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last updated on:
2013
MAY 20 at: 07 :57 UTC
           
open source earthquake forecast project- Start- page - since May 2011-daily updated
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11 YEAR SUN SPOT CYCLE- MAXIMUM ACTIVITY IN 2012/ 13

SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG

According to NASA, this 24th. 11 year sun spot cycle has probably a " twin peak"- the second in 2015. This project therefore will be prolongued.
research and documentary of Solar activities (CME= Coronal Mass Ejections) with coincident/ related terrestrial effects such as : SoHO - LASCO C3
VOLCANO ERUPTIONS- EARTHQUAKES- STORMS- RAPIDE (PERMAICE) MELTDOWNS- METHANHYDRATES- INDUCED CURRENTS (TECH) - WHALE BEACHINGS- OTHER...

 

 

LATEST HEADLINES AND EVENTS THU- MAY 16- 2013- I am busy on this day! - update will be continued after 20 UTC!      
click on the fields with the CAPITAL LETTERS below to open and close register cards with more informations:
DATE:
21.05.2013
click for latest ARCHIVED BLOGS reports >  

SOLAR: ( LATEST SIGNIFICANT EVENT)

ACTIVE REGION 11748 PRODUCES THE HIGHEST FLARE ACTIVITY OBSERVED DURING THIS 24. SOLAR SUN SPOT CYCLE!

UPDATE/ MAY- 17- 2013: AR 11748 produced at all 4 X + class x flares until May 15, when a powerful X 1.7 LDE flare unleashed strong wide and FULLY HALO CME towards the Earth (more see below under CME event Nr 13, 1,b,c. While the overall high sun activity decreased just to B 8 level, also t he frequency of flares in AR 11748 became lower then,. The next M 3 flare followed 50 hours later on May 17 at 12 UTC. Just after 19 UTC another strong M flare occured, GOES has not even measured yet. AR 11748 will pass the central Meridian on May 19and is at least still capable for producing M+ or even single X flares and associated earth directed CMEs...

 

 

MAY- 14- 2013 AR 11748 appeared right behindvery active AR 11745and surprisingly produced THREE impulsive X flares yet during the past 24 hours! MAY- 13: An X 1 flare at 2:00 UTCwas associated to a strong wide CME that appeared partial halo on SoHO- AR 11748 rotated in on May 14(N11E81) just behind and interacts with aneighbored AR 11745. An impulsive M flare followed at 12:03 UTC from AR 11748. Shortly after that. AR 11748 produced another X 2.8 flare at 16:14 UTC The associated CME was also very wide and formed with the earlier M event a FULL HALO CME. LAST NOT LEAST. AR 11748 produced yet ANOTHER X 3 flare early on MAY 14 ( around 01 UTC). (No images were yet available from that event). ALSO A PROTON INCREASE WAS OBSERVED WITHIN THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD (GOES) after May 13/ 23 UTC. .
SOLAR
   
MAY- 14- 2013

THE HIGHEST ACTIVITY OBSERVED DURING THIS 24. SOLAR SUN SPOT CYCLE!

MAY- 14- 2013 AR 11748 appeared right behindvery active AR 11745and surprisingly produced THREE impulsive X flares yet during the past 24 hours! MAY- 13: An X 1 flare at 2:00 UTCwas associated to a strong wide CME that appeared partial halo on SoHO- AR 11748 rotated in on May 14(N11E81) just behind and interacts with aneighbored AR 11745. An impulsive M flare followed at 12:03 UTC from AR 11748. .Shortly after that. AR 11748 produced another X 2.8 flare at 16:14 UTC The associated CME was also very wide and formed with the earlier M event a FULL HALO CME. LAST NOT LEAST. AR 11748 produced yet ANOTHER X 3 flare early on MAY 14 ( around 01 UTC). (No images were yet available from that event). ALSO A PROTON INCREASE WAS OBSERVED WITHIN THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD (GOES) after May 13/ 23 UTC. .
20130509 solen.info/ 20130509 : A very active region AR11745is just behind the northeast limb (near N12) and was the source of the day's only C5+ flare, a C9.0 event (wrongly assigned to AR 11744 by SWPC) at 23:16 UTC. An M3.9 flare was recorded at 00:57 UTC on May 10. Further M class flaring is possible.
APRIL 11 -2013

APRIL 11 -2013/ 07:14 UTC: AR 11719 produced a strong M 7 flare, while just passing the CENTRAL SOLAR MERIDIAN and JUST 9° NORTH OF THE SUN EQUATOR! A fully halo CME followed the strong eruption- ..The FULL HALO CME ( including half of the partial halo CME core) will arrive aprroximately on APRIL 13- 14 and must be expected to become a STRONG GEOEFFECTIVE EVENT

SDO images indicated further a solar quake( with subsequent proton storm) prior to the M 7 event began in the latter half of April 10 at 22 UTC , with several shockwave bringing SDO temporarely out of position. First Protons then indeed impacted into the geomagnetic just three hours after the M 7 flare and GOES measured a sharp 100 x increase of introgeomagnetig proton flux after 10: 30 UTC. (= Protons had been accelerated to appr 17.000 km/ second!) The propton storm began to decrease on April 13 and was almost back to normal valuies on April 15.THe FULL HALO CME in combination with that proton storm is likely to be one of the strongest EARTH DIRECTED CME events observed at least in the past two years
MARCH- 05- 2013 On April 05 a more active region 11719 rotated into view and produced an M 2.5 flare on March 05 from the Eastern limb. The wide CME unleashed during the event might have minor earth directed parts.-
APRIL- 01- 2013 APRIL- 01- 2013 Solar activity is increasing due to regular fluctuations.THE NEW AND LARGE REGION AR 11711 rotated in on the eastern limb. AR 11711 is large enough to produce M flares and will accompony us appr. until April 12

 

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RELATED INTERNAL PAGES ( LATEST EARTHQUAKE AND VOLCANO ACTIVITY- ARCHIVES

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> RELATED INTERNAL PAGES at alien-homepage:
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< EVALUATION OF SOLAR ACTIVITY AND GEOPHYSICAL EFFECTS
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< STATISTIC TIME LINE OF GLOBAL VOLCANO ACTIVITY
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<ALL ARCHIVES
 
LATEST CME GLOBAL IMPACT MAP ( internal):
 
layout notes: April- 18: Today I have adjusted the colors to the new background . I hope it makes the impressions more "quiet"
^ internal Earthquake statistics- with Sun activity curves : green = SUNSPOT NUMBER, Pink= SOLAR FLUX, blue= PLANETARY A INDEX
INTERNAL REGIONAL VOLCANO MAPS

click on the images or links below to get to my large regional maps, where you find all volcanoes around the world with descriptions , webcams and much more such as ancients sites! . Weekly regular activity updates, special earthquakes events with many functions:
Europe and Western Asia Africa and Arabic peninsula Central America and Mexico South America- Northern part South America- Southern part Central America and Mexico Northern America Kamchatka peninsula Japan region Indonesia and Philippines Australia and Southern Pacific
previous versions: world volcano map 1.0 world volcano map version 2.0
                               

SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG/ ARCHIVES: (SUN SPOTS EARTHQUAKE AND VOLCANISM/ ARCHIVES:

click on the month symbols to get to the specific pages:
2013 >              
2012 >
2011 >
2010 >
NOTE: I WILL APPLY A NEW ARCHIVE SYSTEM IN 2012. CLICK ON THE BUTTON (right) FOR THE NEW ARCHIVE DIRECTORY! >

 

TERRESTRIAL:

MAY- 17. 2013: CME CLUSTER IMPACT IN THE COMING DAYS >>>

The extreme activity in AR 11748 is associated to a major continuing PROTON STORM, that began shortly after the first X flare on May 13 and is with > 10 Me V Protons between 10 and 100 pfu alos the strongest and longest so far in 2013. The flancs of the first CMEs were noticable on Earth on May 15, while the( at least and currently 3 ) following ones- with AR 11476 approaching the central solar merdian- always come closer to FULLY HALO CME

 

MAY- 09-15. 2013: Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico)- due to media reports " cooking" : strong ash emissions and increase of activity. On MAY 15 firrst time evacuation plans were considered, as the volcanoe is psossibly near to a strong lave eruption that might esp endanger the capital M. City.

. HIGHEST ALERT LEVEL?

. HIGHEST ALERT MUST BE CONSIDERED FOR ANY ACTIVE VOLCANO IN THE WORLD MIGHT SUDDENLY ENHANCE ITS ACTIVITY NOW AND IN THE FURTHER ( 14) DAYS AND WEEKS.

RADIO BLACKOUTS MIGHT OCCURE IN TERRESTRIAL GRIDS OVER THE NEXT DAYS ( from MAY 17 on) AS WELL AS HIGH INDUCED CURRENTS ON POWER GRIDS, THOSE LEAD TO TRANSFORMER FIRE AND WORSE!.

MAJOR WARNING ALSO FOR SUDDEN STORMS AND THUNDERSTORMS!

MAY- 17- 2013: HE CURRENT RISK FOR MAJOR EARTHQUAKE IS RATHER LOW AND WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE BE lOW IN THE COMING 1.2 WEEKS!

MAJOR ARTHQUAKES POSSIBLY EXCEEEDING MAGNITUDES OF M 9.0 MIGHT OCCURE DUE TO THE STRONG ( PROTON) ACTIVITIES AFTER A LONGER LATENCY PERIOD (exact time: currently only estimatable depending on further solar activity- sometimes TOWARDS END OF May .Follow my daily updates!

 
TERRESTRIAL

 

APRIL 30/ 2013

New stronger seismic activity (> M 4.0) near REJIKIAVIK/ Iceland and KATLA VOLCANO

Today, April 30- 2013 , we have again the reaction of hotspot volcanoes as after all previous proton events.ETNA in Sicil performed its strongest eruption jet in 2013. A stronger seismic swarm began near the Azores today ( M 5.2) and tremor activity resumed also nearby El Hierro with initial quakes above 3.4 in just 12 km depth

 
April 30- 2013 Today, April 30- 2013 , we have again the reaction of hotspot volcanoes as after all previous proton events.ETNA in Sicil performed its strongestr eruption jet in 2013. A stronger seismic swarm began near the Azores today ( M 5.2) and tremor activity resumed also nearby El Hierro with initial quakes above 3.4 in just 12 km depth.
APRIL 21/ 2013

APRIL 21/ 2013> ANOTHER SOLAR QUAKE & PROTON STORMWHILE PREVIOUS ONE ON APRIL 11 WAS STILL ACTIVE >>

EXTENDED WARNING OF EARTHQUAKES POSSIBLY EXCEEEDING MAGNITUDES OF M 9.0 AFTER LATENCY PERIOD (exact time: currently only estimatable sometimes between May 3- 10?( follow my daily updates!

To my other surprise there is another proton storm today that started after 9 UTC, not much more than 10 days after the previous one that triggered many strong earthquakes those continued on APril 21. . And I want to say it frankly as it just accords to my research and statistic comparation>This second proton storm within 14 days might trigger a range of very powerful natural DISASTERS As WE HAVE WITNESSED THE LAST DECADE, with earthquake that MAY MOST PROBABLY EXCEED again the magnitude of M 9.0, when tectonic plates heated up now by the magnetic short circuit of the proton event ) will began to cool down and contract again!
APRIL 16/ 20 2013 APRIL 16/ 20 2013: Stronger earthquakes happen regularly immidiately during/ after proton Storms (those themselves likely are also caused by kinds of solar quakes) However, this time I I lifted my Earthquake alert too early ( was corrected today). The current situation is similar to the many massive earthquakes those followed the much stronger proton events after November 2004 and prior to March- 11- 2011, when stronger earthquake activity continued for weeks- after March 11 2011 even for month .. But - due to the lower intensity and duration of the proton storm on April 11- 12- 2013 earthquake magnitudes are at least lower and another quake higher than M 9.0 must likely NO MORE BE EXPECTED with this event. Otherwise - the current earthquake happen on land and not offshore, thus the direct damage can be much higher .
APRIL 16. 2013:

An extreme strong M 7.6 Earthquake occure d in the Iran Pakistan border region near to the triple conjunction between the African, Eurasian and Indo- Australian plate. - likely the strongest quake measured there in the last 100 ( or 1000?) years.
APRIL 15- 2013

APRIL 15- 23:30- another but MINOR CME arrived from a filament eruption observed on April- 12

APRIL 14- 19:30 The CME from the LDE event on APR 11 has at least three parts (cluster). A first impact began on APR 13 after 23: 30 UTC, the seocnd , main impact on APR 14 after 10:00 UTC. a third peak began on APR 14 after 17:30 UTC.

The proton storm associated with the solar event decreased again early on April 13 with also the > 10 MeV high speed proton spectrum dropping below the treshold of 100 pfu .
APRIL 13- 14- 2013 The proton storm associated with the solar event decreased again early on April 13 with also the > 10 MeV high speed proton spectrum dropping below the treshold of 100 pfu . Several major earthquakes usually and typically observed when a CME arrival is associated to a proton stormfollowed almost snychronously with thits arrival after 23 UTC and likely will continue on April 14. Its uncertain but POSSIBLE that A HIGH MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE MIGHT OCCURE ON APRIL 14 or 15 exceeding Magnitude M 8.0 (M 8.0 = Tsunami treshold strength!) >
April- 06 2013. April- 06 after 06 UTC - 2013- Goes measured a minor solar wind shock. likely the arrival of minor CME- rather a stronger sun wind stream from an C flare in AR 11713 observed on April- 04.The process of tectonic solling down again was interrupted by solar wind streams and particle emissions after April 06
April- 05 2013. The stronger contraction earthquakes as expected after the strong proton events and CME on March 15 - 22 have set in with an event related latency, conditioned by the grade of tectonic heating and expansion. Prior seismic volcanic activities as well as typical immidiate effects caused by geomagnetic CME impacts had continued until April 5
APRIL- 04- 2013 STRONG SEISMIC TREMORS BEGAN AROUND THE ICELAND REGION REACHING DOWN TO THE NORWEGIAN SEA. THE FIRST STRONG M 5.2 EVENT SEEMS NOT TO BE RELATED TO A SPECIFIC ICELANDIC VOLCANO
  FIND PREVIOUS EVENTS IN MY MONTHLY ARCHIVES ( since Febr 2013 only!)

