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. open source earthquake forecast project - Start - since May 2011- daily updated
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background img.: WIKIPEDIA/ Commons/ Aurora Borealis Poster click here for my archive with earth directed CMEs and SEPs 2013  

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last updated on:
2014
APRIL 18 - 2014
             
JULY- 10- 2013- I am busy ! - TODAY`S update will be late today likely in the afternoon!!
   
DATE:
16.07.2017
click here to get to the central project page "SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG" alien-homepage.de/

 

24th 11 YEAR SUN SPOT CYCLE-

MAXIMUM ACTIVITY IN 2012/ 13/ ff.

According to NASA, this 24th. 11 year sun spot cycle has probably a " twin peak"- the second in 2015. This project therefore will be prolongued.

SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG / CMEs and SEPs in 2014

archive of Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) and Solar Accelerated (Energetic) Particle/ Proton events (SEP) 2014 ^SoHO - LASCO C3
                        find all completed solar and terrestrial blogs from 2010- 2013 ff. at: alien-homepage.de. ARCHIVES/ central access >  

 

 

SOLAR AND TERRESTRIAL BLOG/ CONTENTS:
solar terrestrial blog/ START
solar terrestrial blog/ latest events
solar terrestrial blogs/ event logs/ 2014
related pages:
NASA/ SATELLITE PROGRAMM
Canary Islands volcano event blog & Forum
first evaluations (2010- 2012):
First evaluations of solar- terrestrial events
first evaluations/ special reports
ARCHIVES:

CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS and SAPS- archives

EXTERNAL AND INTERNAL SOURCES RELATED TO THIS PROJECT:

 

ESSENTIAL SOURCES ON SOLAR ACTIVITIES; Satellite Real Time images and data plots, weblinks etc....click here to expand and close to read all..
SECTION: LATEST INFORMATION ON SOLAR ACTIVITIES EVENT RELATED INTERPLANETARY & GEOMAGNETIC DATA PLOTS IMAGES OR VIDEO SOURCES:
(1) SOLAR REAL TIME / CURRENT SATELLITE DATA AND EVENTS  

 

 

       

REAL TIME images links for current views on the sun surface- click to enlarge

             

HOW SOLAR ACTIVITY REPORTS ARE COMMONLY MADE:

SOLAR (NEAR) REAL TIME images as provided by satellites such as SDO, STEREO and SoHO are the first main source on Solar activity data: Various telescopes imaging different levels of frequencies can make sun spots, active regions visoiblöe as well as coronal holes and solar eruptions: solar prominences, flares and associated CMEs ( one exception are proton emissions those remain invisible on any usal imagery. Protons emissions and storms can be measured withe certain instruments instead ( GOES)

Second step is the interplanetary space and solar magnetic field . The Advanced Composition Explorer ( ACE) is "situated" on an geosynchronous orbit outside the geomagnetic field . This satellite has only measurement instruments onboard those deliver various data about the composition of the solar wind. Solar winds blow and circulate regularly through the interplanatary space . Coronal mass ejections and other extraordinary solar events eruptions throw large amounts of solar matter into the interplanetary space . ACE can deliver first data , how strong a possibly earth directed CME might be 1 - 2 days before those CMEs impact and answer the first primary question associated to any CME: Has the main CMEa positive or negative "POLARITY "-( =AN ESPECIAL - PROTON or ELECTRON charge)? means: is the incoming CME NEUTRAL, has it higher accelerated PROTONs or ELECTRONS. THis first question (which one of the two antagonists- the proton or electrons arrives first) determines whether a CME can fully impact into the geomagnetic field or almost NOT AT ALL!

Last not least, in the third step, the GEOSTATIONARY GOES SATELLITES measure what INDEED IMPACTS INTO THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD, basic for all space weather forecasts and forceasts as this one on my page, how strong EARTH DIRECTED CMES might unfluence nature and human civilisation!

-Go to "SOLAR CONTROL CENTER to find out more about these solar observatories or click on the many links on this page to get fisst hand informations!-

SOLAR REAL TIME SAT IMAGES : note also: SDO, SOHO C3 and STEREO (360° VIEW°) REAL TIME IMAGES ON TOP OF THAT PAGE! VARIOUS SOURCES:
GOES / CORONAL HOLES: SoHO/ L2 REAL TIME SDO/ AIA- REAL TIME ACTIVE REGIONS TODAY:
(1) STEREO-"AHEAD" (2) SoHO/ LASCO C 2 (3) SDO /AIA-comp (4) SDO/ HMI
SOLAR REAL TIME SAT PLOTS     RECENT SOLAR ACTIVITY ( by solen.info):
INTERPLANETARY ( SOLAR MAGN FIELD        
ACE/ INTERPLANETARY PROTONS ACE/ INTERPLANETARY ELECTRONS MOSCOW/ cosmic rays- NEUTRON FLUX: SoHO / REAL TIME SOLAR WINDS
^ACE/ EPAMp 7 days plot ^ACE/ EPAMe 7 days plot  
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD:    
NOAA PLOTS / PROTONS NOAA/ 3 days geomagnetic electron flux Aurora borealis INTERPLANETARY SOLAR WIND GEOMAGNETIC FIELD (all)
  ACE / ADVANCED COMPOSITION EXPLORER GOES (GEOSTATIONARY OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL SATELLITES)
ACE- INTERPLANETARY SOLAR WIND GOEShp/ Geomag
  GOES/ X-RAY FLUX
ACE/SIS: PROTONS GOES/ ELECTRONS
MOSCOW/ NEUTRONS GOES/ PROTON FLUX
   
       

VARIOUS EXTERNAL SOURCES (CME EVOLUTION )

   

NASA/ISWA/animation of interplanetary CME evolution a.m.o.:

 

 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
     

PROTON EVENTS (SAP/ SEP)

the Earth`s geomagnetic field electrons might defend the Earth even against CMEs from a X 10 flare, what poses the likely only danger , is the attack "from the other side" know as "protons events"

about:

ABOUT: SOLAR PROTON EMISSIONS (proton flares or storms etc. ) ARE RARE EVENTS . But- differently to the mostly of negative charged (electrons) CMEs , PROTON CMEs effect (finally by associated energetic events) until deep into the ground and the Earth`s interior. Proton emissions impact fully into the (negatively charged) geomagnetic field by their positive electric charge and add a positive component to it, what makes the geomag. field TEMPORARELY then also vulnerable especially for following negatively charged CMEs . The protons themselves have paradox effects: first they swallow many electrons (likely reacting with them to neutrons what causes first a "geomagnetic depression" with lower field density (lessactive, free electrons) and paradox ANTIENERGETIC effects (best describable as the "calm prior to the storm" ) .. read more in text box above

TERRESTRIAL/ ATMOSPHERIC ( MAINLY SEP) IMPACTS:

       
NASA/ NOAA: D-RAP Global (1 dB ABS) IMPACT OF SOLAR PROTONS AND X- RAYS     Magn complexity/ particle acceleration

<< Global D-Region Absorption Prediction Documentation:

Long-range communications using high frequency (HF) radio waves (3 - 30 MHz) depend on reflection of the signals in the ionosphere. Radio waves are typically reflected near the peak of the F2 layer (~300 km altitude), but along the path to the F2 peak and back the radio wave signal suffers attenuation due to absorption by the intervening ionosphere.

Absorption is the process by which the energy of radio waves is converted into heat and electromagnetic (EM) noise through interactions between the radio wave, ionospheric electrons, and the neutral atmosphere (for a more extensive description of the absorption process see Davies, 1990). Most of the absorption occurs in the ionospheric D region (50–90 km altitude) where the product of the electron density and the electron-neutral collision frequency attains a maximum...

The precipitation of protons (as well as other ions) into the earth’s atmosphere during the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events can also create significant enhancements of ionospheric electron densities in the D region. Solar protons with energies between 1 to 200 MeV are primarily responsible for most of ionization of the D region and, consequently, for the ionospheric absorption of HF radio waves. Because of shielding of the earth by its magnetic field SEPs find easy access to the atmosphere only in high latitude regions around the earth’s geomagnetic poles. Such occurrences are therefore termed Polar Cap Absorption (PCA) events....read more...

