SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG -11 year solar cycle maximum in 2012- CME alerts and related climatical effects, Earthquakes and Volcanism

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TODAY`S BLOG MIGHT BE RATHER EMPTY- AS INFORMATION WILL COME IN LATER! SCROLL TO FIND LATEST UP TO DATE REPORTS- Feel free to comment or discuss anything in this report with myself and other users in my GOOGLE BLOG ! Also special reports- links photos etc on possible solar related incidents are surely welcome!
About	SIGNIFICANT SOLAR EVENTS AND RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS :
CONTENTS:	NOTICES >	click here on on the panel above for the archived reports of January 2012, already erased from here	visit my page " SUN CONTROL CENTER" with further links, informations and glossaries about hardware and solar terms as used in this report! >
LAYOUT	Some of today`s reports and data fields will be empty, as data and reports in this blog archive are sorted to the date of their events and not by the dates ,when they are published. From February on also solar data will be sorted to the related blog with the same day and date and each day`s blog will therefore only contains events and data of that specific day!
MEDIA NEWS/ REPORTS	Environmental reports will be added either today or later at the time when these are available.
SOLAR DATA	Solar data are always the summery of an entire day . Solar data of the previous day are therefore availabe earliest after midnight and will be from February one also added to the previous day`s blog. Exceptions are observatory images and data, those can be posted the same day , when ( more or less " real time") satellite data show new CME activities.
VOLCANO ACTIVITIES	Global volcano activity data - if not otherwise available - can only posted once per week due to the ( post) weekly activity report published each Thursday by the USGS global volcanism program. Some updates may also sometimes follow later, since some local survey institutes either don`t submit data weekly or report activity changes later, esp. also , if volcanoes are in remote areas. Generally, any volcano is regarded as "active" only if measurable or visible signs indicate surfaces activities. If no further report is made, the status of a previously as "active" reported volcano will be regarded as "unknown". However only increases in volcano activities will become relevant in my evaluations final statistics and graphics of CME events as " relevant" resp. "coincident"
EARTHQUAKE DATA	Earthquake data will be completed the day after.

volcano maps with latest volcano activities worldwide

INTERNAL MAPS:

click on the images or links below to get to my large regional maps, where you find all volcanoes around the world with descriptions , webcams and much more such as ancients sites! . Weekly regular activity updates, special earthquakes events with many functions

world volcano map 1.0

world volcano map version 2.0

Europe and Western Asia

Africa and Arabic peninsula

Central America and Mexico

South America- Northern part

South America- Southern part

Central America and Mexico

Northern America

Kamchatka peninsula

Japan region

Indonesia and Philippines

Australia and Southern Pacific

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related: useful external links and infos, internal maps and charts

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SPACECRAFTS:
SoHO
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
SDO /AIA
Solar Dynamics Observatory
STEREO
Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory
GOES
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites
ACE		<< internal Earthquake statistics- with Sun activity curves : green = SUNSPOT NUMBER, Pink= SOLAR FLUX, blue= PLANETARY A INDEX
Advanced Composition Explorer	click here to see some of the paradox observations made during that solar cycle first possibly by observatory spacecrafts: : CORONAL HOLES THOSE REAPPEAR DURING SEVERAL SOLAR ROTATION PERIODS ON THE SAME HELIOGRAPHIC POSITION
c			meanings of colors used in my Earthquake forecasts
			ORANGE ALERT: The orange background represent an the estimated LATENCY between a CME impact and expectable EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES. The LATENCY (= DELAY)time is longer after multiple CME events- but however can only be ESTIMATED!
	NEW: FIND OUR THE COURSE OF CURRENTLY APPROACHING CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS ( CMEs) at NASA		* alert level 1: (row is backcolored green) low power Earth- quake above 6.0 with no or only little surface damages
			**alert level 2: (row is backcolored yellow)medium power Earth- quake above 6.0- 7.x - with expectable local surface damage
			**alert level 3: (row is backcolored red):high power Earth- quake above 7.0- with the possibility of regional wide ranged damages
^SDO/HMI-active regions	NEW: NASA/ INTEGRATED SPACE WEATHER ANALYSIS SYSTEM- Home	^latest internal CMs impact map / based on geomagnetic data by GOES and ACE	meanings of colors used in my Earthquake forecasts
CURRENT Solar wind speed by ACE	current Boulder planetary K prediction data by:NOAA- Space Weather prediction center	Proton Flux from GOES-13, Electron Flux and GOES Hp from GOES-13 & GOES-15	GOES/ CURRENT X RAY FLUX higher amplitudes indicate solar eruptions with x ray bursts or CME arrivals:


Items used in this report:
WHAT IS MEANT WITH IMMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS IN THIS REPORTS? >>>		* immidiate CME effects can be: volcano eruptions, heavy thunderstorms, radio blackouts,induction effects on wired grid networks ( surge overvoltages)
NOTICES ON SOLAR ACTIVITIES:
DECEMBER 2011		Since October 2011, mainly filament activities and eruptions were the predominant peak activities producing CMEs. The siginificant increase of the size of single sun spots observed since October 2012 continued. . Since middle of December- again significant flare and CME activities in active sun spots regions could be observed again. Currrently- Dec 24 one of the largest sun spots observed this year is rotating into an Earth facing O° position . AR 11384 had no significant penumbra this morning- what is an indicator that it might not produce a major eruoption soon.
JANUARY - 2012		From January 20- 24 three major CMEs impacted one after another on Earth. Some very small but measurable CMEs followed afterwards and raised again the geomagnetic density after JAN - 26. All major eruptions occured in AR 11401/ 02 and peaked with another X 1.7/ F2 event on January 27, when the regions was at appr. 80° W already almost over the Western limb. All three CME in AR 11401/02 exploded above the Sun surface, the plasma matter was distributed into all directions And -also to my surprise- a siginificant flank of this X 1.7 event on January 27 arrived on Earth on Jan- 30 after 17:00 UTC. The arrival was not strong ( minor to medium) but will have at least natural effects. Earthquake activity will delay and forecasts had to be adjusted to the new energetic situation. This new type of eruption- yet observed only in this AR -an "eruptive prominence" caused by discharge of strong magnetic tensions - occured three times after another: First a large eruption- comparable to a hydrogen bomb triggered below surface- rocked throughout the entire AR heaping solar matter upward . The plasma heaped up then interacted with the magnetic field above/ around the AR ( rather at its poles?) With of kind of shortcut , this matter then suddenly interacted in a fast explosion with the magnetic field above the AR what accelerated thisis Sun Plasma again to a CME with a final speed (an absolute record) of - due to the NASA report around 1,553 mi/ s. NASA Goddard space center has launched further research on this event, how far those type of eruptions might pose a danger to satellitesand other equipment. .(you find a link to this report in my blog of Nov- 30) The large eruptions during the last week of January 2012 have again exhausted our Sun for the moment . The Sun "needs a short rest". The total eruptive activity itself goes up an down within a courve and has periods of 1 week or two. At the moment ,the Sun spot number and solar flux have dropped significantly during the last week and both values are now at the lowest level since months. On Jan- 29, sun spot number was below 40 , but began slowly already to raise again the next day. At the same time, temperature dropped worldwide Nevertheless, the energetic impacts of the last CMEs were rather large and are still effective. The mainly affected tectonic plates effected by the impact on Jan 30 were those in the ragne bewteen longutude 75° and 180 ° W: CENTRAL AMERICA- TO WESTERN aLASKA, INCL FIJJI. VANUATU, HAWAII etc: Europe, the Atlantic until the Gulf of Mexico- were theimpact region of all 3 previous CMEs , Highest effected was Central Europe and the Eastern Atlantic. New impcat values are related to previous impacts as possible Tectonic plates heated up by these previous CMEs have got some new energy yesterday and will therefore need a good while resp longer to cool down again- as I believe. Their large overall energetic impact may still create one or two major - still missing- Earthquakes until February 04 or even later , when these process of tectonic plates contracting and cooling down again will really begin
MARCH 2012		MAY- 06- 2012: A LARGE , VERY ACTIVE SUN SPOT GROUP HAS APPEARED ON THE EASTERN LIMB AND WILL ROTATE OVER THE VISIBLE SUN DISC UNTIL MAY 16- THE REGION has already produced M flares and is perharos capable fopr X events. NOAA/ solen.info:New region 11476 [N11E75] rotated partly into view at the northeast limb on May 4 and was numbered the next day by SWPC. As the trailing penumbra is now in view it is obvious that this is a large and complex region capable of producing a major flare. A central penumbra has a magnetic delta structure and frequent flaring is likely to continue as long as that structure persists. Flares: C6.8 at 09:35, impulsive M1.4 at 13:23, impulsive M1.3 at 23:01 UTC. Many flares below the C5 level were recorded as well. APRIL 29- 2012: A new phase of Sun activity observed during the past weeks indicates a new ( more or less typical ACTIVITY PHASE in the last year of the 11 year cycle. Very noticably, the firework is coming towards its peak. Note that the SUN was never observed to intensively like during this cycle and of course- also NASA said !" we have still much to learn". The increased overall activity on the Sun disc ( means: multiple mostly minor eruptive events in a multiple of active region and/ or filaments ) observed since some weeks continued with several minor eruptions in various regions. The type of eruptive activities also changed to mainly prominences. note: all forecast made in this blog are without guarantee!

all earlier blog reports: SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG/ ARCHIVES:

SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG/ ARCHIVES:

(SUN SPOTS EARTHQUAKE AND VOLCANISM/ ARCHIVE- 2011:)click on the month symbols to get to the specific pages of 2011:

2012 >

2011 >

2010 >

NOTE: I WILL APPLY A NEW ARCHIVE SYSTEM IN 2012. CLICK ON THE BUTTON (right) FOR THE NEW ARCHIVE DIRECTORY! >

get local informations >( NEW) collection of international news channels

NEWS CHANNELS: ( collecting of recommendable international news channels is still ongoing...)
AUSTRALIA, INDONESIA, PHILIPPINES	AFRICA	ASIA	AMERICA	EUROPE:
THE HERALD SUN / AUSTRALIA	africareview.com		MSNBC / US	BBC.com
globalpost.				www.euronews.com/
BY COUNTRIES:
EUROPE:	ICELAND REVIEW ONLINE	DER SPIEGEL ONLINE ( Germany)	euronews.com/
	scotsman.com
AUSTRALIA REGION:	THE HERALD SUN / AUSTRALIA	.radioaustralianews.net.au	(FIJI ISLANDS):	fijivillage.com
	stuff.co.nz (NEW ZEALAND)		fijitimes.com
NORTHERN AMERICA	CNN. com	TIME.com /SCIENCE	(SCIENTIFIC)	tgdaily.com
	UNITED PRESS INTERNATIONAL	ABC- news	GLOBAL NEWS (CANADA)	winnipegfreepress.com
	mlive.com/news
	washingtonpost.com	channel6newsonline.com	FAIRBANKS/ ALASKA/ newsminer.com	alaskadispatch.com
CENTRAL AMERICA>	INSIDE COSTA RICA
SOUTHERN AMERICA>
PACIFIC	bigislandvideonews (Hawaii)
AFRICA		allafrica.com	standardmedia.co.ke (KENIA)	ZIMBABWE (Voice of America)
				.thezimbabwean.co.uk
> ARABIA	ARABIC EMIRATES	omanobserver.om	www.iranwpd.co (IRAN)
ASIA	Wijeya Newspapers Ltd.Colombo. Sri Lanka	philippinenews.com	english.ntdtv.com (CHINA)	THE BORNEO POST- ONLINE
	Thejakartapost.com (INDONESIA)	philstar.com/(PHILIPPINES)	zeenews.india.com (INDIA)	chinadaily.com.cn/ (China)
	pattayamail.com (Thailand)	visayandailystar.com (PHIL.)	indianexpress.com ( INDIA)	mdn.mainichi.jp (JAPAN)
ALL REGIONS>	REUTERS.COM	wunderground.com/tropical storms	Earth Observatory( NASA.
	http://your-story.org