 
CLICK HERE FOR MEDIA & OTHER EXTERNAL LINKS

NEWS CHANNELS:

( collecting of recommendable international news channels is still ongoing...): Note: This list is dedicated to get latest informations directly from regional news channels and sources all over the world . Alien-homepage does not take any responsibility for contents of websites posted on this list nor for their liability

  

AUSTRALIA, INDONESIA, PHILIPPINES

AFRICA

ASIA

AMERICA

EUROPE:

 
THE HERALD SUN / AUSTRALIA africareview.com   MSNBC / US BBC.com  
globalpost.       www.euronews.com/  

BY COUNTRIES:

  

EUROPE:

 ICELAND REVIEW ONLINE DER SPIEGEL ONLINE ( Germany) euronews.com/ englishrussia (Russia)  
  icenews.is (ICELAND)        

 

 scotsman.com

ruvr.ru (Russia)

      

AUSTRALIA REGION:

THE HERALD SUN / AUSTRALIA .radioaustralianews.net.au (FIJI ISLANDS): fijivillage.com  

 

 stuff.co.nz (NEW ZEALAND) solomontimes.com (SALOMON ISLANDS) fijitimes.com    

NORTHERN AMERICA

 CNN. com TIME.com /SCIENCE (SCIENTIFIC) tgdaily.com  

 

 UNITED PRESS INTERNATIONAL ABC- news GLOBAL NEWS (CANADA) winnipegfreepress.com  
  mlive.com/news        

 

 washingtonpost.com channel6newsonline.com FAIRBANKS/ ALASKA/ newsminer.com alaskadispatch.com  

CENTRAL AMERICA>

 INSIDE COSTA RICA ticotimes.net ( COSTA RICA) costaricantimes aztecanoticias.com ( MEXICO( Spanish language)  

SOUTHERN AMERICA>

 peruthisweek (PERU) .andina.com (PERU)      

PACIFIC

bigislandvideonews (Hawaii)

        

AFRICA

 www.aps.dz (ALGERIA) allafrica.com standardmedia.co.ke (KENIA) ZIMBABWE (Voice of America)  
        .thezimbabwean.co.uk  

> ARABIA

 ARABIC EMIRATES omanobserver.om www.iranwpd.co (IRAN) IRAN/ ENGLISH presstv.ir/  

ASIA

 Wijeya Newspapers Ltd.Colombo. Sri Lanka philippinenews.com english.ntdtv.com (CHINA) THE BORNEO POST- ONLINE  
  Thejakartapost.com (INDONESIA) philstar.com/(PHILIPPINES) zeenews.india.com (INDIA)

chinadaily.com.cn/ (China)

  
  pattayamail.com (Thailand) visayandailystar.com (PHIL.)

indianexpress.com ( INDIA)

 mdn.mainichi.jp (JAPAN)  
  vietnamnet.vn (VIETAM) shanghaidaily.com (CHINA) thehindu.com blogs.wsj.com (JAPAN)  
  fukushima-diary.com (best news on Japan`s meltdown!) gmanetwork (PHILIPPINES) punemirror ( NORTHERN INDIA) focustaiwan (TAIWAN)  
      greaterkashmir.com    

ALL REGIONS>

 REUTERS.COM wunderground.com/tropical storms Earth Observatory( NASA.    
  http://your-story.org        
           
GLÖBAL WATCH > thewatchers.adorraeli.com earthquake-report.com      
VARIOUS & RELATED SCIENTIFIC CHANNELS > spaceweather.com treehugger.com VOLCANO DISCOVERY EARTH SKY. ORG  
  ACCU WEATHER. COM wired.com/wired science WUNDERGROUND.com Nationalgeographic  
  science.nasa.gov spaceweather.com wired.com phys.org  
ORGANISATIONS NASA/earthobservatory http://www.greenpeace.de/   http://foodwatch.com.au/  
DIVERSE> 2012 Mysterious Mass Animal Death List (abovetopsecret.com) poleshift.ning.com naturalnews.com (food etc)  
  Volcano Webcams on wiredscience.com eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov Polar Science Center  
    (internal) latest CME global impact map- click on image to enlarge it:  

GREAT PROGRESS IN MY EARTHQUAKE FORECAST! ALL THREE MAJOR QUESTIONS LIKELY RESOLVED!

WHAT CAUSES ESP. THE LARGE EARTHQUAKE DISASTERS?

WHERE WILL THEY OCCURE?

3. WHEN WILL THEY OCCURE ( +/- 1 - 2 days)? read more about that in my blog of April- 06- 2013 ff.

JAN- FEB- 2013: INCREASING NUMBER OF (STILL MINOR) SOLAR PROTON EVENTS ( FLARES. STORMS)

ARE SOLAR PROTON STORMS RESPONSIBLE FOR MEGAQUAKES/ TSUNAMIS SUCH AS 2004 ( SUMATRA) and 2011 ( JAPAN?)

GENERAL REMARKS TO THE LONG TERM EFFECTS OF SOLAR PROTON EVENTS/ STORMS ( by: alien-homepage.de) :

: Several stronger earthquakes happen regularly immidiately during/ after Proton Storms (those themselves likely are also caused by kinds of solar quakes. Otherwise during that first phase, more exactly: DURING the proton storms when proton flux is elavated- as a typical antienergetic effect Protons have, everything that requires cinetic energies to work such as storms or volcanic activities are rather very low.
NOTICES/ OBSERVATIONS/ SUMMARIES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY- 2013

MARCH 2013 ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS:

 
MAR- 12- 2013 :a new very active group of sun spots AR ( 11692- 95) rotated into sight in the Eastern solar limb.AR 11692 was sprinkling with flares and might produce M class events over the coming 10 days.

FEBRUARY 2013 ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS:

INCREASING NUMBER OF SOLAR PROTON EVENTS?

Protons do not carry or emit energetic particles , thus their source mostly remains invisible on satellite imagery. But- as measurable on specific instruments on ACE and GOES, interplanetary PROTONFLUX began to increase on February 02/ 15 UTC.  This proton increase  peaked on Feb 03, is slowly dropping since then, but was still elavated on Feb 07- 2013. Another slight increase in PROTON FLUX was measured on Feb 07also within the geomag field caused by the arrival of a CME from a seldom proton flare on Feb 08 ( AR 11667) >>

Regarding the low x ray values ( B- C class only( during the latest solar eruptions might easily make believe and lead to the error , that the eruptive activity in our central star is very low. The partial impact of the recent CMEs observed on FEB 06 however was much stronger than the solar eruption had indicated before. Only ACE EPAMp and SIS ata reveal: AR 11667 had produced sveral minor proton flares , those are the strongest type of solar eruptions, though they appear  as rather small  in imageries and x- ray measurements. Protons are invisible for cameras and the free eye and what was visible during of eruption are the initial nuclear reaction  and the electrons activited and emitted with that proton event. Another sudden increase of interplanetary proton even was measured after an unknown unspecific event by ACE EPAMp and SIS on February 08. AR 11667 only produced a minor B 2 flare on February 08 while a LDE flared over 2 days on the backside of the Sun. Several rythmical events were observed on STEREO during these the Sun emitted particles and solar wind pulses in all directions. Interplanetary proton flux began to decrease afterwards and was on Feb 11 almost back to normal levels. Moscow cosmic ray stations that measures Neutron flux , registered an increase in neutrons since January  2013 to highest levels measured in the past two years.beisde. Electron and proton flux always is correlated and the measured values show that these free proton usually combine with free electron to Neutrons already in the planetary medium and impact as neutrons then. Neutrons are energetic particles , those have no charge - as their electron activity is neutralised / surpressed by the proton gravity and cannot escape from the neutron . in other words. Neutrons are particles those store their electron energy like an accumulator . No energetic or paradox effects would be expected by neutrons. However nothing is known yet how neutron might or do effects the Earth environment . What is known is that neutrons integrate in other atoms and alter them first temporarely into isotopes , those later change their element  in terms of the elements periodic system . Best known example is the C 14 ( carbon 14) isotope produced by solar neutron impacts , used for to determine the age of organic substances. C 14 decays in a halflife time of 5,730±40 years to Nitrogen , when the absorbed additional neutron (as it has no proton and electron pair as equivalent) deacys into a proton and electron again. C14 halftime method"

The i ncreasing number of- allthough still minor- proton flares and events observed since January 2013 indicate : the Sun obviously entered a new phase in its 11 year sunspot cycle activity, suggested to peak around March 21- 2013- producing more and more proton flares. The most real AR 11667 produced only proton flares during the past week. Any protons emissions however reduce/ swallow much of the electron and x ray emission of the eruption and give us by their PARADOX EFFECTS by altering measurements, based on electron activity (magnetometers, radiation etc.) easily a false impression of these events, those have therefore carefully to be observed

 

FEB 02- 06/ 07 and 09 / 2013:

Protons do not carry or emit energetic particles , thus their source mostly remains invisible on satellite imagery. But- as measurable on specific instruments on ACE and GOES, interplanetary PROTONFLUX began to increase on February 02/ 15 UTC.  This proton increase  peaked on Feb 03, is slowly dropping since then, but was still elavated on Feb 07- 2013. Another slight increase in PROTON FLUX was measured on Feb 07also within the geomag field caused by the arrival of a seldom proton flare on Feb 08 ( AE 11667) >>

FEBRUARY- 06 2013:

An impulsive C 8 class.(PROTON?) flare took place in AR 11667 on Feb- 06- 2013 after 00: 15 UTC and created an impresssive magnetic arc ( prominence) after 3 UTC to new AR 11699. The associated fast CME was partial- fully halo on SoHo and will arrive appr. on Feb- 08. AR 11699 rotated in at the eastern limb and appears to be the currently most active regions (AR) on the visible Sun disc.

FEBRUARY 10- 2013:

An impressive eruption - was observed on February 09 after 06:11 (4) in the spotted region S 2212 between AR 11667 and AR 11670 accompanied by magnetic arcs and prominences. Interplanetary Proton flux already increased after on February 08, then dropped again . The interplanetary increase of electrons measured shortly before the minor CME arrrived on Feb 11 indicated that this CME has a negative polarity/ charge
 

JANUARY 2013- last observed activity characteristics :

  

An significant increase in solar activity was noticed since begin of 2013. Since the Sun more and more makes "summersets" in activity. Last event images above) was another seldom SOLAR PROTON OUTBREAK "PROTON STORM" that began on Jan- 17 after 00 UTC and is ONGOING. ( the 5fth within the last year). What appears as a malefunction is just a dark matter effect  caused be the proton eruption that obviously began after 18 UTC ( 4) at the Western limb from where it typically ran like a shock wave through and over the entire Sun ( solar proton storm) . I will try to get a video version of the events soon. SOON after the event solar surface activity also inmcreased an unleashed a stronger CME form MINOR spotted AR 11550. Protons flux into the geomagnetic filed increased on January 17- after 00 UTC.(read more and see realted sat- plot below)

From November - December 2012 a new type of solar activity characteristic related to the upcoming 11 year sun spot peak could be observed on satellite imageries:  Coronal Holes- known to be layers out of higher, heaver and denser solar fusion elements pushed upwards to to the solar surface by convection- began to appear dissapear and somertimes reappear in a quicker rate than ever observed before during the last 2 years. This might be related to the 2 solar proton outbbreaks registered in Nov and Dec- 2012.

During winter soltice solar activity parameters were as low as in all previous years, a phenomenon that is rather mysterious. At all, the solar activity parameters ( sun spot number, bg x ray flux) were unusual LOW especially during the year 2012 and did not meet the expectations, scientists had into their giant solar observer program, lounched fo this 11 years cycle peak. Its suggested that two solar acticvity cycles (caused by somewhat still totally unknown! maybe any cosmical influence? ) interfer with one another , the 11 years cycle with another 60 year cycle.

 
click here to read more (expand and collapse register card)
Entire storms systems as statistics indicate seem to can come to a stillstand by such a proton impact. Other data show that protons can even swallow electrons ( memory charges) from harddiscs as more as if these ar plugged to the grid or connected to the web. and surely proton storms do interrupt all kinds of radio transmissions. After the proton storm itself has decreased regularly an electron storms sets in that last again for some days. During that time, all kind of cinetic effects set in: Mainly sudden thundestorms, and increasing volcano activities preferently those of hot spot volcanoes. Induced currents effecting down to the Earth surface with potential of heavy damage to power grids are seldom, but TYPICALLY OCCURE ESPECIALLY AFTER PROTON EVENTS when the proton and succeeding electron storms( impact reaches certain strength. This phase now last normally not more than 10 days until the affected tectonic plates would cool down again and contract, what leads to the second and final phase with the chance for another STRONG EARTHQUAKES. The described single phase are prolongued amplified or mindered WHEN NEW CME events occure , those might contain more protons or electrons. Its hardly then to forecast but current data show, that by the fact that protons shift the geomagnetic charge temporarely to positive values, that short circuit that lets flow solar energies right through the magnetic field lines (MPI MUnich) into the Earth core, the Earth can likely sum up and even store these energies for a long time ( by forming neutrons) what includes the risk of a concentrated energetic breakouts in different forms.
find more info such as on latest CME events in TODAY`S PRELIM. REPORT just below!  
TRAFFIC LIGHT ALERT SYSTEM:
WATCH/ ATTENTION LOW: RISING HIGH DECREASING:
 

 

  
IMPORTANT NOTES AND UPDATES ON THIS PAGE : : This page is under steady development and layout may change from time to time. Reports on related events may be added at any time and will be posted to that day`s blog on which these events happened- click here to read more....
IMPORTANT NOTES:
CONTENTS: This page is under steady development and layout may change from time to time. Reports on related events may be added at any time and will be posted to that day`s blog on which these events happened, finally providing good and overseeable evidence that support the projects goal- how solar activities ( esp. resp CMEs) are correlated with terrestrial effects. .( mainly volcanisms storms, and later destructive "friction(/ contraction earth quakes- but also technical reports are added if there might be a coincidence) 
LAYOUT

This blog requires to check much data sometimes and therefore sometimes also much time. LAYOUT will be adjusted to the needs, resp the progress in understanding a make while proceeding this research
ERRORS, Sometimes- esp, if I am busy with other things, it also happens, that I leave quite a few typing or grammatical mistakes ( my native language is German) in the first daily blogs or: I forget to update the one or other section/ field. However: all daily blogs are AT LEAST ONCE revised at that time before I archive them . Doing this, most errors or failures left on this project page will (as I hope) become obvious during this final revision and will be corrected then in the archived reports! Thanks- alien -homepage.de
   
   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

    

2013

MONTH:

MAY

 BRIEF INFOS

DAY:

20

TODAY`S LATEST :

          
                                 

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
SOURCES>> NASA/ GOES EUMETSAT METEOSAT (EUROPE)

NOAA/ Hurricane Center

METEOALARM

 usno.navy.mil NOAA  
REPORT BY: NAME/ TRACKING LINK EMERGED ON: REGION WIND SPEED COORDINATES appr. GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY MEDIA REPORTS  
wunderground.com                    
                                 
                                                 
EXPERIMENTAL) CME EFFECT FORECAST: note: forecasts in this report are based on statistic comparation and without guaranty! Events might set in with one or two days deviation. Earthquake strengths are rather overexeggerated and might differ for one magnitude!  

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130515- 21

int. CME Nr. >>

 CME cluster Nr 23 a-d / 13

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

  

 

 * note: Due to the necessary evaluation of incoming data, NOAA space weasther alerts are oftenly BACKDATED!  

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

 PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

 IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

 ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES  

ALERT LEVEL

 VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

ATLANTIC

 MULTIPLE CME CLUSTER LONGITUDES : 30° - 60°/120° W

 

ALERT LEVEL

* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

  

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

  
CME IMPACT

SUDDEN (THUNDER- STORMS

ALASKA/ KAMCHATKA

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

EURASIA >< AFRICA ><S & N- AMERICA

 

 INCREASING ELECTRONS ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3) hh

FLARES

X RAY EVENT

NONE NONE  

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

 SECONDARY REGIONS : CENTERED AT: 33° S- 57° N SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

20. MAY 2013

   CME TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS: NONE NONE  

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

 NORTH AMERICA WEST

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

 LONGITUDES: 135°W- 45° E

 

M 5.5- 6.5 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (CME IMPACT)

   RADIO BLACKOUT

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

 NONE NONE  
INDUCED CURRENTS SOUTH AMERICA/ WEST

EURASIA >< AFRICA ><S & N & S AMERICA

 

21. MAY 2013

    

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

 G1 G1  
MINOR RADIO BLACKOUTS WESTERN PACIFIC LONGITUDES: 15°W- 180° W

 

M 5.5- 6.5 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (LATENCY)

 

SOLAR STORMS:

SOLAR STORMS ARE INTENSIVE PARTICLE EMISSIONS

  
WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) EURASIA EAST

PACIFIC ><EURASIA >< ARABIA >INDO-AUS

 

22. MAY 2013

   > 0.8 MeV

ELECTRON STORM

< 1000 pfu.(CME DISTURBANCE )

< 1000 pfu.(CME DISTURBANCE )

    

ELECTRON STORM AFTER PROTON STORM

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS:

 

M 5.5- >6.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

 1-3 LATENCY(preliminary)  

> 2.0 MeV

ELECTRON STORM

< 100 pfu. (PROTON INFLUENCE)

< 100 pfu. (PROTON INFLUENCE)

  

OTHER:

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION

GLOBAL *REGIONS> see definition below LONGITUDES : ALL

 

 LATENCIES:
  > 10 MeV PROTON STORM

>1.0 pfu decreasing

 >10 pfu S 1 .  

