alien-homepage.de- Earth quake statistics- -SUN SPOT ACTIVITY- 11 year solar cycle- last update: DECEMBER - 03- 2011- -copyright: reserved

 

open source earthquake forecast project created and provided by: alien-homepage.de

-For my visitors: for most recent CME updates, check also out page 1 ( click here)or: my warning ticker ( CME TRACKING)

 

-SUN SPOT ACTIVITY-CME TRACKING AND EVALUATIONS

-page 2- evaluation archives --

 

ABOUT THIS PAGE: On this page I began to evaluate significant CME ( solar coronal mass ejections) events and coincident terrestrial threads, resp. extraordinary environmental events, such as Earthquake volcano eruptions. As I could prove is, that beside those " scientifically yet proven" technical incidents related to CMEs ( electromagnetic induction of power grids, radio blackouts and/ or disturbances in satellite transmissions) more natural events are related to ( resp. are "regularly coincident") to CME impacts, than this plasma winds may cause to those tiny sateillites in the nearby Earth orbit.- I also found out by the way was, that certain types of sudden storms hurricanes, sudden unprecedented floodings always occured , resp soon after CME impacts .

And there are also some other extraordinary but yet unexplaned phenomenons which most likely are linked to CME impacts. Such phemomenons are sudden glacial meltdowns, (effects maybe falsely related to " climate change") but also very dangerous things such as methanhydrate releases from below continental/ tectonical shelves.

Last not least I also included strange animal behavior, expecially whale or dolphin beachings in my reports, , since I could in all cases examined see, that these whale beachings occured during MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES/ STORMS either caused by CMEs or extraordinary Sun win winds streams from related Solar events. .

But this page was madeonly and forst to study the coincidences of CMEs to Earthquakes and volcanic activities. Meanwhile I changes this project into a simple documentary , that should collect all those reports possibly ( as I believe: surely) linked to CMEs as a source of review for my users and a mean to understand what is going on during this extraordinary year 1012 (in this report referred as : year of solar maximum within the 11 years sun spot cycle). Its maybe also interesting for the many people, who guess there could happen much more and also much "extraordinary" in this year 2012

.The eveluation project on this page is therefore rather finished . The report will be continued as an documentary in my all including "Solar and terrestrial blog., where you find the latest solar and terrestrial events.

 
 
 

Some remarks to the CME events s:

>minor CME events those had almost no measured effects ( on GOES geomagnetometer) are sorted out .

>In addition a monthly graph will give a better overview how these events are related , as far as significant solar activities occured.

Please be patient , as this is much work to do. and this page might not be always up to date! You also find all current CME reports in my daily updated Solar and terrestrial blog.

To find previous reports of 2010 , 2011 and 2012, click on: alien-homepage/ archive center.

so read some special reports, click on: ESSAYS SPECIAL REPORTS

 

This page is under revision and will by and by be improved due to my own progress in understanding.

! Please be patient as it needs both: . Progress in understanding the issue , but also; good ideas how to present these data in a

nice, interesting and comprehendable form/ layout

           
alien-homepage.de / internal links:    
navi> ws You want to leave any comment or start a discussion? You can do that on my Google webblog >>
related pages> archived> UTC time tool>
 

 

click on the following ( blue backcolored )tab to open and close the collapsible panel with more informations!

related internal pages on alien homepage:

SUN ACTIVITY / 11 YEARs SOLAR CYCLE and: VOLCANO MAPS

page

part

SET THE CONTROLS FOR THE HEART OF THE SUN

START>

SUN CONTROL CENTER-

Start here to find all related informations about the international sun observatory program: solar institutes and satellites, their methods. data and graphs, all real time monitors, explanations etc. All on a practical map! Just click on the items or images there to open the register cards with all kinds of informations and external links!

2.0

 

you are here at: PAGE 2: EVALUATIONS

    OWN statistic based evaluations of Sun Spot activities and their impacts on EARTH: seismic activities, Weather and technical resources
  . currently in phase two: Phase two means to evaluate the time lapse between an CME impact ( indicated by NOAA and NASA Earth Magnetometers) and subsequent Earthquake events to get more precise earthquake forecasts
    Other pages:

1.0

PAGE 1: STATISTIC RESEARCH: COINCIDENCES OF SOLAR ACTIVITIES WITH EARTHQUAKES VOLCANISM AND OTHER CLIMATICAL EFFECTS:

  1.1. SUN CONTROL: DATA CHARTS OF SEVERAL NASA SPACE OBSERVATORIES
  1.2.

>EXPERIMENTAL "2 DAYS EARTHQUAKE AND VOLCANISM FORECAST" PROJECT BASED ON SOLAR ACTIVITY

 

3.0

> SPECIAL REPORTS:

   

HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKES AND OTHER SIGNIFICANT EVENTS AFTER IMPACT OF HOLO CMEs on EARTH:

 

  TWO NUCLEAR INCIDENTS in FORSMARK, SWEDEN ON JULY- 25- 2006- and FUKUSHIMA (ongoing since MARCH- 11- 2011)

 

  THE HUGE EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI ON DECEMBER 26- 2004- also happened IMMIDIATELY after an HOLO CME stroke the EARTH!

 

 

Additional ( on each page):

     

 

 

>EXTERNAL LINKS (collection of links to NASA and others to related informations)

links to my ARCHIVES and previous EVALUATIONS

other related pages:

INTERNAL MAPS

My internal maps serve several purposes related to issues on my website: One is the mapping of ancient sites or other locations for my mythology projects, the other is my "volcano watch" as an extension of my weather forecast project: As an easy and practical data base you find on these maps really all know active volcanoes worldwide, mapped accurately on Google satellite maps and stuffed with all related basic geologic informations and links to the USGS database . My special features are: links to many volcano webcams ( as far as available) >Each volcano and ancient site mark in the register cards is equiped with "Google Earth program commands ": With just one click, your Google Earth program will find the exact location of the requested site and you can see the real environmental close up image of that site.

Also on these regional maps: A weekly updated activity report of the volcanoes in that region (updated once per week- usually Thursdays) with alert levels , activity history and links to local survey institutes . Histories of significant Earthquakes or related events as well as media reports or documentary videos

Kamchatka peninsula and Aleutian islands

Japan, Mariana Islands- Kyril islands

Indonesia and Philippines

Australia and Southern Pacific

Northern America

Central America and Mexico

South America- Northern part

South America- Southern part

Africa and Arabic peninsula

Europe and Western Asia

alien- homepage.de/maps:
world volcano map version 1.0   world volcano map version 2.0   Also New: "World Disaster Map"

 

 

 

INTRODUCTION:

TO GIVE A GOOD EXAMINED EXAMPLE HOW A CORONAL MASS EJECTION ( CME) FROM THE SUN EFFECTS ON EARTH,

read first the following material provided by tha NASA about the " Carrington case"- most likely the largest Sun flare and triggered CME in the last 500 years:

NASA SCIENCE NEWS: "A Super Solar Flare" audio file ( mp3) download audio file

 

, September 1, 1859, 33-year-old Richard Carrington—widely acknowledged to be one of England's foremost solar astronomers—was in his well-appointed private observatory. Just as usual on every sunny day, his telescope was projecting an 11-inch-wide image of the sun on a screen, and Carrington skillfully drew the sunspots he saw.

Right: Sunspots sketched by Richard Carrington on Sept. 1, 1859. Copyright: Royal Astronomical Society: more.

On that morning, he was capturing the likeness of an enormous group of sunspots. Suddenly, before his eyes, two brilliant beads of blinding white light appeared over the sunspots, intensified rapidly, and became kidney-shaped. Realizing that he was witnessing something unprecedented and "being somewhat flurried by the surprise," Carrington later wrote, "I hastily ran to call someone to witness the exhibition with me. On returning within 60 seconds, I was mortified to find that it was already much changed and enfeebled." He and his witness watched the white spots contract to mere pinpoints and disappear.

It was 11:23 AM. Only five minutes had passed.

Just before dawn the next day, skies all over planet Earth erupted in red, green, and purple auroras so brilliant that newspapers could be read as easily as in daylight. Indeed, stunning auroras pulsated even at near tropical latitudes over Cuba, the Bahamas, Jamaica, El Salvador, and Hawaii.

Even more disconcerting, telegraph systems worldwide went haywire. Spark discharges shocked telegraph operators and set the telegraph paper on fire. Even when telegraphers disconnected the batteries powering the lines, aurora-induced electric currents in the wires still allowed messages to be transmitted.

"What Carrington saw was a white-light solar flare—a magnetic explosion on the sun," explains David Hathaway, solar physics team lead at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama

Title: Description of a Singular Appearance seen in the Sun on September 1, 1859

link to read the original article by Richard Carrington from 1859>>

google books- page 1 Carrington event

   

-----

 

PAGE 2 CONTENT:

EVALUATIONS PHASE 2:

click on the blue backcolored tabs to open and close the collapsible panels (register card)

 

click here to read more about the project on this page:

About phase 2 evaluation:

About phase 2 evaluation: ( find out about the project in general on page one)

In this new phase 2 ( begun on June- 4- 2011) I will try to track the CME impact on Earth in order to get more precise data for earthquake prediction.

calculation of the time distance when relevant Sun features such as CME occure on the Sun and the time when they impact on Earth is generally difficult ( due to changing solar wind speeds and other unpredictable parameters) and a constant issue on the agenda of the space weather predictions.

In my project I try to track the "path od CMEs2" on Earth and their significant effects not on the space weather but on the weather on Earth: Earthquakes, volcano eruptions, storms . Other effects as those on the global weather such as tornados thunderstorms or floodings will be added form time to time, if available an relevant, resp. I have time to do so- as well as reports on radio transmissions, transformer fires, damages on power grids a.s.o)

Elder reports you find in my " sun spot archives"

notes: >The terms of my personal copyright you find here: copyright at alien-homepage.de > The appearance and content of my graphs on this pages might change due to requirements of the project itself or for better web presentation- Please also note: IT will not be possible for me to collect all data as planned with the fields below at every event ! Sometimes data may follow later, if not instantly available. Available data sources or repiorts are put in hyperlinks as evidence. During evaluation, most data are preliminary!
find more explanations on page 1 graph right side: >>>
explanations: GOES magnetometer. The GOES weather satellites orbit in around 40.000 km distance to the Earth. The magnetometer data indicate the flux in the geomagnetic field. Fluctuations indicate CME impacts. which are the main source for geomagnetic disturbances.>>>
PAI= planetary A index
 
 

essay- draft- JULY- 12- 2011

THE SIRIUS MYSTERY

MOST EARTH DIRECTED HOLO CMEs DURING the " DOG DAYS"?

  click on image to enlarge it!
 

In old Europa at least some of the eldest knowledge has survived the many religious and cultural revolutions and political changes of the last milleniums as it was first of all "practical aprovable at all times " and so never on doubt. One - and probably the most important astronomical base to be found in Egyptian and mesoamerican calendars was the so called " Sirius calendar" or Sirius year. Sirius is a very massive and the most massive star system in our cosmical neighborhood . Just around 6 light years away from our Sun its could be barely explored with improved instruments by astronomers during the last century. Much about Sirius is still contraversial. What seems to be real is:

SIRIUS System has a large PHYSICAL influence on our Sun and planetary System and might even be ( this is my own hypothesis won out of astronomical data) the CENTRAL STAR ( rotation point) of a larger star group we belong to. "We" - resp. our Sun system ( due to my hypothesis ) most likely circles/ orbits around Sirius with a period of 29.960 years, This period not only matches with the socalled Earth precession (which is indicated by the position of the North Star " Polaris) As I am rather sure about (allthough theren is no proof yet available resp technical possible) the orbit of our Sun system around Sirius causes the Earth precession ". Newer findings even confirm that theory saying that not only the Earth has that precession but also the SUN and the other planetsaas well . Due to latest scientific publications, all precessions on all planets including the Sun EVEN go synchronously with another! Its just like something which moves into a swirl declines towards the rotation center.

So my question to the sun activity - especially the forming of Flares and CMEs was:IS THE SUN ACTIVITY DURING THE SOLAR CYCLE influenced by Sirius, resp how influences Sirius the fluctuations of the sun activity? ? The data however I have just won since this summer soltice 2011 ( when the Sun stands between Sirius and the galactical core and Sirius " dissappears" from the night sky for around 2-3 month days behind the sun) again seem to confirm my theory.

Before I will explain that in detail,here first some interesting informations about Sirius itself: ( just click on the tab " About Sirius" to open the register card:

ABOUT SIRIUS
1.0 SIRIUS>

the visible central star of the Sirius system is a socalled "blue giant" and a double or triple sun system out of 2 rather 3 Suns circling around each other. Sirius belongs to the constellation " canis major " (latin: "the large dog") which stands some below the ecliptic plane below the " soltice" constellation of GEMINI: Due to its size and activity Sirius is the brightest Star visible form the Earth. With the summer soltice, Sirius dissapears behind our Sun, while the galactical center/ core appears on the zenith of the night sky. During winter soltice this is just opposite: The galactiocal core in ( currently) 5 ° SAGITTARIUS dissapears behind the sun, while Sirius stands in the zenith . Most likely Sirius is also the star named as the christmas star of Bethlehem.

The axis between SIRIUS and the galactical core is identical with the plane on which all our planets move and it also causes the soltices of all planets beeing on that line.The fact that Sirius itself is some below the galactical ecliptic is even the probable reason for the declination of the Earth course towards the Sun`s equator ( simply said: why the suns stands lowest during winter soltice and highest during summer soltice) which is responsible for winter and summer changes on earth. Further evidence for that fact is, that all planets have their soltices and fartherst points to the sun equator on that axis from Gemini to Sagittarius

image: SIRIUS "B" could first be potographed around the year 2000

1.1 SIRIUS "A" The central Sun with the astronomical name "Sirius A"is a massive star constisting out of a multiple of the mass of our yellow Sun (estimated 2.9 Sun masses) .Its nuclear fusion runs much faster and on a higher frequency what results on the emission of mainly ultraviolet light which an average much higher frequency than the sun light has we receive from our central star.