                       
                       
                       
(INTERNAL) EARTHQUAKE AND GLOBAL VOLCANO ACTIVITIES (volcano maps, plots)

INTERACTIVE REGIONAL VOLCANO MAPS by: alien-homepage.de

all volcanoes worldwide, weekly updated global activity status ( GVP) with webcams and many informations!

 

 
NORTHERN AMERICA Central America, Mexico and Caribic South America- Northern part

South America- Southern part

 

Africa and Arabic peninsula

 

Europe, Western Asia Kamchatka peninsula, Aleutian islands

Indonesia and Philippines

Japan, Mariana Islands- Kyril islands

S- W-Pacific region/ Australia

 
 
click here, to get to an interactive GLOBAL volcano map with names and labels  

EARTHQUAKE STATISTICS 2013 : (CURRENT MONTH)

 
 
" EARTHQUAKE STATISTICS" ( 2013)_ COMBINED STATISTICAL PLOT WITH STRONGEST EARTHQUAKES. EQ FREQUENCIES AND SOLAR ACTIVITY  
CLICK HERE FOR INTERNATIONAL MEDIA AND NEWS SOURCES & OTHER EXTERNAL LINKS- DAILY NEWS FROM WHERE IT HAPPENS!

NEWS CHANNELS:

( collecting of recommendable international news channels is still ongoing...): Note: This list is dedicated to get latest informations directly from regional news channels and sources all over the world . Alien-homepage does not take any responsibility for contents of websites posted on this list nor for their liability

 

AUSTRALIA, INDONESIA, PHILIPPINES

AFRICA

ASIA

AMERICA

EUROPE:

 
THE HERALD SUN / AUSTRALIA africareview.com   MSNBC / US BBC.com  
globalpost.       www.euronews.com/  

BY COUNTRIES:

 

EUROPE:

ICELAND REVIEW ONLINE DER SPIEGEL ONLINE ( Germany) euronews.com/ englishrussia (Russia)  
  icenews.is (ICELAND)        

 

scotsman.com

ruvr.ru (Russia)

     

AUSTRALIA REGION:

THE HERALD SUN / AUSTRALIA .radioaustralianews.net.au (FIJI ISLANDS): fijivillage.com  

 

stuff.co.nz (NEW ZEALAND) solomontimes.com (SALOMON ISLANDS) fijitimes.com    

NORTHERN AMERICA

CNN. com TIME.com /SCIENCE (SCIENTIFIC) tgdaily.com  

 

UNITED PRESS INTERNATIONAL ABC- news GLOBAL NEWS (CANADA) winnipegfreepress.com  
  mlive.com/news        

 

washingtonpost.com channel6newsonline.com FAIRBANKS/ ALASKA/ newsminer.com alaskadispatch.com  

CENTRAL AMERICA>

INSIDE COSTA RICA ticotimes.net ( COSTA RICA) costaricantimes aztecanoticias.com ( MEXICO( Spanish language)  
  dominicantoday.com (Dominican Republik)        

SOUTHERN AMERICA>

peruthisweek (PERU) .andina.com (PERU)      

PACIFIC

bigislandvideonews (Hawaii)

       

AFRICA

www.aps.dz (ALGERIA) allafrica.com standardmedia.co.ke (KENIA) ZIMBABWE (Voice of America)  
        .thezimbabwean.co.uk  

> ARABIA

ARABIC EMIRATES omanobserver.om www.iranwpd.co (IRAN) IRAN/ ENGLISH presstv.ir/  

ASIA

Wijeya Newspapers Ltd.Colombo. Sri Lanka philippinenews.com english.ntdtv.com (CHINA) THE BORNEO POST- ONLINE  
  Thejakartapost.com (INDONESIA) philstar.com/(PHILIPPINES) zeenews.india.com (INDIA)

chinadaily.com.cn/ (China)

 
  pattayamail.com (Thailand) visayandailystar.com (PHIL.)

indianexpress.com ( INDIA)

mdn.mainichi.jp (JAPAN)  
  vietnamnet.vn (VIETAM) shanghaidaily.com (CHINA) thehindu.com blogs.wsj.com (JAPAN)  
  fukushima-diary.com (best news on Japan`s meltdown!) gmanetwork (PHILIPPINES) punemirror ( NORTHERN INDIA) focustaiwan (TAIWAN)  
      greaterkashmir.com    

ALL REGIONS>

REUTERS.COM wunderground.com/tropical storms Earth Observatory( NASA.    
  http://your-story.org        
           
GLÖBAL WATCH > thewatchers.adorraeli.com earthquake-report.com      
VARIOUS & RELATED SCIENTIFIC CHANNELS > spaceweather.com treehugger.com VOLCANO DISCOVERY EARTH SKY. ORG  
  ACCU WEATHER. COM wired.com/wired science WUNDERGROUND.com Nationalgeographic  
  science.nasa.gov spaceweather.com wired.com phys.org  
ORGANISATIONS NASA/earthobservatory http://www.greenpeace.de/   http://foodwatch.com.au/  
DIVERSE> 2012 Mysterious Mass Animal Death List (abovetopsecret.com) poleshift.ning.com naturalnews.com (food etc)  
  Volcano Webcams on wiredscience.com eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov Polar Science Center  
LAST NOTICES AND EVENTS:   (internal) latest CME global impact map-(click on image to enlarge it )^^
                                 
Significant SEPs (Solar proton events) since 2014: ( > 10 Me V protons exceeding 10 pfu.)
Inhalt
   

20170714/ after 03 UTC: The first major proton event since 1014. The source of the event likely was AR 23655 which was increasingly active over the past days and weeks.

warming effects of incoming protons on earth mantle may lead to higher magmatic intrusion/ activities volcanic hot spots in the eastern and central pacific such as Hawaii. Rather nothing to worry about but with the low activity level in the last years the effects of the event might become unusual strong.

 
NASA/Stereo Ahead COR 2 Telescope: SOlar gases heated up by the proton emission ( The solar event started some earlier than 1: 54 UTC on 20170714: GOES Proton flux into earth orbit and GM field: NASA D_RAP/: Impact of protons from solar protons event / 20170714 on geomagnetic poles: SDO/ 20170714/ 02:05 UTC:  
     

         
<< The solar event started some earlier than 1: 54 UTC on 20170714. The center of the explosion- AR 23655 was not on the solar meridian, so protons emitted towards the earth are slown down by solor coronal gases - >> First protons (see GOES protons flux) on earth arrived about 1 hour later with about 1/ 7 of the speed of light, resp. with about 41.666 km/ second (150.000.000 km : 3600 sec.)    
                       
 
 
register card CLICK HERE TO OPEN AND CLOSE COLLAPSIBLE PANEL WITH INFORMATION ON LATEST CME EVENTS AND TERRESTRIAL IMPACT ANALYSIS- JULY- DECEMBER 2014
     
LATEST MAJOR& EARTH DIRECTED SOLAR CME /SEP
   
               

CME (DATE)

CME AT (UTC) 20140604/ after 18 UTC Satellite Date and Time >   NOAA REPORTS: CME EVENT TYPE: DATA PLOTS:   SOLAR CME EVENT LOG :  
(01) SDO/ AIA (02) SDO/ AIA (03) STEREO "B"/ COR2 (04) STEREO "A"/ COR2 (05) SoHO/ LASCO C3 X-RAY CLASS: ERUPTION TYPE: GOES PROTON flux (1) GOES X-ray flux (1)

CME (DATE AND TIME of SOLAR EVENT

 
      flare    
DIRECTION/ EARTH TRACKING NR.:  
TYPE II RADIO EMISSIONS:      
ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME: ACTIVE REGION:  
     
10 cm RADIO BURSTS:S   SUN COORDINATES:  
  INITIAL PROTON SPEED ---
20140708/ 16: 37 UTC       20140708/ 21:15 UTC   ^^ proton flux- 2014 ^x- ray flux/ 2014    
                     
CME/ SEP ARRIVAL > PROTON EVENT (/SEP) FIRST PROTON ARRIVAL: --- CME RRIVAL (GOES) : IMPACT LONGITUDES (> 100 pfu) MINOR IMPACT REGIONS (GEOGR:) IMPACT LONGITUDES (maximal) MAJOR IMPACT REGIONS (GEOGR:)  
SOLAR EVENT /TIME)   resulting initial PROTON SPEED> none            
MAXIMAL IMPACT STRENGTH:        
         
                   
 
                     

 

 

   
LATEST MAJOR& EARTH DIRECTED SOLAR CME /SEP
   
               

