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DATE:
23.10.2014
last updated on
2014

OCTOBER 23 at: 06:15 UTC

important notices >

 

 

 

 

SEP- 23 2013- I was busy today ! - TODAY`S update is late, but under procedure now!
   
click here for my linklist to all archived solar and terrestrial blogs back to 2010

ARCHIVED REPORTS OF MY SOLAR TERRESTRIAL BLOG

2014 >

           

2013 >

   

2012 >

 

 

2011 >

 

2010 >

remark: 2010 has no monthly archives but 1 archive of the entire year-
           
                 

SUB ARCHIVES:

click here for my archive with earth directed CMEs and SEPs 2013            
    click here for my archive with earth directed CMEs and SEPs 2014            
 

According to NASA, this 24th. 11 year sun spot cycle has probably a " twin peak"- the second in 2015. This project therefore will be prolongued.

THE 11 YEAR SUN SPOT CYCLE-

LAST MAXIMUM ACTIVITY IN: 2012/ 13 NEXT: APPR. in 2024

SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG

- activities and major events-

OCTOBER 2014

note: as the solar sun spot activity is decreasing now, major events are expected to get less at least in next years. (next cycle minimum expected in 2019)

.Therefor, this project is also limited now to basic updates. In July 2014 I decided to update this page only after significant event and changes and to turn this page into an monthly page that will cover significant events and can be archived then in that form.

^CURRENT VIEW ON THE SUN (SDO)

                    ^REAL TIME SOLAR CORONA (SoHO)  
research and documentary of the 24th solar cycle with evaluation of certain geoeffective Solar activities (esp. polarised rotating CMEs and SEPs) with coincident terrestrial events such as :
VOLCANO / HOTSPOT ACTIVITIES- EARTHQUAKES- (tTHUNDER_)STORMS- RAPIDE (PERMAICE) MELTDOWNS/ METHANHYDRATES- INDUCED CURRENTS (TECH) - WHALE BEACHINGS- OTHER...

 

SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG/ CONTENTS:
solar terrestrial blog/ START
solar terrestrial blog/ latest events
solar terrestrial blogs/ event logs/ 2014
related pages:
NASA/ SATELLITE PROGRAMM
Canary Islands volcano event blog & Forum
first evaluations (2010- 2012):
First evaluations of solar- terrestrial events
first evaluations/ special reports
ARCHIVES:

CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS and SAPS- archives

 

^ 360° NEAR REAL TIME VIEW ON THE SUN ( STEREO A & B)

scientific reviews/ NASA solar project(as far as available)

NASA:

unknown
earlier:
 
 
 
TRAFFIC LIGHT ALERT SYSTEM:
WATCH/ ATTENTION LOW: RISING HIGH DECREASING:

 

ESSENTIAL SOURCES ON SOLAR ACTIVITIES; Satellite Real Time images and data plots, weblinks etc....click here to expand and close the collapsible panel to read all..
CLICK HERE FOR INTERNATIONAL MEDIA AND NEWS SOURCES & OTHER EXTERNAL LINKS- DAILY NEWS FROM WHERE IT HAPPENS!..click here to expand and close the collapsible panel to read all..
(INTERNAL) find all known volcanoes worldwide on my internal GLOBAL VOLCANO MAPS - including webcams and other features- click here to expand and close the collapsible panel -

 

 

    NOAA/ PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER: Real time global Tsunami alert :  
LATEST EVENTS ( at time of this update)

 

 

 

 

1. LATEST AND CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL ALERTS

LAST UPDATE

20141019- 20  

- click here to find previous reports of this month/ click on " archives" below to find all avent logs back to 2011

 
         
               
1.1: CURRENT SPACE WEATHER ALERTS  

 

 

DATE >
20141019
RSGA/ USAF REPORT >
SOLAR PROTON EVENTS (SPE- also SEP (= solar energetic particles or: SAP (= solar accelerated protons)
 
ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY MAJOR X- RAY EVENTS:

LATEST MAJOR EARTH DIRECTED CME EVENTS:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME:

IMPACT SIZE LATEST CME ARRIVALS:: CH High Speed Solar winds (HSS). GEOMAGNETIC STORMS
SEP PARTICLE EVENT STATUS: (internal report only )
PROTONS (PHASE I) ACTIVE ELECTRONS (PHASE II) FINAL DISCHARGE (PHASE II) :
MINOR SEP (20140922- 24) > 2 MeV Electrons > 10. 000 pfu. NONE YET
GEOPHYSICAL EFFECTS: GEOPHYSICAL EFFECTS: GEOPHYSICAL EFFECTS:
VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES / MAINLY ON HOT SPOTS( SOUTH POLAR TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (-) TORNADOES, THUNDERSTORMS, VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (m. northern Hemisphere) COOLING DOWN & CONTRACTION OF EARTH MANTLE AND TECTONIC PLATES with STRONG SUBDUCTION QUAKES
NOAA/ SWPC ALERTS (protons/ electrons)  
no NOAA warning available!
 
20141020: 10 cm RADIO BURST

AR 12192 on 20141022M8.7 (LDE) at 1:59 UTC/ X1.6/2B (LDE) at 14:28 UTC

none yet!       CH G1 / K- INDEX >4  
NOAA/ SWPC alerts NOAA/ SWPC report:           NOAA/ SWPC report :  
       
PREVIOUS ALERTS:                
                 
       

 
major previous events> AR 12192 on 20141020: yet 2 M 5 +flares- X 10* events and SEP possible! 20141014/ impulsive M Flare

M 7 flare and partial CME on 20141002

20141014/ impulsive M Flare M 7/ 20141012/13 M 7 flare and partial CME on 20141002 NOAA/ SWPC (protons/ electrons)>  
                 
1.1.1.RELATED NASA/ NOAA REAL TIME SATELLITE PLOTS:              
^NOAA/ GOES solar x- ray flux ( 3 days data plot) solen.info/ solar sun spot x- ray activity and A index/last 12 months: NASA/ISWA/animation of interplanetary CME evolution a.m.o ACE/ interplanetary protons and electrons: SoHO/ current solar wind speed NOAA/ GOES (geo-) magnetometer- 3 days plot NOAA/ GOES integral proton flux (3 days data plot ) ^NOAA/ GOES Integral electron flux ( 3 days data plot  
 
 

 

 

               

1. 2. SOLAR EVENTS images and data:

               

1.2.1 LATEST MAJOR FLARES, CMEs AND SEPs:

 
   
 

20141022: as expected, AR 12192 continued its activity with an M 9 flare followed by an X 1,5 flare on 20141022. These flares were followed bvy a significant halo CME

20141020:Since more than one week, AR 12192 continues sto produce solar flare one after another and is- so also the USAF reports currently the only really active solar sun spot region. This activity in AR 12191 has intensified in the last days with 1 X 1 flare on 20141019 and already to M 5 flares today on 20141020. Solen.info remarks today, . the region is capable to produce an X 10 + flare in the coming days while it rotates more and more towards the solar meridian into an earth facing poistion!

. Most interestingly-, almost none of the recent flares has produced any CME ( coronal mass ejection)yet , what is 4me a clear sign, that the energy produced by this AR currently cannot really discharge from the sun-. There are as usually strong y ray bursts alonmg with these flares , those have even an significant impact on earth, but these electromagnetic waves are just one form of energy release but not the main one. ITs maybe best comparable with water in a pot that begins to boil: So lonmg as the pot is opened, you will see bubbles on the surface and the typical steam emission; But if you put a tap on it , you may feel increasing heat above the pot ( the result of electromagnetic waves comparable to the x rays form the Sun ) . but if the pot further is heated up , the pot might at any time explode and release the cinetic energy, which is the basic/ primary energy of all other forms of energy.

Thus.-similar to that the energy is still accumulating within the sun-( likely because of an currently high gravity within the sun.) what will most likely - lets say 100% discharge at anytime in the next days with a strong CME- but as as recent similar situations showed- rather with another and possibly VERY STRONG SEP. I am not a fear mongerer: but since the energy of several recent and elder SEPsis still latent in the Earth body and has not finally discharged, such an expectable new and major SEP can lead to apocalyptic volcanic events and to a nightmare of paradox climatic effects ( see SEP events above)

 
` 20141022> M 9 flare after 2 UTC and X 1,5 flare after1420 UTC
                   
click here for previous solar events logs and reports
                       
                       

20141018: The active regions that appeared behind the eastern limb on October 14 is meanwhile numbered as AR 12192 and is a nested region which was already present during previous rotation periods ( see images in general solar evolution). AR 12192 was very active during the past days and is currently the only AR on the visible disc that produces significant flares. On October 14 had produced a very long duration event ( LED), that continued on lower level the days after. At time of this update, AR 12192( meanwhile- resp. on Oct 18 at 76 ° Easter position) was going to produce and M x or X flare. SDO images are not available yet but will be posted as soon as availablecurrent. Current AR 12192 proves very good that AR can appear, fade and reappear on the same location during unknown amounts of time

20141016: ( img. 5) The active region behind the Eastern limb resumed the LDE M flare that began on October 14 (img 2) . The region is still unnumbered and has not yet rotated into view.