1.2. SIRIUS "B"

 

 

 

 

 

 

The second star circling around Sirius A and is called "Sirius B" commonly also know as " Digitaris". Sirius B has about the mass of our Sun, but is already a mostly burned out Sun which exploded once as a Nova after it had blown up to a red giant in the scenario typical as the end of smaller stars like our Sun. There is now only one theory about when that approximately happened and its not my problem to determine which one might be the most realistic one. The one I have read long time ago, said that Sirius B just exploded about 35.00 years ago. what means around that time, when- due to some archeologists ( like Greece ones) the Earth first had its evolutionary jump from stoneage into a civilisation building pyramids and other riddles we still can`t really explain today.

However- due to this elder Siris B theory, the explosion of Sirius B as Nova just 35.000 years ago would serioulsy have harmed the life on Earth, if not Sirius A would have swallowed most of the Helium hull during its red giant state. This contributed much to Sirius A`s special consistence out of rather heavy elements .Sirius A and B however have exchanged their masses before. But since Sirius B turned into a so called white dwarf, its also moved away from Sirius A to about 1/2 light year`s distance . A white dwarf is the reminent of a smaller star ( up to 1.9 sun masses) The core or interior of a white dwarf consists out of extreme compressed dense matter, while its surface remains hotter than a normal sun for another Millions of years or more, until the star reaches its next final state as invisible " brown dwarf". Just the fusion and overall production of light by white dwarf is ( compared to its previous time as shining star) so small , that white dwarfs just have a very faint appearance on any nightsky or telescope. The first image above. showing SIris B beside its giant central star " A" was made around 2001 by Hubble telecsope, while Sirius B was on its fartherst distance from the main star , without being overblinded by it light.

1.3. SIRIUS "C"

End of 2010 the American astronomy society published an essay of a NASA astronomer , which was same surprising as shocking but at all related to the fast progress in technical devices to explore the universe. I found the report on CNN.com: Scientists, telescope hunt massive hidden object in space.

The author described a " large brown object. possibly a brown dwarf , from which he even thought it is " approaching our sun system"- however causing xtreme turbulences . As Sirius is the central or dominant star system of the nightsky during Christmas, it must be considered this object was detected somewhere in the direction of Sirius . Whether this mayby Sirius C or not . not much is known about this third Sirius Companion- neither its mass nor its actual orbit nor its state. Due to the essential laws of planetary movements it should, resp. whould have an orbital period of 100 years around Sirius A and would therefore more or less align all 100 years with our Sun and the Earth.

constellation canis major

great dog>

 
other sources:

The Sirius Mystery" by Robert G Temple:

The Egyptians and Mesomerican cultures very early measured the right length of a cosmical Earth year ( orbital period) by the so called " "heliacic rise" of Sirius around July 20th, when Sirius first appears early in the morning again on the nightsky shortly before sunrise beside the Sun. During the summer soltice Sirius dissapears behind the Sun, with a multiple of effetcs. The Egyptians waited each year for the so called "Nile flodding", which filled their reservoirs along the Nile essentiallly to sustain their agriculture over the year.

The Egyptians and later the Dogons knew much more about the Sirius System than we did at the beginning of the 20 th century still today resumes the author of " The Sirius Mystery- Robert G Temple" in his bestseller. R G Temple had studied three ancient languages- old Greece, Egyptian and Sanskrit . Later he compared numerous old texts from these most ancient cultures and found the results he describes essentially as a quintessence of a Sirius cult. The claims these cultures not only knew about the existence of Sirius B and its alignments with SIrius A and our Sun all 50 years ( what caused always major climatic effects) . Robert Temple is sure these cultures even knew about the existence of the third Sirius "companion" /Sun ( Sirius C) which is today not more in doubt allthough little evidence could be found on that invisible brown dwarf yet.

remarks:

Governments and their universities all around the world are ruled with religious concepts. The ones in the western hemisphere once evolved out of the inquisition, the rulership of the Church, which allowed by and by scientific research, but did not really lost influence in Europe after the French revolution.

In earlier times universities were rather governmental institutions, supported by kings or the public finance system. Today with the propagation of private capitalism , scientific research and the most universities ( beginning in USA followed by germany...) are- like never before- dependant on private investors. Industries have gained control on our universities where they can directly exploit scientific research and the skills of young new scientists. Who pays, commands .The philosophy of these investors ( most wellknown is David Rckefeller which founded the most private universities in the US first) maybe explains why these elder theories or researches like the one of Sirius are now overthrown , replaced by others , which rather fit the imaginations and political aims of these new world rulers while elder ones are declared as absurd .

The Egyptians and Mesomerican cultures very early measured the right length of a cosmical Earth year ( orbital period) by the so called " "heliacic rise" of Sirius around July 20th, when Sirius first appears early in the morning again on the nightsky shortly before sunrise beside the Sun. During the summer soltice Sirius dissapears behind the Sun, with a multiple of effetcs. The Egyptians waited each year for the so called "Nile flodding", which filled their reservoirs along the Nile essentiallly to sustain their agriculture over the year.

These effects mostly last longer, than to that date when the annual heliacic Sirius rise occures. The hottest days of each year , when Sirius again appears beside the Sun are refered as being the " dog days" ( from " dog star- another name for Sirius a part of the canis major constellation" . During that time the emmitted energy from Sirius adds some energy and sums up with the one of our Sun effectng with rising heat and drought.

Shipherds and seamen today know about extreme high tides and waves ( kadenzmen) during this time around summer soltice . All these tidal effects ( as also the Nile flooding each year) are undoubthely caused by the additional gravity of Sirius ( allthough its is due to the distance not so extremely high) while it sums up with the gravity our Sun/ while standing behind the sun where it forms forms with the sun a stronger gravity line that leads further direct into the galactic core.( soltice axis or world axis) Both bodies pulling form both sides create the entire effects. Out of an astronomical sight, this "line of intense gravity" from Sirius to the galactic centre exists permanently and throughout the year and the times in June and December are just the orbital points the Earth twice a years annually crosses that line.

I started this site in March 2010 after somebody on youtube has published Earthquake warning videos, based on so called Coronal holes. So I looked for a website with actual sun data to examine statistically whether there are those coincidences between the sun activity and Earthquakes or volcanism. The website solen.info is still the most comprehensive central source combining informations of all sun observatories dealing with that issue solar cyce. After the first evaluations confirmed that the earthquake activity on Earth at the moment goes to 90 % synchronous rather with sun (spot)activites, flares and CMEs , but sometimes also with larger Coronal holes, I decided this year to take a further step to examine the CMEs on their way to Earth as far as possible. The results are here on this page as phase 2 evaluations or " CME. tracking"

These further evaluations made necessary to get also more detailled direct satellite informations on the websites of the institutes like NASA NOAA and others. Doing this every day , I realised that from the many active and recurrant regions on the Sun surface forming out and decaying through the year, there was a certain opposite longitude on the Sun with the highest activity, resp. where the most flares , prominences a.s.o occured. Soon I thought about,whether this region with the most intensive flares would be that longitude which aligns with the axis form Sirius to the galactical center, on which all planets and moons have their soltices (I referred as the " soltice line" in this essay).

Many more sun flares or prominences occure during the peak of the 11 years solar cycle than during its minimum phase. This year since I examine the origin and path of CMEs more closely just some really Earth directed " holo CMEs" had occured until June. .As I have described in an essay titled " CMEs and their affinity to water" on interestiong fact is , that almost all examined Earthquakes related to CME impacts were seaquakes. I have jet not onedirectly related to a CME which occured on land. The strongest one of course occured 2011 on March 8 and 9 and led to the catastrophic Seaquake near Japan with the following tsunami causing one of the greatest catastrophies in recent menkind history

As every year, since June the Earth is crossing that mathematic " line" ( its rather an" effective field") between Sirius, the Earth Sun and the galactical center refered as being the soltice axis, located at 5 ° beyond Sagittarius as the dominant constellationof the midsummer night sky .

Since then until today- July- 13- at all 10 CMEs (luckily most of them weak CMEs due to the currently low Sun activity)occured during one month.

I take this as the first evidence that the Suns longitude which lies/ aligns with this "soltice axis" ( in other words: a gravity line between Sirius and the galactical core) is INDEED that most active Sun region, I have observed during the first half of this year on SDO images, where the most flares and protuberances occure.

I think this would be a very important fact to know, as this would prove that the flares on the sun a triggered by the gravity o pull of the two major bodies on thwe sun matter and a major step to find out more about the 11 sun cycle.

And it would be just logically the assume this has to do with the gravity of both distant objects, Sirius and more even: the galactic core which both pull from both opposite direction here ( as well as on the Earth) on the Sun`s surface and cause the major eruptions there.

I will continue the evaluation of this evidence and will be able to present more statistic data after Christmas/ winter soltice 2011and after summer soltice in 2012.

Munich- July- 12 2011

Sincerely!

alien homepage/ the author.

copyright: reserved

contact/ impressum

 

 

  links: GOES- magnetometer- goeshp- archives    
    NOAA- GOES - combined data plots    
    SoHO- LASCO image archive    
         
click on the blue backcolored tab in the next row to see the detailled list of examined CME events in 2011 (since June- 2011- time of project start). For the more detailled single event report click on the registercard further down on this page.
LIST OF EARTH- DIRECTED CME EVENTS IN 2011 ( CME tracking)
 

table 2 ( started on June- 10- 2011)

LIST OF EARTH- DIRECTED CME EVENTS IN 2011 ( CME tracking)

(thos table is a summary of the graphs below)

 

This data evaluation should serve to calculate gradual alert levels for Earthquake predictions.

 
 

P*

= partial impact

H*=

"Halo" = fully, completely

CME= Coronal Mass Ejection                    

event Nr.

DATE

YEAR- MONTH- DAY

event strength of flare

arrival date GOES/

impact begin GOES-

(fluct.)

 

initial values

of first solar wind shock

impact range with values above 100 nT peak impact duration peak value (nT) relative mass value*

main impact range ( above 100 nT)

longitudes

peak impact region (geographic )

duration of geomagnetic fluctuations( vibrations) first day strongest Earthquake magnitude volcano eruptions Earthquake data -EMSC ( 2) Earthquake data - EMSC(2) electronic disturbances space weather conditions (NOAA) remarks remarks
20 AUG- 09

Fully Halo CME ( fast)

erupted twords SWW direction

X 6.9/2B

associated with weak type II and IV radio sweeps

08: 05 UTC

 

 

AR* 11263

solen/ NOAA

and internal

 

between

 

AUG 10-11            
19 AUG- 08 wek partially Earth directed CME M 3.5 AUG- 10?                                  
18 AUG- 04 FULLY HALO CME M 9.3 AUG-08: The arrival of CME 3 must have interfered with the geomagnetic disturbances of the previous CMEs .The geomagnetic fields was on AUG 09 still vibrating/fluctuating by the CME impact with 205 nT on AUG- 05 after 18:00 UTC-
17 AUG- 03 Earth directed HALO CME M 6.0 AUG- 05 16:00 UTC

highest!

> 200* nT!

13- 24hUTC-1- UTC-12 11h 205 nT 557 15°W- 180°W UTC-6=

AUG 05- 16:00UTC

AUG- 07- 10:00UTC=

42 hours

none yet

plates are still too hot.

     

Soon after 19:00 mayn storm were reported worldwide:

Germany/ Munich

Hurricane West of Mexico

Hurricane caribic

16 AUG- 02- Earth directed CME (partially?) M 1,6
AUG- 04

 

22:00 UTC

 

(high)

100- 125 nT

UTC-10- UTC- 12

2h 125 25

150° W- 180° W

 

 

 

AUG 04-22:00 UTC-

AUG 05-9:00 UTC

(11 hours)

           

event Nr.

DATE

YEAR- MONTH- DAY

event strength of flare

arrival date GOES/

impact begin GOES-

solar wind speed

main impact time ( UTC) impact range with values above 100 nT peak impact time / duration peak value (nT)

(internal)

relative mass value*

impact longitudes and time zones:

main impact region (longitude)

mainCME impact region first day strongest Earthquake magnitude after imopact likely related volcano eruptions Earthquake data -EMSC ( 2) Earthquake data - EMSC(3) electronic disturbances other: remarks after effects on geomagnetical field
15
CME had only minimal impact or passed the Earth
14 2011-JULY- 28 C flare with associated larger p*- CME (C flare) not registered or qualified by NOAA July- 30- 8:00 UTC 13-16:00 UTC 11:00 UTC- 19:30 UTC 3 h 140 nT 60 UTC+ 4- (ongoing) 15° E - 90 ° W

CENTRAL EUROPE ATLANTIC EASTERN S- AMERICA USA

M 6.4 - NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN - 2011-07-30 18:53 UTC ( class 2)       medium-   the event overlapsed a previous weak solar shock on July 29  
13 2011

JULY-27

UTC

weak p*- CME

 

(C flare) not registered or qualified by NOAA JULY 29 6:30 UTC 6.30- 18:30 10:00 UTC- 15:00 UTC 12 120 nT 30 UTC + 6 - UTC-6 30° E- 45° W EASTERN EUROPE-ATLANTIC EASTERN S- AMERICA         low   th events was just an increase in solar wind intensity and caused no gm.disturbances  
11 2011

JULY-18

UTC

weak P* -CME

 

(C flare) not register or qualified by NOAA July- 19- 6:00 UTC 15: 30 UTC

11- 20 UTC

(15° E- 120° W

9 h 132 nT 144 UTC - 3/ 4 45° W Europe Atlantik USA East Greenland part of S America

M 6.1 - KYRGYZSTAN - 2011-07-19 19:35 UTC

  M 6.0 - SOLOMON ISLANDS - 2011-07-20 22:05 UTC M 6.0 - FIJI REGION - 2011-07-22 06:56 UTC jet stream by CH? Coronal hole CH 644 in Earth facing position geomagnetic disturbances lasted until July- 23- 6:00 UTC

intensive heavy weathers and rainfalls in Europ( mainly Germany)

Heatwave in the US

10 2011 July 19- (continuing on July 20)

unknown/unreported event-(possibly CH 466?)

no single report!