CME (DATE)

CME AT (UTC) 20140604/ after 18 UTC Satellite Date and Time >   NOAA REPORTS: CME EVENT TYPE: DATA PLOTS:   SOLAR CME EVENT LOG :  
(01) SDO/ AIA (02) SDO/ AIA (03) STEREO "B"/ COR2 (04) STEREO "A"/ COR2 (05) SoHO/ LASCO C3 X-RAY CLASS: ERUPTION TYPE: GOES PROTON flux (1) GOES X-ray flux (1)

CME (DATE AND TIME of SOLAR EVENT

 
  FILAMENT ERUPTION 20140604/ after 18 UTC  
DIRECTION/ EARTH TRACKING NR.:  
TYPE II RADIO EMISSIONS: FULLY HALO 07/14  
ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME: ACTIVE REGION:  
20140607 SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT  
10 cm RADIO BURSTS:S   SUN COORDINATES:  
  INITIAL PROTON SPEED ---
20140604/20:14 UTC
20140604/ 19:54 UTC 20140604/ 18:54 UTC 20140604/ 21:30 UTC   ^^ proton flux- 2014 ^x- ray flux/ 2014    
                     
CME/ SEP ARRIVAL > PROTON EVENT (/SEP) FIRST PROTON ARRIVAL: --- CME RRIVAL (GOES) : IMPACT LONGITUDES (> 100 pfu) MINOR IMPACT REGIONS (GEOGR:) IMPACT LONGITUDES (maximal) MAJOR IMPACT REGIONS (GEOGR:)  
SOLAR EVENT /TIME) 20140604/ after 18 UTC resulting initial PROTON SPEED> none 20140607/ 16:57 UTC 12- 02 UTC(Ju 8) US PACIFIC COAST / MAINLY CA REGION 18 UTC PACIFIC  
MAXIMAL IMPACT STRENGTH:        
    160 nT    
                   
 
                     
                       
                       
register card CLICK HERE TO OPEN AND CLOSE COLLAPSIBLE PANEL WITH INFORMATION ON LATEST CME EVENTS AND TERRESTRIAL IMPACT ANALYSIS- JANUARY- JUNE- 2014-
     
LATEST SOLAR CME EVENT LOG :
   

 

 

               
SOLAR EVENT LOG (flares, CMEs, SEPs)
   

 

 

               
SOLAR EVENT LOG (flares, CMEs, SEPs)
   
               

CME (DATE)

CME AT (UTC) 20140604/ after 18 UTC Satellite Date and Time >   NOAA REPORTS: CME EVENT TYPE: DATA PLOTS:   SOLAR CME EVENT LOG :  
(01) SDO/ AIA (02) SDO/ AIA (03) STEREO "B"/ COR2 (04) STEREO "A"/ COR2 (05) SoHO/ LASCO C3 X-RAY CLASS: ERUPTION TYPE: GOES PROTON flux (1) GOES X-ray flux (1)

CME (DATE AND TIME of SOLAR EVENT

 
  FILAMENT ERUPTION 20140604/ after 18 UTC  
DIRECTION/ EARTH TRACKING NR.:  
TYPE II RADIO EMISSIONS: FULLY HALO 07/14  
ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME: ACTIVE REGION:  
20140607 SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT  
10 cm RADIO BURSTS:S   SUN COORDINATES:  
  INITIAL PROTON SPEED ---
20140604/20:14 UTC
20140604/ 19:54 UTC 20140604/ 18:54 UTC 20140604/ 21:30 UTC   ^^ proton flux- 2014 ^x- ray flux/ 2014    
                     
CME/ SEP ARRIVAL > PROTON EVENT (/SEP) FIRST PROTON ARRIVAL: --- CME RRIVAL (GOES) : IMPACT LONGITUDES (> 100 pfu) MINOR IMPACT REGIONS (GEOGR:) IMPACT LONGITUDES (maximal) MAJOR IMPACT REGIONS (GEOGR:)  
SOLAR EVENT /TIME) 20140604/ after 18 UTC resulting initial PROTON SPEED> none 20140607/ 16:57 UTC 12- 02 UTC(Ju 8) US PACIFIC COAST / MAINLY CA REGION 18 UTC PACIFIC  
MAXIMAL IMPACT STRENGTH:        
    160 nT    

LATEST AND CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE SOLAR & TERRESTRIAL EVENTS

LAST UPDATE

20140608  

find all previous reports in my 2014 event logs and associated archives

 

 

 

                   
a larger cluster of sun spots rotated in at begin of June 2014, which was already present during previous rotation periods. The review of data on solen. info shows, that this cluster became (again?) visible on the solar surface on March 19 2014. This cluster was very active during the previous rotation period and AR 12036 as its largest active region had produced the latest high speed proton SEP on March 18- 2014 . The cluster decayed since then and is much smaller now.I don`t know, wether it is still capable to produce another SEP
     
          ^NASA/ISWA/animation of interplanetary CME evolution a.m.o  
               

CME (DATE)

CME AT (UTC) 20140418/ 13:19 UTC Satellite Date and Time >   NOAA REPORTS: CME EVENT TYPE: DATA PLOTS:   SOLAR CME EVENT LOG :  
(01) SDO/ AIA (02) SDO/ AIA (03) STEREO "B"/ COR2 (04) STEREO "A"/ COR2 (05) SoHO/ LASCO C3 X-RAY CLASS: ERUPTION TYPE: GOES PROTON flux (1) GOES X-ray flux (1)

CME (DATE AND TIME of SOLAR EVENT

 
  SEP,M 8 LDE FLARE & CME 20140418/  
DIRECTION/ EARTH TRACKING NR.:  
TYPE II RADIO EMISSIONS: FULLY HALO 06/14  
ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME: ACTIVE REGION:  
20140420 12036 ( ass to 35- 37)  
10 cm RADIO BURSTS:S   SUN COORDINATES:  
  INITIAL PROTON SPEED S17W26
20140418/ 13:19 UTC   20140418/ 15:10 UTC 20140418/ 14:39 UTC 20140418/ 15:42 UTC   ^^ proton flux- 20140329- 31 ^x- ray flux/ 20130329- 31    
                     
CME/ SEP ARRIVAL > PROTON EVENT (/SEP) FIRST PROTON ARRIVAL: 20140418/ 13:20 UTC CME RRIVAL (GOES) : IMPACT LONGITUDES (> 100 pfu) MINOR IMPACT REGIONS (GEOGR:) IMPACT LONGITUDES (maximal) MAJOR IMPACT REGIONS (GEOGR:)  
SOLAR EVENT /TIME) 20140418/ 13:06 UTC resulting initial PROTON SPEED> near to speed of light (c)!! expected on 20140420 ----        
MAXIMAL IMPACT STRENGTH:                    

REPORT ON LATEST EARTH DIRECTED CME OR SEP >

INTERNAL REPORTS:
   
NOAA ALERTS: ( below) Another major solar SEP associated to an M8 LED flare and full halo CME ( coronal mass ejection) occured today ( 20140418) after 13 UTC from active solar region AR 12036 near to the Central solar meridian. Most interestingly, this protons now first time impacted not on the Southern pole, but on the Northern Pole ( see NASA D- Rap thermal imaige below. This could be and indicator for a magnetic flip, that was expected to happen on the sun and at the same time on the earth magnetic field . That would be not such a big thing. as this polarity is just created by the Earth own rotation and can shift from South to North just if the gravity core on the sun shift a bit more South or Northwards . But it also may be, that the impacting protons reacted / were attrackted this time by the strong electron field that has accumuled as usually after the recent SEPs around the Northern Pole.the DRAP graph on 20140419 shows that this theory seems to be correct as heating up effects now are also increasing around the Southern Pole- as usual during proton impacts.  
 