20141015: X ray activity was very low during the past days. A sudden major M flare occured on Oct 14 around 19 UTC in an active region which is still behind the Eastern and but will rotate into view in the next days. the exlosion was so strong, that STEREO Behind satellite (which is positioned east of the Sun obviously suffered a major damage. Currently however none of its telescopes transmits any images. STEREO Ahead is currently also out of order and transmits currently just a loop of images beteen 7 an 9 UTC on October 13 ending up with something that looks like a radiation shock.The associated CME was very strong but has no major earth directed parts.

update/ 20141009 : Solar x- ray activity / emissions dropped to another low point during the first week of October 2014. In general, two years after the cycle max., sun spot groups and single sun spots are getting smaller and flares as well are thus no more so strong. In the first week of Actover, AR 12021 was the only significant active region and produced multiple flares , those reached not more than M- level. The CMEs however were polarised either rotating or ejected mainly out of * ions or protons , those again caused a disturbance with a drop of in the integral electron activity after October 08. ( see image 3 and 4 below)

20141002: ( img 03 and 04 above ): eruptive activity is very low and increased slightly to M level on October 09 ( img 5) . Integral Electron flux is still hightened and was on Oct 08 between 100 and 1.000 pfu .

                       
 
                   
1.2.2 SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA::
               
X 1 flare/ AR 12192 on 20141019:
SDO/ 20141019/ 06:08 UTC
solar X ray flux/ AR 12192!) 20141018- 20
SDO/ M 9 flare at 20141022/ 1:42 UTC
solar X ray flux/ AR 12192!) 20141021- 23
         
         
 
         

 

 

                   
1.2.3 GENERAL SOLAR EVOLUTION/ NOTICES:
new active region AR 12192 was already present in previous rotation periods:      
AR 12192 on 20141018 (solen.info) AR 12192 was AR 12172 on 20140921 during the past rotation period: only parts of the active region were visible on 20140825- 2 rotation periods earlier AR 12192 was likely AR 12130 3 rotation periods earlier on 20140730: on 20140703- todays AR 12192 was still larger and was numbered as AR 12109:
current AR 12192 is a good prove, that AR can appear, fade and reappear on the same location during unknown periods of time
     
 

20140605

20140509

20140412

20140316

20140217

   
       
more about previous rotation periods ( - 27,25 days)on solen.info
   

 

 

               
1.3 SOLAR/ TERRESTRIAL RELATIONS
                 
                 
       
                 
- find previous events in the "recent event history" below and in my archives! REV- "Rapid Earthquake viewer/ University of S- California: ^NASA/ global D_RAP: impact of solar protons and x- rays  

update/ 201410022: *image 5 Integral electron flux incfreased further and exceeded NOAA treshold of 1.000 pfu o 20141021

update/ 201410020: ( image 5) as NASA D RAP images show; the x-ray emission from the intensive flare activity in solar sun spot region AR 12192 have an significant impact in the equatorial regions of the Earth . Two large RECURERENT coronal holes cause minor geomagnetic storming ( see detailed solar activity report below)

update/ 20141009 ( img 03): Integral Electron flux is still hightened and was on Oct 08 between 100 and 1.000 pfu .

update/ 20141002: a minor flank of the M flare and CME on Oct 02 reached the earth on 20141004 but had with some more than 120 (total) nT. just little impact

update/ 20141002: ( image 1) A major solar LDE-with an xray outburst of currently M 8 occured at time of this update: NASA D RAP shows significant atmospheric heating

20141002: Due to the solar Proton events, the integral Electrons flux is currently high and repeatedly exceeded NOAA treshold of 1.000 pfu during the past days.

 
 
   
(1) GOES/ ELECTRON FLUX/ 20140930- 20141002 (2) NASA/solar X- rays- 20140930- 20141002 (3) GOES/ ELECTRON FLUX/ 20141007- 20141009 (4) GOES/ ELECTRON FLUX/ 20141010- 20141012 GOE& Electron flux& 20141022/ 24  
   

 

 
 

 

 

 

           

2. HEADLINES & DATA

OCTOBER

2014

click on the tabs to widen collapsible panels!          
       
LATEST MAJOR EARTHQUAKES
         

20141007: Deadly earthquake near Yongping, Yunnan, China (Jinggu) – at least 2 killed, 324 injured

 

                       
DISASTROUS AND DANGEROUS EARTHQUAKES
               
                       

DATE

included report by :

       
MEDIA SOURCES
MEDIA SOURCES
VIDEO SOURCES  
20141007
           
 

Deadly earthquake near Yongping, Yunnan, China (Jinggu) – at least 2 killed, 324 injured, $300 million USD

(china daily)Firefighters, armed police arrive for quake rescue

BEIJING - More than 800 firefighters joined rescue operations in Jinggu county of Southwest China's Yunnan Province after the area was jolted by a 6.6-magnitude quake Tuesday night. The firemen, with 132 fire vehicles and 35 sniffer dogs, have helped relocate 450 locals to safe places, said a statement from the Ministry of Public Security's fire department on Wednesday. The team is also searching houses for survivors and helping build tents. The People's Liberation Army Armed Police also arrived soon after the quake and transferred more than 680 people to safe places. Yunnan governor Li Jiheng is currently taking command of the rescue team. He arrived at the epicenter of the 6.6-magnitude earthquake at 3:50 a.m. in Yongping Township, Jinggu county. By Wednesday morning, the quake, which struck at 9:49 p.m. Beijing Time, has left 324 people injured and forced 124,6000 people from their homes.res...read more.,..

 

 

 

 

 
       
 
             
MAJOR NATURAL AND TECHNICAL INCIDENTS          

20141016: Italy: Anger grows as torrential rain brings more misery to flood soaked Italy- Nepal: trekkers and guides killed in freak avalanches

                     
20141012- 16
 

 

               
 

Euronews/ 20141016/: Nepal: trekkers and guides killed in freak avalanches

Several avalanches in central Nepal have killed at least 26 people. The confirmed dead are mainly trekkers, guides and local farmers and include eight foreigners. Rescue officials say the toll could rise because dozens more people were out of contact due to poor communication links. Unseasonal blizzards and lashing rain brought on by cyclone Hudhud triggered avalanches mainly near Annapurna, and the district of Mustang. A helicopter pilot is said to have spotted more bodies in the snow but heavy snowfalls are making it impossible to retrieve them....read more...

   
       

 

Euronews/20141016: Italy: Anger grows as torrential rain brings more misery to flood soaked Italy.

Heavy rains are continuing to wreak havoc across northern and central Italy causing widespread flooding and loss of life. On Wednesday in Tuscany two women died after their car was swept away when a local river broke its banks . Their deaths bring the number of victims in recent days to four. Beleaguered residents are angry: “Look at Genoa!” said one man trying to rescue belongings from his flooded home.“They’ve have floods twice in five years. For us it’s twice in two.” Many believe the flooding could be prevented.One woman blamed local and regional governments: “The state and local administrations ask money for taxes, but they don’t use it to protect us. I’m 70 years old and I’m not going to go on paying for nothing.”....read more...

Euronews/ 20141011) Controversy in Genoa after floods that left one man dead

A 57- year-old man has died in Italy after flash floods hit the port city of Genoa. One of the city’s biggest rivers, the Bisagno, burst its banks overnight on Thursday sending flood waters sweeping through the streets.The waters smashed shop windows, washed away cars and left some neighborhoods cut off from rescuers. There is anger among many locals that authorities failed to sound the alarm beforehand. In 2011, heavy flooding in Genoa left six people dead. One woman said: “We did not receive any alert even though it has been raining heavily for two days.” Another agreed, saying: “Nobody did anything to protect us and this is the result. I have been living here for 46 years and we’ve suffered four floodings.” One local resident demanded more help from the authorities: “Our mayor must come here with volunteers, council employees and give us some help. But concrete help, with money, not with talk.”

 
 
                       
                       

 

 
           
LATEST MAJOR TROPICAL STORMS & HEAVY WEATHERS
       

20141018: Category 2 Gonzalo Hits Bemuda; Hurricane Ana Brushing Hawaii; Trudy Drenching Mexico

 

TROPICAL STORMS/OCTOBER 2014
 

note: from September 2014 on, this report will contain / collect only data about hurricanes with windspeeds above 50 MPH. For latest developing tropical storms, visit wunderground., com! datasets with a green background are hurricanes those are already over!

   

data by: wunderground.com

you find all previous reports in my blog archives

                     

 

 

             
LATEST TROPICAL STORMS
           

 

                     
           
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
     
>
   
NAME/ TRACKING LINK
EMERGED /updated :
REGION
WIND SPEED
COORDINATES
DIRECTION
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
TYPE/ CATH
   

Hurricane Gonzalo

20141014

                 
EVOLUTION:

20141016

NORTHERN ATLANTIC 140 MPH (+) 68.7° W 25.3° N N 500 KM NORTH OF HAITI TS (4)    
 

20141018

  90 MPH (-) 61.1° W 38.2° N NNE 750 km East of New York City TS (1)    
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
             
NAME/ TRACKING LINK
EMERGED ON:
REGION
WIND SPEED
COORDINATES
DIRECTION
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
TYPE/ CATH
   
                     

Tropical Storm Ana

20141015

                 
EVOLUTION:

20141016 >

CENTRAL PACIFIC 55 MPH (-) 149.3° W 14.1° N W 700 KM SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII ISLANDS TS (1)    
 

20141018

  80 MPH (+) 158.1° W 18.5° N NW 200 KM SSW of HAWAII ISLANDS TS (1)    
                     
  EMERGED ON:                  

Tropical Cyclone Hudhud

20141006?

                 
EVOLUTION:                    
                     
                     
INDIAN OCEAN:
There are no tropical cyclones in this region
      600 Km NNE OF NAHA( NO    
NAME/ TRACKING LINK
EMERGED ON:
REGION
WIND SPEED
COORDINATES
DIRECTION
APPROXIMATE GEOGRAPHIC POSITION
TYPE/ CATH
   
EVOLUTION:                    
                     
           

 

 

         
                     

20141018

               

Jeff Masters/ wunderground.com/ 20141018: Category 2 Gonzalo Hits Bemuda; Hurricane Ana Brushing Hawaii; Trudy Drenching Mexico

Hurricane Gonzalo made a direct hit on the island of Bermuda near 8:30 pm EDT Friday night rated by NHC as a strong Category 2 storm with sustained 110 mph winds. Sustained winds at the Bermuda Airport peaked at 76 mph, with a gust to 96 mph, as the northern eyewall passed overhead between 8 - 9 pm ADT. After a calm lasting about an hour, when the pressure sank to 953 mb, the southern eyewall hit, with stronger winds than the northern eyewall--93 mph, gusting to 113 mph, at 11:55 pm ADT. An unofficial gust of 144 mph was recorded at Commissioners Point at an elevation of 262', a site notorious for recording strong winds due to local terrain effects.

Gonzalo's damage not as heavy as Fabian's of 2003 Thankfully, no one was killed on Bermuda from Gonzalo. Damage on the island was considerable, though appears to be much lower than that wrought by Category 3 Hurricane Fabian of 2003, the only hurricane to get its name retired exclusively because of its impact on the island of Bermuda. Fabian did $300 million in damage, making it the most expensive hurricane ever to hit the island. Fabian's storm surge destroyed the causeway connecting the airport to the rest of the island, and this causeway withstood Gonzalo's impact--though divers are scheduled to inspect its footings Saturday afternoon before reopening will occur. Damage at the airport was mostly minor (roof damage and minor flooding), and all the navigational infrastructure seems intact.

Hurricane Ana bringing heavy rains to Hawaii Hurricane Ana took advantage of light wind shear and warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) warm of 27.4°C (81°F) to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds as of 5 am EDT on Saturday, but is not a threat to make a direct hit on any of the Hawaiian Islands. Satellite loops on Saturday morning showed that Ana had its most impressive appearance yet, with a large area of heavy thunderstorms, plenty of low level spiral bands, and solid upper-level outflow to the north and east. Heavy rains causing flash floods and mudslides are a major concerni...read more...

Tropical Storm Trudy hits Mexico In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Trudy formed Friday night and was making landfall on the Pacific coast of Mexico about 75 miles east-southeast of Acapulco on Saturday morning with sustained winds of 60 mph. Acapulco radar is showing very heavy rains affecting the coast, and Trudy has the potential to dump rains of 6 - 12 inches during the next few days in the states of Guerrero and Oaxaca in southern Mexico.

 

 

 

             
                     

20141009

               

Jeff Masters/ wunderground. com/ 20141015: 20141016: Gonzalo the Atlantic's First Category 4 Hurricane Since 2011; Ana Takes Aim at Hawaii

A Hurricane Watch is up for Bermuda as Powerful Category 4 Hurricane Gonzalo aims its 130 mph winds towards the island. Gonzalo is the Atlantic's first Category 4 hurricane since October 2, 2011, when Hurricane Ophelia reached 140 mph winds. Gonzalo walloped the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands on Monday into Tuesday morning while rapidly intensifying from a tropical storm to a strong Category 1 hurricane. One person was killed on St. Maarten, and two others were missing--one in St. Martin and one in St. Barths, according to The Daily Herald. Twelve people were injured in Antigua.

Forecast for Gonzalo Data from an Air Force hurricane hunter mission and satellite loops on Wednesday morning showed that Gonzalo had a tiny 6-mile diameter inner eye, with a concentric 28-mile diameter outer eyewall forming. The inner eyewall will likely collapse by Wednesday evening and the outer eyewall will take over as the main eyewall in an eyewall replacement cycle. This process should halt intensification, and possibly reduce Gonzalo to Category 3 status by Wednesday evening. But with wind shear a light 5 - 10 knots and warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) near 29°C (84°F), Gonzalo should be able to stay a major hurricane into Thursday. If Gonzalo is able to complete its eyewall replacement cycle quickly, the hurricane could re-intensify some and be a Category 4 storm into Friday morning. It is more likely, though that Gonzalo reached its peak lifetime intensity at 11 am EDT Wednesday, as the official NHC forecast indicates

   

 

 

             
                       

 

 
         

LATEST MAJOR VOLCANO ACTIVITIES - including official reports (global volcanism program/ Smithsonian/ USGS)

       

20141012: Sinabung volcano (Sumatra, Indonesia) activity update: frequent pyroclastic flows up to 4.5 km long

 

 

(volcano- discovery/ 20141014) Sinabung volcano (Sumatra, Indonesia) activity update: frequent pyroclastic flows up to 4.5 km long

Activity has picked up considerably at the volcano during the past days. Several pyroclastic flows (dangerous hot avalanches of fragmented lava and hot gasses) traveled down the SE (and some on the NE) flanks of the volcano, threatening again the closest inhabited areas to the S of Sinabung. The flows originated by collapses on the viscous growing lava lobe on the steep southeastern flank of the volcano and traveled distances of 3-4.5 km. Some still inhabited villages on the southern feet of the volcano are now at elevated risk. Ash fall has occurred in more than 12 km distances as a result of the so-called co-ignimbrite ash plumes (rising ash from the avalanches) that rose to several km height. Some ash plumes reached Medan airport where several flights have been cancelled.

(volcano- discovery/ 20141013) Mayon volcano (Luzon Island, Philippines) activity update: extrusion of viscous lava flow, warning of possible explosive eruption

A viscous lava flow started to descend from the summit crater of the volcano on the southeast slope. On Sunday, it was approx. 350 m long and advancing slowly, with incandescence visible at night. According to an interview with Philvolcs scientists, the present situation is similar to the days before a large explosion occurred in 1986. The currently slow extrusion could be the foreplay of a potentially dangerous and large explosive eruption. This scenario could occur if the lava flow is caused by new, gas-rich magma, which is now rising and currently pushing out an overlying column of older, degassed and viscous lava above it in the conduit. According to press articles, more than 12,000 people have been evacuated from areas close to the volcano and a 6 km exclusion zone is in place. Other hazards include landslides and pyroclastic flows if parts of the lava flow collapse.

 

 

 

MOUNT ONTAKE ERUPTION/ OCTOBER 2014:


ON-TAKE
35°53'23"N/ 137°29'0"E 0803-04= Complex volcano Hi* ON-TAKE    
click here to find ONTAKE on my internal volcano maps

 

(NHK/ 20141004:

51 confirmed dead in Mt. Ontake's eruption Japan Oct. 4, 2014 - Updated 14:58 UTC+2 Japanese authorities have confirmed the deaths of 4 more people in connection with the eruption of Mount Ontake last week. This brings to 51 the number of people confirmed to have died. On Saturday, about 1,000 Ground Self-Defense Force personnel, police officers and fire fighters searched for those still missing. They found 4 people near and around the summit. All of them were later confirmed dead. The search operation on Sunday may be canceled as weather officials are predicting rain in the morning and a typhoon is forecast to approach on Monday.

(Russia Today/ 20140928) Over 30 people feared dead near Japanese volcano after eruption

Over 30 people are feared dead near the erupting Ontake volcano in central Japan, police reported. The volcano started erupting on Saturday, sending ash clouds down the mountain’s slope for more than 3 kilometers. Volcano erupts in central Japan, dozens injured (VIDEO, PHOTOS) The people were found by police officers in a state of "cardiopulmonary arrest” near the top of the volcano, NHK national news reported. “We have confirmed that more than 30 individuals in cardiac arrest have been found near the summit,” a spokesman for Nagano prefecture police told AFP. Hundreds of people, including children, were left stranded near the top of the volcano, police told NHK. Most of them made their way down Saturday evening.---read more...

 

 

 

   
NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES
       
 
This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >
         
volcano-discovery/gadget

note: this report does NOT necessarely represent all currently global active volcanoes!

 

report by:

GVP  

 

Smithsonian Institution / USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report

Activity for the week of 15 October-21 October 2014

The Smithsonian page is updated on Wednesdays. Please see the GVP Home Page for news of the latest significant activity.

 
 

NEW ACTIVITIES/ UPDATES:

Cerro Negro de Mayasquer Colombia-Ecuador New
Copahue Central Chile-Argentina border New
Etna Sicily (Italy) New
Karangetang [Api Siau] Siau Island (Indonesia) New
Mayon Luzon (Philippines) New
Ontakesan Honshu (Japan) New
Poas Costa Rica New
Popocatepetl Mexico New
Sinabung Indonesia New

 

ONGOING ACTIVITIES/ UPDATES:

Aira Kyushu (Japan) Ongoing
Bardarbunga Iceland Ongoing
Chirpoi Kuril Islands (Russia) Ongoing
Dukono Halmahera (Indonesia) Ongoing
Kilauea Hawaiian Islands (USA) Ongoing
Sheveluch Central Kamchatka (Russia) Ongoing
Shishaldin Fox Islands (USA) Ongoing
Stromboli Aeolian Islands (Italy) Ongoing
Zhupanovsky Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) Ongoing

 

 
       
     
     

 

 

   
NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES
       
 
This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >
         
volcano-discovery/gadget

note: this report does NOT necessarely represent all currently global active volcanoes!

 

report by:

GVP  

 

Smithsonian Institution / USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report

Activity for the week of 1 October-7 October 2014

The Smithsonian page is updated on Wednesdays. Please see the GVP Home Page for news of the latest significant activity.

 
 

NEW ACTIVITIES/ UPDATES:

ONGOING ACTIVITIES/ UPDATES:

 
 
Name Location Activity
Iceland
New
Central Chile-Argentina border
New
Flores Island (Indonesia)
New
Luzon (Philippines)
New
Honshu (Japan)
New
Central Kamchatka (Russia)
New
Indonesia
New
Kyushu (Japan)
Ongoing
Kyushu (Japan)
Ongoing
Halmahera (Indonesia)
Ongoing
Eastern Kamchatka (Russia)
Ongoing
Hawaiian Islands (USA)
Ongoing
Ryukyu Islands (Japan)
Ongoing
Fox Islands (USA)
Ongoing
Aeolian Islands (Italy)
Ongoing
Ecuador
Ongoing
Eastern Kamchatka (Russia)
Ongoing
 
     
     

 

 

   
NEW VOLCANO ACTIVITIES
       
 
This section will be updated usually Thursdays, after the latest GVP Weekly Volcanic Activity Report was published. click on the buttons right for my internal volcano maps and statistics >
         
volcano-discovery/gadget

note: this report does NOT necessarely represent all currently global active volcanoes!

 

report by:

GVP  

 

Smithsonian Institution / USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report

Activity for the week of 24 September-30 September 2014

The Smithsonian page is updated on Wednesdays. Please see the GVP Home Page for news of the latest significant activity.

 
 

NEW ACTIVITIES/ UPDATES:

ONGOING ACTIVITIES/ UPDATES:

 
 
Bardarbunga Iceland New
Copahue Central Chile-Argentina border New
Mayon Luzon (Philippines) New
Ontakesan Honshu (Japan) New
Sheveluch Central Kamchatka (Russia) New
Aira Kyushu (Japan) Ongoing
Ambrym Vanuatu Ongoing
Dukono Halmahera (Indonesia) Ongoing
Kilauea Hawaiian Islands (USA) Ongoing
Kuchinoerabujima Ryukyu Islands (Japan) Ongoing
Popocatepetl Mexico Ongoing
Sabancaya Peru Ongoing
Santa Maria Guatemala Ongoing
Shishaldin Fox Islands (USA) Ongoing
Sinabung Indonesia Ongoing
Tungurahua Ecuador Ongoing
Zhupanovsky Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) Ongoing
 
     
     

INTERACTIVE REGIONAL VOLCANO MAPS by: alien-homepage.de

all volcanoes worldwide, weekly updated global activity status ( GVP) with webcams and many informations!

 

 
NORTHERN AMERICA Central America, Mexico and Caribic South America- Northern part

South America- Southern part

 

Africa and Arabic peninsula

 

Europe, Western Asia Kamchatka peninsula, Aleutian islands

Indonesia and Philippines

Japan, Mariana Islands- Kyril islands

S- W-Pacific region/ Australia

 
 
click here, to get to an interactive GLOBAL volcano map with names and labels  
   
 
     

 

 

   
 
   
       
       
       
 
       
RELATED ONLINE SOURCES:
       

 

 
 
 

 

 

 

                 
3. LAST SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG: special reports              

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG : click here for LATEST EARTHQUAKES AND TSUNAMI EVENTS

 

 

     
ENVIRONMENTAL BLOG
Rapid Earthquake viewer/ Univ. of CA EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC  
EARTHQUAKE DATA: EMSC NEIC   you find all previous reports in my blog archives  
                   
                   

RELATED TSUNAMI EVENTS:

note: the Tsunami report on this site here is for documentary but rather not up to date. For latest informations, check out: NOAA/ PTWC TSUNAMI REAL TIME ALERTS  

update/ last known event

20140401 visit NOAA websitefor latest updates! >
LATEST NOAA REPORT IN TEXT FORMAT: ( at time of this update!)
 
INITIAL SEAQUAKE >  
LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >
 
DEPTH >
   
 
TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER: NOAA/ PTWC REPORT ISSUED ON:   ACTIVE WARNING ( YES/ NO): NONE ( Default) CANCELLED AT :    
EVALUATION BY NOAA/ PTWC ( DETAILS)
.
 
STRONGEST MEASURED ("INITIAL) TSUNAMI WAVE   LOCATION OF ORIGIN   NR OF WAVES   WAVE HEIGHTS    
WARNINGS ISSUED FOR:     ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES >  
                       
   

 

 

     
MAJOR EARTHQUAKES > M 6.0 CURRENT MONTH
GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0
DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>

 

 

EPICENTER/ MAP

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME
M 6.1 - SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS - 2014-10-14 04:12:30 UTC
LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >
34.94 S ; 179.92 W
DEPTH >
30 km    

 

               

 

 

     

 

 

     
MAJOR EARTHQUAKES > M 6.0 CURRENT MONTH
GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0
DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>

 

 

EPICENTER/ MAP

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME
M 7.3 - NEAR COAST OF NICARAGUA - 2014-10-14 03:51:39 UTC
LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >
12.62 N ; 87.99 W
DEPTH >
80 km    

 

               

 

 

     

 

 

     
MAJOR EARTHQUAKES > M 6.0 CURRENT MONTH
GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0
DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>

availabe report >

EPICENTER/ MAP

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME
M 6.0 - HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION - 2014-10-11 02:35:45 UTC
LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >
41.07 N ; 143.16 E
DEPTH >
10 km    

 

               

 

 

     
MAJOR EARTHQUAKES > M 6.0 CURRENT MONTH
GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0
DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>

availabe report >

EPICENTER/ MAP

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME
M 6.0 - HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION - 2014-10-11 02:35:45 UTC
LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >
41.07 N ; 143.16 E
DEPTH >
10 km    

 

               

 

 

     

 

 

     
MAJOR EARTHQUAKES > M 6.0 CURRENT MONTH
GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0
DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>

 

 

EPICENTER/ MAP

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME
M 7.1 - SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE - 2014-10-09 02:14:32 UTC
LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >
32.08 S ; 110.83 W
DEPTH >
10 km    
  M 6.5 - SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE - 2014-10-09 02:32:07 UTC   32.23 S ; 111.03 W   10 km    

 

               

 

 

     

 

 

     
MAJOR EARTHQUAKES > M 6.0 CURRENT MONTH
GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0
DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>

 

 

EPICENTER/ MAP

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME
M 6.0 - GULF OF CALIFORNIA - 2014-10-08 02:40:54 UTC
LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >
23.89 N ; 108.40 W
DEPTH >
2 km    

 

               

 

 

     
MAJOR EARTHQUAKES > M 6.0 CURRENT MONTH
GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0
DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>

 

 

EPICENTER/ MAP

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME
M 6.1 - YUNNAN, CHINA - 2014-10-07 13:49:41 UTC
LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >
23.45 N ; 100.69 E
DEPTH >
10 km    

 

               

 

 

     

 

 

     
MAJOR EARTHQUAKES > M 6.0 CURRENT MONTH
GLOBAL >M 6.0/ EUROPE: > M 5.0
DAMAGE/ CATHEGORY>

 

 

EPICENTER/ MAP

 
EVENT MAGNITUDE/ REGION AND TIME
M 6.0 - NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G. - 2014-10-01 03:38:54 UTC
LATITUDE/ LONGITUDE >
5.97 S ; 149.45 E
DEPTH >
60 km    

 

               

 

 

     

 

 

     
EARTHQUAKE REGIONS/ FROM 180° E ON WESTWARDS

TECTONICS:

FREQUENCY/ SINCE

REGION*

EPICENTER:

NUMBER

EVENT ( link to ESMC)  

KAMCHATKA PENINSULA/ KURIL ISLANDS / JAPAN

N-AM. >< EUR. >< PAC.><PHIL. magmatic?

"B"

EPICENTER      

 

  VOLCANIC   EPICENTER      

- EASTERN PACIFIC/ NZL, FIJI, VANUATU ETC.

PAC. >< INDO- AUS FREQUENT

"B"

EPICENTER      

(REGION INDONESIA/ PHILIPPINES/ INDIA)

EUR.>< / INDO- AUS.  

"A"

EPICENTER      

 

      EPICENTER      

EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

EUR.>< / INDO- AUS. 20140531

"A"

EPICENTER      

MEDITERRANEAN SEA REGION (ALL)

AFRICA >< EURASIA 20141004/volcanic Etna)

"E"

       

 

      EPICENTER 4 x> M 2 M 2.9 - SICILY, ITALY - 2014-10-05 06:02:34 UTC  

 

      EPICENTER   M 5.1 - CRETE, GREECE - 2014-10-03 22:20:46 UTC  

> WESTERN TURKEY

      EPICENTER      

ARABIC PLATE -SYRIA, IRAQ ETC. INCL. IRAN incl Asia minor)

AFR><ARAB >< EUR><INDO-AUS FREQUENT

"F"

EPICENTER      

- AFRICA AND ITS TECTONIC BOUNDARIES

EUR >< AFR>< AMER >< ANTAR.

sometimes

"E"

EPICENTER      

 

      EPICENTER      

CONTINENTAL EURASIA INCLUDING ASIA

N-AM. ><EUR->< AFR.><PAC> FREQUENT

"E"/"F

EPICENTER   M 5.0 - AZERBAIJAN - 2014-10-04 04:59:34 UTC  

 

      EPICENTER      

GERMANY / near to EIFEL VOLCANIC FIELD

EURASIA (volcanic) SELDOM

"E"

EPICENTER 01 M 2.5 - GERMANY - 2014-10-09 23:03:30 UTC  

 

      EPICENTER 01 M 2.2 - GERMANY - 2014-10-14 12:18:56 UTC  
        EPICENTER 01 M 2.2 - GERMANY - 2014-10-20 12:59:35 UTC  

CANARY AND AZORES ISLANDS REGION

N & S -AM. >< AFR >< EURASIA HOT SPOT /AFTER SEP

"E"

EPICENTER 1 X > M 2 ( M 2.5 - CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION - 2014-10-04 06:39:42 UTC  
        EPICENTER   M 2.5 - CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION - 2014-10-22 23:01:39 UTC  

 

          for more updates on the CANARY ISLANDS; visit my google blogspot Canary" hotspot5  

EARTHQUAKE SWARM)/ ICELAND- NORTHERN ATLANTIC/ ARCTIC SEA

N & S -AM. ><EURASIA volcanic/ 20140824

"E"

EPICENTER slowly decreasing    

 

      EPICENTER   M 5.5 - ICELAND - 2014-10-07 10:22:32 UTC  

 

      EPICENTER   M 5.0 - ICELAND - 2014-10-12 08:43:44 UTC  
        EPICENTER 01 x > M5 M 5.4 - ICELAND - 2014-10-21 08:36:40 UTC  

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC

N& S -AM. >< AFRICA >< EUR. HOT SPOT / AFTER SEP

"E"

EPICENTER   M 5.6 - NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE - 2014-10-08 03:04:10 UTC  

 

      EPICENTER      

EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ PUERTO RICO REGION GULF OF MEXICO REGION/ CARIBIC

N & S -AM. >CARIBBEAN ><NASCA ><COCOS 20140904

"C"

EPICENTER      

PANAMERICA

N & S -AM. ><NASCA ><COCOS LIKELY VOLCANIC

"C"

EPICENTER      

 

      EPICENTER      

REGION PERU- BOLIVIA

PAC. >< SOUTH AM. >< NASZA

 

"D"

EPICENTER      

 

      EPICENTER      

REGION CHILE / ARGENTINE ( SA/ NASCA PLATE)

SOUTH AMERICA >< NASZA     EPICENTER      

 

      EPICENTER      

CENTRAL AND EASTERN USA

NORTH-AMERICA><EUR/ ATLANTIC SERIAL SINCE FEB 2014   EPICENTER      

ANTARCTICA REGION

      EPICENTER      

YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK

N-AM./ SAN ANDREAS FAULT >< J. DE FUCA>< PACIFIC  

"C"

EPICENTER      

EARTHQUAKE SWARM/ OKLAHOMA REGION

Its suggested, the eq swarm is a results of gas fracking operations

EPICENTER 03 x > M 2 M 3.6 - OKLAHOMA - 2014-10-01 18:18:55 UTC  

EARTHQUAKE SWARM // CA/ SAN ANDREAS FAULT

N-AM./ SAN ANDREAS FAULT >< J. DE FUCA>< PACIFIC     EPICENTER 17 x > M 2.0 M 3.9 - NEVADA - 2014-10-01 12:46:09 UTC  

 

      EPICENTER   the swarm is continuing with low pace. updates will be made only after a significant increase  

 

      EPICENTER      

NORTHERN CANADA, ALASKA/ (CASCADIAN SZ)

NORTH-AMERICA ><EXPLORER P. SOMETIMES

"C"

EPICENTER      
        EPICENTER      

yellow background= activity increased in this region- compared to yesterdays`s values

*"REGION" AS LISTED IN " GEOGRAPHIC CME IMPACT REGIONS" see > todays report  
     
     
ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:            

3.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVENT FORECAST (2): GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HIGHEST CME EFFECTS BY THE LATEST CME IMPACT:

LATEST RELATED CME(SEP IMPACT 20140107/20140218-20/ 20140225 01- 04/ 14

 

EXPLANATIONS>

Green backcolored fields marks those regions where geomagnetic field density values during the CME impact was below 100 nT.

Yellow backcolored fields mark the regions with values above 100 nT./

Red backcolored field mark the regions , those were hit relatively strongest ( peak values) by the latest CME. Colors from orange to light red mark GRADUAL IMPACTS OF MULTIPLE CMEs CLUSTERS.

 

HOW TO READ THIS FORECAST>

INCREASES IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES will - if- most probably occure - SOON AFTER CME impact- within the RED colored regions and between the red and yellow regions!

STORMS, ICE MELTINGS AN FLOODINGS might- if- then most probably occureSOON AFTER CME impacts-within the RED COLORED REGIONS

The relatively strongest EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES WILL MOST PROBABLY occure AFTER a LATENCY period due to CME IMPACT on the TECTONIC BOUNDARIES within the RED until the YELLOW (backcolored) REGIONS. Read "latency remarks"

 

REGIONS

REGION "A"

REGION "B"(1)

REGION "B"(2)

REGION "C"

REGION" D"

REGION "E" (1)

REGION "E" (2)

REGION "F"

 

REGIONS COVERED BY LATEST CME IMPACT>

EASTERN EURASIA-- INDONESIA-WESTERN PACIFIC PHILIPPINES--AUSTRALIA WEST JAPAN/EAST- AUSTRALIA/ (EAST), PNG. NZL ALEUT./ KAMCHATKA- EASTERN PACIFIC/ HAWAII

WESTERN USA+ WEST COAST- EASTERN PACIFIC- CANADA-ALASKA

GULF OF MEXICO/ PANAMERICA/CA./ CENTRAL USA/ SOUTH - AMERICA- WEST

, EASTERN ATLANTIC/ (CANARIES/ ICELAND)- N & S- AMERICA/ EAST

CENTRAL (WEST) EUROPE/ AFRICA

INDIA & INDIAN OCEAN- CENTR: EURASIA, AFRICA (EAST), ARABIA ASIA MINOR

 

RELATED TECTONIC BOUNDARIES>

WESTERN PACIFIC< EAST EURASIA>< INDO-AUSTRALIA

NORTH AMERICA (W) >< EURASIA (E) ><PACIFIC ><INDO-AUS

NORTH AMERICA (W) >< EURASIA (E) ><PACIFIC

NORTH AMERICA/ incl. Microplates ><PACIFIC

AFRICA >< CARRIBEAN >< SOUTH AMERIA >< NASCA>< COCOS

EURASIA <> N-AMERICA/ EASTCARRIBEAN ><AFRICA

N-AMERICA/WEST >< EURASIA >< ARABIA ><AFRICA

EURASIA><ARABIA ><INDO-AUSTRALIA

 

UTC TIME ZONES >

..

....

..

...

...

...

...

..

 

LONGITUDES>

135° E- 90° E

135° E- 180°

180° - 135° W

90° W- 135° W

45° W- 90° W

45° W - 00° W

00° W- 45° E

45° E- 90° E

 

     
             
 

 

 

 

 

DETAILED REPORT OF LATEST MAJOR SOLAR SUN SPOT ACTIVITIES ( updated only during major events, such as major flares CMEs or SEPs)

   

 

 

               
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL DATA AND EVENTS
solar data by: solen.info NASA/  
latest data (external sources):
SUN OBSERVERS:
OTHERS:
 
                       

AUG 2014: DAILY SOLAR REVIEWS ARE BEING REDUCED TO SIGNIFICANT SOLAR ACTIVITY DEVELOPMENTS !

means: you find only full reports, that cover all related data, if stronger activities occure. Some monthly archives might therefor contain only one daily review,. others might contain more. depending on the evolution of solar sun spot activity after the peak was reached on 2013

 
     

 

 

               
                 

2014

MONTH

OCTOBER

DAY:

20

< date refers to available event data and summaries

click here for previous days reports  

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

note: solar and terrestrial data are always yesterrday`s values!

20141919

ACTIVE REGIONS AND CORONAL HOLES AT 23:45 UTC (solen.info)  

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

86

 

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

320-508

FLARES >

C

12

 

SOLAR FLUX (sfu.)

173

 

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

C 1.3

 

M

01  

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

09

 

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

35- 125 nT

MAJOR SOLAR FLARES

X

 

 
                 
Today`s RSGA/ USAF - report on solar activity > Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 19/0503Z from Region 2192 (S13E43). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Oct, 21 Oct, 22 Oct).  
         

 

 

     

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS INVOLVED IN MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITIES, CMEs OR SEPS ( other active regions are not posted)

EARTH DIRECTED CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

CLICK HERE FOR LATEST EARTH DIRECTED CMES AND SEP EVENTS (archives)  

STATUS :

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

       

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

 

(SUNSPOTS AFTER 24 UTC)

LONGITUDE next 24 h.

LATITUDE

CLASS/ CONF.*

MAJOR ACTIVITIES:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

EXP. I. MPACT SIZE:

 
  AR 12192 50- 36 ° E 14° S FKC/ FKC X1.1/3F (LDE) qt 5:03 UTC The recent flares have not produced any CME! STRONG SEP possible! none yet -
 
                   
 

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

            ---
 
solen/info/ active regions>
           
             
 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 
NUMBER POSITION*: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING MAG &remarks  
CH 639 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE LARGE/ GROWING   20141017- 18 recurrent  
CH 638 CENTRAL FADED   20141014- 15    
             
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

LOW-

SOURCE:

CH 639

 
ABBREVIATIONS>
NORTH/ SOUTH POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP/ SP CH- EXT)
UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH
RECURR.= RECURRENT
T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL
 

 

 

               
INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX:
           
 
                     

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT : LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:    
PROTON FLUX DECREASING

RISING AFTER20141010/ 22 UTC

ELECTRON FLUX NORMAL

 

   
               
BEGIN/ END:  

 

 

BEGIN/ END:    

 

 

   
   
ACE ( Advanced Composition Explorer) is on and L 1 orbit at the edge between solar and geomagnetic field and measures the intensity and composition of interplanetary solar winds
 
 

 

 

 

           

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

                 

STATUS:

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES 3 day sat environment ( combined plot) GOES integral ELECTRON FLUX- past 3 days* integral proton flux- past 3 days  

QUIET

 

UNSETTLED

 
ACTIVE  
MINOR STORM  

MAJOR STORM

 
HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS  
CME IMPACT/ EFFECTS  
 
 
* see also report below!
 
USAF report on geophysical activity for previous day:>>        
* graph only during significant events
 
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 513 km/s at 19/0426Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 19/1354Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 19/1741Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 272 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (20 Oct) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (20 Oct, 21 Oct, 22 Oct).
     
                       
                     
GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -12 nT (USAF) NEUTRAL NORTHWARD +15 nT (USAF) The Bz component is the value, the geomagnetic field density fluctuates /shifts in North/ South direction such as during CME impacts  
EFFECTIVE PROTONS  

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

GOES (= Geostationary operative environmental satellites) are at geostationary orbit and measure influences / impacts on the geomagnetic field  
new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report and report that represents the highest N/ S amplitude of that day    

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE IMPACTS AND SPACE WEATHER ALERTS ( NOAA):

         
INTEGRAL PARTICLE FLUX:   < NOAA PARTICLE ALERTS >

GEOMAGNETIC STORMS AND RADIATION ALERTS ( NOAA):

 
PARTICLE TYPE:

20141014

20141015

20141016

20141014

20141015

SOLAR ALERTS/ INFLUENCES

 

> 10 MeV PROTON FLUX

+/- 0.1 pfu.

+/- 0.1 pfu.

+/- 0.1 pfu.
s 2 PROTON STORM;

X RAY > M 5(FLARE ACTIVITY)

 
> 100 MeV PROTON FLUX > 0.01 < 0.1 pfu. > 0.01 < 0.1 pfu. > 0.01 < 0.1 pfu.     TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION  
PARTICLE TYPE:

20141014

20141015

20141016

 

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

 

>0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>30 < 9.000 pfu (+) >04 < 9.000 pfu (+) > 1.000 pfu.  

GEOMAGNETIC STORM/ K INDEX > 4

 

>2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>- xx< 150 (-) >- xx< 25 (-) disturbance (protons)  
x ray alerts are peaks in solar x ray emissions those occure during flare activities )
 
NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA (3) NO CURRENT DATA UNKNOWN  
TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS are typical indicators for Coronal Mass Ejections ( CME)
 
         
10 cm RADIO BURSTS are typical indicators for STRONGER ERUPTIONS- esp SEPs
 
^remark: orange background means: effect is latent or pending
 
treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu
(1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu
 
         
    < NOAA ALERTS >

CME IMPACTS / SUDDEN IMPULSE ( NOAA):

 
       

 

NOAA/ SUDDEN IMPULSE

EARTH IMPACT ON

SOLAR EVENT :

TYPE OF RELATED SOLAR FLARE OR ACTIVITY

 
               
         
                       
PREVIOUS 1 DAY REPORTS / CURRENT MONTH ( updated during significant activities only)
                 

2014

MONTH

SEPTEMBER

DAY:

06

< date refers to available event data and summaries

click here for previous days reports  

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

note: solar and terrestrial data are always yesterrday`s values!

20140905

ACTIVE REGIONS AND CORONAL HOLES AT 23:45 UTC (solen.info)  

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

124

 

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

340-419

FLARES >

C

22

 

SOLAR FLUX (sfu.)

144

 

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

C 1.1

 

M

   

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

06

 

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

80- 140 nT

CME IMPACT

X

 

 
                 
Today`s RSGA/ USAF - report on solar activity > IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M1 event observed at 06/1709Z from Region 2157 (S14E44). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Sep, 08 Sep, 09 Sep).  
         

 

 

     

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS INVOLVED IN MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITIES, CMEs OR SEPS ( other active regions are not posted)

EARTH DIRECTED CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

CLICK HERE FOR LATEST EARTH DIRECTED CMES AND SEP EVENTS (archives)  

STATUS :

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

       

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

 

(SUNSPOTS AFTER 24 UTC)

LONGITUDE next 24 h.

LATITUDE

CLASS/ CONF.*

MAJOR ACTIVITIES:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

EXP. I. MPACT SIZE:

 
  12157 60° E 13° S DHC/ EKC          
 
  12158 68° E 14° N CKO/ DKC          
 

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

            ---
 
solen/info/ active regions>
           
             
 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 
NUMBER POSITION*: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING MAG &remarks  
CH 634 CENTRAL/ NORTH GROWING   20140905- 06    
             
             
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

 
ABBREVIATIONS>
NORTH/ SOUTH POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP/ SP CH- EXT)
UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH
RECURR.= RECURRENT
T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL
 

 

 

               
INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX:
           
 
                     

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT : LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:    
PROTON FLUX INCREASED

RISING AFTER201408021/ o8 UTC and 05/ after 00 UTC

ELECTRON FLUX BACK to NORMAL

slight rise after 20140612/ after 10 UTC

   
               
BEGIN/ END:  

 

 

BEGIN/ END:    

 

 

   
   
ACE ( Advanced Composition Explorer) is on and L 1 orbit at the edge between solar and geomagnetic field and measures the intensity and composition of interplanetary solar winds
 
 

 

 

 

           

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

                 

STATUS:

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment /

GOES integral ELECTRON FLUX- past 3 days* proton flux- past 3 days  

QUIET

 

UNSETTLED

 
ACTIVE  
MINOR STORM  

MAJOR STORM

 
HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS  
CME IMPACT/ EFFECTS  
 
 
* see also report below!
 
USAF report on geophysical activity for previous day:>>        
* graph only during significant events
 
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 430 km/s at 06/2049Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 06/1531Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 06/0512Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9 pfu at 06/0740Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 286 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (07 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (08 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (09 Sep). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (07 Sep), are likely to cross threshold on day two (08 Sep) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (09 Sep).
     
                       
                     
GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -09 nT (USAF) NEUTRAL NORTHWARD + 11 nT (USAF) The Bz component is the value, the geomagnetic field density fluctuates /shifts in North/ South direction such as during CME impacts  
EFFECTIVE PROTONS  

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

           
new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report and report that represents the highest N/ S amplitude of that day    
 

 

 

 

 

 

                 

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE IMPACTS AND SPACE WEATHER ALERTS ( NOAA):

         
INTEGRAL PARTICLE FLUX:   < NOAA ALERTS >

GEOMAGNETIC STORMS AND RADIATION ALERTS ( NOAA):

 
PARTICLE TYPE:

20140905

20140906

20140907

20140906

20140907

SOLAR ALERTS/ INFLUENCES

 

> 10 MeV PROTON FLUX

> 0.1 pfu. < 1,2 pfu.

> 0.1 pfu. < 1,2 pfu.

+/- 0.1 pfu.

NONE

NONE

X RAY > M 5(FLARE ACTIVITY)

 
> 100 MeV PROTON FLUX back to normal back to normal back to normal   NONE TYPE II/ IV TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION  
PARTICLE TYPE:

20140905

20140906

20140907

NONE

NONE

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

 

>0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>1.000 < 25.000 pfu (+) >4.500< 30.000 pfu (+) dropping after new sEP  

G1 (expected)

NONE

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

 

>2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>100< 450 (-) >220 > 750 () rising  
x ray alerts are peaks in solar x ray emissions those occure during flare activities )
 
NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA (3) NO CURRENT DATA UNKNOWN  
TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS are typical indicators for Coronal Mass Ejections ( CME)
 
         
10 cm RADIO BURSTS are typical indicators for STRONGER ERUPTIONS- esp SEPs
 
^remark: orange background means: effect is latent or pending
 
treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu
(1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu
 
         
    < NOAA ALERTS >

CME IMPACTS / SUFDDEN IMPULSE ( NOAA):

 
       

 

NOAA/ SUDDEN IMPULSE

EARTH IMPACT ON

SOLAR EVENT :

TYPE OF RELATED SOLAR FLARE OR ACTIVITY

 
       

20140906/ 25: 24 UTC

20140904

LARGE FILAMENT ERUPTION ON NORTHERN SOLAR HEMISPHERE

 
         
                       
                       
alt
 
 

 

 

 

 

 

                 

LATEST AND CURRENTLY ACTIVE SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS (SEP)

             

 

 

       
         
         
previous alert reports/ this month

 

     

 

 

               

2014

MONTH

SEPTEMBER

DAY:

01

< date refers to available event data and summaries

click here for previous days reports  

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE IMPACTS AND SPACE WEATHER ALERTS ( NOAA):

           
INTEGRAL PARTICLE FLUX:   NOAA REPPORT NOAA REPPORT          
PARTICLE TYPE:

20140901

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

NEXT DAYS VALUES

         

> 10 MeV PROTON FLUX

               
> 100 MeV PROTON FLUX                  
PARTICLE TYPE:

20140901

PREVIOUS DAY`S VALUES ( pfu)

TODAY:(2)

         

>0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

                 

>2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

                 
NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA (3) NO CURRENT DATA UNKNOWN            
                   
^remark: orange background means: effect is latent or pending
 
treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu
         
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
     

 

 

               

2014

MONTH

SEPTEMBER

DAY:

01

< date refers to available event data and summaries

click here for previous days reports  
NOAA REPORT

PREVIOUS GEOMAGNETIC STORMS AND RADIATION ALERTS ( NOAA):

             

DATE:

PAST 24 h

SOLAR ALERTS/ INFLUENCES

             

NONE

NONE

X RAY > M 5(FLARE ACTIVITY)

             
20140901 NONE TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION              

NONE

NONE

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

             

G1 (expected)

NONE

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

             
 
x ray alerts are peaks in solar x ray emissions those occure during flare activities )
             
 
TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS are typical indicators for Coronal Mass Ejections ( CME)
             
 
10 cm RADIO BURSTS are typical indicators for STRONGER ERUPTIONS- esp SEPs
             
 
(1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu
             
                       
                 
 

CME IMPACTS / SUFDDEN IMPULSE ( NOAA):

             
 

EARTH IMPACT ON

SOLAR EVENT :

TYPE OF RELATED SOLAR FLARE OR ACTIVITY

             
 

20140906/ 25: 24 UTC

20140904

LARGE FILAMENT ERUPTION ON NORTHERN SOLAR HEMISPHERE

             
                 
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
   

 

 

 

 

       
click here for: SIGNIFICANT SOLAR EVENTS IN SEPTEMBER 2014 ( earth directed CMEs, SEPs, satellite images and data)
       
WEEKLY SATELLITE REVIEW OF SOLAR ACTIVITIES (AR, flares, CMEs, SEPs)
   
     
LAST MAJOR SOLAR EVENT/ EVOLUTION

SEPTEMBER 2014

                 
   
LOGS:                    
DATE and TIME: AR/images REPORT>

   
IMAGES:
PLOTS and OTHER:
 
20140901/ 17:45 UTC                    

CME (DATE/ TIME >>)

20140910/ 17:45 UTC ERUPTION TYPE: X 1 flare at 17:45 uTC FULLY HALO CME estimated CME arrrival: 20140912      
 
(01) SDO/ AIA (02) SOHO/ LASCO C3 (02) SOHO/ LASCO C3 (03) STEREO( Ahead (05) SDO/ AIA NASA/ Dl RAP- PROTON AND X_RAY IMPACTS (07) SDO/ AIA GOES PROTON flux (1) GOES X-RAY flux (1) SOLAR CME/ SEP EVENT LOG :  
       

SEP (DATE AND TIME of SOLAR EVENT

 

20140910/ 19:03 (NOAA*)

 
TRACKING NR.:  
   
ACTIVE REGION:  
AR 12158.  
SUN COORDINATES:
  20140910/ 19:54 UTC 20140911/ 00:30 UTC         PROTON IMPACT: after 21 UTC   02° E- 16° N  
               
* SEP eruption time= time of 10 cm RADIO BURST
 
DATE and TIME: AR/images REPORT>

   
IMAGES:
PLOTS and OTHER:
 
20140901/ 18:59 UTC                    

CME (DATE/ TIME >>)

  ERUPTION TYPE:            
 
(01) SDO/ AIA (02) SOHO/ LASCO C3 (03) STEREO( Ahead (04) SDO/ AIA (05) SDO/ AIA NASA/ Dl RAP- PROTON AND X_RAY IMPACTS (07) SDO/ AIA GOES PROTON flux (1) GOES X-RAY flux (1) SOLAR SEP EVENT LOG :  
   

SEP (DATE AND TIME of SOLAR EVENT

 
20140901/prior to 11: 54?  
TRACKING NR.:  
   
ACTIVE REGION:  
NORTH POLAR SOLAR REGION  
SUN COORDINATES:
20140901/ 18:59 UTC (SEP) 20140901/ 12:42 20140901/ 10:51 UTC 20140902/ 08:36 UTC 20140901/ 11:54 UTC Proton impact on NASA D-RAP (20140902/ 23UTC)          
                   
     
 

 

 

 

       
SOLAR SEPS ARTICLE EVENTS: ACCELERATED PROTONS/ ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS IN SEPTEMBER 2014 ( satellite images and data)  
SEP EVENT/ event logs this log represents the latest event evolution of terrestrial SEP impacts- earlier events are archived here. NASA/ D-RAP-REAL TIME global (heat) impact of solar protons and x-rays  
 
 

ACTIVE SOLAR SEP/ LOG

latest significant SEP >> 201408910/ after 18 UTC MAJOR > 10 pfu. CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE PARTICLES >> PHASE I (PROTONS) PHASE II (> 10 MeV ELECTRONS)
PHASE III (DISCHARGE)
 
previous, accumulated SEPs >> 20140825/ 18 UTC 20140405/ 12 UTC 20140227 ( X 1.2)    
                   

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : CURRENT STATE::    
SEP event > 10 MeV PROTON EMISSION /20140910/ after 11UTC 201409010/ 18:15 UTC 20140914/ 09 UTC > 1 < 100 pfu.        
                     
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS ACTIVITY/ BEGIN: END: LATEST VALUES: PEAK VALUES: reaching threshold on >    
INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold = E > 1.000 pfu)
20140922/ 10:30 ongoing     exceeding 1.000 pfu on 20141001    
                     

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : CURRENT STATE::    
SEP event > 10 MeV PROTON EMISSION AR 12151/20140901/ after 11UTC 20140901/ after 21 UTC ongoing > 1 < 10 pfu. very low ( 1.000- 3000 km/ s first event in recored with unusually extreme slow protons    
                     
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS ACTIVITY/ BEGIN: END: LATEST VALUES: PEAK VALUES: reaching threshold on >    
INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold = E > 1.000 pfu)
20140901 ongoing > 10 MeV ELectrons Y 1.000 pfu fluctuating first time that proton and electrons both exceed treshold levels- interrupted by new SEP on 20140910    
                     

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : CURRENT STATE::    
SEP event > 10 MeV PROTON EMISSION not evaluated yet 20140825/ after 18 UTC 20140827( 00 UTC low (+/- 1 pfu. ( 10 x)   electron breakdown    
                     
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS ACTIVITY/ BEGIN: END: LATEST VALUES: PEAK VALUES: reaching threshold on >    
INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold = E > 1.000 pfu)
interrupted by new SEP latent ---- > 1.000 pfu. 20140831    
                     
 

 

 

   
PREVIOUS SOLAR SEPS AND SEP SERIALS, those are still active ( effective and interfer/ accumulate ):
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS ACTIVITY/ BEGIN: END: LATEST VALUES: PEAK VALUES: reaching threshold on >
 
INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold = E > 1.000 pfu)
20140511/ 11 UTC repeatedly interupted (by new proton events NEW INCREASE ON 20160802      
INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold = E > 1.000 pfu)
20140511/ 11 UTC repeatedly interupted (by new proton events NEW INCREASE ON 20160717      
INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold = E > 1.000 pfu)
20140511/ 11 UTC repeatedly interupted (by new proton events NEW INCREASE ON 20160618      
INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold = E > 1.000 pfu)
20140423/ 17 UTC 20140429/00UTC knocked down by protons
20140429/ 00 UTC. E flux was knocked bylate proton activity (SEP/ 20140418)
20140425/ 13 UTC > 1.000 pfu

(20140425/ 13 UTC

 
INTEGRAL>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)
(20140421/ 15 UTC rising
20140426/ 15 UTC > 100.000 pfu
---

(20140421/ 15 UTC

 

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : CURRENT STATE::  
SEP event > 10 MeV PROTON EMISSION 20140418/ 13:19 UTC: M 7.8 LDE flare in AR 12036 20140507/ 19 UTC 20140711 low ( > 01. < 0.8 pfu)   electron breakdown  
SEP event > 10 MeV PROTON EMISSION 20140418/ 13:19 UTC: M 7.8 LDE flare in AR 12036 20140418/ after 13 UTC 201404210/ 09 UTC > about 60 pfu. near the speed of light 20140430: protons appproached again from polar Earth orbit-  
             

meaning of background colors>

yellow= this particles are currently active/ dominant red= strong event        
} orange background = ACTIVE electrons/ but their effectivity is PENDING OR INTERFERED BY PROTONS/ or> PROTONS are still too fast to envolve significant effects
       
         
         
 

 

 

 
CURRENT SEP/ PROTON EFFECTS May 23- 2014: Protons- particulary from the high speed SEP on APR 18. partic. also from minor recent solar eruptions (AR 12071) are still active in the geomagnetic field with an increase of magmatic activities at the same time. At 22 UTC a sudden increase of electron density likely marked the end of the effectivity these protons had in the geomagneticmfield over the last days and weeks  
ELECTRON EFFECTS>

20140610: integral electrons flux signficantly began to rise and might reach tresholds soon in the coming days. The increase followed a strong depression of the electron flux by former SEP and solar protons effects and indicate that these protons effects those lasted for more than 1 month are over now. hot spot activities have again dcreased yet in the last weeks The electron accumulation now will bring again high temperatures and droughts to the Northern hemisphere, as welll as sudden tornadoes, thunderstorms . I am not sure, how the high tension of the integral electron fluxmight induce cururents into ships on high seas power grids and other electric devices but several servers ship incidents those occured during electron accumulations in the greomag field suggest that ea. are capable for.

The current state of particles within the geomag. field is after quite a dozen part. accumulating SEPs since autum 2013 is rather confusing and data plots dont`t allow exact results.

might persist for several weeks now after those these electrons will finally discharge. This last SEP phase expected in about 3 weeks sometime end of June 2014 ( if no further solar SEPs occures) with cooling down of and contraction effects on the affected tectonic plates those likely finally will trigger strong and CATASTROPHIC earthquakes with magnitudes above M 9!!

20140607: The integral electron flux dropped again into negative values and continued so since JUne 03. The source of the disturbance are likely protons still active either from previous events or from recent solar protons emissions into interplanetary space

20140523/ 22 UTC There was a sudden increase of the integral electron flux after 22 UTC. There was no similar related event found on ACE data , thus the increase seems not to be related to a solar event, but rather marks the end of the effectivity , solar protons had on the geomagnetic field during the last days and weeks

20140523: During the second half of May 2014 , electrons were first rising as expected following the strong high speed SEP on April 18 ( with protons almost at the speed of light) . After May 17, the electron energy was again neutralized by those still active and after May 23 also by newly incoming protons ( activities in AR 12071) and fell into minus values, what does not mean, that these electrons would lose their cinetic energy by that . They rather get compressed and electrically neutralised by protons circulating with the field lines , what at least temporarely hampers their ability to cause thunderstorms and strong tornadoes or induced currents.

Temperature anomalies around the Northern pole continue since end of 2013 and brought again climatical extremes to the medium latitudes.

 
orange background >means: The electron effects of the last SEO were overlapsed by new SEP eventand currently deactivated or: HIGH SPEED SEP. Protons are still to fastto envolve significant effects  
SEP EVENT HISTORY :
   
20140418/
13:19 UTC
complex nested solar region AR 12036 (35- 37 produced and M 7,.8 LDE flare peaking with a CME at 13:19 UTC. The event was associated with a medium strong SEP. First Protons arrived soon after 13 uTC- thus were accelerated near to the speed of light,due to the fact , that the eruption took place near the central solar meridian and the proton speed is highest radially to the eruption center. means, that some proton effects such as hot spot activities will delay resp takle place slowly
 
20140413- 16
 
The integral Electron flux began to increase after strongly been compressed by active protons. (20140415) Integral electron flux is expected to exceed treshold of 1.000 pfu on 20140416
 
20140405
after 12 UTC
Proton flux slightly increased to max 1.0 pfu after solar event
 
20140325
08 UTC
Integral,proton flux rose after CME event on 20140324 to values up to 1 pfu.
 
20140317
 
Integral proton flux has decreased to normal values after March 07. But the high amount of protons those impacted during this long lasting proton storm ist still effective with heat in the earth body and mantle .Hot spot activities are still present on the Canary islands. The proton influence also still knocks down the integral electron flux to zero and even into negative values. There is a slight recovery of the electron since March 17 . Values will further increase and exceed 100 pfu at any time in about 1 or two weeks ( SEP phase II) , if no new SEP occures.
 
     
20140228
 
Integral Proton flux increased further on February 28 and reached 100 pfu early in the morning. I have not reviewed the solar events yet. but protons storms/ eruptions are what I call " the invisible eruption"
 
                       
                       
 

 

 

   
                       
         
 

 

 

 

 
EXPERIMENTAL FORECAST FOR CME & SEP EVENTS: VOLCANISM EARTHQUAKES FORECAST FOR REGIONS- CLIMATICAL ANOMALIES, GLACIAL MELTDOWN METHANHYDRATES - ANIMALS STRANGE BEHAVIOURS
 

 

 

click here to find previous/ archived reports of this month    
 

 

 

 

 
SPECIAL REPORTS: FREAKY LIGHTENINGS (June 2014)   find more on RT            

 

 

 

     

 

 

VARIOUS:

 

 
20140905/ Volcano Eruption in Papua New Guinea ( September 2014:) Aerial Iceland volcano footage: Lava fountains, huge smoke clouds

 

 

 

 
                       
                       

data for this reports and forecasts are eclusively taken by reliable sources such as NASA, NOAA and others.

 

all forecasts are without guarantee! Alle Vorhersagen sind ohne Gewähr!

provided by:

alien-homepage.de
Impressum/contact

 

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APPENDIX:

 

notices on this page and its development

changes 2014:

July 2014: note: as the solar sun spot activity is decreasing now, major events will get less at least until May June 2014 .Therefor, this project is also limited now to basic updates. In July 2014 I decided to update this page only after significant event and changes and to turn this page into an monthly page that will cover significant events and can be archived then in that form.

January 25- 2014:

2013, after 2 years after the second major> M 9 Earthquake had taken place within on decade and after two years of statistic evaluation and comparation of solar and terestrial data, it became clear , that socalled SEPS would be the solar feature I was looking , being that solar feature, that indeed can even have strongest related and signiciant geophysical effects.

Now in early 2014, the peak off the sun spots cycle seems to be over and related activity visibly have decreased . I dont expect many stronger and significant solar events for the next half year.

Recently I decided, to close the ongoing solar and terrestrial documentary at this point in this form , as it was made until now., whith complete data and event evaluationas as its required for any scientific work . This I did to get this project to a point, that its results would be available and evaluable for further report and can be also a basic for further scientics research

Nevertheless as observations and evaluations have shown , that esp. the socalled SEPs ,this documentary has focussed on, as being the strongest and most geoeffective known type of solar event) do happen MOST frequently during the solar max, but are als present in the same strength all 11 years in between but just in lower number.

So I will continue to watch over all these solar data and event and try to provide a full report and complete coverage in time if any furthe major event should take place ..

so the solar teerrestrial blog will be continued in another simplified and limited form:

 

H. Hummel Munich/ Germany