According to NASA, this 24th. 11 year sun spot cycle has probably a " twin peak"- the second in 2015. This project therefore will be prolongued.
THE 11 YEAR SUN SPOT CYCLE-
LAST MAXIMUM ACTIVITY IN: 2012/ 13 NEXT: APPR. in 2024
SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG
- activities and major events-
ARCHIVE- JANUARY 2016
note: as the solar sun spot activity is decreasing now, less major events are expected at least in the next years. (next cycle minimum expected in 2019)
.Therefor, this project is also limited now to basic updates. In July 2014 I decided to update this page only after significant event and changes and to turn this page into an monthly page that will cover significant events and can be archived then in that form.
for basic informations about this project scroll down to the bottom of this page!
research and documentary of the 24th solar cycle with evaluation of certain geoeffective Solar activities (esp. polarised rotating CMEs and SEPs) with coincident terrestrial events such as :
ESSENTIAL SOURCES ON SOLAR ACTIVITIES; Satellite Real Time images and data plots, weblinks etc....click here to expand and close the collapsible panel to read all..
SECTION: LATEST INFORMATION ON SOLAR ACTIVITIES
EVENT RELATED INTERPLANETARY & GEOMAGNETIC DATA PLOTS IMAGES OR VIDEO SOURCES:
(1) SOLAR REAL TIME / CURRENT SATELLITE DATA AND EVENTS
REAL TIME images links for current views on the sun surface- click to enlarge
HOW SOLAR ACTIVITY REPORTS ARE COMMONLY MADE:
SOLAR (NEAR) REAL TIME images as provided by satellites such as SDO, STEREO and SoHO are the first main source on Solar activity data: Various telescopes imaging different levels of frequencies can make sun spots, active regions visoiblöe as well as coronal holes and solar eruptions: solar prominences, flares and associated CMEs ( one exception are proton emissions those remain invisible on any usal imagery. Protons emissions and storms can be measured withe certain instruments instead ( GOES)
Second step is the interplanetary space and solar magnetic field . The Advanced Composition Explorer ( ACE) is "situated" on an geosynchronous orbit outside the geomagnetic field . This satellite has only measurement instruments onboard those deliver various data about the composition of the solar wind. Solar winds blow and circulate regularly through the interplanatary space . Coronal mass ejections and other extraordinary solar events eruptions throw large amounts of solar matter into the interplanetary space . ACE can deliver first data , how strong a possibly earth directed CME might be 1 - 2 days before those CMEs impact and answer the first primary question associated to any CME: Has the main CMEa positive or negative "POLARITY "-( =AN ESPECIAL - PROTON or ELECTRON charge)? means: is the incoming CME NEUTRAL, has it higher accelerated PROTONs or ELECTRONS. THis first question (which one of the two antagonists- the proton or electrons arrives first) determines whether a CME can fully impact into the geomagnetic field or almost NOT AT ALL!
Last not least, in the third step, the GEOSTATIONARY GOES SATELLITES measure what INDEED IMPACTS INTO THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD, basic for all space weather forecasts and forceasts as this one on my page, how strong EARTH DIRECTED CMES might unfluence nature and human civilisation!
-Go to "SOLAR CONTROL CENTER to find out more about these solar observatories or click on the many links on this page to get fisst hand informations!-
SOLAR REAL TIME SAT IMAGES :
note also: SDO, SOHO C3 and STEREO (360° VIEW°) REAL TIME IMAGES ON TOP OF THAT PAGE!
the Earth`s geomagnetic field electrons might defend the Earth even against CMEs from a X 10 flare, what poses the likely only danger , is the attack "from the other side" know as "protons events"
about:
ABOUT: SOLAR PROTON EMISSIONS (proton flares or storms etc. ) ARE RARE EVENTS . But- differently to the mostly of negative charged (electrons) CMEs , PROTON CMEs effect (finally by associated energetic events) until deep into the ground and the Earth`s interior. Proton emissions impact fully into the (negatively charged) geomagnetic field by their positive electric charge and add a positive component to it, what makes the geomag. field TEMPORARELY then also vulnerable especially for following negatively charged CMEs . The protons themselves have paradox effects: first they swallow many electrons (likely reacting with them to neutrons what causes first a "geomagnetic depression" with lower field density (lessactive, free electrons) and paradox ANTIENERGETIC effects (best describable as the "calm prior to the storm" ) .. read more in text box above
Long-range communications using high frequency (HF) radio waves (3 - 30 MHz) depend on reflection of the signals in the ionosphere. Radio waves are typically reflected near the peak of the F2 layer (~300 km altitude), but along the path to the F2 peak and back the radio wave signal suffers attenuation due to absorption by the intervening ionosphere.
Absorption is the process by which the energy of radio waves is converted into heat and electromagnetic (EM) noise through interactions between the radio wave, ionospheric electrons, and the neutral atmosphere (for a more extensive description of the absorption process see Davies, 1990). Most of the absorption occurs in the ionospheric D region (50–90 km altitude) where the product of the electron density and the electron-neutral collision frequency attains a maximum...
The precipitation of protons (as well as other ions) into the earth’s atmosphere during the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events can also create significant enhancements of ionospheric electron densities in the D region. Solar protons with energies between 1 to 200 MeV are primarily responsible for most of ionization of the D region and, consequently, for the ionospheric absorption of HF radio waves. Because of shielding of the earth by its magnetic field SEPs find easy access to the atmosphere only in high latitude regions around the earth’s geomagnetic poles. Such occurrences are therefore termed Polar Cap Absorption (PCA) events....read more...
