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DATE:
16.06.2015
last updated on
2014

DECEMBER 05 at: 21:30 UTC

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THIS PAGE IS NO MORE IN USE!!!

 

 

SEP- 23 2013- I was busy today ! - TODAY`S update is late, but under procedure now!
   
click here for my linklist to all archived solar and terrestrial blogs back to 2010

ARCHIVED REPORTS OF MY SOLAR TERRESTRIAL BLOG

2014 >

           

2013 >

   

2012 >

 

 

2011 >

 

2010 >

remark: 2010 has no monthly archives but 1 archive of the entire year-
           
                 

SUB ARCHIVES:

click here for my archive with earth directed CMEs and SEPs 2013            
    click here for my archive with earth directed CMEs and SEPs 2014            
 

According to NASA, this 24th. 11 year sun spot cycle has probably a " twin peak"- the second in 2015. This project therefore will be prolongued.

THE 11 YEAR SUN SPOT CYCLE-

LAST MAXIMUM ACTIVITY IN: 2012/ 13 NEXT: APPR. in 2024

SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG

- monthly report archive -

DECEMBER 2014

 

note: as the solar sun spot activity is decreasing now, major events are expected to get less at least in next years. (next cycle minimum expected in 2019)

.Therefor, this project is also limited now to basic updates. In July 2014 I decided to update this page only after significant event and changes and to turn this page into an monthly page that will cover significant events and can be archived then in that form.

^CURRENT VIEW ON THE SUN (SDO)

                    ^REAL TIME SOLAR CORONA (SoHO)  
research and documentary of the 24th solar cycle with evaluation of certain geoeffective Solar activities (esp. polarised rotating CMEs and SEPs) with coincident terrestrial events such as :
VOLCANO / HOTSPOT ACTIVITIES- EARTHQUAKES- (tTHUNDER_)STORMS- RAPIDE (PERMAICE) MELTDOWNS/ METHANHYDRATES- INDUCED CURRENTS (TECH) - WHALE BEACHINGS- OTHER...

 

SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG/ CONTENTS:
solar terrestrial blog/ START
solar terrestrial blog/ latest events
solar terrestrial blogs/ event logs/ 2014
related pages:
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first evaluations (2010- 2012):
First evaluations of solar- terrestrial events
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^ 360° NEAR REAL TIME VIEW ON THE SUN ( STEREO A & B)

scientific reviews/ NASA solar project(as far as available)

NASA:

unknown
earlier:
 
 
 
TRAFFIC LIGHT ALERT SYSTEM:
WATCH/ ATTENTION LOW: RISING HIGH DECREASING:

 

ESSENTIAL SOURCES ON SOLAR ACTIVITIES; Satellite Real Time images and data plots, weblinks etc....click here to expand and close the collapsible panel to read all..
CLICK HERE FOR INTERNATIONAL MEDIA AND NEWS SOURCES & OTHER EXTERNAL LINKS- DAILY NEWS FROM WHERE IT HAPPENS!..click here to expand and close the collapsible panel to read all..
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EVENT LOG/ DECEMBER 2014
major events/final archive of the month
   
                 

2014

MONTH

DECEMBER

DAY:

20

< date refers to available event data and summaries

click here for previous days reports  
                 
X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX: FlARES/ CME/ SEP:

ERUPTIVE ACTIVITIES: RADIO BURST AND EMISSIONS

MAJOR EARTH DIRECTED CME EVENTS (M+):

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME:

expectable CME IMPACT SIZE: CH High Speed Solar winds (HSS). GEOMAGNETIC STORMS
SEP PARTICLE EVENT STATUS: (internal report only )
PROTONS (PHASE I) ACTIVE ELECTRONS (PHASE II) FINAL DISCHARGE (PHASE III) :
MINOR SEP on 20141214( > 1,5 pfu.) > 2 MeV Electrons > 1.000 pfu PREVIOUS ALERT LEVEL!
GEOPHYSICAL EFFECTS: GEOPHYSICAL EFFECTS: GEOPHYSICAL EFFECTS:
VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES / MAINLY ON HOT SPOTS( SOUTH POLAR TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (-) TORNADOES, THUNDERSTORMS, VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (m. northern Hemisphere)

COOLING DOWN & CONTRACTION OF THE EARTH MANTLE AND TECTONIC - PREVIOUSLY HEATED UP BY THE PROTON IMPACT and ELECTRON EFFECTS.

NOAA/ SWPC ALERTS (protons/ electrons) > MAJOR AND potential CATATROPHIC SUBDUCTION QUAKES with magnitudes (> M 8 or even > M 9 ) high enough to create a substantial and widespread Tsunami, if quakes occure subseas.
no NOAA warning available!
 
HIGHER ( C Level) AR 12235/ M 8. 7 on20141217/ X 1.8 on 20141220 TYPE II/ IV EMISSION//10 cm RADIO BURST X 1.8 LDE on 20141220/ 20141222 halo/ medium strong low (20141215) G 1  
NOAA/ SWPC alerts NOAA/ SWPC report:           NOAA/ SWPC report :  
         
PREVIOUS ALERTS: 20141218: 20141218:         20141218  
major previous events>      
                 
                 
LAST MAJOR EVENT>
   
20141219: STEREO has again a transmission blackout during these events

 

20121220: ( images and plots 4 and 5<>) AR 12235 continued its activity an produced an X 1.8 LDE flare on 20121220 at about 00: 15 UTC, The first stronger M 8.7 flare on 20141218 was not associated to a Coronal mass ejection (CME) , while SoHO images indicate that the X 1.8 flare on 20141220 indeed has produced a CME . If the high anergies produced by those sun spots can´t really escape from the Sun, the background flux will rise and the eneretic pressure any time will be unleashed with a major CME or SEP. THe x ray bg flux remains again on C level since days . THIS MIGHT BE AN INDICATOR FOR ANOTHER UPCOMING- STRONGER SEP!

 

(2) SDO: M 8.7 LDE on 20141217/ 06:07 UTC
20141220/ 7:30- SoHO indicates a halo CME
(4)x- ray flux/ 20141218- 20
   
   

 

 

 

               

2014

MONTH

DECEMBER

DAY:

17

< date refers to available event data and summaries

click here for previous days reports  
                 
1.1: CURRENT SPACE WEATHER ALERTS  

 

 

latest RSGA hazard report >
DATE: 20141217
SOLAR PROTON EVENTS (SPE- also SEP (= solar energetic particles or: SAP (= solar accelerated protons)
 
X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX: FlARES/ CME/ SEP:

ERUPTIVE ACTIVITIES: RADIO BURST AND EMISSIONS

MAJOR EARTH DIRECTED CME EVENTS (M+):

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME:

expectable CME IMPACT SIZE: CH High Speed Solar winds (HSS). GEOMAGNETIC STORMS
SEP PARTICLE EVENT STATUS: (internal report only )
PROTONS (PHASE I) ACTIVE ELECTRONS (PHASE II) FINAL DISCHARGE (PHASE III) :
NEW SEP (20141101/ after 12 UTC) > 2 MeV Electrons > 1.000 pfu PREVIOUS ALERT LEVEL!
GEOPHYSICAL EFFECTS: GEOPHYSICAL EFFECTS: GEOPHYSICAL EFFECTS:
VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES / MAINLY ON HOT SPOTS( SOUTH POLAR TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (-) TORNADOES, THUNDERSTORMS, VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (m. northern Hemisphere)

COOLING DOWN & CONTRACTION OF THE EARTH MANTLE AND TECTONIC - PREVIOUSLY HEATED UP BY THE PROTON IMPACT and ELECTRON EFFECTS.

NOAA/ SWPC ALERTS (protons/ electrons) > MAJOR AND potential CATATROPHIC SUBDUCTION QUAKES with magnitudes (> M 8 or even > M 9 ) high enough to create a substantial and widespread Tsunami, if quakes occure subseas.
no NOAA warning available!
 
HIGHER ( C Level) 20141217/ 5:07 UTC: M 9 flare/ AR 12235 TYPE II/ IV EMISSION//10 cm RADIO BURST 20141217/ 5:07 UTC / AR 12235 20141219 strong and fully halo low (20141215) G 1  
NOAA/ SWPC alerts NOAA/ SWPC report:           NOAA/ SWPC report :  
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 

1.2.2 LATEST MAJOR FLARES, CMEs

find previous report in archive November 2014
   
LAST MAJOR EVENT>
   
   
(1) SDO: C 1.5 LDE / 20141217/ 01:12
(2) SDO: M8 LDE on 20141217/ 06:07 UTC
     
  20141217: 05:07 UTC: nested AR 12235- while just croosing th solar meridian- enhanced its activity and produced an C 1,5 LDE early this morning followed by a M 8 LDE flare peaking at 05:07 UTC. There seems to be an associated CME which is fully halo and will arrive around 290141219 and cause likely at least major geomagnetic storming and some strong aurora borealis.
 

20141215: a strange not strong but extremely fast explosion of a filament in the Southeastern quadrant occured on the Sun on Dec 14. Source was again the nested active region 12235 which was as AR12209 active during the last rotation period and was AR 12192 two rotration periods earlier, when it produced 4 strong X class flares in a row. X Ray background flux is again near C level. There is a kind of gravity or contraction zone right in the center of the visible solar disc ( see star map by solen,.info as image 5 >) , that passed the meridian on December and which might by responsible for the overall flaring activites around , those seem to occure deeper within the Suns gaz hull while surface flare activity from single active regions is currently very low.

On 20141213 occured another solar eruption that temporarely knocked out almost all and even the earth near satellites like GOES form 12 until 24 UTXC .ONlyx SDO was able to submit an image of the event which was a stronger filament eruption from the Northern edge of the central coronal hole associated to the nested Sun spot configuration which I could track back yet to May 2014.. The eruption however was associated to a short time increase in integral proton flux, that rose to 2.5 pfu. the image taken by STEREO during the filament eruption on Dec 12 after 06 UTC shows that the nested sun spot configuration with its on the front side produces atpye flaring, which

Its very important so far to observe that deveolopment now especially over christmas ! Many tourist have booked their holidays during that time and in those regions which might be affected by such a stronger quake above 8 or even M 9 which might occures subseas in the region of the EASTERN PACIFIC (might by in the Southern or Northern hemisphere. It might be be offshore Chile or Alaska or around New Zealand however nearer to the American pacific coast, than the previous mega quake in japan in the year 2011.

Such a strong quake will not happen if another solar SEP should occure until then, which would again heat up the earth mantle and start another cycle of long term SEPs events. The SEPs will however hget less in the next year and so such a stronger quakes wil. however come anyway whether sooner or later doesn`t really matter.

 

(special& continued report:) THE LARGE AND MYSTERIOUS SOLAR SURFACE REGION THAT HAS A CONFIGURATION THAT REMAINED WIDELY UNCHANGED SINCE at least ONE YEAR!

I yet just traced this large region covering at least a quarter of the solar disc back to May 2011. ( see previous archive reports) This review has shown , that the entire configuration remained almost unchanged since then. On 20141215, the main and mostly only active region on the entire disc, active region 12235 produced an extreme fast filament eruption , AR 12235 is a nested stationary sun spot cluster and forms with another active region and a large coronal hole a very active configuration that persists since at least one year( I have just not traced it further back yet) AR 12235 was AR12209 active during the last rotation period and was AR 12192 two rotation periods earlier, when it produced 4 strong X class flares in a row .The configuration covers more than a quarter of the solar disc and has a kind of gravity center with a coronal hole stretching towards the Northern pole an has also a low spotted area which is also but less active than AR 12235. which is situated 15- 30 ° further in the east . (> images 5 and 6 . During all that time this nested AR was and is only AR on the visible that produced flares and CMEs. Currently the entire configuration seems to be active and produces a type of flaring resp shoots out hot gazes all over the area it covers.. The most active AR in it- AR 12235 became smaller yet during previous periods and then began to grown again., Currently it appears rather small ) . What is it and what does this big are doe next ? Nobody knows...Allthough humans observe the Sun meanwhile day and night, much about our central star is still more a mystery and an still good for some surprises.

( image 4 >) satellite transmissions were repeatedly knocked out between 20141213 and 14 and there was a short rise in integral Proton flux on 20141213/ 6 UTC when values rose to 2,5 pfu until 20141216/ 00 , when vaklues were back again at +/- 0.1 pfu. as usual . But satellite imagery that needs light to make any image cannot cover those proton events and where these SEPs actually occure. However,: STEREO with its infra red usually can at least cover secondary events ( the protons do accelerate and heat up gazes on the solar surface those emit then ) such are gazes hgeated up after the proton explosion by highest accelerated protons. Butr also Stereo has a transmission blackout on December 13 and 14. theavailable images show an intensive flaring activity on the front side . STEREO also observed a strong type of filament eruption heading from the North Polar solar region ( image 4 >)

We might either get a new SEP soon ( an event that comes more or less out of nowhere) or the effects of the previous SEPs will come to an end: When the current electron accumulation ( which is still exceeding temporarely 1.000 pfu.) will drop, as now further SEP has occured during the past 6 weeks , the earth mantle heated up by these SEPs will cool down and STRONG SUBDUCTION quakes will accompony that process.however: magma intrusion creates something like holes ( aou also can call that underpresssure or defizits) within the earth mantle , So the intensive magma intrusion we can observe onm a global scalesince some years will be logically be always accomponied/ followed by subduction quakes, by those new material is pulled- "dives down" into the earth mantle is melted there and will equalize that defizit.( more see right column)>

 

(1) SDO/ 20141214/ 22:24 UTC
(2) 20121212/ 05:08 UTC
(3 GOES shows a slight increase of integral proton Flux during the events on 201212- 20121215:
(4) STEREO AHEAD: strong filament eruption on 20121212/ 06:51 UTC:
 
 

(5) STAR MAP on 20121210 by solen.info

(6)STAR MAP on 2014121113 ( one rotation period earlier!)      
   
                 

 

 

 

               

2014

MONTH

DECEMBER

DAY:

01- 05

< date refers to available event data and summaries

click here for previous days reports  
LATEST TROPICAL STORMS
     
NEW: NASA earth data/ global satellite viewer
     

 

                     
           

SuTyphoon Hagupit

20141201 WESTERN PACIFIC                
EVOLUTION: 20141203   105 MPH (+) 140.5° E 7.5° N WNW 1200 km West of PHILIPPINES TS (2)    
  20141206   150 MPH (+) 127.9° E 12.1° N W 200 KM W of NORTHERN PHILIPPINES TS (4)    
                     
Dr. Jeff Masters/ wunderground. com/

20141205

               

<<< wunderground.-com/ 20141205: Super Typhoon Hagupit Closes in on the Philippines

Heavy rains and huge waves are already pounding the Philippines and over half a million people have been evacuated as Super Typhoon Hagupit closes in on the storm-weary islands. Hagupit briefly fell below the 150 mph wind threshold needed to maintain its "Super Typhoon" designation on Thursday, but is intensifying once again. At 9 am EST Friday, Hagupit was a very dangerous Category 4 super typhoon with 150 mph winds and a central pressure of 915 mb. Hagupit--Filipino for "Smash"--exploded into a mighty Category 5 storm with 180 mph winds and a central pressure of 905 mb on Wednesday, but weakened on Thursday due to moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, plus an eyewall replacement cycle that caused the inner eyewall to collapse and be replaced by an outer eyewall with a larger diameter. An eyewall replacement cycle often causes a temporary weakening of a tropical cyclone, followed by a re-strengthening as the storm consolidates around its new eyewall. That appears to be the case with Hagupit, which microwave satellite images show has now finished its eyewall replacement cycle. Satellite loopsshowed that the typhoon had a larger 17-mile diameter eye surrounded by very intense eyewall thunderstorms that were expanding in areal coverage and intensity early Friday morning (U.S. time). However, this intensification process had halted by late Friday morning. Hagupit is over warm ocean waters of 29°C (84°F) and is under moderate wind shear of 15 knots. The eyewall is not as intense on the south side, due to shearing action of strong upper-level winds from the southeast. ...read more...

 
                     
                 

(the watchers/ 20141203) Morocco hit again by heavy rainfall and deadly floods

New rounds of torrential rains triggered floods that have killed 11 people in Morocco so far. Several thousand homes were damaged or destroyed, roads cut and power networks damaged. At least 250 villages had been cut off. The severe weather has spread to affect parts of southern Spain, the Canary Islands and Algeria.Strong storms lashed the south Morocco again on November 28, just a week after a violent storm system left 36 dead. Many rivers burst their banks and caused widespread damage, especially in the Guelmim region 200 kilometers (125 miles) south of Agadir, which has been declared a disaster area. Whole districts in the Guelmim region on the edge of the Sahara desert were under water after dikes were breached. Agadir received more than 250 millimeters (10 inches) of rainfall, or the equivalent of an entire year's amount.read more...

 

(Jeff Masters/ wunderblog) The 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Ends With Below-Average Activity

The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season is officially in the books, ending up with below average activity--8 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) that was 63% of the 1981 - 2010 median. The 2014 numbers were below the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, and way below the averages from the active hurricane period 1995 - 2013: 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median. The death and damage statistics for the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season were gratifyingly low: there were only five deaths (four from Hurricane Gonzalo in the Lesser Antilles and one from Tropical Storm Dolly in Mexico), and total damages from all storms were less than $500 million....read more.-..

 
                     
                 

euronews/ 20141201: Five dead after heavy storms in south of France:

At least five people have died after heavy storms in the south of France close to the border with Spain.The latest victim was a 73-year-old man who died of heart failure while driving through flooded roads in the Pyrenees-Orientales region.On Sunday, the equivalent of a month’s worth of rain fell in one day.More than 3,000 people have been forced to evacuate their homes.An eight-year-old girl is still missing after violent storms on Thursday and Friday triggered flash floods,The government saysthe flooding is already more serious than deadly storms in 1999.In Spain, the floods have affected Girona and Catalonia, along the Mediterranean coast.Firefighters found the body of a 20-year-old woman who had disappeared after falling into the river Llierca, in the inland Garrotxa area

(BBC/ 20141128) Gaza floods: UN declares state of emergency

The United Nations has declared a state of emergency in the Gaza Strip after two days of heavy rain led to severe flooding.No casualties have been reported but hundreds of people have been evacuated and 63 schools are closed for the day in Gaza City.More than 400,000 Palestinians have been displaced since the 50-day summer conflict with Israel ended in August.In October international donors pledged $5.4bn (£3.4bn) for rebuilding Gaza. Heavy rains which began on Wednesday hit the small territory at a difficult time, as thousands of Gazan families still live in communal shelters or the ruins of their own homes after the conflict....read more...

 

 
               
   

 

 

               
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL DATA AND EVENTS
solar data by: solen.info NASA/  
latest data (external sources):
SUN OBSERVERS:
OTHERS:
 
                       

AUG 2014: DAILY SOLAR REVIEWS ARE BEING REDUCED TO SIGNIFICANT SOLAR ACTIVITY DEVELOPMENTS !

means: you find only full reports, that cover all related data, if stronger activities occure. Some monthly archives might therefor contain only one daily review,. others might contain more. depending on the evolution of solar sun spot activity after the peak was reached on 2013

 
     

 

 

               
                 

2015

MONTH

JANUARY

DAY:

none yet xx

< date refers to available event data and summaries

click here for previous days reports  

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

note: solar and terrestrial data are always yesterrday`s values!

201412

ACTIVE REGIONS AND CORONAL HOLES AT 23:45 UTC (solen.info)  

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

 

 

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)  

FLARES >

C

   

SOLAR FLUX (sfu.)

 

 

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:    

M

   

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:    

X

 

 
                 
Today`s RSGA/ USAF - report on solar activity >    
         

 

 

     

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS INVOLVED IN MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITIES, CMEs OR SEPS ( other active regions are not posted)

EARTH DIRECTED CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

CLICK HERE FOR LATEST EARTH DIRECTED CMES AND SEP EVENTS (archives)  

STATUS :

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

       

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

 

(SUNSPOTS AFTER 24 UTC)

LONGITUDE next 24 h.

LATITUDE

CLASS/ CONF.*

MAJOR ACTIVITIES:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

EXP. I. MPACT SIZE:

 
                   
 
                   
 

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

            ---
 
solen/info/ active regions>
           
             
 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 
NUMBER POSITION*: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING MAG &remarks  
             
             
             
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

 
ABBREVIATIONS>
NORTH/ SOUTH POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP/ SP CH- EXT)
UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH
RECURR.= RECURRENT
T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL
 

 

 

               
INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX:
               
                     

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT : LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:    
PROTON FLUX back to normal

 

ELECTRON FLUX  

 

   
               
BEGIN/ END:  

 

 

BEGIN/ END:    

 

 

   
   
ACE ( Advanced Composition Explorer) is on and L 1 orbit at the edge between solar and geomagnetic field and measures the intensity and composition of interplanetary solar winds
 
 

 

 

 

           

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

                 

STATUS:

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES 3 day sat environment ( combined plot) GOES integral ELECTRON FLUX- past 3 days* integral proton flux- past 3 days  

QUIET

         

UNSETTLED

 
ACTIVE  
MINOR STORM  

MAJOR STORM

 
HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS  
CME IMPACT/ EFFECTS  
 
 
* see also report below!
 
USAF report on geophysical activity for previous day:>>        
* graph only during significant events
 
       
                       
                     
GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -06 nT (USAF) NEUTRAL NORTHWARD +06 nT (USAF) The Bz component is the value, the geomagnetic field density fluctuates /shifts in North/ South direction such as during CME impacts  
EFFECTIVE PROTONS  

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

GOES (= Geostationary operative environmental satellites) are at geostationary orbit and measure influences / impacts on the geomagnetic field  
new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report and report that represents the highest N/ S amplitude of that day    

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE IMPACTS AND SPACE WEATHER ALERTS ( NOAA):

         
INTEGRAL PARTICLE FLUX:   < NOAA PARTICLE ALERTS >

GEOMAGNETIC STORMS AND RADIATION ALERTS ( NOAA):

 
PARTICLE TYPE:
     

20141106

20141107

SOLAR ALERTS/ INFLUENCES

 

> 10 MeV PROTON FLUX

     
s 2 PROTON STORM;

X RAY > M 5(FLARE ACTIVITY)

 
> 100 MeV PROTON FLUX           TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION  
PARTICLE TYPE:
       

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

 

>0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

       

GEOMAGNETIC STORM/ K INDEX > 4

 

>2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

       
x ray alerts are peaks in solar x ray emissions those occure during flare activities )
 
NEUTRON SYNTHESIS        
TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS are typical indicators for Coronal Mass Ejections ( CME)
 
         
10 cm RADIO BURSTS are typical indicators for STRONGER ERUPTIONS- esp SEPs
 
^remark: orange background means: effect is latent or pending
 
treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu
(1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu
 
         
    < NOAA ALERTS >

CME IMPACTS / SUDDEN IMPULSE ( NOAA):

 
       

 

NOAA/ SUDDEN IMPULSE

EARTH IMPACT ON

SOLAR EVENT :

TYPE OF RELATED SOLAR FLARE OR ACTIVITY

 
               
         
                       
PREVIOUS 1 DAY REPORTS / CURRENT MONTH ( updated during significant activities only)
                 

2014

MONTH

SEPTEMBER

DAY:

06

< date refers to available event data and summaries

click here for previous days reports  

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

note: solar and terrestrial data are always yesterrday`s values!

20140905

ACTIVE REGIONS AND CORONAL HOLES AT 23:45 UTC (solen.info)  

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

124

 

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

340-419

FLARES >

C

22

 

SOLAR FLUX (sfu.)

144

 

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

C 1.1

 

M

   

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

06

 

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

80- 140 nT

CME IMPACT

X

 

 
                 
Today`s RSGA/ USAF - report on solar activity > IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M1 event observed at 06/1709Z from Region 2157 (S14E44). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Sep, 08 Sep, 09 Sep).  
         

 

 

     

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS INVOLVED IN MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITIES, CMEs OR SEPS ( other active regions are not posted)

EARTH DIRECTED CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

CLICK HERE FOR LATEST EARTH DIRECTED CMES AND SEP EVENTS (archives)  

STATUS :

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

       

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

 

(SUNSPOTS AFTER 24 UTC)

LONGITUDE next 24 h.

LATITUDE

CLASS/ CONF.*

MAJOR ACTIVITIES:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

EXP. I. MPACT SIZE:

 
  12157 60° E 13° S DHC/ EKC          
 
  12158 68° E 14° N CKO/ DKC          
 

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

            ---
 
solen/info/ active regions>
           
             
 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 
NUMBER POSITION*: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING MAG &remarks  
CH 634 CENTRAL/ NORTH GROWING   20140905- 06    
             
             
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

 
ABBREVIATIONS>
NORTH/ SOUTH POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP/ SP CH- EXT)
UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH
RECURR.= RECURRENT
T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL
 

 

 

               
INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX:
           
 
                     

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT : LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:    
PROTON FLUX INCREASED

RISING AFTER201408021/ o8 UTC and 05/ after 00 UTC

ELECTRON FLUX BACK to NORMAL

slight rise after 20140612/ after 10 UTC

   
               
BEGIN/ END:  

 

 

BEGIN/ END:    

 

 

   
   
ACE ( Advanced Composition Explorer) is on and L 1 orbit at the edge between solar and geomagnetic field and measures the intensity and composition of interplanetary solar winds
 
 

 

 

 

           

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

                 

STATUS:

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment /

GOES integral ELECTRON FLUX- past 3 days* proton flux- past 3 days  

QUIET

 

UNSETTLED

 
ACTIVE  
MINOR STORM  

MAJOR STORM

 
HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS  
CME IMPACT/ EFFECTS  
 
 
* see also report below!
 
USAF report on geophysical activity for previous day:>>        
* graph only during significant events
 
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 430 km/s at 06/2049Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 06/1531Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 06/0512Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9 pfu at 06/0740Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 286 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (07 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (08 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (09 Sep). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (07 Sep), are likely to cross threshold on day two (08 Sep) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (09 Sep).
     
                       
                     
GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -09 nT (USAF) NEUTRAL NORTHWARD + 11 nT (USAF) The Bz component is the value, the geomagnetic field density fluctuates /shifts in North/ South direction such as during CME impacts  
EFFECTIVE PROTONS  

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

           
new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report and report that represents the highest N/ S amplitude of that day    
 

 

 

 

 

 

                 

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE IMPACTS AND SPACE WEATHER ALERTS ( NOAA):

         
INTEGRAL PARTICLE FLUX:   < NOAA ALERTS >

GEOMAGNETIC STORMS AND RADIATION ALERTS ( NOAA):

 
PARTICLE TYPE:

20140905

20140906

20140907

20140906

20140907

SOLAR ALERTS/ INFLUENCES

 

> 10 MeV PROTON FLUX

> 0.1 pfu. < 1,2 pfu.

> 0.1 pfu. < 1,2 pfu.

+/- 0.1 pfu.

NONE

NONE

X RAY > M 5(FLARE ACTIVITY)

 
> 100 MeV PROTON FLUX back to normal back to normal back to normal   NONE TYPE II/ IV TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION  
PARTICLE TYPE:

20140905

20140906

20140907

NONE

NONE

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

 

>0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>1.000 < 25.000 pfu (+) >4.500< 30.000 pfu (+) dropping after new sEP  

G1 (expected)

NONE

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

 

>2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>100< 450 (-) >220 > 750 () rising  
x ray alerts are peaks in solar x ray emissions those occure during flare activities )
 
NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA (3) NO CURRENT DATA UNKNOWN  
TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS are typical indicators for Coronal Mass Ejections ( CME)
 
         
10 cm RADIO BURSTS are typical indicators for STRONGER ERUPTIONS- esp SEPs
 
^remark: orange background means: effect is latent or pending
 
treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu
(1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu
 
         
    < NOAA ALERTS >

CME IMPACTS / SUFDDEN IMPULSE ( NOAA):

 
       

 

NOAA/ SUDDEN IMPULSE

EARTH IMPACT ON

SOLAR EVENT :

TYPE OF RELATED SOLAR FLARE OR ACTIVITY

 
       

20140906/ 25: 24 UTC

20140904

LARGE FILAMENT ERUPTION ON NORTHERN SOLAR HEMISPHERE

 
         
                       
                       
alt
 
 

 

 

 

 

 

                 

 

 

       
         
         

 

 

       
click here for: LATEST SIGNIFICANT SOLAR EVENTS ( earth directed CMEs, SEPs, satellite images and data)
       
WEEKLY SATELLITE REVIEW OF SOLAR ACTIVITIES (AR, flares, CMEs, SEPs)
   
     
LAST MAJOR SOLAR EVENT/ EVOLUTION

SEPTEMBER 2014

                 
   
LOGS:                    
DATE and TIME: AR/images REPORT>

   
IMAGES:
PLOTS and OTHER:
 
20140901/ 17:45 UTC                    

CME (DATE/ TIME >>)

20140910/ 17:45 UTC ERUPTION TYPE: X 1 flare at 17:45 uTC FULLY HALO CME estimated CME arrrival: 20140912      
 
(01) SDO/ AIA (02) SOHO/ LASCO C3 (02) SOHO/ LASCO C3 (03) STEREO( Ahead (05) SDO/ AIA NASA/ Dl RAP- PROTON AND X_RAY IMPACTS (07) SDO/ AIA GOES PROTON flux (1) GOES X-RAY flux (1) SOLAR CME/ SEP EVENT LOG :  
       

SEP (DATE AND TIME of SOLAR EVENT

 

20140910/ 19:03 (NOAA*)

 
TRACKING NR.:  
   
ACTIVE REGION:  
AR 12158.  
SUN COORDINATES:
  20140910/ 19:54 UTC 20140911/ 00:30 UTC         PROTON IMPACT: after 21 UTC   02° E- 16° N  
               
* SEP eruption time= time of 10 cm RADIO BURST
 
DATE and TIME: AR/images REPORT>

   
IMAGES:
PLOTS and OTHER:
 
20140901/ 18:59 UTC                    

CME (DATE/ TIME >>)

  ERUPTION TYPE:            
 
(01) SDO/ AIA (02) SOHO/ LASCO C3 (03) STEREO( Ahead (04) SDO/ AIA (05) SDO/ AIA NASA/ Dl RAP- PROTON AND X_RAY IMPACTS (07) SDO/ AIA GOES PROTON flux (1) GOES X-RAY flux (1) SOLAR SEP EVENT LOG :  
   

SEP (DATE AND TIME of SOLAR EVENT

 
20140901/prior to 11: 54?  
TRACKING NR.:  
   
ACTIVE REGION:  
NORTH POLAR SOLAR REGION  
SUN COORDINATES:
20140901/ 18:59 UTC (SEP) 20140901/ 12:42 20140901/ 10:51 UTC 20140902/ 08:36 UTC 20140901/ 11:54 UTC Proton impact on NASA D-RAP (20140902/ 23UTC)          
                   
     
 

 

 

 

       

LATEST AND CURRENTLY ACTIVE SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS (SEP)

             
LATEST SOLAR SEPS ARTICLE EVENTS: ACCELERATED PROTONS/ ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS : ( event logs)  
SEP EVENT/ event logs this log represents the latest event evolution of terrestrial SEP impacts- earlier events are archived here. NASA/ D-RAP-REAL TIME global (heat) impact of solar protons and x-rays  
 
 

ACTIVE SOLAR SEP/ LOG

latest significant SEP >> /20141101/ time: unknown MEDIUM > 1 > 10 pfu. ( 4 days) CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE PARTICLES >> PHASE I (PROTONS) PHASE II (> 10 MeV ELECTRONS)
PHASE III (DISCHARGE)
 
           
previous, accumulated SEPs >> 201400910/ after 18 UTC 20140825/ 18 UTC 20140405/ 12 UTC 20140227 ( X 1.2)  

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS/ CURRENT STATE    
SEP event > 10 MeV PROTON EMISSION /20141101/ time: unknown 201409011/ after 15UTC 20141106/ 00 UTC > 1 < 10 pfu. unknown      
                     
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS ACTIVITY/ BEGIN: END: LATEST VALUES: PEAK VALUES: reaching threshold on >    
INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold = E > 1.000 pfu)
20141021/ 07 UTC ongoing   20141023/ 18.000 pfu exceeding 1.000 pfu on 20141021/ 14 UTC    

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : CURRENT STATE::    
SEP event > 10 MeV PROTON EMISSION /20140910/ after 11UTC 201409010/ 18:15 UTC 20140914/ 09 UTC > 1 < 100 pfu.        
                     
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS ACTIVITY/ BEGIN: END: LATEST VALUES: PEAK VALUES: reaching threshold on >    
INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold = E > 1.000 pfu)
20140922/ 10:30 ongoing     exceeding 1.000 pfu on 20141001    
                     

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : CURRENT STATE::    
SEP event > 10 MeV PROTON EMISSION AR 12151/20140901/ after 11UTC 20140901/ after 21 UTC ongoing > 1 < 10 pfu. very low ( 1.000- 3000 km/ s first event in records with unusually extreme slow protons    
                     
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS ACTIVITY/ BEGIN: END: LATEST VALUES: PEAK VALUES: reaching threshold on >    
INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold = E > 1.000 pfu)
20140901 ongoing > 10 MeV ELectrons Y 1.000 pfu fluctuating first time that proton and electrons both exceed treshold levels- interrupted by new SEP on 20140910    
                     

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : CURRENT STATE::    
SEP event > 10 MeV PROTON EMISSION not evaluated yet 20140825/ after 18 UTC 20140827( 00 UTC low (+/- 1 pfu. ( 10 x)   electron breakdown    
                     
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS ACTIVITY/ BEGIN: END: LATEST VALUES: PEAK VALUES: reaching threshold on >    
INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold = E > 1.000 pfu)
interrupted by new SEP latent ---- > 1.000 pfu. 20140831    
                     
 

 

 

   
PREVIOUS SOLAR SEPS AND SEP SERIALS, those are still active ( effective and interfer/ accumulate ):
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS ACTIVITY/ BEGIN: END: LATEST VALUES: PEAK VALUES: reaching threshold on >
 
INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold = E > 1.000 pfu)
20140511/ 11 UTC repeatedly interupted (by new proton events NEW INCREASE ON 20160802      
INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold = E > 1.000 pfu)
20140511/ 11 UTC repeatedly interupted (by new proton events NEW INCREASE ON 20160717      
INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold = E > 1.000 pfu)
20140511/ 11 UTC repeatedly interupted (by new proton events NEW INCREASE ON 20160618      
INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold = E > 1.000 pfu)
20140423/ 17 UTC 20140429/00UTC knocked down by protons
20140429/ 00 UTC. E flux was knocked bylate proton activity (SEP/ 20140418)
20140425/ 13 UTC > 1.000 pfu

(20140425/ 13 UTC

 
INTEGRAL>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)
(20140421/ 15 UTC rising
20140426/ 15 UTC > 100.000 pfu
---

(20140421/ 15 UTC

 

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : CURRENT STATE::  
SEP event > 10 MeV PROTON EMISSION 20140418/ 13:19 UTC: M 7.8 LDE flare in AR 12036 20140507/ 19 UTC 20140711 low ( > 01. < 0.8 pfu)   electron breakdown  
SEP event > 10 MeV PROTON EMISSION 20140418/ 13:19 UTC: M 7.8 LDE flare in AR 12036 20140418/ after 13 UTC 201404210/ 09 UTC > about 60 pfu. near the speed of light 20140430: protons appproached again from polar Earth orbit-  
             

meaning of background colors>

yellow= this particles are currently active/ dominant red= strong event        
} orange background = ACTIVE electrons/ but their effectivity is PENDING OR INTERFERED BY PROTONS/ or> PROTONS are still too fast to envolve significant effects
       
         
         
 

 

 

 
CURRENT SEP/ PROTON EFFECTS May 23- 2014: Protons- particulary from the high speed SEP on APR 18. partic. also from minor recent solar eruptions (AR 12071) are still active in the geomagnetic field with an increase of magmatic activities at the same time. At 22 UTC a sudden increase of electron density likely marked the end of the effectivity these protons had in the geomagneticmfield over the last days and weeks  
ELECTRON EFFECTS>

20140610: integral electrons flux signficantly began to rise and might reach tresholds soon in the coming days. The increase followed a strong depression of the electron flux by former SEP and solar protons effects and indicate that these protons effects those lasted for more than 1 month are over now. hot spot activities have again dcreased yet in the last weeks The electron accumulation now will bring again high temperatures and droughts to the Northern hemisphere, as welll as sudden tornadoes, thunderstorms . I am not sure, how the high tension of the integral electron fluxmight induce cururents into ships on high seas power grids and other electric devices but several servers ship incidents those occured during electron accumulations in the greomag field suggest that ea. are capable for.

The current state of particles within the geomag. field is after quite a dozen part. accumulating SEPs since autum 2013 is rather confusing and data plots dont`t allow exact results.

might persist for several weeks now after those these electrons will finally discharge. This last SEP phase expected in about 3 weeks sometime end of June 2014 ( if no further solar SEPs occures) with cooling down of and contraction effects on the affected tectonic plates those likely finally will trigger strong and CATASTROPHIC earthquakes with magnitudes above M 9!!

20140607: The integral electron flux dropped again into negative values and continued so since JUne 03. The source of the disturbance are likely protons still active either from previous events or from recent solar protons emissions into interplanetary space

20140523/ 22 UTC There was a sudden increase of the integral electron flux after 22 UTC. There was no similar related event found on ACE data , thus the increase seems not to be related to a solar event, but rather marks the end of the effectivity , solar protons had on the geomagnetic field during the last days and weeks

20140523: During the second half of May 2014 , electrons were first rising as expected following the strong high speed SEP on April 18 ( with protons almost at the speed of light) . After May 17, the electron energy was again neutralized by those still active and after May 23 also by newly incoming protons ( activities in AR 12071) and fell into minus values, what does not mean, that these electrons would lose their cinetic energy by that . They rather get compressed and electrically neutralised by protons circulating with the field lines , what at least temporarely hampers their ability to cause thunderstorms and strong tornadoes or induced currents.

Temperature anomalies around the Northern pole continue since end of 2013 and brought again climatical extremes to the medium latitudes.

 
orange background >means: The electron effects of the last SEO were overlapsed by new SEP eventand currently deactivated or: HIGH SPEED SEP. Protons are still to fastto envolve significant effects  
SEP EVENT HISTORY :
   
20140418/
13:19 UTC
complex nested solar region AR 12036 (35- 37 produced and M 7,.8 LDE flare peaking with a CME at 13:19 UTC. The event was associated with a medium strong SEP. First Protons arrived soon after 13 uTC- thus were accelerated near to the speed of light,due to the fact , that the eruption took place near the central solar meridian and the proton speed is highest radially to the eruption center. means, that some proton effects such as hot spot activities will delay resp takle place slowly
 
20140413- 16
 
The integral Electron flux began to increase after strongly been compressed by active protons. (20140415) Integral electron flux is expected to exceed treshold of 1.000 pfu on 20140416
 
20140405
after 12 UTC
Proton flux slightly increased to max 1.0 pfu after solar event
 
20140325
08 UTC
Integral,proton flux rose after CME event on 20140324 to values up to 1 pfu.
 
20140317
 
Integral proton flux has decreased to normal values after March 07. But the high amount of protons those impacted during this long lasting proton storm ist still effective with heat in the earth body and mantle .Hot spot activities are still present on the Canary islands. The proton influence also still knocks down the integral electron flux to zero and even into negative values. There is a slight recovery of the electron since March 17 . Values will further increase and exceed 100 pfu at any time in about 1 or two weeks ( SEP phase II) , if no new SEP occures.
 
     
20140228
 
Integral Proton flux increased further on February 28 and reached 100 pfu early in the morning. I have not reviewed the solar events yet. but protons storms/ eruptions are what I call " the invisible eruption"
 
                       
                       
 

 

 

   
                       
         
                     

 

 

data for this reports and forecasts are exlusively taken from reliable sources such as NASA, NOAA and others.

 

all forecasts are without guarantee! Alle Vorhersagen sind ohne Gewähr!

provided by:

alien-homepage.de
Impressum/contact

 

----------------------------

 

 

APPENDIX:

 

notices on this page and its development

changes 2014:

July 2014: note: as the solar sun spot activity is decreasing now, major events will get less at least until May June 2014 .Therefor, this project is also limited now to basic updates. In July 2014 I decided to update this page only after significant event and changes and to turn this page into an monthly page that will cover significant events and can be archived then in that form.

January 25- 2014:

2013, after 2 years after the second major> M 9 Earthquake had taken place within on decade and after two years of statistic evaluation and comparation of solar and terestrial data, it became clear , that socalled SEPS would be the solar feature I was looking , being that solar feature, that indeed can even have strongest related and signiciant geophysical effects.

Now in early 2014, the peak off the sun spots cycle seems to be over and related activity visibly have decreased . I dont expect many stronger and significant solar events for the next half year.

Recently I decided, to close the ongoing solar and terrestrial documentary at this point in this form , as it was made until now., whith complete data and event evaluationas as its required for any scientific work . This I did to get this project to a point, that its results would be available and evaluable for further report and can be also a basic for further scientics research

Nevertheless as observations and evaluations have shown , that esp. the socalled SEPs ,this documentary has focussed on, as being the strongest and most geoeffective known type of solar event) do happen MOST frequently during the solar max, but are als present in the same strength all 11 years in between but just in lower number.

So I will continue to watch over all these solar data and event and try to provide a full report and complete coverage in time if any furthe major event should take place ..

so the solar teerrestrial blog will be continued in another simplified and limited form:

 

H. Hummel Munich/ Germany