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES

 ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: LIKELY LOW!   EARTHQUAKES DELAYED BY > ACTIVE ELECTRONS PROTON INFLUENCE   Bz GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT POSITIVE (ACTIVE PROTONS) NEUTRAL NEGATIVE ( ACTIVE ELECTRONS  

TECTONICS

 COOLING DOWN AFTER PROTON/CME IMPACT COOLING DOWN (LATENCY/ ENDING) UNCERTAIN    

 

 EFFECTING AS > INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS (PROTONS)  

P/E

NEUTRONS-SYNTHESIS < -09 > -10 rising < -10 > -11 dropping < significant changes only (no alerts)  

 
                                 

register card CLICK HERE TO OPEN AND CLOSE COLLAPSIBLE PANEL WITH TODAY`s COMPLETE PRELIMINARY REPORT

   

 

 

 

 

 

  

2013

MONTH:

MAY

 

DAY:

20

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 
- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

 REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 
      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

 Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS >  

 

 EPICENTER/ MAP TSUNAMI WARNINGS    
Note:, as earthquake data are oftenly revised the next day by EMSC,this section will mostly be completed later this day . ! click here for MEDIA report   ISSUED AT:   CANCELLED:  

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

 DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS > FOR REGIONS:  

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME >   LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

 

DEPTH >

 

 WAVE/HEIGHT   FREQUENCY  

 

 

                   note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!  
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

 FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0):

 
               
               
               

WATCHING: EXTRAORDINARY AND NEW EVENTS AND REGIONS:

NUMBER= ALL EVENTS AS LISTED BY EMSC OR USGS

numbered are events > M 2.0 with single events exceeding magnitude M 4.0.

  
               
               
LOW MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKES THOSE ARE RATHER SWARMS OR VOLCANIC TREMORS:    
               
               
GENERAL LIST OF OTHER MAIN EARTHQUAKE REGIONS as observed and monitored in this report: ( listed from longitude 180 ° E on WESTWARDS). Events: > M 2.0 < M 5.0

 
EARTHQUAKE REGIONS/ FROM 180° E ON WESTWARDS FREQUENCY/ SINCE REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS:  

KAMCHATKA PENINSULA/ KURIL ISLANDS / JAPAN

 FREQUENT

"B"

     N-AMERICA >< EURASIA >< PACIFIC><PHIL.  

PACIFIC/MAINLY WEST/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC.

 FREQUENT

"B"

     PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA  

REGION INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES/ INDIA

FREQUENT

"A"

     EURASIA >< / INDO AUSTRALIA  

ARABIC PLATE -SYRIA, IRAQ ETC. INCL. IRAN

 FREQUENT

"F"

     AFR><ARAB >< EUR><INDO-AUS  

AFRICA- MAINLY RED SEA REGION & INDIAN OCEAN

 SELDOM

"F"

     EURASIA>< AFRICA>< N-AMERICA ><ARABIA >< INDO-AUS >< ANTARCTICA  

EASTERN TURKEY / Near city of VAN

 PERMANENT

"F"

     ARABIA><EURASIA  

WESTERN TURKEY

 PERMANENT( higher since 2011)

"F"

     ARABIA>< EURASIA  

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

JULY 2012

"F"

     EURASIA >< ARABIA >< AFRICA  

CONTINENTAL EURASIA INCLUDING ASIA

 SELDOM

"E"/"F

     EURASIA>< AFRICA >> ARABIA  

GERMANY / NEAR TO KOBLENZ ( EIFEL VOLCANIC FIELD)

 SELDOM

"E"

     EURASIA (volcanic) ^NOAA/ PTWC TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS ^internal: LATEST CME IMPACT MAP  

MEDITERRANEAN SEA REGION (ALL)

FREQUENT

"E"

     AFRICA >< EURASIA  

NORTHERN ITALY

 SINCE MAR 2012

"E"

     AFRICA >< EURASIA  

AFRICA AND ITS TECTONIC BOUNDARIES

 SELDOM

"E"

     EURASIA >< AFRICA>< AMERICA >< ANTARCTICA  

CANARY AND AZORES ISLANDS REGION

 NOVEMBER - 14-2012

"E"

     N-AMERICA >< AFRICA >< EURASIA  

REGION PERU- BOLIVIA

 FREQUENT

"D"

     PACIFIC >< SOUTH AMERICA >< NASZA  

REGION CHILE / ARGENTINE ( SA/ NASCA PLATE)

 FREQUENT/ OCT- 2012

"D"

     SOUTH AMERICA >< NASZA  

GULF OF MEXICO (GOM)/ MAINLY PUERTO RICO REGION

 VARYING

"D"

  

 

 CARIBBEAN><ATLANTIC >< AFRICA  

PANAMERICA

 FREQUENT SINCE 2012

"D"

     N & SOUTH AMERICA >< COCOS  

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

 AUGUST- 28- 2012

"C"

  

 

 SAN ANDREAS FAULT >< JUAN DE FUCA  

CANADA, ALASKA/ (CASCADIAN SZ)

 SOMETIMES

"C"

  

 

 NORTH-AMERICA ><EXPLORER PLATE  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

 *"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  

 

 
20130520/ 16:24 UTC   20130520/ 13:54 UTC 20130520/ 06:13 UTC 20130520/ 16:27 UTC 20130520/ 15:12 UTC    
  no image yet available  
 
 
 
 
STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) SoHO/ LASCO C 3 (3) STEREO-"Behind" (4) SDO /AIA-comp (5) SDO /AIA-comp (6) SDO /AIA-comp SoHO/ LASCO C 3      
   
                       

maps >

  

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 
         

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
SOURCES>> NASA/ GOES EUMETSAT METEOSAT (EUROPE)

NOAA/ Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Center

METEOALARM

 usno.navy.mil NOAA  

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

appr. GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

 DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

  
wunderground.com                      
                     

VARIOUS REPORTS:_

                   
                           
                   
       
                     
   

 
                   
   

 
               
 

 

 
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

 

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

 

FLARES >

C

 

 

CH UNN.

> 60° NORTH

 QUICKLY GROWING

MAY- 18- 2013

MAY- 24- 2013?

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

 

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

 

 

M

 

 

CH UNN.

> 60° SOUTH

 GROWING (LARGE)

MAY- 15- 2013

MAY- 20- 2013?

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

 

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

 

 

X

 

 

          

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

            

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

 NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

 SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS> NONE  
faded again(MAY 19)

11743

75° - 89° W

23 °  N

AXX

  

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

 T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

 UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 
 

11744

64 ° - 78° W

03 °  N

CAO/ CRO

  

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (EVOLUTION) :

 
 

11745

40 ° - 54° W

13 °  N

CAO

           ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>>

DECREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

  
 

11746

37 ° - 51° W

27 °  S

DSO/CSO

           LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130421

unclear

 < LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)  
 

11747

44 ° - 58° W

18 °  S

HRX/ CRO

  

 

 

 

   PREVIOUS MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130421

20130430 ( MAX)

 
 

11748

04 ° - 18° W

11 °  N

FAO/ DAI

 

      

 

        

 
rotated out >

11749

78 ° - 92° W

23 °  S

BXO

 

        

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

 red letters = currently most active region  
 

11750

69 ° - 83° W

11 °  S

DAI/CAI

 

      

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

 alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
faded (MAY 18)

11751

00 ° - 14° W

24 °  S

AXX

 

       *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
faded (MAY 19)

11752

50 ° - 64° W

17 °  N

CRO/ BXO

MAY- 17

              
NEWLY EMERGED

S2427

78° E

104° N

C 9.8 flareat 17:50 UTC

MAY- 26

 17:50 UTC LEO NONE        

NEWLY SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

04

 

         INTERPLANETARY. REMARKS    

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

           PROTON FLUX

HIGHTENED

 strong increase after X class activities on May 13/04 UTC- dropping again since MAY 17/ 16 UTC.  

 

  

 

^CME Nr.

       ELECTRON FLUX HIGHTENED

strong increase after X class activities on May 13/04 UTC- dropping again since MAY 17/ 16 UTC.

  

internal remarks:

 

 

        

 

 PROTON STORM ENDED DECREASING INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

 

  
                 

 

  

 
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

  

 

     2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 
 

 

 
TODAY` S EARTH DIRECTED CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME):

this section will always appear, when a significant CME event was noticed and data have to be updated. You find more information about recent CME events in " today`s preliminary report"

  
- NONE YET-                  
   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

            

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130515- 21

int. CME Nr. >>

 CME cluster Nr 23 a-d / 13

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

 PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

 IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

 VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

ATLANTIC

 MULTIPLE CME CLUSTER LONGITUDES : 30° - 60°/120° W

 

ALERT LEVEL

* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

 
INCREASING ELECTRONS

SUDDEN (THUNDER- STORMS

ALASKA/ KAMCHATKA

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

EURASIA >< AFRICA ><S & N- AMERICA

 

 INCREASING ELECTRONS ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

 SECONDARY REGIONS : CENTERED AT: 33° S- 57° N SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

20. MAY 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

 NORTH AMERICA WEST

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

 LONGITUDES: 135°W- 45° E

 

M 5.5- 6.5 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (CME IMPACT)

 
INDUCED CURRENTS SOUTH AMERICA/ WEST

EURASIA >< AFRICA ><S & N & S AMERICA

 

21. MAY 2013

 
MINOR RADIO BLACKOUTS WESTERN PACIFIC LONGITUDES: 15°W- 180° W

 

M 5.5- 6.5 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (LATENCY)

 
WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) EURASIA EAST

PACIFIC ><EURASIA >< ARABIA >INDO-AUS

 

22. MAY 2013

 

ELECTRON STORM AFTER PROTON STORM

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS:

 

M 5.5- >6.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

 1-3 LATENCY(preliminary)

 

OTHER:

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION

GLOBAL *REGIONS> see definition below LONGITUDES : ALL

 

 LATENCIES:
 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES

 ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: LIKELY LOW!   EARTHQUAKES DELAYED BY > ACTIVE ELECTRONS PROTON INFLUENCE

 

TECTONICS

 COOLING DOWN AFTER PROTON/CME IMPACT COOLING DOWN (LATENCY/ ENDING) UNCERTAIN    

 

 EFFECTING AS > INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS (PROTONS)  
        * note: Due to the necessary evaluation of incoming data, NOAA space weasther alerts are oftenly BACKDATED!  

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment:

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

 ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

QUIET

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

UNSETTLED

FLARES

X RAY EVENT

NONE NONE

 

ACTIVE

 CME TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS: NONE NONE

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 RADIO BLACKOUT

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

 NONE NONE

 

MAJOR STORM

  

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

 G1 G1  

 

SOLAR STORMS:

SOLAR STORMS ARE INTENSIVE PARTICLE EMISSIONS

  

CME IMPACT

 > 0.8 MeV

ELECTRON STORM

< 1000 pfu.(CME DISTURBANCE )

< 1000 pfu.(CME DISTURBANCE )

    

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (PROT.)

> 2.0 MeV

ELECTRON STORM

< 100 pfu. (PROTON INFLUENCE)

< 100 pfu. (PROTON INFLUENCE)

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

    > 10 MeV PROTON STORM

>1.0 pfu decreasing

 >10 pfu S 1 .  

EFFECTIVE PROTONS

     Bz GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT POSITIVE (ACTIVE PROTONS) NEUTRAL NEGATIVE ( ACTIVE ELECTRONS  
   

P/E

NEUTRONS-SYNTHESIS < -09 > -10 rising < -10 > -11 dropping < significant changes only (no alerts)

 
                 

GENERAL REMARKS TO THE LONG TERM EFFECTS OF SOLAR PROTON EVENTS/ STORMS ( by: alien-homepage.de) : : Several strong earthquakes happen regularly immidiately during/ after Proton Storms (those themselves likely are also caused by kinds of solar quakes. Otherwise during that first phase, more exactly: DURING the proton storms when proton flux is elavated- as a typical antienergetic effect Protons have, everything that requires cinetic energies to work such as storms or volcanic activities are rather very low. Entire storms systems as statistics indicate seem to can come to a stillstand by such a proton impact. Other data show that protons can even swallow electrons ( memory charges) from harddiscs as more as if these ar plugged to the grid or connected to the web. and surely proton storms do interrupt all kinds of radio transmissions. After the proton storm itself has decreased regularly an electron storms sets in that last again for some days. During that time, all kind of cinetic effects set in: Mainly sudden thundestorms, and increasing volcano activities preferently those of hot spot volcanoes. Induced currents effecting down to the Earth surface with potential of heavy damage to power grids are seldom, but TYPICALLY OCCURE ESPECIALLY AFTER PROTON EVENTS when the proton and succeeding electron storms( impact reaches certain strength. This phase now last normally not more than 10 days until the affected tectonic plates would cool down again and contract, what leads to the second and final phase with the chance for another STRONG EARTHQUAKES. The described single phase are prolongued amplified or mindered WHEN NEW CME events occure , those might contain more protons or electrons. Its hardly then to forecast but current data show, that by the fact that protons shift the geomagnetic charge temporarely to positive values, that short circuit that lets flow solar energies right through the magnetic field lines (MPI MUnich) into the Earth core, the Earth can likely sum up and even store these energies for a long time ( by forming neutrons) what includes the risk of a concentrated energetic breakouts in different forms.

 

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

        

 

 PROTON STORM * compared to " normal" values INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

.

 
     
         

TODAY`S PRELIMINARY REPORT- ENDS HERE

 

            
SECTION: LATEST INFORMATION ON SOLAR ACTIVITIES EVENT RELATED INTERPLANETARY & GEOMAGNETIC DATA PLOTS IMAGES OR VIDEO SOURCES:  
(1) SOLAR REAL TIME / CURRENT SATELLITE DATA AND EVENTS  

 

 

              

 

REAL TIME images links for current views on the sun surface- click to enlarge

                    

 

HOW SOLAR ACTIVITY REPORTS ARE COMMONLY MADE:

SOLAR (NEAR) REAL TIME images as provided by satellites such as SDO, STEREO and SoHO are the first main source on Solar activity data: Various telescopes imaging different levels of frequencies can make sun spots, active regions visoiblöe as well as coronal holes and solar eruptions: solar prominences, flares and associated CMEs ( one exception are proton emissions those remain invisible on any usal imagery. Protons emissions and storms can be measured withe certain instruments instead ( GOES)

Second step is the interplanetary space and solar magnetic field . The Advanced Composition Explorer ( ACE) is "situated" on an geosynchronous orbit outside the geomagnetic field . This satellite has only measurement instruments onboard those deliver various data about the composition of the solar wind. Solar winds blow and circulate regularly through the interplanatary space . Coronal mass ejections and other extraordinary solar events eruptions throw large amounts of solar matter into the interplanetary space . ACE can deliver first data , how strong a possibly earth directed CME might be 1 - 2 days before those CMEs impact and answer the first primary question associated to any CME: Has the main CMEa positive or negative "POLARITY "-( =AN ESPECIAL - PROTON or ELECTRON charge)? means: is the incoming CME NEUTRAL, has it higher accelerated PROTONs or ELECTRONS. THis first question (which one of the two antagonists- the proton or electrons arrives first) determines whether a CME can fully impact into the geomagnetic field or almost NOT AT ALL!