 
     
     
LATEST SOLAR CME EVENT LOG :
   
               

CME (DATE)

CME AT (UTC) CME CLUSTER AFTER SEP EVENT/ Satellite Date and Time >              
(01) SDO/ AIA (02) SDO/ AIA (03) SDO/ AIA (04) SDO/ AIA (05) SDO/ AIA (06) SDO/ AIA (07) SDO/ AIA GOES PROTON flux (1) GOES X-ray flux (1) SOLAR CME EVENT LOG :  
         

CME (DATE AND TIME of SOLAR EVENT

 
CME cluster: 20140329- 20140403  
TRACKING NR.:  
05/14 a- x  
ACTIVE REGION:  
12015, 19, 21  
SUN COORDINATES:
        (01) 20140401/ 15:26 UTC (2) 20140402/ 14:11 UTC   ^^ proton flux- 20140329- 31 ^x- ray flux/ 20130329- 31 see daily report  
(01) STEREO "A"/ COR2 (02) STEREO "A"/ COR2 (03) STEREO "A"/ COR2 (04) STEREO "A"/ COR2 (05) STEREO "A"/ COR2 (06) STEREO "A"/ COR2 (07) STEREO "A"/ COR2 GOES PROTON flux( 2) GOES X-ray flux( 2) ERUPTION TYPE:  
  SEP, FLARE, FE*- LDE FLARE  
X-RAY CLASS:
TYPE II RADIO EMISSIONS:
20140329/ 01:08 UTC 20140329/ 09:39 UTC 20140329/ 19:24 UTC 20140330/ 15:08 UTC 20140401/ 21: 24 UTC 20140402/ 15:24 UTC   ^^ proton flux- 20140328- 30 ^^ AR AND CH- STARMAP by solen.info TYPE IV RADIO EMISSIONS:  
(01) SoHO/ LASCO C3 (02) SoHO/ LASCO C3 (03) SoHO/ LASCO C3 (04) SoHO/ LASCO C3 (05) SoHO/ LASCO C3 (06) SoHO/ LASCO C3 (07) SoHO/ LASCO C3 GOES PROTON flux( 3) GOES X-ray flux( 3)  
   
10 cm RADIO BURSTS:S
DIRECTION/ EARTH
2 x partial. 2 x FULLY HALO
ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME:
20140329/ 03:06 UTC   20140329/ 21:30 UTC 20140330/ 17:18 UTC 20140401/ 21:43 UTC 20140402/ 15:30 UTC 20140402/ 17: 41 UTC     20140402- 04  

REPORT ON LATEST EARTH DIRECTED CME OR SEP >

INTERNAL REPORTS:
FE- filament eruption or prominence  
NOAA ALERTS: ( below)

I had not much time during the last week to check out satellite images for solar activities. The review I made today( March 03) showed, that also the two minor SEPs on March 25 and 29 TRIGGERED (as usually and observed after all major solar SEPs) a serial of stronger surface eruptions and CMEs (cluster) . there was an M 9 flare on March 29 ( image 3) hours after the SEP, that also was not noticed and reported by NOAA.

There is no any official regular informations about SEPs, but many solar watchers believe (allthough many SEPs can be observed without any synchronous flares or surface activity) that the proton eruption of an SEP is the same event as flares those mostly appear along with the event . But a real SEPs is - allthough it is the more or less only dangerous and strongly geoeffective type of solar eruption- what I call an "invisible eruption"

However ; images above (event Nr 1- 7) show several stronger CMEs going off into direction of the Earth after March 29 those will be regarded as one" cluster event" in my reports.

20140402: AR 12027- 29- the currently most active region produced a stronger LDE flare that peaked as an M 7 event around 13:30 UTC and triggered a major CME at 14: 11 UTC, that appeared low- medium strong but fully halo on SoHO

20140401: a minor filament eruption occured at the edge of AR 12021 near to the Central solar meridian at 15: 26 ( image 01) and triggered a very weak and faint fully halo CME, visibly on SoHO

 

 
 
 
     
     
LATEST SOLAR CME EVENT LOG :
   
STRONG X 4.9 flare associated to medium strong SEP (> 10 MeV Protons > 10 pfu, increasing on Feb 28 > 100 pfu.              

CME (DATE)

CME AT (UTC)   Satellite Date and Time >              

20140225

0.49

TYPE II RADIO EMISSIONS:
SDO/ AIA
STEREO/ A SDO/ AIA SoHO GOES PROTON flux: GOES X-ray flux:  
TRACKING NR.:

04/ 14, a

 
ACTIVE REGION:

AR 11990

 
DIRECTION/ EARTH FULLY HALO TYPE IV RADIO EMISSIONS:  

SUN COORDINATES:

 
80° E 13° S  

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

10 cm RADIO BURSTS:S  
MULTIPLE FLARE associated to SEP X4.9/2B (1) 20140225/ 1: 25 UTC 20140225/ 05:54 UTC 20140225/ 02:11 UTC 20140225/ 01: 42      

REPORT ON LATEST EARTH DIRECTED CME OR SEP >

 
NOAA/ X RAY ALERTS:

AR 11990 rotated in on the eastern limb on 20140222 and is very active. On 20140225, AR 11990 produced a LDE flare with a significant and fast CME, that peaked with an X4.9/2B event at 0:49. The event however was associated to a typical wide angled SEP Proton emission, that became obvious at 1:25 UTC ( image 1) Its unclear weather parts of this CME might reach the Earth. . As usual, the major SEP event triggererd numerous secondary minor eruptions in its neighborhood, those formed at all a fully halo CME on SoHO. First protons arrrived two hours later after the X 4.0 event shortly after 03 UTC and would have had had therfore a speed of appr. 20.661 km/ second. CME and SEPs dn`t occure simultanously as SEPs also don`t cause X ray bursts.Thus, the appearance of the SEP on the solar surface at 1:25 might rather be the begin of the proton emission. Ifs this is correct Protons would have a reached a speed of 27.000 km/ sec

update: Protons flux increased further and exceeded 100 pfu on 20140228 likely due to the major CME impact from this X 4 event

 
 
 
     

RELATED TERRESTRIAL CME TRACKING REPORT

       
GOES/ Geomagnetic field :
 

CME ARRIVAL

CME/ Nr.:

02/14

CME TRACKING >

APPROACHING >

ARRIVAL AT SAT (UTC):

 

 

ARRIVAL DATE:

AR LONG LAT.

SOLAR CME EVENTS

CME ERUPTION TIME /SUN)

ACE/ GOES

PEAK VALUE

   

20140227

11990 80° E 13° S LDE flare ass to SEP 20140225 0.49- 1:29 UTC 17:01 UTC 180 nT    
REMARKS:        
                 

TERRESTRIAL IMPACT >

 

 

MAIN GEOGRAPHIC IMPACT REGIONS    

> 100 nT

MAIN/ UTC

short impact report:

hz/ impact polarity:

WESTERN ATLANTIC, CENTRAL USA
WESTERN EUROPE,& AFRICA/ EASTERN ATLANTIC
   
27/ 12 - 28/ 02 UTC 16:30- 20:00 UTC neutral- negative SOUTH AMERICA
WESTEREN PACIFIC
   
00° W- 150° E
65° - 120" W

internal (relative) CME mass value:

               
   

 

 

                 
                       

 

 

 

                   
LATEST SOLAR CME EVENT LOG :
                 

CME

CME AT (UTC)

20140218/after 02:13 UTC

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

FEB 20- 21

         

Abbreviations:

 
TRACKING NR.:

03/ 14

SDO/ AIA STEREO/ A SDO/ AIA SoHO GOES PROTON flux: GOES X-ray flux:   LDE= Long Duration Event  
ACTIVE REGION:

NONE

   
DIRECTION/ EARTH FULLY HALO    

SUN COORDINATES:

   
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT    

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

   
filament eruption associated to SEP none    

 

SATELLITES >    
TYPE II RADIO EMISSION 20140214/ 12:39 UTC 20140218/ 06:09 UTC 20140218/ 02:11 UTC 20140218/ 05:18 integral Proton Flux increased after solar event on Feb 18 ^x-ray bg. flux again near C level on FEB 16- 18- 2014    
TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION

   
10 cm RADIO BURST    
         

 

 

                   
LATEST SOLAR CME EVENT LOG :
                 

CME CLUSTER

CME AT (UTC)

20140212/after 15 UTC

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

FEB 15

         

Abbreviations:

 
TRACKING NR.:

02/ 14

STEREO AHEAD COR 2 SOHO/ LASCO C3: SDO/ AIA SOHO/ LASCO C3: SOHO/ LASCO C3: SDO/ AIA   LDE= Long Duration Event  
ACTIVE REGION:

AR S3098

         
DIRECTION/ EARTH FULLY HALO    

SUN COORDINATES:

   
10° - 24° W 12° S    

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

   
flare and filament eruption M2    

 