? `JULY 19 7:00 UTC 15:00 UTC 10:30- 20:30 UTC 10 hrs 125 nT 112 30° E- 120 ° W UTX-+2 to UTC - 10

EUROPE EAST AMERICA, ALASKA

            no CME was reported, effects could be caused by large coronal hole ( CH 466)

July 19/ 20: intensive heavy weathers and rainfalls in Europ( mainly Germany)

Heatwave in the US

09 2011

JULY-11

11:03 UTC

small CME

+type II radio sweep

C2

61F

JULY- 14

 

4:00 UTC

550 - 750 km/s

15:30 UTC 14:30 - 21:30 UTC 7 hrs. 115 nT 52,5

54°W- 135° W

UTC- 3- UTC- 9

UTC- 5

75° W

USA EAST

GOM, COLUMBIA PERU CHILE

M 5.2 - SOUTHERN PERU - 2011-07-14 18:34 UTC

M 5.0 - TARAPACA, CHILE - 2011-07-14 18:57 UTC

2011-JULY-14/ 10: 36 p.m :Indonesia's Mount Lokon Erupts, Panicking Residents M 6.0 - SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION - 2011-07-15 13:26 UTC

M 6.2 - ALASKA PENINSULA - 2011-07-16 19:59 UTC

M 6.0 - OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE - 2011-07-16 00:26 UTC

    weak CME  
08 2011

JULY-09

1:00 UTC

CME B4

JULY- 11/

 

3:00 UTC

446 - 774 km/s

9:30 UTC 12:30 - 18:00 UTC

16:00- 17:00 UTC

 

125 nT 75

12:00- 16:00 UTC

UTC - UTC -4

 

0°- 60° W

60° W: Greenland West- Venezuela - USA East coast- Brasil-Argentina- Chile-

M 6.4 - NEGROS, PHILIPPINES - 2011-07-11 20:47 UTC

M 4.7 - WESTERN TURKEY - 2011-07-11 16:09 UTC

2011-JULY- 11: increases in activity occured at AOBA (Vanuatu) -

alert for LOKON EMPUNG( IND) raised to highest level

M 5.5 - COSTA RICA - 2011-07-12 20:11 UTC

M 5.6 - BANDA SEA - 2011-07-12 21:06 UTC

M 5.2 - TONGA - 2011-07-13 07:25 UTC

M 5.2 - NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN - 2011-07-13 07:19 UTC

    short and fast but very weak CME with low- medium effects ( 1-2)  
07 2011

JULY- 03

0:24 UTC

small H*- CME

B9.5 flare

11244

JULY- 6

04:00 UTC

590 km/s

16:30 UTC

14- 19 UTC

15- 18:00 UTC

 

112 nT

PAI: 08

30 UTC- 3- - 6 45° W- 90° W Central Greenland- Central N America-South America M 7.6 - KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION - 2011-07-06 19:03 UTC

recent USGS reports:

HEKLA/ Iceland has on July- 08 shown siginificant first signs for an eruption

ETNA/ SICIL ( July- 07)

IJEN ( Indonesia)- JULY- 10

M 6.0 - KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION - 2011-07-07 09:10 UTC

M 5.3 - WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA - 2011-07-07 19:21 UTC

none    

Very weak CME with low effects

several effective CH*!

M 7.1 - OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN - 2011-07-10 00:57 UTC

M 6.0 - KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION - 2011-07-11 07:15 UTC

06

CME

P*

JUNE- 21 16:00 UTC c7 flare JUNE- 23/ 700 km/s 02:00 UTC

16:00

2:00 - 23:00 UTC

16- 18:00 UTC

 

112 nT

PAI: 18

54

 

30° W - 165° W

45 W- 75° W

N- America

Brasil

M 5.2 - EASTERN TURKEY - 2011-06-23 07:34 UTC  

M 7.3 - FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS - 2011-06-24 03:09 UTC

M 6.2 - SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS - 2011-06-24 06:33 UTC

  low   very weak holo CME JUNE- 25 disturbances on geomagnetical field are continuing
05

CME

P*

JUNE- 19   C flare JUNE- 21/

3:00 UTC

600 km/s

12.30 UTC

12:30-21:00 UTC

15:00 - 16:00 UTC

 

140 nT

PAI: 10- 12

160

 

O° W - 165° W

o° Greenwich- 45 °W Western Europe/ Atlantic

M 6.0 - SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS - 2011-06-21 02:04 UTC

M 3.6 - SICILY, ITALY - 2011-06-21 10:02 UTC

    M 6.7 - NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN - 2011-06-22 21:50 UTC     earthquake magnitudes and frequency< slightly increased throughout Europe on June- 21 Munich Marienplatz- June- 21- 2011- 17:00 UTC: : Transformator fire in subway station
04 CME 2011-JUNE- 14   M class prominence JUNE- 17- 2011

2:04 UTC

430 km/s

15:00 UTC

10:00 UTC UTC

 

15:00- 16:00 UTC:

 

125 nT

PAI: 11

85

 

150 E° -165 °?

60° W

(UTC-3/ UTC - 4)

W of Greenland to Bolivia/ Eastern Argentine

2011-06 18 11:31:04 UTC - M5.9-OFFSHORE HONSHU / JAPAN

M 5.6 - ERITREA - ETHIOPIA REGION - 2011-06-17 09:16 UTC

M 5.2 - PNG

M 4.9/ 2011 June 18 05:38:25 UTC- OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE

2011 June 18 10:49:11 UTC: M 4.8 - OFFSHORE N- CALIFORNIA

Magnitude 4.7 - GUERRERO, MEXICO

2011 June 18 05:56:31 UTC- M 5.1 - BALLENY ISLANDS REGION

2011 June 18 17:30:26 UTC M 4.8 - GUATEMALA

2011 June 18 22:11:22 UTC - M 4.8 - NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHERN PERU

    only weak CMe with very low effects adds to previous CME effects
03

CME

P*
2011- June- 07 18:00 UTC M 2.5 JUNE- 10- 2011

8:11 UTC

470 km/s

  12:00 UTC- 23: 00 UTC 15:00- 21:00 UTC( appr 5 hours)

130 nT

PAI: 08- 11

165

 

long. 45° W- 135° W

 

 

 

Africa, Atlantic USA- Alaska peninsula-South America

M 6.0 - SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND - 2011-06-13 02:20 UTC

M 6.4 - MOLUCCA SEA - 2011-06-13 14:31 UTC

JUNE- 13-2011: Eruption at

NABRO/ ERITREA

EMSC: JUNE- 12- 2011

EMSC- June- 12-2011-(2)

 

EMSC- JUNE- 13-2011

EMSC- JUNE- 14- 2011

EMSC- JUNE- 15- 2011

server of EMSC down on June- 09   this CME had a rather weak magnitude on GOES but with a long duration peak the impact of the 3 CME overlapsed each other. increased geomagn fluctuations and flux intensity were observed from June- 10 / fluctuations: - 30 nT) continuing until June- 13
02

CME

H*>

2011-June- 02 unknown C 3 JUNE-0 7- 2011 / 500- 610 km/s 20:00 UTC 14:00 - 19:00 UTC 20:00- 22:00 UTC

150 nT

PAI: 09- 14

125 135° longitude West   California- Vanuatu M 6.0 - SOUTHERN PERU-2011 June 08 03:06:18 UTC  

EMSC- JUNE- 07- 2011

 

EMSC- JUNE- 08- 2011

EMSC- JUNE- 09-2011

June- 04- 09(G1 on -NOAA scale )   floddings?  
01

CME

P*

2011- JUNE- 01 18: 15 UTC C4 JUNE- 04 2011 550- 630 km/s 22:00 UTC 12:00- 22:00 UTC 22:00- 23:00 UTC

165 nT

PAI:15- 27

325 165° longitude West   Alaska- Chile WEst M 6.4 - WEST OF MACQUARIE ISLAND - 2011-06-05 11:51 UTC JUNE- 04-strong eruption at Puyehue vulcano/ Chile at 16:30 local time

EMSC- JUNE-03-2011

EMSC- JUNE- 04-2011

EMSC- JUNE- 04- 2011 (2)

EMSC- JUNE- 04-2011(3)

EMSC- JUNE- 05-2011

EMSC- JUNE- 06- 2011

June- 04- 09(G1 on -NOAA scale )   strong thunderstorms all over the planet

DISCOVERY NEWS- PHENOMENAL IMAGES OF THE PUYEHUE VOLCANO eruption on June- 04- 2011- 16: 30 local time

 

date

evaluated by NOAA

measured by x- ray flux

 

impact date

1, 5 minutes prior to Earth impact

first impact time + time, when values rise above 100 nT

 

(>time when values rise above 100 nT)

region / UTC time aith values above 100 nT

on GOES magnetometer

PAI= Planetary A index by solen.info

*internal value= triangle plane :

duration time above 100 nT x ( times (peak value> 100 nT : divided with 2) =

longitudes

" midday time in longitude during CME peak magnitude

 

likely affected countries

1- 96 hours after

volcano eruptions

after CME impact

after CME impact

known report of severe incidents

geomagn storm values on (scale 1- 5)

remarks

CH* = coronal hole

geomagnetical storms

  p* = partial CME h* = Halo CME                              

 

 
some remarks on the huge Solar Observer Program by NASA and NOAA ( 7 satellites dozends of ground stations and institutes...)

latest news/ informations on this project:

AUG- 16- 2011: yesterday, I wrote to Mr Alvestad who makes the daily " solar and terrestrial activitity report" on solen.info about when this CME (= coronal mass ejection) ass. with the X 69 flare actually had impact on Earth. When we google 4 "CME" , we get informed, that CMEs are the greatest existing permanent danger from our Sun. Now, when anybody reads a " fast fully halo CME" was ass. with an x 6.9 flare"( remark an X 6.9 flare is 200 times stronger than usual C 3 flare)most of us will think this might or must even create an extreme danger toThe Earth to our technical devices and to us. So I asked him concretely how NOAA/ NASA measures 1. the strength of a CME and 2. the arrival time .( you can watch this CME ejection on Aug- 09- 8:05 UTC on my last youtube vid : The eruptions seems indeed to heads in all directions.

Mr A explained me now that this CME was just a faint (" halo, fully") CME that EVEN MADE NOT ANY measurable values on GOES magnetometer that measures the magnetic flux intsnity of the geomagnetic field . GOES are geostationary satellites shich rotate synchrtonous with the Earth above one specific location ( Boulder. USA)=is just good to detect disturbances on the GM field but CANNOT measure the strength of an CME impact). ( I have still to ask him whether he. resp the NOPAA( where he gets his data from) knew that also before he issued his report) Okay... and the xtre. Thus GOES 1. covers all positions around the earth with all their different field densities. 2 it moves- as each location on the Earth- once a day into the so socalled midnight position ( by geophysicians also called " geopause" or magnetopause) , as there the geomagnetic field strength is lowest- by the way, a good proof how the geomagnetic field is indeed supplied by the sun wind. This is why GOES mag draws a curve of the daily geomagnetic field density , that does indicate the real amount of solar wind that hits the Earth logically with the highest intensity at the current midday position. There are 7 satellites in place not only as a toy for astrophysical studies, but also supposed to create reliable Data ( so NOAA) for a socalled space weather prediction,. But the only instrument that really MEASURES or INDICATES at least the arrioval of such a deangerous CME cannot even measure the impact strength . All what it is good for, is that it indicate the fluctuations/ deformations or however the efects are called caused by an CME

The deflections observed yesterday- Aug 14- 16 2011 on GOES mag. so solen.info insisted were "caused by an" high speed sun wind stream from CH 471". I replied sun wind speed were rather at average of 400 km/ sthe days before Aug 14/ 15 , but solen. info instisted the fluctuations were caused by CH 471 ( which has almost decayed yet and rotated out of its Earth facing position.Then Mr A told me ( he has perharps access to ACE interplanetary solar wind data which as he claimed measured up to 500 km/s yesterday. I could find nothing else than broken links on the ACE side when searching for the REAL TIME SOLAR WIND DATA PLOT ( remark CH 471 is recurrent means decaying and all recurrent CH solen,info informed about ( in the reportsd I read) were associated with a slow down of Sun wind below the average speed of 400 km/s. to sometimes even not much more than 200 km/ s., while stable or developing CH accelerate sun wind to high speed streams with up to 900- 1000 km/s.)
Mr A insisted ; the xtreme deflections on GOES on 15/ 16 Aug WERE NOT the ( very late) arrival of this CME on Aug 14 with 24 hours impact duration.

But I was not asking about Coronal holes but about what NOAA says that finally happened with that fast fully halo CME triggered by an X 6.9 flare on Aug- 09- 8:05 UTC

So i told him finally my impression of this huge solar observer project and that " space weather prediction" is obviously a flop! WHY?

1.You have TO JUDGE with your Eyes by Sohoor Stereo img. whether any CME impacts on Earth . There is no instrument in place which can do that with the necessary reliability.

