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. open source earthquake forecast project - Start - since May 2011- daily updated
ws recommended: install Google toolbar with integrated translator click here for my archive with earth directed CMEs and SEPs 2014
background img.: WIKIPEDIA/ Commons/ Aurora Borealis Poster                

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last updated on:
2013
OCTOBER 26 2013
             
JULY- 10- 2013- I am busy ! - TODAY`S update will be late today likely in the afternoon!!
   
DATE:
15.02.2014
click here to get to the central project page "SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG" alien-homepage.de/

 

24th 11 YEAR SUN SPOT CYCLE-

MAXIMUM ACTIVITY IN 2012/ 13/ ff.

According to NASA, this 24th. 11 year sun spot cycle has probably a " twin peak"- the second in 2015. This project therefore will be prolongued.

SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG / CMEs and SEPs in 2013

research and documentary of Solar activities (CME= Coronal Mass Ejections) with coincident/ related terrestrial effects such as : ^SoHO - LASCO C3
VOLCANO ERUPTIONS- EARTHQUAKES- STORMS- RAPIDE (PERMAICE) MELTDOWNS- METHANHYDRATES- INDUCED CURRENTS (TECH) - WHALE BEACHINGS- OTHER...

note: at the moment, this archive only contains CME and SAP reports from 2013. I hopefully will find time and patience in 2014 to collect all CME event reports to this page here.

Until this work is not done: to find all previous CME reports, check out my archived solar and terrestrial blog reports (collected solara ctivities: : since 2010):

 

<< click on tabs to open and close collapsible panel with project related informations >>

   
 
find all completed solar and terrestrial blogs from 2010- 2013 ff. at: alien-homepage.de. ARCHIVES/ central access >

EXTERNAL AND INTERNAL SOURCES RELATED TO THIS PROJECT:

 

ESSENTIAL SOURCES ON SOLAR ACTIVITIES; Satellite Real Time images and data plots, weblinks etc....click here to expand and close to read all..
SECTION: LATEST INFORMATION ON SOLAR ACTIVITIES EVENT RELATED INTERPLANETARY & GEOMAGNETIC DATA PLOTS IMAGES OR VIDEO SOURCES:
(1) SOLAR REAL TIME / CURRENT SATELLITE DATA AND EVENTS  

 

 

       

REAL TIME images links for current views on the sun surface- click to enlarge

             

HOW SOLAR ACTIVITY REPORTS ARE COMMONLY MADE:

SOLAR (NEAR) REAL TIME images as provided by satellites such as SDO, STEREO and SoHO are the first main source on Solar activity data: Various telescopes imaging different levels of frequencies can make sun spots, active regions visoiblöe as well as coronal holes and solar eruptions: solar prominences, flares and associated CMEs ( one exception are proton emissions those remain invisible on any usal imagery. Protons emissions and storms can be measured withe certain instruments instead ( GOES)

Second step is the interplanetary space and solar magnetic field . The Advanced Composition Explorer ( ACE) is "situated" on an geosynchronous orbit outside the geomagnetic field . This satellite has only measurement instruments onboard those deliver various data about the composition of the solar wind. Solar winds blow and circulate regularly through the interplanatary space . Coronal mass ejections and other extraordinary solar events eruptions throw large amounts of solar matter into the interplanetary space . ACE can deliver first data , how strong a possibly earth directed CME might be 1 - 2 days before those CMEs impact and answer the first primary question associated to any CME: Has the main CMEa positive or negative "POLARITY "-( =AN ESPECIAL - PROTON or ELECTRON charge)? means: is the incoming CME NEUTRAL, has it higher accelerated PROTONs or ELECTRONS. THis first question (which one of the two antagonists- the proton or electrons arrives first) determines whether a CME can fully impact into the geomagnetic field or almost NOT AT ALL!

Last not least, in the third step, the GEOSTATIONARY GOES SATELLITES measure what INDEED IMPACTS INTO THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD, basic for all space weather forecasts and forceasts as this one on my page, how strong EARTH DIRECTED CMES might unfluence nature and human civilisation!

-Go to "SOLAR CONTROL CENTER to find out more about these solar observatories or click on the many links on this page to get fisst hand informations!-

SOLAR REAL TIME SAT IMAGES : note also: SDO, SOHO C3 and STEREO (360° VIEW°) REAL TIME IMAGES ON TOP OF THAT PAGE! VARIOUS SOURCES:
GOES / CORONAL HOLES: SoHO/ L2 REAL TIME SDO/ AIA- REAL TIME ACTIVE REGIONS TODAY:
(1) STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) SoHO/ LASCO C 2 (3) SDO /AIA-comp (4) SDO/ HMI
SOLAR REAL TIME SAT PLOTS     RECENT SOLAR ACTIVITY ( by solen.info):
INTERPLANETARY ( SOLAR MAGN FIELD        
ACE/ INTERPLANETARY PROTONS ACE/ INTERPLANETARY ELECTRONS MOSCOW/ cosmic rays- NEUTRON FLUX: SoHO / REAL TIME SOLAR WINDS
^ACE/ EPAMp 7 days plot ^ACE/ EPAMe 7 days plot  
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:    
NOAA PLOTS / PROTONS NOAA/ 3 days geomagnetic electron flux Aurora borealis INTERPLANETARY SOLAR WIND GEOMAGNETIC FIELD (all)
  ACE / ADVANCED COMPOSITION EXPLORER GOES (GEOSTATIONARY OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL SATELLITES)
ACE- INTERPLANETARY SOLAR WIND GOEShp/ Geomag
  GOES/ X-RAY FLUX
ACE/SIS: PROTONS GOES/ ELECTRONS
MOSCOW/ NEUTRONS GOES/ PROTON FLUX
   
       

VARIOUS EXTERNAL SOURCES (CME EVOLUTION )

   

NASA/ISWA/animation of interplanetary CME evolution a.m.o.:

 

 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
     

PROTON EVENTS (SAP/ SEP)

the Earth`s geomagnetic field electrons might defend the Earth even against CMEs from a X 10 flare, what poses the likely only danger , is the attack "from the other side" know as "protons events"

about:

ABOUT: SOLAR PROTON EMISSIONS (proton flares or storms etc. ) ARE RARE EVENTS . But- differently to the mostly of negative charged (electrons) CMEs , PROTON CMEs effect (finally by associated energetic events) until deep into the ground and the Earth`s interior. Proton emissions impact fully into the (negatively charged) geomagnetic field by their positive electric charge and add a positive component to it, what makes the geomag. field TEMPORARELY then also vulnerable especially for following negatively charged CMEs . The protons themselves have paradox effects: first they swallow many electrons (likely reacting with them to neutrons what causes first a "geomagnetic depression" with lower field density (lessactive, free electrons) and paradox ANTIENERGETIC effects (best describable as the "calm prior to the storm" ) .. read more in text box above

TERRESTRIAL/ ATMOSPHERIC ( MAINLY SEP) IMPACTS:

       
NASA/ NOAA: D-RAP Global (1 dB ABS) IMPACT OF SOLAR PROTONS AND X- RAYS     Magn complexity/ particle acceleration

<< Global D-Region Absorption Prediction Documentation:

Long-range communications using high frequency (HF) radio waves (3 - 30 MHz) depend on reflection of the signals in the ionosphere. Radio waves are typically reflected near the peak of the F2 layer (~300 km altitude), but along the path to the F2 peak and back the radio wave signal suffers attenuation due to absorption by the intervening ionosphere.

Absorption is the process by which the energy of radio waves is converted into heat and electromagnetic (EM) noise through interactions between the radio wave, ionospheric electrons, and the neutral atmosphere (for a more extensive description of the absorption process see Davies, 1990). Most of the absorption occurs in the ionospheric D region (50–90 km altitude) where the product of the electron density and the electron-neutral collision frequency attains a maximum...

The precipitation of protons (as well as other ions) into the earth’s atmosphere during the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events can also create significant enhancements of ionospheric electron densities in the D region. Solar protons with energies between 1 to 200 MeV are primarily responsible for most of ionization of the D region and, consequently, for the ionospheric absorption of HF radio waves. Because of shielding of the earth by its magnetic field SEPs find easy access to the atmosphere only in high latitude regions around the earth’s geomagnetic poles. Such occurrences are therefore termed Polar Cap Absorption (PCA) events....read more...

                       
                       
                       
(INTERNAL) EARTHQUAKE AND GLOBAL VOLCANO ACTIVITIES (volcano maps, plots)

INTERACTIVE REGIONAL VOLCANO MAPS by: alien-homepage.de

all volcanoes worldwide, weekly updated global activity status ( GVP) with webcams and many informations!

 

 
NORTHERN AMERICA Central America, Mexico and Caribic South America- Northern part

South America- Southern part

 

Africa and Arabic peninsula

 

Europe, Western Asia Kamchatka peninsula, Aleutian islands

Indonesia and Philippines

Japan, Mariana Islands- Kyril islands

S- W-Pacific region/ Australia

 
 
click here, to get to an interactive GLOBAL volcano map with names and labels  

EARTHQUAKE STATISTICS 2013 : (CURRENT MONTH)

 
 
" EARTHQUAKE STATISTICS" ( 2013)_ COMBINED STATISTICAL PLOT WITH STRONGEST EARTHQUAKES. EQ FREQUENCIES AND SOLAR ACTIVITY  
 
CLICK HERE FOR INTERNATIONAL MEDIA AND NEWS SOURCES & OTHER EXTERNAL LINKS- DAILY NEWS FROM WHERE IT HAPPENS!

NEWS CHANNELS:

( collecting of recommendable international news channels is still ongoing...): Note: This list is dedicated to get latest informations directly from regional news channels and sources all over the world . Alien-homepage does not take any responsibility for contents of websites posted on this list nor for their liability

 

AUSTRALIA, INDONESIA, PHILIPPINES

AFRICA

ASIA

AMERICA

EUROPE:

 
THE HERALD SUN / AUSTRALIA africareview.com   MSNBC / US BBC.com  
globalpost.       www.euronews.com/  

BY COUNTRIES:

 

EUROPE:

ICELAND REVIEW ONLINE DER SPIEGEL ONLINE ( Germany) euronews.com/ englishrussia (Russia)  
  icenews.is (ICELAND)        

 

scotsman.com

ruvr.ru (Russia)

     

AUSTRALIA REGION:

THE HERALD SUN / AUSTRALIA .radioaustralianews.net.au (FIJI ISLANDS): fijivillage.com  

 

stuff.co.nz (NEW ZEALAND) solomontimes.com (SALOMON ISLANDS) fijitimes.com    

NORTHERN AMERICA

CNN. com TIME.com /SCIENCE (SCIENTIFIC) tgdaily.com  

 

UNITED PRESS INTERNATIONAL ABC- news GLOBAL NEWS (CANADA) winnipegfreepress.com  
  mlive.com/news        

 

washingtonpost.com channel6newsonline.com FAIRBANKS/ ALASKA/ newsminer.com alaskadispatch.com  

CENTRAL AMERICA>

INSIDE COSTA RICA ticotimes.net ( COSTA RICA) costaricantimes aztecanoticias.com ( MEXICO( Spanish language)  
  dominicantoday.com (Dominican Republik)        

SOUTHERN AMERICA>

peruthisweek (PERU) .andina.com (PERU)      

PACIFIC

bigislandvideonews (Hawaii)

       

AFRICA

www.aps.dz (ALGERIA) allafrica.com standardmedia.co.ke (KENIA) ZIMBABWE (Voice of America)  
        .thezimbabwean.co.uk  

> ARABIA

ARABIC EMIRATES omanobserver.om www.iranwpd.co (IRAN) IRAN/ ENGLISH presstv.ir/  

ASIA

Wijeya Newspapers Ltd.Colombo. Sri Lanka philippinenews.com english.ntdtv.com (CHINA) THE BORNEO POST- ONLINE  
  Thejakartapost.com (INDONESIA) philstar.com/(PHILIPPINES) zeenews.india.com (INDIA)

chinadaily.com.cn/ (China)

 
  pattayamail.com (Thailand) visayandailystar.com (PHIL.)

indianexpress.com ( INDIA)

mdn.mainichi.jp (JAPAN)  
  vietnamnet.vn (VIETAM) shanghaidaily.com (CHINA) thehindu.com blogs.wsj.com (JAPAN)  
  fukushima-diary.com (best news on Japan`s meltdown!) gmanetwork (PHILIPPINES) punemirror ( NORTHERN INDIA) focustaiwan (TAIWAN)  
      greaterkashmir.com    

ALL REGIONS>

REUTERS.COM wunderground.com/tropical storms Earth Observatory( NASA.    
  http://your-story.org        
           
GLÖBAL WATCH > thewatchers.adorraeli.com earthquake-report.com      
VARIOUS & RELATED SCIENTIFIC CHANNELS > spaceweather.com treehugger.com VOLCANO DISCOVERY EARTH SKY. ORG  
  ACCU WEATHER. COM wired.com/wired science WUNDERGROUND.com Nationalgeographic  
  science.nasa.gov spaceweather.com wired.com phys.org  
ORGANISATIONS NASA/earthobservatory http://www.greenpeace.de/   http://foodwatch.com.au/  
DIVERSE> 2012 Mysterious Mass Animal Death List (abovetopsecret.com) poleshift.ning.com naturalnews.com (food etc)  
  Volcano Webcams on wiredscience.com eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov Polar Science Center  
LAST NOTICES AND EVENTS:   (internal) latest CME global impact map-(click on image to enlarge it )^^

SEVERAL SAPS HAD ACCUMULATED THEIR ENERGIES( SINCE MARCH 2013) . THE SAP RELATED ELECTRON ACTIVITY GRADUALLY BEGAN TO DECREASE AFTER JULY 30 AND DROPPED FIRST TIME SINCE MONTH BELOW 100 pfu. on AUGUST 12- 2013. AUG 15: The cooling down process of tectonic plates affected by the previous SAPs in 2013 was disturbed and finally interupted by a new INCREASE IN GEOEFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after serial of CMEsass. with an HSS on AUGUST 15.