Last not least, in the third step, the GEOSTATIONARY GOES SATELLITES measure what INDEED IMPACTS INTO THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD, basic for all space weather forecasts and forceasts as this one on my page, how strong EARTH DIRECTED CMES might unfluence nature and human civilisation!

-Go to "SOLAR CONTROL CENTER to find out more about these solar observatories or click on the many links on this page to get fisst hand informations!-

  
SOLAR REAL TIME SAT IMAGES AND PLOTS: note also: SDO, SOHO C3 and STEREO (360° VIEW°) REAL TIME IMAGES ON TOP OF THAT PAGE!        
GOES / CORONAL HOLES: SoHO/ L2 REAL TIME SDO/ AIA- REAL TIME ACTIVE REGIONS TODAY: ACE/ INTERPLANETARY PROTONS ACE/ INTERPLANETARY ELECTRONS NOAA PLOTS / PROTONS MOSCOW/ cosmic rays- NEUTRON FLUX:

 
 
  (2) SoHO/ LASCO C 2 (3) SDO /AIA-comp (4) SDO/ HMI ^ACE/ EPAMp 7 days plot ^ACE/ EPAMe 7 days plot Aurora borealis SoHO / REAL TIME SOLAR WINDS  
       

PROTON EVENTS

the Earth`s geomagnetic field electrons might defend the Earth even against CMEs from a X 10 flare, what poses the likely only danger , is the attack "from the other side" know as "protons events"

 about:  
               

 
                 
(1) STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) SoHO/ LASCO C 3 (3) SDO /AIA-comp (4) SDO/ HMI ^ACE/ INTERPLANETARY PROTONS ACE/ INTERPLANETARY ELECTRONS GOES/ GEOMAG. PROTON FLUX GOES 13/ GEOMAGNETIC ELECTRON FLUX  
      SoHO / REAL TIME SOLAR WINDS MOSCOW STATION FOR COSMIC RAYS/ NEUTRONS  

ABOUT: SOLAR PROTON EMISSIONS (proton flares or storms etc. ) ARE RARE EVENTS . But- differently to the mostly of negative charged (electrons) CMEs , PROTON CMEs effect (finally by associated energetic events) until deep into the ground and the Earth`s interior. Proton emissions impact fully into the (negatively charged) geomagnetic field by their positive electric charge and add a positive component to it, what makes the geomag. field TEMPORARELY then also vulnerable especially for following negatively charged CMEs . The protons themselves have paradox effects: first they swallow many electrons (likely reacting with them to neutrons what causes first a "geomagnetic depression" with lower field density (lessactive, free electrons) and paradox ANTIENERGETIC effects (best describable as the "calm prior to the storm" ) .. read more in text box above

  
     
(2) LAST EARTH DIRECTED CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME):

this section will always appear, when a significant CME event was noticed and data have to be updated. You find more information about recent CME events in " today`s preliminary report"

  

 

  
        STRENGTH REMARKS: LATEST CME IMPACT MAP (internal):  

DATE OF LAST CME ARRIVAL >

 ARRIVAL DATE:

20130516-

 SOLAR EVENT: 20130513-15 CME NUMBER 23/13

CLUSTER

 STRENGTH >

HIGH! ( interfering with previous events)

    
               
CURRENTLY GEO EFFECTIVE CMEs: TOTAL :

02

CME event Nr: 23/ 13

        
         

(ongoing)

    
CURRENTLY APPROACHING CMEs TOTAL :

1-2

 ESTIMATED ARRIVAL(S)

 

      

 
                 
LATEST MAJOR EARTH DIRECTED CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME):

this section will always appear, when a significant CME event was noticed and data have to be updated. You find more information about recent CME events in " today`s preliminary report"

  
X CLASS EVENTS AND CME CLUSTER/ 20130513-17                  

ONGOING CME ARRIVALS CLUSTER!!)

CME/ Nr.:

23- a-d /13

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

 SEASONAL MAIN IMPACT LATITUDES:

60° N- 60° S

 STRENGTH: 2-3  

ARRIVAL DATE:

 AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENT

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

  

> 100 nT

 MAIN/ UTC POLARITY: REL. MASS VALUE MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  

20130515- 20

AR 11748

 87° - 24° E 11° N 4 X+ CLASS EVENTS/ CME CLUSTER MAY 13/04 UTC- MAY 17( 1:11 UTC CLUSTER after 09 UTC 140 nT* (   influenced by proton storm 14- 60° /120° W associated to longest proton storm measured in the last two years! HIGH* ATLANTIC/ KAMCHATKA  
REMARKS: STRRONG geomagnetic depression caused by > 10 pfu protopn storm( MAY 13- 21- dim.) lowered by proton influence!)   total impact: 40 hours* 165° W- 15° E E   WESTERN AMERICA & PACIFIC / INDONESIA/ INDIAN OCEAN  
MULTIPLE CME EVENTS ( CLUSTERS) AND LATENCY EFFECTS:
t MULTIPLE CME CLUSTER ASSOCIATED TO PROTON STORM/ estimated IMPACT duration: APRIL 23- 25
  
CMEs/ APPROACHING:
CLUSTER
* (incalculable because of proton storm
LATENCIES >
EASTERN EURASIA
GLOBAL
  
                         

20130517

 CMEs at:

08:57 UTC

 ARRIVAL:

MAY 19-20

 POLARITY: ALPHA BETA UNKNOWN  

GOES/ GEOMAG. PROTON FLUX

 GOES / X- RAY (nuclear activity/ solar flares)  

TRACKING NR.:

23 d/13

 20130517/ 11:09 UTC 20130517/ 09:13 UTC 20130517/ 09:48 UTC 20130517/ 11:06  

 

ACTIVE REGION:

11748

  

 

Earth directed?

FULLY HALO  

 

SUN COORDINATES:

  

 

38 ° - 24° E

11 °  N

  

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

  

 

impulsive LDE flare

 M 3.2  
PROTON EMISSION/ STORM! (1) STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) SDO /AIA-comp (3) SoHO/ LASCO C 2

(4) SoHO/ LASCO C 3

  

 
TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << RADIO BLACKOUT WARNINGS  

Abbreviations

LDE=

Long Duration Event

 

try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 
TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION EVENT REPORTS:    

2013

alien-homepage.de

 
10 cm RADIO BURST                        
                         
                       

20130515

 CMEs at:

01:59 UTC

 ARRIVAL:

MAY 17- 18

 POLARITY: ALPHA BETA UNKNOWN  

GOES/ GEOMAG. PROTON FLUX

 GOES / X- RAY (nuclear activity/ solar flares)  

TRACKING NR.:

23 c/13

 20130515/ 02:54 UTC 20130515/ 02:13 UTC 20130515/ 01:59 UTC 20130515/ 01:54 UTC  

 

ACTIVE REGION:

11748

  

 

Earth directed?

PARTIAL HALO  

 

SUN COORDINATES:

  

 

11° N

63° E

  

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

  

 

impulsive LDE

X 1.2 (LDE)  
PROTON EMISSION/ STORM! (1) STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) SDO /AIA-comp (3) SDO /AIA-comp

(4) SoHO/ LASCO C 3

  

 
TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << RADIO BLACKOUT WARNINGS  

Abbreviations

LDE=

Long Duration Event

 

try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 
TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION EVENT REPORTS:    

2013

alien-homepage.de

 
10 cm RADIO BURST                        
                         

20130514

 CMEs at:

01:11 UTC

 ARRIVAL:

MAY 16

 POLARITY: ALPHA BETA UNKNOWN  

 

TRACKING NR.:

23 b /13

     20130514/ 03: 09 UTC 20130514/ 01:11 UTC  

 

ACTIVE REGION:

11748

      

 

Earth directed?

PARTIAL  

 

SUN COORDINATES:

  

 

81 ° - 67° E

11 °  N

  

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

  

 

impulsive flare

X 1.1  
PROTON EMISSION/ STORM! (1) STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) SoHO/ LASCO C 3 (3) SDO /AIA-comp

(4) SDO /AIA-comp

  

 
TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << RADIO BLACKOUT WARNINGS  

Abbreviations

LDE=

Long Duration Event

 

 
TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION EVENT REPORTS:      

 
10 cm RADIO BURST            
             

20130513

 CMEs at:

16:14 UTC

 ARRIVAL:

MAY- 16- 17

 POLARITY: ALPHA BETA UNKNOWN  

GOES/ GEOMAG. PROTON FLUX

 GOES / X- RAY (nuclear activity/ solar flares)  

TRACKING NR.:

23 a/13

 20130513/ 16:54 20130513/ 18:54 UT 20130513/ 16:14 UTC    

 

ACTIVE REGION:

11748

  

 

Earth directed?

FULLY HALO*  

 

SUN COORDINATES:

  

 
86° E 12° N  

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

  

 

impulsive flares

X 3.2  
PROTON EMISSION/ STORM! (1) SoHO/ LASCO C 3 (2) SoHO/ LASCO C 3 (3) SDO /AIA-comp

(4) SDO /AIA-comp

 TS

 
TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << RADIO BLACKOUT WARNINGS  

Abbreviations

LDE=

Long Duration Event

 

try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 
TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION EVENT REPORTS:    

2013

alien-homepage.de

 
10 cm RADIO BURST     * this event formed a full HALO on SoHo as it was associated to other CMEs: a filament eruption on the Northwestern quadrant and several minor CMEs from other active regions  
                       
PREVIOUS MAJOR EARTH DIRECTED CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME):

this section will always appear, when a significant CME event was noticed and data have to be updated. You find more information about recent CME events in " today`s preliminary report"

  
                       

PREVIOUS CME ARRIVAL

CME/ Nr.:

20 a- c/13

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

 SEASONAL MAIN IMPACT LATITUDES:

60° N- 60° S

 STRENGTH: 3 (STRONG)  

ARRIVAL DATE:

 AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENT

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

  

> 100 nT

 MAIN/ UTC POLARITY: REL. MASS VALUE MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  
CME cluster!/first arrival: 20130413/after 23:30 UTC

11719

16 °- 02° E

08 °  N

 M 7 flare with FULLY HALO CME! 20130411 07:14 UTC (main) 20130414/ after 10:00 UTC ( main CME) 160 (under proton influence)   10:30- 03 UTC( AP15)

10:30 - 03 UTC( APR-15)

 EVENT WAS ASSOCIATED TO SOLAR QUAKE AND A SHARP RISE OF INTROGEOMAGNETIC PROTON FLUX JUST 135 minutes after thesolar M 7 event 500 WESTERN EUROPE AND AFRICA/ ATLANTIC ( CANARIES!) - ALL AMERICAS/ USA WEST  
REMARKS:

impact long/lat >

   25° E- 00°- 180°- 150° E

165° W- 120° E

20° E- 135° W

 SECONDARY EASTERN PACIFIC (NZL, P.N.G. KAMCHATKA)/ EASTERN EUROPE  
MULTIPLE CME EVENTS ( CLUSTERS) AND LATENCY EFFECTS:

The CME was part of a multiple LDE event and has has at least thre eparts/ peaks

 
CMEs/ APPROACHING:

01 ( minor)

  
LATENCIES >
PROTONS
CME 21/13
  
                         

20130411

 CMEs at:

07:14 UTC

 ARRIVAL:

appr on March 23- 24

 POLARITY: ALPHA (PROTONS) BETA UNKNOWN  

GOES/ GEOMAG. PROTON FLUX

 GOES / X- RAY (nuclear activity/ solar flares)  

TRACKING NR.:

20/ 13

 20130411/ 08:54 UTC 20130322/ 04:22 20130411/ 06:45 UTC 20130411/ 07:14 UTC  

 

ACTIVE REGION:

AR 11719

    

 

Earth directed?

FULLY HALO!  

 

SUN COORDINATES:

  

 

16 °- 02° E

08 °  N

  

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

  

 

LDE flare

M 7  
PROTON EMISSION/ STORM! (1) STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) SoHO/ LASCO C 3 (3) SDO /AIA-comp

(4) SDO /AIA-comp

  

 
TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION

Abbreviations

LDE=

Long Duration Event

 

try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 
10 cm RADIO BURST     PRELIMINARY REPORT  

2013

alien-homepage.de

 

APRIL 11 -2013/ 07:14 UTC: AR 11719 produced a strong M 7 flare, while just passing the CENTRAL SOLAR MERIDIAN and JUST 9° NORTH OF THE SUN EQUATOR! A fully halo CMR followed the strong eruption .(Analysis is on the way and will be posted on the April 11 blog) NOAA issued an R 2 blackout warning. immidiately in effect.after the event The FULL HALO CME ( probably its core) will arrive aprroximately on APRIL 13- 14 and must be expected to become a STRONG GEOEFFECTIVE EVENT.

SDO images indicated further a solar quake( that likely triggered the later proton storm) prior to the M 7 event began in the latter half of April 10, with a shockwave bringing SDO temporarely out of position, what indicates that this event was directly triggered by the activity in AR 11719. First Protons then indeed impacted into the geomagnetic just three hours after the M 7 flare and GOES measured a sharp 100 x increase of introgeomagnetig proton flux after 10: 30 UTC. While values are still rising , it can be said right now, that this is likely to be the strongest proton event observed at least in the past two years with also the highest proton acceleration.

  
                       
               
                 
(ARCHIVED(- click here to open and close collapsible panel with LIST OF ALL TERRESTRIAL CME IMPACTS IN 2013
  
b                        
(ARCHIVED)- click here to open and close collapsile panel with LIST OF SOLAR PROTON EVENTS IN 2013
Inhalt

LATEST PROTON EVENTS & STORMS (SELDOM)

2013

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

> 10 MeV P. < 10 pfu.

> 10 MeV ELECT. > 1000 sfu

> 10 MeV ELECT. < 1000 sfu

 

SOLAR EVENT

< 10 MeV

> 10 MeV

PROTON FLUX UNITS (pfu) (max. peak).