2 there is no way to measure the strength of any CME or of that part which will arrive on Earth. 2. this also only can be JUDGED- as we say: "pi times thumb"- E

Here an example what such a weather prediction will make: If someone like me would shouts out" ALERT" after reading that such a " fast fully halo CME was observed associoated with a X 6.9 flare )!!) and there is not anyone at NASA or SoHO who can judge with that " pi times thumb method" what this CME actially can do you would have 80 % false alarms. Soon, noone would react anymore on your warnings: planse would neither make an emergency landing nor would any Nuclar Power Station be shut down, due to the high probability that CME cause high overvoltage currents on overland power grids those can destroy all pumps and electrical devices and instruments in an NPS , what would lead if any operator dows not find a way to stop it by a mission almost impossible to an unstoppable meltdown ( comp. Forsmark 2006 and Fukushima 2011)

While any unreliable warnings would be ignored ( on day shutdown of an NPS costs the electricity companies also Millions of dollars which they then would like to charge from those who issued the overestimated alert) , the next CME can be so strong that destroys all or will cause a huge cartastrophy ( compare.: Japan- NOAA has issued prior to March 11 2011 ( "311") prior to the arrival of two strong CMEs a "G1 alert" , which was too low for an shutdown of Japans nuclear power stations . These were "shutdown" then by the Tsunami

3. NONE of these instruments and machines and as it turned out also no software or human operator can.predict the real ARRIVAL TIME of a CME ON Earth! In all previous predictions- , NOAA went to 90 % wrong Why?: The Sun is 150 mio. km away and SoHO orbits in 1.2 Mio km distance. The speed of an CME is determined by the Sun creating the steady changing solar wind speed (SWS) . If you measure close to the Earth 400 km/s the SWS speed close to the Sun might have changed to 700 km/s duirng a CME ejection and you will be informed about that then appr. 2 days later. TOO LATE JUST AS BEFORE! This huge solar project might be good for anything like astrophysical studies but does not at all what it is supposed to be: a tool for better CME forecast , which is nothing else than what NOAA calls " space weather prediction.

I have to call it an 90 % flop. This is why I will carefully think about whether to contuinue this project here or not

Thanks!

alien-homepage.de

 

 

 

 

Essay- AUG- 15- 2011:

WHAT IS A CME ( Coronal Mass Ejection)? ...will follow later

ABOUT IMPACT PREDICTION: NOAA prediction on CME arrival times goes always wrong (they estimate it rather too early) due to the steady changing sun wind speeds. As far as I know there is currently no way to improve arrival preditions.

ABOUT DETECTION OF AN CME ON GOES MAGNETOMETER: The geomagnetic field is comparable to an electromagnet, supplied by a constant average impact of high energetic sun winds. During an CME impact ( which is nothing else than an extra portion sun wind above average vales), the geomagnatic flux intensity must rise over average values (average values usually are between 50 and 100 nT). Additionally, CMEs mostly cause fluctuations ( up and downs in the data graph similar to a seismograph) If this all is veryfied, I begin to evaluate specific values such as impact zones with values above 100 NT in those CME will cause significant effects.

ABOUT SOLAR WIND SPEED: Science says that the steady changing solar wind speed is determined by certain activities in the Sun itself. Allthough a extreme fast CME might eject with a speed of sometimes even appr. 1000 km/ s, the solar wind speed will slow it down soon to its own current speed! The problems with measurement is: NO satellite would survive on an orbit so close to the Sun, to measure this " real time" solar wind speed when a CME is emitted from the Sun°! SoHo for example is in a distance of appr. 1.2 Mio km from the Earth ( this is appr. 148 Mio km distance to the Sun!)However: Solar wind is not light or radiation. Solar wind is mass- more exactly so called "Sun (proto-) plasma-a kind of soup, subatomic particles turn into, if they are set out to the conditions and enormous heat ON AND inside the SUN ! So- differently to light ( that travels with its speed of light) CME plasma moves with that speed to which it at was initially accelerated, resp its is influenced by the current sun wind "main stream" Thus- a CME usually needs- due to the changing average sun wind speed 2- 4 day to arrive on Earth and to make any effects here. If it approaches the Earth its energy and mass load can be first time measured and estimated , when it passes by the magnetometers on the satellites GOES or ACE:

Its not clear, whether one faster moving "sun wind package" pushes on the one before and would accelerate that stream ahead with a little time delay as we experience that with electromagnetism.. If so, the currently measures speed would be therefore be about that speed the sun wind currently has , where it is emmited near to the Sun . If this is not the case, a faster sun wind stream following a slower one ahead may "overtake it" but surely createregional high sunwinds concentrations as the result out of this tailback . Ido not know, whether this question has been researched and answered yet that nor that I have found or read any eassy about that yet..

But however. The sun wind speed measured during a CME eruption never represents exactly that speed , a CME will have on its arrival! And this is the first but major problem with any space weather prediction. Who will ground an airplane or shutdown a n nuclear power plant ( due to worries of overvoltages) if the CME "might" arrive in a time scale of 1- 3 days? Or even do nothing at all? Because, the second problem is related to the first: ; The images of the sun observatories do not allow certain conclusions about: HOW STRONG any CME is- ( means how much mass was definitely set free) nor is there any instrument yet that could measure that exactly! Such as a laser based instrument which could- with a beam sent from one satellite such as Stereo to another- such as SDO maybe scan exactly the size , any CME "cloud" really has!

All published about it ( including my own forecasts)is therefore based on human estimation! When these necessary magnetometer values are available then by ACE or GOES, the CME will just need appr 15 minutes to reach Earth- to late for immidiate warnings or at least to get on any action

ABOUT DIFFERENT CME QUALITIES: ...will follow later

ABOUT MY " CME TRACKING": So, I generally begin my CME tracking, if GOES magnetometer shows a first " solar wind shock" - a sudden rise in the geomagnetic field density ( measured in nanoTesla) intensity regarded as typical for an CME impact.

There are some specific problems as well with the GOES magnetometer , which moves in a geostationary orbit and comes therefore once a day behind the earth into the socalled geopause, where magnetic field values drop to zero. On the data plot. this is marked as " M" ( "M" stands for Midnight") This at all creates no line formed graph but a waveform, which reflects the different values GOES measures in different ancles to that line Earth- Sun, where the incoming stream is logically most intensive.

The "N" value ( N = noon) is the value measured on this maximal concnetration reflecting most exactly the real CME impact strength onto the Earth surface. For this issue also ACE values on theb " interplanetery magnet field" are some helpful allthough they don`t really seem to indicate what really arrives on the geomagnetic field. Due to these conditions it will take some hours to verify whether any change on the geomagnetic field is real any CME impact. This is indicated, if the graph shows a sharp rise or intensive fluctuations but can be varified first if the geomagnetic flux intensity ( measured in nanoTesla) significantly exceeds average values.

PROBLEMS WITH INSTRUMENTS AND ARRANGEMENTS: Real values on the strength of a CME (due to the instrumentary) can only be evaluated when GOES arrives at the "N" position ("N" =NOON position= GOES stands then on that direct " middday" line from Sun to Earth, where any CME currently mainly impacts ) This value does not reflect very well the previous impact values on that day , but is the only available value to be evaluated for further analysis.

Notes on this data table:

Backwards since October 2011 , I applied a a new form of template based on a calendar which gives a better overview how CME impacts Earthquakes volcano activities and other phenomenenons are - at least- as I surely can claim and say" COINCIDENT. The graphics I make since August 2011 will also appear in a monthly and improved form . Since October 2011 i also list ( in addition to Earthquakes and volcano activitiy data ) also heavy weathers, especially floodings, in my< reports. I do this since several heavy flooddings in 2011 obviously are combined to temporarely melting of glaciers or permaice regions in the Alpes Andes and the Himalaja. Tempororay ice melts ( as I believe surely related to CME impacts) has contributed much more to the floodings we witnessed in 2011,than the official ( sometimes even political motivated and influenced ) scientist may admit in news media and TV shows. "Temporary glacial melt" means that this melt also will stop again and the permaice might even recover over the next winter.

What is known as global warming ( a process that- as I believe, but also many experts confirm- has much more to do with the current sun activity but nothing with Co2. With a higher CO2 concentrations it woul become rather colder on Earth. The explanatiopn why the sun activity is so high since 60 years , when the global warming began to rise , is likely another newly discovered solar activity cycle that has - different to the one in which we are now- a period of around 60 years. amd most likeley the maxima of both occure currentlys at the same time ( 2012- 2013)

A MUST SEE! Watch the BBC 5 documentary: BBC5 ( video documentary) The great global warming swindle"

read more in textbox:

 

 

The following graphics and table in the register cards ( click on to open and close)

You find a 1. >A summary of all events for 2011 in the register card above

- 2. >all detailed single event reports in the monthly register cards below.)

 

NOTICES( NOV_ 2011) A new monthly table- resulting from my full solar and environmental blog combined with a new graphic should give a better overview to the issue, how coronal mass ejections, earthquakes volcano eruptions and other events are correlated, resp. coincident . At the moment , I can only represent you the new template I have made for the future of this reports. Data will be inserted from now once at the end of a month from that database I have collected in my daily updated solar/ environmental report.

It is a new elaborated version. which is also easier to handle for me: Please note: Read the description to understand how the many informations the graphic chart must be interpretated by simple symbols .Find more informations just by the date of the event about any single events in the monthly detailed rich text report below.

PLEASE NOTE: First CLICK on the map image to enlarge it and to see all details!

>For each single day of the month you find a socalled " Earth impact map" above its geomagnetic data plot . Unfortunately, I had to turn this global map for 180°. So- now -what normally is displayed on a global map in its upper part as the North , is in on the lower part and opposite!. This might be a bit inconvenient for some, but there was no other possibility to match the technical requirements of this chart!. You can load down the image file and turn it for 180 ° then the maps appear as usual!

 

CME TRACKING REPORTS IN 2011:

 

click on the following blue backcolored tabs to open and close the register cards with particular event reports in 2011:

EARTH DIRECTED CME events : single reports/ JUNE 2011

05

06

MAJOR EVENT < NR

JUNE- 19/21- 2011

June 19: A partial halo CME was observed by LASCO beginning at 16:36 UTC following an event in region 11237. A flank impact is possible from this CME on June (21) 22 or 23.
June 21: A halo CME was observed after a C7 LDE in region 11236. Although most of the core of the CME was observed over the northern limbs, Earth appears to be in the path of the southern part of the core. The CME will likely reach Earth on June 23 or 24 and could cause a major geomagnetic disturbance.

  2011                                        
Nr issue eruption date/SUN eruption time /SUN strength of flare impact date ( GOES) impact begin GOES- first fluctuations main impact time ( UTC) impact range / values above 100 nT) peak impact time ( duration) and value (nT) PAI max impact longitudes and time zone):

 

main impact region (longitude)

mainCME impact region first day strongest Earthquake magnitude volcano eruptions Earthquake data -EMSC ( 2) Earthquake data - EMSC(2) electronic disturbances space weather conditions (NOAA) remarks after effects on geomagnetical field
06

CME

P*

JUNE- 21 16:00 UTC c7 flare JUNE- 23 02:00 UTC

16:00

2:00 - 23:00 UTC

16- 18:00 UTC

112 nT

 

 

30° W - 165° W

45 W- 75° W

N- America

Brasil

M 5.2 - EASTERN TURKEY - 2011-06-23 07:34 UTC  

M 7.3 - FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS - 2011-06-24 03:09 UTC

M 6.2 - SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS - 2011-06-24 06:33 UTC

  low   very weak holo CME JUNE- 25 disturbances on geomagnetical field are continuing
05

CME

P*

JUNE- 19   C flare JUNE- 21 3:00 UTC

12.30 UTC

12:30-21:00 UTC

15:00 - 16:00 UTC

140 nT

 

 

O° W - 165° W

o° Greenwich- 45 °W Western Europe/ Atlantic

M 6.0 - SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS - 2011-06-21 02:04 UTC

M 3.6 - SICILY, ITALY - 2011-06-21 10:02 UTC

    M 6.7 - NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN - 2011-06-22 21:50 UTC     earthquake magnitudes and frequency< slightly increased throughout Europe on June- 21 Munich Marienplatz- June- 21- 2011- 17:00 UTC: : Transformator fire in subway station
 

P*

= Partial impact

H*=

Holo ( earth directed

                           
 

PREVIOUS CME EVENT ON SUN:

                             

DATE

YEAR- MONTH- DAY

event region

TIME ( UTC)

CME description

report:

strength of flare causing this CME

Sun spot number

solar flux

PAI  

solar wind speed

anticipated CME impact time ( NOAA) associated main impact region( internal):            
05 2011 JUNE- 19 partial holo CME 11237 16: 40 UTC     C flare          

June- 23

             
05 2011 JUNE- 21 holo CME 11236 03:20 UTC larger CME   C 7 flare 43 96 07   374 and 440 km/s JUNE- 24              

 

 

04

MAJOR EVENT /NR

03/ JUNE- 14- 2011

June 14: A partial halo CME was observed in LASCO images beginning at 06:02 UTC after a prominence eruption in the southeast quadrant. There's a chance of weak effects from this CME on June 17/18.

   
  2011                                        
  issue eruption date/SUN eruption time /SUN strength of flare impact date ( GOES) impact begin GOES- first fluctuations peak impact time ( UTC) duration of magnitude peak peak impact value (nT) PAI max impact range:

main impact region (longitude)

mainCME impact region strongest Earthquake magnitude volcano eruptions Earthquake data -EMSC ( 2) Earthquake data - EMSC(2) electronic disturbances space weather conditions (NOAA) remarks after effects on geomagnetical field
04 weak CME JUNE- 14 6:02 UTC

M-class

prominence

JUNE- 17- 2011 2:04 UTC 16:00 UTC   125 nT   150° E 60° W

W of Greenland to Bolivia/ Eastern Argentine

               
                                           
                                           
                                           
                                           
 

PREVIOUS CME EVENT ON SUN:

                             

Nr.

YEAR- MONTH- DAY event region

TIME ( UTC)

CME description

report:

strength of flare causing this CME

Sun spot number

solar flux

PAI  

solar wind speed

anticipated CME impact time ( NOAA) associated main impact region( internal):            
04 2011 JUNE- 07- 2011

CME

after M 2.5 Proton flare

11226
( North western limb)
6:41 UTC wide fast (holo?) CME

solen

NOAA

M 2.5 49 98 07     JUNE- 09- 12:00 UTC

Greenwich 00 longitude( Europe)

This forecast issued by NOAA turned out to by not correct.

