22 u and 23, those likely will cause major geomagnetic disturbances
20150606: the active sunspot group 12361/62 rotated in on the eastern limb and is producing major flares those are currently- due to the low background x ray flux still on c level but expected to increase in strength
ORANGE BACKGROUND= " LATENCY" MEANS: THESE EFFECTS ARE LATENT AND EXPECTABLE , BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER UNLIKELY
SEP AND SOLAR IMPACT RELATED FORECAST
ALERT LEVEL
NOTICES:
ALERT LEVEL
TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE SEP EFFECTS:
active electrons/ minor proton event( <10 pfu.)
ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES TODAY
ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)
REMARKS AND/ OR PROBABILITY
20150917: observing the electron flux during Sep 17 2015 showed that the electrons are still high and near to 10.000 pfu. on September 19 they dropped again due to influences of solar emissions
ELECTRON ACCUMULATION( POSSIBLE FAILURES OF MICROELECTRONICS> AIR TRAFFIC?) INDUCTION OF HIGH CURRENTS AND VOLTAGES (POWER GRIDS A.O.) (-)
20150622: > 10 MeV Protons > 1.000 pfu!
further outlook:
SUDDEN MELTDOWN OF PERMAICE including METHANHYDRATES (MAGMATIC)
M 5.5. - > M 9.0 ( latent)
3 (SUBDUCTION )
FINAL ELECTRON DISCHARGE (expectable end of sep 2015/ pending!!)
SEP EFFECTS:
PROTONS OR + ION IMPACT : ELECTRON DEPRESSION (-)
ABOUT LATENCIES:
HOT SPOTS >
VOLCANIC HOT SPOT ACTIVITIES/ MAGMATIC INTRUSION (-)
* latent potential for earthquakes with magnitudes higher than M 9.0! Some major catastrophic earthquake might likely happen, when effects of accumulated SEPs diminuish /.> 10 MeV electron accumulation will be neutralised, what is indicated , when electron energy suddenly will sharply drop at its end
PROTONS >
PROTON IMPACT AT SOUTHERN POLE CAUSES POLAR TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (only low )
EFFECTING AS >
INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW
** estimated
EARTHQUAKES >
MICROQUAKES/ MAGMATIC INTRUSION) HIGHER
SUBDUCTION QUAKES (pending !)
NOTES: ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 with green backgound is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below! 20140620: remark: Currently I am examining whether also electron accumulations effect on hot spot or surface volcanism
ELECTRONS >
> 2.0 MeV Electron accumulation in Northern Hemisphere (fluctuating )
CLIMATE WEATHER >
CIRCUMPOLAR TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (-) TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS, HEATWAVES, DROUGHTS ( NORTHERN HEMISPHERE ONLY) (-)
20150914 > 2 MeV Electron near to 10.000 pfu! dropping
20150917: ( NOT SURE) POSSIBLE BEGIN OF PHASE III (electronn discharge) with expectabel strong earthquakes
GEOPHYSICAL EFFECTS:
GEOPHYSICAL EFFECTS:
GEOPHYSICAL EFFECTS:
SOLAR ACCELERATED AND EMMITTED PROTONS IMMIGRATE THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD AND ITS POLAR ORBIT
THE PROTONS CREATE AN ADDITIONAL GRAVITY PULL> THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ATTRACKTS AN EQUIVALENT OF ENERGETIC ELECTRONS FROM THE SOLAR MAGNETIC FIELTO NEUTRALISE THIS + CHARGE
AFTER THE PROTONS NOW ALSO ELECTRONS HAVE LOST THEIR CINETIC ENERGY THROUGH HEAT FRICTION. THE ACCUMULATION COLLAPSES THE EARTH MANTLE - PREVIOUSLY HEATED UP BY THE PROTON IMPACT and ELECTRON EFFECTS.- COOLS DOWN AND CONTRACTS AGAIN.
HEAT EFFECTS ON EARTH CORE AND MANTLE: VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES / MAINLY ON HOT SPOTS( SOUTH POLAR TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (-)
TORNADOES, THUNDERSTORMS, VOLCANIC SURFACE ACTIVITIES TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (m. northern Hemisphere)
> MAJOR AND potential CATASTROPHIC SUBDUCTION QUAKES with magnitudes (> M 8 or even > M 9 ) high enough to create a substantial and widespread Tsunami, if quakes occure subseas.
orange background= this effect is latent but currently not active
ADDITIONAL:
(2.0) ALL SOLAR / TERRESTRIAL (NEAR TO) REAL TIME DATA AND PLOTS:
HEAVY EARTHQUAKE FORECAST
update yourself!
!if the integral electron flux / plot below) should SUDDENLY SHARPLY DROP, STRONGER MAJOR SUBDUCTION EARTHQUAKES become most probable! (globally!) You won`t believe that? Then test it!
Rising integral proton (= proton stotrm) = magmatic and hot spot intrusion with minor earthquakes
( see " NASA earth observatory / land surface temperature anomalies above). The temperature anomalies on the Northern hemisphere became more intensive in February 2015 , with Hudson Bayas in the past years still representing the coldest area and with temperatures in Sibiria in Russia exceeeding those in central and Southern Europe. Part of this anomalies are created by solar SEPs . But scientists also noted an increased shifting of the magnetic poles. Noting the last available report it seems however unlikely, that the Northern magnetic pole shifts towards Siberia as this official report claimed. Its rather likely or seems so, that it has already mainly shifted into Hudson |Bay * where we also have the relatively coldest region on the Northern hemisphere since years. The phenomenon of megnetic field shifting is known since the 60th and was since then observed by a group of american researchers,whonfirst came to the conclusion that the Northern magnetic field would move with expontial speeed/means first just some centimeters per year , than meters ...( but the official scientist still said, that those fluctuations would be quite normal
NASA's Dawn spacecraft has been taking some close looks at the surface of the dwarf planet Ceres in the asteroid belt, and it has spotted some astonishing features beyond just the bright white spots -- and one of them is a pyramid that looks like the one in Egypt. The weirdness of Ceres just keeps growing as Dawn takes closer peaks of it on ensuing flybys, and NASA posted its latest video on Thursday, according to a CNET report. It's a high mountain too, rising even higher than Mt. McKinley, the highest peak in the USA at 20,000 feet. There also appear to be bright streaks going down the pyramid's sides. The Dawn mission has also been taking a closer look at those bright spots that scientists have been scratching their heads over. They sit inside a crater that measures about 60 miles in width and is about 2 miles of depth. However, scientists aren't any closer at identifying what they are or what causes them.
NASA celebrates the successful mission of the NEW Horizon spacecraft , which reached the noputmostn planet Pluto on July 14- 2015 . New Horizon has sent first nearby images from the system, thos surely will by published in the coming days.... New Horizon is planned further to explore the Kuiper belt
Icy mountains on Pluto and a new, crisp view of its largest moon, Charon, are among the several discoveries announced Wednesday by NASA's New Horizons team, just one day after the spacecraft’s first ever Pluto flyby.
"Pluto New Horizons is a true mission of exploration showing us why basic scientific research is so important," said John Grunsfeld, associate administrator for NASA's Science Mission Directorate in Washington. "The mission has had nine years to build expectations about what we would see during closest approach to Pluto and Charon. Today, we get the first sampling of the scientific treasure collected during those critical moments, and I can tell you it dramatically surpasses those high expectations....read more...
previously published interesting pictures and articles :
for longer time I have not updated myself on the latest of NASA curiosity rover Mars mission. Now I found some articles with some indeed strange images Curiosity sent to Earth
3. The "crocodile" This nosy crocodile once fully turned into stone , when it lurked up to the sky , when obviously something strange happened, we might call " Medusa effect"
my favourite ones: parts of destroyed buildings? Stone figures similar to the ones found on Eastern islands:
A group of youtube people are just waiting for the next super high resolution image the rover sends home, most people as obviously also the NASA staff does oftenly not take much notice of. Curiosity`s images have such a high resolution that you can search and magnify on them each detail and its just incredible what people find on these images:
Just watch the video( right side): I just can`t prove whether the "vehicle" oin this photo might be a a fake!>
Beside the jokes made upon these discoveries like the video with " the green frog" that survived on Mars after its water channels had dried out, some of these dicoveries just knocked me out of my shoes. Best source for those images on youtube is the channel what`s up in the sky.
However: Its meanwhile in all news and obviously noone could approve yet , that those images would have been faked with an photo editing software!
SPECIAL REPORTS: FREAKY IMAGES & VIDEOS
VARIOUS:
data for this reports and forecasts are eclusively taken by reliable sources such as NASA, NOAA and others.
all forecasts are without guarantee! Alle Vorhersagen sind ohne Gewähr!
July 2014: note: as the solar sun spot activity is decreasing now, major events will get less at least until May June 2014 .Therefor, this project is also limited now to basic updates. In July 2014 I decided to update this page only after significant event and changes and to turn this page into an monthly page that will cover significant events and can be archived then in that form.
January 25- 2014:
2013, after 2 years after the second major> M 9 Earthquake had taken place within on decade and after two years of statistic evaluation and comparation of solar and terestrial data, it became clear , that socalled SEPS would be the solar feature I was looking , being that solar feature, that indeed can even have signifiant and even strongest related geophysical effects.
Now in early 2014, the peak off the sun spots cycle seems to be over and related activity visibly have decreased . I don`t expect many stronger and significant solar events for the next half year.
Recently I decided, to close the ongoing solar and terrestrial documentary at this point in this form , as it was made until now., whith complete data and event evaluation as its required for any scientific work . This I did to get this project to a point, that its results would be available and evaluable for further report and can be also a basic for further scientific research
Nevertheless as observations and evaluations have shown , that esp. the socalled SEPs ( solar events with proton emissions) are the almost only geoeffective known type of solar event) those do even have extremely strong and complex effects on the earth body , thos only and best can be descroved described just with the phrase "theoretically can do everything". This is- since SEPs turned out to be the possible cause also for catastrophic earthquakes such as 2014 and 2011 - what this documentary now focussed on. SEPs however do happen MOST frequently during the maximum of the 11 years solar sun spot cycle (last in 2012(13) , but occure also in between but just in lower number.
So I will continue to watch over all these solar data and event and try to provide a full report and complete coverage in time if any furthe major event should take place ..
so the solar teerrestrial blog will be continued in another simplified and limited form:
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