According to NASA, this 24th. 11 year sun spot cycle has probably a " twin peak"- the second in 2015. This project therefore will be prolongued.
THE 11 YEAR SUN SPOT CYCLE-
LAST MAXIMUM ACTIVITY IN: 2012/ 13 NEXT: APPR. in 2024
SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG
- activities and major events-
note: as the solar sun spot activity is decreasing now, major events are expected to get less at least in next years. (next cycle minimum expected in 2019)
.Therefor, this project is also limited now to basic updates. In July 2014 I decided to update this page only after significant event and changes and to turn this page into an monthly page that will cover significant events and can be archived then in that form.
ESSENTIAL SOURCES ON SOLAR ACTIVITIES; Satellite Real Time images and data plots, weblinks etc....click here to expand and close the collapsible panel to read all..
SECTION: LATEST INFORMATION ON SOLAR ACTIVITIES
EVENT RELATED INTERPLANETARY & GEOMAGNETIC DATA PLOTS IMAGES OR VIDEO SOURCES:
(1) SOLAR REAL TIME / CURRENT SATELLITE DATA AND EVENTS
REAL TIME images links for current views on the sun surface- click to enlarge
HOW SOLAR ACTIVITY REPORTS ARE COMMONLY MADE:
SOLAR (NEAR) REAL TIME images as provided by satellites such as SDO, STEREO and SoHO are the first main source on Solar activity data: Various telescopes imaging different levels of frequencies can make sun spots, active regions visoiblöe as well as coronal holes and solar eruptions: solar prominences, flares and associated CMEs ( one exception are proton emissions those remain invisible on any usal imagery. Protons emissions and storms can be measured withe certain instruments instead ( GOES)
Second step is the interplanetary space and solar magnetic field . The Advanced Composition Explorer ( ACE) is "situated" on an geosynchronous orbit outside the geomagnetic field . This satellite has only measurement instruments onboard those deliver various data about the composition of the solar wind. Solar winds blow and circulate regularly through the interplanatary space . Coronal mass ejections and other extraordinary solar events eruptions throw large amounts of solar matter into the interplanetary space . ACE can deliver first data , how strong a possibly earth directed CME might be 1 - 2 days before those CMEs impact and answer the first primary question associated to any CME: Has the main CMEa positive or negative "POLARITY "-( =AN ESPECIAL - PROTON or ELECTRON charge)? means: is the incoming CME NEUTRAL, has it higher accelerated PROTONs or ELECTRONS. THis first question (which one of the two antagonists- the proton or electrons arrives first) determines whether a CME can fully impact into the geomagnetic field or almost NOT AT ALL!
Last not least, in the third step, the GEOSTATIONARY GOES SATELLITES measure what INDEED IMPACTS INTO THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD, basic for all space weather forecasts and forceasts as this one on my page, how strong EARTH DIRECTED CMES might unfluence nature and human civilisation!
-Go to "SOLAR CONTROL CENTER to find out more about these solar observatories or click on the many links on this page to get fisst hand informations!-
SOLAR REAL TIME SAT IMAGES :
note also: SDO, SOHO C3 and STEREO (360° VIEW°) REAL TIME IMAGES ON TOP OF THAT PAGE!
the Earth`s geomagnetic field electrons might defend the Earth even against CMEs from a X 10 flare, what poses the likely only danger , is the attack "from the other side" know as "protons events"
ABOUT: SOLAR PROTON EMISSIONS (proton flares or storms etc. ) ARE RARE EVENTS . But- differently to the mostly of negative charged (electrons) CMEs , PROTON CMEs effect (finally by associated energetic events) until deep into the ground and the Earth`s interior. Proton emissions impact fully into the (negatively charged) geomagnetic field by their positive electric charge and add a positive component to it, what makes the geomag. field TEMPORARELY then also vulnerable especially for following negatively charged CMEs . The protons themselves have paradox effects: first they swallow many electrons (likely reacting with them to neutrons what causes first a "geomagnetic depression" with lower field density (lessactive, free electrons) and paradox ANTIENERGETIC effects (best describable as the "calm prior to the storm" ) .. read more in text box above
Long-range communications using high frequency (HF) radio waves (3 - 30 MHz) depend on reflection of the signals in the ionosphere. Radio waves are typically reflected near the peak of the F2 layer (~300 km altitude), but along the path to the F2 peak and back the radio wave signal suffers attenuation due to absorption by the intervening ionosphere.