           

 

 

 

03

MAJOR EVENT/ NR

June- 07 2011

(www.solen.info/- June- 07-2011): A wide, full halo CME was observed after the M2.5 event in region 11226. The CME could reach Earth sometime during the latter half of June 9.

event description > report is ready- event description follows later  
related links: SOHO: images and videos of th M 25 flare on JUne- 07- 2011       GOES- Magnetometer- June- 09- 11- 2011  

CME IMPACT ON EARTH:

UTC time                
DATE YEAR- MONTH- DAY Planetary A index ( = average k index of that day)

time of significant rise of geomagnetic flux in nT as indicated on GOES- magnetometer. remark:

remarks

geomagnetic flow density and/ 0r: fluctuations (+/- average)

by: GOES

in nano Teslas (nT)

remarks

 

  geographic region of full CME impact zone(midday time) (UTC time/ longitude) location of first registered related earthquake Earthquake data( by EMSC or NEIC ) remarks volcanic activites effects on on power grids or radio transmission

coincident incidents?

Emergency situation at nuclear reactor plant at Fort Calhoun/ Nebraska/ USA on June- 06?

reports:

 

  2011 JUNE-13 PAI: 11   intensive fluctuations on gemoagnetical field continued

+/+ 30 nT

maximum: 115 nT

minor geomagnetic storm      

M 6.0 - SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND - 2011-06-13 02:20 UTC

M 6.4 - MOLUCCA SEA - 2011-06-13 14:31 UTC

The quakes are a typical cool down/ contraction effect after the heating( expanding effects of a CME to the Earth crust have diminuished      
  2011 JUNE-11 PAI: 11   intensive fluctuations on gemoagnetical field continued

+/+ 30 nT

maximum: 110 nT

minor geomagnetic storm?    

M 5.5 - SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN - 2011-06-10 15:32 UTC

M 5.4 - KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND- 2011 June 09 20:16:30 UTC

 

M 5.6 - ERITREA - ETHIOPIA REGION - 2011-06-12 21:03 UTC>

>> a serial ( swarm) of earthquakes occures since June 12 in the region of Ethiopia, possibly related to volcanic acti9vities the strongest quake yet had M 5.6

     
  2011 JUNE-10   15:00- 20:00 UTC( appr 5 hours) the impact of the CME increased the intensity of geomagn fluctuations / fluctuations: - 30 nT) 130 nT this CME ha a rather weak magnitude on GOES but with a long duration peak   long. 45° W- 60° W            
  2011 JUNE-10   12: 35 UTC  

115

values above 100 nT are a sure indicator to speak from a CME impact              
  2011 JUNE-10   11: 35 UTC the values started sharply but slowly to rise at 11:35 UTC

11: 35 UTC : 75 nT

12: 30 UTC: 100 nT

most likely the impact of the CME from JUNE 07!            
  2011 JUNE-10   9:00 UTC significant fluctuations began at values of 80 nT>                
  2011 JUNE-10 PAI: 08 8:00 UTC low fluctuations indicated minor disturbances of the geomagnetic field   No impact of the expected shock of the CME was registered on GOES yet.            
03 2011 JUNE-09 PAI*: 05 05:00 UTC Sudden rise in geomagnetic flow density 65 > 75>55 minor disturbances of the geomagnetic field   image above (SDO/ SOHO) : one of the spectaculous images from the M 2.5 flare on June- 07- 2011          
      distance to Earth: appr. 1,5 Million km) distance to Earth: appr. 44.000 km)   (NOAA:_ k index)                  
                   

PREVIOUS CME EVENT ON SUN:

                 

Nr

DATE

YEAR- MONTH- DAY

event region

TIME ( UTC)

CME description

report:

 

strength of flare causing this CME

Sun spot number

solar flux

PAI

solar wind speed

anticipated CME impact time ( NOAA) associated main impact region( internal):
03 2011 JUNE- 07- 2011

CME

after M 2.5 Proton flare

11226
( North western limb)
6:41 UTC wide fast (holo?) CME

solen

NOAA

  M 2.5 49 98 07   JUNE- 09- 12:00 UTC

Greenwich 00 longitude( Europe)

This forecast issued by NOAA turned out to by not correct.

 

 

     

MAJOR EVENT NR>

01/ 02

www.solen.info/- June- 03- 2011; TWO CMEs observed by SOHO and LASCA on JUNE- 01 and 02- 2011

   
   

event description (written on: JUNE- 06- 2011- 14:00 UTC):

solen info described the two holo CMEs on June- 01- and 02- 2011 as " faint and slow. The exact time when the first one evolved on June- 01 is not known. The second emerged on June- 02 around 17: 45 UTC time. Due to my plan to track the CME- as far as it possible- when it hits the Earth, I observed the NOAA Earth based magnetometer on June- 03 and June- 04. On June - 04 around 09 AM UTC time, the magnetic field density began slowly to rise from around 65 nano Tesla to 100 NT at 12:00 AM. as this study is new for me, I supposed this is the usual fluctuation in the geomagnetic field ( I will have to compare previous and later data without CME influences to be sure:) The first CME ( CME 1) on June- 01 was described by solen as a longer event emerging from an C4 flare in the very active region 11226 which had produced already around 40 C flares in one week before it rotated in Earth direction and itv was very likely it would sent one or more CMEs to Earth. The ejection of CMEs as such ( as SOHOvideos show) is a relatively short event, but the Sun plasma when escaping from the Sun gravity does not move in form of a flat proceeding wall but forms rather a 3 dimensional kind of cloud which moves then through space. This is important for any interpretation of the data measured by SOHO and the associated Earth based observatories ( magnetometers) Some thinner parts of the CME will move ahead , some behind while the main amount of that sun plasma matter will move in the middle of the sun wind cloud.

Puyehue vulcano/ Chile.

This could be at all very valuable for a complete and precise HEAVY Earthquake prediction, with a calculation of both: But this one event where time and location fitted with the CME impact but must be " undermined with many more evidence : cases and examinations like this one here ( which is the first one I made.

   

CME IMPACT ON EARTH:

                   

DATE

YEAR- MONTH- DAY

reports of SOHO spacecraft ( distance to Earth: appr. 1,5 Million km)

or GOES SOLAR FLUX DATA

first indications of Earth impact on NOAA and NASA EARTH BASED Megnetometers

(time of significant rise of Planetary k and A index UT

remarks

geomagnetic flow density in nano Teslas

(NOAA:_ k index)

remarks  

geographic region of full CME impact zone(midday time)

(UTC time/ longitude)

 

location of first registered related earthquake

Earthquake data( by EMSC or NEIC )

remarks

volcanic activites

effects on on power grids or radio transmission

coincident incidents?

 

   
CME 2 ( emerged: JUNE- 02- impact on JUne 04)                    
Nr. 2011 JUNE-8   0:00 UTC- 4:00 UTC falling 90 > 50 fluctuating       M 6.0 - SOUTHERN PERU-2011 June 08 03:06:18 UTC            
02 2011 JUNE-7   20:00 UTC peak value 150 likely impact of weak or partial CME  

135° longitude West

( NORTHERN CALIFORNIA> EASTER ISLAND VANUATU)

 

M 5.4 - OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO-2011 June 07 14:55:20 UTC

the activity and frequency in the California region has slightly increased after 12:00 PST

Magnitude 3.0 - GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIFORNIA:

 

 

flooding from melting Rocky mountains ( June- 2011) coincident incident?

/>Emergency situation at nuclear reactor plant at Fort Calhoun/ Nebraska/ USA

June- 08- 2011:9: 40 local time (CST) electricity switch gear room caught fire- due to an overvoltage?

reports:

   
  2011 JUNE-7   17:00 UTC increasing 120^ fluctuating             JUNE- 08-2011 Wall Street Jornal    
  2011 JUNE-7   14:00 UTC above average                 JUNE- 09- 2011 Pennenergy.com    
  2011 JUNE-7 x-ray burst* 07:00 UTC                 fire in NPP JUNE- 09- 2011 Scientific American    
  2011 JUNE-6   15:00 UTC   105^             dam danger JUNE- 10- 2011 Daily cos.com    
  2011 JUNE-6   12:00 UTC   100^             no fly zone over plant JUNE- 14- 2011 ncr renegade.com    
  2011 JUNE-6   09:00 UTC   80^               JUNE- 09-2011 nuclearstreet.com    
02 2011 JUNE-6   08:00 UTC unknown 60^                      
CME 1 ( emerged: JUNE- 01- impact on June 04)                    
01 2011 JUNE- 5     8.00 UTC > 115 begin of weak geomagnetic storm     SOUTH OF AUSTRALIA M 6.4 - WEST OF MACQUARIE ISLAND - 2011-06-05 11:51 UTC This quake was measured with 6.3 by NEIC strong eruption at Puyehue vulcano/ Chile at 16:30 local time/ after CME main impact)        
  2011 JUNE- 5     6:00 UTC >75                      
  2011 JUNE- 4-                              
main CME impact time>     22.00 UTC 175    

UTC- 10/165° W

(region Alaska- Vanuatu)

      4: 30 local time strong eruption at Puyehue vulcano/ Chile after 230 earthquakes! many lightenings occured in the ash cloud   strong thunderstorms over Europe    
01 2011 JUNE- 4-   SOHO at 19:45 UTC 15: 40 UTC 100 > 110                      

PREVIOUS CME EVENT ON SUN:

                     

DATE

YEAR- MONTH- DAY

   

TIME

CME description

 

 

strength of flare causing this CME

Sun spot number

solar flux

PAI

solar wind speed

       
  2011 JUNE- 1- 2011     no report slow moving faint full holo CME     C4 132 112   448 - 616 km/s        
  2011 JUNE- 2- -     07:46 UTC slow moving faint full holo CME     C3 107 113   443 - 480 km        
explanations of items used:        
X ray burst sudden high and short magnitude in x ray flux measured in W·m−2 (watt per square metre power emitted from a surface.        
REMARKS: We should give solar geomagnetic Storms also names as we do it with terrestrical storms. Soon after this significant and most effective CME in June impacted, intensive lightenings occured all over the planet as well as transformer fires and other typocal electomagnetic effects. Due to its suggested high load of energetic electrones I give this one the name "ZEUS" after the Greek God with the thunderbolt.    

 

 
EARTH DIRECTED CME events : single reports/ JULY 2011

Inhalt

07

JULY- 03- 2010  

solen.info/ July 3: A small, possibly Earth directed CME was observed in STEREO imagery after a B9 event in region 11244 early in the day.

 

 

3 days-( geomagnetic field) magnometer chart by GOES (click on the image to enlarge it)>

  2011                                        

event Nr.

DATE

YEAR- MONTH- DAY

event strength of flare impact date ( GOES) impact begin GOES- first fluctuations main impact time ( UTC) impact range / values above 100 nT) peak impact time ( duration) and value (nT) PAI max impact longitudes and time zone):

 

main impact region (longitude)

mainCME impact region first day strongest Earthquake magnitude volcano eruptions Earthquake data -EMSC ( 2) Earthquake data - EMSC(2) electronic disturbances space weather conditions (NOAA) remarks after effects on geomagnetical field
07 2011

JULY- 03

0:24 UTC

small H*- CME

B9.5 flare

11244

JULY- 6 04:00 UTC

16:30 UTC

14- 19 UTC

15- 18:00 UTC

112 nT

08 (14?) UTC- 3- - 6 45° W- 90° W Central Greenland- Central N America-South America M 7.6 - KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION - 2011-07-06 19:03 UTC           Very weak CME with low effects intensive lightenings without thunderstorm in several regions of USA
 

P*

= Partial impact

H*=

Holo ( earth directed

                           
 

INITIAL CME EVENT ON SUN:

                     

event Nr.

DATE

YEAR- MONTH- DAY

event

strength of flare causing this CME

TIME ( UTC)

CME description

region report:

Sun spot number

solar flux

PAI

solar wind speed

anticipated CME impact time ( NOAA)        
07 2011 JULY- 03 small H*- CME B9.5 flare 0:24 UTC small holo CME 11244 solen 54 85 06 352 - 443 km/s. JULY- 4-6      

 

08

JULY- 09- 2010  

solen.info/ July 9: July 9: A long duration B4 event peaking near 01:00 UTC was associated with a filament eruption to the east of region 11247. A CME was observed and there's a fair chance this CME will reach Earth on July 12.

graphic right side: GOES magnetometer data prior and during CME impact (click on image to enlarge)-

(see examples under event numbers 1- 7 to see how the GOES magnetometer data plot is intepretated>

  2011                                          

event Nr.

DATE

YEAR- MONTH- DAY

event strength of flare arrival date ( GOES) impact begin GOES- first fluctuations main impact time ( UTC) impact range with values above 100 nT peak impact time ( duration peak value (nT) relative mass value* impact longitudes and time zones:

main impact region (longitude)

mainCME impact region first day strongest Earthquake magnitude volcano eruptions Earthquake data -EMSC ( 2) Earthquake data - EMSC(2) electronic disturbances space weather conditions (NOAA) remarks after effects on geomagnetical field
08 2011

JULY-09

1:00 UTC

CME B4

JULY- 11

 

3:00 UTC 9:30 UTC 12:30 UTC

16:00- 17:00 UTC

 

125 nT

PAI: 13

75

12:00- 16:00 UTC

UTC - UTC -4

 

0°- 60° W

60° W: Greenland West- Venezuela - USA East coast- Brasil-Argentina- Chile-

M 6.4 - NEGROS, PHILIPPINES - 2011-07-11 20:47 UTC

             
 

P*

= Partial impact

H*=

Holo ( earth directed

                             
 

INITIAL CME EVENT ON SUN:

                      add.chart below: GOES recorded a major disturbance on JULY- 09- possibly the flank impact of a CME that was not considered as "Earth directed" or rather the effect of three larger CORONAL HOLES (CH) currently in Earth facing positions:

event Nr.