NEW SOLAR SAP ("solar accelerated protons") EVENT ON AUGUST 17-. 2013!

ON AUGUST 17/ 18:32 UTCanother SOLAR SAP (the 6. larger event in 2013) shook the planetary & geomag environment associated with a major M 3 flare from large AR 11818, that was FULLY HALO (Earth directed) on SoHO imagery. Introgeomagnetic PROTON flux increased after 21 UTC. All longterm geomagnetic effects - as typical for SAPs- will start all over again, and accompony us (at least!) throughout August 2013

 

NOTICES/ OBSERVATIONS/ SUMMARIES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY- 2013

NEW SOLAR SAP ("solar accelerated protons") EVENT ON AUGUST 17-. 2013!

ON AUGUST 17/ 18:32 UTC, another SOLAR SAP shook the planetary environment associated with a major M 3 flare from large AR 11818, that was FULLY HALO (Earth directed) on SoHO imagery. ..

AUGUST 15- 2013: Solar Sun Spot activity resumed again after the period of every year`s " midsummer low" lasted longer than in previous years. .

click here to expand register card to read more...

2013- ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS:

NEW SOLAR SAP ("solar accelerated protons") EVENT ON AUGUST 17-. 2013!

SEVERAL SAPS HAD ACCUMULATED THEIR ENERGIES( SINCE MARCH 2013) . THE SAP RELATED ELECTRON ACTIVITY GRADUALLY BEGAN TO DECREASE AFTER JULY 30 AND DROPPED FIRST TIME SINCE MONTH BELOW 100 pfu. on AUGUST 12- 2013. AUG 15: The cooling down process of tectonic plates affected by the previous SAPs in 2013 was disturbed and finally interupted by a new INCREASE IN GEOEFFECTIVE ELECTRONS after serial of CMEs ass. with an HSS on AUGUST 15.

ON AUGUST 17/ 18:32 UTC even another SOLAR SAP shook the planetary environment associated with a major M 3 flare from large AR 11818, that was FULLY HALO (Earth directed) on SoHO imagery. Introgeomagnetic PROTON flux increased aftergeomagnetic effects typical for SAPs will start all over again, and accompony us (at least!) throughout August 2013

NOTICES/ OBSERVATIONS/ SUMMARIES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY- 2013 AUGUST 15- 2013: Solar Sun Spot activity resumed again after the period of every year`s " midsummer low" lasted longer than in previous years. NASA predicted the" all 11 years" flip of the NORTHERN (+) and SOUTHERN(-) magnetic poles to complete in the coming months until winter soltice 201, while - due to recent observations- the expected main eruptive activity ( mainly done by solar electrons) has already shifted to the SOUTHERN hemisphere, while the Northern solar corona is almost calm and inactive.
MAR- 12- 2013 :a new very active group of sun spots AR ( 11692- 95) rotated into sight in the Eastern solar limb.AR 11692 was sprinkling with flares and might produce M class events over the coming 10 days.

FEBRUARY 2013 ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS:

INCREASING NUMBER OF SOLAR PROTON EVENTS?

Protons do not carry or emit energetic particles , thus their source mostly remains invisible on satellite imagery. But- as measurable on specific instruments on ACE and GOES, interplanetary PROTONFLUX began to increase on February 02/ 15 UTC.  This proton increase  peaked on Feb 03, is slowly dropping since then, but was still elavated on Feb 07- 2013. Another slight increase in PROTON FLUX was measured on Feb 07also within the geomag field caused by the arrival of a CME from a seldom proton flare on Feb 08 ( AR 11667) >>

Regarding the low x ray values ( B- C class only( during the latest solar eruptions might easily make believe and lead to the error , that the eruptive activity in our central star is very low. The partial impact of the recent CMEs observed on FEB 06 however was much stronger than the solar eruption had indicated before. Only ACE EPAMp and SIS ata reveal: AR 11667 had produced sveral minor proton flares , those are the strongest type of solar eruptions, though they appear  as rather small  in imageries and x- ray measurements. Protons are invisible for cameras and the free eye and what was visible during of eruption are the initial nuclear reaction  and the electrons activited and emitted with that proton event. Another sudden increase of interplanetary proton even was measured after an unknown unspecific event by ACE EPAMp and SIS on February 08. AR 11667 only produced a minor B 2 flare on February 08 while a LDE flared over 2 days on the backside of the Sun. Several rythmical events were observed on STEREO during these the Sun emitted particles and solar wind pulses in all directions. Interplanetary proton flux began to decrease afterwards and was on Feb 11 almost back to normal levels. Moscow cosmic ray stations that measures Neutron flux , registered an increase in neutrons since January  2013 to highest levels measured in the past two years.beisde. Electron and proton flux always is correlated and the measured values show that these free proton usually combine with free electron to Neutrons already in the planetary medium and impact as neutrons then. Neutrons are energetic particles , those have no charge - as their electron activity is neutralised / surpressed by the proton gravity and cannot escape from the neutron . in other words. Neutrons are particles those store their electron energy like an accumulator . No energetic or paradox effects would be expected by neutrons. However nothing is known yet how neutron might or do effects the Earth environment . What is known is that neutrons integrate in other atoms and alter them first temporarely into isotopes , those later change their element  in terms of the elements periodic system . Best known example is the C 14 ( carbon 14) isotope produced by solar neutron impacts , used for to determine the age of organic substances. C 14 decays in a halflife time of 5,730±40 years to Nitrogen , when the absorbed additional neutron (as it has no proton and electron pair as equivalent) deacys into a proton and electron again. C14 halftime method"

The i ncreasing number of- allthough still minor- proton flares and events observed since January 2013 indicate : the Sun obviously entered a new phase in its 11 year sunspot cycle activity, suggested to peak around March 21- 2013- producing more and more proton flares. The most real AR 11667 produced only proton flares during the past week. Any protons emissions however reduce/ swallow much of the electron and x ray emission of the eruption and give us by their PARADOX EFFECTS by altering measurements, based on electron activity (magnetometers, radiation etc.) easily a false impression of these events, those have therefore carefully to be observed

 

FEB 02- 06/ 07 and 09 / 2013:

Protons do not carry or emit energetic particles , thus their source mostly remains invisible on satellite imagery. But- as measurable on specific instruments on ACE and GOES, interplanetary PROTONFLUX began to increase on February 02/ 15 UTC.  This proton increase  peaked on Feb 03, is slowly dropping since then, but was still elavated on Feb 07- 2013. Another slight increase in PROTON FLUX was measured on Feb 07also within the geomag field caused by the arrival of a seldom proton flare on Feb 08 ( AE 11667) >>

FEBRUARY- 06 2013:

An impulsive C 8 class.(PROTON?) flare took place in AR 11667 on Feb- 06- 2013 after 00: 15 UTC and created an impresssive magnetic arc ( prominence) after 3 UTC to new AR 11699. The associated fast CME was partial- fully halo on SoHo and will arrive appr. on Feb- 08. AR 11699 rotated in at the eastern limb and appears to be the currently most active regions (AR) on the visible Sun disc.

FEBRUARY 10- 2013:

An impressive eruption - was observed on February 09 after 06:11 (4) in the spotted region S 2212 between AR 11667 and AR 11670 accompanied by magnetic arcs and prominences. Interplanetary Proton flux already increased after on February 08, then dropped again . The interplanetary increase of electrons measured shortly before the minor CME arrrived on Feb 11 indicated that this CME has a negative polarity/ charge

 

JANUARY 2013- last observed activity characteristics :

 

An significant increase in solar activity was noticed since begin of 2013. Since the Sun more and more makes "summersets" in activity. Last event images above) was another seldom SOLAR PROTON OUTBREAK "PROTON STORM" that began on Jan- 17 after 00 UTC and is ONGOING. ( the 5fth within the last year). What appears as a malefunction is just a dark matter effect  caused be the proton eruption that obviously began after 18 UTC ( 4) at the Western limb from where it typically ran like a shock wave through and over the entire Sun ( solar proton storm) . I will try to get a video version of the events soon. SOON after the event solar surface activity also inmcreased an unleashed a stronger CME form MINOR spotted AR 11550. Protons flux into the geomagnetic filed increased on January 17- after 00 UTC.(read more and see realted sat- plot below)

From November - December 2012 a new type of solar activity characteristic related to the upcoming 11 year sun spot peak could be observed on satellite imageries:  Coronal Holes- known to be layers out of higher, heaver and denser solar fusion elements pushed upwards to to the solar surface by convection- began to appear dissapear and somertimes reappear in a quicker rate than ever observed before during the last 2 years. This might be related to the 2 solar proton outbbreaks registered in Nov and Dec- 2012.

During winter soltice solar activity parameters were as low as in all previous years, a phenomenon that is rather mysterious. At all, the solar activity parameters ( sun spot number, bg x ray flux) were unusual LOW especially during the year 2012 and did not meet the expectations, scientists had into their giant solar observer program, lounched fo this 11 years cycle peak. Its suggested that two solar acticvity cycles (caused by somewhat still totally unknown! maybe any cosmical influence? ) interfer with one another , the 11 years cycle with another 60 year cycle.

 

 

:

 

 
    MORE ABOUT THIS PROJECT/ PROJECT STATUS:
   
GREAT PROGRESS IN MY EARTHQUAKE FORECAST? ARE ALL THREE MAJOR QUESTIONS RESOLVED! expand/collapse panel to read more

WHAT CAUSES ESP. THE LARGE EARTHQUAKE DISASTERS? Fluctuations in Solar (CME) activity (= energetic output") contributes much to the energetic changes within the earth, necesseary to cause volcanism (when heating up) and earthquakes ( when cooling down again) But only socalled "SEP events" seem to have the power to cause catastrophic events . Evaluation of recent major events however show: All these large Earthquake events ( Sumatra 2004, Japan 2011) were related to prior MAJOR SEPs as all SEPs are followed by stronger quakes and volcanism

WHERE WILL THEY OCCURE? Almost 100 % of examined cases showed, that ALL CME EFFECTS occure exactly on the latitudes ( those also are GEOMAGNETIC FIELD LINE PARALLELS, on which solar wind moves) were prior CMEs ( resp. SEPs) impacted.

WHEN WILL THEY OCCURE ( +/- 1 - 2 days)? Here I think , that I am on the right trace. The main indicator for Earthquakes likely seem to be changes in the electron activity- mainly whene- values are suddenly dropping, ( even if by a proton impact) But this needs more evaluations:.

     
   

CURRENT MAIN RESEARCH FOCUS:

 
ARE SOLAR PROTON STORMS (SAP) RESPONSIBLE FOR MEGAQUAKES/ TSUNAMIS SUCH AS 2004 ( SUMATRA) and 2011 ( JAPAN?)click here to read more (expand and collapse register card)

GENERAL REMARKS TO THE LONG TERM EFFECTS OF SOLAR PROTON EVENTS/ STORMS ( by: alien-homepage.de) :

: Several stronger earthquakes happen regularly immidiately during/ after Proton Storms (those themselves likely are also caused by kinds of solar quakes. Otherwise during that first phase, more exactly: DURING the proton storms when proton flux is elavated- as a typical antienergetic effect Protons have, everything that requires cinetic energies to work such as storms or volcanic activities are rather very low.

 

Entire storms systems as statistics indicate seem to can come to a stillstand by such a proton impact. Other data show that protons can even swallow electrons ( memory charges) from harddiscs as more as if these ar plugged to the grid or connected to the web. and surely proton storms do interrupt all kinds of radio transmissions. After the proton storm itself has decreased regularly an electron storms sets in that last again for some days. During that time, all kind of cinetic effects set in: Mainly sudden thundestorms, and increasing volcano activities preferently those of hot spot volcanoes. Induced currents effecting down to the Earth surface with potential of heavy damage to power grids are seldom, but TYPICALLY OCCURE ESPECIALLY AFTER PROTON EVENTS when the proton and succeeding electron storms( impact reaches certain strength. This phase now last normally not more than 10 days until the affected tectonic plates would cool down again and contract, what leads to the second and final phase with the chance for another STRONG EARTHQUAKES. The described single phase are prolongued amplified or mindered WHEN NEW CME events occure , those might contain more protons or electrons. Its hardly then to forecast but current data show, that by the fact that protons shift the geomagnetic charge temporarely to positive values, that short circuit that lets flow solar energies right through the magnetic field lines (MPI MUnich) into the Earth core, the Earth can likely sum up and even store these energies for a long time ( by forming neutrons) what includes the risk of a concentrated energetic breakouts in different forms.

   
 
IMPORTANT NOTES AND UPDATES ON THIS PAGE : : This page is under steady development and layout may change from time to time. Reports on related events may be added at any time and will be posted to that day`s blog on which these events happened- click here to read more....
IMPORTANT NOTES:
CONTENTS: This page is under steady development and layout may change from time to time. Reports on related events may be added at any time and will be posted to that day`s blog on which these events happened, finally providing good and overseeable evidence that support the projects goal- how solar activities ( esp. resp CMEs) are correlated with terrestrial effects. .( mainly volcanisms storms, and later destructive "friction(/ contraction earth quakes- but also technical reports are added if there might be a coincidence) 
LAYOUT

This blog requires to check much data sometimes and therefore sometimes also much time. LAYOUT will be adjusted to the needs, resp the progress in understanding a make while proceeding this research

ERRORS, Sometimes- esp, if I am busy with other things, it also happens, that I leave quite a few typing or grammatical mistakes ( my native language is German) in the first daily blogs or: I forget to update the one or other section/ field. However: all daily blogs are AT LEAST ONCE revised at that time before I archive them . Doing this, most errors or failures left on this project page will (as I hope) become obvious during this final revision and will be corrected then in the archived reports! Thanks- alien -homepage.de
   
   
                                 
register card CLICK HERE TO OPEN AND CLOSE COLLAPSIBLE PANEL WITH INFORMATION ON LATEST CME EVENTS AND TERRESTRIAL IMPACT ANALYSIS- JULY- DECEMBER 2013
                       
                       
SOLAR CME EVENTS :
             

20131207

CMEs at:

7:39 UTC

ARRIVAL:

DEC 09- 10

POLARITY: ALPHA BETA UNKNOWN      
TRACKING NR.:

46/13

  20131207/ 08:54 UTC     20131207/07:39 UTC GOES / X- RAY:
 
ACTIVE REGION:

11909

    server currently not accessible
 
Earth directed?

partially

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

48° - 62 ° W

18° S

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 
IMPULSIVE FLARE M 1.2/ 1N  
  STEREO "Ahead" COR2 (3) SoHO/ LASCO C 3 (3) SoHO/ LASCO C 3

SDO/ AIA-

     
TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << NOAA SPACE WEATHER ALERTS: NOAA/ X RAY EVENTS: INTERNAL REPORT ASS TO SEP EVENT

 

   
TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION >

     
10 cm RADIO BURST      
           
TODAY`S SOLAR CME EVENTS :
             

20131205

CMEs at:

21:10 UTC

ARRIVAL: DEC 07- 08 POLARITY: ALPHA BETA UNKNOWN      
TRACKING NR.:

45/13

  20131205/ 13:39 UTC 20131205/ 21:54 UTC   20131205/ 21:10 UTC GOES / X- RAY
 
ACTIVE REGION:

11909

server currently vot available
 
Earth directed?

partially

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

20° - 34 ° W

18° S

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 
ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE NONE  
  STEREO "Ahead" COR2 (3) SoHO/ LASCO C 3 (3) SoHO/ LASCO C 3

SDO/ AIA-

     
TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << NOAA SPACE WEATHER ALERTS NOAA/ X RAY EVENTS: INTERNAL REPORT ASS TO SEP EVENT

 

   
TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION >

     
10 cm RADIO BURST      
     

RELATED TERRESTRIAL CME TRACKING REPORT

       

ONGOING CME ARRIVAL

CME/ Nr.:

45/13

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

   

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT. SOLAR CME EVENTS

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

     
DEC- 07- 2013 11909

20° - 34 ° W

18° S

PROMINENCE 20131205/ 21:10 UTC 06 UTC 148 nT      
REMARKS: CMEs/ APPROACHING: 01      
                   

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

 

 

MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS      

> 100 nT

MAIN/ UTC

short impact report:

hz/ polarity:

         
15 UTC- 01 UTC 22- 24 UTC almost neutral USA WEST COAST, INCL. ALASKA
US WESZ COAST CANADA
     
30° W- 15° E 150°- 180° W E   KAMCHATKA, PACIFIC EAST        
 

internal (relative) CME mass value:

               
             
           
                       
                       
                       
                       
                       
               
SOLAR EVENT- NOVEMBER-19 2013 . 11903 [S11E62] produced an impressive and major X 1 LED flare peaking from 10:25 until 10: 42 UTC . The event was associated to a MINOR SEP..First Protons impacted after 12.00 UTC- 1,5 hours after the event with a resulting speed of about 27.700 km/ second., but began to decrease again later on NOV 19 The CME going off from the Southwestern limb moves - as STEREO A imagery shows- pretty much towards the ecliptic plane. Thus the CME might have minor earth directed parts, those would arrive- if- then- sometime on Nov. 21.
 

 

 

 

               
                       
                       
SOLAR CME EVENTS :
             

20131108

CMEs at:

4:26 UTC

ARRIVAL:

 

POLARITY: ALPHA BETA UNKNOWN      
TRACKING NR.:

44/13

  20131108/ 06:24 UTC 20131108/ 08:30 20131108/ 04:25 UTC 20131108/ 04:40 UTC      
ACTIVE REGION:

11890

     
Earth directed?

partial halo?

   

SUN COORDINATES:

   

10° E- 04 ° W

11° S

   

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

   
IMPULSIVE FLARE X1.1/2B    
UNCERTAIN EVENT GOES / X- RAY STEREO "Ahead" COR2 (3) SoHO/ LASCO C 3 SDO/ AIA-

SDO/ AIA-

     
TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << NOAA SPACE WEATHER ALERTS NOAA/ X RAY EVENTS: INTERNAL REPORT ASS TO SEP EVENT

 

   
TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION >

     
10 cm RADIO BURST      
           
                       
                       
SOLAR CME EVENTS :
             

20131103

CMEs at:

05:25 IUTC

ARRIVAL:

 

POLARITY: ALPHA BETA UNKNOWN      
TRACKING NR.:

43/ 13, c

      20131103/ 17:06 UTC 201311203/ 5:25 UTC      
ACTIVE REGION:

118844

         
Earth directed?

FULLY HALO

     

SUN COORDINATES:

     

12° - 26 ° W

12° S

     

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

     
UNCKEAR EVENT M 3      
  GOES / X- RAY   STEREO "Behind" COR2 (3) SoHO/ LASCO C 3

SDO/ AIA-

     
TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << NOAA SPACE WEATHER ALERTS NOAA/ X RAY EVENTS: INTERNAL REPORT ASS TO SEP EVENT

 

   
TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION >

 

     
10 cm RADIO BURST      
 
 
                       
                       
SOLAR CME EVENTS :
               

201302/ 4:44 UTC

CMEs at:

04:44 IUTC

ARRIVAL:

 

POLARITY: ALPHA BETA UNKNOWN  

Abbreviations:

 
TRACKING NR.:

43/ 13, a,b

20131102/ 10:09 UTC   20131102/ 06:10 UTC 20131102/ 06:06 UTC 20131102/ 04:44 UTC    
ACTIVE REGION:

118844

 
SAP = Solar Accelerated Particles/ Protons
 
Earth directed?

FULLY HALO

   

SUN COORDINATES:

   

32° - 46 °W

16° S

   

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

   
PROTON FLARE C 7    
associated with SEP event STEREO "Ahead" COR2   STEREO "Behind" COR2 (3) SoHO/ LASCO C 3

SDO/ AIA-

 
later event ^
 
TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << NOAA SPACE WEATHER ALERTS NOAA/ X RAY EVENTS: INTERNAL REPORT ASS TO SEP EVENT

 

   
TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION

 

     
10 cm RADIO BURST      
 
 
 
RISING: 20131102/ 07 UTC
 
     
                       

 

                   
SOLAR CME EVENT :                  

20131026

CMEs at:

 

ARRIVAL:

appr. on 20131030/ 31

POLARITY: ALPHA BETA UNKNOWN  

SWPC/ global D_RAP- impact of protons and x ray bursts

GOES / X- RAY (nuclear activity/ solar flares)  

TRACKING NR.:

42, d

20131028/ 5:54 UTC 20131028/ 06:55 UTC 20131018/ 06:06 UTC    

 

ACTIVE REGION:

11875

server not accessible  

 

Earth directed?

partial HALO

 

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

66° - 80 ° W

06° N

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

PROTON FLARE X 1  
part of multiple CME events ( CLUSTER) STEREO "Ahead" COR2 STEREO "Behind" COR2 (3) SoHO/ LASCO C 3

SDO/ AIA- comp.

 

 

TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << NOAA SPACE WEATHER ALERTS NOAA/ X RAY EVENTS: INTERNAL REPORT ASS TO SEP EVENT

 

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TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION

 

Abbreviations:

LDE

= Long Duration Event

2013

alien-homepage.de

 

10 cm RADIO BURST    

SAP

= Solar Accelerated Particles/ Protons

       
               
RELATED TERRESTRIAL CME TRACKING REPORT              

ONGOING CME ARRIVAL

CME/ Nr.:

 

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

 

 

MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENTS

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN/ UTC

short impact report:

hz/ polarity:

     
                               
                        E        
REMARKS: CMEs/ APPROACHING: 01    

internal (relative) CME mass value:

     
         
SOLAR CME EVENT ):                  

20131024

CMEs at:

00:42 UTC

ARRIVAL:

appr. on 20131026

POLARITY: ALPHA BETA UNKNOWN  

GOES/ GEOMAG. PROTON FLUX

GOES / X- RAY (nuclear activity/ solar flares)  

TRACKING NR.:

42/13

20131024/ 00: 42 UTC 20131024/ 02:24 UTC 20131024/ 2:30 UTC    

 

ACTIVE REGION:

11877

300  

 

Earth directed?

FULLY HALO

 

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

11° E - 03 ° W

12° S

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

serial of flares

M 9.2  
  SDO/ AIA- comp. (2) STEREO-"AHEAD" (3) SoHO/ LASCO C 2

(4) SoHO/ LASCO C 32

 

 

TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << NOAA SPACE WEATHER ALERTS NOAA/ X RAY EVENTS: INTERNAL REPORT

 

 

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TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION

 

   

Abbreviations:

LDE

= Long Duration Event

2013

alien-homepage.de

 

10 cm RADIO BURST  

 

   

SAP

= Solar Accelerated Particles/ Protons

       
               
RELATED TERRESTRIAL CME TRACKING REPORT              

ONGOING CME ARRIVAL

CME/ Nr.:

 

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

 

 

MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENTS

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN/ UTC

short impact report:

hz/ polarity:

     
                               
                        E        
REMARKS: CMEs/ APPROACHING: 01    

internal (relative) CME mass value:

     
         
TODAY`S SOLAR CME EVENT :                  

20131013

CMEs at:

00. 32 UTC

ARRIVAL:

20131014/15

POLARITY: ALPHA BETA UNKNOWN  

GOES/ GEOMAG. PROTON FLUX

GOES / X- RAY (nuclear activity/ solar flares)  

TRACKING NR.:

41/13

  20131013/ 00:32 UTC 20131012/ 02:12 UTC 20131013/ 09:18 UTC  

 

ACTIVE REGION:

11846

 

 

Earth directed?

partially  

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

17°- 03° E

22° S

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

short impulsive flare and weak CME

M 1.7  
CME appeared rather weak on SoHO im. (1) STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) SDO /AIA-comp (3) SoHO/ LASCO C 2

(4) SoHO/ LASCO C 32

 

 

TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << NOAA SPACE WEATHER ALERTS NOAA/ X RAY EVENTS: INTERNAL REPORT

 

 

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TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION

 

   

Abbreviations:

LDE

= Long Duration Event

2013

alien-homepage.de

 

10 cm RADIO BURST  

 

   

SAP

= Solar Accelerated Particles/ Protons

       
RELATED TERRESTRIAL CME TRACKING REPORT                

ONGOING CME ARRIVAL

CME/ Nr.:

41/13

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

SEASONAL MAIN IMPACT LATITUDES (JUNE):

> 15° S- > 45° N

STRENGTH:    

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENT

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN/ UTC GEOMAGNETIC HZ COMPONENT

- 10 nT

MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  

20131014.

11864

17°- 03° E

22° S

M 1.7 flare

20131013 00:32

05:00 UTC

130 nT  

12:00- 23 :00 UTC

13- 18 UTC IMPACT POLARITY : PROTONS (-) EUROPE ATLANTIC  
REMARKS:       00°- 135° W 15- 90° W E internal (relative) CME mass value CANARIES CENTRAL & SOUTH AMERICA  
MULTIPLE CME EVENTS ( CLUSTERS) AND LATENCY EFFECTS:
 
CMEs/ APPROACHING:
01
 
155
USA WEST
   
         
LATEST SOLAR CME EVENT                  

20130921

CMEs at:

9:29 UTC

ARRIVAL:

20130923- 24

POLARITY: ALPHA BETA UNKNOWN  

GOES/ GEOMAG. PROTON FLUX

GOES / X- RAY (nuclear activity/ solar flares)  

TRACKING NR.:

39/ 13

20130922/ 08:09 UTC 20130921/ 9:29 UTC 20130921/ 10:54 UTC 20130922/ 9:30 UTC  

 

ACTIVE REGION:

near 11850

 

 

Earth directed?

   

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

     

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

LDE filament eruption

strong  
  (1) STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) SDO /AIA-comp (3) SoHO/ LASCO C 3

(4) SoHO/ LASCO C 32

 

 

TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << NOAA SPACE WEATHER ALERTS NOAA/ X RAY EVENTS: INTERNAL REPORT

 

 

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TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION

 

   

Abbreviations:

LDE

= Long Duration Event

2013

alien-homepage.de

 

10 cm RADIO BURST  

 

   

SAP

= Solar Accelerated Particles/ Protons

       
RELATED TERRESTRIAL CME TRACKING REPORT                

ONGOING CME ARRIVAL

CME/ Nr.:

39/13

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

SEASONAL MAIN IMPACT LATITUDES (JUNE):

EQUATOR

STRENGTH: 1-2  

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENT

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN/ UTC GEOMAGNETIC HZ COMPONENT max. - 7 nT MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  

20130923/ 21 UTC

11850

    filament eruptiopn     21 UTC 130 nT   12- 20 UTC 13- 17 UTC IMPACT POLARITY : PROTONS EASTERN ATLANTIC S- AMERICA  
REMARKS:      

00- 120° W

15- 75° W E internal (relatiuve CME mass value WESTERN EUROPE CENTR AMERICA  
MULTIPLE CME EVENTS ( CLUSTERS) AND LATENCY EFFECTS:
 
CMEs/ APPROACHING:
01

allthough the events was rather strange, it was too weak to change the previous Earthquake paramaters created by earlier SEP events in 2013

 
         
                   
SOLAR CME EVENT                  

20130830

CMEs at:

2:29 UTC

ARRIVAL:

20130901- 02

POLARITY: ALPHA BETA UNKNOWN  

GOES/ GEOMAG. PROTON FLUX

GOES / X- RAY (nuclear activity/ solar flares)  

TRACKING NR.:

37/ 13

20130830/ 04:09 UTC 20130830/ 02:29 UTC 20130830/ 05:06    

 

ACTIVE REGION:

11836

   

 

Earth directed?

FULLY HALO  

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

43° - 29 ° E

11 ° N

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

LDE/ FLARE

C 9  
  (1) STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) SDO /AIA-comp (3) SoHO/ LASCO C 2

(4) SoHO/ LASCO C 32

 

 

TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << NOAA SPACE WEATHER ALERTS NOAA/ X RAY EVENTS: INTERNAL REPORT

 

 

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TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION

 

   

Abbreviations:

LDE

= Long Duration Event

2013

alien-homepage.de

 

10 cm RADIO BURST  

 

   

SAP

= Solar Accelerated Particles/ Protons

       
RELATED TERRESTRIAL CME TRACKING REPORT                

ONGOING CME ARRIVAL

CME/ Nr.:

/13

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

SEASONAL MAIN IMPACT LATITUDES (JUNE):

> 15° S- > 45° N

STRENGTH:    

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENT

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN/ UTC GEOMAGNETIC HZ COMPONENT   MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  
APPROACHING...                       IMPACT POLARITY :        
REMARKS:           E internal (relatiuve CME mass value      
MULTIPLE CME EVENTS ( CLUSTERS) AND LATENCY EFFECTS:
 
CMEs/ APPROACHING:
01
 
     
         
                   
SOLAR CME EVENT:                  

20130829

2 CMEs at:

5:26 UTC (21:30)

ARRIVAL:

estimated on AUG 31

POLARITY: ALPHA BETA UNKNOWN  

GOES/ GEOMAG. PROTON FLUX

GOES / X- RAY (nuclear activity/ solar flares)  

TRACKING NR.:

36/ 13

20130829/ 08:54 UTC 20130829/ 10:54 UTC 20130829/ 05:28 UTC 20130829/ 10:30 UTC  

20130829/ 21:30 UTC

 

 

ACTIVE REGION:

11836

   

 

Earth directed?

FULLY HALO  

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

57° - 43 ° E 11 ° N  

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

MINOR PROTON FLARE

C 1  
  (1) STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) SDO /AIA-comp

(4) SoHO/ LASCO C 32

  ^^ second- minor flareon AUG 29 at 21:30 from AR 11834

 

TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << NOAA SPACE WEATHER ALERTS NOAA/ X RAY EVENTS: INTERNAL REPORT

 

 

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TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION

 

   

Abbreviations:

LDE

= Long Duration Event

2013

alien-homepage.de

 

10 cm RADIO BURST  

 

   

SAP

= Solar Accelerated Particles/ Protons

       
RELATED TERRESTRIAL CME TRACKING REPORT              

CME ARRIVAL

CME/ Nr.:

36 /13

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

SEASONAL MAIN IMPACT LATITUDES (JUNE):

> 15° S- > 45° N

STRENGTH:    

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENT

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN/ UTC GEOMAGNETIC HZ COMPONENT   MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  
APPROACHING...                       IMPACT POLARITY :        
REMARKS:           E internal (relatiuve CME mass value      
MULTIPLE CME EVENTS ( CLUSTERS) AND LATENCY EFFECTS:
 
CMEs/ APPROACHING:
01
 
     
         
                   
SOLAR CME EVENT :                  

20130820

CMEs at:

9:30 UTC

ARRIVAL:

 

POLARITY: ALPHA BETA UNKNOWN  

GOES/ GEOMAG. PROTON FLUX

ACE(interplanetary electrons and protons 20130814-21_Epam_e_7d.  

TRACKING NR.:

35/13

20130820/ 00:24 20130820/ 9:30 UTC 20130820/ 12:42 UTC 20130820/ 10:09 UTC  

 

ACTIVE REGION:

near AR 11820

 

 

Earth directed?

FULLY HALO  

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

SOUTHWEST quadrant

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

filament eruption

none  
  (1) STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) SDO /AIA-comp (3) SoHO/ LASCO C 2

(4) STEREO-"AHEAD"

 

 

TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << NOAA SPACE WEATHER ALERTS NOAA/ REPORTS: INTERNAL REPORT

ASSOCIATED SEP EVENT:

 

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TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION

 

Abbreviations:

LDE

= Long Duration Event

2013

alien-homepage.de

 

10 cm RADIO BURST    

SAP

= Solar Accelerated Particles/ Protons

       
RELATED TERRESTRIAL CME TRACKING REPORT                

ONGOING CME ARRIVAL

CME/ Nr.:

35/13

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

SEASONAL MAIN IMPACT LATITUDES (JUNE):

> 15° S- > 45° N

STRENGTH:    

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENT

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN/ UTC GEOMAGNETIC HZ COMPONENT   MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  

20130822

near AR 11820 SOUTHWEST quadrant

filament eruption

20130820 9:30 UTC

CME could not be analysed due to interferencies with prior CME (34/13, a,b)

IMPACT POLARITY :        
REMARKS:         E internal (relatiuve CME mass value      
MULTIPLE CME EVENTS ( CLUSTERS) AND LATENCY EFFECTS:
 
FURTHER CMEs/ APPROACHING:
NONE
 
     
         
         
SOLAR CME EVENT:                  

20130817

CMEs at:

18:31 UTC

EST. ARRIVAL:

AUGUST-1 8- 19

POLARITY: SAP BETA UNKNOWN  

GOES/ GEOMAG. PROTON FLUX

GOES / X- RAY (nuclear activity/ solar flares)  

TRACKING NR.:

34/13 a,b

20130817/ 21:24 UTC 20130817/ 18:31 UTC 20130817: 22:30 UTC    

 

ACTIVE REGION:

11818

   

 

Earth directed?

FULLY HALO  

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

20° - 34° W

07° S

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

LDE (proton) flare

M 3  

THE EVENT IS ASS. TO A MINOR SAP

(1) STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) SDO /AIA-comp (3) SoHO/ LASCO C 2

(4) SoHO/ LASCO C 32

 

 

TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << NOAA SPACE WEATHER ALERTS NOAA/ X RAY EVENTS: INTERNAL REPORT

 

 

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TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION

 

   

Abbreviations:

LDE

= Long Duration Event

2013

alien-homepage.de

 

10 cm RADIO BURST  

 

   

SAP

= Solar Accelerated Particles/ Protons

       
RELATED TERRESTRIAL CME TRACKING REPORT                

ONGOING CME ARRIVAL

CME/ Nr.:

34/13 a.b

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

SEASONAL MAIN IMPACT LATITUDES (JUNE):

NORTHERN

STRENGTH:    

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENT

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN/ UTC GEOMAGNETIC DEVIATION

26 nT

MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  

20130820

11818

20° - 34° W

07° S

M3 LDE FLARE/ SEP 20130817 18:21 UTC

20:30 UTC

165 nT  

22- 24 UTC

23 UTC IMPACT POLARITY : PROTONS (SEP) ALASKA PENINS & CENTRAL PACIFIC  
REMARKS:       150- 180° W 165° W E internal (relatiuve CME mass value (SECOND IMPACT/ 20130821: WESTERN EUROPE^ AFRICA& CANARY ILANDS  
MULTIPLE CME EVENTS ( CLUSTERS) AND LATENCY EFFECTS:
 
CMEs/ APPROACHING:
01
 
     
   

 

 

           

 

 

 

SOLAR CME EVENT :                  

20130813

CME at

13:28 UTC

ARRIVAL* :

AUGUST- 15- 2013

POLARITY: ALPHA BETA UNKNOWN  

GOES/ GEOMAG. PROTON FLUX

GOES / X- RAY (nuclear activity/ solar flares)  

TRACKING NR.:

32/13

20130813/ 17:09 UTC 20130813/ 13:28 UTC 20130813/ 20:18 UTC    

 

ACTIVE REGION:

11817

   

 

Earth directed?

HALO  

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

11° E- 03° W

22° S

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

LDE erupting prominence

NONE  
  (1) STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) SDO /AIA-comp (3) SoHO/ LASCO C 2

(4) SoHO/ LASCO C 32

 

 

TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << NOAA SPACE WEATHER ALERTS NOAA/ X RAY EVENTS: INTERNAL REPORT

 

 

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TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION

* estimated

   

Abbreviations:

LDE

= Long Duration Event

2013

alien-homepage.de

 

10 cm RADIO BURST  

 

   

SAP

= Solar Accelerated Particles/ Protons

       
RELATED TERRESTRIAL CME TRACKING REPORT                

ONGOING CME ARRIVAL

CME/ Nr.:

32/13

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

SEASONAL MAIN IMPACT LATITUDES (JUNE):

> 15° S- > 45° N

STRENGTH:    

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENT

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN/ UTC GEOMAGNETIC HZ COMPONENT   MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  
APPROACHING...

11817

11° E- 03° W

22° S

ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE

AUG- 1

13:28           IMPACT POLARITY :        
REMARKS:           E internal (relatiuve CME mass value      
MULTIPLE CME EVENTS ( CLUSTERS) AND LATENCY EFFECTS:
   
CMEs/ APPROACHING:
01
         

 

 

       
SOLAR CME EVENT :                  

20130811- 12

CMEs at:

11:25 UTC

ARRIVAL:

AUGUST 13- 14

POLARITY: ALPHA? BETA UNKNOWN  

GOES/ GEOMAG. PROTON FLUX

GOES / X- RAY (nuclear activity/ solar flares)  

TRACKING NR.:

31/ 13 a,b

  20130812/ 11: 26 UTC 20130812/ 16:06    

 

ACTIVE REGION:

11817

     

 

Earth directed?

partially  

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

23° - 09° E

22° S

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

several short proton flare?

M 1  
  (1) STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) SDO /AIA-comp (3) SoHO/ LASCO C 2

(4) SoHO/ LASCO C 32

 

 

TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << NOAA SPACE WEATHER ALERTS NOAA/ X RAY EVENTS: INTERNAL REPORT

 

 

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TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION

 

   

Abbreviations:

LDE

= Long Duration Event

2013

alien-homepage.de

 

10 cm RADIO BURST  

 

   

SAP

= Solar Accelerated Particles/ Protons

       
RELATED TERRESTRIAL CME TRACKING REPORT                

ONGOING CME ARRIVAL

CME/ Nr.:

31/13

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

SEASONAL MAIN IMPACT LATITUDES (JUNE):

> 15° S- > 45° N

STRENGTH:    

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENT

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN/ UTC MAX SW GEOMAGNETIC HZ COMPONENT

-7 nT at 12/2041Z

MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  

AUGUST- 13- 2013

11817

23° - 09° E

22° S

short proton flare

20130812 11:25 UTC after 08 UTC 155 nT   11 UTC- 01 UTC( AUG14) 14 UTC/ 19- 21 UTC IMPACT POLARITY : POSITIVE ATLANTIC( CANARY ISLANDS  
REMARKS:         30° W/ 105° W 145° W E internal (relatiuve CME mass value AMERICAS /WEST  
MULTIPLE CME EVENTS ( CLUSTERS) AND LATENCY EFFECTS:
   
CMEs/ APPROACHING:
 

385

no major changes in" region" parameters

 
         

 

 

       
TODAY`S SOLAR CME EVENTS:                  

20130716

CMEs at:

01:10 UTC

ARRIVAL:

JULY- 18- 2013

POLARITY: ALPHA BETA UNKNOWN  

GOES/ GEOMAG. PROTON FLUX

GOES / X- RAY (nuclear activity/ solar flares)  

TRACKING NR.:

30/ 13

20130716/ 20:39 UTC 20130716: 02:42 UTC 20130716/ 04:30 UTC 20130716/ 11:30 UTC  

 

ACTIVE REGION:

11791

 

 

Earth directed?

   

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

08°E - 06° W

14° S

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

flare/ eruptive prominence

C 2  
  (1) STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) SDO /AIA-comp (3) SoHO/ LASCO C 2

(4) SoHO/ LASCO C 32

 

 

TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << NOAA SPACE WEATHER ALERTS NOAA/ X RAY EVENTS: CME REPORT

 

 

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TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION

 

   

Abbreviations:

LDE

= Long Duration Event

2013

alien-homepage.de

 

10 cm RADIO BURST  

 

   

SAP

= Solar Accelerated Particles/ Protons

       
RELATED TERRESTRIAL CME TRACKING REPORT                

ONGOING CME ARRIVAL

CME/ Nr.:

30 /13

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

SEASONAL MAIN IMPACT LATITUDES (JUNE):

> 15° S- > 45° N

STRENGTH:    

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENT

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN/ UTC GEOMAGNETIC HZ COMPONENT + 2 nT (NORTH) MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  

20130718

11791- 95

08°E - 06° W

14° S

eruptive prominence/ flare

20130716

01:10/ 4:30

7:30 UTC

155 nT  

11- 02 UTC(JU19)

12:30- 14 UTC IMPACT POLARITY : negative EUROPE WEST ATLANTIC/ EAST  
REMARKS:       15° E- 180°-150° E 22° W- 30° W E internal (relative CME mass value): ALL AMERICAS WEST COASTS  
MULTIPLE CME EVENTS ( CLUSTERS) AND LATENCY EFFECTS:
   
CMEs/ APPROACHING:
01
 
455
EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC
 

 

 

                 
SOLAR CME EVENT :                  

20130707- 09

CMEs at:

unclear

ARRIVAL:

JULY- 09- 20:45 UTC

POLARITY: ALPHA BETA UNKNOWN  

GOES/ GEOMAG. ELECTRON FLUX

GOES / X- RAY (nuclear activity/ solar flares)  

TRACKING NR.:

29/13

20130709/ 19: 54 UTC 20130708/ 01:29 UTC 20130709/ 15:26 UTC 20130710/ 00:06 UTC  

 

ACTIVE REGION:

11785- 87

 

 

Earth directed?

   

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

17°- 31° W

10° S

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

PROTON EMISSION FROM LDE ACTIVITY? unclear event  
the erup (1) STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) SDO /AIA-comp (3) SoHO/ LASCO C 2

(4) SoHO/ LASCO C 32

 

 

TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << NOAA SPACE WEATHER ALERTS NOAA/ X RAY EVENTS: INTERNAL REPORT

 

 

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TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION

 

   

Abbreviations:

LDE

= Long Duration Event

2013

alien-homepage.de

 

10 cm RADIO BURST  

 

   

SAP

= Solar Accelerated Particles/ Protons

       
RELATED TERRESTRIAL CME TRACKING REPORT                

ONGOING CME ARRIVAL

CME/ Nr.:

29 /13

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

SEASONAL MAIN IMPACT LATITUDES (JUNE):

> 15° S- > 45° N

STRENGTH:    

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENT

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN/ UTC GEOMAGNETIC HZ COMPONENT

-08 nT SOUTH

MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  

20130709

11785- 77

17°- 31° W

10° S

impulsive flares

unknown   20:49 (NOAA) 145 nT  

10:30- 01:30 (JULY10)

13- 17/ 21-22 UTC IMPACT POLARITY : PROTONS (ACE) CENTRAL AMERICA CALIFORNIA  
REMARKS:       22° E- 180- 160° E 15- 75° W/ 105- 150° W E internal (relatiuve CME mass value WESTERN ATLANTIC CANARIES  
MULTIPLE CME EVENTS ( CLUSTERS) AND LATENCY EFFECTS:
   
CMEs/ APPROACHING:
 
290
ENTIRE PACIFIC
GLOBAL
 

 

 

                 
                                 
                                 

register card CLICK HERE TO OPEN AND CLOSE COLLAPSIBLE PANEL WITH INFORMATION ON LATEST CME EVENTS AND TERRESTRIAL IMPACT ANALYSIS- JANUARY- JUNE- 2013-

MAJOR EARTH DIRECTED CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME) IN 2013

note: the layout of thesepages and data plots is- as well as the entire project - under steady development 8! data layout and tables may change from time to time to achieve the best performance!

 
                   
SOLAR CME EVENT :                  
  CMEs at:

 

ARRIVAL:

 

POLARITY: ALPHA (SEP) BETA UNKNOWN  

GOES/ GEOMAG. PROTON FLUX

GOES / X- RAY (nuclear activity/ solar flares)  

TRACKING NR.:

39/ 13

20130929/ 22:28 UTC 20130929/ 23: 29 UTC 20130930/ 0:30 UTC 20130930/ 1:30 UTC  

 

ACTIVE REGION:

   

 

Earth directed?

   

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

NEAR CH 588    

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

filament eruption

   
the event was associated to a major SEP- > (1) STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) SDO /AIA-comp (3) SoHO/ LASCO C 2

(4) SoHO/ LASCO C 32

 

 

TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << NOAA SPACE WEATHER ALERTS NOAA/ X RAY EVENTS: INTERNAL REPORT

 

 

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TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION > 10 MeV PROTONS > 100 pfu  

Abbreviations:

LDE

= Long Duration Event

2013

alien-homepage.de

 

10 cm RADIO BURST  

 

   

SAP /SEP

= Solar Accelerated Particles/ Protons

       
RELATED TERRESTRIAL CME TRACKING REPORT                

ONGOING CME ARRIVAL

CME/ Nr.:

/13

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

SEASONAL MAIN IMPACT LATITUDES (JUNE):

> 15° S- > 45° N

STRENGTH:    

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENT

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN/ UTC GEOMAGNETIC HZ COMPONENT   MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  
APPROACHING...                       IMPACT POLARITY :        
REMARKS:           E internal (relatiuve CME mass value      
MULTIPLE CME EVENTS ( CLUSTERS) AND LATENCY EFFECTS:
 
CMEs/ APPROACHING:
01
 
     
SEPTEMBER- 30 - 2013: an extreme filament eruption occured early on September 30- 2013 from a near CENTRAL position on the Sun near Cronal Hole C 588 along with a strong and FULLY HALO CME. observable on SoHo imagery, that will make a full hit on the Earth sometime on Sept 31- October 01. Filament eruptions do not create a significant X ray signature, but likely can throw out more solar matter than any other eruption type. This matter from instable processes around CHs or Sunspots contains also rather noxious elements  
         
LATEST SOLAR CME EVENT                  

20130921

CMEs at:

9:29 UTC

ARRIVAL:

20130923- 24

POLARITY: ALPHA BETA UNKNOWN  

GOES/ GEOMAG. PROTON FLUX

GOES / X- RAY (nuclear activity/ solar flares)  

TRACKING NR.:

39/ 13

20130922/ 08:09 UTC 20130921/ 9:29 UTC 20130921/ 10:54 UTC 20130922/ 9:30 UTC  

 

ACTIVE REGION:

near 11850

 

 

Earth directed?

   

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

     

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

LDE filament eruption

strong  
  (1) STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) SDO /AIA-comp (3) SoHO/ LASCO C 3

(4) SoHO/ LASCO C 32

 

 

TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << NOAA SPACE WEATHER ALERTS NOAA/ X RAY EVENTS: INTERNAL REPORT

 

 

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TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION

 

   

Abbreviations:

LDE

= Long Duration Event

2013

alien-homepage.de

 

10 cm RADIO BURST  

 

   

SAP

= Solar Accelerated Particles/ Protons

       
RELATED TERRESTRIAL CME TRACKING REPORT                

ONGOING CME ARRIVAL

CME/ Nr.:

39/13

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

SEASONAL MAIN IMPACT LATITUDES (JUNE):

EQUATOR

STRENGTH: 1-2  

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENT

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN/ UTC GEOMAGNETIC HZ COMPONENT max. - 7 nT MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  

20130923/ 21 UTC

11850

    filament eruptiopn     21 UTC 130 nT   12- 20 UTC 13- 17 UTC IMPACT POLARITY : PROTONS EASTERN ATLANTIC S- AMERICA  
REMARKS:      

00- 120° W

15- 75° W E internal (relatiuve CME mass value WESTERN EUROPE CENTR AMERICA  
MULTIPLE CME EVENTS ( CLUSTERS) AND LATENCY EFFECTS:
       
FURTHER CMEs/ APPROACHING:
00

 

 
TODAY`S SOLAR CME EVENTS:                  

20130628

CMEs at:

01:59

EST. ARRIVAL:

JUNE- 30- 2013

POLARITY: ALPHA BETA UNKNOWN  

ACE/ SIS: /INTERPLANETARY PROTON FLUX

GOES / X- RAY (nuclear activity/ solar flares)  

TRACKING NR.:

28/13

20130628/ 02:39 20130628/ 05:42 UTC 20130628/ 01:44 UTC 20130628/ 02:11 UTC  

 

ACTIVE REGION:

11777

 

 

PARTIAL HALO CME

 

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

22° - 36° W

15° S

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

LDE FLARE

C 4.4  
CME COULD NOT BE ANALIZED* (1) STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) SoHO/ LASCO C 32 (2) SDO /AIA-comp

(4) SoHO/ LASCO C 32

 

 

TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << NOAA SPACE WEATHER ALERTS NOAA/ X RAY EVENTS: *INTERNAL

 

 

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TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION

 

   

Abbreviations:

LDE

= Long Duration Event

2013

alien-homepage.de

 

10 cm RADIO BURST  

 

   

SAP

= Solar Accelerated Particles/ Protons

       

 

 

 
EARTH DIRECTED SOLAR CME EVENT S                  

20130618

CMEs at:

20:43 UTC

ARRIVAL:

uncertain

POLARITY: ALPHA BETA UNKNOWN  

GOES/ GEOMAG. PROTON FLUX

GOES / X- RAY (nuclear activity/ solar flares)  

TRACKING NR.:

27/13

20130618/ 20:39 UTC 20130618/ 20:43 UTC 20130618/ 03:42 UTC    

 

 

ACTIVE REGION:

11773?

   

 

Earth directed?

halo  

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

38° - 24° E

04° N

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

FLARE

C 5  
  (1) STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) SDO /AIA-comp (3) SoHO/ LASCO C 2

(4) SoHO/ LASCO C 32

 

 

TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << NOAA SPACE WEATHER ALERTS NOAA/ X RAY EVENTS: NOAA/ SAP:

 

 

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TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION

 

   

Abbreviations:

LDE

= Long Duration Event

2013

alien-homepage.de

 

10 cm RADIO BURST  

 

   

SAP

= Solar Accelerated Particles/ Protons

       
   
RELATED TERRESTRIAL CME TRACKING REPORT                

ONGOING CME ARRIVAL

CME/ Nr.:

27/13

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

SEASONAL MAIN IMPACT LATITUDES (JUNE):

> 15° S- > 45° N

STRENGTH: MINOR (1-2)  

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENT

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN/ UTC GEOMAGNETIC HZ COMPONENT (SOUTH)

- 5 nT at 12: 43

MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  

20130620

11773

38° - 24° E

04° N

C5 event from CENTRAL MERIDIAN REGION

20130618

20.43 unclear ( 02 UTC?) 155 nT   12- 24 UTC 18- 19 UTC IMPACT POLARITY : BETA CENTRAL AMERICA SOUTH AMERICA  
REMARKS:       00- 180° W 90- 105° W E internal (relatiuve CME mass value:      
MULTIPLE CME EVENTS ( CLUSTERS) AND LATENCY EFFECTS:
   
CMEs/ APPROACHING:
01
 

330

WESTERN EUROPE
ATLANTIC
 

 

 

 

                 
PREVIOUS MAJOR EARTH DIRECTED CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CME):

this section will always appear, when a significant CME event was noticed and data have to be updated. You find more information about recent CME events in " today`s preliminary report"

 
SOLAR CME EVENT (REPORT):                  

201306 03

CMEs at:

00:12/ 07:24 UTC

ARRIVAL:

JUNE 05- 06- 2013

POLARITY: ALPHA BETA UNKNOWN  

GOES/ GEOMAG. PROTON FLUX

GOES / X- RAY (nuclear activity/ solar flares)  

TRACKING NR.:

25/13

20130602/ 23:39 UTC 20130603/ 07:28 UTC 20130603/ 05:42 UTC 20130602/ 05:28 UTC  

 

 

ACTIVE REGION:

11762

 

 

Earth directed?

partial?  

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

19° - 33° W

28° S

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

impulsive LDE flare

C 9  
unclear event that however caused a significant impact on June- 06- 2013 (1) STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) SDO /AIA-comp (3) SoHO/ LASCO C 2

(4) SoHO/ LASCO C 32

 

 

TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << NOAA SPACE WEATHER ALERTS NOAA/ X RAY EVENTS: NOAA/ SAP:

 

 

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TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION

 

   

Abbreviations:

LDE

= Long Duration Event

2013

alien-homepage.de

 

10 cm RADIO BURST  

 

   

SAP

= Solar Accelerated Particles/ Protons

     
a minor flare( rather an eruptive prominence -as typically without significant rise of x- ray flux) was observed on June 02 2013: STEREO had first no transmission from 20130602/ 17: 42 UTC- 23:39 UTC, images resumed days later. The C 9 class flare on JUNE 03 at around 10 UTC has- due to SoHO and STEREO images not produced a CME at all,. The events will further be analysed if any CME impact should become obvious  
RELATED TERRESTRIAL CME TRACKING REPORT                

ONGOING CME ARRIVAL

CME/ Nr.:

25 & 26/13

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

SEASONAL MAIN IMPACT LATITUDES (JUNE)

> 15° S- > 45° N

STRENGTH:    

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENT

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN/ UTC GEOMAGNETIC HZ COMPONENT > SOUTHWARDS MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  

20130606.

11762/60?

19° - 33° W

28° S

2-3 CME in AR 11762

20130602/03? 05:28 (main) 14 UTC 165 nT   13- 20 UTC 15 UTC IMPACT POLARITY > (+) positive ATLANTIC AMERICAS WEST  

20130607

11762

   

CME in AR 11672

20130605

  03 UTC 130 nT   09 - 02 UTC ( JU-08) 16- 21 UTC   unknown US WEST COAST EASTERN PACIFIC  
REMARKS: INTERFERING AND SUMMING UP WITH PREVIOUS EVENTS! > 150 nT     45° E- 180°- 150° E 60°- 135° W internal (relatiuve CME mass value EASTERN EURASIA WESTERN PACIFIC  
MULTIPLE CME EVENTS ( CLUSTERS) AND LATENCY EFFECTS:
   
FURTHER CMEs/ APPROACHING:
01
   

WESTERN EURASIA

   

 

 

 

       
SOLAR CME EVENT (REPORT):                  

20130522

CMEs at:

08:57 UTC

ARRIVAL:

MAY 23- 24

POLARITY: ALPHA BETA UNKNOWN  

GOES/ GEOMAG. PROTON FLUX

GOES / X- RAY (nuclear activity/ solar flares)  

TRACKING NR.:

24/13

20130522/ 14:54 UTC 20130522/ 13:14 20130522/ 13:36 UTC 20130522/ 17:36 UTC  

 

ACTIVE REGION:

11745

 

 

Earth directed?

PARTIAL HALO  

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

67 ° - 81° W

13 °  N

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

impulsive LDE flare

M6  
PROTON EMISSION- 100 MEV P > 1000 pfu! (1) STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) SDO /AIA-comp (3) SoHO/ LASCO C 2

(4) SoHO/ LASCO C 32

 

 

TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << RADIO BLACKOUT WARNINGS NOAA/ X RAY EVENTS: NOAA/ PROTON EVENTS:

 

 

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TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION

 

   

Abbreviations:

LDE=

Long Duration Event

2013

alien-homepage.de

 

10 cm RADIO BURST  

 

               

RELATED CME ARRIVAL

CME/ Nr.:

24 /13

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

SEASONAL MAIN IMPACT LATITUDES:

60° N- 60° S

STRENGTH: 2-3  

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENT

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN/ UTC POLARITY: REL. MASS VALUE MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  
APPROACHING...

11745

67 ° - 81° W

13 °  N

Explosion during M 5 LDE flare MAY- 22- 2013 13:00 UTC                    
REMARKS: STRONG geomagnetic depression caused by > 1000 pfu proton storm( MAY22 after 13 UTC).) lowered by proton influence!)       E   WESTERN AMERICA & PACIFIC / INDONESIA/ INDIAN OCEAN  
MULTIPLE CME EVENTS ( CLUSTERS) AND LATENCY EFFECTS:
SINGLE STRONG IMPULSIVE ERUPTION DURING LDE FLARE WITH ASSOCIATED TO MAJOR PROTON STORM
 
CMEs/ APPROACHING:
CLUSTER
 
LATENCIES >
EASTERN EURASIA
GLOBAL
 
                       
X CLASS EVENTS AND CME CLUSTER/ 20130513-17 CLUSTER!                

RELATED CME ARRIVALS

CME/ Nr.:

23- a-d /13

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

SEASONAL MAIN IMPACT LATITUDES:

60° N- 60° S

STRENGTH: 2-3  

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENT

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN/ UTC POLARITY: REL. MASS VALUE MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  

20130515- 20

AR 11748

87° - 24° E 11° N 4 X+ CLASS EVENTS/ CME CLUSTER MAY 13/04 UTC- MAY 17( 1:11 UTC CLUSTER after 09 UTC 140 nT* (   influenced by proton storm 14- 60° /120° W associated to longest proton storm measured in the last two years! HIGH* ATLANTIC/ KAMCHATKA  
REMARKS: STRONG geomagnetic depression caused by > 10 pfu proton storm ( MAY 13- 21- dim.) lowered by proton influence!)   total impact: 40 hours* 165° W- 15° E E   WESTERN AMERICA & PACIFIC / INDONESIA/ INDIAN OCEAN  
MULTIPLE CME EVENTS ( CLUSTERS) AND LATENCY EFFECTS:
t MULTIPLE CME CLUSTER ASSOCIATED TO PROTON STORM/ estimated IMPACT duration: APRIL 23- 25
 
CMEs/ APPROACHING:
CLUSTER
* (incalculable because of proton storm
LATENCIES >
EASTERN EURASIA
GLOBAL
 
                         

20130517

CMEs at:

08:57 UTC

ARRIVAL:

MAY 19-20

POLARITY: ALPHA BETA UNKNOWN  

GOES/ GEOMAG. PROTON FLUX

GOES / X- RAY (nuclear activity/ solar flares)  

TRACKING NR.:

23 d/13

20130517/ 11:09 UTC 20130517/ 09:13 UTC 20130517/ 09:48 UTC 20130517/ 11:06  

 

ACTIVE REGION:

11748

 

 

Earth directed?

FULLY HALO  

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

38 ° - 24° E

11 °  N

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

impulsive LDE flare

M 3.2  
PROTON EMISSION/ STORM! (1) STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) SDO /AIA-comp (3) SoHO/ LASCO C 2

(4) SoHO/ LASCO C 3

 

 

TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << RADIO BLACKOUT WARNINGS  

Abbreviations

LDE=

Long Duration Event

 

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TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION EVENT REPORTS:    

2013

alien-homepage.de

 

10 cm RADIO BURST                        
                         
                       

20130515

CMEs at:

01:59 UTC

ARRIVAL:

MAY 17- 18

POLARITY: ALPHA BETA UNKNOWN  

GOES/ GEOMAG. PROTON FLUX

GOES / X- RAY (nuclear activity/ solar flares)  

TRACKING NR.:

23 c/13

20130515/ 02:54 UTC 20130515/ 02:13 UTC 20130515/ 01:59 UTC 20130515/ 01:54 UTC  

 

ACTIVE REGION:

11748

 

 

Earth directed?

PARTIAL HALO  

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

11° N

63° E

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

impulsive LDE

X 1.2 (LDE)  
PROTON EMISSION/ STORM! (1) STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) SDO /AIA-comp (3) SDO /AIA-comp

(4) SoHO/ LASCO C 3

 

 

TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << RADIO BLACKOUT WARNINGS  

Abbreviations

LDE=

Long Duration Event

 

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TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION EVENT REPORTS:    

2013

alien-homepage.de

 

10 cm RADIO BURST                        
                         

20130514

CMEs at:

01:11 UTC

ARRIVAL:

MAY 16

POLARITY: ALPHA BETA UNKNOWN  

 

TRACKING NR.:

23 b /13

    20130514/ 03: 09 UTC 20130514/ 01:11 UTC  

 

ACTIVE REGION:

11748

     

 

Earth directed?