Absorption is the process by which the energy of radio waves is converted into heat and electromagnetic (EM) noise through interactions between the radio wave, ionospheric electrons, and the neutral atmosphere (for a more extensive description of the absorption process see Davies, 1990). Most of the absorption occurs in the ionospheric D region (50–90 km altitude) where the product of the electron density and the electron-neutral collision frequency attains a maximum...
The precipitation of protons (as well as other ions) into the earth’s atmosphere during the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events can also create significant enhancements of ionospheric electron densities in the D region. Solar protons with energies between 1 to 200 MeV are primarily responsible for most of ionization of the D region and, consequently, for the ionospheric absorption of HF radio waves. Because of shielding of the earth by its magnetic field SEPs find easy access to the atmosphere only in high latitude regions around the earth’s geomagnetic poles. Such occurrences are therefore termed Polar Cap Absorption (PCA) events....read more...
CLICK HERE FOR INTERNATIONAL MEDIA AND NEWS SOURCES & OTHER EXTERNAL LINKS- DAILY NEWS FROM WHERE IT HAPPENS!..click here to expand and close the collapsible panel to read all..
( collecting of recommendable international news channels is still ongoing...): Note: This list is dedicated to get latest informations directly from regional news channels and sources all over the world . Alien-homepage does not take any responsibility for contents of websites posted on this list nor for their liability
20141022: as expected, AR 12192 continued its activity with an M 9 flare followed by an X 1,5 flare on 20141022. These flares were followed bvy a significant halo CME
20141020:Since more than one week, AR 12192 continues sto produce solar flare one after another and is- so also the USAF reports currently the only really active solar sun spot region. This activity in AR 12191 has intensified in the last days with 1 X 1 flare on 20141019 and already to M 5 flares today on 20141020. Solen.info remarks today, . the region is capable to produce an X 10 + flare in the coming days while it rotates more and more towards the solar meridian into an earth facing poistion!
. Most interestingly-, almost none of the recent flares has produced any CME ( coronal mass ejection)yet , what is 4me a clear sign, that the energy produced by this AR currently cannot really discharge from the sun-. There are as usually strong y ray bursts alonmg with these flares , those have even an significant impact on earth, but these electromagnetic waves are just one form of energy release but not the main one. ITs maybe best comparable with water in a pot that begins to boil: So lonmg as the pot is opened, you will see bubbles on the surface and the typical steam emission; But if you put a tap on it , you may feel increasing heat above the pot ( the result of electromagnetic waves comparable to the x rays form the Sun ) . but if the pot further is heated up , the pot might at any time explode and release the cinetic energy, which is the basic/ primary energy of all other forms of energy.
Thus.-similar to that the energy is still accumulating within the sun-( likely because of an currently high gravity within the sun.) what will most likely - lets say 100% discharge at anytime in the next days with a strong CME- but as as recent similar situations showed- rather with another and possibly VERY STRONG SEP. I am not a fear mongerer: but since the energy of several recent and elder SEPsis still latent in the Earth body and has not finally discharged, such an expectable new and major SEP can lead to apocalyptic volcanic events and to a nightmare of paradox climatic effects ( see SEP events above)
click here for previous solar events logs and reports
20141018: The active regions that appeared behind the eastern limb on October 14 is meanwhile numbered as AR 12192 and is a nested region which was already present during previous rotation periods ( see images in general solar evolution). AR 12192 was very active during the past days and is currently the only AR on the visible disc that produces significant flares. On October 14 had produced a very long duration event ( LED), that continued on lower level the days after. At time of this update, AR 12192( meanwhile- resp. on Oct 18 at 76 ° Easter position) was going to produce and M x or X flare. SDO images are not available yet but will be posted as soon as availablecurrent. Current AR 12192 proves very good that AR can appear, fade and reappear on the same location during unknown amounts of time
20141016: ( img. 5) The active region behind the Eastern limb
resumed the LDE M flare that began on October 14 (img 2) . The region is still unnumbered and has not yet rotated into view.