GLÖBAL WATCH >	thewatchers.adorraeli.com
VARIOUS & RELATED SCIENTIFIC CHANNELS >	spaceweather.com	treehugger.com	VOLCANO DISCOVERY	EARTH SKY. ORG
	ACCU WEATHER. COM	wired.com/wired science	WUNDERGROUND.com	Nationalgeographic
	science.nasa.gov	spaceweather.com	wired.com	phys.org
ORGANISATIONS	NASA/earthobservatory	http://www.greenpeace.de/		http://foodwatch.com.au/
DIVERSE>	2012 Mysterious Mass Animal Death List (abovetopsecret.com)		poleshift.ning.com	naturalnews.com (food etc)
	Volcano Webcams on wiredscience.com		eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov

Mysterious illness strikes hundreds of flight attendants, causes rashes and hair loss – are ‘toxic uniforms’ really to blame or is it Fukushima?

Hundreds of Alaska Airlines flight attendants have filed a formal complaint about uniforms they suspect might be causing their skin to rash and develop lesions, and their hair to fall out. But based on the timing of the symptoms and their relation to similar symptoms in local marine life and polar bear populations, it appears as though radiation from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster may also be a potential culprit....read more...

Quake shakes up east Texas

(CNN) -- A 4.3-magnitude earthquake rattled eastern Texas early Thursday, the U.S. Geological Survey reported. The quake, at a depth of three miles, was centered near Timpson, about 155 miles east-southeast of Dallas, according to the USGS. It struck at 3:12 a.m. (4:13 a.m. ET). At least one building in Timpson showed damage, with a number of bricks falling to the street below, CNN affiliate KLTV in Tyler, Texas, reported. Ollie Barrett told KLTV that bricks from her chimney came crashing through her roof....read more...

9 May-15 May 2012

This page is updated on Wednesdays. Please see the GVP Home Page for news of the latest significant activity.

Five foods you would never eat if you really knew what they were

What if when you were seated at your favorite restaurant, they handed you a menu which listed all of the REAL ingredients in every dish, without any fluff or “pretty” names for the food you might opt out of eating otherwise? It seems as though the United States is one of the most talented countries at ruining a good thing, and over the past 20 to 30 years, food and beverages are no exception. “May I tell you about our specials?” “Yes, please.” Today we are featuring one of the corporate favorites; chemical-washed connective tissue with pus-milk cheese, topped with hormone-laden special sauce on a bleached bun (cheese burger with non-organic ketchup and mayo). It comes with a 16 ounce, ice cold glass of carbonated, aborted fetal cell soda (Pepsi). (http://www.naturalnews.com)...read more...

EU physicists use 20 new satellites to forecast space weather

The northern lights interfere with radio communications, GPS navigation and satellite communications. Researchers are now going to launch 20 satellites containing world class instruments from the University of Oslo to find out why. Satellites are becoming increasingly important in communications and navigation. This makes us more vulnerable to the northern lights, especially within offshore and aviation. In a worst case scenario an aircraft can lose contact with its surroundings. Oil tankers can struggle with precise navigation...read more...

Update: wildfires in Arizona – May 16, 2012

UPDATED 11:41 a.m. MDT, May 16, 2012 We will update the information and the maps of the fires in Arizona throughout the day on Wednesday. Check back for additional information, which is gathered from various sources, including the US Forest Service, Arizona state agencies, and the National Interagency Fire Center....read more...

some drafts with informations about this project ( stand: July 2011) -uncorrected