PROTON EMISSION/ START

PROTON EMISSION/ END

ELECTRON INCREASE/ BEGIN

ELECTRON INCREASE/LATENCY/ END

REMARKS
PROTON STORM
(MAJOR) > 10 < 100 pfu
20130513/ 23:30 UTC
ongoing( MAY 27)
PROTONFLARE(?)
(minor) > 0.1 < 1.0 pfu
20130425/00 UTC
20130426/00 UTC
/DELAYED( APRIL 26/ 10 UTC
MAY- 14/ 08 UTC
( INTERRUPTED BY NEW PROTON EVENT)
PROTON STORM    
(minor) > 0.1 < 1.0 pfu
20130421/ 9:00 UTC
20130423 / 12 UTC
DELAYED BY NEW P- Storm
 ----
)
PROTON STORM    
> 100 pfu (x 1000)
20130411/ 7:14
DECREASING
      
PROTON STORM
    
> 10 pfu ( x 100)
20130315/ 18 UTC
20130318/ 20 UTC
20130320
APRIL 06- 2013
  
PROTON STORM*    
LOW (x1,5 only)
20130305/ 18 UTC
20130311
 interfered by new events  
PROTON STORM*    
LOW (x10)
20130227/ 01 UTC
20130228/18 UTC
 geomagnetic storming    
INTERPLANETARY    
fluctuating
20130224/ 06 UTC
20130226
INTERFERING
    
INTERPLANETARY    
fluctuationg
20130213/ 10 UTC
20130216/ 18 UTC
geomag(
low energy Protons
  
PROTON FLARE
    
low
20130207/ 06 UTC
20130209
20130208/ 06 UTC
interfering
  
INTERPLANETARY    

10 x

 20130202( 04 UTC 20130203decreasing INTERFERING WITH EVENT ON FEB 07  
PROTON STORM    

2 pfu

20130117/ 17 UTC

 JAN- 18 / 10 UTC JAN- 20 JAN 25 ( interfered with CME arrival and CH HSS  
PROTON FLARE    

100x/ flare

20130111/ 21 UTC

 JAN/ 12/ 06 UTC JAN/ 13/09 UTC ongoing  
PROTON STORM    

02 pfu

20121108

NOV- 12

 NOV- 14/ 16 UTC NOV 24 (by CME arrivals)  
                 
 

VARIOUS EXTERNAL SOURCES (CME)

            
INTERPLANETARY SOLAR WIND GEOMAGNETIC FIELD (all) RECENT SOLAR ACTIVITY ( by solen.info):  
ACE / ADVANCED COMPOSITION EXPLORER

GOES (GEOSTATIONARY OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL SATELLITES)

  
ACE- INTERPLANETARY SOLAR WIND GOEShp/ Geomag

 
ACE/SIS: PROTONS GOES/ X-RAY FLUX  
MOSCOW/ NEUTRONS GOES/ ELECTRONS  
MOSCOW/ NEUTRONS  
     
NASA/ISWA/animation of interplanetary CME evolution a.m.o. Magn complexity/ particle acceleration        

 

 

 

 

 

        

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT:

 

EXPLANATIONS>

Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.

Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./

orange= medium impact

Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME. Colors from orange to light red mark GRADUAL IMPACTS OF MULTIPLE CMEs CLUSTERS.

 

HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST>

INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions!

STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS

The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER a LATENCY period due to CME IMPACT on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES within the RED until the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Read "latency remarks"

 

REGIONS

REGION "A"

REGION "B"(1)

REGION "B"(2)

REGION "C"

REGION" D"

REGION "E" (1)

REGION "E" (2)

REGION "F"

RELATED CME EVENT

 

REGIONS COVERED BY LATEST CME IMPACT>

 EASTERN EURASIA-- INDONESIA-WESTERN PACIFIC PHILIPPINES--AUSTRALIA WEST JAPAN/EAST- AUSTRALIA/ (EAST), PNG. NZL ALEUT./ KAMCHATKA- EASTERN PACIFIC/ HAWAII WESTERN USA+ WEST COAST- EASTERN PACIFIC- CANADA-ALASKA

GULF OF MEXICO/ PANAMERICA/CA./ CENTRAL USA/ SOUTH - AMERICA- WEST

, EASTERN ATLANTIC/ (CANARIES/ ICELAND)- N & S- AMERICA/ EAST CENTRAL (WEST) EUROPE/ AFRICA

INDIA & INDIAN OCEAN- CENTR: EURASIA, AFRICA (EAST), ARABIA ASIA MINOR

CME CLUSTER FROM AR 11748 MAY 13- 17

 

 

RELATED TECTONIC BOUNDARIES>

WESTERN PACIFIC< EAST EURASIA>< INDO-AUSTRALIA

 NORTH AMERICA (W) >< EURASIA (E) ><PACIFIC ><INDO-AUS

NORTH AMERICA (W) >< EURASIA (E) ><PACIFIC

NORTH AMERICA/ incl. Microplates ><PACIFIC

AFRICA >< CARRIBEAN >< SOUTH AMERIA >< NASCA>< COCOS

EURASIA <> N-AMERICA/ EASTCARRIBEAN ><AFRICA

 N-AMERICA/WEST >< EURASIA >< ARABIA ><AFRICA

EURASIA><ARABIA ><INDO-AUSTRALIA

 associated to PROTON STORM (> 10 <100 pfu)

 

UTC TIME ZONES >

..

 ....

..

...

...

...

 ...

..

 ARRIVAL DATE: MAY- 15- 20 (CLUSTER)

 

LONGITUDES>

135° E- 90° E

135° E- 180°

180° - 135° W

90° W- 135° W

45° W- 90° W

45° W - 00° W

00° W- 45° E

45° E- 90° E

Nr. 23/13

 
     
               

 

  

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. Eventual Media reports will be posted in section "various reports"

< stats

 

This section therefor can only refer to changes in "ALERT LEVELS" as published by GVP. Click on the buttons (right) to find more detailled internal reports: volcano watch (global statistics) and regional volcano maps (all volcanoes worldwide and current activities)

maps >

  
volcano-discovery/gadget

note: this report does NOT necessarely represent all currently global active volcanoes!

      

 

report by:

GVP  

 

8 May-14 May 2013

New Activity/Unrest: | Cleveland, Chuginadak Island | Copahue, Central Chile-Argentina border | Dieng Volcanic Complex, Central Java (Indonesia) | Guntur, Western Java (Indonesia) | Mayon, Luzon | Pavlof, Alaska Peninsula | Popocatépetl, México | Tungurahua, Ecuador 
Ongoing Activity: | Kilauea, Hawaii (USA) | Kizimen, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) | Paluweh, Lesser Sunda Islands (Indonesia) | Reventador, Ecuador | Sabancaya, Perú | Sakura-jima, Kyushu | Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia) | Tolbachik, Central Kamchatka (Russia)

This page is updated on Wednesdays. Please see the GVP Home Page for news of the latest significant activity.

  
REGION:
NAME/USGS datalink:
GEOGRAPHIC POSITION: LAT. / LONG.
VOLCANO NUMBER
VOLCANO TYPE
 WEBCAM DATE AND UTC- TIME: ALERT LEVEL MAP: LOCAL SURVEY  
             
 

 

 

 

 

 

Wikipedia:

                  

 
             

2013

report by:

 GVP  

 

 
                             

 
                     

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
PREVIOUS DAYS EVENTS:

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

2013

MONTH:

MAY

 

DAY:

20

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 
- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

 REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 
      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

 Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS >  

 

 EPICENTER/ MAP TSUNAMI WARNINGS    
Note:, as earthquake data are oftenly revised the next day by EMSC,this section will mostly be completed later this day . ! click here for MEDIA report   ISSUED AT:   CANCELLED:  

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

 DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS > FOR REGIONS:  

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME >   LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

 

DEPTH >

 

 WAVE/HEIGHT   FREQUENCY  

 

 

                   note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!  
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

 FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0):

 
               
               
               

WATCHING: EXTRAORDINARY AND NEW EVENTS AND REGIONS:

NUMBER= ALL EVENTS AS LISTED BY EMSC OR USGS

numbered are events > M 2.0 with single events exceeding magnitude M 4.0.

  
               
               
LOW MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKES THOSE ARE RATHER SWARMS OR VOLCANIC TREMORS:    
               
               
GENERAL LIST OF OTHER MAIN EARTHQUAKE REGIONS as observed and monitored in this report: ( listed from longitude 180 ° E on WESTWARDS). Events: > M 2.0 < M 5.0

 
EARTHQUAKE REGIONS/ FROM 180° E ON WESTWARDS FREQUENCY/ SINCE REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS:  

KAMCHATKA PENINSULA/ KURIL ISLANDS / JAPAN

 FREQUENT

"B"

     N-AMERICA >< EURASIA >< PACIFIC><PHIL.  

PACIFIC/MAINLY WEST/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC.

 FREQUENT

"B"

     PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA  

REGION INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES/ INDIA

FREQUENT

"A"

     EURASIA >< / INDO AUSTRALIA  

ARABIC PLATE -SYRIA, IRAQ ETC. INCL. IRAN

 FREQUENT

"F"

     AFR><ARAB >< EUR><INDO-AUS  

AFRICA- MAINLY RED SEA REGION & INDIAN OCEAN

 SELDOM

"F"

     EURASIA>< AFRICA>< N-AMERICA ><ARABIA >< INDO-AUS >< ANTARCTICA  

EASTERN TURKEY / Near city of VAN

 PERMANENT

"F"

     ARABIA><EURASIA  

WESTERN TURKEY

 PERMANENT( higher since 2011)

"F"

     ARABIA>< EURASIA  

DODOCANESE ISLAND- N of SAMOS ISL:

JULY 2012

"F"

     EURASIA >< ARABIA >< AFRICA  

CONTINENTAL EURASIA INCLUDING ASIA

 SELDOM

"E"/"F

     EURASIA>< AFRICA >> ARABIA  

GERMANY / NEAR TO KOBLENZ ( EIFEL VOLCANIC FIELD)

 SELDOM

"E"

     EURASIA (volcanic) ^NOAA/ PTWC TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS ^internal: LATEST CME IMPACT MAP  

MEDITERRANEAN SEA REGION (ALL)

FREQUENT

"E"

     AFRICA >< EURASIA  

NORTHERN ITALY

 SINCE MAR 2012

"E"

     AFRICA >< EURASIA  

AFRICA AND ITS TECTONIC BOUNDARIES

 SELDOM

"E"

     EURASIA >< AFRICA>< AMERICA >< ANTARCTICA  

CANARY AND AZORES ISLANDS REGION

 NOVEMBER - 14-2012

"E"

     N-AMERICA >< AFRICA >< EURASIA  

REGION PERU- BOLIVIA

 FREQUENT

"D"

     PACIFIC >< SOUTH AMERICA >< NASZA  

REGION CHILE / ARGENTINE ( SA/ NASCA PLATE)

 FREQUENT/ OCT- 2012

"D"

     SOUTH AMERICA >< NASZA  

GULF OF MEXICO (GOM)/ MAINLY PUERTO RICO REGION

 VARYING

"D"

  

 

 CARIBBEAN><ATLANTIC >< AFRICA  

PANAMERICA

 FREQUENT SINCE 2012

"D"

     N & SOUTH AMERICA >< COCOS  

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

 AUGUST- 28- 2012

"C"

  

 

 SAN ANDREAS FAULT >< JUAN DE FUCA  

CANADA, ALASKA/ (CASCADIAN SZ)

 SOMETIMES

"C"

  

 

 NORTH-AMERICA ><EXPLORER PLATE  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

 *"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  

 

 
20130520/ 16:24 UTC   20130520/ 13:54 UTC 20130520/ 06:13 UTC 20130520/ 16:27 UTC 20130520/ 15:12 UTC    
  no image yet available  
 
 
 
 
STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) SoHO/ LASCO C 3 (3) STEREO-"Behind" (4) SDO /AIA-comp (5) SDO /AIA-comp (6) SDO /AIA-comp SoHO/ LASCO C 3      
   
                       

maps >

  

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 
         

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
SOURCES>> NASA/ GOES EUMETSAT METEOSAT (EUROPE)

NOAA/ Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Center

METEOALARM

 usno.navy.mil NOAA  
                     

VARIOUS REPORTS:_

                   
                           

HEADLINES: DEADLY TORNADO RIPPED THROUGH OKLAHOMA KILLING AT LEAST 80

          

20130521

report by:

usatoday.com  
 

20 children among the dead in Oklahoma

At least 51 people were killed, including at least 20 children, after a massive tornado roared through Oklahoma City on Monday afternoon, flattening entire neighborhoods and crushing two elementary schools packed with children.

President Obama declared a major disaster in Oklahoma late Monday as search-and-rescue efforts continued throughout the night. More than 120 people were being treated at hospitals, including about 50 children. Catastrophic damage was reported in Moore, which was flattened by another killer tornado that tracked the same path 14 years ago. Several children were pulled alive from the rubble of Plaza Towers Elementary, but some of their classmates were killed. About a mile away, the walls tumbled down at Briarwood Elementary. Miraculously, no one there died....read more...

    
                     
   

 
                   
   

 
               
 

 

 
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

113

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

350-426

FLARES >

C

11

 

CH UNN.

> 60° NORTH

 QUICKLY GROWING

MAY- 18- 2013

MAY- 24- 2013?

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

132.0

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 7.0

 

M

01

 

CH UNN.

> 60° SOUTH

 GROWING (LARGE)

MAY- 15- 2013

MAY- 20- 2013?

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

05

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

70- 120 nT

CME/ Protons

X

 

 

          

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

            

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

 NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

 SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS> NONE  
faded again(MAY 19)

11743

75° - 89° W

23 °  N

AXX

  

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

 T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

 UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 
 

11744

64 ° - 78° W

03 °  N

CAO/ CRO

  

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (EVOLUTION) :

 
 

11745

40 ° - 54° W

13 °  N

CAO

           ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>>

DECREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

  
 

11746

37 ° - 51° W

27 °  S

DSO/CSO

           LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130421

unclear

 < LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)  
 

11747

44 ° - 58° W

18 °  S

HRX/ CRO

  

 

 

 

   PREVIOUS MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130421

20130430 ( MAX)

 
 

11748

04 ° - 18° W

11 °  N

FAO/ DAI

 

      

 

        

 
rotated out >

11749

78 ° - 92° W

23 °  S

BXO

 

        

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

 red letters = currently most active region  
 

11750

69 ° - 83° W

11 °  S

DAI/CAI

 

      

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

 alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
faded (MAY 18)

11751

00 ° - 14° W

24 °  S

AXX

 

       *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
faded (MAY 19)

11752

50 ° - 64° W

17 °  N

CRO/ BXO

MAY- 17

              
NEWLY EMERGED

S2427

78° E

104° N

C 9.8 flareat 17:50 UTC

MAY- 26

 17:50 UTC LEO NONE        

NEWLY SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

04

 

         INTERPLANETARY. REMARKS    

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

           PROTON FLUX

HIGHTENED

 strong increase after X class activities on May 13/04 UTC- dropping again since MAY 17/ 16 UTC.  

 

  

 

^CME Nr.

       ELECTRON FLUX HIGHTENED

strong increase after X class activities on May 13/04 UTC- dropping again since MAY 17/ 16 UTC.

  

internal remarks:

 

 

        

 

 PROTON STORM ENDED DECREASING INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

 

  
                 

 

  

 
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

  

 

     2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 20/0525Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 May, 22 May, 23 May).

 

 
TODAY` S EARTH DIRECTED CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME):

this section will always appear, when a significant CME event was noticed and data have to be updated. You find more information about recent CME events in " today`s preliminary report"

  
- NONE YET-                  
   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

            

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130515- 21

int. CME Nr. >>

 CME cluster Nr 23 a-d / 13

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

 PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

 IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

 VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

ATLANTIC

 MULTIPLE CME CLUSTER LONGITUDES : 30° - 60°/120° W

 

ALERT LEVEL

* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

 
INCREASING ELECTRONS

SUDDEN (THUNDER- STORMS

ALASKA/ KAMCHATKA

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

EURASIA >< AFRICA ><S & N- AMERICA

 

 INCREASING ELECTRONS ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

 SECONDARY REGIONS : CENTERED AT: 33° S- 57° N SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

20. MAY 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

 NORTH AMERICA WEST

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

 LONGITUDES: 135°W- 45° E

 

M 5.5- 6.5 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (CME IMPACT)

 
INDUCED CURRENTS SOUTH AMERICA/ WEST

EURASIA >< AFRICA ><S & N & S AMERICA

 

21. MAY 2013

 
MINOR RADIO BLACKOUTS WESTERN PACIFIC LONGITUDES: 15°W- 180° W

 

M 5.5- 6.5 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (LATENCY)

 
WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) EURASIA EAST

PACIFIC ><EURASIA >< ARABIA >INDO-AUS

 

22. MAY 2013

 

ELECTRON STORM AFTER PROTON STORM

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS:

 

M 5.5- >6.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

 1-3 LATENCY(preliminary)

 

OTHER:

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION

GLOBAL *REGIONS> see definition below LONGITUDES : ALL

 

 LATENCIES:
 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES

 ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: LIKELY LOW!   EARTHQUAKES DELAYED BY > ACTIVE ELECTRONS PROTON INFLUENCE

 

TECTONICS

 COOLING DOWN AFTER PROTON/CME IMPACT COOLING DOWN (LATENCY/ ENDING) UNCERTAIN    

 

 EFFECTING AS > INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS (PROTONS)  
        * note: Due to the necessary evaluation of incoming data, NOAA space weasther alerts are oftenly BACKDATED!  