SATELLITES > 20140212/ 15:54 UTC 20140212/ 19:06 UTC 20140212/ 17:10 UTC  

SDO was brought out of course by a stronger solar wind shock on Feb 12 after 13 UTC and submitted until 18 UTC only a few distorted images . Thus The real solar event is unclear, while the CME that impacted from the event on Feb 15 is one of the strongest observed in recent time

 
TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << NOAA SPACE WEATHER ALERTS NOAA/ X RAY EVENTS: INTERNAL REPORT ASS TO SEP EVENT  
TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION

 
10 cm RADIO BURST  
       
 
     
    DEFAULT IS: NONE                
RELATED EVENTS: :
                 
   

 

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

FEB 15

         

Abbreviations:

 
    STEREO AHEAD COR 2 SOHO/ LASCO C3: STEREO AHEAD COR 2 SOHO/ LASCO C3: SDO/ AIA SDO/ AIA   LDE= Long Duration Event  
         
   
   
   
   
   
    20140211/ 12:54 UTC   20140212/ 09:09 UTC 201401212/ 11:42 UTC 20140212/ 04:42 UTC        
TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << NOAA SPACE WEATHER ALERTS NOAA/ X RAY EVENTS: INTERNAL REPORT ASS TO SEP EVENT

 

   
TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION

     
10 cm RADIO BURST      
           
     
     
    DEFAULT IS: NONE                  
LATEST SOLAR CME EVENT LOG :
                 
20140130- 201402xx CME AT (UTC)

CME CLUSTER

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

FEB 01- ?

         

Abbreviations:

 
TRACKING NR.:

01/ 14, a- x

STEREO AHEAD COR 2 SOHO/ LASCO C3: SDO/ AIA SOHO/ LASCO C3: SOHO/ LASCO C3: SDO/ AIA   LDE= Long Duration Event  
ACTIVE REGION:

11967/68

         
DIRECTION/ EARTH

HALO

   

SUN COORDINATES:

   

 

 

   

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

   
MULTIPLE FLARES C1- M7    

 

SATELLITES > 20140130/ 21:24 UTC HALO: 20140130/ 20.30 UTC M7 / 20140130/ 17:41 UTC    

20140131/ 16:09

     
TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << NOAA SPACE WEATHER ALERTS NOAA/ X RAY EVENTS: INTERNAL REPORT ASS TO SEP EVENT

 

   
TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION

     
10 cm RADIO BURST      
           
     
     
20140130- 201402xx CME AT (UTC)

MAJOR CMEs from AR 11967/ 68:

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

FEB 01- ?

         

Abbreviations:

 
TRACKING NR.:

01/ 14, a- x

SDO/ AIA SDO/ AIA SDO/ AIA SDO/ AIA SOHO/ LASCO C3: SDO/ AIA   LDE= Long Duration Event  
ACTIVE REGION:

11967/68

         
       
DIRECTION/ EARTH

HALO

   

SUN COORDINATES:

   

 

 

   

ERUPTION TYPE:

X-RAY CLASS:

   
MULTIPLE FLARES C1- M7    
20140201/ 07:24 UTC   20140201/ 07:24 UTC 20140202/ 16:32 UTC 20140202/ 9:38 UTC 20140204/ 04:07 UTC          
20140202/ 16:32 UTC   STEREO AHEAD COR 2 STEREO AHEAD COR 2 STEREO AHEAD COR 2 STEREO AHEAD COR 2 STEREO AHEAD COR 2 STEREO AHEAD COR 2      
20140202/ 9:38 UTC                  

20140204/ 04:07 UTC

SATELLITES >   20140202/ 11:39 UTC            
    SOHO/ LASCO C3: SOHO/ LASCO C3: SOHO/ LASCO C3: SOHO/ LASCO C3: SOHO/ LASCO C3: SOHO/ LASCO C3:      
                     
                     
TYPE II RADIO EMISSION << NOAA SPACE WEATHER ALERTS NOAA/ X RAY EVENTS: INTERNAL REPORT ASS TO SEP EVENT

 

   
TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION

     
10 cm RADIO BURST      
           
     
     
                       
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AND CLOSE COLLAPSIBLE PANEL WITH INFORMATION ON LATEST SEP/ SAP( solar energetic/ or accelerated particles/ protons) AND TERRESTRIAL IMPACT ANALYSIS
                 
INTEGRAL 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)
20140413/ 10 UTC 20140418
 
 

INTERFRED BY NEW SEP

EVENT RELATED INTEGRAL PROTON FLUX/ 20140404- 06  

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:
 
SEP event > 10 MeV PROTON EMISSION ( most probable source:) multiple minor Proton flares in AR 12027 20140405/ 19 UTC 20140409/00 UTC 1 pfu not evaluated protons active within Earth core  
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:
 
INTEGRAL>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)
knocked down  
 
 

interfered by interplanetary protonflux

 
INTEGRAL 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)
knocked down  
 
 

interfered by interplanetary protonflux

 
        D_RAP/ GLOBAL PROTON IMPACT >  
       

 

 

             
SEP EVENT/ event log       INTEGRAL PROTON FLUX>>    

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:    
SEP event > 10 MeV PROTON EMISSION

only short an minor event

20140329/ 19 UTC 20140330/ 15 UTC 3 pfu (minor) not evaluated overlasped by new event    
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  
 
INTEGRAL>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)
knocked down  
 
 

interfered by interplanetary protonflux

   
INTEGRAL 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)
knocked down  
 
 

interfered by interplanetary protonflux

   
        D_RAP/ GLOBAL PROTON IMPACT >    

orange background = actitiy is PENDING, LATENT OR INTERFERED BY NEW SEP event-

yellow= this particles are currently active/ dominant red= strong event    
               
SEP EVENT/ event log       INTEGRAL PROTON FLUX>>  
 

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:    
SEP event > 10 MeV PROTON EMISSION

no researched yet

20140325/05:00 UTC 20140326/ 12 UTC 1 pfu (minor) not evaluated protons still active within Earth environment    
               
LATEST SEP EVENT/ event log       INTEGRAL PROTON FLUX>>  
 

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:    
SEP event > 10 MeV PROTONS

20140225/ 0.49 UTC X 4.2/ 2B event on eastern limb

20140225/ 06 UTC

appr. 20140308/ 00 UTC

> 0.1 > 20/ 100 pfu.

20.661 - 26.000 km/ s

proton flux exceeded 100 pfu upon CME arrival on 20140228

   
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:    
INTEGRAL>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)
not yet  
 
 

interfered by interplanetary protonflux

 
 
INTEGRAL 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)
not yet  
 
 

interfered by interplanetary protonflux

   
        D_RAP/ GLOBAL PROTON IMPACT >    

 

 

             
               
LATEST SEP EVENT/ event log    
 

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:  
 
SEP event > 10 MeV PROTONS

filament eruption associated to SEP on 20140218/ after 02 uTC

20140225/ 03 UTC

ongoing

> 0.1 > 1.0 pfu.

 

 

   
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:    
INTEGRAL>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)
interfered by succeeding SEP
 
 

interfered by interplanetary protonflux

   
INTEGRAL 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)
interfered by succeeding SEP
 
 

interfered by interplanetary protonflux

   
               

 

 

               
               
                 
SEP EVENT/ event log

 

   

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS:    
SEP event > 10 MeV PROTONS

X 1,2 2 N Flare & CME after SEP/ 20140107/18 UTC

20140107/ 19 UTC

20140114/ 14 UTC

+/ - 1000 pfu.

near the speed of light

the exact P-speed is not evaluated yet

   
SEP event 10 MeV PROTONS

associated to major flaring in AR 11944

20140106/ 06 UTC

overlapsed by following SEP

> 30 pfu.