20141015: X ray activity was very low during the past days. A sudden major M flare occured on Oct 14 around 19 UTC in an active region which is still behind the Eastern and but will rotate into view in the next days. the exlosion was so strong, that STEREO Behind satellite (which is positioned east of the Sun obviously suffered a major damage. Currently however none of its telescopes transmits any images. STEREO Ahead is currently also out of order and transmits currently just a loop of images beteen 7 an 9 UTC on October 13 ending up with something that looks like a radiation shock.The associated CME was very strong but has no major earth directed parts.
update/ 20141009 : Solar x- ray activity / emissions dropped to another low point during the first week of October 2014. In general, two years after the cycle max., sun spot groups and single sun spots are getting smaller and flares as well are thus no more so strong. In the first week of Actover, AR 12021 was the only significant active region and produced multiple flares , those reached not more than M- level. The CMEs however were polarised either rotating or ejected mainly out of * ions or protons , those again caused a disturbance with a drop of in the integral electron activity after October 08. ( see image 3 and 4 below)
20141002: ( img 03 and 04 above ): eruptive activity is very low and increased slightly to M level on October 09 ( img 5) . Integral Electron flux is still hightened and was on Oct 08 between 100 and 1.000 pfu .
update/ 201410022: *image 5 Integral electron flux incfreased further and exceeded NOAA
treshold of 1.000 pfu o 20141021
update/ 201410020: ( image 5) as NASA D RAP images show; the x-ray emission from the intensive flare activity in solar sun spot region AR 12192 have an significant impact in the equatorial regions of the Earth
. Two large RECURERENT coronal holes cause minor geomagnetic storming ( see detailed solar activity report below)
update/ 20141009 ( img 03): Integral Electron flux is still hightened and was on Oct 08 between 100 and 1.000 pfu .
update/ 20141002: a minor flank of the M flare and CME on Oct 02 reached the earth on 20141004 but
had with some more than 120 (total) nT. just little impact
update/ 20141002: ( image 1) A major solar LDE-with an xray outburst of currently M 8 occured at time of this update: NASA D RAP shows significant atmospheric heating
20141002: Due to the solar Proton events, the integral Electrons flux is currently high and repeatedly exceeded NOAA treshold of 1.000 pfu during the past days.
BEIJING - More than 800 firefighters joined rescue operations in Jinggu county of Southwest China's Yunnan Province after the area was jolted by a 6.6-magnitude quake Tuesday night. The firemen, with 132 fire vehicles and 35 sniffer dogs, have helped relocate 450 locals to safe places, said a statement from the Ministry of Public Security's fire department on Wednesday. The team is also searching houses for survivors and helping build tents. The People's Liberation Army Armed Police also arrived soon after the quake and transferred more than 680 people to safe places. Yunnan governor Li Jiheng is currently taking command of the rescue team. He arrived at the epicenter of the 6.6-magnitude earthquake at 3:50 a.m. in Yongping Township, Jinggu county. By Wednesday morning, the quake, which struck at 9:49 p.m. Beijing Time, has left 324 people injured and forced 124,6000 people from their homes.res...read more.,..
MAJOR NATURAL AND TECHNICAL INCIDENTS
20141016: Italy: Anger grows as torrential rain brings more misery to flood soaked Italy- Nepal: trekkers and guides killed in freak avalanches
Several avalanches in central Nepal have killed at least 26 people. The confirmed dead are mainly trekkers, guides and local farmers and include eight foreigners. Rescue officials say the toll could rise because dozens more people were out of contact due to poor communication links. Unseasonal blizzards and lashing rain brought on by cyclone Hudhud triggered avalanches mainly near Annapurna, and the district of Mustang. A helicopter pilot is said to have spotted more bodies in the snow but heavy snowfalls are making it impossible to retrieve them....read more...
Heavy rains are continuing to wreak havoc across northern and central Italy causing widespread flooding and loss of life. On Wednesday in Tuscany two women died after their car was swept away when a local river broke its banks . Their deaths bring the number of victims in recent days to four. Beleaguered residents are angry: “Look at Genoa!” said one man trying to rescue belongings from his flooded home.“They’ve have floods twice in five years. For us it’s twice in two.” Many believe the flooding could be prevented.One woman blamed local and regional governments: “The state and local administrations ask money for taxes, but they don’t use it to protect us. I’m 70 years old and I’m not going to go on paying for nothing.”....read more...