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment:

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

 ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

QUIET

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

UNSETTLED

FLARES

X RAY EVENT

NONE NONE

 

ACTIVE

 CME TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS: NONE NONE

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 RADIO BLACKOUT

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

 NONE NONE

 

MAJOR STORM

  

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

 G1 G1  

 

SOLAR STORMS:

SOLAR STORMS ARE INTENSIVE PARTICLE EMISSIONS

  

CME IMPACT

 > 0.8 MeV

ELECTRON STORM

< 1000 pfu.(CME DISTURBANCE )

< 1000 pfu.(CME DISTURBANCE )

    

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (PROT.)

> 2.0 MeV

ELECTRON STORM

< 100 pfu. (PROTON INFLUENCE)

< 100 pfu. (PROTON INFLUENCE)

 

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

    > 10 MeV PROTON STORM

>1.0 pfu decreasing

 >10 pfu S 1 .  

EFFECTIVE PROTONS

     Bz GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT POSITIVE (ACTIVE PROTONS) NEUTRAL NEGATIVE ( ACTIVE ELECTRONS  
   

P/E

NEUTRONS-SYNTHESIS < -09 > -10 rising < -10 > -11 dropping < significant changes only (no alerts)

 
                 

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

        

 

 PROTON STORM * compared to " normal" values INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 493 km/s at 19/2257Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 19/2256Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 20/1953Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 19/2255Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (21 May, 22 May) and unsettled to active levels on day three (23 May). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (21 May, 22 May, 23 May).

 
LAST DAYS MAJOR CME IMPACTS: ( final report to Nr 23 a-d /13)                
X CLASS EVENTS AND CME CLUSTER/ 20130513-17                  

ONGOING CME ARRIVALS CLUSTER!!)

CME/ Nr.:

23- a-d /13

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

 SEASONAL MAIN IMPACT LATITUDES:

60° N- 60° S

 STRENGTH: 2-3  

ARRIVAL DATE:

 AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENT

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

  

> 100 nT

 MAIN/ UTC POLARITY: REL. MASS VALUE MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  

20130515- 20

AR 11748

 87° - 24° E 11° N 4 X+ CLASS EVENTS/ CME CLUSTER MAY 13/04 UTC- MAY 17( 1:11 UTC CLUSTER after 09 UTC 140 nT* (   influenced by proton storm 15- 60° /120° W associated to longest proton storm measured in the last two years! HIGH* ATLANTIC/ KAMCHATKA  
REMARKS: STRRONG geomagnetic depression caused by > 10 pfu protopn storm( MAY 13- 21- dim.) lowered by proton influence!)   total impact: appr. 40 hours* 165° W- 15° E E   WESTERN AMERICA & PACIFIC / INDONESIA/ INDIAN OCEAN  
MULTIPLE CME EVENTS ( CLUSTERS) AND LATENCY EFFECTS:
t MULTIPLE CME CLUSTER ASSOCIATED TO PROTON STORM/ estimated IMPACT duration: APRIL 23- 25
  
CMEs/ APPROACHING:
CLUSTER
* (incalculable because of proton storm
LATENCIES >
EASTERN EURASIA
GLOBAL
  

 

 

 

 

 

        

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT:

 

EXPLANATIONS>

Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.

Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./

orange= medium impact

Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME. Colors from orange to light red mark GRADUAL IMPACTS OF MULTIPLE CMEs CLUSTERS.

 

HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST>

INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions!

STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS

The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER a LATENCY period due to CME IMPACT on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES within the RED until the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Read "latency remarks"

 

REGIONS

REGION "A"

REGION "B"(1)

REGION "B"(2)

REGION "C"

REGION" D"

REGION "E" (1)

REGION "E" (2)

REGION "F"

RELATED CME EVENT

 

REGIONS COVERED BY LATEST CME IMPACT>

 EASTERN EURASIA-- INDONESIA-WESTERN PACIFIC PHILIPPINES--AUSTRALIA WEST JAPAN/EAST- AUSTRALIA/ (EAST), PNG. NZL ALEUT./ KAMCHATKA- EASTERN PACIFIC/ HAWAII WESTERN USA+ WEST COAST- EASTERN PACIFIC- CANADA-ALASKA

GULF OF MEXICO/ PANAMERICA/CA./ CENTRAL USA/ SOUTH - AMERICA- WEST

, EASTERN ATLANTIC/ (CANARIES/ ICELAND)- N & S- AMERICA/ EAST CENTRAL (WEST) EUROPE/ AFRICA

INDIA & INDIAN OCEAN- CENTR: EURASIA, AFRICA (EAST), ARABIA ASIA MINOR

CME CLUSTER FROM AR 11748 MAY 13- 17

 

 

RELATED TECTONIC BOUNDARIES>

WESTERN PACIFIC< EAST EURASIA>< INDO-AUSTRALIA

 NORTH AMERICA (W) >< EURASIA (E) ><PACIFIC ><INDO-AUS

NORTH AMERICA (W) >< EURASIA (E) ><PACIFIC

NORTH AMERICA/ incl. Microplates ><PACIFIC

AFRICA >< CARRIBEAN >< SOUTH AMERIA >< NASCA>< COCOS

EURASIA <> N-AMERICA/ EASTCARRIBEAN ><AFRICA

 N-AMERICA/WEST >< EURASIA >< ARABIA ><AFRICA

EURASIA><ARABIA ><INDO-AUSTRALIA

 associated to PROTON STORM (> 10 <100 pfu)

 

UTC TIME ZONES >

..

 ....

..

...

...

...

 ...

..

 ARRIVAL DATE: MAY- 15- 20 (CLUSTER)

 

LONGITUDES>

135° E- 90° E

135° E- 180°

180° - 135° W

90° W- 135° W

45° W- 90° W

45° W - 00° W

00° W- 45° E

45° E- 90° E

Nr. 23/13

 

GENERAL REMARKS TO THE LONG TERM EFFECTS OF SOLAR PROTON EVENTS/ STORMS ( by: alien-homepage.de) : : Several strong earthquakes happen regularly immidiately during/ after Proton Storms (those themselves likely are also caused by kinds of solar quakes. Otherwise during that first phase, more exactly: DURING the proton storms when proton flux is elavated- as a typical antienergetic effect Protons have, everything that requires cinetic energies to work such as storms or volcanic activities are rather very low. Entire storms systems as statistics indicate seem to can come to a stillstand by such a proton impact. Other data show that protons can even swallow electrons ( memory charges) from harddiscs as more as if these ar plugged to the grid or connected to the web. and surely proton storms do interrupt all kinds of radio transmissions. After the proton storm itself has decreased regularly an electron storms sets in that last again for some days. During that time, all kind of cinetic effects set in: Mainly sudden thundestorms, and increasing volcano activities preferently those of hot spot volcanoes. Induced currents effecting down to the Earth surface with potential of heavy damage to power grids are seldom, but TYPICALLY OCCURE ESPECIALLY AFTER PROTON EVENTS when the proton and succeeding electron storms( impact reaches certain strength. This phase now last normally not more than 10 days until the affected tectonic plates would cool down again and contract, what leads to the second and final phase with the chance for another STRONG EARTHQUAKES. The described single phase are prolongued amplified or mindered WHEN NEW CME events occure , those might contain more protons or electrons. Its hardly then to forecast but current data show, that by the fact that protons shift the geomagnetic charge temporarely to positive values, that short circuit that lets flow solar energies right through the magnetic field lines (MPI MUnich) into the Earth core, the Earth can likely sum up and even store these energies for a long time ( by forming neutrons) what includes the risk of a concentrated energetic breakouts in different forms.

 
     

 

 

 

 

 

  

2013

MONTH:

MAY

 

DAY:

19

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 
- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

 REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 
      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

 Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS >  

 

 EPICENTER/ MAP TSUNAMI WARNINGS    
Note:, as earthquake data are oftenly revised the next day by EMSC,this section will mostly be completed later this day . ! click here for MEDIA report ISSUED AT:   CANCELLED:  

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

 DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS > FOR REGIONS:  

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 6.0 - OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA - 2013-05-19 18:44:10 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

52.30 N ; 160.20 E

DEPTH >

10 km

 WAVE/HEIGHT   FREQUENCY  

 

 

                   note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!  
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

WATCHING: EXTRAORDINARY AND NEW EVENTS AND REGIONS:

NUMBER= ALL EVENTS AS LISTED BY EMSC OR USGS

numbered are events > M 2.0 with single events exceeding magnitude M 4.0.

  

AFRICA AND ITS TECTONIC BOUNDARIES

 SELDOM

"E"

 MAP

01

 EURASIA >< AFRICA>< AMERICA >< ANTARCTICA M 5.1 - NORTHERN ALGERIA - 2013-05-19 09:07:28 UTC  

KAMCHATKA PENINSULA/ EARTHQUAKE SWARM

 MAY- 19- 2013

"B"

 MAP 25 (10x> M5) N-AMERICA >< EURASIA >< PACIFIC><PHIL. M 5.5 - OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA - 2013-05-19 22:40:25 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

 *"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  
   
                       

maps >

  

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 
         

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
SOURCES>> NASA/ GOES EUMETSAT METEOSAT (EUROPE)

NOAA/ Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Center

METEOALARM

 usno.navy.mil NOAA  
                     

VARIOUS REPORTS:_

                   
                           

TEXAS TORNADOS

           20130516

report by:

 nytimes.com  
 

<< A Tornado’s Mad Dash, and Then Ruins

Wayne McKethan, Granbury’s city manager, pointed at a bare slab surrounded by debris, all that was left Thursday after a tornado tore through the Rancho Brazos subdivision. It was one of at least 10 tornadoes that hit North Texas overnight, but this one killed at least six people and left 97 of the 110 houses and trailer homes in the neighborhood badly damaged or destroyed. Hunks of sheet metal had molded themselves around splintered trees and could be seen hanging from power lines, and the only question for some of the officials here is how anyone escaped alive....read more...

    
                     
   

 
                   
   

 
               
 

 

 
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

113

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

348-442

FLARES >

C

09

 

CH UNN.

> 60° NORTH

 QUICKLY GROWING

MAY- 18- 2013

MAY- 24- 2013?

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

135.3

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 5.8

 

M

 

 

CH UNN.

> 60° SOUTH

 GROWING (LARGE)

MAY- 15- 2013

MAY- 20- 2013?

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

10

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

49- 130 nT

CME arrival

X

 

 

          

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

            

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

 NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

 SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS> NONE  
faded (MAY 13)

11742

27° - 41° W

29 °  N

BXO

  

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

 T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

 UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 
reemerged (MAY 16)

11743

75° - 89° W

23 °  N

AXX

  

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (EVOLUTION) :

 
 

11744

51 ° - 65° W

03 °  N

DAO/ CRO

           ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>>

DECREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

  
 

11745

27 ° - 41° W

13 °  N

DAO/CAO

           LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130421

unclear

 < LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)  
 

11746

25 ° - 39° W

27 °  S

DSO/CSO

  

 

 

 

   PREVIOUS MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130421

20130430 ( MAX)

 
 

11747

33 ° - 47° W

18 °  S

CAO/ CRO

        

 

        

 
 

11748

10 ° E- 04° W

11 °  N

DAO

MAY- 19

        

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

 red letters = currently most active region  
rotating out >

11749

78 ° - 92° W

23 °  S

BXO

 

      

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

 alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
 

11750

54 ° - 68° W

11 °  S

DAO/DAI

 

       *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
faded (MAY 18)

11751

00 ° - 14° W

24 °  S

AXX

 

              
 

11752

50 ° - 64° W

17 °  N

CRO/ BXO

MAY- 17

              

NEWLY SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

03

 

         INTERPLANETARY. REMARKS    

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

           PROTON FLUX

HIGHTENED

 strong increase after X class activities on May 13/04 UTC- dropping again since MAY 17/ 16 UTC.  

 

  

 

^CME Nr.

       ELECTRON FLUX HIGHTENED

strong increase after X class activities on May 13/04 UTC- dropping again since MAY 17/ 16 UTC.

  

internal remarks:

 

 

        

 

 PROTON STORM ENDED DECREASING INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

 

  
                 

 

  

 
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

  

 

     2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 19/1750Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 May, 21 May, 22 May).

 

 
TODAY` S EARTH DIRECTED CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME):

this section will always appear, when a significant CME event was noticed and data have to be updated. You find more information about recent CME events in " today`s preliminary report"

  
- NONE YET-                  
   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

            

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130423- 25/ May 06

int. CME Nr. >>

 21/13 minor update: 22/13

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

 PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

 IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

 VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

CENTRAL AMERICA

 MULTIPLE CME CLUSTER LONGITUDES : 90° - 105° W

 

ALERT LEVEL

* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

 
ACTIVE PROTONS

SUDDEN (THUNDER- STORMS

CALIFORNIA

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

EURASIA><AFRICA ><CARIBB. ><AMERICAS >< COCOS

 

 PROTON STORM ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

 SECONDARY REGIONS : CENTERED AT: 33° S- 57° N SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

19. MAY 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

 WESTERN EUROPE & AFRICA

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

 LONGITUDES: 15°W- 180° W

 

M 5.5- 6.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (LATENCY)

 
INDUCED CURRENTS ATLANTIC WEST

EURASIA >< AFRICA ><S & N- AMERICA

 

20. MAY 2013

 
MINOR RADIO BLACKOUTS ALL AMERICAS LONGITUDES: 15°W- 180° W

 

M 5.5- 6.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (LATENCY)

 
WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) PACIFIC

EURASIA >< AFRICA ><S & N- AMERICA

 

21. MAY 2013

 

ELECTRON STORM AFTER PROTON STORM

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS:

 

M 5.5- >6.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

 1-3 LATENCY(preliminary)

 

OTHER:

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION

GLOBAL *REGIONS> see definition below LONGITUDES : ALL

 

 LATENCIES:
 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES

 ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: LIKELY LOW!   EARTHQUAKES DELAYED BY > ACTIVE ELECTRONS PROTON INFLUENCE

 

TECTONICS

 COOLING DOWN AFTER PROTON/CME IMPACT COOLING DOWN (LATENCY/ ENDING) UNCERTAIN    

 

 EFFECTING AS > INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS (PROTONS)  
        * note: Due to the necessary evaluation of incoming data, NOAA space weasther alerts are oftenly BACKDATED!  

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

introgeomagnetic PROTON FLUX

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

 ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

QUIET

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

UNSETTLED

FLARES

X RAY EVENT

NONE NONE

 

ACTIVE

 CME TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS: NONE NONE

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 RADIO BLACKOUT

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

 NONE NONE

 

MAJOR STORM

  

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

 G1? G1  

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (PROT.)

SOLAR STORMS:

SOLAR STORMS ARE INTENSIVE PARTICLE EMISSIONS

  

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

> 0.8 MeV

ELECTRON STORM

< 1000 pfu.(CME DISTURBANCE )

< 1000 pfu.( PROTON INFLUENCE )

    

EFFECTIVE PROTONS

> 2.0 MeV

ELECTRON STORM

< 100 pfu. (PROTON INFLUENCE)

+/- 100 pfu. (PROTON INFLUENCE)

 

CME IMPACT (STRONG!)