 

solar event could not certainly be evaluated

   
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS BEGIN: END: PEAK VALUES:   REMARKS:  
 
INTEGRAL>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)
20140212 ongoing
 
 

interfered by interplanetary protonflux

 
INTEGRAL 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold= E > 1.000 pfu)
 
 
 
 

wqw long time interfered by interplanetary protonflux

 

20140125: A New SEP with an X 1,2 flare occured at 18:52 and knocked the > 10 MEV Electrons immidiately down to almost zero. Intergral proton flux increased further to more than 100 pfu at around 19 UTC- roughly 10- 15 minutes after the (suspected!!) SEP event time ( Its not certain whether it went of simultanously with the CME at 18:52!HOWEVER: If, then Proton speed would have reached more than 1/ 2 or even 2/ 3 of the speed of light

 
                 
                       

 

 

COMING SOON: VIDEO ARCHIVE FROM MY YOUTUBE VIDEO CHANNEL

 

 

 

RELATED SATELLITE DATA PLOTS ( NEAR REAL TIME PLOTS )    
     
BELOW: GOES 13 / real time geomagnetic PROTON FLUX( click on images to enlarge them!) BELOW: GOES 13 / real time geomagnetic ELECTRON FLUX( click on images to enlarge them!) BELOW: GOES 13 / real time SOLAR X- RAY FLUX ( Flares, CMEs) ( click on images to enlarge them!)
     
   

 

 

   

 

 

               
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL DATA AND EVENTS
solar data by: solen.info NASA/  
latest data (external sources):
SUN OBSERVERS:
OTHERS:
 
                       

AUG 2014: DAILY SOLAR REVIEWS ARE BEING REDUCED TO SIGNIFICANT SOLAR ACTIVITY DEVELOPMENTS !

means: you find only full reports, that cover all related data, if stronger activities occure. Some monthly archives might therefor contain only one daily review,. others might contain more. depending on the evolution of solar sun spot activity after the peak was reached on 2013

 
     

 

 

               
                 

2015

MONTH

JANUARY

DAY:

none yet xx

< date refers to available event data and summaries

click here for previous days reports  

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

note: solar and terrestrial data are always yesterrday`s values!

201412

ACTIVE REGIONS AND CORONAL HOLES AT 23:45 UTC (solen.info)  

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

 

 

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)  

FLARES >

C

   

SOLAR FLUX (sfu.)

 

 

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:    

M

   

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

 

 

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:    

X

 

 
                 
Today`s RSGA/ USAF - report on solar activity >    
         

 

 

     

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS INVOLVED IN MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITIES, CMEs OR SEPS ( other active regions are not posted)

EARTH DIRECTED CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

CLICK HERE FOR LATEST EARTH DIRECTED CMES AND SEP EVENTS (archives)  

STATUS :

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

       

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

 

(SUNSPOTS AFTER 24 UTC)

LONGITUDE next 24 h.

LATITUDE

CLASS/ CONF.*

MAJOR ACTIVITIES:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

EXP. I. MPACT SIZE:

 
                   
 
                   
 

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

            ---
 
solen/info/ active regions>
           
             
 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 
NUMBER POSITION*: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING MAG &remarks  
             
             
             
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

 
ABBREVIATIONS>
NORTH/ SOUTH POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP/ SP CH- EXT)
UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH
RECURR.= RECURRENT
T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL
 

 

 

               
INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX:
               
                     

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT : LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:    
PROTON FLUX back to normal

 

ELECTRON FLUX  

 

   
               
BEGIN/ END:  

 

 

BEGIN/ END:    

 

 

   
   
ACE ( Advanced Composition Explorer) is on and L 1 orbit at the edge between solar and geomagnetic field and measures the intensity and composition of interplanetary solar winds
 
 

 

 

 

           

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

                 

STATUS:

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES 3 day sat environment ( combined plot) GOES integral ELECTRON FLUX- past 3 days* integral proton flux- past 3 days  

QUIET

         

UNSETTLED

 
ACTIVE  
MINOR STORM  

MAJOR STORM

 
HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS  
CME IMPACT/ EFFECTS  
 
 
* see also report below!
 
USAF report on geophysical activity for previous day:>>        
* graph only during significant events
 
       
                       
                     
GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -06 nT (USAF) NEUTRAL NORTHWARD +06 nT (USAF) The Bz component is the value, the geomagnetic field density fluctuates /shifts in North/ South direction such as during CME impacts  
EFFECTIVE PROTONS  

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

GOES (= Geostationary operative environmental satellites) are at geostationary orbit and measure influences / impacts on the geomagnetic field  
new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report and report that represents the highest N/ S amplitude of that day    

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE IMPACTS AND SPACE WEATHER ALERTS ( NOAA):

         
INTEGRAL PARTICLE FLUX:   < NOAA PARTICLE ALERTS >

GEOMAGNETIC STORMS AND RADIATION ALERTS ( NOAA):

 
PARTICLE TYPE:
     

20141106

20141107

SOLAR ALERTS/ INFLUENCES

 

> 10 MeV PROTON FLUX

     
s 2 PROTON STORM;

X RAY > M 5(FLARE ACTIVITY)

 
> 100 MeV PROTON FLUX           TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION  
PARTICLE TYPE:
       

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

 

>0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

       

GEOMAGNETIC STORM/ K INDEX > 4

 

>2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

       
x ray alerts are peaks in solar x ray emissions those occure during flare activities )
 
NEUTRON SYNTHESIS        
TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS are typical indicators for Coronal Mass Ejections ( CME)
 
         
10 cm RADIO BURSTS are typical indicators for STRONGER ERUPTIONS- esp SEPs
 
^remark: orange background means: effect is latent or pending
 
treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu
(1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu
 
         
    < NOAA ALERTS >

CME IMPACTS / SUDDEN IMPULSE ( NOAA):

 
       

 

NOAA/ SUDDEN IMPULSE

EARTH IMPACT ON

SOLAR EVENT :

TYPE OF RELATED SOLAR FLARE OR ACTIVITY

 
               
         
                       
PREVIOUS 1 DAY REPORTS / CURRENT MONTH ( updated during significant activities only)
                 

2014

MONTH

SEPTEMBER

DAY:

06

< date refers to available event data and summaries

click here for previous days reports  

TODAY`S SOLAR ACTIVITY DATA:

 

note: solar and terrestrial data are always yesterrday`s values!

20140905

ACTIVE REGIONS AND CORONAL HOLES AT 23:45 UTC (solen.info)  

SOLAR PARAMETERS

 

SOLAR ACTIVITIES

CLASS

TOTAL:

 

 

SUNSPOT NUMBER

124

 

AVERAGE SOLAR WIND SPEED (km/s)

340-419

FLARES >

C

22

 

SOLAR FLUX (sfu.)

144

 

X- RAY BACKGROUND FLUX:

C 1.1

 

M

   

PLANETARY "A" INDEX

06

 

GEOMAGNETIC . FIELD DENSITY:

80- 140 nT

CME IMPACT

X

 

 
                 
Today`s RSGA/ USAF - report on solar activity > IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M1 event observed at 06/1709Z from Region 2157 (S14E44). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Sep, 08 Sep, 09 Sep).  
         

 

 

     

ACTIVE SUNSPOTS REGIONS INVOLVED IN MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITIES, CMEs OR SEPS ( other active regions are not posted)

EARTH DIRECTED CME (CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS):

CLICK HERE FOR LATEST EARTH DIRECTED CMES AND SEP EVENTS (archives)  

STATUS :

ACTIVE REGIONS:

LOCATION TODAY

       

ESTIMATED ARRIVAL:

SIDERIC DIRECTION

 

(SUNSPOTS AFTER 24 UTC)

LONGITUDE next 24 h.

LATITUDE

CLASS/ CONF.*

MAJOR ACTIVITIES:

CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

EXP. I. MPACT SIZE:

 
  12157 60° E 13° S DHC/ EKC          
 
  12158 68° E 14° N CKO/ DKC          
 

ERUPTIVE FILAMENTS/ PROMINENCES >

            ---
 
solen/info/ active regions>
           
             
 

CORONAL HOLES (CH)

 

 
NUMBER POSITION*: STATUS: FIRST OBSERVED: EARTH FACING MAG &remarks  
CH 634 CENTRAL/ NORTH GROWING   20140905- 06    
             
             
CH HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS>

 

SOURCE:

 

 
ABBREVIATIONS>
NORTH/ SOUTH POLAR CH EXTENSION (NP/ SP CH- EXT)
UNN.= UNNUMBERED CH
RECURR.= RECURRENT
T- EQU.= TRANSEQUATORIAL
 

 

 

               
INTERPLANETARY (SOLAR EM FIELD)- PARTICLE FLUX:
           
 
                     

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:

PARTICLE TYPE:

CURRENT : LAST SIGNIFICANT EVENT:    
PROTON FLUX INCREASED

RISING AFTER201408021/ o8 UTC and 05/ after 00 UTC

ELECTRON FLUX BACK to NORMAL

slight rise after 20140612/ after 10 UTC

   
               
BEGIN/ END:  

 

 

BEGIN/ END:    

 

 

   
   
ACE ( Advanced Composition Explorer) is on and L 1 orbit at the edge between solar and geomagnetic field and measures the intensity and composition of interplanetary solar winds
 
 

 

 

 

           

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TODAY(2)

                 

STATUS:

Today`s GOEShp/ geomagnetometer

GOES/ 3- days sat environment /

GOES integral ELECTRON FLUX- past 3 days* proton flux- past 3 days  

QUIET

 

UNSETTLED

 
ACTIVE  
MINOR STORM  

MAJOR STORM

 
HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAMS  
CME IMPACT/ EFFECTS  
 
 
* see also report below!
 