A 57- year-old man has died in Italy after flash floods hit the port city of Genoa. One of the city’s biggest rivers, the Bisagno, burst its banks overnight on Thursday sending flood waters sweeping through the streets.The waters smashed shop windows, washed away cars and left some neighborhoods cut off from rescuers. There is anger among many locals that authorities failed to sound the alarm beforehand. In 2011, heavy flooding in Genoa left six people dead. One woman said: “We did not receive any alert even though it has been raining heavily for two days.” Another agreed, saying: “Nobody did anything to protect us and this is the result. I have been living here for 46 years and we’ve suffered four floodings.” One local resident demanded more help from the authorities: “Our mayor must come here with volunteers, council employees and give us some help. But concrete help, with money, not with talk.”
note: from September 2014 on, this report will contain / collect only data about hurricanes with windspeeds above 50 MPH. For latest developing tropical storms, visit wunderground., com! datasets with a green background are hurricanes those are already over!
Hurricane Gonzalo made a direct hit on the island of Bermuda near 8:30 pm EDT Friday night rated by NHC as a strong Category 2 storm with sustained 110 mph winds. Sustained winds at the Bermuda Airport peaked at 76 mph, with a gust to 96 mph, as the northern eyewall passed overhead between 8 - 9 pm ADT. After a calm lasting about an hour, when the pressure sank to 953 mb, the southern eyewall hit, with stronger winds than the northern eyewall--93 mph, gusting to 113 mph, at 11:55 pm ADT. An unofficial gust of 144 mph was recorded at Commissioners Point at an elevation of 262', a site notorious for recording strong winds due to local terrain effects.
Gonzalo's damage not as heavy as Fabian's of 2003 Thankfully, no one was killed on Bermuda from Gonzalo. Damage on the island was considerable, though appears to be much lower than that wrought by Category 3 Hurricane Fabian of 2003, the only hurricane to get its name retired exclusively because of its impact on the island of Bermuda. Fabian did $300 million in damage, making it the most expensive hurricane ever to hit the island. Fabian's storm surge destroyed the causeway connecting the airport to the rest of the island, and this causeway withstood Gonzalo's impact--though divers are scheduled to inspect its footings Saturday afternoon before reopening will occur. Damage at the airport was mostly minor (roof damage and minor flooding), and all the navigational infrastructure seems intact.
Hurricane Ana bringing heavy rains to Hawaii Hurricane Ana took advantage of light wind shear and warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) warm of 27.4°C (81°F) to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds as of 5 am EDT on Saturday, but is not a threat to make a direct hit on any of the Hawaiian Islands. Satellite loops on Saturday morning showed that Ana had its most impressive appearance yet, with a large area of heavy thunderstorms, plenty of low level spiral bands, and solid upper-level outflow to the north and east. Heavy rains causing flash floods and mudslides are a major concerni...read more...
Tropical Storm Trudy hits Mexico In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Trudy formed Friday night and was making landfall on the Pacific coast of Mexico about 75 miles east-southeast of Acapulco on Saturday morning with sustained winds of 60 mph. Acapulco radar is showing very heavy rains affecting the coast, and Trudy has the potential to dump rains of 6 - 12 inches during the next few days in the states of Guerrero and Oaxaca in southern Mexico.
A Hurricane Watch is up for Bermuda as Powerful Category 4 Hurricane Gonzalo aims its 130 mph winds towards the island. Gonzalo is the Atlantic's first Category 4 hurricane since October 2, 2011, when Hurricane Ophelia reached 140 mph winds. Gonzalo walloped the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands on Monday into Tuesday morning while rapidly intensifying from a tropical storm to a strong Category 1 hurricane. One person was killed on St. Maarten, and two others were missing--one in St. Martin and one in St. Barths, according to The Daily Herald. Twelve people were injured in Antigua.