DATE

YEAR- MONTH- DAY

event

strength of flare causing this CME

TIME ( UTC)

CME description

region report:

Sun spot number

solar flux

  PAI

solar wind speed

anticipated CME impact time ( NOAA)       GOES- JULY- 07- 2011
08 2011 JULY-09 CME B4 1:00 UTC long lasting event 11247 solen.info 55 85   12 335 and 485 km/s under . JULY- 11- 12     influence of a high speed stream from CH463

 

09

JULY- 11- 2010  

solen.info/ July 11: A long duration B4 event peaking near 01:00 UTC was associated with a filament eruption to the east of region 11247. A CME was observed and there's a fair chance this CME will reach Earth on July 12.

graphic right side: GOES magnetometer data prior and during CME impact (click on image to enlarge)-

(see examples under event numbers 1- 7 to see how the GOES magnetometer data plot is intepretated>

  2011                                          

event Nr.

DATE

YEAR- MONTH- DAY

event strength of flare

arrival date GOES/

impact begin GOES-

solar wind speed

main impact time ( UTC) impact range with values above 100 nT peak impact time ( duration peak value (nT) relative mass value* impact longitudes and time zones:

main impact region (longitude)

mainCME impact region first day strongest Earthquake magnitude volcano eruptions Earthquake data -EMSC ( 2) Earthquake data - EMSC(2) electronic disturbances space weather conditions (NOAA) remarks after effects on geomagnetical field
09 2011

JULY-11

11:03 UTC

small CME

+type II radio sweep

C2

61F

JULY- 14

 

4:00 UTC

550 - 750 km/s

15:30 UTC 14:30 - 21:30 UTC 7 hrs. 115 nT 52,5

54°W- 135° W

UTC- 3- UTC- 9

UTC- 5

75° W

USA EAST

GOM, COLUMBIA PERU CHILE

M 5.2 - SOUTHERN PERU - 2011-07-14 18:34 UTC

M 5.0 - TARAPACA, CHILE - 2011-07-14 18:57 UTC

2011-JULY-14/ 10: 36 p.m :Indonesia's Mount Lokon Erupts, Panicking Residents M 6.0 - SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION - 2011-07-15 13:26 UTC

M 6.2 - ALASKA PENINSULA - 2011-07-16 19:59 UTC

M 6.0 - OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE - 2011-07-16 00:26 UTC

     

The large electrical outage in Hannover/ Germany at 21: 35 UTC /Stromausfall in Hannover

July- 14-power-outage-leaves-many-trying-to-keep-cool

 

P*

= Partial impact

H*=

Holo ( earth directed)

                             
 

INITIAL CME EVENT ON SUN:

                       

event Nr.

DATE

YEAR- MONTH- DAY

event

strength of flare causing this CME

TIME ( UTC)

CME description

region report:

Sun spot number

solar flux

PAI

solar wind speed

anticipated CME impact time ( NOAA)     remarks:  
09 2011 JULY-11 CME

C2

61F

11:03 UTC

small CME

+type II radio sweep

11249 solen.info       446 and 774 km JULY 12- 13     high speed stream from CH464

 

10

11

JULY- 18- 2010

This weak CME was detected by myself later as it was not registered as important by NOAA and solen. info

link to GOES geomagnetic data for July 2911 / note the rise of geomagnetical flux U( nT) on July- 20!

  2011                                        

event Nr.

DATE

YEAR- MONTH- DAY

event strength of flare

arrival date GOES/

impact begin GOES-

solar wind speed

main impact time ( UTC) impact range with values above 100 nT peak impact time ( duration peak value (nT) relative mass value* impact longitudes and time zones:

main impact region (longitude)

mainCME impact region first day strongest Earthquake magnitude new volcano eruptions or signif. activity increase Earthquake data -EMSC (day 2) Earthquake data - EMSC(day 3) electronic disturbances others remarks after effects on geomagnetical field
12 not significant                                      
11 2011

JULY-18

UTC

weak p*- CME

 

(C flare) not register or qualified by NOAA July- 19- 6:00 UTC 15: 30 UTC

11- 20 UTC

(15° E- 120° W

9 h 132 nT 144 UTC - 3/ 4 45° W Europe Atlantik USA East Greenland part of S America

M 6.1 - KYRGYZSTAN - 2011-07-19 19:35 UTC

CLEVELAND- 201120

AMBRYM

M 6.0 - SOLOMON ISLANDS - 2011-07-20 22:05 UTC M 6.0 - FIJI REGION - 2011-07-22 06:56 UTC jet stream by CH? Coronal hole CH 466 in Earth facing position geomagnetic disturbances lasted until July- 23- 6:00 UTC

intensive heavy weathers and rainfalls in Europ( mainly Germany)

Heatwave in the US

 

p*

= Partial impact

h*=

Holo ( Earth directed)

                             
 

INITIAL CME EVENT ON SUN:

                       

event Nr.

DATE

YEAR- MONTH- DAY

event

strength of flare causing this CME

appr. eruption TIME ( UTC)

CME description

region report:

Sun spot number

solar flux

PAI

solar wind speed

anticipated CME impact time ( NOAA)     remarks:

Event Nr. 11

event Nr. 12

12 2011 JULY-18 weak South Earth directed CME-(passingby (C flare) not register or qualified by NOAA 6- 6:45 UTC very weak but fast CME- not effective   internal 101^ 103 05

( July- 19)

402 - 711 km/s

      ( Ju- 19) The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on July 19. Solar wind speed ranged between 402 and 711 km/s under the influence of a high speed stream from CH466.
11 2011 JULY-18 weak partial P-CME

(C flare) not register or qualified by NOAA

1:00UTC

weak but fast CME

 

  solen.info 101^ 103 05 335 - 377 km/s JULY 21?     trans equatorial coronal hole

14

JULY- 28- 2010

This large CME was detected by myself later as it was not registered as important by NOAA and solen. info

 

GOEShp>
  2011                                          

event Nr.

DATE

YEAR- MONTH- DAY

event strength of flare

arrival date GOES/

impact begin GOES-

solar wind speed

main impact time ( UTC) impact range with values above 100 nT peak impact time ( duration peak value (nT) relative mass value* impact longitudes and time zones:

main impact region (longitude)

mainCME impact region first day strongest Earthquake magnitude volcano eruptions Earthquake data -EMSC ( 2) Earthquake data - EMSC(2) electronic disturbances space weather conditions (NOAA) remarks remarks
14 2011-JULY- 28 C flare with associated larger p* CME unknown July- 30- 8:00 UTC 13-16:00 UTC 11:00 UTC- 19:30 UTC 3 h 140 nT 60 UTC+ 4- (ongoing) 15° E - 90 ° W

CENTRAL EUROPE

until USA

M 6.4 - NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN - 2011-07-30 18:53 UTC ( class 2) BBC- July 31/31: Mount Etna volcanic eruption lights up Sicilian night

M 6.8 - NEAR N COAST OF NEW GUINEA, PNG. - 2011-07-31 23:38 UTC

M 6.2 - VANUATU REGION - 2011-07-31 14:34 UTC

  medium-   the event overlapsed a previous weak solar shock on July 29 Allthough it was not Earth directed his CME might had a large medium severe impact . possibly by streaming effects of CH 468
13 2011

JULY-27

UTC

weak p*- CME

 

(C flare) not register or qualified by NOAA JULY 29 6:30 UTC 6.30- 18:30 10:00 UTC- 15:00 UTC 12 120 nT 30 UTC + 6 - UTC-6 30° E- 45° W EASTERN EUROPE-ATLANTIC EASTERN S- AMERICA         low   th events was just an increase in solar wind intensity and caused no gm.disturbances  
 

p*

= Partial impact

h*=

Holo (fully Earth directed)

                             
 

INITIAL CME EVENT ON SUN:

                       

event Nr.

DATE

YEAR- MONTH- DAY

event

strength of flare causing this CME

appr. eruption TIME ( UTC)

CME description

region report:

Sun spot number

solar flux

PAI

solar wind speed

anticipated CME impact time ( NOAA)

remarks:

 

 

satellite images: SoHO archive

 

Sun surface image by SDO/AIA

 
14 2011-JULY- 28 C flare with associated larger CME   21:00 UTC   SW internal        

< image left: A CME ejected from a flare on July- 28 at around 21:00 UTC/ . Either from region 11262 or from behind the visible Sun disc.

This CME is NOT Earth directed. GOES data on July 31/31 will indicate , if it should have any effects on Earth

 

event Nr.

DATE

YEAR- MONTH- DAY

event

strength of flare causing this CME

appr. eruption TIME ( UTC)

CME description

region report:

Sun spot number

solar flux

PAI

solar wind speed

anticipated CME impact time ( NOAA)

remarks:

 

 

satellite images: SoHO archive

 

Sun surface image by SDO/AIA

<< SDO/AIA 335 (blue)

time: 20110727 at 6:15 UTC

13 2011 JULY-27 weak partial P-CME

(C flare) not register or qualified by NOAA

7:00UTC

weak but fast CME

 

SE internal 84^ 107 03  

>a larger CME was associated with a filament eruption on July- 27- appr. 6:00 UTC- in region 11260 at the edge to CH 468 in the NE quadrant

The portion of this CME could have more or less effects on July 30- 31 (estimated arrival time at moderate Sun wind speed)

Event Nr. 13 by: SoHO/LASCO 3- the CME was triggered at JULY- 27 - 7:00 UTC

<< SDO/AIA 335 (blue)

time: 20110727 at 10:30 UTC

 

15

JULY- 31- 2011

(internal report ) A faint CME could be observed on July- 31 after 6:00 UTC on SoHO/ LASCO . The intensity is unknown, as any Earth directed CME becomes only partially visible on SoHO because of the protection shield covering the Sun Disc. So far the CME appears to be rather weak. It will most likely partially impact around August 02.

NOAA and solen.info have not listened this CME as it would be too weak to cause significant effects on the space weather resp the satellites these predictions esp. are made for. But - as just logically imaginable. while just a tiny portion of an CME will strike a satellite the entire CME mass will impact on Earth. Therefore I must consider also weaker Earth directed CMES as effective and capable to cause major damages or disturbances.

 

GOEShp>  
  2011                                          

event Nr.

DATE

YEAR- MONTH- DAY

event strength of flare

arrival date GOES/

impact begin GOES-

solar wind speed

main impact time ( UTC) impact range with values above 100 nT peak impact time ( duration peak value (nT) relative mass value* impact longitudes and time zones:

main impact region (longitude)

mainCME impact region first day strongest Earthquake magnitude volcano eruptions Earthquake data -EMSC ( 2) Earthquake data - EMSC(2) electronic disturbances space weather conditions (NOAA) remarks remarks
15     THIS CME had no significnat effects                  
 

p*

= Partial impact

h*=

Holo (fully Earth directed)

                             
 

INITIAL CME EVENT ON SUN:

                       

event Nr.

DATE

YEAR- MONTH- DAY

event

strength of flare causing this CME

appr. eruption TIME ( UTC)

region report:

Sun activity:

solar wind speed

anticipated CME impact time ( NOAA)      

remarks:

 

 

Sun surface image (1) by SoHO archiv

 

Sun surface image (2)by SoHO archiv

remarks
15 2011-JULY- 31

A faint appearing CME headed Southwards

It will very likely partiallly impact on Earth

C 3,8 region 11261 06:00 UTC

region 11261

South

internal Sun spot number: Solar wind speed ranged between 506 and 652 km/s under the influence of a high speed stream from CH468.

(internal):

AUGUST- 02

     

region 11263 is believed could produce a major flare, maybe even an X class flare

>>the faint CME is only partially visible if it moves towards SoHO because of the protection shield that covers the Sun Disc

128^
solar flux:
128
PAI:
08

 

 
EARTH DIRECTED CME events : single reports/ AUGUST 2011

I

event Nr.

DATE

YEAR- MONTH- DAY

event

strength of flare causing this CME

appr. eruption TIME

region report:

Sun activity:

solar wind speed (km/s)

anticipated CME impact time ( NOAA)

 

remarks:

 

Sun surface image (1) by SoHO archiv

Sun surface image (2)by SoHO archiv

 
   
   
 
GOES hp combined dataplot- AUG- 04- 16- 2011>>

 

     
20 AUGUST- 08- 2011
solen.info; A fast fully halo CME was associated with an X 6.9 flare in region 11263, The flare was associated with weak type II and IV radio sweeps
 
19 AUGUST- 08- 2011
solen.info/ NOAA: August 8: The M3.5 flare in region 11263 produced a fast CME which may be partially Earth directed.
18 AUGUST- 04- 2011

A third very strong and fully holo CME was ejected after a long duration M 9.3 flare in region 11261,at 03:57 UTC on August 4

This flare combined with a correspondant M1.7/1F event shortly afterc in aneighbored region 11263 at 04:32 UTC time. The large CME as visible on SoHo is the largest CME in at least two years or even since the one on Dec- 24- 2004.

17

AUGUST- 03- 2011 : solen.info/ NOAA-, Minor update added at 14:30 UTC on August 3: Region 11261 produced a major M6.0 long duration event peaking at 13:48 UTC, associated with type II and IV radio sweeps. What appears to be another earthbound CME was visible as early as 13:55 UTC in STEREO images. This CME has arrived on AUG- 05- after 18:00 UTC

16

AUGUST- 03- 2011

: solen.info/ NOAA-August 2: An Earth directed CME was observed in LASCO and STEREO images after the LDE in region 11261 peaking at 06:19 UTC. This CME has arrived on AUG- 04-after 22:00 UTC

Note: The software or machine could no more display the values of the solar wind shock caused by arrival of the second CME . The values exceed the graphic!>>>

  2011                                    

event Nr.

DATE

YEAR- MONTH- DAY

event strength of flare

arrival date GOES/

impact begin GOES-

(fluct.)