     > 10 MeV PROTON STORM

>10 pfu S 1

 >10 pfu S 1 .  
    Bz GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT POSITIVE ( ACTIVE PROTONS) NEUTRAL NEGATIVE ( ACTIVE ELECTRONS  

internal remarks:

   

P/E

NEUTRONS-SYNTHESIS < -10 > -11 dropping < -9 > -10 dropping < significant changes only (no alerts)

 
                 

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

        

 

 PROTON STORM * compared to " normal" values INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 446 km/s at 19/0021Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 18/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 18/2258Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7 pfu at 18/2130Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (20 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (21 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (22 May). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (20 May, 21 May, 22 May).

 
     

 

 

 

 

 

  

2013

MONTH:

MAY

 

DAY:

18

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 
- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

 REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 
      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

 Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS >  

 

 EPICENTER/ MAP TSUNAMI WARNINGS    
Note:, as earthquake data are oftenly revised the next day by EMSC,this section will mostly be completed later this day . ! click here for MEDIA report ISSUED AT:   CANCELLED:  

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

 DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY> 2 REPORTS > FOR REGIONS:  

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 6.0 - NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN - 2013-05-18 05:48:01 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

37.79 N ; 141.51 E

DEPTH >

52 km

 WAVE/HEIGHT   FREQUENCY  

 

 

                   note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!  
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

 FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0):

 

KAMCHATKA PENINSULA/ KURIL ISLANDS / JAPAN

 LIKELY VOLCANIC!

"B"

 MAP

03

 N-AMERICA >< EURASIA >< PACIFIC><PHIL. M 5.0 - NEAR EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA - 2013-05-18 22:39:47 UTC  

PACIFIC/MAINLY WEST/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC.

 LIKELY VOLCANIC!

"B"

 MAP

01

 PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.0 - KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION - 2013-05-18 17:19:29 UT  

WATCHING: EXTRAORDINARY AND NEW EVENTS AND REGIONS:

NUMBER= ALL EVENTS > M3 AS LISTED BY EMSC OR USGS

numbered are events > M 2.0 with single events exceeding magnitude M 4.0.

  

AFRICA AND ITS TECTONIC BOUNDARIES

 SELDOM

"E"

 MAP

01

 EURASIA >< AFRICA>< AMERICA >< ANTARCTICA M 5.7 - SOUTH OF AFRICA - 2013-05-18 04:05:44 UTC  

ARABIC PLATE -AFTERQUAKES / SERIAL QUAKE - SOUTHERN IRAN

 CONTINUED

"F"

 MAP

09

 AFR><ARAB >< EUR><INDO-AUS M 5.6 - SOUTHERN IRAN - 2013-05-18 10:03:19 UTC  

REGION OF CALIFORNIA SAN ANDREAS FAULT (USGS)

 FREQUENT

"C"

 MAP

02

 SAN ANDREAS FAULT >< JUAN DE FUCA M 4.3 - OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA - 2013-05-18 13:46:07 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

 *"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  
STEREO-"BEHIND" (2) SoHO/ LASCO C 3 (3) STEREO-"Behind" SDO /AIA-comp SDO /AIA-comp SoHO/ LASCO C 3 SoHO/ LASCO C 3      
   
                       

maps >

  

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 
         

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
SOURCES>> NASA/ GOES EUMETSAT METEOSAT (EUROPE)

NOAA/ Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Center

METEOALARM

 usno.navy.mil NOAA  
                     
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

146

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

358-459

FLARES >

C

06

 

CH UNN.

> 60° SOUTH

 GROWING

MAY- 15- 2013

MAY- 20- 2013?

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

132.1

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

B 4.8

 

M

 

 

          

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

17

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

35- 115 nT

 

X

 

 

          

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

            

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

 NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

 SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS> NONE  
faded (MAY 13)

11742

27° - 41° W

29 °  N

BXO

  

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

 T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

 UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 
reemerged (MAY 16)

11743

53° - 67° W

23 °  N

DAO/ CRO

  

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (EVOLUTION) :

 
 

11744

38 ° - 52° W

03 °  N

DAO/ DAI

           ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>>

DECREASING

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

  
 

11745

12 ° - 26° W

13 °  N

CKO/ DAO

           LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130421

unclear

 < LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)  
 

11746

12 ° - 26° W

27 °  S

CSO/

  

 

 

 

   PREVIOUS MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130421

20130430 ( MAX)

 
 

11747

16 ° - 30° W

18 °  S

DAO/ DRO

        

 

        

 
 

11748

25 ° - 11° E

11 °  N

DAI/DAO

MAY- 19

        

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

 red letters = currently most active region  
 

11749

64 ° - 78° W

23 °  S

CRO/ BXO

 

      

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

 alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
 

11750

41 ° - 55° W

11 °  S

CAO/DAI

 

       *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
 

11751

00 ° - 14° W

24 °  S

AXX

 

              
 

11752

37 ° - 51° W

17 °  N

CRO/DRO

MAY- 17

              

NEWLY SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

03

 

         INTERPLANETARY. REMARKS    

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

           PROTON FLUX

HIGHTENED

 A strong increase in all proton spectrum followed after 04 UTC strong X class activities on May 13.  

 

  

 

^CME Nr.

       ELECTRON FLUX HIGHTENED

LATEST:INCREASE ON MAY 13- 2013 after 12 UTC/ MAY15/ 10 UTCdue to strong flare activity

  

internal remarks:

 

 

        

 

 PROTON STORM ENDED DECREASING INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

 

  
                 

 

  

 
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

  

 

     2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 18/0345Z from Region 1748 (N12E11). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 May, 20 May, 21 May).

 

 
TODAY` S EARTH DIRECTED CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME):

this section will always appear, when a significant CME event was noticed and data have to be updated. You find more information about recent CME events in " today`s preliminary report"

  
- NONE YET-                  
   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

            

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130423- 25/ May 06

int. CME Nr. >>

 21/13 minor update: 22/13

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

 PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

 IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

 VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

CENTRAL AMERICA

 MULTIPLE CME CLUSTER LONGITUDES : 90° - 105° W

 

ALERT LEVEL

* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

 
CME IMPACT!

SUDDEN (THUNDER- STORMS

CALIFORNIA

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

EURASIA><AFRICA ><CARIBB. ><AMERICAS >< COCOS

 

 PROTON STORM & CME IMPACT ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

 SECONDARY REGIONS : CENTERED AT: 33° S- 57° N SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

18. MAY 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

 WESTERN EUROPE & AFRICA

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

 LONGITUDES: 15°W- 180° W

 

M 5.5- >6.5 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 ( EFFECTIVE PROTONS)

 

INDUCED CURRENTS

 ATLANTIC WEST

EURASIA >< AFRICA ><S & N- AMERICA

 

18. MAY 2013

 

MINOR RADIO BLACKOUTS

ALL AMERICAS LONGITUDES: 15°W- 180° W

 

M 5.5- 6.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 (LATENCY)

 
WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) PACIFIC

EURASIA >< AFRICA ><S & N- AMERICA

 

20. MAY 2013

 

ELECTRON STORM AFTER PROTON STORM

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS:

 

M 5.5- >6.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

 1-3 LATENCY(preliminary)

 

OTHER:

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION

GLOBAL *REGIONS> see definition below LONGITUDES : ALL

 

 LATENCIES:
 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES

 ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: HIGHER   EARTHQUAKES DELAYED BY > ACTIVE ELECTRONS PROTON INFLUENCE

 

TECTONICS

 COOLING DOWN AFTER PROTON/CME IMPACT COOLING DOWN (LATENCY/ ENDING) UNCERTAIN    

 

 EFFECTING AS > INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS (PROTONS)  
        * note: Due to the necessary evaluation of incoming data, NOAA space weasther alerts are oftenly BACKDATED!  

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

introgeomagnetic PROTON FLUX

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

 ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

QUIET

ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

UNSETTLED

FLARES

X RAY EVENT

NONE  

 

ACTIVE

 CME TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS: NONE  

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 RADIO BLACKOUT

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

 NONE  

 

MAJOR STORM

  

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

 G1 WARNING (G1- G2 EXPECTED)  

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (PROT.)

SOLAR STORMS:

SOLAR STORMS ARE INTENSIVE PARTICLE EMISSIONS

  

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

> 0.8 MeV

ELECTRON STORM

< 1000 pfu.(CME DISTURBANCE )

< 10.000 pfu.( PROTON INFLUENCE )

    

EFFECTIVE PROTONS

> 2.0 MeV

ELECTRON STORM

+/- 100 pfu. (PROTON INFLUENCE)

> 100 pfu. (PROTON INFLUENCE)

 

CME IMPACT (STRONG!)

     > 10 MeV PROTON STORM

>10 pfu S 1

 >10 pfu S 1 .  
    Bz GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT POSITIVE ( ACTIVE PROTONS) NEUTRAL NEGATIVE ( ACTIVE ELECTRONS  

internal remarks:

   

P/E

NEUTRONS-SYNTHESIS < -9 > -10 dropping < -8 > -9 dropping < significant changes only (no alerts)

 
                 

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

        

 

 PROTON STORM * compared to " normal" values INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 476 km/s at 18/0911Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 18/0244Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 18/0146Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 32 pfu at 17/2245Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 131 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (19 May), quiet to active levels on day two (20 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 May). Protons are likely to cross threshold on day one (19 May) and have a chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (20 May, 21 May).

 
     

 

 

 

 

 

  

2013

MONTH:

MAY

 

DAY:

17

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 
- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

 REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 
      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

 Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS >  

 

 EPICENTER/ MAP TSUNAMI WARNINGS    
Note:, as earthquake data are oftenly revised the next day by EMSC,this section will mostly be completed later this day . ! click here for MEDIA report ISSUED AT:   CANCELLED:  

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

 DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS > FOR REGIONS:  

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.7 - SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS - 2013-05-17 06:43:16 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

11.06 S ; 165.06 E

DEPTH >

 

 WAVE/HEIGHT   FREQUENCY  

 

 

                   note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

 *"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  
   
                       

maps >

  

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >

< statistics

 
         

TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
SOURCES>> NASA/ GOES EUMETSAT METEOSAT (EUROPE)

NOAA/ Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Center

METEOALARM

 usno.navy.mil NOAA  

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

appr. GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

 DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

  
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Alvin MAY-13- 2013 EASTERN PACIFIC

40MPH (+)

110.8° W

9.8° N

 600 KM SOUTHWEST OFF GUADALAJARA/ MEXICO WNW TD    
                     

VARIOUS REPORTS:_

                   
                           

ENVIRONMENTAL HEADLINES/ MAY 15- 18- 2013

          

20130516

report by:

 bbc.co.uk  

(nbc) Drought, cold cripple wheat crop

The winter wheat crop is expected to be far smaller this season compared to last, particularly for hard red varieties used in bread, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported Friday. ..The government's forecast comes amid a season marked by drought and late spring freezes in the Midwest's major wheat growing areas, particularly in Kansas — the nation's biggest wheat-producing state.

(Chron.com/ 20130516): Fire burns 3,800 acres in Calif. national forest

FRAZIER PARK, Calif. (AP) — Cooler temperatures and lighter winds gave hundreds of firefighters a breather from a wildfire that has blackened hills near Interstate 5 north of Los Angeles. The fire that broke out Wednesday in the Los Padres National Forest charred 3,800 acres of dry, thick trees in torrid conditions.

(australia network.com/)UNICEF provides drought aid to Marshall Islands

The UN children's fund UNICEF has joined the Marshallese Government in providing emergency assistance to the nation's severely drought-affected areas. More than 5,000 people in the north of Marshall Islands have limited access to clean and safe drinking water, proper sanitation and nutritious food. The emergency response is focusing attention on health and hygiene with reports of an increase in diarrhoea and other infections among children.

 

(ap) More Rain Forecast After Deadly Storms Hit China

Chinese authorities say rainstorms that battered southern China this week have killed 33 people and left 12 people missing. The Chinese Ministry of Civil Affairs website says at least nine provinces have had storms and some flooding and landslides since Tuesday. It says Guangdong province has been hit the hardest with 19 deaths and 11 missing people.

minivan - news/ 20130515)Extreme weather compels emergency relief from Maldives’ government

Maldivian government authorities are providing emergency services and relief funds to island communities battered by three weeks of “extreme weather”. The National Disaster Management Centre (NDMC) issued a statement today (May 15) urging island and atoll councils to report any damage caused by the “harsh weather” as soon as possible.

Nasa's Kepler telescope hobbled by faulty wheel

The planet-hunting space telescope Kepler has been hobbled by a broken wheel, say scientists at Nasa. Two of four reaction wheels are now faulty. At least three are needed to orient the telescope correctly. "I wouldn't call Kepler down and out just yet," said Nasa administrator John Grunsfeld, saying scientists were working on the problem. Kepler was launched in 2009 and last month identified two distant planets that Nasa said could be habitable. So far, the $600m (£395m) mission has identified 132 "exoplanets" outside our solar system, and another 2,700 possible candidates.

But last July one of the spacecraft's four reaction wheels broke down, leaving scientists aware that a further failure was likely and would prevent the telescope operating as it should....read. more...

  
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

198

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

346-476

FLARES >

C

02

 

CH UNN.

NORTH

FADED

MAY- 14- 2013

MAY- 16- 2013?

 

 

SOLAR FLUX

136.4

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

 

 

M

01

 

CH 570

CENTRAL

FADED

MAY- 13- 2013

MAY- 14- 2013

 

 

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

07

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

 

 

X

 

 

CH UNN.

> 60° SOUTH

 GROWING

MAY- 15- 2013

MAY- 20- 2013?

 

 

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS TODAY (as observed at 00:00 UTC):

CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

 

            

 

STATUS

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

ACTIVITIES/ CONF.*

appr. EARTH FACING ON:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

 

 NORTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP CH- EXT) JAN/ 14 FADED

 

 

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

 

 SOUTHERN POLAR CH EXTENSION (SP - CH- EXT) MARCH- 06 FADING

 
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS> NONE  
faded (MAY 13)

11742

27° - 41° W

29 °  N

BXO

  

 

 

 

 

RECURR.= RECURRENT

 T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL

ext= extended

 UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH

 
reemerged (MAY 16)

11743

40 ° - 64° W

23 °  N

CSO/ ESO

  

 

 

 

 

OBSERVED OVERALL SOLAR SURFACE ACTIVITY (EVOLUTION) :

 
 

11744

24 ° - 38° W

03 °  N

CAO/ DAI

           ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY>>

VERY HIGH

X-RAY/ SOLAR ERUPTIONS

  
 

11745

01 ° E- 13° W

13 °  N

CKI/ CKO

MAY- 17

         LAST MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130421

unclear

 < LAST MAXIMUM (appr.)  
 

11746

01 ° E- 13° W

27 °  S

CSO/

MAY 17

 

 

 

   PREVIOUS MINIMUM (appr.)>

20130421

20130430 ( MAX)

 
 

11747

04 ° - 18° W

18 °  S

CAO/ DSO

MAY- 16

      

 

        

 
M3.2 solar flare & CME

11748

38 ° - 24° E

11 °  N

DKI/ DAI

MAY- 19

 08:57 LIBRA MAY- 19-20  

abbreviations and markups ( solar section left):

 red letters = currently most active region  
 

11749

51 ° - 65° W

23 °  S

BXO/ DRO

 

      

abbreviations: ( example.: Hax, CDO, BXO, etc. ) = Sun spot class

 alpha , beta gamma, delta = Sun spot type**
 

11750

26 ° - 40° W

11 °  S

BXO/ DRO

 

       *==according to Zurich sun spot classification **sun spot types (Mt. Wilson
 

11751

13 ° E- 01° W

24 °  S

BXO

MAY- 17

              
NEWLY EMERGED

11752

25 ° - 39° W

17 °  N

CRO/ DRI

MAY- 17

              

NEWLY SPOTTED REGIONS (S)

03

 

         INTERPLANETARY. REMARKS    

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

           PROTON FLUX

HIGHTENED

 A strong increase in all proton spectrum followed after 04 UTC strong X class activities on May 13.  