CLICK HERE FOR INTERNATIONAL MEDIA AND NEWS SOURCES & OTHER EXTERNAL LINKS- DAILY NEWS FROM WHERE IT HAPPENS!..click here to expand and close the collapsible panel to read all..
NEWS CHANNELS:
( collecting of recommendable international news channels is still ongoing...): Note: This list is dedicated to get latest informations directly from regional news channels and sources all over the world . Alien-homepage does not take any responsibility for contents of websites posted on this list nor for their liability
(INTERNAL) find all known volcanoes worldwide on my internal GLOBAL VOLCANO MAPS - including webcams and other features- click here to expand and close the collapsible panel -
The five sperm whales which beached on the Dutch Wadden Sea island of Texel have all died overnight as expected, marine experts said on Wednesday. The whales were spotted in difficulty close to the shore on Tuesday and rescue efforts continued until midnight, without success. It is extremely unusual for so many whales to be in Dutch waters, a spokesman for the Ecomare marine centre told local paper Noordhollands Dagblad. The area of beach where the whales were was closed to the public, to minimise the distress to the animals. Read more at DutchNews.nl: Beached sperm whales die on Dutch island overnight ...read more...
Clean-up has begun on the island of Wangerooge, off the northern coast of Germany, after two sperm whales were stranded on its beaches earlier this week. The mammals have arrived in Wilhelmshaven on the mainland last night and are waiting in the port for dissection, so that scientists could uncover the cause of death. It comes as a pod of 12 whales were discovered dead on or off the coast of the Dutch island of Texel and the German islands of Wangerooge and Helgoland this week. ...read more...
Residents across Florida are Severe thunderstorms, including three confirmed tornadoes, struck Florida early Sunday morning, killing at least two people, injuring several others and knocking out power to 100,000 homes statewide, authorities said. Manatee County Sheriff Brad Steube said two people, a man and a woman, were killed and four children have been hospitalized after their mobile home was destroyed in Duette by an EF-2 tornado. The two deaths are the first tornado-related fatalities in the state since 2012, during Tropical Storm Debby....read more...
Five French soldiers have been killed in an avalanche while on a training exercise in the Alps. The avalanche came down close to Valfrejus, not far from the Italian border, where some 50 soldiers were training off-piste.
(click here to see previous natural incident reports of the current month)
Heavy snowfall blanketed parts of Finland on January 12, 2016. Huge amounts of snow, blizzard conditions and cold temperatures caused traffic disruptions, closures and delays across the country. The large snowstorm that hit southern and central Finland caused substantial trouble to roads and public transportation. Finnish state rail company VR canceled some of its local and long distance routes before the event while the Finnish Transport Safety Agency (Trafi) increased road and rail system maintenance.
> temperature pattern in Northern hemisphere (severe. weather. com)>>
A powerful winter cyclone — the same storm that led to two tornado outbreaks in the United States and disastrous river flooding — has driven the North Pole to the freezing point this week, 50 degrees above average for this time of year. From Tuesday evening to Wednesday morning, a mind-boggling pressure drop was recorded in Iceland: 54 millibars in just 18 hours. This triples the criteria for “bomb” cyclogenesis, which meteorologists use to describe a rapidly intensifying mid-latitude storm. A “bomb” cyclone is defined as dropping one millibar per hour for 24 hours....read more...
Widespread flooding across Paraguay, Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil over the last 7 days forced more than 150 000 people to evacuate their homes and claimed 6 lives so far. The floods are the worst to hit the area in the last 50 years, according to the local authorities. A few days of persistent heavy rainfalls are thought to be enhanced by the El Nino weather phenomenon. The rains caused three large rivers in the region to swell with water.The worst hit has been the state of Paraguay where 130 000 people have been evacuated and a state of emergency was in effect on December 27, 2015. Strong winds in combination with heavy rainfall have damaged almost 200 electricity poles causing power outages across the area. 4 people have been reported dead due to fallen trees....read more...
LOS ANGELES — California Gov. Jerry Brown declared a state of emergency over a massive natural-gas leak that has been spewing methane and other gases into a Los Angeles neighborhood for months, sickening residents and forcing thousands to evacuate. In a statement, Brown said Wednesday that he acted based on the requests of people in the community of Porter Ranch and the "prolonged and continuing" nature of the gas blowout at the underground storage facility.
(internal report/ 20151229) increase of Microquake activity within San Andreas fault greater Los Angeles area:
Likely caused by the proton events and electron accumulations, going on since about 2012, the magmatic microquake activity had begun significantly to increase especially after January 2014 and fluctuates since then around the same level. NOw after the preious proton event, microquake activity esp in the Los angeles area again increased in number aas well as magnitude: All 4 microquajkes were felt on th surface and described by witnesses as "short, but stronger than measured" or "like a M 6 quake":
The San Andreas fault is in general a spreading zone through which - similar to a hot spot- magma can rise up, depending on the temperatures in the Earth mantle. This- if it happens- is called magma intrusion, which is generally accomponied by "inflation" effects: The gravitational difference lead to an expansion of magma rising up from the earth mantle - a natural force so strong that it can heap a up entire landscapes, islands or mountains as well it can cause large movements of tectonic plates. At the same time- similar to a refrigerator- the expanding magma gets hotter and hotter, while surging upwards for what it needs and sucks more heat from then earth mantle ( the term "hot spot" derives from that fact, that these openings get hotter than the surounding earth mantle by these effects.) The problem is less that magma might at any time reach the surface ( magma flow): Its rather; what happens if the earth mantekl cools down again? Undergound structures might collapse e again and the tectonic crust suddenly sink depper. a precess commonly known as " subduction:
(Witness location : El Cotillo (Spain) (15 km NE from epicenter): "It sounded like a large vehicle had crashed into our building. There was a loud bang, like a thunder clap and the building shook"
Witness location : La Oliva (Spain) (16 km NE from epicenter): "Deep rumbling and vibration for 5 to 8 seconds..."
Witness location : Corralejo (Spain) (29 km NE from epicenter): "Felt nothing in Corralejo, Fuerteventura"
ASSOCIATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:
RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:
note: the Tsunami report on this site here is for documentary but rather not up to date. For latest informations, check out: NOAA/ PTWC TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS
(click here to see the report of the latestknown previous TSUNAMI EVENT
Inh
LATEST (KNOWN) TSUNAMI EVENTS:
RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:
note: the Tsunami report on this site here is for documentary but rather not up to date. For latest informations, check out: NOAA/ PTWC TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS
note: the Tsunami report on this site here is for documentary but rather not up to date. For latest informations, check out: NOAA/ PTWC TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS
20151122:Microquake activity in Yellowstone region increases: >>
Microquakes > M 2 directly in the yellowstone caldera are usually rather seldom and occured yet not oftener than 1 or 2 per year. 5 microquakes with magnitidues higher than 2. 0 were measured now in November 2015. On Nov 22 for the first time- two one after another on one day:
At the same time, microquake activity also has increased in the region of the hot spot of the Canary islands. However some of the stronger quakes were felt by the people in EL Hierro, but there is still no visible sign of any surface eruption yet...
this section also refers to quake activities those typically occure since 2011 in a radius of 100- 200 km around the eifel volcano field, while the region in between stays rather calm. This typically indicates the possibiltiy of hot magma with in the area in between that radius where NO Seimic quakes occure .- Hot magma makes no seismic effects but causes tensions and seismic quakes just on its bondaries where it meets with colder rock formations. There are also regular microquakes along the river Rhine, thos are not respected here.
increased magmatic microquake activity ( since January 2014)
"C"
NOTICES: the swarm quake activity along the San Andreas fault had significantly increased in strength as well as in frequency since January- 04 2014. The swarm quake activity which as related to magma intrusion through the San Andreas fault is continuing since then on ausually low, but constant level . The r eport here will therefore be updated only , when the overall activity significantly increases or if the earthquake swarm activity shifts to other related regions near and along the San Andreas fault.
Greater Los Angeles Area >
20151229: increase after proton event >
EPICENTER
20151026
intensifying ( most of the shocks ARE FELT ON THE SURFACE !!
yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values
*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report
ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT:
LATEST RELATED CME(SEP IMPACT
20140107/20140218-20/ 20140225
01- 04/ 14
EXPLANATIONS>
Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.
Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./
Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest SEP/ CME . Colors from orange to light red mark GRADUAL IMPACTS OF MULTIPLE CMEs CLUSTERS.
HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST>
INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions!
STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS
The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER a LATENCY period due to CME IMPACT on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES within the RED until the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Read "latency remarks"
REGIONS
REGION "A"
REGION "B"(1)
REGION "B"(2)
REGION "C"
REGION"
D"
REGION "E" (1)
REGION "E" (2)
REGION "F"
REGIONS COVERED BY LATEST CME IMPACT>
EASTERN EURASIA-- INDONESIA-WESTERN PACIFIC PHILIPPINES--AUSTRALIA WEST
JAPAN/EAST- AUSTRALIA/ (EAST), PNG. NZL
ALEUT./ KAMCHATKA- EASTERN PACIFIC/ HAWAII
WESTERN USA+ WEST COAST- EASTERN PACIFIC- CANADA-ALASKA
GULF OF MEXICO/ PANAMERICA/CA./ CENTRAL USA/ SOUTH - AMERICA- WEST
, EASTERN ATLANTIC/ (CANARIES/ ICELAND)- N & S- AMERICA/ EAST
CENTRAL (WEST) EUROPE/ AFRICA
INDIA & INDIAN OCEAN- CENTR: EURASIA, AFRICA (EAST), ARABIA ASIA MINOR
An intense thunderstorm accompanied with strong winds and dust passed through Melbourne on January 13, 2016. The storm covered the city in a cloud of dust which lasted about 10 to 20 minutes, reducing visibility in the area. Power outages and damaged buildings have been reported across the affected area. Dry conditions prevailing in the region over the last couple of days now combined with damaging winds and kicked up the dust in the city, according to the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) senior forecaster Richard Carlyon. The storm hit the between 6 and 6.30 pm (local time), after which cooler weather conditions settled in...read more...
RAW: The moment the dust storm rolled in across Mildura earlier today. Video from 7 News viewer Lisa Miki.Latest from 7 News: http://yhoo.it/1HYefMw7 News video: http://yhoo.it/1V97pbWLatest news on Twitter: twitter.com/7NewsMelbourne
Several people have been killed in the southern Brazilian city of Mariana after two dams holding waste from an iron ore mine burst. A flood of slurry engulfed dozens of homes and buried vehicles.The mine is owned by Samarco, a joint venture between top iron ore mining companies: Brazil’s Vale and Australia’s BHP Billiton. Samarco said the reason why the dams burst has not yet been determined. BHP Billiton’s CEO told a news conference in Melbourne that a full assessment of casualties and damage had been hampered by darkness. Army units in Brazil were helping the search and rescue efforts on Friday.
Two passengers were injured when a British Airways plane caught fire just before take off from McCarran International Airport in Las Vegas. Emergency shutes were deployed to evacuate the 159 passengers and 13 crew on board. Video and photographs showed the Boeing 777 engulfed in flames and a plume of thick black smoke coming from it.
LATEST MAJOR TROPICAL STORMS & HEAVY WEATHERS
(click here to see previous heavy weather reports of the current month)
A big low pressure area that was affecting Iberian Peninsula since November 1, 2015, has brought heavy downpours to many parts of Spain, causing river overflows and flash floods across the country. 4 people have been reported dead and another 5 injured, as of November 3.
Major floods hit parts of central and southeastern Texas, as of October 30, 2015, media reports. Several tornado events, some of which have yet to be confirmed, have been observed to inflict significant damage south and east of Houston, across the eastern Harris County and the cities of D'Hanis and Floresville. 6 people have died so far, and 2 have gone missing.
Severe thunderstorm accompanied with heavy rains continues to sweep Iberian Peninsula, as of November 1, 2015. Severe flooding claimed one life so far, in Algarve region, Portugal. The weather system is currently wreaking havoc across Spain, where severe flash floods are expected to follow, as well. A big low pressure field has brought intense rainfall to the Iberian Peninsula, starting November 1, when the rains caused flooding across southern Portugal.>>
TROPICAL STORMS/
note: from September 2014 on, this report will contain / collect only data about hurricanes with windspeeds above 50 MPH. For latest developing tropical storms, visit wunderground., com! datasets with a green background are hurricanes those are already over!
Egon (Flores): An eruption warning remains in place. Increased sulfur smells have been noted from the volcano which had been raised to second highest alert on 13 Jan.
According to local news, evacuation of 3 villages at the feet of the volcano are taking place and so far, 1200 people have been relocated and 2000 dust masks have been distributed (in case of ash emissions). The exclusion zone around Mt Egon volcano is 3 km radius from its summit only (but in case of a larger eruption, this should be drastically increased, especially around rivers draining from the mountain.)
< webcam Erta Ale (Danakil depression, Ethiopia): The lava lake of Erta Ale has overflown, our correspondents from Ethiopia reported. The first lava over-spilled the rim of the containing crater at midnight of 15-16 Jan 2016. It seems that the situation is similar to the spectacular events inNovember/December 2010 when the lava lake last overflowed.
Sinabung (Sumatra, Indonesia):(16 Jan) A moderately strong explosion occurred earlier today from the volcano, producing an ash plume that rose approx. 2 km.
xx
(click here to see previous volcanism reports of the current month) including official reports (global volcanism program/ Smithsonian/ USGS
A strong vulcanian explosion occurred yesterday at 12:10 local time at the volcano. An ash plume rose approx 3 km from the summit and generated a small pyroclastic flow....read more
During our ongoing Volcano Special tour, the volcano continued to produce explosive eruptions of small to moderate size at irregular intervals ranging between 2-8 hours. ...more
Vorgestern Nacht ereignete sich aus der „Salinelle dello Stadio“ bei Paternò eine größere Schlammeruption. Abseits der bekannten Schlammpools öffneten sich Förderschlote im Hof eines angrenzenden Hauses. Es wurde sehr viel Schlamm gefördert, der sich durch die Straßen wälzte.
This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >
20141216: please note: NASA was recently again reorganising their website contents: So- some many or even all elder archived images , embedded contents and links posted on external websites such as mine will maybe not work anymore . Updates are made in this report as soon as available, but i just cant look all trough to update the links. Thus: here just the links to the current NASA plot archives: NASA( space weather plots as archived since 1966
(1.1.) LATEST AND CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL ALERTS
1.1.2. (related) NASA AND NOAA REAL TIME DATA PLOTS:
click here for more REAL TIME FEATURES (NASA satellite data)
(2.0) ALL SOLAR / TERRESTRIAL (NEAR TO) REAL TIME DATA AND PLOTS:
HEAVY EARTHQUAKE FORECAST
update yourself!
!if the integral electron flux / plot below) should SUDDENLY SHARPLY DROP, STRONGER MAJOR SUBDUCTION EARTHQUAKES become most probable! (globally!) You won`t believe that? Then test it!
Rising integral proton (= proton stotrm) = magmatic and hot spot intrusion with minor earthquakes
( see " NASA earth observatory / land surface temperature anomalies above). The temperature anomalies on the Northern hemisphere became more intensive in February 2015 , with Hudson Bayas in the past years still representing the coldest area and with temperatures in Sibiria in Russia exceeeding those in central and Southern Europe. Part of this anomalies are created by solar SEPs . But scientists also noted an increased shifting of the magnetic poles. Noting the last available report it seems however unlikely, that the Northern magnetic pole shifts towards Siberia as this official report claimed. Its rather likely or seems so, that it has already mainly shifted into Hudson |Bay * where we also have the relatively coldest region on the Northern hemisphere since years. The phenomenon of megnetic field shifting is known since the 60th and was since then observed by a group of american researchers,whonfirst came to the conclusion that the Northern magnetic field would move with expontial speeed/means first just some centimeters per year , than meters ...( but the official scientist still said, that those fluctuations would be quite normal
please note: this section is only updated after significant major events/ from Nov 2015 on, the text fields in the second row will contain all alerts of the current month as issued by NOAA
Type II and IV radio emissions and 10 cm Radio bursts
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event
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Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2 Serial Number: 1037 Issue Time: 2016 Jan 15 0324 UTC ALERT: Type II Radio
Emission Begin Time: 2016 Jan 15 0241 UTC Estimated Velocity: 550 km/s
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Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2 Serial Number: 1036 Issue Time: 2016 Jan 01 2355 UTC ALERT: Type II Radio Emission Begin Time: 2016 Jan 01 2322 UTC Estimated Velocity: 1019 km
. Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4 Serial Number: 523 Issue Time: 2016 Jan 01 2355 UTC ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission Begin Time: 2016 Jan 01 2324 UTC www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
latest CME event data and plots (current month)
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click here for latest GOES hp plots and data (current month):
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geomagnetic storms:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
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Space Weather Message Code: WATA20 Serial Number: 698 Issue Time: 2016 Jan 09 2047 UTC WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day: Jan 10: None (Below G1) Jan 11: None (Below G1) Jan 12: G1 (Minor) THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
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Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04 Serial Number: 1847 Issue Time: 2016 Jan 07 0000 UTC ALERT: s
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 Threshold Reached: 2016 Jan 06 2359 UTC Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC Active Warning: Ye
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Space Weather Message Code: WARK04 Serial Number: 2757 Issue Time: 2016 Jan 01 1341 UTC EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Extension to Serial Number: 2756 Valid From: 2015 Dec 31 0030 UTC Now Valid Until: 2016 Jan 01 2100 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence
click here for phase III alerts
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click here for latest electron event data (current month)
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ELECTRON FLUX
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.
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20160128 > 2.0 MeV Electron flux disturbance below after + CME impact
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20160124 after CME impact> 2.0 MeV Electron flux dropping below 1.000pfu !
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Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3 Serial Number: 2320 Issue Time: 2016 Jan 24 0503 UTC CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2319 Begin Time: 2016 Jan 22 1325 UTC Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 4118 pfu
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Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3 Serial Number: 2318 Issue Time: 2016 Jan 22 1341 UTC
ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu Threshold Reached: 2016 Jan 22 1325 UTC Station: GOES13
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Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3 Serial Number: 2316 Issue Time: 2016 Jan 17 0846 UTC CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2315 Begin Time: 2016 Jan 13 1420 UTC Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 4799 pfu
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Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3 Serial Number: 2313 Issue Time: 2016 Jan 14 0936 UTC CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2312 Begin Time: 2016 Jan 13 1420 UTC Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 3055 pfu .
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Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3 Serial Number: 2309 Issue Time: 2016 Jan 09 0536 UTC
CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu Continuation of Serial Number: 2308 Begin Time: 2016 Jan 01 2035 UTC Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 5725 pfu
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Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3 Serial Number: 2303 Issue Time: 2016 Jan 03 0716 UTC
CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu Continuation of Serial Number: 2302 Begin Time: 2016 Jan 01 2035 UTC Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 4113 pfu
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Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
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ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2016 Jan 01 2035 UTC
Station: GOES1
click here for latest proton event data (current month
2016
January
PROTON EVENTS
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events/ activity changes
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencie
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Space Weather Message Code: ALTPX1 Serial Number: 314 Issue Time: 2016 Jan 02 0446 UTC ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu Begin Time: 2016 Jan 02 0430 UTC NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor .
20160129:solar flare activity is currently low, but increased over the past days again with some B and C flares on the Western limb-mainly in AR 12488-with two associated but minor CMEs( see mimages 1- 3 below), some filament activities and a wide prominence in an unspotted region below AR 1248. The activity might by the prelude for another proton event(SPE) to come.
20160124: an major CME impacted after 6 UTC pushing the geomagnetic field density shortly above 150.nT . ACE epam shows an increase in the interplanetary proton flux along with the event, what is the reason , why the high electrons values at that time dropped below 1.000pfu.
20160101/ after 22 UTC: AR produced another extraordinary large LDE with a peaking after 23: 28 ( see images SDO 1, 2 below). The event was following a major SEP from the eastern solar limb , that became visible on Stereo Ahead on 20160101after 23:30 UTC. GOES measured a proton enhancement arriving on 20160102 / shortly after 00 UTC in the geomagnetic orbit .Therefor protons had a speed of 71333km/sec . the impact lasted notmore than two days and peaked with 12pfu.
20151228: what might become the begin of a new serial of solar proton events began on 20151228 after 10 UTC / event on STEREO) . > 2.0 MeV proton flux reaching the geomagnetic orbit after 14 UTC did not exceed 10.pfu. (for more details: see collapsible panel below). Usually flares are not necessarily the source for those SEPs, but are rather associated with and triggered by SPE as as secondary surface eruptions. However: STEREO Ahead spacecraft, which has the only infrared telescope on which the source for SEPs ( the gases accelerated and heated up by a SEP ) become visible has not transfered yet images of the event . So, the event can be deeper analysed localised, when these images will be available. If the LDE flare in AR 12437 (peaking shortly after 00 UTC on Jan 02) was the source for this proton eevent , protons however would have had a speed near to the speed of light, as protons arrived on the geomag. orbit about at the same time ( shortly after 00 UTC on Jan., 02
^partial halo CME beginning on 20150101/ after 23:40 UTC
SEP outburst on 20160102/ atshortly after 23:30 UTC -images were updated after transmission had resumed-
^LDE flare in AR on 20160102 / peaking around 00: 10 UTC
^first protons arriving at geomagnetic orbit on 20150102/ shortly after 00 UTC
^global proton impact heat absorption during proton event on 20160102 after oo UTC
click here for images and data of previous major solar and terrestrial events
1. 2. SOLAR EVENTS images and data:
JANUARY 2016
significant solar events /descriptions:
20160124: an major CME impacted after 6 UTC pushing the geomagnetic field density shortly above 150.nT . ACE epam shows an increase in the interplanetary proton flux along with the event, which is the reason , why electrons at that time fell below 1.000pfu.
20160101/ after 22 UTC: AR produced another extraordinary large LDE with a peaking after 23: 28 ( see images SDO 1, 2 below). The event was associated with a proton enhancement measured by GOES arriving in the geomagnetic orbit after : the impact is ongoing, exceeeds now already 10 pfu. but has not yet reacjhed its peak level
20151228: what might become the begin of a new serial of solar proton events began on 20151228 after 10 UTC / event on STEREO) . > 2.0 MeV proton flux reaching the geomagnetic orbit after 14 UTC did not exceed 10.pfu. (for more details: see collapsible panel below). Usually flares are not necessarily the source for those SEPs, but are rather associated with and triggered by SPE as as secondary surface eruptions. However: STEREO Ahead spacecraft, which has the only infrared telescope on which the source for SEPs ( the gases accelerated and heated up by a SEP ) become visible has not transfered yet images of the event . So, the event can be deeper analysed localised, when these images will be available. If the LDE flare in AR 12437 (peaking shortly after 00 UTC on Jan 02) was the source for this proton eevent , protons however would have had a speed near to the speed of light, as protons arrived on the geomag. orbit about at the same time ( shortly after 00 UTC on Jan., 02
^LDE flare in AR on 20160102 / peaking around 00: 10 UTC
^first protons arriving at geomagnetic orbit on 20150102/ shortly after 00 UTC
> M 2 flare in AR 12437 on 20150102/ shortly after 00 UTC
SEP outburst on 20160102( images wer eupdated aftertranmission jhad resumed
^partial halo CME beginning on 20150101/ after 23:40 UTC
^global proton impact heat absorption during proton event on 20160102 after oo UTC
PREVIOUS MAJOR SOLAR EVENTS images and data:
DECEMBER 2015:
significant solar events descriptions:
20151228: A new short solar proton event occured on 20151228 shortly after 10 UTC. First protons arrived at STEREO AHEAD at 1209:07 UTC . Proton enhancement in the geomagnetic orbit was registered by GOES on 20151228 after 1s UTC. ITs not over yet but > 10 MeV proton integral flux yet not exceeded 10 pfu. The new proton event (SEP) will first intensify magmaintrusion from hot spots. With the expected electron accumulation temperature anomalies on the Northern hemisphere are likely to continue. If the proton storm should not exceed 10 pfu. these effects are likely to be not every strong
20151223: flare activity was very low over the past 3 month and increased no untypically higher just during the winter soltice ( when it was rather most calm in the past years) AR 12470 is past week the only major visible sun spotspot group on the solar disc but was not very active . On 20151222 , AR 12473 and 121472 appeared on the eastern solar limb . AR 12473 is larger in sunspots and is also very active in producing C flares . On December 23 , after 00:40 it produced a M4.7 flare with a radio burst and a major CME heading towards the Southeast which has some earth directed components, those will arrive around Dec 25. AR 12473 will accompony us for the next 20 days and could produce some more major events during that time. It might also be a candidate for a major SEP
20151218: Several filament eruptions were observed on the Sun, those ejected positive charger matter into space and towards the Earth. The impact on 20151220 was unexpected strong and caused a major geomagnetic storm . The geomagnetic field density ( hp values) on December 20 exceeded 200 nT ( nanoTesla)
1. 2. SOLAR EVENTS images and data:
images of one of the strongest proton events in decades on 20160618/ 20:/ STREO is no functional)
VOLCANIC HOT SPOT ACTIVITIES/ MAGMATIC INTRUSION ()
PROTONS >
PROTON IMPACT AT SOUTHERN POLE /INCREASING EARTH MANTLE TEMPERATURE
NOTES: ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 with green background is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable -. * Earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!
CIRCUMPOLAR TEMPERATURE PARADOX ANOMALIES (-), HEAVY RAIN OR HEATWAVES, DROUGHTS ( NORTHERN HEMISPHERE ONLY) (-)
remarks>
* latent potential for earthquakes with magnitudes higher than M 9.0! Some major catastrophic earthquake might likely happen, when effects of accumulated SEPs diminuish /.> 10 MeV electron accumulation will be neutralised, what is indicated , when electron energy suddenly will sharply drop at its end
accumulating SEPs can create rising heat within the Earth mantle that leads to strong magmatic /volcanic events
EASTERN EUROPE
AFRICA>< EURASIA><INDO/AUS><PAC
CENTRAL & WESTEN PACIFIC
AMERICA >< PACIFIC >< INDO/ AUS
ABOUT SEPs:
LAST MAJOR PROTON IMPACT (PHASE I)
ELECTRON ACCUMULATION (PHASE II)
FINAL DISCHARGE (PHASE III) :
GEOPHYSICAL EFFECTS:
GEOPHYSICAL EFFECTS:
GEOPHYSICAL EFFECTS:
SOLAR ACCELERATED AND EMMITTED PROTONS IMMIGRATE THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD AND ITS POLAR ORBIT
THE PROTONS CREATE AN ADDITIONAL GRAVITY PULL> THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ATTRACKTS AN EQUIVALENT OF ENERGETIC ELECTRONS FROM THE SOLAR MAGNETIC FIELTO NEUTRALISE THIS + CHARGE
AFTER THE PROTONS NOW ALSO ELECTRONS HAVE LOST THEIR CINETIC ENERGY THROUGH HEAT FRICTION. THE ACCUMULATION COLLAPSES THE EARTH MANTLE - PREVIOUSLY HEATED UP BY THE PROTON IMPACT and ELECTRON EFFECTS.- COOLS DOWN AND CONTRACTS AGAIN.
HEAT EFFECTS ON EARTH CORE AND MANTLE: VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES / MAINLY ON HOT SPOTS( SOUTH POLAR TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (-)
TORNADOES, THUNDERSTORMS, VOLCANIC SURFACE ACTIVITIES TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (m. northern Hemisphere)
> MAJOR AND potential CATASTROPHIC SUBDUCTION QUAKES with magnitudes (> M 8 or even > M 9 ) high enough to create a substantial and widespread Tsunami, if quakes occure subseas.
Abstract Recent analyses have shown that distant orbits within the scattered disk population of the Kuiper Belt exhibit an unexpected clustering in their respective arguments of perihelion. While several hypotheses have been put forward to explain this alignment, to date, a theoretical model that can successfully account for the observations remains elusive. In this work we show that the orbits of distant Kuiper Belt objects (KBOs) cluster not only in argument of perihelion, but also in physical space. We demonstrate that the perihelion positions and orbital planes of the objects are tightly confined and that such a clustering has only a probability of 0.007% to be due to chance, thus requiring a dynamical origin. We find that the observed orbital alignment can be maintained by a distant eccentric planet with mass gsim10 m⊕ whose orbit lies in approximately the same plane as those of the distant KBOs, but whose perihelion is 180° away from the perihelia of the minor bodies. In addition to accounting for the observed orbital alignment, the existence of such a planet naturally explains the presence of high-perihelion Sedna-like objects, as well as the known collection of high semimajor axis objects with inclinations between 60° and 150° whose origin was previously unclear. Continued analysis of both distant and highly inclined outer solar system objects provides the opportunity for testing our hypothesis as well as further constraining the orbital elements and mass of the distant planet....read more...
(by ESA: )Mission LISA Pathfinder will test in flight the concept of low-frequency gravitational wave detection: it will put two test masses in a near-perfect gravitational free-fall, and control and measure their motion with unprecedented accuracy. LISA Pathfinder will use the latest technology to minimise the extra forces on the test masses, and to take measurements. The inertial sensors, the laser metrology system, the drag-free control system and an ultra-precise micro-propulsion system make this a highly unusual mission. LISA Pathfinder is an ESA mission, which will also carry a NASA payload....read more
A new study from the team behind NASA's Mars Science Laboratory/Curiosity has confirmed that Mars was once, billions of years ago, capable of storing water in lakes over an extended period of time.
Using data from the Curiosity rover, the team has determined that, long ago, water helped deposit sediment into Gale Crater, where the rover landed more than three years ago. The sediment deposited as layers that formed the foundation for Mount Sharp, the mountain found in the middle of the crater today.
"Observations from the rover suggest that a series of long-lived streams and lakes existed at some point between about 3.8 to 3.3 billion years ago, delivering sediment that slowly built up the lower layers of Mount Sharp," said Ashwin Vasavada, Mars Science Laboratory project scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, and co-author of the new Science article to be published Friday, Oct. 9.
Veröffentlicht am 03.10.2015 In the previous Space News episode, we discussed recent, astonishing images of the surface of the dwarf planet Pluto. Many other surprises have already been revealed in the data thus far released from NASA’s New Horizons mission. Today, physicist Eugene Bagashov discusses what we have learned thus far about Pluto’s atmosphere and the larger Plutonian environment.
for longer time I have not updated myself on the latest of NASA curiosity rover Mars mission. Now I found some articles with some indeed strange images Curiosity sent to Earth
3. The "crocodile" This nosy crocodile once fully turned into stone , when it lurked up to the sky , when obviously something strange happened, we might call " Medusa effect"
my favourite ones: parts of destroyed buildings? Stone figures similar to the ones found on Eastern islands:
A group of youtube people are just waiting for the next super high resolution image the rover sends home, most people as obviously also the NASA staff does oftenly not take much notice of. Curiosity`s images have such a high resolution that you can search and magnify on them each detail and its just incredible what people find on these images:
Just watch the video( right side): I just can`t prove whether the "vehicle" oin this photo might be a a fake!>
Beside the jokes made upon these discoveries like the video with " the green frog" that survived on Mars after its water channels had dried out, some of these dicoveries just knocked me out of my shoes. Best source for those images on youtube is the channel what`s up in the sky.