some remarks on my solar and terrestrial blog: (uncorrected drafts July 2011 The NOAA and its associated institutes produce their daily "space weather forecast " basically to protect all kinds of satellites necessary for GPS, airplane navigation, radio transmission or for military purposes., Additional to that , special warnings are issued also for operators of power stations and related installations,. those unfortunately are not much noticed yet by responsible people in charge of ( for instance) nuclear power stations all over the world ( compare Fukushima report on page 3) . As it is easyly imaginable, a satellite with its sensitive instruments is just a tiny thing in space, which might therefore receive just a tiny portion of any Earth directed CME. The CME mass ( so called Plasma) itself is so energetic like nothing we know on Earth. A small impact of a large CME might cause irreversible damages on those satellites . The Earth as final destination of a Earth directed CME is an uncomparably larger object on which such a CME will finally impact with all its mass and energetic capibilities. However. the Superquake on December 26- 2004/ SouthWest of Sumatra( see here my special report on page 3) - also triggered by several large CMEs the day before ( possibly after an x flare) has shown: their energy can be so high that entire continental plates seems to become temporarely fluid and even began to drift. But: tis is the worst case m which might cocure only once in decades,. However: CMEs which are not considered NOTv as " important" by NOAA or solen, info ( as they are no expected to be capable to cause damages on satellites a.o.) might have( and do have- as my first own research on all CMEs showed) significant effects on Earth ). Therefore-( thanks to NASA and SoHO who sent me links to their elder data archives)- since July 15,. I began to examine SoHo images on a daily basis my own . These CMEs ( which due to the fact that out eye cannot distinguish smaller changes in images following each other) can only be observed when animating the LASCO images by the player provided on the SoHO data website. All these CMEs found will from now on be noticed (withrelated LASCO Images as evidence) daily in this report allthough they might not be listed by solen. info or NOAA The three day GOES hp magnetometer chart( data plot will also be added each three days now to prove and show which of these CMEs had any impacts on the geomagnetical field and/ or is related to any natural anormalities.. I apologize if these charts change from time to time due to the requirements of this project and my own process of learning and understanding. . The first ones in 2010 might have appeared a little bit chaotic From August on however I hope to be able to present this chart below in a more or less comprehensible form with an easy understandable content Thanks!alien-homepage.de not to confuse my visitors too much, you find only the last 3-5 days displayed on the page itself ! reports of previous days of this current month you find in the register card just below ( click on "archived reports" below to open and close register card. All previous months reports for 2011 you find in: archives 2011
	Did you have any strange experience possible related to a CME impact, you want to share with others? an Earthquake or volcano eruption, extreme weathers like intensive thunderstorms . Or was there something strange- any technical failure on your flight, holiday place or at home? Maybe any larger electrical outage in your town, on the metro or on a train or a transformer fire. Or just repeated radio blackouts on your TV or handy? If so please feel free to leave a comment on my Google blog! I am wondering: 9000 people already visited my blog but just one ore two ever left a comment there. All you need is a Google acount free of any charge that gives you also a central access to many social features, from youtube to Google Earth or you can create an own blog site and even earn some money with!Google is not the kind of spying organisation collecting adresses or creating any trouble with!. : okay? so just click on the button left or here to get to my blog about sun activities thanks!
ABOUT THIS PROJECT: Sun Spots , prominences , flares a.s.o. - dependent on their intensity- oftenly trigger so called CMEs ( Coronal mass ejections) These CMEs are accelerated enough to escape the Sun`s strong gravity and travel then as Sun winds through space. Some of these CMEs - referred as " Earthh directed "CMEs" make their way to Earth, triggering an entiere agenda of effects by and after their impact . The intention of this project is not to be an astrophysical research project as such.. For years I observed global Earthquake activities. Seismic activities - at least measured Earthquakes occure in a kind of irregular waveform during the timeline. This means Their total activity energy more slowly decreases over different long time periodes and then raises again to maximum values , The fact that there seems to be a certain amount of " total " energy" available in the Earts interior to trigger those Earthquakes and volcano eruptions , the number of extreme Earthquakes as those which happened just during the last 10 years also have prooved that many imaginations sustained by geology due to elder imaginations, fransfered generations ago, must be revised. In other words: The earth cannot be the only producer of these energies necessary to trigger at all 3 huge quakes with magnitudes above 9.0 , as recorded since 2001 and most likley it never did. IT is/ was the sun, resp the SUN wind , that tranfers these energies into the Earth. For a while I have researched planetary constellations those could as I imagined by their gravity contribute something to these earthquakes. but some years statistics have shown: their is no real constant coincidence to the wave form in which earthquakes and volcanisms occures/appears . The real break through came in 2010 when I became aware of the solar projects by ESA and NASA. First statistic comparations I started in May 2010 , soon showed there is a clear coincidence betweeen the sun activity as such ( sun spots background flux or solar flux) and the larger seismic activities on Earth. First time, both curves covered each other more or less perfectly .Also the irregularities found in the seismic activities were identical with the irregularities in which the sun activity generally fluctuates. Further evaluations in 2011 showed- simply explained as it generally is- that there is a direct relation between th so called "sun wind" and these seismic events. In Other words. The Sun wind delievers that energy that creates most of seismic activities on Earth!! There is a constant average of sun wind flowing from the Sun towards the earth. Sun spots create flares and can trigger CMEs . Both events ( beside them also some effects by Coronal Holes) result from an unknown mechanism inside the sun but at oleast Earth directed CMEs raise the intensity of solar winds and create the fluctuations observed. I would like to say, that not only the extreme events but even the low level fluctuations in the seismic activities on Earth go synchronously ( with some days delay caused by the speed of solar winds) with similar eruptions, resp activity fluctuations on the Sun . But I have not made an general eveluation of that that I could present evidence right now. What I am doing is to research first the larger events. A CME however is a large eruption of sun mass, accelerated so much that it can escape the Sun`s immense gravity, which alone contracts it like a spring, This energy as well as the immense heat turning atomes into a soup of electrons protons and neutrons is effective in any CME escaping from the sun into space and creates a mediu that can have the equivalent of one nuclear bomb up to thousands of . In the Earth interior however it sums up with the usual sun wind but creates the energy necessary for the strong Earthquakes we had in Sumatra 2004, in Chile 2008 or in Japan, March of this year and eslewhere No doubt: CMEs can transfer energies into the Earth, enough to move entire continental plates. ( remark, the mechanism how CMEs heat up the Earth is well documented and described by the Max Planck University for Solar Physics in Munich (pdf/ German) So after this explanations I hopw it is understood that the intention of this project is to research those effects. The observation of the Sus activity brings in people`s