PARTIAL  

 

SUN COORDINATES:

 

 

81 ° - 67° E

11 °  N

 

 

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

 

 

impulsive flare

X 1.1  
PROTON EMISSION/ STORM! (1) STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) SoHO/ LASCO C 3 (3) SDO /AIA-comp

(4) SDO /AIA-comp

 

 

TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << RADIO BLACKOUT WARNINGS  

Abbreviations

LDE=

Long Duration Event

 

 

TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION EVENT REPORTS:      

 

10 cm RADIO BURST            
             
 

 

 

 

                   

 

 

 

       

 

CME/ Nr.:

21/13

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

SEASONAL MAIN IMPACT LATITUDES:

60° N- 60° S

STRENGTH: 1-2  

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENT

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN/ UTC POLARITY: REL. MASS VALUE MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  

20130423 after 10 UTC

11726

22° - 36° W

12 °  N

multiple proton flares on Apr. 20- 22

20130420 after 22 UTC 07 UTC ongoing> 150 nT under p influence   10 UTC 14. 19 UTC

associated to Proton storm

UNKNOWN ( geomag storming) CENTRAL AMERICA & CALIFORNIA  
REMARKS: CME CLUSTER ( at least 3 following CMEs)     30° E- >>global 75°- 105° W MEDIUM IMPACT> ATLANTIC- ALL AMERICAS- PACIFIC  
MULTIPLE CME EVENTS ( CLUSTERS) AND LATENCY EFFECTS:
t MULTIPLE CME CLUSTER ASSOCIATED TO PROTON STORM/ estimated IMPACT duration: APRIL 23- 25
 
CMEs/ APPROACHING:
CLUSTER
 
MINOR IMPACT
EUROPE WEST
GLOBAL
 
 

 

 

                   

 

 

 

       

APRIL 13-15- 2013

CME/ Nr.:

20 a- c/13

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

SEASONAL MAIN IMPACT LATITUDES:

60° N- 60° S

STRENGTH: 3 (STRONG)  

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENT

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN/ UTC POLARITY: REL. MASS VALUE MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  
CME cluster!/first arrival: 20130413/after 23:30 UTC

11719

16 °- 02° E

08 °  N

M 7 flare with FULLY HALO CME! 20130411 07:14 UTC (main) 20130414/ after 10:00 UTC ( main CME) 160 (under proton influence)   10:30- 03 UTC( AP15)

10:30 - 03 UTC( APR-15)

EVENT WAS ASSOCIATED TO SOLAR QUAKE AND A SHARP RISE OF INTROGEOMAGNETIC PROTON FLUX JUST 135 minutes after thesolar M 7 event 500 WESTERN EUROPE AND AFRICA/ ATLANTIC ( CANARIES!) - ALL AMERICAS/ USA WEST  
REMARKS:

impact long/lat >

  25° E- 00°- 180°- 150° E

165° W- 120° E

20° E- 135° W

SECONDARY EASTERN PACIFIC (NZL, P.N.G. KAMCHATKA)/ EASTERN EUROPE  
MULTIPLE CME EVENTS ( CLUSTERS) AND LATENCY EFFECTS:

The CME was part of a multiple LDE event and has has at least thre eparts/ peaks

 
CMEs/ APPROACHING:

01 ( minor)

 
LATENCIES >
PROTONS
CME 21/13
 

 

 

 

       

 

CME/ Nr.:

19/13

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

SEASONAL MAIN IMPACT LATITUDES:

60° N- 60° S

STRENGTH: MINOR EVENT/ no report  
                             
                       

 

 

 

       

CME/ Nr.:

18/13

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

MAIN IMPACT LATITUDES

60° N- 60° S

STRENGTH: 1-2  

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENT

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN/ UTC POLARITY: REL. MASS VALUE MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  

20130320

11692

15° - 29° W

09 °  N

flare after 14: 58 UTC 20130317 14: 58 UTC 05 UTC 135 nT   16- 23 UTC 19- 21 UTC obv. contained alpha particles ( hydrogen cores) 192 CANADA/ ALASKA, WESTERN PACIFIC  
REMARKS:

impact long/lat >

  60°- 165° W 105°- 135° W SECONDARY FROM EUROPE WEST TO S AND NORTH AMERICA- WEST COASTS  
MULTIPLE CME EVENTS ( CLUSTERS) AND LATENCY EFFECTS:
this CME INTERFERS withe EFFECTS of PREVIOUS CME 16/13  
CMEs/ APPROACHING:
00
 
LATENCIES >
appr. - MAR 26?
interfering with previous CME impact( 17/13(
 
                       

 

 

       
CME Nr 17/ 13

CME/ Nr.:

17/13

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

MAIN IMPACT LATITUDES

60° N- 60° S

STRENGTH: 2-3  

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENT

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN/ UTC POLARITY: REL. MASS VALUE* MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  
20130317

11692

10° E- 04° W

09 °  N

M 1 class LDE flare

20130315

06:14 UTC

after 04:30 UTC ongoing   12- 02 (MAR18)UTC 12:00- 15:00 associated to major solar PROTON STORM   EUROPE & AFRICA ATLANTIC ( WEST)  
REMARKS:

 

impact LONGITUDE >

00°W- 180°- 150° E 00°- 45° W SECONDARY NORTH AND SOUTH AMERICA/ ENTIRE PACIFIC  
MULTIPLE CME EVENTS ( CLUSTERS) AND LATENCY EFFECTS:

CME from filament eruption on MAR 17 might have Earth directed part

 
CMEs/ APPROACHING:
01
 
LATENCIES BY >
PROTON STORM
MAR 15/ 18 UTC- MAR-. 18/ 18 UTC
 
                       

 

 

       

NR 16 a, b/ 13

ARRIVAL DATE:

20130314

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT:

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

STRENGTH:

2    

>TRACKING NR

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENT

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN POLARITY: REL. MASS VALUE* MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  

16 a, b/13

11690

20 ° - 34° W

22 °  N

LDE flare

20130312

LDE after 04:00 UTC

after 10 UTC

ongoing              
REMARKS: impact long/lat >   30° E-00°W- 120° E 90- 120 °W SECONDARY ENTIRE- MAINLY EASTERN PACIFIC  
MULTIPLE CME EVENTS ( CLUSTERS) AND LATENCY EFFECTS:

impact interferes still with previous CME effects

 
CMEs/ APPROACHING:
00
 
LATENCIES >
PROTONS
ONGOING(- MAR- 16?)
 
                             

NR 15/ 13

ARRIVAL DATE:

20130309

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT:

 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

STRENGTH:

2    

>TRACKING NR

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENT

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

 

> 100 nT

MAIN POLARITY: REL. MASS VALUE* MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS  

15/13

11687

23 ° - 09° E

08 °  N

20130307

LDE after 04:00 UTC

after 08 UTC

145 nT  

10- 04 ( MAR 10) UTC

19- 20 UTC CME likely form proton flare as coincident minor proton increase ( x )storm MAR 07 / ongoing 360 WEST COASTS OF N, CENTR. & S- AMERICA  
REMARKS: impact long/lat >   30° E-00°W- 120° E 90- 120 °W SECONDARY ENTIRE- MAINLY EASTERN PACIFIC  
MULTIPLE CME EVENTS ( CLUSTERS) AND LATENCY EFFECTS:

impact interferes still with previous CME effects

 
CMEs/ APPROACHING:
00
 
LATENCIES >
PROTONS
ONGOING(- MAR- 16?)
 
               
             

MULTIPLE CME EVENTS ( CLUSTERS) AND LATENCY EFFECTS:

EXPECTABLE OTHER EFFECTS OF THIS CME

 

CME ARRIVAL TIME:

CME/ NR.: SOLAR EVENT TYPE AND DATE:

on: (DATE)

TIME ( UTC) GEOMAG IMPACT: DETAILS   CMEs/ APPROACHING: LATENCIES SHORT CME IMPACT REPORTS: EXPECTABLE EFFECTS OF THIS CME  

20130301

14/13

20130226   partial ongoing        

begin: 20130221/ 09 UTC- end: appr FEB 23 ? UTC

12/13

 

20130219

LDE FEB 19-10.42 UTC until FEB 21 (AR rotating out)

ongoing

neutrally - negatively charged  

uncountable because of intensive solar wind emissions

multiple CMEs CLUSTER
MULTIPLE CME EVENT/ CLUSTER
 
UNEXPECTED ARRIVAL OF CME FROM LDE ACTIVITY IN AR11671

13/13

20130222- 26?

 

145 nT neutrally - negatively charged   LATENCY> UNTIL FEB- 28?  

not geoeffective

11/13

^^ NOTE: minor changes/improvements will be made on this list > such as: text boxes with brief reports will from now on be integrated: ^^

 

CME ARRIVAL TIME:

CME/ NR.: SOLAR EVENT TYPE AND DATE:

on: (DATE)

TIME ( UTC) GEOMAG IMPACT: DETAILS   CMEs/ APPROACHING: LATENCIES " IMMIDIATE EFFECTS"( see below): VOLCANISM / STORMS ACTIVITIES PRELIMINARY FORECAST:  

20130211/ after 04 UTC

10/13

C2 flare in AR 11667

20130209

06:11 UTC

135 nT

beta/ electrons   00 NO LATENCY possible MINOR electron effects such as radio blackouts induced currents, increase in storms volcanic activities and tremors on FEB 11. MINOR Earthquakes likely on Feb 11 and 12  

20130207/ after 04 UTC

09/ 13

C 8 proton flare in  AR 11667 after 00:15 UTC followed by eruptive prominence

20130206

00:15 UTC

145 nT- under p influence

minor proton increase   00 PROTONS single stronger Earthquakes on 2013027 Earthquake latency from 20130209 until 20130213?  

20130201/ after 01 UTC- FEB- 02

08/13

major filament eruption/ eruptive prominence from southeastern quadrant after 06:20 UTC

20130131/

06:20 UTC

145 nT positively charged?   00 (ACE/ EPAM) INCREASE IN INTERPLANETARY PROTONS: BEGIN FEB- 01 after 18:00 UTC. DECREASING SINCE FEB 03 after 16 UTC  

20130201/ after 01 UTC

07/13

filament eruption on January 30- 2013

20130130

 

155 nT              

20130125 / after 04 UTC

06/13

LDE filament eruption in Northeastern quadrant

20130123

13:45 UTC

160 nT 2-3  

00

INTERFERING INCREASING ( 2-3) UNCERTAIN (JAN- 28- 30?)  

20130118/ after 12:30 UTC

05/13

major flare in AR 11650 after proton eruption

20130116

19:23 UTC

195 nT EFFECTIVE PROTONS!  

00

last (of 4)CMEs LIKELY TO INCREASE AFTER JAN- 20 LATENCY  

20130117/ after 03 uTC

04/13

eruptive event near AR 11650- associated to minor proton increase

20130115

 

195 nT EFFECTIVE PROTONS!  

01

PROTON EVENT   LATENCY  

220130116/ after 03 UTC

03/13

solar flare

20130113/

20130115

partial/ 140 nT LOW  

02

PROTON EVENT   LATENCY  

20130113/- after 01 UTC

02/13

Impulsive M 1.7 proton flare in AR 11654

20130111

09:11 UTC

PROTON CONTENT! (2-3)  

02

PROTON EVENT   NO LATENCY  

20130106/after 04 UTC

01/13

eruptive prominence in AR 11640

20130104

15:11 UTC

partial LOW          

 

                         
                 

 

 

 

 

CLICK HERE TO OPEN AND CLOSE COLLAPSIBLE PANEL WITH INFORMATION ON LATEST SEP/ SAP( solar energetic/ or accelerated particles/ protons) AND TERRESTRIAL IMPACT ANALYSIS

 

LATEST SEP EVENT/ event log

 

 

 

 

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:  
SEP event > 10 MeV PROTONS
X 1,2 2 N Flare & CME after SEP/ 20140107/18 UTC
20140107/ 19 UTC
20140114/ 14 UTC
+/ - 1000 pfu.
near the speed of light
the exact P-speed is not evaluated yet
 
SEP event 10 MeV PROTONS
associated to major flaring in AR 11944
20140106/ 06 UTC
overlapsed by following SEP
> 30 pfu.
 
solar event could not certainly be evaluated
 
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  
 
INTEGRAL>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)
 
 
 
 
pending
 
INTEGRAL 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)
 
 
 
 
pending
 

 

 

           
                 
SEP EVENT/ short event description>      
SEP event > 10 MeV PROTON FLUX:
l AR / flare at 18:10 UTC 201312128/ 18:10 UTC 220140102/ 09 UTC 30 pfu.

62.000 km/ sec

       
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:      
INTEGRAL> 0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)
20140102/ after 07:30 UTC
interrupted by new SEP
90.000 pfu.
 
interfered by new SEP on 20140104
     
INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)
20140102/ after 11 UTC
20140105/ 24 UTC
4500 pfu
 
interfered by new SEP on 20140104
     

 

 

               
SEP EVENT/ short event description>      

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:
 
INTEGRAL 10 MeV PROTON FLUX:
unknown
201312126 08 UTC
ongoing
rising
unknown
 
 
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  
INTEGRAL> 0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)
the electron accumulation increased in density but have low effectivity/ energy suppressed by following proton events
 
INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)

 

      none yet  

 

       
         
SEP EVENT/ short event description> An X 1.0 LDE flare in AR 11893 peaking on NOV 19 at 10:42 UTC was associated to a major SEP    

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:  
 

INTEGRAL 10 MeV PROTON FLUX:

unknown 20131214/ 08 UTC 20131215/ 18 UTC 1.5 pfu.

unknown

ONLY SHORT EVENT  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  

INTEGRAL> 0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)

the electron accumulation increased in density but have low effectivity/ energy suppressed by following proton events

 

INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)

 

      none yet  
PREVIOUS SEP EVENT/ short event description> An X 1.0 LDE flare in AR 11893 peaking on NOV 19 at 10:42 UTC was associated to a major SEP    

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:
 

INTEGRAL 10 MeV PROTON FLUX:

20131119/ 10: 42 UTC 20131119/ 12:00 UTC 20131121/ 00:0= UTC 4 pfu.

27.700 km/second

ONLY SHORT EVENT  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  

INTEGRAL> 0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)

 

     

none yet/ overlapsed by proton events

 

INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)

 

      none yet/ overlapsed by proton events  

 

 

         
NOVEMBER 2013          
SEP EVENT/ short event description> X2.1 flares in AR 11882 ( 20131024) and X 1.0 / AR 117875 (20131028/ 4:00)were associated to SEP events      

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:
   

GEOEFFECTIVE > 10 MeV PROTONS :

20131106/ No CME related event found on SDO 20131107/ 01:30 UTC 20131114/ 00 UTC appr. 6 pfu. 21:000 km/s.      

GEOEFFECTIVE > 10 MeV PROTONS :

M 4.4 flare on 20131102/ 04:44 UTC

20131102/ 08 UTC interfered by following SEP appr. 1 pfu no satellite im.

low intensity but long duration

   
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:    

GEOEFFECTIVE > 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS:

> 10.000 pfu.

     

interfered by succeeding SEP/ 20131119

   

GEOEFFECTIVE > 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS:

< 1.000 pfu.

      interfered by succeeding SEP/ 20131119    

 

 

         
SEP EVENT:          

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:
   

GEOEFFECTIVE > 10 MeV PROTONS :

20131028/ 01:30 UTC interfered by following SEP appr. 2 pfu  

low/

   
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:    

GEOEFFECTIVE > 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS:

20131002/ 20131007 ongoing/ overlapsed by protons 80.000 pfu  

interfered by following SEP

   

GEOEFFECTIVE > 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS:

20131002/ 1930 ongoing/ overlapsed by protons 7.000 pfu  

interfered by following SEP

   
ABBREVIATIONS/ CLASS >
       

 

NEW DATA LAYOUT (AUG 2013)

         
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 

LATEST GEOEFFECTIVE SEP:

2013 suggested TIME OF SOLAR SEP EVENT: SEPTEMBER 29 at 21:45- 21: 59 UTC      
short event description> strong and fast filament eruption near CH 588 and CH UNN. associated with large sub surface SEP explosion      

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:      

GEOEFFECTIVE > 10 MeV PROTONS :

20130930/ 00 UTC 20131007/0000 > 100 pfu 21.000 km/ second

major S 2 event

     
      ( end = if back to 0.1 pfu)            
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:      
GEOEFFECTIVE > 0.8 MeV ELECTRONS:

20131002/ 20131007

ongoing

80.000 pfu

 

the event was overlapsed by a succeeding SEP event on 20131024 and 20131028

     
GEOEFFECTIVE > 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS:

20131002/ 1930

 

7.000 pfu

           
 

 

 

             
20130621 SOLAR PARTICLE EVENT (SAP)

SOLAR EVENT ( SAT)

20130621/ 23:42 UTC

         
EVENT LOG/ REPORT: PROTON SPEED: 22.000 km/s

km/ second

             
                   

PROTON IMPACT/ DURATION:

20130622/ 15 UTC- 30120628

ELECTRON ACUMMULATION:

20130621- 230130815

     
11pfu < HIGHEST PROTON VALUES HIGHEST ELECTRON VALUES

> 10 MeV

> 10.000 pfu > 1.000.000 pfu*      
NEW DETAILLED REPORTS: PROTON SAP 20130621 20130815        
GEOMAG SEP *IMPACT: < SOLAR STORMS/ SEP* EVENTS >

date/ SOLAR SEP event >

20130621

23:42 UTC        
GEOMAGNETIC DEPRESSION TERRESTRIAL/ GEOMAGNETIC IMPACTS

END of SEP impact >

20130815

preliminary        

EFFECTIVE PROTONS (ip+)

> 10 MeV PROTONS INCREASE/ BEGIN >

20130622/ 15 UTC

END: (5)

30120628

       

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS (-):

>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS INCREASE/ BEGIN >

20130621/ 10 UTC

END (1) : 230130815?              

 

>2.0 MeV ELECTRONS INCREASE/ BEGIN: >

20130622/ 13 UTC

END (1):

230130814?

                     

EVENT REPORT:

AR 11777 produced an M 2.7 flare on 20130621/ the eruption was associated with a low- medium SEP- event

                     
                                 
SOLAR PARTICLE EVENTS (SAP)

SOLAR EVENT ( SAT)

20130817/ 18:31 UTC

PROTON IMPACT/ DURATION:

20130817/ 18:31 UTC- 20130819/ 06 UTC

ELECTRON ACUMMULATION:

20130910/ 20 UTC

 
EVENT LOG/ REPORT: appr. PROTON SPEED: 8300

km/ second

later < HIGHEST PROTON VALUES HIGHEST ELECTRON VALUES

> 10 MeV

(start:) 20130824/ 10 UTC 20130910/ 20 UTC  
             

SAP TYPE:

SOLAR EVENT ON

ERUPTION TYPE

PROTON SPEED:

> 10 MeV PROTONS:

PEAK VALUES > 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS PEAK VALUES > 0.8 Me V ELECTRONS PEAK VALUES  
SAP/ SEP: 20130817

2 CMEs (AR 11817 and 11818)

appr 8300 km/ sec. 20130817/23 UTC- 201309/ 06 UTC 0.7 pfu. 20130816/0800- 20130910/ 2000 10.500 pfu. 20130816/0800- 20130910/ 2000 1.000.500 pfu.  
             

TYPE OF EVENT

DATE OF EVENT

Int CME Nr.:

impact on:

DESCRIPTION

              SOURCE: INTERNAL  REPORT / GOES DATA  

MINOR SEP & major filament eruption with FULLY HALO CME

20130820

35/ 13

20130822

A major filament eruption (=eruptive prominence) was observed on Aug 20- 2013 from the Southwestern quadrant at 9:30 UTC. The eruption occured along the southern edge of CH 580, where currently the most active regions are situated. The event was associated with a major CME that appeared as fully halo on SoHO imagery and will arrive sometime on Aug 22. ( due to NASA at 22 UTC).

AUGUST 20- 2013/ 00:24 UTC : MINOR SEP ( 2nd in just 4 days!) A strong eruption had occured on Aug 20 already soon after midnight with its main source at the backisde of the Sun, Nevertheless, the resulting CME had also front side parts and appeared fully halo on Stereo Ahead. THe course of that event was rather typical for a SEP, that usually spreads particles into all directions. This eruption however was likely the source of another proton increase ( SEP) registered on GOES after 18 UTC with values that reached 2 pfu on Aug 21. ( Those events are listed by NASA only from a strength of 10 pfu on upward.

 

M 3 flare and 2 FULLY HALO CMEs, aossociated with MINOR SEP

20130817/ 18:21 UTC

34/ 13 a,b

20130820 A MINOR SOLAR SAP was unleashed with a major M 3 LDE (proton) flare from large AR 11818 on 20130817 at 18:21 UTC. The associated CME was FULLY HALO (Earth directed) on SoHO imagery. First protons impacted in the geomagnetic field with appr. 8300 km/ sec. Introgeomagnetic PROTON flux slightly increased at 23 UTC above 0.8 pfu. : MINOR geomagnetic effects typical for SAPs will start all over again, and accompony us (at least!) throughout August 2013  
                                 
                                 

 

SAP = SOLAR LERATED PROTONS ( PARTICLES) - LATEST PROTON EVENTS & STORMS (SELDOM)

OLD TEMPLATE (2013)

this report includes SAP evens with EMISSION OF PROTON (either triggered by a solar proton flare or by a major interior or overall solar SAP event)

        PROTON DOMINANCE/START : PROTON DOMINANCE/ END ELECTRON DOMINANCE/START ELECTRON DOMINANCE/END    

 

 

 

 

 

> 10 MeV P. < 10 pfu.

> 10 MeV ELECT. > 1000 sfu

> 10 MeV ELECT. < 1000 sfu

 

 

SOLAR EVENT (SAP)

< 10 MeV

> 10 MeV

PROTON FLUX UNITS (pfu) (max. peak).

FIRST PROTON IMPACT ( EARTH)

PROTON IMPACT ( EARTH) END:

ELECTRON INCREASE/ BEGIN

ELECTRON INCREASE/LATENCY/ END

REMARKS

RELATED CME EVENTS:
PROTON FLARES
-- --
INTERPLANETARY INCREASE
AUGUST 12- 2013/ 23 UTC
30130817/ 06 UTC 20130816/ 08 UTC ongoing

several proton flaresfrom AR 11817 - 11819

 
PROTON STORM    
> 10 pfu < 100 pfu
20130621/ 23:00 UTC
30120628
( RESUMING FROM PREVIOUS SAP) 20130621
20130815

M 5 flare in AR 11777 on 20130621/ 03:42 UTC

28/13

PROTON STORM    
> 1000 pfu
20130522/ 13:00 UTC
20130528/ 13:00 UTC
20130526/ 12:00 UTC
20130617/ 18:00 UTC

strongest event observed since at least February 2005

25 a- d /13
PROTON STORM
   
(MAJOR) > 10 < 100 pfu
20130513/ 23:30 UTC
INTERRUPTED BY NEW SAP
INTERACTING WITH NEXT SAP
     
PROTONFLARE(?)
   
(minor) > 0.1 < 1.0 pfu
20130425/00 UTC
20130426/00 UTC
/DELAYED( APRIL 26/ 10 UTC
MAY- 14/ 08 UTC
( INTERRUPTED BY NEW PROTON EVENT)
 
PROTON STORM    
(minor) > 0.1 < 1.0 pfu
20130421/ 9:00 UTC
20130423 / 12 UTC
DELAYED BY NEW P- Storm
----
)
 
PROTON STORM    
> 100 pfu (x 1000)
20130411/ 7:14
DECREASING
       
PROTON STORM
   
> 10 pfu ( x 100)
20130315/ 18 UTC
20130318/ 20 UTC
20130320
APRIL 06- 2013
   
PROTON STORM*    
LOW (x1,5 only)
20130305/ 18 UTC
20130311
interfered by new events    
PROTON STORM*    
LOW (x10)
20130227/ 01 UTC
20130228/18 UTC
geomagnetic storming      
INTERPLANETARY    
fluctuating
20130224/ 06 UTC
20130226
INTERFERING
     
INTERPLANETARY    
fluctuationg
20130213/ 10 UTC
20130216/ 18 UTC
geomag(
low energy Protons
   
PROTON FLARE
   
low
20130207/ 06 UTC
20130209
20130208/ 06 UTC
interfering
   
INTERPLANETARY    

10 x

20130202( 04 UTC 20130203decreasing INTERFERING WITH EVENT ON FEB 07    
PROTON STORM    

2 pfu

20130117/ 17 UTC

JAN- 18 / 10 UTC JAN- 20 JAN 25 ( interfered with CME arrival and CH HSS    
PROTON FLARE    

100x/ flare

20130111/ 21 UTC

JAN/ 12/ 06 UTC JAN/ 13/09 UTC ongoing    
PROTON STORM    

02 pfu

20121108

NOV- 12

NOV- 14/ 16 UTC NOV 24 (by CME arrivals)    
                   

 

 

COMING SOON: VIDEO ARCHIVE FROM MY YOUTUBE VIDEO CHANNEL

 

 

 

RELATED SATELLITE DATA PLOTS ( ABOUT REAL TIME PLOTS )    
     
BELOW: GOES 13 / real time geomagnetic PROTON FLUX( click on images to enlare them!) BELOW: GOES 13 / real time geomagnetic ELECTRON FLUX( click on images to enlare them!) BELOW: GOES 13 / real time SOLAR X- RAY FLUX ( Flares, CMEs) ( click on images to enlare them!)
     
   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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