However: Its meanwhile in all news and obviously noone could approve yet , that those images would have been faked with an photo editing software!
SPECIAL REPORTS: FREAKY IMAGES & VIDEOS
data for this reports and forecasts are eclusively taken by reliable sources such as NASA, NOAA and others.
APPENDIX:
notices on this page and its development
1. ABOUT ITS CONTENT:
first of all: some general information about the results of evaluation of the 26 solar sun spot cycle ( by the largest scientific project ever lounched in human history< - by NASA-to explore the sun).
resp about what especially my project is fucussed on ( while others don`t) .I am still- so far as I know- the only one in the entire web who publically observes/documents and researches the effects of solar SEPs :
2013, after 2 years after the second major> M 9 Earthquake had taken place within one decade and after two years of statistic evaluation and comparation of solar and terestrial data, it became clear , that socalled SEPS (or SAP or: SPE-Solar proton event) thos cause a long enduring chain of physical effects would be the solar feature I was looking for , being that solar feature. All statistic comparations made since then yet showed had a 100 % coincidence with these and the results indicate, SEPs can even strongest related geophysical effects. (NASA simply noted: SEPS can do EVERYTHING)
CMEs ( Coronal mass ejections) are produced during solar flares ( those are nuclear reactions around a dark likely blackmassed sun spot ) are or socalled filament eruptions ( solar gases erupting by higher concentrated electromagnetic fields in regions with higher mass density - also falsely named aas "Coronal holes "( the name derived by the fact that earlier devices for observation just allowed to see them as regions darker then the rest of the solar surface . So first it was believed these would be solar regions with lower gaz concentration . Meanhwile its is knoewn that CHs are just the opposite. Regions covered by heavier oftenly positiv ions of elements- could be eveything form Lithium to lead gold or whatever ) ALso Prominences are solargaszes erupting by magnetic short circuits, when magnetic fields are compressed and contorted by the high gravity produced around/by sun spots .
However statistic evaluatioin showed ; these high energetic eruption do have somephysical effects on the earth; buts ths most of them are neglectable .
However. SEPS those theoretically and as Nasa previously rightly concluded could "DO EVERYTHING"can as differently as CMEs filament eruptions and solar flares are : SEPs als occur in active and spotted regions but for shure happen much deeper within the sun : As Analysis of 30- 50 SEPs - detectable only by the one and only suitable infrared telescope mounted on STEREO Ahead / Behind CORE2 , showed that proton particles during an SEP are emitted almost in all directions ( they just can`t move through the solar core) and their speed is highest in radial direction ( where they achieve speeds near to the speed of light) butthey get als slower a s highest the ancle is to the radial axis resp as more solar gases they have to penetrate until they are emitted into space
However SEPs have three major parameters , from those it depends how strong their chain of geophysical subnuclear effects will and how long these will last. SPEs occure in higher numbers during peaks of the 11 year solar sun spot cycle , but also in between at at times of their minimas. There is now theories about how SEP come to existence resp are produced . I believe SPEs occure if mainyl larger sunspots-those likely consist out of a pure superdense protons (matter similar to matter within a black hole )sink deeper into the solar gaz hull, until they reach regions with such high electromagnetic forces/ densities, that they are torn apart into their single particles and ejected from theSun. (electron/ proton reaction)
This is (1) the proton speed,-(2) ( the proton density( in pfu =particles per second and squaremeter) and (3) the duration of the proton impact into the geomagnetic field ( this is the duration , how long values exceed th normal proton background of 0.1-0.5 pfu.
-updated on 20160125-
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2. ABOUT ITS DESIGN:
changes 2014:
July 2014: note: as the solar sun spot activity is decreasing now, major events will get less at least until May June 2014 .Therefore, this project is also limited now to basic updates. In July 2014 I decided to update this page only after significant event and changes and to turn this page into an monthly page that will cover significant events and can be archived then in that form.
January 25- 2014:
Now in early 2014, the peak off the sun spots cycle seems to be over and related activity visibly have decreased . I don`t expect many stronger and significant solar events for the next half year.
Recently I decided, to close the ongoing solar and terrestrial documentary at this point in this form , as it was made until now., whith complete data and event evaluation as its required for any scientific work . This I did to get this project to a point, that its results would be available and evaluable for further report and can be also a basic for further scientific research
Nevertheless as observations and evaluations have shown , that esp. the socalled SEPs ( solar events with proton emissions) are the almost only geoeffective known type of solar event) those do even have extremely strong and complex effects on the earth body , those only and best can be described just with the phrase- used by NASA- "theoretically can do everything". This is- since the usually seldom SEPs turned out to be the only solar activities those were in all cases coincident with major catastrophic earthquakes such as 2014 and 2011 - what this documentary now focusses on. SEPs however do happen MOST frequently during the maximum of the 11 years solar sun spot cycle (last in 2012(13) , but occure also in between but just in lower number.
So I will continue to watch over all these solar data and events and try to provide a full report and complete coverage in time, if any major event should take place ..
so the solar terrestrial blog will be continued in another simplified and limited form:
H. Hummel Munich/ Germany
all forecasts are without guarantee! Alle Vorhersagen sind ohne Gewaehr!
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