 

initial values

of first solar wind shock

impact range with values above 100 nT peak impact duration peak value (nT)

relative mass value*

(internal)

main impact range ( above 100 nT)

longitudes

peak impact region (geographic )

duration of geomagnetic fluctuations( vibrations) first day strongest Earthquake magnitude space weather conditions (NOAA 2nd day- Earthquake data -EMSC ( 2) 3rd day Earthquake data - EMSC(2) coincident reports: Volcanism. technical incidents etc. remarks remarks
  AUG 12 another stronger flare ejecting a CME which appeared to have an earth directed flanc occured on Aug 12 after 10.00 UTC from AR 11270 on the Northern hemisphere, but was not listed by NOAA or solen.info.

Newsfeeds by Global volcanism program:

Cleveland on 9 and 13-14 August.

Soputan on 14 August:

AUG- 17:

Sindh (Pakistan) Flooding Follows Cloudbursts Last Week

USA/ New York: record rain falls

(BBC- Aug- 16-incl video): Severe snow storm causes chaos in NZ

 

 
20 AUG- 09

Fast fully Halo CME report: (solen.info)

erupted twords SWW direction

X 6.9/2B

associated with weak type II and IV radio sweeps

Aug- 13

 

 

after 05:00 UTC

 

arrival interfers with previous CME

between UTC +1 and UTC- 11

11:00 UTC- 23.30 UTC 120 nT 120 15° E- 165° W

EUROPE WEST- ATLANTIC- NORTH & SOUTH AMERICA, CAN, ALA/ PACIFIC

 

NOAA obviously had not listed this aas an halo CME solen. info reported after: the CME was just faint and had almost no measurable impact on Earth (?)

DUKONO- two eruptions on August- 12

MARAPI- two eruptions on Aug- 09

M 6.1 - EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN - 2011-08-11 18:22 UTC

NEW eruptions on POPOCATEPETL ( Aug 09)

LOKON-EMPUNG

( red alert- Aug-08)

KARANGETANG ( red alert- Aug-08)

KIRISHIMA( yellow alert = activeAug-08)
 
19 AUG- 08 wek partially Earth directed CME M 3.5 AUG- 11

03:00 UTC

no measurable due to magnetopause 11:00- 23:00 UTC 12 hrs 112 nT 65

between 15° East and 165° West

EASTERN EUROPE- ATLANTIC- AMERICA NORTH & SOUTH- ALASKA

 

 

---    

CME impact was rather weak

level 1-2

18 AUG- 04 FULLY HALO CME M 9.3 AUG- 05 22:00 UTC

highest!

> 200* nT!

22- 24:00 UTC 02 h 205 nT 112 150°W- 180°W

USA/ CANADA, ALASKA-EAST PACIFIC

         
17 AUG- 03 Earth directed HALO CME M 6.0 AUG- 04 22:00 UTC

100- 125 nT

22- 24:00 UTC 02 h 125 nT 25 150°W- 180°W USA/ CANADA, ALASKA-EAST PACIFIC

AUG 05- 16:00UTC

AUG- 07- 10:00UTC=

42 hours

none yet

plates are still too hot.

 

Soon after 19:00 many storm were reported worldwide:

Germany/ Munich

Hurricane West of Mexico

Hurricane caribic

16 AUG- 02- Earth directed CME (partially?) M 1,6
AUG- 04

 

16:00 UTC

 

not really significant               (spiegel.de/ Aug- 15):Nach Extrem-Regen: Riesige Kreidebrocken stürzen auf Rügen an den Strand
 

p*

= Partial impact

h*=

Holo (fully Earth directed)

" exceeding the GOES data chart!! We should give solar geomagnetic Storms also names as we do it with terrestrical storms. Due to its high load of shadowing energetic protons (proton flux values rose up to extreme heights after CME 1 impacted while all othere values dropped ) i give this one the name PERSEPHONIA  
 

INITIAL CME EVENT ON SUN:

                       

event Nr.

DATE

YEAR- MONTH- DAY

event

strength of flare causing this CME

appr. eruption TIME

region report:

Sun activity:

solar wind speed (km/s)

anticipated CME impact time ( NOAA)

 

remarks:

 

Sun surface image (1) by SoHO archiv

Sun surface image (2)by SoHO archiv

 
20 AUG- 09

Fully Halo CME ( fast)

erupted twords SWW direction

X 6.9/2B

associated with weak type II and IV radio sweeps

08: 05 UTC

 

 

AR* 11263

solen/ NOAA

and internal

Sunspot Nr.

between

466 and 616

 

AUG 10-11

<< watch these CMEs on my latest youtube video:

<<solar X6.5 flare unleashes 5. CME within one week hurling down to Earth! click to enlarge

<SoHo LASCO 3- at 11:18 UTC-

the "foggy" CME cloud is spreading out into space- much of it heading towards Earth.

54
Solar Flux
97

>> SoHo LASCO 3- 9:06 UTC- the large CME appeared shortly after 9:00 UTC at the edges of LASCO`s protection shield. The CME eruption from an X 6.5 class flare had already occured at 8: 05 UTC. the intensive x ray radiation emmited from the gamma ray activity around AR 11263 hit the lens wih the speed of light causing significant white stripes- an indicator that the CME is fully halo. >>

PAI*
09
19 AUG- 08 PARTIAL (?) EARTH DIRECTED CME

M 3.5

associated with type II and IV radio sweeps

18: 10 UTC

 

 

AR* 11263

solen/ NOAA

and internal

 

between

451 - 588

AUG 9- 10

video below::

from my youtube channel:

pictures and slide shows by NASA`s Sun observers SDO SoHO and STEREO of the three CMEs on Aug 02-03 and 0

STEREO AHEAD/ CORE 2 at 20: 09 UTC STEREO AHEAD/ CORE 2 at 18: 24 UTC >> SoHo LASCO 3 after 18:00 UTC Another weak CME was ejected from AR11263 in the SW quadrant mainly in the radial direction. A small portion could hit the Earth on Aug 10
Sunspot Nr.
80
Solar Flux
101
PAI*
10
18 AUG- 04 FULLY HALO CME M 9.3

03: 57 UTC

and

4: 32 UTC

 

11261

and 11263

solen/ NOAA

and internal

Sunspot Nr.

between

317 and 366 km/s.

AUG 5- 7

August- 02: active regions ( solen.info)

Just after the funnel cloud of the large, but slow moving CME on August- 03 ( 14: 42 UTC) had spread into space, on Aug- 04- 4:32 UTC another even larger M 9.3 event flamed up in region 11261 unleashing another fully holo CME into space ( image 2)

 

(1)

(2)

a second CME cloud became visibly after 8 UTC on the North. Either a later portion of the first one or associated with C flare after 05 UTC in aneighbored region 11263 corresponding with 11261(2)
 
Solar Flux
 
PAI*
 
17 AUG- 03 Earth directed CME M 6.0 13: 48 11261 solen/ NOAA Sunspot Nr. between 356 and 516 km/s AUG 5- 6

second CME ( event Nr 17)at 14:23 UTC ( img 1>>)

second CME ( event Nr 17)at 15:10 UTC ( img 2>>)

This CME was caused by one of the largest flares in recent times ( M 6.= and will very likerly have major diastrous effects!

/1)

(2)

 

< latest SoHo image taken at time mof this update: the large CME seems to be rather slow and might reach Earth on Aug 05-06

66
Solar Flux
119
PAI*

 

 
EARTH DIRECTED CME events : single reports/ SEPTEMBER 2011

Notes on this data table:

in 2010 I began to examine the coincidences between sun activities and sesimic activities on Earth: The result was:

The coincidences are related not to the sun activity as such but to smaller and larger Coronal mass ejections those hit the Earth ( can also be dense sun wind streams those have similar effects )

event Nr.

ERUPTION DATE

YEAR- MONTH- DAY

event strength of flare

arrival date GOES/

impact begin GOES/ACE

(fluct.)

 

remarks:

peak duration: impact range with values above 100 nT peak value (nT) and duration(UTC)

relative mass value*

(internal)

main impact range ( above 100 nT)

longitudes

peak impact region (geographic )

duration of geomagnetic fluctuations( vibrations) first day strongest Earthquake magnitude space weather conditions (NOAA 2nd day- Earthquake data -EMSC ( 2) Earthquake data - EMSC(2) coincident reports: Volcanism. technical incidents etc.

remarks

VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES:

 
Aug- 26- 30: several smaller CMEs and steady sun wind streams from CH 477 sent constantly sund wind to Earth and prevented tectonic plates from cooling down.                      

OCT- 10- 2011:

GAUA (Banks Islands) set on red alert ( 1 of 4)

LOKON-EMPUNG ( Sulawesi islands) was set on yellow alert on Oct- 11:

(Sep- 27)POPOCATEPETL México swet ojn red alert

(Sep- 26):VILLARRICA/ CHILE set on red alert

( Sep- 23)LEWOTOBI/Flores Island (Indonesia)was set on alert level 2 of 4A new phase of a volcanic Earthquake swarm in 10 km depth
of the shield volcano was registered today on El Hierro- Canary islands/ Spain : At time of this update 8 tremors were registered by EMSC alone between 7: 58 and 9:53 UTC
with new magnitudes heights between M 2.5 and M 3.4 - CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION -09:32 UTC
32 Sep- 24 fully halo with Earth directed parts M 7.1 Sep- 26-16:00 UTC   16:30- 21:00 UTC 175 nT 150 longitudes 65° W- 135° W MID ATLANTIC - USA and SW PACIFIC appr 18:00 UTC- 20:00 UTC at 170 nT      
31 Sep- 24 fully halo with Earth directed parts X1.9 2B Sep- 26-11:00 UTC 11:00 UTC     11- 16:30 UTC 190 nT 225 longitudes 15° E- 65° W WESTERN EUROPE AND ATLANTIC, SOUTHERN AMERICA appr. 3 hours ( 11:00 - 3:00 UTC) at 190 nT        
30 Sep- 22   X 1.4/2N SEP- 25/ 11:00 UTC 11:00     11- 24 UTC

15:30- 17:30 UTC:

140 nT

220 longitude 60°- 80 W AMERICA NORTH AND SOUTH/ S/W- PACIFIC          
29 SEP- 19 partial halo CME C 2.4                            
28 SEP- 15   partially Earth directed M Flare in AR 11286                       assorted Earth quakes ( all above 6.0 global) in Sep- 2011:> M 6.8 - SIKKIM, INDIA - 2011-09-18 12:40 UTC M 6.0 - VANUATU - 2011-09-11 23:37 UTC  
27 Sep- 14   full Earth directed halo CME C 2.9                         M 5.6 - NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN - 2011-09-17 07:33 UTC Earthquake M 4.3 - THE NETHERLANDS - 2011-09-08 19:02 UTC/ borderregion Germany Netherlands near Eindhoven  
26 Sep- 10   CME with Earth directed parts filament eruption along NW edge of CH 475                         M 6.6 - NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN - 2011-09-16 19:26 UTC EARTHQUAKES ABOVE M 6.0 ON SEP- 02: ( byEMSC/ USGS)  
25 Sep 09   WEAK with E directed parts                           M 6.1 - NEAR ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS - 2011-09-14 18:10 UTC M 6.9 - FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS  
24 2011- SEP- 07   WEAK/ HALO impulsive X1.8                      

M 6.2 - NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN - 2011-09-15 08:00 UTC(

M 6.0 - CUBA REGION- 2011 September 15 08:43:07 UTC. (EMSC: M 5.4 )

M 6.5 - SANTIAGO DEL ESTERO, ARGENTINA - 2011-09-02 13:47 UTC due to the instruments, this CME seems mainkly to consists out of Neutrons. the NEUTRON values rose since the first parts of this CME arrived from + 3 % to 5 % , while ACE electrones and Protons were still low at time of this update
22 2011- SEP- 06   weak full core CME X 1.2 flare SEP- 10- 2011 9:00 UTC   10- 21 UTC 170 nT 630 UTC+ 2- UTC-9 EUROPE AFRICA AMERICA       M 7.2 - FIJI REGION - 2011-09-15 19:31 UTC    
21 2011- SEP- 06   strong possible almost full core CME M5/B1 with FII and IV radio sweeps.

SEP- 09- 2011

)

2:30 ( first parts   11: 30 - 17:00 UTC 195 nT 475   EUROPE AFRICA AMERICA     M 6.5 - TONGA - 2011-09-22 23:07 UTC M 6.1 - NEAR N COAST OF NEW GUINEA, PNG. - 2011-09-12 22:44 UTC    
 

p*

= Partial impact

h*=

Holo (fully Earth directed)

" exceeding the GOES data chart!! We should give solar geomagnetic Storms also names as we do it with terrestrical storms. I give this one the name EARTHBUSTER  
 

INITIAL CME EVENT ON SUN:

                       

inernal event Nr.