USAF report on geophysical activity for previous day:>>        
* graph only during significant events
 
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 430 km/s at 06/2049Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 06/1531Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 06/0512Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9 pfu at 06/0740Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 286 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (07 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (08 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (09 Sep). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (07 Sep), are likely to cross threshold on day two (08 Sep) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (09 Sep).
     
                       
                     
GEOMAGNETIC Bz COMPONENT (2) SOUTHWARDS -09 nT (USAF) NEUTRAL NORTHWARD + 11 nT (USAF) The Bz component is the value, the geomagnetic field density fluctuates /shifts in North/ South direction such as during CME impacts  
EFFECTIVE PROTONS  

EFFECTIVE ELECTRONS

           
new: in cases of CME impacts, this value is taken from the USAF report and report that represents the highest N/ S amplitude of that day    
 

 

 

 

 

 

                 

 

TODAY`S SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE IMPACTS AND SPACE WEATHER ALERTS ( NOAA):

         
INTEGRAL PARTICLE FLUX:   < NOAA ALERTS >

GEOMAGNETIC STORMS AND RADIATION ALERTS ( NOAA):

 
PARTICLE TYPE:

20140905

20140906

20140907

20140906

20140907

SOLAR ALERTS/ INFLUENCES

 

> 10 MeV PROTON FLUX

> 0.1 pfu. < 1,2 pfu.

> 0.1 pfu. < 1,2 pfu.

+/- 0.1 pfu.

NONE

NONE

X RAY > M 5(FLARE ACTIVITY)

 
> 100 MeV PROTON FLUX back to normal back to normal back to normal   NONE TYPE II/ IV TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSION  
PARTICLE TYPE:

20140905

20140906

20140907

NONE

NONE

10 cm RADIO BURSTS

 

>0.8 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>1.000 < 25.000 pfu (+) >4.500< 30.000 pfu (+) dropping after new sEP  

G1 (expected)

NONE

GEOMAGNETIC STORM

 

>2.0 MeV ELECTRON FLUX (1)

>100< 450 (-) >220 > 750 () rising  
x ray alerts are peaks in solar x ray emissions those occure during flare activities )
 
NEUTRON SYNTHESIS (3) NO CURRENT DATA (3) NO CURRENT DATA UNKNOWN  
TYPE II AND IV RADIO EMISSIONS are typical indicators for Coronal Mass Ejections ( CME)
 
         
10 cm RADIO BURSTS are typical indicators for STRONGER ERUPTIONS- esp SEPs
 
^remark: orange background means: effect is latent or pending
 
treshold for S1 proton storm: > 10 MeV P. > 10 pfu
(1) treshold for S1 electron storm = >2.0 MeV E. > 1000 pfu
 
         
    < NOAA ALERTS >

CME IMPACTS / SUFDDEN IMPULSE ( NOAA):

 
       

 

NOAA/ SUDDEN IMPULSE

EARTH IMPACT ON

SOLAR EVENT :

TYPE OF RELATED SOLAR FLARE OR ACTIVITY

 
       

20140906/ 25: 24 UTC

20140904

LARGE FILAMENT ERUPTION ON NORTHERN SOLAR HEMISPHERE

 
         
                       
                       
alt
 
 

 

 

 

 

 

                 

 

 

       
         
         

 

 

       
click here for: LATEST SIGNIFICANT SOLAR EVENTS ( earth directed CMEs, SEPs, satellite images and data)
       
WEEKLY SATELLITE REVIEW OF SOLAR ACTIVITIES (AR, flares, CMEs, SEPs)
   
     
LAST MAJOR SOLAR EVENT/ EVOLUTION

SEPTEMBER 2014

                 
   
LOGS:                    
DATE and TIME: AR/images REPORT>

   
IMAGES:
PLOTS and OTHER:
 
20140901/ 17:45 UTC                    

CME (DATE/ TIME >>)

20140910/ 17:45 UTC ERUPTION TYPE: X 1 flare at 17:45 uTC FULLY HALO CME estimated CME arrrival: 20140912      
 
(01) SDO/ AIA (02) SOHO/ LASCO C3 (02) SOHO/ LASCO C3 (03) STEREO( Ahead (05) SDO/ AIA NASA/ Dl RAP- PROTON AND X_RAY IMPACTS (07) SDO/ AIA GOES PROTON flux (1) GOES X-RAY flux (1) SOLAR CME/ SEP EVENT LOG :  
       

SEP (DATE AND TIME of SOLAR EVENT

 

20140910/ 19:03 (NOAA*)

 
TRACKING NR.:  
   
ACTIVE REGION:  
AR 12158.  
SUN COORDINATES:
  20140910/ 19:54 UTC 20140911/ 00:30 UTC         PROTON IMPACT: after 21 UTC   02° E- 16° N  
               
* SEP eruption time= time of 10 cm RADIO BURST
 
DATE and TIME: AR/images REPORT>

   
IMAGES:
PLOTS and OTHER:
 
20140901/ 18:59 UTC                    

CME (DATE/ TIME >>)

  ERUPTION TYPE:            
 
(01) SDO/ AIA (02) SOHO/ LASCO C3 (03) STEREO( Ahead (04) SDO/ AIA (05) SDO/ AIA NASA/ Dl RAP- PROTON AND X_RAY IMPACTS (07) SDO/ AIA GOES PROTON flux (1) GOES X-RAY flux (1) SOLAR SEP EVENT LOG :  
   

SEP (DATE AND TIME of SOLAR EVENT

 
20140901/prior to 11: 54?  
TRACKING NR.:  
   
ACTIVE REGION:  
NORTH POLAR SOLAR REGION  
SUN COORDINATES:
20140901/ 18:59 UTC (SEP) 20140901/ 12:42 20140901/ 10:51 UTC 20140902/ 08:36 UTC 20140901/ 11:54 UTC Proton impact on NASA D-RAP (20140902/ 23UTC)          
                   
     
 

 

 

 

       

LATEST AND CURRENTLY ACTIVE SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS (SEP)

             
LATEST SOLAR SEPS ARTICLE EVENTS: ACCELERATED PROTONS/ ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS : ( event logs)  
SEP EVENT/ event logs this log represents the latest event evolution of terrestrial SEP impacts- earlier events are archived here. NASA/ D-RAP-REAL TIME global (heat) impact of solar protons and x-rays  
 
 

ACTIVE SOLAR SEP/ LOG

latest significant SEP >> /20141101/ time: unknown MEDIUM > 1 > 10 pfu. ( 4 days) CURRENTLY EFFECTIVE PARTICLES >> PHASE I (PROTONS) PHASE II (> 10 MeV ELECTRONS)
PHASE III (DISCHARGE)
 
           
previous, accumulated SEPs >> 201400910/ after 18 UTC 20140825/ 18 UTC 20140405/ 12 UTC 20140227 ( X 1.2)  

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : REMARKS/ CURRENT STATE    
SEP event > 10 MeV PROTON EMISSION /20141101/ time: unknown 201409011/ after 15UTC 20141106/ 00 UTC > 1 < 10 pfu. unknown      
                     
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS ACTIVITY/ BEGIN: END: LATEST VALUES: PEAK VALUES: reaching threshold on >    
INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold = E > 1.000 pfu)
20141021/ 07 UTC ongoing   20141023/ 18.000 pfu exceeding 1.000 pfu on 20141021/ 14 UTC    

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : CURRENT STATE::    
SEP event > 10 MeV PROTON EMISSION /20140910/ after 11UTC 201409010/ 18:15 UTC 20140914/ 09 UTC > 1 < 100 pfu.        
                     