 

  

 

^CME Nr.

       ELECTRON FLUX HIGHTENED

LATEST:INCREASE ON MAY 13- 2013 after 12 UTC/ MAY15/ 10 UTCdue to strong flare activity

  

internal remarks:

 

 

        

 

 PROTON STORM ENDED DECREASING INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

 

  
                 

 

  

 
USAF/NOAA Report on solar activity:    

 

  

 

     2013 NOAA/ RSGA

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 17/0857Z from Region 1748 (N12E23). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 May, 19 May, 20 May).

 

 
 

 

 
TODAY` S EARTH DIRECTED CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME):

this section will always appear, when a significant CME event was noticed and data have to be updated. You find more information about recent CME events in " today`s preliminary report"

  
- NONE YET-                  

20130517

 CMEs at:

08:57 UTC

 ARRIVAL:

MAY19-20

 POLARITY: ALPHA BETA UNKNOWN  

GOES/ GEOMAG. PROTON FLUX

 GOES / X- RAY (nuclear activity/ solar flares)  

TRACKING NR.:

23 d/13

 20130517/ 11:09 UTC 20130517/ 09:13 UTC   20130517/ 11:09 UTC  

 

ACTIVE REGION:

11748

  

 

Earth directed?

FULLY HALO  

 

SUN COORDINATES:

  

 

38 ° - 24° E

11 °  N

  

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

  

 

impulsive flare/ LDE

 M 3.2  
PROTON EMISSION/ STORM! (1) STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) SDO /AIA-comp (3) SDO /AIA-comp

(4) SoHO/ LASCO C 3

  

 
TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << RADIO BLACKOUT WARNINGS  

Abbreviations

LDE=

Long Duration Event

 

try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 
TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION EVENT REPORTS:    

2013

alien-homepage.de

 
10 cm RADIO BURST                        
   

- 3 - TERRESTRIAL

(INTERNAL RESEARCH PROJECT) : CMEs and RELATED TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS

 

 

NOTES: (In case of CME CLUSTERS). This forecast respects previous CME impacts but regards the latest CME arrival as dominant. Also note, that earthquake estimations made in this report are without warranty and are (intentedly) rather OVER EXAGGERATED . Real values might be up to 1 magnitude below!

 

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

            

 

LAST FORECAST RELATED CME ARRIVAL>>

20130423- 25/ May 06

int. CME Nr. >>

 21/13 minor update: 22/13

EXPERIMENTAL VOLCANO AND EARTHQUAKE FORECAST:

 

TODAY`S EXPECTABLE IMMIDIATE CME EFFECTS:

 PRIMARY REGIONS

CME STRENGTH:

 IMPACT LONGITUDES & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

 

ORANGE BACKGROUND =INTERN. "WATCH" ALERT= LARGER EVENTS  WiTH THE ESTIMATED  MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTABLE WITH LATENCIES, BUT CURRENTLY / TODAY RATHER INLIKELY-

 

ALERT LEVEL

 VOLCANO ACTIVITIES / TREMORS

CENTRAL AMERICA

 MULTIPLE CME CLUSTER LONGITUDES : 90° - 105° W

 

ALERT LEVEL

* note: estimated magnitudes are intendedly OVERESTIMATED ( +/- 1 M) . M 5.5- 6.0 is the default setting if no stronger or destructive Earthquakes are expectable

 
NEW PROTON STORM

SUDDEN (THUNDER- STORMS

CALIFORNIA

MAIN HEMISPHERE:

EURASIA><AFRICA ><CARIBB. ><AMERICAS >< COCOS

 

 NEW PROTON STORM ESTIMATED MAX. MAGNITUDES ESTIMATED INTENSITY ( 1-3)

 

SUDDEN (GLACIAL) MELTDOWNS

 SECONDARY REGIONS : CENTERED AT: 33° S- 57° N SECONDARY REGIONS :

 

17. MAY 2013

 

METHANHYDRATE RELEASES

 WESTERN EUROPE & AFRICA

These forecasts are based on CME and solar wind impact data and the related charge of the geomagnetic field as measured by ACE and GOEShp

 LONGITUDES: 15°W- 180° W

 

M 5.5- >6.5 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 ( EFFECTIVE PROTONS)

 

INDUCED CURRENTS

 ATLANTIC WEST

EURASIA >< AFRICA ><S & N- AMERICA

 

18. MAY 2013

 

MINOR RADIO BLACKOUTS

ALL AMERICAS LONGITUDES: 15°W- 180° W

 

M 5.5- >6.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

1-3 ( POSSIBLE DURING CME IMPACT!))

 
WHALE/ DOLPHIN BEACHINGS (MAG) PACIFIC

EURASIA >< AFRICA ><S & N- AMERICA

 

18. MAY 2013

 

ELECTRON STORM AFTER PROTON STORM

LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS LOWER AFFECTED REGIONS:

 

M 5.5- >6.0 ( POTENTIAL= > M 9.0)

 1-3 CME impact (preliminary)

 

OTHER:

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION

GLOBAL *REGIONS> see definition below LONGITUDES : ALL

 

 LATENCIES:
 

LATE EFFECTS

EARTHQUAKES

 ESTIMATED DESTRUCTIVE  EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITY: HIGHER   EARTHQUAKES DELAYED BY > ACTIVE ELECTRONS PROTON INFLUENCE

 

TECTONICS

 COOLING DOWN AFTER PROTON/CME IMPACT COOLING DOWN (LATENCY/ ENDING) UNCERTAIN    

 

 EFFECTING AS > INCREASED VOLCANISM- STORMS, EARTHQUAKES: LOW  PARADOX ANTIENERGETIC EFFECTS (PROTONS)  
        * note: Due to the necessary evaluation of incoming data, NOAA space weasther alerts are oftenly BACKDATED!  

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

introgeomagnetic PROTON FLUX

ALERTS

NOAA/ CURRENT SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION:(oftenly backdated!)

 ABOUT SPACE WEATHER CODES

 

QUIET

NOAA ALERTS:

SOLAR INFLUENCES

CURRENT

PAST 24 h

REGULARLY UPDATES ISSUED BY NOAA

 

UNSETTLED

FLARES

X RAY EVENT

NONE NONE

 

ACTIVE

 CME TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS: NONE NONE

 

MINOR STORM (CME)

 RADIO BLACKOUT

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

 0848 UTC NONE

 

MAJOR STORM

  

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

 WARNING (G1- G2 EXPECTED) WARNING (G1- G2 EXPECTED)  

GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION (PROT.)

  

SOLAR STORMS:

SOLAR STORMS ARE INTENSIVE PARTICLE EMISSIONS

  

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

 

> 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS

+/- 10.000 pfu.( PROTON INFLUENCE )

< 10.000 pfu.( PROTON INFLUENCE )

    

EFFECTIVE PROTONS

 

2 MeV ELECTRONS

+/- 100 pfu. (PROTON INFLUENCE)

> 100 pfu. (PROTON INFLUENCE)

 

CME IMPACT

      >10 MeV PROTONS

>10 pfu S 1

 >10 pfu S 1 .  
      GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT POSITIVE ( ACTIVE PROTONS) NEUTRAL NEGATIVE ( ACTIVE ELECTRONS  

internal remarks:

   

 

 NEUTRONS- P/E SYNTHESIS < -8 > -9 dropping < -7 > -8 dropping < significant changes only (no alerts)

 
                 

GENERAL REMARKS TO THE LONG TERM EFFECTS OF SOLAR PROTON EVENTS/ STORMS ( by: alien-homepage.de) : : Several strong earthquakes happen regularly immidiately during/ after Proton Storms (those themselves likely are also caused by kinds of solar quakes. Otherwise during that first phase, more exactly: DURING the proton storms when proton flux is elavated- as a typical antienergetic effect Protons have, everything that requires cinetic energies to work such as storms or volcanic activities are rather very low. Entire storms systems as statistics indicate seem to can come to a stillstand by such a proton impact. Other data show that protons can even swallow electrons ( memory charges) from harddiscs as more as if these ar plugged to the grid or connected to the web. and surely proton storms do interrupt all kinds of radio transmissions. After the proton storm itself has decreased regularly an electron storms sets in that last again for some days. During that time, all kind of cinetic effects set in: Mainly sudden thundestorms, and increasing volcano activities preferently those of hot spot volcanoes. Induced currents effecting down to the Earth surface with potential of heavy damage to power grids are seldom, but TYPICALLY OCCURE ESPECIALLY AFTER PROTON EVENTS when the proton and succeeding electron storms( impact reaches certain strength. This phase now last normally not more than 10 days until the affected tectonic plates would cool down again and contract, what leads to the second and final phase with the chance for another STRONG EARTHQUAKES. The described single phase are prolongued amplified or mindered WHEN NEW CME events occure , those might contain more protons or electrons. Its hardly then to forecast but current data show, that by the fact that protons shift the geomagnetic charge temporarely to positive values, that short circuit that lets flow solar energies right through the magnetic field lines (MPI MUnich) into the Earth core, the Earth can likely sum up and even store these energies for a long time ( by forming neutrons) what includes the risk of a concentrated energetic breakouts in different forms.

 

Today`s USAF report on geophysical activity >>

 

        

 

 PROTON STORM * compared to " normal" values INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 431 km/s at 17/0120Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 17/1927Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 16/2126Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 41 pfu at 17/1720Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 203 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 May), quiet to major storm levels on day two (19 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (20 May). Protons are expected to continue above threshold levels on days 1-3 (18-20 May).

 
     

 

 

 

 

 

  

2013

MONTH:

MAY

 

DAY:

16

 

EXPERIMENTAL STATISTICAL EARTHQUAKE FORECAST BY:

alien-homepage

 

 

this day`s update is under procedure.-...

click on images to enlarge them/ try to reload/refresh the page, if images should not be displayed!

 
- 1 - ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG

TODAY`s EVENTS

 REPORTS , DATA, IMAGES, VIDEOS ETC MAY BE ADDED AT ANY TIME, RESP WHEN RECEIVED

 
      RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

 

GLOBAL WATCH: EARTHQUAKES- AFTERQUAKES & SWARMS

 Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC NOAA TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS >  

 

 EPICENTER/ MAP TSUNAMI WARNINGS    
Note:, as earthquake data are oftenly revised the next day by EMSC,this section will mostly be completed later this day . ! click here for MEDIA report ISSUED AT:   CANCELLED:  

 

highest global measured Earthquake magnitude:

GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0

 DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>   REPORTS > FOR REGIONS:  

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME > M 5.7 - SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE - 2013-05-16 05:57:01 UTC LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >

57.64 S ; 6.90 W

DEPTH >

9 km

 WAVE/HEIGHT   FREQUENCY  

 

 

                   note: Tsunami alert here might mostly not be up to date! check out NOAA website!  
listed in this section: Earthquake activities with single Earthquakes exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0- the number represents all  related regional measured quakes above M 2.0. MAINLAND EURASIAN QUAKES are listed from 1 magnitude below on.  
NOTE. Earthquake data were first collected on a more sensible scale ( first : above M 3.0, then above M 4.0) as evidence/ to prove coincidences with solar events . From FEBRUARY 22 on, only events will be listed here exceeding magnitudes of M 5.0!  

TODAY`S MAIN EARTHQUAKES AND REGIONS :

 FREQUENCY/ SINCE: REGION* EPICENTER: NUMBER TECTONICS & PLATE BOUNDARIES:

HIGHEST MAGNITUDE MEASURED IN THIS REGION TODAY (> M 5.0):

 

PACIFIC/MAINLY WEST/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC.

 FREQUENT

"B"

 MAP

02

 PACIFIC >< INDO AUSTRALIA M 5.3 - SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION - 2013-05-16 22:38:21 UTC  

WATCHING: EXTRAORDINARY AND NEW EVENTS AND REGIONS:

NUMBER= ALL EVENTS AS LISTED BY EMSC OR USGS

numbered are events > M 2.0 with single events exceeding magnitude M 4.0.

  

GULF OF MEXICO (GOM)/ MAINLY PUERTO RICO REGION

20130516

"D"

 MAP

01

 CARIBBEAN><ATLANTIC >< AFRICA M 5.0 - CARIBBEAN SEA - 2013-05-16 16:29:14 UTC  

REGION CHILE / ARGENTINE ( SA/ NASCA PLATE)

 FREQUENT/ OCT- 2012

"D"

 MAP

01

 SOUTH AMERICA >< NASZA M 5.0 - WEST CHILE RISE - 2013-05-16 23:13:28 UTC  

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

 *"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report ^ Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of CA ^ TECTONIC PLATES (Wikipedia)  

 

 
               
             
 
 
 
 
STEREO-"BEHIND" (2) SoHO/ LASCO C 3 (3) STEREO-"Behind" SDO /AIA-comp SDO /AIA-comp SoHO/ LASCO C 3 SoHO/ LASCO C 3      
   
                       

maps >

  

NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES>

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TODAY`S s TROPICAL STORMS

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
SOURCES>> NASA/ GOES EUMETSAT METEOSAT (EUROPE)

NOAA/ Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Center

METEOALARM

 usno.navy.mil NOAA  

REPORT BY:

NAME/ TRACKING LINK

EMERGED ON:

REGION

WIND SPEED

COORDINATES

appr. GEOGRAPHIC POSITION/ /REMARKS

 DIRECTION STORM CATHEGORY

MEDIA REPORTS

  
wunderground.com Tropical Storm Alvin MAY-13- 2013 EASTERN PACIFIC

45MPH (+)

105.9° W

9.0° N

 600 KM SOUTHWEST OFF THE COAST OF S- MEXICO WNW TD    
wunderground.com Tropical Cyclone Mahasen MAY- 10- 2013 INDIAN OCEAN

55 MPH (+)

89.9° E

20.5 ° N

100 km South OFFSHORE of BANGLADESH/ MYANMAR BORDER REGION lANDFALL!

WNW

TS

    
                     

VARIOUS REPORTS:_

                   
                           
        20130516

report by:

edition.cnn.com      

Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

 

North Texas picks up the pieces after tornadoes kill 6

(CNN) -- Chainsaws wailed Thursday in Granbury, Texas, as some residents began to clear fallen trees and whittle down the mounds of household goods strewn across the landscape, a testament to the ferocity of the previous night's tornadoes. But other residents, those from the hardest-hit neighborhoods, had to wait, hoping to hear when they could go back to their damaged and leveled homes to see what remains. Ronna Cotten said she has been told she can't re-enter her subdivision to "check to see if we have any belongings left" for at least two days, maybe as many as seven.

Power is expected to be down for the next three weeks, Cotten said she was told. Cotten stayed in the home of a woman who picked her up from the rescue center Wednesday night and worked the phones Thursday trying to find hotel rooms for her family. She still considers herself fortunate.read more...

    
               
- 2- SOLAR ACTIVITIES

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

solar data by: solen.info

 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

NUMBER

POSITION*:

STATUS:

FIRST OBSERVED:

EARTH FACING

MAG &remarks