DATE

YEAR- MONTH- DAY

event

strength of flare associated with CME

appr. eruption TIME

active region appr. Sun surface coordinates: radial direction / planetary/sideric  

Sun activity:

solar wind speed (km/s)

anticipated CME impact time ( NOAA)

remarks ( data particularly by solen.info)

 

Sun surface image (1) by STEREO AHEAD

Sun surface image (2)by STEREO BEHIND

Sun surface image (3)by: SDO /AIA/ Composite

alt.: SoHO LASCO 2/ 3

32 Sep- 24 fully halo with Earth directed parts M 7.1 SEP- 24 13:20 AR 11302 75°- 60° E CAPRICORNUS/ AQUARIUS          
31 Sep- 24 fully halo with Earth directed parts X1.9 2B Sep 24- 09:41 AR 11302 75°- 60° E CAPRICORNUS/ AQUARIUS        
30 Sep- 22   X 1.4/2N 11:02 UTC AR 11302 75°- 60° E SAGITTARIUS        
29 SEP- 19 partial halo CME C 2.4 4:59 UTC                      
28 SEP- 15   partially Earth directed   00:15 UTC AR 11296 90°- 75 ° E PISCES                
27 Sep- 14   full Earth directed halo CME C 2.9 00:05 UTC AR 11289 0° W/ 20 ° N AQUARIUS/ PISCES                
26 Sep- 10   CME with Earth directed parts filament eruption along NW edge of CH 475 0:59 ZRC NW edge of CH 475 0- 15° W AQUARIUS/ PISCES                
25 Sep 09   WEAK with E directed parts   after 7:00 UTC ar 11283 60° - 75° W PISCES                
24 2011- SEP- 07   WEAK/ HALO impulsive X1.8 22: 38 UTC ar 11283 45° - 60° W PISCES                
23 2011- SEP- 07   stronger halo CME with Earth directed parts major impulsive X1.8 at 22:38 UTC 22:00 UTC ar 11283 30- 45° ° E/ 15 ° N PISCES     rather low SEP 10- 11 September 7: Lots of CMEs were observed during the day, most were backsided. The CME associated with the X1.8 event in region 11283 may cause a flank impact at Earth on September 10 resulting in a brief increase in disturbance levels.
22 2011- SEP- 06   weak full core CME X 1.2 flare 22: 20 UTC ar 11283 15°- 30° ° E/ 15 ° N AQUARIUS     352 - 391 km/s SEP 08- 09 A wider CME was observed following the X2 flare. This CME will likely impact Earth, probably arriving during the latter half of September 9.
21 2011- SEP- 06   strong possible almost full core CME M5/B1 with FII and IV radio sweeps. 0.50 UTC ar 11283 0° E/ 15 ° N

fully EARTH directed/

AQUARIUS

(appr 20° in true size division) / appr 15° in 360° division
    351 - 431 km/s SEP 07- 08

The fast CME was observed on Sep- 06 after 1:50 UTC, associated with a M 5/B1 flare fast CME occured while ar 11283 had rotated to the coordinates 0° E/15° N as the optimal effective Earth facing position, any CME could have to impact with its full force on Earth!

For the impact of this CME I want to issue a highest 3* alert.

   
 
EARTH DIRECTED CME events : single reports/ OCTOBER 2011

OCTOBER- 2011

  notices: for a better overview I changed - from October 2011 on the table into a form of a calendar
   

    ^^ unfortunately something unintened happened to the picture and it had sudddenly a very bad resolution... ^^ I don`t know what it was ! I will have to make it another time.
event Nr date ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION ON SUN TODAY (longitude)

l CME TYPE

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- CLASS ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

CME ARRIVAL (GOES)

ARRIVAL longitude time/ longitudes/ values> 100 nT main impact longitude * internal relative mass value* peak values at longitude/region or time peak value ( magnetic density )*

today`s volcano activities

yellow

today`s volcano activities

red alerts*

today`s Earthquakes > M 6.0 other significant events*:
33b 01 11302 46°- 61° W (N 13°) SEP-28 OCT-01/ 8:44 UTC C 4.1 PISCES OCT- 04/ 11:00 UTC                    
33a   11305 12°- 27° W (12° N) SEP-30

OCT-01/ 9:58 UTC

M1.2/2N

PISCES

OCT-05/12:00UTC 12:00- 23:00 0° W- 165°W   220

ATLANTIC- CANADA

140 nT        
    11305     SEP- 30/ 19:06

M1.0/1F

PISCES                      
                                     
34 02 11305 25°- 40° W (12° N) SEP-30

OCT- 02/ 0:56 UTC

M3.9/1N

PISCES

OCT-06/ 9:00 UTC 9:00 - 21:00 UTC( interfered with previous one) 45° W- 135° E   240 EASTERN EUROPE & AFRICA- CNTR USA and SOUTH AMERICA 140nT        
> SAT> OCT- 01- 2011 CME/ AR 11302 after 08:44 UTC OCT- 02-2011: 9. 58 UTC CME IN AR 11305 >>    
   
    STEREO- "Ahead" STEREO- "Ahead" STEREO-"Behind" STEREO- "Ahead" STEREO- "Ahead" STEREO-"Behind" SDO /AIA SDO /AIA
                                   
  03                                    
35 04 11302 85°- 99° W (N 13°) SEP-28 OCT-04/ 14:00 UTC C 7.3 PISCES OCT-08- 11:00 UTC   11:00- 22:00 UTC 15° W-90° W 137 CNTR EUROPE- USA/EAST ( incl SOUTH AMERICA 155 nT        
    11305 52°- 66° W (12° N) SEP-30 OCT-04/ 23:30 not listed M flare  

OCT- 08/9:00 UTC

          > 140 nT!        
  05 11309 42° - 28° E(23°N) OCT-07 OCT- 05/ after 5:00 UTC weak C flare

PISCES

                     
> SAT> OCT- 05 after 3:00 UTC . The CME/ AR 11309 C 9.1 flare/ AR 11313/ CME after 12:42 UTC            
         

SHIVELUCH

KRAKATAU/ Indonesia

VILLARRICA Central Chile

   
    STEREO-"AHEAD" STEREO-"AHEAD" SoHO STEREO-"AHEAD" 20111005- Borneo Post-Warning status for Anak Krakatau ( "Child of Krakatau")   KATLA    
  06                                 M 6.2 - JUJUY, ARGENTINA - 2011-10-06 11:12 UTC
                                    M 5.6 - REYKJANES RIDGE - 2011-10-06 00:39 UTC
  07                                  
                                    M 6.1 - SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS - 2011-10-07 08:58 UTC
  08                               CLEVELAND/Aleutians ATLANTIC: -Hurricane Philippe
                                  Mt. ETNA/ Italy    
  09 BBC- Oct- 09- 2011: Thousands evacuate Thailand flood-hit areas   BBC- Oct- 09- 2011:Two storms head for Mexico   GAUA (Banks Islands    
  10                                  
  11                               LOKON-EMPUNG ( Sulawesi islands) Hurricane " Jova landfall/ Mexico
                                MARAPI/ Sumatra SANGUAY( Ecuador)    
  12              

(BBC- Oct- 12-2011) Hurricane Jova hits Mexico's Pacific coast

Tropical storm “Ramon” [Banyan] claimed its first fatality

  Subsea Volcanic Eruption Underway Near El Hierro    
  13              

(Reuthers ) UPDATE 8-Hurricane Jova hits key Mexican port, kills four(BBC)- Bali earthquake: 'Fifty hurt' as powerful tremor strikes

    M 6.1 - SOUTH OF BALI, INDONESIA - 2011-10-13 03:16 UTC
  14              

Bangkok floods: Thai capital fights to hold back waters

Cambodia floods kill over 200 people since September

    M 6.7 - EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G. - 2011-10-14 03:35 UTC
                  Floods and landslides leave 40 dead in Central America    

M 6.0 - AMURSKAYA OBLAST', RUSSIA - 2011-10-14 06:10 UTC

  15                                    
  16 ACTIVE REGION

LOCATION ON SUN TODAY (longitude)

l CME TYPE

*CME ERUPTION TIME UTC

FLARE- CLASS ASS. WITH CME: SIDERIC DIRECTION OF CME:

CME ARRIVAL (GOES)

ARRIVAL longitude time/ longitudes/ values> 100 nT main impact longitude * internal relative mass value* peak values at longitude/region or time peak value ( magnetic density )*

today`s volcano activities

yellow

today`s volcano activities

red alerts*

today`s Earthquakes > M 6.0 other significant events*:
  17                                    
  18               Thailand floods: Bangkok 'impossible to protect'     M 6.0 - NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G. - 2011-10-18 05:05 UTC
  19               (BBC- Oct 19-2011)Floods cause turmoil across Central America     M 5.5 - SOUTHERN IRAN - 2011-10-19 02:52 UTC
  20                                 M 7.4 - KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION - 2011-10-21 17:57 UTC
                                  M 6.1 - HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION - 2011-10-21 08:02 UTC
  21                                    
36 22 11327 02°- 16°W 19° S   OCT- 21- after 14:00 ITC not listed NORTH/ VIRGO Oct- 25 after 14:00 UTC 30° W 30° W- 150° W 15° - 90° W 112 ATLANTIC/ S- AMERICA / N- AMERICA 125        
37   NORTHERN POLAR CH long duration filament eruption OCT- 21/ after 14: 30 NORTH OCT- 24/ 7:00 UTC              

38

  NORTHERN POLAR CH

Oct- 22/ 10:00 UTC

NORTH OCT- 24- after 18:00 UTC            
> SAT> 20111021-14:32 UTC 20111021-22:09 UTC - 20111022-02:30 UTC 20111022-02:39 UTC 20111022- 03:45 UTC SoHO- 20111022- 5:54 UTC    
   
    STEREO- "Ahead" STEREO- "Ahead" SoHO STEREO- "Ahead" STEREO- "Ahead" SoHO SDO /AIA SDO /AIA
  23                                 Magnitude 7.2 - EASTERN TURKEY2011 October 23 10:41:21 UTC
  24               (BBC-20111024)Dublin on emergency footing as floods cause chaos        
  25               TV-Störung in München: Hunderttausende betroffen BEZYMIANNY( Kamchatka SANTA MARIA Guatemala ATLANTIC: Cat. 1 Hurricane Rina
    note: the following activity ( nr 39/a- d...)created a more or less constant sun wind stream with some minor " puff"- like eruptions in between until November 3 . Impact regions therefore were not to be specified as the sun sind stream stream was also going on over almost one weak and impacted more or less globally with just some regions affected more than others.   TUNGURAHUA ( Ecuador    
39 a 26 NORTHERN POLAR CH continuing activity OCT- 26- after 9: 23 UTC     (foxnews.com/20111020) volcano Uturuncu/ Bolivia: Rapidly Inflating Volcano Creates Growing Mystery LOKON-EMPUNGSulawesi
> SAT> 20111026/ 12:09 UTC 20111026/ 15: 24 UTC 20111017/ 13: 24 UTC 20111017/ 15: 24 UTC 20111027/ 13:25 UTC 20111026/ 9:24 UTC 20111026-11:58 UTC 20111027/ 1152 UTC
   
    STEREO- "Ahead" STEREO- "Ahead" STEREO- AHEAD STEREO- AHEAD SoHO SDO /AIA SDO /AIA SDO /AIA
              (Euronews.net- 20111027)/Deadly floods hit Italy DUKONO /Indonesia CERRO HUDSON /Southern Chile    
              wallstreet jourmal- 20111027: Floods Spread to Myanmar BATU TARA/Indo,esia      
39 b 27 NORTHERN POLAR CH continuing activity OCT- 27 after 11:50 UTC     (Chinese academy of sciences)Glacial fluctuations and its impacts on lakes in the southern Tibetan Plateau        
  28                                 M 7.0 - NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU - 2011-10-28 18:54 UTC
39c 29 NORTHERN POLAR CH continuing activity more material was ejected     (Washington Post- 20111019)Peru quake destroys 134 homes, injures dozens  
> SAT> (1) 20111028/ 6:39 UTC (2) 20111028/ 21:09 UTC (3) 20111029 / 9: 35 UTC (4) 20111028/ 6:30 UTC 20111029/0 :30 UTC      
       
    STEREO- AHEAD STEREO- AHEAD STEREO- AHEAD SoHO- LASCO C3 later event( backside flare)   SDO /AIA SDO /AIA
  30               ( BBC-20111030)Early snowstorm hits US East Coast killing at least six        
                  ( BBC-20111030)Early snowstorm hits US East Coast killing at least six        
  31                      
                                  jj    
                                * the volcano names are linked to regional maps on my website where you find specific informations    
                                       
 
NOTE I have changed my archive system because of the high data load,. Click here to get to the CME tracking reports from November 2011 on
 
 

 

SOLAR CONTROL

SOLAR DATA GRAPHS ( click on the charts to enlarge)

 

This report is based on data of the following institutes:

NAME

EMSC

NOAA

solen.info

SOHO

others:

various

CHARTS>
             
  click here, if the chart should not appear on this site     Refresh, if this graph does not appear or click on: NOAA  
ITEMS> SUN SPOT NUMBER (Sp) SOLAR FLUX: (SF) CME ( CORONAL MASS EJECTION ABOUT " PLANETARY A INDEX" (PAI): HOLO" CME The 11 year SOLAR CYCLE
EXPLANATIONS>>

ABOUT SUN SPOTS (Sp)

ABOUT :

ABOUT CME:

ABOUT " PLANETARY A INDEX" (PAI):

A " HOLO" CME is a ( greek word) "fully/ total/ whole Earth directed coronal mass ejection from the Sun

X-ray Flux

x ray flux measured in W·m−2 (watt per square metre =power emitted from a surface.

 

 

appendix:

 

 

 

   

Collection of interesting links to solar cycle - Sun activity and other :

       
NASA/ SDO latest image from the Sun surface>>

Current view onto the Sun surface (image: NASA SOHO solar observatory in different light filter)

click here to get to the NASA/ SDO website with the current live picture of the Sun
 

OTHER SOLAR SPACERCRAFTS:

NASA- about the solar 11 years cycle

NASA STEREO WEBSITE

image NASA "Stereo" are two space crafts observing the sun from opposite direction to create an image of the entire Sun

pdf ( Max Planck/ Aeronomie) Steuert die Sonne das Erdklima?
Max Planck Computersimulation von Sonnenflecken
 
NASA: Solar iridiance NASA-SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory)

IMAGES FROM NASA ARCHIVES::

SOLAR NEWS:

NASA/ video of "Solar Tsunami" (2007) CNN- FEB- 16- 2011: Scientists, telescope hunt massive hidden object in space
NASA: Sun in 3 D

assorted material and common stories :

 

strange stories:

 

You tube user claim, NASA would censor the publications , since they had discovered strange objects on the edges of the images ( click here for a youtube video that shows those strange objects )
related institutes:  
American Astronomic Society

 

 

ARCHIVES and previous EVALUATIONS:

  Elder archives:

 

< Volcano Disaster Archive 2010  
correlations of sun activity to Earthquake and volcanism- archive 2010  
<< click here, to get informations, news reports archives with maps, links, videos of earthquake disasters 2010
 

 

 

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