minds that our central star, that makes our lives possible has also the capability to destroy it. All kown about what is going on on the Sun during that 11 year solar cycle, depends first on ever more complex and sensible techniques, while it became also clear that these techniques exposed especially to those phenomenons are also vulnerable to natural- here: rather " cosmical" influences, those are greater than menkind can create. As scientist believe, the relative extreme Sun activity during the maxima of the so called " 11 years solar cycle" ( of course- there are also several other "Solar cycle"known yet ) could create of the most serious threats to Earth, more even to our technical world . For the current sun maximum expected in March 2013 the NASA/ ESA expected ( out of any reason?) an extraordinary extreme sun activity and has founded to research that, an own program to observe the Sun`s activity on a regular base this time. A part of it is administered by NOAA and called " Space Weather prediction" . This is done with a number of ( currently around 5) orbital stationary space Satellites and a network of go eostationary ( GOES) satellites and also ground observatories. On of their special tasks is, to get aware early enough on those " halo"- Earth directed CME to react early enough- such as switching off vulnerable devices . The NOAAspace weather prediction is especially designed to issue comprehensive warnings on CME and other sun features those( depending on their strength) pose a severe thread to navigation and communication satellites. You find a large collections of these Space observatories, scientific working institutions, and their associated networks on my page " solar control" with some - hopefully useful descriptions links and explanations also to all items used in usual solar terrestrial rpeorts . Despite of all these phantastic most update techniques used with SDO and other spacecrafts, the tracking of an CME is still not an easy thing ( one problem occuring ever again is the steady changing "Sun wind speed" and other unpredictable space conditions) and has to be done by human beings by Scientists and others, Also a software recently introduced on the NOAA website, obiously cannot really do it. The first feature experiment however failed and the predicted Impact time of an CME on JUne 07- 2011 turned out to by false. Earth directed - so called " Holo" CMEs are ejected while an active region on the Sun surface is in an Earth facing position. CME, resp Sun wind matter is no light but hot solid but subatomar matter in a so called "Plasma state"and has therefore a varying speed (initial acceleration ). Depending on that particular initial acceleration ( by the intensity of sun spot quality and the flares they produce in active regions) impact on the Earth appr. 2 - 5 days later . WHAT DOES THIS REPORT? This project does NOT research orbital "space weather" condition in satellite environments (for that, visit the website of NOAA) , but researches ( possibly as the only current "open net source"?) as part of my "cosmogenic Weather forecast" begun in 1999 (I provide here since 2004) statistical coincidences between these Sun features and related extraordinary Earthquakes and meanwhile also other climatical effects on Earth. Note: due to my free time it will not be possible to cover all these severe weather events. But in such a open source project interested people are invited to join in.The related experimental "Earthquake forecasts" uses these and other ( such as geological data ) evaluation data and makes predictions based on Eartz directed CME s observed ( by the NASA/ ESA space satellites) on the Sun and arrival data especially those measured by megnetometers measuring the Earth`s megnatic field. notes: >The terms of my personal copyright you find here: copyright at alien-homepage.de > The appearance and content of my graphs on this pages might change due to requirements of the project itself or for better web presentation
latest news/ informations on this project: Some remarks on NOAA space weather prediction and related issues: 5 special geosynchronous Solar observatory spacecrafts observe the Sun. Several more satellites measure all kind of values , how solar activities affect the Earth. Several " Space weather reports" are in place now. Here some general but important issues and problems still not solved . HOW FAR IS SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION REALYY? 1.Operators have TO JUDGE with their Eyes and experience data and images by SohO or Stereo images. WHETHER, HOW FAR and WHEN any CME impacts on Earth, There isyet alöso no instrument in place which can measure especially the strength of a CME that with the necessary reliability. All these t parameters would be essiential to work out a highly reliable Space weather forecast, without the risk of fail warnings, may this be for airoplanes nuclear power stations or wahtever. 2 there is no way to measure the strength of any CME or of that part which will arrive on Eare strength of a CME 2. this also only can be JUDGED- as we say: "pi times thumb"- E Here an example what such a weather prediction will make: Anyone thought about highest ALERT" after reading that a " fast fully halo CME was observed associated with a X 6.9 flare !!) in August 2011 on rpeorts by NOAA NASA and other institutes. As it turned out later ( and was announced by NASA two weeks later) the Earth directed CME created by this X flare ( 100 times stronger than usual C flares) was not even "measurable"! If there would not be anyone at NASA or SoHO who can judge with that " pi times thumb method" what this CME actually can do you, wehen it will arrive and how string it is, there would have 80 % false alarms. Soon, noone would react anymore on those warnings: planes would neither make an emergency landing . Would Operators and shareholders of Nuclear Power Station shut down thier plants , due to the high probability that CME cause high overvoltage currents on overland power grids those can destroy all pumps and electrical devices and instruments in an NPS , as it was the case in Forsmark sweden 2006 and very likely also in Fukushima March this year? To what situation a CME impact not recognized as dangerous would lead, in fact leads , showed the "almost meltdown" that occured in Forsmark 2006 and the second real meltdown in nuclear history in Fukushima 2011)Mission impossible! While any unreliable warnings would be ignored ( on day shutdown of an NPS costs the electricity companies also Millions of dollars which they then would like to charge from those who issued the overestimated alert) , the next CME can be so strong that destroys all or will cause a huge catastrophy ( compare.: Japan- NOAA has issued prior to March 11 2011 ( "311") prior to the arrival of two strong CMEs a "G1 alert" , which was too low for an shutdown of Japans nuclear power stations . These were "shutdown" then by the Tsunami instead. 3. NONE of these instruments and machines- and as it turned out also no software or human operator can.predict the real ARRIVAL TIME of a CME ON Earth! In all previous predictions- , NOAA went up to 90 % wrong Why?: The Sun is 150 mio. km away and SoHO orbits in 1.2 Mio km distance. The speed of an CME is determined by the Sun creating the steady changing solar wind speed (SWS) . If you measure close to the Earth 400 km/s the SWS speed close to the Sun might have changed to 700 km/s during a CME ejection .Any satellite close enough to the sun would just burn or even melt - at least be destroyed by the heat or would we unable to transsmit data beacause of disturbances created by Sun radiation. The Satellites in space however only can bring these necessary updates to us with a delay of appr. 2 days later. This is why the arrival of a CME cannot be exactly predicted .If it has arrive the strength can be s esti9mated by Geomagnetic magnetometers such as the one one GOES. AFter measured by GOES, any CME will impact on Earth just minutes later. To late to issue necessary warnings. SDO or STEREO for example makes it possible to recognize whether a flare or CME goes off on the front side of the sun or on its back. The instruments also might be perfect for astrophysical studies . But at all his huge solar project has nor brought this improvement yet what would be essential for for better at least reliable CME forecast. Nothing else is supposed to be, what NOAA calls " space weather prediction. Thanks! alien-homepage.de

related images and videos click on the images to enlarge them!	under construction- last updated: July- 25- 2011

SUN SPOTS	SUN SPOT NUMBER << image current Sun Spots on the visible Sun disc - photographed with the AIA ( Atmosphere imaging assembly) instrument on Board of the SDO (solar dynamics observatory) spacecraft explanations will follow later!

SDO (AIA)
	SOLAR FLUX << latest view on the surface of the Sun with SDO AIA imager. time delay: appr 45 minutes ( guiven by the speed of light) report will follow later!
SDO- Real Time
	PLANETARY "A" INDEX solen.info: Jan Alvestad is the producer of a daily solar terrestrical activity report ( see activity chart left), combining all available activity data in one unique and well illustrated report. Solen,.info has also alarge archive dating back to 2003
SoHO - Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/ LASCO 2:	SoHO - Solar and Heliospheric Observatory- the most perfect solar observer ever! The SoHO/ ESA institute was so friendly to submit me a link to their database, dating back to the beginnings of solar satellite research in the 70th/ 20th century. Their search machines works quite perfectly and allows to review all images made by the two cameras on board of the SoHO spacecraft, since it began operating in 1996. The first- called LASCO 2 (Large Angle and Spectrometric COronagraph)makes (in intervals of 6 resp 12 minutes) images with an higher zoom in the infrared sepctrum. The second-the LASCO 3 imager makes images from a wider perspective in the blue lights spectrum with a lot of stars visible around the Sun, whre recently several small comet could be observed impacting on the Sun. The live images of the Sun made by LACO are quite popular in the Internet community. ( see the LASCO 3 image in the field above which is a real view on the Sun , The data form SoHO reach the Earth with the normal delay of about 3 Minutes as determined by the speed of light and the 1.2 km distance where SoHO orbits synchronously with the Earth around the Sun. LASCO images As the two LASCO imager have a plate in the middle of their objectives which constantly must cover the visible sun dis to make events visible those occure in the Suns Corona Helisphere, SoHO cannot observe events on the Sun surface itself- but covering the sun itself an thus filtering ouit its intensive light, The two LASCO imager on Board of SoHO can excellentlyx make all thes potential dangerous CMES visible, those regularly occure on the Sun. Once been lounched as an experimental satellite, SoHO with LASCO became meanwhile the only but also most important tool for 100% reliable prediction whether such an CME is heading towards Earth and whether it will impact totally ( Earth directed or holo CME) or partially strive the Earth ( partial CME). The visible CME could ("fog") would in these cases pass over the SoHo spacecraft ( being on an stable synchronous orbit exactly between Earth and Sun) and create significant appearances on the LASCO imaginery. This now enables me to review all images made by LASCO 2 and 3 on a daily base to check out recent flares and CMEs. those were regarded as " not important" ( reasons: read in next chapter) and therfeore are not listed by the NOAA space weather center. From today, July-25 on, you will therefore find one image daily on my activity chart made by LASCO , preferently those showing the highest activity during that day or significant changes in visible activities , such as flares or CMEs.

LASCO Real Time Image

SPACE WEATHER> link to website of the NOAA space weather prediction center	SPACE WEATHER> All the international institutes involved in that solar activity obscervation program work mainly on a so called space weather report and space weather prediction, which is issued by the NOAA , base on data of 7 special solar satellite observatories ( find out all about on my page SOLAR CONTROL CENTER) Space weather means nothing else than the conditions created/ given by the sun wind and other solar parameters in the Earth near orbit and geomagnetic field. As everyone knows, satellites play an important an essential part in our daily lives and in public affairs today. GPS has replaced compass based navigation systems in civil and military navigation of airplanes ships and unmofrtunately also drones or cruise missiles. But also your GPS system in your cars. Television programs and more and more also internet data and telephone calls can transmitted easily and in best quality known by satellites into every corner of this world without any terrestistical network or wire necessary , may this be any place on the North pole or or any place on the equator. Last not least also more then 10 GOES/ POES weather satellites orbit around the Earth , producing satellite images for weather reports volcano observations and many other useful purposes.
SUN WIND (by:SoHO)	SUN WIND Sun winds especially when caused by EARTH DIRECTED CMEs (those not only occure during the solar cycle maximum as now when just their frequence is higher) can pose a big danger to these satellites where they can cause irreversible damages and easier if these are operational and online. . An extreme CME after a X flare event could even create a socalled EMP- an ElectroMagnetic Pulse which theoretically could destroy all electronic devices including their data even on Earth within m1 opr two seconds. This "worst case scenario" caused bya extreme CME as after an x flare is possible but due to laws of solar physics and orbital conditions rather unlikely but however occure within larger periods of time. To cause any significant damages such a CME must at be Earth directed or at least strive the Earth partially. But larger CMES which are thrown out from the Sun surface in other directions can have effects on Earth if so called " Coronal holes (CH) are in Earth facing position.

ACE REAL TIME SOLAR WIND
CORONAL HOLES >	CORONAL HOLES > Coronal Holes are a newly discovered physical phenomenons related to the processes in the Sun. Idont know how far this phenomenon is really explored jet. These darker areas on the sun disc can sometimes cover a quarter of the visible sun disc, on which they can be observed with certain filters. They most likely form temporarely out of formerly active regions until they seem again to dissapear after a while . Most interestingly, these coronal holes usually create a kind of jet stream , inside those which the Sun wind particles are accelerated to a speed up to1000 km/ s - a triple of its regular speed .When such a Coronal holes becomes RECURRENT and starts to decay again, most likely higher steps in Core fusion set in and create a strong magnetic field against again which slow down the sun wind speed below its average, resp can create jet streams with low Sun wind speed . In general: as higher the Sun wind speed is, as lower is its density. What difference that makes in terms of its effects on Earth, is currentky under investigation. (own theory) Coronal holes are possibly remainants of temporary or permanent spotted regions on the Sun, those had produced flares and prominences by accelerated form of core fusion, when frist hydrogen is fusioned to heilum When exhausted, they become seemingly inactive , but rather just start up the next step with an fusion of Helium into Lithium or whatever. By continous fusion they become heavier elements until this matter is pulled back into the Suns interior.

GOES- Real time x-ray imager
SPACE WEATHER (PREDICTION)	SPACE WEATHER (PREDICTION) However- If such a CME solar storm would approach the Satellites in space the first early wearning system is necessary . This warning system is on bard of the SDO ( SolarDynamicsObservatory) a space craft which measures the " x ray" flux _ speak the typical light spectrum especially emmited from those active regions during flare or CME. While a CME and Sun wind consists out of matter that needs despite is supersonic speed at least two days to arrive on Earth, the x-rays produced by a flare just like any light wave travels with the speed of light and needs therefor just appr 45 Minutes for the 150 Mio. km distance from the Sun to the Earth . The values measured and transmitted from this certain bend with of "solar flux" allow such an early prediction. In case that any dangerous CME would hit a satellite , as usual procedure all instruments on board will be switched out to prevent an EMP shock. This is the mein issue of the NOAA space weather and space center and space weather prediction.

NOAA Satellite Environment
EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION	SUN ACTIVITY AND EARTH WEATHER PREDICTION corrected until here...Very early insiders with access to the data transmitted by 6 Satellites in place which only observe the Sun around the clock - first of all the staff at the NASA and ESA offices also realized, that those CMEs do NOT only have effects on their satellites, but more even when they impact on Earth: Like recent images made by SDO spacecraft show, Sun wind while travelling through space looks principally just like a cloud of fog. Neverthelsse it does not consist out of water but out of plasma matter - a soup of sabatomic matter particles - Protons Electrons and Proton(Neutron pairs., which was- before it erupted from the Sun, compressed under its immense gravity and heated up to Millions of degress. When it escapes form the Sun`s surface it on the one side expands like a feather released from its gravity pressure ( causing the certain specific acceleration of the Sun wind due to the initial energy of the flare or other activity causing ths sunwind ). ON the other side, space is almost a vaccuum where such a plasma mattercloud traveling though space does lose almost nothing of its energy ( heat and subatomic movement) until it arrives on Earth , where it comes in friction first with the atmosphere and finally with the ground or water depending where its main mass impacts on ground. First the normal Sun wind or CME sun storm however hits the outer layers of the geomagnetical field, which fortunately accumulates resp distributes- due to its own density increasing close to the Earth- much of its energy equally all over the planet and lowers so the effects . But the largest part of its mass wioll impact on ground where it can make all the effects as described in the text boxes above. Durin g ths happens the sun wind or CME balances or accumulates it energtic level with the energetic level of the Earth whereby it realasies the most of its energy- at all amounts awe cannot anyway compare with any experience we make in daily life or are capable to produce by technical processes. Just logically the total impact on Earth is also not comparably to wehat such a tiny piece of metal satellite may receive from such a CME. Despite heir instruments are quite senstive they always will just get a glimpse of thr dose which arrives in Earth. Experience have even shown the strengrth of a CME which already would cause significant effects on Earth kike higher rates oand strengths of earthquakes may not harm a satellite at all, whereas a dosis which damages a satellite could already have disastrous effects on Earth. Therefor THe NASA( NOAA sopace weather oprediction more and more also inlcudes forecast for electric overland power grids and iother technical installations . However- NOAA e weill regard "not Earth directed" CMEs which are effective on Earth but not their satellites as " not of interests " and issue no report. Normally those minor or nor Eartzn directed CMEs and flares would also not produce much damage by earthquake volcanism or wind or thunderstorms . But as recent evaluation shows doe by increasing the density and dynamic pressure of the Sun winds. Same as c"oronal holes are able to do just out of a contrary physical process. What I research in the project ( and what noone else does in an open source manner as far as I know) are rather natural effects those can be extremely disastrous as my two years eveluation doubtlessly have proved and shown.( see page 3: special reports and essays) >> find all explanations , all about the Sun satellite observatories involved with all links the related websites of NASA, ESA etc.. on my recently created page (click on>) " SOLAR CONTROL CENTER)

GOES...Magnetometer

EARTHQUAKE DATA >	NEIC/ USGS: (National Earthquake Information Center / United States Geological Survey -USA)
internal Earthquake statistic charts	EMSC (European and Mediterranean Seimis Center)


about the multiple possible especially Earth directed CMEs can have on Earth:

own video channel:	-LARGE AND HIGH MAGNITUDE EARTH-/ SEAQUAKES AND VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS-
	example ( watch video left) The 9.0 Earthquake OFFSHORE HONSHU/ JAPAN OCCURED AFTER TWO MAJOR CME PARTICLE WINDS HAD STRUCKED THE EARTH ON MARCH 09 1nd 10. On MARCH 09- 2011 3 major Eartquakes above 6.0 occured on one single day ( what is rather seldom ) on 20 Of March almost 30 EQ above M 6.0 followed. Something I never have observed yet since I make the Earthquake statistics ( 2004) Maximum jet was: 3 Eartquakes above 6.0 on one day. The super quake also occured after a 3 weeks lasting record height of sun activity ,with a double of the maximum of the entire year before.
	WEATHER EFFECTS: THUNDERSTORMS LIGHTENINGS, TORNADOS -RAINFLOODS- HEATWAVES- DRY PERIODS
	As you know, I am producing annually an entire weather forcast for the entire year ( based on the true ( means: NOT the socalled "astrological") planetary constellations, which as I and many of my users prooved and confirmed is (whatever anyone may believe when first hearing about the method) - out of my own experience- perharps the most reliable weather forecast method that exists. It is identical with the astronomical methods, how special educated persons of the ancient Indian cultures in Mesoamerica ( known as " MAYA") but also in ancient Epytian predicted the Weather for years and even decades in advance. click here fo the related page content on my website) So far as I could prove in the_-at the time when I establish this report- 1 and half year constant work on this solar project , the Sun activity in generall DOES NOR influence the weather situation in general - in terms whether they will be rainy or hot and dry weather for just one day day or any longer period: What the fluctuations in the Sun activity and its parameters especially during the maximum of the so called " 11 years solar cycle really do is: THEY ENHANCE, or lets say AMPLIFY that special weather. INCREASE OF AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DURING HIGH SUN ACTIVITY PERIODS: (predictable by sun spot number resp. solar flux) A large Sun spot number ( what automatically leads to higher active reagions on the Sun and a higher solar Fux- speak stronger sunshine ) can raise temperatures above the avarage values over that period when these regions are active ending witzh their decay- along with high energy dischargesn form the Sun surface in form of flares priminences those increase the sun wind and lead to sponaneous CMEs ( coronal mass ejections) COOLING EFFECTS CAUSED BY CORONAL HOLES Coronal holes- so far as nunderstood obviously regions with a formerly high sun spot density and flare activity those create an colder regions wehen they are in some sense. exhaused. Those regions can be large areas covering up to a quarter of the Sun`s visible disc. So far as data comparation shown until now, these coronal holes - EARTH FACING- can create het streams with high accelerated sun winds , but usually seem to go along effect with a siginificant drop of the global average temperatures. Uuclear is still, when these effects set in after such a coronal holes came into an Earth facing position ( by the Sun`s own spin arpund a rotation axis). Differently to effects caused by the Sun wind ( that needs appr 2 days to reach the Earth) the effects of these denser areas with higher gravity seem to set in immidiately with no siginificant time delay
	-RELEASES/ EMISSIONS OF LARGE AMOUNTS OF METHANHYDRATES FROM OCEAN-FLOORS AND SUBCONTINENTAL SHELVES
	<watch my video (part 4 of 4) with live feeds made by romote operated vehicles , during the BP operations in the Guld of mMexico during July and October 2010 < click here for: part 1....part 2...part 3
	-ELECTRONICAL HAZARDS TO ELECTRONICAL DEVICES--RADIO BLACKOUTS-
	<< for that: watch my video Meltdown at Fukushima (part 2 of 2) Radiocalypse... ( click here to watch part 1 of 2) click here read about effects such as howb CMEs can charge power grids on the NASA website THE LARGE NETWORKS OF ELECTRICAL GRIDS STRETCHING MEANWHILE OUT OVER ENTIRE CONTINENTS AS I ASSUME, MIGHT WORK AS A LARGE ANTENNA ON WHICH IMPACTING SUN WIND MOST LIKELY EFFECT SIMILAR TO A LIGHTENING OVERVOLTAGE ,. MORE EVEN THEY MIGHT CAUSE SO CALLED " TWO LINE CIRCUIT SHORTCUTS" WITH A SUBSEQUENT OVERVOLTAGE IN THESE POWER GRIDS THIS CAUSES NOT ONLY OUTAGES IN THE POWER SUPPLY ITSELF; BUT MORE ALSO DESTRUCTIONS ON ELECRICAL DEVICES ( VERY OFTEN AS OVERHEATING SPOOLS, THOSE EITHER BURN THROUGH OR EVEN START TO BURN) , ESPECIALLY AS IT SEEMS ON SO CALLED TRANSFORMATOR STATIONS THE REACTOR INCIDENT IN FORSMARK JULI 2006 ( ALMOST MELTDOWN) WAS CAUSED BY AN OVERVOLTAGE FROM AN YET UKNOWN SOURCE. THERE WAS NO THUNDERSTORMN ON THAT HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR. SWEDEN LIES IN THE NORTH, WHERE THOSE OUTAGES BY CME PREFERENTLY OCCURE ( COMPARE: POWER OUTAGE- CANADA LATE 80th)

note: with elder machines the page will need some time to load!		last update: MAY 19- 2012- 08:00 UTC copyright: reserved
bg. image: Nick Russill from Cardiff, UK (Northern Lights, Greenland) [CC-BY-2.0 / Wikimedia Commons	open source earthquake forecast project- Start- page -daily updated project- since May 2010-.created and provided by: alien-homepage.de

11 YEAR SUN SPOT CYCLE- MAXIMUM ACTIVITY IN 2012/ 13
	SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG
SOLAR TERRESTRIAL RELATIONS OBSERVATORY/ NASA STEREO BEACON >

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BRIEF INFO:

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

(previous day)

SOLAR PARAMETERS

362-479

C

08

B 4.5

M

18 MAY- 2012

70- 115 nT

X

M 5.5- 7.0

18 MAY- 2012

M 5.5- 7.0

19 MAY- 2012

M 5.5- > 7.5

click on the following tabs to open and close collapsible panels with s and contents:

NOTICES >

click here on on the panel above for the archived reports of January 2012, already erased from here

visit my page " SUN CONTROL CENTER" with further links, informations and glossaries about hardware and solar terms as used in this report! >

SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG/ ARCHIVES:

NEWS CHANNELS:

( collecting of recommendable international news channels is still ongoing...)

AUSTRALIA, INDONESIA, PHILIPPINES

AFRICA

ASIA

AMERICA

EUROPE:

BY COUNTRIES:

EUROPE:

AUSTRALIA REGION:

NORTHERN AMERICA

CENTRAL AMERICA>

SOUTHERN AMERICA>

PACIFIC

bigislandvideonews (Hawaii)

AFRICA

> ARABIA

ASIA

chinadaily.com.cn/ (China)

ALL REGIONS>

research and documentary of Solar activities ( CME= Coronal Mass Ejections) and related terrestrial effects such as :

LATEST SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL ALERTS:

CME ERUPTIONS (SUN)

A stronger- probably fully HALO CME was observed during a LDE filament eruption and associated prominences in the regions of AR 11476 and 11480 on May 11 at 23: 54. This CME is likely to arrive on May 13- 14 and might be geoeffective ( SEE FORECAST BELOW)

CME ARRIVALS (EARTH(

MAY- 09- 12: SOME MINOR CME PORTIONS FROM ACTIVITIES IN AR 11476 ARRIVED ON MAY- 12

REMARKS:

IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS>

as described below

EARTHQUAKES >

most probable LOCATIONS >

April- 18: Today I have adjusted the colors to the new background . I hope it makes the impressions more "quiet"

click here to find previous reports of MAY 2012 >

MAY 2012

*

please note: 1.: always calculate with an error of at least one day in the Earthquake prediction.

2. Updates will be made during multiple CME events with/ due to LATENCY effects. Otherwise, Earthquake forecasts once made will NOT BE CORRECTED AFTERWARDS.

2012

MONTH:

MAY

DAY:

19

- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS:

EARTHQUAKES:

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

EARTHQUAKES TODAY

NAME of REGION

LOCATION (long/lat)

DATE AND UTC- TIME

MAGNITUDE

DEPTH

CATHEGORY

MAP

GOOGLE EARTH: