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SUN SPOT ACTIVITY ARCHIVE 2010

Statistical Comparations of sunspots, sunflares CMEs etc. to Earthquake and volcanic activities

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default earthquake time is: UTC (GMT)> tzcon ) <<you must add 1 hour to the event dates, ,as the converter default time is URC+ 1
NEW: VISIT my new site on Volcano activities ; begun in Oct 2010! On this page I want to create a timetable with worldwide volcano activities in 2010 and 2011. The site will also contain a list of volcanoes , a volcano map and other useful informations such as links to special reports or webcams: >just click here>> volcanoe activity timetable 2010/11
 

 

   
<< click here, to get informations, news reports archives with maps, links, videos of earthquake disasters
 
<< click here, to get informations, news reports archives with maps, links, videos of volcano disasters
 
<< Earthquake Statistics- START- with archives from 2004- 2010
 
>> First archive( 2010) of my successful evaluation project begun in 2010: Are there coincidences between sun spot activity and seimic activity- are seismic activities related to the sun activity? ( Earth Quake prediction experiment)
 
just click on the names an labels of the interactive map to get detailled informations! -Note: This map is designed for a screen resolution of 1024 x 768 pixel.

 

ARCHIVES OF FORMER EVALUATIONS
eqstart er eq tsunamicon rt er  

 

SOLAR <NASA: current view on the sun surface
SUN SPOTS AND SEISMICITY ARCHIVE 2010
automatically updated report: warning centers          
er <<click on image to enlarge the 6 hours solar X ray report- provided by NOAA dg Space Weather Predicton Center. usgov.
institutes >> Royal Observatory of Belgium
< Solar Terrestrial Activity Report >

About Earthquake prediction by Sun activity and planetary A index:

( read here,how everybody can evaluate predictions for earth quake and volcano eruptions :

Sun winds" consist out of energetic particles , which reach the Earth within appr. 2 days after huge " Sun- CME" s have occured. As it seems, resp statistics show, they seem to trigger, at least enhance earthquake- and volcano activity on Earth. , These "CME ("coronal mass ejections") go along with the forming of " sun spots within the 11 year circle of sun activity.The next sun spot maximum will be in 2012 . To estimate the expectable impact , CMEs would have on theradio- and air traffic on Earth, scientific instututes measure the impact of radiation (light- waves) emitted by these CMEs, which reaches the Earth with the speed of light by (see: X ray/ Planetary A Index= impact on the magnetic field of the Earth) . The particle winds however - depending on their speed- need 1-2 days to reach the Earth. Therefore, the x - ray impact or the PAI is also a basic value, by which heavier earthquake or volcano eruptions can be predicted within 6 hours to a maximum of 3 days after the sun spot/ eruption occured! Therefore - any earth quake warnings based on sun spot activities can also only be made within that time frame of 6 hours- max 3 days after the real sun eruption!! See the table below,the values of sun spots and planetary A Indices, from those on larger Earthquakes or volcano eruptions have to be expected! Note: This forecast is without any guarantee or liability !

Please note: these seismic activites can be released through volcanos or earthquakes or both! If there are ongoing volcano activities, effects earthquake can become less and opposite.

This page was begun in May 2010 and contains therefore only reports since then

UPDATE- April 2011 ; Note the CMEs events directed to Earth I have updated later on out of the archives at solen. info.

The project was startet in May 2010. With each new project, It needs always time to find the best way how to display the data. So- in this first year of evalutions, some features may appear later or some formats may still change!

ARCHIVES 2010

archive 2010 of earthquake predictions,. made on basis of sun activity since May 2010
location: not predictable- can occure in each currently active earthquake- and volcano region. ( scroll down)

In this column you find the sun activity data from: www. solen/Solar Terrestrial Activity Report: (updated once/ daily)

( with friendly permission)

updated in April 2010: CMEs as observed by solen. info: www. solen.info in these two columns you find the forecasts I have made on basic of the time, when 2- 3 days after sunspot form out, resp. CME occure, solar winds would reach and impact the earth in this colum I have noted ( some days later) all earthquakes above 6.0, those resulted from that impact

space for notices

Further down you will find a column ( cathegory instead. This means the estimated Strength of an earthquake due to the sun activity data ( 1-3)

last update/
sun eruption on:

CME dorected to Earth

number of sunspots
estimated Earthquake strength*
Earthquake or volcano eruption to be expected from/ to.
results:
remarks
click on images to enlarge them

May 2010:

        sun activity and earthquakes- chart- MAY 2010
  solen. info reportApril 3: A long duration event in region 11059 was associated with at least a partial halo CME.          
2010 -May 05 Strong flaring activity in progress, currently at ~ C9 level!

solen. info report

Updated added at 09:15 UTC on April 5: The CME observed on April 3 was much faster than initial velocity observations indicated. A strong solar wind shock was observed at SOHO at 07:59 UTC, just 46 hours after the LDE in region 11059 with solar wind abruptly increasing to near 700 km/s. GOES observed a strong sudden impulse and minor to major geomagnetic storming is likely today.

Updated added at 10:40 UTC: Severe geomagnetic storming is currently in progress. The 3 hour ap index reached 132 (K index 7) during the 07-10 UTC interval.

  no forecasts made yet. project was just begun!  

4 major earthquakes between May, 6th and 9th / second eruption of EYJAFJALLAJOKULLon May. 4th

These 2 strong CME those produced a seldom solar magnetical storm , triggered more than 1000 Earthquakes with magnitudes between 2.9. and 7.8 on March 4-6th

 

THis is the asbolute unreached record since I counted the daily Earthquakes since 2004!

tjhe record was until now: never more than 140!!

>>> update: (06-April-2010=.     no forecasts made yet. project was just begun!     Most of the sun wind caused by the huge eruptions currently did not hit the the earth, but spread int6o other directions-. ( see: curve of "planetary A index" in my graphics below)->>>
update-(07-April-2010)-     no forecasts made yet. project was just begun!     sun spot activity is diminuishing since 6 April - risks for earthquakes should also sink soon, ( whould be over until 8th or 9th! ) This forecast is without guarantee)dom of the Pacific ringoffire (> California?) could be affected!
May- 21-2010-after 1 week silence, new sun spot became visible on the sun, those will trigger sun eruptions     no forecasts made yet. project was just begun! WARNINGS FOR MAY 22,23,24,:

three major earthquakes:

May-23. >( Peru, 6.1.)

May 24 > ( Brazil, 6.3)

May, 25 >( Atlantic ridge, 6.0)

Though the impact on Earth is not known yet ( maybe tomorrow) , heavier earthquake or volcano activities must be expected in the following days: (-May 22nd, 23rd, 24rd) follow the solar terrestrial activity report left! The danger will be over if sun spot activitiy decrreases again.
MAJOR ALERT!     no forecasts made yet. project was just begun! HEAVY EARTHQUAKE TO BE EXPECTED on MAY 30- JUNE 02!!!    
May- 30- 2010    

no forecasts made yet. project was just begun!

estimation: West Coast of NORTHERN AMERICA and Northern part of SOUTH AMERICA (?

May- 29- 2010: sun spot activity has risen again significantly on May 29!! In addition, the planetary A index indicates, , that much of its particle winds will reach the Earth, from May 30/ 31 .

The next days, ( May-30 - June- 02) major Earthquakes with at least 7.0 magnitudes ( or volcano eruptions) should be expected to take place at any time!

2010 June 01 03:26:18 UTC-Magnitude 6.1 - COSTA RICA

> 2010 May 31 19:51:48 UTC- Magnitude 6.4 - ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION

> 2010 May 31 10:16:02 UTC Magnitude 6.0 - MORO GULF, MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

 

JUNE 2010

            sun activity and earthquakes- chart- JUNE 2010

June- 5th- 2010

(25>diminuishing)

 

25

6.0-6.5

low danger

June- 08-2010

- sun activity was falling on June 6th .

2010 June 09 23:23:19 UTC

magnitude- 6.0 - VANUATU

since May - 26-2010: 10 new continuing volcano activities were registered worldwide

( click on graphic to enlarge)

June-13th 2010 (rising)

until June 15- 2010 ( falling)

  46 6.0-7.0

June 15/16, 17.

actual warning alert ends on: June- 17-

2010 June 17 13:06:45 UTC - Magnitude 6.0 - SOUTH OF THE KERMADEC ISLAND

2010 June 16 03:06:05 UTC -Magnitude 6.4 - NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA

2010 June 16 03:16:29 UTC - Magnitude 7.0 -

2010 June 16 03:06:05 UTC- Magnitude 6.4 - NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA

2010 June 16 03:16:29 UTC- Magnitude 7.0 - NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA

2010 June 16 03:58:10 UTC - Magnitude 6.2 - NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA

June- 21- 25   14

< (latent- lower than) 6.0

currently low but latent danger -but: sun spot activity higher !

visit me again in the next days for updates!

NEW BRITAIN 2010 June 24 05:32:28 UTC - Magnitude 6.1- REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA  
June- 18- 2010- 20   15- 13 6.0- 6.5

new activities to be expected ( at least) for June- 20th- June 21.

A Canada earthquake shook Toronto and Ottawa at approximately 1:45 p.m. Eastern Time today, June 23, 2010.  
June- 21- 25   14

< (latent- lower than) 6.0

currently low but latent danger -but: sun spot activity higher !

visit me again in the next days for updates!

NEW BRITAIN 2010 June 24 05:32:28 UTC - Magnitude 6.1- REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA Tiatia/ Russia: thermal anomaly from Tiatia volcano was detected by satellite on 25 June.
June- 27- 29   10

lower

Magn. :+/- 6.0

- LOW earthquake activity to exspected from June- 29- on.

2010 June 30 04:30:59 UTC - Magnitude 6.3- SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS

2010 June 30/ 07:22:28 UTC - Magnitude 6.2- OAXACA, MEXICO

 

JULY- 2010

      sun activity and earthquakes- chart- JULY- 2010

June 29- Juli- 4

 

22- 11

( latent)

low:

6.0- 7.0

higher earthquake risk to be exspected for :

July-1- until July- 2nd.- continuing on lower level

lower activity ( +/- 6.0) continuing. click for updates during the next days

2010 July 02 06:04:04 UTC -Magnitude 6.4 - VANUATU

2010 July 04 21:55:51 UTC-Magnitude 6.4- NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

( click on graphic to enlarge)
July 5 ( currently decreasing since July- 6)   24

medium:

6.0- 7.0

higher earthquake/volcano activity to be exspected for :

Juli- 7 / Juli 8 /continuing?

click for updates during the next days!

(lately?): 2010 July 10 11:43:32 UTC - Magnitude 6.2 - SOUTH OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS

volcanoes:

Ulawun-Papua New Guinea during 1 and 2-5 July ash plumes from Ulawun drifted 55-195 km at an altitude of 3 km (10,000 ft) a.s.l.

11. Juli (rising)-( 13 Juli)   25- 28 latent, rising- +/- 6.5

latent** danger of earthquakes -currently with rising strength for Juli 13- 14 , probably continuing on higher level

look for updates in the next days!

cathegory: 1* 2010 July 14 08:32:22 UTC- Magnitude 6.5 - BIO-BIO, CHILE

8. Juli- 10. Juli

rising

  11 ( 18) latent, but low (+/- 6.0)

latent** danger of earthquakes -currently with anticipited lower strength for Juli 11- 13 , continuing on higher level

cathegory: 1*

2010 July 10 11:43:32 UTC - Magnitude 6.2 - SOUTH OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS

2010 July 12 00:11:18 UTC - Magnitude 6.2 - ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE

17 Juli- falling   14 low- +/- 6.5 decreasing- - from Juli- 19 on: low : look for updates in the next days!  

2010 July 18 13:04:11 UTC Magnitude 6.9 - NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA

2010 July 18 13:34:59 UTC Magnitude 7.3 - NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA

2010 July 18 19:48:10 UTC Magnitude 6.0 - FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA

14 Juli ( falling> 15 . Juli > latent )   15- low- +/- 6.5

further latent tendency for low Earthquakes of cathegory 1*

cathegory: 1* 2010 July 18 05:56:44 UTC -Magnitude 6.7 - FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA
             
Juli- 18 rising   32 6.5- 7.5

medium earthquakes to be expected for:

Juli- 22- 23

1-2

2010 July 23 22:08:11 UTC -Magnitude 7.3 -

2010 July 23 22:51:11 UTC -Magnitude 7.6-

2010 July 23 23:15:08 UTC -Magnitude 7.4

MORO GULF, MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

alert level!

Juli 23 ( rising)

  45 6.0- 7.5 and higher stronger earthquakes expectable for: Juli- 24. - 25.- 26... 1-3

24.7.10: LOW LEVEL- TSUNAMI WARNING AFTER 3 EARTHQUAKES ABOVE 7.0 HIT THE PHILLIPINES

2010 July 25 03:39:22 UTC - Magnitude 6.0 - TONGA

2010 July 24 05:35:01 UTC - Magnitude 6.5 - MORO GULF, MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

Juli 25 ( Juli- 26)

falling since Juli- 27

 

40 ( 38)

(Juli 27): 10 falling towards 0

6.0- 7.5 and higher

activity still ongoing- danger for medium - high earthquakes :

1-3

2010 July 29 07:31:56 UTC -Magnitude 6.6 - MORO GULF, MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

weekly USGS report: three new volcano unrests ( alert level: red):

KILAUEA Hawaii (USA)19.421°N, 155.287°W; summit elev. 1222 m: Juli- 21.- 27

RABAUL New Britain -4.271°S, 152.203°E; summit elev. 688 m: since Juli 23

MIYAKE-JIMA Izu Islands (Japan)34.079°N, 139.529°E; summit elev. 815 m: since Juli 21

Juli- 28 (rising)   30

6.0- 7.0

latent***!

new activity-

medium activities on Juli 30 and Juli 31- continuing- check for updates the next days!

1-2

31-7-2010- medium heavy earthquake in Iran-see report below!

2010 July 30 03:56:13 UTC - Magnitude 6.3 - OFF THE EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA, RUSSIA

AUGUST 2010       sun activity and earthquakes- chart- AUGUST - 2010
           

( click on graphic to enlarge)

two giant Sunflare on Sunday, 1st- high alert

( der spiegel.de-3.8.10): Doppelschlag von Sonnenfleck 1092

 

Sun flare

high value of planetary A index

unknown, high

August 4- August 6 continuing on high alert level

US Sun oberservatory "SDO" reported two giant ( medium) sun flares, those occured on August Sunday- 2nd, caused by one sun spot Nr 1092., causing medium radiation effects jet. If it is not just a "sensation" report, effects should be expected from today on- August 4 and the coming days

unknown

high risk

( 1-3)

record!!

2010 August 04 07:15:33 UTC - Magnitude 6.4 - EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA

2010 August 03 12:08:26 UTC -Magnitude 6.3 - MOLUCCA SEA

2010 August 04 12:58:24 UTC - Magnitude 6.3 - ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS., ALASKA

2010 August 04 22:01:43 UTC -Magnitude 7.0 - NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA

2010 August 04 23:48:02 UTC - Magnitude 6.0 - EAST OF THE KURIL ISLANDS

2010 August 04 04:46:21 UTC - Magnitude 6.0 - SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS

August- 04-2010 (rising)

 

26 ( rising)

planetary A Index:

4,2!!!

6.0- 7.5

danger of heaviest Earthquakes continuing on high alert level

1-3  
August 05:  

55

PAI`: 0.8

       
August- 07  

45 /falling)

planetary A Index:

0.5

6.0 and higher

expectable for August 9 - 11

expecially , while sun activity is falling

1-3** 2010 August 10 05:23:46 UTC - Magnitude 7.3 - VANUATU
August- 09  

53

(PAI= 1,0)

6.0 and higher

activity still continuing on high level

latent earthquake tendency

see the next days for updates

   
August- 09  

53

(PAI= 1,0)

6.0 and higher

activity still continuing on high level

latent earthquake tendency

 

2010 August 12 11:54:16 UTC - Magnitude 7.1 - ECUADOR

2010 August 11 03:35:20 UTC - Magnitude 6.0 - VANUATU

2010 August 10 05:23:46 UTC - Magnitude 7.3 - VANUATU

       
August- 11  

65

(PAI: 10)

6.0 . 7.0 and higher sun activity going to reach a new record high in 2010 1-3** 2010 August 13 21:19:32 UTC - Magnitude 7.2 - MARIANA ISLANDS REGION        
August 12  

50 (falling)

PAI: 0.5

6.0 . 7.0 and higher

at least until Aug- 14, maybe also 15

1-3**

2010 August 13 21:19:33 UTC - Magnitude 6.9 - MARIANA ISLANDS REGION

2010 August 14 07:30:16 UTC- Magnitude 6.3 - MARIANA ISLANDS REGION

2010 August 14 23:01:05 UTC - Magnitude 6.6 - MARIANA ISLANDS REGION

       
August- 14  

30 (falling)

PAI: 0.3

low

current activity decreasing, but expected to continue until Aug 15 on low level and to be lower from on Aug 16 on

currently no information for the days from Aug 17 on.

see the next days for updates

1

2010 August 16 03:30:55 UTC -Magnitude 6.3 - MAURITIUS - REUNION REGION

2010 August 15 15:09:31 UTC - Magnitude 6.3 - NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA

       
August-19  

12/ falling)

PAI:0.5

low

August-21-

last low effects of the last higher sun- activity

1 2010 August 20 17:56:19 UTC -Magnitude 6.4 - BOUGAINVILLE REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA        
August- 21- 23  

o

(PAI: 0.0- 0.7)

low currently no major activty expectable 0          
August- 24  

15- rising

PAI: 1.5

higher              
        AUG 26- 27- danger of low magitude earthquakes or volcanic activities- rising 1          
August- 31  

27

PAI: .3

6.0 SEP 01-03 - low danger of low magnitude earthquakes or volcanic activities- stabile 1      
August- 26  

23-

PAI: 11

6.0- 6.5 AUG 28- 29- danger of low magnitude earthquakes or volcanic activities- stabile . heatwave and other metereological effects expectable 1      

SEPTEMBER 2010

               
last update* /
increasing sun activity measured on (date)
number of sunspots

 

estimated Earthquake strength caused by solar winds:
increased Earthquake or volcano activities to be expected from/ to:
currently estimated - alert level**
results:

other effects of sun spots and CME:

remarks:

     

SEPTEMBER 1-3

high alert!

52- 54

PAI: 0.2/0.8/0.4

6.0- 7.5

Sorry! But I had no time during the last days! The report in the line above was made afterwards on Sept.- 04-2010:

Highest eartquake danger atleast for August 04- August 06- continuing!!!

             

SEPTEMBER 03

high alert!

54

PAI: 0.4

6.0- 7.5

Danger of heavy earthquakes and/or volcanoe eruptions will continue the following days-at least von Sep- 05 - 07! 1-3

M 6.0 - M 6.4 - FIJI REGION - 2010-09-07 16:13 UTCTONGA - 2010-09-06 07:24 UTC

         
SEPTEMBER 05- 07 falling

68 < 17 (falling)

PAI: 0.3 < 0.9

6.0- 7.5

last effects of recent activity high expectable until September 09 . On Sept 10, 11 -low danger

Please check updates dring the next days.

             

SEPTEMBER 05- 07

falling

68 < 17 (falling)

PAI: 0.3 < 0.9

6.0- 7.5

The most of the current seismic tension has been unleashed with the major Earthquake on New Zealand n Sep- 03.

Further activity of last sun spot maximum is highly expectable until September 10. On Sept, 11/12 :low danger

1-3

M 6.1 - OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE - 2010-09-09 07:28 UTC

M 6.3 - VANUATU - 2010-09-08 11:37 UTC

M 6.4 - FIJI REGION - 2010-09-07 16:13 UTC

M 5.3 - SOUTHERN IRAN - 2010-09-07 02:11 UTC

M 6.0 - TONGA - 2010-09-06 07:24 UTC

 

 

SEP- 10- 12

rising

0 > 25

PAI: 0.3 > 0.1

low

6.0

SEP- 14- 15:

(max. 6.0-6.5)- low Earthquake and volcano activity

1

SEP- 10- 14:

-no earthquakes above 6.0 registered

 

 

   
SEP-13- 14

17- 24

PAI: 0.2- 0.9

low

SEP 16/ 17- currently no imminent danger

activity continuing on low level -

> warm weather to be expected

Please check for updates during the next days.

1 ------------        

SEP- 16-2010

higher alert!

46- rising

PAI: 0.7

6.0-7.5

caution: heavy Earthquake or volcano eruptions to be expected on:

SEP 17 until: SEP 19 -

 

  M 6.3 - HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN - 2010-09-17 19:21 UTC      

SEP- 19- 21

2010

continuing!

50 falling >37

PAI: 0.4

6.0- 7.5

activity is CONTINUING on medium level !caution: therefore heavier Earthquake or volcano eruptions can occure at any time and can`t be predicted exactly by date!

also warm temperatures to be expected!

check the next days for updates

           

SEP- 24 - SEP 28-

2010

34- 53

constantly high

PAI: 1.3/ 0.6

6.0 -?

permanent alert

SEP 29- OCT- 01

Sun activity is continuing to remain on a medium level. Earthquake activity was significantly low for more than 1 week:

as sun activity is constantly high (and does currently not drop in between), the exact date of the next heavier earthquake cannot be exactly predicted

any heavier Earth quake or volcano eruption must be expected at any time soon, resp. the next days( 28.- 30.ff),

1-3**

currently unrest on 6 volcanoes worldwide ( alert levels: red )

M 6.7 - NEAR S COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA - 2010-09-29 17:10 UTC

Magnitude 7.2 - NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA

 

 

   

SEP- 22- 2010

falling>25  

SEP- 24-25 afterwards: Rather calm again

activity decreasing- some last major earthquake or volcanic activities must still be expected esp. up to 2 days after activity began to fall!-

           

OCTOBER 2010

         
OCT- 02- 03

43 /2.10 > 30/ 3.10.

5.0- 6.0 Since sun activity started to decrease on OCT- 02 (after a longer period of constant high) , the expected " relaxation" earthquake occured two days later. OCT 5 and 6 rather no further larger activity will occure. 1-2 M 6.4 - SOUTHWESTERN RYUKYU ISL., JAPAN - 2010-10-04 13:28 UTC 12    
OCT- 04- 06

20 falling to zero

PAI: 0.3/ 0.8

6.0- 7.5 activity falling towards 00/last expected " relaxation" earthquakes occured two days later>>  
M 6.1 - HALMAHERA, INDONESIA - 2010-10-08 05:43 UTC
M 6.1 - ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS. - 2010-10-08 03:49 UTC
M 6.4 - ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS. - 2010-10-08 03:26 UTC
 
 
   
OCT- 06- 07

00

PAI: 0.4

---

OCT 09-

very low activity/ no major event probable.

  no Earthquake above 6.0 registered on OCT 09, 10 --      
OCT- 08- 13

> < 10-

PAI: 0.4

6.0- 6.5

Only low Earthquake and volcano activites must be expected on OCT- 10 and OCT 11, ( update;) ALSO FOR, OCT 12,13, 14, 15

1*

M 6.0 - NEAR S COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA - 2010-10-12 10:21 UTC

no Earthquake above 6.0 registered on OCT 11, 13

 

 

   
 

24 rising

PAI: 0.6

6.0- 7.0

OCT. 14- 16 (most probable: OCT- 15)

new seismic activities with rising strength

1-2*

M 6.4 - KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA - 2010-10-16 15:44 UTC

M 6.4 - TONGA - 2010-10-16 20:08 UTC

M 5.0 - NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE - 2010-10-15 17:54 UTC

(note: Earth.quakes in the Atlantic are known to be rather intense, even if their magnitude is lower than 6)        

OCT 15

alert!

50 rising

PAI: 0.5

6.5.- xx

Heavy Earthquakes could occure in the next days- OCT 17, 18

check the next days for updates

2-3*            

OCT 16

alert!

49 falling

PAI: 0.5

6.5- 7.5

OCT- 18

not predictable

2-3
M 4.7 - SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND - 2010-10-18 22:32 UTC- low magnitude Earthquake which caused signficant damage in Christchurch-NZ
         

OCT 17

alert!

60 rising!

possibly reaching new record high in 2010!

PAI: 1.0

6.5 - xx

OCT- 19, 20...

 
2-3
So long as Sun activity remains on a constant level, the extact date of earthquake effects are not predictable! Earthquakes will then most likely happen, if sun activity changes , resp. 2 days after it will fall again sifinificantly !!
>reportedly. the Earthquake near New Zealand ( Christchurch) with magitude just had great effects,. Houses began to sway and further danage occured . But on Oct- 19 also Servers were disturbed and lost their data.
On a Boing flight to Leipzig the cabine pressure regulation failed and the plane had to land. The causes are not yet known. For some effects the strong suns spot activity could be responsible!

OCT 20

alert!

65 latent high, dropping to 63

PAI: 0.5

6.5- xx

Oct 20- 23

if sun spot activity will drop now, Oct 23- 25 will likely be the dates of one or strong earthquakes or volcano eruptions! >>>
sun spot activity rose again up to 65 , which is on of the highest values measured in 2010. be aware of further quakes and other effects ( read right column! >)
2-3**
 
         
OCT- 21 dropping to 3.5 6.5- xx
Earthquake effects from last sun spot activity should be expected until Oct- 22.
2-3**
Earthquake in California occured as expected- two days after sun spot activity began to drop significantly on Oct- 19
         
OCT- 22

34

PAI: 0.5

                 
OCT- 23

50 rising

PAI: 2.4

 
correction: forecast turned out top be wrong. an extreme strong earthquake occured 2 days after sun activity rose from 34 (OCT-21) to 50 ( Oct 23)>>
 

M 7.6 - KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA - 2010-10-25 14:42 UTC

no damage reported!
 
       
OCT- 24

57 rising

PAI 0.9

6.5- xx
OCT- 26, 27
sun activity continuing on very high level- stronger earthquakes can happen at any time, but will rather occure if sun activity will drop again significantly
2-3
OCT- 26. New unrest on MERAPI,Indonesia`s most dangerous volcano, close to the capital Jakarta. Explosive eruption expected- thousands evacuated
(BBC.com) Highest alert issued for

MERAPI VOLCANO MONITORING

Indonesia's Merapi volcano ( incl. video)
The Merapi volcano observatory has not issued any report yet
       

OCT- 26

highest alert!

75 ( highest value in all 2010!)

PAI: 0.7

6,5-xx

OCT 28 and/ or 29 ( highest!)

sun activity has another time increased to now more than 75 active sun spots. After 4 high magnitude Earthquakes in Indonesia the outbreak of the Merapi volcano, much of the current energy might have been released for the moment.
But nevertheless the high sun activity indicates another Earthquake on large scale could happen on OCT 28 and/ or 29. Otherwise further volcanic activity such as on the Merapi could follow instead!
3**

M 6.1 - NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G. - 2010-10-28 03:17 UTC

OCT- 28-2010-ERUPTION: SHIVELUCH- VOLCANO/ KAMATCHKA ISLAND /RUSSIA
         

OCT- 27

highest alert!

55 falling

PAI: 0.5

6.5- xx

OCT 29/ 30

high alert for heavier Earthquakes after sun activity began to fall again on Oct- 27!
3 **
new eruptions on MERAPI volcano, Indonesia on OCT 28 and 29- volcano spittet stones and ash, lava is flowing down its slopes
         
OCT- 29

24

PAI: 0.3

6.5- xx

OCT 30/ 31 -afterwards: calm

still continuing high alert for heavier Earthquake likely to occure ,after sun activity began to fall again on Oct- 27!
3** M 6.1 - PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE - 2010-10-30 15:18 UTC warm temperatures - in the Southern hemisphere heatwave and dry conditions to be expected        
OCT- 30

30-rising

PAI: 0.3

6.0-6.5

moderate earthquake or volcano activity expectable for NOV- 01

-Sun activity is still on higher level and is also currently rising again . This could possibly trigger an higher Eq. on Nov 2nd. or later-
warm temperatures will continue
1- 2* Indonesia`s volcano Merapi remains on special highest alert . A greater eruption is expected possibly to occure at any not predictable time          
OCT- 31

33 -stable

PAI: o.3

5.0-6.0

moderate earthquake or volcano activity expectable for NOV- 02

warm temperatures will continue

1 new larger eruption occured at Merapi volcano on Nov -01-2010          

NOVEMBER 2010

 

NOV- 1- 3

17 - 25

PAI: 0.2- 0.4

6.0

 

warm temperatures will continue

 

1-2**

 

largest eruption occured at Merapi since its outbreak on Oct- 26

 

 

     

NOV- 4

new higher alert!

34 rising

PAI: 0.4

6.0- 7.0

NOV- 5- NOV- 06

new activity alert. currently low, but rising

check for updates tomorrow!

1-3**

 

new larger eruption could occure the next days (OCT. 05, 06...) due to the current new sunspot activity period

         
NOV- 5
30- falling
PAI: 0.2
low-max.: 6.0
Medium ongoing activity Probability of larger Earthquake above 6.0 or extremer volcano eruption low for
NOV- 07 and 08
warm temperatures will continue
check for updates the next days
 
1**
Merapi activity will continuing
no Earthquakes above 6.0 registered since NOV- 03
         

NOV- 4

new higher alert!

34 rising

PAI: 0.4

6.0- 7.0

NOV- 5- NOV- 06

new activity alert. currently low, but rising

check for updates tomorrow!

1-3**

 

new larger eruption could occure the next days (OCT. 05, 06...) due to the current new sunspot activity period

         
NOV- 5
30- falling
PAI: 0.2
low-max.: 6.0
Medium ongoing activity Probability of larger Earthquake above 6.0 or extremer volcano eruption low for
NOV- 07 and 08
warm temperatures will continue
check for updates the next days
 
1**
Merapi activity will continuing
no Earthquakes above 6.0 registered since NOV- 03
         

NOV- 08

high alert!

35- continuing on higher level-rising
PAI: 0.2

6.0 - xx

NOV- 09- 10:

Medium volcanic activities to be expected- higher- highest activity ( MERAPI!) to be expected if sun activity should further rise the next days-!
If sun activity would rise higher , a new imminent new highest alert level could take place form Nov- 11 on!
warm temperatures will continue
- check for updates the next days!-

2*

ongoing volcanic activities on Merapi and other volcanoes >>
no Earthquakes above 6.0 registered since NOV- 03

 

YELLOW ALERTS were issued for:
Dukono, Halmahera | Eyjafjallajökull, Southern Iceland | Fuego, Guatemala | Karymsky, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) | Kilauea, Hawaii (USA) | Manam, Northeast of New Guinea (SW Pacific) | Pagan, Mariana Islands (Central Pacific) | Sakura-jima, Kyushu | Sangay, Ecuador | Santa María, Guatemala | Villarrica, Central Chile
         

Nov- 11

high alert

50

continuing on high level-rising

volcanic activities

expectable

Nov- 13, 14:

simply explained, Earthquakes rather occure after strong " uop and downs in the sun activity, resp by the energetic differences caused on Earth by the impacts of the sunwinds.thestrong intensive volcanic activities expectable
   
Between OCT- 28 and NOV o6 global volcanism program registered 6 new volcanoes unrests:
RED ALERTS were issued for:
Colima, México | Kliuchevskoi, Central Kamchatka (Russia) | Krakatau, Indonesia | Merapi, Central Java (Indonesia) | Piton de la Fournaise, Reunion Island | Planchón-Peteroa, Central Chile-Argentina border | Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia)
 
         

Nov- 11

highest alert

50

continuing on high level-rising

volcanic activities

expectable

Nov-12, 13, 14:

.the strong intensive volcanic activities expectable.
The expected Mega outbreak on MERAPI could most probably occure duirng that high activity period, resp. the next days!!!!
3**
Intensive volcano activities are ongoing in several Earth regions! ( read right colum!).
You find ore informations on current and past volcano activities my new page
"volcano watch"
or on the website of the Smithsonian institute- ( global volcanism program)
Studies in 2010:
First studies on the relation between sun spot activity and climatical and seismic affects on 2011 indicate, that Earth-quakes rather occure after strong " up and downs" in the sun- spot activity. The related differencies in the strength and impacts of sunwinds cause energetic differences inside the Earth. -Simply said- the changes in temperature seems to expand and contract the inner Earth , which effects than as a typical Earthquakes.
> differently to that- sun spot activity remains stable on a certain and higher level- effects in the Earth, comparable to a stove . i This "heating up effects" then typically leads to higher volcanic activity rather than Earthquakes . As longer such a period last as stronger seem to be these effects" also. The warm warm temperatures periods in 2011 in June and July - possibly also other climatical effects ( such as storms) were also related to longer lasting higher activity periods on our central star!
 
         
Between OCT- 28 and NOV o6 global volcanism program registered 6 new volcanoes unrests:
RED ALERTS were issuedbetween Oct- 29 and Nov- 05 for:for:
Colima, México | Kliuchevskoi, Central Kamchatka (Russia) | Krakatau, Indonesia | Merapi, Central Java (Indonesia) | Piton de la Fournaise, Reunion Island | Planchón-Peteroa, Central Chile-Argentina border | Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia)
YELLOW ALERTS were issued for:
Dukono, Halmahera | Eyjafjallajökull, Southern Iceland | Fuego, Guatemala | Karymsky, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) | Kilauea, Hawaii (USA) | Manam, Northeast of New Guinea (SW Pacific) | Pagan, Mariana Islands (Central Pacific) | Sakura-jima, Kyushu | Sangay, Ecuador | Santa María, Guatemala | Villarrica, Central Chile

 

         

Nov- 12

alert

again rising to 68!

PAI: 1.5 ( relatively high!)

enhanced volcanic activities!

NOV- 15- 16:

highest volcanic activity expectable ( MERAPI!!)

 

3**

( report- 9- Nov- 2010): 6 volcanoes eruptive ( red level alert)- 7 others on yellow alert ( active)

( weekly report by USGS)

red alert:Bulusan-Colima, Kliuchevskoi, Merapi, Simeru, Shiveluch see: volcano watch

Stronger Earthquake expectable, two days after sun spot number will drop again significantly!

         

Nov- 17

alert

55

PAI: 0.6

6.0

NOV- 18 - 19

1-2              
NOV- 18

60- rising

PAI: 0.4

intensified volcano activity NOV 18, 19. ... 2

Between Nov- 1oth and 16th, 4 volcanoes newly erupted-

currently. 4 volcanoes are set on red alert ( = eruptive) : Etna ( Sicil)Buluzan (Luzon)- Merapi ( Indonesia) and Shiveluch ( Kamatchka islands- Russia )

11 others are on yellow alert ( active).

high volcano activity continues- warm temperatures continue- Stronger Earthquake expectable, two days after sun spot number will drop again significantly!

         

NOV- 19

high alert

40- further significantly falling!

PAI: 0.4

6.5- xx

heavy Earthquakes expectable: NOV 19, 20 and 21! ( or later)

( probability: 90%)

temperatures will fall

2-3! M 6.0 - NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G. - 2010-11-23 09:01 UTC

Differently to those Earthquakes caused by sun winds - Earthquakes , which occure when the sun spot activity falls , are hardly predictable, as they depend on a different- kind of cooling down effect

         
Nov- 24

18- still falling

PAI-0.8

6.0- 7.0

currently no more imminent danger ( read right column) Nevertheless still heavier Earthquakes possible within the next days.

temperatures will fall further

1**   sun activity is still dropping from a long time high. Currently NO significant higher sun activity - situation uncertain          
Nov.- 25 25 rising 6.0- 6.5

Nov- 26- 27

(possibly rising)

check the next days for updates

1-2** ------------------            
Nov. 26

falling to 10

PAI: 0.2

none ---------- ----------
activity was dropping again to 10- therefore no Earthquake occured on 26 or 27th
           
NOV- 28

34- further rising

PAI: 0.6

6.0- 7.0

or volcanic activity!

NOV- 29- 30

probability: high

2**

M 7.0 - BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION - 2010-11-30 03:24 UTC

M 6.0 - FIJI REGION - 2010-12-01 16:01 UTC

M 6.7 - NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G. - 2010-12-02 03:12 UTC

           

DECEMBER 2010

                 
DEC- 01

25- up and down

PAI: 0.2

low-6.0-6.5                  
DEC 07

34

PAI: 0.4

 

DEC- 8, 9

none

               
DEC 06

35 falling

PAI: 0.2

--6.0

most probably, new volcanic activities must be expected for the coming days!

1-2*

M 6.3 - SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION - 2010-12-08 05:24 UTC

 

on December 05 ,the sun activity was falling again from 48 sunspots on Dec. 03- to 35 sp. today. This "up and down "will again will rather trigger volcanic activities than Earthquakes.

         

DEC- 04

alert

37 rising 6.0-x

DEC 05. 06, 07

Earthquakes- probability; high!

1-2 -----------------

Earthquake alert cancelled as sun activity was falling again on Dec 05

         
DEC 11

33 rising

PAI: 0.0

5.0- 6.0

DEC- 12, 13

low- not dangerous activity

------------

 

 

           
DEC 13/14

46 falling to 28

PAI: 10

6.0

Dec 16

lower Earthquake possible

1

check the next days for updates

futheron higher volcanic activity probable

         
Dec- 15 falling below 10 none

currently no indication for stronger Earthquake

   

the sun spot activity is very irregular going uop and down again without significant magnitudes

         
Dec- 18 - 21 sun spot activity sank to zero-  

no prediction was made on these events >

 

M 7.4 - BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION - 2010-12-21 17:19 UTC ( followed by hundreds of after quakes- see report below!)

M 6.0 - SIMEULUE, INDONESIA - 2010-12-21 14:07 UTC

M 6.5 - SOUTHEASTERN IRAN - 2010-12-20 18:41 UTC

 

The last days, I had unfortunately much to do and did not mention as in previous reports that such a significant drop of the sun activity would trigger earthquakes too. Its a rather uncertain method but the statistic proves it again to be true.

         
Dec- 26

28- inconstant

PAI: 0.3

4.0- 6.5

Dec- 27/- 28

(lower dangers after solar activity rose again on Dec- 24 and caused one heavier Earthquake on 26)

1-2

M 6.6 - VANUATU - 2010-12-29 06:54 UTC

M 6.3 - SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS - 2010-12-28 08:34 UTC

M 6.2 - VANUATU - 2010-12-26 02:13 UTC

unfortunately. solar.info was not available on Christmas day and I could not make any forecast for 25th and 26th. Since yesterday the service is operating again>

Check the next days for updates!

 

         

DEC- 30/31

 

alert

37- rising

( 31.> 23)

PAI:0.5

6.0- 7.0

heavier Earthquake expectable on:

DEC- 31- JAN- 01 ff

2 M 6.9 - SANTIAGO DEL ESTERO, ARGENTINA - 2011-01-01 09:56 UTC

sun activity still rising- check the next days for updates!

         
                       
Assorted material
   

RELATION SUN ACTIVITY AND EARTHQUAKES ( resp.Volcano activities)

Many had the idea, there could be a relation of Earthquakes to the sun`s activity. As the suns spots are an indicator for the SUN`s activity, I have added a GREEN CURVE of the suns spots to the daily earthquake map>The reason:, On begin of APRIL, a greater Sun- protuberance caused an immense Sun wind, carrying particles to the earth.

Two days after there was a large earth quake in Baja California, and each day after more than 400 quakes above 2.9 were registered worldwide!

First evaluations show, that Earthquakes do not directly happen synchroniously with sun spots or eruptions, but always 2 days later, when usually the particle winds of those "CME" s hit the earth. They therefore must be considered as the energy source which at least amplifies the earth quake energy or even triggers the quakes. >>

the green curve displays the number of so called sun spots. ( index number left times 10>> 3,5 times 10 = 30 measured sun spots). Sun Spots are areas with higher gravity of fusion processes inside the sun , those rise up to the sun surface during periods of higher Sun activity. Along the magnetic field lines are bundled and reversed, what causes huge sun eruption ( coronal mass ejections= CME). The Sun activity ranges in a regular period of 11 years. The next " sun spot maximum will be in 2012. High energetic particles of those CMEs escape the Sun`s immense gravity and drive as sun winds also towards the Earth, where they can have many effects, such as the amplify Earth quakes. Typically, each sun spot causes forms out a more or less strong CME ( coronal mass ejection) or a protuberance ( sun flare)

the blue curve represents s the so called " planetary A index. It represents the total of irritations in the Earth`s magnetic field , caused by those sun winds ( energetic mass particles) those effectively reach the Earth . A add this " Planetary a Index from Middle of April on, as it indicates more precisely, which sun winds reach the Earth and which pread from the S in other directions. to see what has more impact on the earth- the gravity distortions on the sun ( the sun spots) or the particle winds?

An with three month of comparation, I would say: The gravity process ( when the sun spots form out and get visible ) seem to be two days earlier than the earthquakes. Therefore- if this will turn out to be equally in a longer evaulations, sun spots could become a very good indicator and therefor the best tool to predict Earth quakes- The earthquake seem to take place regularly about 2 days after the sun spots ( sun eruptions ) , resp. , when the sun winds of the CME ( very energetic particles) reach the earth. These particles winds impacting on the Earth must not generally or neccessarely be regarded as a trigger to any earth quakes, but they seem to have the capability to trigger, but- at least, to amplify Earth quakes .Unfortunately I have no data now from years with less sun spot activities. The Tsunami 2004 happened in a year with decreasing activity. Longer evaluations will show what evidence there is.

5. SCIENCE
useful links to different issues
ISSUE EUROPE/ASIA NORTH AMERICA SOUTH AMERICA AUSTRALIA PACIFIC AFRIKA videos showing direct earthquake impacts (shocking!!):
EARTH QUAKES>   Science daily          
VOLCANOES >
DESCRIPTION: Iceland Volcanoes and Volcanics
       
TECTONIC>   North american plate South American plate PACIFIC PLATE
    Caribbean plate NASCA plate       y
    Caribbean Geology & Tectonics        
subduction zones > TransAtlantic Mid-ocean ridge          
SOLAR ACTIVITY> Nas.com us. gov.-Sun Survey Solar Terrestrial Activity Report add infos: global tectonic plate moving ( nasa/wiki)        
Solar Activity Monitor SOHO- Solar and Heliosheric monitor / us.gov.)            
GEOLOGY
( Geophysical reasearch letters) Will present day glacier retreat increase volcanic activity?
             
CLIMATE>                
CATASTROPHY Cataclysmic pole shift hypothesis              
TSUNAMIS > Geology News ( scientific)current events:Tsunamis            

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