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS ACTIVITY/ BEGIN: END: LATEST VALUES: PEAK VALUES: reaching threshold on >    
INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold = E > 1.000 pfu)
20140922/ 10:30 ongoing     exceeding 1.000 pfu on 20141001    
                     

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : CURRENT STATE::    
SEP event > 10 MeV PROTON EMISSION AR 12151/20140901/ after 11UTC 20140901/ after 21 UTC ongoing > 1 < 10 pfu. very low ( 1.000- 3000 km/ s first event in records with unusually extreme slow protons    
                     
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS ACTIVITY/ BEGIN: END: LATEST VALUES: PEAK VALUES: reaching threshold on >    
INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold = E > 1.000 pfu)
20140901 ongoing > 10 MeV ELectrons Y 1.000 pfu fluctuating first time that proton and electrons both exceed treshold levels- interrupted by new SEP on 20140910    
                     

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : CURRENT STATE::    
SEP event > 10 MeV PROTON EMISSION not evaluated yet 20140825/ after 18 UTC 20140827( 00 UTC low (+/- 1 pfu. ( 10 x)   electron breakdown    
                     
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS ACTIVITY/ BEGIN: END: LATEST VALUES: PEAK VALUES: reaching threshold on >    
INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold = E > 1.000 pfu)
interrupted by new SEP latent ---- > 1.000 pfu. 20140831    
                     
 

 

 

   
PREVIOUS SOLAR SEPS AND SEP SERIALS, those are still active ( effective and interfer/ accumulate ):
ACCUMULATING ELECTRONS ACTIVITY/ BEGIN: END: LATEST VALUES: PEAK VALUES: reaching threshold on >
 
INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold = E > 1.000 pfu)
20140511/ 11 UTC repeatedly interupted (by new proton events NEW INCREASE ON 20160802      
INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold = E > 1.000 pfu)
20140511/ 11 UTC repeatedly interupted (by new proton events NEW INCREASE ON 20160717      
INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold = E > 1.000 pfu)
20140511/ 11 UTC repeatedly interupted (by new proton events NEW INCREASE ON 20160618      
INTEGRAL> 2.0 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold = E > 1.000 pfu)
20140423/ 17 UTC 20140429/00UTC knocked down by protons
20140429/ 00 UTC. E flux was knocked bylate proton activity (SEP/ 20140418)
20140425/ 13 UTC > 1.000 pfu

(20140425/ 13 UTC

 
INTEGRAL>0.8 MeV ELECTRONS : (treshold = E > 10.000 pfu)
(20140421/ 15 UTC rising
20140426/ 15 UTC > 100.000 pfu
---

(20140421/ 15 UTC

 

ACCELERATED PROTONS >

SOLAR EVENT:

IMPACT/ BEGIN

END

PEAK VALUES: APPR. SPEED : CURRENT STATE::  
SEP event > 10 MeV PROTON EMISSION 20140418/ 13:19 UTC: M 7.8 LDE flare in AR 12036 20140507/ 19 UTC 20140711 low ( > 01. < 0.8 pfu)   electron breakdown  
SEP event > 10 MeV PROTON EMISSION 20140418/ 13:19 UTC: M 7.8 LDE flare in AR 12036 20140418/ after 13 UTC 201404210/ 09 UTC > about 60 pfu. near the speed of light 20140430: protons appproached again from polar Earth orbit-  
             

meaning of background colors>

yellow= this particles are currently active/ dominant red= strong event        
} orange background = ACTIVE electrons/ but their effectivity is PENDING OR INTERFERED BY PROTONS/ or> PROTONS are still too fast to envolve significant effects
       
         
         
 

 

 

 
CURRENT SEP/ PROTON EFFECTS May 23- 2014: Protons- particulary from the high speed SEP on APR 18. partic. also from minor recent solar eruptions (AR 12071) are still active in the geomagnetic field with an increase of magmatic activities at the same time. At 22 UTC a sudden increase of electron density likely marked the end of the effectivity these protons had in the geomagneticmfield over the last days and weeks  
ELECTRON EFFECTS>

20140610: integral electrons flux signficantly began to rise and might reach tresholds soon in the coming days. The increase followed a strong depression of the electron flux by former SEP and solar protons effects and indicate that these protons effects those lasted for more than 1 month are over now. hot spot activities have again dcreased yet in the last weeks The electron accumulation now will bring again high temperatures and droughts to the Northern hemisphere, as welll as sudden tornadoes, thunderstorms . I am not sure, how the high tension of the integral electron fluxmight induce cururents into ships on high seas power grids and other electric devices but several servers ship incidents those occured during electron accumulations in the greomag field suggest that ea. are capable for.

The current state of particles within the geomag. field is after quite a dozen part. accumulating SEPs since autum 2013 is rather confusing and data plots dont`t allow exact results.

might persist for several weeks now after those these electrons will finally discharge. This last SEP phase expected in about 3 weeks sometime end of June 2014 ( if no further solar SEPs occures) with cooling down of and contraction effects on the affected tectonic plates those likely finally will trigger strong and CATASTROPHIC earthquakes with magnitudes above M 9!!

20140607: The integral electron flux dropped again into negative values and continued so since JUne 03. The source of the disturbance are likely protons still active either from previous events or from recent solar protons emissions into interplanetary space

20140523/ 22 UTC There was a sudden increase of the integral electron flux after 22 UTC. There was no similar related event found on ACE data , thus the increase seems not to be related to a solar event, but rather marks the end of the effectivity , solar protons had on the geomagnetic field during the last days and weeks

20140523: During the second half of May 2014 , electrons were first rising as expected following the strong high speed SEP on April 18 ( with protons almost at the speed of light) . After May 17, the electron energy was again neutralized by those still active and after May 23 also by newly incoming protons ( activities in AR 12071) and fell into minus values, what does not mean, that these electrons would lose their cinetic energy by that . They rather get compressed and electrically neutralised by protons circulating with the field lines , what at least temporarely hampers their ability to cause thunderstorms and strong tornadoes or induced currents.

Temperature anomalies around the Northern pole continue since end of 2013 and brought again climatical extremes to the medium latitudes.

 
orange background >means: The electron effects of the last SEO were overlapsed by new SEP eventand currently deactivated or: HIGH SPEED SEP. Protons are still to fastto envolve significant effects  
SEP EVENT HISTORY :
   
20140418/
13:19 UTC
complex nested solar region AR 12036 (35- 37 produced and M 7,.8 LDE flare peaking with a CME at 13:19 UTC. The event was associated with a medium strong SEP. First Protons arrived soon after 13 uTC- thus were accelerated near to the speed of light,due to the fact , that the eruption took place near the central solar meridian and the proton speed is highest radially to the eruption center. means, that some proton effects such as hot spot activities will delay resp takle place slowly
 
20140413- 16
 
The integral Electron flux began to increase after strongly been compressed by active protons. (20140415) Integral electron flux is expected to exceed treshold of 1.000 pfu on 20140416
 
20140405
after 12 UTC
Proton flux slightly increased to max 1.0 pfu after solar event
 
20140325
08 UTC
Integral,proton flux rose after CME event on 20140324 to values up to 1 pfu.
 
20140317
 
Integral proton flux has decreased to normal values after March 07. But the high amount of protons those impacted during this long lasting proton storm ist still effective with heat in the earth body and mantle .Hot spot activities are still present on the Canary islands. The proton influence also still knocks down the integral electron flux to zero and even into negative values. There is a slight recovery of the electron since March 17 . Values will further increase and exceed 100 pfu at any time in about 1 or two weeks ( SEP phase II) , if no new SEP occures.
 
     
20140228
 
Integral Proton flux increased further on February 28 and reached 100 pfu early in the morning. I have not reviewed the solar events yet. but protons storms/ eruptions are what I call " the invisible eruption"
 
                       
                       
 

 

 

   
                       
         

 

 

 

 

click here to open and close collapsible panel with useful external links and infos, internal maps and charts-
 
   
click here to open collapsible panel with project related infos- maps- charts- links- and other important informations
 

 

 

all forecasts are without guarantee! Alle Vorhersagen sind ohne Gewähr!

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appendix:

TEMPLATES ( for internal use)

 
collapsible panel with templates
some drafts with informations about this project ( stand: July 2011) -uncorrected