Forecast for Gonzalo Data from an Air Force hurricane hunter mission and satellite loops on Wednesday morning showed that Gonzalo had a tiny 6-mile diameter inner eye, with a concentric 28-mile diameter outer eyewall forming. The inner eyewall will likely collapse by Wednesday evening and the outer eyewall will take over as the main eyewall in an eyewall replacement cycle. This process should halt intensification, and possibly reduce Gonzalo to Category 3 status by Wednesday evening. But with wind shear a light 5 - 10 knots and warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) near 29°C (84°F), Gonzalo should be able to stay a major hurricane into Thursday. If Gonzalo is able to complete its eyewall replacement cycle quickly, the hurricane could re-intensify some and be a Category 4 storm into Friday morning. It is more likely, though that Gonzalo reached its peak lifetime intensity at 11 am EDT Wednesday, as the official NHC forecast indicates
LATEST MAJOR VOLCANO ACTIVITIES - including official reports (global volcanism program/ Smithsonian/ USGS)
20141012: Sinabung volcano (Sumatra, Indonesia) activity update: frequent pyroclastic flows up to 4.5 km long
Activity has picked up considerably at the volcano during the past days. Several pyroclastic flows (dangerous hot avalanches of fragmented lava and hot gasses) traveled down the SE (and some on the NE) flanks of the volcano, threatening again the closest inhabited areas to the S of Sinabung. The flows originated by collapses on the viscous growing lava lobe on the steep southeastern flank of the volcano and traveled distances of 3-4.5 km. Some still inhabited villages on the southern feet of the volcano are now at elevated risk. Ash fall has occurred in more than 12 km distances as a result of the so-called co-ignimbrite ash plumes (rising ash from the avalanches) that rose to several km height. Some ash plumes reached Medan airport where several flights have been cancelled.
A viscous lava flow started to descend from the summit crater of the volcano on the southeast slope. On Sunday, it was approx. 350 m long and advancing slowly, with incandescence visible at night. According to an interview with Philvolcs scientists, the present situation is similar to the days before a large explosion occurred in 1986. The currently slow extrusion could be the foreplay of a potentially dangerous and large explosive eruption. This scenario could occur if the lava flow is caused by new, gas-rich magma, which is now rising and currently pushing out an overlying column of older, degassed and viscous lava above it in the conduit. According to press articles, more than 12,000 people have been evacuated from areas close to the volcano and a 6 km exclusion zone is in place. Other hazards include landslides and pyroclastic flows if parts of the lava flow collapse.
51 confirmed dead in Mt. Ontake's eruption Japan Oct. 4, 2014 - Updated 14:58 UTC+2 Japanese authorities have confirmed the deaths of 4 more people in connection with the eruption of Mount Ontake last week. This brings to 51 the number of people confirmed to have died. On Saturday, about 1,000 Ground Self-Defense Force personnel, police officers and fire fighters searched for those still missing. They found 4 people near and around the summit. All of them were later confirmed dead. The search operation on Sunday may be canceled as weather officials are predicting rain in the morning and a typhoon is forecast to approach on Monday.
Over 30 people are feared dead near the erupting Ontake volcano in central Japan, police reported. The volcano started erupting on Saturday, sending ash clouds down the mountain’s slope for more than 3 kilometers. Volcano erupts in central Japan, dozens injured (VIDEO, PHOTOS) The people were found by police officers in a state of "cardiopulmonary arrest” near the top of the volcano, NHK national news reported. “We have confirmed that more than 30 individuals in cardiac arrest have been found near the summit,” a spokesman for Nagano prefecture police told AFP. Hundreds of people, including children, were left stranded near the top of the volcano, police told NHK. Most of them made their way down Saturday evening.---read more...
yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values
*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report
3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT:
LATEST RELATED CME(SEP IMPACT
01- 04/ 14
Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.
Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./
Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME. Colors from orange to light red mark GRADUAL IMPACTS OF MULTIPLE CMEs CLUSTERS.
HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST>
INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions!
STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS
The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER a LATENCY period due to CME IMPACT on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES within the RED until the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Read "latency remarks"
REGION "E" (1)
REGION "E" (2)
REGIONS COVERED BY LATEST CME IMPACT>
EASTERN EURASIA-- INDONESIA-WESTERN PACIFIC PHILIPPINES--AUSTRALIA WEST
JAPAN/EAST- AUSTRALIA/ (EAST), PNG. NZL
ALEUT./ KAMCHATKA- EASTERN PACIFIC/ HAWAII
WESTERN USA+ WEST COAST- EASTERN PACIFIC- CANADA-ALASKA
GULF OF MEXICO/ PANAMERICA/CA./ CENTRAL USA/ SOUTH - AMERICA- WEST
, EASTERN ATLANTIC/ (CANARIES/ ICELAND)- N & S- AMERICA/ EAST
CENTRAL (WEST) EUROPE/ AFRICA
INDIA & INDIAN OCEAN- CENTR: EURASIA, AFRICA (EAST), ARABIA ASIA MINOR
AUG 2014: DAILY SOLAR REVIEWS ARE BEING REDUCED TO SIGNIFICANT SOLAR ACTIVITY DEVELOPMENTS !
means: you find only full reports, that cover all related data, if stronger activities occure. Some monthly archives might therefor contain only one daily review,. others might contain more. depending on the evolution of solar sun spot activity after the peak was reached on 2013
< date refers to available event data and summaries
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 19/0503Z from Region 2192 (S13E43). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Oct, 21 Oct, 22 Oct).
ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS INVOLVED IN MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITIES, CMEs OR SEPS ( other active regions are not posted)
USAF report on geophysical activity for previous day:>>
* graph only during significant events
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 513 km/s at 19/0426Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 19/1354Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 19/1741Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 272 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (20 Oct) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (20 Oct, 21 Oct, 22 Oct).
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M1 event observed at 06/1709Z from Region 2157 (S14E44). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Sep, 08 Sep, 09 Sep).
ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS INVOLVED IN MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITIES, CMEs OR SEPS ( other active regions are not posted)
USAF report on geophysical activity for previous day:>>
* graph only during significant events
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 430 km/s at 06/2049Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 06/1531Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 06/0512Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9 pfu at 06/0740Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 286 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (07 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (08 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (09 Sep). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (07 Sep), are likely to cross threshold on day two (08 Sep) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (09 Sep).
20140430: protons appproached again from polar Earth orbit-
meaning of background colors>
yellow= this particles are currently active/ dominant
red= strong event
} orange background = ACTIVE electrons/ but their effectivity is PENDING OR INTERFERED BY PROTONS/ or> PROTONS are still too fast to envolve significant effects
CURRENT SEP/ PROTON EFFECTS
May 23- 2014: Protons- particulary from the high speed SEP on APR 18. partic. also from minor recent solar eruptions (AR 12071) are still active in the geomagnetic field with an increase of magmatic activities at the same time. At 22 UTC a sudden increase of electron density likely marked the end of the effectivity these protons had in the geomagneticmfield over the last days and weeks
20140610: integral electrons flux signficantly began to rise and might reach tresholds soon in the coming days. The increase followed a strong depression of the electron flux by former SEP and solar protons effects and indicate that these protons effects those lasted for more than 1 month are over now. hot spot activities have again dcreased yet in the last weeks The electron accumulation now will bring again high temperatures and droughts to the Northern hemisphere, as welll as sudden tornadoes, thunderstorms . I am not sure, how the high tension of the integral electron fluxmight induce cururents into ships on high seas power grids and other electric devices but several servers ship incidents those occured during electron accumulations in the greomag field suggest that ea. are capable for.
The current state of particles within the geomag. field is after quite a dozen part. accumulating SEPs since autum 2013 is rather confusing and data plots dont`t allow exact results.
might persist for several weeks now after those these electrons will finally discharge. This last SEP phase expected in about 3 weeks sometime end of June 2014 ( if no further solar SEPs occures) with cooling down of and contraction effects on the affected tectonic plates those likely finally will trigger strong and CATASTROPHIC earthquakes with magnitudes above M 9!!
20140607: The integral electron flux dropped again into negative values and continued so since JUne 03. The source of the disturbance are likely protons still active either from previous events or from recent solar protons emissions into interplanetary space
20140523/ 22 UTC There was a sudden increase of the integral electron flux after 22 UTC. There was no similar related event found on ACE data , thus the increase seems not to be related to a solar event, but rather marks the end of the effectivity , solar protons had on the geomagnetic field during the last days and weeks
20140523: During the second half of May 2014 , electrons were first rising as expected following the strong high speed SEP on April 18 ( with protons almost at the speed of light) . After May 17, the electron energy was again neutralized by those still active and after May 23 also by newly incoming protons ( activities in AR 12071) and fell into minus values, what does not mean, that these electrons would lose their cinetic energy by that . They rather get compressed and electrically neutralised by protons circulating with the field lines , what at least temporarely hampers their ability to cause thunderstorms and strong tornadoes or induced currents.
Temperature anomalies around the Northern pole continue since end of 2013 and brought again climatical extremes to the medium latitudes.
orange background >means: The electron effects of the last SEO were overlapsed by new SEP eventand currently deactivated or: HIGH SPEED SEP. Protons are still to fastto envolve significant effects
SEP EVENT HISTORY :
complex nested solar region AR 12036 (35- 37 produced and M 7,.8 LDE flare peaking with a CME at 13:19 UTC. The event was associated with a medium strong SEP. First Protons arrived soon after 13 uTC- thus were accelerated near to the speed of light,due to the fact , that the eruption took place near the central solar meridian and the proton speed is highest radially to the eruption center. means, that some proton effects such as hot spot activities will delay resp takle place slowly
The integral Electron flux began to increase after strongly been compressed by active protons. (20140415) Integral electron flux is expected to exceed treshold of 1.000 pfu on 20140416
after 12 UTC
Proton flux slightly increased to max 1.0 pfu after solar event
Integral,proton flux rose after CME event on 20140324 to values up to 1 pfu.
Integral proton flux has decreased to normal values after March 07. But the high amount of protons those impacted during this long lasting proton storm ist still effective with heat in the earth body and mantle .Hot spot activities are still present on the Canary islands. The proton influence also still knocks down the integral electron flux to zero and even into negative values. There is a slight recovery of the electron since March 17 . Values will further increase and exceed 100 pfu at any time in about 1 or two weeks ( SEP phase II) , if no new SEP occures.
Integral Proton flux increased further on February 28 and reached 100 pfu early in the morning. I have not reviewed the solar events yet. but protons storms/ eruptions are what I call " the invisible eruption"
(prelimnary) LOW ( increasing integral electron flux)
* latent potential for earthquakes with magnitudes higher than M 9.0! Some major catastrophic earthquake might likely happen, when effects of accumulated SEPs diminuish /.> 10 MeV electron accumulation will be neutralised, what is indicated , when electron energy suddenly will sharply drop at its end
NOTES: ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable
(In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intendedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!
20140620: remark: Currently I am examining whether also electron accumulations effect on hot spot or surface volcanism
July 2014: note: as the solar sun spot activity is decreasing now, major events will get less at least until May June 2014 .Therefor, this project is also limited now to basic updates. In July 2014 I decided to update this page only after significant event and changes and to turn this page into an monthly page that will cover significant events and can be archived then in that form.
January 25- 2014:
2013, after 2 years after the second major> M 9 Earthquake had taken place within on decade and after two years of statistic evaluation and comparation of solar and terestrial data, it became clear , that socalled SEPS would be the solar feature I was looking , being that solar feature, that indeed can even have strongest related and signiciant geophysical effects.
Now in early 2014, the peak off the sun spots cycle seems to be over and related activity visibly have decreased . I dont expect many stronger and significant solar events for the next half year.
Recently I decided, to close the ongoing solar and terrestrial documentary at this point in this form , as it was made until now., whith complete data and event evaluationas as its required for any scientific work . This I did to get this project to a point, that its results would be available and evaluable for further report and can be also a basic for further scientics research
Nevertheless as observations and evaluations have shown , that esp. the socalled SEPs ,this documentary has focussed on, as being the strongest and most geoeffective known type of solar event) do happen MOST frequently during the solar max, but are als present in the same strength all 11 years in between but just in lower number.
So I will continue to watch over all these solar data and event and try to provide a full report and complete coverage in time if any furthe major event should take place ..
so the solar teerrestrial blog will be continued in another simplified and limited form: